WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.660 Welcome to another deep dive. You know, every 00:00:02.660 --> 00:00:05.019 single day we're just swimming in this huge ocean 00:00:05.019 --> 00:00:07.519 of information. Our goal here is really to be 00:00:07.519 --> 00:00:10.320 your chart, kind of cut through that noise, and 00:00:10.320 --> 00:00:12.279 pull out the essential bits of knowledge you 00:00:12.279 --> 00:00:14.820 actually need to stay informed. Today we're plunging 00:00:14.820 --> 00:00:17.719 into this really fascinating mix. We've got international 00:00:17.719 --> 00:00:20.579 diplomacy, some high stakes domestic policy, 00:00:21.120 --> 00:00:24.280 and the shifting sands of political power. We 00:00:24.280 --> 00:00:26.100 spend a lot of time digging through headlines, 00:00:26.320 --> 00:00:28.800 reports, analyses, trying to pull out the most 00:00:28.800 --> 00:00:31.379 crucial insights for you. Yeah, what's really 00:00:31.379 --> 00:00:33.340 exciting is just the range of stuff we're looking 00:00:33.340 --> 00:00:36.820 at. I mean, everything from leaked plans to economic 00:00:36.820 --> 00:00:39.100 projections, detailed polling data. We're going 00:00:39.100 --> 00:00:40.560 to try and connect these dots for you. Hope you 00:00:40.560 --> 00:00:42.340 see the bigger picture. Give you a shortcut, 00:00:42.380 --> 00:00:45.079 really, to understanding these pretty intricate 00:00:45.079 --> 00:00:47.899 issues. OK, so our mission for this deep dive. 00:00:48.439 --> 00:00:51.560 Let's peel back the layers, uncover the surprising 00:00:51.560 --> 00:00:53.560 connections, maybe the underlying strategies 00:00:53.560 --> 00:00:55.460 playing out across these things that seem totally 00:00:55.460 --> 00:00:58.710 separate. Let's jump in. All right, kicking off 00:00:58.710 --> 00:01:00.969 with something pretty unexpected. Donald Trump 00:01:00.969 --> 00:01:05.390 apparently got royal treatment recently from 00:01:05.390 --> 00:01:08.290 an actual king. Now that's not something you 00:01:08.290 --> 00:01:11.069 hear every day, right? How does a real monarch 00:01:11.069 --> 00:01:13.609 fit into top level international diplomacy? Right, 00:01:13.629 --> 00:01:15.590 so this all happened around the NATO meeting. 00:01:15.769 --> 00:01:18.430 The chief, Mark Rett, you know, the very skilled 00:01:18.430 --> 00:01:21.129 former Dutch PM, he came up with this, let's 00:01:21.129 --> 00:01:23.430 say, unique strategy to handle Trump. The meeting 00:01:23.430 --> 00:01:25.430 was in The Hague, where King Willem Alexander 00:01:25.430 --> 00:01:27.530 of the Netherlands lives. Red apparently asked 00:01:27.530 --> 00:01:29.730 the king to, you know, roll out the red carpet. 00:01:30.209 --> 00:01:31.890 So Trump didn't just dine with the king and queen. 00:01:31.930 --> 00:01:34.569 He actually stayed overnight in the palace. Wow. 00:01:34.689 --> 00:01:37.129 Overnight. Yeah, it's apparently an incredibly 00:01:37.129 --> 00:01:39.590 rare honor. First time ever a U .S. president 00:01:39.590 --> 00:01:42.349 has been a house guest there. An honor denied 00:01:42.349 --> 00:01:45.269 to Obama and Biden, interestingly. And reports 00:01:45.269 --> 00:01:47.370 say the royal couple were told to flatter Trump 00:01:47.370 --> 00:01:51.290 endlessly. Also, maybe not a coincidence, the 00:01:51.290 --> 00:01:54.590 three young, attractive princesses. They weren't 00:01:54.590 --> 00:01:57.670 home that night. OK, so why? Why go through all 00:01:57.670 --> 00:02:00.049 that? Such an unusual, almost theatrical approach. 00:02:00.569 --> 00:02:04.489 What was the strategic aim behind this royal 00:02:04.489 --> 00:02:06.989 charm offensive? Well, the main goal seems to 00:02:06.989 --> 00:02:09.050 have been softening Trump up for the tough part. 00:02:09.370 --> 00:02:11.889 The talks on defense spending. Trump's really 00:02:11.889 --> 00:02:13.909 pushing European countries to spend more on their 00:02:13.909 --> 00:02:16.430 own defense. Now, many are willing, but the details 00:02:16.430 --> 00:02:18.810 are tricky. Root's language to Trump is apparently 00:02:18.810 --> 00:02:22.900 quite mushy. Vague on details, vague on the timeline. 00:02:23.139 --> 00:02:24.599 Spain, for example, they're really pushing back 00:02:24.599 --> 00:02:27.280 against Trump's 5 % goal. Prime Minister Sanchez 00:02:27.280 --> 00:02:29.560 capped it at 2 .1%. Maybe they just don't feel 00:02:29.560 --> 00:02:31.180 the Russian threat is that real for them. It 00:02:31.180 --> 00:02:33.120 says geographically, maybe. Could be. And Macron, 00:02:33.240 --> 00:02:34.919 the French president, he also gently brought 00:02:34.919 --> 00:02:37.500 up Trump's tariffs, the trade war worries, the 00:02:37.500 --> 00:02:40.699 economic damage. OK, so after all the royal treatment, 00:02:41.159 --> 00:02:44.199 what's the bottom line? Did it actually work? 00:02:44.479 --> 00:02:47.060 Did it achieve anything concrete or was it just, 00:02:47.139 --> 00:02:49.419 you know, a clever diplomatic dance that didn't 00:02:49.419 --> 00:02:52.400 change much? Well, reports say Trump got almost 00:02:52.400 --> 00:02:55.020 everything he wanted, but the analysis is it's 00:02:55.020 --> 00:02:58.120 probably not enough long term. The implication 00:02:58.120 --> 00:03:01.740 is that Root, being this extremely skilled diplomat, 00:03:01.979 --> 00:03:03.860 might have just cleverly told Trump what he wanted 00:03:03.860 --> 00:03:06.759 to hear, you know, without really promising huge 00:03:06.759 --> 00:03:09.930 changes. Oh, okay. manage the situation. Exactly. 00:03:10.129 --> 00:03:12.050 Oh, and Trump also had a quick word with President 00:03:12.050 --> 00:03:14.330 Zelensky of Ukraine while he was there. OK, now 00:03:14.330 --> 00:03:16.909 shifting gears a bit, but related to international 00:03:16.909 --> 00:03:19.689 tension, the recent bombing of Iran, here's where 00:03:19.689 --> 00:03:21.610 things get really interesting politically back 00:03:21.610 --> 00:03:24.810 home. Democrats, it looks like, are really struggling 00:03:24.810 --> 00:03:27.069 to find a unified voice on this. Yeah, that's 00:03:27.069 --> 00:03:28.969 a really striking point. And the data shows it. 00:03:29.229 --> 00:03:31.189 Republican voters, it was amazing. Polls showed 00:03:31.189 --> 00:03:33.909 they were strongly against bombing Iran, right 00:03:33.909 --> 00:03:36.389 up until Trump did it. Then, boom, suddenly they 00:03:36.389 --> 00:03:39.330 were for it. Total whiplash. But the Democrats 00:03:39.330 --> 00:03:44.030 seem genuinely at a loss. No clear message. And, 00:03:44.129 --> 00:03:46.750 adding to the confusion, reports are saying Trump's 00:03:46.750 --> 00:03:50.110 claim that they obliterated Iran's nuclear capacity. 00:03:50.250 --> 00:03:52.419 Just completely wrong. Really? So what did it 00:03:52.419 --> 00:03:55.120 do? The analysis suggests it might have set back 00:03:55.120 --> 00:03:58.699 Iran's program by at most a few months. A few 00:03:58.699 --> 00:04:01.719 months. Yeah. After all that, that seems underwhelming. 00:04:01.759 --> 00:04:04.960 It does. Almost ironic given the strong statements 00:04:04.960 --> 00:04:07.159 made. And you can see that democratic disarray 00:04:07.159 --> 00:04:09.840 playing out very publicly, right? Like Hakeem 00:04:09.840 --> 00:04:11.620 Jeffries, the House Minority Leader, he says, 00:04:12.460 --> 00:04:14.539 no president should unilaterally march us into 00:04:14.539 --> 00:04:17.339 war. Right. With erratic threats and no strategy. 00:04:17.720 --> 00:04:20.519 Strong words. But then. Almost immediately, Steny 00:04:20.519 --> 00:04:22.300 Hoyer, the former number two Democrat, comes 00:04:22.300 --> 00:04:25.399 out and calls the strike essential, directly 00:04:25.399 --> 00:04:27.399 contradicting Jeffries. Exactly. And you had 00:04:27.399 --> 00:04:29.319 Richie Torres kind of summing it up as widely 00:04:29.319 --> 00:04:31.060 varied views and Chrissy Hulahan just saying, 00:04:31.300 --> 00:04:33.339 this is a complicated one. You also heard Jim 00:04:33.339 --> 00:04:35.860 McGovern saying, I don't think Trump has a clue 00:04:35.860 --> 00:04:38.800 what the hell he's doing. I get whiplash. Even 00:04:38.800 --> 00:04:40.899 Seth Moulton criticized the Republicans for their 00:04:40.899 --> 00:04:43.740 disunity. But it really feeds that Democrats 00:04:43.740 --> 00:04:46.300 in disarray narrative. Makes you think of that 00:04:46.300 --> 00:04:49.019 old line, the duty of the opposition is to oppose. 00:04:49.819 --> 00:04:52.300 Doesn't seem to be happening here. Right. And 00:04:52.300 --> 00:04:54.959 this uncertainty around Iran, it creates a sort 00:04:54.959 --> 00:04:57.800 of vacuum. And it's fascinating who's trying 00:04:57.800 --> 00:05:00.000 to step into it, like the son of the former Shah. 00:05:00.620 --> 00:05:02.699 He's apparently making moves. Yeah, Reza Pahlavi, 00:05:03.040 --> 00:05:05.720 son of the Shah who fled back in 79. The Shah 00:05:05.720 --> 00:05:09.290 himself, his legacy is... Complicated. Some remember 00:05:09.290 --> 00:05:11.750 him as a brutal dictator, sure. But others credit 00:05:11.750 --> 00:05:14.250 him with trying to modernize Iran, build the 00:05:14.250 --> 00:05:16.810 economy, create jobs, pull people out of poverty. 00:05:16.889 --> 00:05:18.490 And women's rights were different then, right? 00:05:18.490 --> 00:05:20.529 Hugely different. Under the Shah, women didn't 00:05:20.529 --> 00:05:22.629 need to be covered. They could drive, go to university, 00:05:22.769 --> 00:05:25.810 have jobs. All that ended with the Ayatollahs. 00:05:25.930 --> 00:05:28.769 But, you know, only people in their 70s or older 00:05:28.769 --> 00:05:31.389 really remember his rule directly. Kind of like 00:05:31.389 --> 00:05:33.370 the generational memory gap with someone like 00:05:33.370 --> 00:05:35.629 Xi Jinping in China. So what's Pahlavi's pitch 00:05:35.629 --> 00:05:38.009 now? How is he trying to appeal to Iranians today? 00:05:38.350 --> 00:05:41.149 He's basically saying to Iranians, OK, if not 00:05:41.149 --> 00:05:43.889 the Ayatollahs, then who? He's framing himself 00:05:43.889 --> 00:05:46.629 as ready to lead this national transition, says 00:05:46.629 --> 00:05:49.149 he has a clear plan. He even put something on 00:05:49.149 --> 00:05:51.209 social media suggesting if the current regime 00:05:51.209 --> 00:05:54.689 can't MIGA make Iran great again, maybe he should 00:05:54.689 --> 00:05:58.029 give it a shot. MIGA, wow. Yeah. Now, the Ayatollahs 00:05:58.029 --> 00:06:01.649 probably think great. Iran was 1 ,400 years ago 00:06:01.649 --> 00:06:04.149 with Mohammed. Pahlavi's definitely thinking 00:06:04.149 --> 00:06:06.750 more like Cyrus the Great, 2 ,600 years ago. 00:06:07.009 --> 00:06:09.290 He definitely has a strong following among Iranians 00:06:09.290 --> 00:06:11.430 living outside Iran, the diaspora. But here's 00:06:11.430 --> 00:06:13.250 the key thing, right? For him to actually make 00:06:13.250 --> 00:06:15.930 a comeback, the Iranian people themselves have 00:06:15.930 --> 00:06:18.490 to rise up. You can't just depose the regime 00:06:18.490 --> 00:06:20.589 with a B -2 bomber. Absolutely not. It has to 00:06:20.589 --> 00:06:23.009 come from within. OK, so from those international 00:06:23.009 --> 00:06:25.430 complexities, let's pivot back home. Domestic 00:06:25.430 --> 00:06:28.329 policy. Huge internal challenges, divisions, 00:06:29.029 --> 00:06:31.269 starting with this new plan for deportations. 00:06:31.670 --> 00:06:34.310 Sounds significant. Yeah. CNN had an exclusive 00:06:34.310 --> 00:06:37.370 on this. It's Donald Trump's new plan to really 00:06:37.370 --> 00:06:40.310 speed up the deportation of hundreds of thousands 00:06:40.310 --> 00:06:43.490 of immigrants. It's a big escalation. The specific 00:06:43.490 --> 00:06:47.449 target is people who came in illegally and then 00:06:47.449 --> 00:06:50.269 applied for asylum while already here. OK. Not 00:06:50.269 --> 00:06:53.649 at the border crossing point. Exactly. That violates 00:06:53.649 --> 00:06:56.050 the usual asylum protocol, which says you should 00:06:56.050 --> 00:06:58.490 apply at a legal entry point. Apparently about 00:06:58.490 --> 00:07:00.990 a quarter million people filed this way. And 00:07:00.990 --> 00:07:02.970 because they filed paperwork, they're considered 00:07:02.970 --> 00:07:07.310 relatively easy to find. So the plan is just 00:07:07.310 --> 00:07:10.230 dismiss all their cases all at once, round them 00:07:10.230 --> 00:07:11.930 up and deport them, even if they've been here 00:07:11.930 --> 00:07:13.970 for years, haven't broken other laws. That seems 00:07:13.970 --> 00:07:16.649 to be the proposal. Dismiss en masse, locate, 00:07:16.709 --> 00:07:18.930 deport. What's the legal justification for that 00:07:18.930 --> 00:07:21.959 kind of sweep? Well, the argument is he has a 00:07:21.959 --> 00:07:25.100 legal leg to stand on because they have essentially 00:07:25.100 --> 00:07:27.879 admitted to a felony by entering illegally when 00:07:27.879 --> 00:07:29.899 they filed that paperwork. But, you know, people 00:07:29.899 --> 00:07:32.779 like Conchita Cruz from the Asylum Seeker Advocacy 00:07:32.779 --> 00:07:34.959 Project, they're arguing strongly against it. 00:07:35.399 --> 00:07:37.779 They say every case deserves individual judicial 00:07:37.779 --> 00:07:41.319 review based on its own facts. Trump's plan tries 00:07:41.319 --> 00:07:43.639 to bypass that completely. And this focus seems 00:07:43.639 --> 00:07:45.480 quite different from what some other reports 00:07:45.480 --> 00:07:47.560 about ICE have been saying lately, right? Absolutely. 00:07:47.600 --> 00:07:51.050 It's a stark contrast. CBS reported exclusively 00:07:51.050 --> 00:07:55.250 that ICE is currently detaining 59 ,000 immigrants. 00:07:55.389 --> 00:07:58.910 That's way over their official capacity of 41 00:07:58.910 --> 00:08:02.850 ,000. 59 ,000. Yeah. And here's the kicker. Half 00:08:02.850 --> 00:08:05.920 of them have no criminal record. Half. So that 00:08:05.920 --> 00:08:07.660 kind of contradicts the narrative about only 00:08:07.660 --> 00:08:09.939 deporting violent criminals. Directly refutes 00:08:09.939 --> 00:08:13.160 it. And then NBC had an exclusive last September. 00:08:13.959 --> 00:08:16.720 ICE apparently told Congress that 13 ,000 detained 00:08:16.720 --> 00:08:18.600 immigrants were known to have committed murder. 00:08:18.860 --> 00:08:22.500 13 ,000 known murderers. Known, yes. But ICE 00:08:22.500 --> 00:08:25.740 had only arrested 752 of them. That's just 6%. 00:08:25.740 --> 00:08:27.779 It suggests maybe their enforcement focus hasn't 00:08:27.779 --> 00:08:30.160 always been on the most violent offenders. So 00:08:30.160 --> 00:08:32.460 if they're ramping up detentions like this, where 00:08:32.460 --> 00:08:34.279 are they putting everyone? You mentioned capacity 00:08:34.279 --> 00:08:36.950 issues. Right. Well, they're looking at converting 00:08:36.950 --> 00:08:39.789 military bases like Fort Bliss and Texas into 00:08:39.789 --> 00:08:41.730 big holding facilities. And then there's this 00:08:41.730 --> 00:08:44.570 really controversial idea for a facility down 00:08:44.570 --> 00:08:46.830 in the Everglades in Florida. They're calling 00:08:46.830 --> 00:08:50.529 it Alligator Alcatraz. Alligator Alcatraz. Yeah. 00:08:51.129 --> 00:08:53.330 Serious. Seriously. The charming idea is that 00:08:53.330 --> 00:08:56.490 the gators would deter escapes. DHS Secretary 00:08:56.490 --> 00:08:58.509 Kristi Noem is apparently providing funds for 00:08:58.509 --> 00:09:03.889 it. Environmentalists are... understandably furious. 00:09:04.090 --> 00:09:06.590 And the pace of arrest is definitely picking 00:09:06.590 --> 00:09:09.429 up. Averaging $1 ,200 a day in June, sometimes 00:09:09.429 --> 00:09:12.610 hitting over $2 ,000, reports say ICE agents 00:09:12.610 --> 00:09:15.009 are becoming increasingly indiscriminate, trying 00:09:15.009 --> 00:09:17.720 to hit Stephen Miller's target of 3 ,000 arrests 00:09:17.720 --> 00:09:20.539 a day. 3 ,000 a day. That's the goal. And a new 00:09:20.539 --> 00:09:22.340 trend is that many people are being picked up 00:09:22.340 --> 00:09:24.399 deep inside the country now, not just near the 00:09:24.399 --> 00:09:26.820 border, as agents scramble to meet those daily 00:09:26.820 --> 00:09:29.460 quotas. OK, wow. So amidst all this, we also 00:09:29.460 --> 00:09:32.200 have the one big, beautiful bill act, the OBB, 00:09:32.360 --> 00:09:34.679 this huge Republican policy bill. Sounds like 00:09:34.679 --> 00:09:36.360 it's hitting some serious roadblocks, not out 00:09:36.360 --> 00:09:39.620 of the woods yet. Not even close, it seems. There 00:09:39.620 --> 00:09:42.600 are two really big problems. First, the money. 00:09:43.000 --> 00:09:45.169 The math just isn't working. The Senate version 00:09:45.169 --> 00:09:47.570 is way more expensive than the House version, 00:09:47.889 --> 00:09:50.169 hundreds of billions more. The Joint Committee 00:09:50.169 --> 00:09:53.990 on Taxation, the JCT, says it costs $400 billion 00:09:53.990 --> 00:09:57.250 more. 400 billion. Just the difference. Yeah. 00:09:57.570 --> 00:10:00.450 And get this. If the Senate agrees to the House 00:10:00.450 --> 00:10:03.679 idea of raising the salt deduction cap, to $40 00:10:03.679 --> 00:10:06.200 ,000. That's the state and local tax deduction. 00:10:06.259 --> 00:10:09.740 Right. That alone would add another $350 billion 00:10:09.740 --> 00:10:12.120 to the deficit. So suddenly, the Senate bill 00:10:12.120 --> 00:10:14.820 is $750 billion more expensive than the House 00:10:14.820 --> 00:10:17.299 one. Wow. That massive cost difference could 00:10:17.299 --> 00:10:19.559 easily cause a few House Republicans to vote 00:10:19.559 --> 00:10:21.559 no, and that would kill it right there. OK, so 00:10:21.559 --> 00:10:23.860 the cost is one huge problem. What's the second? 00:10:23.960 --> 00:10:26.559 The second and maybe even bigger problem, voters 00:10:26.559 --> 00:10:29.039 absolutely hate the bill. Yeah. Poll after poll 00:10:29.039 --> 00:10:31.480 shows deep opposition. And what's really telling 00:10:31.480 --> 00:10:33.559 is that the more people learn about it, the less 00:10:33.559 --> 00:10:35.940 they like it. That's not a good sign for proponents. 00:10:36.399 --> 00:10:38.419 Not at all. Look at the numbers. Fox News poll. 00:10:38.940 --> 00:10:43.519 38 % for, 59 % against. Independence, 22 % for, 00:10:43.779 --> 00:10:48.580 73 % against. Quinnipiac, 27 % for, 53 % against. 00:10:48.940 --> 00:10:53.559 KFF, 35 % for, 64 % against. The average across 00:10:53.559 --> 00:10:55.950 the board is, well... pretty deeply underwater, 00:10:56.250 --> 00:10:59.529 around 30 % support, 53 % oppose. That's really 00:10:59.529 --> 00:11:02.549 strong opposition. So why? Why do people dislike 00:11:02.549 --> 00:11:05.080 it so much? digging into those details as stuff 00:11:05.080 --> 00:11:06.879 that maybe isn't getting the headlines. Absolutely. 00:11:06.980 --> 00:11:09.100 That seems to be a huge factor. The bill is being 00:11:09.100 --> 00:11:11.620 called epically regressive, basically a massive 00:11:11.620 --> 00:11:13.960 giveaway to rich people at the expense of ordinary 00:11:13.960 --> 00:11:16.179 people. When you crunch the numbers, the pattern 00:11:16.179 --> 00:11:18.860 is stark. Top 20 % of earners, they gain about 00:11:18.860 --> 00:11:21.759 4 % on average, bottom 20%. They lose about 4 00:11:21.759 --> 00:11:23.759 % on average. So a direct transfer of wealth, 00:11:23.759 --> 00:11:25.600 essentially. It's pretty much a straightforward 00:11:25.600 --> 00:11:27.500 transfer from the bottom fifth to the top fifth. 00:11:27.600 --> 00:11:29.399 And beyond that, there are these, let's call 00:11:29.399 --> 00:11:31.500 them secret items that massively benefit the 00:11:31.500 --> 00:11:33.269 super rich, stuff most people don't even know 00:11:33.269 --> 00:11:36.669 is in there. OK, take the estate tax. It raises 00:11:36.669 --> 00:11:39.549 the amount you can inherit tax -free from $11 00:11:39.549 --> 00:11:42.629 million to $15 million for individuals and $22 00:11:42.629 --> 00:11:45.629 to $30 million for couples. And it's indexed 00:11:45.629 --> 00:11:48.750 to inflation. This literally only helps the richest 00:11:48.750 --> 00:11:52.029 of the rich. We're talking the top 0 .1%. A couple 00:11:52.029 --> 00:11:55.129 with an estate over $30 million, they save about 00:11:55.129 --> 00:11:58.330 $3 .2 million in taxes because of this. $3 .2 00:11:58.330 --> 00:12:00.879 million. Just for them. Just for them. Then there's 00:12:00.879 --> 00:12:02.519 the pass -through -business income tax deduction. 00:12:02.639 --> 00:12:05.000 This is for businesses like law firms, big medical 00:12:05.000 --> 00:12:07.740 practices, where profits pass directly to owners. 00:12:08.240 --> 00:12:10.879 The bill makes the current temporary 20 % deduction 00:12:10.879 --> 00:12:13.480 permanent and bumps it up to 23%. And guess who 00:12:13.480 --> 00:12:16.960 gets most of that? 70 % goes to the top 1 % of 00:12:16.960 --> 00:12:19.759 tax filers. Wow. So those two things alone. Those 00:12:19.759 --> 00:12:22.100 two unknown items. They're projected to save 00:12:22.100 --> 00:12:24.360 the rich over a trillion dollars over 10 years. 00:12:24.539 --> 00:12:27.190 A trillion dollars? Yeah. Plus, it makes the 00:12:27.190 --> 00:12:30.009 current top tax rate of 37 % permanent instead 00:12:30.009 --> 00:12:33.070 of letting it go back to 39 .6%. That benefits 00:12:33.070 --> 00:12:36.659 couples making over $750 ,000 a year. And on 00:12:36.659 --> 00:12:38.659 top of all that, Republicans are cutting IRS 00:12:38.659 --> 00:12:41.440 funding. They're assaulting the IRS, which means 00:12:41.440 --> 00:12:43.960 less enforcement against those shady tax shelter 00:12:43.960 --> 00:12:47.139 type constructions. Who uses those? Wealthy people 00:12:47.139 --> 00:12:49.379 with fancy lawyers. Right. And finally, there's 00:12:49.379 --> 00:12:51.779 what's being called a whack at Obamacare, the 00:12:51.779 --> 00:12:54.720 ACA. It makes it harder to use. Cut subsidies. 00:12:55.259 --> 00:12:57.799 Projections show 10 to 16 million people could 00:12:57.799 --> 00:12:59.879 lose their health insurance. Mostly low income 00:12:59.879 --> 00:13:03.000 folks. OK, so connecting the dots. The message 00:13:03.000 --> 00:13:05.179 seems to be getting out about who really benefits 00:13:05.179 --> 00:13:07.789 and who loses. Is there resistance building within 00:13:07.789 --> 00:13:10.970 Congress, too? Besides just the cost. Oh, yeah. 00:13:11.230 --> 00:13:13.129 It's not just voters. Republican senators are 00:13:13.129 --> 00:13:15.149 getting nervous. They've told Majority Leader 00:13:15.149 --> 00:13:17.250 John Thune they're not ready to vote. Right. 00:13:17.889 --> 00:13:20.029 Senator Tom Tillis from North Carolina. He wants 00:13:20.029 --> 00:13:22.169 big changes to the Medicaid part. He estimates 00:13:22.169 --> 00:13:25.389 his state could lose $38 billion. And he warned 00:13:25.389 --> 00:13:27.669 this bill could cost Republicans both the House 00:13:27.669 --> 00:13:30.789 and Senate in 2026. That's a stark warning from 00:13:30.789 --> 00:13:33.159 within the party. Definitely. And Senator Susan 00:13:33.159 --> 00:13:35.559 Collins from Maine is also worried about cuts 00:13:35.559 --> 00:13:37.779 to payments from some health care programs. And 00:13:37.779 --> 00:13:40.019 then in the House, you mentioned Thomas Massey. 00:13:40.220 --> 00:13:42.159 He sounds like a real problem for Trump on this. 00:13:42.360 --> 00:13:44.679 Yeah. Representative Thomas Massey from Kentucky. 00:13:45.259 --> 00:13:48.419 He's known as a deficit hawk. He doesn't just 00:13:48.419 --> 00:13:51.059 oppose the Senate bill's cost. He's also threatened 00:13:51.059 --> 00:13:53.559 to introduce a resolution to limit the president's 00:13:53.559 --> 00:13:56.769 war powers. Oof. Trump can't like that. Reports 00:13:56.769 --> 00:14:00.269 say Trump is absolutely seething and he's apparently 00:14:00.269 --> 00:14:03.049 going all out now to try and beat Massey in his 00:14:03.049 --> 00:14:06.070 next primary. Can he? Has Massey faced him before? 00:14:06.250 --> 00:14:09.110 He has. And he survived Trump challenges before. 00:14:09.230 --> 00:14:11.309 What's fascinating about Massey, often painted 00:14:11.309 --> 00:14:13.909 as this, you know, fire -breathing right -wing 00:14:13.909 --> 00:14:16.870 dragon, is his background. Grew up in Appalachia, 00:14:16.990 --> 00:14:19.639 Vanceburg, Kentucky. But then went to MIT, got 00:14:19.639 --> 00:14:21.639 degrees in electrical and mechanical engineering. 00:14:22.080 --> 00:14:25.279 MIT. Won prizes for inventions, raised $32 million 00:14:25.279 --> 00:14:27.980 in venture capital for his tech startup, hired 00:14:27.980 --> 00:14:31.120 70 people, holds 24 patents, sold the company 00:14:31.120 --> 00:14:34.519 in 2003. He's definitely not a dumb hillbilly. 00:14:35.700 --> 00:14:38.200 And his district, Kentucky's fourth. It's actually 00:14:38.200 --> 00:14:40.519 the richest district in the state, 87 % white, 00:14:40.639 --> 00:14:45.480 68 % urban. And it's R plus 18, very safely Republican. 00:14:45.639 --> 00:14:48.679 Plus his strong pro -Israel. stance, brings in 00:14:48.679 --> 00:14:50.480 outside money. So yeah, he won't be easy for 00:14:50.480 --> 00:14:52.320 Trump to push over. OK, let's shift one more 00:14:52.320 --> 00:14:54.299 time. Let's look at the overall political climate. 00:14:54.460 --> 00:14:56.179 Some new polling data just came out, right? Gives 00:14:56.179 --> 00:14:59.179 us a snapshot. Yeah, a fresh YouGov poll. And 00:14:59.179 --> 00:15:01.559 this was taken partly after the Iran bombing. 00:15:01.799 --> 00:15:04.019 It shows Donald Trump's approval rating is now 00:15:04.019 --> 00:15:07.639 14 points underwater. 14 points. What are the 00:15:07.639 --> 00:15:11.500 numbers? 40 % approve, 54 % disapprove. That's 00:15:11.500 --> 00:15:14.639 his worst poll during Trump v2 .0. Worse than 00:15:14.639 --> 00:15:17.080 most of his first term, actually. Wow. How does 00:15:17.080 --> 00:15:19.320 that compare to Biden at this stage? It's 23 00:15:19.320 --> 00:15:21.059 points lower than where Biden was at this point 00:15:21.059 --> 00:15:23.159 in his presidency. And for Trump, it's a 19 point 00:15:23.159 --> 00:15:26.179 drop in just five months. That's that's a significant 00:15:26.179 --> 00:15:28.960 slide. Not a good trend for him at all. Did the 00:15:28.960 --> 00:15:31.580 Iran bombing itself move those numbers or just 00:15:31.580 --> 00:15:33.720 part of the trend? Well, the poll did break down 00:15:33.720 --> 00:15:35.940 responses before and after the bombing. It really 00:15:35.940 --> 00:15:38.379 shows that partisan split we talked about before 00:15:38.379 --> 00:15:40.500 the bombing. Fifty seven percent of Republicans 00:15:40.500 --> 00:15:43.240 approved of Trump's handling of the Iran Israel 00:15:43.240 --> 00:15:48.090 situation after. jumped to 82%. Huge. But Democrats, 00:15:48.629 --> 00:15:51.269 56 % did not want him to bomb Iran beforehand. 00:15:51.429 --> 00:15:55.129 After he did, 74 % disapproved. So the action 00:15:55.129 --> 00:15:57.269 itself just instantly hardened the partisan lines. 00:15:57.590 --> 00:15:59.929 Interesting. The poll also found the split within 00:15:59.929 --> 00:16:02.809 the Republican base itself. 48 % want America 00:16:02.809 --> 00:16:05.909 active in world affairs, but 31 % lean isolationist. 00:16:06.210 --> 00:16:08.529 Even though Trump mostly ran as an isolationist. 00:16:09.539 --> 00:16:11.740 OK, so this brings up a bigger question about 00:16:11.740 --> 00:16:14.360 how decisions might get made going forward. If 00:16:14.360 --> 00:16:16.820 Trump has a philosophy guiding him, what exactly 00:16:16.820 --> 00:16:19.639 is the Trump doctrine? Is there one? Well, JD 00:16:19.639 --> 00:16:21.820 Vance tried to define it recently at a private 00:16:21.820 --> 00:16:23.799 dinner, apparently. He put it in context with 00:16:23.799 --> 00:16:25.980 other presidential doctrines, Monroe, Truman, 00:16:26.139 --> 00:16:28.220 Nixon, you know. According to Vance, the Trump 00:16:28.220 --> 00:16:30.990 doctrine has three parts. One. The president 00:16:30.990 --> 00:16:33.149 clearly states an American interest like Iran 00:16:33.149 --> 00:16:35.549 must not get nukes. Okay, clear interest. Two, 00:16:36.009 --> 00:16:37.929 the president tries diplomacy first to solve 00:16:37.929 --> 00:16:41.350 it. Diplomacy first, got it. Three, if diplomacy 00:16:41.350 --> 00:16:44.409 fails, he uses overwhelming military power to 00:16:44.409 --> 00:16:47.210 solve the problem and then gets the hell out. 00:16:47.409 --> 00:16:50.870 Overwhelming force, then leave. Okay, but what 00:16:50.870 --> 00:16:53.700 if step three doesn't work? Exactly. What if 00:16:53.700 --> 00:16:55.700 the overwhelming military power doesn't solve 00:16:55.700 --> 00:16:58.360 it? Like maybe the Iran bombing didn't really 00:16:58.360 --> 00:17:00.779 wipe out the nuclear program. And what if getting 00:17:00.779 --> 00:17:03.279 the hell out isn't actually possible after you've 00:17:03.279 --> 00:17:05.579 used force? Yeah. Did Vance address that? That 00:17:05.579 --> 00:17:08.039 is the critical question, isn't it? And no, reports 00:17:08.039 --> 00:17:10.480 say that crucial part what happens when the doctrine 00:17:10.480 --> 00:17:13.019 fails or when step three doesn't work as planned 00:17:13.019 --> 00:17:15.119 was left unanswered. Right. That seems like a 00:17:15.119 --> 00:17:18.079 pretty big gap. It does. OK, finally, let's touch 00:17:18.079 --> 00:17:20.400 on how decisions like bombing Iran are informed. 00:17:21.029 --> 00:17:24.369 Specifically, intelligence. Because there's news 00:17:24.369 --> 00:17:26.289 about a controversial appointment by the Director 00:17:26.289 --> 00:17:29.210 of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. Right. 00:17:30.190 --> 00:17:32.150 D &I Gabbard has picked someone named Nicholas 00:17:32.150 --> 00:17:34.950 Kass to be the acting chair of the National Intelligence 00:17:34.950 --> 00:17:38.769 Council, the NIC. Cass is described as a former 00:17:38.769 --> 00:17:42.829 spy and strong Trumpist. And the NIC, well, its 00:17:42.829 --> 00:17:44.990 job is supposed to be analyzing intelligence 00:17:44.990 --> 00:17:47.730 and giving nonpartisan objective advice to top 00:17:47.730 --> 00:17:50.670 officials on national security. Super important 00:17:50.670 --> 00:17:53.130 role. Supposed to be nonpartisan. So appointing 00:17:53.130 --> 00:17:55.750 a strong Trumpist, that's raising concerns. Big 00:17:55.750 --> 00:17:58.210 concerns. Many worry this could further pollute 00:17:58.210 --> 00:18:01.349 the quality of intelligence. The fear is, officials 00:18:01.349 --> 00:18:03.910 might just get told what they want to hear instead 00:18:03.910 --> 00:18:06.430 of the truth. Like maybe being told bombing Iran 00:18:06.430 --> 00:18:09.190 would wipe out its nuclear program. Even if the 00:18:09.190 --> 00:18:11.430 real intelligence suggested otherwise. Exactly 00:18:11.430 --> 00:18:13.670 like that. And this isn't the first time Gabbard's 00:18:13.670 --> 00:18:16.150 actions at the NIC have raised eyebrows. Just 00:18:16.150 --> 00:18:18.890 last month, she fired two Todd NIC officials. 00:18:19.109 --> 00:18:22.430 Why? Apparently a report they produced undercut 00:18:22.430 --> 00:18:25.690 Trump's immigration policies. Wow. OK. So why 00:18:25.690 --> 00:18:28.109 Cass was his appeal to Gabbard? Well, besides 00:18:28.109 --> 00:18:30.150 being a former spy, Cass has apparently written 00:18:30.150 --> 00:18:33.250 articles intensely castigating Democrats. He 00:18:33.250 --> 00:18:36.170 called Trump's 2024 win epic. And he talks a 00:18:36.170 --> 00:18:38.339 lot about hating the deep state. Where he spent 00:18:38.339 --> 00:18:40.900 the last 30 years of his career. Precisely. The 00:18:40.900 --> 00:18:43.619 irony is pretty thick there. Does this position 00:18:43.619 --> 00:18:46.960 need Senate confirmation? No. Crucially, it doesn't. 00:18:47.039 --> 00:18:49.339 And it's not clear yet if Gabbard plans to make 00:18:49.339 --> 00:18:51.740 him permanent or if this is just temporary. OK. 00:18:52.339 --> 00:18:54.000 Well, this deep dive has really covered a lot 00:18:54.000 --> 00:18:56.779 of ground. That intricate, almost theatrical 00:18:56.779 --> 00:19:00.200 diplomacy dance. The stark divisions we're seeing 00:19:00.200 --> 00:19:02.299 in domestic policy, even within the parties. 00:19:02.700 --> 00:19:05.039 and these underlying currents shaping the whole 00:19:05.039 --> 00:19:08.059 political scene. Yeah, to recap, we saw how personal 00:19:08.059 --> 00:19:10.279 relationships like that royal visit can play 00:19:10.279 --> 00:19:13.299 into global affairs. We saw those deep partisan 00:19:13.299 --> 00:19:15.839 splits, even on something as major as going to 00:19:15.839 --> 00:19:18.480 war. We dug into who really benefits from big 00:19:18.480 --> 00:19:21.579 laws like the OBBB, the real financial impact, 00:19:21.640 --> 00:19:24.000 and just that constant tension between political 00:19:24.000 --> 00:19:26.619 stories and, well, the facts on the ground. So 00:19:26.619 --> 00:19:28.680 here's a final thought to leave you with. We've 00:19:28.680 --> 00:19:31.200 seen clear examples of conflicting realities 00:19:31.200 --> 00:19:35.359 today, right? From those wildly optimistic economic 00:19:35.359 --> 00:19:37.660 guesses for the OPBB to the very different stories 00:19:37.660 --> 00:19:39.619 about how effective the Iran bombing actually 00:19:39.619 --> 00:19:43.539 was. How do you, as someone trying to stay informed, 00:19:44.039 --> 00:19:46.500 sort out the signal from all that noise? What 00:19:46.500 --> 00:19:49.400 stories are you maybe trusting without realizing 00:19:49.400 --> 00:19:51.539 it? And are they really helping you understand 00:19:51.539 --> 00:19:53.950 what's going on? It really underscores the need 00:19:53.950 --> 00:19:56.269 to keep questioning, keep looking at different 00:19:56.269 --> 00:19:58.890 sources, and just keep thinking critically about 00:19:58.890 --> 00:20:01.390 everything you hear. Absolutely. Well, thank 00:20:01.390 --> 00:20:03.430 you for joining us on this deep dive. We definitely 00:20:03.430 --> 00:20:05.769 encourage you to continue your own exploration 00:20:05.769 --> 00:20:07.109 of these really important topics.