WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.919 Welcome to the Deep Dive. This is where we take 00:00:01.919 --> 00:00:04.080 that stack of sources you send us, articles, 00:00:04.280 --> 00:00:06.660 notes, all sorts of things, and really try to 00:00:06.660 --> 00:00:08.460 pull out the key insights. Get you up to speed 00:00:08.460 --> 00:00:11.800 quickly. Exactly. And today, wow, we've got quite 00:00:11.800 --> 00:00:13.859 a range. We're looking at a really surprising 00:00:13.859 --> 00:00:16.960 political result in New York City, some big international 00:00:16.960 --> 00:00:19.199 relations stuff, and shifts in the financial 00:00:19.199 --> 00:00:21.379 world too. Yeah, quite a mix. It really shows 00:00:21.379 --> 00:00:23.879 how fast things can move on different fronts. 00:00:24.600 --> 00:00:28.140 So where do we start the NYC mayoral primary 00:00:28.140 --> 00:00:30.239 seems like a good place that definitely shook 00:00:30.239 --> 00:00:32.640 things up It really did our sources, you know 00:00:32.640 --> 00:00:34.140 They painted this picture of the start of the 00:00:34.140 --> 00:00:37.039 race where voters were kind of bracing for candidates 00:00:37.039 --> 00:00:39.899 who were Well, let's say less than thrilling 00:00:39.899 --> 00:00:42.079 underwhelming. Maybe yeah underwhelming works 00:00:42.079 --> 00:00:44.119 first You had Andrew Cuomo who everyone thought 00:00:44.119 --> 00:00:46.640 was the likely Democratic nominee, right? Yeah, 00:00:47.159 --> 00:00:50.000 but he was coming off that governorship marked 00:00:50.000 --> 00:00:53.960 by serious ethical issues, sexual harassment 00:00:53.960 --> 00:00:56.539 claims from 11 women. Right, the state investigation, 00:00:56.820 --> 00:00:59.399 using state funds for his defense, resigning. 00:00:59.619 --> 00:01:01.600 It was a lot. Then there was Eric Adams, the 00:01:01.600 --> 00:01:04.420 current mayor, started Democrat, now independent, 00:01:05.019 --> 00:01:07.159 and, oh yeah, facing federal bribery charges. 00:01:07.280 --> 00:01:09.840 Not exactly a clean slate there either. And the 00:01:09.840 --> 00:01:11.900 third name often mentioned was Curtis Sliwa, 00:01:12.200 --> 00:01:14.980 founder of the Guardian Angels. Our sources describe 00:01:14.980 --> 00:01:18.120 that group as kind of walking a line between 00:01:18.120 --> 00:01:22.500 neighborhood watch and vigilantism. And Sliwa 00:01:22.500 --> 00:01:25.299 himself. Well, the sources mentioned him faking 00:01:25.299 --> 00:01:27.519 incidents back in the day to get attention, falsely 00:01:27.519 --> 00:01:29.980 claiming a kidnapping. And also characterizations 00:01:29.980 --> 00:01:32.680 in our sources of him being, let's say, xenophobia 00:01:32.680 --> 00:01:35.480 curious. So that was the initial field. Given 00:01:35.480 --> 00:01:37.799 that lineup, maybe it's not so shocking that 00:01:37.799 --> 00:01:39.939 an alternative started to, you know, gain some 00:01:39.939 --> 00:01:42.900 serious steam. State Assemblyman Zoran Mamdani. 00:01:43.079 --> 00:01:45.439 a democratic socialist. Right, and the sources 00:01:45.439 --> 00:01:47.579 described his campaign as just really energetic. 00:01:47.780 --> 00:01:49.659 It actually got people excited, which says a 00:01:49.659 --> 00:01:51.799 lot, given the context. What's really interesting 00:01:51.799 --> 00:01:55.000 is how the sort of establishment reacted. You 00:01:55.000 --> 00:01:58.200 had big names, Bill Clinton, Jim Clyburn, Michael 00:01:58.200 --> 00:02:00.079 Bloomberg trying to rally support for Cuomo. 00:02:00.439 --> 00:02:02.379 Yeah, that Bloomberg backing is interesting. 00:02:02.680 --> 00:02:04.840 The analysis we saw pointed out, you know, like 00:02:04.840 --> 00:02:07.739 with Musk, big money doesn't always buy elections. 00:02:08.319 --> 00:02:10.879 And maybe the biggest intervention or the most 00:02:10.879 --> 00:02:13.300 talked about was from the New York Times, not 00:02:13.300 --> 00:02:16.219 an endorsement, but what one source called an 00:02:16.219 --> 00:02:18.919 anti -endorsement. Exactly. The editorial board 00:02:18.919 --> 00:02:22.159 came out and basically said, don't vote for Mom 00:02:22.159 --> 00:02:25.099 Donnie. Straight up. Wow. They hit his platform 00:02:25.099 --> 00:02:28.479 pretty hard, called it unsuited to the city's 00:02:28.479 --> 00:02:31.250 challenges, said he ignores unavoidable trade 00:02:31.250 --> 00:02:33.409 -offs. They didn't like the rent freeze idea, 00:02:33.750 --> 00:02:36.169 thought it might hurt housing supply, questioned 00:02:36.169 --> 00:02:38.909 government -run grocery stores, asking if the 00:02:38.909 --> 00:02:41.789 public sector is really cut out for retail or 00:02:41.789 --> 00:02:44.409 customer service, and they felt he downplayed 00:02:44.409 --> 00:02:46.770 the importance of policing. That's a really strong 00:02:46.770 --> 00:02:48.629 statement for the Times. Makes you wonder, though, 00:02:49.629 --> 00:02:52.069 did pushing against them like that actually backfire? 00:02:52.129 --> 00:02:54.090 Do you know the Streisand effect? Did it just 00:02:54.090 --> 00:02:56.599 draw more attention? The sources we read definitely 00:02:56.599 --> 00:02:58.479 suggested it played a role. I mean, look at the 00:02:58.479 --> 00:03:00.539 timing. That last Emerson poll just before the 00:03:00.539 --> 00:03:02.659 vote, it actually called it for Mamdani. They're 00:03:02.659 --> 00:03:05.439 right. Spot on. With most of the votes counted, 00:03:05.840 --> 00:03:08.759 Mamdani took the nomination with about 43 .5 00:03:08.759 --> 00:03:12.500 percent. Cuomo was back at 36 .4. He conceded. 00:03:12.639 --> 00:03:14.979 End of that comeback attempt. Beyond the polls 00:03:14.979 --> 00:03:17.099 and the papers, we also got some really good 00:03:17.099 --> 00:03:19.740 insights from readers in New York. Give us a 00:03:19.740 --> 00:03:22.530 feel for the mood on the ground. Yeah, JR and 00:03:22.530 --> 00:03:25.590 NYC had some sharp points about Cuomo. Talked 00:03:25.590 --> 00:03:28.349 about this pattern, supposedly, of running progressive 00:03:28.349 --> 00:03:30.650 but governing more like a Republican. What examples 00:03:30.650 --> 00:03:33.509 did JR give? Things like shutting down that Moreland 00:03:33.509 --> 00:03:35.569 Commission when it started looking at his allies, 00:03:36.090 --> 00:03:38.969 creating that IDC block in the Senate that caucused 00:03:38.969 --> 00:03:42.009 with Republicans, cuts to hospital funding, the 00:03:42.009 --> 00:03:44.009 nursing home deaths controversy. Oh, I remember 00:03:44.009 --> 00:03:46.310 those. And JR also highlighted Cuomo spending 00:03:46.310 --> 00:03:49.150 four years using public money to sue his accusers. 00:03:49.449 --> 00:03:51.490 But for Mamdani, Jayar described him as having 00:03:51.490 --> 00:03:54.590 a sharp mind, thinking deeply. Made some important 00:03:54.590 --> 00:03:56.930 points, too, like restructuring police isn't 00:03:56.930 --> 00:04:00.789 defunding and criticizing Israel isn't anti -Semitic. 00:04:01.289 --> 00:04:03.270 Yeah, Jayar pointed out many Jewish voters actually 00:04:03.270 --> 00:04:05.530 supported Mamdani. The feeling seemed to be that 00:04:05.530 --> 00:04:07.449 New Yorkers were kind of wising up. Then there 00:04:07.449 --> 00:04:10.050 was D .C. and Manhattan. Describe the early race 00:04:10.050 --> 00:04:13.409 as being driven by just name recognition because 00:04:13.409 --> 00:04:15.650 voters weren't really tuned in yet. Right, but 00:04:15.650 --> 00:04:18.110 DC really emphasized Mom Donnie's campaign called 00:04:18.110 --> 00:04:20.610 it terrific, talked about this army of passionate 00:04:20.610 --> 00:04:24.470 volunteers, smart use of social media. Apparently 00:04:24.470 --> 00:04:27.009 his appearance on Subway Takes was a hit. I saw 00:04:27.009 --> 00:04:28.910 that. And just connecting with people, walking 00:04:28.910 --> 00:04:31.649 around Manhattan, talking to average New Yorkers. 00:04:31.709 --> 00:04:34.350 Which DC contrasted with Cuomo's approach, right? 00:04:34.350 --> 00:04:37.250 Calling it a desperate scramble with lots of 00:04:37.250 --> 00:04:39.589 negative ads at the end. Yeah, DC even compared 00:04:39.589 --> 00:04:42.870 Mom Donnie's rise to Obama's 08 campaign in terms 00:04:42.870 --> 00:04:46.230 of grassroots energy. Said you couldn't imagine 00:04:46.230 --> 00:04:48.470 Cuomo just walking around Manhattan like that. 00:04:48.610 --> 00:04:50.829 So this wasn't just a local story. The sources 00:04:50.829 --> 00:04:52.810 dig into the bigger picture, the ripple effects. 00:04:53.069 --> 00:04:56.069 Mamdani's profile itself is pretty notable. Definitely. 00:04:56.410 --> 00:04:59.470 Indian descent, born in Africa, Muslim, very 00:04:59.470 --> 00:05:01.930 openly liberal, supports Palestinian civilians. 00:05:02.290 --> 00:05:05.170 He even spoke at that resist fascism rally, which 00:05:05.170 --> 00:05:08.290 one source colorfully called literally Antifa. 00:05:08.649 --> 00:05:10.889 That combination, as you can imagine, hits a 00:05:10.889 --> 00:05:12.970 lot of buttons for Republicans, according to 00:05:12.970 --> 00:05:15.990 the analysis we saw. Oh, for sure. And the GOP 00:05:15.990 --> 00:05:18.029 is already trying to frame him as the face of 00:05:18.029 --> 00:05:20.589 New York Democrats and maybe Democrats nationwide. 00:05:21.209 --> 00:05:23.620 Elise Stefanik's fund raising email called the 00:05:23.620 --> 00:05:27.480 Winsick called Mom Donnie a terrorist sympathizer. 00:05:27.579 --> 00:05:30.540 Which implies. Yeah. Very strong language. And 00:05:30.540 --> 00:05:32.899 Charlie Kirk apparently posted what source is 00:05:32.899 --> 00:05:36.740 called an overtly Islamophobic tweet trying to 00:05:36.740 --> 00:05:40.220 link Momdani to 9 -11. The strategy seems pretty 00:05:40.220 --> 00:05:42.240 clear. But it's not just the Republican reaction. 00:05:42.279 --> 00:05:44.860 This could mean big shifts inside the Democratic 00:05:44.860 --> 00:05:47.000 Party, too. That's what the analysis suggests, 00:05:47.019 --> 00:05:49.420 the prediction. Every establishment Democrat 00:05:49.420 --> 00:05:51.500 in Congress is going to draw a challenge from 00:05:51.500 --> 00:05:53.899 someone who is younger, leftier or younger, A 00:05:53.899 --> 00:05:56.819 -D leftier. Momdani's win was driven heavily 00:05:56.819 --> 00:05:59.120 by voters under 40. Millennials are the biggest 00:05:59.120 --> 00:06:01.660 generation now, right? And Mamdani himself is 00:06:01.660 --> 00:06:04.699 33, a millennial. And he knows how to craft a 00:06:04.699 --> 00:06:06.600 message. Yeah. That soundbite was memorable. 00:06:06.860 --> 00:06:09.319 Yeah. Fast and free buses, freeze the runs, free 00:06:09.319 --> 00:06:12.220 childcare. Very punchy. So looking ahead to November 00:06:12.220 --> 00:06:14.620 4th, the general election, that same Emerson 00:06:14.620 --> 00:06:16.680 poll looked at that too. Right. And it shows 00:06:16.680 --> 00:06:20.009 Mamdani is the favorite right now, 35%. Sliwa 00:06:20.009 --> 00:06:23.170 at 16, Adams at 15. But there are wild cards. 00:06:23.350 --> 00:06:26.670 Big ones. A huge chunk, 27%, were undecided. 00:06:26.689 --> 00:06:28.790 That could go anywhere. And Cuomo, I mean, he 00:06:28.790 --> 00:06:30.889 sounded like he was done, but could he come back 00:06:30.889 --> 00:06:33.490 as an independent? That's a possibility. And 00:06:33.490 --> 00:06:35.290 importantly, New York City doesn't use ranked 00:06:35.290 --> 00:06:37.790 choice voting in the general. Yeah. It's first 00:06:37.790 --> 00:06:40.250 past the post. Which means if the anti -Mandani 00:06:40.250 --> 00:06:42.389 vote wants to consolidate, it has to be behind 00:06:42.389 --> 00:06:45.810 one person. Probably Cuomo, if he runs. And the 00:06:45.810 --> 00:06:47.610 sources suggest what that campaign might look 00:06:47.610 --> 00:06:50.089 like. Yeah, potentially pretty nasty. Appealing 00:06:50.089 --> 00:06:52.310 to independents and Republicans with, you know, 00:06:52.329 --> 00:06:55.089 do you really want a radical left -wing, pro 00:06:55.089 --> 00:06:58.750 -Palestinian, Muslim kind of rhetoric? And hitting 00:06:58.750 --> 00:07:00.790 centrist Democrats with, do you want Mamdani 00:07:00.790 --> 00:07:02.889 as the face of the party? It could get ugly. 00:07:03.350 --> 00:07:07.509 OK, so from the twists of NYC politics. Let's 00:07:07.509 --> 00:07:10.410 pivot to the global stage, a different kind of 00:07:10.410 --> 00:07:13.709 drama involving Trump, Iran, international relations, 00:07:13.829 --> 00:07:17.430 and surprisingly, a fair bit of domestic political 00:07:17.430 --> 00:07:20.730 fallout. Yeah, the sources suggest a theme here 00:07:20.730 --> 00:07:23.209 for Trump might be over promise and under deliver, 00:07:23.589 --> 00:07:26.490 especially with his reaction to that Iran ceasefire. 00:07:26.750 --> 00:07:29.550 What happened there? Apparently he lost his cool. 00:07:29.910 --> 00:07:33.649 Sources say he cursed out. Israel, because he 00:07:33.649 --> 00:07:35.769 thought they should have stopped firing immediately, 00:07:36.089 --> 00:07:38.610 not wait 12 hours. He was embarrassed. Seemed 00:07:38.610 --> 00:07:41.329 like it. Embarrassed by their defiance, by them 00:07:41.329 --> 00:07:43.870 continuing operations during that window. There 00:07:43.870 --> 00:07:46.189 was this quote attributed to him, quite frustrated. 00:07:46.629 --> 00:07:48.689 We basically have two countries that have been 00:07:48.689 --> 00:07:51.290 fighting so long and so hard that they don't 00:07:51.290 --> 00:07:53.790 know what the F they're doing. Yikes. And then 00:07:53.790 --> 00:07:55.689 there was this Intel dump our sources mentioned. 00:07:56.009 --> 00:07:58.029 Right. The Department of Defense concluded the 00:07:58.029 --> 00:08:00.790 U .S.-Israel attack wasn't really a strategic 00:08:00.790 --> 00:08:05.410 success, set Iran back maybe a few months at 00:08:05.410 --> 00:08:07.470 most. Only a few months. That was the assessment 00:08:07.470 --> 00:08:09.889 reported. And maybe more importantly, the DOD 00:08:09.889 --> 00:08:12.350 apparently thinks Iran knew the attack was coming. 00:08:12.730 --> 00:08:15.310 Well, the analysis points the finger partly at 00:08:15.310 --> 00:08:17.709 Trump himself. Remember that social media post 00:08:17.709 --> 00:08:21.139 after the G7 hinting about Something big, much 00:08:21.139 --> 00:08:23.699 bigger than a ceasefire. Apparently the thinking 00:08:23.699 --> 00:08:26.300 is he did that to kind of thumb his nose at Emmanuel 00:08:26.300 --> 00:08:28.980 Macron. So a social media post might have tipped 00:08:28.980 --> 00:08:31.839 off Iran. That's the implication from the sources 00:08:31.839 --> 00:08:33.960 we reviewed. It raises serious questions about, 00:08:33.960 --> 00:08:36.139 you know, operational security and how leaders 00:08:36.139 --> 00:08:38.740 communicate. And this whole situation also exposed 00:08:38.740 --> 00:08:41.779 cracks within the GOP, didn't it? Despite claims 00:08:41.779 --> 00:08:44.980 of unity. Oh, yeah. Big time. Forget MAGGA Unity 00:08:44.980 --> 00:08:47.799 on this one. Sources highlighted folks like Thomas 00:08:47.799 --> 00:08:50.320 Massey poking Trump in the eye. You had Steve 00:08:50.320 --> 00:08:52.460 Bannon, who was against the bombing, feuding 00:08:52.460 --> 00:08:55.120 publicly with Mark Levin, who was for it. How 00:08:55.120 --> 00:08:57.620 bad did that get? Pretty bad. Levin reportedly 00:08:57.620 --> 00:09:00.639 called Bannon a contemptible POS. Bannon fired 00:09:00.639 --> 00:09:03.360 back, calling Levin Tel Aviv Levin and spokesmodel 00:09:03.360 --> 00:09:06.059 for a foreign nation. Wow. Levin also went after 00:09:06.059 --> 00:09:08.240 Tucker Carlson, calling him the happy hooker 00:09:08.240 --> 00:09:11.179 of politics. Candice Owens said she was embarrassed 00:09:11.179 --> 00:09:13.879 for supporting Trump on this. Even Matt Gaetz, 00:09:13.879 --> 00:09:16.399 anti -bombing, was apparently arguing with his 00:09:16.399 --> 00:09:19.500 own mom who was pro -bombing. So, real divisions. 00:09:19.980 --> 00:09:22.899 And the Democrats. Mostly just watching it unfold, 00:09:23.120 --> 00:09:25.559 letting the GOP fight amongst themselves. Al 00:09:25.559 --> 00:09:27.639 Green filed impeachment articles, but that went 00:09:27.639 --> 00:09:30.360 nowhere fast. Republicans and even most Democrats 00:09:30.360 --> 00:09:32.340 shut it down. What about the public? How did 00:09:32.340 --> 00:09:35.399 the polling look? Not great for the action. 56 00:09:35.399 --> 00:09:38.440 percent disapproval overall. Strong disapproval 00:09:38.440 --> 00:09:41.279 from 88 percent of Democrats and 60 percent of 00:09:41.279 --> 00:09:44.049 independents. And Trump's overall numbers. Took 00:09:44.049 --> 00:09:46.169 a hit, down three or four points in the last 00:09:46.169 --> 00:09:48.110 week according to the sources, now somewhere 00:09:48.110 --> 00:09:50.610 between five and 12 points underwater, depending 00:09:50.610 --> 00:09:53.110 on the poll you look at. And we can't talk about 00:09:53.110 --> 00:09:56.950 Trump without mentioning. The Nobel Peace Prize, 00:09:57.289 --> 00:10:00.639 of course. Still obsessed. posted this long screed 00:10:00.639 --> 00:10:02.980 about how he won't get one no matter what I do. 00:10:03.159 --> 00:10:05.059 Although his nomination situation is a bit weird 00:10:05.059 --> 00:10:07.639 now. Yeah, that Ukrainian lawmaker who nominated 00:10:07.639 --> 00:10:09.840 him formally withdrew it, said he'd lost faith 00:10:09.840 --> 00:10:12.500 and belief. But then Rep. Buddy Carter, Republican 00:10:12.500 --> 00:10:15.299 from Georgia, put in a new nomination. And apparently, 00:10:15.779 --> 00:10:17.860 the Pakistani government nominated him too. So 00:10:17.860 --> 00:10:19.500 technically, he's still in the running. Like 00:10:19.500 --> 00:10:21.100 you said, like a baseball team is mathematically 00:10:21.100 --> 00:10:23.500 alive in late September. Exactly. All right. 00:10:23.700 --> 00:10:26.460 Let's shift focus again. Away from the immediate 00:10:26.460 --> 00:10:29.039 political drama to something looming. Something 00:10:29.039 --> 00:10:31.480 consistently kicked down the road because it's 00:10:31.480 --> 00:10:35.259 politically tough. Social security. Ah, yes. 00:10:35.700 --> 00:10:38.320 The elephant in the room, as our sources put 00:10:38.320 --> 00:10:40.940 it. There's a budget bill being worked on now. 00:10:41.080 --> 00:10:45.240 Lots of negotiation via media, as they say. And 00:10:45.240 --> 00:10:47.120 the Senate parliamentarian threw a wrench in 00:10:47.120 --> 00:10:49.639 the works. Elizabeth McDonough, yeah. Her rulings 00:10:49.639 --> 00:10:52.289 apparently created some... pretty big holes in 00:10:52.289 --> 00:10:54.289 the House version, making the math really fuzzy. 00:10:54.950 --> 00:10:58.090 John Thune is trying to push things forward in 00:10:58.090 --> 00:11:00.889 the Senate. But Social Security. Yeah. It's always 00:11:00.889 --> 00:11:03.799 been treated as a future problem. Yeah. Easy 00:11:03.799 --> 00:11:06.759 to ignore for now. Until now. Because the deadline 00:11:06.759 --> 00:11:09.200 just moved up. The trust fund is now expected 00:11:09.200 --> 00:11:11.960 to run out of money in 2034. That's a year earlier 00:11:11.960 --> 00:11:14.419 than they thought. And 2034 is critical because? 00:11:14.480 --> 00:11:16.559 Because it falls within the 10 -year window of 00:11:16.559 --> 00:11:19.000 the current budget bill discussions. Which means, 00:11:19.159 --> 00:11:22.000 like it or not, Congress is now officially dealing 00:11:22.000 --> 00:11:25.759 with Social Security. The future is here. And 00:11:25.759 --> 00:11:30.559 if they do nothing, what happens in 2034? Benefits 00:11:30.559 --> 00:11:34.620 get cut. by about 25%, according to the estimates. 00:11:35.159 --> 00:11:37.220 Payments would only be made from incoming tax 00:11:37.220 --> 00:11:40.200 revenue. A 25 % cut for people living solely 00:11:40.200 --> 00:11:42.320 on Social Security? That's... Devastating. For 00:11:42.320 --> 00:11:44.580 millions, it would mean they no longer able to 00:11:44.580 --> 00:11:47.039 make ends meet. It's a huge deal. Do the sources 00:11:47.039 --> 00:11:49.179 think this will actually get tackled in the current 00:11:49.179 --> 00:11:52.039 budget talks? Probably not seriously. Especially, 00:11:52.240 --> 00:11:54.659 as one analysis noted, if Republicans are willing 00:11:54.659 --> 00:11:57.700 to slash Medicaid right now, it seems unlikely 00:11:57.700 --> 00:12:00.460 they'd tackle Social Security head on yet. But 00:12:00.460 --> 00:12:02.500 it could become a political talking point. Oh, 00:12:02.539 --> 00:12:05.080 absolutely. A potential Democratic line highlighted 00:12:05.080 --> 00:12:07.679 was these tax cuts per millionaires are going 00:12:07.679 --> 00:12:09.860 to make it even harder to keep Social Security 00:12:09.860 --> 00:12:12.419 functioning. Expect to hear variations of that. 00:12:12.580 --> 00:12:14.919 OK, finally, let's touch quickly on the economic 00:12:14.919 --> 00:12:17.480 signals our sources are tracking. Some positive 00:12:17.480 --> 00:12:19.639 flows, some negative. Right. On the positive 00:12:19.639 --> 00:12:22.620 side, there's hope for a bill before July 4th 00:12:22.620 --> 00:12:24.480 that raises the debt ceiling, maybe includes 00:12:24.480 --> 00:12:26.559 some tax cuts, increases spending in certain 00:12:26.559 --> 00:12:29.340 areas. That could be seen as a positive flow. 00:12:30.120 --> 00:12:33.360 That reciprocal tariff pause, it ends July 8th. 00:12:33.940 --> 00:12:35.419 So tariffs are going to be back in the news. 00:12:35.539 --> 00:12:38.279 Could go either way. But it's a factor. And interest 00:12:38.279 --> 00:12:41.159 rates. Seeing a rise in rate cut expectations 00:12:41.159 --> 00:12:43.639 for September and December, that optimism might 00:12:43.639 --> 00:12:46.480 last until the next inflation report hits on 00:12:46.480 --> 00:12:48.899 July 15. That'll be the reality check. OK. And 00:12:48.899 --> 00:12:50.799 the negative signal. Seeing what the analysis 00:12:50.799 --> 00:12:54.039 calls rates confirm bearish trend breakdown. 00:12:54.740 --> 00:12:56.940 This applies to both the US Treasury two year 00:12:56.940 --> 00:12:59.799 yield and the 30 year yield. Break that down 00:12:59.799 --> 00:13:02.820 for us. What does bearish trend breakdown mean 00:13:02.820 --> 00:13:06.190 in this context? It basically means the interest 00:13:06.190 --> 00:13:08.149 rates the government pays on its short -term 00:13:08.149 --> 00:13:10.610 and long -term debt are falling below previously 00:13:10.610 --> 00:13:13.450 established upward trends. The bond market is 00:13:13.450 --> 00:13:16.450 often seen as like a predictor. So this bearish 00:13:16.450 --> 00:13:18.809 signal suggests growing concerns about future 00:13:18.809 --> 00:13:21.389 economic growth may be a slowdown. It's a warning 00:13:21.389 --> 00:13:23.889 sign from the markets. Got it. So wrapping up 00:13:23.889 --> 00:13:26.460 today's deep dive. We've covered a lot of ground, 00:13:26.620 --> 00:13:29.100 a major political upset in New York, a former 00:13:29.100 --> 00:13:31.440 president struggles on the world stage, that 00:13:31.440 --> 00:13:34.279 ticking clock on Social Security, and these complex 00:13:34.279 --> 00:13:36.379 signals from the financial markets. Yeah, it 00:13:36.379 --> 00:13:38.620 really underscores how quickly things can change, 00:13:38.740 --> 00:13:40.580 doesn't it? Old assumptions get challenged, new 00:13:40.580 --> 00:13:43.200 dynamics emerge, whether it's the power of a 00:13:43.200 --> 00:13:45.100 mobilized electorate like we saw with Mom Donnie, 00:13:45.519 --> 00:13:47.679 the sheer unpredictability of high stakes diplomacy, 00:13:48.100 --> 00:13:51.000 or just the unavoidable reality of financial 00:13:51.000 --> 00:13:53.779 deadlines like Social Security. It's all happening 00:13:53.779 --> 00:13:56.509 now. It really is. So here's something to chew 00:13:56.509 --> 00:13:58.750 on, a final thought for you. When you look at 00:13:58.750 --> 00:14:02.389 the New York primary, this grassroots energy 00:14:02.389 --> 00:14:05.110 overcoming established figures and negative ads, 00:14:05.330 --> 00:14:07.690 and then you look at the Social Security crisis 00:14:07.690 --> 00:14:11.250 creeping closer and closer, what does that contrast 00:14:11.250 --> 00:14:13.850 tell us about the power of immediate energized 00:14:13.850 --> 00:14:17.009 action versus long -term planning? both in politics 00:14:17.009 --> 00:14:20.049 and policy. Could the lessons from Mamdani's 00:14:20.049 --> 00:14:22.490 campaign, that ability to mobilize and energize 00:14:22.490 --> 00:14:25.269 people now, somehow be applied to an issue like 00:14:25.269 --> 00:14:27.730 Social Security, to actually get meaningful action 00:14:27.730 --> 00:14:30.149 before it's truly crisis time for the millions 00:14:30.149 --> 00:14:31.769 who depend on it? Just something to think about.