WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.720 Welcome to the deep dive. You know, it feels 00:00:02.720 --> 00:00:05.700 like there's just this constant flood of news, 00:00:05.960 --> 00:00:08.699 right? Especially coming out of Washington. Absolutely. 00:00:08.980 --> 00:00:11.820 Every day, it's something new. And it's incredibly 00:00:11.820 --> 00:00:15.199 easy to feel kind of overwhelmed by it all, trying 00:00:15.199 --> 00:00:16.960 to figure out what's actually important, what 00:00:16.960 --> 00:00:20.480 connects. It's tough. It really is. Getting that 00:00:20.480 --> 00:00:23.940 clear picture, seeing how issue A relates to 00:00:23.940 --> 00:00:26.699 issue B, that takes some digging. Exactly. And 00:00:26.699 --> 00:00:28.839 that's what we're aiming for today. So for this 00:00:28.839 --> 00:00:31.219 deep dive, we're going to zero in on some, well, 00:00:31.699 --> 00:00:34.240 really significant political and economic stuff 00:00:34.240 --> 00:00:37.579 unfolding in D .C. right now. We'll start by 00:00:37.579 --> 00:00:40.840 looking at the internal battles going on within 00:00:40.840 --> 00:00:43.259 a major political party. Then we'll shift gears 00:00:43.259 --> 00:00:45.920 to that big Republican legislative package. There's 00:00:45.920 --> 00:00:47.460 a lot of debate around that and the national 00:00:47.460 --> 00:00:50.140 debt. Right, the mega bill. Yeah. And finally, 00:00:50.179 --> 00:00:52.939 we'll tackle those frankly alarming new projections 00:00:52.939 --> 00:00:54.859 about Social Security and Medicare's financial 00:00:54.859 --> 00:00:57.429 health. So our goal here really is to cut through 00:00:57.429 --> 00:00:59.570 all that noise. We want to pull out the key insights, 00:00:59.909 --> 00:01:02.070 the important bits from recent reporting, and 00:01:02.070 --> 00:01:04.390 just help you connect the dots. Makes sense of 00:01:04.390 --> 00:01:06.909 it all. Yeah, exactly. So you get those aha moments. 00:01:07.269 --> 00:01:09.549 You see how these things that seem separate are 00:01:09.549 --> 00:01:12.629 actually linked. You walk away feeling genuinely 00:01:12.629 --> 00:01:15.790 informed but not, you know, buried in details. 00:01:16.040 --> 00:01:18.420 Precisely. And the insights we're working with 00:01:18.420 --> 00:01:20.459 today, they're coming from some really in -depth 00:01:20.459 --> 00:01:23.659 analysis published just this week by Politico. 00:01:23.700 --> 00:01:25.640 So it's a very current snapshot we're looking 00:01:25.640 --> 00:01:28.739 at. Good stuff. Ready to dive in. Let's do it. 00:01:28.760 --> 00:01:34.079 OK, first up, the Democrats, specifically the 00:01:34.079 --> 00:01:36.959 DNC. There's a new chair, Ken Martin, who took 00:01:36.959 --> 00:01:39.420 over back in February. That's right. Only since 00:01:39.420 --> 00:01:41.159 February. And it sounds like, wow, he's already 00:01:41.159 --> 00:01:43.980 walking into some pretty serious internal drama. 00:01:44.060 --> 00:01:46.450 Not much of a honeymoon period there. No, not 00:01:46.450 --> 00:01:48.450 really. If there ever was one, it evaporated 00:01:48.450 --> 00:01:50.750 fast. I mean, just four and a half months in, 00:01:50.769 --> 00:01:52.969 and you're already hearing critics inside the 00:01:52.969 --> 00:01:57.310 DNC calling his leadership weak and whiny, even 00:01:57.310 --> 00:02:01.090 invisible. Invisible. Ouch. That's quite a label 00:02:01.090 --> 00:02:03.670 for the head of the DNC. It is. And one DNC member 00:02:03.670 --> 00:02:06.409 just flat out said his early tenure was disappointing. 00:02:06.849 --> 00:02:08.930 And didn't Rahm Emanuel weigh in pretty sharply, 00:02:09.250 --> 00:02:11.620 too? Oh, yeah, the former Obama chief of staff. 00:02:11.819 --> 00:02:14.580 He had that really cutting line about the DNC 00:02:14.580 --> 00:02:16.740 spending six months on a firing squad in the 00:02:16.740 --> 00:02:19.379 circle and can't even fire a shot out. That's 00:02:19.379 --> 00:02:22.259 brutal. So what does all this infighting really 00:02:22.259 --> 00:02:24.259 signal about where the party's at right now? 00:02:24.560 --> 00:02:27.060 Well, it definitely highlights deep concerns, 00:02:27.060 --> 00:02:29.159 I think, about Martin's ability to unify the 00:02:29.159 --> 00:02:31.740 party, especially after some tough election losses. 00:02:31.939 --> 00:02:34.819 It suggests there are real fractures, real bitterness 00:02:34.819 --> 00:02:36.780 within the different factions. Can you give us 00:02:36.780 --> 00:02:39.439 some concrete examples? What really shows the, 00:02:39.439 --> 00:02:41.900 you know, the depth of this friction? Sure. I 00:02:41.900 --> 00:02:44.039 mean, look at the labor unions. You had Randy 00:02:44.039 --> 00:02:46.719 Weingarten from the teachers union, AFT, and 00:02:46.719 --> 00:02:50.400 Lee Saunders from AFSCME, two really big influential 00:02:50.400 --> 00:02:52.919 leaders. They actually quit their posts at the 00:02:52.919 --> 00:02:55.580 DNC. Oh, wow. Yeah. Citing disagreements over 00:02:55.580 --> 00:02:57.879 the party's direction. That's huge. These unions 00:02:57.879 --> 00:03:00.680 represent millions, and it signals a potential 00:03:00.680 --> 00:03:03.659 rift with a core democratic constituency. That's 00:03:03.659 --> 00:03:05.699 a major signal. And then there was that incident 00:03:05.699 --> 00:03:09.120 with David Hogg, the gun control activist. Right. 00:03:09.460 --> 00:03:11.580 He got pushed out of his vice chair role after 00:03:11.580 --> 00:03:15.259 he pledged to fund primary challenges against 00:03:15.259 --> 00:03:16.960 Democrats he thought weren't effective enough. 00:03:17.360 --> 00:03:19.539 That's a direct challenge to party unity right 00:03:19.539 --> 00:03:22.159 there. definitely stirs the pot. And Martin also 00:03:22.159 --> 00:03:24.259 apparently angered some people by removing quite 00:03:24.259 --> 00:03:27.419 a few party officials from a key panel. This 00:03:27.419 --> 00:03:30.319 is the Rules and Bylaws Committee, super important 00:03:30.319 --> 00:03:33.020 for setting up the 2028 presidential nomination 00:03:33.020 --> 00:03:37.319 process. And the reporting noted that 13 of the 00:03:37.319 --> 00:03:39.900 15 people he removed hadn't voted for him in 00:03:39.900 --> 00:03:42.379 the DNC chair election. OK, so you can see how 00:03:42.379 --> 00:03:44.960 that might look like consolidating power. not 00:03:44.960 --> 00:03:48.060 building bridges. But I gather Martin and his 00:03:48.060 --> 00:03:49.879 team see it differently. They absolutely do. 00:03:50.259 --> 00:03:52.479 His allies argue he's just focused on the main 00:03:52.479 --> 00:03:55.039 goal, winning elections. They point out he's 00:03:55.039 --> 00:03:57.280 been traveling constantly, visiting dozens of 00:03:57.280 --> 00:04:00.280 states, boosting funding for state parties. And 00:04:00.280 --> 00:04:02.280 they highlight that Democrats have actually been 00:04:02.280 --> 00:04:04.539 over -performing in special elections this year. 00:04:05.099 --> 00:04:07.580 They see that as proof his strategy is working. 00:04:08.340 --> 00:04:10.680 Some even say he's diluting his own power by 00:04:10.680 --> 00:04:13.159 letting DNC members elect people to committee 00:04:13.159 --> 00:04:16.790 slots now. So it's a transforming the DNC narrative 00:04:16.790 --> 00:04:20.129 from their side. But it sounds like maybe some 00:04:20.129 --> 00:04:22.290 democratic lawmakers on the Hill aren't quite 00:04:22.290 --> 00:04:25.100 buying it, or maybe just aren't plugged in. That 00:04:25.100 --> 00:04:26.839 seems to be part of the problem. Yeah. You had 00:04:26.839 --> 00:04:29.100 Senator Ron Wyden saying, you know, give people 00:04:29.100 --> 00:04:32.120 a bit more time, sort of hedging. But then Senator 00:04:32.120 --> 00:04:34.500 Mazie Hirono just admitted, to tell you the truth, 00:04:34.579 --> 00:04:36.759 I don't know him. I haven't met him yet. Wow. 00:04:36.879 --> 00:04:39.600 That really reinforces that invisible criticism, 00:04:39.800 --> 00:04:42.660 doesn't it? It could, yeah. And Martin himself 00:04:42.660 --> 00:04:45.379 apparently acknowledged this challenge in a private 00:04:45.379 --> 00:04:47.459 meeting, saying something like, no one knows 00:04:47.459 --> 00:04:49.079 who the hell I am, right? I'm trying to get my 00:04:49.079 --> 00:04:52.939 sea lakes. So the big picture here isn't just, 00:04:52.939 --> 00:04:55.680 you know, palace intrigue. It's about a party 00:04:55.680 --> 00:04:58.199 that seems to be struggling to get its key players 00:04:58.199 --> 00:05:00.819 on the same page. Which naturally raises questions 00:05:00.819 --> 00:05:03.079 about their ability to tackle the big stuff. 00:05:03.500 --> 00:05:05.579 Exactly. Which kind of leads us nicely into the 00:05:05.579 --> 00:05:07.560 next big challenge we wanted to look at. Right. 00:05:07.600 --> 00:05:10.420 Let's pivot to the economy and specifically this 00:05:10.420 --> 00:05:14.079 massive Republican legislative package. It's 00:05:14.079 --> 00:05:16.300 hitting turbulence over its potential impact 00:05:16.300 --> 00:05:18.800 on the national debt. Senate Republicans are 00:05:18.800 --> 00:05:22.279 pushing this huge bill border energy tax cuts. 00:05:22.319 --> 00:05:24.300 I think there was a lot of ground. But economists, 00:05:24.779 --> 00:05:26.660 particularly nonpartisan ones, are basically 00:05:26.660 --> 00:05:28.740 shouting warnings that it could add trillions 00:05:28.740 --> 00:05:31.120 to the deficit. And what's really striking is 00:05:31.120 --> 00:05:34.000 how those warnings seem to be, well, largely 00:05:34.000 --> 00:05:36.480 dismissed by Senate Republicans leading the charge. 00:05:37.040 --> 00:05:39.500 They're leaning very heavily on White House projections. 00:05:39.720 --> 00:05:41.759 Projections that assume much higher economic 00:05:41.759 --> 00:05:44.220 growth than most other models predict? Precisely. 00:05:44.519 --> 00:05:46.560 And they're openly questioning the credibility 00:05:46.560 --> 00:05:48.560 of the Congressional Budget Office, the CBO. 00:05:49.519 --> 00:05:52.459 the nonpartisan scorekeeper Congress relies on. 00:05:52.959 --> 00:05:55.199 So the CBO comes out and says the House version 00:05:55.199 --> 00:05:57.740 adds about $2 .8 trillion to the deficit over 00:05:57.740 --> 00:06:00.819 10 years. And the response is essentially, nope, 00:06:01.120 --> 00:06:03.800 CBO's wrong. Pretty much. Senator Kevin Cramer 00:06:03.800 --> 00:06:07.139 called the CBO report a model that's been famously 00:06:07.139 --> 00:06:11.279 wrong before. He argued they grossly underestimate 00:06:11.279 --> 00:06:14.610 the economic benefits. But the CBO... And others 00:06:14.610 --> 00:06:17.009 are saying that while tax cuts might spur some 00:06:17.009 --> 00:06:19.910 growth, it likely don't be nearly as much as 00:06:19.910 --> 00:06:22.889 claimed, maybe not even as much as the 2017 tax 00:06:22.889 --> 00:06:25.269 cuts. That's the counter argument. And it's a 00:06:25.269 --> 00:06:27.589 crucial point, especially when you consider the 00:06:27.589 --> 00:06:29.870 existing debt, what, nearly thirty seven trillion 00:06:29.870 --> 00:06:32.550 dollars now. Yeah. The cost of just paying the 00:06:32.550 --> 00:06:35.550 interest on that debt is soaring, and that cost 00:06:35.550 --> 00:06:38.050 could actually wipe out any extra revenue generated 00:06:38.050 --> 00:06:40.569 if the economic growth doesn't materialize as 00:06:40.569 --> 00:06:43.100 strongly as hoped. So the CBO actually projected 00:06:43.100 --> 00:06:45.399 higher interest payments because of this bill, 00:06:45.920 --> 00:06:48.939 like $440 billion more over a decade. Yes, while 00:06:48.939 --> 00:06:51.060 predicting average economic growth from the bill 00:06:51.060 --> 00:06:53.600 at only about 0 .5 percent a year, compare that 00:06:53.600 --> 00:06:55.699 to House GOP leaders who claim the bill would 00:06:55.699 --> 00:06:58.819 generate $2 .5 trillion, banking on growth averaging 00:06:58.819 --> 00:07:01.620 2 .6 percent. Those are vastly different worlds. 00:07:01.759 --> 00:07:03.279 And wasn't there something unusual about the 00:07:03.279 --> 00:07:05.779 CBO's dynamic scoring this time? Usually that 00:07:05.779 --> 00:07:08.079 makes tax cuts look better for the deficit, right? 00:07:08.319 --> 00:07:11.660 Exactly. Dynamic scoring tries to factor in the 00:07:11.660 --> 00:07:14.480 economic effects of the policy. Usually, for 00:07:14.480 --> 00:07:17.160 tax cuts, it shows less of a deficit increase. 00:07:17.620 --> 00:07:20.439 But this time, the CBO's dynamic score deficit 00:07:20.439 --> 00:07:23.939 projection, $2 .8 trillion, was higher than their 00:07:23.939 --> 00:07:27.740 earlier static score of $2 .4 trillion. That's... 00:07:27.550 --> 00:07:30.790 Counterintuitive, why? The CBO explicitly pointed 00:07:30.790 --> 00:07:33.230 to the bill's potential to increase interest 00:07:33.230 --> 00:07:36.029 rates. That dynamic actually caused at least 00:07:36.029 --> 00:07:38.930 one Republican, Senator Ron Johnson, to balk. 00:07:39.199 --> 00:07:41.439 He put out his own analysis showing the bill 00:07:41.439 --> 00:07:44.300 likely won't reduce the deficit, even under optimistic 00:07:44.300 --> 00:07:46.660 scenarios. He said he'll vote against it as is. 00:07:47.199 --> 00:07:49.180 Interesting. But Senate Majority Leader John 00:07:49.180 --> 00:07:51.740 Thune is still pushing it hard. He is. He's on 00:07:51.740 --> 00:07:53.579 the Senate floor citing a White House economic 00:07:53.579 --> 00:07:55.680 report claiming the bill would generate something 00:07:55.680 --> 00:07:58.420 like $4 .1 trillion through growth, projecting 00:07:58.420 --> 00:08:01.639 long -run GDP growth up to 3 .5%. Those White 00:08:01.639 --> 00:08:03.680 House numbers really seem like outliers compared 00:08:03.680 --> 00:08:06.279 to everyone else, then. They absolutely do. You 00:08:06.279 --> 00:08:08.319 look at the tax foundation, more conservative 00:08:08.319 --> 00:08:11.000 leaning, they see maybe 0 .8 % growth and still 00:08:11.000 --> 00:08:13.579 $1 .7 trillion added to the deficit. Penn Wharton 00:08:13.579 --> 00:08:17.519 budget model, 0 .4 % growth, $3 .2 trillion added. 00:08:18.079 --> 00:08:20.560 One economist from AEI just called the White 00:08:20.560 --> 00:08:23.379 House figures outrageous. So the takeaway here 00:08:23.379 --> 00:08:26.100 is this huge gap between traditional economic 00:08:26.100 --> 00:08:29.040 forecasts and a specific political narrative 00:08:29.040 --> 00:08:31.899 about growth, which has massive implications 00:08:31.899 --> 00:08:34.789 for the debt. And for how Washington even measures 00:08:34.789 --> 00:08:38.330 fiscal responsibility. Meanwhile, Democrats are 00:08:38.330 --> 00:08:40.169 waiting in the wings, ready to say, I told you 00:08:40.169 --> 00:08:42.750 so, if the economy doesn't boom, much like they 00:08:42.750 --> 00:08:45.950 did after the 2017 tax cuts. Which, again, brings 00:08:45.950 --> 00:08:48.549 us back to the nation's long term financial health. 00:08:48.690 --> 00:08:51.529 And that ties directly into our third area, Social 00:08:51.529 --> 00:08:54.190 Security and Medicare. Yeah, because piled on 00:08:54.190 --> 00:08:56.409 top of everything else, we just got new projections 00:08:56.409 --> 00:08:58.450 showing the financial picture for both Social 00:08:58.450 --> 00:09:00.350 Security and Medicare actually got worse last 00:09:00.350 --> 00:09:03.029 year. Worse? How so? Those annual reports from 00:09:03.029 --> 00:09:05.029 the Treasury Department, they show the funding 00:09:05.029 --> 00:09:07.629 cliffs. The points where the programs can't pay 00:09:07.629 --> 00:09:11.169 out full benefits are coming sooner. Social Security's 00:09:11.169 --> 00:09:13.509 combined funds are now projected to run short 00:09:13.509 --> 00:09:16.509 in 2034. That's a year earlier than they thought 00:09:16.509 --> 00:09:19.889 last year. 2034. Okay. And Medicare. Even sooner. 00:09:20.750 --> 00:09:23.450 Its main hospital trust fund, Part A, is now 00:09:23.450 --> 00:09:26.649 projected to be depleted in 2033. That's three 00:09:26.649 --> 00:09:29.440 years earlier than last year's projection. That's 00:09:29.440 --> 00:09:31.940 a significant shift. Wow, three years is a big 00:09:31.940 --> 00:09:34.240 jump for Medicare. What's driving these changes? 00:09:34.379 --> 00:09:36.740 Why the acceleration? Well, for Social Security, 00:09:36.919 --> 00:09:39.220 one factor was actually a bipartisan law President 00:09:39.220 --> 00:09:42.039 Biden signed back in January. It expanded benefits 00:09:42.039 --> 00:09:44.600 for some public sector workers, basically broadening 00:09:44.600 --> 00:09:48.019 eligibility. OK. Plus the actuaries revised economic 00:09:48.019 --> 00:09:50.980 forecasts downward. They expect slower long term 00:09:50.980 --> 00:09:53.200 wage growth now, and they think fertility rates 00:09:53.200 --> 00:09:55.519 will stay lower for longer. Fewer workers supporting 00:09:55.519 --> 00:09:58.259 more retirees, essentially. And Medicare. Why 00:09:58.259 --> 00:10:00.399 the three year jump there? mainly higher than 00:10:00.399 --> 00:10:03.480 expected spending recently, plus upward revisions 00:10:03.480 --> 00:10:06.080 in projected future costs for hospital and hospice 00:10:06.080 --> 00:10:09.080 care. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant made it 00:10:09.080 --> 00:10:11.440 clear lawmakers really need to step up and act 00:10:11.440 --> 00:10:13.559 to shore these programs up. You hear that call 00:10:13.559 --> 00:10:15.840 for action a lot, but the timelines keep getting 00:10:15.840 --> 00:10:18.460 shorter. What about the politics around it? Trump's 00:10:18.460 --> 00:10:20.440 talked about Social Security on the trail. He 00:10:20.440 --> 00:10:23.179 has. He vowed to eliminate taxes on Social Security 00:10:23.179 --> 00:10:25.299 benefits entirely. But the current Republican 00:10:25.299 --> 00:10:27.639 proposals in Congress, the ones tied to that 00:10:27.639 --> 00:10:29.649 mega bill we discussed, They don't go that far. 00:10:29.909 --> 00:10:32.129 Right. They propose deductions, not elimination. 00:10:32.269 --> 00:10:34.610 What was it, like $4 ,000 extra deduction in 00:10:34.610 --> 00:10:37.110 the House plan, $6 ,000 in the Senate? Something 00:10:37.110 --> 00:10:39.350 like that. Yeah. So still a tax break for seniors, 00:10:39.610 --> 00:10:41.990 but not the full elimination Trump mentioned. 00:10:42.269 --> 00:10:44.529 Of course, the administration is also focused 00:10:44.529 --> 00:10:46.929 on things like fraud reduction and trimming the 00:10:46.929 --> 00:10:48.990 Social Security administration workforce. OK, 00:10:49.009 --> 00:10:51.269 so let's game this out. What actually happens 00:10:51.269 --> 00:10:54.669 if Congress doesn't act by 2033 for Medicare 00:10:54.669 --> 00:10:58.850 Part A and 2034 for Social Security if they hit 00:10:58.850 --> 00:11:02.299 those cliffs? That's the critical question. Because 00:11:02.299 --> 00:11:04.539 both programs already pay out more each year 00:11:04.539 --> 00:11:06.620 than they take in through dedicated payroll taxes. 00:11:07.159 --> 00:11:09.799 They're using reserves, their trust funds to 00:11:09.799 --> 00:11:13.620 cover the gap. If those trust funds run dry and 00:11:13.620 --> 00:11:15.960 Congress hasn't changed the law, Social Security 00:11:15.960 --> 00:11:18.700 would only be able to pay about 81 % of the benefits 00:11:18.700 --> 00:11:21.519 people are scheduled to receive. Medicare Part 00:11:21.519 --> 00:11:24.720 A could only cover about 89 % of its bills. So 00:11:24.720 --> 00:11:27.820 an immediate significant cut for millions of 00:11:27.820 --> 00:11:30.620 seniors and beneficiaries, not a gradual phase 00:11:30.620 --> 00:11:33.509 out. An abrupt shortfall. Yeah. OK, so wrapping 00:11:33.509 --> 00:11:37.009 this up, we've really covered three huge interlocking 00:11:37.009 --> 00:11:39.549 challenges here in Washington today. You've got 00:11:39.549 --> 00:11:42.210 the internal strife within the DNC. Then the 00:11:42.210 --> 00:11:44.549 deep disagreements over economic strategy and 00:11:44.549 --> 00:11:47.029 the national debt highlighted by that Republican 00:11:47.029 --> 00:11:49.629 mega bill. And finally, these accelerating funding 00:11:49.629 --> 00:11:52.149 deadlines for Social Security and Medicare demanding 00:11:52.149 --> 00:11:54.649 actions sooner rather than later. And it's important 00:11:54.649 --> 00:11:57.049 to remember these aren't just abstract political 00:11:57.049 --> 00:12:00.269 games. They have real consequences for policy, 00:12:00.529 --> 00:12:03.090 for the economy's stability, and obviously for 00:12:03.090 --> 00:12:05.230 the future of programs millions of people rely 00:12:05.230 --> 00:12:07.649 on, maybe including you listening right now. 00:12:07.740 --> 00:12:10.340 Absolutely. Understanding how a party's internal 00:12:10.340 --> 00:12:13.419 health, its economic approach, and these massive 00:12:13.419 --> 00:12:16.519 social safety net challenges all interact. That's 00:12:16.519 --> 00:12:18.620 really key to making sense of the whole political 00:12:18.620 --> 00:12:21.019 landscape. It really is. You can't easily separate 00:12:21.019 --> 00:12:22.759 them. So here's a final thought to leave you 00:12:22.759 --> 00:12:25.480 with. We just heard Social Security's cliff is 00:12:25.480 --> 00:12:29.179 projected for 2034, Medicare's for 2033, action 00:12:29.179 --> 00:12:31.960 is needed. We also talked about deep divisions 00:12:31.960 --> 00:12:34.299 within one major party, potentially hindering 00:12:34.299 --> 00:12:36.860 its effectiveness. And we looked at the other 00:12:36.860 --> 00:12:40.179 major party pushing an economic plan with forecasts 00:12:40.179 --> 00:12:42.840 starkly different from nonpartisan analyses, 00:12:43.419 --> 00:12:45.750 raising huge questions about debt. Given all 00:12:45.750 --> 00:12:48.330 that the internal party issues, the clashing 00:12:48.330 --> 00:12:50.610 economic visions, and these looming entitlement 00:12:50.610 --> 00:12:53.429 deadlines, what does this combination of pressures 00:12:53.429 --> 00:12:55.789 really suggest about Washington's ability, its 00:12:55.789 --> 00:12:58.110 collective capacity, to actually find common 00:12:58.110 --> 00:13:00.330 ground and tackle the country's biggest long 00:13:00.330 --> 00:13:01.590 -term problems right now?