WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.500 OK, welcome to the deep dive. We've got quite 00:00:02.500 --> 00:00:04.679 a stack of material here today, articles and 00:00:04.679 --> 00:00:07.219 research notes covering a really wide range. 00:00:07.280 --> 00:00:10.220 Yeah, it looks like everything from potential 00:00:10.220 --> 00:00:12.980 international conflict and its whipples right 00:00:12.980 --> 00:00:16.399 through to U .S. politics, court cases, public 00:00:16.399 --> 00:00:19.120 opinion, even how personal finances might be 00:00:19.120 --> 00:00:21.600 mixing with public life. It's a lot. It definitely 00:00:21.600 --> 00:00:24.899 is. So our mission today, really, is to cut through 00:00:24.899 --> 00:00:28.059 that noise. We want to pull out the key insights 00:00:28.059 --> 00:00:30.379 from all this material. Understand the connections, 00:00:30.440 --> 00:00:32.880 maybe, where things link up unexpectedly. Exactly. 00:00:33.320 --> 00:00:35.679 And hopefully uncover some of those surprising 00:00:35.679 --> 00:00:38.039 facts that help you get quickly informed on, 00:00:38.039 --> 00:00:40.060 well, several important fronts. Instead of you 00:00:40.060 --> 00:00:41.539 having to wade through all this yourself, think 00:00:41.539 --> 00:00:44.880 of us as guides, maybe highlighting what really 00:00:44.880 --> 00:00:47.729 matters and why. what stands out, what's shifting, 00:00:48.070 --> 00:00:50.030 what's genuinely new information here. Sounds 00:00:50.030 --> 00:00:52.390 good. Ready? Ready when you are. OK, let's unpack 00:00:52.390 --> 00:00:54.229 this stack then. We're going to start, I think, 00:00:54.250 --> 00:00:56.369 with the international picture, specifically 00:00:56.369 --> 00:01:00.850 this. This shadow of war between Israel and Iran 00:01:00.850 --> 00:01:04.349 and what our material is saying about the consequences 00:01:04.349 --> 00:01:07.030 for the US. Right. And the first point the sources 00:01:07.030 --> 00:01:10.030 make is pretty clear. The US isn't currently 00:01:10.030 --> 00:01:13.469 directly involved in the fighting itself. That's 00:01:13.469 --> 00:01:16.769 the baseline. But the moment they clash directly, 00:01:18.170 --> 00:01:20.849 the material points out a huge ripple effect. 00:01:21.370 --> 00:01:23.530 It just pulls the global spotlight right off 00:01:23.530 --> 00:01:27.250 Gaza. And that shift in attention is significant 00:01:27.250 --> 00:01:30.670 just on its own. For U .S. politics, too, especially 00:01:30.670 --> 00:01:33.829 Democrats, this looks like a real bind. The analysis 00:01:33.829 --> 00:01:36.189 suggests Trump will almost certainly back Israel 00:01:36.189 --> 00:01:38.909 full throated support. Which puts Democrats. 00:01:39.260 --> 00:01:41.500 In a tricky spot, right. They definitely don't 00:01:41.500 --> 00:01:43.379 want to look like they're backing Iran. Absolutely 00:01:43.379 --> 00:01:45.060 not. But they also don't want to just fall in 00:01:45.060 --> 00:01:46.819 line behind Trump. And you can already see that 00:01:46.819 --> 00:01:48.900 tension playing out. We've got examples here. 00:01:49.340 --> 00:01:51.400 Representatives Horsford and Moskowitz strongly 00:01:51.400 --> 00:01:54.500 backing Israel. But then others, like Representative 00:01:54.500 --> 00:01:57.219 Jayapal, Senator Reid, they're calling for de 00:01:57.219 --> 00:01:59.540 -escalation. And the worry highlighted here is 00:01:59.540 --> 00:02:02.480 about perception. If Democrats don't stake out 00:02:02.480 --> 00:02:05.319 a really clear, strong position, they could be 00:02:05.319 --> 00:02:08.189 seen as weak, especially on foreign policy. So 00:02:08.189 --> 00:02:11.370 how does this war hit Trump personally? The material 00:02:11.370 --> 00:02:14.830 has an interesting take. A huge Middle East conflict 00:02:14.830 --> 00:02:18.169 he can't control actually makes him look weak. 00:02:18.360 --> 00:02:21.180 Yeah, it highlights that failed goal he had, 00:02:21.280 --> 00:02:23.979 remember, the Israel -Iran nuclear deal that 00:02:23.979 --> 00:02:25.759 never happened. He likes being the guy in charge, 00:02:25.840 --> 00:02:28.680 the one pulling the strings. Exactly. And a major 00:02:28.680 --> 00:02:31.340 event happening without him center stage kind 00:02:31.340 --> 00:02:34.319 of undermines that image. And conversely, if 00:02:34.319 --> 00:02:37.460 Netanyahu manages to really damage Iran's nuclear 00:02:37.460 --> 00:02:40.020 program without Trump's help. Then Netanyahu 00:02:40.020 --> 00:02:43.500 looks strong. And Trump looks less effective, 00:02:43.680 --> 00:02:46.319 maybe less central. Look at the narrative shifting 00:02:46.319 --> 00:02:48.979 from the U .S. side. First, the official line 00:02:48.979 --> 00:02:51.439 was Israel acted alone. Right, we didn't know 00:02:51.439 --> 00:02:53.840 beforehand. But the material knows Trump's now 00:02:53.840 --> 00:02:55.639 trying to spin it, claiming he knew all along. 00:02:56.060 --> 00:02:58.599 And the insight there is it's purely about perception 00:02:58.599 --> 00:03:00.580 management, isn't it? Totally. Admitting he was 00:03:00.580 --> 00:03:02.840 out of the loop on something this big. That looks 00:03:02.840 --> 00:03:05.900 bad. Incompetent, maybe? Yeah. So the shift to 00:03:05.900 --> 00:03:08.080 I knew is just controlling the story. Of course, 00:03:08.280 --> 00:03:10.159 the really big potential consequence discussed 00:03:10.159 --> 00:03:12.319 is the US getting dragged into the fighting. 00:03:12.490 --> 00:03:14.750 That would put Trump in a really difficult spot. 00:03:14.969 --> 00:03:17.370 It could seriously fracture the Republican Party. 00:03:17.569 --> 00:03:19.889 How so? Well, he's got pressure from the isolationist 00:03:19.889 --> 00:03:22.349 wing, think Tucker Carlson. Right. And then the 00:03:22.349 --> 00:03:24.770 hardliners, like Senator Ted Cruz, demanding 00:03:24.770 --> 00:03:28.129 strong action. Whatever choice he makes potentially 00:03:28.129 --> 00:03:31.629 alienates a big chunk of his base or his allies. 00:03:31.909 --> 00:03:34.430 And beyond the military and political mess, the 00:03:34.430 --> 00:03:37.629 material flags big economic risks, too. Oh, yeah. 00:03:37.870 --> 00:03:40.599 Oil prices spiking. which could easily reignite 00:03:40.599 --> 00:03:42.860 inflation. Definitely. And if it escalates or 00:03:42.860 --> 00:03:44.620 drags on, you could see the stock market getting 00:03:44.620 --> 00:03:47.460 really spooked, maybe even pushing towards recession. 00:03:48.060 --> 00:03:50.280 There's also a deeper question raised here about 00:03:50.280 --> 00:03:52.780 what Israel's real goal might be. Is it just 00:03:52.780 --> 00:03:55.699 taking out nuclear capacity or something bigger 00:03:55.699 --> 00:03:58.360 like regime change? Netanyahu saying attacks 00:03:58.360 --> 00:04:01.020 will continue as many days as it takes to remove 00:04:01.020 --> 00:04:03.620 the threat. That's pretty ambiguous. What is 00:04:03.620 --> 00:04:06.069 the threat to the nuclear sites? Or the regime 00:04:06.069 --> 00:04:08.870 itself. The analysis suggests regime change might 00:04:08.870 --> 00:04:11.849 actually be, oddly, more achievable. Because 00:04:11.849 --> 00:04:14.770 the nuclear sites are buried so deep. Hard to 00:04:14.770 --> 00:04:18.769 hit. Incredibly hard. But leaders! They're, well, 00:04:19.110 --> 00:04:21.769 easier targets. There's even this detail in the 00:04:21.769 --> 00:04:24.129 notes about Trump supposedly telling Netanyahu 00:04:24.129 --> 00:04:26.569 not to target Iranian leaders. Which could mean, 00:04:26.689 --> 00:04:30.529 what, a false flag? Yeah. Or just advice Netanyahu 00:04:30.529 --> 00:04:33.029 might ignore. Could be either. misinformation 00:04:33.029 --> 00:04:35.709 to make them complacent, or genuine advice he 00:04:35.709 --> 00:04:38.350 just disregards. The material also touches on 00:04:38.350 --> 00:04:41.170 who might replace the Ayatollahs. Reza Pahlavi, 00:04:41.250 --> 00:04:43.430 the Shah's son, gets mentioned. And the perspective 00:04:43.430 --> 00:04:45.850 offered is that, well, quite a few Iranians wouldn't 00:04:45.850 --> 00:04:48.730 mind that, and folks like MBS and Saudi Arabia 00:04:48.730 --> 00:04:50.769 would probably be thrilled. I think one piece 00:04:50.769 --> 00:04:53.569 described him potentially zipping off to Jerusalem 00:04:53.569 --> 00:04:57.250 to hug Netanyahu if the regime fell. Huh. Yeah. 00:04:57.430 --> 00:04:59.730 Colorful language. But crucially, the material 00:04:59.730 --> 00:05:02.579 adds a counterpoint. A new regime could, ironically, 00:05:02.839 --> 00:05:04.839 end up being even worse for U .S. interests. 00:05:05.079 --> 00:05:08.079 So, not simple at all. Layers of political, economic, 00:05:08.279 --> 00:05:10.939 maybe even societal consequences way beyond the 00:05:10.939 --> 00:05:13.420 region. Absolutely. Which actually leads us to 00:05:13.420 --> 00:05:15.579 this unexpected development tied to the Iran 00:05:15.579 --> 00:05:18.920 situation. The sudden revival of voice of America's 00:05:18.920 --> 00:05:21.279 Farsi service. Yeah, I saw that. The connection's 00:05:21.279 --> 00:05:23.339 pretty direct in the material, isn't it? Very 00:05:23.339 --> 00:05:25.839 clear. The conflict suddenly threw a spotlight 00:05:25.839 --> 00:05:28.759 on the value of soft power, you know, countering 00:05:28.759 --> 00:05:31.439 state propaganda inside Iran, which is usually 00:05:31.439 --> 00:05:34.319 such a closed shop information wise. And the 00:05:34.319 --> 00:05:36.959 history here matters. The material reminds us 00:05:36.959 --> 00:05:40.420 Trump had basically cut VOA's funding, killed 00:05:40.420 --> 00:05:42.899 off its effectiveness. Seemed like he just didn't 00:05:42.899 --> 00:05:45.300 buy the whole idea of trying to influence people 00:05:45.300 --> 00:05:48.120 abroad through information. But facing a real 00:05:48.120 --> 00:05:51.500 information war during a potential hot war, somebody 00:05:51.500 --> 00:05:54.029 had a change of heart. Fast. Resulting in this 00:05:54.029 --> 00:05:56.750 scramble, right? Rehiring dozens of Farsi speakers 00:05:56.750 --> 00:05:59.110 who'd been sidelined. We're talking like 50 full 00:05:59.110 --> 00:06:01.449 time, 50 part time, used to do four hours a day. 00:06:01.850 --> 00:06:03.910 And other language staff are called too. And 00:06:03.910 --> 00:06:06.170 the material knows Curry Lake is technically 00:06:06.170 --> 00:06:09.189 in charge of what's left of VOA, but her spokesperson 00:06:09.189 --> 00:06:11.649 had nothing to say about the rehiring surge. 00:06:12.029 --> 00:06:14.110 Despite the rush, they did get back on air pretty 00:06:14.110 --> 00:06:16.610 quickly. Reporting on the war by late Friday, 00:06:17.149 --> 00:06:19.740 website back up too. Yeah, the sources even grab 00:06:19.740 --> 00:06:22.399 some headlines, like an Israeli warning to Iranians 00:06:22.399 --> 00:06:25.420 about factory locations and a picture of Trump 00:06:25.420 --> 00:06:27.860 with a headline threatening a massive military 00:06:27.860 --> 00:06:30.800 response if Iran hit the U .S. There's a quote 00:06:30.800 --> 00:06:33.680 here from one of the VOA journalists, Patsy Witekoswara. 00:06:34.279 --> 00:06:37.899 She stressed VOA's crucial role, but, you know, 00:06:38.139 --> 00:06:40.819 lamented the audience and credibility lost while 00:06:40.819 --> 00:06:43.379 they were dark once everyone brought back. And 00:06:43.379 --> 00:06:45.240 there's even a lawsuit mentioned. Journalists 00:06:45.240 --> 00:06:47.579 arguing only Congress can actually terminate 00:06:47.579 --> 00:06:50.259 VOA, not just an administrative decision. Looking 00:06:50.259 --> 00:06:53.560 at the budget numbers, $267 .5 million a year 00:06:53.560 --> 00:06:56.470 for VOA. The material calls that a Tiny drop 00:06:56.470 --> 00:06:59.230 in the bucket overall. But then adds, dryly, 00:06:59.370 --> 00:07:01.569 that it's about the cost of eight military parades. 00:07:01.730 --> 00:07:04.170 Ouch. Suggesting maybe maintaining soft power 00:07:04.170 --> 00:07:07.069 infrastructure is an obviously tough call compared 00:07:07.069 --> 00:07:09.769 to other priorities really puts the perceived 00:07:09.769 --> 00:07:11.930 value of things in perspective. OK, let's pull 00:07:11.930 --> 00:07:14.509 the lens back a bit now. Away from the immediate 00:07:14.509 --> 00:07:17.170 conflict zone. How does the wider world see the 00:07:17.170 --> 00:07:19.829 U .S. right now based on some reason polling 00:07:19.829 --> 00:07:22.370 in our material? Yeah, the section starts with 00:07:22.370 --> 00:07:25.490 a really striking observation that Many Americans 00:07:25.490 --> 00:07:29.470 maybe don't get that big military parades. Elsewhere, 00:07:29.550 --> 00:07:32.329 that's often seen as dictator stuff. And the 00:07:32.329 --> 00:07:35.230 people abroad are often way more tuned into what's 00:07:35.230 --> 00:07:37.730 happening in the U .S. than many Americans realize. 00:07:37.949 --> 00:07:40.850 The evidence for this comes from two new international 00:07:40.850 --> 00:07:42.870 polls discussed here. And the main finding, it 00:07:42.870 --> 00:07:46.209 seems pretty stark. Very clear. Global attitudes 00:07:46.209 --> 00:07:48.790 towards the U .S. are strongly, strongly tied 00:07:48.790 --> 00:07:51.500 to who's president. Democrats in the White House, 00:07:51.680 --> 00:07:53.720 much more popular globally than Republicans. 00:07:53.759 --> 00:07:56.079 Breaking it down by country type, some nations 00:07:56.079 --> 00:07:58.459 seem consistently positive about the U .S., right? 00:07:58.560 --> 00:08:01.199 Nigeria, Israel, India, Kenya mentioned here. 00:08:01.399 --> 00:08:03.339 Right, regardless of who's president. But the 00:08:03.339 --> 00:08:06.000 contrast with many European countries is huge. 00:08:06.399 --> 00:08:09.199 Netherlands, France, Spain, Germany, Sweden. 00:08:09.519 --> 00:08:11.579 Confidence tanks under Republicans. Plummets. 00:08:11.980 --> 00:08:14.240 The material cites current net approval scores 00:08:14.240 --> 00:08:17.620 like minus 55 to minus 70 during this sort of 00:08:17.620 --> 00:08:21.120 Trump v2 .0. What about views on U .S. democracy 00:08:21.120 --> 00:08:24.699 itself? Interestingly, the pattern flips. More 00:08:24.699 --> 00:08:27.939 autocratic countries, Nigeria, Hungary, Israel, 00:08:28.160 --> 00:08:31.519 Kenya, Argentina, they tend to rate U .S. democracy 00:08:31.519 --> 00:08:34.059 positively. Whereas more established democracies, 00:08:34.279 --> 00:08:37.820 France, Germany, Australia, Sweden, rate it negatively. 00:08:38.200 --> 00:08:40.559 The rough takeaway seems to be the more autocratic 00:08:40.559 --> 00:08:43.840 a country, the more its people admire the U .S. 00:08:43.960 --> 00:08:46.511 system right now and vice versa, which is... 00:08:46.509 --> 00:08:49.269 quite a finding. There's also a big split within 00:08:49.269 --> 00:08:51.789 countries, ideologically. Yeah, people on the 00:08:51.789 --> 00:08:54.210 right are about 30 points more positive about 00:08:54.210 --> 00:08:56.149 the U .S. than people on the left in the same 00:08:56.149 --> 00:08:59.490 country, even wider gap among extremists. The 00:08:59.490 --> 00:09:02.309 example given is Germany's AFD party supporters, 00:09:02.570 --> 00:09:05.330 the far right there, described as wildly supportive 00:09:05.330 --> 00:09:07.750 of Trump. Apparently, viewing the U .S. as a 00:09:07.750 --> 00:09:10.429 test case for multiracial democracy and believing 00:09:10.429 --> 00:09:13.409 it's failing. Wow, okay. Was there any area where 00:09:13.409 --> 00:09:15.909 the U .S. did score relatively well? One question, 00:09:15.909 --> 00:09:18.059 yeah. Whether a country is better off with a 00:09:18.059 --> 00:09:20.240 strong leader willing to break rules, even commit 00:09:20.240 --> 00:09:23.080 crimes. South Korea may be reflecting their own 00:09:23.080 --> 00:09:25.740 recent political turmoil. 75 percent agreed. 00:09:26.179 --> 00:09:30.259 U .S. 38 percent. Germany only 24 percent, which 00:09:30.259 --> 00:09:33.080 kind of aligns with AFD support levels there. 00:09:33.460 --> 00:09:35.679 Maybe reflects their history and immigration 00:09:35.679 --> 00:09:37.620 views. You mentioned the polling earlier. Start 00:09:37.620 --> 00:09:40.200 contrast again. Fifty three percent of Republicans 00:09:40.200 --> 00:09:42.379 hold anti -immigrant views, placing them between 00:09:42.379 --> 00:09:45.620 Peru and Hungary internationally. Democrats only. 00:09:45.610 --> 00:09:48.970 18 % lower than any country listed, even Sweden. 00:09:49.350 --> 00:09:51.450 So the overall conclusion from these polls and 00:09:51.450 --> 00:09:54.669 the material is pretty blunt. Yeah. The US is 00:09:54.669 --> 00:09:56.970 not very popular in the world anymore. And the 00:09:56.970 --> 00:09:59.850 potential consequence. Pragmatic. If the US needs 00:09:59.850 --> 00:10:02.190 help down the line, say, tracking terrorists 00:10:02.190 --> 00:10:04.330 after an attack, that international cooperation 00:10:04.330 --> 00:10:07.730 may not be forthcoming. Ouch. OK, shifting gears 00:10:07.730 --> 00:10:09.610 completely now. Let's look at the domestic legal 00:10:09.610 --> 00:10:12.070 front, specifically Donald Trump's court cases. 00:10:12.230 --> 00:10:14.190 Right. The material covers a few recent developments, 00:10:14.350 --> 00:10:16.370 kind of a mixed bag for him, a temporary win, 00:10:16.529 --> 00:10:19.330 some losses. First, the Mahmoud Khalil detention 00:10:19.330 --> 00:10:21.769 case. Trump gets a win, the material says, but 00:10:21.769 --> 00:10:24.350 it's temporary. And the context is key. Right. 00:10:24.600 --> 00:10:27.720 A judge initially ordered Khalil released, but 00:10:27.720 --> 00:10:30.139 that got reversed quickly last Friday. And the 00:10:30.139 --> 00:10:31.860 government's reason for holding him keeps changing, 00:10:32.080 --> 00:10:34.279 right? Exactly. First, it was subverting foreign 00:10:34.279 --> 00:10:37.419 policy judge called that absurd. Now it's tiny 00:10:37.419 --> 00:10:40.799 errors on his green card application, not listing 00:10:40.799 --> 00:10:43.580 every single past employer or membership. Which 00:10:43.580 --> 00:10:46.399 the judge himself noted is really unusual. People 00:10:46.399 --> 00:10:48.600 aren't usually held in prison for months without 00:10:48.600 --> 00:10:50.990 trial over stuff like that. And Khalil disputes 00:10:50.990 --> 00:10:53.730 it anyway, says his unpaid UN internship was 00:10:53.730 --> 00:10:56.950 part of grad studies, not employment. The material 00:10:56.950 --> 00:11:00.190 suggests the judge clearly guess it, understands 00:11:00.190 --> 00:11:02.889 Khalil's likely being held because Trump dislikes 00:11:02.889 --> 00:11:05.629 pro -Palestinian activists, despite the flimsy 00:11:05.629 --> 00:11:08.610 charge. But still didn't order release, just 00:11:08.610 --> 00:11:10.730 said he can seek a bond hearing. So for now, 00:11:10.769 --> 00:11:13.389 the administration kept him detained. A win of 00:11:13.389 --> 00:11:16.129 sorts. OK, but where did Trump lose one? This 00:11:16.129 --> 00:11:18.289 was about an executive order on elections he 00:11:18.289 --> 00:11:21.370 issued back in March. Ah. Okay, what parts got 00:11:21.370 --> 00:11:24.590 struck down? Two key things. First, requiring 00:11:24.590 --> 00:11:26.610 absentee voters to show proof of citizenship 00:11:26.610 --> 00:11:28.809 to register. A judge knocked that down pretty 00:11:28.809 --> 00:11:30.889 fast. And the second part? Another judge upheld 00:11:30.889 --> 00:11:33.269 that first ruling and also struck down the bit 00:11:33.269 --> 00:11:35.789 saying absentee ballots postmarked by Election 00:11:35.789 --> 00:11:38.289 Day couldn't count if they arrived after, even 00:11:38.289 --> 00:11:40.669 if the state allows it. And the reasoning from 00:11:40.669 --> 00:11:44.299 the judges? Pretty fundamental. Federalism. States 00:11:44.299 --> 00:11:46.679 run elections, not the federal government. The 00:11:46.679 --> 00:11:49.360 president can't just dictate procedures via executive 00:11:49.360 --> 00:11:53.000 order. One judge's ruling was 120 pages on the 00:11:53.000 --> 00:11:55.600 proof of citizenship point, which the material 00:11:55.600 --> 00:11:58.279 called kind of overkill for such a basic principle. 00:11:58.460 --> 00:12:00.960 This also affected overseas voters, didn't it? 00:12:01.240 --> 00:12:04.299 Military and civilians using that standard postcard 00:12:04.299 --> 00:12:06.500 form. Yeah, Trump's order added extra hurdles 00:12:06.500 --> 00:12:08.580 Congress didn't intend. The judge said he had 00:12:08.580 --> 00:12:10.960 no power to do that. Seems many state election 00:12:10.960 --> 00:12:12.919 officials knew this was overreach from the start. 00:12:13.049 --> 00:12:15.769 They understand states run elections. The material 00:12:15.769 --> 00:12:18.350 describes federalism as a concept foreign to 00:12:18.350 --> 00:12:20.610 Trump's view of a unitary executive where the 00:12:20.610 --> 00:12:22.769 president just rules by decree. OK. And finally, 00:12:22.769 --> 00:12:25.370 on the legal front, the E. Jean Carroll case. 00:12:25.730 --> 00:12:28.450 Trump loses another appeal here. Right. Quick 00:12:28.450 --> 00:12:31.529 recap. Carroll accused him of assault. He denied 00:12:31.529 --> 00:12:34.470 it. She sued for defamation. Won five million 00:12:34.470 --> 00:12:37.710 dollars last year. He appealed. Lost to the Second 00:12:37.710 --> 00:12:40.129 Circuit. Then as the full appeals court, the 00:12:40.129 --> 00:12:42.879 on bank panel. to rehear it. And lost that, too, 00:12:42.879 --> 00:12:45.379 just on Friday, 8 to 2 against rehearing it. 00:12:45.600 --> 00:12:48.059 The judge writing for the majority, Myrna Perez, 00:12:48.379 --> 00:12:51.519 was pretty direct. Yeah. Simply relitigating 00:12:51.519 --> 00:12:53.840 a case is not an appropriate use of the UnBog 00:12:53.840 --> 00:12:57.600 procedure. Basically, you lost, move on. And 00:12:57.600 --> 00:13:00.679 the two dissenters, Trump appointees. So what's 00:13:00.679 --> 00:13:02.980 the analysis of Trump's legal strategy here? 00:13:03.559 --> 00:13:05.960 Not necessarily aiming to win on the merits. 00:13:06.259 --> 00:13:09.200 More about delay. Constant appeals, hoping the 00:13:09.200 --> 00:13:12.139 other side just... gives up eventually, runs 00:13:12.139 --> 00:13:14.080 out of steam or money. But Carroll's lawyer, 00:13:14.279 --> 00:13:17.539 Robbie Kaplan, described here as a human pit 00:13:17.539 --> 00:13:20.139 bull, someone who never gives up. Their joint 00:13:20.139 --> 00:13:22.620 statement was brief. E. Jean Carroll is very 00:13:22.620 --> 00:13:25.230 pleased. Is this the absolute end, though? Probably 00:13:25.230 --> 00:13:27.389 not. The material says the Supreme Court appeal 00:13:27.389 --> 00:13:29.769 is almost certainly coming. On what grounds? 00:13:30.309 --> 00:13:32.110 The Second Circuit rejected his argument about 00:13:32.110 --> 00:13:34.529 allowing the Access Hollywood tape as evidence. 00:13:34.769 --> 00:13:37.409 They did. Carroll's team used it to show a pattern, 00:13:37.529 --> 00:13:39.830 counter the defense. The appeals court saw no 00:13:39.830 --> 00:13:41.990 problem with that. So will the Supreme Court 00:13:41.990 --> 00:13:44.470 even take it? That's the interesting question 00:13:44.470 --> 00:13:47.490 posed here. It looks like a straightforward defamation 00:13:47.490 --> 00:13:51.230 case, not typical SCOTUS material. Doesn't scream 00:13:51.230 --> 00:13:54.009 constitutional issue unless unless his lawyers 00:13:54.009 --> 00:13:55.970 try to argue the Constitution somehow gives the 00:13:55.970 --> 00:13:59.070 president the right to defame anyone The material 00:13:59.070 --> 00:14:02.330 asks rhetorically whether the Supremes will buy 00:14:02.330 --> 00:14:04.950 it So the delay strategy continues potentially 00:14:04.950 --> 00:14:07.210 all the way to the top seems likely Let's move 00:14:07.210 --> 00:14:09.409 to what the material calls a weird political 00:14:09.409 --> 00:14:12.970 dynamic now around Trump and immigration Yeah, 00:14:12.970 --> 00:14:16.250 the paradox is this his broad goals on immigration 00:14:16.250 --> 00:14:20.230 pretty popular in polls But his specific policies, 00:14:20.570 --> 00:14:23.429 especially how they're carried out, wildly unpopular. 00:14:23.690 --> 00:14:25.889 It comes down to framing, doesn't it? Crucially, 00:14:26.289 --> 00:14:28.490 Democrats frame it around due process, government 00:14:28.490 --> 00:14:31.110 overreach, think unrest in LA over enforcement 00:14:31.110 --> 00:14:33.929 tactics. Trump frames it purely as crime and 00:14:33.929 --> 00:14:36.269 border security. And his framing works for him. 00:14:36.629 --> 00:14:38.710 Polls show him positive on crime plus nine, positive 00:14:38.710 --> 00:14:41.289 on border security plus four. The analysis is 00:14:41.289 --> 00:14:43.289 he's convinced enough voters that the people 00:14:43.289 --> 00:14:46.350 he targets are criminals who, quote, deserve 00:14:46.350 --> 00:14:48.970 what they're getting. That makes an otherwise 00:14:48.970 --> 00:14:51.850 unpopular argument popular. You see this when 00:14:51.850 --> 00:14:53.870 you ask about deportation differently. Trump 00:14:53.870 --> 00:14:56.909 voters want everyone out. Everyone agrees violent 00:14:56.909 --> 00:14:59.470 criminals should go. But registered voters overall, 00:14:59.669 --> 00:15:01.629 they generally do not want to deport long -term 00:15:01.629 --> 00:15:03.950 residents with no criminal record or DREAMers. 00:15:04.110 --> 00:15:06.309 The material breaks down by race too. Black and 00:15:06.309 --> 00:15:08.700 Latino voters are much more forgiving. Yeah, 00:15:08.879 --> 00:15:12.980 for dreamers, 74 % of Latinos, 72 % of black 00:15:12.980 --> 00:15:16.340 voters want them to stay, only 56 % of white 00:15:16.340 --> 00:15:19.039 voters. Even for immigrants married to U .S. 00:15:19.059 --> 00:15:22.059 citizens, over 60 % across all groups say let 00:15:22.059 --> 00:15:24.340 them stay. The analysis suggests Trump doesn't 00:15:24.340 --> 00:15:27.000 need polls for this. He gets intuitively the 00:15:27.000 --> 00:15:30.100 power of lying about who's actually being deported. 00:15:30.360 --> 00:15:32.679 There's this big disconnect between the narrative 00:15:32.679 --> 00:15:35.000 and the reality described. People don't grasp 00:15:35.000 --> 00:15:37.740 that ICE rounding folks up at churches or hospitals 00:15:37.740 --> 00:15:40.320 means they're mostly not violent criminals. But 00:15:40.320 --> 00:15:43.059 the story Trump tells is persuasive. There's 00:15:43.059 --> 00:15:46.039 a YouGov poll cited, 53 percent of all voters, 00:15:46.179 --> 00:15:49.460 including 43 percent of Latinos, 46 percent of 00:15:49.460 --> 00:15:51.860 independents think Trump is prioritizing violent 00:15:51.860 --> 00:15:54.840 criminals. When the analysis says ICE makes no 00:15:54.840 --> 00:15:57.779 effort at all to find actual violent criminals 00:15:57.779 --> 00:15:59.980 because it's hard work and doesn't make for good 00:15:59.980 --> 00:16:02.820 television, which Trump apparently wants. Wow. 00:16:03.580 --> 00:16:06.120 OK, let's pivot now to Trump's personal finances. 00:16:06.700 --> 00:16:10.200 How the presidency seems to be, well, paying 00:16:10.200 --> 00:16:12.240 off. Yeah. The starting question is interesting. 00:16:12.379 --> 00:16:15.620 Why fight so hard over piddling $88 million court 00:16:15.620 --> 00:16:17.940 findings like the Carroll one when he reported 00:16:17.940 --> 00:16:20.639 making over $600 million last year? The stated 00:16:20.639 --> 00:16:23.820 reason offered is image. Fighting avoids admitting 00:16:23.820 --> 00:16:25.960 assault, and he cares very much about that image. 00:16:26.279 --> 00:16:27.779 Although the material immediately points out 00:16:27.779 --> 00:16:29.519 the contradiction with the Access Hollywood tape, 00:16:29.559 --> 00:16:31.259 where he seemed to want people to think he assaults 00:16:31.259 --> 00:16:33.879 women. It's complex. So where's the $600 million 00:16:33.879 --> 00:16:35.960 coming from based on his disclosure form? Biggest 00:16:35.960 --> 00:16:38.629 chunk. $57 million from his crypto business. 00:16:38.809 --> 00:16:40.649 Which is funny because his past stance on crypto 00:16:40.649 --> 00:16:44.549 was negative. Very highly volatile based on thin 00:16:44.549 --> 00:16:47.389 air. Bitcoin seems like a scam. Now that he's 00:16:47.389 --> 00:16:50.759 making money, he's hugging it tightly. Specific 00:16:50.759 --> 00:16:53.200 activities mentioned. Dinner for top investors 00:16:53.200 --> 00:16:55.700 in his Trump P -coin, basically selling FaceTime, 00:16:56.159 --> 00:16:58.779 a stake in World Liberty Financial, issuing a 00:16:58.779 --> 00:17:02.220 stablecoin called USD1. And the UAE bought $2 00:17:02.220 --> 00:17:04.920 billion worth of it. And what did the UAE get 00:17:04.920 --> 00:17:06.900 in return? It has not been made public. That's 00:17:06.900 --> 00:17:09.519 what the material says. There's also a link made 00:17:09.519 --> 00:17:12.559 to potential legislation. A big, beautiful bill. 00:17:12.740 --> 00:17:14.640 Yeah, Senator Elizabeth Warren quoted calling 00:17:14.640 --> 00:17:17.240 it a superhighway for Donald Trump's corruption. 00:17:17.599 --> 00:17:20.029 Why? What would it do? Allow banks, companies 00:17:20.029 --> 00:17:22.190 to issue stable coins with minimal oversight. 00:17:22.609 --> 00:17:24.529 The worry is they could be marketed as safe, 00:17:24.990 --> 00:17:27.390 value shoots up, then collapses like a Ponzi 00:17:27.390 --> 00:17:29.829 scheme when new money dries up. OK, besides crypto, 00:17:29.890 --> 00:17:33.109 what else? Second biggest, Mar -a -Lago. $50 00:17:33.109 --> 00:17:37.089 million. Mentions the huge initiation fee, $600K, 00:17:37.190 --> 00:17:39.849 plus other fees. Licensing his name. $15 million. 00:17:40.450 --> 00:17:42.890 A Trump property in Dubai used as an example. 00:17:43.029 --> 00:17:46.500 And smaller stuff. Bible sales, $1 .3 million, 00:17:46.819 --> 00:17:49.740 helped by the Maypa pitch, apparently. Sneakers, 00:17:49.880 --> 00:17:54.599 $2 .5 million. Swiss watches, $2 .8 million made 00:17:54.599 --> 00:17:56.640 in the Wyoming part of Switzerland. The material 00:17:56.640 --> 00:17:59.220 notes Riley. Hundreds of businesses worldwide. 00:17:59.359 --> 00:18:02.720 The observation is, it's surprising he has any 00:18:02.720 --> 00:18:04.920 time at all left over for president. Indeed. 00:18:05.220 --> 00:18:07.519 OK, let's zoom in on some specific political 00:18:07.519 --> 00:18:09.940 races in New York now. Right. The material looks 00:18:09.940 --> 00:18:13.819 at the NYC mayoral race and a key house. campaign. 00:18:14.180 --> 00:18:16.839 For mayor, Michael Bloomberg seems very interested. 00:18:17.000 --> 00:18:18.940 More than passing interest, yeah. Even though 00:18:18.940 --> 00:18:21.660 he and Andrew Cuomo used to be enemies, really 00:18:21.660 --> 00:18:23.740 disliked each other. But they've buried the hatchet. 00:18:23.880 --> 00:18:26.359 Prompted by Bloomberg dropping five million dollars 00:18:26.359 --> 00:18:28.660 into a super PAC supporting Cuomo's comeback 00:18:28.660 --> 00:18:31.700 attempt, likely eyeing a 2028 presidential run. 00:18:31.900 --> 00:18:35.140 So why would Bloomberg back Cuomo now? Less about 00:18:35.140 --> 00:18:37.539 liking Cuomo, the analysis suggests, more about 00:18:37.539 --> 00:18:40.410 who's challenging him. Democratic Socialist Zeron 00:18:40.410 --> 00:18:43.029 Mamdani closing in in the polls. Describe Mamdani 00:18:43.029 --> 00:18:45.730 again. 33 years old, second term state assembly, 00:18:46.369 --> 00:18:49.809 platform, free city buses, rent freeze, maybe 00:18:49.809 --> 00:18:52.829 nationalizing grocery stores, tax the rich. Called 00:18:52.829 --> 00:18:55.809 Israeli actions in Gaza genocide. And Bloomberg's 00:18:55.809 --> 00:18:58.150 tick. Doesn't think a 33 year old Palestinian 00:18:58.150 --> 00:19:00.970 activist who has never run anything can manage 00:19:00.970 --> 00:19:05.339 NYC's $117 billion budget? sees it as sloganeering, 00:19:05.559 --> 00:19:07.440 doubts he can stand up to Trump, compared to 00:19:07.440 --> 00:19:10.180 Cuomo, who, for all his faults, called a sleazeball 00:19:10.180 --> 00:19:12.920 and a jerk, here did handle huge budgets and 00:19:12.920 --> 00:19:15.940 got a lot done as governor. Like what? Legalizing 00:19:15.940 --> 00:19:18.480 same -sex marriage, cannabis, raising minimum 00:19:18.480 --> 00:19:21.839 wage, paid family leave, gun control, big infrastructure, 00:19:22.420 --> 00:19:25.079 second out of subway, Tappan Zee Bridge, Moynihan 00:19:25.079 --> 00:19:27.960 Hall, LaGuardia Redo. Bloomberg knows mayors 00:19:27.960 --> 00:19:30.299 need to get stuff done. thinks Mom Donnie hasn't. 00:19:30.440 --> 00:19:32.660 Cuomo's super peak is spending big. Erased $18 00:19:32.660 --> 00:19:35.039 million spending since March. Elections just 00:19:35.039 --> 00:19:37.140 over a week away. And ranked choice voting makes 00:19:37.140 --> 00:19:40.519 it complex. Neither near 50%. Second, third chases 00:19:40.519 --> 00:19:42.900 matter. Republican Curtis Sliwa, Independent 00:19:42.900 --> 00:19:45.359 Eric Adams also running. OK, now slightly north. 00:19:45.759 --> 00:19:48.380 NY17 House race already intense. Yeah, going 00:19:48.380 --> 00:19:50.700 full blast, even though primary isn't until June 00:19:50.700 --> 00:19:53.279 2026, over a year away. What's the district like? 00:19:54.380 --> 00:19:58.589 NY17. D plus one, so leans slightly dim. Affluent, 00:19:58.930 --> 00:20:01.670 119 carol, median income, but balanced politically. 00:20:02.230 --> 00:20:05.150 Held by Republican Mike Lawler now. And Democrats 00:20:05.150 --> 00:20:07.809 see an opening. They smell blood, think it's 00:20:07.809 --> 00:20:09.849 flippable. Plus, Lawler might run for governor, 00:20:09.990 --> 00:20:12.069 though Stefanik could block that. Remind us of 00:20:12.069 --> 00:20:14.349 the history there. Used to be Dem, Lowey, then 00:20:14.349 --> 00:20:17.519 Jones. Jones left to avoid a primary with Maloney 00:20:17.519 --> 00:20:20.440 lost elsewhere. Maloney won the NY17 primary 00:20:20.440 --> 00:20:23.660 but lost the general to Lawler, so the demnomination 00:20:23.660 --> 00:20:25.839 is valuable. And the field is crowded already. 00:20:26.160 --> 00:20:28.279 Seven Democrats running formally, three more 00:20:28.279 --> 00:20:31.900 expected. Primaries weigh off June 23, 2026. 00:20:32.200 --> 00:20:34.259 Any names mentioned from a recent forum? Kate 00:20:34.259 --> 00:20:37.180 Connolly, Jessica Reinman, Jeremy Sallin. Main 00:20:37.180 --> 00:20:39.839 topic was cost of living. Others named. Peter 00:20:39.839 --> 00:20:42.099 Chatsky, Beth Davidson, F .E. Philip Staley, 00:20:42.279 --> 00:20:45.559 Mike Sachs. His goal is unfuck our country. John 00:20:45.559 --> 00:20:48.220 Sullivan. None widely known yet. Room for bigger 00:20:48.220 --> 00:20:50.420 names, maybe? Specific strategies noted. Philip 00:20:50.420 --> 00:20:52.740 Staley trying to mobilize Latinos, a fifth of 00:20:52.740 --> 00:20:55.359 voters. Davidson, who is Jewish, hoping to win 00:20:55.359 --> 00:20:58.079 back Orthodox Jews in Rockland County. 30K voters. 00:20:58.380 --> 00:21:00.799 Good fundraiser. And the local party. Westchester 00:21:00.799 --> 00:21:03.539 County Dems really want this seat back. likely 00:21:03.539 --> 00:21:05.960 to put its thumb on the scale for the strongest 00:21:05.960 --> 00:21:08.180 general election candidate eventually. A local 00:21:08.180 --> 00:21:11.180 strategist, quote, sums it up. Yeah, voters want 00:21:11.180 --> 00:21:13.500 a fighter and winner, care less about platforms 00:21:13.500 --> 00:21:16.299 or ideology, especially if Lawler runs again. 00:21:16.720 --> 00:21:19.660 So early days, but already heating up. Definitely. 00:21:19.779 --> 00:21:22.660 Let's shift now to a specific sad event from 00:21:22.660 --> 00:21:24.980 the weekend. Right. This happened during those 00:21:24.980 --> 00:21:29.380 nationwide No Kings rallies on Saturday. Material 00:21:29.380 --> 00:21:32.099 notes they were mostly peaceful, thousands marching, 00:21:32.299 --> 00:21:35.839 no riots. But one unfortunate incident in Salt 00:21:35.839 --> 00:21:38.819 Lake City. Yeah. Mentions these volunteer peacekeeping 00:21:38.819 --> 00:21:41.220 teams at rallies trying to de -escalate things. 00:21:41.539 --> 00:21:44.160 Some armed, most not. What happened in Salt Lake 00:21:44.160 --> 00:21:47.099 City? 10 ,000 people marching peacefully against 00:21:47.099 --> 00:21:49.779 Trump's immigration actions. A peacekeeper saw 00:21:49.779 --> 00:21:52.579 a man, Arthur O. Gamboa, with an AR -15 -style 00:21:52.579 --> 00:21:55.359 rifle, fired three shots. And the result? One 00:21:55.359 --> 00:21:57.819 hit Gamboa, minor injury, but another hit an 00:21:57.819 --> 00:22:00.640 innocent bystander, Arthur Falasa Alou. Kill 00:22:00.640 --> 00:22:03.019 him. Tragically. What happened after the shots? 00:22:03.480 --> 00:22:06.059 Protester scattered. No more violence. And the 00:22:06.059 --> 00:22:08.980 legal status. Gamboa, the man with the rifle. 00:22:09.140 --> 00:22:11.279 Taken into custody quickly, the peacekeeper. 00:22:11.829 --> 00:22:14.529 cooperated fully, but was not taken into custody. 00:22:14.730 --> 00:22:16.829 The material ends with a thought on the peacekeeper. 00:22:17.069 --> 00:22:19.549 He may have saved many lives, a really stark, 00:22:19.549 --> 00:22:22.589 difficult situation. A tragic outcome from an 00:22:22.589 --> 00:22:25.390 attempt to keep peace. Yeah. Okay, finally, let's 00:22:25.390 --> 00:22:28.490 circle back to a dynamic inside the Republican 00:22:28.490 --> 00:22:32.769 Party, described with some colorful analogies. 00:22:32.869 --> 00:22:35.589 Yeah, the tacos concept. Comes from all hat and 00:22:35.589 --> 00:22:39.170 no cattle. Also, all bark and no bite. Even Shakespeare. 00:22:39.740 --> 00:22:43.019 A tale told by an idiot signifying nothing. Used 00:22:43.019 --> 00:22:46.200 to describe politicians who talk tough but don't 00:22:46.200 --> 00:22:48.380 follow through. Exactly. Specifically calling 00:22:48.380 --> 00:22:51.440 out Republican Senators Ron Johnson, Mike Lee, 00:22:51.640 --> 00:22:54.000 Rick Scott. What did they do? Condemned some 00:22:54.000 --> 00:22:56.359 big spending bill for weeks, claimed it would 00:22:56.359 --> 00:22:58.880 ruin the deficit, etc. But the taco thing is... 00:22:58.880 --> 00:23:01.019 As the vote gets close, despite all the noise, 00:23:01.099 --> 00:23:02.980 they're expected to vote for the bill they just 00:23:02.980 --> 00:23:05.880 trashed. What are their justifications now, according 00:23:05.880 --> 00:23:08.279 to the material? Johnson's toned it down, saying, 00:23:08.779 --> 00:23:12.160 we all want to see President Trump succeed. Material 00:23:12.160 --> 00:23:14.559 interprets that as him being a powered who stands 00:23:14.559 --> 00:23:17.119 for nothing. Mike Lee. Got some crumbs thrown 00:23:17.119 --> 00:23:20.519 his way. Minor deregulation stuff added to the 00:23:20.519 --> 00:23:22.980 bill. Let's him pretend he got a big victory. 00:23:23.559 --> 00:23:25.819 And Rick Scott. Now saying the bill's important 00:23:25.819 --> 00:23:28.279 for Florida, which makes the material ask why 00:23:28.279 --> 00:23:30.119 wasn't it important two weeks ago when he was 00:23:30.119 --> 00:23:34.250 attacking it? And Republicans have a 53 -47 Senate 00:23:34.250 --> 00:23:37.190 majority, so their votes might be needed. Or 00:23:37.190 --> 00:23:39.190 maybe it's just about party unity. Seems more 00:23:39.190 --> 00:23:41.670 like public posturing versus eventually falling 00:23:41.670 --> 00:23:43.829 in line, regardless of the noise they made beforehand. 00:23:44.069 --> 00:23:46.410 Right. So we've covered a lot of ground today. 00:23:46.750 --> 00:23:48.990 A real deep dive through this material. We really 00:23:48.990 --> 00:23:51.869 have. From the Israel -Iran conflict's ripples. 00:23:52.160 --> 00:23:56.140 U .S. politics, economics, the surprise VOA comeback 00:23:56.140 --> 00:23:58.740 showing soft powers value. To how the world sees 00:23:58.740 --> 00:24:00.779 the U .S. right now, those shifting poll numbers, 00:24:01.200 --> 00:24:03.779 Trump's legal fights and that delay strategy. 00:24:03.980 --> 00:24:06.519 The weird disconnect on immigration popularity 00:24:06.519 --> 00:24:09.680 versus policy, his finances, especially crypto. 00:24:10.140 --> 00:24:12.960 Then down to the specifics of NY politics heating 00:24:12.960 --> 00:24:16.799 up, that tragic Salt Lake City incident and the 00:24:16.799 --> 00:24:19.099 tacos in the Senate. It's a wide range, but you 00:24:19.099 --> 00:24:22.299 see patterns, right? How fast things shift, like 00:24:22.299 --> 00:24:25.710 VOA. how much perception matters globally and 00:24:25.710 --> 00:24:28.390 at home, how personal interests connect to public 00:24:28.390 --> 00:24:30.849 action. Absolutely. So maybe a final thought 00:24:30.849 --> 00:24:33.390 for you, listening. We've seen examples like 00:24:33.390 --> 00:24:35.309 the sound and fury from politicians who then 00:24:35.309 --> 00:24:38.289 vote differently, or the power of persuasive 00:24:38.289 --> 00:24:40.710 narrative on immigration that maybe doesn't match 00:24:40.710 --> 00:24:42.950 reality, given all that complexity. How do you 00:24:42.950 --> 00:24:44.809 personally sort through it all? How do you tell 00:24:44.809 --> 00:24:47.269 what's a real significant shift or motivation 00:24:47.269 --> 00:24:49.829 versus what might just be noise or performance 00:24:49.829 --> 00:24:52.289 or temporary spin? something to think about as 00:24:52.289 --> 00:24:54.750 you navigate the news. That's our deep dive for 00:24:54.750 --> 00:24:55.890 today. Thanks for joining us.