WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.339 Welcome to the deep dive. This is where we take 00:00:02.339 --> 00:00:04.820 that stack of sources you send us, articles, 00:00:04.940 --> 00:00:07.839 reports, all sorts of things, and well, we dive 00:00:07.839 --> 00:00:10.699 deep. We look for the key insights, the surprising 00:00:10.699 --> 00:00:12.960 connections, basically trying to cut through 00:00:12.960 --> 00:00:15.599 the noise for you. So for this deep dive, we're 00:00:15.599 --> 00:00:17.879 unpacking a whole collection of recent reports. 00:00:18.140 --> 00:00:21.260 They're centered around government actions, economic 00:00:21.260 --> 00:00:24.719 signs, and some real challenges hitting established 00:00:24.719 --> 00:00:27.420 institutions. It's all straight from the material 00:00:27.420 --> 00:00:29.480 you provided. And it's quite a mix, isn't it? 00:00:29.519 --> 00:00:32.240 We've got sources touching on international travel 00:00:32.240 --> 00:00:35.200 policy, trade tensions, but also the nitty gritty 00:00:35.200 --> 00:00:37.299 of how the U .S. government collects its economic 00:00:37.299 --> 00:00:40.119 data. Plus, these pretty significant legal and 00:00:40.119 --> 00:00:42.179 institutional challenges for universities, even 00:00:42.179 --> 00:00:44.619 parts of the justice system. The idea is to connect 00:00:44.619 --> 00:00:46.740 these dots, figure out what really matters and 00:00:46.740 --> 00:00:49.679 why it matters. Exactly. It ranges from travel 00:00:49.679 --> 00:00:52.100 bans to trade fights, data collection methods 00:00:52.100 --> 00:00:55.140 to university accreditation battles. It's a lot, 00:00:55.200 --> 00:00:57.280 but we'll sort through it. OK, let's get started. 00:00:57.369 --> 00:00:59.490 First up, let's talk about a policy that really 00:00:59.490 --> 00:01:02.380 defined the first Trump administration. The travel 00:01:02.380 --> 00:01:05.319 ban. The sources say there's a new version, travel 00:01:05.319 --> 00:01:08.920 ban v2 .0, announced just yesterday. That's right. 00:01:09.000 --> 00:01:11.239 And this one's pretty wide -reaching. It completely 00:01:11.239 --> 00:01:13.780 bans citizens from 12 countries, and then there 00:01:13.780 --> 00:01:15.879 are partial bans for seven others. Do the sources 00:01:15.879 --> 00:01:18.500 list the countries? They do. The full ban list 00:01:18.500 --> 00:01:21.299 includes Afghanistan, Chad, Republic of the Congo, 00:01:21.760 --> 00:01:25.579 Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, 00:01:26.140 --> 00:01:29.150 Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. and the partial 00:01:29.150 --> 00:01:33.209 list. Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, 00:01:33.450 --> 00:01:36.010 Turkmenistan, and Venezuela. OK, so how does 00:01:36.010 --> 00:01:39.390 this version V2 .0 stack up against the original 00:01:39.390 --> 00:01:41.250 one, the one that got tied up in courts for so 00:01:41.250 --> 00:01:44.010 long? Well, you'll remember V1 .0 faced a ton 00:01:44.010 --> 00:01:46.230 of legal challenges. Eventually, the Supreme 00:01:46.230 --> 00:01:49.090 Court upheld it 5 -4. They cited national security, 00:01:49.310 --> 00:01:51.590 basically giving the president pretty broad powers 00:01:51.590 --> 00:01:53.290 in that area. Then, of course, Joe Biden lifted 00:01:53.290 --> 00:01:56.109 those restrictions back in 2021. And this new 00:01:56.109 --> 00:01:58.560 ban? The sources suggest there was maybe more 00:01:58.560 --> 00:02:00.920 groundwork laid this time. Yeah, the observation 00:02:00.920 --> 00:02:03.079 in the source material is that the State Department 00:02:03.079 --> 00:02:06.000 seems to have done more, let's call it homework, 00:02:06.480 --> 00:02:08.280 possibly to help it survive court challenges 00:02:08.280 --> 00:02:11.500 better this time. The source uses this phrase 00:02:11.500 --> 00:02:14.599 describing the targeted nations as, quote, full 00:02:14.599 --> 00:02:17.280 of Muslims, but not full of oil, a threat to 00:02:17.280 --> 00:02:20.120 the United States. And the timing. The sources 00:02:20.120 --> 00:02:23.039 linked it to a recent attack. They do, specifically 00:02:23.039 --> 00:02:25.259 an attack mentioned in Colorado. And there's 00:02:25.259 --> 00:02:28.199 a quote attributed to Trump connecting the ban 00:02:28.199 --> 00:02:31.439 to preventing major foreign terror attacks on 00:02:31.439 --> 00:02:33.900 American soil, similar to his first term. The 00:02:33.900 --> 00:02:35.939 source points out he didn't name a specific attack, 00:02:36.000 --> 00:02:38.280 but right -wing media apparently drew the lines 00:02:38.280 --> 00:02:40.580 pretty quickly. So what's the simplest read on 00:02:40.580 --> 00:02:42.580 this, according to the sources? What's the real 00:02:42.580 --> 00:02:45.460 driver here? Well, the Occam's razor explanation 00:02:45.460 --> 00:02:47.900 offered is that it's basically political theater. 00:02:48.060 --> 00:02:50.180 It's designed to show the base that the administration 00:02:50.180 --> 00:02:53.159 is cracking down on, quote, dangerous foreigners. 00:02:54.419 --> 00:02:57.180 And the source suggests it might also serve to 00:02:57.180 --> 00:03:00.340 distract from trickier issues like lack of progress 00:03:00.340 --> 00:03:02.979 at the border or fights over the budget. Right. 00:03:03.180 --> 00:03:05.979 And this kind of executive action targeting countries, 00:03:05.979 --> 00:03:08.219 it connects to other things, too, like trade 00:03:08.219 --> 00:03:10.840 tensions. Your sources mention China tariffs. 00:03:11.180 --> 00:03:13.840 Absolutely. Trump's arguments for tariffs usually 00:03:13.840 --> 00:03:16.659 boil down to two things. Bringing jobs back. 00:03:16.919 --> 00:03:20.460 and making deals, getting wins. There's a quote 00:03:20.460 --> 00:03:22.419 the source highlights from his social media. 00:03:22.979 --> 00:03:25.979 I like President Yellen of China, but he's very 00:03:25.979 --> 00:03:28.539 tough and extremely hard to make a deal with. 00:03:28.699 --> 00:03:30.659 And the source reads that as him focusing on 00:03:30.659 --> 00:03:32.840 the deal -swins part. That's the interpretation, 00:03:33.099 --> 00:03:35.259 yeah. That he's really angling for a negotiation 00:03:35.259 --> 00:03:38.199 win right now. How do the sources paint Xi Jinping's 00:03:38.199 --> 00:03:41.120 position in all this? They describe him as, well, 00:03:41.340 --> 00:03:43.900 a Chinese patriot and definitely not stupid. 00:03:44.250 --> 00:03:47.389 The thinking is, he knows Trump wants a quick 00:03:47.389 --> 00:03:50.069 headline -grabbing win. And since she doesn't 00:03:50.069 --> 00:03:52.530 face elections like Trump does, he can afford 00:03:52.530 --> 00:03:55.629 to wait. The source suggests he knows Trump might 00:03:55.629 --> 00:03:57.849 get more desperate and eventually settle for 00:03:57.849 --> 00:04:00.669 less, for crumbs, as the source puts it. OK, 00:04:00.750 --> 00:04:03.669 there was that deal mentioned, May 12th in Switzerland, 00:04:04.770 --> 00:04:07.949 90 -day tariff suspension. But now they're accusing 00:04:07.949 --> 00:04:11.050 each other of breaking it. Exactly. And a really 00:04:11.050 --> 00:04:12.870 interesting piece of that puzzle, according to 00:04:12.870 --> 00:04:16.879 the source, involves rare earth materials. Trump 00:04:16.879 --> 00:04:19.959 apparently expected Xi to ease up on export restrictions 00:04:19.959 --> 00:04:22.100 for these critical minerals. That hasn't happened. 00:04:22.319 --> 00:04:24.519 Was that actually in the deal or just something 00:04:24.519 --> 00:04:26.879 Trump hoped for? The source says it's unclear. 00:04:27.060 --> 00:04:28.500 It might have been part of the formal agreement 00:04:28.500 --> 00:04:31.079 or maybe Xi just said he'd consider it. But these 00:04:31.079 --> 00:04:33.480 rare earths are vital, right? They go into tons 00:04:33.480 --> 00:04:36.800 of U .S. products. So the source speculates manufacturers 00:04:36.800 --> 00:04:38.939 might be leaning on Trump now. And Trump keeps 00:04:38.939 --> 00:04:41.259 saying he wants to get Xi on the phone. The source 00:04:41.259 --> 00:04:43.410 thinks that's a bad idea. Yeah, they call it 00:04:43.410 --> 00:04:45.870 really stupid, basically, for a few reasons. 00:04:46.189 --> 00:04:49.129 First, it signals desperation, gives G leverage. 00:04:49.589 --> 00:04:51.990 Second, there's the worry Trump might not be 00:04:51.990 --> 00:04:55.250 fully briefed on complex stuff like rare earths, 00:04:55.370 --> 00:04:57.230 whereas G would have his experts prepping him. 00:04:57.769 --> 00:05:00.230 And third, G apparently prefers his experts to 00:05:00.230 --> 00:05:02.899 hammer out the details before he steps in. So 00:05:02.899 --> 00:05:05.160 the source predicts if she does take the call. 00:05:05.439 --> 00:05:07.540 The prediction is, in their words, he'll eat 00:05:07.540 --> 00:05:10.120 his lunch. They use this moo shoo pork analogy, 00:05:10.259 --> 00:05:12.319 which apparently is like the Chinese version 00:05:12.319 --> 00:05:14.439 of getting taken to the cleaners in a negotiation. 00:05:14.819 --> 00:05:17.819 OK. Let's shift gears. Another big theme in the 00:05:17.819 --> 00:05:20.910 sources. The reliability of government information, 00:05:21.149 --> 00:05:23.509 starting with economic data. Right. Your sources 00:05:23.509 --> 00:05:25.810 picked up on the Fed's beige book report from 00:05:25.810 --> 00:05:28.490 Wednesday. The key takeaways noted were that 00:05:28.490 --> 00:05:30.589 the U .S. economy actually contracted a bit over 00:05:30.589 --> 00:05:33.790 the last six weeks, hiring slowed down and businesses 00:05:33.790 --> 00:05:36.410 and consumers are worried specifically about 00:05:36.410 --> 00:05:38.790 tariff related price increases. What did it say 00:05:38.790 --> 00:05:41.269 about inflation overall? It described prices 00:05:41.269 --> 00:05:44.740 rising at a moderate pace. But, and this is important, 00:05:45.040 --> 00:05:47.860 it also mentioned widespread reports of contacts 00:05:47.860 --> 00:05:51.279 expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster 00:05:51.279 --> 00:05:54.560 rate going forward. Some businesses are apparently 00:05:54.560 --> 00:05:56.839 already planning to pass on those tariff costs 00:05:56.839 --> 00:05:58.860 in about three months. And it wasn't uniform 00:05:58.860 --> 00:06:01.459 across the country. No, definitely regional differences. 00:06:02.300 --> 00:06:04.740 Boston, New York, Philadelphia reported slowing 00:06:04.740 --> 00:06:08.379 or declining activity. Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago 00:06:08.379 --> 00:06:11.579 saw better growth. The source specifically pulled 00:06:11.579 --> 00:06:13.720 out the mention of New York seeing heightened 00:06:13.720 --> 00:06:17.040 uncertainty and those tariff -inducted cost increases. 00:06:17.339 --> 00:06:18.879 Okay, now connect that to something else in the 00:06:18.879 --> 00:06:21.819 sources. There's a report about the Labor Department 00:06:21.819 --> 00:06:24.259 having trouble collecting this data. Yes, exactly. 00:06:24.379 --> 00:06:26.980 A report detailing cutback in how the Bureau 00:06:26.980 --> 00:06:29.779 of Labor Statistics, the BLS, collects inflation 00:06:29.779 --> 00:06:32.420 data for the Consumer Price Index and the reasons 00:06:32.420 --> 00:06:35.620 cited directly in the source. The administration's 00:06:35.620 --> 00:06:37.819 government -wide hiring freeze. What does that 00:06:37.819 --> 00:06:40.639 mean practically? Fewer samples. Pretty much. 00:06:41.319 --> 00:06:43.519 The source says the BLS is reducing sample in 00:06:43.519 --> 00:06:45.740 areas across the country. And they've actually 00:06:45.740 --> 00:06:47.779 stopped collecting price data altogether in a 00:06:47.779 --> 00:06:50.339 few specific cities because of staffing shortages. 00:06:50.620 --> 00:06:54.199 Rich cities. Lincoln, Nebraska, Provo, Utah, 00:06:54.660 --> 00:06:56.879 and Buffalo, New York. Just not enough people, 00:06:56.920 --> 00:06:59.120 the source says, due to the freeze. Why should 00:06:59.120 --> 00:07:01.500 people care? I mean, how critical is this data? 00:07:01.699 --> 00:07:03.839 Oh, it's incredibly critical. The source reminds 00:07:03.839 --> 00:07:06.379 us it's used for Social Security cost of living 00:07:06.379 --> 00:07:09.000 adjustments, for calculating interest on certain 00:07:09.000 --> 00:07:12.540 treasury bonds, TPS. It even influences private 00:07:12.540 --> 00:07:15.379 sector wages. Economists quoted in the source 00:07:15.379 --> 00:07:18.120 are worried. They think these kinds of cuts could 00:07:18.120 --> 00:07:21.199 degrade the reliability and efficacy of agencies 00:07:21.199 --> 00:07:23.819 like BLS. And it's not just consumer prices. 00:07:24.319 --> 00:07:26.439 The source mentions BLS also stopped collecting 00:07:26.439 --> 00:07:28.439 wholesale prices for the producer price index 00:07:28.439 --> 00:07:31.430 in about 350 categories. What are the specific 00:07:31.430 --> 00:07:33.670 worries, especially given the timing with tariffs? 00:07:34.110 --> 00:07:36.649 Well, one economist, Omer Sharif, is quoted saying 00:07:36.649 --> 00:07:39.189 it's worrying given that we're heading into the 00:07:39.189 --> 00:07:41.850 teeth of the tariff impact on prices. Yeah. His 00:07:41.850 --> 00:07:44.009 point is that a smaller sample size means more 00:07:44.009 --> 00:07:46.470 potential error. It can make the indexes jump 00:07:46.470 --> 00:07:49.189 around more, become more volatile, and potentially 00:07:49.189 --> 00:07:52.209 less accurate. But the BLS itself says the impact 00:07:52.209 --> 00:07:55.089 is minimal. They do say the overall impact is 00:07:55.089 --> 00:07:57.399 minimal, according to the source. but they also 00:07:57.399 --> 00:07:59.899 admit it may increase the volatility of specific 00:07:59.899 --> 00:08:03.560 items. And the source provides context. Trump 00:08:03.560 --> 00:08:06.879 froze hiring on day one, extended it, so future 00:08:06.879 --> 00:08:09.339 reports will likely have less data, too. Plus, 00:08:09.459 --> 00:08:11.420 the administration apparently got rid of advisory 00:08:11.420 --> 00:08:13.399 committees that used to work with these statistical 00:08:13.399 --> 00:08:15.800 agencies. There's also a quote from a former 00:08:15.800 --> 00:08:18.800 BLS commissioner, Erica Groshen. Yes. She estimates 00:08:18.800 --> 00:08:22.089 the agency lost about 15 % of its staff. Cites 00:08:22.089 --> 00:08:25.329 low morale and what she calls attacks on government 00:08:25.329 --> 00:08:27.930 workers and she warns It's not just the big numbers 00:08:27.930 --> 00:08:30.509 people see it threatens less visible but still 00:08:30.509 --> 00:08:33.429 important data like import prices or job opening 00:08:33.429 --> 00:08:36.009 stats Okay, so we have concerns about data collection, 00:08:36.009 --> 00:08:38.389 but the sources also talk about potential censorship 00:08:38.389 --> 00:08:40.990 of reports That's right a report claiming Trump 00:08:40.990 --> 00:08:43.230 officials are censoring government reports that 00:08:43.230 --> 00:08:46.389 Donald Trump might not like The source kind of 00:08:46.389 --> 00:08:50.129 shrugs Call it Dog Bites Man? Yeah. News, maybe 00:08:50.129 --> 00:08:52.769 not surprising, but points out it was still Politico's 00:08:52.769 --> 00:08:55.429 lead story. Is there a specific example? Yes. 00:08:55.750 --> 00:08:58.990 A routine agricultural trade report. It forecast 00:08:58.990 --> 00:09:01.250 the trade deficit would increase. That's something 00:09:01.250 --> 00:09:04.409 Trump dislikes, right? He claims tariffs reduce 00:09:04.409 --> 00:09:07.490 deficits. So according to the source, officials 00:09:07.490 --> 00:09:10.009 just killed the forecast, removed it from the 00:09:10.009 --> 00:09:12.110 report. And what's the source's take on what 00:09:12.110 --> 00:09:14.529 this signals? They see it as part of a pattern. 00:09:14.669 --> 00:09:17.889 viewing truth as basically what he wants to hear 00:09:17.889 --> 00:09:20.809 and what advances his personal goals. This raises 00:09:20.809 --> 00:09:23.429 what the source calls the unlesant but likely 00:09:23.429 --> 00:09:26.070 possibility that any fact -based report that 00:09:26.070 --> 00:09:28.409 doesn't align with his narrative might get squashed 00:09:28.409 --> 00:09:31.230 or edited to fit. What are the potential downstream 00:09:31.230 --> 00:09:33.929 effects if people stop trusting government reports? 00:09:34.309 --> 00:09:37.049 Big problems, potentially. Loss of public trust, 00:09:37.309 --> 00:09:39.820 obviously. The source quotes a former USDA chief 00:09:39.820 --> 00:09:43.200 economist, Joe Glauber, saying, objectivity is 00:09:43.200 --> 00:09:45.559 really key here. To lose that trust would be 00:09:45.559 --> 00:09:49.320 terrible. It could also lead to chaos in industries 00:09:49.320 --> 00:09:52.100 that depend on accurate data, like farmers making 00:09:52.100 --> 00:09:54.419 planting decisions or buyers setting prices. 00:09:55.159 --> 00:09:56.940 The worst case scenario sketched out is nobody 00:09:56.940 --> 00:09:59.600 takes government stats seriously anymore, causing 00:09:59.600 --> 00:10:02.440 huge uncertainty and unnecessary economic harm. 00:10:02.539 --> 00:10:04.700 Right. The source even mentioned that movie Trading 00:10:04.700 --> 00:10:07.539 Places as an analogy for bad decisions based 00:10:07.539 --> 00:10:10.320 on bad USDA reports. Exactly. That kind of ripple 00:10:10.320 --> 00:10:12.940 effect. OK. Let's pivot again. The sources also 00:10:12.940 --> 00:10:15.159 show the administration challenging other established 00:10:15.159 --> 00:10:17.960 institutions, specifically universities and parts 00:10:17.960 --> 00:10:19.600 of the Justice Department. Yeah. Your sources 00:10:19.600 --> 00:10:21.820 focus on actions against Harvard in Colombia, 00:10:21.879 --> 00:10:24.159 calling it a crusade. Start with Harvard. What's 00:10:24.159 --> 00:10:26.019 happening there? Well, the administration announced 00:10:26.019 --> 00:10:28.179 it's canceling Harvard's approval for international 00:10:28.179 --> 00:10:30.600 students. They're citing presidential powers 00:10:30.600 --> 00:10:33.440 for national security. The source describes the 00:10:33.440 --> 00:10:38.159 order itself as rambling and only semi coherent. 00:10:39.200 --> 00:10:41.399 It apparently accuses Harvard of hiding info 00:10:41.399 --> 00:10:44.440 on criminal foreign students, threatens existing 00:10:44.440 --> 00:10:47.379 visas, and it even veers into affirmative action, 00:10:47.659 --> 00:10:50.059 accusing Harvard of discriminating against non 00:10:50.059 --> 00:10:52.159 favored races. Isn't this the second time they've 00:10:52.159 --> 00:10:54.000 gone after Harvard's international students? 00:10:54.120 --> 00:10:56.360 It is. The source points out the first attempt 00:10:56.360 --> 00:10:58.659 by Homeland Security is actually still stuck 00:10:58.659 --> 00:11:00.799 in court under a temporary restraining order. 00:11:00.879 --> 00:11:03.840 So the expectation is this new attempt will also 00:11:03.840 --> 00:11:05.860 end up in court, and the source doesn't seem 00:11:05.860 --> 00:11:07.879 to rate the White House's chances very highly. 00:11:08.080 --> 00:11:09.980 Okay, what about Colombia? The issue there is 00:11:09.980 --> 00:11:12.460 accreditation. Yes. The administration is trying 00:11:12.460 --> 00:11:15.340 to get Colombia's accreditation revoked. The 00:11:15.340 --> 00:11:17.740 stated reason, according to the source, is that 00:11:17.740 --> 00:11:20.620 Colombia allegedly hasn't done enough about anti 00:11:20.620 --> 00:11:22.840 -Semitism or protecting Jewish students since 00:11:22.840 --> 00:11:25.220 the Gaza war started. They're invoking the Civil 00:11:25.220 --> 00:11:28.159 Rights Act of 1964. The source called the accreditation 00:11:28.159 --> 00:11:31.799 process very weedy. Why is it so complicated? 00:11:32.320 --> 00:11:34.539 Well, basically, the government can influence 00:11:34.539 --> 00:11:37.620 things like student aid eligibility, but it doesn't 00:11:37.620 --> 00:11:40.299 directly control accreditation. That's done by 00:11:40.299 --> 00:11:43.340 private nonprofit agencies. In Colombia's case, 00:11:43.440 --> 00:11:45.399 it's the Middle States Commission on Higher Education, 00:11:45.860 --> 00:11:49.860 or MSCHE. So this threat against Colombia, what 00:11:49.860 --> 00:11:52.220 does it actually amount to, practically speaking? 00:11:52.759 --> 00:11:55.230 According to the source, It really boils down 00:11:55.230 --> 00:11:58.029 to a letter from the Secretary of Education asking 00:11:58.029 --> 00:12:01.909 MSCHE to consider revoking accreditation. And 00:12:01.909 --> 00:12:04.769 the MSCE spokesperson apparently described the 00:12:04.769 --> 00:12:07.789 request as just a press release. The source calls 00:12:07.789 --> 00:12:10.309 that pretty serious shade in academic circles. 00:12:10.769 --> 00:12:12.769 Huh. Okay, and the likely outcome here, how long 00:12:12.769 --> 00:12:15.470 might this take? The source calls the administration's 00:12:15.470 --> 00:12:18.720 argument laughable. They think MSCHE isn't likely 00:12:18.720 --> 00:12:20.960 to jump on this. Even if they did investigate, 00:12:21.100 --> 00:12:23.200 the source estimates it would take years before 00:12:23.200 --> 00:12:25.799 anything happened, maybe a decade before Columbia 00:12:25.799 --> 00:12:27.899 was in real peril. That's long after January 00:12:27.899 --> 00:12:31.100 2029. Plus, you'd expect lawsuits to drag it 00:12:31.100 --> 00:12:33.019 out even further. Why does Columbia have to fight 00:12:33.019 --> 00:12:35.799 this so hard, though? Because losing accreditation 00:12:35.799 --> 00:12:38.889 is existential. The source says non -accredited 00:12:38.889 --> 00:12:42.129 degrees are basically worthless. Losing billions 00:12:42.129 --> 00:12:45.429 is bad. But losing accreditation means the university, 00:12:45.590 --> 00:12:48.230 for all practical purposes, ceases to exist. 00:12:48.629 --> 00:12:51.210 So they have no choice but to fight it tooth 00:12:51.210 --> 00:12:53.769 and nail. And the source drew a broader lesson 00:12:53.769 --> 00:12:55.929 from Columbia's experience. Yeah, they point 00:12:55.929 --> 00:12:58.990 out Columbia was reportedly trying to play ball, 00:12:59.450 --> 00:13:01.490 kowtowing to Trump and trying to do his bidding. 00:13:01.870 --> 00:13:04.909 as the source puts it, and their reward, having 00:13:04.909 --> 00:13:07.990 their entire existence threatened. The lesson, 00:13:08.210 --> 00:13:10.490 the source suggests, for universities and maybe 00:13:10.490 --> 00:13:12.889 law firms too, is you can never give Trump enough. 00:13:13.409 --> 00:13:15.429 They use that inch -mile analogy, escalating 00:13:15.429 --> 00:13:17.610 to light years and parsecs, like the Kessel Run. 00:13:17.889 --> 00:13:20.090 You can never satisfy the demand. There was also 00:13:20.090 --> 00:13:22.690 that Thomas Edsall piece cited, giving some context 00:13:22.690 --> 00:13:25.169 to this whole university thing. Right. Edsel 00:13:25.169 --> 00:13:28.049 argues that while the fight is nominally about 00:13:28.049 --> 00:13:30.710 anti -Semitism, it's in reality clearly about 00:13:30.710 --> 00:13:33.350 something else. His take is that Trump just hates 00:13:33.350 --> 00:13:35.330 higher education and to do, especially the elite 00:13:35.330 --> 00:13:37.529 institutions, and wants to make an example of 00:13:37.529 --> 00:13:39.769 some. The source even had that quote from a cabinet 00:13:39.769 --> 00:13:42.919 meeting. Trump justifying cutting Harvard grants 00:13:42.919 --> 00:13:45.539 because they're not American. Yeah, because it's 00:13:45.539 --> 00:13:48.419 students professors Its whole attitude is not 00:13:48.419 --> 00:13:52.679 American and they don't swallow his BS hole According 00:13:52.679 --> 00:13:54.580 to the sources account of the court and potential 00:13:54.580 --> 00:13:57.059 influences like JD Vance the source mentions 00:13:57.059 --> 00:14:00.659 Vance a Yale law grad calling universities Fundamentally 00:14:00.659 --> 00:14:03.000 corrupt and saying people need to attack the 00:14:03.000 --> 00:14:06.340 universities He apparently ended a speech quoting 00:14:06.340 --> 00:14:09.500 Nixon. The press is the enemy the professors 00:14:09.500 --> 00:14:11.570 are the enemy The source interprets that pretty 00:14:11.570 --> 00:14:15.070 broadly. Anyone critical is the enemy. Wow. And 00:14:15.070 --> 00:14:17.669 Secretary McMahon saying research is OK as long 00:14:17.669 --> 00:14:20.529 as it's in sync with administration goals. Yes, 00:14:20.610 --> 00:14:22.190 the source reads that as basically saying if 00:14:22.190 --> 00:14:24.009 your research shows we're wrong, you shouldn't 00:14:24.009 --> 00:14:26.789 do it. The example given was vaccine research 00:14:26.789 --> 00:14:29.049 potentially conflicting with a party line. But 00:14:29.049 --> 00:14:31.309 the source has also acknowledged bias within 00:14:31.309 --> 00:14:33.470 universities, right? It's not one sided. No, 00:14:33.490 --> 00:14:35.769 they do touch on that. The general observation 00:14:35.769 --> 00:14:38.570 is universities might tolerate left -leaning 00:14:38.570 --> 00:14:41.309 speech more readily than right -leaning speech. 00:14:41.649 --> 00:14:43.769 You know, welcoming speakers they agree with 00:14:43.769 --> 00:14:46.090 while others face protests. They use the old 00:14:46.090 --> 00:14:48.190 example of Professor Arthur Jensen's controversial 00:14:48.190 --> 00:14:50.830 IQ research at Berkeley. The source notes the 00:14:50.830 --> 00:14:53.970 general freakout versus maybe focusing on methodology 00:14:53.970 --> 00:14:56.470 and speculates if his results have been different 00:14:56.470 --> 00:14:59.149 he might have been praised. Again, the source 00:14:59.149 --> 00:15:02.629 stresses this isn't endorsing Jensen just illustrating 00:15:02.629 --> 00:15:05.750 a perceived general bent. So the source's bottom 00:15:05.750 --> 00:15:08.409 line on this university crusade is that Trump 00:15:08.409 --> 00:15:11.710 sees elite universities as liberal strongholds 00:15:11.710 --> 00:15:14.309 that need to be essentially torn down and rebuilt 00:15:14.309 --> 00:15:17.090 on conservative lines, which the source notes 00:15:17.090 --> 00:15:19.730 is just swapping one bias for another. And the 00:15:19.730 --> 00:15:21.590 prosperity that comes from the research at these 00:15:21.590 --> 00:15:24.029 places, apparently not a factor for him. There 00:15:24.029 --> 00:15:26.090 was that point about irony from Professor Sean 00:15:26.090 --> 00:15:28.629 Westwood too. Right. Westwood points out the 00:15:28.629 --> 00:15:31.379 contradiction. wanting to kill DEI programs for 00:15:31.379 --> 00:15:34.000 considering factors besides merit, while also 00:15:34.000 --> 00:15:36.820 openly calling to hire more conservative professors, 00:15:37.659 --> 00:15:40.159 which is hiring based on a non -merit factor 00:15:40.159 --> 00:15:42.159 political viewpoint. And the Wall Street Journal 00:15:42.159 --> 00:15:44.580 piece detailed specific actions against Harvard? 00:15:45.200 --> 00:15:47.980 Yeah, frozen grants, threats to tax status, trying 00:15:47.980 --> 00:15:50.620 to dictate curriculum and hiring. The Journal 00:15:50.620 --> 00:15:53.100 piece, as cited, suggests the government seems 00:15:53.100 --> 00:15:55.740 bent on destroying the school for the offense 00:15:55.740 --> 00:15:59.190 of fighting back. So, summing up the source's 00:15:59.190 --> 00:16:01.549 view, Trump is trying to neutralize opposition. 00:16:02.210 --> 00:16:05.350 Media, law firms may be already pressured. Universities 00:16:05.350 --> 00:16:08.389 are next on the list. The stated reasons, anti 00:16:08.389 --> 00:16:11.230 -Semitism or whatever, are seen as excuses. The 00:16:11.230 --> 00:16:13.769 real goal is to crush all opposition, and Harvard's 00:16:13.769 --> 00:16:16.610 a big target. But the source does add maybe he's 00:16:16.610 --> 00:16:18.669 bitten off more than he can chew this time. Okay, 00:16:18.769 --> 00:16:20.730 let's shift slightly again. Challenges to the 00:16:20.730 --> 00:16:23.289 justice system itself. Your sources talk about 00:16:23.289 --> 00:16:25.789 former DoJ lawyers forming a group. That's right. 00:16:25.990 --> 00:16:28.269 A new group led by Stacey Young made up of former 00:16:28.269 --> 00:16:31.090 DoJ lawyers. Their goal is specifically to help 00:16:31.090 --> 00:16:33.330 people targeted by Trump. Why did they feel this 00:16:33.330 --> 00:16:36.179 was necessary? The source explains the concern 00:16:36.179 --> 00:16:38.419 is that with the administration attacking law 00:16:38.419 --> 00:16:42.440 firms, the big established firms might shy away 00:16:42.440 --> 00:16:45.000 from representing people Trump targets, especially 00:16:45.000 --> 00:16:47.500 in complex cases. This could leave those people 00:16:47.500 --> 00:16:50.279 with no recourse at all, potentially leading 00:16:50.279 --> 00:16:53.299 to, as the source puts it, no justice at all 00:16:53.299 --> 00:16:55.720 soon. Who are these volunteer lawyers? They all 00:16:55.720 --> 00:16:57.500 used to work at the Department of Justice. So 00:16:57.500 --> 00:17:00.080 they have deep experience, which the source thinks 00:17:00.080 --> 00:17:02.159 will give targets confidence in them. There was 00:17:02.159 --> 00:17:04.559 a quote from one volunteer, Melanie Proctor. 00:17:04.819 --> 00:17:07.400 Yes, she talked about her pride in the Doje oath 00:17:07.400 --> 00:17:11.259 out. The law was the law and her fear now that 00:17:11.259 --> 00:17:13.759 people will be targeted for doing the right thing, 00:17:14.019 --> 00:17:16.500 not for breaking the law, but for upholding it 00:17:16.500 --> 00:17:19.160 against the administration's wishes. And they're 00:17:19.160 --> 00:17:21.859 particularly concerned about one group of DOJ 00:17:21.859 --> 00:17:24.779 attorneys. Yes, those who prosecuted January 00:17:24.779 --> 00:17:27.920 6 cases. Trump has reportedly promised to fire 00:17:27.920 --> 00:17:30.619 them. They'll likely need lawyers to fight those 00:17:30.619 --> 00:17:32.240 dismissals. But there's a problem with where 00:17:32.240 --> 00:17:34.920 they'd fight those dismissals. A huge problem. 00:17:35.599 --> 00:17:38.019 The usual place, the Merit Systems Protections 00:17:38.019 --> 00:17:41.700 Board, MSPB, isn't functioning. The administration 00:17:41.700 --> 00:17:44.740 fired the chair, Kathy Harris, so it lacks a 00:17:44.740 --> 00:17:47.200 quorum enough members to actually make decisions. 00:17:47.740 --> 00:17:49.839 The Supreme Court apparently didn't reinstate 00:17:49.839 --> 00:17:53.220 her while her case goes on. This spells trouble 00:17:53.220 --> 00:17:55.859 for anyone fired, the source says. They can't 00:17:55.859 --> 00:17:57.799 appeal through the normal channel, and it could 00:17:57.799 --> 00:18:00.460 last for a while. Another former DOJ person, 00:18:00.700 --> 00:18:02.539 David Loftman, who worked on the Russia probe, 00:18:02.700 --> 00:18:06.339 was quoted too. Yes. Loftman called the DOJ a 00:18:06.339 --> 00:18:09.079 cornerstone of the rule of law. and said the 00:18:09.079 --> 00:18:12.319 administration took a sledgehammer to that. He 00:18:12.319 --> 00:18:15.400 feels a moral obligation to help colleagues whose 00:18:15.400 --> 00:18:17.759 careers are threatened for just doing their jobs 00:18:17.759 --> 00:18:20.259 without fear or favor. OK, let's look at a couple 00:18:20.259 --> 00:18:22.420 of specific legal battles mentioned in the sources. 00:18:22.839 --> 00:18:25.039 First, this election case Trump apparently won. 00:18:25.339 --> 00:18:27.460 Right. This relates to an executive order from 00:18:27.460 --> 00:18:30.220 early in his term. It basically says federal 00:18:30.220 --> 00:18:32.559 agencies must follow the attorney general's legal 00:18:32.559 --> 00:18:35.599 opinions and can't contradict the AG or the president. 00:18:35.710 --> 00:18:37.890 And Democrats were worried about how that might 00:18:37.890 --> 00:18:40.670 play out in elections. Their concern, according 00:18:40.670 --> 00:18:43.869 to the source, was that a future AG could issue 00:18:43.869 --> 00:18:47.069 an opinion favoring Republicans and the FEC, 00:18:47.569 --> 00:18:49.950 the Federal Election Commission, would be legally 00:18:49.950 --> 00:18:53.130 required to follow it. So they sued. And the 00:18:53.130 --> 00:18:57.450 result? On Tuesday, Judge Amir Ali, a Biden appointee, 00:18:57.730 --> 00:19:00.089 tossed the lawsuit out. On what grounds? The 00:19:00.089 --> 00:19:03.640 source says it was no standing to sue. Basically, 00:19:03.799 --> 00:19:05.359 the Democrats couldn't show they had already 00:19:05.359 --> 00:19:07.960 been harmed by the executive order. You generally 00:19:07.960 --> 00:19:11.019 need to show actual concrete damage to sue the 00:19:11.019 --> 00:19:13.059 government. And the judge wasn't convinced that 00:19:13.059 --> 00:19:14.759 it happened yet. Even though they argued they 00:19:14.759 --> 00:19:16.680 were already changing their behavior because 00:19:16.680 --> 00:19:19.579 of it? Apparently not convincing enough. The 00:19:19.579 --> 00:19:21.640 source indicates the judge wanted a concrete 00:19:21.640 --> 00:19:23.960 example of damage the order had already done, 00:19:24.240 --> 00:19:26.970 not just anticipated future harm. But he left 00:19:26.970 --> 00:19:29.430 the door open for them to come back. Yes, the 00:19:29.430 --> 00:19:31.410 source notes the judge said if circumstances 00:19:31.410 --> 00:19:33.549 change and they can show actual damages from 00:19:33.549 --> 00:19:35.730 the order, they're welcome to refile the case. 00:19:35.930 --> 00:19:39.170 OK, second case, the Birthright Citizenship case 00:19:39.170 --> 00:19:41.410 appeal. This came from an executive order on 00:19:41.410 --> 00:19:45.009 day one of Trump v 2 .0. Yes, that's the order 00:19:45.009 --> 00:19:47.630 trying to limit automatic citizenship only to 00:19:47.630 --> 00:19:49.990 babies born in the U .S. if at least one parent 00:19:49.990 --> 00:19:52.410 is a citizen. Trump lost the first round. He 00:19:52.410 --> 00:19:56.029 did. Judge John Koffner ruled the order. violated 00:19:56.029 --> 00:19:59.089 the Constitution. So yesterday was the appeal 00:19:59.089 --> 00:20:02.490 hearing in the Ninth Circuit. What were the administration's 00:20:02.490 --> 00:20:06.230 arguments per the source? The DOJ lawyer, Eric 00:20:06.230 --> 00:20:09.430 MacArthur, argued a few things. That a literal 00:20:09.430 --> 00:20:11.690 reading of the Constitution encourages birth 00:20:11.690 --> 00:20:14.569 tourism. That the 14th Amendment Citizenship 00:20:14.569 --> 00:20:17.250 Clause only applies to women domiciled here. 00:20:17.450 --> 00:20:19.710 And that the original debate around the amendment 00:20:19.710 --> 00:20:22.880 only intended to cover newly freed slaves. How 00:20:22.880 --> 00:20:25.220 did the judges react? The source describes two 00:20:25.220 --> 00:20:27.940 judges, both Clinton appointees, as pretty skeptical. 00:20:28.700 --> 00:20:30.740 Judge Ronald Gould apparently questioned the 00:20:30.740 --> 00:20:33.359 textual basis for the domiciled argument, saying, 00:20:33.460 --> 00:20:35.400 I don't see any language in there textually that 00:20:35.400 --> 00:20:38.400 says, why? And Judge Michael Hawkins reportedly 00:20:38.400 --> 00:20:40.539 said relying on congressional debate would get 00:20:40.539 --> 00:20:42.619 scorned from a textualist like Justice Scalia. 00:20:43.259 --> 00:20:45.140 The source thinks MacArthur probably won't get 00:20:45.140 --> 00:20:47.200 their votes. But there was a third judge. Judge 00:20:47.200 --> 00:20:50.400 Patrick DuMette, a Trump appointee. He was not 00:20:50.400 --> 00:20:53.180 as skeptical. according to the source. What was 00:20:53.180 --> 00:20:56.940 his focus? He apparently brought up the old 1898 00:20:56.940 --> 00:21:01.019 Supreme Court case, Wong Kim Ark. That case affirmed 00:21:01.019 --> 00:21:04.240 birthright citizenship, even if parents weren't 00:21:04.240 --> 00:21:06.779 citizens. Boumete supposedly suggested the legality 00:21:06.779 --> 00:21:09.259 of the parents presence was somehow key, even 00:21:09.259 --> 00:21:11.660 though the source adds that nothing in the decision 00:21:11.660 --> 00:21:15.059 suggested that. So the outlook at this appeal 00:21:15.059 --> 00:21:17.390 level. based on the source. Doesn't look great 00:21:17.390 --> 00:21:19.809 for Trump, with two skeptical judges on the three 00:21:19.809 --> 00:21:22.569 -judge panel. But the source adds, if Bumate 00:21:22.569 --> 00:21:25.230 does vote to uphold the order, his reasoning 00:21:25.230 --> 00:21:27.490 might be something the Supreme Court could latch 00:21:27.490 --> 00:21:30.190 onto if it ever gets there. OK, just a couple 00:21:30.190 --> 00:21:32.349 more quick political items from the sources to 00:21:32.349 --> 00:21:34.450 round things out. The Virginia special election. 00:21:34.690 --> 00:21:37.089 Yes, for the late Jerry Connolly seat. Governor 00:21:37.089 --> 00:21:39.589 Glenn Youngkin set the date for September 9th. 00:21:39.630 --> 00:21:41.730 And the source noted something about that date 00:21:41.730 --> 00:21:44.819 choice. Yeah, they observed Yonkin didn't play 00:21:44.819 --> 00:21:47.660 political games with the timing, unlike, say, 00:21:47.920 --> 00:21:50.940 Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who reportedly scheduled 00:21:50.940 --> 00:21:52.960 another special election way out in November. 00:21:53.980 --> 00:21:56.880 The speculation in the sources may be Yonkin, 00:21:57.059 --> 00:22:00.299 eyeing a 2028 paradidential run, wants to keep 00:22:00.299 --> 00:22:03.160 a moderate lane open, avoid looking very partisan, 00:22:03.460 --> 00:22:06.079 especially if Trump's numbers aren't great. Interesting. 00:22:06.259 --> 00:22:09.720 OK, finally, international news. The Dutch government 00:22:09.720 --> 00:22:11.940 collapsed. Yeah, kind of surprising news this 00:22:11.940 --> 00:22:14.200 week. The source described it as a coalition 00:22:14.200 --> 00:22:18.279 of four very different parties that just couldn't 00:22:18.279 --> 00:22:20.920 hold it together despite months of trying. And 00:22:20.920 --> 00:22:24.240 Geert Wilder's party, PVV, is key here. His party 00:22:24.240 --> 00:22:27.059 won the most seats last time. But forming a government 00:22:27.059 --> 00:22:28.880 was tough because others didn't want to work 00:22:28.880 --> 00:22:31.619 with him. They finally got a technocrat PM, Dick 00:22:31.619 --> 00:22:34.559 Scoof. But the source says Wilder's still runs 00:22:34.559 --> 00:22:36.640 the show from Parliament. His main issue being 00:22:36.640 --> 00:22:39.059 immigration. Absolutely. Stopping immigration 00:22:39.059 --> 00:22:41.339 by any means is how the source puts it. They 00:22:41.339 --> 00:22:42.960 mention his support for things like banning the 00:22:42.960 --> 00:22:45.400 Quran, closing mosques. The source notes, he 00:22:45.400 --> 00:22:47.480 doesn't like Muslims much. We've heard that before 00:22:47.480 --> 00:22:50.240 somewhere. What caused the final break, according 00:22:50.240 --> 00:22:53.259 to the source? Wilders apparently got fed up 00:22:53.259 --> 00:22:55.720 with the other party stalling about banning asylum 00:22:55.720 --> 00:22:58.539 seekers. He gave them a list of demands, told 00:22:58.539 --> 00:23:01.720 them to sign as is. They refused. He pulled out 00:23:01.720 --> 00:23:03.539 and boom, new elections, probably in October. 00:23:03.579 --> 00:23:06.140 What are the underlying tensions the source points 00:23:06.140 --> 00:23:09.750 to? Costs? Yeah. costs for housing, health care, 00:23:09.809 --> 00:23:12.490 education for immigrants. Plus, this clashes 00:23:12.490 --> 00:23:15.390 with the EU pushing members to spend way more 00:23:15.390 --> 00:23:18.089 on defense. That means social spending might 00:23:18.089 --> 00:23:20.869 need cuts and Wilders doesn't want that money 00:23:20.869 --> 00:23:23.009 going to foreigners. And this isn't just a Dutch 00:23:23.009 --> 00:23:26.289 thing. No. The source places it in a wider European 00:23:26.289 --> 00:23:29.009 context. Says it's hard to find a country where 00:23:29.009 --> 00:23:31.309 the people want more immigrants. Pointing to 00:23:31.309 --> 00:23:33.730 the AFD party getting 21 percent in Germany is 00:23:33.730 --> 00:23:35.769 another example. And the timing is a bit awkward. 00:23:35.910 --> 00:23:38.490 Just slightly embarrassing. Yeah. NATO leaders 00:23:38.490 --> 00:23:40.450 are meeting in The Hague soon. And the head of 00:23:40.450 --> 00:23:43.609 NATO now is Mark Rote, the former Dutch PM whose 00:23:43.609 --> 00:23:46.069 government just fell. And there was something 00:23:46.069 --> 00:23:48.430 about the limits on the current caretaker government. 00:23:48.750 --> 00:23:50.490 Right. They're technically only supposed to carry 00:23:50.490 --> 00:23:53.730 out existing policy. The source finds that impractical. 00:23:54.109 --> 00:23:56.349 Like, what if Ukraine urgently needs help? Can 00:23:56.349 --> 00:23:58.430 they really just muddle along? And we have to 00:23:58.430 --> 00:24:00.549 mention that quirky anecdote from the source 00:24:00.549 --> 00:24:02.950 about their own consulting experience in Dutch 00:24:02.950 --> 00:24:05.450 elections. Oh, yeah. The story about lawyers 00:24:05.450 --> 00:24:07.799 not getting open source software. and counting 00:24:07.799 --> 00:24:10.339 votes on those enormous paper ballots by hand, 00:24:10.700 --> 00:24:12.660 a little window into how things actually work 00:24:12.660 --> 00:24:15.680 sometimes. Wow. OK, we have covered a lot of 00:24:15.680 --> 00:24:17.640 ground today, all pulled from those sources you 00:24:17.640 --> 00:24:19.980 shared. We went from travel bans and trade spats 00:24:19.980 --> 00:24:23.980 to serious questions about university futures, 00:24:24.440 --> 00:24:27.299 the justice system, even the reliability of basic 00:24:27.299 --> 00:24:29.799 government data. Yeah. And when you put it all 00:24:29.799 --> 00:24:31.900 together like this, you really see patterns emerging, 00:24:32.079 --> 00:24:35.400 don't you? Significant shifts, major challenges 00:24:35.400 --> 00:24:38.690 across different sectors. often driven by pretty 00:24:38.690 --> 00:24:41.450 specific political goals leading to these really 00:24:41.450 --> 00:24:45.109 complex legal and economic ripple effects. Exactly. 00:24:45.210 --> 00:24:48.150 So you've just navigated all that with us. You 00:24:48.150 --> 00:24:50.470 can see how an action here like tariffs might 00:24:50.470 --> 00:24:52.789 connect over there to economic reports or how 00:24:52.789 --> 00:24:55.009 a legal fight here shapes how policies are enforced 00:24:55.009 --> 00:24:57.690 over there or who can even access legal help. 00:24:57.750 --> 00:24:59.750 Right and maybe the final thought to leave you 00:24:59.750 --> 00:25:03.390 with connecting all this is when these core institutions 00:25:03.880 --> 00:25:06.720 We rely on universities for knowledge, agencies 00:25:06.720 --> 00:25:09.519 for data, the courts for justice. When they face 00:25:09.519 --> 00:25:11.420 the kind of pressure or disruption described 00:25:11.420 --> 00:25:13.920 in these sources, how does that change things? 00:25:14.079 --> 00:25:16.319 How does it change how we understand what's happening? 00:25:16.759 --> 00:25:19.799 How reliable are the usual sources? Can you still 00:25:19.799 --> 00:25:22.619 seek redress through normal channels? It really 00:25:22.619 --> 00:25:25.140 raises a fundamental question. How do you navigate 00:25:25.140 --> 00:25:27.380 a landscape where the very systems designed to 00:25:27.380 --> 00:25:29.920 inform us and uphold norms seem to be under so 00:25:29.920 --> 00:25:32.319 much strain? Something to chew on until our next 00:25:32.319 --> 00:25:32.819 deep dive.