WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.240 Welcome to the Deep Dive. This is where we take 00:00:02.240 --> 00:00:04.160 that stack of sources you've shared with us, 00:00:04.379 --> 00:00:06.860 articles, notes, research. And we really dig 00:00:06.860 --> 00:00:10.460 in. We're pulling out the key insights, the important 00:00:10.460 --> 00:00:13.000 stuff so you can get up to speed quickly but 00:00:13.000 --> 00:00:15.480 thoroughly. Think of us as your guides through 00:00:15.480 --> 00:00:17.420 all this information you've gathered. We'll highlight 00:00:17.420 --> 00:00:19.699 the main points, maybe some surprising connections 00:00:19.699 --> 00:00:22.460 too. Right, helping connect the dots across all 00:00:22.460 --> 00:00:24.940 the material. So our mission for this Deep Dive 00:00:24.940 --> 00:00:27.500 is to unpack what's in your sources today. And 00:00:27.500 --> 00:00:29.460 it's quite a mix. It really is. We've got some 00:00:29.460 --> 00:00:34.659 intense reporting on immigration and some specific 00:00:34.659 --> 00:00:37.380 political language being used. Then there's a 00:00:37.380 --> 00:00:40.000 look at where a certain governor stands politically 00:00:40.000 --> 00:00:42.679 right now. And that big court ruling on tariffs, 00:00:42.679 --> 00:00:45.399 right? Plus the whole fiscal outlook connected 00:00:45.399 --> 00:00:48.020 to that. Exactly. And we finished with something 00:00:48.020 --> 00:00:50.200 totally different, a really amazing historical 00:00:50.200 --> 00:00:54.100 connection like, wow, directly to an early 19th 00:00:54.100 --> 00:00:56.340 century president. It's quite the spread. It 00:00:56.340 --> 00:00:58.520 shows how things link up when you start looking 00:00:58.520 --> 00:01:00.840 closely. So where should we start? Maybe with 00:01:00.840 --> 00:01:03.579 immigration. Yeah, let's do that. OK. So unpacking 00:01:03.579 --> 00:01:05.719 this first section, your material leads with 00:01:05.719 --> 00:01:10.359 a specific, quite telling story. It's about an 00:01:10.359 --> 00:01:13.680 undocumented immigrant, Ramon Morales Reyes. 00:01:13.859 --> 00:01:15.879 Right. And the core of it is this suspicious 00:01:15.879 --> 00:01:19.340 letter. It was sent to a DHS official. supposedly 00:01:19.340 --> 00:01:22.280 from Reyes, making threats. But the sources you 00:01:22.280 --> 00:01:24.159 gave us flagged this almost immediately. They 00:01:24.159 --> 00:01:26.239 say it looked really suspect. Definitely. They 00:01:26.239 --> 00:01:28.840 list several red flags. Yeah. Like the handwriting 00:01:28.840 --> 00:01:31.599 felt off. Yeah. Mimicked maybe like a child's 00:01:31.599 --> 00:01:33.760 writing. Yeah. And then this weird mix, the source 00:01:33.760 --> 00:01:36.120 notes, it had correct gun jargon, but then basic 00:01:36.120 --> 00:01:38.980 grammar mistakes, like using is when it should 00:01:38.980 --> 00:01:41.079 have been his, just didn't add up. And maybe 00:01:41.079 --> 00:01:43.659 the biggest thing the source points out, a would 00:01:43.659 --> 00:01:45.980 -be attacker, including their home address and 00:01:45.980 --> 00:01:49.790 warning the government. It just felt Well, constructed 00:01:49.790 --> 00:01:51.890 like someone wanted it to look authentic, but 00:01:51.890 --> 00:01:54.129 failed. OK, and here's where, according to your 00:01:54.129 --> 00:01:57.030 sources, it gets really interesting and frankly, 00:01:57.489 --> 00:01:59.689 a bit disturbing based on their reporting, despite 00:01:59.689 --> 00:02:01.590 all these red flags, all these inconsistency. 00:02:01.689 --> 00:02:04.170 Governor Noem apparently ran with it. That's 00:02:04.170 --> 00:02:06.870 the phrase used in one source. Yeah, didn't just 00:02:06.870 --> 00:02:09.650 amplify it. But according to that source, linked 00:02:09.650 --> 00:02:12.389 it bizarrely to a James Comey seashell picture. 00:02:13.509 --> 00:02:16.449 Which the source just calls nuts. So. What did 00:02:16.449 --> 00:02:19.330 the actual investigation find? Your sources are 00:02:19.330 --> 00:02:22.689 clear here. The FBI confirmed Reyes did not write 00:02:22.689 --> 00:02:25.469 that letter. They believe someone else wrote 00:02:25.469 --> 00:02:27.770 it. Someone who's facing trial. And Reyes is 00:02:27.770 --> 00:02:30.050 a prosecution witness in that trial. Exactly. 00:02:30.310 --> 00:02:32.490 And the implication the source draws is pretty 00:02:32.490 --> 00:02:34.990 stark. If Reyes gets deported because of this 00:02:34.990 --> 00:02:38.030 fake letter, well, he can't testify. The sources 00:02:38.030 --> 00:02:40.550 you shared express a very, very strong reaction 00:02:40.550 --> 00:02:43.270 to how Governor Noem handled this. One states 00:02:43.270 --> 00:02:46.349 she either knew it was a 100 % lie or just chose 00:02:46.349 --> 00:02:49.050 to ignore the facts. And the language used in 00:02:49.050 --> 00:02:51.409 one source is particularly blunt. It calls her 00:02:51.409 --> 00:02:54.009 behavior vile. Right. And argues that creating 00:02:54.009 --> 00:02:57.610 these kinds of bugaboos out of lies and misrepresentations 00:02:57.610 --> 00:02:59.830 is, and this is a direct quote from the source, 00:03:00.250 --> 00:03:02.830 absolutely fascism 101. It's vital we stress 00:03:02.830 --> 00:03:05.169 that this strong characterization comes directly 00:03:05.169 --> 00:03:07.849 from the source material you provided us. Absolutely. 00:03:08.629 --> 00:03:10.449 Okay, shifting to another immigration point from 00:03:10.449 --> 00:03:12.969 your sources. This involves Marco Rubio and Stephen 00:03:12.969 --> 00:03:16.469 Miller. And this idea they're reportedly working 00:03:16.469 --> 00:03:20.150 on creating a new Department of Remigration. 00:03:20.530 --> 00:03:23.909 Remigration. That word itself. It probably makes 00:03:23.909 --> 00:03:26.569 you pause it does and your sources immediately 00:03:26.569 --> 00:03:29.449 define it actually pulling the definition straight 00:03:29.449 --> 00:03:32.449 from The first sentence of the Wikipedia article 00:03:32.449 --> 00:03:34.069 on the term and that definition is presented 00:03:34.069 --> 00:03:35.810 right there in your sources is quite chilling 00:03:35.810 --> 00:03:38.889 it reads Remigration is a far -right European 00:03:38.889 --> 00:03:41.889 concept of ethnic cleansing via the mass deportation 00:03:41.889 --> 00:03:44.710 or promoted voluntary return of non -white immigrants 00:03:44.710 --> 00:03:46.990 and their descendants Usually including those 00:03:46.990 --> 00:03:49.870 born in Europe to their place of racial ancestry 00:03:49.870 --> 00:03:52.800 often with no regard for their citizenship legal 00:03:52.800 --> 00:03:55.379 status. Wow and the sources don't hold back on 00:03:55.379 --> 00:03:57.319 where they say this idea originated for Rubio 00:03:57.319 --> 00:04:00.520 and Miller. They state it came from literal fascists 00:04:00.520 --> 00:04:03.300 in Germany and Austria. Again that's the sources 00:04:03.300 --> 00:04:05.639 specific phrasing. The sources also make a point 00:04:05.639 --> 00:04:07.719 to mention the historical targets of these kinds 00:04:07.719 --> 00:04:10.159 of remigration movements. Specifically Latinos 00:04:10.159 --> 00:04:12.960 and Jews and they highlight that Jews were actually 00:04:12.960 --> 00:04:15.219 the first target of these types of movements 00:04:15.219 --> 00:04:18.180 historically. So putting these two things together. 00:04:18.569 --> 00:04:21.509 the Reyes letter situation and this Department 00:04:21.509 --> 00:04:24.410 of Remigration proposal. Your sources clearly 00:04:24.410 --> 00:04:27.149 convey a deeply critical view. Very concerned 00:04:27.149 --> 00:04:29.470 about the rhetoric in these policy ideas. Yeah, 00:04:29.470 --> 00:04:32.310 and one source ends the section with an incredibly 00:04:32.310 --> 00:04:34.910 blunt assessment of the people involved, just 00:04:34.910 --> 00:04:37.750 stating, these are such terrible, terrible people. 00:04:37.910 --> 00:04:40.370 And again, we have to emphasize that's a direct 00:04:40.370 --> 00:04:42.769 sentiment expressed in the source material you 00:04:42.769 --> 00:04:44.970 shared. Definitely captures the intensity of 00:04:44.970 --> 00:04:47.290 the views in your sources on these immigration 00:04:47.290 --> 00:04:50.509 topics. Okay, shall we pivot? Let's look at Ron 00:04:50.509 --> 00:04:53.750 DeSantis. Your sources paint a picture of his 00:04:53.750 --> 00:04:55.670 current political standing. It wasn't always 00:04:55.670 --> 00:04:58.250 like this, was it? No, definitely not. The sources 00:04:58.250 --> 00:05:00.589 remind us not that long ago he was seen as a 00:05:00.589 --> 00:05:03.170 rising star, maybe even the rising star. The 00:05:03.170 --> 00:05:05.680 heir presumptive to the Maggie throne. as one 00:05:05.680 --> 00:05:07.680 source puts it. Right, but now the description 00:05:07.680 --> 00:05:09.920 is more like a shooting star, you know, burned 00:05:09.920 --> 00:05:13.079 bright, but now... Fading away. And your sources 00:05:13.079 --> 00:05:15.720 detail a whole list of problems they say are 00:05:15.720 --> 00:05:17.899 contributing to this, suggesting his influence 00:05:17.899 --> 00:05:20.879 is waning. First one mentioned is a charity scandal. 00:05:21.180 --> 00:05:23.819 Yes. This involves his wife, Casey DeSantis, 00:05:23.959 --> 00:05:26.899 and a charity she started. The sources mention 00:05:26.899 --> 00:05:30.819 allegations of over $10 million in alleged grift. 00:05:31.639 --> 00:05:35.600 And they say... The stench from this has attached 00:05:35.600 --> 00:05:38.519 to the governor himself. Yes, particularly the 00:05:38.519 --> 00:05:40.860 source notes because the money allegedly went 00:05:40.860 --> 00:05:44.519 mostly to his friends and allies, not hers. Okay, 00:05:44.720 --> 00:05:46.699 what else? The relationship with the state legislature 00:05:46.699 --> 00:05:49.240 seems to be a factor too. Big time. Your sources 00:05:49.240 --> 00:05:51.240 describe how legislators were once apparently 00:05:51.240 --> 00:05:54.259 terrified of him, hesitant to cross him. But 00:05:54.259 --> 00:05:56.730 that shifted. Seems so. The sources argue that 00:05:56.730 --> 00:05:59.029 Florida Republicans see DeSantis as being done 00:05:59.029 --> 00:06:01.790 in about a year, whereas Trump, who they note 00:06:01.790 --> 00:06:04.990 dislikes DeSantis, might be around longer politically. 00:06:05.110 --> 00:06:07.110 So the calculation changes for them. Exactly. 00:06:07.250 --> 00:06:09.709 So now the sources say legislators are rebelling 00:06:09.709 --> 00:06:11.769 against the governor on a frequent basis, not 00:06:11.769 --> 00:06:13.829 just behind the scenes, but in official actions 00:06:13.829 --> 00:06:15.970 and even public comments. Is there an example? 00:06:16.170 --> 00:06:19.110 A very striking one, yeah. The Speaker of the 00:06:19.110 --> 00:06:22.939 Florida House, Daniel Perez, A Republican apparently 00:06:22.939 --> 00:06:26.180 publicly accused DeSantis in an interview of 00:06:26.180 --> 00:06:28.720 telling lies and stories that never happened. 00:06:28.779 --> 00:06:32.199 Wow. And throwing temper tantrums. That's pretty 00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:34.300 direct criticism from party leadership. Yeah, 00:06:34.319 --> 00:06:36.399 that is notable. What about the state bureaucracy? 00:06:37.019 --> 00:06:39.279 Similar trend, according to your sources, they 00:06:39.279 --> 00:06:41.519 seem less scared, too. The key example given 00:06:41.519 --> 00:06:43.680 is the University of Florida presidential search 00:06:43.680 --> 00:06:46.740 after Ben Sasse left. Ah, right. And they ended 00:06:46.740 --> 00:06:49.300 up choosing Santa Ono, who led the University 00:06:49.300 --> 00:06:52.500 of Michigan. and oversaw their DEI programs, 00:06:52.660 --> 00:06:55.180 diversity, equity, and inclusion. Which is something 00:06:55.180 --> 00:06:57.720 DeSantis has actively campaigned against. Exactly. 00:06:58.279 --> 00:07:00.939 So according to the sources, DEI critics see 00:07:00.939 --> 00:07:03.139 this appointment as a deliberate poke in the 00:07:03.139 --> 00:07:06.500 governor's eye. A betrayal of his stance, a major 00:07:06.500 --> 00:07:09.040 threat to his education reforms, is how the source 00:07:09.040 --> 00:07:12.180 frames those criticisms. Your sources even quote 00:07:12.180 --> 00:07:15.279 someone, Paul De Quinoa, calling Ono a radical 00:07:15.279 --> 00:07:17.939 left shibboleth and the whole appointment an 00:07:17.939 --> 00:07:20.920 un -American charade. Strong words. And wasn't 00:07:20.920 --> 00:07:23.519 there something about Ono being the only finalist? 00:07:23.980 --> 00:07:26.199 Yeah, the source highlights that detail. Ono 00:07:26.199 --> 00:07:29.139 was the only finalist presented. And DeSantis 00:07:29.139 --> 00:07:31.720 apparently opposed him. But was just ignored. 00:07:32.259 --> 00:07:35.120 That really suggests a loss of sway. It does. 00:07:35.459 --> 00:07:38.220 And as his influence seems to slip, your sources 00:07:38.220 --> 00:07:40.740 also describe a pattern. the governor holding 00:07:40.740 --> 00:07:44.160 press conferences. To whine and moan, as one 00:07:44.160 --> 00:07:45.839 source puts it. Yeah, about things like woke 00:07:45.839 --> 00:07:49.459 judges, drag shows, the budget, immigration, 00:07:50.360 --> 00:07:52.879 topics he hits often. But the source claims most 00:07:52.879 --> 00:07:54.620 people find this approach off -putting. And then 00:07:54.620 --> 00:07:56.959 there was that WWE event incident. Oh yeah, in 00:07:56.959 --> 00:07:59.240 Tampa. You'd think maybe a friendly crowd for 00:07:59.240 --> 00:08:02.069 him. Pro wrestling in Florida? Apparently not. 00:08:02.310 --> 00:08:03.949 The sources say when he was shown on the big 00:08:03.949 --> 00:08:06.529 screen, the Jumbotron. The crowd just erupted, 00:08:06.730 --> 00:08:09.029 chanting, you suck, you suck, you suck, over 00:08:09.029 --> 00:08:12.350 and over. That's rough, especially in that kind 00:08:12.350 --> 00:08:14.649 of venue. So adding all this up, the scandal, 00:08:14.850 --> 00:08:17.129 the legislature pushing back, the bureaucracy 00:08:17.129 --> 00:08:19.829 ignoring him, the public reception. The sources 00:08:19.829 --> 00:08:24.170 basically conclude he's, well, cooked. That's 00:08:24.170 --> 00:08:26.990 the word used. Yeah. And they list the reasons. 00:08:28.069 --> 00:08:30.589 grossly overplayed his hand with all the crazy 00:08:30.589 --> 00:08:33.169 authoritarian stuff, the ethical questions around 00:08:33.169 --> 00:08:35.610 the charity having, quote, the charisma of a 00:08:35.610 --> 00:08:38.389 boiled potato. Alienating the Maggie base, becoming 00:08:38.389 --> 00:08:41.389 the butt of many a joke. Yeah. It's quite a list 00:08:41.389 --> 00:08:43.370 of contributing factors, according to these sources. 00:08:43.809 --> 00:08:46.309 Definitely a sharp contrast to that rising star 00:08:46.309 --> 00:08:49.129 image from just a little while ago. OK, let's 00:08:49.129 --> 00:08:52.330 shift again. Economy time, specifically this 00:08:52.330 --> 00:08:55.590 court ruling on tariffs. Right, a pretty significant 00:08:55.590 --> 00:08:57.909 development here. The U .S. Court of International 00:08:57.909 --> 00:09:01.029 Trade, the USCIT. They struck down a lot of the 00:09:01.029 --> 00:09:03.450 tariffs imposed by the previous administration, 00:09:03.870 --> 00:09:06.929 the ones using the IEPA, the International Emergency 00:09:06.929 --> 00:09:09.669 Economic Powers Act. But your sources note that 00:09:09.669 --> 00:09:11.549 ruling isn't currently in effect, right? There's 00:09:11.549 --> 00:09:14.289 been a stay. Exactly. The Court of Appeals for 00:09:14.289 --> 00:09:16.309 the Federal Circuit put a temporary pause on 00:09:16.309 --> 00:09:18.409 it. And your sources stress this is just a short 00:09:18.409 --> 00:09:21.759 -term thing until June 9th. Right. Just gives 00:09:21.759 --> 00:09:23.519 everyone time to file briefs. Let's the court 00:09:23.519 --> 00:09:26.159 consider things. The sources say it's a very 00:09:26.159 --> 00:09:28.440 common short -term outcome, and importantly, 00:09:28.860 --> 00:09:30.500 doesn't really tell us anything about the merits 00:09:30.500 --> 00:09:33.159 of the administration's case yet. Okay, but the 00:09:33.159 --> 00:09:36.200 potential impact, if that USCIT ruling eventually 00:09:36.200 --> 00:09:39.259 does stand, that's where the numbers get big. 00:09:39.620 --> 00:09:42.500 Very big. Your sources cite estimates. Bloomberg 00:09:42.500 --> 00:09:45.279 reporting economists see a potential $2 trillion 00:09:45.279 --> 00:09:48.259 fiscal hole over the next decade. Two trillion? 00:09:48.399 --> 00:09:50.940 Wow. And Ernie Tedeschi at Yale's Budget Lab 00:09:50.940 --> 00:09:53.820 had a similar figure, right? About $2 trillion 00:09:53.820 --> 00:09:56.299 lower revenue over 10 years compared to what 00:09:56.299 --> 00:09:58.580 was expected if the tariffs remained. Yeah, comparing 00:09:58.580 --> 00:10:02.200 roughly $700 billion collected versus $2 .7 trillion 00:10:02.200 --> 00:10:05.139 expected. And Tedeschi is quoted saying the fiscal 00:10:05.139 --> 00:10:07.220 outlook just got a lot worse because of this 00:10:07.220 --> 00:10:09.659 ruling. Bloomberg Economics also estimated the 00:10:09.659 --> 00:10:11.799 average U .S. tariff rate could plummet from 00:10:11.799 --> 00:10:14.519 almost 27 percent down to below 6 percent if 00:10:14.519 --> 00:10:17.279 the ruling holds. And Wolf Research, they estimated 00:10:17.279 --> 00:10:19.740 an annual hit. Yeah, Stephanie Roth there estimated 00:10:19.740 --> 00:10:23.899 a 180 billion dollar annual revenue hit. So losing 00:10:23.899 --> 00:10:25.740 that revenue stream could be a real problem, 00:10:26.000 --> 00:10:28.259 especially as your sources note, for Republicans 00:10:28.259 --> 00:10:31.259 relying on it to help pay for that big tax cut 00:10:31.259 --> 00:10:33.240 package working its way through Congress. Right. 00:10:33.279 --> 00:10:36.500 Like four trillion dollars worth. Exactly. And 00:10:36.500 --> 00:10:39.240 your sources also dig into some of the legal 00:10:39.240 --> 00:10:41.480 arguments suggesting the administration might 00:10:41.480 --> 00:10:43.639 face an uphill battle defending these tariffs 00:10:43.639 --> 00:10:46.549 in court. They mention a heavy reliance on an 00:10:46.549 --> 00:10:50.429 old case, Yoshida International from 1971. Right, 00:10:50.509 --> 00:10:52.809 from the Nixon era, allowing limited tariffs 00:10:52.809 --> 00:10:56.049 then. But the source argues the current administration's 00:10:56.049 --> 00:10:58.350 lawyers are having to pick and choose bits from 00:10:58.350 --> 00:11:01.289 that ruling. How so? Well, for example, Trump's 00:11:01.289 --> 00:11:03.190 team argues tariff rates aren't something courts 00:11:03.190 --> 00:11:06.210 can even rule on not justiciable. But the Yoshida 00:11:06.210 --> 00:11:08.629 case itself apparently said rates most certainly 00:11:08.629 --> 00:11:12.370 are justiciable. So they're using the case, but 00:11:12.370 --> 00:11:14.409 ignoring parts that don't help them. That's what 00:11:14.409 --> 00:11:16.549 the source suggests, saying this picking and 00:11:16.549 --> 00:11:18.450 choosing does not make for a great foundation, 00:11:18.889 --> 00:11:21.289 and hence they might lack better precedent. And 00:11:21.289 --> 00:11:23.070 there's another point about the broader legal 00:11:23.070 --> 00:11:26.029 trend. Yeah, particularly in conservative legal 00:11:26.029 --> 00:11:28.950 circles over the last decade or so, the argument 00:11:28.950 --> 00:11:31.509 that Congress has delegated too much power to 00:11:31.509 --> 00:11:34.309 the executive branch powers it shouldn't give 00:11:34.309 --> 00:11:37.049 away. So the source finds it unlikely the course 00:11:37.049 --> 00:11:39.009 would suddenly reverse that trend just for this 00:11:39.009 --> 00:11:42.080 tariff case. to grant sweeping executive power 00:11:42.080 --> 00:11:44.840 under IEKA? That seems to be the sources read 00:11:44.840 --> 00:11:47.879 on the legal landscape, yes. OK, so if the ruling 00:11:47.879 --> 00:11:51.019 stands, which specific tariffs go away, according 00:11:51.019 --> 00:11:53.539 to the sources? They list them out. The 10 % 00:11:53.539 --> 00:11:56.279 universal baseline tariffs, that extra 10 % China 00:11:56.279 --> 00:11:59.120 reciprocal one, the de minimis tariffs on Chinese 00:11:59.120 --> 00:12:02.120 goods under $800. And those extra duties on China, 00:12:02.299 --> 00:12:04.860 Canada, Mexico related to fentanyl? Those two. 00:12:05.000 --> 00:12:08.649 Those two, yeah. 20 % China, 25 % Canada, Mexico, 00:12:08.769 --> 00:12:11.269 they'd all go the way of the dodo, as the source 00:12:11.269 --> 00:12:13.789 puts it. But some tariffs would remain. Correct. 00:12:14.090 --> 00:12:15.870 The ones imposed under different authorities, 00:12:16.090 --> 00:12:18.570 like the 25 % on most auto imports and parts, 00:12:18.950 --> 00:12:21.230 and the 25 % on steel and aluminum and related 00:12:21.230 --> 00:12:23.750 articles, those would still stand. Now, the White 00:12:23.750 --> 00:12:25.350 House and the previous administration, they pushed 00:12:25.350 --> 00:12:27.309 back, right? Your sources include their arguments. 00:12:27.769 --> 00:12:30.450 Yes. Stephen Mirren, chair of the White House 00:12:30.450 --> 00:12:33.149 Council of Economic Advisers, is quoted saying 00:12:33.149 --> 00:12:36.080 the tariffs would bring in hundreds of billions 00:12:36.080 --> 00:12:38.980 of dollars a year helping the fiscal situation. 00:12:39.460 --> 00:12:41.860 And Caroline Leavitt, the press secretary. Quoted 00:12:41.860 --> 00:12:44.799 calling claims that the associated tax bill increases 00:12:44.799 --> 00:12:48.539 the deficit blatantly wrong. She blames scorekeepers 00:12:48.539 --> 00:12:51.919 like the CBO for using shoddy assumptions and 00:12:51.919 --> 00:12:55.080 being historically terrible at forecasting. The 00:12:55.080 --> 00:12:56.960 sources also mentioned there might be other ways 00:12:56.960 --> 00:13:00.960 to impose tariffs. Section 232 authority. Right. 00:13:01.240 --> 00:13:03.139 Stephanie Roth mentioned that. It's already been 00:13:03.139 --> 00:13:05.720 used for things like smartphones, jet engines, 00:13:06.000 --> 00:13:08.600 and apparently it's being considered for pharmaceuticals, 00:13:08.740 --> 00:13:11.159 semiconductors, maybe even lumber. And the legislative 00:13:11.159 --> 00:13:13.820 side. The Senate's debating related bills through 00:13:13.820 --> 00:13:16.379 July. Yeah, debate's expected. Adding tariffs 00:13:16.379 --> 00:13:18.899 via legislation is possible. But Alex Durante 00:13:18.899 --> 00:13:21.240 from the Tax Foundation is quoted saying he doesn't 00:13:21.240 --> 00:13:23.519 really see the appetite in Congress for something 00:13:23.519 --> 00:13:26.240 as broad as what the president has done via executive 00:13:26.240 --> 00:13:29.039 action. And Trump himself commented, critical 00:13:29.039 --> 00:13:31.600 of Congress deciding caress. Yep, on truth social, 00:13:31.700 --> 00:13:33.659 according to the source. OK, now there's another 00:13:33.659 --> 00:13:35.679 source you provided, the checking the math one. 00:13:36.279 --> 00:13:38.960 This really focuses on the fiscal impact of that 00:13:38.960 --> 00:13:41.679 House reconciliation bill, the one that tariff 00:13:41.679 --> 00:13:43.440 revenue was supposed to help pay for. Right. 00:13:43.679 --> 00:13:46.039 And this source highlights multiple independent 00:13:46.039 --> 00:13:48.580 analyses that contradict the White House and 00:13:48.580 --> 00:13:51.879 GOP claims about the bill's fiscal impact. Who 00:13:51.879 --> 00:13:54.000 do the analyses? Committee for a Responsible 00:13:54.000 --> 00:13:58.019 Federal Budget, CRFB, the Urban Brookings Tax 00:13:58.019 --> 00:14:01.320 Policy Center, Penn Wharton Budget Model, PWBM, 00:14:02.019 --> 00:14:04.879 Tax Foundation, several respected independent 00:14:04.879 --> 00:14:07.019 groups. And what was their general conclusion? 00:14:07.340 --> 00:14:10.399 Pretty much unanimous. The bill would add trillions 00:14:10.399 --> 00:14:12.940 to the deficit over 10 years, not reduce it. 00:14:13.039 --> 00:14:15.440 Not reduce it at all. Not at all. Mark Goldwain 00:14:15.440 --> 00:14:18.580 from CRFB is quoted saying, it's certainly not 00:14:18.580 --> 00:14:20.879 the largest deficit reduction in nearly 30 years. 00:14:21.039 --> 00:14:23.419 It's not deficit reduction at all. He estimated 00:14:23.419 --> 00:14:26.799 $3 .1 trillion added to the debt, including interest. 00:14:27.259 --> 00:14:29.659 And he also pushed back on the spending cut claims. 00:14:29.960 --> 00:14:32.139 Yeah, he said it's not the largest spending cut 00:14:32.139 --> 00:14:34.860 in 30 years either, pointing to the Fiscal Responsibility 00:14:34.860 --> 00:14:38.480 Act from 2023 as being larger by his count. He 00:14:38.480 --> 00:14:42.039 also noted the bill's stated cuts, like $1 .5 00:14:42.039 --> 00:14:45.100 trillion, don't factor in new spending elsewhere 00:14:45.100 --> 00:14:47.159 in the bill. Like for defense and homeland security? 00:14:47.440 --> 00:14:53.019 Exactly. $144 billion more for defense, $67 billion 00:14:53.019 --> 00:14:55.759 for homeland security and immigration enforcement, 00:14:56.019 --> 00:14:58.019 according to his analysis cited in the source. 00:14:58.340 --> 00:15:00.440 What about the other groups? Urban Brookings. 00:15:00.700 --> 00:15:03.019 Howard Gleckman there agreed, telling the source 00:15:03.019 --> 00:15:05.539 the bill would add trillions of dollars to the 00:15:05.539 --> 00:15:08.039 deficit by any reasonable estimate. He called 00:15:08.039 --> 00:15:10.019 it one of the biggest peacetime increases in 00:15:10.019 --> 00:15:12.820 the debt in history, mainly due to the tax cuts. 00:15:12.980 --> 00:15:16.100 Penn Wharton budget model. BWBM. They estimated 00:15:16.100 --> 00:15:18.860 a $2 .8 trillion increase in primary deficits, 00:15:19.220 --> 00:15:22.179 rising to $3 .2 trillion with dynamic scoring. 00:15:22.440 --> 00:15:25.139 Kent Smetters from PWBM is quoted confirming 00:15:25.139 --> 00:15:27.480 the deficit reduction claim is just wrong. And 00:15:27.480 --> 00:15:29.820 dynamic scoring didn't help. Sometimes proponents 00:15:29.820 --> 00:15:32.419 claim economic growth will offset costs. Not 00:15:32.419 --> 00:15:34.919 in this case, according to PWBM's model cited 00:15:34.919 --> 00:15:38.019 by the source. Smetters noted their dynamic scoring 00:15:38.019 --> 00:15:40.500 actually increased the estimated 10 year cost. 00:15:41.059 --> 00:15:43.340 Any savings they found don't even start until 00:15:43.340 --> 00:15:46.559 after 2033. That's interesting. Did PWBM say 00:15:46.559 --> 00:15:48.860 anything about who wins or loses? Yeah, their 00:15:48.860 --> 00:15:51.779 dynamic analysis found lower income and some 00:15:51.779 --> 00:15:53.899 middle -class households could actually be worse 00:15:53.899 --> 00:15:56.399 off over their lifetimes, mainly due to cuts 00:15:56.399 --> 00:15:58.639 in safety net programs and the impact of higher 00:15:58.639 --> 00:16:00.860 federal debt, even with some positive economic 00:16:00.860 --> 00:16:03.309 effects. And the tax foundation. They estimated 00:16:03.309 --> 00:16:06.250 a two point six trillion dollar deficit increase, 00:16:06.529 --> 00:16:08.830 dropping to one point seven trillion dollars 00:16:08.830 --> 00:16:11.549 dynamically. But Smetters pointed out their model 00:16:11.549 --> 00:16:14.029 didn't fully incorporate the economic drag from 00:16:14.029 --> 00:16:16.529 more federal debt. And did the White House or 00:16:16.529 --> 00:16:19.070 Speaker Johnson's office respond to these analyses 00:16:19.070 --> 00:16:20.929 when the source reached out? According to the 00:16:20.929 --> 00:16:23.840 source, no response was received. OK, so. Pulling 00:16:23.840 --> 00:16:25.720 together this section on tariffs and the budget, 00:16:26.320 --> 00:16:28.440 the independent analyses cited in your sources 00:16:28.440 --> 00:16:30.500 paint a very different fiscal picture than the 00:16:30.500 --> 00:16:32.860 official claims, and the potential loss of tariff 00:16:32.860 --> 00:16:34.899 revenue just adds another layer of complexity 00:16:34.899 --> 00:16:38.360 and challenge. Absolutely. A stark contrast based 00:16:38.360 --> 00:16:40.679 on the information you provided. All right, let's 00:16:40.679 --> 00:16:42.840 completely change gears for the last piece. This 00:16:42.840 --> 00:16:45.519 is that historical trivia bit from your sources. 00:16:45.720 --> 00:16:48.139 Really quite amazing. It really is something. 00:16:48.480 --> 00:16:50.980 Your sources note the recent death of a man named 00:16:50.980 --> 00:16:54.460 Harrison Ruffin Tyler. And the kicker is he was 00:16:54.460 --> 00:16:57.379 the grandson of President John Tyler. Grandson? 00:16:57.659 --> 00:17:00.320 Think about that. John Tyler was born in 1790. 00:17:00.720 --> 00:17:04.450 President from 1841 to 1845. died way back in 00:17:04.450 --> 00:17:07.549 1862. And his grandson just passed away, now, 00:17:07.650 --> 00:17:10.450 in our time. It marks the end of a direct family 00:17:10.450 --> 00:17:12.470 link to a president from the first half of the 00:17:12.470 --> 00:17:14.890 19th century. It seems almost impossible. So 00:17:14.890 --> 00:17:17.190 how did it happen? Your sources explain it. President 00:17:17.190 --> 00:17:20.390 John Tyler had quite a few children, 15 in total. 00:17:20.529 --> 00:17:23.109 15. One of them, Lion Gardener Tyler, was born 00:17:23.109 --> 00:17:26.230 when John Tyler was 63. That was in 1853. Okay, 00:17:26.390 --> 00:17:28.079 late in life for the president. And then Lion 00:17:28.079 --> 00:17:30.039 Gardener Tyler apparently followed suit. He had 00:17:30.039 --> 00:17:32.819 six kids, including Harrison Ruffin Tyler, born 00:17:32.819 --> 00:17:37.200 when Lion himself was 75. Wow. So 1853 for the 00:17:37.200 --> 00:17:40.480 son's birth, 1928 for the grandson's birth. That 00:17:40.480 --> 00:17:43.799 explains the huge span. Exactly. The source has 00:17:43.799 --> 00:17:46.539 a bit of fun with it, calling both John and Lion 00:17:46.539 --> 00:17:51.200 dirty old men for having kids that late. Understandable 00:17:51.200 --> 00:17:54.559 comment. And Harrison Tyler, the grandson. Obviously 00:17:54.559 --> 00:17:56.660 never met President Tyler. No, missed him by, 00:17:56.720 --> 00:18:00.039 as the source calculates, a mere 66 years. There's 00:18:00.039 --> 00:18:02.920 also that middle name, Ruffin, comes from his 00:18:02.920 --> 00:18:05.240 mother's side. Yes, connecting him to his great 00:18:05.240 --> 00:18:07.680 -grandfather, Edmund Ruffin. And who was he? 00:18:08.059 --> 00:18:10.559 The sources describe him. Oh yeah. As a white 00:18:10.559 --> 00:18:13.640 supremacist and pro -Confederate zealot. Best 00:18:13.640 --> 00:18:15.640 known, apparently, for ordering the firing of 00:18:15.640 --> 00:18:17.700 the first shot of Fort Sumter. The shot that 00:18:17.700 --> 00:18:19.940 started the Civil War. That's the one. And the 00:18:19.940 --> 00:18:23.619 sources add a grim footnote. Ruffin was so distraught 00:18:23.619 --> 00:18:25.839 when the Confederacy lost that he killed himself. 00:18:26.279 --> 00:18:28.299 The source calls it the last shot of the war. 00:18:28.440 --> 00:18:30.940 Quite a lineage there. Indeed. The source makes 00:18:30.940 --> 00:18:32.779 a rather pointed observation about it. Women 00:18:32.779 --> 00:18:34.819 on both sides of Harrison's family had a taste 00:18:34.819 --> 00:18:38.240 for rhesus with very active libidos. Oof. Sharp 00:18:38.240 --> 00:18:40.099 comment from the source. What about Harrison 00:18:40.099 --> 00:18:42.420 Tyler himself? Did he continue these patterns? 00:18:42.720 --> 00:18:45.099 Seems not. Your sources note he only had three 00:18:45.099 --> 00:18:48.539 kids, the last when he was 32. So he didn't inherit 00:18:48.539 --> 00:18:51.180 that late in life fatherhood habit. And the other 00:18:51.180 --> 00:18:54.700 habit, the racism. The source explicitly states 00:18:54.700 --> 00:18:57.480 he did not inherit the other habit, presumably 00:18:57.480 --> 00:19:00.599 meaning the racist views of his ancestors. It's 00:19:00.599 --> 00:19:02.559 just a remarkable footnote to history, isn't 00:19:02.559 --> 00:19:04.799 it? How these direct lines can stretch across 00:19:04.799 --> 00:19:07.920 centuries makes the past feel surprisingly close. 00:19:08.200 --> 00:19:10.720 It really does put time in a strange perspective. 00:19:10.940 --> 00:19:13.200 So that brings us to the end of this deep dive. 00:19:13.420 --> 00:19:15.480 We've covered a lot of ground based on the sources 00:19:15.480 --> 00:19:17.859 you shared. We really have. From the complexities 00:19:17.859 --> 00:19:20.240 and controversies around immigration and political 00:19:20.240 --> 00:19:22.519 language. To the shifting fortunes of Governor 00:19:22.519 --> 00:19:25.140 DeSantis, the major economic questions around 00:19:25.140 --> 00:19:27.700 tariffs, and the budget based on those independent 00:19:27.700 --> 00:19:29.900 reports. And wrapping up with that incredible 00:19:29.900 --> 00:19:32.460 historical connection, stretching back almost 00:19:32.460 --> 00:19:35.079 200 years. Digging into the sources like this, 00:19:35.259 --> 00:19:37.339 you really get to see the details, the arguments, 00:19:37.539 --> 00:19:39.779 the specific claims, and sometimes, yeah, the 00:19:39.779 --> 00:19:42.500 very strong opinions driving these stories. It's 00:19:42.500 --> 00:19:44.880 a way to quickly get beneath the surface and 00:19:44.880 --> 00:19:47.619 understand the context. And maybe it leaves you, 00:19:47.779 --> 00:19:49.700 the listener, with something to think about. 00:19:50.380 --> 00:19:52.279 Here's a final thought, just building on what 00:19:52.279 --> 00:19:54.779 we've discussed from your materials. How much 00:19:54.779 --> 00:19:56.940 do these echoes from the past, like the deep 00:19:56.940 --> 00:19:59.319 roots of certain political terms, or even these 00:19:59.319 --> 00:20:02.299 long family lines connecting us to history, how 00:20:02.299 --> 00:20:04.980 much do they still shape how we see things today, 00:20:05.039 --> 00:20:07.259 maybe in ways we don't always realize? Something 00:20:07.259 --> 00:20:09.000 to ponder. Thanks for sharing all these sources 00:20:09.000 --> 00:20:11.460 with us. Yes, thank you for joining us for this 00:20:11.460 --> 00:20:12.039 deep dive.