WEBVTT

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Welcome to the Deep Dive. Today we're looking

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at two really significant areas. First, the legal

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and political heat around immigration policy

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right now. And second, this proposed big, beautiful

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bill and what it might mean for the, well, the

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national debt. Yeah, the sources we have give

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us a real window into the current landscape politically

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and economically. Definitely. It's complex stuff,

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but we'll aim to bring some clarity, pull out

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the key insights for you. Exactly. Our goal is

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to sort of look past the headlines, understand

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what's really going on beneath the surface. OK,

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let's get started then. Part one, immigration.

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We have to talk about these pretty dramatic events

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in New Jersey recently. Right. The arrest of

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Newark Mayor Ross Baraka. That was May 9th outside

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an ICE detention center, Delaney Hall. And he

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wasn't alone, was he? He was there with members

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of Congress. That's right. Bonnie Watson Coleman,

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LaMonica MacGyver, and Rob Menendez. They were

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quite open about why they were there. To inspect

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the facility, issue some zoning citations, things

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like that. And what's interesting, initially,

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ICE agents actually let them through the gates.

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They were inside waiting for further access when

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Baraka was apparently asked to leave and wait

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outside. Which he did. Yeah, he went onto the

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public sidewalk. The members of Congress then

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joined him out there. Okay, so they're on the

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public sidewalk. Then what happens? Well, this

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is where things really seem to escalate. Several

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ICE agents came out, some reportedly masked.

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Masked. Yeah, and according to reports, they

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started pushing the female representatives before

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arresting Mayor Baraka right there on the sidewalk.

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Wow. That's quite a scene. Pushing members of

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Congress. It paints a vivid picture, definitely.

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And then the timeline gets even more, let's say,

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curious. Oh, so. Because after Baraka is arrested

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on the sidewalk, the members of Congress were

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then actually given a tour of the facility. Right.

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after the arrest and the alleged pushing? That's

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the sequence reported, which, you know, makes

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it hard to square with any idea that they were

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trying to storm the place or get in improperly.

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Right. That detail seems key. So the initial

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charge was trespassing. What's the deal with

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that legally in New Jersey? Well, trespassing

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is a misdemeanor there. Potential fines, maybe

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even some jaw time. But a key part of proving

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trespassing is showing the person knew they didn't

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have permission. or shouldn't have reasonably

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believed they had permission. And given that

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ICE let them in at first. Exactly. That seems

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like a pretty strong argument that they had a

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reasonable belief of permission, at least initially.

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Which might explain why the charges against Mayor

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Baraka were dropped pretty quickly Monday night.

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It could. One source sort of speculates maybe

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they got the headlines they wanted and didn't

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want the hassle of a tricky legal fight. It's

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not over. Because now Representative McIver is

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facing charges. Yes. New charges filed against

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her. Assault and obstruction of law enforcement.

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Which, again, seems hard to reconcile with the

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fact they were then given a tour after the alleged

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incident. It does raise questions, doesn't it,

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about the motivation. Is it straightforward law

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enforcement or something else, maybe retaliatory?

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And the timing with Pam Bondi's proposal. That

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adds another layer. Right. Her idea to get rid

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of the public integrity unit sign -off needed

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to indict public officials. If that went through,

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it would remove a check, potentially make it

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easier to bring charges like these against officials,

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maybe for political reasons. That's the concern

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some might raise, yeah. Eliminating that layer

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of independent review before indictment. And

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these aren't isolated incidents, apparently.

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The source mentions other things, like IC agents

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allegedly shoving a teenager. Yes, a 16 -year

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-old girl. If these reports hold up, The agents

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involved could be looking at serious legal trouble.

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Load what? Excessive force claims, civil rights

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violations. Plus, there are DHS regulations about

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agents identifying themselves. The reported masks

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could be an issue there, too. So there are limits

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on ICE authority. Absolutely. The Library of

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Congress has a primer on this. Actions like excessive

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force, failure to identify, they likely fall

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outside those legal boundaries. So bottom line,

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what's likely to happen next here? Lawsuits seem

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very probable. Given the high profile nature,

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the charges against MacGyver, the excessive force

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allegations, I'd expect substantial damages claims

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against the officers, maybe the agency itself.

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Okay. Let's shift states, but stay in the legal

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arena, Wisconsin. Judge Hannah Duggan. Right.

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She's pleaded not guilty. The charges are obstructing

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an official proceeding and concealing someone

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from arrest. What's the prosecution saying she

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did? They claim she helped a defendant avoid

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being arrested by ICE agents right there at the

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courthouse, let him and his lawyer slip out a

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side door near her chambers. But he was arrested

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eventually. Yes, he was picked up outside the

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courthouse later on. Did we see a similar case

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involving a judge during the Trump administration?

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Charges were eventually dropped, I think. You're

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right. There was a case in Massachusetts with

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some parallels, and those charges were indeed

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dropped. OK, but here's the really interesting

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part in Judge Dugan's case. Her defense. Ah,

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yes. The motion to dismiss based on official

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acts immunity. Using the precedent from Trump

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v. US, the very case dealing with presidential

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immunity. Exactly. Her lawyers are arguing her

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actions fell within her judicial duties, her

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official acts, and so she should be immune from

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prosecution under that standard. The potential

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irony there is pretty thick, isn't it? Using

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a Trump -related immunity argument in a case

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like this. It's certainly a notable legal strategy.

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We'll have to see how the court responds. Okay,

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one more perspective on immigration before we

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move on. Conservative lawyer John Yoo. Yes. Known

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for authoring the so -called torture memo during

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the Bush administration. And he's raising concerns

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about the current administration's immigration

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policies. He is. Quite strongly, actually. He's

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quoted as saying they've gone too far. Specifically

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regarding what? Primarily their use of the Alien

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Enemies Act. Yu argues Congress hasn't ratified

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its use in this way. And crucially, he says,

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there's no recognized act of war to justify invoking

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it now. He connects that to the Trendy Aragon

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Gang. Yes, he points to that declassified memo

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saying the gang isn't actually an arm of the

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Venezuelan government, which undermines the whole

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invasion rationale for using the AEA against

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Venezuelans or others associated with the gang.

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And he contrasts the current situation with post

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9 -11 detentions. Right. He makes the point that

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even back then, people detained within the US

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under the Alien Enemies Act still received due

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process. He suggests that's not happening now.

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So a difference in treatment for those detained

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inside the US versus, say, captured abroad. Precisely.

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He emphasizes that distinction. And his strongest

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statement, perhaps, is that any attempt to suspend

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habeas corpus? Yes. He says that would absolutely

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be grounds for impeachment. Coming from him,

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that's quite significant. Definitely a viewpoint

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worth noting from that side of the legal spectrum.

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Okay, let's pivot now. We need to talk about

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the economy, specifically the national debt and

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this big, beautiful bill. Right. First, some

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context is probably helpful. The U .S. debt to

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GDP ratio. Where does that stand now? As of May

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2025, it's sitting at 122%, which is high. How

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high compared to history? We're talking levels

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not seen consistently since the aftermath of

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World War II. It peaked at 106 % in 1946. So

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we brought that down significantly after the

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war, right? We did. Got it down to about 32 %

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by the mid -70s. That was driven by strong economic

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growth, some fiscal discipline, even with Cold

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War spending. But the situation now is different.

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Well, yeah. The post -war U .S. had huge manufacturing

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advantages, rapid population growth, factors

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that aren't quite the same today. Relying just

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on growth to shrink the debt might be harder

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now. And we've seen the debt ratio climb more

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recently. Oh yeah. The Reagan era saw increases,

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then the 2008 financial crisis pushed it up.

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And of course, the COVID -19 pandemic response

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sent it spiking to the highest level ever in

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U .S. history. So against that backdrop, enter

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the Big, beautiful bill proposed by President

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Trump, price tag around $3 .34 trillion. What's

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actually in it? OK, the biggest piece is making

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the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent. That alone

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is estimated at about $4 .5 trillion over 10

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years added to the debt. Wow. OK, what else?

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It also proposes eliminating income tax on tips

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and overtime pay. And there's funding for border

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security about $20 billion for ICE and wall construction.

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Are there any proposed offsets? Ways to pay for

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this. The bill suggests some cuts to Medicaid

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and rolling back certain green energy subsidies.

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Okay, so the administration is likely saying

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this pays for itself or even saves money. That

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seems to be the claim, yeah. Projecting $1 .6

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trillion in savings, but... But independent analyses

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disagree. starkly. The Penn -Warton budget model,

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for instance, projects it would add about $3

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.3 trillion to deficits over the decade, not

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save money. That's a huge difference. Almost

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$5 trillion swing between those projections.

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It is. And that analysis also points to increased

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interest costs on the debt because of the extra

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borrowing may be another $1 .4 trillion by 2032.

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So politically, where does this stand? What are

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the odds it actually passes? Well, it squeaked

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through the House Budget Committee. Very narrow

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vote, 17 -16. Only after concessions. Right,

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concessions on Medicaid work requirements to

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bring some fiscal conservatives on board. But

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big fights remain. Like what? Disputes over the

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SALT deduction state and local taxes and more

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arguments over Medicaid reforms. So passage odds

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are seen as moderate, but definitely fragile.

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Speaker Johnson wants votes soon. Aiming for

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before Memorial Day in the House. But the Republican

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majority is razor thin, like 220, 213. They can

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only afford maybe three defections. And the Freedom

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Caucus. They're pushing for even deeper spending

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cuts, which complicates things further. And even

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if it passes the House, the Senate is another

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hurdle. Absolutely. Potential for Republican

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amendments there, which could delay it, water

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it down, maybe even kill it. And public opinion.

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That's a factor too. You're hearing criticism

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already about the tax cuts favoring the wealthy

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and the potential impact of Medicaid cuts could

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worry moderate voters. So we mentioned that high

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debt ratios historically tend to happen during

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emergencies, like wars, and are followed by austerity

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or growth. How does this bill fit that pattern?

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It really tests it, doesn't it? Proposing big,

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deficit -funded tax cuts plus controversial spending

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cuts when we're not in a declared national emergency

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like WWII and the debt is already very high.

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That's unusual territory. Its feet really hangs

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on GOP unity in Congress, then. Pretty much.

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In such a narrowly divided Congress, they need

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almost everyone on board. Okay, let's bring this

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down to a really concrete example. Tariffs. We

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got some numbers from a listener, M .M., in Bloomington,

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Illinois, about Walmart. Yeah, this really puts

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a spotlight on the potential real -world impact

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of these broader trade policies. Walk us through

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the numbers M .M. shared. OK, so Walmart's annual

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cost of goods sold, code GS, is huge, $463 billion.

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And a lot of that comes from China. Estimates

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about 60%. So maybe $278 billion worth of goods

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imported from China each year. Now, apply a potential

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30 % tariff, as has been discussed. A 30 % tariff

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on $278 billion. That's an extra $83 billion,

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roughly, in added cost for Walmart. $83 billion.

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How does that compare to their profit? Well,

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Walmart's net income in 2024 was about $16 .3

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billion. So if Walmart had to absorb that entire

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$83 billion tariff cost. They'd be deep in the

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red. Yeah, looking at a potential loss of around

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$67 billion based on those numbers. And MM notes

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this doesn't even factor in earlier tariff threats.

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That's just staggering. for one company. It is.

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And remember, Walmart has 4 ,600 U .S. stores,

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1 .6 million U .S. employees. They're a massive

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part of the retail landscape, especially groceries.

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So the implication is they probably can't absorb

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that cost. It seems unlikely they could absorb

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all of it, which means those costs or a large

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chunk of them would almost certainly get passed

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on to consumers. higher prices on everyday stuff.

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That's the likely outcome. So a policy aimed

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at, say, boosting domestic industry could end

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up hitting the wallets of American shoppers,

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potentially including the very people who supported

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the policy, hoping for lower costs. And Walmart's

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just one example, right? Many retailers rely

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heavily on imports. Exactly. This potential Walmart

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problem could be a much wider economic issue,

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impacting lots of businesses and consumers if

00:12:32.299 --> 00:12:34.899
such tariffs were broadly applied. It really

00:12:34.899 --> 00:12:37.759
shows how interconnected things are. Wow. Okay.

00:12:38.240 --> 00:12:40.799
So we've covered a lot of ground today, a real

00:12:40.799 --> 00:12:43.200
deep dive. We certainly have, from courtroom

00:12:43.200 --> 00:12:45.740
battles and constitutional questions around immigration.

00:12:46.059 --> 00:12:49.980
to multi -crillion dollar budget proposals and

00:12:49.980 --> 00:12:52.519
the nitty -gritty impact of tariffs on your shopping

00:12:52.519 --> 00:12:55.600
bill. It's a lot to process. It is. So to wrap

00:12:55.600 --> 00:12:58.039
up, we've seen these legal fights over immigration,

00:12:58.460 --> 00:13:00.379
raising questions about executive power, due

00:13:00.379 --> 00:13:02.879
process, the treatment of individuals. And we've

00:13:02.879 --> 00:13:05.279
looked at this huge proposed economic shift,

00:13:05.440 --> 00:13:08.320
the big, beautiful bill, with its potential impacts

00:13:08.320 --> 00:13:10.940
on the national debt, contrasted with the very

00:13:10.940 --> 00:13:13.320
tangible effects of trade policy shown by the

00:13:13.320 --> 00:13:15.519
Walmart example. Which brings us to a final thought.

00:13:15.440 --> 00:13:17.379
maybe something for you to chew on. How do these

00:13:17.379 --> 00:13:19.919
two seemingly separate things, the legal battles

00:13:19.919 --> 00:13:22.259
over who belongs and how they're treated, and

00:13:22.259 --> 00:13:24.600
the big economic plans for taxes and spending,

00:13:24.820 --> 00:13:27.919
how do they connect? What broader vision do they

00:13:27.919 --> 00:13:30.399
reflect about the government's role, about individual

00:13:30.399 --> 00:13:32.399
rights, about the kind of country we're building?

00:13:32.720 --> 00:13:35.259
And looking ahead, what long -term consequences,

00:13:35.620 --> 00:13:38.639
intended or unintended, might you anticipate

00:13:38.639 --> 00:13:41.279
seeing from these developments? It's worth thinking

00:13:41.279 --> 00:13:44.580
about how these big currents legal and economic

00:13:44.580 --> 00:13:47.299
really intertwine and shape the future. Thanks

00:13:47.299 --> 00:13:48.580
for joining us on this deep dive.
