WEBVTT

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Welcome to the deep dive. So you've given us

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quite a stack of information here and well our

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job as always is to pull out the really crucial

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bits for you. That's right. Today we're going

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to tackle three pretty big developments. First

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up the recent. difficult news about Joe Biden's

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health, his cancer diagnosis and what that might

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mean. Then second, we'll dig into the latest

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on the China trade situation under Donald Trump,

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looking at what the experts are saying about

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how that's actually going. Yeah, there's a lot

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of commentary on that one. And third, we need

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to examine the GOP tax plan proposal and crucially,

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its projected impact on the federal deficit.

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OK. So the mission here is clear. Cut through

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the noise. understand the immediate impact, and

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maybe glimpse the longer -term consequences.

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Let's get into it. Absolutely. These are definitely

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major developments, each with ripples now and

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potentially bigger waves down the road. Getting

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the core dynamics is key. OK, let's start with

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the news about former President Biden. It came

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out yesterday from Delaware. His spokesperson

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announced a diagnosis. It's described as an aggressive

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form of prostate cancer. Right. And very sadly,

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it's metastasized to his bones. That sounds,

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well, incredibly serious. It really is serious

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news. Naturally, the statements from, you know,

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Team Biden are emphasizing things like early

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detection, treatment potential. that message

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of resilience. Understandable. But, you know,

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the reality is, hearing aggressive and metastasized

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to the bone is, well, it's sobering. It kind

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of brings that human element, the vulnerability,

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right back into focus, doesn't it? It really

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does. And the timing. I mean, the timing is just,

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wow, this is the week Jake Tapper in Alex Thompson's

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book comes out, the one focusing on Biden's mental

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state. Yeah. Couldn't really write a more awkward

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situation for the author, could you? It's certainly

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a striking coincidence or confluence, maybe.

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Yeah. And you have to think, whatever's in the

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book, This health news. Yeah, it's likely going

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to shift the whole narrative, right? So well,

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now that Biden's out of office, he's not running

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again. Yeah, that intense political focus on

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his mental fitness, which was, let's be honest,

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a huge talking point, especially for Republicans

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and right wing media constantly. That's probably

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going to fade a lot. This diagnosis just changes

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the frame completely. Yeah, it feels like that

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line of political attack just became. Well deeply

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inappropriate really to pursue right now exactly

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and you know Just on a human level, obviously,

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our thoughts are with Mr. Biden. We wish him

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the best for his health, for the treatment. Of

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course. It really does highlight how important

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good health care is. And like you said, early

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detection. Those things, as some sources point

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out, make a huge difference in survival odds.

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That's such a critical point. And for anyone

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listening, the American Cancer Society has excellent

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resources online about cancer screening, checklists

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for tests by age, really valuable stuff. Good

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reminder. OK, let's switch gears now. to the

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economy and specifically the analysis around

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the quote -unquote trade deal with China. that

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Donald Trump announced. The sources you gave

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us here paint a remarkably consistent picture.

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And it doesn't look great for the US side, according

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to these experts. That might be putting it mildly.

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The consensus seems, well, almost universal across

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different political viewpoints, different economic

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schools. Really? Yeah, that this agreement is

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basically a setback for the Trump administration.

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The phrase losing bigly seems to capture the

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general sentiment pretty well. based on these

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analyses. OK, losing bigly. We got some pretty

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short quotes here. Imran Khalid in The Hill,

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he calls it a reluctant American retreat, says

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Beijing outplayed Trump. Then Abraham Newman

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at Georgetown writing for MSNBC calls the whole

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policy an omni shambles, cites chaos and mismanagement.

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Strong words. Very strong. And what's telling

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is, it's not just one perspective. Even the Wall

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Street Journal's editorial board, usually more

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aligned with conservative economics, right? They

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call the tariff rollback a repudiation of Trump's

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policy, a win for economic reality. Heather Stewart

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in The Guardian. She notes the financial markets

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see this temporary truce as basically a capitulation.

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Wow. And it keeps coming. Kyle Chan from Princeton

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in the New York Times calls it inconclusive and

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temporary, but then says the larger trade war

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is being decisively lost. Decisively lost, yeah.

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Max Boot in the Washington Post points out, you

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know, the deal didn't hit Trump's goals, reviving

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manufacturing, cutting the deficit. No. And he

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even mentions Hu Xijin, the former editor of

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China's Global Times, basically claiming victory

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for China. So it was hard to find anyone in these

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sources really backing Trump's position on this.

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Extremely hard. The only piece maybe leaning

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slightly positive that was mentioned came from

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the New York Post. It really highlights how negative

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the overall expert assessment is. So what's the

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best case people are seeing? Well, the kind of

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posited best case seems to be a quiet climb down.

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You know, maybe some small trade changes. Trump

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declares victory anyway, and everyone just tries

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to move on, especially if Peter Navarro's influence

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fades. Right. And it's important, as the source

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material stresses, this isn't necessarily saying

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tariffs never work or that China's trade practices

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are fine. No, exactly. The focus is purely on

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the strategy and the results of this particular

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approach by the Trump administration. Precisely.

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It's about the specific execution. the perceived

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missteps, and the concessions made in this instance.

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Okay, which leads us nicely into the Walmart

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piece of this trade puzzle. Right, the tariffs

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hitting consumers. Yeah, Walmart CEO Doug McMillan

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came out and said, basically we'll probably have

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to raise prices because of these tariffs. And

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Trump's reaction on social media was... Well,

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pure Trump told Walmart to stop trying to blame

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tariffs, said Walmart and China should just eat

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the tariffs. Yeah, that reaction, while, you

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know, typical for his style, maybe misses the

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basic economics here. In this fight, Walmart

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kind of holds the cards, don't they? Yeah, it

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seems like it. They're a huge retailer. Their

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main job is to their shareholders, their bottom

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line. It's almost guaranteed they'll pass those

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tariff costs on to shoppers. Higher prices. Exactly.

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And the source material points out the usual

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ways Trump might pressure a company, you know,

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threats of DOJ investigations, ICE raids, messing

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with government grants. Right. The usual toolkit.

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Those don't really work the same way with a giant

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like Walmart. They're just not vulnerable in

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the same ways. No. But there's an interesting

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potential side effect here, isn't there? What's

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that? By Walmart publicly saying, hey, prices

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are going up because of tariffs. They accidentally

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become this really visible messenger. Ah, nice.

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They're telling American consumers directly,

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this policy is costing you money, which, you

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know, could actually push the administration

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to maybe back off the trade war quietly, avoid

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more bad press, avoid upsetting shoppers even

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more. Interesting angle. OK, let's pivot one

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more time. We need to delve into the proposed

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GOP tax plan. It's making its way through the

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house. All right, it's the taxes spending bill.

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Republicans seem to have made progress, but the

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initial analyses, well, they suggest it might

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not hit the mark on fiscal responsibility, particularly

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the deficit. That's definitely the headline finding

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from the early looks. Despite, you know, the

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usual Republican rhetoric about fiscal discipline,

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this plan is actually projected to increase the

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federal deficit by nearly three trillion dollars

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over 10 years. Three trillion. Wow. How? It essentially

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locks in tax cuts. and some spending increases

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that more than outweigh the cuts they're proposing

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in places like Medicaid and nutrition assistance.

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OK. But we're hearing the counter argument, right?

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That classic Republican line. Tax cuts spur growth.

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Growth brings in more revenue. Deficit problem

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solved. We are hearing that argument, yes. But

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it seems like budget analysts really across the

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board from different perspectives are looking

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at that with a lot of skepticism this time. They

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don't buy it. They seem very doubtful. The general

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warning is that this plan, as it stands, is probably

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going to make the country's long -term fiscal

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picture worse, not better. Now, the bill did

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get through the Budget Committee. But not easily.

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No, not without some internal drama. Some conservative

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members were holding out initially, highlighting

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those ongoing tensions within the party. Yeah,

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you see those fault lines again, don't you? The

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tax cut wing wants lower rates locked in permanently,

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if possible, while the more fiscally hawkish

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group wants deeper spending cuts faster. We saw

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some conservatives end up voting present eventually,

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right? Shows the disagreement. Exactly. And the

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concerns are coming from different angles inside

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the party, too. Some conservatives want clean

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energy credits gone faster, bigger entitlement

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cuts. But then some moderates worry about those

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energy incentives disappearing too quickly, or

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they want changes to the salt deduction cap,

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the state and local tax thing. Right, the salt

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cap. Always contentious. So Speaker Johnson thinks

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it'll pass the House. Arrington says negotiations

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continue. But there are outside pressures too,

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aren't there? Moody's. Yeah, the Moody's downgrade

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of the U .S. credit rating. That definitely hangs

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over this. They specifically cited worries about

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the deficit, the lack of a clear plan to reduce

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it. And the debt is already huge. Interest payments

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alone are costing more than defense spending

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now. It's a stark reminder of the fiscal trajectory.

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Roman Obochi at the Cato Institute had an interesting

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observation, didn't she, saying that, well, despite

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all the campaign talk about spending cuts, Republican

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actions recently seem to prioritize tax cuts

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much more heavily. Though we should include the

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Republican defense of the plan, they argue it

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stops a big tax hike scheduled for 2026. True,

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the expiration of the Trump tax cuts. And it

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achieves some long -sought changes to social

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safety net programs. Russell Vaught, the White

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House budget director, even called the spending

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cuts historic. And you have folks like Representative

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Obernaut framing it as a choice. High tax, high

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spend versus low tax, low spend, arguing the

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latter is better for growth. But the Democrats

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are hitting back hard. Oh, yeah. They're talking

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about people losing health care. more hunger,

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rural hospitals closing, and saying the whole

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thing benefits the rich while just adding to

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the debt. It also seems like Republicans know

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this might not fly as is, right? There's some

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awareness they might need Democratic help later

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to avoid those 2026 tax hikes. There seems to

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be, but the source also noted that Democratic

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alternatives might increase deficits even more.

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So it's complicated. It really just highlights

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this fundamental mismatch, doesn't it? Between

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what the government takes in and what it spends,

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driven by demographics, spending promises, past

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tax cuts, crises. Exactly. A structural imbalance.

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Yeah. And more debt isn't free. It can mean higher

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interest rates for everyone, less private investment,

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real economic consequences. So boiling it down,

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compared to just doing nothing, letting current

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law play out. This GOP plan makes the deficit

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worse by about 13%. That's the analysis, yes.

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Because the tax cuts are just much bigger than

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the spending cuts. We're talking nearly $4 trillion

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in tax cuts versus maybe $1 .6 trillion in spending

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reductions. And some spending actually goes up.

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In certain areas, yeah, like border security,

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defense. According to the Committee for a Responsible

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Federal Budget, the net deficit increase compared

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to doing nothing is around $2 .7 trillion. OK.

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Though analyst Don Schneider at Piper Sandler

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did acknowledge while it worsens the deficit

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early on, there are some real spending cuts in

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there, like with Medicaid. True. And the whole

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Republican bet hinges on growth, right? Growth

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from tax cuts, deregulation, energy production,

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hoping that offsets the deficit jump. Which economists

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are skeptical about? Generally, yes. Yeah. Especially

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since these projections often don't include potential

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drags on the economy like Save from trade wars.

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There's also that other argument some Republicans

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make that the deficit impact looks worse than

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it is because everyone knows those expiring tax

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cuts will get extended anyway. Right. They argue

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if you assume the cuts get extended no matter

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what, then this bill with its spending cuts actually

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reduces the deficit compared to that baseline.

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But that's a big assumption. It is. And Mark

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Golding from the Committee for a Responsible

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Federal Budget points out the opposite. Having

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popular cuts scheduled to expire creates huge

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political pressure to extend them, potentially

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adding even more to the costs down the line.

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He called the costs front -loaded. Okay, so let's

00:12:27.860 --> 00:12:30.340
try to wrap this deep dive up. Key takeaways

00:12:30.340 --> 00:12:33.649
seem to be... Biden's health news adds this layer

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of, well, human reality and uncertainty. The

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first read on Trump's China trade moves from

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the experts we looked at is overwhelmingly negative

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for the U .S. position. A strong consensus there.

00:12:45.909 --> 00:12:48.970
And the GOP tax plan, despite aiming for fiscal

00:12:48.970 --> 00:12:51.590
responsibility, is currently projected to add

00:12:51.590 --> 00:12:54.269
significantly to the deficit over the next decade.

00:12:54.370 --> 00:12:56.409
That's the picture painted by the analysis. Yes,

00:12:56.750 --> 00:12:59.370
a complex set of evolving situations. So this

00:12:59.370 --> 00:13:01.919
dive gives you the listener, a condensed look

00:13:01.919 --> 00:13:04.299
at these moving parts based on the sources provided.

00:13:04.840 --> 00:13:07.460
Dynamic issues, definitely potential long term

00:13:07.460 --> 00:13:10.139
impacts. Absolutely. So here's something to think

00:13:10.139 --> 00:13:13.299
about. Considering all this Biden's health, the

00:13:13.299 --> 00:13:16.460
trade dynamics, the fiscal path, what basic assumptions

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may be about leadership or economic strategy

00:13:18.820 --> 00:13:21.500
or fiscal responsibility? What's being challenged

00:13:21.500 --> 00:13:24.320
for you or what's being reinforced? What questions

00:13:24.320 --> 00:13:25.860
does this raise in your mind about where things

00:13:25.860 --> 00:13:28.259
are headed? Some food for thought until our next

00:13:28.259 --> 00:13:28.799
deep dive.
