WEBVTT

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Welcome back. If you're trying to get a real

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handle on the big news stories without drowning

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in articles, you're in the right place. Exactly.

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Today we're doing a deep dive into some major

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electoral news. We're looking closely at a, well,

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pretty significant Republican budget proposal.

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Right. And also what some recent economic indicators

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are telling us. It's quite a mix. It is. We've

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got news reports, some specific electoral vote

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info in a PDF, and even a bar graph showing these

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proposed budget changes visually. So the mission

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today? To pull out the absolute key info from

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all this. We want to give you clarity on what

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this budget could mean and, you know, the broader

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economic picture right now. OK, let's jump in.

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First up, this thing being called the Republican

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Scorched Earth Budget Plan. Sounds dramatic.

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It does. And to be clear, this is a proposal.

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It's what would happen starting October 1st if

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the new Congress doesn't pass something else.

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So current funding kind of continues until then.

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Got it. But the proposal itself, it's the scale

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of the cuts that's really grabbing headlines,

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right? Absolutely. The proposal asks Congress

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to cut non -defense spending by, get this, over

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$163 billion. Wow. And that visual breakdown

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we looked at, the graph, really paints a picture

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of some, well, potentially huge shifts in where

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the money goes. Huge seems like the right word.

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Let's run through some of these proposed numbers

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because they are pretty stark. State Department

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down 84%. 84, yeah. EPA, the Environmental Protection

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Agency down 55%. HUD, Housing and Urban Development

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down 44%. It keeps going. Labor down 35%. Interior

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31%. HHS, Health and Human Services down 20%.

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Even NASA sees a 24 % cut. Treasury down 19%.

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USDA Agriculture down 18%. Commerce 17%. Education

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gets a 15 % proposed cut, energy 9%, just as

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8%. And smaller but still notable cuts for Veterans

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Affairs, VA down 4%, and transportation down

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5%. So you see this pattern, right? Deep cuts

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across a really wide range of departments. But

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then... And there are the increases. Exactly.

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Defense is proposed to go up by 13%. Okay. And

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Homeland Security, which it's important to note,

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includes USAI, the foreign aid agency that's

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proposed for a massive 65 % increase. 65%. So

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that really spells out the shift in priorities,

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doesn't it? Less money for diplomacy, environment,

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housing, social programs. And a lot more for

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defense and border security, essentially. And

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the sources we looked at gave some idea of the

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intended impacts of these changes. Sometimes

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they sound pretty tough. Yeah, let's touch on

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a few. For agriculture, the cuts could mean things

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like rural development, farm loans, food programs,

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potentially going back to levels not seen since,

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like the Eisenhower administration. Wow. Okay.

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Commerce. Well, commerce supports lots of industries.

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Trade. The stated goal of the cuts there, according

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to the proposal, is partly about limiting China's

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trade leverage. But you have to wonder about

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the impact on U .S. businesses involved in trade

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too, right? That's the question, yeah. On defense,

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well, the aim is clearly just a big boost. Right.

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Education. The idea there, despite cuts to many

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programs, is supposedly to get money more directly

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into schools for kids. How that works in practice.

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TBD. Could see rollbacks of some recent funding,

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especially things aimed at helping low -income

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and minority communities transition to new energy

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sources. And the EPA cut, 55%. That sounds like

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it would have to affect things like monitoring

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pollution, toxic waste cleanup. It seems unavoidable,

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yeah. HHS widespread cuts across health initiatives,

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homeland securities increase. Specifically linked

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to border security and the term used was mass

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deportations. Okay. Housing and urban development

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cuts could hit rental assistance, programs fighting

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housing discrimination. Interior cuts. That's

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likely bad news for national parks, fish and

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wildlife, conservation efforts. Justice Department

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focus seems to be shifting heavily towards tough

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on crime, FBI stuff, border enforcement. Labor

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Department. more focus on vocational training,

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specifically for the 16 to 24 age group. NASA

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seems focused on Mars and commercial space. State

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department cuts are tied to foreign aid reductions,

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ending what the proposal calls radical leftist

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priorities. Transportation, less money for transit,

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more focus on essential travel. Treasury? Maybe

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less tax enforcement, which could affect how

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much scrutiny wealthy individuals or corporations

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face. And Veterans Affairs, VA, potentially more

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privatization of medical care. It's a lot. And

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the sources really highlighted the potential

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human cost. Things like summer food programs

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for kids, help with heating or cooling bills,

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title education funding for lower income schools.

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These are specifically mentioned as potentially

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being hit hard. Seems like it could really change

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the social safety net. That's the concern, yeah.

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Did we get any political reaction in the sources?

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We did. Senator Susan Collins, for example, was

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quoted saying something like, this is pretty

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unlikely to actually pass the Senate. Why is

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that? Well, she pointed out it hits a lot of

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programs that are popular, even in blue states,

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things people rely on. Makes sense. Anyone arguing

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for it. Representative Mike Conaway from Texas

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framed it as reflecting Republican priorities,

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strong defense, supporting the military. And

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the House Appropriations Chair, Tom Cole. He

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basically acknowledged it's a really tough budget

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environment and working with that slim House

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majority makes things difficult. There's also

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mention of the salt cap, the state and local

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tax deduction. Right. That complicates things

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in the Senate, too. To get some votes, especially

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maybe from Republicans in high tax states, there

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might be pressure to raise that cap. But that

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could alienate other Republicans. Exactly. So

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politically, it's a it's a tricky path forward

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for this proposal, to say the least. OK, let's

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shift gears a bit, but stay on the economy. We

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also saw some really interesting polling data.

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Yeah, this is from an ABC News Ipsos poll, and

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the numbers were quite striking, especially visually.

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What stood out? Well, first, disapproval of Donald

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Trump's handling of the economy when he was president

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sits at 55 percent versus 39 percent approval.

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OK, so more disapproval than approval. Right.

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And looking forward, only 21 % think the economy

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is actually getting better right now. 53%, a

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majority, think it's getting worse. And people

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are feeling price increases. Oh, yeah. 25 % said

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prices for necessities went up a lot. Another

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62 % said a little. So almost everyone is feeling

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it. But here's the kicker, right? The question

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about blame if a recession hits. This was fascinating.

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The poll asked if the economy does fall into

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recession, whose policies would be mainly to

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blame? A huge majority. 72 percent said Trump's

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policies. 72 percent. Wow. Compared to only 28

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percent who think his policies wouldn't be a

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factor. Exactly. That's a really big gap. It

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suggests that even people who might have approved

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of his economic handling before could still blame

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his policies if things go south now. So that

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could be a major challenge for him politically

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if there's a downturn say before July or leading

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into an election. You'd have to think so. That's

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a significant number pointing potential blame

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his way. The source also briefly mentioned potential

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shortages and supply chain issues, especially

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with China, but didn't really elaborate much.

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OK. Now, speaking of the former president, he's

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been out there talking to our sources mentioned

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a big interview. Yeah, he sat down with Kristen

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Welker on Meet the Press for like 74 minutes,

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covered a lot of ground, apparently, though our

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specific source didn't detail the whole thing.

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But we do have notes on his take on recession

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fears generally. Right. He seems to be downplaying

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them, saying the US would be OK, basically. Yeah.

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Not a major concern from his perspective. Had

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he mentioned businesses? Yeah. Claimed many are

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being helped. And interestingly, said small businesses

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wouldn't need to deport workers without proper

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papers during an emergency. Kind of a specific

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point. And tariffs on China. Still pushing those.

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Definitely. Same argument. Unfair trade. China

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defrauding the U .S. for decades. He also pushed

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back on the idea that Chinese goods are better,

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even if cheaper. Any reflections on some of his

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more unusual past ideas, like buying Greenland?

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He mentioned that. Said he didn't pursue Greenland

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or a big military parade because of the cost.

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And the wall. Still planning on it if re -elected,

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he said, and still maintains Mexico will pay

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indirectly through trade deals. What about Social

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Security, Medicare, Medicaid? Always a hot topic.

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He claimed he won't make cuts, but acknowledged

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other Republicans might want to. That's a line

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he's drawn before. Interesting. He also weighed

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in on that Harvard student situation, the ones

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who lost job offers. Yes, he sided with the employers,

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saying they were right to pull the offers because

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of the students' pro -Palestine stance. And his

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reaction to the Letitia James investigation in

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New York? Called it a shame. Pretty standard

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reaction from him on that. Foreign policy, Ukraine

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and Russia. Expressed confidence he could settle

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the war quickly. Even floated the idea that Ukraine

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might have to give up some territory. NATO. Same

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message. Other members need to pay more. And

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he mentioned Mark Walker, the potential Senate

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candidate. She said Walker should make up his

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mind soon about running. So yeah, hitting a lot

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of his familiar themes, keeping himself in the

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conversation. Absolutely. And he's not the only

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prominent Republican voice weighing in. Marjorie

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Taylor Greene has been outspoken too, hasn't

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she? Very much so, especially on Ukraine. She's

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strongly against more funding. Her argument is

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that it's just provoking Russia and dragging

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out the war. What's her alternative? Focus on

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U .S. border security instead. That's her main

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point. And Iran. She expressed real concern there,

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worried about the potential for war. She also

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raised issues about accountability. Right. Yeah.

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Questioning why no one's been held responsible

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for the Afghanistan withdrawal chaos or. The

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origins of COVID -19. On this weaponization of

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government theme. Big concern for her. Feels

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conservatives are being targeted unfairly. She

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urged Republicans to be more aggressive in protecting

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their voters. She had a specific claim about

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Ukraine too, didn't she? Something about resources.

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Right. Suggested the conflict is partly about

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access to Ukraine's mineral wealth and that Russia

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could end up benefiting from that. So her overall

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view is more inward looking. Less intervention.

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Seems that way. Worry about getting dragged into

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bigger global conflicts. Focus on domestic issues.

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OK, one last piece from our deep dive today.

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This involves potential confirmations in the

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Senate. Yeah, this was interesting. Representative

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Mark Walker is predicting a tough time for Representative

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Mike Waltz's confirmation hearing. Waltz is up

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for a UN ambassador role or something similar.

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The source mentioned UN ambassador nominees generally

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and Waltz specifically. The issue is Senator

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Tom Tillis. What's he doing? He's put a hold

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on all these nominees until he gets more information

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from the Department of Defense about protocols

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protecting service members. Ah, so it's not about

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Waltz specifically, but Tillis's hold affects

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him. Exactly. Walker's take is that this hold

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puts Waltz in a really difficult position for

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his hearing. He'll have to address Tillis's concerns.

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And Walker thinks it'll be tough. He called it

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a potential brutal hearing and basically said

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it's unclear how Waltz navigates it. It just

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shows how these internal Senate procedures and

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holds can really complicate things. Right. Okay,

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that was a lot to cover. Let's try and pull the

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threads together. So we've got this proposed

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Republican budget with really drastic shifts,

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big cuts to domestic programs, big boosts for

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defense and homeland security. Then we have the

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economic side polls showing public worry about

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recession and significantly a strong tendency

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to blame past Trump policies if one hits. We

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heard directly from Trump downplaying those recession

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fears, sticking to his positions on trade entitlements

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foreign policy. And we heard from figures like

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Marjorie Taylor Greene pushing back against foreign

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intervention, focusing on domestic issues and

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accountability. Plus that inside look at how

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Senate politics like Tellus's hole can impact

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confirmations like Walters. For me, the real

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aha moments were first just the raw numbers in

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that budget proposal, an 84 percent cut to the

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State Department, 55 percent to EPA. It really

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forces you to think about what government priorities

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would look like under that plan. I agree. And

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that polling number, 72 percent, potentially

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blaming Trump for a future recession. That feels

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like a really significant data point in the current

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political landscape. Absolutely. And for you

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listening, this is an abstract stuff, is it?

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Not at all. Potential changes to heating assistance,

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food programs, environmental rules, education

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funding, tax enforcement. These are things can

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directly impact your community, your family,

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your wallet. It really connects the policy debates

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to everyday life. Which leads us to maybe a final

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thought to leave you with. We've talked about

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these huge proposed budget shifts, this economic

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anxiety, these differing political visions. The

00:12:46.669 --> 00:12:49.850
question is, what are the potential long term

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consequences of all this? Regardless of who wins

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elections or which specific policies get enacted,

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if you have these deep divisions on spending

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priorities and this underlying economic worry,

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what does that mean for the country's social

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cohesion, its ability to tackle big problems,

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and its role in the world down the road? Thinking

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about the assumptions behind these plans and

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what unintended consequences might ripple out?

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Exactly. Something to chew on.
