WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.819 Welcome you. You've definitely sent over some 00:00:02.819 --> 00:00:04.719 fascinating stuff this week. Really paints a 00:00:04.719 --> 00:00:07.799 picture of, well, the current moment. It certainly 00:00:07.799 --> 00:00:11.080 does. A lot to unpack. Yeah. So today we're diving 00:00:11.080 --> 00:00:14.080 deep, looking at the first hundred days of the 00:00:14.080 --> 00:00:16.960 second Trump term. Right. And contrasting that 00:00:16.960 --> 00:00:20.829 with a frankly, surprising story about vulnerability. 00:00:21.149 --> 00:00:24.390 And also this curious pattern of behavior our 00:00:24.390 --> 00:00:26.850 sources flagged, all coming from Electoral Vote 00:00:26.850 --> 00:00:30.649 News, the April 18th, 2025 editions. Exactly. 00:00:30.809 --> 00:00:32.750 So our mission really is to pull out the key 00:00:32.750 --> 00:00:34.990 insights for you, help make sense of the big 00:00:34.990 --> 00:00:38.090 developments, maybe find some of those aha moments 00:00:38.090 --> 00:00:40.710 without getting bogged down. OK, sounds good. 00:00:41.310 --> 00:00:43.270 Let's let's jump right in. The first 100 days, 00:00:43.369 --> 00:00:46.719 usually Kenny Moon. Supposedly. But these reports 00:00:46.719 --> 00:00:48.960 suggest it's been more of a bumpy ride for Trump 00:00:48.960 --> 00:00:52.039 2 .0. Yeah, they mentioned this sort of do -stuff 00:00:52.039 --> 00:00:54.159 -now -worry -later approach, and it's already 00:00:54.159 --> 00:00:56.140 having some impact. That's a core theme, yeah. 00:00:56.700 --> 00:00:59.320 The analysis hit several areas where the administration's 00:00:59.320 --> 00:01:01.560 well -hitting resistance pretty early on. Let's 00:01:01.560 --> 00:01:03.799 start with the economy, described as being on, 00:01:03.799 --> 00:01:06.750 quote, shaky footing. And the timeline suggests 00:01:06.750 --> 00:01:09.549 the downturn really kicked in after January 20th. 00:01:09.750 --> 00:01:11.930 Right. Which makes trying to blame Biden. A bit 00:01:11.930 --> 00:01:14.709 tricky timing -wise. Yeah. So instead, the focus 00:01:14.709 --> 00:01:17.650 shifts back to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. 00:01:18.349 --> 00:01:21.150 Labeling him too late and wrong. Even talk of 00:01:21.150 --> 00:01:23.739 firing him. But as the report notes, that's not 00:01:23.739 --> 00:01:25.859 so easy, is it? Not at all. You need to show 00:01:25.859 --> 00:01:29.079 malfeasance actual wrongdoing. It's a high legal 00:01:29.079 --> 00:01:31.599 bar, not just, you know, disagreeing with policy. 00:01:32.000 --> 00:01:34.159 And then there are the economic claims themselves, 00:01:34.640 --> 00:01:37.060 getting rich on tariffs. Well, first, that's 00:01:37.060 --> 00:01:39.420 not really how tariffs work for the whole country's 00:01:39.420 --> 00:01:41.099 wealth. And second, they haven't been in place 00:01:41.099 --> 00:01:43.319 long enough anyway. Exactly. And then the really 00:01:43.319 --> 00:01:46.920 standout claim, egg price is down 92 percent. 00:01:47.099 --> 00:01:49.599 I saw that. It seemed. Wild. It is. The actual 00:01:49.599 --> 00:01:53.980 numbers. $5 .81 at the inauguration, now $6 .23. 00:01:54.359 --> 00:01:57.280 So up, not down dramatically. So why make a claim 00:01:57.280 --> 00:02:00.840 that's so easily disproven? What's the strategy 00:02:00.840 --> 00:02:03.040 there? That's the million dollar question, isn't 00:02:03.040 --> 00:02:05.299 it? Maybe it's less about convincing everyone 00:02:05.299 --> 00:02:08.180 and more about sort of reinforcing a narrative 00:02:08.180 --> 00:02:11.439 for the base, regardless of facts, especially 00:02:11.439 --> 00:02:13.840 if the underlying economic news isn't great. 00:02:14.979 --> 00:02:17.419 And then the big promises like a trade deal with 00:02:17.419 --> 00:02:20.310 Europe. within weeks. Highly unlikely. Trade 00:02:20.310 --> 00:02:23.310 deals are complex. They take ages. Think NAFTA, 00:02:23.490 --> 00:02:26.569 TPP. Negotiating those takes years, not weeks. 00:02:26.830 --> 00:02:29.189 OK, so the economy is one area of friction. What 00:02:29.189 --> 00:02:31.810 about the courts? Sounds like significant pushback 00:02:31.810 --> 00:02:34.090 there, too. Oh, definitely. The Kilmore Abrego 00:02:34.090 --> 00:02:37.069 Garcia case is a prime example. Remind us. OK, 00:02:37.069 --> 00:02:39.610 so he was wrongly deported. The Supreme Court 00:02:39.610 --> 00:02:42.069 actually sent the case back down. Then the district 00:02:42.069 --> 00:02:44.330 court ordered the administration to, and this 00:02:44.330 --> 00:02:46.710 is the word they used, facilitate his release. 00:02:46.870 --> 00:02:48.849 And the administration's response? They refused. 00:02:49.050 --> 00:02:51.949 Filed for an emergency stay. Wow. Which led to 00:02:51.949 --> 00:02:56.150 this really strongly worded unanimous rejection 00:02:56.150 --> 00:02:58.449 from the Fourth Circuit panel. Unanimous. Yeah. 00:02:58.930 --> 00:03:01.229 And Judge Harvey Wilkinson, a Reagan appointee, 00:03:01.569 --> 00:03:05.060 conservative judge. The report says he was clearly 00:03:05.060 --> 00:03:06.979 frustrated. What did he say? He basically asked, 00:03:07.180 --> 00:03:09.919 look, if you could deport someone without due 00:03:09.919 --> 00:03:13.659 process and then just say, not our problem, what 00:03:13.659 --> 00:03:16.479 stops you doing that to anyone, even an American 00:03:16.479 --> 00:03:18.879 citizen? It raises really fundamental questions 00:03:18.879 --> 00:03:22.669 about checks on power. And the cost. The report 00:03:22.669 --> 00:03:25.849 mentioned 14 million dollars just to detain these 00:03:25.849 --> 00:03:28.250 wrongly deported people under US control. 14 00:03:28.250 --> 00:03:31.729 million. Taxpayer money. For essentially cleaning 00:03:31.729 --> 00:03:33.990 up a mistake they refused to acknowledge initially. 00:03:34.250 --> 00:03:35.870 And then there's the Supreme Court agreeing to 00:03:35.870 --> 00:03:38.409 hear the birthright citizenship case. The executive 00:03:38.409 --> 00:03:41.069 order. Right. And Electoral Vote News seems pretty 00:03:41.069 --> 00:03:42.969 confident this will be a loss for the administration. 00:03:43.110 --> 00:03:45.210 Why so confident? Well, the law seems clear. 00:03:45.330 --> 00:03:47.629 It's Congress's authority. Overturning it would 00:03:47.629 --> 00:03:50.870 cause chaos. Plus... It could really damage the 00:03:50.870 --> 00:03:53.129 court's own credibility. Yeah. They predict at 00:03:53.129 --> 00:03:55.449 least one, probably two Supreme Court defeats 00:03:55.449 --> 00:03:57.669 for Trump. So the courts are definitely acting 00:03:57.669 --> 00:04:00.210 as a check. It appears so, a pattern we saw in 00:04:00.210 --> 00:04:02.389 the first term, too, perhaps indicating some 00:04:02.389 --> 00:04:04.610 institutional resilience. OK, let's shift to 00:04:04.610 --> 00:04:07.629 Congress, the Senate. Any signs of resistance 00:04:07.629 --> 00:04:10.210 there, particularly among Republicans? Early 00:04:10.210 --> 00:04:13.689 signs, yes. Senator Roger Wicker from Mississippi 00:04:13.689 --> 00:04:16.910 is mentioned. He's usually pretty reliably partisan, 00:04:17.069 --> 00:04:19.540 right? He is. But as chair of the Armed Services 00:04:19.540 --> 00:04:22.360 Committee, he's apparently pushing back on troop 00:04:22.360 --> 00:04:24.899 withdrawals, criticizing the defense secretary, 00:04:25.160 --> 00:04:27.819 Hegseth, over that whole signal issue. Why can 00:04:27.819 --> 00:04:30.339 he do that, do you think? Well, the report suggests 00:04:30.339 --> 00:04:33.240 a few reasons. He's senior, very popular back 00:04:33.240 --> 00:04:36.000 home in a deep red state, and he's not up for 00:04:36.000 --> 00:04:38.879 reelection until 2030. Gives him some breathing 00:04:38.879 --> 00:04:41.120 room, perhaps? Makes sense. And then there's 00:04:41.120 --> 00:04:43.180 Senator Lisa Murkowski from Alaska. Yeah, more 00:04:43.180 --> 00:04:45.800 of a moderate, traditional Republican. She's 00:04:45.800 --> 00:04:48.899 quoted criticizing unlawful actions and, interestingly, 00:04:49.360 --> 00:04:51.399 lamenting the lack of wider resistance in the 00:04:51.399 --> 00:04:54.079 party. She said the fear of retaliation is real. 00:04:54.240 --> 00:04:56.959 She did, which is quite a statement. And she 00:04:56.959 --> 00:04:58.839 predicts more pushback coming, especially on 00:04:58.839 --> 00:05:01.180 things like potential Medicaid cuts. It feels 00:05:01.180 --> 00:05:04.220 unusual to hear that kind of open criticism from 00:05:04.220 --> 00:05:06.600 within the party this early in a term. It does. 00:05:06.660 --> 00:05:08.759 It raises questions about party unity down the 00:05:08.759 --> 00:05:10.639 line. OK, what about other centers of power, 00:05:10.939 --> 00:05:13.360 law firms? The report mentioned some initial 00:05:13.360 --> 00:05:16.100 pressure for pro bono work. Yeah, seemed like 00:05:16.100 --> 00:05:18.139 some initial success there for the administration. 00:05:18.279 --> 00:05:20.560 Yeah. But the report suggests the continued demands 00:05:20.560 --> 00:05:24.029 might be causing a backlash. How so? Well, firms 00:05:24.029 --> 00:05:26.069 have to weigh things up right. If they start 00:05:26.069 --> 00:05:29.470 losing associates or if other clients get nervous 00:05:29.470 --> 00:05:32.110 about the firm being seen as too close to controversial 00:05:32.110 --> 00:05:34.470 policies. Then it might become better business 00:05:34.470 --> 00:05:38.129 to just say no. Exactly. The cost of complying 00:05:38.129 --> 00:05:41.389 might start to outweigh the benefit or the perceived 00:05:41.389 --> 00:05:43.850 avoidance of trouble. And universities. Harvard's 00:05:43.850 --> 00:05:45.730 been getting a lot of pressure. Huge pressure. 00:05:46.170 --> 00:05:49.009 Threats over tax -exempt status, international 00:05:49.009 --> 00:05:52.680 student visas. Yeah. It's serious. But the analysis 00:05:52.680 --> 00:05:55.199 suggests Harvard might have to fight back. Yeah, 00:05:55.240 --> 00:05:57.199 the argument is they almost have no choice but 00:05:57.199 --> 00:05:59.879 to fight. And if Harvard stands firm, it could 00:05:59.879 --> 00:06:03.379 encourage others like Columbia, Princeton. Precisely. 00:06:03.720 --> 00:06:06.120 A united front for major universities would be 00:06:06.120 --> 00:06:07.980 a much bigger obstacle for the administration. 00:06:08.500 --> 00:06:11.279 Interesting. And the media? Any surprises there? 00:06:12.000 --> 00:06:14.720 Not huge surprises, perhaps. Despite some worries, 00:06:14.860 --> 00:06:17.019 the report says the mainstream media is mostly 00:06:17.019 --> 00:06:19.339 holding the line, providing critical coverage. 00:06:19.519 --> 00:06:22.339 And the reliance on truth social kind of proves 00:06:22.339 --> 00:06:24.500 that point. It suggests they aren't getting the 00:06:24.500 --> 00:06:26.800 coverage they want elsewhere. Yeah. And the report 00:06:26.800 --> 00:06:30.199 specifically highlights a very strong op -ed 00:06:30.199 --> 00:06:32.980 by David Brooks, the conservative columnist in 00:06:32.980 --> 00:06:35.620 the New York Times. That's the one calling for 00:06:35.620 --> 00:06:39.839 a comprehensive national civic uprising. That's 00:06:39.839 --> 00:06:41.560 powerful language coming from that direction. 00:06:41.680 --> 00:06:45.839 Wow. OK. And finally, on the first hundred days 00:06:45.839 --> 00:06:49.389 in fighting. Oh, yeah. Very public feuds. Musk 00:06:49.389 --> 00:06:51.730 versus Navarro. House Republicans squabbling 00:06:51.730 --> 00:06:54.750 over the budget. Vance versus McConnell. It's 00:06:54.750 --> 00:06:56.889 all out there. Which causes problems, presumably. 00:06:57.110 --> 00:06:59.329 Two main ones, according to the report. One, 00:06:59.449 --> 00:07:02.889 it just looks unprofessional, chaotic. Two, public 00:07:02.889 --> 00:07:05.029 fights often lead to leaks as different sides 00:07:05.029 --> 00:07:06.889 try to get their narrative out. And how's all 00:07:06.889 --> 00:07:08.689 this playing out in the polls? Approval ratings? 00:07:08.889 --> 00:07:11.949 The picture is mixed, I guess. Trump seems solid 00:07:11.949 --> 00:07:14.209 with Republicans, but the report says he's doing 00:07:14.209 --> 00:07:16.470 very poorly with independents. Yeah, poor little... 00:07:16.430 --> 00:07:19.329 The average across 10 recent polls gives us a 00:07:19.329 --> 00:07:23.310 net disapproval of minus 16 .8. Ouch. Independence 00:07:23.310 --> 00:07:26.370 are key. Absolutely. And for context, his current 00:07:26.370 --> 00:07:29.589 average is about 5 .5 points underwater. That's 00:07:29.589 --> 00:07:31.850 only a bit better than his record low at the 00:07:31.850 --> 00:07:34.230 100 day mark in his first term, which is 8 points 00:07:34.230 --> 00:07:36.810 underwater. So not a strong position with that 00:07:36.810 --> 00:07:39.990 crucial group. Doesn't seem like it. The overall 00:07:39.990 --> 00:07:43.009 take from electoral vote news, the initial sort 00:07:43.009 --> 00:07:46.170 of shock and awe seems to be fading. The administration 00:07:46.170 --> 00:07:49.009 is fighting too many battles, often on ground 00:07:49.009 --> 00:07:51.589 that isn't favorable to them. Right. A challenging 00:07:51.589 --> 00:07:54.089 start, to say the least. Seems that way. OK, 00:07:54.170 --> 00:07:56.670 let's pivot now. There's this other section in 00:07:56.670 --> 00:07:59.230 the report under the heading Schadenfreude. Ah, 00:07:59.350 --> 00:08:02.399 yes. The arrest of Fred Piccolo Jr. Former DeSantis 00:08:02.399 --> 00:08:05.180 guy worked at New College, arrested for alleged 00:08:05.180 --> 00:08:07.639 behavior at a Banana Republic. The details are, 00:08:07.639 --> 00:08:09.860 well, bizarre. They are quite specific and unusual. 00:08:10.139 --> 00:08:12.240 But what the report really focuses on is the 00:08:12.240 --> 00:08:14.660 question this raises. Which is? Why, it asks, 00:08:14.899 --> 00:08:17.019 are so many Trumpers involved in this kind of 00:08:17.019 --> 00:08:20.259 behavior? And it lists examples. Gates, Hegseth, 00:08:20.500 --> 00:08:23.899 Musk, RFK Jr., Trump himself. Now, the report 00:08:23.899 --> 00:08:25.899 does acknowledge the usual objections, right? 00:08:26.199 --> 00:08:28.480 Media bias? Maybe we just remember these cases 00:08:28.480 --> 00:08:31.040 more easily. It does. It addresses those counter 00:08:31.040 --> 00:08:33.639 arguments, but it suggests they don't fully explain 00:08:33.639 --> 00:08:36.899 it. They point to coverage of figures across 00:08:36.899 --> 00:08:39.259 the spectrum, Weiner, Clinton, Franken, Biden, 00:08:40.000 --> 00:08:42.919 and argue the severity or, you know, the factual 00:08:42.919 --> 00:08:45.159 basis of the allegations against the list of 00:08:45.159 --> 00:08:48.120 Trumpers is notable. So what's the theory they 00:08:48.120 --> 00:08:51.080 float? It's presented very much as speculation, 00:08:51.399 --> 00:08:54.480 a question being pondered. But the idea is... 00:08:55.399 --> 00:08:59.019 Trumpism is about unchecked id, and sexual misconduct 00:08:59.019 --> 00:09:00.600 is about unchecked id. And so, of course, that 00:09:00.600 --> 00:09:03.000 Venn diagram has a lot of overlap. Unchecked 00:09:03.000 --> 00:09:06.039 id. So impulse control, breaking norms. Something 00:09:06.039 --> 00:09:07.519 like that seems to be the connection they're 00:09:07.519 --> 00:09:09.379 suggesting. Again, it's framed as a question, 00:09:09.460 --> 00:09:11.600 not a conclusion, but it's definitely thought 00:09:11.600 --> 00:09:13.759 -provoking. It is. It makes you think about the 00:09:13.759 --> 00:09:16.600 culture around certain movements, maybe. Perhaps. 00:09:17.000 --> 00:09:19.120 Now, completely shifting gears, there is also 00:09:19.120 --> 00:09:21.559 a Freud and Freud section. A much more positive 00:09:21.559 --> 00:09:24.029 story. Yes. Jaren Duran, the Red Sox player. 00:09:24.230 --> 00:09:26.389 Exactly. He had that great breakout season, but 00:09:26.389 --> 00:09:29.169 this is about something deeper. His openness 00:09:29.169 --> 00:09:31.850 in that Netflix documentary. Oh, right. The clubhouse. 00:09:32.250 --> 00:09:35.429 He talked about his depression. He did. Very 00:09:35.429 --> 00:09:38.250 openly. Shared an incredibly vulnerable story 00:09:38.250 --> 00:09:40.529 from twenty twenty two. What did he share? He 00:09:40.529 --> 00:09:43.730 talked about being in a really dark place, described 00:09:43.730 --> 00:09:46.970 having his rifle, a bullet pulling the trigger. 00:09:47.070 --> 00:09:50.129 Oh, my gosh. And the gun just clicked, didn't 00:09:50.129 --> 00:09:53.720 fire. Wow. He said he saw that moment as a sign, 00:09:54.320 --> 00:09:56.980 a wake -up call to, quote, look myself in the 00:09:56.980 --> 00:09:59.440 mirror. That takes incredible courage to share, 00:09:59.759 --> 00:10:01.539 especially in professional sports. Absolutely. 00:10:02.000 --> 00:10:03.539 And his reason for sharing, he said he wanted 00:10:03.539 --> 00:10:05.679 to help any baseball fans out there who might 00:10:05.679 --> 00:10:09.580 be in a similar dark place. That's really powerful. 00:10:09.679 --> 00:10:12.059 It really is. The report notes how much courage 00:10:12.059 --> 00:10:14.740 that takes, given the often, you know, hyper 00:10:14.740 --> 00:10:16.759 -masculine culture in baseball. Has there been 00:10:16.759 --> 00:10:19.679 reaction? Yes, very supportive. Both the Commissioner, 00:10:19.820 --> 00:10:22.299 Rob Manfred, and his manager, Alex Cora, praised 00:10:22.299 --> 00:10:24.399 his openness. That's good to hear. It's such 00:10:24.399 --> 00:10:26.960 an important conversation. It truly is. And it's 00:10:26.960 --> 00:10:28.980 a good moment to remind everyone listening, you 00:10:28.980 --> 00:10:31.279 included, if you or someone you know is struggling, 00:10:31.519 --> 00:10:34.259 please reach out. The Suicide and Crisis Lifeline 00:10:34.259 --> 00:10:37.879 is there. 247 - just call or text 9 -8 -8. 9 00:10:37.879 --> 00:10:39.759 -8 -8. Definitely keep that number handy. Thank 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:43.139 you. Of course. Duran's story is just a powerful 00:10:43.139 --> 00:10:46.899 reminder of, well, the strength and vulnerability. 00:10:47.159 --> 00:10:49.179 So we've covered quite a range today, the political 00:10:49.179 --> 00:10:52.580 battles of the first hundred days. The tough 00:10:52.580 --> 00:10:56.179 terrain the administration seems to be on. It's 00:10:56.179 --> 00:10:58.820 unsettling question about patterns of behavior. 00:10:58.940 --> 00:11:00.980 Raised by the pickle arrest and other examples. 00:11:01.220 --> 00:11:04.120 And then this really moving story of Jaren Duran's 00:11:04.120 --> 00:11:06.700 resilience and openness. Yeah, quite the mix. 00:11:06.960 --> 00:11:09.639 What stands out most to you looking back over 00:11:09.639 --> 00:11:11.440 these pieces? Is there something that connects 00:11:11.440 --> 00:11:14.240 them? Or do they just show different facets of 00:11:14.240 --> 00:11:16.700 where things are right now? That's a great question 00:11:16.700 --> 00:11:19.200 to ponder. And maybe that leads to our final 00:11:19.200 --> 00:11:21.860 thought for you, the listener. How do these seemingly 00:11:21.860 --> 00:11:25.179 unconnected things to say, the political struggles, 00:11:25.360 --> 00:11:27.419 the questions about personal conduct, the story 00:11:27.419 --> 00:11:30.039 of overcoming personal demons, maybe reflect 00:11:30.220 --> 00:11:32.779 deeper currents. Deeper currents in society. 00:11:33.159 --> 00:11:35.179 Or just how individuals react under pressure. 00:11:35.440 --> 00:11:37.700 Exactly. Is there maybe a common thread here 00:11:37.700 --> 00:11:41.019 about struggles for control, political control, 00:11:41.279 --> 00:11:43.419 institutional control, even personal control? 00:11:43.679 --> 00:11:45.620 Something to think about. Definitely something 00:11:45.620 --> 00:11:49.480 to mull over. We hope this deep dive into the 00:11:49.480 --> 00:11:51.559 latest from Electoral Vote News gave you some 00:11:51.559 --> 00:11:54.179 valuable insights. And maybe spark some further 00:11:54.179 --> 00:11:56.320 thinking on these important topics. Until our 00:11:56.320 --> 00:11:57.220 next deep dive.