Welcome you. You've definitely sent over some
fascinating stuff this week. Really paints a
picture of, well, the current moment. It certainly
does. A lot to unpack. Yeah. So today we're diving
deep, looking at the first hundred days of the
second Trump term. Right. And contrasting that
with a frankly, surprising story about vulnerability.
And also this curious pattern of behavior our
sources flagged, all coming from Electoral Vote
News, the April 18th, 2025 editions. Exactly.
So our mission really is to pull out the key
insights for you, help make sense of the big
developments, maybe find some of those aha moments
without getting bogged down. OK, sounds good.
Let's let's jump right in. The first 100 days,
usually Kenny Moon. Supposedly. But these reports
suggest it's been more of a bumpy ride for Trump
2 .0. Yeah, they mentioned this sort of do -stuff
-now -worry -later approach, and it's already
having some impact. That's a core theme, yeah.
The analysis hit several areas where the administration's
well -hitting resistance pretty early on. Let's
start with the economy, described as being on,
quote, shaky footing. And the timeline suggests
the downturn really kicked in after January 20th.
Right. Which makes trying to blame Biden. A bit
tricky timing -wise. Yeah. So instead, the focus
shifts back to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Labeling him too late and wrong. Even talk of
firing him. But as the report notes, that's not
so easy, is it? Not at all. You need to show
malfeasance actual wrongdoing. It's a high legal
bar, not just, you know, disagreeing with policy.
And then there are the economic claims themselves,
getting rich on tariffs. Well, first, that's
not really how tariffs work for the whole country's
wealth. And second, they haven't been in place
long enough anyway. Exactly. And then the really
standout claim, egg price is down 92 percent.
I saw that. It seemed. Wild. It is. The actual
numbers. $5 .81 at the inauguration, now $6 .23.
So up, not down dramatically. So why make a claim
that's so easily disproven? What's the strategy
there? That's the million dollar question, isn't
it? Maybe it's less about convincing everyone
and more about sort of reinforcing a narrative
for the base, regardless of facts, especially
if the underlying economic news isn't great.
And then the big promises like a trade deal with
Europe. within weeks. Highly unlikely. Trade
deals are complex. They take ages. Think NAFTA,
TPP. Negotiating those takes years, not weeks.
OK, so the economy is one area of friction. What
about the courts? Sounds like significant pushback
there, too. Oh, definitely. The Kilmore Abrego
Garcia case is a prime example. Remind us. OK,
so he was wrongly deported. The Supreme Court
actually sent the case back down. Then the district
court ordered the administration to, and this
is the word they used, facilitate his release.
And the administration's response? They refused.
Filed for an emergency stay. Wow. Which led to
this really strongly worded unanimous rejection
from the Fourth Circuit panel. Unanimous. Yeah.
And Judge Harvey Wilkinson, a Reagan appointee,
conservative judge. The report says he was clearly
frustrated. What did he say? He basically asked,
look, if you could deport someone without due
process and then just say, not our problem, what
stops you doing that to anyone, even an American
citizen? It raises really fundamental questions
about checks on power. And the cost. The report
mentioned 14 million dollars just to detain these
wrongly deported people under US control. 14
million. Taxpayer money. For essentially cleaning
up a mistake they refused to acknowledge initially.
And then there's the Supreme Court agreeing to
hear the birthright citizenship case. The executive
order. Right. And Electoral Vote News seems pretty
confident this will be a loss for the administration.
Why so confident? Well, the law seems clear.
It's Congress's authority. Overturning it would
cause chaos. Plus... It could really damage the
court's own credibility. Yeah. They predict at
least one, probably two Supreme Court defeats
for Trump. So the courts are definitely acting
as a check. It appears so, a pattern we saw in
the first term, too, perhaps indicating some
institutional resilience. OK, let's shift to
Congress, the Senate. Any signs of resistance
there, particularly among Republicans? Early
signs, yes. Senator Roger Wicker from Mississippi
is mentioned. He's usually pretty reliably partisan,
right? He is. But as chair of the Armed Services
Committee, he's apparently pushing back on troop
withdrawals, criticizing the defense secretary,
Hegseth, over that whole signal issue. Why can
he do that, do you think? Well, the report suggests
a few reasons. He's senior, very popular back
home in a deep red state, and he's not up for
reelection until 2030. Gives him some breathing
room, perhaps? Makes sense. And then there's
Senator Lisa Murkowski from Alaska. Yeah, more
of a moderate, traditional Republican. She's
quoted criticizing unlawful actions and, interestingly,
lamenting the lack of wider resistance in the
party. She said the fear of retaliation is real.
She did, which is quite a statement. And she
predicts more pushback coming, especially on
things like potential Medicaid cuts. It feels
unusual to hear that kind of open criticism from
within the party this early in a term. It does.
It raises questions about party unity down the
line. OK, what about other centers of power,
law firms? The report mentioned some initial
pressure for pro bono work. Yeah, seemed like
some initial success there for the administration.
Yeah. But the report suggests the continued demands
might be causing a backlash. How so? Well, firms
have to weigh things up right. If they start
losing associates or if other clients get nervous
about the firm being seen as too close to controversial
policies. Then it might become better business
to just say no. Exactly. The cost of complying
might start to outweigh the benefit or the perceived
avoidance of trouble. And universities. Harvard's
been getting a lot of pressure. Huge pressure.
Threats over tax -exempt status, international
student visas. Yeah. It's serious. But the analysis
suggests Harvard might have to fight back. Yeah,
the argument is they almost have no choice but
to fight. And if Harvard stands firm, it could
encourage others like Columbia, Princeton. Precisely.
A united front for major universities would be
a much bigger obstacle for the administration.
Interesting. And the media? Any surprises there?
Not huge surprises, perhaps. Despite some worries,
the report says the mainstream media is mostly
holding the line, providing critical coverage.
And the reliance on truth social kind of proves
that point. It suggests they aren't getting the
coverage they want elsewhere. Yeah. And the report
specifically highlights a very strong op -ed
by David Brooks, the conservative columnist in
the New York Times. That's the one calling for
a comprehensive national civic uprising. That's
powerful language coming from that direction.
Wow. OK. And finally, on the first hundred days
in fighting. Oh, yeah. Very public feuds. Musk
versus Navarro. House Republicans squabbling
over the budget. Vance versus McConnell. It's
all out there. Which causes problems, presumably.
Two main ones, according to the report. One,
it just looks unprofessional, chaotic. Two, public
fights often lead to leaks as different sides
try to get their narrative out. And how's all
this playing out in the polls? Approval ratings?
The picture is mixed, I guess. Trump seems solid
with Republicans, but the report says he's doing
very poorly with independents. Yeah, poor little...
The average across 10 recent polls gives us a
net disapproval of minus 16 .8. Ouch. Independence
are key. Absolutely. And for context, his current
average is about 5 .5 points underwater. That's
only a bit better than his record low at the
100 day mark in his first term, which is 8 points
underwater. So not a strong position with that
crucial group. Doesn't seem like it. The overall
take from electoral vote news, the initial sort
of shock and awe seems to be fading. The administration
is fighting too many battles, often on ground
that isn't favorable to them. Right. A challenging
start, to say the least. Seems that way. OK,
let's pivot now. There's this other section in
the report under the heading Schadenfreude. Ah,
yes. The arrest of Fred Piccolo Jr. Former DeSantis
guy worked at New College, arrested for alleged
behavior at a Banana Republic. The details are,
well, bizarre. They are quite specific and unusual.
But what the report really focuses on is the
question this raises. Which is? Why, it asks,
are so many Trumpers involved in this kind of
behavior? And it lists examples. Gates, Hegseth,
Musk, RFK Jr., Trump himself. Now, the report
does acknowledge the usual objections, right?
Media bias? Maybe we just remember these cases
more easily. It does. It addresses those counter
arguments, but it suggests they don't fully explain
it. They point to coverage of figures across
the spectrum, Weiner, Clinton, Franken, Biden,
and argue the severity or, you know, the factual
basis of the allegations against the list of
Trumpers is notable. So what's the theory they
float? It's presented very much as speculation,
a question being pondered. But the idea is...
Trumpism is about unchecked id, and sexual misconduct
is about unchecked id. And so, of course, that
Venn diagram has a lot of overlap. Unchecked
id. So impulse control, breaking norms. Something
like that seems to be the connection they're
suggesting. Again, it's framed as a question,
not a conclusion, but it's definitely thought
-provoking. It is. It makes you think about the
culture around certain movements, maybe. Perhaps.
Now, completely shifting gears, there is also
a Freud and Freud section. A much more positive
story. Yes. Jaren Duran, the Red Sox player.
Exactly. He had that great breakout season, but
this is about something deeper. His openness
in that Netflix documentary. Oh, right. The clubhouse.
He talked about his depression. He did. Very
openly. Shared an incredibly vulnerable story
from twenty twenty two. What did he share? He
talked about being in a really dark place, described
having his rifle, a bullet pulling the trigger.
Oh, my gosh. And the gun just clicked, didn't
fire. Wow. He said he saw that moment as a sign,
a wake -up call to, quote, look myself in the
mirror. That takes incredible courage to share,
especially in professional sports. Absolutely.
And his reason for sharing, he said he wanted
to help any baseball fans out there who might
be in a similar dark place. That's really powerful.
It really is. The report notes how much courage
that takes, given the often, you know, hyper
-masculine culture in baseball. Has there been
reaction? Yes, very supportive. Both the Commissioner,
Rob Manfred, and his manager, Alex Cora, praised
his openness. That's good to hear. It's such
an important conversation. It truly is. And it's
a good moment to remind everyone listening, you
included, if you or someone you know is struggling,
please reach out. The Suicide and Crisis Lifeline
is there. 247 - just call or text 9 -8 -8. 9
-8 -8. Definitely keep that number handy. Thank
you. Of course. Duran's story is just a powerful
reminder of, well, the strength and vulnerability.
So we've covered quite a range today, the political
battles of the first hundred days. The tough
terrain the administration seems to be on. It's
unsettling question about patterns of behavior.
Raised by the pickle arrest and other examples.
And then this really moving story of Jaren Duran's
resilience and openness. Yeah, quite the mix.
What stands out most to you looking back over
these pieces? Is there something that connects
them? Or do they just show different facets of
where things are right now? That's a great question
to ponder. And maybe that leads to our final
thought for you, the listener. How do these seemingly
unconnected things to say, the political struggles,
the questions about personal conduct, the story
of overcoming personal demons, maybe reflect
deeper currents. Deeper currents in society.
Or just how individuals react under pressure.
Exactly. Is there maybe a common thread here
about struggles for control, political control,
institutional control, even personal control?
Something to think about. Definitely something
to mull over. We hope this deep dive into the
latest from Electoral Vote News gave you some
valuable insights. And maybe spark some further
thinking on these important topics. Until our
next deep dive.