Welcome to the Deep Dive. Today, we're diving
headfirst into a really interesting mix of your
shared sources, all dated April 11th, 2025. That's
right. We've got a couple of reports here from
Electoral Vote News, a Bloomberg piece that sounds
pretty serious. Treasuries are trading like risky
assets and warning to Trump. Yeah, that one caught
my eye too. And also a JP Morgan analyst report,
which seems to describe a bit of an unusual atmosphere.
It does. And well, what we're aiming for in this
deep dive is to kind of pull together the threads,
connect the dots between what's happening with
Tesla, this surprising surge we're seeing in
green energy, the whole economic picture shaped
by trade wars, which seems a bit shaky, and then
these underlying political currents, maybe even
a bit of nervousness or apprehension floating
around. OK, sounds good. Let's jump right into
Tesla then, the Schadenfreude report, and yeah,
the name kind of fits. It paints a, well, a pretty
stark picture. It really does. Seems like it
boils down to a couple of key things driving
this downturn for them. Yeah, and it's interesting
how the report links the brand image with the
actual product, right? So one big factor they
point to is Elon Musk himself. Oh, really? Yeah,
his... let's say polarizing effect. It suggests
his public persona, his statements, are actually
hurting the brand for a decent chunk of potential
buyers. And at the same time, the tech itself,
which used to be so cutting edge, is now seen
as, well, maybe a bit dated. Long in the tooth,
I think was the phrase. Exactly. And that's on
top of these ongoing issues with build quality
and manufacturing defects. Right, and the Cybertruck
seems to be like exhibit A for all this, doesn't
it? It really does. I remember the hype. Over
a million pre -orders claimed. Huge numbers.
But the reality, they've delivered, what, about
46 ,000? Yeah. And they've got another 2 ,400
just sitting there unsold. That's like $200 million
in inventory. Wow. Yeah, and the report is pretty
blunt about the perception, too, calling its
look fascism in vehicular form. Oof. Yeah, I
saw that quote. That was even before some other
stuff. Right. And beyond just the looks, which,
OK, people argue about. There are these persistent
reports about mechanical problems, reliability
issues, even safety concerns being raised. It
seems like the initial buzz just didn't stick.
But here's the kicker. This is what really got
me. Tesla itself apparently doesn't want used
Cybertrucks back. Wait, really? Yeah. The report
says they won't buy them back, won't take them
as trade -ins. Why? Because they can't resell
them easily. That's incredible. For a carmaker
to say that about their own recent product. I
know. And their advice to unhappy owners, they're
suggesting they should pursue lemon lawsuits.
Wow. That speaks volumes doesn't it it suggests.
I mean a serious lack of confidence in the vehicles
Long -term value or maybe even its basic function
if they're pointing people towards lemon -loss
and you see it in the prices, right? Use cyber
trucks. The value has just plummeted. How much
are we talking down 55 % in the last year? 55.
Good grief. And it's still dropping, down 13
% in the last three months, another 6 % just
in the last month. So yeah, the reports outlook
is pretty skeptical. It certainly makes you wonder
about Tesla's whole strategy moving forward.
I mean, they were the pioneers, no doubt. Absolutely.
But the competition is catching up fast, and
this suggests, well, brand loyalty isn't guaranteed,
especially if the quality isn't there or the
tech feels old. Being first isn't everything,
you know. Okay, so shifting gears completely,
let's talk about something maybe a bit more positive.
This Freud and Freud report the opposite of schadenfreude,
I guess. Huh. Right. Joy and others' success.
Exactly. This one's about green energy, and it
paints a very different picture compared to Tesla's
troubles. It really does. And the historical
context they provide is fascinating. Apparently,
back in the 1940s, non -polluting energy, mostly
hydro back then, actually made up about 40 %
of the global total. 40 % back then? Yeah. But
this is key. Overall, energy demand was tiny
compared to now, like 150th of today's demand.
Oh, OK. That makes sense. But then, you know,
after World War II, the whole petroleum boom
happened and clean energy share just dropped
for decades. Right. But the big news now is we're
back over that 40 percent mark for the first
time in 85 years. Exactly. It feels like a really
significant turning point. And it's not just
Hydra this time, is it? No, not at all. Hydro
is still important. But the real drivers of this
recent surge are wind power and even more so
solar power. Solar is the big one. Apparently
so. The report says global solar capacity doubled
in just the last three years. Doubled in three
years. That's... That's incredibly fast growth.
It really is. And there's this forecast from
Ember Energy, their 2025 report, predicting we'll
hit 50 % non -polluting energy within the next
decade. 50%. Even with rising demand from AI
and all that. Yeah. Even accounting for that
increased demand, it really shows how much momentum
there is. There's a quote in there from an analyst,
pretty strong. Oh, yeah. Basically saying, clean
tech, not fossil fuels, is now the driving force
of economic development. and that the era of
fossil growth is coming to an end. Wow. So the
conclusion is pretty straightforward. Bad news
for big oil, but great news for the planet. Pretty
much sums it up. So it's this interesting contrast,
right? You've got this former tech darling Tesla
hitting some serious bumps, while the broader
shift to green energy seems to be accelerating
like crazy. It really suggests a major disruption
playing out. The industries that define the last
few decades might not be the ones defining the
next few. This green energy boom could reshape,
well, a lot of things. OK, let's wait into some
choppier waters now. The economy, these trade
issues, the trade war section in electoral vote
news, and that Bloomberg piece you mentioned
earlier, they definitely sound some alarm bells.
They do. And it seems the bond market is, uh...
getting jittery. How so? Well, the bond market
often acts like a canary in the coal mine, you
know, an early warning sign. Right. And the report
suggests that the recent tariffs or the talk
of them caused some major holders of U .S. debt.
Japan is mentioned specifically to start dumping
their holdings in huge quantities. OK, dumping
bonds. Let's unpack that a bit. What does that
actually mean and why is it bad? Sure. So when
big players like Japan dump bonds, They're selling
off massive amounts quickly. This pushes the
price of those bonds down. And if bond prices
go down, their yield, the return you get for
holding them, goes up. Which means when the US
government needs to borrow more money by selling
new bonds It has to offer that higher yield to
attract buyers. So it becomes more expensive
for the government to borrow money Exactly. Yeah,
which leads to bigger borrowing costs potentially
bigger deficits It basically signals a lack of
confidence in the US economy or its financial
stability And the report suggests this could
even lead to a recession or worse and that the
administration itself is worried about a depression
Yeah That fear is mentioned. And the Bloomberg
article really doubles down on this anxiety,
but from a slightly different angle. How's that?
It says U .S. treasuries, you know, historically
the safest investment on the planet. The gold
standard, yeah. They're now trading like risky
assets. Trading like risky assets. Treasuries.
That sounds fundamentally wrong. It's definitely
concerning. The article points out this weird
pattern where investors are selling off long
-term treasuries at the same time They're selling
off stocks and other things usually seen as riskier
So they're selling everything safe stuff and
risky stuff pretty much which suggests a really
deep lack of confidence a flight from US assets
generally Lauren Summers former Treasury secretary
is quoted comparing the US to an emerging market
country in the eyes of the markets right now
Ouch. That's a harsh comparison for the U .S.
And the global implications must be huge, right?
Since treasuries underpin so much of the financial
system. Absolutely. They're used as the benchmark
for pricing almost everything else used as collateral.
If their status as the ultimate safe haven is
questioned, it sends ripples everywhere. So who's
saying what about this? Well, Jim Grant wonders
if the world is rethinking its faith in U .S.
financial management. Bloomberg also mentions
German bonds may be emerging as an alternative
safe haven. And an ING analyst apparently called
treasuries a tainted product. Tainted product.
Wow. OK. Yeah. It's pretty strong language. And
how does this filter down to like regular people?
Is there an impact there? Well, the Yale Budget
Lab did an estimate mentioned in one of the reports.
They figure the combo of tariffs and inflation
could mean almost $4 ,700 less disposable income
for the average household. $4 ,700? That's a
big hit. It is. And you see little signs, right?
Like remember how egg prices went through the
roof, that kind of thing? Yeah, I remember that.
And beyond the direct costs, it's damaging relationships.
There's that quote from Canada's PM, Mark Carney.
Oh, right. What did he say? Something like, the
old relationship we had with the United States.
is over. It's clear the U .S. is no longer a
reliable partner. That's blunt. Coming from Canada.
Very blunt. It just shows how this uncertainty,
this volatility around trade policy, is really
eroding trust internationally. And the electoral
vote piece mentions some scenarios for what might
happen next with trade policy, like over the
next few months. Yeah. It outlined three possibilities.
One was basically putting tariffs back on, then
quickly suspending them again. OK. Political
theater. Maybe. Another idea floated was potential
stock market manipulation linked to tariff news.
And the third was making some minor tweaks, but
presenting them as huge victories. So basically
more uncertainty and maybe some spin. It really
points to a lack of a clear stable path forward,
which just feeds the anxiety we're seeing in
the markets. Summers warned about vicious spirals,
debt, relying on foreign buyers, losing their
confidence. It's a worrying mix. OK, let's let's
pivot again. There's this JPMorgan analyst report.
It talks about a climate of, well, fear on Wall
Street, about criticizing the administration.
Yeah, this is a really striking piece of information.
It focuses on a top analyst at JPMorgan, Michael
Semblist. Right. What happened? Apparently, he
felt he had to actually redact parts of one of
his research reports. Yeah. And even held back
some info during a client presentation. Why?
Because he's worried about repercussions. Backlash.
Worried about backlash for financial analysis.
He actually said that. Reportedly, yes. He's
quoted saying something like it was the first
time in his whole career, like 30 years, that
he had to really think about the implications
of what he was saying beyond just the market
analysis, the political blowback. Wow. Yeah.
And he apparently expressed concern that people
are being held accountable for their views in
ways that they probably shouldn't be. It hints
at a kind of chilling effect. Yeah, self -censorship.
Nadine Strossen called it anticipatory obedience
in the reform, right? Where you censor yourself
before anyone tells you to just in case. Exactly.
And the report gives other examples like companies
maybe being quiet, not wanting to rock the boat,
maybe trying to align with the administration
to avoid trouble. And banks being under scrutiny.
That Wells Fargo analyst who was maybe too blunt
and paid the price. Right. It emphasizes the
risk of backlash. Another analyst, Dick Bugga,
is quoted saying the pressure is real. and in
some ways unprecedented, even leading people
to worry about their own government. Worrying
about your own government when you're doing financial
analysis, that's quite something. It suggests
that independent thinking, critical analysis
might be getting stifled in a really important
sector. It's a very concerning potential trend,
absolutely. Okay, and finally, let's touch on
some of the pure politics mentioned in electoral
vote news. Speaker Johnson getting that Republican
budget plan through the House sounds like it
wasn't easy. No, definitely not. The vote was
super close, 216 to 214. That tells you how divided
the House Republicans are right now. And the
report mentions some interesting methods used
to flip the nay votes. Yeah, it was quite the
list. They called it a little political theater,
a promise, apparently, Johnson offered to consider
stepping down later. Seriously. That's what the
report claims. And ending one difficult meeting
with Jesus, meaning with a prayer. Wow. OK. Whatever
works, I guess. But the substance of the budget,
huge difference between the House and Senate
plans. Massive difference. The House wants, what,
$1 .5 trillion in cuts? Yeah. And the Senate's
number is like $4 billion. With a B. Trillion
versus billion. That's a big gap to bridge. Huge.
It really shows the power the Freedom Caucus
has in the House, but also the reality check
they'll face, especially with moderate Republicans
in tough districts, probably not wanting huge
cuts to popular programs. So getting a final
budget done looks... challenging. Very challenging.
It just highlights how fragile that House majority
is and how hard it is to get anything major done,
especially with all the economic stuff swirling
around. There is also a quick mention of a Supreme
Court order about a deportation. Oh, right. Kilmar
Abrego Garcia mistakenly deported. The court
ordered the White House to facilitate his return.
Seen mostly as a minimal step, but maybe a small
test of the administration following court orders.
Got it. And then just some quick election updates.
Colorado and Minnesota. Yeah. Michael Bennett
jumping into the Colorado governor race, setting
up a potential primary clash. And Ilhan Omar
deciding to stay in the House race in Minnesota,
not run for Senate, which might affect Democratic
chances there. Just little pieces moving on the
board. OK. So let's try to wrap this all up.
Bring these threads together for everyone listening.
Sounds good. We've seen, well, A tech giant,
Tesla, looking surprisingly vulnerable, right?
At the very same time, that green energy is just
taking off like way faster than maybe expected.
A real potential changing of the guard, technologically
speaking. Yeah. And then overlaying all that,
you have these deep economic anxieties. Trade
wars, bond markets acting weirdly, questioning
the safety of U .S. debt. Creating real turbulence.
Yeah. Yeah, even hitting that bedrock of treasuries
and this is all happening against a backdrop
of Tricky politics super tight budget fights
in Congress and this reported climate of well
self -censorship or fear on Wall Street It's
a complex mix lots of interconnected pressures.
So maybe the big aha moment for listeners is
just how fast things can change, like that doubling
of solar power in three years you mentioned.
That's a great example. Or maybe just how fragile
even seemingly rock -solid things like the reputation
of U .S. treasuries can be when confidence starts
to erode. Right. We covered a ton of ground here,
hopefully distilled it down, made those connections
clear without just throwing facts at people.
Yeah, trying to see the patterns and all the
noise. So maybe a final thought to leave people
with. We've talked about cars, energy, finance,
politics, all these areas in flux. What other
sectors, ones that maybe seem really stable right
now, might be quietly nearing some kind of unexpected
tipping point? And what clues should we even
be looking for? That's the big question, isn't
it? What's the next disruption? Definitely something
to think about.