WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.799 Hey, you've tuned into the deep dive and we're 00:00:02.799 --> 00:00:04.660 gonna try and make sense of this pile of news 00:00:04.660 --> 00:00:06.820 and analysis you sent over. Yeah, lots to get 00:00:06.820 --> 00:00:08.980 through. Think of this as, you know, your fast 00:00:08.980 --> 00:00:10.640 track to understanding what's really going on. 00:00:10.699 --> 00:00:13.519 We've got a lot on the docket, trade shifts, 00:00:13.859 --> 00:00:17.760 party politics, budget stuff. So let's just... 00:00:17.289 --> 00:00:20.070 Jump right in. Sounds good. You've given us a 00:00:20.070 --> 00:00:24.370 really great set of sources. We're talking tariffs, 00:00:24.750 --> 00:00:26.890 the Republican budget battles, that Medicaid 00:00:26.890 --> 00:00:30.030 poll, Trump versus the universities, what's happening 00:00:30.030 --> 00:00:32.250 inside the Democratic Party, the whole pronoun 00:00:32.250 --> 00:00:35.909 debate, a new Senate candidate, fundraising down 00:00:35.909 --> 00:00:39.570 in Georgia, Nebraska's electoral votes, and even 00:00:39.570 --> 00:00:42.530 security concerns from members of Congress. It's 00:00:42.530 --> 00:00:44.600 a lot. But it's all kind of connected. OK, let's 00:00:44.600 --> 00:00:46.320 kick off with Crate, then, because that really 00:00:46.320 --> 00:00:48.880 took a weird turn, didn't it? It sure did. Like, 00:00:48.960 --> 00:00:51.359 one minute, it looked like full steam ahead on 00:00:51.359 --> 00:00:53.039 all those tariffs, you know, the big trade war. 00:00:53.219 --> 00:00:56.020 Then, boom, Trump not only does the China tariffs, 00:00:56.100 --> 00:01:00.219 but jacks them up to, what, 125%. 125%, yeah. 00:01:00.399 --> 00:01:02.579 Massive. But then hits pause on most of the others. 00:01:02.859 --> 00:01:06.099 It's confusing. It really is a whiplash kind 00:01:06.099 --> 00:01:08.700 of moment. The sources seem to point to a couple 00:01:08.700 --> 00:01:12.159 of main pressures causing this cave, as some 00:01:12.159 --> 00:01:14.609 are. putting it. OK. The stock market tanking 00:01:14.609 --> 00:01:16.849 was, well, almost certainly a huge part of it. 00:01:16.930 --> 00:01:20.489 Right. Can't ignore that. And then you had significant 00:01:20.489 --> 00:01:23.730 pushback from Republicans, both in Congress and 00:01:23.730 --> 00:01:26.250 maybe more importantly, their big donors. Ah, 00:01:26.349 --> 00:01:28.469 the donors. Yeah. I bet they weren't happy seeing 00:01:28.469 --> 00:01:31.390 their money vanish. Probably not. Yeah. So this 00:01:31.390 --> 00:01:33.310 sudden reversal, it's not just market nerves. 00:01:33.450 --> 00:01:37.180 It sort of highlights this. basic tension in 00:01:37.180 --> 00:01:39.739 the administration, right, between the protectionist 00:01:39.739 --> 00:01:42.739 ideas and, well, the reality of global money 00:01:42.739 --> 00:01:45.299 could define their policy going forward. Yeah, 00:01:45.500 --> 00:01:47.260 you can just picture those phone calls to the 00:01:47.260 --> 00:01:50.299 White House being pretty blunt. But the big question 00:01:50.299 --> 00:01:52.659 now is, OK, what's this pause really mean? Is 00:01:52.659 --> 00:01:55.599 it just a timeout? Or are most of these tariffs, 00:01:55.920 --> 00:01:58.480 apart from China, actually off the table now? 00:01:58.620 --> 00:02:00.859 That's the key uncertainty, isn't it? And, you 00:02:00.859 --> 00:02:02.719 know, if the non -China tariffs are canceled 00:02:02.719 --> 00:02:05.000 and they got nothing back for it, well, that 00:02:05.000 --> 00:02:07.700 opens Trump right up. To criticism, yeah. Democrats 00:02:07.700 --> 00:02:10.219 will likely hammer that point. You know, where 00:02:10.219 --> 00:02:12.159 are the manufacturing jobs you promised? The 00:02:12.159 --> 00:02:15.000 source even jokes about Herd Island and Liechtenstein. 00:02:15.080 --> 00:02:18.599 But the real point is no obvious gains. Plus, 00:02:18.800 --> 00:02:20.780 you've still got expensive Chinese goods, and 00:02:20.780 --> 00:02:22.900 you've damaged relationships with everyone else. 00:02:23.319 --> 00:02:25.240 And speaking of everyone else, those trading 00:02:25.240 --> 00:02:27.960 partners reacted pretty strongly even before 00:02:27.960 --> 00:02:32.039 the pause. Oh, yeah. The EU and China slapping 00:02:32.039 --> 00:02:36.419 tariffs on, what, $150 billion of U .S. stuff? 00:02:36.860 --> 00:02:40.430 That 84 % Chinese tariff on agriculture? That's 00:02:40.430 --> 00:02:42.389 got to hurt farmers. Absolutely massive blow. 00:02:42.610 --> 00:02:44.689 And the sources point out that's not random hitting 00:02:44.689 --> 00:02:46.830 agriculture. That's aimed right at Republican 00:02:46.830 --> 00:02:48.830 senators and farm states. Real pressure point. 00:02:48.949 --> 00:02:50.889 Makes sense. Now, with the U .S. pause, maybe 00:02:50.889 --> 00:02:53.330 the EU pulls back a bit. We'll see. But China 00:02:53.330 --> 00:02:55.689 seems less likely they'll blink unless Trump 00:02:55.689 --> 00:02:57.889 gives more ground. President Xi, he doesn't have 00:02:57.889 --> 00:03:00.930 the same immediate political heat Trump does. 00:03:01.150 --> 00:03:03.169 He can probably play the long game. And the EU 00:03:03.169 --> 00:03:05.150 has another worry too, right? Not just about 00:03:05.150 --> 00:03:07.569 their stuff being tariffed. Exactly. They're 00:03:07.569 --> 00:03:09.370 worried that if Chinese goods can't get into 00:03:09.370 --> 00:03:12.169 the U .S. because of the high tariffs, China 00:03:12.169 --> 00:03:14.509 will just dump them all in Europe instead, flooding 00:03:14.509 --> 00:03:17.689 the market. Ah, right. Which would hammer European 00:03:17.689 --> 00:03:20.650 businesses. It's a big concern. Shows how interconnected 00:03:20.650 --> 00:03:23.870 everything is. One move here causes ripples way 00:03:23.870 --> 00:03:26.409 over there. That's the global economy for you. 00:03:26.490 --> 00:03:28.750 OK, so let's get into the Republican reaction. 00:03:29.030 --> 00:03:30.889 It sounds like these terrorists weren't exactly 00:03:30.889 --> 00:03:33.610 popular within the party itself. Far from it. 00:03:33.909 --> 00:03:35.689 The sources are pretty clear. Republican donors 00:03:35.689 --> 00:03:40.050 were not pleased. They wanted tax cuts, less 00:03:40.050 --> 00:03:42.349 regulation. Not market chaos. Definitely not 00:03:42.349 --> 00:03:44.810 market chaos that shaves billions off their net 00:03:44.810 --> 00:03:47.729 worth. The stock drop reportedly cost some of 00:03:47.729 --> 00:03:49.789 these guys tens of billions. You can be sure 00:03:49.789 --> 00:03:51.909 they let Trump know. No kidding. And it wasn't 00:03:51.909 --> 00:03:54.129 just the money people, right? Senators were feeling 00:03:54.129 --> 00:03:56.469 it too. Yeah, especially those up for re -election. 00:03:56.770 --> 00:03:58.849 Worried about the economy slowing down, getting 00:03:58.849 --> 00:04:01.789 angry calls from constituents, farmers, people 00:04:01.789 --> 00:04:04.270 watching their 401k shrink. That makes sense. 00:04:04.430 --> 00:04:06.830 And we get some good examples. Senator Tillis 00:04:06.830 --> 00:04:09.509 in North Carolina. Worried about manufacturing 00:04:09.509 --> 00:04:12.030 jobs needing Chinese materials. Right. Senator 00:04:12.030 --> 00:04:14.349 Lankford talking about an Oklahoma company that 00:04:14.349 --> 00:04:17.089 moved from China to Vietnam only to get hit with 00:04:17.089 --> 00:04:21.209 tariffs there. Ouch. Can't win. And Senator Kennedy 00:04:21.209 --> 00:04:24.730 just saying, you know, it's not fun. I don't 00:04:24.730 --> 00:04:27.269 like it. I like it when the market goes up. Pretty 00:04:27.269 --> 00:04:30.470 direct. It shows the real world impact. Even 00:04:30.470 --> 00:04:32.790 some conservative media figures were speaking 00:04:32.790 --> 00:04:36.220 out. Rogan, Portnoy. Shapiro. Yeah, that's interesting 00:04:36.220 --> 00:04:39.439 too. Rogan calling Canada tariffs stupid. Portnoy 00:04:39.439 --> 00:04:41.560 talking about his own financial hits. Shapiro 00:04:41.560 --> 00:04:43.860 questioning the whole economic logic behind tariffs 00:04:43.860 --> 00:04:46.920 and reshoring. That kind of public dissent from 00:04:46.920 --> 00:04:49.920 usually friendly voices, that probably adds pressure 00:04:49.920 --> 00:04:52.040 too. It definitely can. It sort of validates 00:04:52.040 --> 00:04:54.420 the concerns and makes it harder for the administration 00:04:54.420 --> 00:04:56.560 to just brush them off. So, okay, what about 00:04:56.560 --> 00:04:58.720 the Democrats? They must have seen an opening 00:04:58.720 --> 00:05:01.110 here. Well, it's a bit complicated. You've got 00:05:01.110 --> 00:05:05.329 Democrats from, say, the Rust Belt, who've historically 00:05:05.329 --> 00:05:08.089 been a bit more open to tariffs, theoretically, 00:05:08.230 --> 00:05:10.649 to protect jobs. But even they were critical 00:05:10.649 --> 00:05:12.750 of Trump's whole approach, how erratic it was. 00:05:13.449 --> 00:05:15.730 The main line from Democrats was blasting the 00:05:15.730 --> 00:05:19.430 extremism, the damage to alliances. The Federman's 00:05:19.430 --> 00:05:22.029 line about punching our allies in the mouth kind 00:05:22.029 --> 00:05:25.769 of sums it up. So their strategy now might be 00:05:25.769 --> 00:05:29.040 to hit the pause itself. Like, OK, you pause, 00:05:29.100 --> 00:05:31.459 but where are the jobs? This didn't fix anything. 00:05:31.620 --> 00:05:33.720 That seems very likely. Yeah. It lets them say, 00:05:34.079 --> 00:05:36.879 see, his way doesn't work. We need a smarter 00:05:36.879 --> 00:05:40.399 approach. Maybe pushing targeted tariffs, government 00:05:40.399 --> 00:05:43.259 support for industries, like the Chips Act. And 00:05:43.259 --> 00:05:46.069 Trump himself. Still unpredictable mentioning 00:05:46.069 --> 00:05:48.290 potential pharma tariffs and that quote about 00:05:48.290 --> 00:05:50.769 him not giving a flak anymore Yeah, that sent 00:05:50.769 --> 00:05:52.829 shivers through the markets that kind of uncertainty 00:05:52.829 --> 00:05:55.129 is poison for business and investors companies 00:05:55.129 --> 00:05:57.089 like Apple must be in a really tight spot with 00:05:57.089 --> 00:06:00.410 those 125 percent China tariffs still on absolutely 00:06:00.569 --> 00:06:02.730 moving that kind of massive production out of 00:06:02.730 --> 00:06:05.209 China. It's just not feasible quickly. And the 00:06:05.209 --> 00:06:07.149 cost would be astronomical, probably pass straight 00:06:07.149 --> 00:06:09.269 to consumers. And Walmart too, right? They buy 00:06:09.269 --> 00:06:11.730 so much stuff made in China, prices would have 00:06:11.730 --> 00:06:13.850 to go up. Definitely. And the sources mentioned 00:06:13.850 --> 00:06:16.930 this dynamic between Trump and Xi. Xi can afford 00:06:16.930 --> 00:06:19.189 to wait, doesn't have the same pressures. Could 00:06:19.189 --> 00:06:22.370 lead to a kind of fake deal. It could. Something 00:06:22.370 --> 00:06:24.110 Trump can call a win, but doesn't really change 00:06:24.110 --> 00:06:27.089 the fundamentals. And the markets. Total roller 00:06:27.089 --> 00:06:31.230 coaster. That 15 % drop. than the recovery. Yeah, 00:06:31.370 --> 00:06:33.509 shows how sensitive things are. And that turmoil 00:06:33.509 --> 00:06:35.509 in the bond market, the 10 -year treasury yield 00:06:35.509 --> 00:06:38.110 going up, that's nervousness. A sign people are 00:06:38.110 --> 00:06:40.750 getting jumpy about the economy. Exactly. When 00:06:40.750 --> 00:06:42.709 safe havens like treasuries get sold off, it 00:06:42.709 --> 00:06:45.810 means rising uncertainty. And seeing German bonds 00:06:45.810 --> 00:06:49.009 and gold drop too, it's just general market anxiety. 00:06:49.360 --> 00:06:52.740 OK, last piece on this. How are regular folks 00:06:52.740 --> 00:06:55.040 seeing it? Well, that Reuters Cipso's poll is 00:06:55.040 --> 00:06:58.379 telling. 73 % expect prices to go up in the next 00:06:58.379 --> 00:07:01.819 six months. Wow, that's high. Yeah. They're specifically 00:07:01.819 --> 00:07:04.339 worried about electronics, cars, appliances, 00:07:04.699 --> 00:07:07.279 even groceries, like fresh produce. And when 00:07:07.279 --> 00:07:09.379 people expect inflation, there's that word again, 00:07:09.660 --> 00:07:11.560 they often start tightening their belts. Which 00:07:11.560 --> 00:07:13.860 slows down spending, slows down the whole economy. 00:07:14.199 --> 00:07:17.259 Precisely. Big potential impact there. OK, let's 00:07:17.259 --> 00:07:20.480 shift gears. The Republican budget. It sounds 00:07:20.480 --> 00:07:22.519 like they hit a wall in the House. That's right. 00:07:22.860 --> 00:07:25.680 The Senate managed to pass their version, a budget 00:07:25.680 --> 00:07:28.459 resolution, but getting it through the House. 00:07:29.259 --> 00:07:33.129 Big problem. Not enough votes. Why not? The Freedom 00:07:33.129 --> 00:07:35.550 Caucus, basically. The really conservative group. 00:07:35.649 --> 00:07:38.269 They want much, much deeper spending cuts than 00:07:38.269 --> 00:07:40.930 the Senate bill has. So Speaker Johnson's stuck 00:07:40.930 --> 00:07:43.009 in the middle. Especially since Trump probably 00:07:43.009 --> 00:07:46.509 wants a win after the tariff adjustment. Exactly. 00:07:46.709 --> 00:07:48.269 You'd think Trump leaning on them would work, 00:07:48.449 --> 00:07:50.410 but nope. They actually canceled the House vote 00:07:50.410 --> 00:07:53.350 despite his lobbying. Really? Any idea how many 00:07:53.350 --> 00:07:55.790 Republicans were against it? Reports conflict. 00:07:56.250 --> 00:07:59.250 Some say just a few. Others say maybe 30 or more. 00:07:59.449 --> 00:08:01.209 The fact Johnson's now talking about the House 00:08:01.209 --> 00:08:03.009 writing its own bill suggests the opposition 00:08:03.009 --> 00:08:05.149 was pretty serious. And even if the House does 00:08:05.149 --> 00:08:06.990 pass something, it sounds like the Senate would 00:08:06.990 --> 00:08:10.009 just reject it anyway. Because of internal GOP 00:08:10.009 --> 00:08:12.670 fights. That seems very likely. Especially this 00:08:12.670 --> 00:08:14.449 fight over the salt cap, the state and local 00:08:14.449 --> 00:08:17.629 tax deduction. Ah, yeah. That's always divisive. 00:08:17.949 --> 00:08:21.420 Hugely. It mainly hits higher tax, often bluer 00:08:21.420 --> 00:08:23.839 states, but some Republicans want to repeal it. 00:08:24.180 --> 00:08:26.100 So you've got these fundamental disagreements. 00:08:26.379 --> 00:08:28.379 It probably means deadlock if they even get to 00:08:28.379 --> 00:08:30.439 a conference committee to try and merge the bills. 00:08:31.259 --> 00:08:33.700 Not looking good for a smooth budget process 00:08:33.700 --> 00:08:36.419 there. Not at all. The split between deficit 00:08:36.419 --> 00:08:38.899 hawks and tax cutters in the party just makes 00:08:38.899 --> 00:08:41.059 it incredibly hard to get everyone on the same 00:08:41.059 --> 00:08:43.519 page. OK, let's talk about that Medicaid poll. 00:08:43.919 --> 00:08:47.559 We saw Elon Musk suggesting cuts to save money. 00:08:47.700 --> 00:08:50.039 Right. Framing it as a way to trim federal spending. 00:08:50.580 --> 00:08:53.500 But this Republican pollster, Bob Ward, found 00:08:53.500 --> 00:08:56.860 that's not exactly popular. Not with swing voters, 00:08:57.059 --> 00:08:59.840 no. His poll showed two thirds of them are actually 00:08:59.840 --> 00:09:02.700 against cutting Medicaid. Interesting. And Ward's 00:09:02.700 --> 00:09:04.620 take is pretty sharp. He says there's just no 00:09:04.620 --> 00:09:07.039 real public appetite for cutting Medicaid to 00:09:07.039 --> 00:09:09.840 pay for more tax cuts. And people forget Medicaid 00:09:09.840 --> 00:09:12.460 helps a lot of different families, including, 00:09:12.460 --> 00:09:15.139 importantly, many poor white rural Republicans. 00:09:16.059 --> 00:09:18.279 Maybe a group Musk and others underestimate the 00:09:18.279 --> 00:09:20.460 reliance of. And the idea of cutting Medicaid 00:09:20.460 --> 00:09:23.240 to fund billionaire tax cuts that tested really 00:09:23.240 --> 00:09:25.809 badly in the poll. Yeah, that potential Democratic 00:09:25.809 --> 00:09:29.149 attack line landed with a thud. Huge negative 00:09:29.149 --> 00:09:31.769 reaction. It just shows the political risk of 00:09:31.769 --> 00:09:34.029 going after these big safety net programs. People 00:09:34.029 --> 00:09:36.370 don't want health care messed with. Generally, 00:09:36.529 --> 00:09:38.789 no. You can talk about waste and fraud, sure. 00:09:38.929 --> 00:09:41.950 But cutting access, that's a tough sell. Big 00:09:41.950 --> 00:09:45.009 hurdle for any budget trying deep Medicaid cuts. 00:09:45.429 --> 00:09:47.549 OK, switching to Trump and the universities. 00:09:47.899 --> 00:09:50.360 This feels like an ongoing battle, him versus 00:09:50.360 --> 00:09:52.919 the woke elites, as he calls them. Absolutely. 00:09:53.000 --> 00:09:55.320 And he's using federal money as his weapon here, 00:09:55.419 --> 00:09:57.080 isn't he? Even though he's an Ivy League grad 00:09:57.080 --> 00:09:59.360 himself. Right, the irony. We saw him suspend 00:09:59.360 --> 00:10:02.120 grants before Princeton Columbia frees Brown's 00:10:02.120 --> 00:10:04.200 funding. And the legality of that was already 00:10:04.200 --> 00:10:06.460 questionable. Put those universities in a bind. 00:10:06.679 --> 00:10:09.779 And now he's gone further. Cornell and Northwestern 00:10:09.779 --> 00:10:12.980 funding frozen. Yep. unilaterally frozen, a billion 00:10:12.980 --> 00:10:15.600 dollars for Cornell, almost 800 million dollars 00:10:15.600 --> 00:10:18.720 for Northwestern, and apparently no clear reason 00:10:18.720 --> 00:10:22.220 given. Just frozen. Wow. Those are huge numbers. 00:10:22.600 --> 00:10:25.279 Massive amounts. And it's funny, he attacks these 00:10:25.279 --> 00:10:27.860 academic elites, but his own cabinet is usually 00:10:27.860 --> 00:10:32.080 full of, well, rich elites. True. Does his base 00:10:32.080 --> 00:10:34.679 really buy the distinction? Maybe not as much 00:10:34.679 --> 00:10:38.100 as he thinks, but the immediate effect is real 00:10:38.100 --> 00:10:40.330 pressure on these universities. Could they sue 00:10:40.330 --> 00:10:43.129 him later after he's out of office? It's definitely 00:10:43.129 --> 00:10:45.870 possible. Civil suits arguing the freezes were 00:10:45.870 --> 00:10:48.450 illegal, politically motivated. Presidential 00:10:48.450 --> 00:10:50.669 immunity isn't absolute, especially for civil 00:10:50.669 --> 00:10:53.590 cases about actions maybe outside official duties. 00:10:53.809 --> 00:10:55.210 Something they'll be thinking about, I'm sure. 00:10:55.490 --> 00:10:58.490 No doubt. In the meantime, it hurts research, 00:10:59.029 --> 00:11:02.129 faculty, students. Harvard maybe can handle it 00:11:02.129 --> 00:11:04.429 with their huge endowment. But Penn has that 00:11:04.429 --> 00:11:06.190 weird leverage, right? They could revoke his 00:11:06.190 --> 00:11:08.690 degree. Yeah, that adds a unique sort of symbolic 00:11:08.690 --> 00:11:11.470 twist to it all. Fascinating dynamic. OK, let's 00:11:11.470 --> 00:11:13.590 pivot to the Democrats. Sounds like some internal 00:11:13.590 --> 00:11:16.049 rumbling there. A generational thing. Yeah, that's 00:11:16.049 --> 00:11:18.169 a really key dynamic right now. You've got this 00:11:18.169 --> 00:11:21.210 tension. The older, more established Democrats 00:11:21.210 --> 00:11:24.570 versus a younger generation that wants, well, 00:11:24.909 --> 00:11:27.470 more fight. More aggressive opposition. Exactly. 00:11:27.649 --> 00:11:29.590 Like that old quote, the duty of the opposition 00:11:29.590 --> 00:11:32.600 is to oppose. They feel the older guard is maybe 00:11:32.600 --> 00:11:35.039 too complacent, not urgent enough. And they're 00:11:35.039 --> 00:11:37.399 willing to run against incumbents in primaries, 00:11:37.639 --> 00:11:40.919 like AOC did. Precisely. The source's name names 00:11:40.919 --> 00:11:45.019 Jake Rakoff, eyeing Brad Shermingseed, Katabouka's 00:11:45.019 --> 00:11:47.320 lay -challenging Jan Schakowsky. Pelosi might 00:11:47.320 --> 00:11:49.679 get a challenger. Chatra Barty, possibly, yeah. 00:11:50.279 --> 00:11:53.220 And George Hornetto taking on Andre Carson. The 00:11:53.220 --> 00:11:55.120 vibe from these challengers is often that the 00:11:55.120 --> 00:11:59.100 incumbents are, you know, scared and feeble, 00:11:59.240 --> 00:12:01.200 not using every tool they have. It's not just 00:12:01.200 --> 00:12:04.879 policy, it's style. And maybe age. Seems to be 00:12:04.879 --> 00:12:07.500 part of it. And Rebecca Katz, the consultant, 00:12:07.940 --> 00:12:09.679 thinks we'll see more challenges, maybe more 00:12:09.679 --> 00:12:11.539 retirements, because base is just angry. You 00:12:11.539 --> 00:12:13.700 see it in protests, at town halls. Calls for 00:12:13.700 --> 00:12:15.759 Schimmer to step aside, even. For someone younger, 00:12:15.899 --> 00:12:18.179 like Murphy or Booker. Those whispers are definitely 00:12:18.179 --> 00:12:20.320 out there. And you see generational shifts happening 00:12:20.320 --> 00:12:22.279 in Senate races, too. Potentially Michigan, New 00:12:22.279 --> 00:12:24.240 Hampshire. So it's really a fight for the party 00:12:24.240 --> 00:12:27.120 soul. Reform versus rebuild? That sums it up 00:12:27.120 --> 00:12:30.460 pretty well. A major internal battle over direction 00:12:30.460 --> 00:12:32.320 and identity for the Democrats looking forward. 00:12:32.440 --> 00:12:34.919 Now this pronoun wars thing. Part of the broader 00:12:34.919 --> 00:12:37.980 culture war. DEI attacks. Seems like it, yeah. 00:12:38.740 --> 00:12:41.240 And Trump's press secretary, Caroline Leavitt, 00:12:41.399 --> 00:12:43.340 is really leading the charge on this specific 00:12:43.340 --> 00:12:46.019 front. Against pronouns? How does that even work? 00:12:46.340 --> 00:12:49.419 Her policy is reportedly not responding to reporters 00:12:49.419 --> 00:12:52.000 if they have pronouns in their email bio. Yeah. 00:12:52.139 --> 00:12:55.220 Which is ironic given I is a pronoun she uses 00:12:55.220 --> 00:12:57.919 in the statement. And she's not the only one. 00:12:58.120 --> 00:13:01.320 Nope. Katie Miller apparently has a similar policy 00:13:01.320 --> 00:13:04.220 linking pronoun use to ignoring scientific realities. 00:13:04.759 --> 00:13:07.460 And Steve Chung just dismissed the New York Times 00:13:07.460 --> 00:13:09.320 for focusing on it. Seems like a coordinated 00:13:09.320 --> 00:13:11.600 push. And that anecdote about the reporter Matt 00:13:11.600 --> 00:13:13.899 Berg. Right. He added pronouns to his signature, 00:13:14.240 --> 00:13:16.759 asked Chung a question, and got back basically 00:13:16.759 --> 00:13:19.120 the same canned response Chung had used publicly. 00:13:19.620 --> 00:13:22.500 Suggests it's a pretty rigid maybe prescripted 00:13:22.500 --> 00:13:25.139 stance. And Trump banned federal workers from 00:13:25.139 --> 00:13:27.360 using them in official email. That's the report. 00:13:27.639 --> 00:13:30.120 Yeah. Banning them in email signatures on government 00:13:30.120 --> 00:13:33.279 time really solidifies the administration's position. 00:13:33.600 --> 00:13:36.159 OK. North Carolina Senate race. Democrats are 00:13:36.159 --> 00:13:38.279 waiting on Roy Cooper, the governor, right, to 00:13:38.279 --> 00:13:40.399 see if he runs against Tillis. Still waiting. 00:13:40.600 --> 00:13:42.639 Yeah. Big question mark there. But someone else 00:13:42.639 --> 00:13:45.679 jumped in. Yes. Wiley Nickel, former congressman, 00:13:45.860 --> 00:13:47.980 lost his seat after redistricting. Now he's running 00:13:47.980 --> 00:13:50.360 for Senate. Does that change Cooper's calculation? 00:13:50.580 --> 00:13:53.840 Maybe. Hard to say they could nudge Cooper one 00:13:53.840 --> 00:13:55.960 way or the other or maybe nickel thinks Cooper 00:13:55.960 --> 00:14:00.080 isn't running. How's nickels launch been? Not 00:14:00.080 --> 00:14:02.799 great based on reports his announcement video 00:14:02.799 --> 00:14:06.860 was described as jumpy Unfocused not ideal and 00:14:06.860 --> 00:14:09.080 his main message seems to be just blaming Tillis 00:14:09.080 --> 00:14:11.399 for everything Trump does It does make you wonder 00:14:11.399 --> 00:14:14.340 why jump in now unless you think Cooper's aiming 00:14:14.340 --> 00:14:18.690 higher Like maybe president in 2028 Interesting 00:14:18.690 --> 00:14:21.809 thought. Maybe Nicholl sees an opening if Coopy 00:14:21.809 --> 00:14:23.970 passes on the Senate. It's plausible. Gives him 00:14:23.970 --> 00:14:25.929 a head start if Cooper decides against it for 00:14:25.929 --> 00:14:27.990 whatever reason. OK, let's head south to Georgia. 00:14:28.370 --> 00:14:30.990 Senator Ossoff's re -election in 2026. That's 00:14:30.990 --> 00:14:33.389 a big one for Democrats. Huge concern, yeah. 00:14:33.850 --> 00:14:35.909 Especially because Senator Warnock won't be on 00:14:35.909 --> 00:14:37.769 the ballot with him this time, which likely helped 00:14:37.769 --> 00:14:40.190 turn out last time. Right. And the Republicans 00:14:40.190 --> 00:14:42.730 might field a strong challenger, Kemp. Governor 00:14:42.730 --> 00:14:46.259 Kemp is definitely a possibility. Plus. Uncertainty 00:14:46.259 --> 00:14:50.519 about Lucy Bath's plans for governor. It's a 00:14:50.519 --> 00:14:55.820 complex picture, but Asaf just put up some monster 00:14:55.820 --> 00:14:58.899 fundraising numbers. How much? $11 million in 00:14:58.899 --> 00:15:01.620 the first quarter of 2025. That's massive for 00:15:01.620 --> 00:15:03.600 this point in the cycle. Wow. Where is it coming 00:15:03.600 --> 00:15:06.639 from? Lots of small donors, apparently. Average 00:15:06.639 --> 00:15:10.460 donation, just $32. Huge number of donors overall, 00:15:10.639 --> 00:15:13.720 like 260 ,000, and many of them first timers. 00:15:13.879 --> 00:15:16.759 Spread out geographically, too. Shows real grassroots 00:15:16.759 --> 00:15:19.299 energy. And that kind of money early on, it scares 00:15:19.299 --> 00:15:21.440 people off. It can definitely act as a deterrent. 00:15:21.559 --> 00:15:23.480 Makes potential challengers. Even big names like 00:15:23.480 --> 00:15:26.279 Kemp think twice. The sources mention Marjorie 00:15:26.279 --> 00:15:28.399 Taylor Greene, too, though her winning statewide 00:15:28.399 --> 00:15:31.720 in Georgia is, well, a question. Yeah. But yeah, 00:15:31.740 --> 00:15:34.039 $11 million sends a message. OK, Nebraska. They're 00:15:34.039 --> 00:15:36.240 a weird electoral vote system. Republicans try 00:15:36.240 --> 00:15:37.639 to change it again. Yeah, Nebraska and Maine 00:15:37.639 --> 00:15:39.700 are the only states that split electoral votes 00:15:39.700 --> 00:15:41.980 by congressional district. Yeah. And EO2, the 00:15:41.980 --> 00:15:44.220 Omaha district. often goes Democratic for president. 00:15:44.460 --> 00:15:46.299 So Republicans won in winner -take -all to grab 00:15:46.299 --> 00:15:48.440 that extra electoral vote. That was the goal. 00:15:49.240 --> 00:15:51.980 Give their nominee all of Nebraska's votes, netting 00:15:51.980 --> 00:15:53.940 them potentially one more than they usually get. 00:15:54.059 --> 00:15:58.159 But it failed. Why? A few reasons. One, if Nebraska 00:15:58.159 --> 00:16:00.799 did it, Maine would probably do it too, canceling 00:16:00.799 --> 00:16:04.389 out the GOP game nationally. Ah, okay. Net zero. 00:16:04.610 --> 00:16:08.029 Pretty much. Two, because NEO2 is competitive, 00:16:08.570 --> 00:16:10.509 presidential candidates actually visit Nebraska 00:16:10.509 --> 00:16:12.830 now. They wouldn't under -win or take all. Local 00:16:12.830 --> 00:16:15.629 appeal there. Right. And then technically, the 00:16:15.629 --> 00:16:18.370 Democrats filibustered it in the Unicameral legislature. 00:16:18.870 --> 00:16:22.009 And crucially, two Republicans broke ranks. So 00:16:22.009 --> 00:16:24.289 the GOP couldn't get the supermajority needed 00:16:24.289 --> 00:16:26.250 to stop the filibuster. Who are the Republicans? 00:16:26.350 --> 00:16:28.929 Why'd they break ranks? Merva Rapey and Dave 00:16:28.929 --> 00:16:31.639 Werdikemper. Sounds like local pressure, maybe 00:16:31.639 --> 00:16:33.860 that lack of a national gain for the party if 00:16:33.860 --> 00:16:36.120 Maine followed suit. It just wasn't appealing 00:16:36.120 --> 00:16:37.740 enough for them to force it through. And the 00:16:37.740 --> 00:16:40.419 GOP just can't seem to overcome that filibuster 00:16:40.419 --> 00:16:42.980 hurdle there. Nope. They've tried for years, 00:16:43.399 --> 00:16:45.460 but getting that supermajority consistently in 00:16:45.460 --> 00:16:48.039 Nebraska's single house system has proven really 00:16:48.039 --> 00:16:51.000 tough. Okay, last item. This report about members 00:16:51.000 --> 00:16:53.960 of Congress and Venmo. Seriously. Yeah, a little 00:16:53.960 --> 00:16:57.379 startling. Apparently a notice intern. Just, 00:16:57.379 --> 00:17:00.259 you know, looked around on Venmo and easily found 00:17:00.259 --> 00:17:03.220 dozens of members of Congress, cabinet secretaries, 00:17:03.620 --> 00:17:05.759 advisors. Just out there in public. Deemed so. 00:17:06.059 --> 00:17:09.519 And the transactions sometimes revealed things. 00:17:09.900 --> 00:17:12.039 Like Representative Womack apparently paying 00:17:12.039 --> 00:17:14.880 gambling debts. Representative Kegans mentioning 00:17:14.880 --> 00:17:17.920 details about her housekeeper. Yikes. That's 00:17:17.920 --> 00:17:21.059 not great security. No. Beyond just embarrassment, 00:17:21.480 --> 00:17:24.880 it exposes them. Potential for blackmail, spearfishing 00:17:24.880 --> 00:17:29.339 attacks. reveals connections to lobbyists, reporters, 00:17:29.599 --> 00:17:31.579 maybe? Right. Sensitive stuff potentially just 00:17:31.579 --> 00:17:33.980 visible. Exactly. Which leads to that final, 00:17:34.259 --> 00:17:35.940 slightly uncomfortable question the source raises, 00:17:36.180 --> 00:17:38.440 if they can't manage basic digital security for 00:17:38.440 --> 00:17:40.700 themselves. How can they handle national security? 00:17:40.940 --> 00:17:43.240 Ruff. Gives you pause, doesn't it? It certainly 00:17:43.240 --> 00:17:45.740 does. Well, that's a lot to chew on. So wrapping 00:17:45.740 --> 00:17:48.519 this deep dive up, we've gone from global trade 00:17:48.519 --> 00:17:51.019 fights down to individual Venmo accounts. Yeah, 00:17:51.240 --> 00:17:53.380 quite the range. We've looked at the twists and 00:17:53.380 --> 00:17:55.240 tariffs, the budget battles, how people feel 00:17:55.240 --> 00:17:58.339 about Medicaid, Trump's university clashes, the 00:17:58.339 --> 00:18:00.900 Democrats' internal shifts, culture war stuff, 00:18:01.220 --> 00:18:05.180 specific races, electoral mechanics, even cybersecurity. 00:18:05.849 --> 00:18:08.490 I hope it's brought some clarity to the noise. 00:18:08.490 --> 00:18:11.109 Hopefully. As you think about all this, the trade 00:18:11.109 --> 00:18:13.630 volatility, the budget mess, the public opinion 00:18:13.630 --> 00:18:16.730 shifts, the party infighting, the security lapses, 00:18:17.009 --> 00:18:18.750 it kind of leaves you with a final thought, doesn't 00:18:18.750 --> 00:18:22.029 it? Which is. Well, with all these layers of 00:18:22.029 --> 00:18:24.430 conflict and instability playing out, what are 00:18:24.430 --> 00:18:27.250 the really big long -term consequences for actually 00:18:27.250 --> 00:18:30.109 governing for the next elections? What underlying 00:18:30.109 --> 00:18:32.109 trends are these scattered stories pointing to 00:18:32.109 --> 00:18:35.529 about where American politics is heading? Something 00:18:35.529 --> 00:18:37.450 to definitely keep thinking about. Absolutely. 00:18:37.730 --> 00:18:38.430 Worth mulling over.