WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.359 You ever get that feeling, just overwhelmed with 00:00:02.359 --> 00:00:04.219 news and headlines, and you just want someone 00:00:04.219 --> 00:00:06.620 to cut to the chase and explain what's actually 00:00:06.620 --> 00:00:09.080 important? Yeah, totally. Well, that's what we're 00:00:09.080 --> 00:00:11.080 doing today. This is the deep dive. It's your 00:00:11.080 --> 00:00:13.300 shortcut to understanding what happened today 00:00:13.300 --> 00:00:16.300 and why it matters. We've got a whole stack of 00:00:16.300 --> 00:00:19.940 news and analysis from today, April 9th, 2025. 00:00:20.730 --> 00:00:23.089 And we're going to find the signal in all the 00:00:23.089 --> 00:00:25.570 noise. Absolutely. I think it's a really interesting 00:00:25.570 --> 00:00:27.870 mix of things today from the start of an actual 00:00:27.870 --> 00:00:32.009 trade war to some, you know, legal rulings and 00:00:32.009 --> 00:00:35.090 immigration and tax policies, even the early 00:00:35.090 --> 00:00:38.109 jockeying for position for 2026. So let's dive 00:00:38.109 --> 00:00:41.340 right in. And the big news today, I mean, front 00:00:41.340 --> 00:00:43.960 and center, is this trade war has officially 00:00:43.960 --> 00:00:47.439 started. It's not just threats anymore. And the 00:00:47.439 --> 00:00:50.679 markets definitely reacted. The Dow dropped 320 00:00:50.679 --> 00:00:54.920 points, the S &P 500 down almost 80. Nasdaq took 00:00:54.920 --> 00:00:59.460 the biggest hit down 335. Wow. Yeah, that's a 00:00:59.460 --> 00:01:01.399 lot. It seems like Wall Street was hoping that, 00:01:01.399 --> 00:01:04.079 you know, someone would blink, but nobody did. 00:01:04.319 --> 00:01:07.969 It seems that way. So the tariffs. that everyone's 00:01:07.969 --> 00:01:10.569 been talking about are now real. But then on 00:01:10.569 --> 00:01:13.109 top of that, President Trump announced additional 00:01:13.109 --> 00:01:16.569 tariffs, specifically targeting China. It's incredible. 00:01:16.810 --> 00:01:18.989 If you put it all together, it's estimated to 00:01:18.989 --> 00:01:23.510 be a 104 % tariff on goods coming in from China. 00:01:23.769 --> 00:01:26.379 Wow. I even saw one of the authors joking that, 00:01:26.379 --> 00:01:27.599 you know, when they were doing the calculation, 00:01:27.739 --> 00:01:29.780 it felt like it must be a typo. It just seems 00:01:29.780 --> 00:01:32.480 like such an absurdly high number. So, you know, 00:01:32.599 --> 00:01:35.299 this is really signaling potentially a decoupling 00:01:35.299 --> 00:01:39.099 of the two economies. A huge shift from past 00:01:39.099 --> 00:01:41.560 administration's approach, which has been managed 00:01:41.560 --> 00:01:44.349 trade. I mean, it's almost impossible to wrap 00:01:44.349 --> 00:01:45.909 your head around a hundred and four percent. 00:01:46.189 --> 00:01:47.909 Yeah. Yeah. You really have to ask, what's the 00:01:47.909 --> 00:01:49.870 end game here? It's a big question. And it's 00:01:49.870 --> 00:01:51.390 a question a lot of people are asking. You know, 00:01:51.430 --> 00:01:54.150 I read that even Republican senators are reportedly 00:01:54.150 --> 00:01:56.750 trying to get some clarity on that. And of course, 00:01:56.829 --> 00:01:58.870 it's not just a domestic issue. It affects the 00:01:58.870 --> 00:02:01.370 entire world. Other countries are apparently 00:02:01.370 --> 00:02:04.269 finding it extremely difficult to even initiate 00:02:04.269 --> 00:02:07.349 preliminary talks with the administration so 00:02:07.349 --> 00:02:10.389 that. lack of a clear strategy and the difficulty 00:02:10.389 --> 00:02:13.669 in even starting a conversation points to, you 00:02:13.669 --> 00:02:16.169 know, a lot of uncertainty going forward. You 00:02:16.169 --> 00:02:17.909 really have to wonder what are some potential 00:02:17.909 --> 00:02:20.430 unintended consequences we might see down the 00:02:20.430 --> 00:02:23.110 line. Oh, yeah. Lots to think about there. OK. 00:02:23.430 --> 00:02:25.669 So moving on next week, the president is scheduled 00:02:25.669 --> 00:02:28.370 to meet with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Maloney. 00:02:28.669 --> 00:02:31.219 Oh, right. Apparently, the hope is that she can 00:02:31.219 --> 00:02:33.539 act as some kind of intermediary with the European 00:02:33.539 --> 00:02:35.900 Union. I see. And the author just throws in this 00:02:35.900 --> 00:02:38.340 dry little comment, presumably because she speaks 00:02:38.340 --> 00:02:41.680 fluent fascist. So there's definitely some skepticism 00:02:41.680 --> 00:02:44.759 around finding a quick resolution to this trade 00:02:44.759 --> 00:02:47.719 war. Yeah, I can understand why. All right. Let's 00:02:47.719 --> 00:02:49.939 turn to some legal news. The Trump administration 00:02:49.939 --> 00:02:52.520 had, I guess you could call it a mixed bag of 00:02:52.520 --> 00:02:54.939 outcomes in the courts today. OK. Had a surprising 00:02:54.939 --> 00:02:57.020 result in a lawsuit brought by the Associated 00:02:57.020 --> 00:03:00.990 Press. So if you remember, the AP had their access 00:03:00.990 --> 00:03:03.930 restricted to White House press events. And the 00:03:03.930 --> 00:03:06.389 reason they were given is that they refused to 00:03:06.389 --> 00:03:09.969 refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. 00:03:10.229 --> 00:03:12.289 I remember that. It was just incredible. I mean, 00:03:12.330 --> 00:03:14.389 can you believe that? It was unbelievable. But 00:03:14.389 --> 00:03:17.430 even more unbelievable is that the judge who 00:03:17.430 --> 00:03:21.530 ruled in favor of the AP is Judge Trevor McFadden. 00:03:21.750 --> 00:03:25.110 And this judge has been described as one of the 00:03:25.110 --> 00:03:28.610 trumpiest judges in the land. Oh, wow. Interesting. 00:03:28.810 --> 00:03:31.069 And his reasoning was pretty clear cut. He quoted 00:03:31.069 --> 00:03:34.849 the First Amendment saying that, let's see, if 00:03:34.849 --> 00:03:37.189 the government opens its doors to some journalists, 00:03:37.469 --> 00:03:40.110 be it to the Oval Office, the East Room, or elsewhere, 00:03:40.449 --> 00:03:42.930 it cannot then shut those doors to other journalists 00:03:42.930 --> 00:03:45.530 because of their viewpoints. The Constitution 00:03:45.530 --> 00:03:48.219 requires no less. Wow, that's strong language, 00:03:48.460 --> 00:03:50.259 and especially coming from, as you said, a Trump 00:03:50.259 --> 00:03:52.620 appointee. It really underscores that freedom 00:03:52.620 --> 00:03:55.120 of the press is paramount, even when it might 00:03:55.120 --> 00:03:58.000 be politically inconvenient. So kind of a loss 00:03:58.000 --> 00:04:00.139 for the administration there. But they did get 00:04:00.139 --> 00:04:02.340 a win at the Supreme Court. And this case was 00:04:02.340 --> 00:04:05.680 about those 16 ,000 probationary federal employees 00:04:05.680 --> 00:04:08.400 that had been fired. Right, right. And a lower 00:04:08.400 --> 00:04:11.439 court had issued an injunction to say that they 00:04:11.439 --> 00:04:14.400 should be rehired temporarily while the case 00:04:14.400 --> 00:04:16.680 was moving forward. OK. But the Supreme Court 00:04:16.680 --> 00:04:19.519 has now canceled that injunction. Interesting. 00:04:19.519 --> 00:04:22.759 So these are federal workers who are within a 00:04:22.759 --> 00:04:25.160 trial period. They have fewer job protections. 00:04:26.199 --> 00:04:28.699 So this is a win for the administration. But 00:04:28.699 --> 00:04:31.019 it could have a real impact on these 16 ,000 00:04:31.019 --> 00:04:33.399 people, because they're going to stay fired for 00:04:33.399 --> 00:04:35.680 who knows how long. It could take a long time 00:04:35.680 --> 00:04:38.480 to resolve the whole case. And if they do eventually 00:04:38.480 --> 00:04:40.480 win, they'll have been without pay for a really 00:04:40.480 --> 00:04:42.740 long time. And it's unlikely they'd be able to 00:04:42.740 --> 00:04:45.810 get back pay. So a temporary win for the White 00:04:45.810 --> 00:04:48.230 House, but potentially a permanent hardship for 00:04:48.230 --> 00:04:50.829 these workers. Wow, that's a great point. Another 00:04:50.829 --> 00:04:53.829 big Supreme Court decision today dealt with deportations 00:04:53.829 --> 00:04:56.430 to El Salvador. Okay. And this one mentions something 00:04:56.430 --> 00:04:59.480 called the Shadow Docket. Which sounds kind of 00:04:59.480 --> 00:05:02.139 ominous. Yeah, the shadow docket. It's been getting 00:05:02.139 --> 00:05:04.000 a lot of attention lately. The Supreme Court 00:05:04.000 --> 00:05:06.560 uses it to make decisions often on an emergency 00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:09.560 basis without the full briefing and oral arguments 00:05:09.560 --> 00:05:12.040 they usually do. So there's less transparency. 00:05:12.319 --> 00:05:14.899 So in this case, it was a five to four decision 00:05:14.899 --> 00:05:18.529 and the majority. basically redefine due process 00:05:18.529 --> 00:05:20.389 in a way that has a lot of people concerned. 00:05:20.910 --> 00:05:23.810 They ruled that a habeas corpus petition, which 00:05:23.810 --> 00:05:26.370 is a legal tool you can use to challenge unlawful 00:05:26.370 --> 00:05:29.050 detention, has to be filed in the place where 00:05:29.050 --> 00:05:31.750 you're being detained. So in this case, it would 00:05:31.750 --> 00:05:34.069 be Texas, regardless of where the person's actually 00:05:34.069 --> 00:05:36.089 being deported to. Well, that doesn't seem to 00:05:36.089 --> 00:05:38.990 make much sense. Right. If someone's facing deportation 00:05:38.990 --> 00:05:41.269 to El Salvador, why do they have to file a petition 00:05:41.269 --> 00:05:44.129 in Texas? And Justice Sotomayor actually dissented 00:05:44.129 --> 00:05:47.629 on that very point. that the majority was, let 00:05:47.629 --> 00:05:49.930 me find the exact quote here, oh yeah, rather 00:05:49.930 --> 00:05:52.129 aggressively reinventing the meaning of habeas 00:05:52.129 --> 00:05:54.829 corpus petition, and she pointed out that a habeas 00:05:54.829 --> 00:05:56.870 corpus petition is supposed to be about getting 00:05:56.870 --> 00:05:59.649 someone released from government custody, not 00:05:59.649 --> 00:06:01.850 about where they should be held if they are deported. 00:06:02.250 --> 00:06:04.949 It's a big legal interpretation, and it's going 00:06:04.949 --> 00:06:07.870 to have a very real impact on people facing deportation. 00:06:08.170 --> 00:06:10.670 Definitely. Okay, let's talk about immigration, 00:06:10.889 --> 00:06:13.269 and you know, our source uses this very strong 00:06:13.269 --> 00:06:16.800 word, gaslighting. They're saying that what the 00:06:16.800 --> 00:06:18.420 administration is doing is very different from 00:06:18.420 --> 00:06:20.060 what they're saying. Yeah, that's a strong word. 00:06:20.300 --> 00:06:21.959 But I see their point. You know, the administration 00:06:21.959 --> 00:06:24.079 has repeatedly said that they're committed to 00:06:24.079 --> 00:06:27.420 reducing undocumented immigration. And they cite 00:06:27.420 --> 00:06:30.040 reasons like combating crime, stopping fentanyl, 00:06:30.180 --> 00:06:32.300 protecting jobs for American workers, but their 00:06:32.300 --> 00:06:35.060 actions seem to contradict that. So specifically, 00:06:35.379 --> 00:06:37.459 they're revoking the residency status of around 00:06:37.459 --> 00:06:40.839 895 ,000 people who came to the U .S. legally. 00:06:41.360 --> 00:06:45.259 And they came in using the Biden -era CBP One 00:06:45.259 --> 00:06:48.079 app, which is now called CBP Home. What exactly 00:06:48.079 --> 00:06:51.060 was this app for? So the CBP One app was meant 00:06:51.060 --> 00:06:53.720 to be a legal pathway for sponsored immigrants. 00:06:54.220 --> 00:06:56.899 The idea was, instead of trying to come in illegally, 00:06:57.480 --> 00:06:59.279 if you had a sponsor in the U .S., someone who 00:06:59.279 --> 00:07:01.120 could offer you a job, you could apply for a 00:07:01.120 --> 00:07:02.860 green card through the app. So it was supposed 00:07:02.860 --> 00:07:05.160 to manage immigration in a more efficient and 00:07:05.160 --> 00:07:07.399 humane way. So these people followed the rules. 00:07:07.439 --> 00:07:09.620 They had sponsors, they were here legally, and 00:07:09.620 --> 00:07:11.389 now they're being kicked out. And our source 00:07:11.389 --> 00:07:14.370 calls them low -hanging fruit. Right. They're 00:07:14.370 --> 00:07:16.810 easy to find because they're not hiding. And 00:07:16.810 --> 00:07:18.970 because they came in legally, they tend to be 00:07:18.970 --> 00:07:22.399 law -abiding. So... The author's point is that 00:07:22.399 --> 00:07:25.420 deporting them doesn't really achieve the administration's 00:07:25.420 --> 00:07:27.740 stated goals. They're not criminals, they're 00:07:27.740 --> 00:07:30.040 not smuggling fentanyl, and they're not taking 00:07:30.040 --> 00:07:32.839 jobs away from American citizens because those 00:07:32.839 --> 00:07:35.579 jobs were offered through the app. And the author's 00:07:35.579 --> 00:07:37.500 suggesting that maybe the real goal isn't really 00:07:37.500 --> 00:07:40.180 about enforcing immigration laws, but more about 00:07:40.180 --> 00:07:42.339 just getting the numbers up. To make it look 00:07:42.339 --> 00:07:44.339 like they're being tough on immigration. Exactly. 00:07:44.459 --> 00:07:47.720 To create this illusion of success. So this gaslighting 00:07:47.720 --> 00:07:49.959 idea. It comes up again when we look at taxes. 00:07:50.500 --> 00:07:52.540 And there's a lot going on at the IRS driven 00:07:52.540 --> 00:07:55.399 by Elon Musk and his Department of Government 00:07:55.399 --> 00:07:59.199 Efficiency, which I guess is DOGE. Yeah, DOGE. 00:07:59.779 --> 00:08:02.480 Their stated goal is to save money, balance the 00:08:02.480 --> 00:08:04.600 budget by cutting spending across government 00:08:04.600 --> 00:08:07.100 agencies. Makes sense. But the IRS has been hit. 00:08:07.180 --> 00:08:09.540 particularly hard. And the projections are that 00:08:09.540 --> 00:08:11.819 these cuts could actually end up costing way 00:08:11.819 --> 00:08:14.139 more than they save. How is that possible? So 00:08:14.139 --> 00:08:16.480 of course they will save on salaries and benefits. 00:08:16.819 --> 00:08:19.920 But the analysis says that with fewer IRS staff, 00:08:20.180 --> 00:08:22.759 there will be a lot less auditing and enforcement. 00:08:22.860 --> 00:08:25.000 And that's going to lead to a drop in income 00:08:25.000 --> 00:08:27.519 tax revenue. They're predicting a 10 percent 00:08:27.519 --> 00:08:30.319 drop, which would be around five hundred billion 00:08:30.319 --> 00:08:33.419 dollars. Five hundred billion. That's huge. Yeah. 00:08:33.419 --> 00:08:35.960 And the author points out, sarcastically, does 00:08:35.960 --> 00:08:39.399 the average IRS employee earn 25 million dollars 00:08:39.399 --> 00:08:42.240 annually. The point being that the lost revenue 00:08:42.240 --> 00:08:45.200 dwarfs any savings from firing people. Yeah for 00:08:45.200 --> 00:08:47.879 sure. And on top of that the Department of Justice's 00:08:47.879 --> 00:08:50.460 tax division is being underfunded. They can't 00:08:50.460 --> 00:08:52.919 just eliminate it because it was created by law. 00:08:53.320 --> 00:08:55.639 But they've basically starved it of resources. 00:08:55.740 --> 00:08:58.080 So it'll still exist, but it won't be able to 00:08:58.080 --> 00:09:00.899 do its job, which is to enforce tax laws, especially 00:09:00.899 --> 00:09:03.159 against the wealthy. Interesting. And then there's 00:09:03.159 --> 00:09:08.220 this decision to share IRS data with IC for immigration 00:09:08.220 --> 00:09:09.919 enforcement. That sounds pretty controversial. 00:09:10.100 --> 00:09:13.080 Oh, yeah. It's raised a ton of ethical and legal 00:09:13.080 --> 00:09:15.440 concerns. And in fact, Acting IRS Commissioner 00:09:15.440 --> 00:09:18.860 Melanie Krauss resigned over it. And again, there's 00:09:18.860 --> 00:09:21.379 this apparent contradiction. You know, if these 00:09:21.379 --> 00:09:23.379 people are filing taxes, that means they're following 00:09:23.379 --> 00:09:26.399 the rules, paying their taxes. So using that 00:09:26.399 --> 00:09:28.720 information to deport them doesn't really make 00:09:28.720 --> 00:09:30.960 sense, and it could also backfire. If people 00:09:30.960 --> 00:09:33.259 are afraid they'll be deported for paying taxes, 00:09:33.399 --> 00:09:36.190 they might just stop paying taxes. Yeah, I see 00:09:36.190 --> 00:09:38.070 their point. So the overall argument is that 00:09:38.070 --> 00:09:40.769 these tax policies aren't really about fiscal 00:09:40.769 --> 00:09:43.330 responsibility. They're about helping the wealthy 00:09:43.330 --> 00:09:45.649 and reducing scrutiny on businesses. That's a 00:09:45.649 --> 00:09:48.110 pretty serious accusation. It is. And all these 00:09:48.110 --> 00:09:51.669 things together, the IRS cuts, the DOJ tax division, 00:09:51.870 --> 00:09:54.990 sharing data with ICE, it really suggests an 00:09:54.990 --> 00:09:57.129 agenda to shield the wealthy and make it harder 00:09:57.129 --> 00:10:00.409 to hold them accountable. OK, moving on. The 00:10:00.409 --> 00:10:02.490 last part of this gaslighting analysis is about 00:10:02.490 --> 00:10:05.179 coal. Oh, great. President Trump has always said 00:10:05.179 --> 00:10:08.360 he wants to bring back the coal industry, especially 00:10:08.360 --> 00:10:11.139 in states like West Virginia, Pennsylvania. And 00:10:11.139 --> 00:10:13.620 he's just issued four executive orders to try 00:10:13.620 --> 00:10:16.820 to do that, including one with his very interesting 00:10:16.820 --> 00:10:20.460 title, reinvigorating America's beautiful clean 00:10:20.460 --> 00:10:24.379 coal industry. Clean coal. That's a phrase that's 00:10:24.379 --> 00:10:26.840 been debated for a long time. Yeah. And President 00:10:26.840 --> 00:10:30.120 Trump has said that coal is clean, even the cleanest 00:10:30.120 --> 00:10:34.259 form of energy known to man. Not exactly accurate. 00:10:34.559 --> 00:10:36.980 Not quite. It's actually one of the dirtiest. 00:10:37.120 --> 00:10:39.879 Yeah. So, you know, regulations have definitely 00:10:39.879 --> 00:10:41.899 played a role in the decline of coal. Right. 00:10:42.080 --> 00:10:45.259 But the main reason is economic. Other energy 00:10:45.259 --> 00:10:49.580 sources like solar, wind, natural gas are just 00:10:49.580 --> 00:10:52.200 cheaper. Yeah. And building new coal plants is 00:10:52.200 --> 00:10:55.539 really expensive. It's a risky investment, which 00:10:55.539 --> 00:10:58.080 is why no one's built a major new coal plant 00:10:58.080 --> 00:11:01.080 in the U .S. for a decade. And it's not like 00:11:01.080 --> 00:11:02.639 President Trump hasn't tried this before. Right. 00:11:02.720 --> 00:11:05.259 This was a big part of his first term, too. And 00:11:05.259 --> 00:11:07.340 it didn't work then because the economics haven't 00:11:07.340 --> 00:11:09.559 changed. So the argument is that this isn't really 00:11:09.559 --> 00:11:12.159 about helping coal communities. It's about creating 00:11:12.159 --> 00:11:14.799 headlines, giving people false hope. And that 00:11:14.799 --> 00:11:16.879 actually makes it harder for them to transition 00:11:16.879 --> 00:11:19.039 to new industries. Kind of kicking the can down 00:11:19.039 --> 00:11:21.899 the road. Yeah, exactly. All right. Shifting 00:11:21.899 --> 00:11:26.000 gears now. I can't believe we're already talking 00:11:26.000 --> 00:11:29.120 about the 2026 Senate races. But hey, things 00:11:29.120 --> 00:11:31.700 move fast in politics. And some interesting news 00:11:31.700 --> 00:11:34.679 out of Texas. Oh, yeah. Attorney General Ken 00:11:34.679 --> 00:11:37.659 Paxton has officially announced that he's running 00:11:37.659 --> 00:11:39.799 for the Senate. I see. And he's going up against 00:11:39.799 --> 00:11:44.299 the incumbent John Cornyn. And Paxton is very 00:11:44.299 --> 00:11:46.480 popular with the Magier wing of the Republican 00:11:46.480 --> 00:11:50.820 Party. Early polling even shows him beating Cornyn 00:11:50.820 --> 00:11:53.799 in the primary. But our source says that while 00:11:53.799 --> 00:11:56.440 he might do well in the primary, the general 00:11:56.440 --> 00:11:58.879 election could be a different story. Yeah, that 00:11:58.879 --> 00:12:01.340 makes sense. Paxton's appeal might be limited 00:12:01.340 --> 00:12:04.440 to the most conservative Republicans, independent 00:12:04.440 --> 00:12:06.460 voters, and maybe moderate Republicans might 00:12:06.460 --> 00:12:08.960 not be so keen on him. So this could be an opportunity 00:12:08.960 --> 00:12:11.799 for a Democrat. Congressman Colin Allred, who 00:12:11.799 --> 00:12:13.720 ran against Ted Cruz a couple of years ago, he 00:12:13.720 --> 00:12:16.399 hasn't announced yet. But with Paxton in the 00:12:16.399 --> 00:12:19.100 race, he might jump in. OK. And up in New Hampshire, 00:12:19.299 --> 00:12:22.840 there's been some news that's not good for the 00:12:22.840 --> 00:12:25.500 Republicans. Really? Governor Chris Sunu has 00:12:25.500 --> 00:12:27.419 said he's not going to run for the Senate. This 00:12:27.419 --> 00:12:30.519 seat that's being vacated by Jean Shaheen and 00:12:30.519 --> 00:12:32.440 the National Republican Senatorial Committee, 00:12:32.440 --> 00:12:35.759 they're calling this bad news because Sunu was 00:12:35.759 --> 00:12:38.240 seen as their best shot at winning that seat. 00:12:38.440 --> 00:12:40.480 Oh, yeah, he's pretty popular. So who are the 00:12:40.480 --> 00:12:43.700 potential Republican candidates now? Well. There 00:12:43.700 --> 00:12:46.299 are a few names being thrown around, Scott Brown, 00:12:46.899 --> 00:12:50.460 Lily Tang Williams, and Corey Lewandowski. But 00:12:50.460 --> 00:12:52.960 they all have some weaknesses, including what's 00:12:52.960 --> 00:12:55.600 called carpet bagger problems, meaning they're 00:12:55.600 --> 00:12:58.879 seen as outsiders. Right. That can be a real 00:12:58.879 --> 00:13:01.379 problem in New Hampshire. Yeah. So the likely 00:13:01.379 --> 00:13:04.000 Democratic candidate is Chris Papas. And he would 00:13:04.000 --> 00:13:06.879 have had a tough race against Sununu, but against 00:13:06.879 --> 00:13:09.600 any of these other guys, he's the favorite. There's 00:13:09.600 --> 00:13:11.799 also a chance that Governor Kelly Ayotte might 00:13:11.799 --> 00:13:14.360 run. Oh, interesting. But that would mean risking 00:13:14.360 --> 00:13:15.860 the governorship. Right. They'd have to have 00:13:15.860 --> 00:13:18.720 a special election. Exactly. Yeah. So let's wrap 00:13:18.720 --> 00:13:22.039 up with a look at the House races. The DCCC has 00:13:22.039 --> 00:13:25.519 released their initial list of Republicans they're 00:13:25.519 --> 00:13:28.000 going to target in 2026, and they're clearly 00:13:28.000 --> 00:13:30.620 focusing on those who just barely won in 2024. 00:13:31.059 --> 00:13:34.179 There are 35 Republicans on this list, and they 00:13:34.179 --> 00:13:35.940 come from a range of districts, from slightly 00:13:35.940 --> 00:13:38.940 Democratic to solidly Republican. But a lot of 00:13:38.940 --> 00:13:41.019 them won by less than four points last time. 00:13:41.710 --> 00:13:44.529 So they could be vulnerable in a midterm election? 00:13:44.889 --> 00:13:46.889 Yeah, midterms are always tricky for the party 00:13:46.889 --> 00:13:50.230 in power. And the DCCC has also included some 00:13:50.230 --> 00:13:52.529 data on the median household income in these 00:13:52.529 --> 00:13:55.649 districts. What's the significance of that? Well, 00:13:55.769 --> 00:13:57.830 that kind of information can tell you a lot about 00:13:57.830 --> 00:14:00.110 the voters in a district, what issues matter 00:14:00.110 --> 00:14:03.129 to them, what messages resonate, and also voter 00:14:03.129 --> 00:14:06.309 turnout tends to be higher in wealthier districts. 00:14:06.669 --> 00:14:09.409 So the strategies for flipping a seat in a wealthy 00:14:09.409 --> 00:14:11.169 suburb are going to be different from flipping 00:14:11.169 --> 00:14:13.350 one in a rural area. Yeah, that makes sense. 00:14:13.549 --> 00:14:16.149 And some Republicans in districts that are, you 00:14:16.149 --> 00:14:17.950 know, only slightly Republican, they're not on 00:14:17.950 --> 00:14:19.269 the list. What do you think is going on there? 00:14:19.669 --> 00:14:22.190 Well, the DCCC has to pick their battles. They 00:14:22.190 --> 00:14:24.409 only have so much money and resources. So maybe 00:14:24.409 --> 00:14:26.470 those Republicans are just really strong. Maybe 00:14:26.470 --> 00:14:28.409 they overperformed last time or they're good 00:14:28.409 --> 00:14:30.950 at raising money or maybe the demographics of 00:14:30.950 --> 00:14:33.190 their districts just make them really tough to 00:14:33.190 --> 00:14:37.059 beat. So. As we wrap up, what are the big themes 00:14:37.059 --> 00:14:40.100 that tie all of this together? Well, I think 00:14:40.100 --> 00:14:42.299 we're seeing a pattern here. The administration 00:14:42.299 --> 00:14:46.220 is pushing through some big changes, trade, immigration, 00:14:46.700 --> 00:14:49.740 taxes, but they're not always being straight 00:14:49.740 --> 00:14:51.460 with the public about what they're doing. And 00:14:51.460 --> 00:14:53.879 the courts are pushing back in some cases, but 00:14:53.879 --> 00:14:57.059 not in others. And meanwhile, the political gears 00:14:57.059 --> 00:15:01.009 are already turning for 2026. Yeah. It's a lot 00:15:01.009 --> 00:15:03.629 to keep track of. But hopefully this deep dive 00:15:03.629 --> 00:15:05.669 has made it a little bit easier to understand. 00:15:06.350 --> 00:15:08.049 Exactly. And we've given you some things to think 00:15:08.049 --> 00:15:10.649 about. For sure. Like this new trade war, for 00:15:10.649 --> 00:15:12.889 example. Yeah. What do you think the long term 00:15:12.889 --> 00:15:14.590 effects are going to be, not just here, but around 00:15:14.590 --> 00:15:16.769 the world? That's something worth pondering. 00:15:17.009 --> 00:15:18.710 Absolutely. Thanks for joining us. We'll be back 00:15:18.710 --> 00:15:20.490 soon with another deep dive. See you then.