WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.620 Welcome back, everyone. It's time for another 00:00:02.620 --> 00:00:05.299 deep dive. Yeah. And this time, we are going 00:00:05.299 --> 00:00:07.099 to take a look at all the stuff that you sent 00:00:07.099 --> 00:00:13.859 our way from April 8th, 2025. Yeah. So yeah, 00:00:14.460 --> 00:00:16.199 we've got a lot to cover today. I mean, just 00:00:16.199 --> 00:00:17.480 glancing through it, we've got the trade war, 00:00:17.480 --> 00:00:19.859 of course, which never seems to really go away. 00:00:19.859 --> 00:00:22.179 Right. And then there's some interesting stuff 00:00:22.179 --> 00:00:25.120 happening at the Supreme Court. Looks like we 00:00:25.120 --> 00:00:26.960 might be getting another attempt at a military 00:00:26.960 --> 00:00:32.020 parade. Oh. Yeah, and a gubernatorial race heating 00:00:32.020 --> 00:00:36.140 up in Michigan Okay, some well questionable timing 00:00:36.140 --> 00:00:38.560 for a special election down in Texas Interesting 00:00:38.560 --> 00:00:40.539 and then all this buzz around these hands -off 00:00:40.539 --> 00:00:42.719 protests and a bunch of swing states. Yeah, I 00:00:42.719 --> 00:00:45.259 noticed that in the sources Yeah, so lots to 00:00:45.259 --> 00:00:47.880 dig into as always. We'll try to pull out like 00:00:47.880 --> 00:00:49.960 the the most important insights So you don't 00:00:49.960 --> 00:00:51.820 have to wait through pages and pages of this 00:00:51.820 --> 00:00:54.259 stuff, right? so why don't we just jump right 00:00:54.259 --> 00:00:58.229 in sure and I guess the most logical place to 00:00:58.229 --> 00:01:01.049 start would be with the trade war. I mean, it's 00:01:01.049 --> 00:01:02.390 front and center in a lot of these articles. 00:01:02.750 --> 00:01:05.310 Yeah, for sure. The markets reaction yesterday 00:01:05.310 --> 00:01:09.349 kind of sums it up. I mean, the Dow dropped almost 00:01:09.349 --> 00:01:14.209 a full percentage point, .91%, to be exact. And 00:01:14.209 --> 00:01:18.709 the S &P 500 wasn't much better, down .23%. NASDAQ 00:01:18.709 --> 00:01:21.390 actually managed to go up a little bit, .10%. 00:01:21.390 --> 00:01:23.730 Oh, interesting. But yeah, I mean, this whole 00:01:23.730 --> 00:01:25.849 thing with the tariffs and the market just freaking 00:01:25.849 --> 00:01:28.269 out every time there's any news, it's like a 00:01:28.269 --> 00:01:30.069 broken record at this point. It's exhausting. 00:01:30.250 --> 00:01:31.950 Yeah, it really is. And you know, it makes you 00:01:31.950 --> 00:01:33.989 wonder what businesses are supposed to do. Right, 00:01:33.989 --> 00:01:36.719 like how can you plan anything when the rules 00:01:36.719 --> 00:01:39.359 of the game keep changing. Exactly. Exactly. 00:01:39.480 --> 00:01:40.700 I mean, are they supposed to just constantly 00:01:40.700 --> 00:01:43.140 be adjusting their supply chains and their pricing? 00:01:43.319 --> 00:01:45.359 And consumers, too. Like, how do you budget when 00:01:45.359 --> 00:01:46.760 you don't know what things are going to cost? 00:01:46.819 --> 00:01:49.640 It's just a mess. It is. And speaking of messes, 00:01:49.700 --> 00:01:53.239 there's this, well, this interesting tidbit that 00:01:53.239 --> 00:01:56.219 I came across. It seems that President Trump 00:01:56.219 --> 00:02:00.819 has now achieved a rather, let's say, unique 00:02:00.819 --> 00:02:03.890 distinction. I'm intrigued. He is now the only 00:02:03.890 --> 00:02:06.650 president to oversee three of the five fastest 00:02:06.650 --> 00:02:09.770 10 percent drops in the stock market. Wow. Yeah. 00:02:09.889 --> 00:02:11.590 So which ones are we talking about? Well, we've 00:02:11.590 --> 00:02:14.270 got February 2020, of course. Right. And then 00:02:14.270 --> 00:02:16.530 January, February 2018. And then this latest 00:02:16.530 --> 00:02:21.830 one, February, March 2025. You know, it's that 00:02:21.830 --> 00:02:24.169 speed that's really alarming, especially with 00:02:24.169 --> 00:02:26.550 this most recent one. Like we're not even a full 00:02:26.550 --> 00:02:28.430 term in and we're already seeing this kind of 00:02:28.430 --> 00:02:31.680 volatility. And remember 2020? I mean, that drop 00:02:31.680 --> 00:02:35.000 was incredibly fast. Right. Just eight days to 00:02:35.000 --> 00:02:36.840 lose 10 percent. It's almost like a pattern. 00:02:37.340 --> 00:02:39.479 It is. And then you start digging into the specifics 00:02:39.479 --> 00:02:41.520 of these trade policies. And one of the articles 00:02:41.520 --> 00:02:43.520 you sent, I mean, they just come right out and 00:02:43.520 --> 00:02:47.500 say it dumber than dirt. Oh, wow. OK, strong 00:02:47.500 --> 00:02:48.939 words. Yeah, they're talking about that whole 00:02:48.939 --> 00:02:51.280 formula the White House is using to calculate 00:02:51.280 --> 00:02:54.259 the tariffs. You know with the elasticity of 00:02:54.259 --> 00:02:56.280 import demand of which they've decided to call 00:02:56.280 --> 00:02:59.439 Epsilon and set it for right and then the elasticity 00:02:59.439 --> 00:03:02.840 of import prices Which is Phi at a quarter. Okay. 00:03:02.840 --> 00:03:05.460 So what's the problem with that? Well, the White 00:03:05.460 --> 00:03:07.919 House spokesperson claimed that these two figures 00:03:07.919 --> 00:03:10.500 Epsilon and Phi were basically cancel each other 00:03:10.500 --> 00:03:13.340 out. Uh -huh Interesting. So they're saying like 00:03:13.629 --> 00:03:16.490 The impact of one will be negated by the impact 00:03:16.490 --> 00:03:18.430 of the other. Right, exactly. Yeah, I see where 00:03:18.430 --> 00:03:20.849 this is going. But the American Enterprise Institute, 00:03:20.969 --> 00:03:23.710 which the article refers to as actual professional 00:03:23.710 --> 00:03:26.530 economists. Okay. Yeah, they definitely have 00:03:26.530 --> 00:03:29.229 more credibility. They strongly disagree. Of 00:03:29.229 --> 00:03:31.610 course. They're saying that that quarter value, 00:03:32.030 --> 00:03:34.370 that's actually the elasticity of retail prices. 00:03:35.090 --> 00:03:37.750 But the elasticity of imports is much, much higher. 00:03:38.389 --> 00:03:41.650 Closer to .945, they say. So it's like comparing 00:03:41.650 --> 00:03:44.530 apples and oranges. Exactly. And when you use 00:03:44.530 --> 00:03:47.669 the correct value for imports, well, the AEI 00:03:47.669 --> 00:03:49.750 found that the tariffs should actually be between 00:03:49.750 --> 00:03:53.530 10 % and 14%. Which is significantly lower than 00:03:53.530 --> 00:03:55.490 what we're seeing now. Yeah, it's a huge difference. 00:03:55.629 --> 00:03:58.229 And it all comes down to bad data. Right. Like, 00:03:58.330 --> 00:04:00.189 how can you make policy decisions when you're 00:04:00.189 --> 00:04:02.310 working with the wrong numbers? It's mind -boggling. 00:04:02.669 --> 00:04:05.349 It really is. And it's not just the think tanks 00:04:05.349 --> 00:04:08.259 that are worried. The business community in Wall 00:04:08.259 --> 00:04:10.159 Street, they're getting pretty vocal about all 00:04:10.159 --> 00:04:12.699 of this, too. Hmm, makes sense. I mean, they're 00:04:12.699 --> 00:04:14.800 the ones on the front lines. Yeah, Jamie Dimon, 00:04:14.919 --> 00:04:17.819 the CEO of JP Morgan Chase. OK, yeah, he's a 00:04:17.819 --> 00:04:20.980 big deal. He basically said straight up in his 00:04:20.980 --> 00:04:23.699 annual shareholder letter that these tariffs 00:04:23.699 --> 00:04:26.540 are going to make inflation worse. Yeah, it's 00:04:26.540 --> 00:04:29.379 not surprising. Right. I mean, it's basic economics. 00:04:29.660 --> 00:04:32.279 Tariffs make imports more expensive and those 00:04:32.279 --> 00:04:34.639 costs get passed down to the consumer. Exactly. 00:04:34.699 --> 00:04:37.589 Like a chain reaction. And then there's Ken Langone. 00:04:37.769 --> 00:04:40.509 Who's that? He's the founder of Home Depot. Oh, 00:04:40.509 --> 00:04:42.529 wow. OK. And he's actually a Trump supporter. 00:04:42.910 --> 00:04:45.230 Interesting. But even he's calling the tariffs, 00:04:45.350 --> 00:04:49.769 and I quote, bullshit. Oh, my. He even said he 00:04:49.769 --> 00:04:52.930 doesn't understand the formula. If Ken Langone 00:04:52.930 --> 00:04:55.709 doesn't get it, that says something. And it's 00:04:55.709 --> 00:04:58.490 not just him. Stanley Druckenmiller and another 00:04:58.490 --> 00:05:01.829 billionaire, also a Trump backer, he said he's 00:05:01.829 --> 00:05:05.470 against any tariffs over 10%. And Bill Ackman. 00:05:05.680 --> 00:05:08.540 Yet another billionaire, and you guess it, another 00:05:08.540 --> 00:05:10.819 Trump supporter. OK, I'm sensing a theme here. 00:05:11.040 --> 00:05:13.480 He's calling the tariffs a major policy error. 00:05:13.699 --> 00:05:16.339 So even some of his closest allies are starting 00:05:16.339 --> 00:05:19.040 to have serious doubts. It seems like it. That's 00:05:19.040 --> 00:05:21.519 got to sting. Yeah. And then there's Elon Musk. 00:05:21.959 --> 00:05:25.639 Ah, yes. The article calls him the donor. Uh 00:05:25.639 --> 00:05:28.300 -huh. With good reason, I imagine. Yeah, well, 00:05:28.399 --> 00:05:30.100 apparently he tried to talk Trump out of the 00:05:30.100 --> 00:05:33.439 tariffs privately. Did it work? Nope. And then 00:05:33.439 --> 00:05:36.470 he went public with his opposition. Oh, that's 00:05:36.470 --> 00:05:39.410 gotta go over well. You know, Trump, he doesn't 00:05:39.410 --> 00:05:41.810 take criticism well. Not at all. And it gets 00:05:41.810 --> 00:05:45.029 even better. Musk and Peter Navarro, Trump's 00:05:45.029 --> 00:05:46.930 trade advisor, they've been having this public 00:05:46.930 --> 00:05:49.350 feud on social media. Oh, this is, I gotta hear. 00:05:49.389 --> 00:05:52.009 Yeah, just trading insults back and forth. Yikes. 00:05:52.310 --> 00:05:55.649 Musk called Navarro a car salesman because he 00:05:55.649 --> 00:05:58.430 has a Harvard PhD. Oh, that's a good one. And 00:05:58.430 --> 00:06:01.769 Navarro fired back, calling Musk just a car salesman. 00:06:02.209 --> 00:06:05.100 Ouch. It's gotten pretty nasty. So much for taking 00:06:05.100 --> 00:06:07.779 the high road. Right. And all of this has apparently 00:06:07.779 --> 00:06:09.740 made things even worse between Trump and Musk. 00:06:09.819 --> 00:06:11.759 I bet. And there's even talk that this whole 00:06:11.759 --> 00:06:15.500 thing could speed up Musk's exit from DOGE. I 00:06:15.500 --> 00:06:17.759 think it's Dogecoin, that cryptocurrency. No, 00:06:17.800 --> 00:06:20.079 right, right. Yeah, Musk is really into that. 00:06:20.279 --> 00:06:23.339 So, yeah, I mean, this trade war drama is even 00:06:23.339 --> 00:06:25.180 spilling over into the crypto world. It's like 00:06:25.180 --> 00:06:27.639 a soap opera at this point. It really is. And 00:06:27.639 --> 00:06:29.980 speaking of drama, there's also pushback coming 00:06:29.980 --> 00:06:33.160 from Capitol Hill. Oh, really? So - Congress 00:06:33.160 --> 00:06:35.779 is finally stepping up. It seems like it. The 00:06:35.779 --> 00:06:37.699 article points out that if all the Democrats 00:06:37.699 --> 00:06:39.959 and independents in the Senate vote against the 00:06:39.959 --> 00:06:43.319 tariffs, they would need 13 Republican votes 00:06:43.319 --> 00:06:46.540 to overcome a filibuster on any bill that tries 00:06:46.540 --> 00:06:49.139 to limit Trump's tariff authority. Right. And 00:06:49.139 --> 00:06:51.060 then they'd need another seven Republican votes 00:06:51.060 --> 00:06:54.100 to override a veto. Hmm. That's a tall order. 00:06:54.300 --> 00:06:56.180 Yeah, they're not quite there yet. So how many 00:06:56.180 --> 00:06:58.259 Republicans are actually on board with limiting 00:06:58.259 --> 00:07:01.089 the tariffs? Well, there's this bill. The Trade 00:07:01.089 --> 00:07:04.629 Review Act of 2025. OK. It would basically force 00:07:04.629 --> 00:07:07.810 Congress to review any new tariffs before they 00:07:07.810 --> 00:07:09.850 can go into effect. That makes sense. Checks 00:07:09.850 --> 00:07:12.089 and balances and all that. Exactly. And it already 00:07:12.089 --> 00:07:14.529 has seven Republican co -sponsors. Who are they? 00:07:14.709 --> 00:07:17.490 Well, you've got Collins, Grassley, McConnell. 00:07:17.850 --> 00:07:20.110 Ooh, McConnell. That's significant. Yeah. And 00:07:20.110 --> 00:07:23.639 then Moran, Murkowski, Tillis, and Young. OK, 00:07:23.839 --> 00:07:26.620 so a mix of usual suspects and some maybe less 00:07:26.620 --> 00:07:28.720 predictable ones. Right. And then you can probably 00:07:28.720 --> 00:07:31.699 add Rand Paul and Ted Cruz to that list. They're 00:07:31.699 --> 00:07:34.139 pretty consistently anti -tariff. Yeah, true. 00:07:34.420 --> 00:07:37.399 So the thinking is that if the tariffs start 00:07:37.399 --> 00:07:40.480 really hurting the economy, we could see even 00:07:40.480 --> 00:07:42.699 more Republicans joining the rebellion. That's 00:07:42.699 --> 00:07:44.579 definitely something to watch. Oh, and there 00:07:44.579 --> 00:07:46.339 was this crazy thing that happened yesterday 00:07:46.339 --> 00:07:49.160 morning. What happened? This rumor started spreading 00:07:49.160 --> 00:07:51.980 on X. You know, what used to be Twitter. Oh, 00:07:52.139 --> 00:07:55.279 right, right. Anyway, the rumor was that Trump 00:07:55.279 --> 00:07:59.899 was going to pause tariffs for 90 days for every 00:07:59.899 --> 00:08:03.240 country except China. A temporary truce. Interesting. 00:08:03.459 --> 00:08:05.600 Yeah, and it was supposed to, like, help with 00:08:05.600 --> 00:08:07.379 negotiations or something. OK, that makes sense. 00:08:07.699 --> 00:08:11.660 But get this. The Dow Jones jumped 1 ,000 points 00:08:11.660 --> 00:08:14.819 in 10 minutes on this news. Wow. I know, right? 00:08:14.899 --> 00:08:16.740 Yeah. But then, of course, it turned out to be 00:08:16.740 --> 00:08:18.980 fake news, and all those gains disappeared just 00:08:18.980 --> 00:08:21.459 as quickly. So much for that. Yeah. But it's 00:08:21.459 --> 00:08:23.019 really interesting to see how quickly the market 00:08:23.019 --> 00:08:26.199 reacted. It shows just how much uncertainty there 00:08:26.199 --> 00:08:28.860 is around all of this. And how desperate people 00:08:28.860 --> 00:08:31.759 are for some good news. Right. And actually, 00:08:32.000 --> 00:08:34.100 there might be some actual news on that front, 00:08:34.240 --> 00:08:36.419 not just rumors. Really? Yeah. Trump announced 00:08:36.419 --> 00:08:39.519 that he might be willing to lower tariffs on 00:08:39.519 --> 00:08:43.659 the EU if they agree to buy $350 billion worth 00:08:43.659 --> 00:08:47.120 of American energy. Hmm. That's a lot of energy. 00:08:47.259 --> 00:08:50.299 It is. And how would that even work? Yeah, that's 00:08:50.299 --> 00:08:53.399 the thing. No one seems to know, not even people 00:08:53.399 --> 00:08:55.940 in the administration. So more of a vague promise 00:08:55.940 --> 00:08:59.330 than a concrete plan? Pretty much. Yeah. But 00:08:59.330 --> 00:09:00.909 hey, at least he's talking about lowering tariffs, 00:09:00.970 --> 00:09:04.350 right? I guess. Although on the other hand, he's 00:09:04.350 --> 00:09:06.330 also threatened to increase tariffs on China 00:09:06.330 --> 00:09:09.450 by another 50%. Yeah, so it's a mixed bag for 00:09:09.450 --> 00:09:11.330 sure. It's hard to know what to make of it all. 00:09:11.769 --> 00:09:14.230 And meanwhile, while all of this is happening, 00:09:14.309 --> 00:09:15.669 you know, with the markets going up and down 00:09:15.669 --> 00:09:17.389 and everyone freaking out about the trade war, 00:09:18.029 --> 00:09:21.269 Trump is at Mar -a -Lago playing golf. Of course 00:09:21.269 --> 00:09:23.809 he is. But he wasn't just playing, he was competing 00:09:23.809 --> 00:09:27.049 in a tournament. Okay. Which he won, by the way. 00:09:27.129 --> 00:09:29.149 I'm sure he let everyone know. Oh, absolutely. 00:09:29.490 --> 00:09:31.750 He was bragging to reporters about it. That sounds 00:09:31.750 --> 00:09:33.789 about right. And then he went on social media 00:09:33.789 --> 00:09:36.649 with this, you know, typical Trump rant. Oh, 00:09:36.789 --> 00:09:39.409 boy. What did he say? Don't be weak. Don't be 00:09:39.409 --> 00:09:42.110 stupid. Don't be a panikin. A panikin? Is that 00:09:42.110 --> 00:09:44.889 even a word? He seems to have invented it. Yeah. 00:09:45.110 --> 00:09:47.409 He was basically saying, you know, be strong, 00:09:47.610 --> 00:09:50.649 be courageous, be patient. Greatness is coming. 00:09:51.099 --> 00:09:53.620 Hmm. It's a very different message than we're 00:09:53.620 --> 00:09:55.659 hearing from the markets. Yeah. And the article, 00:09:56.139 --> 00:10:00.179 they couldn't resist comparing it to FDR's fireside 00:10:00.179 --> 00:10:02.799 chats. Oh, yeah. The calming reassurance in times 00:10:02.799 --> 00:10:05.139 of crisis. Right. Very different vibe. You say 00:10:05.139 --> 00:10:07.519 the least. OK. So let's move on from the trade 00:10:07.519 --> 00:10:09.059 war for a bit and talk about what's happening 00:10:09.059 --> 00:10:11.559 with the Supreme Court. OK. Sounds good. It's 00:10:11.559 --> 00:10:13.740 been a pretty busy week for them with some interesting 00:10:13.740 --> 00:10:16.500 rulings. Anything major? Well, there was a unanimous 00:10:16.500 --> 00:10:19.159 decision that people facing deportation under 00:10:19.159 --> 00:10:21.360 the Alien Enemies Act, they have to be given 00:10:21.360 --> 00:10:24.000 a fair warning and a chance to fight their deportation 00:10:24.000 --> 00:10:26.659 in court. OK, that seems fair. Due process and 00:10:26.659 --> 00:10:30.100 all that. So good news for those facing deportation, 00:10:30.120 --> 00:10:33.100 I guess. Well, not so fast. In another decision, 00:10:33.299 --> 00:10:36.820 this one 5 -4, the court lifted the injunction 00:10:36.820 --> 00:10:39.320 that was blocking the Alien Enemies Act. So back 00:10:39.320 --> 00:10:42.039 to square one. Pretty much. And to make matters 00:10:42.039 --> 00:10:44.799 worse, All those legal battles are now going 00:10:44.799 --> 00:10:47.700 to happen in federal court in Texas. That's not 00:10:47.700 --> 00:10:50.379 ideal. Texas courts tend to be a lot more sympathetic 00:10:50.379 --> 00:10:53.519 to the Trump administration. So not looking good 00:10:53.519 --> 00:10:56.039 for those challenging the deportations. It's 00:10:56.039 --> 00:10:57.799 an uphill battle for sure. And it really shows 00:10:57.799 --> 00:11:00.759 how much venue matters in these cases. Absolutely. 00:11:01.019 --> 00:11:03.799 Like where the case is heard can have a huge 00:11:03.799 --> 00:11:06.100 impact on the outcome. Totally. And then there's 00:11:06.100 --> 00:11:09.639 this case with Kilmar Abrego -Garcia. Who's that? 00:11:09.879 --> 00:11:12.320 He's the guy who was deported by mistake. By 00:11:12.320 --> 00:11:14.379 mistake. Yeah. Even the administration admitted 00:11:14.379 --> 00:11:17.440 they messed up. Wow. That's a pretty big mistake. 00:11:17.679 --> 00:11:19.320 Yeah. So you'd think getting him back would be 00:11:19.320 --> 00:11:21.879 a pretty straightforward thing. Right. But Chief 00:11:21.879 --> 00:11:25.279 Justice Roberts, he extended the deadline for 00:11:25.279 --> 00:11:27.700 Garcia's return. Why would he do that? He said 00:11:27.700 --> 00:11:30.200 he wants more time for the Supreme Court to consider 00:11:30.200 --> 00:11:33.120 the matter. Hmm. That's odd for such a seemingly 00:11:33.120 --> 00:11:35.600 simple case. Yeah, it makes you wonder if there's 00:11:35.600 --> 00:11:37.500 something else going on. Maybe some disagreement 00:11:37.500 --> 00:11:39.720 among the justices. Could be. And then there's 00:11:39.720 --> 00:11:42.240 this whole thing with the shadow docket. Shadow 00:11:42.240 --> 00:11:45.080 docket? What's that? It's basically this emergency 00:11:45.080 --> 00:11:47.379 docket the court uses to make quick decisions 00:11:47.379 --> 00:11:49.620 without all the usual briefing and arguments. 00:11:49.840 --> 00:11:52.080 OK, so like a shortcut. Yeah. And they used it 00:11:52.080 --> 00:11:54.639 to grant relief to the Trump administration regarding 00:11:54.639 --> 00:11:57.100 those teacher training grants. Oh, yeah, I remember 00:11:57.100 --> 00:11:59.679 that. Those were the grants that Congress authorized 00:11:59.679 --> 00:12:01.940 and then Trump tried to cancel. Right. And the 00:12:01.940 --> 00:12:04.009 lower courts blocked him from doing that. So 00:12:04.009 --> 00:12:06.409 Trump went to the Supreme Court. And they sided 00:12:06.409 --> 00:12:09.929 with him using this shadow docket. Hmm. That's 00:12:09.929 --> 00:12:12.269 concerning. Yeah, Justice Jackson. She wrote 00:12:12.269 --> 00:12:14.429 a pretty scathing dissent. What did she say? 00:12:15.129 --> 00:12:18.909 She basically argued that if this shadow docket 00:12:18.909 --> 00:12:22.210 has become a way for certain people... And by 00:12:22.210 --> 00:12:24.370 certain people, she means the Trump administration. 00:12:24.549 --> 00:12:26.789 Right. To basically skip the line and get the 00:12:26.789 --> 00:12:28.549 Supreme Court's opinion without going through 00:12:28.549 --> 00:12:30.889 the normal process. Then they need to be honest 00:12:30.889 --> 00:12:33.159 about that. I see her point. It's like they're 00:12:33.159 --> 00:12:35.879 getting special treatment. Exactly. And it undermines 00:12:35.879 --> 00:12:38.879 the whole idea of a fair and impartial judiciary. 00:12:39.279 --> 00:12:42.139 Right. And in this specific case, the government 00:12:42.139 --> 00:12:45.259 waited weeks before even asking the Supreme Court 00:12:45.259 --> 00:12:47.320 to intervene. So it wasn't even that urgent. 00:12:48.059 --> 00:12:50.799 Apparently not. Their main argument was that 00:12:50.799 --> 00:12:52.960 the grant money might be given out before the 00:12:52.960 --> 00:12:56.320 TRO expired. Hmm. That's a weak argument. Yeah. 00:12:56.360 --> 00:12:58.039 And the Supreme Court just went along with it. 00:12:58.200 --> 00:13:00.759 So basically, they signaled to the lower court. 00:13:00.889 --> 00:13:03.429 that they think they made a mistake without even 00:13:03.429 --> 00:13:05.909 bothering to hear the full arguments. Exactly. 00:13:06.149 --> 00:13:07.929 And that's the problem with the Shattered Docket. 00:13:08.090 --> 00:13:10.769 It's like they're making these big decisions 00:13:10.769 --> 00:13:13.690 behind closed doors. Right. And it erodes public 00:13:13.690 --> 00:13:15.909 trust in the court. Because it starts to look 00:13:15.909 --> 00:13:17.850 like they're just doing favors for certain people. 00:13:17.929 --> 00:13:20.169 Right. It makes them look biased, even if they're 00:13:20.169 --> 00:13:22.090 not. OK, so let's take a break from all this 00:13:22.090 --> 00:13:23.570 serious stuff and talk about something a little 00:13:23.570 --> 00:13:27.350 lighter. Lighter. After all that. I'm not sure 00:13:27.350 --> 00:13:29.750 that's possible. Well, how about a military parade? 00:13:29.950 --> 00:13:34.750 Oh no, not that again. It's back. Apparently 00:13:34.750 --> 00:13:37.210 Trump hasn't given up on the idea. You're kidding! 00:13:37.389 --> 00:13:39.730 Nope. He still wants his big military parade. 00:13:40.149 --> 00:13:42.769 But didn't they try to do this before? Yeah, 00:13:42.809 --> 00:13:45.409 back in his first term. Right. And it got cancelled. 00:13:45.470 --> 00:13:47.490 It did. It was going to be way too expensive, 00:13:47.950 --> 00:13:50.330 like millions and millions of dollars. Yeah, 00:13:50.330 --> 00:13:52.210 I remember that. And people were worried about 00:13:52.210 --> 00:13:54.190 it damaging the streets. Plus, everyone thought 00:13:54.190 --> 00:13:56.809 it was just a ridiculous idea. Right. And even 00:13:56.809 --> 00:13:59.519 the Pentagon wasn't that keen on it. But he's 00:13:59.519 --> 00:14:02.460 bringing it back. He is. It seems like some ideas 00:14:02.460 --> 00:14:06.220 just never die. I guess not. So what's changed? 00:14:06.440 --> 00:14:08.080 Why does he think he can pull it off this time? 00:14:08.399 --> 00:14:10.519 Well, for one thing, he's even more authoritarian 00:14:10.519 --> 00:14:14.120 now. That's not reassuring. And he's got all 00:14:14.120 --> 00:14:16.559 these new appointees who are basically yes men. 00:14:16.899 --> 00:14:20.039 OK, so less pushback from within the administration. 00:14:20.259 --> 00:14:22.759 Right, like the current Secretary of Defense, 00:14:22.980 --> 00:14:26.120 Pete Hegseth. Oh, yeah. He's a very different 00:14:26.120 --> 00:14:28.460 type than Jim Mattis, who was the Secretary of 00:14:28.460 --> 00:14:31.000 Defense during Trump's first term. Yeah, Mattis 00:14:31.000 --> 00:14:33.340 was a lot more independent. Right. And he probably 00:14:33.340 --> 00:14:35.539 would have pushed back against this parade idea. 00:14:36.019 --> 00:14:38.750 But Higgs. He's just gonna go along with whatever 00:14:38.750 --> 00:14:41.389 Trump wants. Pretty much. And when is this parade 00:14:41.389 --> 00:14:45.029 supposed to happen? June 14th. June 14th. Is 00:14:45.029 --> 00:14:48.470 the Army's 250th anniversary Trump's 79th birthday. 00:14:48.710 --> 00:14:51.169 Oh of course, how convenient. Right, so they're 00:14:51.169 --> 00:14:52.950 trying to sell it as a celebration of the Army, 00:14:53.110 --> 00:14:55.470 but come on. It's totally a birthday parade for 00:14:55.470 --> 00:14:58.289 Trump. Totally. The plan is to have this four 00:14:58.289 --> 00:15:01.669 mile long parade route from the Pentagon to the 00:15:01.669 --> 00:15:04.940 White House. Four mile - That's insane. It is. 00:15:05.100 --> 00:15:07.019 And how much is this going to cost? An estimated 00:15:07.019 --> 00:15:10.279 $125 million. You've got to be kidding. Nope, 00:15:10.519 --> 00:15:12.120 that's the number. And I'm sure it'll be even 00:15:12.120 --> 00:15:14.679 more in the end. Probably. And can you imagine 00:15:14.679 --> 00:15:18.159 the optics of this? A huge military parade right 00:15:18.159 --> 00:15:20.240 down Pennsylvania Avenue. It's like it's something 00:15:20.240 --> 00:15:23.539 out of North Korea. Or Mussolini's Italy. The 00:15:23.539 --> 00:15:25.779 article says that the Democrats and the media 00:15:25.779 --> 00:15:28.190 are going to have a field day with this. Oh, 00:15:28.190 --> 00:15:31.110 for sure. It's gonna be a huge PR disaster. It's 00:15:31.110 --> 00:15:33.830 hard to see how it could be anything else. There 00:15:33.830 --> 00:15:36.929 are still some hurdles though. First of all, 00:15:37.110 --> 00:15:39.309 they only have ten weeks to pull this off. Ten 00:15:39.309 --> 00:15:42.870 weeks? To organize a massive military parade? 00:15:43.110 --> 00:15:45.549 Yeah, good luck with that. It's a logistical 00:15:45.549 --> 00:15:47.509 nightmare. Right. And then there's the fact that 00:15:47.509 --> 00:15:49.909 they need Congress to approve the funding. Oh, 00:15:49.909 --> 00:15:52.649 right, the $125 million. And that's not going 00:15:52.649 --> 00:15:55.029 to be easy. Especially with all the other controversies 00:15:55.029 --> 00:15:57.309 swirling around. Yeah, but if Trump really wants 00:15:57.309 --> 00:15:59.929 this parade, I wouldn't put it past him to find 00:15:59.929 --> 00:16:02.730 a way. I guess we'll have to wait and see. OK, 00:16:02.750 --> 00:16:04.750 so let's shift gears again and talk about some 00:16:04.750 --> 00:16:08.149 actual elections. OK, finally. In Michigan, John 00:16:08.149 --> 00:16:11.149 James has thrown his hat into the ring for the 00:16:11.149 --> 00:16:15.049 2026 gubernatorial race. John James, the guy 00:16:15.049 --> 00:16:17.289 who lost those two Senate races. The one and 00:16:17.289 --> 00:16:20.809 only. So why is he running for governor? Well, 00:16:21.049 --> 00:16:23.210 it seems his current house seat isn't as safe 00:16:23.210 --> 00:16:25.490 as he'd like. What do you mean? Well, it's in 00:16:25.490 --> 00:16:28.269 Michigan's 10th congressional district, which 00:16:28.269 --> 00:16:31.610 is rated R plus three. So it leans Republican, 00:16:31.929 --> 00:16:34.210 but not by much. Right, and with the possibility 00:16:34.210 --> 00:16:36.830 of a blue wave in the next election, I see. He 00:16:36.830 --> 00:16:39.149 might be worried about losing. So governor is 00:16:39.149 --> 00:16:42.289 a safer bet. Maybe, but it's still gonna be a 00:16:42.289 --> 00:16:44.710 tough race. Especially since he's already lost 00:16:44.710 --> 00:16:47.549 two statewide elections. Yeah, it's not exactly 00:16:47.549 --> 00:16:50.289 a strong track record. And what about the Republican 00:16:50.289 --> 00:16:52.950 primary? Is he facing any serious challengers? 00:16:53.529 --> 00:16:56.570 Well, he's polling at around 40%, which is pretty 00:16:56.570 --> 00:16:58.830 good. Okay, so he's the frontrunner. Yeah, but 00:16:58.830 --> 00:17:00.629 the general election is gonna be a whole different 00:17:00.629 --> 00:17:02.909 ballgame. Right, because now he has a voting 00:17:02.909 --> 00:17:05.390 record. Exactly. And the Democrats are gonna 00:17:05.390 --> 00:17:07.869 use that against him, for sure. What kind of 00:17:07.869 --> 00:17:10.210 stuff has he voted for? Well, he's been... Pretty 00:17:10.210 --> 00:17:12.630 much in line with Trump on everything. Oh, so 00:17:12.630 --> 00:17:14.490 that's not going to play well with moderates 00:17:14.490 --> 00:17:17.750 or independents. Probably not. And there are 00:17:17.750 --> 00:17:20.029 even reports that he's been avoiding town halls 00:17:20.029 --> 00:17:23.569 since Trump's second term started. That's never 00:17:23.569 --> 00:17:25.430 a good look. It makes him seem out of touch. 00:17:25.829 --> 00:17:27.329 Yeah. And it plays right into the Democrats' 00:17:27.670 --> 00:17:29.509 hands. Right. And his whole campaign message 00:17:29.509 --> 00:17:32.210 is basically throw the bums out. But isn't the 00:17:32.210 --> 00:17:34.369 current governor pretty popular? Yeah. Gretchen 00:17:34.369 --> 00:17:36.890 Whitmer has an approval rating of around 60 percent. 00:17:36.970 --> 00:17:38.890 OK, so that's not going to be an easy message 00:17:38.890 --> 00:17:41.349 to sell. Not at all. And what about Trump? How 00:17:41.349 --> 00:17:44.349 is that association going to play in 2026? That's 00:17:44.349 --> 00:17:46.730 a big question, Mark. If Trump's popularity takes 00:17:46.730 --> 00:17:49.490 a nosedive, it could really hurt James. Yeah, 00:17:49.670 --> 00:17:51.970 that's a risk he's taking. And who are the Democrats 00:17:51.970 --> 00:17:54.529 running? Well, it's a crowded field, but they're 00:17:54.529 --> 00:17:57.490 all pretty strong candidates. Any names we would 00:17:57.490 --> 00:18:00.730 recognize? Jocelyn Benson is the likely frontrunner. 00:18:00.910 --> 00:18:02.710 OK, I've heard of her. She's the secretary of 00:18:02.710 --> 00:18:05.950 state. Right, right. And... The article makes 00:18:05.950 --> 00:18:08.529 this interesting point. What's that? You know 00:18:08.529 --> 00:18:11.329 how people always assume that a black Republican 00:18:11.329 --> 00:18:14.049 candidate is a guaranteed win? Yeah, like there's 00:18:14.049 --> 00:18:16.109 some kind of magical unicorn. Right. Well, the 00:18:16.109 --> 00:18:18.069 article says that's not always true. Yeah, for 00:18:18.069 --> 00:18:20.569 every Tim Scott, there's a Herschel Walker. Exactly. 00:18:21.970 --> 00:18:24.509 And early polling shows James trailing Benson 00:18:24.509 --> 00:18:27.170 by a few points. So it's going to be a close 00:18:27.170 --> 00:18:30.049 race. It could be. But there's another wrinkle. 00:18:31.190 --> 00:18:33.599 Mike Duggan. Who's he? He's the former mayor 00:18:33.599 --> 00:18:35.619 of Detroit and he's running as an independent. 00:18:35.960 --> 00:18:38.339 Oh, wow. That could shake things up. He's currently 00:18:38.339 --> 00:18:40.599 polling at around 18 percent. That's significant. 00:18:40.779 --> 00:18:44.400 It is. But historically, support for independent 00:18:44.400 --> 00:18:46.640 candidates tends to fade as the election gets 00:18:46.640 --> 00:18:49.740 closer. So those votes could end up going to 00:18:49.740 --> 00:18:52.910 Benson. It's possible. So. This race is going 00:18:52.910 --> 00:18:55.329 to be one to watch. It's going to be a real nail 00:18:55.329 --> 00:18:57.289 -biter. OK, so let's head down to Texas now. 00:18:57.450 --> 00:18:59.430 OK, what's happening there? Well, there's a vacant 00:18:59.430 --> 00:19:01.730 house seat in the 18th congressional district. 00:19:01.890 --> 00:19:04.690 Why is it vacant? The representative, Sylvester 00:19:04.690 --> 00:19:08.349 Turner, passed away. Oh, that's sad. It is. So 00:19:08.349 --> 00:19:10.329 they need to hold a special election to fill 00:19:10.329 --> 00:19:13.190 the seat. Right. That makes sense. But the timing 00:19:13.190 --> 00:19:16.900 of this election is a little... Oh, suspicious. 00:19:17.180 --> 00:19:18.960 What do you mean? Governor Abbott, he usually 00:19:18.960 --> 00:19:21.380 moves pretty quickly to schedule special elections. 00:19:21.440 --> 00:19:23.700 Okay. Even when the district is likely to be 00:19:23.700 --> 00:19:26.420 won by a Democrat. So he's not playing partisan 00:19:26.420 --> 00:19:31.259 games? Not usually. But this time, he set the 00:19:31.259 --> 00:19:34.319 election for November 4th. November 4th? That's 00:19:34.319 --> 00:19:36.819 ages away. I know, right? It means the seat will 00:19:36.819 --> 00:19:39.400 be empty for eight months. So what's the deal? 00:19:39.480 --> 00:19:42.880 Why the delay? Well, the article strongly implies 00:19:42.880 --> 00:19:45.990 that it's all about helping the Republicans keep 00:19:45.990 --> 00:19:48.890 their slim majority in the House. Hmm, I see. 00:19:49.390 --> 00:19:52.349 They need every vote they can get. Exactly. And 00:19:52.349 --> 00:19:54.509 if Abbott had scheduled the elections sooner, 00:19:55.009 --> 00:19:57.549 it could have been held on May 5th, which is 00:19:57.549 --> 00:20:00.990 the Texas primary day. So he's intentionally 00:20:00.990 --> 00:20:04.309 dragging his feet. It seems like it. And the 00:20:04.309 --> 00:20:06.450 Democrats are not happy about it. I bet not. 00:20:06.650 --> 00:20:08.940 They're even talking about suing, but... You 00:20:08.940 --> 00:20:11.400 know, it's Texas. Yeah, not exactly a friendly 00:20:11.400 --> 00:20:13.740 environment for Democrats. The article says their 00:20:13.740 --> 00:20:16.660 chances of winning in court are pretty much zero. 00:20:17.279 --> 00:20:19.319 So the Republicans get to keep their extra seat 00:20:19.319 --> 00:20:22.319 for a while longer. Looks like it. OK, so let's 00:20:22.319 --> 00:20:25.099 wrap up with those hands -off protests. Yeah, 00:20:25.119 --> 00:20:26.799 these are interesting. A lot of your listeners 00:20:26.799 --> 00:20:28.559 send in reports about these protests, right? 00:20:28.599 --> 00:20:30.160 Tons. It seems like they're happening all over 00:20:30.160 --> 00:20:32.400 the place, especially in swing states. And what's 00:20:32.400 --> 00:20:35.089 the main message? What are they protesting? It's 00:20:35.089 --> 00:20:37.089 kind of a bad message, but it's basically about 00:20:37.089 --> 00:20:38.950 pushing back against the Trump administration 00:20:38.950 --> 00:20:42.869 and its policies. So a general sense of dissatisfaction 00:20:42.869 --> 00:20:45.069 with the direction things are going. Yeah. And 00:20:45.069 --> 00:20:46.910 they're trying to get the attention of elected 00:20:46.910 --> 00:20:50.230 officials, even Republicans, and maybe even the 00:20:50.230 --> 00:20:52.869 Supreme Court. So a call for action. Exactly. 00:20:52.990 --> 00:20:55.549 Yeah. And what's really striking is the turnout. 00:20:55.609 --> 00:20:58.589 Oh, yeah. They're getting huge crowds, even in 00:20:58.589 --> 00:21:01.269 places that are usually deep red. Wow. So it's 00:21:01.269 --> 00:21:03.849 not just the usual suspects. Nope. It seems like 00:21:03.849 --> 00:21:06.190 a lot of people are fed up. That's significant. 00:21:06.329 --> 00:21:08.410 Yeah. There was this one report from Watertown, 00:21:08.549 --> 00:21:11.269 Wisconsin. OK. It's a small town, population 00:21:11.269 --> 00:21:15.430 25 ,000, very Republican. Yeah. 175 people showed 00:21:15.430 --> 00:21:17.769 up for the protest. That's a pretty good turnout 00:21:17.769 --> 00:21:19.930 for a small town. Right. And then in Milwaukee, 00:21:20.029 --> 00:21:22.289 there was a massive rally. Milwaukee, that's 00:21:22.289 --> 00:21:24.589 a democratic stronghold. It is. But even so, 00:21:24.690 --> 00:21:26.990 the turnout was impressive. So people are fired 00:21:26.990 --> 00:21:28.910 up, even in places where you'd expect them to 00:21:28.910 --> 00:21:32.190 be more supportive of Trump. Exactly. And then 00:21:32.190 --> 00:21:35.049 there's Minnesota. What happened there? Well, 00:21:35.250 --> 00:21:38.230 Senator Klobuchar, she flew back from D .C. to 00:21:38.230 --> 00:21:40.970 speak at a rally in St. Paul. So she's taking 00:21:40.970 --> 00:21:43.170 this seriously. Yeah. And the crowd was estimated 00:21:43.170 --> 00:21:46.829 at 25 ,000 people. That's huge. It is. And we 00:21:46.829 --> 00:21:48.789 even got a report from someone who took their 00:21:48.789 --> 00:21:51.769 elderly parents to their first ever political 00:21:51.769 --> 00:21:54.769 rally. Wow, that's amazing. Right. And in North 00:21:54.769 --> 00:21:57.849 Carolina, there was a smaller protest in a very 00:21:57.849 --> 00:22:01.289 red county. OK. But even there, people were honking 00:22:01.289 --> 00:22:04.089 their horns in support. So even in Trump country, 00:22:04.170 --> 00:22:06.730 there's some sympathy for the protests. It seems 00:22:06.730 --> 00:22:09.829 like it. We also got a picture from a rally in 00:22:09.829 --> 00:22:12.849 Las Vegas. Las Vegas, that's a key swing state. 00:22:12.890 --> 00:22:15.700 It is. And what about Pennsylvania? Oh, they're 00:22:15.700 --> 00:22:18.200 having some big protests there, too. Where specifically? 00:22:18.299 --> 00:22:20.019 Well, there was one in this small borough with 00:22:20.019 --> 00:22:22.559 a population of 20 ,000, and they had several 00:22:22.559 --> 00:22:24.720 thousand protesters. That's more than 10 % of 00:22:24.720 --> 00:22:27.880 the population. I know, right? And then in Lancaster, 00:22:28.000 --> 00:22:30.579 which is this really conservative city. And Caster. 00:22:30.720 --> 00:22:32.480 Yeah, I've heard of it. They had over a thousand 00:22:32.480 --> 00:22:34.759 people at their protest, and it spilled out into 00:22:34.759 --> 00:22:37.859 the streets. So even in deep red areas, people 00:22:37.859 --> 00:22:40.039 are turning out in large numbers. It's pretty 00:22:40.039 --> 00:22:42.849 amazing. And what about... the people at these 00:22:42.849 --> 00:22:46.430 protests? Are they all the usual liberal activists? 00:22:46.930 --> 00:22:48.509 That's the thing. It seems like it's a really 00:22:48.509 --> 00:22:51.210 diverse crowd. Interesting. There's this one 00:22:51.210 --> 00:22:53.410 quote from a listener in Lancaster who said, 00:22:54.250 --> 00:22:57.250 even the introverts are out right now. Wow, that's 00:22:57.250 --> 00:23:00.029 powerful. Right. It shows just how strongly people 00:23:00.029 --> 00:23:02.369 feel about this. So what's the end game here? 00:23:03.029 --> 00:23:05.809 What are these protesters hoping to achieve? 00:23:06.450 --> 00:23:08.630 Well, they're trying to change public opinion, 00:23:08.630 --> 00:23:11.750 and put pressure on politicians, including Republicans, 00:23:12.190 --> 00:23:14.089 and even on the Supreme Court. So they're trying 00:23:14.089 --> 00:23:16.509 to create a movement. Yeah, a movement that's 00:23:16.509 --> 00:23:19.529 big enough and loud enough that it can't be ignored. 00:23:19.750 --> 00:23:22.829 That's ambitious. It is. But if they can keep 00:23:22.829 --> 00:23:24.670 up this momentum... They might actually have 00:23:24.670 --> 00:23:27.289 a chance. You never know. It's definitely something 00:23:27.289 --> 00:23:30.710 to keep an eye on. So that's it for our deep 00:23:30.710 --> 00:23:34.640 dive into April 8th. 2025. We covered a lot of 00:23:34.640 --> 00:23:37.099 ground today. We did. We talked about trade wars, 00:23:37.279 --> 00:23:40.319 the Supreme Court, military parades, elections 00:23:40.319 --> 00:23:42.980 and protests. It's a whirlwind tour of American 00:23:42.980 --> 00:23:46.339 politics. It is and really shows how interconnected 00:23:46.339 --> 00:23:48.660 everything is. Yeah. One thing affects another 00:23:48.660 --> 00:23:51.119 and it all just keeps spinning faster and faster. 00:23:51.839 --> 00:23:56.140 Exactly. So with all of that in mind, with all 00:23:56.140 --> 00:23:58.500 the uncertainty and the chaos and the division 00:23:58.500 --> 00:24:01.400 that we've talked about today. What do you think 00:24:01.400 --> 00:24:04.220 is the biggest challenge facing the country right 00:24:04.220 --> 00:24:08.960 now? That's a really tough question. But I think, 00:24:09.220 --> 00:24:12.220 more than anything else, we need to find a way 00:24:12.220 --> 00:24:14.440 to talk to each other again. What do you mean? 00:24:14.720 --> 00:24:17.059 I mean really talk, not just shout at each other 00:24:17.059 --> 00:24:20.059 from across the political divide. I see. We need 00:24:20.059 --> 00:24:22.380 to find common ground. We need to listen to each 00:24:22.380 --> 00:24:24.180 other. We need to understand where the other 00:24:24.180 --> 00:24:26.779 side is coming from. That's a tall order in this 00:24:26.779 --> 00:24:29.619 current climate. It is, but it's absolutely essential. 00:24:29.700 --> 00:24:31.460 If we want to solve any of the problems we're 00:24:31.460 --> 00:24:33.880 facing. Exactly. So that's a great place to end. 00:24:34.099 --> 00:24:35.660 Yeah. Thanks for having me. Thanks for joining 00:24:35.660 --> 00:24:38.339 us. And to all our listeners out there, keep 00:24:38.339 --> 00:24:40.599 those sources coming, and we'll see you next 00:24:40.599 --> 00:24:43.660 time for another deep dive. Until then. Stay 00:24:43.660 --> 00:24:45.680 informed, stay engaged, and stay curious.