Welcome back, everyone. It's time for another
deep dive. Yeah. And this time, we are going
to take a look at all the stuff that you sent
our way from April 8th, 2025. Yeah. So yeah,
we've got a lot to cover today. I mean, just
glancing through it, we've got the trade war,
of course, which never seems to really go away.
Right. And then there's some interesting stuff
happening at the Supreme Court. Looks like we
might be getting another attempt at a military
parade. Oh. Yeah, and a gubernatorial race heating
up in Michigan Okay, some well questionable timing
for a special election down in Texas Interesting
and then all this buzz around these hands -off
protests and a bunch of swing states. Yeah, I
noticed that in the sources Yeah, so lots to
dig into as always. We'll try to pull out like
the the most important insights So you don't
have to wait through pages and pages of this
stuff, right? so why don't we just jump right
in sure and I guess the most logical place to
start would be with the trade war. I mean, it's
front and center in a lot of these articles.
Yeah, for sure. The markets reaction yesterday
kind of sums it up. I mean, the Dow dropped almost
a full percentage point, .91%, to be exact. And
the S &P 500 wasn't much better, down .23%. NASDAQ
actually managed to go up a little bit, .10%.
Oh, interesting. But yeah, I mean, this whole
thing with the tariffs and the market just freaking
out every time there's any news, it's like a
broken record at this point. It's exhausting.
Yeah, it really is. And you know, it makes you
wonder what businesses are supposed to do. Right,
like how can you plan anything when the rules
of the game keep changing. Exactly. Exactly.
I mean, are they supposed to just constantly
be adjusting their supply chains and their pricing?
And consumers, too. Like, how do you budget when
you don't know what things are going to cost?
It's just a mess. It is. And speaking of messes,
there's this, well, this interesting tidbit that
I came across. It seems that President Trump
has now achieved a rather, let's say, unique
distinction. I'm intrigued. He is now the only
president to oversee three of the five fastest
10 percent drops in the stock market. Wow. Yeah.
So which ones are we talking about? Well, we've
got February 2020, of course. Right. And then
January, February 2018. And then this latest
one, February, March 2025. You know, it's that
speed that's really alarming, especially with
this most recent one. Like we're not even a full
term in and we're already seeing this kind of
volatility. And remember 2020? I mean, that drop
was incredibly fast. Right. Just eight days to
lose 10 percent. It's almost like a pattern.
It is. And then you start digging into the specifics
of these trade policies. And one of the articles
you sent, I mean, they just come right out and
say it dumber than dirt. Oh, wow. OK, strong
words. Yeah, they're talking about that whole
formula the White House is using to calculate
the tariffs. You know with the elasticity of
import demand of which they've decided to call
Epsilon and set it for right and then the elasticity
of import prices Which is Phi at a quarter. Okay.
So what's the problem with that? Well, the White
House spokesperson claimed that these two figures
Epsilon and Phi were basically cancel each other
out. Uh -huh Interesting. So they're saying like
The impact of one will be negated by the impact
of the other. Right, exactly. Yeah, I see where
this is going. But the American Enterprise Institute,
which the article refers to as actual professional
economists. Okay. Yeah, they definitely have
more credibility. They strongly disagree. Of
course. They're saying that that quarter value,
that's actually the elasticity of retail prices.
But the elasticity of imports is much, much higher.
Closer to .945, they say. So it's like comparing
apples and oranges. Exactly. And when you use
the correct value for imports, well, the AEI
found that the tariffs should actually be between
10 % and 14%. Which is significantly lower than
what we're seeing now. Yeah, it's a huge difference.
And it all comes down to bad data. Right. Like,
how can you make policy decisions when you're
working with the wrong numbers? It's mind -boggling.
It really is. And it's not just the think tanks
that are worried. The business community in Wall
Street, they're getting pretty vocal about all
of this, too. Hmm, makes sense. I mean, they're
the ones on the front lines. Yeah, Jamie Dimon,
the CEO of JP Morgan Chase. OK, yeah, he's a
big deal. He basically said straight up in his
annual shareholder letter that these tariffs
are going to make inflation worse. Yeah, it's
not surprising. Right. I mean, it's basic economics.
Tariffs make imports more expensive and those
costs get passed down to the consumer. Exactly.
Like a chain reaction. And then there's Ken Langone.
Who's that? He's the founder of Home Depot. Oh,
wow. OK. And he's actually a Trump supporter.
Interesting. But even he's calling the tariffs,
and I quote, bullshit. Oh, my. He even said he
doesn't understand the formula. If Ken Langone
doesn't get it, that says something. And it's
not just him. Stanley Druckenmiller and another
billionaire, also a Trump backer, he said he's
against any tariffs over 10%. And Bill Ackman.
Yet another billionaire, and you guess it, another
Trump supporter. OK, I'm sensing a theme here.
He's calling the tariffs a major policy error.
So even some of his closest allies are starting
to have serious doubts. It seems like it. That's
got to sting. Yeah. And then there's Elon Musk.
Ah, yes. The article calls him the donor. Uh
-huh. With good reason, I imagine. Yeah, well,
apparently he tried to talk Trump out of the
tariffs privately. Did it work? Nope. And then
he went public with his opposition. Oh, that's
gotta go over well. You know, Trump, he doesn't
take criticism well. Not at all. And it gets
even better. Musk and Peter Navarro, Trump's
trade advisor, they've been having this public
feud on social media. Oh, this is, I gotta hear.
Yeah, just trading insults back and forth. Yikes.
Musk called Navarro a car salesman because he
has a Harvard PhD. Oh, that's a good one. And
Navarro fired back, calling Musk just a car salesman.
Ouch. It's gotten pretty nasty. So much for taking
the high road. Right. And all of this has apparently
made things even worse between Trump and Musk.
I bet. And there's even talk that this whole
thing could speed up Musk's exit from DOGE. I
think it's Dogecoin, that cryptocurrency. No,
right, right. Yeah, Musk is really into that.
So, yeah, I mean, this trade war drama is even
spilling over into the crypto world. It's like
a soap opera at this point. It really is. And
speaking of drama, there's also pushback coming
from Capitol Hill. Oh, really? So - Congress
is finally stepping up. It seems like it. The
article points out that if all the Democrats
and independents in the Senate vote against the
tariffs, they would need 13 Republican votes
to overcome a filibuster on any bill that tries
to limit Trump's tariff authority. Right. And
then they'd need another seven Republican votes
to override a veto. Hmm. That's a tall order.
Yeah, they're not quite there yet. So how many
Republicans are actually on board with limiting
the tariffs? Well, there's this bill. The Trade
Review Act of 2025. OK. It would basically force
Congress to review any new tariffs before they
can go into effect. That makes sense. Checks
and balances and all that. Exactly. And it already
has seven Republican co -sponsors. Who are they?
Well, you've got Collins, Grassley, McConnell.
Ooh, McConnell. That's significant. Yeah. And
then Moran, Murkowski, Tillis, and Young. OK,
so a mix of usual suspects and some maybe less
predictable ones. Right. And then you can probably
add Rand Paul and Ted Cruz to that list. They're
pretty consistently anti -tariff. Yeah, true.
So the thinking is that if the tariffs start
really hurting the economy, we could see even
more Republicans joining the rebellion. That's
definitely something to watch. Oh, and there
was this crazy thing that happened yesterday
morning. What happened? This rumor started spreading
on X. You know, what used to be Twitter. Oh,
right, right. Anyway, the rumor was that Trump
was going to pause tariffs for 90 days for every
country except China. A temporary truce. Interesting.
Yeah, and it was supposed to, like, help with
negotiations or something. OK, that makes sense.
But get this. The Dow Jones jumped 1 ,000 points
in 10 minutes on this news. Wow. I know, right?
Yeah. But then, of course, it turned out to be
fake news, and all those gains disappeared just
as quickly. So much for that. Yeah. But it's
really interesting to see how quickly the market
reacted. It shows just how much uncertainty there
is around all of this. And how desperate people
are for some good news. Right. And actually,
there might be some actual news on that front,
not just rumors. Really? Yeah. Trump announced
that he might be willing to lower tariffs on
the EU if they agree to buy $350 billion worth
of American energy. Hmm. That's a lot of energy.
It is. And how would that even work? Yeah, that's
the thing. No one seems to know, not even people
in the administration. So more of a vague promise
than a concrete plan? Pretty much. Yeah. But
hey, at least he's talking about lowering tariffs,
right? I guess. Although on the other hand, he's
also threatened to increase tariffs on China
by another 50%. Yeah, so it's a mixed bag for
sure. It's hard to know what to make of it all.
And meanwhile, while all of this is happening,
you know, with the markets going up and down
and everyone freaking out about the trade war,
Trump is at Mar -a -Lago playing golf. Of course
he is. But he wasn't just playing, he was competing
in a tournament. Okay. Which he won, by the way.
I'm sure he let everyone know. Oh, absolutely.
He was bragging to reporters about it. That sounds
about right. And then he went on social media
with this, you know, typical Trump rant. Oh,
boy. What did he say? Don't be weak. Don't be
stupid. Don't be a panikin. A panikin? Is that
even a word? He seems to have invented it. Yeah.
He was basically saying, you know, be strong,
be courageous, be patient. Greatness is coming.
Hmm. It's a very different message than we're
hearing from the markets. Yeah. And the article,
they couldn't resist comparing it to FDR's fireside
chats. Oh, yeah. The calming reassurance in times
of crisis. Right. Very different vibe. You say
the least. OK. So let's move on from the trade
war for a bit and talk about what's happening
with the Supreme Court. OK. Sounds good. It's
been a pretty busy week for them with some interesting
rulings. Anything major? Well, there was a unanimous
decision that people facing deportation under
the Alien Enemies Act, they have to be given
a fair warning and a chance to fight their deportation
in court. OK, that seems fair. Due process and
all that. So good news for those facing deportation,
I guess. Well, not so fast. In another decision,
this one 5 -4, the court lifted the injunction
that was blocking the Alien Enemies Act. So back
to square one. Pretty much. And to make matters
worse, All those legal battles are now going
to happen in federal court in Texas. That's not
ideal. Texas courts tend to be a lot more sympathetic
to the Trump administration. So not looking good
for those challenging the deportations. It's
an uphill battle for sure. And it really shows
how much venue matters in these cases. Absolutely.
Like where the case is heard can have a huge
impact on the outcome. Totally. And then there's
this case with Kilmar Abrego -Garcia. Who's that?
He's the guy who was deported by mistake. By
mistake. Yeah. Even the administration admitted
they messed up. Wow. That's a pretty big mistake.
Yeah. So you'd think getting him back would be
a pretty straightforward thing. Right. But Chief
Justice Roberts, he extended the deadline for
Garcia's return. Why would he do that? He said
he wants more time for the Supreme Court to consider
the matter. Hmm. That's odd for such a seemingly
simple case. Yeah, it makes you wonder if there's
something else going on. Maybe some disagreement
among the justices. Could be. And then there's
this whole thing with the shadow docket. Shadow
docket? What's that? It's basically this emergency
docket the court uses to make quick decisions
without all the usual briefing and arguments.
OK, so like a shortcut. Yeah. And they used it
to grant relief to the Trump administration regarding
those teacher training grants. Oh, yeah, I remember
that. Those were the grants that Congress authorized
and then Trump tried to cancel. Right. And the
lower courts blocked him from doing that. So
Trump went to the Supreme Court. And they sided
with him using this shadow docket. Hmm. That's
concerning. Yeah, Justice Jackson. She wrote
a pretty scathing dissent. What did she say?
She basically argued that if this shadow docket
has become a way for certain people... And by
certain people, she means the Trump administration.
Right. To basically skip the line and get the
Supreme Court's opinion without going through
the normal process. Then they need to be honest
about that. I see her point. It's like they're
getting special treatment. Exactly. And it undermines
the whole idea of a fair and impartial judiciary.
Right. And in this specific case, the government
waited weeks before even asking the Supreme Court
to intervene. So it wasn't even that urgent.
Apparently not. Their main argument was that
the grant money might be given out before the
TRO expired. Hmm. That's a weak argument. Yeah.
And the Supreme Court just went along with it.
So basically, they signaled to the lower court.
that they think they made a mistake without even
bothering to hear the full arguments. Exactly.
And that's the problem with the Shattered Docket.
It's like they're making these big decisions
behind closed doors. Right. And it erodes public
trust in the court. Because it starts to look
like they're just doing favors for certain people.
Right. It makes them look biased, even if they're
not. OK, so let's take a break from all this
serious stuff and talk about something a little
lighter. Lighter. After all that. I'm not sure
that's possible. Well, how about a military parade?
Oh no, not that again. It's back. Apparently
Trump hasn't given up on the idea. You're kidding!
Nope. He still wants his big military parade.
But didn't they try to do this before? Yeah,
back in his first term. Right. And it got cancelled.
It did. It was going to be way too expensive,
like millions and millions of dollars. Yeah,
I remember that. And people were worried about
it damaging the streets. Plus, everyone thought
it was just a ridiculous idea. Right. And even
the Pentagon wasn't that keen on it. But he's
bringing it back. He is. It seems like some ideas
just never die. I guess not. So what's changed?
Why does he think he can pull it off this time?
Well, for one thing, he's even more authoritarian
now. That's not reassuring. And he's got all
these new appointees who are basically yes men.
OK, so less pushback from within the administration.
Right, like the current Secretary of Defense,
Pete Hegseth. Oh, yeah. He's a very different
type than Jim Mattis, who was the Secretary of
Defense during Trump's first term. Yeah, Mattis
was a lot more independent. Right. And he probably
would have pushed back against this parade idea.
But Higgs. He's just gonna go along with whatever
Trump wants. Pretty much. And when is this parade
supposed to happen? June 14th. June 14th. Is
the Army's 250th anniversary Trump's 79th birthday.
Oh of course, how convenient. Right, so they're
trying to sell it as a celebration of the Army,
but come on. It's totally a birthday parade for
Trump. Totally. The plan is to have this four
mile long parade route from the Pentagon to the
White House. Four mile - That's insane. It is.
And how much is this going to cost? An estimated
$125 million. You've got to be kidding. Nope,
that's the number. And I'm sure it'll be even
more in the end. Probably. And can you imagine
the optics of this? A huge military parade right
down Pennsylvania Avenue. It's like it's something
out of North Korea. Or Mussolini's Italy. The
article says that the Democrats and the media
are going to have a field day with this. Oh,
for sure. It's gonna be a huge PR disaster. It's
hard to see how it could be anything else. There
are still some hurdles though. First of all,
they only have ten weeks to pull this off. Ten
weeks? To organize a massive military parade?
Yeah, good luck with that. It's a logistical
nightmare. Right. And then there's the fact that
they need Congress to approve the funding. Oh,
right, the $125 million. And that's not going
to be easy. Especially with all the other controversies
swirling around. Yeah, but if Trump really wants
this parade, I wouldn't put it past him to find
a way. I guess we'll have to wait and see. OK,
so let's shift gears again and talk about some
actual elections. OK, finally. In Michigan, John
James has thrown his hat into the ring for the
2026 gubernatorial race. John James, the guy
who lost those two Senate races. The one and
only. So why is he running for governor? Well,
it seems his current house seat isn't as safe
as he'd like. What do you mean? Well, it's in
Michigan's 10th congressional district, which
is rated R plus three. So it leans Republican,
but not by much. Right, and with the possibility
of a blue wave in the next election, I see. He
might be worried about losing. So governor is
a safer bet. Maybe, but it's still gonna be a
tough race. Especially since he's already lost
two statewide elections. Yeah, it's not exactly
a strong track record. And what about the Republican
primary? Is he facing any serious challengers?
Well, he's polling at around 40%, which is pretty
good. Okay, so he's the frontrunner. Yeah, but
the general election is gonna be a whole different
ballgame. Right, because now he has a voting
record. Exactly. And the Democrats are gonna
use that against him, for sure. What kind of
stuff has he voted for? Well, he's been... Pretty
much in line with Trump on everything. Oh, so
that's not going to play well with moderates
or independents. Probably not. And there are
even reports that he's been avoiding town halls
since Trump's second term started. That's never
a good look. It makes him seem out of touch.
Yeah. And it plays right into the Democrats'
hands. Right. And his whole campaign message
is basically throw the bums out. But isn't the
current governor pretty popular? Yeah. Gretchen
Whitmer has an approval rating of around 60 percent.
OK, so that's not going to be an easy message
to sell. Not at all. And what about Trump? How
is that association going to play in 2026? That's
a big question, Mark. If Trump's popularity takes
a nosedive, it could really hurt James. Yeah,
that's a risk he's taking. And who are the Democrats
running? Well, it's a crowded field, but they're
all pretty strong candidates. Any names we would
recognize? Jocelyn Benson is the likely frontrunner.
OK, I've heard of her. She's the secretary of
state. Right, right. And... The article makes
this interesting point. What's that? You know
how people always assume that a black Republican
candidate is a guaranteed win? Yeah, like there's
some kind of magical unicorn. Right. Well, the
article says that's not always true. Yeah, for
every Tim Scott, there's a Herschel Walker. Exactly.
And early polling shows James trailing Benson
by a few points. So it's going to be a close
race. It could be. But there's another wrinkle.
Mike Duggan. Who's he? He's the former mayor
of Detroit and he's running as an independent.
Oh, wow. That could shake things up. He's currently
polling at around 18 percent. That's significant.
It is. But historically, support for independent
candidates tends to fade as the election gets
closer. So those votes could end up going to
Benson. It's possible. So. This race is going
to be one to watch. It's going to be a real nail
-biter. OK, so let's head down to Texas now.
OK, what's happening there? Well, there's a vacant
house seat in the 18th congressional district.
Why is it vacant? The representative, Sylvester
Turner, passed away. Oh, that's sad. It is. So
they need to hold a special election to fill
the seat. Right. That makes sense. But the timing
of this election is a little... Oh, suspicious.
What do you mean? Governor Abbott, he usually
moves pretty quickly to schedule special elections.
Okay. Even when the district is likely to be
won by a Democrat. So he's not playing partisan
games? Not usually. But this time, he set the
election for November 4th. November 4th? That's
ages away. I know, right? It means the seat will
be empty for eight months. So what's the deal?
Why the delay? Well, the article strongly implies
that it's all about helping the Republicans keep
their slim majority in the House. Hmm, I see.
They need every vote they can get. Exactly. And
if Abbott had scheduled the elections sooner,
it could have been held on May 5th, which is
the Texas primary day. So he's intentionally
dragging his feet. It seems like it. And the
Democrats are not happy about it. I bet not.
They're even talking about suing, but... You
know, it's Texas. Yeah, not exactly a friendly
environment for Democrats. The article says their
chances of winning in court are pretty much zero.
So the Republicans get to keep their extra seat
for a while longer. Looks like it. OK, so let's
wrap up with those hands -off protests. Yeah,
these are interesting. A lot of your listeners
send in reports about these protests, right?
Tons. It seems like they're happening all over
the place, especially in swing states. And what's
the main message? What are they protesting? It's
kind of a bad message, but it's basically about
pushing back against the Trump administration
and its policies. So a general sense of dissatisfaction
with the direction things are going. Yeah. And
they're trying to get the attention of elected
officials, even Republicans, and maybe even the
Supreme Court. So a call for action. Exactly.
Yeah. And what's really striking is the turnout.
Oh, yeah. They're getting huge crowds, even in
places that are usually deep red. Wow. So it's
not just the usual suspects. Nope. It seems like
a lot of people are fed up. That's significant.
Yeah. There was this one report from Watertown,
Wisconsin. OK. It's a small town, population
25 ,000, very Republican. Yeah. 175 people showed
up for the protest. That's a pretty good turnout
for a small town. Right. And then in Milwaukee,
there was a massive rally. Milwaukee, that's
a democratic stronghold. It is. But even so,
the turnout was impressive. So people are fired
up, even in places where you'd expect them to
be more supportive of Trump. Exactly. And then
there's Minnesota. What happened there? Well,
Senator Klobuchar, she flew back from D .C. to
speak at a rally in St. Paul. So she's taking
this seriously. Yeah. And the crowd was estimated
at 25 ,000 people. That's huge. It is. And we
even got a report from someone who took their
elderly parents to their first ever political
rally. Wow, that's amazing. Right. And in North
Carolina, there was a smaller protest in a very
red county. OK. But even there, people were honking
their horns in support. So even in Trump country,
there's some sympathy for the protests. It seems
like it. We also got a picture from a rally in
Las Vegas. Las Vegas, that's a key swing state.
It is. And what about Pennsylvania? Oh, they're
having some big protests there, too. Where specifically?
Well, there was one in this small borough with
a population of 20 ,000, and they had several
thousand protesters. That's more than 10 % of
the population. I know, right? And then in Lancaster,
which is this really conservative city. And Caster.
Yeah, I've heard of it. They had over a thousand
people at their protest, and it spilled out into
the streets. So even in deep red areas, people
are turning out in large numbers. It's pretty
amazing. And what about... the people at these
protests? Are they all the usual liberal activists?
That's the thing. It seems like it's a really
diverse crowd. Interesting. There's this one
quote from a listener in Lancaster who said,
even the introverts are out right now. Wow, that's
powerful. Right. It shows just how strongly people
feel about this. So what's the end game here?
What are these protesters hoping to achieve?
Well, they're trying to change public opinion,
and put pressure on politicians, including Republicans,
and even on the Supreme Court. So they're trying
to create a movement. Yeah, a movement that's
big enough and loud enough that it can't be ignored.
That's ambitious. It is. But if they can keep
up this momentum... They might actually have
a chance. You never know. It's definitely something
to keep an eye on. So that's it for our deep
dive into April 8th. 2025. We covered a lot of
ground today. We did. We talked about trade wars,
the Supreme Court, military parades, elections
and protests. It's a whirlwind tour of American
politics. It is and really shows how interconnected
everything is. Yeah. One thing affects another
and it all just keeps spinning faster and faster.
Exactly. So with all of that in mind, with all
the uncertainty and the chaos and the division
that we've talked about today. What do you think
is the biggest challenge facing the country right
now? That's a really tough question. But I think,
more than anything else, we need to find a way
to talk to each other again. What do you mean?
I mean really talk, not just shout at each other
from across the political divide. I see. We need
to find common ground. We need to listen to each
other. We need to understand where the other
side is coming from. That's a tall order in this
current climate. It is, but it's absolutely essential.
If we want to solve any of the problems we're
facing. Exactly. So that's a great place to end.
Yeah. Thanks for having me. Thanks for joining
us. And to all our listeners out there, keep
those sources coming, and we'll see you next
time for another deep dive. Until then. Stay
informed, stay engaged, and stay curious.