WEBVTT

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Okay, so we've got this pretty hefty pile of

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news and analysis to go through today. It's quite

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a bit. And it's all centered around April 7th,

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2025. So I guess our mission today is to try

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to sift through all of this and extract the key

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insights. Yeah, for sure. I mean, there's a lot

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going on. So we got to give our listeners a clear

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understanding of what's happening and why it

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all matters. Yeah, exactly. So it looks like

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we're going to be looking at a lot of different

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things. We are. Yeah, you've assembled quite

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a snapshot here of a pretty active period, let's

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say. Yeah. We're going to be talking about some

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pretty significant economic shifts. A lot of

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this is driven by these new trade policies that

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are being put into place. And we'll also be looking

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at changes in leadership in the cyber defense

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arena. Some pretty widespread public protests

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that are happening. Some interesting maneuvers

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in the Senate regarding the budget. A concerning

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measles outbreak that's happening and it looks

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like there are cuts to vaccine funding that are

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coinciding with this. An ongoing election challenge

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in North Carolina. The reaction of law firms

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to the administration. Judicial pushback against

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some of the executive actions. Early Senate polling

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data coming out of New York. and even some updates

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to the House political maps. Wow, okay, so a

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lot on our plates today. A lot going on, but

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the goal isn't to overwhelm anyone. No, absolutely

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not. Right, it's more about... Trying to connect

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the dots. Exactly, connecting the dots between

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all these seemingly separate events and highlighting

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the potential significance of each of these events

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and how they might be connected, really giving

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people... A clear, concise picture. Exactly,

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a clear, concise picture. That's actually going

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on. Exactly. Okay, so let's start unpacking all

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of this, maybe starting with the economic picture.

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Okay, sure. So the source material kind of paints

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a pretty stark picture right off the bat when

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it comes to the financial markets. Okay. The

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Dow Jones has taken a pretty significant downturn.

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You know, it's almost 15 % off of its yearly

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high at this point. Wow. And there's been a massive

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loss in just two days. About $6 trillion just

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wiped out. Oh, wow. In just two days. In two

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days. Yeah. This is being described as the worst

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week for the market since we saw that pandemic

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-induced volatility back in 2020. Oh, that makes

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sense. And what's really fascinating here is

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that, you know, The sources are really drawing

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a direct connection between this market downturn

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and the administration's trade policies. Right,

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yeah. The analysis we have really doesn't mince

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words, does it? No, it doesn't. Pretty bold.

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Yeah, it's pretty bold. It basically argues that

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this is the end of the post -World War II free

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trade system, you know, as we know it, and that

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it's being replaced with what's described as

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this kind of like 18th century idea, this thing

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called mercantilism. Mercantilism. Yeah, and

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I'll be honest, I wasn't really that familiar

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with that term. It's not one you hear every day.

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Yeah, no, it's not something you hear every day,

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so I had to like look it up, you know? Right.

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And the basic idea seems to be that Like, a country's

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wealth is measured by its gold reserves, and

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the way to get more gold is to export way more

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than you import. Basically, you want to hoard

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all the gold. Right, like accumulate as much

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as you can. Exactly, yeah. It's like this really,

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I don't know, it seems very outdated. Yeah, it's

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interesting because the source even quotes...

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you know, someone saying like, no serious economist

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has believed in this theory in well over 100

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years. Right, it is this kind of blast from the

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past. It is, yeah, and I think that's what makes

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it so fascinating. Yeah. You know, because it's

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like... You don't really expect to see these

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kind of ideas resurfacing in the 21st century.

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Right, and it's even more interesting when you

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start to connect it to the bigger picture. that

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the source is trying to paint about the state

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of the US economy. Right, because the picture

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that's being presented is really quite different

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from how it's often portrayed. It is, yeah. You

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hear a lot of talk about a poor, hollowed out

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America, right? Right, yeah, that's kind of the,

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you know, a nation in decline. The common narrative.

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Yeah, but the data that's presented here suggests

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a different story. Totally different. Right,

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it says that the US economy has actually doubled

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the growth of the Eurozone since 2008. Yeah,

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that's a pretty significant difference. It is,

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yeah. And then you see that US wages are actually

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significantly higher than in other advanced economies.

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Yeah. I mean, think about that for a second.

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Yeah. I'm not just talking about a little bit

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higher. We're talking significantly higher. Yeah.

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Yeah, it's a big gap. Big gap. And then they

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even highlight the fact that even a state like

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Mississippi, which often gets kind of a bad rap,

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economically speaking, actually has a higher

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per capita GDP than countries like the UK or

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France. Right. It kind of flips the script a

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little bit, doesn't it? Yeah, it really does.

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You have to wonder then if the problem that this

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new trade policy is trying to solve is actually,

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you know... Is it even a real problem? Yeah,

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it makes you question the diagnosis, right? Exactly.

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Is the diagnosis of the economic problem even

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accurate to begin with? Right. Are we actually

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as bad off as they're saying we are? Exactly.

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And I think that's what makes this whole thing

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so interesting, you know? Absolutely. Because

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you have this, like, underlying assumption about

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the weakness of the US economy that might not

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even be true. And then you have this radical

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shift in trade policy that's being based on that

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assumption. Exactly. And that's where things

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get really interesting, I think, because the

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sources then point out this major oversight in

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this whole mercantilist approach. Oh, yeah. What's

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that? It seems like they're completely missing

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the huge US surplus in services. Services. What

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do you mean by that? Things like software development,

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financial services, cloud computing. Oh, so the

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things you can't really touch. Exactly. These

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less tangible exports. Right. But they add up

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to a massive surplus over a trillion dollars

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annually. Wow, that's huge. It is. It's a massive

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part of our economic strength. OK, so it's like

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they're so focused on. you know, physical goods

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and manufacturing. Pretty neat. Yeah, that they're

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completely missing this, like, giant and expanding

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part of the economy. Right, it's like looking

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at one side of the ledger and ignoring the other.

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Right, so while the rhetoric is focused on, you

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know, the struggling manufacturing sector, the

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data is actually telling us that there's this

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powerful and growing service economy. Exactly.

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And that's a fundamental mismatch between perception

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and reality. Yeah, it really is. And that might

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be the biggest flaw in this whole, you know,

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new trade doctrine. It could be. Yeah. I mean,

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the potential consequences of these policies

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are pretty concerning. In what way? Well, for

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example, the sources highlight agriculture as

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being particularly vulnerable. Agriculture? Why

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agriculture? Well, because of retaliatory tariffs

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from other countries. Oh, right. Of course. You

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know, they put tariffs on our goods. Other countries

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are going to retaliate. Tit for tat. Exactly.

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And agriculture is often a prime target. Right.

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Yeah. I remember all those farm bailouts during

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the last administration. Exactly. And now you've

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got higher inflation, higher interest rates.

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It's just a recipe for economic hardship in that

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sector. Right. It's like American farmers are

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caught in the middle. They are. Yeah. They're

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potentially losing access to these crucial international

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markets. They're facing higher costs at home.

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It's a tough situation and on top of all that

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the Federal Reserve's getting worried, too Oh,

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really? What are they concerned about inflation?

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You know, they're saying these tariffs are just

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gonna fuel inflation even more. Oh, that makes

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sense Yeah, and the concern is that this could

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force the Fed to raise interest rates Oh to try

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and cool things down Exactly, but then that increases

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the risk of tipping the economy into a recession,

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right? It's a tough balancing act. Yeah, so you've

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got this like double whammy of potential Yeah,

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you've got the direct impact on specific sectors

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like agriculture. Right. And then you've got

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this broader macroeconomic risk of inflation

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and recession. And then you bring in the whole

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specter of stagflation. Stagflation. Yeah, that's

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what they're calling it. It's like. That's a

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scary word. It is. It's a scary word. It's this

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combination of slow economic growth. Right. High

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unemployment and persistent inflation. Yeah.

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like the worst of all worlds. It really is, and

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they're even drawing comparisons to the 1970s,

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you know? Oh, wow, the Ford and Carter years.

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Exactly, when the economy was just a mess. Right,

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so it's like they're saying we could be headed

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back to that. Yeah, potentially. And the thing

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is, back then, there was at least like an external

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shock, you know? Like the oil crisis. Right,

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something you could point to and say, OK, that's

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what caused it. Right. But now it's like, we're

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doing this to ourselves. We're creating our own

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problems. Yeah, it's pretty wild. It is. And

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when you start talking about tariffs and the

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cost of imported goods, there's another potential

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consequence that we have to consider. What's

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that? Smuggling. Smuggling? What do you mean?

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Well, think about it. If these tariffs make imported

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goods significantly more expensive, what's going

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to happen? Well, people are going to try to find

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a way around them. Exactly. And one way to do

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that is to smuggle goods across the border. Right.

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So you're saying, like, if a product that used

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to cost, let's say, $1 ,000 suddenly costs $1

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,500 because of tariffs, people are going to

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try to find a way to get it for that original

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price. Exactly. And if it's still available at

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that price in another country, there's a huge

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incentive to bring it in illegally. Right. So

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you're saying we could see, like, a modern day

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version of prohibition. it's not entirely out

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of the realm of possibility. Wow, that's kind

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of crazy. It is, and it raises this question

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of, you know, are these tariffs actually going

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to achieve what they're intended to do? Right,

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because if they just lead to, like, a booming

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black market. Exactly. And lost tax revenue.

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Right, then what's the point? Yeah, it seems

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counterproductive. It does. And what's interesting

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is that some people within the Republican Party

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itself are starting to voice these concerns.

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Oh, really? Yeah, the article quotes Senators

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Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, and they're expressing

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some pretty serious worries about the potential

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economic and political fallout from these tariffs.

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Like, what kind of fallout? Well, they're talking

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about the possibility of a recession. OK. And

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they're also concerned about the impact on future

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elections. Oh, right. Because if the economy

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tanks. Exactly. Voters tend to punish the party

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in power. Yeah, that's usually how it goes. And

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Senator Paul even brings up some historical examples.

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What kind of examples? Well, he talks about times

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when high tariffs were implemented in the past.

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Oh. And he points out that the ruling party often

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suffered a major backlash at the polls. Oh, wow.

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So he's basically saying, like, look, we've been

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down this road before. Right. And it didn't end

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well. And it seems like he's trying to warn his

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own party. It does, yeah. It's like he's seeing

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the danger ahead, but doesn't know how to change

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course. It's like they're trapped in this, like,

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ideological echo chamber or something. It's possible.

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And it makes you wonder about the internal pressures

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that are at play. Right, like what's really driving

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these decisions. Exactly. And then there's the

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question of, you know, How much of this damage

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can be repaired down the line? Oh, right, because

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once you know, erode trust with your allies.

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It's hard to rebuild that. Yeah, it's not like

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you can just flip a switch and everything goes

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back to normal. No, it takes time and effort.

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And it's not even clear if it's possible to fully

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restore things. Right, it's like that quote from

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the European diplomat. What was that? They said,

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we can't have European security depend on the

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voters in Wisconsin every four years. Wow, that's

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pretty powerful. It is. It really highlights

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how much is at stake. It does, yeah. It's about

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more than just trade. It's about global stability

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and the credibility of the US as a reliable partner.

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Absolutely. OK, so we've talked about the economic

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picture. Let's shift gears now and talk about

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national security. OK. Because there are some

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pretty serious concerns being raised about America's

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cyber defenses. There are, yeah. And it seems

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like there's been a pretty significant shakeup

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at the top. Oh, really? What happened? Well,

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the head of the National Security Agency, General

00:12:16.029 --> 00:12:19.759
Timothy Hoff. and his deputy have reportedly

00:12:19.759 --> 00:12:22.419
been dismissed. Oh, wow. That's a big deal. It

00:12:22.419 --> 00:12:24.620
is. Yeah, and the reason being given for their

00:12:24.620 --> 00:12:28.759
removal is, uh, wow, it's pretty alarming. What

00:12:28.759 --> 00:12:30.399
is it? Apparently, it's due to the influence

00:12:30.399 --> 00:12:32.720
of a conspiracy theorist. A conspiracy theorist.

00:12:32.720 --> 00:12:34.740
Yeah. You're kidding. Nope. That's what's being

00:12:34.740 --> 00:12:36.960
reported. That's wild, and we're talking about

00:12:36.960 --> 00:12:39.480
the head of the NSA here. We are, and it's important

00:12:39.480 --> 00:12:42.190
to remember, you know... General Haas credentials.

00:12:42.230 --> 00:12:44.809
We're talking about a four -star Air Force general,

00:12:45.009 --> 00:12:47.090
right? The commander of cyber command, right?

00:12:47.190 --> 00:12:50.049
So this isn't some random guy No, this is a highly

00:12:50.049 --> 00:12:52.269
experienced and respected leader in the field

00:12:52.269 --> 00:12:54.470
and they're getting rid of him because of a conspiracy

00:12:54.470 --> 00:12:56.470
theorist That's the story that's circulating.

00:12:56.809 --> 00:12:59.970
It's Unbelievable. And this raises some really

00:12:59.970 --> 00:13:03.190
serious questions about, you know, the decision

00:13:03.190 --> 00:13:05.289
making process within the administration. For

00:13:05.289 --> 00:13:07.730
sure. Especially when you consider the absolutely

00:13:07.730 --> 00:13:11.110
crucial role that the NSA plays. Right. I mean,

00:13:11.110 --> 00:13:13.370
they're responsible for intelligence gathering,

00:13:13.590 --> 00:13:16.090
code breaking, protecting U .S. computer systems

00:13:16.090 --> 00:13:18.830
from attack. I mean, it's like it's a vital agency.

00:13:19.350 --> 00:13:22.230
Yeah. It's the front line of cyber defense. Exactly.

00:13:22.370 --> 00:13:24.649
And to have that leadership removed under these

00:13:24.649 --> 00:13:27.250
circumstances. Yeah. It's deeply concerning.

00:13:27.710 --> 00:13:31.110
And even Senator Mark Warner is quoted as expressing

00:13:31.110 --> 00:13:33.710
his concern. What does he say? Well, he specifically

00:13:33.710 --> 00:13:35.889
mentions the salt typhoon attack from China.

00:13:36.049 --> 00:13:38.190
The salt typhoon attack. Can you remind us about

00:13:38.190 --> 00:13:42.269
that? Yeah. So that was a significant cyber espionage

00:13:42.269 --> 00:13:44.710
campaign that was attributed to China. OK. And

00:13:44.710 --> 00:13:46.850
they managed to compromise some pretty sensitive

00:13:46.850 --> 00:13:49.289
data within the Justice Department. Wow. So it

00:13:49.289 --> 00:13:52.769
was a serious breach. It was. Yeah. It just highlights.

00:13:53.600 --> 00:13:56.419
the very real danger that the U .S. faces in

00:13:56.419 --> 00:13:59.519
cyberspace. Right. And so Senator Warner's point

00:13:59.519 --> 00:14:02.580
is that at a time when these threats are so real,

00:14:03.539 --> 00:14:06.679
how does firing the head of the NSA make anyone

00:14:06.679 --> 00:14:09.019
safer? Exactly. It's a pretty straightforward

00:14:09.019 --> 00:14:11.220
question. Yeah, it is. And it's a really troubling

00:14:11.220 --> 00:14:13.440
one. It is. And it's not the only concern that's

00:14:13.440 --> 00:14:15.460
being raised. What else is there? Well, there

00:14:15.460 --> 00:14:17.899
are also reports of budget cuts and staff reductions

00:14:17.899 --> 00:14:20.159
at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security

00:14:20.159 --> 00:14:23.750
Agency. CESA and they're responsible for they're

00:14:23.750 --> 00:14:25.490
the ones who are supposed to be protecting critical

00:14:25.490 --> 00:14:28.409
US infrastructure Okay, election systems from

00:14:28.409 --> 00:14:30.909
attack. So they're basically in charge of making

00:14:30.909 --> 00:14:33.649
sure our elections are secure among other things

00:14:33.649 --> 00:14:36.590
Okay, and representative Don Bacon who's a retired

00:14:36.590 --> 00:14:39.990
Air Force general himself Okay, he's quoted as

00:14:39.990 --> 00:14:42.250
saying that Russia and China are probably laughing

00:14:42.250 --> 00:14:45.750
at us right now. Oh, wow, that's harsh It is,

00:14:45.950 --> 00:14:47.830
but it kind of underscores the seriousness of

00:14:47.830 --> 00:14:50.049
the situation. Yeah, I mean if we're weakening

00:14:50.049 --> 00:14:52.789
these agencies at a time when cyber threats are

00:14:52.789 --> 00:14:54.710
increasing. Yeah, it seems incredibly risky.

00:14:54.870 --> 00:14:56.169
Yeah, it's like we're shooting ourselves in the

00:14:56.169 --> 00:14:58.549
foot. It does make you wonder, you know, who

00:14:58.549 --> 00:15:00.830
benefits from all of this? Right, who benefits

00:15:00.830 --> 00:15:04.210
from a weaker America. Exactly. And a less secure

00:15:04.210 --> 00:15:07.250
electoral system. It definitely raises some unsettling

00:15:07.250 --> 00:15:09.980
questions. It really does. OK, so let's move

00:15:09.980 --> 00:15:12.019
on now to a different kind of reaction that we're

00:15:12.019 --> 00:15:14.139
seeing to the administration's policies. OK.

00:15:14.419 --> 00:15:16.360
And that's the emergence of these widespread

00:15:16.360 --> 00:15:19.419
public protests. Oh, right. Yeah. It seems like

00:15:19.419 --> 00:15:21.279
the administration's actions have really stirred

00:15:21.279 --> 00:15:24.480
up a lot of opposition. Yeah. Our sources are

00:15:24.480 --> 00:15:27.460
reporting mass anti -Trump protests happening

00:15:27.460 --> 00:15:30.120
all across the US. Wow. They say there could

00:15:30.120 --> 00:15:33.559
be over 1 ,200 to 1 ,400 different locations.

00:15:34.239 --> 00:15:36.620
That's incredible. Yeah, and they're even seeing

00:15:36.620 --> 00:15:39.120
protests in international cities like London.

00:15:39.399 --> 00:15:41.480
So it's not just a domestic phenomenon. No, it

00:15:41.480 --> 00:15:43.460
seems like there's a global element to this as

00:15:43.460 --> 00:15:45.580
well. And it's interesting that these protests

00:15:45.580 --> 00:15:48.940
seem to be largely grassroots driven. You're

00:15:48.940 --> 00:15:50.340
right. Yeah, there's this group called Hands

00:15:50.340 --> 00:15:52.940
Off. Hands Off? Yeah, and they've provided like

00:15:52.940 --> 00:15:55.799
a toolkit, you know, with guidance and resources.

00:15:55.960 --> 00:15:58.649
OK. But the individual events themselves are

00:15:58.649 --> 00:16:00.789
being organized and carried out locally. It's

00:16:00.789 --> 00:16:02.950
very decentralized. It is, yeah. And they have

00:16:02.950 --> 00:16:05.669
three main demands. OK, what are they? First,

00:16:05.750 --> 00:16:08.649
they want to see an end to what they see as billionaire

00:16:08.649 --> 00:16:11.149
influence and corruption in government. OK, so

00:16:11.149 --> 00:16:12.710
they're concerned about the role of money in

00:16:12.710 --> 00:16:15.429
politics. Exactly. Then they want to halt to

00:16:15.429 --> 00:16:18.370
cuts in federal programs. OK, so protecting social

00:16:18.370 --> 00:16:20.960
safety net programs. Right. And finally, they

00:16:20.960 --> 00:16:23.539
want to see an end to attacks on marginalized

00:16:23.539 --> 00:16:26.139
communities. OK, so addressing issues of social

00:16:26.139 --> 00:16:28.240
justice and equality. Exactly. So you've got

00:16:28.240 --> 00:16:31.759
this multifaceted movement that's addressing

00:16:31.759 --> 00:16:34.679
economic issues, political issues, and social

00:16:34.679 --> 00:16:37.259
issues. Wow. That's a pretty broad coalition.

00:16:37.500 --> 00:16:40.659
It is. And the numbers at some of these demonstrations

00:16:40.659 --> 00:16:42.840
are really significant. Yeah. How big are we

00:16:42.840 --> 00:16:45.019
talking? Well, the piece mentions an estimated

00:16:45.019 --> 00:16:48.259
100 ,000 people gathered at the National Mall

00:16:48.259 --> 00:16:51.500
in Washington. DC. Wow, that's huge. Yeah, it's

00:16:51.500 --> 00:16:53.899
a lot of people. And it quotes Representative

00:16:53.899 --> 00:16:57.580
Jamie Raskin, who gave this really fiery speech.

00:16:57.779 --> 00:17:01.340
What did he say? He basically condemned the administration's

00:17:01.340 --> 00:17:04.259
policies. He specifically called out the tariffs

00:17:04.259 --> 00:17:07.339
as imbecilic, illegal, and unconstitutional.

00:17:07.599 --> 00:17:09.960
Wow, that's strong language. Yeah, it is. And

00:17:09.960 --> 00:17:12.099
it really shows you how much anger there is out

00:17:12.099 --> 00:17:15.079
there. Yeah. And while these protests might not

00:17:15.079 --> 00:17:17.380
immediately force the administration to change

00:17:17.380 --> 00:17:19.980
course. Right. they definitely serve a purpose.

00:17:20.000 --> 00:17:21.559
In what way? Well, first of all, they provide

00:17:21.559 --> 00:17:24.099
a morale boost, you know, for people who oppose

00:17:24.099 --> 00:17:25.920
the administration. Right. It's like, OK, we're

00:17:25.920 --> 00:17:28.599
not alone in this. Exactly. It's a show of solidarity.

00:17:28.599 --> 00:17:30.619
Yeah. And then perhaps even more importantly,

00:17:30.759 --> 00:17:32.980
they could serve as a warning sign. A warning

00:17:32.980 --> 00:17:35.299
sign to who? To Republican incumbents who are

00:17:35.299 --> 00:17:38.680
facing reelection in 2026. Oh, right. Because

00:17:38.680 --> 00:17:41.700
if the economy does take a downturn as predicted.

00:17:41.980 --> 00:17:45.039
Exactly. Voters might take out their frustration

00:17:45.039 --> 00:17:47.599
on the party in power. Yeah, and these protests

00:17:47.599 --> 00:17:49.599
could be an early indication of that It could

00:17:49.599 --> 00:17:51.220
be yeah, it's like a canary in the coal mine

00:17:51.220 --> 00:17:54.839
Okay, so protests as a potential harbinger of

00:17:54.839 --> 00:17:57.740
political change exactly Okay, so let's turn

00:17:57.740 --> 00:18:00.799
our attention now to the Senate and what's been

00:18:00.799 --> 00:18:02.779
happening with the federal budget Sure, so it

00:18:02.779 --> 00:18:05.859
looks like Senate Republicans have managed to

00:18:05.859 --> 00:18:08.640
pass their version of a budget framework. Okay,

00:18:08.779 --> 00:18:10.980
and how did that go down? Well, it was a pretty

00:18:10.980 --> 00:18:13.339
narrow victory. Okay. Not without some dissent

00:18:13.339 --> 00:18:15.400
within their own ranks. Oh, really? Who voted

00:18:15.400 --> 00:18:18.859
against it? Well, Senators Rand Paul and Susan

00:18:18.859 --> 00:18:21.140
Collins were among the Republicans who opposed

00:18:21.140 --> 00:18:23.779
it. Okay, so not a unified front. No, not at

00:18:23.779 --> 00:18:26.890
all. And Senate Democrats... knowing that their

00:18:26.890 --> 00:18:29.490
own amendments were unlikely to pass, they kind

00:18:29.490 --> 00:18:32.509
of strategically used the Votorama process. The

00:18:32.509 --> 00:18:34.950
Votorama process? Yes, this marathon voting session

00:18:34.950 --> 00:18:36.890
where they just vote on amendment after amendment.

00:18:36.950 --> 00:18:39.849
OK. And the Democrats used this to force Republicans

00:18:39.849 --> 00:18:44.450
to take public stances on some potentially unpopular

00:18:44.450 --> 00:18:47.470
things. Like what? Well, things related to Social

00:18:47.470 --> 00:18:49.549
Security, for example. OK. And of course, the

00:18:49.549 --> 00:18:51.549
proposed tariffs. So it was kind of like a political

00:18:51.549 --> 00:18:53.990
trap. In a way, yeah, they were trying to get

00:18:53.990 --> 00:18:55.930
Republicans on the record supporting things that

00:18:55.930 --> 00:18:58.329
might hurt them in the next election. I see.

00:18:58.369 --> 00:19:00.789
So it was more about political maneuvering than

00:19:00.789 --> 00:19:03.089
actual policy making? In this case, yeah, it's

00:19:03.089 --> 00:19:05.529
all part of the game. OK, so they managed to

00:19:05.529 --> 00:19:08.170
get this budget framework through, but there's

00:19:08.170 --> 00:19:10.769
this really controversial aspect to it. Oh, yeah.

00:19:10.829 --> 00:19:12.970
What's that? It's what they're calling magic

00:19:12.970 --> 00:19:16.859
accounting. Magic accounting? That sounds shady.

00:19:17.299 --> 00:19:20.200
It does a little bit. So basically the plan operates

00:19:20.200 --> 00:19:24.059
under the assumption that the 2017 tax cuts won't

00:19:24.059 --> 00:19:26.220
expire. Okay, but they're currently set to expire,

00:19:26.259 --> 00:19:28.920
right? Exactly. But this budget pretends like

00:19:28.920 --> 00:19:30.880
they're just gonna continue indefinitely. Oh,

00:19:30.880 --> 00:19:33.720
I see. So that allows them to project further

00:19:33.720 --> 00:19:36.380
tax cuts. Right. without it looking like they're

00:19:36.380 --> 00:19:38.140
increasing the deficit over the next 10 years.

00:19:38.579 --> 00:19:40.480
Exactly, but it's all based on this manipulated

00:19:40.480 --> 00:19:42.140
baseline. Yeah, it's like they're cooking the

00:19:42.140 --> 00:19:44.200
books a little bit. It kind of feels that way.

00:19:44.400 --> 00:19:48.220
And this whole thing is tied into a potentially

00:19:48.220 --> 00:19:52.400
really significant procedural move that Senator

00:19:52.400 --> 00:19:55.160
Lindsey Graham is considering. What's that? He's

00:19:55.160 --> 00:19:58.940
talking about trying to bypass the Senate parliamentarian.

00:19:59.000 --> 00:20:01.309
The parliamentarian, who's that? So that's Elizabeth

00:20:01.309 --> 00:20:03.289
McDonough, and she's basically the referee of

00:20:03.289 --> 00:20:06.490
the Senate. She's the one who decides whether

00:20:06.490 --> 00:20:09.009
specific provisions can be included in budget

00:20:09.009 --> 00:20:11.769
reconciliation bills. Budget reconciliation bills?

00:20:11.910 --> 00:20:14.049
Remind me what those are again. Sure. So basically

00:20:14.049 --> 00:20:16.730
those are bills that can be passed with a simple

00:20:16.730 --> 00:20:18.869
majority. They can't be filibustered. Right.

00:20:19.150 --> 00:20:20.789
And they're often used for budgetary matters.

00:20:21.089 --> 00:20:22.910
So the parliamentarian's job is to make sure

00:20:22.910 --> 00:20:24.970
that everything that's included in these bills

00:20:24.970 --> 00:20:27.730
actually relates to the budget. Okay, so she's

00:20:27.730 --> 00:20:31.309
kind of like a gatekeeper exactly and now Senator

00:20:31.309 --> 00:20:33.289
Graham is talking about trying to find a way

00:20:33.289 --> 00:20:35.769
around her Oh, wow, so that he can include things

00:20:35.769 --> 00:20:38.569
in the budget that she might not approve of exactly

00:20:38.569 --> 00:20:40.609
And the sources are saying this is like a nuclear

00:20:40.609 --> 00:20:43.410
option the nuclear option Yeah, it's a term that's

00:20:43.410 --> 00:20:45.130
been used before when talking about changing

00:20:45.130 --> 00:20:47.769
Senate rules, right? And it usually refers to

00:20:47.769 --> 00:20:50.579
things that could really weaken the role of the

00:20:50.579 --> 00:20:54.039
minority party and make it easier to pass legislation

00:20:54.039 --> 00:20:56.880
with a simple majority. So it's like getting

00:20:56.880 --> 00:20:59.640
rid of the filibuster. It could be a step in

00:20:59.640 --> 00:21:02.359
that direction. And the concern is that this

00:21:02.359 --> 00:21:04.559
could fundamentally change how the Senate operates.

00:21:05.160 --> 00:21:06.559
Absolutely. It could really shift the balance

00:21:06.559 --> 00:21:09.839
of power. Yeah, because if committee chairs can

00:21:09.839 --> 00:21:13.430
just decide what qualifies for budget reconciliation

00:21:13.430 --> 00:21:16.410
without any oversight from the parliamentarian.

00:21:16.670 --> 00:21:18.690
Then it becomes much easier for the majority

00:21:18.690 --> 00:21:21.190
party to ram through their agenda. Right. So

00:21:21.190 --> 00:21:23.609
it's a pretty big deal. It is. Yeah. And the

00:21:23.609 --> 00:21:26.170
long -term consequences of this could be really

00:21:26.170 --> 00:21:29.250
significant. Yeah. Because what one party does

00:21:29.250 --> 00:21:32.269
when they're in power can easily come back to

00:21:32.269 --> 00:21:34.630
bite them when the other party takes over. Exactly.

00:21:34.630 --> 00:21:36.890
It's like a double -edged sword. Yeah. So it's

00:21:36.890 --> 00:21:38.609
like they're playing with fire a little bit.

00:21:38.789 --> 00:21:42.029
A little bit. And on top of all that, There are

00:21:42.029 --> 00:21:45.130
these big differences between the Senate and

00:21:45.130 --> 00:21:48.109
House budget proposals. Oh, yeah. What are they

00:21:48.109 --> 00:21:50.230
fighting about? Well, one of the main sticking

00:21:50.230 --> 00:21:53.269
points is the extent of spending cuts. OK. The

00:21:53.269 --> 00:21:55.549
Senate version is much more aggressive in terms

00:21:55.549 --> 00:21:57.910
of cutting spending. And the House is not so

00:21:57.910 --> 00:22:00.710
keen on that. No. They're more reluctant to make

00:22:00.710 --> 00:22:02.849
those kinds of deep cuts. OK. And what else?

00:22:03.150 --> 00:22:05.069
Well, there's also disagreement about the state

00:22:05.069 --> 00:22:07.029
and local tax deduction, the SALT deduction.

00:22:07.509 --> 00:22:10.230
Oh, right. That's a big one for certain states.

00:22:10.480 --> 00:22:12.720
It is. Yeah. And the two chambers have different

00:22:12.720 --> 00:22:14.539
approaches to how they want to handle it. So

00:22:14.539 --> 00:22:16.339
it sounds like the reconciliation process is

00:22:16.339 --> 00:22:17.859
going to be pretty messy. It's probably going

00:22:17.859 --> 00:22:19.619
to be a fight. Yeah. OK. Well, let's move on

00:22:19.619 --> 00:22:21.279
now to this public health issue that's causing

00:22:21.279 --> 00:22:23.880
a lot of concern. The measles outbreak. Right.

00:22:23.880 --> 00:22:26.799
So this outbreak that started in Texas, it's

00:22:26.799 --> 00:22:30.140
now spread to over 20 states. Oh, wow. And there

00:22:30.140 --> 00:22:32.500
are hundreds of confirmed cases. And are people

00:22:32.500 --> 00:22:36.259
dying? Sadly, yes, there have been reports of

00:22:36.259 --> 00:22:39.240
fatalities. Oh, that's awful. It is. And to make

00:22:39.240 --> 00:22:41.880
matters worse, The administration has decided

00:22:41.880 --> 00:22:44.680
to claw back a bunch of money. Claw back money

00:22:44.680 --> 00:22:47.420
from what? From funding that was originally intended

00:22:47.420 --> 00:22:50.140
for vaccine clinics across the country. Oh wow,

00:22:50.200 --> 00:22:52.420
so they're taking money away from vaccination

00:22:52.420 --> 00:22:54.579
efforts. Yeah, it's about 12 billion dollars

00:22:54.579 --> 00:22:57.180
that they're taking back. That seems so counterproductive,

00:22:57.200 --> 00:22:59.579
especially in the middle of a measles outbreak.

00:22:59.799 --> 00:23:01.859
It does, yeah, and the timing is just terrible.

00:23:02.059 --> 00:23:04.579
So this funding was originally allocated during

00:23:04.579 --> 00:23:07.279
the COVID -19 pandemic. Right. and states had

00:23:07.279 --> 00:23:10.000
the flexibility to use it for various vaccination

00:23:10.000 --> 00:23:12.619
efforts. Including measles vaccinations. Right.

00:23:12.640 --> 00:23:14.599
So it seems like a really bad time to be pulling

00:23:14.599 --> 00:23:16.940
back this funding. It does. And there's a lot

00:23:16.940 --> 00:23:19.099
of criticism of this move. Yeah, I bet there

00:23:19.099 --> 00:23:21.220
is. One quote that really stood out to me was

00:23:21.220 --> 00:23:23.619
from Adrienne Casalotti, who's with the National

00:23:23.619 --> 00:23:25.599
Association of County and City Health Officials.

00:23:25.740 --> 00:23:28.500
OK. And she said, we have not seen this in public

00:23:28.500 --> 00:23:31.700
health, where money already obligated and out

00:23:31.700 --> 00:23:35.279
the door was clawed back. So this is unprecedented.

00:23:35.549 --> 00:23:38.329
It seems to be. Yeah. And the impact is already

00:23:38.329 --> 00:23:40.849
being felt. Oh, yeah. How so? Well, for example,

00:23:41.049 --> 00:23:43.769
Dallas County had made plans to set up 50 vaccine

00:23:43.769 --> 00:23:47.349
clinics. Wow. And now they've had to cancel those

00:23:47.349 --> 00:23:49.710
plans because the funding is gone. Exactly. And

00:23:49.710 --> 00:23:51.309
the director of Dallas County Health and Human

00:23:51.309 --> 00:23:54.509
Services, he describes the situation as very

00:23:54.509 --> 00:23:56.990
disruptive. Yeah, I can imagine. And he even

00:23:56.990 --> 00:23:59.410
suggests that this might be intentional, you

00:23:59.410 --> 00:24:01.430
know, intentional to what to make the outbreak

00:24:01.430 --> 00:24:03.730
worse. Well, he doesn't say that explicitly.

00:24:04.079 --> 00:24:06.319
But he does say that this isn't just affecting

00:24:06.319 --> 00:24:08.579
blue states or red states. Right. It's affecting

00:24:08.579 --> 00:24:11.259
everyone. So it's like a deliberate attack on

00:24:11.259 --> 00:24:13.559
public health. It's hard to say for sure, but

00:24:13.559 --> 00:24:15.859
it's certainly a possibility. And to make matters

00:24:15.859 --> 00:24:19.279
worse, 23 states have filed a lawsuit challenging

00:24:19.279 --> 00:24:21.920
this funding clawback. Wow. So there's a lot

00:24:21.920 --> 00:24:23.980
of pushback against this. Yeah. It seems like

00:24:23.980 --> 00:24:26.259
a lot of people are really upset about it. It's

00:24:26.259 --> 00:24:27.900
understandable. I mean, it's a public health

00:24:27.900 --> 00:24:30.819
emergency, and they're taking away resources.

00:24:30.839 --> 00:24:32.640
It's like they're not taking it seriously. It

00:24:32.640 --> 00:24:34.420
does seem that way. And it's like we've already

00:24:34.420 --> 00:24:36.259
been through this whole thing with the vaccines

00:24:36.259 --> 00:24:38.740
and autism debate, you know? Right. All that

00:24:38.740 --> 00:24:40.920
misinformation and fear -mongering. Exactly.

00:24:41.119 --> 00:24:44.480
And now it's like we're going backwards. It's

00:24:44.480 --> 00:24:47.519
disheartening. Yeah, it is. OK. So let's move

00:24:47.519 --> 00:24:50.289
on now to a different kind of dispute. OK. The

00:24:50.289 --> 00:24:52.809
ongoing election challenge in North Carolina.

00:24:53.190 --> 00:24:56.390
Oh, right. So the Republican candidate who narrowly

00:24:56.390 --> 00:24:58.509
lost the state Supreme Court election back in

00:24:58.509 --> 00:25:01.029
November. Right. He's still trying to overturn

00:25:01.029 --> 00:25:03.289
the results. Yeah, he's not giving up. No, he's

00:25:03.289 --> 00:25:06.730
not. And his whole argument centers around these

00:25:06.730 --> 00:25:09.069
alleged problems with voter registration. Voter

00:25:09.069 --> 00:25:11.029
registration, what kind of problems? Well, he's

00:25:11.029 --> 00:25:12.970
claiming that thousands of people who voted in

00:25:12.970 --> 00:25:15.309
the election weren't actually eligible to do

00:25:15.309 --> 00:25:17.599
so. Because of problems with their voter registration?

00:25:17.859 --> 00:25:19.960
Exactly. He says they didn't provide proper proof

00:25:19.960 --> 00:25:22.200
of identity when they registered it. OK, but

00:25:22.200 --> 00:25:24.380
didn't a lot of these voters actually provide

00:25:24.380 --> 00:25:27.859
the required information? Yeah, reportedly they

00:25:27.859 --> 00:25:31.599
did. But it wasn't properly documented by election

00:25:31.599 --> 00:25:34.119
officials. So it's like a bureaucratic screw

00:25:34.119 --> 00:25:36.920
up. It seems like it. Yeah. And now this candidate

00:25:36.920 --> 00:25:39.940
is trying to use that to invalidate their votes.

00:25:40.240 --> 00:25:42.480
Exactly. And what's interesting is that the state

00:25:42.480 --> 00:25:45.480
board of elections initially dismissed this case.

00:25:45.519 --> 00:25:48.180
OK. But then an appeals court ruled in favor

00:25:48.180 --> 00:25:50.299
of the Republican candidate. Oh, wow. So they're

00:25:50.299 --> 00:25:52.500
saying that these voters should be given a chance

00:25:52.500 --> 00:25:55.240
to fix their registrations after the election

00:25:55.240 --> 00:25:56.940
has already happened. Yeah, they're calling it

00:25:56.940 --> 00:25:59.519
an opportunity to cure their registration. Cure

00:25:59.519 --> 00:26:01.299
their registrations after the election. That

00:26:01.299 --> 00:26:03.759
seems kind of... It does seem a little strange.

00:26:03.950 --> 00:26:06.009
Yeah. I mean, how do you even do that? Right.

00:26:06.170 --> 00:26:07.990
I mean, it's a logistical nightmare. Yeah. You're

00:26:07.990 --> 00:26:09.829
talking about tracking down potentially thousands

00:26:09.829 --> 00:26:12.410
of voters. And not everyone's easy to reach.

00:26:12.769 --> 00:26:15.170
Some people might be overseas. Yeah. Some might

00:26:15.170 --> 00:26:18.069
have moved. Right. So it seems incredibly difficult

00:26:18.069 --> 00:26:20.650
and not to mention unfair. Right. Because you're

00:26:20.650 --> 00:26:22.869
changing the rules of the game after the game

00:26:22.869 --> 00:26:25.170
has already been played. Exactly. And, you know,

00:26:25.369 --> 00:26:27.470
the dissenting judge on the appeals panel, he

00:26:27.470 --> 00:26:31.180
made a pretty strong argument against that. What

00:26:31.180 --> 00:26:33.119
did he say? He basically said, you can't just

00:26:33.119 --> 00:26:35.319
change the rules after the fact. Makes sense

00:26:35.319 --> 00:26:37.299
to me. Yeah, it does to me, too. Now it looks

00:26:37.299 --> 00:26:39.000
like this case is going to.
