WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.040 Welcome to the Depth Dive. Today we're wading 00:00:02.040 --> 00:00:05.360 through a ton of news and analysis, really focusing 00:00:05.360 --> 00:00:08.060 on this major development, President Trump's 00:00:08.060 --> 00:00:11.000 new Liberation Day tariff plan. Yeah, there's 00:00:11.000 --> 00:00:12.900 a lot there. There is. And we're also going to 00:00:12.900 --> 00:00:15.380 touch on some, well, some fascinating political 00:00:15.380 --> 00:00:18.339 currents and shifts, plus a really great story 00:00:18.339 --> 00:00:21.000 about community action. We've got news articles, 00:00:21.420 --> 00:00:24.000 economic analysis from investment firms, other 00:00:24.000 --> 00:00:27.600 political reports. It's a real mix. Our job is 00:00:27.600 --> 00:00:29.870 to cut through it all for you. OK, let's unpack 00:00:29.870 --> 00:00:31.829 this because some of these connections are pretty 00:00:31.829 --> 00:00:34.109 interesting. What's fascinating here is how these 00:00:34.109 --> 00:00:36.509 things that seem separate, you know, the trade 00:00:36.509 --> 00:00:38.409 stuff, the Senate speech, the election results, 00:00:38.429 --> 00:00:41.549 they might actually be linked, perhaps reflecting 00:00:41.549 --> 00:00:44.170 a sort of broader mood or reaction right now. 00:00:44.289 --> 00:00:47.310 Exactly. So the big one first. Trump's Liberation 00:00:47.310 --> 00:00:51.210 Day tariffs announced April 2nd, 2025. Rose Garden 00:00:51.210 --> 00:00:53.909 event, very typical style, and that branding 00:00:53.909 --> 00:00:57.369 Liberation Day. Now, it's not just one flat tariff. 00:00:57.530 --> 00:01:00.530 It's got two parts. First, a 10 % baseline on 00:01:00.530 --> 00:01:02.329 all imports. That kicked in really fast April 00:01:02.329 --> 00:01:05.650 5th. Then, just a few days later, April 9th, 00:01:05.689 --> 00:01:09.230 the second bit, these 50 % discounted reciprocal 00:01:09.230 --> 00:01:12.349 tariffs. Targeting specific countries based on 00:01:12.349 --> 00:01:14.310 supposedly their trade barriers against the u 00:01:14.310 --> 00:01:16.150 .s. Right and the numbers they are pretty significant 00:01:16.150 --> 00:01:18.890 China's facing 34 percent Yeah, and it's important 00:01:18.890 --> 00:01:20.930 to remember like you said that's on top of the 00:01:20.930 --> 00:01:23.609 existing 20 percent fentanyl tariff So it's stacks 00:01:23.609 --> 00:01:26.689 Japan gets hit with 24 percent and the European 00:01:26.689 --> 00:01:30.250 Union is looking at 20 percent. These are Substantial 00:01:30.250 --> 00:01:33.189 increases big numbers now there are exemptions 00:01:33.189 --> 00:01:35.650 Canada and Mexico. They're out under the USMCA 00:01:35.650 --> 00:01:38.349 deal. But old tariffs still apply. Right, exactly. 00:01:38.489 --> 00:01:40.950 Pre -existing tariffs stay. And there are temporary 00:01:40.950 --> 00:01:43.390 breaks for things like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, 00:01:43.629 --> 00:01:46.930 copper, gold, energy, certain minerals we don't 00:01:46.930 --> 00:01:49.290 have enough of here. But the administration says 00:01:49.290 --> 00:01:52.969 those are temporary, expected to subside. The 00:01:52.969 --> 00:01:56.569 stated goals... are basically twofold. One, incentivize 00:01:56.569 --> 00:01:59.049 reshoring, bring manufacturing back by making 00:01:59.049 --> 00:02:02.150 imports pricey. And two, pressure trade partners 00:02:02.150 --> 00:02:04.989 to lower their barriers, not just tariffs, but 00:02:04.989 --> 00:02:07.250 quotas, regulations, even currency practices. 00:02:07.609 --> 00:02:10.169 It all hangs on this idea of reciprocity. Which 00:02:10.169 --> 00:02:13.789 brings us to the really controversial part, how 00:02:13.789 --> 00:02:16.689 they calculated these reciprocal rates. The White 00:02:16.689 --> 00:02:20.509 House... frames trade deficits, importing more 00:02:20.509 --> 00:02:23.069 than we export as economic aggression? Yeah, 00:02:23.310 --> 00:02:24.710 that's the justification. It's like, you sold 00:02:24.710 --> 00:02:27.490 us more stuff, so now you pay a penalty, almost. 00:02:27.770 --> 00:02:30.069 And what's fascinating here is the math behind 00:02:30.069 --> 00:02:33.310 it. Economist James Surowiecki basically reverse 00:02:33.310 --> 00:02:35.210 engineered it. It looks like the tariff rate 00:02:35.210 --> 00:02:38.180 is the U .S. trade deficit with a country. divided 00:02:38.180 --> 00:02:40.479 by that country's exports to the U .S. Which 00:02:40.479 --> 00:02:42.199 is kind of a weird metric, isn't it? Because 00:02:42.199 --> 00:02:44.860 I'm dimensional. And get this, apparently, AI 00:02:44.860 --> 00:02:48.099 engines like Grok, Elon Musk's AI, if you ask 00:02:48.099 --> 00:02:50.340 them how to balance trade deficits using tariffs, 00:02:50.719 --> 00:02:53.740 they spit out similar formulas. Grok gave the 00:02:53.740 --> 00:02:56.520 exact same one. Huh, interesting. The White House 00:02:56.520 --> 00:02:59.000 tried to defend it, put out this super complex 00:02:59.000 --> 00:03:01.860 equation talking about elasticity of import demand 00:03:01.860 --> 00:03:04.060 and stuff. Right, I saw that. Looked complicated. 00:03:04.240 --> 00:03:06.800 But Surowiecki looked closer and found the extra 00:03:06.800 --> 00:03:09.060 bits were just constants that basically canceled 00:03:09.060 --> 00:03:11.159 out. It was just deficit divided by exports. 00:03:11.719 --> 00:03:14.460 Sulfistry, he called it. Wow. So it really was 00:03:14.460 --> 00:03:16.699 that simple formula dressed up. Seems like it. 00:03:16.719 --> 00:03:19.780 And this formula leads to some really bizarre 00:03:19.780 --> 00:03:21.740 results, doesn't it? Oh, absolutely. The highest 00:03:21.740 --> 00:03:25.349 tariff rate, it falls on Lesotho. Very poor country 00:03:25.349 --> 00:03:28.169 one Trump is singled out before right because 00:03:28.169 --> 00:03:31.150 they don't import much from the u .s. Relative 00:03:31.150 --> 00:03:33.849 to their exports here. The math suggests they 00:03:33.849 --> 00:03:36.030 have a hundred percent barrier so they get the 00:03:36.030 --> 00:03:39.860 50 % reciprocal tariff that just seems Illogical. 00:03:40.039 --> 00:03:42.240 And other poor nations, too. Cambodia, Vietnam, 00:03:42.539 --> 00:03:45.400 Madagascar, Myanmar. They're facing incredibly 00:03:45.400 --> 00:03:48.340 high rates. It really shows the flaw in using 00:03:48.340 --> 00:03:50.960 just trade deficits like this. So economically, 00:03:51.139 --> 00:03:53.199 what are we looking at? The average U .S. tariff 00:03:53.199 --> 00:03:55.280 rate is expected to hit levels not seen since 00:03:55.280 --> 00:03:58.180 the 1930s, right? Higher than any other developed 00:03:58.180 --> 00:04:01.090 country. That's the projection. Short term. almost 00:04:01.090 --> 00:04:03.110 certainly higher prices for consumers, businesses 00:04:03.110 --> 00:04:06.229 will pass those costs on. Long term, big worries 00:04:06.229 --> 00:04:09.189 about business investment, hiring, just a lot 00:04:09.189 --> 00:04:11.550 of uncertainty injected into global trade that 00:04:11.550 --> 00:04:13.590 impacts everyone's cost of living, potentially 00:04:13.590 --> 00:04:16.209 jobs. Yeah, that uncertainty is killer for business. 00:04:16.550 --> 00:04:19.089 Now, there is a potential counter argument. Maybe 00:04:19.089 --> 00:04:21.670 a silver lining some analysts point to. This 00:04:21.670 --> 00:04:24.949 could potentially encourage foreign companies 00:04:24.949 --> 00:04:27.149 to build factories in the U .S. to avoid the 00:04:27.149 --> 00:04:29.910 tariffs. So you might see some domestic manufacturing 00:04:29.910 --> 00:04:32.649 growth down the line, even if consumers feel 00:04:32.649 --> 00:04:36.410 the pinch now. Possibility, I guess. But the 00:04:36.410 --> 00:04:39.769 immediate market reaction was not good. Not good 00:04:39.769 --> 00:04:42.339 is an understatement. It was the worst day since 00:04:42.339 --> 00:04:45.319 the early COVID panic in 2020. Wow. Dow down 00:04:45.319 --> 00:04:49.480 4%. NASDAQ crashed 6%. S &P 500 dropped nearly 00:04:49.480 --> 00:04:52.779 5%. It was brutal. And specific stocks. Apple, 00:04:53.100 --> 00:04:56.120 Amazon, Nike. All down over 5%. Big consumer 00:04:56.120 --> 00:04:58.740 names feeling the heat immediately. Oh, and Newsmax 00:04:58.740 --> 00:05:00.639 stock. Remember that meme stock? Yeah. It went 00:05:00.639 --> 00:05:03.670 public recently. It lost 77 % in one day. Just 00:05:03.670 --> 00:05:06.670 evaporated. Shows its volatility. Ouch. So widespread 00:05:06.670 --> 00:05:08.810 criticism, right? Not just from the usual suspects. 00:05:08.910 --> 00:05:11.449 No, definitely not. The economists called Trump's 00:05:11.449 --> 00:05:14.050 trade views utterly deluded and the trade war 00:05:14.050 --> 00:05:16.949 the most profound, harmful, and unnecessary economic 00:05:16.949 --> 00:05:19.550 error of the modern era. Strong words. Very strong. 00:05:19.709 --> 00:05:22.790 And even Republicans. Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz came 00:05:22.790 --> 00:05:26.050 out saying, tariffs are a tax on consumers. And 00:05:26.050 --> 00:05:28.670 he wasn't for raising taxes. Mike Pence also 00:05:28.670 --> 00:05:31.230 chimed in, warning it could cost households thousands. 00:05:31.310 --> 00:05:34.589 And internationally. Retaliation. Oh, immediately. 00:05:35.310 --> 00:05:37.569 Canada slapped 25 percent tariffs on U .S.-made 00:05:37.569 --> 00:05:40.889 cars. China hit back with 34 percent on U .S. 00:05:41.089 --> 00:05:43.389 goods. Predictable, really, but it escalates 00:05:43.389 --> 00:05:46.250 things quickly. But the White House spin is positive. 00:05:46.509 --> 00:05:48.879 Yeah. Trump said, it's going very well. Markets 00:05:48.879 --> 00:05:51.040 are going to boom. The press secretary claimed 00:05:51.040 --> 00:05:53.339 no pain for American workers. Just as Stellantis 00:05:53.339 --> 00:05:56.199 announced layoffs. Exactly. 900 workers at Stellantis, 00:05:56.319 --> 00:05:58.220 the Chrysler Jeep parent company. The timing 00:05:58.220 --> 00:06:00.000 was awkward. And then you had Jeanine Pirro saying 00:06:00.000 --> 00:06:02.459 she doesn't care about her 401k. Different worlds, 00:06:02.579 --> 00:06:05.800 apparently. Yeah. And the targets themselves, 00:06:05.959 --> 00:06:08.240 some are just weird. Herd Island and McDonald 00:06:08.240 --> 00:06:11.540 Islands, penguins. Uninhabited Australian territories. 00:06:11.980 --> 00:06:15.500 Gets a tariff. But Cuba, North Korea, Russia. 00:06:15.850 --> 00:06:19.310 exempt. And the Russia explanation that sanctions 00:06:19.310 --> 00:06:22.490 cut trade to zero. Factually incorrect. U .S.-Russia 00:06:22.490 --> 00:06:24.370 trade is still billions. It just doesn't add 00:06:24.370 --> 00:06:27.870 up. So the overall picture is messy. Extremely 00:06:27.870 --> 00:06:32.410 messy. There's no clear plan, no consensus, no 00:06:32.410 --> 00:06:35.829 gradual rollout. Someone called them keystone 00:06:35.829 --> 00:06:40.449 cops tariffs, which feels apt. Politico's Victoria 00:06:40.449 --> 00:06:42.829 Guida said the end game is shrouded in confusion. 00:06:43.540 --> 00:06:46.980 That uncertainty is toxic for business. And right 00:06:46.980 --> 00:06:49.339 as this rolls out, Trump's approval rating takes 00:06:49.339 --> 00:06:51.939 a hit. Yeah, a Reuter -Sipsis poll put him at 00:06:51.939 --> 00:06:55.120 43 percent, reportedly his lowest since taking 00:06:55.120 --> 00:06:57.720 office again. The timing suggests the tariffs 00:06:57.720 --> 00:06:59.959 might not be playing well. Interesting, that 00:06:59.959 --> 00:07:02.519 public reaction could be key going forward, couldn't 00:07:02.519 --> 00:07:04.660 it? Absolutely. If there's sustained backlash, 00:07:04.860 --> 00:07:06.579 that puts pressure on the administration. OK, 00:07:06.579 --> 00:07:08.740 so that's the Terram situation. Huge deal. Now 00:07:08.740 --> 00:07:11.259 let's switch gears. Senator Cory Booker's Senate 00:07:11.259 --> 00:07:13.879 speech. Right, the 25 -hour marathon. Yeah, roughly 00:07:13.879 --> 00:07:16.879 25 hours, Tuesday. And he was clear it wasn't 00:07:16.879 --> 00:07:19.500 a filibuster to block a vote, but more to disrupt 00:07:19.500 --> 00:07:21.720 Senate business, specifically concerning the 00:07:21.720 --> 00:07:23.740 second Trump presidency. And the reaction was 00:07:23.740 --> 00:07:25.579 pretty remarkable, wasn't it? A lot of positive 00:07:25.579 --> 00:07:28.240 press. Across the board, really. The Guardian, 00:07:28.519 --> 00:07:31.519 Boston Globe, even Jonathan Last at the Bulwark, 00:07:31.779 --> 00:07:34.420 and Frank Luntz, the Republican pollster, had 00:07:34.420 --> 00:07:37.120 positive things to say about the impact. And 00:07:37.120 --> 00:07:39.279 viewer numbers were huge for a Senate speech. 00:07:39.899 --> 00:07:42.339 Livestreams peaked over half a million viewers. 00:07:43.160 --> 00:07:45.680 Social media engagement way up too. What's fascinating 00:07:45.680 --> 00:07:48.079 here is why it resonated so much right now. Yeah. 00:07:48.519 --> 00:07:51.589 What do you think? Reaction to the tariffs. A 00:07:51.589 --> 00:07:53.970 desire for a stronger democratic voice. Could 00:07:53.970 --> 00:07:56.629 be all of those. Yeah. Maybe just the sheer endurance 00:07:56.629 --> 00:07:59.110 and the message itself hit a nerve. It definitely 00:07:59.110 --> 00:08:00.730 seemed to tap into something. And you have to 00:08:00.730 --> 00:08:03.209 think this could really boost his national profile 00:08:03.209 --> 00:08:06.389 long term. Oh, definitely. These kinds of moments 00:08:06.389 --> 00:08:08.509 can really define a politician in the public 00:08:08.509 --> 00:08:11.970 eye. Suggest an appetite for more vocal opposition. 00:08:12.170 --> 00:08:14.290 We'll see if it builds. Which kind of leads into 00:08:14.290 --> 00:08:17.470 another trend, special elections. Ah, yes, the 00:08:17.470 --> 00:08:19.329 numbers there have been interesting. Since Trump 00:08:19.329 --> 00:08:22.050 took office, looking at Florida, state legislative 00:08:22.050 --> 00:08:24.850 races, Democrats seem to be outperforming their 00:08:24.850 --> 00:08:27.509 November results pretty consistently. 11 out 00:08:27.509 --> 00:08:30.269 of 13 races, often by double digits, Pennsylvania, 00:08:30.589 --> 00:08:34.210 Maine, Iowa. And that Florida race, FLZIL -1, 00:08:34.629 --> 00:08:36.429 that's quite something. Yeah, explain that one. 00:08:36.649 --> 00:08:38.750 It's a very Republican district, lots of federal 00:08:38.750 --> 00:08:41.389 workers. The Democrat did much better than expected, 00:08:41.809 --> 00:08:44.250 even won a county that's usually solidly Republican. 00:08:45.200 --> 00:08:47.879 Could be backlash, maybe. Especially with federal 00:08:47.879 --> 00:08:51.440 workers potentially feeling uneasy. Mm. Mm. Plausible. 00:08:51.620 --> 00:08:54.860 Yeah. And then Wisconsin, the judicial race. 00:08:54.940 --> 00:08:57.639 Right. Elon Musk poured money into the conservative 00:08:57.639 --> 00:09:00.059 candidate. The Democrat -aligned candidate not 00:09:00.059 --> 00:09:03.259 only won, but outperformed VP Kamala Harris in 00:09:03.259 --> 00:09:05.779 every single county, even when she did well in. 00:09:06.299 --> 00:09:08.940 And turnout was high, like midterm levels. Wow. 00:09:09.019 --> 00:09:12.440 Every county, despite Musk's money. Yeah. It 00:09:12.440 --> 00:09:14.899 suggests maybe a broader anti -Trump sentiment. 00:09:15.100 --> 00:09:17.519 or perhaps lower Magier turnout than expected, 00:09:17.779 --> 00:09:20.259 or just strong Democratic mobilization. Hard 00:09:20.259 --> 00:09:22.559 to say definitively, but it's a notable result. 00:09:22.820 --> 00:09:24.620 Speaking of Musk, it sounds like he had a rough 00:09:24.620 --> 00:09:27.639 week overall. Seems that way. Besides the Wisconsin 00:09:27.639 --> 00:09:29.600 loss, there were these potential fraud allegations 00:09:29.600 --> 00:09:32.059 about a prize giveaway, suggestions the winners 00:09:32.059 --> 00:09:34.419 weren't random. Oh dear. Plus reports that Trump 00:09:34.419 --> 00:09:36.559 might be trying to distance himself, worried 00:09:36.559 --> 00:09:39.240 Musk is becoming a liability. And then Tesla 00:09:39.240 --> 00:09:42.919 sales dropped 13 % in Q1, while their big Chinese 00:09:42.919 --> 00:09:47.019 rival, BYD, grew 60%. All that, plus the market 00:09:47.019 --> 00:09:49.759 dip, reportedly hit his personal wealth hard. 00:09:50.259 --> 00:09:52.200 And there was that picture trending. Right, saw 00:09:52.200 --> 00:09:54.889 that. Definitely not his best week. Okay, quickly. 00:09:55.049 --> 00:09:57.210 Other news. Pete Hegsap, the defense secretary. 00:09:57.309 --> 00:09:59.750 Under IG investigation, yeah. Allegedly using 00:09:59.750 --> 00:10:02.429 signal for classified discussions. Oh. Bipartisan 00:10:02.429 --> 00:10:04.269 requests for the investigation from the Senate 00:10:04.269 --> 00:10:06.269 Armed Services leaders. And at the same time, 00:10:06.450 --> 00:10:09.450 NSA firings. Director, deputy, others. Yeah. 00:10:09.789 --> 00:10:12.090 Reasons unclear, but reports mention Laura Loomer, 00:10:12.269 --> 00:10:14.769 the far -right activist, potentially having influence. 00:10:15.190 --> 00:10:17.169 Raises questions about personnel decisions. Yeah. 00:10:17.350 --> 00:10:20.169 Election news. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. 00:10:20.350 --> 00:10:22.590 Got the Dem nomination for governor unopposed. 00:10:22.679 --> 00:10:25.679 Faces Earl Sears or Chase in November. Expected 00:10:25.679 --> 00:10:28.659 to be tight. And Eric Adams in NYC, running as 00:10:28.659 --> 00:10:30.600 an independent. Yeah, long shot given is low 00:10:30.600 --> 00:10:32.940 approval and no matching funds. A surprising 00:10:32.940 --> 00:10:35.659 move. Interesting times. These state and local 00:10:35.659 --> 00:10:37.759 things can be bellwethers, can't they? Definitely 00:10:37.759 --> 00:10:39.840 worth watching. They often signal bigger shifts. 00:10:40.080 --> 00:10:41.960 Okay, let's end on something positive. Louisville, 00:10:42.159 --> 00:10:45.940 Kentucky. The hospital in the West End. Great 00:10:45.940 --> 00:10:49.980 story. Amazing story. After 150 years, that historically 00:10:49.980 --> 00:10:53.159 black community finally has a hospital. Addressing 00:10:53.159 --> 00:10:55.500 huge health care disparities, life expectancy 00:10:55.500 --> 00:10:58.659 differences were stark. Driven by Karenza Townsend, 00:10:59.000 --> 00:11:01.480 a hospital employee. Incredible dedication. And 00:11:01.480 --> 00:11:04.429 the hospital includes a food bank. a safe space, 00:11:04.870 --> 00:11:07.450 really community focused, just an inspiring example 00:11:07.450 --> 00:11:10.269 of local action. It really is. Highlights the 00:11:10.269 --> 00:11:12.690 importance of health care access and what community 00:11:12.690 --> 00:11:15.149 efforts can achieve, even amidst all the national 00:11:15.149 --> 00:11:17.970 noise. A reminder that progress happens locally, 00:11:18.190 --> 00:11:21.129 too. Absolutely. So quite a mix today. Global 00:11:21.129 --> 00:11:22.870 trade shifts, potentially hitting your wallet, 00:11:23.110 --> 00:11:25.649 political maneuvering, surprising election results, 00:11:26.190 --> 00:11:28.110 and local triumphs. It all connects, doesn't 00:11:28.110 --> 00:11:29.789 it? It really does. So what does this all mean 00:11:29.789 --> 00:11:32.330 for you? Well, a lot to keep an eye on. And this 00:11:32.330 --> 00:11:34.230 raises an important question for you to mull 00:11:34.230 --> 00:11:37.370 over. What is the long -term fallout of these 00:11:37.370 --> 00:11:39.789 tariffs going to be economically, diplomatically, 00:11:40.309 --> 00:11:42.730 and how will these political currents, the speeches, 00:11:42.870 --> 00:11:45.129 the elections, actually reshape things going 00:11:45.129 --> 00:11:47.590 forward? Definitely food for thought. Thanks 00:11:47.590 --> 00:11:49.990 for diving deep with us today. Keep thinking 00:11:49.990 --> 00:11:52.149 about these issues and what they mean for all 00:11:52.149 --> 00:11:52.570 of us.