WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.940 ever feel like you're just drowning in news? 00:00:02.060 --> 00:00:03.580 Like, you can't even keep up, let alone figure 00:00:03.580 --> 00:00:05.759 out what actually matters. Yeah, it's a lot. 00:00:06.240 --> 00:00:09.500 Well, that's exactly why we're here today. For 00:00:09.500 --> 00:00:12.300 this deep dive, we're cutting through all the 00:00:12.300 --> 00:00:14.880 noise and getting straight to the core of it 00:00:14.880 --> 00:00:16.949 all. We're looking at everything that's happened 00:00:16.949 --> 00:00:20.129 recently through two really important lenses. 00:00:20.949 --> 00:00:23.929 The immediate political fallout, of course. But 00:00:23.929 --> 00:00:26.609 also, what kind of signals are we getting from 00:00:26.609 --> 00:00:29.410 economic forecasts? Exactly. So we've got a really 00:00:29.410 --> 00:00:31.589 fascinating set of sources for this one. We're 00:00:31.589 --> 00:00:33.429 going to be looking at some in -depth political 00:00:33.429 --> 00:00:36.490 analysis, but we've also got the latest economic 00:00:36.490 --> 00:00:40.750 outlook from BNY Mellon, a huge financial institution. 00:00:40.890 --> 00:00:43.109 Having these different perspectives, like you 00:00:43.109 --> 00:00:45.630 said, is key to figuring out the big picture. 00:00:46.210 --> 00:00:48.189 Absolutely. So our mission today is to understand 00:00:48.189 --> 00:00:50.729 what are the real consequences, both politically 00:00:50.729 --> 00:00:53.770 and economically, from recent events? And what 00:00:53.770 --> 00:00:56.049 could they mean for us in the near future? What 00:00:56.049 --> 00:00:57.890 are the actual impacts that we should be watching 00:00:57.890 --> 00:01:00.149 out for? Exactly. So let's jump right in. There's 00:01:00.149 --> 00:01:02.909 this whole thing that's been dubbed Whiskey Leaks 00:01:02.909 --> 00:01:05.459 Online. Which is pretty catchy, I gotta say. 00:01:05.560 --> 00:01:07.780 Yeah, it's very memorable. It really is. And 00:01:07.780 --> 00:01:09.760 this signal message scandal, I mean, it just 00:01:09.760 --> 00:01:11.780 keeps going. Doesn't seem like it's gonna fade 00:01:11.780 --> 00:01:14.659 away anytime soon. No, it really doesn't. Especially 00:01:14.659 --> 00:01:17.079 with this Judge Boasberg. Oh, yeah. Remember 00:01:17.079 --> 00:01:19.459 him from the Venezuelan deportation cases? Sure 00:01:19.459 --> 00:01:21.879 do. Well, he's now ordered the administration 00:01:21.879 --> 00:01:24.700 to preserve all of those messages from the group 00:01:24.700 --> 00:01:27.620 of 18. Ooh, putting them between a rock and a 00:01:27.620 --> 00:01:30.299 hard place. Right, because now they risk being 00:01:30.299 --> 00:01:33.469 held in contempt of court if they don't... comply 00:01:33.469 --> 00:01:36.390 or release information that is already causing 00:01:36.390 --> 00:01:39.230 some serious public relations issues. Yeah, public 00:01:39.230 --> 00:01:41.909 relations nightmare. For sure. But it is really 00:01:41.909 --> 00:01:44.629 telling that there is significant concern across 00:01:44.629 --> 00:01:48.049 party lines. There was this YouGov poll. Oh, 00:01:48.049 --> 00:01:51.409 right. And a full 74 % overall. And this is important. 00:01:51.629 --> 00:01:55.269 Even 60 % of Republicans view this as a serious 00:01:55.269 --> 00:01:57.969 matter. So even within the GOP base, there's 00:01:57.969 --> 00:02:00.810 a line they won't cross. It seems like Whiskey 00:02:00.810 --> 00:02:03.450 Leaks has crossed it. This isn't just like partisan 00:02:03.450 --> 00:02:05.870 bickering. This is a wider unease about how things 00:02:05.870 --> 00:02:09.909 are run. It really seems that way. So while all 00:02:09.909 --> 00:02:12.270 the legal stuff is happening, journalists are 00:02:12.270 --> 00:02:14.830 uncovering even more layers to this whole thing. 00:02:15.650 --> 00:02:18.389 So Willamette Week reported that Joe Kent, and 00:02:18.389 --> 00:02:21.110 this is wild, Joe Kent, who has been nominated 00:02:21.110 --> 00:02:23.810 to be the director of the National Counterterrorism 00:02:23.810 --> 00:02:26.939 Center, So he's the intended person, but hasn't 00:02:26.939 --> 00:02:29.740 gone through the full Senate confirmation. He 00:02:29.740 --> 00:02:32.860 was part of this text chain before his nomination 00:02:32.860 --> 00:02:36.020 was even confirmed. So that raises some very 00:02:36.020 --> 00:02:39.340 serious legal questions about access to information, 00:02:39.819 --> 00:02:41.439 timelines, all that kind of thing. Right, like 00:02:41.439 --> 00:02:43.840 who had access to what information and when. 00:02:44.180 --> 00:02:46.379 Exactly. And if we try to connect that back to 00:02:46.379 --> 00:02:48.360 the bigger picture of governance and security, 00:02:48.500 --> 00:02:52.129 it really brings up this need. to have proper 00:02:52.129 --> 00:02:54.490 protocols in place. Absolutely. When you have 00:02:54.490 --> 00:02:56.129 individuals who haven't gone through official 00:02:56.129 --> 00:02:58.490 vetting yet, and they have access to this kind 00:02:58.490 --> 00:03:01.969 of sensitive communication, it just creates so 00:03:01.969 --> 00:03:04.770 much risk. Yeah. And then there's Spiegel International. 00:03:04.949 --> 00:03:07.449 They went deep into data security around all 00:03:07.449 --> 00:03:10.210 of this and found some wild stuff, like truly 00:03:10.210 --> 00:03:12.969 remarkable. It turns out that a lot of the key 00:03:12.969 --> 00:03:15.629 figures in this, we're talking Mike Waltz, national 00:03:15.629 --> 00:03:18.599 security advisor, Tulsi Gabbard. Director of 00:03:18.599 --> 00:03:21.240 National Intelligence, Pete Hegseth, Secretary 00:03:21.240 --> 00:03:24.879 of Defense. Wow, big players. Had major vulnerabilities 00:03:24.879 --> 00:03:27.800 in their personal data security. Like what? Like 00:03:27.800 --> 00:03:30.439 their phone numbers. OK. Their personal emails. 00:03:30.740 --> 00:03:34.259 Right. Even passwords. Wow. All revealed through 00:03:34.259 --> 00:03:36.560 publicly available info. I mean, it really makes 00:03:36.560 --> 00:03:38.539 you think about the judgment of the people in 00:03:38.539 --> 00:03:40.580 these roles. It does. You know, if they can't 00:03:40.580 --> 00:03:44.500 keep basic personal data safe, how can we expect 00:03:44.500 --> 00:03:48.580 them to protect? sensitive government info. Yeah, 00:03:48.620 --> 00:03:50.659 I mean, you'd think the National Security Advisor 00:03:50.659 --> 00:03:52.319 would be a little more careful with his phone 00:03:52.319 --> 00:03:55.080 number, you know. I don't think so. So legally 00:03:55.080 --> 00:03:57.460 speaking, it's still not likely that AG Pam Bondi 00:03:57.460 --> 00:03:59.599 is going to go for criminal charges. But that 00:03:59.599 --> 00:04:02.099 PR damage, I mean, that seems unavoidable. And 00:04:02.099 --> 00:04:04.419 remember that YouGov poll, that public concern 00:04:04.419 --> 00:04:08.199 is showing up in the polls. It is. Walz and Hegseth, 00:04:08.599 --> 00:04:10.960 their favorability ratings are down, and even 00:04:10.960 --> 00:04:13.180 Trump's approval is taking a hit. And speaking 00:04:13.180 --> 00:04:16.439 of Trump, his stance on Mike Walz has been... 00:04:16.240 --> 00:04:18.939 Well, let's just say evolving. Evolving. He went 00:04:18.939 --> 00:04:21.279 from defending Waltz to, oh, yeah, I always had 00:04:21.279 --> 00:04:23.459 my doubts about Mike. So it sounds like there's 00:04:23.459 --> 00:04:25.540 a real effort in the West Wing to push Waltz 00:04:25.540 --> 00:04:27.600 out. Really? And here's something really interesting. 00:04:28.180 --> 00:04:30.819 Jeffrey Goldberg's phone number was on Waltz's 00:04:30.819 --> 00:04:35.680 phone. Now, remember Trump. hates Goldberg, especially 00:04:35.680 --> 00:04:38.579 after all that reporting on the war dead. Right. 00:04:38.680 --> 00:04:41.459 So that little detail could be a huge factor 00:04:41.459 --> 00:04:43.899 in Wallace's downfall. Trump could see that as 00:04:43.899 --> 00:04:46.360 a total betrayal. Yeah, it's like the fact that 00:04:46.360 --> 00:04:49.079 it was that name is almost more important than 00:04:49.079 --> 00:04:52.019 the carelessness itself. It seems like it. So 00:04:52.019 --> 00:04:54.879 switching gears a bit, but still in the realm 00:04:54.879 --> 00:04:58.399 of unexpected political moves, we have Elise 00:04:58.399 --> 00:05:01.240 Stefanik's nomination for UN ambassador. Yeah. 00:05:01.639 --> 00:05:03.420 Suddenly withdrawn. Now, this has got to be a 00:05:03.420 --> 00:05:05.579 big setback for Stefanic. Yeah. I mean, that 00:05:05.579 --> 00:05:08.680 UN role would have raised her profile significantly. 00:05:08.740 --> 00:05:10.819 It would have. Given her some serious foreign 00:05:10.819 --> 00:05:13.860 policy experience. I think a lot of people saw 00:05:13.860 --> 00:05:16.339 it as a stepping stone to even bigger things. 00:05:17.040 --> 00:05:19.819 And to lose out on that, especially after giving 00:05:19.819 --> 00:05:22.199 up her House leadership position, it leaves her 00:05:22.199 --> 00:05:24.660 in a really tough spot. So what happened? Well, 00:05:25.060 --> 00:05:26.939 some analysis points to the upcoming special 00:05:26.939 --> 00:05:29.639 elections in Florida. Right. Right. That poll 00:05:29.639 --> 00:05:32.779 in FL 06 showing Randy Fine in a much tighter 00:05:32.779 --> 00:05:35.579 race than expected, even in a district that's 00:05:35.579 --> 00:05:37.079 historically Republican, I mean, that has to 00:05:37.079 --> 00:05:39.220 be setting off some alarm bells. Yeah, because 00:05:39.220 --> 00:05:41.240 if we connect that to the fact that the Republican 00:05:41.240 --> 00:05:43.360 majority in the House is already razor thin, 00:05:43.819 --> 00:05:46.660 any loss is a big problem. Right. And then on 00:05:46.660 --> 00:05:49.360 top of that, what if Republican voters see a 00:05:49.360 --> 00:05:52.600 close call or an actual loss as a result of supporting 00:05:52.600 --> 00:05:54.699 Trumpism? Oh, interesting. Then you might see 00:05:54.699 --> 00:05:57.800 more moderate GOP members in those swing districts. 00:05:58.199 --> 00:06:00.560 distance themselves from Trump, even vote against 00:06:00.560 --> 00:06:03.699 the party line. Yeah. And then you have the recent 00:06:03.699 --> 00:06:06.480 loss in that R -plus -15 state Senate district 00:06:06.480 --> 00:06:08.620 in Pennsylvania. It really shows that no seat 00:06:08.620 --> 00:06:10.819 is safe right now. No seat is safe at all. And 00:06:10.819 --> 00:06:14.120 Stefanik's own district, NY -21, is R -plus -8. 00:06:14.199 --> 00:06:16.779 Right. If she left for the UN and that seat flipped, 00:06:17.060 --> 00:06:19.740 we could end up with an evenly split house. So 00:06:19.740 --> 00:06:22.720 that scenario, maybe not the most likely outcome, 00:06:23.000 --> 00:06:25.540 but it's a big enough risk that the administration 00:06:25.540 --> 00:06:29.110 can't ignore it. Yeah. So Stefanik, despite all 00:06:29.110 --> 00:06:31.069 her loyalty to the former president, is just 00:06:31.069 --> 00:06:34.470 another example of political expediency. Wow. 00:06:34.910 --> 00:06:38.189 So let's move on to what some are calling a war 00:06:38.189 --> 00:06:41.509 on federal employees. War on federal employees. 00:06:41.769 --> 00:06:44.110 Yeah, it looks like there's a longer term strategy 00:06:44.110 --> 00:06:46.569 here. And it seems to be driven by people like 00:06:46.569 --> 00:06:49.509 Musk and Trump. OK. And they want to shrink the 00:06:49.509 --> 00:06:53.189 federal workforce. By a lot. And the tactic might 00:06:53.189 --> 00:06:55.670 not actually be to win the legal battles that 00:06:55.670 --> 00:06:57.250 are inevitably going to come up when they try 00:06:57.250 --> 00:06:59.350 to do this. Oh, interesting. Instead, the goal 00:06:59.350 --> 00:07:02.529 might be to make it so hard and so costly to 00:07:02.529 --> 00:07:04.930 fight back against job losses that people will 00:07:04.930 --> 00:07:08.850 just give up and quit. Ah, clever. So even if 00:07:08.850 --> 00:07:11.629 the courts later on side with the employees and 00:07:11.629 --> 00:07:13.209 order them to get their jobs back, the damage 00:07:13.209 --> 00:07:15.870 is already done. Exactly. The disruption, the 00:07:15.870 --> 00:07:18.470 uncertainty. It's already achieved the goal of 00:07:18.470 --> 00:07:20.470 cutting the workforce. That's pretty devious. 00:07:20.730 --> 00:07:22.529 Right. We're already seeing some of this happening. 00:07:22.750 --> 00:07:26.269 Oh, really? HHS under Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced 00:07:26.269 --> 00:07:30.870 plans to get rid of 10 ,000 jobs. 10 ,000. 10 00:07:30.870 --> 00:07:33.870 ,000. That's a lot. It is. But what's interesting 00:07:33.870 --> 00:07:36.680 is that the commentary we're seeing suggests 00:07:36.680 --> 00:07:39.339 that this is more about PR and trying to weaken 00:07:39.339 --> 00:07:42.180 the agency's ability to do its job. It's not 00:07:42.180 --> 00:07:45.120 about actual reform. So it's different from how 00:07:45.120 --> 00:07:48.199 real reform usually happens, which is more phased. 00:07:48.399 --> 00:07:50.360 You know, they follow the existing legal frameworks 00:07:50.360 --> 00:07:53.160 and they usually rely more on natural attrition, 00:07:53.319 --> 00:07:56.360 like retirements and resignations, not mass firings. 00:07:56.399 --> 00:07:59.160 Yeah. The scale and the suddenness of these cuts 00:07:59.160 --> 00:08:00.899 make it seem like there's something else going 00:08:00.899 --> 00:08:03.180 on here, something more political. I see. And 00:08:03.180 --> 00:08:05.389 then there's Trump's executive order. This one 00:08:05.389 --> 00:08:08.550 is targeting federal employee unions and it's 00:08:08.550 --> 00:08:11.029 going after their ability to do collective bargaining. 00:08:11.470 --> 00:08:13.910 Wow. Now the whole basis of this order rests 00:08:13.910 --> 00:08:15.990 on what they're calling a novel interpretation 00:08:15.990 --> 00:08:19.870 of the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978. 1978. 00:08:20.449 --> 00:08:22.129 1978. That's a while ago. It is. So what was 00:08:22.129 --> 00:08:24.389 that act about? It was supposed to establish 00:08:24.389 --> 00:08:27.170 merit -based hiring and provide certain protections 00:08:27.170 --> 00:08:31.250 for federal employees. Okay. But this new interpretation 00:08:31.250 --> 00:08:34.070 basically claims that any kind of union activity 00:08:34.070 --> 00:08:36.250 automatically interferes with how the government 00:08:36.250 --> 00:08:39.470 works. So it's a very broad stroke. Very broad 00:08:39.470 --> 00:08:42.330 and very aggressive. It wants to really cripple 00:08:42.330 --> 00:08:45.230 the power of federal employee unions. And it's 00:08:45.230 --> 00:08:47.809 interesting. The analysis raises the question 00:08:47.809 --> 00:08:49.970 of whether union leaders who supported Trump 00:08:49.970 --> 00:08:52.529 before, like the head of the Teamsters, will 00:08:52.529 --> 00:08:54.909 they wake up to this attack on their members' 00:08:55.149 --> 00:08:58.539 rights? That's a good question. A very good question. 00:08:58.899 --> 00:09:00.860 So let's talk about another area where we're 00:09:00.860 --> 00:09:03.860 seeing what's being called a war on women. Oh, 00:09:03.860 --> 00:09:06.340 no. Specifically when it comes to abortion rights. 00:09:06.360 --> 00:09:08.879 Right. And there are some really worrying things 00:09:08.879 --> 00:09:10.700 happening. Like what? Like what's going on in 00:09:10.700 --> 00:09:13.379 Texas with AG Ken Paxton? Yeah, what's he doing? 00:09:13.460 --> 00:09:16.019 He's trying to punish an OBGYN who's not even 00:09:16.019 --> 00:09:18.820 in Texas. Oh, wow. For providing abortion pills. 00:09:18.840 --> 00:09:21.940 What? And legally it's questionable whether Texas 00:09:21.940 --> 00:09:24.700 law even applies to actions taken in another 00:09:24.700 --> 00:09:26.840 state. Yeah, that seems a little shaky. Right. 00:09:27.159 --> 00:09:29.799 But Paxton managed to get a judgment from a Texas 00:09:29.799 --> 00:09:32.240 court, and now he's trying to enforce it in New 00:09:32.240 --> 00:09:34.940 York. And are they going for it? No. New York 00:09:34.940 --> 00:09:37.899 is refusing to comply, which they should. This 00:09:37.899 --> 00:09:39.940 seems more about making a political statement 00:09:39.940 --> 00:09:42.539 than any real legal action. It really does. And 00:09:42.539 --> 00:09:44.159 then there's Georgia. They're thinking about 00:09:44.159 --> 00:09:46.519 a near total abortion ban. A near total ban. 00:09:46.759 --> 00:09:50.100 Yeah. And the analysis really emphasizes the 00:09:50.100 --> 00:09:52.779 negative impact these kinds of laws have on maternal 00:09:52.779 --> 00:09:56.039 health. Like, doctors may hesitate to do what 00:09:56.039 --> 00:09:58.440 they need to do even if the mother's life is 00:09:58.440 --> 00:09:59.720 in danger. Because they're afraid of getting 00:09:59.720 --> 00:10:02.120 in trouble. Exactly. Yeah. But the most shocking 00:10:02.120 --> 00:10:05.919 story is this case in Georgia. This woman was 00:10:05.919 --> 00:10:09.019 arrested after she had a miscarriage. Oh my gosh. 00:10:09.240 --> 00:10:11.820 And the coroner's report confirmed it was natural 00:10:11.820 --> 00:10:14.980 and that the fetus was not viable. But they still 00:10:14.980 --> 00:10:18.559 arrested her. What? They charged her with concealing 00:10:18.559 --> 00:10:21.059 the death of another person and abandonment of 00:10:21.059 --> 00:10:23.980 a dead body. That's awful. And she's still being 00:10:23.980 --> 00:10:26.200 detained. It's really disturbing. It shows this 00:10:26.200 --> 00:10:29.019 dangerous trend of how miscarriages are being 00:10:29.019 --> 00:10:31.179 viewed and how they're being criminalized. I 00:10:31.179 --> 00:10:32.820 mean, the commentary makes a really good point 00:10:32.820 --> 00:10:36.590 here. Even people who oppose abortion, most of 00:10:36.590 --> 00:10:39.610 them believe in exceptions for rape, incest, 00:10:39.909 --> 00:10:41.889 or when the mother's life is in danger. Yeah, 00:10:42.110 --> 00:10:43.970 that's pretty standard. They don't want to imprison 00:10:43.970 --> 00:10:45.970 women who've gone through a miscarriage. It's 00:10:45.970 --> 00:10:48.789 tragic. These cases suggest that there's a much 00:10:48.789 --> 00:10:53.029 more extreme, even inhumane agenda at play. Absolutely. 00:10:53.190 --> 00:10:56.299 And it forces us to think about whether what 00:10:56.299 --> 00:10:58.919 the anti -choice movement says it wants actually 00:10:58.919 --> 00:11:00.899 matches up with what's actually happening because 00:11:00.899 --> 00:11:03.580 of their policies. Because when you have policies 00:11:03.580 --> 00:11:06.360 that criminalize doctors, put women's health 00:11:06.360 --> 00:11:08.899 at risk, and threaten to jail women who have 00:11:08.899 --> 00:11:11.759 miscarriages, I mean that's a war on women. It 00:11:11.759 --> 00:11:14.179 is. Now let's switch gears again and talk about 00:11:14.179 --> 00:11:17.299 the power of visuals. Okay. Seeing is believing. 00:11:17.759 --> 00:11:20.360 Right. And we're seeing some strong video evidence 00:11:20.360 --> 00:11:22.919 that's really shaping how people view things. 00:11:23.059 --> 00:11:25.120 Like what? Like the administration's approach 00:11:25.120 --> 00:11:28.399 to immigration. OK. So DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, 00:11:28.919 --> 00:11:30.600 she went on this trip to El Salvador and it was 00:11:30.600 --> 00:11:33.960 all filmed. And she's using these deported Venezuelans 00:11:33.960 --> 00:11:37.220 as a backdrop while she's criticizing immigrants. 00:11:37.279 --> 00:11:39.899 Wow. Now the administration labeled these people 00:11:39.899 --> 00:11:42.860 as gang members. Right. But there's often not 00:11:42.860 --> 00:11:45.559 much proof to back that up. And there have already 00:11:45.559 --> 00:11:48.580 been legal challenges to these. So to use them 00:11:48.580 --> 00:11:51.679 as props this way, especially if they can be 00:11:51.679 --> 00:11:53.899 considered prisoners of war under the Geneva 00:11:53.899 --> 00:11:57.759 Conventions because of that making war justification 00:11:57.759 --> 00:12:00.519 they use for the deportation. Right. It raises 00:12:00.519 --> 00:12:03.480 serious ethical and maybe even legal questions. 00:12:03.519 --> 00:12:05.980 It really does. And then we're seeing this increasing 00:12:05.980 --> 00:12:08.980 trend of targeting Muslim grad students. What 00:12:08.980 --> 00:12:10.960 do you mean? We've seen the arrest of this Iranian 00:12:10.960 --> 00:12:13.740 national visas revoked for hundreds of others. 00:12:13.799 --> 00:12:16.480 Wow. But it's the footage of Ramesa Ozturk's 00:12:16.480 --> 00:12:19.000 arrest in Boston that's really sparked outrage. 00:12:19.259 --> 00:12:21.720 What happened? So they arrested her for, get 00:12:21.720 --> 00:12:25.100 this, allegedly glorifying and supporting terrorists 00:12:25.100 --> 00:12:28.120 based on an op -ed she co -authored in her college 00:12:28.120 --> 00:12:31.500 newspaper. OK. And the op -ed was pro -Palestine. 00:12:31.519 --> 00:12:33.340 Oh, wow. And you see the video. She's arrested 00:12:33.340 --> 00:12:36.159 by multiple plainclothes individuals. Oh, that's 00:12:36.159 --> 00:12:38.659 got to be terrifying. It is. I mean, people immediately 00:12:38.639 --> 00:12:41.539 thought it was a kidnapping. I bet. And the analysis 00:12:41.539 --> 00:12:46.299 here connects these arrests directly to an attempt 00:12:46.299 --> 00:12:49.399 to shut down dissent on college campuses. It 00:12:49.399 --> 00:12:52.059 reminds us of how student protests have affected 00:12:52.059 --> 00:12:55.159 administrations in the past. Yeah, but like the 00:12:55.159 --> 00:12:57.840 commentary said, this kind of heavy -handed approach 00:12:57.840 --> 00:13:00.740 can actually backfire. How so? Well, it can lead 00:13:00.740 --> 00:13:03.419 to even bigger and louder protests once people 00:13:03.419 --> 00:13:04.980 see what's happening. And we're already seeing 00:13:04.980 --> 00:13:07.840 that in Boston. That's true. Whether this strategy 00:13:07.840 --> 00:13:10.139 of silencing free speech will actually work in 00:13:10.139 --> 00:13:12.559 the long run, that's debatable. Right, because 00:13:12.559 --> 00:13:15.559 as the commentary suggests, these actions can 00:13:15.559 --> 00:13:18.019 lead to more anger. The dissent spreads wider. 00:13:18.139 --> 00:13:20.740 It could reach a breaking point. It could. And 00:13:20.740 --> 00:13:23.320 the video evidence in Osterk's case has really 00:13:23.320 --> 00:13:25.960 galvanized people. It sparked a huge public response. 00:13:26.240 --> 00:13:28.299 It has. So let's move on to what the analysis 00:13:28.299 --> 00:13:32.100 calls schadenfreude. Schadenfreude. Yep. focusing 00:13:32.100 --> 00:13:35.320 on Vice President J .D. Vance. Oh, Vance? Remember 00:13:35.320 --> 00:13:38.019 his photo op in Greenland? Oh, yeah. Didn't exactly 00:13:38.019 --> 00:13:40.440 go to plan? No, it did not. The Greenlanders 00:13:40.440 --> 00:13:42.659 were actually open to meeting with his wife at 00:13:42.659 --> 00:13:46.049 first. Oh, really? But then as soon as... Vance 00:13:46.049 --> 00:13:48.629 was added to the itinerary. They withdrew all 00:13:48.629 --> 00:13:51.549 the invitations. Wow. They saw it as a propaganda 00:13:51.549 --> 00:13:54.710 stunt. Ouch. They felt like it was about promoting 00:13:54.710 --> 00:13:56.690 the idea that Greenland wants to join the US, 00:13:56.769 --> 00:13:58.889 not about building any real connection. Yeah, 00:13:59.049 --> 00:14:01.129 about a good look. Not at all. And this ties 00:14:01.129 --> 00:14:04.529 into a larger skepticism about Vance taking over 00:14:04.529 --> 00:14:07.289 the so -called Meggie throne. So people don't 00:14:07.289 --> 00:14:10.389 see him as the heir apparent. Not really. And 00:14:10.389 --> 00:14:12.870 the analysis outlines three reasons why. OK, 00:14:12.950 --> 00:14:15.289 I'm listening. First, there's this perception 00:14:15.289 --> 00:14:18.330 of him being weird. Weird? Yeah. And whether 00:14:18.330 --> 00:14:21.190 that image fits with what Trump wants in a successor. 00:14:21.350 --> 00:14:23.330 Right. Then there's the fact that Vance has shown 00:14:23.330 --> 00:14:25.230 some independent thinking. Remember his involvement 00:14:25.230 --> 00:14:27.429 in the signal chat? Yeah, yeah. And then there's 00:14:27.429 --> 00:14:29.070 this interesting point. As a vice president, 00:14:29.230 --> 00:14:32.100 he's basically unfireable. He is. So there's 00:14:32.100 --> 00:14:34.220 that lack of leverage. Yeah. Especially when 00:14:34.220 --> 00:14:36.720 you think about how the former president likes 00:14:36.720 --> 00:14:39.460 to operate. Yeah, good point. And then there's 00:14:39.460 --> 00:14:42.379 a comparison to Mike Pence's time as VP. OK, 00:14:42.440 --> 00:14:44.740 I see where you're going with this. Vance is 00:14:44.740 --> 00:14:47.159 already getting assigned these kind of embarrassing 00:14:47.159 --> 00:14:49.759 tasks like the Greenland trip. It's like they're 00:14:49.759 --> 00:14:52.720 sidelining him. It seems that way. So to finish 00:14:52.720 --> 00:14:54.820 up, let's talk about something the analysis calls 00:14:54.820 --> 00:14:58.360 Freud and Freud. This time, it's about the Unification 00:14:58.360 --> 00:15:01.139 Church of Japan. The Unification Church. Yeah. 00:15:01.519 --> 00:15:03.919 And there have been some interesting developments. 00:15:04.240 --> 00:15:07.279 Ro, tell me in. So it's been almost three years 00:15:07.279 --> 00:15:10.700 since Shinzo Abe was assassinated. And the assassin 00:15:10.700 --> 00:15:13.259 explicitly stated that he do it because of the 00:15:13.259 --> 00:15:15.139 unification church. Right. He said they were 00:15:15.139 --> 00:15:17.740 financially exploiting his family and that they 00:15:17.740 --> 00:15:20.820 had deep ties to the LDP, the Liberal Democratic 00:15:20.820 --> 00:15:23.419 Party, which is the ruling party. Right. Right. 00:15:23.639 --> 00:15:25.340 I remember this. So what's crazy is that the 00:15:25.340 --> 00:15:27.480 Japanese government actually investigated these 00:15:27.480 --> 00:15:29.799 claims. Wow. They took it seriously. They did. 00:15:30.039 --> 00:15:33.080 And they found out it was all true. No way. Yeah. 00:15:33.279 --> 00:15:36.600 So the government took legal action against the 00:15:36.600 --> 00:15:39.200 Unification Church. Good for them. And they won 00:15:39.200 --> 00:15:41.080 in court. So now the church is going to lose 00:15:41.080 --> 00:15:43.460 its tax exempt status, and they have to give 00:15:43.460 --> 00:15:45.460 back all the money they got through these shady 00:15:45.460 --> 00:15:48.320 practices. So justice was served. It seems like 00:15:48.320 --> 00:15:51.120 it. And it's important to note that this isn't 00:15:51.120 --> 00:15:53.000 the first time the Japanese government has had 00:15:53.000 --> 00:15:55.240 to step in and deal with a religious group that 00:15:55.240 --> 00:15:57.820 was abusing its power and exploiting people. 00:15:57.840 --> 00:16:00.940 Oh, really? The analysis mentions two other times 00:16:00.940 --> 00:16:02.960 where they had to do something similar. And it's 00:16:02.960 --> 00:16:05.220 worth remembering that the Unification Church 00:16:05.220 --> 00:16:07.679 has a history of getting close to Republican 00:16:07.679 --> 00:16:10.120 presidents in the U .S. Interesting. With the 00:16:10.120 --> 00:16:13.360 exception of Gerald Ford, of course. So as we 00:16:13.360 --> 00:16:15.919 wrap up this deep dive, it's really clear that 00:16:15.919 --> 00:16:18.039 all of these political things happening aren't 00:16:18.039 --> 00:16:21.019 happening in a vacuum. They're totally tied to 00:16:21.019 --> 00:16:23.980 the bigger economic picture. And the policies 00:16:23.980 --> 00:16:26.279 being made are creating a lot of uncertainty 00:16:26.279 --> 00:16:28.980 about the future. What's really fascinating to 00:16:28.980 --> 00:16:32.700 me is how disconnected it all seems. We have 00:16:33.019 --> 00:16:35.419 these political actions like increasing tariffs, 00:16:35.419 --> 00:16:38.019 going after federal employees, cracking down 00:16:38.019 --> 00:16:40.360 on abortion rights. But then you look at the 00:16:40.360 --> 00:16:43.480 economic forecasts. A lot of them are predicting 00:16:43.480 --> 00:16:46.700 slower economic growth, higher inflation. Which 00:16:46.700 --> 00:16:49.279 are a direct result of those policies. Exactly. 00:16:49.360 --> 00:16:51.779 So it makes you wonder about the long -term consequences 00:16:51.779 --> 00:16:54.179 of all these interconnected trends. It really 00:16:54.179 --> 00:16:56.559 does. I mean, we're seeing norms being eroded, 00:16:57.019 --> 00:16:59.620 the real effects of trade policies, the political 00:16:59.620 --> 00:17:02.080 landscape shifting. Yeah. It makes you wonder 00:17:02.080 --> 00:17:04.339 what... expected things might happen because 00:17:04.339 --> 00:17:06.759 of all of this. It really does. What's going 00:17:06.759 --> 00:17:08.359 to come out of this mess that we haven't even 00:17:08.359 --> 00:17:10.700 thought of yet? Yeah, it's definitely something 00:17:10.700 --> 00:17:12.940 we all need to keep in mind as we figure out 00:17:12.940 --> 00:17:16.039 how to navigate the days ahead. Absolutely. Thanks 00:17:16.039 --> 00:17:18.160 for joining us on this deep dive. We'll see you 00:17:18.160 --> 00:17:19.019 next time. See you next time.