WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.859 Welcome to with a deep dive. You know, today 00:00:02.859 --> 00:00:05.360 we're going to hand you this like curated stack 00:00:05.360 --> 00:00:07.860 of recent info, right? It's like your shortcut 00:00:07.860 --> 00:00:10.099 to understanding what's really going on out there, 00:00:10.099 --> 00:00:12.859 you know, without getting bogged down in endless 00:00:12.859 --> 00:00:15.619 details. We're diving into three key areas, the 00:00:15.619 --> 00:00:17.640 things you really need to know about. Like, first 00:00:17.640 --> 00:00:21.339 we've got this fresh economic snapshot and it's 00:00:21.339 --> 00:00:24.000 painting a somewhat confusing picture. Then there's 00:00:24.000 --> 00:00:26.600 this political scandal and it has some pretty 00:00:26.600 --> 00:00:29.480 big ramifications. And lastly, some surprising 00:00:29.480 --> 00:00:34.020 developments in the world of elections and key 00:00:34.020 --> 00:00:36.420 political figures out there. Our goal here is 00:00:36.420 --> 00:00:39.149 to... extract the really crucial insights for 00:00:39.149 --> 00:00:42.210 you, understand their potential impact, you know, 00:00:42.409 --> 00:00:44.869 and just keep it all clear and concise. Exactly. 00:00:45.549 --> 00:00:47.590 We've done all the heavy lifting for you, right? 00:00:47.649 --> 00:00:49.130 Sorting through all that data and the headlines, 00:00:49.210 --> 00:00:51.609 all that. We're looking for those underlying 00:00:51.609 --> 00:00:53.630 signals, and more importantly, trying to figure 00:00:53.630 --> 00:00:55.710 out why any of this should even matter to you. 00:00:56.009 --> 00:00:58.590 Okay, so let's jump right into it, huh? This 00:00:58.590 --> 00:01:02.619 economic review. from around March 21st, 2025. 00:01:02.840 --> 00:01:04.239 It really feels like we're getting these mixed 00:01:04.239 --> 00:01:06.519 messages. You know, like, February retail sales, 00:01:06.519 --> 00:01:11.319 they edged up, right? 0 .2%. But that was quite 00:01:11.319 --> 00:01:12.980 a bit below what everyone was expecting, like 00:01:12.980 --> 00:01:16.280 0 .6%. And then, to top it all off, January's 00:01:16.280 --> 00:01:19.040 figures got revised. Down to a pretty significant 00:01:19.040 --> 00:01:21.799 month ago, 1 .2%. I don't know about you, but 00:01:21.799 --> 00:01:23.560 it's enough to make me scratch my head. Yeah, 00:01:23.579 --> 00:01:24.959 it does. But what's really interesting to think 00:01:24.959 --> 00:01:26.819 about here, right, is that... even with that 00:01:26.819 --> 00:01:29.819 slower February, overall retail sales, they're 00:01:29.819 --> 00:01:32.620 still up by like 3 .1 % compared to this time 00:01:32.620 --> 00:01:36.280 last year. And that's actually a faster pace 00:01:36.280 --> 00:01:38.159 than the latest inflation numbers, which were 00:01:38.159 --> 00:01:41.340 at 2 .8%, as measured by the CPI, the Consumer 00:01:41.340 --> 00:01:44.019 Price Index. So while the month -to -month growth 00:01:44.019 --> 00:01:45.840 was a little bit sluggish the year over your 00:01:45.840 --> 00:01:48.560 picture, it suggests that consumers, at least 00:01:48.560 --> 00:01:51.180 in general, they might still have some purchasing 00:01:51.180 --> 00:01:53.480 power. Yeah, that's a key point about the real 00:01:53.480 --> 00:01:57.180 purchasing power. And it gets even more nuanced 00:01:57.180 --> 00:01:58.859 when you look at what's called the retail sales 00:01:58.859 --> 00:02:03.239 control group. OK. This is like a specific subset 00:02:03.239 --> 00:02:06.879 of that data. Gotcha. It excludes things like 00:02:06.879 --> 00:02:09.439 car purchases and gas, things that can change 00:02:09.439 --> 00:02:12.539 quite a bit each month. So looking at the control 00:02:12.539 --> 00:02:16.460 group gives us a clearer picture of underlying 00:02:16.460 --> 00:02:19.300 consumer demand for other goods. That figure, 00:02:19.300 --> 00:02:22.819 it actually jumped. by a solid 1 % in February. 00:02:22.939 --> 00:02:25.219 That was way stronger than the 0 .2 % that was 00:02:25.219 --> 00:02:27.960 expected. So it's almost like two totally different 00:02:27.960 --> 00:02:29.699 parts of the economy are telling two different 00:02:29.699 --> 00:02:32.780 stories. If the control group is so strong, then 00:02:32.780 --> 00:02:35.719 what do you think explains that weaker headline 00:02:35.719 --> 00:02:38.919 number? Could it be a specific sector that's 00:02:38.919 --> 00:02:41.400 really struggling out there? Yeah, that's a really 00:02:41.400 --> 00:02:45.199 crucial question. And this difference, you know? 00:02:45.400 --> 00:02:47.900 It highlights how consumer behavior, it's not 00:02:47.900 --> 00:02:50.979 like one big uniform thing. The pullback we're 00:02:50.979 --> 00:02:53.900 seeing in things like motor vehicles, maybe that's 00:02:53.900 --> 00:02:55.740 because of higher interest rates, right? Making 00:02:55.740 --> 00:02:57.780 it more expensive to finance those purchases. 00:02:58.740 --> 00:03:01.300 Or maybe that pent up demand from earlier, it's 00:03:01.300 --> 00:03:03.680 been satisfied. The strength we're seeing in 00:03:03.680 --> 00:03:06.099 that control group though, it reflects spending 00:03:06.099 --> 00:03:08.199 on a whole bunch of different goods. So it suggests 00:03:08.199 --> 00:03:11.500 that that fundamental consumer appetite, it isn't 00:03:11.500 --> 00:03:13.500 necessarily going down across the board. It really 00:03:13.500 --> 00:03:16.860 could be pointing to a more segmented economic 00:03:16.860 --> 00:03:18.659 picture out there where some areas are holding 00:03:18.659 --> 00:03:20.639 up better than others. Okay, now let's switch 00:03:20.639 --> 00:03:22.219 gears here a little bit. Sure. Let's look at 00:03:22.219 --> 00:03:25.280 the housing market. Yeah. We saw a pretty big 00:03:25.280 --> 00:03:27.659 rebound in housing starts in February, a jump 00:03:27.659 --> 00:03:31.280 of 11 .2%. Wow. That brings the annualized rate 00:03:31.280 --> 00:03:35.860 to 1 .501 million. OK. That comfortably beat 00:03:35.860 --> 00:03:38.580 expectations, which were only around $1 .385 00:03:38.580 --> 00:03:40.580 million. So that surge, that's definitely something 00:03:40.580 --> 00:03:42.580 that catches your eye. What's really interesting 00:03:42.580 --> 00:03:46.300 about it is that it was driven by increases in 00:03:46.300 --> 00:03:48.360 both single -family and multi -family housing 00:03:48.360 --> 00:03:51.680 starts. So both types of housing are contributing 00:03:51.680 --> 00:03:54.919 to that growth. OK. However, if we kind of zoom 00:03:54.919 --> 00:03:57.340 out a bit, right? Even with that really strong 00:03:57.340 --> 00:04:00.560 February overall housing starts are still down 00:04:00.560 --> 00:04:04.539 by 2 .9 percent compared to a year ago So you 00:04:04.539 --> 00:04:07.960 have this positive short -term trend, but the 00:04:07.960 --> 00:04:10.120 longer term picture it suggests that there's 00:04:10.120 --> 00:04:13.180 there's still some Moderation happening in the 00:04:13.180 --> 00:04:15.599 construction sector. I see I see and we also 00:04:15.599 --> 00:04:17.300 saw that building permits which can be a good 00:04:17.300 --> 00:04:20.300 indicator of Future construction they dipped 00:04:20.300 --> 00:04:23.199 a little bit like by 1 .2 percent. But they did 00:04:23.199 --> 00:04:25.339 still narrowly beat expectations. Feels like 00:04:25.339 --> 00:04:27.800 the housing market's just like trying to decide 00:04:27.800 --> 00:04:30.420 its next move. Yeah. You know? Yeah. That's a 00:04:30.420 --> 00:04:32.720 good way to put it. And you know, the report, 00:04:32.800 --> 00:04:35.139 it does mention a possible factor here, something 00:04:35.139 --> 00:04:37.839 that could be influencing those numbers. January's 00:04:37.839 --> 00:04:39.939 unusually cold weather, you know, that could 00:04:39.939 --> 00:04:43.040 have put a temporary halt to some construction 00:04:43.040 --> 00:04:45.379 projects. So that would make February's rebound 00:04:45.379 --> 00:04:48.060 look even more significant, right, as those projects 00:04:48.060 --> 00:04:51.269 get back on track. Exactly. Okay, so moving on 00:04:51.269 --> 00:04:53.649 to the Federal Reserve now, they decided to keep 00:04:53.649 --> 00:04:56.889 the main policy interest rate steady in that 00:04:56.889 --> 00:05:00.269 4 .25 % to 4 .50 % range, which wasn't a huge 00:05:00.269 --> 00:05:03.310 surprise, but they released a statement. And 00:05:03.310 --> 00:05:05.569 Chairman Powell, he spoke afterwards, and it 00:05:05.569 --> 00:05:08.389 gave us some insight into their thinking. What 00:05:08.389 --> 00:05:11.350 stood out to you from their assessment of the 00:05:11.350 --> 00:05:13.670 economy? Well, they said that, quote, economic 00:05:13.670 --> 00:05:16.170 activity has continued to expand at a solid pace 00:05:16.170 --> 00:05:19.189 and labor market conditions remain solid. Which, 00:05:19.490 --> 00:05:20.850 you know, on the surface, that sounds pretty 00:05:20.850 --> 00:05:23.790 positive, right? But the really important part 00:05:23.790 --> 00:05:27.430 is that they still believe inflation remains 00:05:27.430 --> 00:05:29.889 somewhat elevated. That's still their biggest 00:05:29.889 --> 00:05:33.170 concern. And, you know, if we consider Powell's 00:05:33.170 --> 00:05:35.829 press conference, I think the overall tone was 00:05:35.829 --> 00:05:38.769 more what we call hawkish, right? So even though 00:05:38.769 --> 00:05:40.730 they didn't raise rates this time, it felt like 00:05:40.730 --> 00:05:44.329 they're getting a little less tolerant of inflation. 00:05:44.550 --> 00:05:46.709 Maybe their target for inflation is creeping 00:05:46.709 --> 00:05:49.860 up a bit. and their outlook for economic growth, 00:05:49.920 --> 00:05:53.360 maybe that's become a little more subdued, right? 00:05:53.860 --> 00:05:55.639 It signals that they're still laser -focused 00:05:55.639 --> 00:05:58.060 on bringing inflation down, even as that means 00:05:58.060 --> 00:06:00.379 potentially accepting slower economic growth 00:06:00.379 --> 00:06:03.560 to get there. So how did the markets react to 00:06:03.560 --> 00:06:05.579 all this economic news, all these different things 00:06:05.579 --> 00:06:08.379 going on? It seems like, despite those underlying 00:06:08.379 --> 00:06:12.699 concerns, for the week ending March 21st, 2025, 00:06:13.399 --> 00:06:16.889 we actually saw positive returns across all those 00:06:16.889 --> 00:06:19.790 major US stock indices, the Dow Jones, it actually 00:06:19.790 --> 00:06:22.649 led the way with a gain of 1 .21%. That's right. 00:06:22.769 --> 00:06:25.110 And it wasn't just those big established companies 00:06:25.110 --> 00:06:27.449 either. Right. Mid cap and small cap stocks, 00:06:27.490 --> 00:06:29.649 they also performed well during that week. And 00:06:29.649 --> 00:06:32.819 then if you look at developed international equities 00:06:32.819 --> 00:06:35.399 those continue to have these like really impressive 00:06:35.399 --> 00:06:38.819 gains for the year so far and even the fixed 00:06:38.819 --> 00:06:40.699 income market saw some positive movement you 00:06:40.699 --> 00:06:43.360 know interest rates dipped just a bit probably 00:06:43.360 --> 00:06:46.199 because of those those consumer spending concerns 00:06:46.199 --> 00:06:47.759 that we were talking about earlier it seems like 00:06:47.759 --> 00:06:50.939 the markets reacting in this in this kind of 00:06:50.939 --> 00:06:53.180 nuanced way, right? They're acknowledging that 00:06:53.180 --> 00:06:55.240 growth might slay down, but they're still finding 00:06:55.240 --> 00:06:57.420 opportunities out there. So bringing it all together, 00:06:57.639 --> 00:07:00.620 what's the main takeaway for us from this whole 00:07:00.620 --> 00:07:03.939 economic snapshot? I think I think the analyst 00:07:03.939 --> 00:07:05.620 perspective that really gets to the heart of 00:07:05.620 --> 00:07:08.860 it, you know, that somewhat disappointing retail 00:07:08.860 --> 00:07:11.060 sales data. It's creating some worries about 00:07:11.060 --> 00:07:13.319 how fast the economy will grow in the future. 00:07:13.759 --> 00:07:17.199 This concern about consumer spending may be weakening. 00:07:17.420 --> 00:07:19.560 That could actually become a bigger story than 00:07:19.560 --> 00:07:21.939 the Fed's decision to just hold rates steady. 00:07:22.259 --> 00:07:24.819 It really sets the stage for maybe a more cautious 00:07:24.819 --> 00:07:26.899 outlook on the economy over the next few months. 00:07:27.279 --> 00:07:29.339 OK, let's shift gears completely now. OK, let's 00:07:29.339 --> 00:07:31.399 move over to the political arena. We've got to 00:07:31.279 --> 00:07:34.800 dive into this teapot signal scandal, this thing 00:07:34.800 --> 00:07:37.660 involving the Trump administration. And it's 00:07:37.660 --> 00:07:40.439 as of March 26, 2025. This one's really grabbed 00:07:40.439 --> 00:07:44.759 people's attention. And at its core, it seems 00:07:44.759 --> 00:07:49.480 to be about this really significant last in judgment. 00:07:49.839 --> 00:07:53.300 Yeah, I think what's so striking is the the apparent 00:07:53.300 --> 00:07:56.060 casualness, you know, the way this really sensitive 00:07:56.060 --> 00:07:57.480 information was handled. We're talking about 00:07:57.480 --> 00:07:59.480 details about an upcoming military attack and 00:07:59.480 --> 00:08:01.519 they were accidentally shared with the editor 00:08:01.519 --> 00:08:03.779 of the Atlantic using the signal messaging app. 00:08:04.100 --> 00:08:06.319 That could have some huge consequences for national 00:08:06.319 --> 00:08:09.199 security and, you know, for international trust 00:08:09.199 --> 00:08:12.879 in the U .S. Absolutely. And the the immediate 00:08:12.879 --> 00:08:14.879 aftermath of this whole thing. It's been like 00:08:14.879 --> 00:08:17.339 watching a textbook example of a blame game. 00:08:17.480 --> 00:08:19.879 Right? You know, at first, it seemed like NSA 00:08:19.879 --> 00:08:21.959 Mike Waltz, he was taking the brunt of the criticism, 00:08:22.300 --> 00:08:24.100 supposedly because he accidentally added Jeffrey 00:08:24.100 --> 00:08:27.720 Goldberg to a group chat. But the report we looked 00:08:27.720 --> 00:08:30.300 at, it emphasizes that the real issue isn't about 00:08:30.300 --> 00:08:32.919 who got added. It's the fact that these really 00:08:32.919 --> 00:08:35.299 important, really sensitive discussions, they 00:08:35.299 --> 00:08:37.299 were happening on an app that wasn't secure. 00:08:37.399 --> 00:08:40.539 Right. It sounds like multiple officials, including 00:08:40.539 --> 00:08:42.779 Secretary of Defense Pete Hecsef, he was in the 00:08:42.779 --> 00:08:45.629 hot seat too. Maybe they were all... operating 00:08:45.629 --> 00:08:48.269 outside of the proper security protocol. Yeah, 00:08:48.750 --> 00:08:51.029 and Walt's, his response was really interesting. 00:08:51.070 --> 00:08:54.389 It was like this non -apology apology. You know, 00:08:54.389 --> 00:08:55.889 he said he takes some responsibility, but then 00:08:55.889 --> 00:08:58.990 he immediately goes on the attack. Calling Goldberg 00:08:58.990 --> 00:09:02.330 a scum, it's a strange way to address such a 00:09:02.330 --> 00:09:06.250 serious security issue. And what's even more 00:09:06.250 --> 00:09:08.769 interesting is there are these reports of a lot 00:09:08.769 --> 00:09:11.509 of anger. among Republicans behind the scenes, 00:09:11.750 --> 00:09:13.570 apparently a lot of them already had doubts about 00:09:13.570 --> 00:09:16.730 Waltz, and now people are comparing this to Mike 00:09:16.730 --> 00:09:19.210 Flynn's dismissal back in the day, suggesting 00:09:19.210 --> 00:09:21.730 that maybe Waltz's position in the administration, 00:09:21.789 --> 00:09:25.370 it might be shaky. Yeah, and these security concerns 00:09:25.370 --> 00:09:28.009 about using signal, they're really raising red 00:09:28.009 --> 00:09:29.809 flags. You know, Representative Don Bacon, he's 00:09:29.809 --> 00:09:31.669 a Republican, right, with a background in intelligence. 00:09:32.009 --> 00:09:35.049 He said, pretty confidently that Russia and China, 00:09:35.210 --> 00:09:37.269 they're actively listening in on communications 00:09:37.269 --> 00:09:39.750 happening on personal cell phones. Yeah. That 00:09:39.750 --> 00:09:42.889 warning from Rep. Bacon, it's pretty stark, you 00:09:42.889 --> 00:09:45.610 know? It underscores the inherent risks of using 00:09:45.610 --> 00:09:48.070 these communication channels that haven't been 00:09:48.070 --> 00:09:50.169 approved by the government for sensitive discussions. 00:09:50.470 --> 00:09:53.809 And then we have this anonymous IT expert, right? 00:09:53.830 --> 00:09:55.789 They've got tons of experience in federal law 00:09:55.789 --> 00:09:58.659 enforcement. They pointed out that Signal It's 00:09:58.659 --> 00:10:02.259 not Fed -ramped. That means it hasn't gone through 00:10:02.259 --> 00:10:05.100 this really rigorous security check that's required 00:10:05.100 --> 00:10:07.840 for anything the federal government uses, especially 00:10:07.840 --> 00:10:10.340 when they're handling really sensitive information. 00:10:10.539 --> 00:10:13.399 And this directly contradicts something that 00:10:13.399 --> 00:10:16.080 CIA Director John Ratcliffe apparently claimed. 00:10:16.559 --> 00:10:19.019 So this raises some serious questions about how 00:10:19.019 --> 00:10:22.179 well they understand and apply those security 00:10:22.179 --> 00:10:24.279 protocols, even at the highest levels of government. 00:10:24.379 --> 00:10:26.659 And this IT expert, they also emphasize that 00:10:27.019 --> 00:10:29.320 Even if people were using their personal phones, 00:10:29.779 --> 00:10:32.039 you know, official government devices, they have 00:10:32.039 --> 00:10:34.799 way better security, way harder to hack. Exactly. 00:10:34.899 --> 00:10:36.919 And then there's that report that Signal itself 00:10:36.919 --> 00:10:39.120 might have been hacked by Russia. Right, right. 00:10:39.340 --> 00:10:41.720 Which just adds another layer of risk to using 00:10:41.720 --> 00:10:44.120 it for sensitive communications. Yeah, it's not 00:10:44.120 --> 00:10:48.179 just a theoretical weakness anymore. Right. There's 00:10:48.179 --> 00:10:50.419 actual reporting that says... Hey, maybe this 00:10:50.419 --> 00:10:52.879 has already happened. But then you have this 00:10:52.879 --> 00:10:56.340 more cynical take, you know, the idea that maybe 00:10:56.340 --> 00:10:59.950 they use signal on purpose. to avoid creating 00:10:59.950 --> 00:11:02.809 official records of these conversations, to avoid 00:11:02.809 --> 00:11:06.110 oversight. Which, if that's true, opens up a 00:11:06.110 --> 00:11:09.250 whole new set of problems about transparency 00:11:09.250 --> 00:11:11.649 and accountability in the administration. And 00:11:11.649 --> 00:11:13.490 we know that Congress has been holding hearings, 00:11:13.690 --> 00:11:15.629 they're trying to do damage control, and the 00:11:15.629 --> 00:11:17.750 administration seemed to be saying, look, no 00:11:17.750 --> 00:11:20.320 classified information was actually shared. But 00:11:20.320 --> 00:11:23.139 that defense, you know, no classified information, 00:11:23.440 --> 00:11:26.379 it creates this Catch -22. Yeah. Because if it 00:11:26.379 --> 00:11:28.720 wasn't classified, then the Atlantic's editor, 00:11:28.919 --> 00:11:31.460 Jeffrey Goldberg, he could probably release those 00:11:31.460 --> 00:11:34.059 text messages, right? Right, right. But if the 00:11:34.059 --> 00:11:36.840 administration tries to stop him or maybe even 00:11:36.840 --> 00:11:39.000 tries to sue him, well, then they'd basically 00:11:39.000 --> 00:11:41.100 be admitting that the information was classified, 00:11:41.120 --> 00:11:43.240 right? And that would contradict everything they've 00:11:43.240 --> 00:11:45.980 said publicly. And it could even lead to accusations 00:11:45.980 --> 00:11:48.620 of perjury against those who testified under 00:11:48.620 --> 00:11:52.039 Ove. And the report really emphasizes how likely 00:11:52.039 --> 00:11:55.220 it is that details about an upcoming military 00:11:55.220 --> 00:11:57.639 strike that would be automatically classified 00:11:57.639 --> 00:12:01.419 right from the start. So. If Goldberg, you know, 00:12:01.519 --> 00:12:04.100 if he goes ahead and releases the info because 00:12:04.100 --> 00:12:05.940 the administration saying it's not classified 00:12:05.940 --> 00:12:08.139 and then it turns out there are classified details 00:12:08.139 --> 00:12:09.679 in there. Well, the administration is going to 00:12:09.679 --> 00:12:13.019 look really bad. Like they not only misled the 00:12:13.019 --> 00:12:15.460 public, but they also, you know, they potentially 00:12:15.460 --> 00:12:17.620 let classified information get out there just 00:12:17.620 --> 00:12:20.419 to try to manage this scandal. It's a it's a 00:12:20.419 --> 00:12:23.139 mess with some serious legal and political consequences. 00:12:23.259 --> 00:12:25.799 And as you might expect, those comparisons to 00:12:25.799 --> 00:12:27.799 Hillary Clinton's emails, those have started 00:12:27.799 --> 00:12:31.179 popping up again. Especially in, you know, right 00:12:31.179 --> 00:12:35.220 -leaning media. Right, her emails. But, you know, 00:12:35.320 --> 00:12:37.080 the report does a good job of explaining the 00:12:37.080 --> 00:12:39.279 key differences between these two situations. 00:12:39.899 --> 00:12:41.740 In Clinton's case, they did all these investigations, 00:12:42.120 --> 00:12:44.440 right? And they didn't find any evidence that 00:12:44.440 --> 00:12:46.600 anyone unauthorized got into her private server. 00:12:47.100 --> 00:12:49.639 And only a tiny fraction of those emails, they 00:12:49.639 --> 00:12:52.519 were actually deemed classified. And a lot of 00:12:52.519 --> 00:12:54.200 times they were classified after the fact or 00:12:54.200 --> 00:12:56.360 they were about stuff that was already public 00:12:56.360 --> 00:12:58.840 knowledge You know like news reports about drum 00:12:58.840 --> 00:13:01.399 strikes and things like that right this signal 00:13:01.399 --> 00:13:04.120 thing though. It's different We're talking about 00:13:04.120 --> 00:13:07.100 a real -time conversation right about a military 00:13:07.100 --> 00:13:09.419 operation That's about to happen and it's all 00:13:09.419 --> 00:13:11.940 happening on this insecure app something anyone 00:13:11.940 --> 00:13:14.080 can download it's a much more immediate risk 00:13:14.080 --> 00:13:17.480 and Potentially way more serious. Yeah, the consequences 00:13:17.480 --> 00:13:19.860 for international relations could be huge. Absolutely 00:13:19.960 --> 00:13:21.960 The report asked this really important question, 00:13:22.000 --> 00:13:25.299 you know? How can any country share anything 00:13:25.299 --> 00:13:27.519 sensitive, anything important with the U .S. 00:13:27.700 --> 00:13:29.889 right now? This whole thing, it makes the US 00:13:29.889 --> 00:13:32.970 look careless. They don't care about intelligence 00:13:32.970 --> 00:13:35.269 security, even at the highest levels of government. 00:13:35.690 --> 00:13:38.730 And that destroys the trust that's so important 00:13:38.730 --> 00:13:41.870 for sharing intelligence and cooperating on defense. 00:13:42.389 --> 00:13:44.490 It really increases instability around the world. 00:13:44.750 --> 00:13:46.149 And while we don't know yet what will happen 00:13:46.149 --> 00:13:49.769 to the individuals involved domestically, there's 00:13:49.769 --> 00:13:52.629 no doubt that this scandal shines a really bad 00:13:52.629 --> 00:13:55.230 light on how sensitive information is being handled. 00:13:55.600 --> 00:13:57.759 at the very top of the administration. Absolutely. 00:13:58.200 --> 00:14:00.720 OK, so shifting gears again. There's another 00:14:00.720 --> 00:14:02.919 major political development we need to talk about. 00:14:03.179 --> 00:14:05.340 It's this executive order from President Trump 00:14:05.340 --> 00:14:08.759 focused on, quote, election integrity. Dated 00:14:08.759 --> 00:14:13.159 March 26 2025. Okay, so this order it seems to 00:14:13.159 --> 00:14:15.620 be trying to address a lot of those Concerns 00:14:15.620 --> 00:14:17.399 that Republicans have had for a long time about 00:14:17.399 --> 00:14:20.340 how secure our elections are But it sounds like 00:14:20.340 --> 00:14:22.100 it's running into some roadblocks when it comes 00:14:22.100 --> 00:14:25.379 to Actually putting it into practice and even 00:14:25.379 --> 00:14:27.320 questions about whether it's legal. What's really 00:14:27.320 --> 00:14:31.049 interesting here is is just how much this executive 00:14:31.049 --> 00:14:33.450 order tries to do. It wants to require proof 00:14:33.450 --> 00:14:35.669 of citizenship for anyone registering to vote, 00:14:36.149 --> 00:14:37.950 stop the counting of any ballots that come in 00:14:37.950 --> 00:14:41.029 after election day, ban non -citizens from working 00:14:41.029 --> 00:14:43.429 as poll workers, make the federal government 00:14:43.429 --> 00:14:45.990 oversee election security, and give the feds 00:14:45.990 --> 00:14:48.490 the main role in prosecuting election fraud. 00:14:49.039 --> 00:14:52.039 But as the report accurately points out, the 00:14:52.039 --> 00:14:54.279 U .S. Constitution pretty much gives states the 00:14:54.279 --> 00:14:56.759 power to run their own elections. So a lot of 00:14:56.759 --> 00:14:58.659 what this executive order says, it's more like 00:14:58.659 --> 00:15:01.320 a symbolic gesture than something that can really 00:15:01.320 --> 00:15:04.340 be enforced. Exactly. Even that part about proof 00:15:04.340 --> 00:15:06.460 of citizenship, which has gotten a lot of attention, 00:15:06.879 --> 00:15:09.000 it mainly tells the Election Assistance Commission, 00:15:09.059 --> 00:15:12.340 the EAC, to change the federal voter registration 00:15:12.340 --> 00:15:15.600 form. But the EAC, it's designed to be independent 00:15:15.600 --> 00:15:17.500 and bipartisan, so it's not clear if they'll 00:15:17.500 --> 00:15:19.580 even go along with it. that. And even if the 00:15:19.580 --> 00:15:21.919 federal form changes, states have their own forms 00:15:21.919 --> 00:15:24.460 and processes for registering voters. So it wouldn't 00:15:24.460 --> 00:15:26.840 really matter what the federal form says. And 00:15:26.840 --> 00:15:28.779 saying they might withhold federal funding to 00:15:28.779 --> 00:15:31.279 force states to comply, that seems like it would 00:15:31.279 --> 00:15:33.759 just lead to a bunch of lawsuits. For sure. That 00:15:33.759 --> 00:15:36.019 would probably be seen as an overreach in federal 00:15:36.019 --> 00:15:39.700 power, totally unconstitutional. And it would 00:15:39.700 --> 00:15:42.460 be illegal to hold back those funds that Congress 00:15:42.460 --> 00:15:45.379 has already approved. The report calls this order 00:15:45.379 --> 00:15:47.200 performative. And I think that's a good way to 00:15:47.200 --> 00:15:49.429 put it. It's probably meant to reassure a part 00:15:49.429 --> 00:15:51.710 of the Republican base, make them feel like something's 00:15:51.710 --> 00:15:54.149 being done about election security, even though, 00:15:54.149 --> 00:15:56.529 you know, the order might not have any real legal 00:15:56.529 --> 00:15:58.710 standing or any way to actually make it happen. 00:15:59.029 --> 00:16:00.509 All right. Well, let's look at some actual election 00:16:00.509 --> 00:16:04.350 results now, specifically this Democratic upset 00:16:04.350 --> 00:16:07.210 in the Pennsylvania special election for State 00:16:07.210 --> 00:16:11.320 Senate District 36. Also. As of March 26, this 00:16:11.320 --> 00:16:13.840 was a real shocker. It really was. This district, 00:16:13.840 --> 00:16:16.899 it leans Republican, you know, by a lot, like 00:16:16.899 --> 00:16:19.440 15 points, according to the Partisan Voter Index. 00:16:19.759 --> 00:16:22.460 Trump won there by a similar margin back in 2024. 00:16:22.460 --> 00:16:25.960 And it's been held by Republicans for over 40 00:16:25.960 --> 00:16:29.039 years. So for Democrat James Malone to win here, 00:16:29.039 --> 00:16:30.980 that's a pretty big deal. And it wasn't even 00:16:30.980 --> 00:16:35.940 close. He won by over 500 votes. And for a special 00:16:35.940 --> 00:16:38.259 election, the turnout was surprisingly high. 00:16:38.639 --> 00:16:41.080 They even quoted a local voter in the report 00:16:41.080 --> 00:16:43.519 who said that the Republicans didn't really campaign 00:16:43.519 --> 00:16:45.840 much before the election. Maybe they thought 00:16:45.840 --> 00:16:47.720 their candidate was a shoo -in or maybe there 00:16:47.720 --> 00:16:50.240 wasn't much enthusiasm. Yeah, that kind of local 00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:53.059 perspective is really valuable. And it wasn't 00:16:53.059 --> 00:16:56.000 just this one race either. Democrats also won 00:16:56.000 --> 00:16:58.759 the special election for House District 35, although 00:16:58.759 --> 00:17:01.419 that district leans more Democratic anyway, and 00:17:01.419 --> 00:17:04.490 their win there was by a bigger margin. But what's 00:17:04.490 --> 00:17:06.569 interesting is that in both of these races, the 00:17:06.569 --> 00:17:08.970 Democrats got way more votes than anyone expected, 00:17:09.130 --> 00:17:12.369 like about 14 .5 percentage points more. And 00:17:12.369 --> 00:17:14.650 in districts that usually vote Republican, that 00:17:14.650 --> 00:17:16.710 kind of swing, you've got to pay attention to 00:17:16.710 --> 00:17:19.089 that. That is a huge difference. The report suggests 00:17:19.089 --> 00:17:21.710 that maybe this is an early sign of people turning 00:17:21.710 --> 00:17:24.450 against Trump, you know, a backlash. Yeah. Especially 00:17:24.450 --> 00:17:27.390 because Malone, his campaign even had this anti 00:17:27.390 --> 00:17:29.890 -Elon Musk theme, which could really resonate 00:17:29.890 --> 00:17:31.819 with certain voters. Definitely something to 00:17:31.819 --> 00:17:34.440 watch. The Wisconsin Supreme Court election that's 00:17:34.440 --> 00:17:36.720 coming up and the special elections in Florida, 00:17:36.839 --> 00:17:38.680 those will be key to see if this trend keeps 00:17:38.680 --> 00:17:41.059 going or if those Pennsylvania results were just 00:17:41.059 --> 00:17:44.000 a fluke. Even Governor DeSantis, he made a surprising 00:17:44.000 --> 00:17:46.539 comment recently saying that Republicans might 00:17:46.539 --> 00:17:49.660 not do as well as expected in the Florida. So 00:17:49.660 --> 00:17:52.119 maybe the GOP is sensing that things are changing. 00:17:52.359 --> 00:17:55.559 politically. Okay, let's move on to another area 00:17:55.559 --> 00:17:58.259 of political activity now. Yeah. A lawsuit filed 00:17:58.259 --> 00:18:00.640 by some staff and students at Columbia University 00:18:00.640 --> 00:18:03.220 against Trump administration policies. This is 00:18:03.220 --> 00:18:06.180 also from March 26. Okay. This lawsuit, it makes 00:18:06.180 --> 00:18:08.339 some pretty serious claims saying that constitutional 00:18:08.339 --> 00:18:11.039 rights are being violated. This lawsuit's alleging 00:18:11.039 --> 00:18:13.400 violations of the First and Fifth Amendments, 00:18:13.619 --> 00:18:15.819 specifically when it comes to the administration's 00:18:15.819 --> 00:18:19.099 policies on deportation. They say these policies 00:18:19.099 --> 00:18:21.579 are being used to target students and faculty, 00:18:21.720 --> 00:18:24.519 those who aren't U .S. citizens, if they've criticized 00:18:24.519 --> 00:18:26.819 Israel or said they support the Palestinians. 00:18:27.339 --> 00:18:29.960 The lawsuit claims that this is unconstitutional 00:18:29.960 --> 00:18:31.819 because it's based on what people are saying, 00:18:31.920 --> 00:18:34.380 their political views. And it says that these 00:18:34.380 --> 00:18:36.839 actions are creating a climate of fear that's 00:18:36.839 --> 00:18:39.200 stopping people from speaking freely and having 00:18:39.200 --> 00:18:41.079 academic freedom. Yeah, and the lawsuit gives 00:18:41.079 --> 00:18:44.500 specific examples. Like they talk about the alleged 00:18:44.500 --> 00:18:47.220 unlawful seizure of someone named Mahmoud Khalil. 00:18:47.579 --> 00:18:49.339 And it mentions reports that the administration 00:18:49.339 --> 00:18:51.119 is keeping these lists of students who have been 00:18:51.119 --> 00:18:54.299 sent to universities as a way to keep tabs on 00:18:54.299 --> 00:18:56.819 them and maybe target those who have pro -Palestinian 00:18:56.819 --> 00:18:59.400 views. It sounds like they're saying the administration 00:18:59.400 --> 00:19:01.740 is going around the established legal process 00:19:01.740 --> 00:19:04.099 when they decide that certain speech, certain 00:19:04.099 --> 00:19:06.579 things that people say should be grounds for 00:19:06.579 --> 00:19:09.079 kicking them out of the country. And there are 00:19:09.079 --> 00:19:13.819 reports of people being scared to speak out and 00:19:13.819 --> 00:19:16.960 self -censorship among members of the AAUP, the 00:19:16.960 --> 00:19:18.980 American Association of University Professors. 00:19:18.980 --> 00:19:21.819 And it's directly because of these policies and 00:19:21.819 --> 00:19:24.099 because people feel like they're being targeted 00:19:24.099 --> 00:19:27.039 for their political views. The people who filed 00:19:27.039 --> 00:19:29.819 this lawsuit, they're asking for a legal order 00:19:29.819 --> 00:19:33.180 to block. those executive orders and stop them 00:19:33.180 --> 00:19:35.759 from being enforced. It's interesting that Columbia 00:19:35.759 --> 00:19:38.140 University itself, they're not part of the lawsuit. 00:19:38.559 --> 00:19:40.460 Probably because they want to protect all that 00:19:40.460 --> 00:19:43.779 federal funding they get, right? But the legal 00:19:43.779 --> 00:19:45.980 challenge is still going ahead without them. 00:19:47.019 --> 00:19:50.009 Lastly, let's talk about the news. that Monmouth 00:19:50.009 --> 00:19:51.890 University, they're shutting down their polling 00:19:51.890 --> 00:19:54.329 operation. Officially, they said it was because 00:19:54.329 --> 00:19:57.109 the costs were too high and the benefits weren't 00:19:57.109 --> 00:19:59.049 worth it. They said, you know, fewer students 00:19:59.049 --> 00:20:01.170 are participating and they're not getting good 00:20:01.170 --> 00:20:03.650 PR from it anymore. But the report we looked 00:20:03.650 --> 00:20:05.710 at, it suggests that there might be more to it 00:20:05.710 --> 00:20:07.990 than that. What's interesting is the idea that 00:20:07.990 --> 00:20:09.930 maybe pressure from the Trump administration 00:20:09.930 --> 00:20:11.890 played a role. We know that President Trump, 00:20:12.009 --> 00:20:14.490 he's been very public about criticizing pollsters, 00:20:14.609 --> 00:20:16.910 even attacking them sometimes, especially if 00:20:16.910 --> 00:20:20.069 their polls show him doing badly. Sometimes he's 00:20:20.069 --> 00:20:22.670 sued them or even, you know, hinted that their 00:20:22.670 --> 00:20:25.890 funding might be in danger. Right. So for a university 00:20:25.890 --> 00:20:28.049 polling operation like Monmouth, which might 00:20:28.049 --> 00:20:30.309 already be struggling financially, that kind 00:20:30.309 --> 00:20:32.789 of pressure combined with the fact that their 00:20:32.789 --> 00:20:35.130 polls were probably going to show Trump in a 00:20:35.130 --> 00:20:37.069 bad light anyway, that could have been a big 00:20:37.069 --> 00:20:39.089 reason for them to shut down. It really makes 00:20:39.089 --> 00:20:41.349 you wonder if this is having a chilling effect 00:20:41.349 --> 00:20:44.230 on independent polling, you know, making people 00:20:44.230 --> 00:20:47.799 afraid to do it. Absolutely. OK, so for our last 00:20:47.799 --> 00:20:49.859 topic today, let's take a look at Representative 00:20:49.859 --> 00:20:53.900 Jasmine Crockett and the way she seems to be 00:20:53.900 --> 00:20:56.079 using these tactics that we usually associate 00:20:56.079 --> 00:20:58.420 with, you know, the right wing, especially people 00:20:58.420 --> 00:21:00.799 like Donald Trump. The report starts by talking 00:21:00.799 --> 00:21:02.740 about Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene's 00:21:02.740 --> 00:21:06.019 attack on Representative Alexandria Ocasio -Cortez, 00:21:06.019 --> 00:21:09.440 and it calls this obnoxious jerkiness. And it 00:21:09.440 --> 00:21:11.839 asks a really good question, you know, can a 00:21:11.839 --> 00:21:15.859 politician on the left really succeed by using 00:21:15.859 --> 00:21:18.279 that same kind of aggressive personal style of 00:21:18.279 --> 00:21:20.960 attack that we see so much on the right. The 00:21:20.960 --> 00:21:23.180 report doesn't seem to think so. They say it's 00:21:23.180 --> 00:21:25.299 because the two major parties, they have totally 00:21:25.299 --> 00:21:27.579 different cultures, different voters. What works 00:21:27.579 --> 00:21:31.019 for one side might not work for the other. They 00:21:31.019 --> 00:21:32.779 mentioned a few examples of people on the left 00:21:32.779 --> 00:21:35.599 who tried to do this and didn't become really 00:21:35.599 --> 00:21:39.059 popular or get very far politically, like Kanye 00:21:39.059 --> 00:21:41.539 West, Mayor Eric Adams, Senator John Fetterman, 00:21:41.640 --> 00:21:43.779 people like that. And now they're looking at 00:21:43.779 --> 00:21:46.200 Representative Jasmine Crockett from Texas as 00:21:46.200 --> 00:21:49.420 like a newer example of this performative politics. 00:21:50.279 --> 00:21:53.339 Her focus recently has been very critical of 00:21:53.339 --> 00:21:56.079 Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Which, you know, 00:21:56.099 --> 00:21:58.380 that's normal political stuff, considering their 00:21:58.380 --> 00:22:00.380 different views. But the way she's going about 00:22:00.380 --> 00:22:02.140 it, it's caused a lot of controversy. She's been 00:22:02.140 --> 00:22:04.759 mocking Governor Abbott's disability, calling 00:22:04.759 --> 00:22:07.759 him Governor Hot Wheels over and over. Which, 00:22:08.160 --> 00:22:10.880 for those who don't know, Hot Wheels is, you 00:22:10.880 --> 00:22:14.299 know, it's a toy car brand. Right? And in this 00:22:14.299 --> 00:22:16.660 context, it's a really insensitive way to make 00:22:16.660 --> 00:22:19.019 fun of the fact that he uses a wheelchair. The 00:22:19.019 --> 00:22:22.119 report really condemns this, you know? calling 00:22:22.119 --> 00:22:24.660 it beyond the pale and saying it's just like 00:22:24.660 --> 00:22:26.980 those personal attacks and mockery that we saw 00:22:26.980 --> 00:22:31.400 from Trump in the past. Crockett hasn't apologized 00:22:31.400 --> 00:22:34.519 and her excuse for saying it wasn't very convincing. 00:22:35.460 --> 00:22:38.519 This is a clear example of a politician just 00:22:38.519 --> 00:22:40.839 resorting to insults instead of talking about 00:22:40.839 --> 00:22:44.049 actual policy. And even though Representative 00:22:44.049 --> 00:22:46.130 Crockett's district is very safe for Democrats, 00:22:46.230 --> 00:22:47.690 so she's probably not going to lose her seat 00:22:47.690 --> 00:22:50.009 over this, the report argues that this kind of 00:22:50.009 --> 00:22:52.170 behavior, it's not going to help her get ahead 00:22:52.170 --> 00:22:54.710 politically, especially in a state like Texas, 00:22:55.089 --> 00:22:57.490 where there are voters from all different backgrounds, 00:22:57.490 --> 00:22:59.109 and they don't think she's going to become a 00:22:59.109 --> 00:23:02.470 big star on the left -wing media, like Marjorie 00:23:02.470 --> 00:23:04.789 Taylor Beane has on the right. They say that 00:23:04.789 --> 00:23:07.470 people like Representative Alexandria Ocasio 00:23:07.470 --> 00:23:10.069 -Cortez are a better example of how to do left 00:23:10.069 --> 00:23:12.589 -wing politics effectively. effectively and ethically. 00:23:13.009 --> 00:23:15.170 So to wrap up this whole deep dive, we've really 00:23:15.170 --> 00:23:17.490 covered a lot. We've seen this complicated economic 00:23:17.490 --> 00:23:20.049 picture with all its mixed signals. We dug into 00:23:20.049 --> 00:23:22.789 a big political scandal that raises some really 00:23:22.789 --> 00:23:25.569 serious questions about national security and 00:23:25.569 --> 00:23:28.369 trust. And we looked at some important changes 00:23:28.369 --> 00:23:31.509 in election results and how politicians are changing 00:23:31.509 --> 00:23:34.150 their tactics. Right. It's clear that all these 00:23:34.150 --> 00:23:36.470 different things, they're all connected and they 00:23:36.470 --> 00:23:39.859 give us this, you know, this fascinating but 00:23:39.859 --> 00:23:42.019 sometimes unsettling, look at what's going on 00:23:42.019 --> 00:23:43.960 in the world right now. What's really striking 00:23:43.960 --> 00:23:46.579 is how all these different threads we've talked 00:23:46.579 --> 00:23:49.890 about, right? The economic uncertainty that's 00:23:49.890 --> 00:23:52.210 still out there, that erosion of trust that's 00:23:52.210 --> 00:23:53.869 highlighted by the signal scandal, the fight 00:23:53.869 --> 00:23:56.029 between federal and state power that we saw in 00:23:56.029 --> 00:23:57.849 the election integrity debate and the Columbia 00:23:57.849 --> 00:24:00.569 University lawsuit, and the way political discourse 00:24:00.569 --> 00:24:03.349 is changing. All of that contributes to this 00:24:03.349 --> 00:24:05.769 feeling that our society is in a state of tension 00:24:05.769 --> 00:24:08.450 and that it's going through this really big transformation. 00:24:08.910 --> 00:24:12.119 That's a great point. And it makes me think about 00:24:12.119 --> 00:24:14.619 something. You know that surprise Democratic 00:24:14.619 --> 00:24:17.000 win in that Pennsylvania State Senate district? 00:24:17.099 --> 00:24:19.259 That was historically Republican, right? And 00:24:19.259 --> 00:24:21.180 then you have that lawsuit from Columbia University. 00:24:21.599 --> 00:24:23.980 Those staff members challenging federal policies. 00:24:24.980 --> 00:24:27.579 What does that tell us about how politics might 00:24:27.579 --> 00:24:31.059 be shifting at the local level? And can institutions 00:24:31.059 --> 00:24:33.000 really push back against what the federal government 00:24:33.000 --> 00:24:35.259 is doing? These are questions we're thinking 00:24:35.259 --> 00:24:37.740 about as we watch all these changes happening 00:24:37.740 --> 00:24:40.150 around us. Thanks for joining us on the Deep 00:24:40.150 --> 00:24:42.529 Dive today. Keep exploring these topics and see 00:24:42.529 --> 00:24:44.269 what other connections and implications you can 00:24:44.269 --> 00:24:46.069 find. Absolutely. And we'll see you next time.