WEBVTT

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Man, trying to keep up with everything going

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on these days, it's like drinking from a fire

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hose, isn't it? It really is. You finally feel

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like you've wrapped your head around one story,

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and boom, five more just explode onto the scene.

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And they all seem so urgent, demanding your attention

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right now. That's why we do this. Absolutely.

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Welcome to the deep dive. We're going to take

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a breath together, and we're really going to

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try to dig into what matters most. That's the

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goal. And today, well, you've... It's certainly

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given us a lot to work with. I have. Oh, yeah.

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This stack of sources you've provided, it's fascinating.

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It covers everything from the current political

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landscape right through a really deep analysis

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of what the Federal Reserve is up to and then

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a crucial investor's guide to all these tariffs

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that are just around the corner. OK, wow. Sounds

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like we have our work cut out for us. We do.

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But that's what we're here for. We're going to

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pull out the really essential insights from all

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of this material, give you the information that's

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going to make you say, aha, now I understand,

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and maybe even surprise you a little along the

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way. And don't worry, we're not going to get

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bogged down in the weeds. Perfect. Well, why

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don't we start with trying to untangle some of

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the, well, to put a mildly, strange happenings

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in Washington. Let's jump right into the political

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arena then. OK. One of the sources you flagged.

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uses a rather colorful term, I have to say, to

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describe what's been going on with the U .S.

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defense establishment. They call it a clown show.

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Oh, wow. And that's all stemming from this really,

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really eyebrow -raising security lapse that you

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highlighted in your note. Eyebrow -raising might

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be putting it a little too politely, honestly.

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So here's the picture that emerges from these

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sources. You've got these top -ranking Trump

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administration officials using the Signal app,

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which, for our listeners who might not be familiar,

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is designed for encrypted messaging. And they're

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using this app to have conversations about incredibly

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sensitive stuff, like the bombing of Houthi fighters

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in Yemen. You would think that would be about

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as secure a communications you could get. You

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would think. Right. That's what end -to -end

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encryption is supposed to do, theoretically.

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Right. And you see that reflected in these sources.

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You've got figures like JD Vance, who you'd expect

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to be aware of and maybe even advocating for

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this kind of security measure, actively participating

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in these chats. But here's where it takes this

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truly bizarre turn. Oh, boy. Hold onto your hats.

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OK. Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor -in -chief of

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The Atlantic, no less, ends up being accidentally

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added to this very signal group chat. So here

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he is, witnessing real -time discussions about

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a planned military operation. Wow. It's almost

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unbelievable when you think about it. It is.

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And I love this quote from one of the sources.

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They call it, and I quote, unbelievably stupid

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and careless. It really is hard to find a more

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apt description. I know, right? So what's the

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lesson here? Is Signal not as secure as we all

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thought? I think one of the key takeaways is

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that while an app like Signal can offer a layer

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of security through its encryption, it doesn't

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actually address vulnerabilities at the device

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level. If a phone itself is compromised, then

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all that encryption becomes useless. It's like

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having a super high -tech lock on your front

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door, but leaving all your windows wide open.

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That's a really good analogy. It really highlights

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the weak point in the chain. It does. And speaking

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of weaknesses, I mean the sheer lack of, what

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did the source call it? Message hygiene? Yes,

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message hygiene. It's staggering. 18 people in

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this group chat. We're talking NSA official Mike

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Waltz, Defense Secretary Pete Hagseth, then CIA

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Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Marco

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Rubio, Stephen Miller for goodness sake. I mean,

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the more people you add to a conversation like

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that, the higher the chances of something going

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wrong. It's simple math, almost. Every new participant

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increases the attack surface. That just means

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more potential points of vulnerability. And look,

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it doesn't even have to be malicious. It can

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be a simple mistake, a misclick, an autocorrect,

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gone rogue. But the fact that they didn't realize

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a journalist, of all people, was in their midst

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until his story went live, it just shows a complete

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lack of attention to the basics. It really does.

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And then you layer on top of all of this, this

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incredible hypocrisy. Remember all the scrutiny,

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all the criticism around. Hillary Clinton's emails,

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the whole potential for classified information

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being exposed. Right. And it was all about the

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potential risk, the hypothetical. If we connect

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that to what we're seeing here, it's almost a

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mirror image, but reversed. In this case, you

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have high ranking officials in the Trump administration

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actually exposing the details of an active military

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operation. So it's not a potential risk anymore.

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It's an actual leak. It's a real leak happening

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in real time. And this wasn't just scheduling

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details or some logistical minutiae. This was

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sensitive information. I mean, we're talking

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about details that, if leaked, could have had

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severe consequences. Fatal consequences, even.

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Exactly. That's a point that really comes through

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in the reporting. Absolutely. I mean, when the

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details of a planned military action become known

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outside of the proper channels before they're

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supposed to, it can jeopardize the entire mission,

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put lives at risk, and seriously damage national

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security. It's not something to be taken lightly.

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And the irony here is just so thick you could

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cut it with a knife. Remember Mike waltz one

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of the signal group chat participants. Yes. Yeah,

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he was actually one of the people who was most

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vocal in Criticizing Jake Sullivan, you know

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for how he handled classified information during

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the previous administration All right, and there's

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this quote from waltz in one of the articles

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last We checked Sullivan never leaked plans for

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an imminent military strike to some random magazine

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editor I mean, come on talk about a foot -in

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-mouth moment, right? The hypocrisy is just mind

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blowing. It really highlights how the standards

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seem to shift, depending on who's in power. Exactly.

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So what was the official response from the Trump

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cap when all of this came out? Well, pretty much

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what you'd expect. Trump himself completely dismissed

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the Atlantic, called it fake news, of course.

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bizarrely, tried to claim it was a hoax, even

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though there's clear evidence. And you have Speaker

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Johnson offering a vague promise that, oh, it

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won't happen again, you know, that kind of thing.

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There's a pattern there, isn't there? Oh, yeah.

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It's interesting how the response often focuses

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on discrediting the source or downplaying the

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significance of the issue rather than actually

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addressing the core problem. Right. Like in this

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case, the core problem is a serious breach of

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operational security. Exactly. But instead of

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grappling with that, they deflect and distract.

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Absolutely. It's classic political maneuvering.

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Yeah. And Holly, he seemed more upset about who

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was in the text message chain than the fact that

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highly sensitive information was being discussed

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so carelessly. Then you have Will Kane, who actually

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tried to spin this as a positive example of transparency.

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That's an interesting tape. Right. It's almost

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Orwellian. And then, of course, Ingerham and

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Hannity, they just went after the messenger,

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as you'd expect. Predictable, perhaps, but still

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concerning. It suggests a reluctance to engage

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with legitimate criticism and a tendency to circle

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the wagons rather than address the underlying

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issues. Exactly. And the thing is this whole

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signal situation, it reveals more than just incompetence

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and hypocrisy. It also gives us a peek behind

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the curtain, you know, a glimpse into some of

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the internal dynamics within the Trump administration.

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Oh, right. Like. It turns out JD Vance was actually

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a dissenting voice in all of this. He wasn't

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really on board with bombing Yemen politically,

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strategically. He just didn't think it was a

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good idea. Interesting. And apparently, he also

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suspected that Trump himself didn't really fully

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grasp the potential ramifications of the decision.

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Which suggests a level of, shall we say, skepticism

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about the president's understanding of these

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really complex foreign policy issues. And from

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what the reporting indicates, this wasn't an

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isolated sentiment. That kind of skepticism was

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pretty widespread among those who worked closely

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with Trump. Yeah, and they didn't always use

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the most flattering terms to describe him in

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private. Like nitwit, for example. Exactly. And

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it wasn't just about Trump. Vance and Hegseth,

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they apparently weren't too fond of our European

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allies either, calling them freeloading gold

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-brickers. Yeah. So that gives you a sense of

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their approach to international relations. Not

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exactly the language of diplomacy. No. But here's

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the really key point. While they were ostensibly

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discussing national security, it seems the main

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focus of this signal chat was actually the messaging

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surrounding the Yemen attacks. how we'd play

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with the public, how it would affect the voting

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base. Which speaks to this constant political

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calculus that seems to drive decision -making

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at the highest levels. And sometimes it feels

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like those political considerations might overshadow

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other crucial factors. Right, like the actual

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effectiveness of the policy or, you know, the

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ethical implications. Absolutely. And then there's

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this final detail, this little tidbit that really

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stood out to me. It's Mike Waltz's reaction.

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to the Yemen bombings. Oh, right. The bombings

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that resulted in at least 50 deaths, by the way.

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And how did he react? Let me guess. With a celebratory

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fist emoji, an American flag emoji, and fire

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emojis. Oh, wow. While other participants were

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responding with praying hands emojis. That's

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a pretty stark contrast. It is. It really speaks

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volumes, doesn't it? It does make you wonder

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about the different perspectives and priorities

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within that group. Absolutely. So the big takeaway

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from this whole signal saga, I think, is this.

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It's a master class in how not to handle sensitive

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information, a huge dose of hypocrisy, and a

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pretty revealing look at the internal culture

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and priorities of the Trump administration. I

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think that's a fair assessment. But let's move

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on now to another, let's call it unconventional

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policy proposal from the same administration,

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these secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil. Ah,

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yes, tariffs. Back in the news again. And this

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time, it's not your typical straightforward bilateral

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trade measure. What we're looking at here is

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a proposed 25 % tariff on all goods imported

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from any country that decides to do business

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with Venezuelan oil. So not just goods from Venezuela

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itself. No, that's the twist. It's an attempt

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to indirectly influence Venezuela's economy by

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targeting its trading partners. One of the sources

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calls this a trilateral tariff. A new invention,

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apparently. It's certainly creative, I'll give

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them that, but whether it's effective, that's

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another question altogether. And the expert analysis

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we have here expresses, shall we say, a healthy

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degree of skepticism about how this is going

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to be received globally. I mean, it makes sense,

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right? It's basically saying to other countries,

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hey, if you want to access the lucrative US market,

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You better fall in line with our foreign policy

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on Venezuela. Exactly. I can't imagine that's

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going to go over well with everyone. I think

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the risk of retaliatory tariffs from the countries

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affected is pretty high. Yeah, it feels like

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it would just escalate tensions and hurt everyone

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in the end. It might. And there's this other

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question that keeps coming up in the reporting.

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Oh. Why this? laser focus on Venezuela specifically

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I mean the article points out that there are

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plenty of other countries in Latin America even

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Africa that share some of the same Characteristics

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the administration attributes to Venezuela around

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populations histories of corruption governments

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with socialist leanings But for some reason it's

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Venezuela that's being singled out It does make

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you wonder about the underlying motivations and

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strategic goals, doesn't it? It does. One of

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the sources even makes this kind of tongue -in

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-cheek observation about the axis of evil maybe

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being updated to include Venezuela. Oh, wow.

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It highlights the sense that the administration's

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focus on Venezuela might be a little bit disproportionate.

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Interesting. OK, well, let's shift gears now

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from international intrigue to something a bit

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closer to home. And I have to say... This is

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refreshing. We have a Republican senator, John

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Curtis from Utah, who's been surprisingly candid

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about the challenges facing Social Security.

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That's encouraging to hear. Honesty is a rare

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commodity in politics these days. It really is.

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And he's not just paying lip service to the issue.

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He's actually acknowledging the elephant in the

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room. He said, and I quote, We're not being honest

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when we look people in the eye and say we're

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not going to touch it. If we don't touch it,

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it touches itself. You know that, right? That's

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not being honest with the American people, and

00:12:12.279 --> 00:12:14.460
I think that's one of the things that makes them

00:12:14.460 --> 00:12:17.179
not trust us when we say something that they

00:12:17.179 --> 00:12:20.740
just know is not true. Wow. That's pretty blunt,

00:12:20.919 --> 00:12:23.399
right? It's incredibly blunt for a politician,

00:12:23.500 --> 00:12:25.179
especially when it comes to entitlement programs.

00:12:25.200 --> 00:12:27.179
I know. It's not something you hear every day.

00:12:27.519 --> 00:12:30.559
So what's his proposed solution? Well, he didn't

00:12:30.559 --> 00:12:33.559
really offer specific solutions, but he did emphasize

00:12:33.559 --> 00:12:36.519
the need for an open and honest conversation

00:12:36.519 --> 00:12:38.960
about the future of the program. especially for

00:12:38.960 --> 00:12:41.840
younger generations. He acknowledged that current

00:12:41.840 --> 00:12:45.100
retirees are probably okay, but there needs to

00:12:45.100 --> 00:12:47.519
be a plan for the long term. And that's the crucial

00:12:47.519 --> 00:12:49.879
point, isn't it? Acknowledging the problem is

00:12:49.879 --> 00:12:52.940
the first step towards finding a solution. Exactly.

00:12:53.159 --> 00:12:55.659
And this kind of candor from a Republican senator,

00:12:55.659 --> 00:12:58.580
it's really refreshing. In fact, one of the sources

00:12:58.580 --> 00:13:02.379
we have positions Curtis as a potential leader

00:13:02.379 --> 00:13:04.980
for the Republican Party in a post Trump world.

00:13:05.320 --> 00:13:07.840
Interesting. So maybe a glimmer of hope for a

00:13:07.840 --> 00:13:10.720
more honest and pragmatic approach to policymaking.

00:13:10.879 --> 00:13:13.100
We can only hope. Now, speaking of the future

00:13:13.100 --> 00:13:15.100
of the Republican Party, there are those two

00:13:15.100 --> 00:13:17.480
special elections coming up in Florida to fill

00:13:17.480 --> 00:13:20.460
the House seats vacated by Matt Gaetz and, ironically,

00:13:20.759 --> 00:13:24.139
Mike Waltz. You know, this signal guy. Oh, right.

00:13:24.500 --> 00:13:27.440
So what's interesting here is the significant

00:13:27.440 --> 00:13:29.399
fundraising advantage that Democratic candidates

00:13:29.399 --> 00:13:31.840
have, even in districts that are generally considered

00:13:31.840 --> 00:13:35.000
to lean Republican. In Florida's first congressional

00:13:35.000 --> 00:13:38.259
district, the Democrat, Gaye Valamond, has raised

00:13:38.259 --> 00:13:41.740
a whopping $6 .5 million. That's a lot of money

00:13:41.740 --> 00:13:44.320
for a House race. It is. And in the sixth district,

00:13:44.480 --> 00:13:47.600
which is a bit less solidly Republican, the Democrat,

00:13:47.799 --> 00:13:50.480
Josh Weil, has raised almost $10 million. That's

00:13:50.480 --> 00:13:52.899
even more impressive. It is. And on the Republican

00:13:52.899 --> 00:13:55.700
side, in the sixth district, you have Randy Fine,

00:13:56.039 --> 00:13:58.240
who has raised considerably less, under $600

00:13:58.240 --> 00:14:02.639
,000, in fact. Wow. That's a huge discrepancy.

00:14:02.720 --> 00:14:05.360
It is. And it could be a sign that Republican

00:14:05.360 --> 00:14:07.759
donors aren't feeling particularly enthusiastic

00:14:07.759 --> 00:14:10.600
about fines chances. It's certainly possible.

00:14:10.720 --> 00:14:12.600
I mean, that kind of financial disadvantage can

00:14:12.600 --> 00:14:15.120
be really difficult to overcome in an election.

00:14:15.399 --> 00:14:17.340
It can be, especially when it comes to things

00:14:17.340 --> 00:14:20.000
like advertising and get out the vote efforts.

00:14:20.460 --> 00:14:22.559
Exactly. Yeah. Now, the Democrats are probably

00:14:22.559 --> 00:14:24.960
looking back at that special election upset.

00:14:25.200 --> 00:14:27.799
in Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district

00:14:27.799 --> 00:14:31.259
in 2018 as a reason for some optimism. Right.

00:14:31.340 --> 00:14:33.299
That was a district with a similar Republican

00:14:33.299 --> 00:14:35.700
lean where the Democrat managed to win. Yeah.

00:14:35.820 --> 00:14:37.740
But it's definitely an uphill battle in Florida.

00:14:37.919 --> 00:14:39.860
It always is in those kinds of districts. But

00:14:39.860 --> 00:14:42.700
with that level of financial firepower, maybe

00:14:42.700 --> 00:14:45.519
we'll can pull off an upset. Well, it's a reminder

00:14:45.519 --> 00:14:48.379
that in politics, especially in special elections,

00:14:48.940 --> 00:14:52.039
anything can happen. True. Okay, last but not

00:14:52.039 --> 00:14:53.720
least in our political roundup, we have this

00:14:53.720 --> 00:14:56.620
really interesting look at the potential Democratic

00:14:56.620 --> 00:14:59.259
field for the 2028 presidential election. Oh,

00:14:59.340 --> 00:15:02.200
that's a long way off. I know. But the Washington

00:15:02.200 --> 00:15:04.340
Post has already started putting together a list

00:15:04.340 --> 00:15:06.899
of potential contenders, and the analysis you

00:15:06.899 --> 00:15:09.049
shared is fascinating. So who's on the list?

00:15:09.529 --> 00:15:11.450
Well, there are a lot of familiar names, mostly

00:15:11.450 --> 00:15:14.129
governors and senators. You've got Tim Walz,

00:15:14.269 --> 00:15:17.549
Josh Stein, Andy Beshear, Gavin Newsom, Wes Moore,

00:15:17.769 --> 00:15:20.710
Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro. And then on the

00:15:20.710 --> 00:15:23.090
Senate side, you have Raphael Warnock and Ruben

00:15:23.090 --> 00:15:25.330
Gallego. And then there's John Fetterman, of

00:15:25.330 --> 00:15:28.149
course, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg. A pretty

00:15:28.149 --> 00:15:31.730
diverse group. It is. And the analysis really

00:15:31.730 --> 00:15:34.289
digs into their strengths and weaknesses. Like,

00:15:34.330 --> 00:15:36.889
for example, Beshear is seen as a real asset

00:15:36.889 --> 00:15:39.750
because he proven he could win in a deeply conservative

00:15:39.750 --> 00:15:42.190
state like Kentucky. But then you have Newsom,

00:15:42.389 --> 00:15:45.070
who's perceived as maybe too progressive to California

00:15:45.070 --> 00:15:47.850
to appeal to a broader national electorate. Right.

00:15:47.970 --> 00:15:50.409
And then there's Gallego, who, with his background

00:15:50.409 --> 00:15:53.549
as a Latino Marine veteran representing a swing

00:15:53.549 --> 00:15:55.970
state, is seen as a really intriguing prospect.

00:15:56.149 --> 00:15:58.490
Makes sense. He ticks a lot of boxes. He does.

00:15:58.700 --> 00:16:01.620
And the analysis also highlights some potential

00:16:01.620 --> 00:16:03.940
challenges for certain individuals. Right. There

00:16:03.940 --> 00:16:05.879
are still lingering concerns about Federman's

00:16:05.879 --> 00:16:08.120
health after his stroke. And there are questions

00:16:08.120 --> 00:16:10.480
about Buttigieg's ability to connect with certain

00:16:10.480 --> 00:16:13.059
demographics. Interesting. It really feels like

00:16:13.059 --> 00:16:15.740
the Democrats are already starting to strategize

00:16:15.740 --> 00:16:18.419
for the post -Trump era. It's never too early

00:16:18.419 --> 00:16:20.480
to start thinking about the next election cycle.

00:16:20.620 --> 00:16:24.100
I guess not. But here's the real curveball. There's

00:16:24.100 --> 00:16:27.019
this speculation about Mark Cuban. the billionaire,

00:16:27.580 --> 00:16:29.659
potentially making a run for the presidency.

00:16:29.940 --> 00:16:34.100
Mark Cuban, really? Yeah. And get this, he'd

00:16:34.100 --> 00:16:35.940
be running on an anti -billionaire platform.

00:16:36.019 --> 00:16:38.220
That's a bold strategy. I know. He's talking

00:16:38.220 --> 00:16:41.700
about radical tax reforms, like a 91 % top marginal

00:16:41.700 --> 00:16:45.639
tax rate, a 95 % estate tax on fortunes over

00:16:45.639 --> 00:16:47.899
a billion dollars. I mean, it's pretty wild.

00:16:48.100 --> 00:16:49.879
It's certainly a different kind of populism.

00:16:49.940 --> 00:16:52.340
It is. But it's fascinating to think about. It

00:16:52.340 --> 00:16:55.120
is. OK, well, that's quite a tour of the current

00:16:55.120 --> 00:16:57.919
political landscape. A lot to digest there. There

00:16:57.919 --> 00:17:01.080
is. But now let's turn our attention to the economic

00:17:01.080 --> 00:17:04.140
front and let's really dive into the Federal

00:17:04.140 --> 00:17:07.180
Reserve's latest moves and the potential fallout

00:17:07.180 --> 00:17:10.220
from these new tariffs. Sounds good. And I think

00:17:10.220 --> 00:17:12.619
the theme that really ties all of this economic

00:17:12.619 --> 00:17:16.460
analysis together is uncertainty. Uncertainty.

00:17:16.599 --> 00:17:19.319
Yeah, it's a word that comes up again and again

00:17:19.319 --> 00:17:22.019
in the sources you provided. Interesting. Well,

00:17:22.059 --> 00:17:24.420
the Fed just wrapped up its latest meeting and

00:17:24.420 --> 00:17:27.180
they decided to hold interest rates steady, which

00:17:27.180 --> 00:17:30.119
was pretty much what everyone expected. But it's

00:17:30.119 --> 00:17:33.059
the changes to their economic projections that

00:17:33.059 --> 00:17:35.019
are really raising eyebrows. What kind of changes?

00:17:35.500 --> 00:17:38.180
Well, they're now forecasting higher inflation

00:17:38.180 --> 00:17:41.000
than they were previously. And at the same time,

00:17:41.400 --> 00:17:43.039
they've lowered their projections for economic

00:17:43.039 --> 00:17:45.130
growth. So they're basically saying we're going

00:17:45.130 --> 00:17:47.809
to have slower growth and higher prices. Yeah,

00:17:47.869 --> 00:17:49.930
essential. And not a good combination. It's not.

00:17:50.170 --> 00:17:51.930
It has led some people to start talking about

00:17:51.930 --> 00:17:54.910
the possibility of stagflation. Stagflation,

00:17:54.910 --> 00:17:57.789
that's a pretty scary word. It is. And for our

00:17:57.789 --> 00:17:59.170
listeners who might not be familiar with the

00:17:59.170 --> 00:18:02.730
term, stagflation is basically a situation where

00:18:02.730 --> 00:18:07.109
you have slow or stagnant economic growth happening

00:18:07.109 --> 00:18:10.630
at the same time as high inflation. It's a recipe

00:18:10.630 --> 00:18:14.500
for economic pain. I see. So are we headed for

00:18:14.500 --> 00:18:16.720
stagflation? Well, the analysis we've reviewed

00:18:16.720 --> 00:18:18.819
suggests that the Fed isn't predicting full -blown

00:18:18.819 --> 00:18:21.700
stagflation just yet, but it's definitely a possibility

00:18:21.700 --> 00:18:23.839
they're taking seriously. I understand. And how

00:18:23.839 --> 00:18:26.240
about the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell? What did

00:18:26.240 --> 00:18:28.619
he have to say about all of this? Well, his main

00:18:28.619 --> 00:18:31.240
message was pretty clear. uncertainty. In fact,

00:18:31.500 --> 00:18:33.700
he actually said, I didn't know anybody who is

00:18:33.700 --> 00:18:35.819
confident in their forecast. Wow, that's pretty

00:18:35.819 --> 00:18:37.460
blunt coming from the head of the central bank.

00:18:37.460 --> 00:18:40.859
It is. Yes. And he even went on to point to specific

00:18:40.859 --> 00:18:44.480
policies from the current administration as major

00:18:44.480 --> 00:18:46.680
contributors to this uncertainty. Like what?

00:18:47.019 --> 00:18:49.440
He specifically mentioned immigration restrictions,

00:18:49.960 --> 00:18:52.759
tariffs and the future of tax policy as factors

00:18:52.759 --> 00:18:54.480
that are making it really difficult to predict

00:18:54.480 --> 00:18:56.819
where the economy is headed. So he's basically

00:18:56.819 --> 00:18:58.980
saying the government is making his job harder.

00:18:59.259 --> 00:19:02.539
Yeah. Pretty much. It highlights the interconnectedness

00:19:02.539 --> 00:19:05.079
of government policy and the financial markets.

00:19:05.160 --> 00:19:08.220
It does. The Fed can't just operate in a vacuum.

00:19:08.619 --> 00:19:10.660
They have to react to what's happening in the

00:19:10.660 --> 00:19:13.500
broader political and economic landscape. And

00:19:13.500 --> 00:19:15.160
that landscape is looking pretty unpredictable

00:19:15.160 --> 00:19:19.079
right now. It is. So how is the Fed reacting

00:19:19.079 --> 00:19:22.660
to all of this uncertainty? Well, they're taking

00:19:22.660 --> 00:19:24.940
a cautious approach. They're holding interest

00:19:24.940 --> 00:19:27.339
rates steady for now, not because they're super

00:19:27.339 --> 00:19:29.619
confident in the economy, but more because they

00:19:29.619 --> 00:19:31.819
want to wait and see how things play out. Makes

00:19:31.819 --> 00:19:34.240
sense. There's also been some interesting movement

00:19:34.240 --> 00:19:37.599
in the dot plot, which basically shows where

00:19:37.599 --> 00:19:39.680
individual members of the Federal Open Market

00:19:39.680 --> 00:19:42.019
Committee expect interest rates to be in the

00:19:42.019 --> 00:19:44.599
future. What kind of movement? Fewer members

00:19:44.599 --> 00:19:47.519
now anticipate two interest rate cuts in 2025,

00:19:47.640 --> 00:19:50.599
and more of them are projecting only one cut.

00:19:50.940 --> 00:19:53.519
So they're becoming a bit more hawkish on inflation?

00:19:53.869 --> 00:19:55.890
Yeah, it seems like it. They're concerned that

00:19:55.890 --> 00:19:58.029
inflation might be stickier than they initially

00:19:58.029 --> 00:20:00.589
thought. And that's not good news for consumers.

00:20:00.670 --> 00:20:03.470
It's not. So what's the bottom line? The bottom

00:20:03.470 --> 00:20:05.869
line is that the Fed is in a wait -and -see mode.

00:20:06.349 --> 00:20:08.470
They're watching the data closely, and they're

00:20:08.470 --> 00:20:10.430
ready to adjust their policies if necessary.

00:20:10.549 --> 00:20:12.849
Sounds like a prudent approach. It does. But

00:20:12.849 --> 00:20:16.069
now, on top of all of this uncertainty from the

00:20:16.069 --> 00:20:19.089
Fed, we have the added wrinkle of these new tariffs

00:20:19.089 --> 00:20:21.170
that are expected to be announced any day now.

00:20:21.529 --> 00:20:24.819
Ah, yes, the tariffs. Always a hot topic. They

00:20:24.819 --> 00:20:27.599
are. And we have an investor's guide here that

00:20:27.599 --> 00:20:29.420
gives us a little bit of insight into what we

00:20:29.420 --> 00:20:31.940
might expect. Play it on me. Well, first of all,

00:20:32.160 --> 00:20:34.180
the announcement is expected to come on April

00:20:34.180 --> 00:20:37.779
2nd, which also happens to be the day a previous

00:20:37.779 --> 00:20:40.339
temporary suspension of tariffs on certain goods

00:20:40.339 --> 00:20:43.359
from Canada and Mexico expires. Those were the

00:20:43.359 --> 00:20:45.920
tariffs related to the USMCA, right? Exactly.

00:20:46.259 --> 00:20:48.599
So it looks like we're headed for a pretty significant

00:20:48.599 --> 00:20:50.650
shakeup in the trade landscape. Interesting.

00:20:50.809 --> 00:20:52.930
And what's the scope of these new tariffs? Who

00:20:52.930 --> 00:20:55.309
are they targeting? Well, the expectation is

00:20:55.309 --> 00:20:57.730
that they'll be quite broad in scope. They're

00:20:57.730 --> 00:21:00.609
being framed as reciprocal tariffs, which basically

00:21:00.609 --> 00:21:02.650
means they're aimed at various countries or trade

00:21:02.650 --> 00:21:05.509
blocs that the U .S. sees as having unfair trade

00:21:05.509 --> 00:21:08.569
practices. I see. So not just one country, but

00:21:08.569 --> 00:21:11.390
potentially a whole range of them. Exactly. And

00:21:11.390 --> 00:21:13.750
there's also talk of industry specific tariffs

00:21:13.750 --> 00:21:16.670
with the automotive sector, semiconductors and

00:21:16.670 --> 00:21:19.369
pharmaceuticals being mentioned as potential

00:21:19.369 --> 00:21:21.390
targets. So it could affect a lot of different

00:21:21.390 --> 00:21:24.549
companies and consumers. It could. The estimates

00:21:24.549 --> 00:21:26.769
suggest that these tariffs could be applied to

00:21:26.769 --> 00:21:30.410
as many as 17000 different product categories

00:21:30.410 --> 00:21:33.670
from 193 countries. That's a lot of tariffs.

00:21:33.930 --> 00:21:36.269
It is. And it gets a little bit complicated because

00:21:36.269 --> 00:21:39.369
they're talking about this concept of tariff

00:21:39.369 --> 00:21:41.890
rate reciprocity. But what that really means

00:21:41.890 --> 00:21:44.630
in practice is that the US isn't necessarily

00:21:44.630 --> 00:21:47.470
going to match the exact tariff rates that other

00:21:47.470 --> 00:21:50.569
countries impose on us. So they have some leeway

00:21:50.569 --> 00:21:53.109
in how they apply these tariffs. Yeah, it seems

00:21:53.109 --> 00:21:54.970
like it. They're taking a more flexible approach,

00:21:55.490 --> 00:21:57.289
setting their own tariff levels based on their

00:21:57.289 --> 00:21:59.700
own assessment of the situation. And that assessment

00:21:59.700 --> 00:22:02.180
probably includes a lot of non -economic factors,

00:22:02.220 --> 00:22:04.980
right? Oh, absolutely. There are definitely geopolitical

00:22:04.980 --> 00:22:07.480
considerations at play here. Well, for example,

00:22:07.880 --> 00:22:10.000
there are indications that the U .S. might be

00:22:10.000 --> 00:22:12.980
willing to offer lower tariff rates to countries

00:22:12.980 --> 00:22:16.019
that cooperate with them on other issues, like

00:22:16.019 --> 00:22:18.940
immigration control, drug trafficking, defense

00:22:18.940 --> 00:22:21.859
spending. So it's not just about trade anymore.

00:22:22.200 --> 00:22:25.980
It's about using tariffs as leverage to achieve

00:22:25.980 --> 00:22:28.559
broader foreign policy objectives. It's a pretty

00:22:28.559 --> 00:22:31.279
blunt instrument though, isn't it? It is. And

00:22:31.279 --> 00:22:32.859
there's a lot of debate about how effective it

00:22:32.859 --> 00:22:34.940
actually is. And how about the economic impact

00:22:34.940 --> 00:22:37.380
of all of this? Well, the analysis we have suggests

00:22:37.380 --> 00:22:40.480
that these new tariffs are unlikely to have a

00:22:40.480 --> 00:22:42.940
significant positive impact on the U .S. economy.

00:22:43.240 --> 00:22:45.640
So if it's not about boosting the economy, then

00:22:45.640 --> 00:22:47.740
what is it about? It seems like the main goal

00:22:47.740 --> 00:22:50.430
is geopolitical. It's about using tariffs as

00:22:50.430 --> 00:22:53.630
a tool of statecraft, a way to punish or pressure

00:22:53.630 --> 00:22:56.009
other countries. I see. So it's more about politics

00:22:56.009 --> 00:22:58.250
than economics. It seems that way. So what's

00:22:58.250 --> 00:23:00.250
the potential fallout from all of this? How will

00:23:00.250 --> 00:23:02.950
it affect different countries and regions? Well,

00:23:02.950 --> 00:23:05.130
let's start with the European Union. It's a bit

00:23:05.130 --> 00:23:07.730
unclear right now exactly how these reciprocal

00:23:07.730 --> 00:23:10.670
tariffs would be applied to the EU. But the U

00:23:10.670 --> 00:23:12.910
.S. has expressed concerns about their value

00:23:12.910 --> 00:23:16.470
added tax or VAT in the past. So that could be

00:23:16.470 --> 00:23:19.890
a point of contention. It could. And the analysis

00:23:19.890 --> 00:23:22.250
suggests that if the U .S. were to impose a 25

00:23:22.250 --> 00:23:25.970
% tariff on all goods from the EU, it could potentially

00:23:25.970 --> 00:23:29.730
reduce the EU's GDP by about 0 .8 % in the short

00:23:29.730 --> 00:23:33.130
term. That's a significant impact. It is. However,

00:23:33.430 --> 00:23:35.390
there are some factors that could potentially

00:23:35.390 --> 00:23:38.349
mitigate that impact. Like what? Well, Germany,

00:23:38.450 --> 00:23:40.589
for example, is investing heavily in defense

00:23:40.589 --> 00:23:43.210
and infrastructure right now. And the European

00:23:43.210 --> 00:23:45.410
Central Bank is likely to continue cutting interest

00:23:45.410 --> 00:23:48.009
rates. So those measures could potentially offset

00:23:48.009 --> 00:23:49.630
some of the negative effects of the tariffs.

00:23:50.069 --> 00:23:52.309
Interesting. So the EU might be able to weather

00:23:52.309 --> 00:23:55.269
the storm. They might, but it's still a risk.

00:23:55.390 --> 00:23:57.910
And how about North America? Well, that's where

00:23:57.910 --> 00:23:59.970
things get a little bit complicated. How so?

00:24:00.170 --> 00:24:02.869
Because of the USMCA. Remember, those tariffs

00:24:02.869 --> 00:24:05.390
on certain goods from Canada and Mexico are set

00:24:05.390 --> 00:24:08.329
to expire on April 2nd. So it's unclear whether

00:24:08.329 --> 00:24:10.650
those tariffs will be renewed or whether they'll

00:24:10.650 --> 00:24:13.009
be replaced by these new reciprocal tariffs.

00:24:13.230 --> 00:24:15.309
I see. So it depends on how the U .S. decides

00:24:15.309 --> 00:24:19.289
to proceed. Exactly. But either way, Mexico is

00:24:19.289 --> 00:24:22.650
particularly vulnerable because they're so reliant

00:24:22.650 --> 00:24:25.589
on exports to the U .S. They could potentially

00:24:25.589 --> 00:24:27.869
face a recession if those tariffs are implemented.

00:24:28.230 --> 00:24:30.230
And Canada. Canada could also be hit pretty hard.

00:24:30.410 --> 00:24:32.869
They're also a major exporter to the U .S. So

00:24:32.869 --> 00:24:35.210
it's not looking good for North America. No it's

00:24:35.210 --> 00:24:37.230
not. And what about China. Well China is a bit

00:24:37.230 --> 00:24:40.289
of a different story. How so. The U .S. has already

00:24:40.289 --> 00:24:43.130
imposed significant tariffs on a large percentage

00:24:43.130 --> 00:24:45.869
of Chinese goods and it doesn't seem like they're

00:24:45.869 --> 00:24:48.769
backing down anytime soon. So the trade war continues.

00:24:48.970 --> 00:24:51.910
It does. And China has retaliated with its own

00:24:51.910 --> 00:24:54.529
tariffs and they're also trying to reduce their

00:24:54.529 --> 00:24:57.390
reliance on exports to the U .S. by boosting

00:24:57.390 --> 00:24:59.839
their domestic consumer demand. So they're trying

00:24:59.839 --> 00:25:02.440
to become more self -sufficient. Exactly. So

00:25:02.440 --> 00:25:04.980
what's the overall global economic impact of

00:25:04.980 --> 00:25:08.700
all of this? It's hard to say for sure, but the

00:25:08.700 --> 00:25:11.279
analysis suggests that it could be mildly negative

00:25:11.279 --> 00:25:14.299
overall. Not catastrophic, but not good either.

00:25:14.480 --> 00:25:16.619
Right. And it's important to remember that the

00:25:16.619 --> 00:25:19.400
U .S. already has relatively high import tariffs

00:25:19.400 --> 00:25:22.259
compared to historical norms. So we're already

00:25:22.259 --> 00:25:24.359
in a bit of a protectionist environment. We are.

00:25:24.599 --> 00:25:27.579
So if we zoom out and look at the big picture,

00:25:28.000 --> 00:25:30.480
what are the key takeaways from all of this?

00:25:30.880 --> 00:25:32.819
I think the main thing is that we're living in

00:25:32.819 --> 00:25:35.680
a time of great uncertainty, both politically

00:25:35.680 --> 00:25:38.940
and economically. I agree. And that uncertainty

00:25:38.940 --> 00:25:41.519
is being driven by a number of factors, including

00:25:41.519 --> 00:25:44.359
unconventional policy decisions, geopolitical

00:25:44.359 --> 00:25:47.859
tensions, and a global economic slowdown. Exactly.

00:25:48.109 --> 00:25:50.789
And for our listeners, the key message is that

00:25:50.789 --> 00:25:52.769
these developments are going to have a real impact

00:25:52.769 --> 00:25:54.529
on their lives. Absolutely. They're going to

00:25:54.529 --> 00:25:57.069
affect everything from the prices they pay at

00:25:57.069 --> 00:25:59.329
the store to the stability of their investments.

00:25:59.549 --> 00:26:01.809
So it's important to stay informed and to be

00:26:01.809 --> 00:26:04.190
prepared for whatever comes next. I couldn't

00:26:04.190 --> 00:26:06.549
agree more. And that leads me to a final thought

00:26:06.549 --> 00:26:09.430
for our listeners to consider. Given all of this

00:26:09.430 --> 00:26:11.809
uncertainty and the potential for significant

00:26:11.809 --> 00:26:15.109
shifts in the global economic order, What assumptions

00:26:15.109 --> 00:26:17.750
about international trade and economic stability

00:26:17.750 --> 00:26:21.250
might we need to reevaluate? That's a great question.

00:26:22.109 --> 00:26:24.950
I think we're entering a new era and the old

00:26:24.950 --> 00:26:27.069
rules might not apply anymore. It's definitely

00:26:27.069 --> 00:26:29.309
a time for deep thinking and careful planning.

00:26:29.609 --> 00:26:31.910
It is. Thanks for joining us for the Deep Dive.

00:26:32.049 --> 00:26:33.869
My pleasure. We'll see you next time. See you

00:26:33.869 --> 00:26:34.009
then.
