WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.359 Man, sometimes it feels like the world is just 00:00:02.359 --> 00:00:06.740 moving way too fast. Yeah. And it's almost impossible 00:00:06.740 --> 00:00:08.699 to keep up with what's really important, you 00:00:08.699 --> 00:00:10.580 know, without getting totally overwhelmed with 00:00:10.580 --> 00:00:12.960 all the noise. Absolutely. That's why we're taking 00:00:12.960 --> 00:00:15.759 a deep dive today. That's right. Into some really 00:00:15.759 --> 00:00:18.199 key materials that we've gathered. Legal stuff, 00:00:18.539 --> 00:00:20.960 some really interesting economic analysis from 00:00:20.960 --> 00:00:24.679 the team over at KKR. And then also a briefing 00:00:24.679 --> 00:00:27.699 document that kind of ties it all together. Yeah. 00:00:28.140 --> 00:00:29.760 hopefully we can get a better sense of what's 00:00:29.760 --> 00:00:32.039 actually going on. Exactly. We're going beyond 00:00:32.039 --> 00:00:35.979 just like the headlines and the surface level 00:00:35.979 --> 00:00:38.240 stuff. We're really gonna dig deep into some 00:00:38.240 --> 00:00:40.920 of the big changes that we've seen lately in 00:00:40.920 --> 00:00:43.939 the legal world, the economy, education, all 00:00:43.939 --> 00:00:48.119 kind of as of late March 2025. And the goal is 00:00:48.119 --> 00:00:50.719 really to connect the dots between these things 00:00:50.719 --> 00:00:53.320 that might seem totally separate at first glance 00:00:53.320 --> 00:00:56.240 and try to pull out the insights that are gonna 00:00:56.240 --> 00:00:58.719 matter most for you guys. for you to really understand 00:00:58.719 --> 00:01:01.219 what's happening right now and get ready for 00:01:01.219 --> 00:01:04.579 some surprises along the way. OK, I love surprises. 00:01:04.739 --> 00:01:06.519 Some little ha -ha moments. Some ha -ha moments, 00:01:06.659 --> 00:01:08.079 OK? We should have a sound effect for that. Yeah, 00:01:08.099 --> 00:01:09.819 we should. All right. Yeah, we'll get to those. 00:01:09.920 --> 00:01:12.120 OK, let's unpack all of this. OK. Starting, I 00:01:12.120 --> 00:01:13.879 guess, with the legal front, where things have 00:01:13.879 --> 00:01:18.340 gotten pretty spicy recently, one case that really 00:01:18.340 --> 00:01:20.680 stood out to me involves the Trump administration 00:01:20.680 --> 00:01:24.079 and Judge James Bosberg. All right. And it's 00:01:24.079 --> 00:01:27.329 about information related to flights to Venezuela. 00:01:28.329 --> 00:01:30.569 And it seems like things have gotten really kind 00:01:30.569 --> 00:01:32.769 of aggressive. Yeah, the thing that's so fascinating 00:01:32.769 --> 00:01:36.469 here is just how openly the administration has 00:01:36.469 --> 00:01:39.230 been defying a court order. Yeah. It's not even 00:01:39.230 --> 00:01:41.310 just like, oh, they're slow rolling the information. 00:01:41.489 --> 00:01:43.310 You know, they're like taking their time. The 00:01:43.310 --> 00:01:46.549 language in their legal filings has been so... 00:01:46.560 --> 00:01:49.379 so insulting towards the judge. Give me an example. 00:01:49.579 --> 00:01:51.540 Like one of the things they said was it was a 00:01:51.540 --> 00:01:54.239 Paclunian dispute over the micromanagement of 00:01:54.239 --> 00:01:57.439 immaterial fact -finding. Wow. They accused the 00:01:57.439 --> 00:02:01.040 judge of engaging in like unnecessary judicial 00:02:01.040 --> 00:02:04.870 phishing expeditions. Okay, so really, really 00:02:04.870 --> 00:02:07.170 disrespectful. It's wild. This is not the kind 00:02:07.170 --> 00:02:08.909 of language you usually see in these documents. 00:02:09.050 --> 00:02:11.169 Okay, so I'm guessing Judge Boesberg didn't just 00:02:11.169 --> 00:02:13.909 let that go, right? What was his reaction? No, 00:02:13.909 --> 00:02:16.550 not at all. He shot back pretty directly. Basically 00:02:16.550 --> 00:02:19.169 said, the information you provided is woefully 00:02:19.169 --> 00:02:22.389 insufficient and set a very hard deadline for 00:02:22.389 --> 00:02:24.750 them to give him what he wants. Okay, so real 00:02:24.750 --> 00:02:27.169 showdown brewing there. Yeah, absolutely. So 00:02:27.169 --> 00:02:29.409 what are the consequences if they don't actually 00:02:29.409 --> 00:02:31.169 meet those deadlines? Now, I know it can be tough 00:02:31.169 --> 00:02:33.840 to hold a a former president directly in contempt, 00:02:34.360 --> 00:02:36.340 what about his legal team, the people around 00:02:36.340 --> 00:02:38.419 him? So this brings up the question of where 00:02:38.419 --> 00:02:41.479 does the court's power actually reach? And like 00:02:41.479 --> 00:02:43.560 you said, holding a former president in contempt 00:02:43.560 --> 00:02:45.800 has its own complexities, which we don't need 00:02:45.800 --> 00:02:48.300 to get into all of that. But their lawyers, the 00:02:48.300 --> 00:02:50.560 people working for them, they are definitely 00:02:50.560 --> 00:02:53.639 within the court's reach. Like retired federal 00:02:53.639 --> 00:02:56.340 judge Shira Scheinlein has said, if they fail 00:02:56.340 --> 00:02:58.560 to comply with these orders, if they provide 00:02:58.560 --> 00:03:01.979 false information, they could be hit with criminal 00:03:01.979 --> 00:03:05.139 contempt charges. Now whether that actually happens 00:03:05.139 --> 00:03:07.740 is another question. Given who's running the 00:03:07.740 --> 00:03:10.240 Justice Department right now, AG Pem Bondi, it 00:03:10.240 --> 00:03:12.960 seems pretty unlikely. Okay, so criminal contempt's 00:03:12.960 --> 00:03:15.979 maybe a long shot. What other options does Judge 00:03:15.979 --> 00:03:18.539 Bosberg have then? Civil contempt is definitely 00:03:18.539 --> 00:03:21.060 on the table. And that can get pretty serious. 00:03:21.139 --> 00:03:23.960 That could mean jail time, which would definitely 00:03:23.960 --> 00:03:26.580 get their attention. It could mean hefty fines 00:03:26.580 --> 00:03:29.439 that could add up really quickly. And probably 00:03:29.439 --> 00:03:31.939 the most like, professionally damaging thing 00:03:31.939 --> 00:03:34.680 would be a referral to the bar for disciplinary 00:03:34.680 --> 00:03:37.379 action. Right. So they could potentially lose 00:03:37.379 --> 00:03:40.060 their law licenses. Oh, wow. And this is important. 00:03:40.219 --> 00:03:42.159 Even a presidential pardon wouldn't protect them 00:03:42.159 --> 00:03:44.479 from that. So a pardon wouldn't cover that? No, 00:03:44.639 --> 00:03:46.740 a pardon wouldn't cover the loss of their bar 00:03:46.740 --> 00:03:49.780 card. OK. So that's a pretty powerful tool. Wow. 00:03:49.919 --> 00:03:53.439 I mean, it's kind of wild to see lawyers taking 00:03:53.439 --> 00:03:55.740 these risks. Yeah, it's a big gamble for sure. 00:03:56.009 --> 00:03:58.330 Yeah, it really shows you how high the stakes 00:03:58.330 --> 00:04:01.469 are. Absolutely. On a kind of related note, Chief 00:04:01.469 --> 00:04:04.330 Justice John Roberts actually made a really unusual 00:04:04.330 --> 00:04:07.210 public statement recently that I thought was 00:04:07.210 --> 00:04:08.750 pretty interesting. What's fascinating about 00:04:08.750 --> 00:04:11.590 this is that Roberts almost never weighs in publicly 00:04:11.590 --> 00:04:14.710 like this. Right. And he did it in response to 00:04:14.710 --> 00:04:17.670 some Republicans calling for Boasberg to be impeached. 00:04:17.689 --> 00:04:19.870 OK. So, you know, he put out this very short 00:04:19.870 --> 00:04:22.410 two sentence statement and he said, for more 00:04:22.410 --> 00:04:24.449 than two centuries, it has been established that 00:04:24.449 --> 00:04:26.800 impeachment is not not an appropriate response 00:04:26.800 --> 00:04:29.079 to disagreement concerning a judicial decision. 00:04:29.519 --> 00:04:32.199 The normal appellate review process exists for 00:04:32.199 --> 00:04:34.519 that purpose. That's a pretty clear message. 00:04:34.660 --> 00:04:36.920 Yeah. No ambiguity there. No. He's defending 00:04:36.920 --> 00:04:38.500 the courts. And this isn't the first time he's 00:04:38.500 --> 00:04:40.300 done that, right? Not at all. He's been pretty 00:04:40.300 --> 00:04:42.459 consistent in defending the independence of the 00:04:42.459 --> 00:04:45.100 judiciary. Even going back to when Trump was 00:04:45.100 --> 00:04:47.459 president, like in 2018, he issued a similar 00:04:47.459 --> 00:04:50.000 warning. OK. So he clearly sees these attacks 00:04:50.000 --> 00:04:53.199 on judges as a threat to the whole system. Yeah, 00:04:53.480 --> 00:04:55.420 and it makes it even more interesting that Judge 00:04:55.420 --> 00:04:59.199 Boesberg, I mean, he's kind of a weird target 00:04:59.199 --> 00:05:01.279 for this kind of attack, isn't he? Totally. If 00:05:01.279 --> 00:05:03.300 you look at his background, he's not some partisan 00:05:03.300 --> 00:05:06.040 hack. Right. He was appointed by both Bush and 00:05:06.040 --> 00:05:09.629 Obama. OK. Even Roberts has a lot of respect 00:05:09.629 --> 00:05:12.350 for him. He's appointed him to a bunch of important 00:05:12.350 --> 00:05:15.470 roles, like being the chief judge of the FISA 00:05:15.470 --> 00:05:17.949 court. And get this, he was actually college 00:05:17.949 --> 00:05:20.709 roommates with Brett Kavanaugh. Wow, okay. So 00:05:20.709 --> 00:05:23.129 this is not some radical figure. He's a really 00:05:23.129 --> 00:05:25.350 lousy target for the administration to go after. 00:05:25.470 --> 00:05:27.250 It's almost like they only really care about 00:05:27.250 --> 00:05:29.050 decisions that come straight from the Supreme 00:05:29.050 --> 00:05:30.649 Court. Right, like that's the only court that 00:05:30.649 --> 00:05:32.759 matters to them. probably because they think 00:05:32.759 --> 00:05:36.600 they have that 6 -3 majority locked in. But they 00:05:36.600 --> 00:05:39.259 might be miscalculating here, because if this 00:05:39.259 --> 00:05:41.319 Boasberg case actually makes it to the Supreme 00:05:41.319 --> 00:05:44.399 Court, there are at least a couple of those conservative 00:05:44.399 --> 00:05:46.980 justices who have shown that they're not afraid 00:05:46.980 --> 00:05:49.439 to go against the administration. Interesting. 00:05:49.800 --> 00:05:51.660 So it might not be the slam dunk they're hoping 00:05:51.660 --> 00:05:53.319 for. All right, well, let's shift gears a little 00:05:53.319 --> 00:05:56.160 bit, but stay on the legal thing. There's this 00:05:56.160 --> 00:05:59.459 whole situation with the Pol Weiss law firm. 00:05:59.519 --> 00:06:01.529 Yeah. That honestly sounds like something out 00:06:01.529 --> 00:06:03.769 of a movie. It's pretty wild. It's like a political 00:06:03.769 --> 00:06:07.000 thriller or something. It really is. The administration 00:06:07.000 --> 00:06:09.120 is basically targeting this law firm. Right. 00:06:09.300 --> 00:06:12.459 Because one of their former partners, Mark Pomerantz, 00:06:12.480 --> 00:06:15.220 was involved in some investigations related to 00:06:15.220 --> 00:06:17.660 President Trump. Yeah, he was part of those investigations. 00:06:18.000 --> 00:06:20.160 So what did they do? Like, how did they target 00:06:20.160 --> 00:06:23.139 the firm? So they issued an executive order that 00:06:23.139 --> 00:06:26.420 basically stripped the firm of its security clearances. 00:06:26.500 --> 00:06:29.199 Wow. And that makes it incredibly difficult for 00:06:29.199 --> 00:06:32.759 them to work on any federal cases or even interact 00:06:32.759 --> 00:06:34.620 with federal government employees. So they're 00:06:34.620 --> 00:06:36.459 basically shut out. Yeah, they're pretty much 00:06:36.459 --> 00:06:38.660 frozen out. And it seems like this is about more 00:06:38.660 --> 00:06:41.180 than just punishing this one firm. Oh, absolutely. 00:06:41.300 --> 00:06:44.439 It sends a really chilling message to any organization 00:06:44.439 --> 00:06:46.779 that might even think about investigating the 00:06:46.779 --> 00:06:48.319 administration. Right, don't even think about 00:06:48.319 --> 00:06:50.740 it. Or opposing them in any way. It's a huge 00:06:50.740 --> 00:06:53.439 power play. So how did Paul Weiss respond to 00:06:53.439 --> 00:06:56.629 this? Pretty intense pressure. Well, they basically 00:06:56.629 --> 00:06:59.509 caved. OK. You know, they were facing huge pressure, 00:06:59.769 --> 00:07:01.870 reportedly losing clients. Right. And they ended 00:07:01.870 --> 00:07:03.769 up making a bunch of concessions. Like what? 00:07:03.990 --> 00:07:07.189 So they formally apologized for Pomerance's wrongdoing. 00:07:07.209 --> 00:07:10.250 Wow. They agreed to scrap their DEI efforts, 00:07:10.430 --> 00:07:12.670 their diversity, equity, and inclusion programs. 00:07:12.769 --> 00:07:15.810 And they promised to do $40 million worth of 00:07:15.810 --> 00:07:18.290 pro bono legal work for the government. Oh, wow. 00:07:18.310 --> 00:07:20.730 And I remember it was specifically pro bono work 00:07:20.730 --> 00:07:25.250 related to combating anti -Semitism and assisting 00:07:25.250 --> 00:07:28.209 veterans. But there's some real skepticism about 00:07:28.209 --> 00:07:31.089 whether that anti -Semitism claim was genuine. 00:07:31.269 --> 00:07:33.050 Oh, yeah, totally. I mean, if you look at the 00:07:33.050 --> 00:07:35.550 administration's own history, there are connections 00:07:35.550 --> 00:07:38.069 to some pretty questionable figures. The idea 00:07:38.069 --> 00:07:40.250 that this was really about fighting anti -Semitism 00:07:40.250 --> 00:07:43.379 just doesn't hold water. It seems much more like 00:07:43.379 --> 00:07:45.800 they forced this concession out of the firm. 00:07:46.079 --> 00:07:47.759 It's a pretty messed up situation. Yeah, one 00:07:47.759 --> 00:07:50.019 of our sources said, the whole thing stinks to 00:07:50.019 --> 00:07:52.079 high heaven. I can see why they would say that. 00:07:52.240 --> 00:07:53.959 You know, it's setting a dangerous precedent. 00:07:54.019 --> 00:07:56.800 Right. Can you hold a law firm responsible for 00:07:56.800 --> 00:07:59.680 what a former partner does? Right. And can the 00:07:59.680 --> 00:08:02.800 president really use executive power to extract 00:08:02.800 --> 00:08:04.800 these kinds of concessions? Yeah, it's pretty 00:08:04.800 --> 00:08:07.120 worried. It is. But the thing is, even if some 00:08:07.120 --> 00:08:10.019 of those provisions are legally dubious, challenging 00:08:10.019 --> 00:08:12.620 them in court takes a a lot of time and money, 00:08:12.879 --> 00:08:14.779 and that's probably what the administration's 00:08:14.779 --> 00:08:16.879 counting on. Wear them down. Exactly. And it 00:08:16.879 --> 00:08:19.100 sounds like Paul Weiss might not be the only 00:08:19.100 --> 00:08:21.420 firm facing this kind of pressure. Unfortunately, 00:08:21.740 --> 00:08:24.000 no. There are rumors that other firms are in 00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:26.720 the administration's sights. Hm. That's not a 00:08:26.720 --> 00:08:28.939 good trend. No, not at all. It's pretty concerning 00:08:28.939 --> 00:08:31.939 for the legal profession as a whole. Yeah. OK. 00:08:32.039 --> 00:08:34.379 Well, on a slightly lighter note, there's this 00:08:34.379 --> 00:08:36.179 Schadenfreude story this week that I just had 00:08:36.179 --> 00:08:38.299 to share. Oh, yeah. This is a good one. It's 00:08:38.299 --> 00:08:41.080 just too perfect. It really is. So this Minnesota 00:08:41.080 --> 00:08:44.460 state senator, Justin Eichhorn, he actually introduced 00:08:44.460 --> 00:08:48.389 a bill to try to classify what he called Trump 00:08:48.389 --> 00:08:51.330 derangement syndrome as a mental illness. You 00:08:51.330 --> 00:08:53.230 can't make this stuff up. I know, right? Too 00:08:53.230 --> 00:08:56.649 good. And he defined it as, like, an acute onset 00:08:56.649 --> 00:09:00.769 of paranoia in reaction to the policies and presidencies 00:09:00.769 --> 00:09:03.610 of President Donald J. Trump. Wow. So anyone 00:09:03.610 --> 00:09:06.009 who disagrees with Trump is basically mentally 00:09:06.009 --> 00:09:08.580 ill? That's the gist of it, yeah. OK. But. Here's 00:09:08.580 --> 00:09:11.399 the best part. What happened? So shortly after 00:09:11.399 --> 00:09:13.919 introducing this bill, Senator Eichhorn, who 00:09:13.919 --> 00:09:16.379 is a married father of four. Oh, wow. He gets 00:09:16.379 --> 00:09:19.580 caught up in this whole, like, online solicitation 00:09:19.580 --> 00:09:21.740 thing. Oh, no. But he's messaging someone he 00:09:21.740 --> 00:09:24.379 thinks is a 17 -year -old girl. Oh, dear. Sending 00:09:24.379 --> 00:09:26.899 messages like, chance you are still available 00:09:26.899 --> 00:09:29.559 tonight. And what's a guy got to do to get with 00:09:29.559 --> 00:09:32.399 the hottest girl online tonight? Oh, my. Of course, 00:09:32.399 --> 00:09:34.940 it turns out it's an undercover police detective. 00:09:35.279 --> 00:09:37.659 Classic. So he shows up for the meeting with 00:09:37.519 --> 00:09:42.480 with like $129 in a condom. Oh no. And he gets 00:09:42.480 --> 00:09:45.399 busted. Wow. Arrested for soliciting a minor. 00:09:45.820 --> 00:09:48.340 So what happened to him? Well, he immediately 00:09:48.340 --> 00:09:50.899 resigned from the state Senate. OK. And reportedly, 00:09:51.500 --> 00:09:53.879 his wife is planning to file for divorce. Talk 00:09:53.879 --> 00:09:56.039 about a fall from grace. Yeah, it's pretty, pretty 00:09:56.039 --> 00:09:58.279 wild. That's comma for you. Yeah, I guess so. 00:09:58.419 --> 00:09:59.840 All right. Well, let's move on to the economy. 00:09:59.860 --> 00:10:01.279 Yeah, let's talk money, money, money, money. 00:10:01.299 --> 00:10:04.539 So we've got this analysis from KKR about the 00:10:04.539 --> 00:10:07.899 March 2025 FOMC meeting. That's the Federal Open 00:10:07.899 --> 00:10:09.899 Market Committee. Right, the Fed. Yeah, the Fed. 00:10:10.279 --> 00:10:11.940 And it seems like they're painting a pretty complicated 00:10:11.940 --> 00:10:13.500 picture. Yeah, things are definitely getting 00:10:13.500 --> 00:10:15.879 interesting. So what did the Fed actually do 00:10:15.879 --> 00:10:18.669 at this meeting? Okay, so the big decision was 00:10:18.669 --> 00:10:22.169 they kept interest rates unchanged, which everyone 00:10:22.169 --> 00:10:25.230 was expecting, but they did announce a pretty 00:10:25.230 --> 00:10:28.090 big slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening. 00:10:28.289 --> 00:10:30.590 Okay, and for our listeners who might not be 00:10:30.590 --> 00:10:34.190 total economics nerds, can you explain what quantitative 00:10:34.190 --> 00:10:36.909 tightening actually is? Sure, so basically it's 00:10:36.909 --> 00:10:39.350 like the opposite of quantitative easing, which 00:10:39.350 --> 00:10:41.850 is what the Fed did during those crisis periods. 00:10:41.929 --> 00:10:44.649 They pumped a ton of money into the economy. 00:10:45.440 --> 00:10:47.220 Quantitative tightening is when they start pulling 00:10:47.220 --> 00:10:49.240 their money back out. OK, so they're slowing 00:10:49.240 --> 00:10:51.539 down that process. Right. They reduced it from 00:10:51.539 --> 00:10:55.419 $25 billion per month down to just $5 billion 00:10:55.419 --> 00:10:58.259 per month starting in April. And that's a bigger 00:10:58.259 --> 00:11:00.740 and earlier reduction than a lot of people, including 00:11:00.740 --> 00:11:04.100 KKR, were expecting. Interesting. So what about 00:11:04.100 --> 00:11:06.580 the Fed's overall assessment of the economy? 00:11:06.679 --> 00:11:08.080 It sounds like they've changed their tune a bit. 00:11:08.220 --> 00:11:10.159 Yeah, they've definitely adjusted their forecasts. 00:11:10.240 --> 00:11:12.340 So they put out these projections. It's called 00:11:12.340 --> 00:11:15.539 the dot clot, which basically shows where each 00:11:15.539 --> 00:11:17.980 Fed official thinks the economy's headed. Right. 00:11:18.159 --> 00:11:20.679 And they've downgraded their expectations for 00:11:20.679 --> 00:11:24.620 economic growth in both 2025 and 2026. So they're 00:11:24.620 --> 00:11:26.799 expecting slower growth. Right, slower growth. 00:11:26.899 --> 00:11:28.899 But at the same time, they've actually raised 00:11:28.899 --> 00:11:31.440 their inflation forecasts for those same years. 00:11:31.559 --> 00:11:33.879 So slower growth and higher inflation. That's 00:11:33.879 --> 00:11:35.879 the picture they're painting. But they're still 00:11:35.879 --> 00:11:37.779 predicting two interest rate cuts in both of 00:11:37.779 --> 00:11:39.759 those years. Yeah, that's the thing. It seems 00:11:39.759 --> 00:11:41.639 a little contradictory. It does, right? And that's 00:11:41.639 --> 00:11:44.039 exactly what KKR pointed out in their analysis. 00:11:44.240 --> 00:11:46.399 They think this shows that the Fed is more worried 00:11:46.399 --> 00:11:49.240 about growth slowing down too much than they 00:11:49.240 --> 00:11:51.820 are about inflation getting out of control. Interesting. 00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:54.600 And this fits with their bigger regime change 00:11:54.600 --> 00:11:57.580 thesis. Which is? Basically, they think the fundamental 00:11:57.580 --> 00:12:00.200 drivers of the economy are shifting and that 00:12:00.200 --> 00:12:02.220 we're going to need lower interest rates in the 00:12:02.220 --> 00:12:04.779 long run. Okay, so it sounds like those trade 00:12:04.779 --> 00:12:06.919 disputes and the tariffs are playing a big role 00:12:06.919 --> 00:12:09.659 in this economic picture. Oh, for sure. Yeah. 00:12:09.840 --> 00:12:12.840 Powell himself, the Fed chair, you know, he acknowledged 00:12:12.840 --> 00:12:15.019 that people are really worried about the economy, 00:12:15.639 --> 00:12:17.480 especially because of the ongoing trade war. 00:12:17.500 --> 00:12:20.000 Right. And he even used the word transitory. 00:12:20.019 --> 00:12:22.039 Okay. When he was talking about inflation caused 00:12:22.039 --> 00:12:24.320 by tariffs. Now that word transitory, that's 00:12:24.320 --> 00:12:26.559 a bit loaded, isn't it? It is, especially for 00:12:26.559 --> 00:12:29.259 the Fed. After all that inflation we saw back 00:12:29.259 --> 00:12:32.980 in 2021 to 2023. Yeah, they kept saying it was 00:12:32.980 --> 00:12:35.419 transitory back then. Exactly, not really. So 00:12:35.419 --> 00:12:37.919 KKR thinks that Powell, using that word now, 00:12:37.919 --> 00:12:40.919 means the Fed is pretty confident they can handle 00:12:40.919 --> 00:12:42.840 whatever inflation comes from these tariffs. 00:12:42.980 --> 00:12:44.700 OK, so they think they've got it under control. 00:12:44.720 --> 00:12:47.460 That's what it seems like. And KKR has some specific 00:12:47.460 --> 00:12:49.399 projections about how those tariffs are going 00:12:49.399 --> 00:12:52.500 to hit US growth, right? They do. They're forecasting 00:12:52.500 --> 00:12:56.580 a drag of about 0 .8 percentage points, or 80 00:12:56.580 --> 00:12:58.919 % basis points if you're into the financial jargon 00:12:58.919 --> 00:13:01.940 on US economic growth this year. And they say 00:13:01.940 --> 00:13:03.919 that's directly because of those tariffs. And 00:13:03.919 --> 00:13:05.519 how high do they think those tariffs are going 00:13:05.519 --> 00:13:08.419 to get? They're expecting them to average around 00:13:08.419 --> 00:13:11.500 11%. OK, that's significant. Yeah, it's a pretty 00:13:11.500 --> 00:13:14.039 big hit. And they also say April 2 is a key date 00:13:14.039 --> 00:13:16.639 to watch. OK, why is that? Because that's when 00:13:16.639 --> 00:13:19.639 the administration might announce even more tariffs. 00:13:19.779 --> 00:13:21.840 So things could actually get worse. Potentially, 00:13:22.080 --> 00:13:24.929 yeah. But here's the interesting thing. KKR also 00:13:24.929 --> 00:13:27.929 suggests that these same policies might actually 00:13:27.929 --> 00:13:30.090 create opportunities in other parts of the world. 00:13:30.190 --> 00:13:32.090 Right. It's kind of a weird silver lining. So 00:13:32.090 --> 00:13:34.049 they're talking about a structural opportunity 00:13:34.049 --> 00:13:36.909 emerging outside of the U .S. OK. And that's 00:13:36.909 --> 00:13:40.049 because of those U .S. tariffs and because Europe 00:13:40.049 --> 00:13:42.250 and China are responding differently. So how 00:13:42.250 --> 00:13:43.870 are they responding differently? Well, they're 00:13:43.870 --> 00:13:46.889 both putting in place new fiscal stimulus measures 00:13:46.889 --> 00:13:50.289 while the U .S. is basically tightening its economic 00:13:50.289 --> 00:13:51.990 policy. So it's kind of like they're going in 00:13:51.850 --> 00:13:54.629 in opposite directions. Exactly. And KKR also 00:13:54.629 --> 00:13:57.190 expects the US dollar to keep weakening. OK, 00:13:57.309 --> 00:14:00.269 interesting. So what's the big economic indicator 00:14:00.269 --> 00:14:02.590 that KKR is watching right now? What are they 00:14:02.590 --> 00:14:05.370 really focused on? Productivity. They're specifically 00:14:05.370 --> 00:14:07.330 looking at the data for the first quarter of 00:14:07.330 --> 00:14:10.070 this year, which comes out in late April. And 00:14:10.070 --> 00:14:12.809 they think if productivity takes a hit, that's 00:14:12.809 --> 00:14:14.649 going to put a lot of pressure on the Fed to 00:14:14.649 --> 00:14:17.269 cut interest rates. And it could also be bad 00:14:17.269 --> 00:14:20.070 news for the stock market. OK, so productivity 00:14:20.070 --> 00:14:22.169 is the key thing to watch. That's the one. All 00:14:22.169 --> 00:14:24.210 right, well, let's move on from money to education. 00:14:24.269 --> 00:14:26.429 OK. And it sounds like the Trump administration 00:14:26.429 --> 00:14:28.730 is being super aggressive here. Yeah, they're 00:14:28.730 --> 00:14:30.870 really shaking things up. Really trying to reshape 00:14:30.870 --> 00:14:33.110 the whole higher education system. Yeah, they're 00:14:33.110 --> 00:14:35.029 coming at it from all angles. So let's start 00:14:35.029 --> 00:14:36.970 with those defunding efforts. OK. You've seen 00:14:36.970 --> 00:14:38.690 some pretty huge numbers being thrown around. 00:14:38.789 --> 00:14:41.230 Oh, yeah, some really big cuts. Like, what are 00:14:41.230 --> 00:14:43.750 some examples? Well, Columbia University reportedly 00:14:43.750 --> 00:14:48.179 had about 400 million in federal grants and contracts 00:14:48.179 --> 00:14:50.879 canceled. And the administration said it was 00:14:50.879 --> 00:14:53.179 because they weren't doing enough to fight anti 00:14:53.179 --> 00:14:56.149 -Semitism on campus. And then you've got the 00:14:56.149 --> 00:14:59.549 University of Pennsylvania. They lost $175 million, 00:15:00.090 --> 00:15:03.570 supposedly because of their policies on transgender 00:15:03.570 --> 00:15:06.070 athletes. OK, so those are two pretty big examples. 00:15:06.169 --> 00:15:07.889 Yeah, those are just the tip of the iceberg, 00:15:08.090 --> 00:15:09.870 though. Really? Yeah, there are a bunch of other 00:15:09.870 --> 00:15:11.950 universities under investigation right now. Oh, 00:15:11.950 --> 00:15:14.370 wow. For similar stuff, you know, not dealing 00:15:14.370 --> 00:15:17.590 with anti -Semitism or having controversial diversity 00:15:17.590 --> 00:15:20.809 programs and affirmative action policies. OK, 00:15:20.830 --> 00:15:23.230 and what about that USAID stuff? Oh, yeah, the 00:15:23.230 --> 00:15:25.450 United States Agency for International Right, 00:15:25.649 --> 00:15:28.090 USA. So they've basically been gutted. OK. And 00:15:28.090 --> 00:15:30.870 that's reportedly cost Johns Hopkins University 00:15:30.870 --> 00:15:34.269 something like $800 million. Wow. In existing 00:15:34.269 --> 00:15:36.950 contracts, which has led to a ton of layoffs. 00:15:36.950 --> 00:15:39.549 Oh, wow. It's been a big blow. OK, so legally 00:15:39.549 --> 00:15:42.629 speaking, these defunding moves seem pretty shaky, 00:15:42.830 --> 00:15:44.830 right? Yeah, a lot of legal experts are saying 00:15:44.830 --> 00:15:47.009 that they're saying it could be a breach of contract 00:15:47.009 --> 00:15:49.750 by the government. OK. And that they're not following 00:15:49.750 --> 00:15:52.049 the proper procedures for cutting off funding. 00:15:52.370 --> 00:15:54.029 Right, because normally there's a whole process. 00:15:53.799 --> 00:15:56.500 for that exactly the argument is that the president 00:15:56.500 --> 00:15:59.120 can't just unilaterally cancel these agreements 00:15:59.120 --> 00:16:01.360 right just because he doesn't like what a university 00:16:01.360 --> 00:16:03.399 is doing so it's not as simple as him just saying 00:16:03.399 --> 00:16:05.620 I don't like you no more money right it's not 00:16:05.620 --> 00:16:09.620 that easy okay Donna Lieberman from the NYCLU, 00:16:09.779 --> 00:16:12.279 the New York Civil Liberties Union, she called 00:16:12.279 --> 00:16:15.740 it an unconstitutional attempt to censor speech. 00:16:15.899 --> 00:16:19.320 Wow. But even if the universities have a strong 00:16:19.320 --> 00:16:21.799 legal case, going up against the federal government 00:16:21.799 --> 00:16:24.779 in court is a long and expensive battle. Right. 00:16:24.779 --> 00:16:26.139 And who knows what kind of judge you're going 00:16:26.139 --> 00:16:28.320 to get. Exactly. You could end up with a Trump 00:16:28.320 --> 00:16:31.019 appointee. So that's a big risk for these universities. 00:16:31.080 --> 00:16:33.039 Yeah. It's a tough spot for them. It really is. 00:16:33.179 --> 00:16:35.159 And we've seen some really different responses 00:16:35.159 --> 00:16:38.679 from different universities. Columbia and Georgetown 00:16:38.679 --> 00:16:40.840 come to mind? Yeah, those are two good examples. 00:16:41.039 --> 00:16:43.820 So how did they handle this pressure? Well, Columbia 00:16:43.820 --> 00:16:46.519 basically surrendered. People have called it 00:16:46.519 --> 00:16:49.820 utterly humiliating. They agreed to all sorts 00:16:49.820 --> 00:16:52.460 of demands. Like what? Give me some specifics. 00:16:52.679 --> 00:16:54.659 Well, they're going to discipline students who 00:16:54.659 --> 00:16:57.120 were involved in those pro -Palestinian protests. 00:16:57.139 --> 00:16:59.879 They're adopting a very specific definition of 00:16:59.879 --> 00:17:03.080 anti -Semitism, which could be seen as pretty 00:17:03.080 --> 00:17:05.920 limiting. They're overhauling their admissions 00:17:05.920 --> 00:17:08.440 policies. They're basically putting their Middle 00:17:08.440 --> 00:17:11.680 East studies departments under academic receivership. 00:17:11.839 --> 00:17:13.319 So they're losing control of those departments. 00:17:13.579 --> 00:17:16.279 Pretty much, yeah. Wow. They're increasing the 00:17:16.279 --> 00:17:19.160 presence of police on campus, giving them more 00:17:19.160 --> 00:17:22.039 authority. And they're even banning masks on 00:17:22.039 --> 00:17:24.700 campus, unless you have ID. Wow. That's a lot 00:17:24.700 --> 00:17:27.200 of concessions. It's a pretty comprehensive surrender. 00:17:27.380 --> 00:17:29.119 OK, so what about Georgetown? What do they do? 00:17:29.160 --> 00:17:31.819 Well, Georgetown Law, under Dean William Tremer, 00:17:31.960 --> 00:17:35.279 they put up a much stronger They were facing 00:17:35.279 --> 00:17:38.000 pressure from the acting U .S. attorney to get 00:17:38.000 --> 00:17:40.660 rid of their DEI initiatives, their diversity, 00:17:40.940 --> 00:17:44.099 equity, and inclusion programs. And Trier basically 00:17:44.099 --> 00:17:47.420 said, no way. Okay, so how did he justify that? 00:17:47.539 --> 00:17:50.220 What were his arguments? So he really emphasized 00:17:50.220 --> 00:17:54.180 the idea of academic freedom. saying that the 00:17:54.180 --> 00:17:56.680 government can't tell universities what to teach, 00:17:57.079 --> 00:17:59.440 and he cited the First Amendment. Okay, so free 00:17:59.440 --> 00:18:02.180 speech arguments. Exactly. He also pointed out 00:18:02.180 --> 00:18:05.920 how ironic it was. that a Catholic official was 00:18:05.920 --> 00:18:07.940 threatening Georgetown. Right, because Georgetown 00:18:07.940 --> 00:18:11.160 is a Jesuit institution. Exactly. You know, their 00:18:11.160 --> 00:18:13.640 whole identity is built on this idea of open 00:18:13.640 --> 00:18:16.720 dialogue and intellectual inquiry. And he also 00:18:16.720 --> 00:18:20.200 demanded guarantees that Georgetown faculty and 00:18:20.200 --> 00:18:22.920 staff wouldn't be discriminated against in hiring. 00:18:23.079 --> 00:18:26.400 So it was a really strong defense of the university's 00:18:26.400 --> 00:18:28.680 autonomy. So they stood their ground? They did. 00:18:28.859 --> 00:18:31.039 Okay, so in addition to the defunding stuff, 00:18:31.500 --> 00:18:33.119 there are also reports that the administration 00:18:33.039 --> 00:18:36.900 is targeting foreign -born students and faculty. 00:18:37.240 --> 00:18:39.539 Yeah, that's a really worrying trend. Yeah, it 00:18:39.539 --> 00:18:41.079 seems like it could have some pretty big long 00:18:41.079 --> 00:18:43.180 -term consequences. Oh, absolutely. For universities. 00:18:43.319 --> 00:18:45.599 Yeah, it could really hurt their ability to attract 00:18:45.599 --> 00:18:48.220 global talent. Right. We've seen multiple cases 00:18:48.220 --> 00:18:50.640 of foreign students and faculty at places like 00:18:50.640 --> 00:18:53.319 Columbia, Brown, Georgetown being detained or 00:18:53.319 --> 00:18:55.740 even deported. Wow. And the administration's 00:18:55.740 --> 00:18:58.500 rhetoric is really disturbing. Give me an example. 00:18:58.640 --> 00:19:01.759 They're using terms like terrorists, gang members, 00:19:02.119 --> 00:19:04.700 invaders. Wow. Okay. It's very dehumanizing. 00:19:04.740 --> 00:19:06.539 Yeah, that's pretty extreme. It is. And it's 00:19:06.539 --> 00:19:09.339 creating this climate of fear. Right. On campuses, 00:19:09.920 --> 00:19:12.720 some universities in California are even holding 00:19:12.720 --> 00:19:15.859 training sessions to teach students and faculty 00:19:15.859 --> 00:19:18.579 what to do if ICE agents show up. Oh, wow. So 00:19:18.579 --> 00:19:20.140 they're preparing for that. Yeah, it's getting 00:19:20.140 --> 00:19:22.200 pretty serious. It's a pretty sad state of affairs. 00:19:22.240 --> 00:19:24.920 It is. Okay. So on top of all that, there's this 00:19:24.920 --> 00:19:27.140 report that the administration is actually trying 00:19:27.140 --> 00:19:29.099 to dismantle of the Department of Education. 00:19:29.160 --> 00:19:31.779 I know, it's crazy, right? It's a huge move. 00:19:31.839 --> 00:19:34.039 It is. So how would they even go about doing 00:19:34.039 --> 00:19:36.559 that? Well, Trump apparently signed an executive 00:19:36.559 --> 00:19:39.599 order. OK. Telling the Secretary of Education 00:19:39.599 --> 00:19:41.819 to start shutting the department down. OK. And 00:19:41.819 --> 00:19:43.900 giving control of education back to the states. 00:19:44.000 --> 00:19:46.920 Right. Now, to actually abolish a federal agency, 00:19:47.519 --> 00:19:50.180 you need Congress to sign off on it. OK. But 00:19:50.180 --> 00:19:53.019 the administration's plan seems to be to just 00:19:53.019 --> 00:19:56.069 make the department non -functional. OK, so starved 00:19:56.069 --> 00:19:58.750 of resources. Exactly. Through executive actions 00:19:58.750 --> 00:20:00.509 and budget cuts. And what kind of impact could 00:20:00.509 --> 00:20:03.309 that have? Well, it could really change the way 00:20:03.309 --> 00:20:05.970 education is run in this country. Right. Less 00:20:05.970 --> 00:20:08.750 federal oversight, less federal funding. Yeah, 00:20:08.750 --> 00:20:11.750 it's a big shift. It is. But it could also backfire 00:20:11.750 --> 00:20:14.630 politically. OK. You know, it could be a big 00:20:14.630 --> 00:20:16.890 issue for Democrats in the next election. Right. 00:20:16.910 --> 00:20:18.390 They could use it against the administration. 00:20:18.769 --> 00:20:21.470 Exactly. Now, the administration often tries 00:20:21.470 --> 00:20:24.650 to justify these actions, especially the ones 00:20:24.650 --> 00:20:27.089 targeting universities, by saying it's all about 00:20:27.089 --> 00:20:29.049 fighting anti -Semitism. Right. That's their 00:20:29.049 --> 00:20:31.490 go -to line. But it doesn't seem like that's 00:20:31.490 --> 00:20:34.069 the whole story, does it? No, it feels pretty 00:20:34.069 --> 00:20:36.150 disingenuous. Yeah. I mean, there's been a lot 00:20:36.150 --> 00:20:38.589 of criticism of that claim. Oh, yeah. One of 00:20:38.589 --> 00:20:40.910 our sources put it perfectly. They quoted Gary 00:20:40.910 --> 00:20:44.470 Cooper and said, it's so phony. Nobody believes 00:20:44.470 --> 00:20:47.109 it. I mean, that's pretty blunt. Yeah, but it's 00:20:47.109 --> 00:20:50.049 true. OK, so if it's not really about anti -Semitism, 00:20:50.250 --> 00:20:53.240 what is it actually about then? Well, it seems 00:20:53.240 --> 00:20:55.460 like it's part of these broader culture wars. 00:20:55.519 --> 00:20:59.079 OK. You know, there's a deep resentment of universities 00:20:59.079 --> 00:21:01.200 within the Republican Party. They see them as 00:21:01.200 --> 00:21:04.460 these bastions of liberalism. And there's also 00:21:04.460 --> 00:21:07.539 resentment from voters who didn't go to college. 00:21:07.599 --> 00:21:09.519 Right. They feel like these universities are 00:21:09.519 --> 00:21:11.660 out of touch. Yeah. And then you've got the fact 00:21:11.660 --> 00:21:14.759 that universities teach critical thinking. They 00:21:14.759 --> 00:21:17.000 expose students to different perspectives. And 00:21:17.000 --> 00:21:19.680 that often clashes with the MAGA worldview. Yeah, 00:21:19.680 --> 00:21:22.420 so they're seen as a threat. Exactly. One commentator 00:21:22.420 --> 00:21:24.960 said, it's not really fighting anti -Semitism 00:21:24.960 --> 00:21:31.160 V1 .0. It's more like culture wars, V by 4553 00:21:31.160 --> 00:21:34.039 by 96. So it's just the latest iteration? Yeah, 00:21:34.160 --> 00:21:37.059 it's the same old fight, just a new battleground. 00:21:37.259 --> 00:21:39.240 And there could even be national security implications 00:21:39.240 --> 00:21:42.059 here, right? Oh yeah, potentially big ones. Like 00:21:42.059 --> 00:21:45.559 what? Well, if you weaken American universities, 00:21:45.819 --> 00:21:48.019 you're basically shooting yourself in the foot. 00:21:48.160 --> 00:21:50.859 You're making it harder to educate the best and 00:21:50.859 --> 00:21:54.079 brightest, to do cutting -edge research, and 00:21:54.079 --> 00:21:57.359 that could ultimately make the U .S. less competitive 00:21:57.359 --> 00:21:59.680 globally. Especially against countries like China. 00:21:59.920 --> 00:22:02.000 Exactly. They're the ones who stand to benefit. 00:22:02.359 --> 00:22:05.289 Okay, so amidst all this pretty heavy stuff. 00:22:05.690 --> 00:22:08.269 Yeah. There was one little story of Froudenfreude 00:22:08.269 --> 00:22:10.730 that I wanted to share. Oh yeah, the fish doorbell. 00:22:11.049 --> 00:22:12.950 Yes, tell me about this. This is such a cool 00:22:12.950 --> 00:22:15.690 story. Okay. So in Utrecht, in the Netherlands, 00:22:16.230 --> 00:22:18.549 they had this problem with fish. Okay. They couldn't 00:22:18.549 --> 00:22:21.150 get through this lock on the canal. Right. During 00:22:21.150 --> 00:22:22.789 their spawning season. So they could reproduce. 00:22:23.289 --> 00:22:25.539 Exactly. Okay, so what did they do? I'm guessing 00:22:25.539 --> 00:22:27.960 they didn't just like ignore the problem? No, 00:22:28.059 --> 00:22:30.180 they came up with this brilliant solution. They 00:22:30.180 --> 00:22:33.539 set up a website with a live underwater webcam. 00:22:33.819 --> 00:22:35.740 So you can see the fish? Yeah, you can see the 00:22:35.740 --> 00:22:38.279 fish swimming around. And then there's this button 00:22:38.279 --> 00:22:41.259 that anyone in the world can click to let the 00:22:41.259 --> 00:22:43.279 lock keeper know that there are fish waiting 00:22:43.279 --> 00:22:45.960 to go through. So basically a doorbell for fish. 00:22:46.319 --> 00:22:49.220 Exactly, a fish doorbell. That's awesome. It's 00:22:49.220 --> 00:22:51.920 so cool and it's been super successful. Really? 00:22:52.160 --> 00:22:53.619 Yeah, millions of people have used it.