WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.540 All right, so we're back and ready to really 00:00:02.540 --> 00:00:07.040 dig into some fascinating stuff happening right 00:00:07.040 --> 00:00:10.240 now, mid -March 2025. We're talking about the 00:00:10.240 --> 00:00:12.359 economy, we're talking about politics. Yeah, 00:00:12.400 --> 00:00:14.919 a lot going on. A lot going on and we've got 00:00:14.919 --> 00:00:17.339 these reports that we're diving into trying to 00:00:17.339 --> 00:00:19.859 figure out, you know, what's going on with inflation? 00:00:20.059 --> 00:00:22.420 What are people actually feeling about the economy? 00:00:22.539 --> 00:00:25.719 What is the Trump administration doing? And what 00:00:25.719 --> 00:00:27.780 does it mean for us, for everyone listening? 00:00:28.100 --> 00:00:30.239 Absolutely. So we'll try to sort of connect all 00:00:30.239 --> 00:00:32.619 those dots. Exactly. Connect the dots, get rid 00:00:32.619 --> 00:00:34.939 of the jargon, make it clear. And just tell you 00:00:34.939 --> 00:00:38.159 what's important. Exactly. And so let's start 00:00:38.159 --> 00:00:40.340 with this economic picture. So I've got the February 00:00:40.340 --> 00:00:43.299 inflation numbers. We've got the CPI, the consumer 00:00:43.299 --> 00:00:45.899 price index, and the PPI, the producer price 00:00:45.899 --> 00:00:49.679 index. And both of them were lower than expected, 00:00:49.740 --> 00:00:52.320 which on the surface, that sounds good. Sounds 00:00:52.320 --> 00:00:54.399 good. So let's unpack that a little bit. All 00:00:54.399 --> 00:00:56.479 right. So the CPI, the headline number, which 00:00:56.479 --> 00:00:59.579 includes everything, rose by just 0 .2 % for 00:00:59.579 --> 00:01:02.820 the month. So not a big jump. And then 2 .8 % 00:01:02.820 --> 00:01:04.739 year over year. And that was actually lower than 00:01:04.739 --> 00:01:07.260 economists were predicting. Energy prices played 00:01:07.260 --> 00:01:09.719 a big role in that, actually. Gasoline was down 00:01:09.719 --> 00:01:13.459 4 .7%. Wow. And we also saw some easing in food 00:01:13.459 --> 00:01:15.640 prices. OK, so it sounds like a pretty broad 00:01:15.640 --> 00:01:18.340 -based decline. And it wasn't just the overall 00:01:18.340 --> 00:01:20.340 CPI, right? That's right. Because there's also 00:01:20.340 --> 00:01:23.159 the core CPI. Exactly. Which takes out those 00:01:23.159 --> 00:01:25.959 more volatile things like food and energy costs. 00:01:26.140 --> 00:01:28.319 And that also came in lower than expected. It 00:01:28.319 --> 00:01:31.659 did, 0 .2 % month over month and 3 .1 % year 00:01:31.659 --> 00:01:33.599 over year. And again, transportation services 00:01:33.599 --> 00:01:36.040 played a big role in that. Airline tickets were 00:01:36.040 --> 00:01:38.739 actually down 4%. OK. And shelter inflation, 00:01:38.760 --> 00:01:41.189 so this is a big part of the core CTI. is your 00:01:41.189 --> 00:01:43.590 housing costs. Sure. That had its lowest year 00:01:43.590 --> 00:01:47.010 over year increase since late 2021. So that suggests 00:01:47.010 --> 00:01:48.989 that maybe things are starting to cool off in 00:01:48.989 --> 00:01:51.250 the housing sector. OK, interesting. Now, the 00:01:51.250 --> 00:01:53.310 PPI, that tells a slightly different story, right? 00:01:53.329 --> 00:01:55.829 Yeah. It was flat month over month for February, 00:01:56.310 --> 00:01:58.909 but it's still up 3 .2 % from a year ago. Right. 00:01:59.030 --> 00:02:01.170 So what should we be taking away from that? Well, 00:02:01.250 --> 00:02:03.569 the PPI looks at prices that domestic producers 00:02:03.569 --> 00:02:05.689 are getting. OK. And the February data showed, 00:02:06.090 --> 00:02:08.110 yes, energy prices were declining, same as the 00:02:08.110 --> 00:02:11.740 CPI. But food prices, actually rose quite a bit, 00:02:12.560 --> 00:02:16.219 1 .7%. And here's what's really interesting is 00:02:16.219 --> 00:02:19.020 that almost half of that increase came from egg 00:02:19.020 --> 00:02:22.270 prices. Eggs, huh? So you gotta talk about eggs. 00:02:22.370 --> 00:02:25.169 That's a very specific item to call out. And 00:02:25.169 --> 00:02:28.509 it's a little strange because just like a week 00:02:28.509 --> 00:02:32.550 later, we got news that wholesale egg prices 00:02:32.550 --> 00:02:35.129 had actually plummeted. Like they went from, 00:02:35.129 --> 00:02:38.229 you know, over $8 a dozen down to like a little 00:02:38.229 --> 00:02:40.810 over $4 a dozen in like a matter of two weeks. 00:02:40.830 --> 00:02:43.150 Wild. It's crazy. And then plus there's that 00:02:43.150 --> 00:02:45.129 whole, you know, Justice Department investigation 00:02:45.129 --> 00:02:47.830 into those earlier price hikes. So what's going 00:02:47.830 --> 00:02:50.419 on with eggs? Well, it shows you that sometimes 00:02:50.419 --> 00:02:52.879 you have to look at the timing of things. And 00:02:52.879 --> 00:02:55.520 the market can change very quickly. Of course. 00:02:55.699 --> 00:02:58.919 Yeah. And so the February PPI data, that captured 00:02:58.919 --> 00:03:02.060 that surge, that early surge. But then prices 00:03:02.060 --> 00:03:04.460 dropped very quickly after that. And then you 00:03:04.460 --> 00:03:07.979 have this DOJ investigation, which suggests that 00:03:07.979 --> 00:03:10.699 maybe something fishy was going on. Maybe it 00:03:10.699 --> 00:03:13.560 was temporary. Maybe it was manipulation. We 00:03:13.560 --> 00:03:16.060 don't know. But it just shows you that economic 00:03:16.060 --> 00:03:18.930 data is a snapshot. It is. It's a snapshot in 00:03:18.930 --> 00:03:21.949 time. It is. And you can have these wild swings, 00:03:22.389 --> 00:03:26.129 and it's hard to really make sense of everything 00:03:26.129 --> 00:03:27.849 sometimes. It really is, especially when you've 00:03:27.849 --> 00:03:30.629 got eggs involved. But OK, so we have this inflation 00:03:30.629 --> 00:03:33.509 picture, right? And it seems like things are 00:03:33.509 --> 00:03:36.169 at least moderating a little bit. But then we 00:03:36.169 --> 00:03:38.270 also got that University of Michigan Consumer 00:03:38.270 --> 00:03:40.629 Sentiment Index, and that really tanked in March. 00:03:40.750 --> 00:03:44.009 Yeah. It hit its lowest point since 2022. Right. 00:03:44.400 --> 00:03:47.060 And that just seems counterintuitive. Inflation 00:03:47.060 --> 00:03:50.699 is easing, but people are feeling worse. Yeah, 00:03:50.840 --> 00:03:52.400 it seems counterintuitive, but this is actually 00:03:52.400 --> 00:03:54.900 pretty common. You know, economic data, it often 00:03:54.900 --> 00:03:59.120 lags behind how people are feeling. Even if the 00:03:59.120 --> 00:04:01.960 numbers look better on paper, if people are stressed, 00:04:02.039 --> 00:04:03.419 they're worried about their jobs, they're worried 00:04:03.419 --> 00:04:05.879 about the economy as a whole, then that's going 00:04:05.879 --> 00:04:08.939 to weigh more heavily than those numbers. And 00:04:08.939 --> 00:04:11.620 what was really interesting in this survey is 00:04:11.620 --> 00:04:14.000 that people's expectations for inflation over 00:04:14.000 --> 00:04:16.620 the next five years, that actually went up to 00:04:16.620 --> 00:04:22.199 a 1993 high, 3 .9%. So even though we're seeing 00:04:22.199 --> 00:04:25.459 some moderation now, there's still a lot of concern 00:04:25.459 --> 00:04:27.439 that inflation is going to stick around. So they're 00:04:27.439 --> 00:04:28.860 thinking, yeah, maybe things are a little bit 00:04:28.860 --> 00:04:31.879 better now. Right. But they're not really seeing 00:04:31.879 --> 00:04:34.819 it getting much better over the next few years. 00:04:34.980 --> 00:04:36.920 Right, exactly. It's not a blip, they think. 00:04:37.019 --> 00:04:39.759 Yeah. And it wasn't just about inflation expectations, 00:04:39.980 --> 00:04:42.519 right? No. Because the survey also pointed to 00:04:42.519 --> 00:04:45.660 concerns about jobs and personal finances. Yeah, 00:04:45.819 --> 00:04:48.160 absolutely. I mean, people are getting more uncertain 00:04:48.160 --> 00:04:49.759 about what's going to happen with jobs in the 00:04:49.759 --> 00:04:51.819 future. And they're getting nervous about their 00:04:51.819 --> 00:04:55.699 own money situation. Sure. And this is important 00:04:55.699 --> 00:04:58.269 because you know, consumer sentiment, how people 00:04:58.269 --> 00:05:00.610 are feeling about the future. That's a big predictor 00:05:00.610 --> 00:05:02.490 of what they're actually going to do. Right. 00:05:02.629 --> 00:05:04.470 And so if they're worried about their jobs, if 00:05:04.470 --> 00:05:07.069 they're worried about making ends meet, they're 00:05:07.069 --> 00:05:09.810 more likely to cut back on spending. And that 00:05:09.810 --> 00:05:11.170 makes sense. You know, if you're not feeling 00:05:11.170 --> 00:05:13.949 secure about your job or your finances, you're 00:05:13.949 --> 00:05:16.889 not going to be as free with. with spending. 00:05:17.269 --> 00:05:18.649 Right. But, you know, it's interesting because 00:05:18.649 --> 00:05:21.250 we also got that Joltz report, the job openings 00:05:21.250 --> 00:05:23.970 and labor turnover report, and that showed that 00:05:23.970 --> 00:05:26.930 the job market was still really strong. In January, 00:05:27.029 --> 00:05:29.610 job openings actually exceeded expectations. 00:05:29.870 --> 00:05:32.290 Exactly. So you have this strong labor market, 00:05:32.449 --> 00:05:34.709 which is good. Yeah. But then you have these 00:05:34.709 --> 00:05:37.870 really pessimistic consumers. Right. So it's 00:05:37.870 --> 00:05:41.170 a mixed bag. It is a mixed bag. So what are we 00:05:41.170 --> 00:05:43.930 supposed to make of all of this? Well, it could 00:05:43.930 --> 00:05:48.449 be that we're in for a bit of a slowdown. If 00:05:48.449 --> 00:05:51.110 consumers cut back on spending, that's going 00:05:51.110 --> 00:05:54.209 to have an effect on growth. And there's another 00:05:54.209 --> 00:05:56.490 factor, and this is important. The inflation 00:05:56.490 --> 00:05:58.889 numbers we've been talking about, those don't 00:05:58.889 --> 00:06:01.290 reflect the tariffs that have recently gone into 00:06:01.290 --> 00:06:05.050 effect. And those tariffs, they can really push 00:06:05.050 --> 00:06:07.529 prices up. So we've got to keep an eye on that. 00:06:07.629 --> 00:06:10.759 Definitely. So we've got to watch how all of 00:06:10.759 --> 00:06:14.060 this plays out, these different factors all interacting. 00:06:14.579 --> 00:06:17.360 So what are some of the other economic things 00:06:17.360 --> 00:06:19.560 that we should be paying attention to in the 00:06:19.560 --> 00:06:22.480 coming weeks and months? This week, the big things 00:06:22.480 --> 00:06:24.879 are going to be the February retail sales report. 00:06:25.540 --> 00:06:27.480 That's going to tell us if those pessimistic 00:06:27.480 --> 00:06:30.699 consumers are actually buying less stuff. Right. 00:06:30.970 --> 00:06:33.829 And then we've got the latest housing data, which 00:06:33.829 --> 00:06:36.389 is going to tell us how that market is doing. 00:06:36.829 --> 00:06:38.529 And then, of course, the Federal Reserve is going 00:06:38.529 --> 00:06:41.069 to be making an interest rate decision. And most 00:06:41.069 --> 00:06:43.829 people think they're going to hold steady, given 00:06:43.829 --> 00:06:46.589 this kind of mixed bag of data that we've been 00:06:46.589 --> 00:06:50.250 talking about. That makes sense. But it's important 00:06:50.250 --> 00:06:52.769 to remember, even if they hold steady, rates 00:06:52.769 --> 00:06:55.250 are still high. Yeah, they are. And that means 00:06:55.250 --> 00:06:59.360 that borrowing costs are still elevated. So that 00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:01.860 makes it more expensive to buy a car, more expensive 00:07:01.860 --> 00:07:04.899 to buy a house. Exactly. So we'll see how that 00:07:04.899 --> 00:07:07.180 plays out in the housing data this week. Absolutely. 00:07:07.379 --> 00:07:09.220 All right. So let's switch gears and look at 00:07:09.220 --> 00:07:12.079 what happened in the financial markets last week. 00:07:12.819 --> 00:07:15.459 Investors weren't exactly doing cartwheels over 00:07:15.459 --> 00:07:18.129 all this, were they? No, not really. They were 00:07:18.129 --> 00:07:21.569 pretty spooked, actually. All the major US stock 00:07:21.569 --> 00:07:24.589 indexes finished the week in the red. The S &P 00:07:24.589 --> 00:07:28.850 500, the NASDAQ, the Dow, all down. The S &P 00:07:28.850 --> 00:07:31.170 500 even dipped into what we call correction 00:07:31.170 --> 00:07:34.149 territory, which means it was down more than 00:07:34.149 --> 00:07:37.470 10 % from its recent peak. So that tells you 00:07:37.470 --> 00:07:39.490 that investors are getting worried. They're kind 00:07:39.490 --> 00:07:42.439 of reassessing things. And they're probably expecting 00:07:42.439 --> 00:07:44.819 some more volatility down the road. So pretty 00:07:44.819 --> 00:07:47.160 widespread declines. Was there any variation 00:07:47.160 --> 00:07:49.740 in different parts of the market? Small caps 00:07:49.740 --> 00:07:52.259 actually did the best out of the domestic stocks. 00:07:52.259 --> 00:07:55.060 OK. But they were still down. OK. Mid caps, they 00:07:55.060 --> 00:07:56.759 were down too. All right. And how about those 00:07:56.759 --> 00:07:59.139 international markets? So international developed 00:07:59.139 --> 00:08:01.600 markets, they also finished the week in the red. 00:08:02.000 --> 00:08:04.889 But they actually outperformed. US equities. 00:08:05.589 --> 00:08:07.550 And emerging markets, those were down a little 00:08:07.550 --> 00:08:09.769 bit less. So there was a global pullback. Yeah. 00:08:10.050 --> 00:08:11.709 But it played out a little bit differently. A 00:08:11.709 --> 00:08:12.870 little bit differently in different regions. 00:08:12.990 --> 00:08:15.910 Yeah. OK. And last but not least, what happened 00:08:15.910 --> 00:08:19.310 in the fixed income markets? The bond market. 00:08:19.529 --> 00:08:23.389 Yeah. So bond yields stayed pretty much the same. 00:08:23.870 --> 00:08:27.009 And most fixed income indices were also down. 00:08:27.009 --> 00:08:30.990 OK. The US aggregate bond index, that's the smallest 00:08:30.990 --> 00:08:33.840 decline. OK. But the high yield corporate bond 00:08:33.840 --> 00:08:37.519 index, that was down more. OK, interesting. So 00:08:37.519 --> 00:08:40.200 overall, kind of a down week, reflecting all 00:08:40.200 --> 00:08:41.820 that uncertainty we were talking about earlier. 00:08:42.279 --> 00:08:45.179 But let's shift gears now. Let's go to politics. 00:08:46.279 --> 00:08:48.539 President Trump did sign that government funding 00:08:48.539 --> 00:08:51.600 bill, so at least we've avoided a shutdown for 00:08:51.600 --> 00:08:53.809 now. Yeah, that's right. So we're good through 00:08:53.809 --> 00:08:56.250 September. OK. Spending levels are pretty much 00:08:56.250 --> 00:08:58.470 the same as they were during the previous administration. 00:08:58.629 --> 00:09:01.370 OK. There were a couple tweaks. Non -defense 00:09:01.370 --> 00:09:04.029 spending is OK. All right. But the report that 00:09:04.029 --> 00:09:06.309 we have here also talks about these increasing 00:09:06.309 --> 00:09:08.909 tensions with the judiciary. It even says that 00:09:08.909 --> 00:09:11.210 the judiciary is the last remaining check on 00:09:11.210 --> 00:09:14.429 presidential power. That's a pretty bold statement. 00:09:14.509 --> 00:09:16.990 It is. So what's going on there? Well, you've 00:09:16.990 --> 00:09:19.210 got some judges pushing back against the administration. 00:09:19.370 --> 00:09:23.419 OK. Judge Tanya Chutkin, for example, she blocked 00:09:23.419 --> 00:09:26.340 the EPA from canceling billions of dollars in 00:09:26.340 --> 00:09:28.919 climate grants. Oh, wow. Those were part of the 00:09:28.919 --> 00:09:31.779 Inflation Reduction Act. And her argument was 00:09:31.779 --> 00:09:35.899 that once Congress allocates money, the executive 00:09:35.899 --> 00:09:37.960 branch is supposed to spend it the way Congress 00:09:37.960 --> 00:09:41.179 said. OK, yeah. So she's basically saying, hey, 00:09:41.759 --> 00:09:43.659 separation of powers. Right. You got to respect 00:09:43.659 --> 00:09:45.279 that. Yeah, that's pretty fundamental to how 00:09:45.279 --> 00:09:47.610 our system works. Yeah. What were some of the 00:09:47.610 --> 00:09:50.730 other examples of judges challenging the administration? 00:09:51.389 --> 00:09:54.450 Well, you've got Judge Jesse Furman. OK. He granted 00:09:54.450 --> 00:09:57.049 an appeal on the case of Mahmoud Khalil. OK. 00:09:57.350 --> 00:10:00.470 This is a green card holder who hasn't actually 00:10:00.470 --> 00:10:02.909 been charged with a crime, but the administration 00:10:02.909 --> 00:10:05.470 wanted to deport him. So Judge Furman said, no, 00:10:05.789 --> 00:10:08.450 not going to happen. He allowed the appeal to 00:10:08.450 --> 00:10:12.110 go forward. He rejected the Justice Department's 00:10:12.110 --> 00:10:14.289 request to move the case to a different court. 00:10:15.350 --> 00:10:19.070 And he said, Look, Mr. Khalil can't be deported 00:10:19.070 --> 00:10:21.909 while this is going on. Right. And the article 00:10:21.909 --> 00:10:25.350 makes the argument that this case might be a 00:10:25.350 --> 00:10:27.950 way to get the Supreme Court to weigh in on whether 00:10:27.950 --> 00:10:31.269 green card holders can be deported for exercising 00:10:31.269 --> 00:10:34.429 their First Amendment rights. Wow, that's a big 00:10:34.429 --> 00:10:36.549 deal. Yeah. You know, especially for people who 00:10:36.549 --> 00:10:38.950 are legal residents here. Absolutely. Big questions 00:10:38.950 --> 00:10:40.269 about what rights and protections they have. 00:10:40.389 --> 00:10:42.210 Exactly. Yeah. And then there's the case of Judge 00:10:42.210 --> 00:10:45.409 James Boasberg. He stopped the deportation of 00:10:45.409 --> 00:10:48.460 some alleged Venezuelan gang members. OK. And 00:10:48.460 --> 00:10:50.340 this actually led to President Trump calling 00:10:50.340 --> 00:10:53.399 for his impeachment. Wow. But the article makes 00:10:53.399 --> 00:10:55.320 a point. It's not about defending gang members. 00:10:55.399 --> 00:10:57.679 Right. It's about due process here. Everybody 00:10:57.679 --> 00:11:00.100 has the right to due process. Even Chief Justice 00:11:00.100 --> 00:11:02.860 John Roberts weighed in on this, said judges 00:11:02.860 --> 00:11:05.080 can't just be impeached because the president 00:11:05.080 --> 00:11:07.450 doesn't like their rulings. Well, yeah. And it's, 00:11:07.450 --> 00:11:09.289 you know, it's the judiciary's job to make sure 00:11:09.289 --> 00:11:11.649 that everybody gets a fair shake in court. Exactly. 00:11:11.789 --> 00:11:14.289 It sounds like the administration isn't really 00:11:14.289 --> 00:11:17.409 happy about these judges pushing back. In fact, 00:11:17.730 --> 00:11:20.970 we've even heard border czar Tom Honeman saying 00:11:20.970 --> 00:11:24.269 basically, you know, I don't care what the judges 00:11:24.269 --> 00:11:27.370 say. Yeah. You know, it's not going to stop us. 00:11:27.730 --> 00:11:30.129 That's a pretty strong statement. It is. He's 00:11:30.129 --> 00:11:32.029 basically saying that the president is above 00:11:32.029 --> 00:11:36.279 the law. Wow. that the law is just a tool for 00:11:36.279 --> 00:11:39.740 the president to use against his enemies. And 00:11:39.740 --> 00:11:42.240 the author of this article, they see that as 00:11:42.240 --> 00:11:44.860 a real threat to our constitutional system. Yeah, 00:11:44.980 --> 00:11:47.039 I mean, that really goes against everything that 00:11:47.039 --> 00:11:50.820 we stand for as a country. So all of this tension 00:11:50.820 --> 00:11:53.000 between the president and the judges, that's 00:11:53.000 --> 00:11:55.549 gotta be... causing some division within the 00:11:55.549 --> 00:11:57.769 Republican Party itself. Yeah, absolutely. What 00:11:57.769 --> 00:12:00.309 are we seeing there? So the article basically 00:12:00.309 --> 00:12:03.070 says a lot of Republicans in Congress, they're 00:12:03.070 --> 00:12:05.370 really worried about what President Trump's doing. 00:12:05.669 --> 00:12:08.470 They're worried about, you know, the rule of 00:12:08.470 --> 00:12:10.929 law, democracy, all that. Yeah. But they're scared 00:12:10.929 --> 00:12:13.070 to say anything. OK, yeah. You know, they're 00:12:13.070 --> 00:12:15.590 worried that President Trump will, you know, 00:12:15.789 --> 00:12:18.230 back a primary challenger against them. Sure. 00:12:18.590 --> 00:12:21.659 But then you've got some House Republicans. like 00:12:21.659 --> 00:12:24.340 Representative Brandon Gill, he's actually introduced 00:12:24.340 --> 00:12:28.659 a resolution to impeach Judge Boasberg. Wow. 00:12:29.039 --> 00:12:32.320 So they're trying to be, you know, really closely 00:12:32.320 --> 00:12:35.639 aligned with President Trump. But then, you know, 00:12:35.700 --> 00:12:37.559 on the other side, you've got Republican senators 00:12:37.559 --> 00:12:40.220 like John Kennedy and John Cornyn. They've said 00:12:40.220 --> 00:12:42.539 they're not on board with impeaching judges just 00:12:42.539 --> 00:12:44.539 because they disagree with their rulings. Right. 00:12:44.720 --> 00:12:47.899 Kennedy even called it idiotic. OK, so, you know, 00:12:47.940 --> 00:12:50.120 it sounds like there's this real struggle within 00:12:50.120 --> 00:12:52.960 the Republican Party. You know, loyalty to Trump 00:12:52.960 --> 00:12:55.379 versus, you know, defending the rule of law. 00:12:56.059 --> 00:12:59.100 It's it's tough. And, you know, meanwhile. President 00:12:59.100 --> 00:13:01.840 Trump is really focused on reshaping the judiciary 00:13:01.840 --> 00:13:04.340 for the long term. What's his strategy there? 00:13:04.779 --> 00:13:06.740 So it seems like he's learned from his first 00:13:06.740 --> 00:13:11.059 term. He's realizing that personal loyalty trumps 00:13:11.059 --> 00:13:14.919 no pun intended. It trumps legal philosophy when 00:13:14.919 --> 00:13:17.580 it comes to appointing judges. So he's trying 00:13:17.580 --> 00:13:19.440 to fill the courts with people who are going 00:13:19.440 --> 00:13:22.860 to back him up no matter what. OK. Mike Davis, 00:13:23.039 --> 00:13:24.860 he was counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee, 00:13:25.299 --> 00:13:28.480 he said they're looking for even more bold and 00:13:28.480 --> 00:13:31.559 fearless judges. What does that even mean? You 00:13:31.559 --> 00:13:33.340 know, judges who are willing to push the limits, 00:13:33.600 --> 00:13:36.299 even break the rules. Wow. To get what the president 00:13:36.299 --> 00:13:39.659 wants. Okay. And we're already hearing some names 00:13:39.659 --> 00:13:43.159 being floated as potential Supreme Court nominees. 00:13:43.279 --> 00:13:45.960 What can you tell us about those? Aileen Cannon, 00:13:46.340 --> 00:13:49.139 Catherine Kimball. Mizzell, they're both federal 00:13:49.139 --> 00:13:51.580 judges in Florida. Trump appointed them. Mizzell's 00:13:51.580 --> 00:13:53.320 the one who struck down the federal mask mandate 00:13:53.320 --> 00:13:56.700 for travel during COVID. Right. And Senator Blumenthal, 00:13:56.840 --> 00:13:58.759 he's a Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee. 00:13:59.460 --> 00:14:01.620 He thinks Trump's future nominees are going to 00:14:01.620 --> 00:14:04.940 be even more ideologically extreme. OK. And he 00:14:04.940 --> 00:14:06.639 thinks they might even try to change the Senate 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:09.019 rules. OK. To make it easier to confirm them. 00:14:09.019 --> 00:14:12.240 Yeah. So, you know. We gotta watch this closely. 00:14:12.559 --> 00:14:14.539 This could really change the judiciary for a 00:14:14.539 --> 00:14:16.899 long time. It sounds like it. And it's not just 00:14:16.899 --> 00:14:19.320 about the judges themselves, right? I mean, there 00:14:19.320 --> 00:14:22.240 are reports about the administration being really 00:14:22.240 --> 00:14:24.740 hostile towards lawyers and law firms that have 00:14:24.740 --> 00:14:26.340 gone up against them in the past. That's right. 00:14:26.600 --> 00:14:29.220 So what's going on with that? There's a lot of 00:14:29.220 --> 00:14:32.460 fear in the legal profession right now. OK. Especially 00:14:32.460 --> 00:14:35.200 for firms that have opposed Trump. OK. People 00:14:35.200 --> 00:14:38.620 are worried about retaliation. Sure. The word 00:14:38.620 --> 00:14:41.539 is that the administration is very punitive. 00:14:41.679 --> 00:14:45.059 OK. They like to get revenge. And there was even 00:14:45.059 --> 00:14:48.299 an anonymous letter from young associates at 00:14:48.299 --> 00:14:52.279 some big law firms. And they condemned some of 00:14:52.279 --> 00:14:54.600 the administration's actions. So there's a lot 00:14:54.600 --> 00:14:57.139 of unease in the legal community right now. Yeah. 00:14:57.139 --> 00:14:58.860 And it sounds like it could really discourage 00:14:58.860 --> 00:15:01.340 lawyers from taking on cases or challenging the 00:15:01.340 --> 00:15:04.019 administration, which is not good for anybody. 00:15:04.799 --> 00:15:06.500 All right. So let's switch to another sensitive 00:15:06.500 --> 00:15:09.950 topic, social security. This report suggests 00:15:09.950 --> 00:15:12.970 that there are some changes happening that could 00:15:12.970 --> 00:15:15.590 really hurt people's benefits And you know, it 00:15:15.590 --> 00:15:19.029 sounds like this is being driven by you know 00:15:19.029 --> 00:15:21.009 people in the administration Maybe even Elon 00:15:21.009 --> 00:15:23.710 Musk, you know wanting to cut Social Security 00:15:23.710 --> 00:15:26.570 Yeah, so what's going on there? So it's not like 00:15:26.570 --> 00:15:28.090 they're trying to get rid of Social Security 00:15:28.090 --> 00:15:30.750 all at once, right? It's more like death by a 00:15:30.750 --> 00:15:32.490 thousand cuts. Okay, you know, they're making 00:15:32.490 --> 00:15:34.190 all these little changes that make it harder 00:15:34.190 --> 00:15:37.679 to get benefits right and the thing is This isn't 00:15:37.679 --> 00:15:41.179 just theoretical, it's already happening. We've 00:15:41.179 --> 00:15:43.039 already seen a bunch of social security offices 00:15:43.039 --> 00:15:46.379 closed across the country. Places like Arkansas, 00:15:46.879 --> 00:15:51.299 Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, 00:15:51.440 --> 00:15:56.120 Texas. They've been hit especially hard. And 00:15:56.120 --> 00:15:57.919 that means that people have to travel farther. 00:15:58.110 --> 00:16:00.889 They have to wait longer. It's just a pain. And 00:16:00.889 --> 00:16:02.970 that's going to be even harder now because they're 00:16:02.970 --> 00:16:05.070 also changing how people can interact with the 00:16:05.070 --> 00:16:06.830 SSA, right? That's right. They're getting rid 00:16:06.830 --> 00:16:09.269 of the phone lines for all these basic tasks 00:16:09.269 --> 00:16:12.549 like signing up for benefits, changing your address, 00:16:12.850 --> 00:16:14.549 updating your marital status, all that stuff. 00:16:15.049 --> 00:16:18.570 They want you to do it online now. So if you 00:16:18.570 --> 00:16:21.230 don't have a computer or you're not good with 00:16:21.230 --> 00:16:23.129 computers. Or you don't have internet access. 00:16:23.450 --> 00:16:26.129 Right. Your only option is to go to an office 00:16:26.129 --> 00:16:28.690 and they've just closed a bunch of offices exactly 00:16:28.690 --> 00:16:32.230 And it's gonna hit the elderly people with disabilities 00:16:32.230 --> 00:16:34.889 people in rural areas Those folks are gonna have 00:16:34.889 --> 00:16:37.789 a really tough time right Senator Gillibrand. 00:16:37.830 --> 00:16:40.309 She called this a full -blown attack on Social 00:16:40.309 --> 00:16:42.909 Security Yeah, and it does seem like they're 00:16:42.909 --> 00:16:44.909 making it as hard as possible for people to get 00:16:44.909 --> 00:16:47.350 the benefits that they're entitled to Yeah, so 00:16:47.350 --> 00:16:50.080 let's talk about campaign finances, okay? because 00:16:50.080 --> 00:16:53.019 we're hearing that President Trump has built 00:16:53.019 --> 00:16:56.980 up this huge war test of campaign funds. What's 00:16:56.980 --> 00:16:59.100 he planning to do with all that money, especially 00:16:59.100 --> 00:17:01.779 since he can't run for president again? That's 00:17:01.779 --> 00:17:03.840 the big question. Yeah. A lot of Republicans 00:17:03.840 --> 00:17:05.619 in Congress are hoping that he's going to use 00:17:05.619 --> 00:17:07.640 it to help them keep control of the House and 00:17:07.640 --> 00:17:11.420 the Senate in 2026. OK. So he could give a lot 00:17:11.420 --> 00:17:14.049 of it to super PACs. Right. You know, those are 00:17:14.049 --> 00:17:16.430 those groups that can spend unlimited amounts 00:17:16.430 --> 00:17:20.029 of money to support or oppose candidates. Right. 00:17:21.309 --> 00:17:24.349 But the thing is, those super PACs, they might 00:17:24.349 --> 00:17:27.490 not always agree with Trump on who to support. 00:17:27.650 --> 00:17:29.329 Right. Because they're looking at, you know, 00:17:29.349 --> 00:17:31.950 who can win the general election, not just who 00:17:31.950 --> 00:17:34.210 Trump likes. Exactly. And then, you know, Trump 00:17:34.210 --> 00:17:36.910 might want to keep some of that money for himself 00:17:36.910 --> 00:17:40.150 to support his allies, maybe even attack his 00:17:40.150 --> 00:17:42.819 enemies. Yeah. even if they're Republicans. You 00:17:42.819 --> 00:17:44.960 know, he still hasn't forgiven Thomas Massie. 00:17:45.259 --> 00:17:48.059 Right. He holds a grudge. So, yeah, having all 00:17:48.059 --> 00:17:50.500 that money gives him a lot of power. People are 00:17:50.500 --> 00:17:52.740 going to think twice before they cross him. We 00:17:52.740 --> 00:17:55.819 also saw that JD Vance is now the RNC finance 00:17:55.819 --> 00:17:58.619 chair. What does that mean for this whole financial 00:17:58.619 --> 00:18:01.440 picture? So he's basically in charge of the RNC's 00:18:01.440 --> 00:18:03.799 money. OK. So if you're a member of Congress, 00:18:03.900 --> 00:18:06.579 you're running for reelection and you need money. 00:18:06.880 --> 00:18:08.970 Right. you're going to want to stay on Vance's 00:18:08.970 --> 00:18:11.930 good side. Right. And that means, you know, staying 00:18:11.930 --> 00:18:14.849 on Trump's good side. Yeah, exactly. So let's 00:18:14.849 --> 00:18:17.230 talk about Kari Lig and the Voice of America. 00:18:17.250 --> 00:18:19.529 OK. Because it seems like her plans to take over 00:18:19.529 --> 00:18:22.230 there have hit a snag. Yeah. So what's the latest? 00:18:22.509 --> 00:18:24.710 So she was supposed to be the new director, but 00:18:24.710 --> 00:18:27.529 then Trump basically shut down the whole U .S. 00:18:27.650 --> 00:18:30.309 agency for global media, which runs the VOA. 00:18:30.309 --> 00:18:33.900 Wow. A thousand journalists and staff. all on 00:18:33.900 --> 00:18:35.940 administrative leave. Wow. They're not putting 00:18:35.940 --> 00:18:38.619 out any news anymore. And this is a big deal, 00:18:38.920 --> 00:18:42.220 you know? The VOA, they provide news and information 00:18:42.220 --> 00:18:44.220 to people in countries where there isn't a free 00:18:44.220 --> 00:18:46.779 press. Right, like Russia and China. Right, exactly. 00:18:46.920 --> 00:18:50.460 So this is a big blow to those efforts. So where 00:18:50.460 --> 00:18:53.500 does Kari Lake fit into all this? Well, she hasn't 00:18:53.500 --> 00:18:56.119 been officially appointed as director, but she 00:18:56.119 --> 00:18:59.180 is serving as an advisor. And there's this interesting 00:18:59.180 --> 00:19:03.690 connection to Project 2025. OK, yeah. big conservative 00:19:03.690 --> 00:19:05.829 agenda for the future right and one of their 00:19:05.829 --> 00:19:09.750 goals was to either put the voa under the president's 00:19:09.750 --> 00:19:13.089 control okay or just shut it down altogether 00:19:13.089 --> 00:19:15.630 and the lawyer who's working with lake now he 00:19:15.630 --> 00:19:18.630 actually wrote about that wow so it's interesting 00:19:18.630 --> 00:19:23.269 that she's now involved with this apparent dismantling 00:19:23.269 --> 00:19:26.210 of the VOA. It is interesting, yeah. Okay, so 00:19:26.210 --> 00:19:28.349 we've talked about all this activity, you know, 00:19:28.490 --> 00:19:30.390 President Trump making moves, but we're also 00:19:30.390 --> 00:19:32.289 seeing reports that his approval ratings are 00:19:32.289 --> 00:19:35.630 going down. What's up with that? So, Kristen 00:19:35.630 --> 00:19:38.190 Salta Sanderson, she's a Republican pollster, 00:19:38.789 --> 00:19:41.789 she's been looking at this, and she thinks that 00:19:41.789 --> 00:19:44.930 maybe Trump is misreading his mandate. What does 00:19:44.930 --> 00:19:48.259 that mean? So her analysis suggests that when 00:19:48.259 --> 00:19:50.559 people voted for Trump, their main concern was 00:19:50.559 --> 00:19:53.240 the economy. Sure. Inflation, cost of living, 00:19:53.299 --> 00:19:54.839 all that stuff. They wanted that to get better. 00:19:54.960 --> 00:19:57.880 OK. But she thinks Trump might be interpreting 00:19:57.880 --> 00:20:01.000 that as a mandate for a broader disruption. OK. 00:20:01.200 --> 00:20:03.339 Like, he thinks people want him to shake things 00:20:03.339 --> 00:20:06.779 up, to be bold, even if it's unpopular. And she 00:20:06.779 --> 00:20:09.000 thinks he's wrong. OK. She's worried that he's 00:20:09.000 --> 00:20:11.259 going to focus too much on these big controversial 00:20:11.259 --> 00:20:13.849 things like tariffs. Right. And he's going to 00:20:13.849 --> 00:20:16.190 neglect the economy. And she thinks that's going 00:20:16.190 --> 00:20:18.549 to hurt him in the long run. Yeah. I mean, that's 00:20:18.549 --> 00:20:20.630 a classic mistake that politicians make. They 00:20:20.630 --> 00:20:22.309 think they have a mandate for something when 00:20:22.309 --> 00:20:24.910 they really don't. Right. So we'll see how that 00:20:24.910 --> 00:20:28.230 plays out. Speaking of the future, we're also 00:20:28.230 --> 00:20:30.609 hearing that J .D. Vance is being talked about 00:20:30.609 --> 00:20:33.150 as a potential front runner for the twenty twenty 00:20:33.150 --> 00:20:35.849 eight Republican nomination. Yeah, he's really 00:20:35.849 --> 00:20:38.190 risen fast. Yeah, that's fast. And it's because 00:20:38.190 --> 00:20:41.609 he's so loyal to Trump. He's always been in Trump's 00:20:41.609 --> 00:20:45.549 corner. And he really shares Trump's worldview. 00:20:45.769 --> 00:20:49.309 He even won the CPAC straw poll for the next 00:20:49.309 --> 00:20:54.170 Republican nominee. And Donald Trump Jr. is apparently 00:20:54.170 --> 00:20:58.630 a big fan. But the question is... Can he appeal 00:20:58.630 --> 00:21:00.849 to more than just the Trump base? Right, because 00:21:00.849 --> 00:21:02.690 that's not gonna be enough to win a general election. 00:21:02.789 --> 00:21:04.490 Right, exactly. And he's a bit more intellectual. 00:21:04.650 --> 00:21:06.630 Okay. You know, more academic than Trump. Okay. 00:21:06.750 --> 00:21:09.109 So it's not clear if he can connect with those 00:21:09.109 --> 00:21:11.529 blue -collar voters who were so important to 00:21:11.529 --> 00:21:14.569 Trump's victory. Right. Okay, so a couple more 00:21:14.569 --> 00:21:17.250 things to cover. Canada is apparently thinking 00:21:17.250 --> 00:21:20.410 about not buying those F -35 fighter jets. Yeah. 00:21:20.470 --> 00:21:24.019 What's going on there? Well... They're not too 00:21:24.019 --> 00:21:27.160 happy about how close the US is getting to certain 00:21:27.160 --> 00:21:29.299 other countries. OK. So they're thinking about 00:21:29.299 --> 00:21:32.460 buying European jets instead. OK. Which would 00:21:32.460 --> 00:21:35.269 be a... pretty big snub to the U .S. Yeah, it 00:21:35.269 --> 00:21:37.329 would. And, you know, one last thing, looking 00:21:37.329 --> 00:21:39.630 ahead to the twenty twenty six midterms. Yeah. 00:21:39.950 --> 00:21:42.430 Both the Democrats and Republicans have put out 00:21:42.430 --> 00:21:44.809 their lists of House races that they're targeting. 00:21:44.829 --> 00:21:47.349 And there's a lot of overlap. Yeah. They're both 00:21:47.349 --> 00:21:50.309 focused on those districts that flipped in the 00:21:50.309 --> 00:21:53.049 last election. Right. So Democrats who won in 00:21:53.049 --> 00:21:55.650 districts that Trump carried and Republicans 00:21:55.650 --> 00:21:58.029 who won in districts that Harris carried. Yeah. 00:21:58.230 --> 00:21:59.769 So those incumbents are going to have to fight 00:21:59.769 --> 00:22:01.690 really hard to keep their seats. Oh, yeah. Those 00:22:01.690 --> 00:22:04.829 races are going to be Brutal. So as we wrap this 00:22:04.829 --> 00:22:07.750 up, we're looking at a really complicated picture, 00:22:08.130 --> 00:22:11.670 right? The economy is kind of a mixed bag, and 00:22:11.670 --> 00:22:14.170 consumers aren't feeling great about the future. 00:22:14.410 --> 00:22:16.589 And then you have all this political stuff going 00:22:16.589 --> 00:22:19.430 on, challenges to the courts, potential changes 00:22:19.430 --> 00:22:22.910 to social security, and a lot of uncertainty 00:22:22.910 --> 00:22:24.650 about what's going to happen in the next election. 00:22:25.329 --> 00:22:28.539 Right. Yeah, it's a lot to process. I think the 00:22:28.539 --> 00:22:30.759 key takeaway here is that there's a real disconnect 00:22:30.759 --> 00:22:33.460 between what the economic data is saying, which 00:22:33.460 --> 00:22:35.460 is maybe things are getting a little bit better, 00:22:35.859 --> 00:22:38.660 and how people are actually feeling, which is 00:22:38.660 --> 00:22:41.039 not good. And then on top of that, you've got 00:22:41.039 --> 00:22:44.339 this conflict between the president and the rest 00:22:44.339 --> 00:22:47.279 of the government, the courts, Congress. It's 00:22:47.279 --> 00:22:50.660 a mess. It is a mess. So with all that said, 00:22:50.960 --> 00:22:52.779 what do you think is the most important thing? 00:22:53.049 --> 00:22:55.269 for people to keep an eye on in the coming months? 00:22:55.470 --> 00:22:57.910 And what do you think all of this means for the 00:22:57.910 --> 00:23:00.430 future of the country? That's a great question. 00:23:01.569 --> 00:23:03.769 And it's a really tough one to answer. But I 00:23:03.769 --> 00:23:07.130 think the thing to watch is whether this disconnect 00:23:07.130 --> 00:23:09.170 between the data and how people are feeling, 00:23:09.569 --> 00:23:11.890 whether that starts to translate into real economic 00:23:11.890 --> 00:23:14.970 problems. If people keep cutting back on spending, 00:23:15.269 --> 00:23:17.980 that could lead to a recession. And then On the 00:23:17.980 --> 00:23:20.200 political side, I think the big question is, 00:23:20.279 --> 00:23:22.079 you know, can our institutions hold up under 00:23:22.079 --> 00:23:24.380 this pressure? Right. Trump's really testing 00:23:24.380 --> 00:23:26.859 the limits of presidential power, and it's not 00:23:26.859 --> 00:23:29.119 clear how this is all going to shake out. Yeah, 00:23:29.299 --> 00:23:30.779 it really makes you wonder what's going to happen 00:23:30.779 --> 00:23:32.799 next and how all of this is going to affect us 00:23:32.799 --> 00:23:32.980 all.