Okay, so you've sent in a really fascinating
set of articles and reports for us to dive into.
Yeah, this is a really interesting collection.
And what we're going to do today is try to give
you a clear picture of what's going on right
now as of March 19th, 2025. Kind of a personalized
briefing. Exactly, a personalized briefing. And
we're going to really try to dig into the So
what does it all mean for you? Yeah, exactly.
What does it all mean? So we've got a lot to
cover. And your sources really do cover a wide
range of topics. Yeah, there's a lot here. We're
going to talk about some. Pretty big changes
in trade policy. Huge changes. Some interesting,
shall we say, moves in international diplomacy?
Yeah, unconventional. What's happening with abortion
access? Because it's a really, really significant
development. Really is. And what's going on inside
the Democratic Party? And then, of course, what
does all of this polling data mean? Right, exactly.
How do we make sense of it all? OK, so let's
jump right in. And I think a good place to start
is with trade, because it seems like the Trump
administration under Treasury Secretary Scott
Besant is making some really aggressive moves.
Yeah. I mean, the thing that really jumps out
at me is just the speed and the scope of what
they're trying to do. It's pretty remarkable.
It is. I mean, one of your sources here, a senior
macro analyst at Hedge Eye named Josh Steiner,
basically said that their goal is to reverse
like decades. of trade policies that they see
as having disadvantaged the middle class and
benefited corporations. Right. So this this idea
that trade policy for the last 40 or 50 years
hasn't served the average American. Yeah. That
it's been all about, you know, kind of this globalized
corporate world. And Steiner doesn't mince words
either. No, he doesn't. He says trying to undo
that much policy in just four to six months is
not going to be pain free. No, it's going to
be a real jolt to the system. Yeah. So it sounds
like we're we're expecting maybe a bit of a rough
ride. Well, yeah, Steiner's prediction is that
we'll probably see growth, you know, significantly
subdued in the second quarter as a result of
these reciprocal tariffs that are scheduled to
take effect on April 2nd. Right, right. So there's
going to be this sort of like, you know, kind
of a dip. Yeah, a deliberate cooling of the economy.
Right, exactly. A deliberate cooling of the economy.
But as you pointed out, There's maybe a bigger
strategic play here, especially when you consider
the size of the national debt. Well, that's right.
I mean, we can't ignore the fact that we have
this nearly $8 trillion in debt that needs to
be rolled over in the first nine months of this
year. Right. A huge amount. Yeah. And so the
timing of these tariffs, if you think about it,
this slowdown in growth, it could actually give
them a lever to push interest rates down. Oh,
interesting. So make that debt. Less expensive.
Exactly. So it's like this calculated risk, you
know, inflict a little bit of pain now to potentially
alleviate this massive debt burden. Wow. And,
you know, Steiner actually crunched the numbers
and he suggests that even just a one percentage
point reduction in interest on, you know, let's
say seven and a half trillion dollars of that
debt could save seventy five billion dollars
annually. That's a lot of money. That's a lot
of money. That's a significant step. towards
really addressing the deficit. It could really
make it down. So it's a high stakes gamble. It
is. But there's a potential reward. Oh, absolutely.
And politically, it seems pretty clear that the
administration is, you know, if there is a downturn
early on, they're going to blame it on the previous
administration. Oh, yeah. They're already setting
the stage. Makes sense. Kind of a classic playbook.
OK, let's shift gears now and talk about what's
happening on the international stage, because
things are getting well. interesting, let's say,
with both adversaries and allies. Yeah, it's
a very mixed bag. And I think a good place to
start would be with Ukraine. OK. Because there
seems to be a real disconnect between what the
administration is saying and what's actually
happening. Yeah, a lot of contradictions. So
Trump, you know, after speaking with Putin, announces
this immediate ceasefire on energy and infrastructure.
Right. Big pronouncements. Huge pronouncements.
Yeah. And predicts a swift end to the war. like
the art of the deal applied to international
relations. Right, exactly. He even went on social
media talking about a complete ceasefire, an
end to this very horrible war. Very optimistic.
Very optimistic indeed. But then you look at
what your sources are saying and it's a very
different story on the ground. Right. It's like
in a completely different reality. So Putin reportedly
rejected Ukraine's proposed ceasefire terms.
Oh, wow. And you only agree to this very limited
ceasefire. So not at all what Trump was saying.
Not even close. And then what's really alarming
is that almost immediately after this so -called
agreement, there were reports of Russian forces
bombing a Ukrainian power plant, a hospital.
So much for that ceasefire. Right. And it really
makes you question, you know, what exactly does
energy and infrastructure mean in this context?
Right. It seems like they're playing with words.
Yeah. And it certainly doesn't sound like a genuine
DS graduation. No, not at all. It makes you wonder
about, you know, how much credibility these diplomatic
efforts really have. That's the big takeaway
here, right? Is that there's this real disconnect
between the rhetoric and the reality. Yeah. And
it raises some serious questions about, you know,
what kind of leverage does the administration
actually have? What's really going on behind
the scenes? Like, how much are they willing to
tolerate? Yeah. I mean, one of your sources,
the National Review, they basically that Putin
is treating Trump with open contempt. And they
question, you know, how much humiliation the
administration is willing to endure. Right. And
then you have foreign policy, which is even more
pessimistic. Oh, really? Yeah, they're suggesting
that it might be time for Ukraine to just accept
what they call an ugly piece. Wow, an ugly piece.
That's a... That's a pretty bleak assessment.
Yeah, it's not a good situation. And you know,
it's important to remember that we're now past
that 60 -day mark that Trump himself set for
ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Oh, right.
And neither conflict seems anywhere near a resolution.
No, it seems like things are actually escalating.
Right. So that's a tough metric early in the
administration. Definitely not going according
to plan. OK, so we've talked about adversaries.
What about allies? Because it seems like things
aren't going so well there either. No, not really.
Yeah. Your sources are highlighting this growing
wave of anti -American sentiment in countries
that are currently at peace. Yeah, it's pretty
remarkable. And it's not just like a few isolated
incidents. It seems to be pretty widespread.
It really does. And it's especially pronounced
in Canada, which we've seen some tension with
before. But now it's spreading to Europe. Right,
and the example of Denmark really stands out.
Yeah, it's really quite something. They have
these boycotts of American -made products that
are happening all over the country. It's like
a mass movement. It is, and what's really interesting
is how organized it is. Yeah, they're not messing
around. I mean, there's this Danish Facebook
page called Boykot Verre Fra USA, which has like
80 ,000 members. Wow, that's a lot of people.
And then you have the selling group, which is
a major supermarket chain. They're actually labeling
non -American goods with a red star so people
know what to buy. So they're really going out
of their way to avoid American products. They
are. And one of your sources, Jens Olsen, who's
a longtime observer of Danish society, he said
that he's never seen Danes this upset. Wow, so
this is like a really deep -seated anger. It
seems to be, and it's not just a general dissatisfaction
either. I mean, they're targeting specific products.
Like what kind of products? Coke Hines, Jack
Daniels, even Teslas. Wow. So really hitting
some iconic American brands. Yeah. But what's
interesting is that data -driven companies like
Facebook and Netflix seem to be exempt. Oh, so
maybe it's more about physical goods, like things
that are made in America. Right. Tangible representations
of American industry. And the potential economic
impact of all of this is pretty significant,
especially when you consider tourism. Right.
Your sources suggest that there could be a 5
% drop in tourism this year. Which would be a
$64 billion hit. Yeah, but some estimates go
even higher, potentially exceeding $200 billion.
Oh, wow. That's a massive number. It is. And,
you know, it's important to remember that this
is different from tariffs. Right, because tariffs
can be reversed. Exactly. But this kind of negative
sentiment, this damage to relationships, that
takes much longer to repair. Yeah, it's like,
you know, once you lose trust, it's hard to get
it back. Right. And this could really have long
lasting repercussions for America's standing
in the world and its economic ties with key allies.
Alright, let's turn our attention now to a different
kind of conflict that's happening here in the
U .S., and that's the escalating battle over
abortion rights. Yeah, this is a really concerning
development. It is, and the situation in Texas
is particularly alarming, it seems like. Texas
AG Ken Paxton is taking an incredibly aggressive
stance. I mean, what's really disturbing is this
apparent focus on criminalizing pregnancy itself.
Yeah, and they're targeting some of the most
vulnerable communities. Absolutely. The arrest
of this midwife, Maria Margarita Rojas, is a
perfect example. Tell me more about that. So
she's a licensed obstetrician from Peru, and
she runs these low -cost clinics for poor Spanish
-speaking women of color in Houston. Oh, wow.
So she's providing essential care to a community
that really needs it. Exactly. And they arrested
her initially for practicing without a license,
but then the charges escalated to attempting
an abortion. Right. And they set her bond at
$1 .2 million? Yeah, it's just an outrageous
amount. That's crazy. It seems completely disproportionate
to the alleged crime. It does. And it really
makes you question what's really motivating this
action. Yeah, it just feels very politically
motivated. Well, there was this alleged anonymous
tip involving Mesopristol. Right. But Mesopristol
has multiple legitimate medical uses. Exactly.
So it's not like it's just used for abortions.
Right. And the timing of this arrest is also
interesting. How so? Well, it happened right
around on the same time that Texas passed this
bill targeting websites with abortion information.
Oh, wow. And Paxson himself is reportedly considering
a primary challenge to Senator John Cornyn. Oh,
so maybe he's trying to make a name for himself
by being tough on abortion. Right. It's all about
creating a very specific narrative. Yeah. And
the potential impact of all this on health care
access for women in Texas is pretty terrifying.
Absolutely. I mean, it's already incredibly difficult
to access abortion care in Texas. Right. And
now with this kind of crackdown, it's going to
become even harder. Right. It's going to create
this chilling effect where doctors are afraid
to provide any kind of care to pregnant women.
Exactly. And it's likely to lead to even more
OB -GYNs leaving the state. Right. We're already
seeing that happening. It's a real crisis. And
one of your sources, Mark Herron from the Center
for Reproductive Rights, he had a really powerful
quote. What did he say? He said that Texas does
not care about women's lives. Wow. And that they're
solely focused on preventing women from accessing
essential care. That's a pretty damning statement.
It is and it's a stark reminder of Trump's broken
promise to protect access to abortifacient drugs.
Right. He said he would do that during the campaign.
He did. And he's been completely silent on Paxton's
actions. So much for that promise. Yeah. It's
a real betrayal. And while abortion wasn't the
only issue in the last election, it did have
a significant impact on turnout in several post
-Obs elections. Right. It really galvanized voters.
Absolutely. And this situation in Texas is likely
to do the same thing. Yeah, it's going to provide
a lot of political momentum for the Democrats
heading into 2026. Oh, absolutely. OK, let's
move on now and talk about what's happening inside
the Democratic Party, because it seems like Chuck
Schumer is having a bit of a rough time. Yeah,
he's facing some serious challenges. What's the
underlying story there? The immediate trigger
for this current backlash seems to be his vote.
to invoke cloture on the continuing resolution.
Remind me what cloture is again. It's a Senate
procedure that limits debate and forces a vote.
Oh, right. And a lot of Democrats saw this as
a miscalculation on Schumer's part. How so? They
felt like he didn't take a strong enough stance
against Republican priorities. So he kind of
caved. In a way, yeah. And the expectation was
that House Speaker Johnson wouldn't be able to
unify his caucus. But he did. He did. And so
Schumer was left in this awkward position where
he didn't have a clear counter strategy. And
some of your sources are even describing his
handling of the situation as amateurish. Yeah,
that's pretty harsh criticism for someone with
his level of experience. It is. And it's not
just legislative challenges either. His new book
on anti -Semitism has been getting a lot of negative
attention. Oh, really? Yeah, including those
reviews that mimicked a fragile book. Ouch. Yeah,
and then he had to postpone his book tour due
to security concerns. So Ann sounds like there's
some real animosity out there. Yeah, it seems
like it. And his media appearances haven't been
going so well either. What happened? He got tough
questioning on The View. Oh, wow. And then Gale
King on CBS Mornings even brought up the possibility
of calls for his removal. So it sounds like he's
really under pressure. He is. And his attempts
to mend fences with progressive groups don't
seem to have gone very well either. How so? One
of your sources described his listening tour
as tense and unproductive. Oh, wow. So not a
lot of love there. No. And then you have these
criticisms from within his own caucus, including
some pretty pointed remarks from Nancy Pelosi.
Oh, really? Yeah. And some pretty harsh private
assessments from House Democrats. So it sounds
like there's a real fracturing of support. There
is. And then you have this possibility of a primary
challenge from Alexandria Ocasio -Cortez in 2028.
Wow. That would be a big shakeup. It would. And
while it seems unlikely that he'll be ousted
immediately, your sources suggest that there
is a growing possibility of a change in leadership
in the next Congress. Yeah. I mean, he's facing
a lot of the same headwinds that McConnell faced.
Right. The sense that he represents a different
era in political leadership. Exactly. And even
if he doesn't get ousted, this erosion of confidence
within his own caucus can really diminish his
effectiveness as a leader. Right. It makes it
hard to get things done. And it can really impact
the party's overall strategy. Okay, let's wrap
up by talking about the recent polling data because
it's painting a pretty interesting picture of
where things stand right now. Yeah, it's a mixed
bag for sure. So the Democrats are seeing some
record low positive ratings, 27 percent in the
NBC News poll and 29 percent in the CNN's SRS
poll. Yeah, those are some tough numbers. They
are. But it's important to understand what these
numbers really mean. Right. We have to dig deeper.
And that's where the analysis from Democratic
pollster David Shore becomes really relevant.
OK. Because his polling suggests that higher
voter turnout in 2024 might have actually contributed
to Kamala Harris's loss. Now, that's counterintuitive.
It is, right? You would think that higher turnout
would benefit the Democrats. Yeah, that's the
conventional wisdom. But Schor's interpretation
is that there was a segment of the electorate
that was dissatisfied with both the Democratic
and Republican options, and they just stayed
home. So they weren't inspired by either candidate.
Right, exactly. And it's not just about who didn't
vote the polls. Also indicated that a large percentage
of Democrats themselves are upset with their
own party. Oh, really? How large are we talking?
Around 75 % in both the NBC and CNN surveys.
Wow. So a significant chunk of their own base
is unhappy. Yeah. And they're unhappy with the
party's perceived lack of action. So they want
to see the Democrats doing more. Exactly. They
want to see them fighting harder for their priorities.
So it's a challenge, but it's also an opportunity.
How so? Well, it means that there's a potential
pathway to regaining their support. Right. So
if they can show that they're listening to their
base and they're taking action, they could win
back those voters. Exactly. And one of your sources
drew this really interesting parallel to FDR's
response to early criticism of the New Deal.
Oh, tell me more about that. So the idea is that
this period before the next major election cycle
is the best time for the Democrats to take strong
action. So now's the time to make bold moves.
Right, to show that they're serious about addressing
the concerns of their base. Because of the old
message of things are great. clearly isn't working.
No, it's not resonating with a lot of voters.
And looking ahead to 2028, your sources raise
this interesting point about the potential for
a Democratic nominee to really connect with rural
America. That's a key demographic that the Democrats
have been struggling with. They have and they
draw another parallel here to FDR success in
1932, where he really appealed to rural voters
during an economic crisis. Right. And he was
running against an unpopular incumbent. Exactly.
There are some interesting similarities there.
So even though the current polling numbers might
look bad on the surface, there's a more complex
narrative at play here. Yeah, there's a lot of
dissatisfaction across the political spectrum.
Right. And there's a potential path forward for
the Democrats if they can recalibrate their message
and their strategy. They need to show that they're
listening and that they're taking action. And
they need to connect with voters in a way that
feels authentic and meaningful. Exactly. Well,
this has been a really fascinating deep dive.
It has. We've come to a lot of ground today.
A lot of ground. We've talked about the high
stakes nature of the new trade policy, the challenges
and criticisms surrounding the administration's
diplomatic efforts. Yeah, those are some serious
issues. The escalation in the battle over abortion
rights in Texas. A very concerning development.
The divisions within the Democratic Party. Yeah,
those are some real internal struggles. And the
insights offered by the recent polling data.
It's all connected. It is. And as you consider
all of these different forces at play, I think
a really important question to ask yourself is
what single factor do you think is going to have
the biggest impact on the political and economic
landscape in the months ahead? Yeah. What's the
thing that's going to tip the scales? And what
connection might we be missing that ties all
of these seemingly disparate events together?
What's the underlying thread? Exactly. That's
a really great question to think about. It is.
Thank you for sharing these incredible sources
with us and for joining us on this due dive.
Yeah, this has been a great conversation. It
has. And we encourage you to keep exploring these
critical issues as they continue to unfold. Because
things are changing fast. They are. And it's
important to stay informed. Absolutely. Okay,
that's it for this episode of The Deep Dive.
Until next time. See ya. Bye. Bye.