WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.040 Okay, so you've sent in a really fascinating 00:00:04.040 --> 00:00:06.440 set of articles and reports for us to dive into. 00:00:06.759 --> 00:00:09.560 Yeah, this is a really interesting collection. 00:00:09.779 --> 00:00:11.480 And what we're going to do today is try to give 00:00:11.480 --> 00:00:13.660 you a clear picture of what's going on right 00:00:13.660 --> 00:00:18.219 now as of March 19th, 2025. Kind of a personalized 00:00:18.219 --> 00:00:21.079 briefing. Exactly, a personalized briefing. And 00:00:21.079 --> 00:00:24.300 we're going to really try to dig into the So 00:00:24.300 --> 00:00:26.079 what does it all mean for you? Yeah, exactly. 00:00:26.179 --> 00:00:29.059 What does it all mean? So we've got a lot to 00:00:29.059 --> 00:00:31.280 cover. And your sources really do cover a wide 00:00:31.280 --> 00:00:34.079 range of topics. Yeah, there's a lot here. We're 00:00:34.079 --> 00:00:35.820 going to talk about some. Pretty big changes 00:00:35.820 --> 00:00:39.899 in trade policy. Huge changes. Some interesting, 00:00:39.899 --> 00:00:42.460 shall we say, moves in international diplomacy? 00:00:42.700 --> 00:00:45.079 Yeah, unconventional. What's happening with abortion 00:00:45.079 --> 00:00:47.579 access? Because it's a really, really significant 00:00:47.579 --> 00:00:50.479 development. Really is. And what's going on inside 00:00:50.479 --> 00:00:52.179 the Democratic Party? And then, of course, what 00:00:52.179 --> 00:00:54.500 does all of this polling data mean? Right, exactly. 00:00:54.810 --> 00:00:57.210 How do we make sense of it all? OK, so let's 00:00:57.210 --> 00:00:59.450 jump right in. And I think a good place to start 00:00:59.450 --> 00:01:02.149 is with trade, because it seems like the Trump 00:01:02.149 --> 00:01:04.969 administration under Treasury Secretary Scott 00:01:04.969 --> 00:01:07.810 Besant is making some really aggressive moves. 00:01:07.969 --> 00:01:09.590 Yeah. I mean, the thing that really jumps out 00:01:09.590 --> 00:01:12.230 at me is just the speed and the scope of what 00:01:12.230 --> 00:01:14.150 they're trying to do. It's pretty remarkable. 00:01:14.469 --> 00:01:18.230 It is. I mean, one of your sources here, a senior 00:01:18.230 --> 00:01:20.930 macro analyst at Hedge Eye named Josh Steiner, 00:01:21.769 --> 00:01:24.010 basically said that their goal is to reverse 00:01:24.200 --> 00:01:27.870 like decades. of trade policies that they see 00:01:27.870 --> 00:01:30.109 as having disadvantaged the middle class and 00:01:30.109 --> 00:01:32.890 benefited corporations. Right. So this this idea 00:01:32.890 --> 00:01:35.730 that trade policy for the last 40 or 50 years 00:01:35.730 --> 00:01:38.250 hasn't served the average American. Yeah. That 00:01:38.250 --> 00:01:40.530 it's been all about, you know, kind of this globalized 00:01:40.530 --> 00:01:43.310 corporate world. And Steiner doesn't mince words 00:01:43.310 --> 00:01:45.510 either. No, he doesn't. He says trying to undo 00:01:45.510 --> 00:01:48.069 that much policy in just four to six months is 00:01:48.069 --> 00:01:49.969 not going to be pain free. No, it's going to 00:01:49.969 --> 00:01:52.129 be a real jolt to the system. Yeah. So it sounds 00:01:52.129 --> 00:01:54.670 like we're we're expecting maybe a bit of a rough 00:01:54.670 --> 00:01:57.469 ride. Well, yeah, Steiner's prediction is that 00:01:57.469 --> 00:02:02.069 we'll probably see growth, you know, significantly 00:02:02.069 --> 00:02:04.629 subdued in the second quarter as a result of 00:02:04.629 --> 00:02:06.569 these reciprocal tariffs that are scheduled to 00:02:06.569 --> 00:02:09.590 take effect on April 2nd. Right, right. So there's 00:02:09.590 --> 00:02:11.530 going to be this sort of like, you know, kind 00:02:11.530 --> 00:02:14.710 of a dip. Yeah, a deliberate cooling of the economy. 00:02:15.129 --> 00:02:17.370 Right, exactly. A deliberate cooling of the economy. 00:02:17.889 --> 00:02:20.860 But as you pointed out, There's maybe a bigger 00:02:20.860 --> 00:02:23.159 strategic play here, especially when you consider 00:02:23.159 --> 00:02:25.240 the size of the national debt. Well, that's right. 00:02:25.319 --> 00:02:27.159 I mean, we can't ignore the fact that we have 00:02:27.159 --> 00:02:29.900 this nearly $8 trillion in debt that needs to 00:02:29.900 --> 00:02:31.620 be rolled over in the first nine months of this 00:02:31.620 --> 00:02:34.460 year. Right. A huge amount. Yeah. And so the 00:02:34.460 --> 00:02:37.879 timing of these tariffs, if you think about it, 00:02:38.020 --> 00:02:40.460 this slowdown in growth, it could actually give 00:02:40.460 --> 00:02:43.139 them a lever to push interest rates down. Oh, 00:02:43.139 --> 00:02:45.590 interesting. So make that debt. Less expensive. 00:02:45.990 --> 00:02:48.129 Exactly. So it's like this calculated risk, you 00:02:48.129 --> 00:02:50.669 know, inflict a little bit of pain now to potentially 00:02:50.669 --> 00:02:53.409 alleviate this massive debt burden. Wow. And, 00:02:53.409 --> 00:02:55.469 you know, Steiner actually crunched the numbers 00:02:55.469 --> 00:02:58.490 and he suggests that even just a one percentage 00:02:58.490 --> 00:03:01.550 point reduction in interest on, you know, let's 00:03:01.550 --> 00:03:03.629 say seven and a half trillion dollars of that 00:03:03.629 --> 00:03:06.569 debt could save seventy five billion dollars 00:03:06.569 --> 00:03:09.370 annually. That's a lot of money. That's a lot 00:03:09.370 --> 00:03:12.409 of money. That's a significant step. towards 00:03:12.409 --> 00:03:14.750 really addressing the deficit. It could really 00:03:14.750 --> 00:03:17.189 make it down. So it's a high stakes gamble. It 00:03:17.189 --> 00:03:19.990 is. But there's a potential reward. Oh, absolutely. 00:03:20.229 --> 00:03:22.490 And politically, it seems pretty clear that the 00:03:22.490 --> 00:03:24.909 administration is, you know, if there is a downturn 00:03:24.909 --> 00:03:27.270 early on, they're going to blame it on the previous 00:03:27.270 --> 00:03:29.229 administration. Oh, yeah. They're already setting 00:03:29.229 --> 00:03:31.810 the stage. Makes sense. Kind of a classic playbook. 00:03:32.030 --> 00:03:34.590 OK, let's shift gears now and talk about what's 00:03:34.590 --> 00:03:36.569 happening on the international stage, because 00:03:36.569 --> 00:03:39.530 things are getting well. interesting, let's say, 00:03:39.629 --> 00:03:42.169 with both adversaries and allies. Yeah, it's 00:03:42.169 --> 00:03:44.789 a very mixed bag. And I think a good place to 00:03:44.789 --> 00:03:47.449 start would be with Ukraine. OK. Because there 00:03:47.449 --> 00:03:49.650 seems to be a real disconnect between what the 00:03:49.650 --> 00:03:51.389 administration is saying and what's actually 00:03:51.389 --> 00:03:54.550 happening. Yeah, a lot of contradictions. So 00:03:54.550 --> 00:03:57.150 Trump, you know, after speaking with Putin, announces 00:03:57.150 --> 00:04:01.629 this immediate ceasefire on energy and infrastructure. 00:04:01.930 --> 00:04:04.069 Right. Big pronouncements. Huge pronouncements. 00:04:04.169 --> 00:04:07.689 Yeah. And predicts a swift end to the war. like 00:04:07.689 --> 00:04:09.490 the art of the deal applied to international 00:04:09.490 --> 00:04:11.710 relations. Right, exactly. He even went on social 00:04:11.710 --> 00:04:15.509 media talking about a complete ceasefire, an 00:04:15.509 --> 00:04:18.769 end to this very horrible war. Very optimistic. 00:04:18.990 --> 00:04:21.329 Very optimistic indeed. But then you look at 00:04:21.329 --> 00:04:23.370 what your sources are saying and it's a very 00:04:23.370 --> 00:04:25.009 different story on the ground. Right. It's like 00:04:25.009 --> 00:04:27.870 in a completely different reality. So Putin reportedly 00:04:27.870 --> 00:04:30.509 rejected Ukraine's proposed ceasefire terms. 00:04:30.810 --> 00:04:33.889 Oh, wow. And you only agree to this very limited 00:04:33.889 --> 00:04:36.050 ceasefire. So not at all what Trump was saying. 00:04:36.230 --> 00:04:38.370 Not even close. And then what's really alarming 00:04:38.370 --> 00:04:41.230 is that almost immediately after this so -called 00:04:41.230 --> 00:04:43.970 agreement, there were reports of Russian forces 00:04:43.970 --> 00:04:46.730 bombing a Ukrainian power plant, a hospital. 00:04:47.209 --> 00:04:49.250 So much for that ceasefire. Right. And it really 00:04:49.250 --> 00:04:51.569 makes you question, you know, what exactly does 00:04:51.569 --> 00:04:54.490 energy and infrastructure mean in this context? 00:04:54.709 --> 00:04:56.790 Right. It seems like they're playing with words. 00:04:56.930 --> 00:04:58.709 Yeah. And it certainly doesn't sound like a genuine 00:04:58.709 --> 00:05:01.459 DS graduation. No, not at all. It makes you wonder 00:05:01.459 --> 00:05:05.819 about, you know, how much credibility these diplomatic 00:05:05.819 --> 00:05:08.360 efforts really have. That's the big takeaway 00:05:08.360 --> 00:05:10.459 here, right? Is that there's this real disconnect 00:05:10.459 --> 00:05:14.120 between the rhetoric and the reality. Yeah. And 00:05:14.120 --> 00:05:16.519 it raises some serious questions about, you know, 00:05:16.860 --> 00:05:18.660 what kind of leverage does the administration 00:05:18.660 --> 00:05:21.079 actually have? What's really going on behind 00:05:21.079 --> 00:05:22.899 the scenes? Like, how much are they willing to 00:05:22.899 --> 00:05:24.439 tolerate? Yeah. I mean, one of your sources, 00:05:24.519 --> 00:05:27.000 the National Review, they basically that Putin 00:05:27.000 --> 00:05:30.060 is treating Trump with open contempt. And they 00:05:30.060 --> 00:05:32.839 question, you know, how much humiliation the 00:05:32.839 --> 00:05:35.079 administration is willing to endure. Right. And 00:05:35.079 --> 00:05:37.180 then you have foreign policy, which is even more 00:05:37.180 --> 00:05:39.639 pessimistic. Oh, really? Yeah, they're suggesting 00:05:39.639 --> 00:05:42.300 that it might be time for Ukraine to just accept 00:05:42.300 --> 00:05:45.300 what they call an ugly piece. Wow, an ugly piece. 00:05:45.660 --> 00:05:48.269 That's a... That's a pretty bleak assessment. 00:05:48.470 --> 00:05:50.470 Yeah, it's not a good situation. And you know, 00:05:50.509 --> 00:05:52.350 it's important to remember that we're now past 00:05:52.350 --> 00:05:55.170 that 60 -day mark that Trump himself set for 00:05:55.170 --> 00:05:57.949 ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Oh, right. 00:05:58.449 --> 00:06:01.009 And neither conflict seems anywhere near a resolution. 00:06:01.589 --> 00:06:03.529 No, it seems like things are actually escalating. 00:06:03.810 --> 00:06:06.029 Right. So that's a tough metric early in the 00:06:06.029 --> 00:06:07.709 administration. Definitely not going according 00:06:07.709 --> 00:06:10.370 to plan. OK, so we've talked about adversaries. 00:06:10.670 --> 00:06:13.110 What about allies? Because it seems like things 00:06:13.110 --> 00:06:15.589 aren't going so well there either. No, not really. 00:06:15.769 --> 00:06:19.250 Yeah. Your sources are highlighting this growing 00:06:19.250 --> 00:06:22.889 wave of anti -American sentiment in countries 00:06:22.889 --> 00:06:25.310 that are currently at peace. Yeah, it's pretty 00:06:25.310 --> 00:06:28.509 remarkable. And it's not just like a few isolated 00:06:28.509 --> 00:06:30.850 incidents. It seems to be pretty widespread. 00:06:30.930 --> 00:06:32.670 It really does. And it's especially pronounced 00:06:32.670 --> 00:06:35.329 in Canada, which we've seen some tension with 00:06:35.329 --> 00:06:38.290 before. But now it's spreading to Europe. Right, 00:06:38.610 --> 00:06:40.649 and the example of Denmark really stands out. 00:06:40.790 --> 00:06:42.209 Yeah, it's really quite something. They have 00:06:42.209 --> 00:06:44.870 these boycotts of American -made products that 00:06:44.870 --> 00:06:46.589 are happening all over the country. It's like 00:06:46.589 --> 00:06:49.509 a mass movement. It is, and what's really interesting 00:06:49.509 --> 00:06:51.949 is how organized it is. Yeah, they're not messing 00:06:51.949 --> 00:06:54.089 around. I mean, there's this Danish Facebook 00:06:54.089 --> 00:06:58.550 page called Boykot Verre Fra USA, which has like 00:06:58.550 --> 00:07:01.050 80 ,000 members. Wow, that's a lot of people. 00:07:01.290 --> 00:07:03.470 And then you have the selling group, which is 00:07:03.470 --> 00:07:06.750 a major supermarket chain. They're actually labeling 00:07:06.750 --> 00:07:09.509 non -American goods with a red star so people 00:07:09.509 --> 00:07:11.449 know what to buy. So they're really going out 00:07:11.449 --> 00:07:13.689 of their way to avoid American products. They 00:07:13.689 --> 00:07:16.209 are. And one of your sources, Jens Olsen, who's 00:07:16.209 --> 00:07:20.269 a longtime observer of Danish society, he said 00:07:20.269 --> 00:07:23.860 that he's never seen Danes this upset. Wow, so 00:07:23.860 --> 00:07:26.300 this is like a really deep -seated anger. It 00:07:26.300 --> 00:07:29.040 seems to be, and it's not just a general dissatisfaction 00:07:29.040 --> 00:07:31.199 either. I mean, they're targeting specific products. 00:07:31.379 --> 00:07:34.199 Like what kind of products? Coke Hines, Jack 00:07:34.199 --> 00:07:36.939 Daniels, even Teslas. Wow. So really hitting 00:07:36.939 --> 00:07:39.399 some iconic American brands. Yeah. But what's 00:07:39.399 --> 00:07:41.120 interesting is that data -driven companies like 00:07:41.120 --> 00:07:44.339 Facebook and Netflix seem to be exempt. Oh, so 00:07:44.339 --> 00:07:46.060 maybe it's more about physical goods, like things 00:07:46.060 --> 00:07:49.300 that are made in America. Right. Tangible representations 00:07:49.300 --> 00:07:51.680 of American industry. And the potential economic 00:07:51.680 --> 00:07:53.800 impact of all of this is pretty significant, 00:07:53.939 --> 00:07:55.860 especially when you consider tourism. Right. 00:07:55.899 --> 00:07:58.019 Your sources suggest that there could be a 5 00:07:58.019 --> 00:08:00.540 % drop in tourism this year. Which would be a 00:08:00.540 --> 00:08:04.009 $64 billion hit. Yeah, but some estimates go 00:08:04.009 --> 00:08:06.670 even higher, potentially exceeding $200 billion. 00:08:07.310 --> 00:08:09.949 Oh, wow. That's a massive number. It is. And, 00:08:10.029 --> 00:08:11.310 you know, it's important to remember that this 00:08:11.310 --> 00:08:13.490 is different from tariffs. Right, because tariffs 00:08:13.490 --> 00:08:16.290 can be reversed. Exactly. But this kind of negative 00:08:16.290 --> 00:08:19.149 sentiment, this damage to relationships, that 00:08:19.149 --> 00:08:21.089 takes much longer to repair. Yeah, it's like, 00:08:21.089 --> 00:08:22.529 you know, once you lose trust, it's hard to get 00:08:22.529 --> 00:08:25.689 it back. Right. And this could really have long 00:08:25.689 --> 00:08:28.230 lasting repercussions for America's standing 00:08:28.230 --> 00:08:30.769 in the world and its economic ties with key allies. 00:08:31.040 --> 00:08:33.220 Alright, let's turn our attention now to a different 00:08:33.220 --> 00:08:35.200 kind of conflict that's happening here in the 00:08:35.200 --> 00:08:37.799 U .S., and that's the escalating battle over 00:08:37.799 --> 00:08:39.840 abortion rights. Yeah, this is a really concerning 00:08:39.840 --> 00:08:42.620 development. It is, and the situation in Texas 00:08:42.620 --> 00:08:45.419 is particularly alarming, it seems like. Texas 00:08:45.419 --> 00:08:48.480 AG Ken Paxton is taking an incredibly aggressive 00:08:48.480 --> 00:08:51.100 stance. I mean, what's really disturbing is this 00:08:51.100 --> 00:08:54.879 apparent focus on criminalizing pregnancy itself. 00:08:55.120 --> 00:08:57.000 Yeah, and they're targeting some of the most 00:08:57.000 --> 00:08:59.799 vulnerable communities. Absolutely. The arrest 00:08:59.799 --> 00:09:03.179 of this midwife, Maria Margarita Rojas, is a 00:09:03.179 --> 00:09:05.379 perfect example. Tell me more about that. So 00:09:05.379 --> 00:09:08.340 she's a licensed obstetrician from Peru, and 00:09:08.340 --> 00:09:11.740 she runs these low -cost clinics for poor Spanish 00:09:11.740 --> 00:09:14.159 -speaking women of color in Houston. Oh, wow. 00:09:14.220 --> 00:09:16.539 So she's providing essential care to a community 00:09:16.539 --> 00:09:19.169 that really needs it. Exactly. And they arrested 00:09:19.169 --> 00:09:21.429 her initially for practicing without a license, 00:09:21.809 --> 00:09:24.669 but then the charges escalated to attempting 00:09:24.669 --> 00:09:26.909 an abortion. Right. And they set her bond at 00:09:26.909 --> 00:09:29.610 $1 .2 million? Yeah, it's just an outrageous 00:09:29.610 --> 00:09:32.669 amount. That's crazy. It seems completely disproportionate 00:09:32.669 --> 00:09:35.070 to the alleged crime. It does. And it really 00:09:35.070 --> 00:09:38.049 makes you question what's really motivating this 00:09:38.049 --> 00:09:39.610 action. Yeah, it just feels very politically 00:09:39.610 --> 00:09:42.350 motivated. Well, there was this alleged anonymous 00:09:42.350 --> 00:09:45.070 tip involving Mesopristol. Right. But Mesopristol 00:09:45.070 --> 00:09:47.570 has multiple legitimate medical uses. Exactly. 00:09:47.610 --> 00:09:50.009 So it's not like it's just used for abortions. 00:09:50.129 --> 00:09:52.570 Right. And the timing of this arrest is also 00:09:52.570 --> 00:09:54.909 interesting. How so? Well, it happened right 00:09:54.909 --> 00:09:56.980 around on the same time that Texas passed this 00:09:56.980 --> 00:09:59.940 bill targeting websites with abortion information. 00:10:00.019 --> 00:10:03.379 Oh, wow. And Paxson himself is reportedly considering 00:10:03.379 --> 00:10:06.220 a primary challenge to Senator John Cornyn. Oh, 00:10:06.240 --> 00:10:07.779 so maybe he's trying to make a name for himself 00:10:07.779 --> 00:10:09.940 by being tough on abortion. Right. It's all about 00:10:09.940 --> 00:10:12.590 creating a very specific narrative. Yeah. And 00:10:12.590 --> 00:10:15.350 the potential impact of all this on health care 00:10:15.350 --> 00:10:18.269 access for women in Texas is pretty terrifying. 00:10:18.649 --> 00:10:20.549 Absolutely. I mean, it's already incredibly difficult 00:10:20.549 --> 00:10:22.929 to access abortion care in Texas. Right. And 00:10:22.929 --> 00:10:24.690 now with this kind of crackdown, it's going to 00:10:24.690 --> 00:10:26.870 become even harder. Right. It's going to create 00:10:26.870 --> 00:10:29.049 this chilling effect where doctors are afraid 00:10:29.049 --> 00:10:31.190 to provide any kind of care to pregnant women. 00:10:31.409 --> 00:10:34.149 Exactly. And it's likely to lead to even more 00:10:34.149 --> 00:10:36.769 OB -GYNs leaving the state. Right. We're already 00:10:36.769 --> 00:10:39.070 seeing that happening. It's a real crisis. And 00:10:39.070 --> 00:10:41.289 one of your sources, Mark Herron from the Center 00:10:41.289 --> 00:10:44.049 for Reproductive Rights, he had a really powerful 00:10:44.049 --> 00:10:47.149 quote. What did he say? He said that Texas does 00:10:47.149 --> 00:10:50.750 not care about women's lives. Wow. And that they're 00:10:50.750 --> 00:10:53.570 solely focused on preventing women from accessing 00:10:53.570 --> 00:10:56.879 essential care. That's a pretty damning statement. 00:10:57.039 --> 00:10:59.779 It is and it's a stark reminder of Trump's broken 00:10:59.779 --> 00:11:03.860 promise to protect access to abortifacient drugs. 00:11:04.139 --> 00:11:06.279 Right. He said he would do that during the campaign. 00:11:06.340 --> 00:11:09.139 He did. And he's been completely silent on Paxton's 00:11:09.139 --> 00:11:11.720 actions. So much for that promise. Yeah. It's 00:11:11.720 --> 00:11:14.759 a real betrayal. And while abortion wasn't the 00:11:14.759 --> 00:11:16.980 only issue in the last election, it did have 00:11:16.980 --> 00:11:19.440 a significant impact on turnout in several post 00:11:19.440 --> 00:11:21.799 -Obs elections. Right. It really galvanized voters. 00:11:22.019 --> 00:11:24.080 Absolutely. And this situation in Texas is likely 00:11:24.080 --> 00:11:26.429 to do the same thing. Yeah, it's going to provide 00:11:26.429 --> 00:11:28.470 a lot of political momentum for the Democrats 00:11:28.470 --> 00:11:31.549 heading into 2026. Oh, absolutely. OK, let's 00:11:31.549 --> 00:11:33.830 move on now and talk about what's happening inside 00:11:33.830 --> 00:11:35.789 the Democratic Party, because it seems like Chuck 00:11:35.789 --> 00:11:38.169 Schumer is having a bit of a rough time. Yeah, 00:11:38.169 --> 00:11:40.409 he's facing some serious challenges. What's the 00:11:40.409 --> 00:11:43.090 underlying story there? The immediate trigger 00:11:43.090 --> 00:11:46.889 for this current backlash seems to be his vote. 00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:50.059 to invoke cloture on the continuing resolution. 00:11:50.299 --> 00:11:52.559 Remind me what cloture is again. It's a Senate 00:11:52.559 --> 00:11:55.519 procedure that limits debate and forces a vote. 00:11:55.639 --> 00:11:59.080 Oh, right. And a lot of Democrats saw this as 00:11:59.080 --> 00:12:02.240 a miscalculation on Schumer's part. How so? They 00:12:02.240 --> 00:12:04.139 felt like he didn't take a strong enough stance 00:12:04.139 --> 00:12:06.659 against Republican priorities. So he kind of 00:12:06.659 --> 00:12:09.559 caved. In a way, yeah. And the expectation was 00:12:09.559 --> 00:12:11.399 that House Speaker Johnson wouldn't be able to 00:12:11.399 --> 00:12:14.980 unify his caucus. But he did. He did. And so 00:12:14.980 --> 00:12:16.840 Schumer was left in this awkward position where 00:12:16.840 --> 00:12:19.159 he didn't have a clear counter strategy. And 00:12:19.159 --> 00:12:21.139 some of your sources are even describing his 00:12:21.139 --> 00:12:24.620 handling of the situation as amateurish. Yeah, 00:12:24.860 --> 00:12:27.259 that's pretty harsh criticism for someone with 00:12:27.259 --> 00:12:29.659 his level of experience. It is. And it's not 00:12:29.659 --> 00:12:32.620 just legislative challenges either. His new book 00:12:32.620 --> 00:12:35.240 on anti -Semitism has been getting a lot of negative 00:12:35.240 --> 00:12:38.279 attention. Oh, really? Yeah, including those 00:12:38.279 --> 00:12:41.980 reviews that mimicked a fragile book. Ouch. Yeah, 00:12:42.059 --> 00:12:44.039 and then he had to postpone his book tour due 00:12:44.039 --> 00:12:47.000 to security concerns. So Ann sounds like there's 00:12:47.000 --> 00:12:49.299 some real animosity out there. Yeah, it seems 00:12:49.299 --> 00:12:51.200 like it. And his media appearances haven't been 00:12:51.200 --> 00:12:53.480 going so well either. What happened? He got tough 00:12:53.480 --> 00:12:55.960 questioning on The View. Oh, wow. And then Gale 00:12:55.960 --> 00:12:59.299 King on CBS Mornings even brought up the possibility 00:12:59.299 --> 00:13:01.620 of calls for his removal. So it sounds like he's 00:13:01.620 --> 00:13:04.019 really under pressure. He is. And his attempts 00:13:04.019 --> 00:13:06.639 to mend fences with progressive groups don't 00:13:06.639 --> 00:13:09.740 seem to have gone very well either. How so? One 00:13:09.740 --> 00:13:11.860 of your sources described his listening tour 00:13:11.860 --> 00:13:16.360 as tense and unproductive. Oh, wow. So not a 00:13:16.360 --> 00:13:18.539 lot of love there. No. And then you have these 00:13:18.539 --> 00:13:21.019 criticisms from within his own caucus, including 00:13:21.019 --> 00:13:24.299 some pretty pointed remarks from Nancy Pelosi. 00:13:24.500 --> 00:13:26.879 Oh, really? Yeah. And some pretty harsh private 00:13:26.879 --> 00:13:28.879 assessments from House Democrats. So it sounds 00:13:28.879 --> 00:13:31.100 like there's a real fracturing of support. There 00:13:31.100 --> 00:13:34.259 is. And then you have this possibility of a primary 00:13:34.259 --> 00:13:38.039 challenge from Alexandria Ocasio -Cortez in 2028. 00:13:38.159 --> 00:13:40.799 Wow. That would be a big shakeup. It would. And 00:13:40.799 --> 00:13:42.779 while it seems unlikely that he'll be ousted 00:13:42.779 --> 00:13:45.460 immediately, your sources suggest that there 00:13:45.460 --> 00:13:48.080 is a growing possibility of a change in leadership 00:13:48.080 --> 00:13:50.460 in the next Congress. Yeah. I mean, he's facing 00:13:50.460 --> 00:13:52.480 a lot of the same headwinds that McConnell faced. 00:13:52.899 --> 00:13:55.379 Right. The sense that he represents a different 00:13:55.379 --> 00:13:58.279 era in political leadership. Exactly. And even 00:13:58.279 --> 00:14:01.580 if he doesn't get ousted, this erosion of confidence 00:14:01.580 --> 00:14:04.740 within his own caucus can really diminish his 00:14:04.740 --> 00:14:06.899 effectiveness as a leader. Right. It makes it 00:14:06.899 --> 00:14:09.460 hard to get things done. And it can really impact 00:14:09.460 --> 00:14:11.940 the party's overall strategy. Okay, let's wrap 00:14:11.940 --> 00:14:14.059 up by talking about the recent polling data because 00:14:14.059 --> 00:14:16.080 it's painting a pretty interesting picture of 00:14:16.080 --> 00:14:18.440 where things stand right now. Yeah, it's a mixed 00:14:18.440 --> 00:14:20.940 bag for sure. So the Democrats are seeing some 00:14:20.940 --> 00:14:23.960 record low positive ratings, 27 percent in the 00:14:23.960 --> 00:14:28.000 NBC News poll and 29 percent in the CNN's SRS 00:14:28.000 --> 00:14:30.139 poll. Yeah, those are some tough numbers. They 00:14:30.139 --> 00:14:31.919 are. But it's important to understand what these 00:14:31.919 --> 00:14:34.299 numbers really mean. Right. We have to dig deeper. 00:14:34.360 --> 00:14:36.639 And that's where the analysis from Democratic 00:14:36.639 --> 00:14:39.059 pollster David Shore becomes really relevant. 00:14:39.059 --> 00:14:42.139 OK. Because his polling suggests that higher 00:14:42.139 --> 00:14:45.240 voter turnout in 2024 might have actually contributed 00:14:45.240 --> 00:14:48.379 to Kamala Harris's loss. Now, that's counterintuitive. 00:14:48.559 --> 00:14:50.860 It is, right? You would think that higher turnout 00:14:50.860 --> 00:14:52.799 would benefit the Democrats. Yeah, that's the 00:14:52.799 --> 00:14:54.860 conventional wisdom. But Schor's interpretation 00:14:54.860 --> 00:14:56.820 is that there was a segment of the electorate 00:14:56.820 --> 00:14:59.019 that was dissatisfied with both the Democratic 00:14:59.019 --> 00:15:01.299 and Republican options, and they just stayed 00:15:01.299 --> 00:15:03.990 home. So they weren't inspired by either candidate. 00:15:04.169 --> 00:15:06.190 Right, exactly. And it's not just about who didn't 00:15:06.190 --> 00:15:08.870 vote the polls. Also indicated that a large percentage 00:15:08.870 --> 00:15:10.889 of Democrats themselves are upset with their 00:15:10.889 --> 00:15:13.110 own party. Oh, really? How large are we talking? 00:15:13.289 --> 00:15:16.649 Around 75 % in both the NBC and CNN surveys. 00:15:16.830 --> 00:15:19.490 Wow. So a significant chunk of their own base 00:15:19.490 --> 00:15:22.350 is unhappy. Yeah. And they're unhappy with the 00:15:22.350 --> 00:15:24.750 party's perceived lack of action. So they want 00:15:24.750 --> 00:15:27.629 to see the Democrats doing more. Exactly. They 00:15:27.629 --> 00:15:29.750 want to see them fighting harder for their priorities. 00:15:30.049 --> 00:15:31.789 So it's a challenge, but it's also an opportunity. 00:15:31.960 --> 00:15:34.179 How so? Well, it means that there's a potential 00:15:34.179 --> 00:15:36.240 pathway to regaining their support. Right. So 00:15:36.240 --> 00:15:38.659 if they can show that they're listening to their 00:15:38.659 --> 00:15:41.419 base and they're taking action, they could win 00:15:41.419 --> 00:15:44.220 back those voters. Exactly. And one of your sources 00:15:44.220 --> 00:15:48.299 drew this really interesting parallel to FDR's 00:15:48.299 --> 00:15:50.559 response to early criticism of the New Deal. 00:15:50.840 --> 00:15:53.429 Oh, tell me more about that. So the idea is that 00:15:53.429 --> 00:15:56.250 this period before the next major election cycle 00:15:56.250 --> 00:15:59.049 is the best time for the Democrats to take strong 00:15:59.049 --> 00:16:01.710 action. So now's the time to make bold moves. 00:16:01.750 --> 00:16:03.450 Right, to show that they're serious about addressing 00:16:03.450 --> 00:16:05.610 the concerns of their base. Because of the old 00:16:05.610 --> 00:16:08.799 message of things are great. clearly isn't working. 00:16:09.159 --> 00:16:10.899 No, it's not resonating with a lot of voters. 00:16:11.379 --> 00:16:14.539 And looking ahead to 2028, your sources raise 00:16:14.539 --> 00:16:16.940 this interesting point about the potential for 00:16:16.940 --> 00:16:20.279 a Democratic nominee to really connect with rural 00:16:20.279 --> 00:16:22.919 America. That's a key demographic that the Democrats 00:16:22.919 --> 00:16:24.679 have been struggling with. They have and they 00:16:24.679 --> 00:16:27.720 draw another parallel here to FDR success in 00:16:27.720 --> 00:16:31.600 1932, where he really appealed to rural voters 00:16:31.600 --> 00:16:33.960 during an economic crisis. Right. And he was 00:16:33.960 --> 00:16:36.600 running against an unpopular incumbent. Exactly. 00:16:37.440 --> 00:16:39.139 There are some interesting similarities there. 00:16:39.360 --> 00:16:41.360 So even though the current polling numbers might 00:16:41.360 --> 00:16:44.659 look bad on the surface, there's a more complex 00:16:44.659 --> 00:16:46.779 narrative at play here. Yeah, there's a lot of 00:16:46.779 --> 00:16:48.700 dissatisfaction across the political spectrum. 00:16:48.960 --> 00:16:51.440 Right. And there's a potential path forward for 00:16:51.440 --> 00:16:53.820 the Democrats if they can recalibrate their message 00:16:53.820 --> 00:16:56.139 and their strategy. They need to show that they're 00:16:56.139 --> 00:16:57.960 listening and that they're taking action. And 00:16:57.960 --> 00:16:59.840 they need to connect with voters in a way that 00:16:59.840 --> 00:17:02.820 feels authentic and meaningful. Exactly. Well, 00:17:02.820 --> 00:17:05.319 this has been a really fascinating deep dive. 00:17:05.539 --> 00:17:07.980 It has. We've come to a lot of ground today. 00:17:07.980 --> 00:17:10.460 A lot of ground. We've talked about the high 00:17:10.460 --> 00:17:13.720 stakes nature of the new trade policy, the challenges 00:17:13.720 --> 00:17:16.319 and criticisms surrounding the administration's 00:17:16.319 --> 00:17:18.380 diplomatic efforts. Yeah, those are some serious 00:17:18.380 --> 00:17:21.480 issues. The escalation in the battle over abortion 00:17:21.480 --> 00:17:23.799 rights in Texas. A very concerning development. 00:17:24.009 --> 00:17:26.410 The divisions within the Democratic Party. Yeah, 00:17:26.529 --> 00:17:28.750 those are some real internal struggles. And the 00:17:28.750 --> 00:17:30.869 insights offered by the recent polling data. 00:17:31.069 --> 00:17:33.829 It's all connected. It is. And as you consider 00:17:33.829 --> 00:17:36.630 all of these different forces at play, I think 00:17:36.630 --> 00:17:39.569 a really important question to ask yourself is 00:17:39.569 --> 00:17:42.589 what single factor do you think is going to have 00:17:42.589 --> 00:17:44.990 the biggest impact on the political and economic 00:17:44.990 --> 00:17:47.480 landscape in the months ahead? Yeah. What's the 00:17:47.480 --> 00:17:49.480 thing that's going to tip the scales? And what 00:17:49.480 --> 00:17:51.799 connection might we be missing that ties all 00:17:51.799 --> 00:17:54.380 of these seemingly disparate events together? 00:17:54.619 --> 00:17:57.420 What's the underlying thread? Exactly. That's 00:17:57.420 --> 00:17:59.460 a really great question to think about. It is. 00:17:59.880 --> 00:18:01.640 Thank you for sharing these incredible sources 00:18:01.640 --> 00:18:03.759 with us and for joining us on this due dive. 00:18:03.920 --> 00:18:05.700 Yeah, this has been a great conversation. It 00:18:05.700 --> 00:18:08.579 has. And we encourage you to keep exploring these 00:18:08.579 --> 00:18:11.000 critical issues as they continue to unfold. Because 00:18:11.000 --> 00:18:13.359 things are changing fast. They are. And it's 00:18:13.359 --> 00:18:15.789 important to stay informed. Absolutely. Okay, 00:18:15.970 --> 00:18:17.690 that's it for this episode of The Deep Dive. 00:18:17.829 --> 00:18:19.869 Until next time. See ya. Bye. Bye.