You ever get that feeling like a knot in your stomach
when you see the economic headlines, you know,
and you're trying to figure out what it all means
with everything else going on, all the political stuff?
Yeah, it can be a lot to process.
Like trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while on a roller coaster.
Exactly, that feeling of being totally overwhelmed.
Well, that's what we're tackling today.
You sent over a really interesting bunch of articles
and analyses and we're gonna dive deep.
Yeah, deep dive.
See if we can pull out the most important,
the most fascinating insights
without getting lost in all the details.
Exactly, it's a snapshot of a pretty crazy time.
A lot of things happening at once.
So what we're gonna do is try to untangle it all for you.
How are these things connected?
The economy, the political strategies, the media,
and even what's happening up in Canada.
It's all right there in what you sent.
Right, we've got news reports, in-depth analyses,
opinions on the markets, political maneuvering,
how the media is changing.
Think of it as like your key cheat.
To understanding what's happening, why it's happening,
and what it all means
without having to read through a ton of articles yourself.
So good.
Okay, so let's jump in.
And maybe the best place to start
is with this bumpy ride the economy seems to be on.
Yeah, for sure.
You can't miss a headline like Trump wrecks the economy.
That's from Electoral Vote News.
And they make some pretty strong arguments.
Starting with the idea that trade policy right now
is, well, all over the place.
Okay.
They focus on the tariffs,
especially with Canada and Mexico.
And this possible 250% dairy tariff,
April 2nd, I think it was.
Which right away, you have to wonder,
what's the strategy there?
I mean, is this actually about policy
or is it about trying to strong arm these other countries,
maybe force them to negotiate,
but on terms that are more favorable to us?
And it makes you think, how is Canada's new leader,
the guy we'll talk about later,
gonna react to this kind of tactic?
But all this uncertainty that's back and forth,
it's definitely not good for business.
No, definitely not.
And then there's this whole thing about the job market.
And it's tied to this idea of DOGE, whatever that is.
DOGE.
Apparently it has to do with restructuring the government.
Like a lot of job cuts, the numbers are pretty scary.
60,000 federal employees possibly losing their jobs.
And a huge jump in job losses last month, like 245%.
The article said it's the worst February since 2009.
And that kind of shock to the system,
especially the public sector,
it's gonna have ripple effects throughout the economy.
It paints a pretty chaotic picture.
And then you've got Trump himself on Fox News
saying some things that seem to contradict
what he used to say about the economy.
Yeah, like that thing about,
you can't really watch the stock market.
That's a pretty big change.
I mean, he used to talk about how great the market
was doing all the time,
especially in his first term
and even earlier in this campaign.
Exactly.
So what's even more interesting
is this new focus on the longterm.
He even mentioned China
and how they think in terms of like a hundred year plan.
It's like a complete 180 from before
when he was all about immediate results
how the market was doing that day.
He even admitted that there might be some disruption coming,
maybe even a recession.
Almost like he's trying to get ahead of bad news.
Right. It's like saying,
hey, don't blame me if things go south.
But the Electoral Vote News article,
they point out that kind of talk
can also be seen as a lack of confidence.
And the markets definitely reacted
and not in a good way.
Yeah, big time.
I mean, over $1.75 trillion just gone, poof, in one day.
The Dow down 900 points, NASDAQ down 4%,
S&P 500 down 2.7%.
That's basically wiping out every gain
since he came into office.
It's hard to wrap your head around that amount of money.
Like $1.75 trillion,
that's basically the entire GDP of Italy.
Wow.
It really shows how much of an impact this had.
And it wasn't just the overall market.
Tesla got hit hard too.
Their stock dropped 15%.
Oh.
That's a $30 billion hit for Elon Musk.
Makes you wonder, is this just about what Trump said?
Yeah.
Or is there something else going on?
Are people starting to worry about Musk's leadership
about what's gonna happen with Tesla?
If that stock keeps going down,
it could really mess things up for him.
Yeah, talk about adding fuel to the Elon Musk fire.
But of course, there's another side to the story.
People like Representative Nicole Malia-Takas,
she's blaming Biden's policies for the economic problems.
Regulations, all the spending, interest rates.
And the Electoral Vote News article, they're fair.
They say, look, the economy's complicated,
things don't happen overnight.
They even bring up the Great Depression
and how some of those problems actually started
with the president before Hoover.
But they're not buying Malia-Takas' argument completely.
They're like, where's the evidence?
The Inflation Reduction Act, that was a while ago.
Why would things suddenly be going bad now because of that?
Yeah, the timing seems off.
It can't all be blamed on Biden, right?
Right.
And this is where things get really interesting.
Because now we're talking about the idea
of intentional market manipulation.
Exactly.
You sent those documents.
Could all of this be intentional?
And evidence supports the claim.
They go deep into this theory.
And the main guy behind this is Anthony Pompilano.
He's saying basically that Trump and his Treasury Secretary,
Scott Besant, might be doing this on purpose.
They're trying to make the market go crazy.
OK, why would they want to do that?
What's the point?
Well, here's how he explains it.
The US has to refinance a ton of debt soon, something
like $5.37 trillion.
And if interest rates are lower, it
will cost the government way less to borrow that money,
billions of dollars less.
OK, so the idea is, if they create enough uncertainty,
make everyone nervous, investors will
want to put their money in something safe, like Treasury
bonds.
And when more people want those bonds, the price goes up,
which means the yield, the interest rate goes down.
So they're basically trying to engineer
a mini economic earthquake to make borrowing cheaper.
Exactly.
And Pompilano is saying that all this stuff, the terrorists,
Trump's doom and gloom speeches, even
Besant talking about needing a detox from government spending,
it's all part of the plan.
Oh, OK.
Besant actually said the economy is
hooked on government spending, needs a detox.
So he's admitting that things might get rough in the short term.
Wow.
And Pompilano says that the tariffs specifically
have made investors nervous, which, by the way,
has caused the yield on the 10-year Treasury to go down.
Right.
It's fallen from almost 4.8% at the beginning of the year
to about 4.2 now.
And that kind of draw, it affects everything,
mortgages, business loans, it's a big deal.
Huge.
And then there's what Trump has been saying, stuff like,
nobody ever gets rich when interest rates are high.
Pretty telling, don't you think?
And he's not talking about the stock market as much anymore.
Before he was all about that as proof
that he was doing a good job.
Now it seems like he's more focused on the bond market
and trying to manage all that debt.
OK, so it's all circumstantial.
Right, there's no smoking gun.
But when you put it all together,
it does seem like it could be a deliberate strategy.
They need to borrow money.
They're using the tariffs and all this talk
to spook the markets and the markets are reacting.
It's definitely something to keep an eye on.
No doubt, for sure.
Now let's talk about something else
that could throw a wrench into the economy.
This whole government shutdown thing.
Right, electoral vote news laid that out pretty clearly.
Government funding's about to run out again.
And as usual, nobody thinks they'll actually
agree on a real budget.
So Speaker Johnson is pushing for another continuing
resolution.
A CER, right.
Exactly, a CER.
Just to keep the lights on for a little while longer.
But even a CER, it's not so simple these days.
Not with the political climate being what it is.
Yeah, how so?
This isn't just extending the Biden budget like they used to.
This CER has more money for things Republicans want,
like defense and border security.
But it cuts money for other programs.
Things like programs for families and children,
health care, even election security.
And there's nothing in there for disaster relief.
Which is concerning, because usually when there's
a hurricane or a big earthquake,
Congress is pretty quick to send money.
You would think.
But the Democrats aren't happy with this CER either, right?
Nope.
They're worried because it doesn't really limit
how Trump and Musk can spend the money.
It gives them a lot of leeway.
And they're talking about some creative accounting,
I guess you could call it, that would let them move money
around even more.
So it's supposed to be just keeping things the same.
But it really favors Republicans and the mangy agenda.
Interesting.
And it sounds like the vote in the House is going to be close.
Oh, yeah.
Nailbiter.
The Republicans have a tiny majority.
Trump and Jefferies, the minority leader,
they're both whipping votes like crazy.
We know of at least one Republican who's a definite no.
But there are a few Democrats who might vote yes.
It could go either way.
Really?
Wow.
And then if it passes the House, it goes to the Senate.
And that's where things get really tricky for the Democrats.
How so?
They try to block it.
If they do, and the government shuts down,
they'll get blamed, especially with the markets
already being so volatile.
But if they don't, they have to swallow a bill that they hate.
And it's technically an extension of their own party's budget.
Senator Federman seems like he'll vote yes,
but a bunch of other Democrats are going to vote no.
And then you have Rand Paul.
They'll probably vote no too, even though he's a Republican.
It's a total mess.
It sounds like it.
Another shutdown cliffhanger.
OK, well, let's move on to a different kind of instability.
The media, it seems like things are changing there, too,
in a big way.
They are.
Electoral vote news had some examples that really stood out.
First, you have Ruth Marcus, a columnist at the Washington
Post for a long time, very well respected.
She resigned.
She did.
Yeah.
Seems like it was over a column she wrote that was critical
of Jeff Bezos, the owner of the post.
They wouldn't publish it.
When someone like that quits, you know something's up.
It definitely makes you think about how much control owners
have over what gets published, especially when a big name
journalist feels like they have to leave.
But then there's CNN.
And they just gave Scott Jennings, one of their commentators,
a new contract and a raise.
Yeah, and Jennings is supposed to be the conservative voice
there.
But some of the things he said lately,
well, they're pretty out there.
The article gave some examples, like he said
Trump can ignore court rulings if they
don't come from the Supreme Court.
And he defended Elon Musk in some pretty weird ways.
And then there were these inflammatory comments
about all kinds of social issues.
OK.
It's like he's just trying to provoke people,
not have a real conversation.
So electoral vote news didn't hold back.
They called him a heel, like in professional wrestling.
The bad guy who's there to get the crowd riled up.
And they really went after CNN saying
they're getting rid of good journalists, but paying this guy
more to just spout off partisan talking points.
It makes you question where the media is headed.
And that leads right into the next part of the media
discussion.
Jonathan V last, he writes for the Bull Work.
And he had this article called, All Media
Will Be Forced to Choose.
He says the media is splitting into three groups.
State media, then this kind of neutral reporting,
like you'd see for sports, and then pro-democracy media.
OK.
But he thinks that won't last.
Eventually there'll just be two sides.
Those who are against authoritarianism
and those who are OK with it.
Wow.
That's a pretty grim picture of the future of the media.
And it's interesting that he refuses to call Fox News.
It's not just people on one side of the political spectrum
who are worried about this.
Mike Maznik from TechDirt, he wrote a piece about how they've
basically become a democracy blog,
even though that wasn't their original intention.
He said it's because of what he sees
as a mass destruction of fundamental concepts
of democracy.
Strong words.
Very strong.
And he's saying it's not just about normal political
disagreements.
It's about something much bigger, something
that threatens innovation and freedom.
So the bottom line here is, with all the political craziness,
media outlets are having to figure out who they are.
Do they stick to this idea of neutrality,
or do they take a stand and defend democracy?
It's a big shift from how the media used to be.
It really is.
OK, let's move on to some international news.
It looks like Canada has a new leader,
and it's a big change.
Yeah.
Mark Carney, he used to run the Bank of Canada
and the Bank of England.
Huge resume.
He just won the leadership election
for the Liberal Party, taking over for Justin Trudeau.
That's a pretty big deal, considering he's never
held elected office before.
It is.
But he's got all this experience in public service,
and he's a big name in international finance.
The Electoral Vote News article compared him to Trump.
They said Carney is actually educated
and knows how to run a business, not just pretending
like Trump.
OK, interesting.
And it sounds like Carney is a centrist.
He wouldn't join Harper's conservative government before.
Even Christia Freeland, who was a big part of Trudeau's cabinet,
she didn't do well in the leadership race.
It seems like the Liberals are ready for something different.
For sure.
The article had a polling chart, and you
can see this big swing towards the Liberals
around January 20.
So yeah, big change in public opinion up in Canada.
And then there's Carney's victory speech.
He came right out and said he's going to get rid of the carbon
tax and stop the capital gains tax increase.
So different economic policies for sure.
But the most interesting part of the speech
was when he went after Trump's trade policies, called them
unjustified tariffs.
And he was really strong in defending Canadian values.
Health care is a right, multiculturalism,
respecting First Nations and the French language.
And that line, America is not Canada,
and Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way,
shape, or form.
That was powerful.
Really powerful.
It's a clear message that he's going to lead differently
than Trump.
And with all this momentum, plus what they're
calling the Trump bump in Canadian politics,
it seems like there will be an election soon, maybe even
next month.
Wow.
It's going to be fascinating to see how this affects things
between the US and Canada, especially
on trade and economics.
Absolutely.
Oh, and one last thing.
Electoral vote news included a comment
from a reader in Germany about how Friedrich Merce changed
his mind on the debt break after the election there.
Just a reminder that big things are
happening all over the world.
So when you look at everything you sent us,
it paints a pretty complex picture.
There's the potential for real economic problems in the US,
maybe even caused on purpose to lower interest rates.
Then there's the political gridlock in Washington,
always on the edge of another government shutdown.
And the media is in turmoil, trying
to figure out how to handle all the polarization.
And now you have Canada, a new leader, a new direction,
a clear contrast with the US.
And remember, everything we talked about today,
it's all based on what you sent.
We tried to make sense of it all, see the connections,
without drowning you in the details.
Exactly.
But it raises some big questions.
Questions for you to think about.
Like, with all these strategies and uncertainty,
what's going to happen to the global economy in the long run?
What's the role of a free press in a world where everyone's
fighting?
And what kind of leadership do we really need
to navigate all of this?
These are the big takeaways from this deep dive.
And we hope you keep thinking about them.
Because these aren't easy questions,
and they affect all of us.
That's for sure.
Thanks for sending us these sources.
It's always fascinating to explore these things together.
Yeah, definitely.
Thanks for having me.
Until next time, keep those brains buzzing,
and those questions coming.
Thank you.