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You ever get that feeling like a knot in your stomach

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when you see the economic headlines, you know,

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and you're trying to figure out what it all means

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with everything else going on, all the political stuff?

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Yeah, it can be a lot to process.

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Like trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while on a roller coaster.

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Exactly, that feeling of being totally overwhelmed.

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Well, that's what we're tackling today.

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You sent over a really interesting bunch of articles

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and analyses and we're gonna dive deep.

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Yeah, deep dive.

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See if we can pull out the most important,

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the most fascinating insights

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without getting lost in all the details.

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Exactly, it's a snapshot of a pretty crazy time.

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A lot of things happening at once.

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So what we're gonna do is try to untangle it all for you.

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How are these things connected?

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The economy, the political strategies, the media,

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and even what's happening up in Canada.

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It's all right there in what you sent.

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Right, we've got news reports, in-depth analyses,

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opinions on the markets, political maneuvering,

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how the media is changing.

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Think of it as like your key cheat.

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To understanding what's happening, why it's happening,

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and what it all means

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without having to read through a ton of articles yourself.

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So good.

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Okay, so let's jump in.

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And maybe the best place to start

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is with this bumpy ride the economy seems to be on.

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Yeah, for sure.

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You can't miss a headline like Trump wrecks the economy.

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That's from Electoral Vote News.

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And they make some pretty strong arguments.

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Starting with the idea that trade policy right now

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is, well, all over the place.

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Okay.

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They focus on the tariffs,

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especially with Canada and Mexico.

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And this possible 250% dairy tariff,

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April 2nd, I think it was.

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Which right away, you have to wonder,

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what's the strategy there?

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I mean, is this actually about policy

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or is it about trying to strong arm these other countries,

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maybe force them to negotiate,

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but on terms that are more favorable to us?

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And it makes you think, how is Canada's new leader,

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the guy we'll talk about later,

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gonna react to this kind of tactic?

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But all this uncertainty that's back and forth,

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it's definitely not good for business.

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No, definitely not.

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And then there's this whole thing about the job market.

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And it's tied to this idea of DOGE, whatever that is.

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DOGE.

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Apparently it has to do with restructuring the government.

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Like a lot of job cuts, the numbers are pretty scary.

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60,000 federal employees possibly losing their jobs.

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And a huge jump in job losses last month, like 245%.

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The article said it's the worst February since 2009.

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And that kind of shock to the system,

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especially the public sector,

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it's gonna have ripple effects throughout the economy.

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It paints a pretty chaotic picture.

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And then you've got Trump himself on Fox News

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saying some things that seem to contradict

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what he used to say about the economy.

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Yeah, like that thing about,

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you can't really watch the stock market.

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That's a pretty big change.

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I mean, he used to talk about how great the market

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was doing all the time,

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especially in his first term

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and even earlier in this campaign.

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Exactly.

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So what's even more interesting

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is this new focus on the longterm.

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He even mentioned China

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and how they think in terms of like a hundred year plan.

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It's like a complete 180 from before

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when he was all about immediate results

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how the market was doing that day.

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He even admitted that there might be some disruption coming,

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maybe even a recession.

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Almost like he's trying to get ahead of bad news.

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Right. It's like saying,

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hey, don't blame me if things go south.

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But the Electoral Vote News article,

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they point out that kind of talk

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can also be seen as a lack of confidence.

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And the markets definitely reacted

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and not in a good way.

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Yeah, big time.

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I mean, over $1.75 trillion just gone, poof, in one day.

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The Dow down 900 points, NASDAQ down 4%,

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S&P 500 down 2.7%.

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That's basically wiping out every gain

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since he came into office.

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It's hard to wrap your head around that amount of money.

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Like $1.75 trillion,

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that's basically the entire GDP of Italy.

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Wow.

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It really shows how much of an impact this had.

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And it wasn't just the overall market.

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Tesla got hit hard too.

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Their stock dropped 15%.

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Oh.

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That's a $30 billion hit for Elon Musk.

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Makes you wonder, is this just about what Trump said?

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Yeah.

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Or is there something else going on?

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Are people starting to worry about Musk's leadership

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about what's gonna happen with Tesla?

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If that stock keeps going down,

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it could really mess things up for him.

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Yeah, talk about adding fuel to the Elon Musk fire.

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But of course, there's another side to the story.

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People like Representative Nicole Malia-Takas,

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she's blaming Biden's policies for the economic problems.

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Regulations, all the spending, interest rates.

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And the Electoral Vote News article, they're fair.

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They say, look, the economy's complicated,

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things don't happen overnight.

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They even bring up the Great Depression

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and how some of those problems actually started

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with the president before Hoover.

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But they're not buying Malia-Takas' argument completely.

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They're like, where's the evidence?

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The Inflation Reduction Act, that was a while ago.

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Why would things suddenly be going bad now because of that?

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Yeah, the timing seems off.

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It can't all be blamed on Biden, right?

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Right.

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And this is where things get really interesting.

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Because now we're talking about the idea

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of intentional market manipulation.

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Exactly.

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You sent those documents.

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Could all of this be intentional?

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And evidence supports the claim.

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They go deep into this theory.

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And the main guy behind this is Anthony Pompilano.

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He's saying basically that Trump and his Treasury Secretary,

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Scott Besant, might be doing this on purpose.

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They're trying to make the market go crazy.

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OK, why would they want to do that?

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What's the point?

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Well, here's how he explains it.

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The US has to refinance a ton of debt soon, something

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like $5.37 trillion.

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And if interest rates are lower, it

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will cost the government way less to borrow that money,

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billions of dollars less.

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OK, so the idea is, if they create enough uncertainty,

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make everyone nervous, investors will

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want to put their money in something safe, like Treasury

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bonds.

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And when more people want those bonds, the price goes up,

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which means the yield, the interest rate goes down.

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So they're basically trying to engineer

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a mini economic earthquake to make borrowing cheaper.

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Exactly.

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And Pompilano is saying that all this stuff, the terrorists,

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Trump's doom and gloom speeches, even

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Besant talking about needing a detox from government spending,

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it's all part of the plan.

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Oh, OK.

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Besant actually said the economy is

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hooked on government spending, needs a detox.

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So he's admitting that things might get rough in the short term.

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Wow.

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And Pompilano says that the tariffs specifically

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have made investors nervous, which, by the way,

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has caused the yield on the 10-year Treasury to go down.

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Right.

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It's fallen from almost 4.8% at the beginning of the year

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to about 4.2 now.

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And that kind of draw, it affects everything,

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mortgages, business loans, it's a big deal.

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Huge.

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And then there's what Trump has been saying, stuff like,

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nobody ever gets rich when interest rates are high.

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Pretty telling, don't you think?

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And he's not talking about the stock market as much anymore.

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Before he was all about that as proof

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that he was doing a good job.

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Now it seems like he's more focused on the bond market

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and trying to manage all that debt.

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OK, so it's all circumstantial.

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Right, there's no smoking gun.

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But when you put it all together,

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it does seem like it could be a deliberate strategy.

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They need to borrow money.

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They're using the tariffs and all this talk

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to spook the markets and the markets are reacting.

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It's definitely something to keep an eye on.

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No doubt, for sure.

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Now let's talk about something else

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that could throw a wrench into the economy.

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This whole government shutdown thing.

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Right, electoral vote news laid that out pretty clearly.

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Government funding's about to run out again.

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And as usual, nobody thinks they'll actually

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agree on a real budget.

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So Speaker Johnson is pushing for another continuing

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resolution.

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A CER, right.

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Exactly, a CER.

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Just to keep the lights on for a little while longer.

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But even a CER, it's not so simple these days.

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Not with the political climate being what it is.

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Yeah, how so?

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This isn't just extending the Biden budget like they used to.

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This CER has more money for things Republicans want,

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like defense and border security.

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But it cuts money for other programs.

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Things like programs for families and children,

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health care, even election security.

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And there's nothing in there for disaster relief.

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Which is concerning, because usually when there's

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a hurricane or a big earthquake,

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Congress is pretty quick to send money.

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You would think.

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But the Democrats aren't happy with this CER either, right?

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Nope.

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They're worried because it doesn't really limit

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how Trump and Musk can spend the money.

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It gives them a lot of leeway.

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And they're talking about some creative accounting,

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I guess you could call it, that would let them move money

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around even more.

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So it's supposed to be just keeping things the same.

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But it really favors Republicans and the mangy agenda.

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Interesting.

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And it sounds like the vote in the House is going to be close.

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Oh, yeah.

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Nailbiter.

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The Republicans have a tiny majority.

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Trump and Jefferies, the minority leader,

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they're both whipping votes like crazy.

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We know of at least one Republican who's a definite no.

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But there are a few Democrats who might vote yes.

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It could go either way.

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Really?

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Wow.

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And then if it passes the House, it goes to the Senate.

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And that's where things get really tricky for the Democrats.

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How so?

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They try to block it.

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If they do, and the government shuts down,

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they'll get blamed, especially with the markets

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already being so volatile.

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But if they don't, they have to swallow a bill that they hate.

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And it's technically an extension of their own party's budget.

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Senator Federman seems like he'll vote yes,

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but a bunch of other Democrats are going to vote no.

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And then you have Rand Paul.

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They'll probably vote no too, even though he's a Republican.

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It's a total mess.

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It sounds like it.

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Another shutdown cliffhanger.

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OK, well, let's move on to a different kind of instability.

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The media, it seems like things are changing there, too,

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in a big way.

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They are.

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Electoral vote news had some examples that really stood out.

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First, you have Ruth Marcus, a columnist at the Washington

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Post for a long time, very well respected.

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She resigned.

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She did.

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Yeah.

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Seems like it was over a column she wrote that was critical

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of Jeff Bezos, the owner of the post.

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They wouldn't publish it.

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When someone like that quits, you know something's up.

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It definitely makes you think about how much control owners

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have over what gets published, especially when a big name

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journalist feels like they have to leave.

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But then there's CNN.

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And they just gave Scott Jennings, one of their commentators,

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a new contract and a raise.

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Yeah, and Jennings is supposed to be the conservative voice

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there.

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But some of the things he said lately,

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well, they're pretty out there.

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The article gave some examples, like he said

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Trump can ignore court rulings if they

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don't come from the Supreme Court.

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And he defended Elon Musk in some pretty weird ways.

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And then there were these inflammatory comments

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about all kinds of social issues.

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OK.

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It's like he's just trying to provoke people,

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not have a real conversation.

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So electoral vote news didn't hold back.

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They called him a heel, like in professional wrestling.

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The bad guy who's there to get the crowd riled up.

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And they really went after CNN saying

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they're getting rid of good journalists, but paying this guy

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more to just spout off partisan talking points.

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It makes you question where the media is headed.

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And that leads right into the next part of the media

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discussion.

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Jonathan V last, he writes for the Bull Work.

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And he had this article called, All Media

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Will Be Forced to Choose.

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He says the media is splitting into three groups.

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State media, then this kind of neutral reporting,

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like you'd see for sports, and then pro-democracy media.

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OK.

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But he thinks that won't last.

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Eventually there'll just be two sides.

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Those who are against authoritarianism

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and those who are OK with it.

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Wow.

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That's a pretty grim picture of the future of the media.

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And it's interesting that he refuses to call Fox News.

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It's not just people on one side of the political spectrum

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who are worried about this.

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Mike Maznik from TechDirt, he wrote a piece about how they've

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basically become a democracy blog,

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even though that wasn't their original intention.

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He said it's because of what he sees

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as a mass destruction of fundamental concepts

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of democracy.

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Strong words.

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Very strong.

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And he's saying it's not just about normal political

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disagreements.

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It's about something much bigger, something

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that threatens innovation and freedom.

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So the bottom line here is, with all the political craziness,

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media outlets are having to figure out who they are.

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Do they stick to this idea of neutrality,

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or do they take a stand and defend democracy?

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It's a big shift from how the media used to be.

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It really is.

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OK, let's move on to some international news.

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It looks like Canada has a new leader,

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and it's a big change.

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Yeah.

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Mark Carney, he used to run the Bank of Canada

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and the Bank of England.

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Huge resume.

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He just won the leadership election

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for the Liberal Party, taking over for Justin Trudeau.

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That's a pretty big deal, considering he's never

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held elected office before.

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It is.

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But he's got all this experience in public service,

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and he's a big name in international finance.

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The Electoral Vote News article compared him to Trump.

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They said Carney is actually educated

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and knows how to run a business, not just pretending

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like Trump.

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OK, interesting.

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And it sounds like Carney is a centrist.

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He wouldn't join Harper's conservative government before.

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Even Christia Freeland, who was a big part of Trudeau's cabinet,

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she didn't do well in the leadership race.

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It seems like the Liberals are ready for something different.

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For sure.

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The article had a polling chart, and you

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can see this big swing towards the Liberals

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around January 20.

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So yeah, big change in public opinion up in Canada.

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And then there's Carney's victory speech.

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He came right out and said he's going to get rid of the carbon

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tax and stop the capital gains tax increase.

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So different economic policies for sure.

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But the most interesting part of the speech

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was when he went after Trump's trade policies, called them

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unjustified tariffs.

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And he was really strong in defending Canadian values.

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Health care is a right, multiculturalism,

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respecting First Nations and the French language.

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And that line, America is not Canada,

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and Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way,

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shape, or form.

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That was powerful.

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Really powerful.

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It's a clear message that he's going to lead differently

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than Trump.

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And with all this momentum, plus what they're

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calling the Trump bump in Canadian politics,

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it seems like there will be an election soon, maybe even

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next month.

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Wow.

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It's going to be fascinating to see how this affects things

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between the US and Canada, especially

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on trade and economics.

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00:13:56,300 --> 00:13:56,900
Absolutely.

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00:13:56,900 --> 00:13:58,060
Oh, and one last thing.

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Electoral vote news included a comment

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from a reader in Germany about how Friedrich Merce changed

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00:14:03,300 --> 00:14:06,100
his mind on the debt break after the election there.

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Just a reminder that big things are

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00:14:07,620 --> 00:14:09,020
happening all over the world.

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00:14:09,020 --> 00:14:11,020
So when you look at everything you sent us,

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00:14:11,020 --> 00:14:13,740
it paints a pretty complex picture.

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00:14:13,740 --> 00:14:17,260
There's the potential for real economic problems in the US,

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00:14:17,260 --> 00:14:20,420
maybe even caused on purpose to lower interest rates.

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00:14:20,420 --> 00:14:23,460
Then there's the political gridlock in Washington,

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always on the edge of another government shutdown.

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00:14:26,980 --> 00:14:29,140
And the media is in turmoil, trying

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to figure out how to handle all the polarization.

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00:14:31,700 --> 00:14:35,780
And now you have Canada, a new leader, a new direction,

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00:14:35,780 --> 00:14:37,900
a clear contrast with the US.

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00:14:37,900 --> 00:14:39,700
And remember, everything we talked about today,

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00:14:39,700 --> 00:14:41,020
it's all based on what you sent.

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00:14:41,020 --> 00:14:43,380
We tried to make sense of it all, see the connections,

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00:14:43,380 --> 00:14:45,060
without drowning you in the details.

416
00:14:45,060 --> 00:14:46,100
Exactly.

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00:14:46,100 --> 00:14:47,620
But it raises some big questions.

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00:14:47,620 --> 00:14:48,900
Questions for you to think about.

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00:14:48,900 --> 00:14:51,380
Like, with all these strategies and uncertainty,

420
00:14:51,380 --> 00:14:54,140
what's going to happen to the global economy in the long run?

421
00:14:54,140 --> 00:14:57,020
What's the role of a free press in a world where everyone's

422
00:14:57,020 --> 00:14:57,780
fighting?

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00:14:57,780 --> 00:14:59,580
And what kind of leadership do we really need

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00:14:59,580 --> 00:15:01,260
to navigate all of this?

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00:15:01,260 --> 00:15:03,420
These are the big takeaways from this deep dive.

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00:15:03,420 --> 00:15:05,180
And we hope you keep thinking about them.

427
00:15:05,180 --> 00:15:06,540
Because these aren't easy questions,

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00:15:06,540 --> 00:15:07,660
and they affect all of us.

429
00:15:07,660 --> 00:15:08,260
That's for sure.

430
00:15:08,260 --> 00:15:09,780
Thanks for sending us these sources.

431
00:15:09,780 --> 00:15:12,420
It's always fascinating to explore these things together.

432
00:15:12,420 --> 00:15:13,460
Yeah, definitely.

433
00:15:13,460 --> 00:15:14,500
Thanks for having me.

434
00:15:14,500 --> 00:15:16,780
Until next time, keep those brains buzzing,

435
00:15:16,780 --> 00:15:17,900
and those questions coming.

436
00:15:17,900 --> 00:15:19,060
Thank you.

