Hey everyone and welcome back for another deep dive.
Fun to-
Today we are taking a look at the political and economic landscape as of March 2025.
So wild time folks with Trump back in the White House and causing, well, quite a stir,
shall we say.
We've got some recent articles and research here.
And let me tell you, it's a lot.
His actions, you know, they're making waves everywhere from like global trade deals to,
seriously, our own wallets.
Yeah, you're not kidding.
I mean, it's his second term and Trump's still keeping everybody on their toes.
Every single day it seems like there's a new headline, some crazy policy, some unexpected
decision, trade wars, cryptocurrency, you name it.
So, so true.
Let's jump right in.
Let's talk about Trumponomics.
We've got a whole bunch of articles here about this tariff war he's got going on, this
back and forth thing with Canada and Mexico.
And honestly, it's been a total roller coaster.
It's really something, how these tariffs have been playing out.
Like the first round, it only lasted one day.
Trump just reversed course like that.
And then round two, that went on for, was it, two days before he changed his mind again.
It's like, what's going to happen with round three?
Anyone's guess at this point?
I know, right?
And here's another layer of crazy right now.
About half of the goods from Mexico and 40% from Canada are exempt.
But it's just temporary.
It's like everyone's holding their breath, businesses, markets, everyone's just in this
constant state of what's next.
Absolutely.
And that's the big question, isn't it?
What is driving all of this?
What is Trump's end game?
I mean, the research we've got here, it offers a few different theories.
Okay, lay it on us.
What are we talking about here?
Well, keep in mind, these are just theories.
Not necessarily facts.
But one theory is that this is all just political theater.
Trump trying to look tough to project strength and control on the world stage.
Okay, that makes some sense.
What else?
Another theory is magical thinking.
Trump believes tariffs will just magically fix everything.
No real plan, just tariffs.
Interesting.
Any other theories?
There are a couple of more concerning ones.
Some folks are suggesting that maybe cognitive decline is playing a role in his decision-making.
Oh, wow.
Okay, that's kind of a heavy thought.
Yeah, and then there's the unspeakable goals theory.
This one suggests that Trump might have some hidden motives, maybe involving classified
information or strategies he can't talk about publicly.
Wow, so many possibilities.
Okay, but let's bring it down to earth.
What does all of this mean for everyday folks like us?
Well, for one thing, it makes the US look bad, you know?
Unpredictable, unreliable.
That weakens our position globally and can hurt relationships with our allies.
And we're seeing some pushback too, right?
Especially from Canada.
I read about Canadian stores pulling US products, and British Columbia might even start charging
tolls on trucks going to Alaska.
And Canadians are canceling vacations to the US.
And get this, Ontario might keep tariffs on electricity, you know, the stuff they send
to the US, no matter what Trump does next.
Yeah, it's getting serious.
And it's not just Canada.
Republicans here at home are starting to speak out against Trump's approach too.
Really?
Like who?
Well, Senator John Tenet was on Fox Business expressing concerns about the tariffs, although
he did say falsely that tariffs don't cause inflation.
And Senator Rand Paul spoke to CNN about Kentucky businesses being hurt, like the bourbon industry,
prices going up, sales going down.
And then there's Senator Tom Tillis.
He actually suggested that Trump should maybe try a strategic retreat sometimes when he's
losing.
Wow.
That's pretty strong criticism coming from his own party.
It is.
It shows that this discomfort with Trump's trade tactics is growing.
And everyone's waiting to see what he'll do next.
April 2nd, right?
That's the deadline everyone's talking about.
Who knows what he'll do?
That is the big question, isn't it?
It feels like anything could happen.
More uncertainty, more disruption.
Okay, let's switch gears for a sec.
Can we talk about this Bitcoin thing?
Trump's executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and this whole summit he's
got planned, I gotta be honest, I'm totally lost on this one.
Yeah, I think a lot of people are.
It's been met with confusion and disapproval from pretty much everyone, voters, economists,
even people in the crypto world.
Well, I can see why voters are confused.
Most people don't really understand cryptocurrency.
And it kind of feels like Trump's maybe trying to line his own pockets, especially given
his history with crypto.
You're right.
And the economists are scratching their heads too.
They're asking why would the government hold something as risky as Bitcoin?
There was a quote in one of the articles from Stephen Siketty, an economist at Brandeis
University.
He called the whole thing absurd.
And it's funny, even the crypto folks aren't happy about this.
Right.
They're like, hey, governments stay out of our decentralized system.
Plus, when you dig into it, the policy itself is actually pretty weak.
So another one of those Trump announcements that sounds big, but it isn't really.
Pretty much.
What's interesting though is how some people are taking advantage of all this.
There was a story about this one guy who made like $7 million just by buying and selling
Bitcoin around the time of Trump's announcement.
So some people win big and everyone else has just left scratching their heads.
Exactly.
That's a wild world out there.
Okay.
Let's move on to something else that's been making headlines.
The State of the Union address and what happened with Representative Al Green.
Oh yeah.
That was something else.
I mean, Trump's speech had its usual share of controversial stuff.
Attacks, lies, you know, the drill.
But the big story was Rep Green.
Right.
He got kicked out of the House gallery during the speech.
The Republican said he was being disruptive.
And then they censured him.
Speaker Mike Johnson just pushed it right through.
It really shows you how much the political landscape has changed, you know, like decorum.
What is that?
Rep Green.
He wasn't bothered at all by the center.
He actually saying we shall overcome with some of his colleagues during the whole public
shaming thing.
Wow.
So he just completely turned it around.
Totally.
And here's the thing.
It wasn't just Republicans who disapproved.
Wait, really?
Yep.
Ten Democrats actually voted to center him.
And the Democratic leadership had to reprimand some other members for, you know, getting
a little carried away during the speech.
Ten Democrats.
Who were they?
Let me see.
I've got the names here somewhere.
Okay.
It was Ami Bara, Ed Case, Jim Costa, Laura Gillan, Marie Gluzonkamp Perez, Jim Himes,
Chrissy Hulahan, Marcy Keptor, Jared Moskovitz, and Tom Swazi.
Wow.
So even within the Democratic Party, there's disagreement on how to handle Trump.
Definitely makes things interesting.
How do you stay unified as a party when you're dealing with an administration that seems to
thrive on chaos?
It's a tough question.
Speaking of tough, let's talk about the Inflation Reduction Act.
I've been reading about how the Trump administration is going after it, especially that greenhouse
gas reduction fund.
This is where things get really concerning.
That fund, basically it's a green bank, right?
Yeah.
It was set up to encourage public-private partnerships, you know, to invest in clean
energy and things like that.
And you know what?
It's actually been really successful, creating jobs, reducing greenhouse gases, even in Republican
districts.
No, that was the problem.
Well, the acting U.S. attorney for D.C., Ed Martin, is trying to seize the money that's
already been given out through this fund.
He's saying there's an investigation, but there's no real evidence of any wrongdoing.
Sounds fishy.
Yeah.
And the sources don't hold back.
One of them called Martin so sleazy, he makes Nixon's plumbers look like saints.
And get this, we're talking about $20 billion.
That's how much they're trying to seize.
The biggest seizure like this before was like $4 billion in stolen Bitcoin back in 2022.
That's insane.
It is.
And there's been a ton of pushback.
Denise Chung, she was head of the criminal division, she refused to freeze the funds
and ended up quitting.
Prosecutors in Miami wouldn't even start a grand jury investigation?
And a judge denied the seizure warrant.
So they're really fighting this.
Oh yeah.
But here's the crazy part.
City bank, where the money's being held, they put an administrative freeze on the funds.
Like what?
Can they even do that?
It's kind of a legal gray area, but they did.
So now all that money is just stuck.
And it could really hurt the organizations that were counting on it, like bankruptcy
level hurt.
This whole thing is just wild.
It makes you wonder if they're just trying to use the legal system to score political
points.
It does raise some serious questions.
And it shows just how far the Trump administration might go to dismantle anything Obama did,
even if it means bending the rules.
That's kind of depressing, honestly.
Can we talk about something a little less heavy?
Sure.
Let's lighten things up a bit.
Okay.
I was reading about 538, the website, the one with all the data and analysis.
They're shutting down.
Yeah, I saw that.
It's a shame, but maybe not surprising.
Their business model was kind of tough, trying to do in-depth analysis and publish daily.
And I think they struggled to fit in with Disney ABC, the company that owned them.
Right.
I remember when they were all about sports and they shifted to politics and then all
the big names left like Nate Silver, Harry Anton, Walt Hickey, Mono Chalabi.
Yeah.
Definitely a loss for the media world.
Their polling aggregation, that was really valuable, especially during elections.
Agreed.
Okay.
Last story for this part of the deep dive.
Have you heard about this AI experiment the LA Times was doing?
Oh, yeah.
The one where the AI was supposed to offer different perspectives on opinion pieces.
Right.
Well, it didn't go so well.
Apparently, the AI wrote a commentary on a piece about the KKK, the Ku Klux Klan and
their history in Anaheim.
And get this, the AI actually downplayed the Klan's impact.
No way, seriously.
Yeah.
I know.
It said something like, while the KKK undoubtedly had a presence in Anaheim, its influence was
limited.
And then it said that most residents rejected its message of hate.
Wow, that's pretty tone deaf.
It just goes to show you, AI can be powerful, but it's not a replacement for actual
human intelligence and judgment, especially with sensitive topics.
Totally.
AI still has a lot to learn when it comes to nuance and context, especially with complex
social issues.
Yeah, big time.
It reminds me of this time when I was trying to use my AI assistant to order a pizza and
it ended up booking me a flight to PISA instead.
Oh.
Yeah, it was a whole mess.
But it just goes to show you, even the most advanced AI can still totally miss the mark.
For sure.
Like they say, garbage in, garbage out.
When the LA Times ended up pulling the AI commentary after just one day.
Makes sense.
It's a good reminder that we need to be careful about how we use AI, especially in sensitive
areas.
Okay, that wraps up part one of our deep dive.
It's been a lot, hasn't it?
Trade wars, rep agreeing, the Inflation Reduction Act 538 shutting down, AI gone wrong.
A lot to unpack, for sure.
But don't go anywhere, folks, because in part two we'll be talking about how some governors
are trying to help people affected by Elon Musk and Dogecoin of all things.
And we'll delve deeper into the challenges facing the Trump administration in its second
term.
Welcome back, everyone.
So last time we were in the thick of it, talking about all the fallout from Trump's, well,
let's call them unpredictable actions and all the uncertainties creating.
But for now, let's shift gears a little bit, shall we?
Sounds good.
Let's talk about these governors who are stepping up to deal with, well, this rather unusual
problem, helping people who've been, let's say, impacted by Elon Musk and Dogecoin.
Yeah, the whole DOGE thing is pretty wild.
For those who might not be totally up to speed, DOGE is a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin, but
it kind of started as a joke.
And then Elon Musk, Mr. Tesla in SpaceX, he starts tweeting about it, hyping it up.
And boom, chaos in the markets.
Some people made a killing, of course.
But plenty of others, they lost big time.
And it turns out that includes some government employees who, well, maybe they took Musk
a little too seriously and invested in Doge.
And that's where these governors come in.
Cathy Hutchul from New York, she's a Democrat.
And Glenn Yonkin from Virginia, a Republican.
They're both doing things to help those who are dealing with all this uncertainty and,
you know, potential job losses, all thanks to Musk's tweets.
It's pretty interesting to see this bipartisan effort.
I mean, they both have their eyes on bigger things, right?
But they both seem to realize that this is a real issue that needs to be addressed no
matter what part of you belong to.
For sure.
So Governor Hutchul, she's got this program called You're Hired, and it's aimed at getting
7,000 displaced workers into public sector jobs in New York.
They're even running these ads with the Statue of Liberty and the tagline, DOGE said you're
fired.
We say you're hired.
New York wants you.
catchy.
Right.
And then you've got Governor Yonkin.
He's coming at it from a more, I guess, Republican angle.
He's not pushing state government jobs as much.
He's more focused on connecting those former federal employees with private sector jobs
in Virginia.
Job fairs, skills training, a whole website that Virginia has jobs program.
Very on brand for each of them.
It is really good to see them both taking action and trying to help people get through
this whole mess.
A little bit of good news in the midst of all the craziness.
Speaking of craziness, let's maybe zoom out a bit and look at the bigger picture here.
What are the Trump administration's big policy priorities and what kind of challenges are
they facing?
Because as you can probably guess, they've got a lot on their plate.
Oh yeah, where do we even begin?
Well, immigration is a huge one.
They're using a mix of executive actions and legislation, but there's a really high risk
of legal challenges, especially when it comes to enforcement policies and birthright citizenship.
Yeah, that's not surprising.
Immigration has always been a hot button issue with Trump.
What about the economic side of things?
Right.
If you think immigration harder, it can have unintended consequences for businesses, especially
those that rely on immigrant labor, and then there's the impact on the overall economy.
Okay, makes sense.
Let's move on to trade then.
We already talked about those tariffs with Canada and Mexico, that whole roller coaster
ride, but what's the big picture approach here?
It seems like they're relying a lot on executive actions, things like tariffs, renegotiating
trade deals.
But as we saw, that can easily backfire, you get retaliation from other countries, more
uncertainty in the markets.
And the sources we looked at, they suggest that this might just be the tip of the iceberg.
Like there might be more tariffs coming, maybe targeting the European Union by April
2025.
Oh, that'll be interesting.
Okay, let's switch to energy.
What's happening on that front?
Well, the focus seems to be on executive orders that promote things like pipelines and drilling,
which unsurprisingly is causing some pushback from environmental groups.
Yeah, that was bound to happen.
So far, they've avoided any major legal challenges, but that could change pretty quickly.
What about regulations?
What's the strategy there?
Basically, they're trying to streamline things, make the government run smoother, get rid
of regulations they don't like, mostly through executive action.
But as you might expect, they're running into legal challenges left and right.
There are over two dozen cases pending right now about these regulatory rollbacks, everything
from funding cuts to firing federal employees.
It's like every time they make a move, somebody's there to challenge it.
Okay, what about taxes and spending?
Now, that's where things get really interesting.
Because the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the big tax cut from 2017, part of it is set to expire
at the end of 2025.
So what happens then?
Well, if they extend it, individual tax rates stay lower.
But if it expires, rates go up.
And then there's the whole debate about the estate, tax and deductions for business income.
That's going to be a huge fight in Congress.
Oh yeah, definitely.
And with the Republicans only having a slim majority in the House, it's not going to
be easy to get anything passed without some serious wheeling and dealing.
Exactly.
You've got the budget hawks, they want to slash spending.
And then you've got the moderates, they're worried about what voters will think, especially
with the 2026 midterms coming up.
And what about the Democrats?
What are they doing in all of this?
Well, they're kind of stuck on the sidelines, legislatively speaking.
But they're definitely hoping to take advantage of any Republican missteps, use it against
them in the next election.
Especially if the Republicans try to cut social programs, right?
That never goes over well with voters.
You said it.
Okay, let's not forget about the big elephants in the room, Social Security and Medicare.
Social Security is supposed to run out of money within the next 10 years.
But it doesn't look like any big changes are coming anytime soon.
It's that classic political dilemma.
Everybody wants to be the bad guy, especially when you're messing with programs that so
many people depend on.
And then there's Medicaid.
They're talking about adding work requirements, but that's facing a lot of pushback too.
It sounds like every major policy area is a minefield.
So what else should we be keeping an eye on?
What are some of the other big issues that are bubbling up?
Well, cryptocurrency regulation is a big one.
We talked about that Bitcoin reserve.
But it looks like the administration wants to go beyond just enforcement and actually
create some real policies for the crypto market.
So maybe some more clarity, some stability in the long run.
That's the hope.
And then there's industrial policy.
Oh yeah, what's going on with that?
The administration is really focused on boosting manufacturing here in the US.
But there are questions about whether some of their policies like the CAAPS Act, the
one that was supposed to bring semiconductor production back to the US, whether those are
actually going to work in the long run.
It's a complicated issue for sure.
All implications and all that.
Okay, so stepping back, what does all this mean for everyday people who are just trying
to understand what's going on in the world?
Well, it's clear from all the research that we're in a really uncertain time.
Trump is unpredictable and his actions have consequences that ripple out in all directions.
Republicans and Democrats, they're both facing huge challenges and the stakes are high for
everyone.
So many questions, right?
What's Trump going to do next with trade?
When the Democrats turn things around, what about these huge long-term problems like social
security running out of money and AI changing everything?
It's a lot to think about and these are questions we all need to be talking about figuring out
together.
This deep dive has been quite a ride, hasn't it?
We've covered a lot of ground, learned some fascinating things.
Hopefully our listeners are feeling more informed, more ready to navigate these crazy times.
I hope so.
It's so important to stay informed, be critical of the information you're getting and talk
about these things.
Have real conversations about the future we want.
Couldn't agree more.
Thanks for joining us for this deep dive.
Hope you found it useful, maybe even a little bit thought-provoking.
Absolutely.
Until next time, stay curious.
And we're back for the final part of our deep dive.
It's been a whirlwind, hasn't it?
Trump, trade wars, the Democrats, so much going on.
Yeah, absolutely.
There's lots to think about.
So let's dig a little deeper into some of those consequences from all that trade volatility
we were talking about earlier.
Remember those tariffs on Canada and Mexico?
Even though they didn't last long, they did trigger some retaliation from Canada.
Oh, right.
Yeah.
Didn't some Canadians start boycotting US products?
Yeah.
And British Columbia might actually impose a permanent toll on tracks traveling to Alaska.
And there's even talk of Ontario keeping tariffs on electricity, the stuff they send
to the US.
And they might just do that regardless of what Trump does.
Wow.
So even though the tariffs are gone, the bad feelings linger.
Exactly.
And it really highlights how these trade disputes, they can escalate so quickly and have real
world consequences even if they're short-lived.
And it's not just about the money, right?
Yeah.
It seems like there's this sense of, I don't know, hurt feelings, maybe even resentment,
especially from Canada, which has always been such a close ally.
You're right.
It's about relationships too.
These actions really show how much damage can be done to trust and diplomacy, even if
the actual policies don't last very long.
It's a reminder that those relationships, they're important.
They matter in the long run.
For sure.
Okay.
Let's switch gears now and talk about the Democrats.
What are their chances looking like for the 2026 elections?
Because let's face it, they're facing an uphill battle.
They are.
They lost their majority in both the House and the Senate in 2024.
So yeah, it's not going to be easy.
And the research we looked at, it points out that there just aren't that many competitive
House districts up for grabs anymore, so they're going to need a really solid strategy if they
want to win back control.
So what's the plan?
What are they thinking?
Well, one thing they could try is focusing on Republican vulnerabilities, hitting them
hard on issues like taxes and spending.
Especially if the Republicans decide to make big cuts to social programs.
That could really backfire with moderate voters and give the Democrats an opening.
It could, but even then, it's still a tough road ahead.
They need a message that's clear, compelling, and something that really resonates with voters.
And not just their base.
They've got to reach beyond that.
Right.
They need to win over some of those undecided voters.
Exactly.
And on top of that, they've got to deal with the divisions within their own party.
Remember what happened with Rep Green?
It's clear that there's no single unified approach to dealing with Trump and his tactics.
Yeah.
That was pretty messy.
So how do they find that balance?
That's the big question, isn't it?
How do you present a united front while still allowing for different viewpoints and approaches?
It's a tough one, for sure.
And then there's the whole social media factor.
Politics is just so polarized these days, and social media just amps it all up.
Oh, absolutely.
Yeah.
It's like trying to have a rational conversation and a hurricane.
It's so hard to break through all the noise and really connect with people on the issues
that matter.
So as we wrap up this deep dive, what are some of the big things our listeners should take
away from all of this?
Well, the sources we looked at, they paint a pretty clear picture.
We're living in a time of huge uncertainty and volatility.
Politically, economically, you name it.
Trump's actions are unpredictable, and the consequences, they reach far and wide.
And both Republicans and the Democrats are facing serious challenges.
The stakes are high for everyone.
Yeah.
And there are still so many unanswered questions.
Like what's Trump going to do next with trade?
Will the Democrats be able to bounce back?
What about these huge long-term problems like social security and AI?
Those are the things we all need to be thinking about, talking about, trying to figure out
together.
Well, this deep dive has been quite a journey.
That's for sure.
We've explored a ton of issues, uncovered some really interesting insights.
Hopefully our listeners are walking away feeling more informed, more prepared to navigate
these, shall we say, interesting times.
I hope so too.
Now more than ever, it's so important to stay informed, to be critical of the information
you're getting, and to have those tough conversations about the future we want.
Couldn't agree more.
Thanks for joining us for this deep dive.
We hope you found it informative and maybe even a little inspiring.
Absolutely.
And until next time, stay curious everyone!