1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,020 Welcome back everybody. 2 00:00:01,020 --> 00:00:04,880 For today's deep dive, you sent over some fascinating articles 3 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:07,420 about the US government budget showdown 4 00:00:07,420 --> 00:00:09,020 and also some market analysis. 5 00:00:09,020 --> 00:00:11,340 So should be an interesting one. 6 00:00:11,340 --> 00:00:12,660 Definitely a lot to unpack there. 7 00:00:12,660 --> 00:00:14,420 Yeah, so if you're trying to figure out 8 00:00:14,420 --> 00:00:17,100 what exactly went down in Washington, 9 00:00:17,100 --> 00:00:19,700 how the markets are reacting to it all, 10 00:00:19,700 --> 00:00:20,980 this is the place to be. 11 00:00:20,980 --> 00:00:23,740 Absolutely, and it's pretty remarkable. 12 00:00:23,740 --> 00:00:26,540 We almost had another government shutdown. 13 00:00:26,540 --> 00:00:28,060 You know, Congress really waited 14 00:00:28,060 --> 00:00:29,620 until the last possible second. 15 00:00:29,620 --> 00:00:30,620 Yeah, they really did. 16 00:00:30,620 --> 00:00:32,900 They passed that budget bill just in time, 17 00:00:32,900 --> 00:00:34,140 though I did think it was kind of weird 18 00:00:34,140 --> 00:00:36,020 that technically we're still gonna have a shutdown 19 00:00:36,020 --> 00:00:36,860 for a few hours. 20 00:00:36,860 --> 00:00:38,180 Yeah, a few hours during off hours. 21 00:00:38,180 --> 00:00:40,060 So should be pretty minimal impact. 22 00:00:40,060 --> 00:00:42,340 But yeah, this whole thing was a really close call 23 00:00:42,340 --> 00:00:45,180 and it really kind of highlights the, 24 00:00:45,180 --> 00:00:47,900 I guess the deep partisan divide in Congress. 25 00:00:47,900 --> 00:00:48,980 Yeah, for sure. 26 00:00:48,980 --> 00:00:51,940 This budget bill is basically just a temporary fix. 27 00:00:51,940 --> 00:00:54,100 It keeps the funding at the current levels 28 00:00:54,100 --> 00:00:56,660 only until March 14th of next year. 29 00:00:56,660 --> 00:00:58,220 So they're just kicking the can down the road 30 00:00:58,220 --> 00:00:59,260 a little bit longer. 31 00:00:59,260 --> 00:01:00,100 Yeah. 32 00:01:00,100 --> 00:01:00,940 Delaying the inevitable. 33 00:01:00,940 --> 00:01:01,760 Yeah. 34 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:03,140 So who are the real winners and losers 35 00:01:03,140 --> 00:01:05,300 in this budget deal? 36 00:01:05,300 --> 00:01:07,380 I mean, on the surface it looks like 37 00:01:07,380 --> 00:01:09,100 both the Democrats and Republicans 38 00:01:09,100 --> 00:01:10,980 got some of what they wanted. 39 00:01:10,980 --> 00:01:13,060 Yeah, there was a little something for everyone, 40 00:01:13,060 --> 00:01:14,380 it seems like. 41 00:01:14,380 --> 00:01:17,460 The Democrats got $100 billion in disaster aid, 42 00:01:17,460 --> 00:01:19,020 which was really important to them. 43 00:01:19,020 --> 00:01:19,860 Right. 44 00:01:19,860 --> 00:01:21,140 Republicans, on the other hand, 45 00:01:21,140 --> 00:01:23,380 they got 10 billion in farm aid. 46 00:01:23,380 --> 00:01:24,860 Something they've been pushing for. 47 00:01:24,860 --> 00:01:25,700 Okay. 48 00:01:25,700 --> 00:01:26,580 But you know, it's interesting 49 00:01:26,580 --> 00:01:28,540 is what didn't make it into the final bill. 50 00:01:28,540 --> 00:01:29,660 Oh, that's a good point. 51 00:01:29,660 --> 00:01:31,180 What kind of things were left out? 52 00:01:31,180 --> 00:01:33,500 Well, for one, the debt ceiling wasn't suspended, 53 00:01:33,500 --> 00:01:36,380 which was a major demand from former President Trump, 54 00:01:36,380 --> 00:01:39,420 and the bill also went through a huge reduction. 55 00:01:39,420 --> 00:01:42,660 It went from 1,500 pages all the way down to 500 pages. 56 00:01:42,660 --> 00:01:44,180 That's a lot of pork that got cut. 57 00:01:44,180 --> 00:01:46,260 Yeah, wow, that is quite the reduction. 58 00:01:46,260 --> 00:01:47,100 Yeah. 59 00:01:47,100 --> 00:01:48,980 Any specific cuts that stood out to you? 60 00:01:48,980 --> 00:01:50,300 Yeah, actually a few. 61 00:01:50,300 --> 00:01:54,180 One was that they tried to ease E15 gasoline sales 62 00:01:54,180 --> 00:01:55,540 and that ended up failing, 63 00:01:55,540 --> 00:01:57,540 which is bad news for Iowa corn farmers 64 00:01:57,540 --> 00:01:59,660 and of course for Senator Joni Ernst, 65 00:01:59,660 --> 00:02:00,940 who'd been advocating for it. 66 00:02:00,940 --> 00:02:01,780 Right. 67 00:02:01,780 --> 00:02:03,620 Then there were those proposed regulations 68 00:02:03,620 --> 00:02:06,900 on pharmacy benefit managers and social media companies, 69 00:02:06,900 --> 00:02:09,620 specifically those dealing with revenge porn. 70 00:02:09,620 --> 00:02:11,380 Well, those got taken out too. 71 00:02:11,380 --> 00:02:14,020 Senator Ted Cruz insists that he had nothing to do 72 00:02:14,020 --> 00:02:16,700 with Elon Musk and Donald Trump's business interests 73 00:02:16,700 --> 00:02:18,740 when it comes to those social media regulations 74 00:02:18,740 --> 00:02:21,900 being removed, but you know, it does make you think. 75 00:02:21,900 --> 00:02:23,660 Yeah, it really does. 76 00:02:23,660 --> 00:02:25,100 Speaking of Trump and Musk, 77 00:02:25,100 --> 00:02:26,820 their responses to this budget deal 78 00:02:26,820 --> 00:02:28,260 were pretty different. 79 00:02:28,260 --> 00:02:30,860 Trump, who seemed to be pushing for a shutdown at first, 80 00:02:30,860 --> 00:02:33,620 has been totally silent since it passed, 81 00:02:33,620 --> 00:02:35,220 almost like he's not happy with it. 82 00:02:35,220 --> 00:02:36,900 Yeah, very different from Elon Musk, 83 00:02:36,900 --> 00:02:40,340 who publicly praised Speaker Mike Johnson on ex Twitter, 84 00:02:40,340 --> 00:02:42,260 you know, for getting the deal done. 85 00:02:42,260 --> 00:02:45,580 He did end his post with kind of an ambiguous line though. 86 00:02:45,580 --> 00:02:48,020 He said, ball should now be in the dem court. 87 00:02:48,900 --> 00:02:51,020 Given that the Republicans will control both the House 88 00:02:51,020 --> 00:02:53,660 and the Senate and the presidency come January, 89 00:02:53,660 --> 00:02:55,900 it's hard to tell what exactly he means by that. 90 00:02:55,900 --> 00:02:56,740 Yeah. 91 00:02:56,740 --> 00:02:58,180 He's just trying to stir the pot a little bit. 92 00:02:58,180 --> 00:02:59,820 Well, he's been doing a lot of that lately. 93 00:02:59,820 --> 00:03:02,140 Do you see he also endorsed a German political party 94 00:03:02,140 --> 00:03:04,020 with ties to neo-Nazis? 95 00:03:04,020 --> 00:03:05,060 I did see that yet. 96 00:03:05,060 --> 00:03:08,180 But getting back to the budget deal, the clock is ticking. 97 00:03:08,180 --> 00:03:09,780 They've only got till March 14th 98 00:03:09,780 --> 00:03:12,300 until this temporary fix runs out, 99 00:03:12,300 --> 00:03:14,580 and it sounds like the next round of negotiations 100 00:03:14,580 --> 00:03:16,660 could be even more complicated. 101 00:03:16,660 --> 00:03:19,940 March 14th is definitely a date to circle on the calendar. 102 00:03:19,940 --> 00:03:21,180 You've got the Republican party 103 00:03:21,180 --> 00:03:23,340 dealing with these internal divisions. 104 00:03:23,340 --> 00:03:25,500 There's a potential leadership change, 105 00:03:25,500 --> 00:03:28,500 maybe a new speaker of the House who's inexperienced. 106 00:03:28,500 --> 00:03:30,860 Plus, last time around, everyone was in a rush 107 00:03:30,860 --> 00:03:32,380 to avoid a shutdown before the holidays, 108 00:03:32,380 --> 00:03:35,420 that saving Christmas pressure is gone now, 109 00:03:35,420 --> 00:03:37,540 which might make some groups really dig in 110 00:03:37,540 --> 00:03:39,900 and fight even harder for what they want. 111 00:03:39,900 --> 00:03:42,300 Yeah, and then of course you've got the wild cards, 112 00:03:42,300 --> 00:03:45,500 Trump and Musk, who always seem to enjoy shaking things up. 113 00:03:45,500 --> 00:03:47,780 Yeah, they always keep things interesting. 114 00:03:47,780 --> 00:03:50,140 Former President Trump may not be in office, 115 00:03:50,140 --> 00:03:51,820 but he's still incredibly influential 116 00:03:51,820 --> 00:03:52,820 in the Republican party. 117 00:03:52,820 --> 00:03:53,660 Absolutely. 118 00:03:53,660 --> 00:03:55,660 And Elon Musk is clearly getting more and more 119 00:03:55,660 --> 00:03:58,380 involved in politics, particularly within the GOP. 120 00:03:58,380 --> 00:04:00,260 His endorsement of Speaker Johnson 121 00:04:00,260 --> 00:04:03,020 definitely says something about his intentions, 122 00:04:03,020 --> 00:04:05,740 but it's hard to say what his real motives are. 123 00:04:05,740 --> 00:04:08,700 Yeah, his actions always seem to grab headlines. 124 00:04:08,700 --> 00:04:12,100 And those headlines sometimes make you question his judgment. 125 00:04:12,100 --> 00:04:15,100 Like recently endorsing that German political party 126 00:04:15,100 --> 00:04:18,340 linked to neo-Nazis, that race of eyebrows. 127 00:04:18,340 --> 00:04:19,940 It's a little concerning, to be honest. 128 00:04:19,940 --> 00:04:22,020 I can't help but think all this political drama 129 00:04:22,020 --> 00:04:24,700 must be affecting how consumers feel. 130 00:04:24,700 --> 00:04:26,700 If people are unsure about what's going to happen, 131 00:04:26,700 --> 00:04:28,860 they're probably less likely to spend money, 132 00:04:28,860 --> 00:04:31,060 which could have a big impact on the whole economy. 133 00:04:31,060 --> 00:04:32,460 Right, and the Schwab report actually 134 00:04:32,460 --> 00:04:34,180 touches on those concerns too. 135 00:04:34,180 --> 00:04:36,460 They're saying there's a chance of increased volatility 136 00:04:36,460 --> 00:04:38,740 in the markets because of all this political 137 00:04:38,740 --> 00:04:40,780 and economic uncertainty. 138 00:04:40,780 --> 00:04:42,500 They also talk about the possible impact 139 00:04:42,500 --> 00:04:43,980 of rising interest rates. 140 00:04:43,980 --> 00:04:46,980 That's right, they specifically mention that as a concern, 141 00:04:46,980 --> 00:04:48,980 especially for certain businesses and industries 142 00:04:48,980 --> 00:04:51,700 that are really sensitive to interest rate changes. 143 00:04:51,700 --> 00:04:55,140 Exactly, rising interest rates kind of have this domino effect. 144 00:04:55,140 --> 00:04:56,780 They make it pricier for companies 145 00:04:56,780 --> 00:05:00,260 to borrow money, which can slow down growth and investment. 146 00:05:00,260 --> 00:05:02,100 But at the same time, rising interest rates 147 00:05:02,100 --> 00:05:04,300 make bonds look better to investors, 148 00:05:04,300 --> 00:05:07,700 which might mean money gets pulled out of the stock market. 149 00:05:07,700 --> 00:05:10,500 So it sounds like we're in a bit of a waiting game. 150 00:05:10,500 --> 00:05:13,140 Inflation is cooling off a little, which is good news, 151 00:05:13,140 --> 00:05:15,620 but there's still a lot of uncertainty in the air 152 00:05:15,620 --> 00:05:18,660 politically, economically, and how consumers will react 153 00:05:18,660 --> 00:05:20,220 to all this. 154 00:05:20,220 --> 00:05:22,100 What are your thoughts on where things might go 155 00:05:22,100 --> 00:05:23,300 in the next few months? 156 00:05:23,300 --> 00:05:24,820 Well, it really does feel like we're watching 157 00:05:24,820 --> 00:05:27,700 some kind of financial drama unfold. 158 00:05:27,700 --> 00:05:31,620 And in the background, you've got this political thriller 159 00:05:31,620 --> 00:05:33,940 of the budget battle going on. 160 00:05:33,940 --> 00:05:36,580 And the stakes are really high. 161 00:05:36,580 --> 00:05:38,820 The decisions that get made the next few months, 162 00:05:38,820 --> 00:05:42,380 both by politicians and regular people like you listening, 163 00:05:42,380 --> 00:05:44,580 they're going to have a real impact on the economy. 164 00:05:44,580 --> 00:05:45,580 It's a lot to take in. 165 00:05:45,580 --> 00:05:47,100 So let's try to connect the dots a bit. 166 00:05:47,100 --> 00:05:49,660 We have this March 14th deadline coming up 167 00:05:49,660 --> 00:05:52,220 when the temporary budget deal runs out. 168 00:05:52,220 --> 00:05:54,580 What could make these next budget negotiations 169 00:05:54,580 --> 00:05:56,620 even harder than the ones we just went through? 170 00:05:56,620 --> 00:05:57,900 Yeah, well, as we've talked about, 171 00:05:57,900 --> 00:06:00,180 the Republican Party is really divided right now. 172 00:06:00,180 --> 00:06:03,100 They're having this big internal power struggle. 173 00:06:03,100 --> 00:06:05,340 It's not even clear who's going to come out on top. 174 00:06:05,340 --> 00:06:07,540 And on top of that, we might have a brand new speaker 175 00:06:07,540 --> 00:06:09,420 at the house who doesn't have a lot of experience. 176 00:06:09,420 --> 00:06:11,500 That definitely adds to the uncertainty. 177 00:06:11,500 --> 00:06:12,820 Exactly. 178 00:06:12,820 --> 00:06:15,820 A new speaker who's not familiar with all the ins and outs 179 00:06:15,820 --> 00:06:19,540 of how things work in Congress could really complicate things. 180 00:06:19,540 --> 00:06:21,580 And remember last time everyone was so focused 181 00:06:21,580 --> 00:06:23,940 on avoiding a shutdown before Christmas? 182 00:06:23,940 --> 00:06:26,260 You know, they had that saving Christmas pressure. 183 00:06:26,260 --> 00:06:27,540 This time that's gone. 184 00:06:27,540 --> 00:06:30,700 So certain groups might feel more bolden to dig in 185 00:06:30,700 --> 00:06:32,420 and really fight for what they want. 186 00:06:32,420 --> 00:06:35,620 And then there's always Trump and Musk, those wild cards. 187 00:06:35,620 --> 00:06:37,220 They always seem to like shaking things up. 188 00:06:37,220 --> 00:06:39,660 Oh yeah, they definitely keep things interesting. 189 00:06:39,660 --> 00:06:41,700 You know, former President Trump might not be in office 190 00:06:41,700 --> 00:06:43,380 anymore, but he's still a major force 191 00:06:43,380 --> 00:06:44,380 in the Republican Party. 192 00:06:44,380 --> 00:06:45,420 For sure. 193 00:06:45,420 --> 00:06:47,220 And Elon Musk is getting more and more involved 194 00:06:47,220 --> 00:06:48,540 in politics these days, 195 00:06:48,540 --> 00:06:49,740 especially with the Republicans. 196 00:06:49,740 --> 00:06:51,460 Yeah, his endorsement of Speaker Johnson 197 00:06:51,460 --> 00:06:53,020 was a pretty clear sign of that, 198 00:06:53,020 --> 00:06:56,300 but it's still hard to figure out what his real goals are. 199 00:06:56,300 --> 00:06:58,740 Yeah, his actions tend to make a lot of noise. 200 00:06:58,740 --> 00:07:00,860 And sometimes, you know, those headlines 201 00:07:00,860 --> 00:07:02,740 make you wonder about his judgment. 202 00:07:02,740 --> 00:07:04,740 Like when he endorsed that German political party 203 00:07:04,740 --> 00:07:07,060 with connections to neo-Nazis, 204 00:07:07,060 --> 00:07:09,300 that was definitely an eyebrow razor. 205 00:07:09,300 --> 00:07:12,340 Yeah, that was a bit unsettling, to be honest. 206 00:07:12,340 --> 00:07:14,220 I have this feeling that all this political drama 207 00:07:14,220 --> 00:07:16,620 has got to be affecting how consumers are feeling. 208 00:07:16,620 --> 00:07:17,820 It makes sense. 209 00:07:17,820 --> 00:07:19,940 I mean, if people aren't sure about the future, 210 00:07:19,940 --> 00:07:23,260 they're probably less likely to spend money. 211 00:07:23,260 --> 00:07:26,020 And that could have a domino effect on the entire economy. 212 00:07:26,020 --> 00:07:27,140 That's a valid point. 213 00:07:27,140 --> 00:07:30,500 And the Schwab Report actually mentions those concerns too. 214 00:07:30,500 --> 00:07:32,860 They're warning about the possibility of the markets 215 00:07:32,860 --> 00:07:35,740 becoming more volatile because of all this political 216 00:07:35,740 --> 00:07:37,420 and economic uncertainty. 217 00:07:37,420 --> 00:07:39,580 And, you know, the Schwab Report also highlights 218 00:07:39,580 --> 00:07:42,420 the potential impact of interest rates going up. 219 00:07:42,420 --> 00:07:45,260 Right, they specifically mentioned that as a concern, 220 00:07:45,260 --> 00:07:47,180 especially for businesses and industries 221 00:07:47,180 --> 00:07:49,860 that are really sensitive to interest rate changes. 222 00:07:49,860 --> 00:07:51,580 Exactly. When interest rates rise, 223 00:07:51,580 --> 00:07:53,580 it kind of creates this chain reaction. 224 00:07:53,580 --> 00:07:55,700 It gets more expensive for companies to borrow money, 225 00:07:55,700 --> 00:07:58,140 which can slow down growth and investment. 226 00:07:58,140 --> 00:08:00,140 And then at the same time, rising interest rates 227 00:08:00,140 --> 00:08:02,380 make bonds more appealing to investors. 228 00:08:02,380 --> 00:08:04,500 So money might start flowing out of the stock market. 229 00:08:04,500 --> 00:08:06,220 So it sounds like the next few months 230 00:08:06,220 --> 00:08:07,900 could be a bit of a bumpy ride. 231 00:08:07,900 --> 00:08:10,700 Inflation is starting to cool down, which is good. 232 00:08:10,700 --> 00:08:12,780 But there's still so much uncertainty 233 00:08:12,780 --> 00:08:15,180 about everything politically, economically, 234 00:08:15,180 --> 00:08:17,940 and how consumers will react to it all. 235 00:08:17,940 --> 00:08:20,500 What are your thoughts on where things might be headed? 236 00:08:20,500 --> 00:08:23,820 You know, it's really amazing how much influence 237 00:08:23,820 --> 00:08:26,580 people like Trump and Musk have, 238 00:08:26,580 --> 00:08:29,540 even when they're not officially in politics. 239 00:08:29,540 --> 00:08:31,500 Their actions and what they say 240 00:08:31,500 --> 00:08:34,020 can really move markets and change public opinion. 241 00:08:34,020 --> 00:08:35,860 It's like something we wouldn't have even imagined 242 00:08:35,860 --> 00:08:36,700 a few years ago. 243 00:08:36,700 --> 00:08:39,780 It's a real change in how power works in our society, right? 244 00:08:39,780 --> 00:08:41,620 I mean, we're used to thinking of politicians 245 00:08:41,620 --> 00:08:43,900 as the ones who make change happen. 246 00:08:43,900 --> 00:08:45,740 But now you have these tech billionaires 247 00:08:45,740 --> 00:08:48,460 with their huge platforms and millions of followers 248 00:08:48,460 --> 00:08:49,980 who can have a huge influence. 249 00:08:49,980 --> 00:08:51,220 Yeah, it's a whole new world. 250 00:08:51,220 --> 00:08:53,220 And it's hard to say what's gonna happen next. 251 00:08:53,220 --> 00:08:55,460 But one thing's for sure, we can't ignore it. 252 00:08:55,460 --> 00:08:58,300 We need to understand how these new power players work 253 00:08:58,300 --> 00:09:00,180 and how what they do can affect us. 254 00:09:00,180 --> 00:09:02,420 So let's bring this back to you, the listener. 255 00:09:02,420 --> 00:09:03,940 Why should you care about all this stuff 256 00:09:03,940 --> 00:09:06,900 about politics and the economy and the markets? 257 00:09:06,900 --> 00:09:09,180 How does it relate to your everyday life? 258 00:09:09,180 --> 00:09:11,380 Well, for one thing, it can help you understand 259 00:09:11,380 --> 00:09:12,700 the news better. 260 00:09:12,700 --> 00:09:15,420 You know, figure out what's really going on in the world. 261 00:09:15,420 --> 00:09:17,140 But it goes even deeper than that. 262 00:09:17,140 --> 00:09:19,500 These things directly affect your money, 263 00:09:19,500 --> 00:09:22,020 your job, even your retirement. 264 00:09:22,020 --> 00:09:24,540 Yeah, like if you're invested in the stock market, 265 00:09:24,540 --> 00:09:27,140 understanding these political and economic trends 266 00:09:27,140 --> 00:09:29,860 can help you make smarter decisions about your investments. 267 00:09:29,860 --> 00:09:31,100 Exactly. 268 00:09:31,100 --> 00:09:32,780 If you know that rising interest rates 269 00:09:32,780 --> 00:09:34,500 might hurt certain industries 270 00:09:34,500 --> 00:09:35,940 or that political uncertainty 271 00:09:35,940 --> 00:09:38,060 could make the market more volatile, 272 00:09:38,060 --> 00:09:39,900 you can adjust your portfolio to match. 273 00:09:39,900 --> 00:09:41,900 It's about being proactive and informed 274 00:09:41,900 --> 00:09:44,020 instead of just reacting to things 275 00:09:44,020 --> 00:09:45,540 after they've already happened. 276 00:09:45,540 --> 00:09:46,380 That's right. 277 00:09:46,380 --> 00:09:47,940 Knowledge is power. 278 00:09:47,940 --> 00:09:49,540 And that's especially true today 279 00:09:49,540 --> 00:09:52,420 when things are so complicated and changing so fast. 280 00:09:52,420 --> 00:09:53,780 Well said. 281 00:09:53,780 --> 00:09:55,620 So as we wrap up this deep dive, 282 00:09:55,620 --> 00:09:58,660 I want to leave you with something to think about. 283 00:09:58,660 --> 00:10:01,300 How do you think people like Trump and Musk, 284 00:10:01,300 --> 00:10:03,460 especially with Musk getting more involved 285 00:10:03,460 --> 00:10:04,820 with the Republicans, 286 00:10:04,820 --> 00:10:07,260 how do you think they're going to shape politics 287 00:10:07,260 --> 00:10:09,180 and the economy going forward? 288 00:10:09,180 --> 00:10:12,420 And how might that affect your own financial decisions? 289 00:10:12,420 --> 00:10:14,100 It's definitely something to consider 290 00:10:14,100 --> 00:10:15,260 as we head into the new year. 291 00:10:15,260 --> 00:10:16,100 Absolutely. 292 00:10:16,100 --> 00:10:16,940 Thanks for listening everybody. 293 00:10:16,940 --> 00:10:18,580 And until next time, stay curious, 294 00:10:18,580 --> 00:10:19,940 stay informed and stay engaged. 295 00:10:19,940 --> 00:10:39,940 See ya.