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welcome to money is freedom

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a podcast

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exploring how finance and freedom connect in our lives

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created from thoughtful research

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and narrated by Notebook LM AI

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this series brings you clear

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meaningful insights into finance and beyond

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welcome to episode 38 the Fed just hit the brakes

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sort of QT more like QT light

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the feds slowing its balance sheet run off by 50%

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and markets are loving it well

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kind of

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in this episode we break down what the heck is going on

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why Jerome Powell is suddenly acting chill

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and what this all means for your portfolio

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your crypto bags and your sanity

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let's ride the liquidity wave

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alright so you know

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you sent this over and I was like whoa

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the fit is slowing down QT yeah

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so that's something we gotta dig into like

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what does that even mean yeah

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so that's what we're gonna do today

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you know you and I were gonna take a deep dive into

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what's going on with this whole Fed decision to

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to slow down quantitative tightening right

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why they're doing it what it might mean for the markets

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you know for your stocks for your crypto

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everything like that for sure

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we got a bunch of articles uh

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it's really good market analysis

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awesome and uh yeah

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let's just jump into it sounds good

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so maybe just to you know

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level set for everyone yeah

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what is quantitative titing

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like how would you explain that to someone yeah

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so QT it's essentially the opposite of Q E

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which we've talked about a bunch right

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quantitative ething

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and this is the Fed shrinking their balance sheet

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so okay they

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you know

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they've bought all these assets over the years to

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to help the economy

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and now they're sort of unwinding that right

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and yeah this

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this is a big deal

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because it's the first major change to this policy

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since they started in 2022

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oh wow

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so like they've been just going at it yeah

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just full scheme ahead full scheme ahead

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and now now they're tapping the brakes a little bit

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okay so what are they actually gonna do differently

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like what did they announce

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so according to AP News they're going to reduce

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the monthly cap for Treasury runoff from six

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billion dollars down to 30 billion okay

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so they're gonna cut it in half wow

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and that starts in June

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and the cap for mortgage backed securities

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those are gonna stay the same for now okay

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so just the the Treasury is getting cut in half

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exactly interesting

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okay so

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so why now like why

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why do they making this move

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like what's what's going on

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so there's a few reasons uh

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one of the big ones that our sources are pointing to

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especially in the analysis is liquidity management okay

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so the Fed is

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really worried about reserves becoming too scarce okay

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remember what happened in the repo market back in 2019

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when uh

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you know there was a shortage of reserves

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and that caused all sorts of problems

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yeah it's like a little mini crisis

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yeah they

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they don't wanna repeat that right

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so okay

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so how does slowing down QT help with that

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so as the feds balance sheet shrinks

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bank reserves decrease right

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okay and then on top of that

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we've got this declining usage of the ONRP

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the overnight reverse repo facility

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okay

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and that's basically like a parking lot for extra cash

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you know right

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money market funds park their money there overnight at

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gotcha when that usage goes down

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it means there's less surplus cash in the system

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makes sense

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which puts more pressure on those bank reserves

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so it's like they're losing their cushion a little bit

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okay so that's making them a little nervous exactly

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were there any other

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like factors pushing them in this direction

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yeah for sure

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Reuters was talking about some concerns

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with the Treasury market oh really

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specifically with these off the run issues

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what does that mean so

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these are Treasury bombs that aren't

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the most recently issued ones

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oh okay

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so they're not traded as frequently right

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it can be harder to buy or sell them quickly

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quickly and that can create some instability

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oh so less liquid

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exactly

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and the sources also mentioned some worries about

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basis trades

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which are these like complex bets on similar assets

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oh well okay

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and if those go wrong

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it can cause a lot of problems in the market

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so all of this is just adding to this overall anxiety

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about liquidity

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and how well the markets are gonna function

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it's like they're trying to

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you know just keep everything running smoothly

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yeah exactly

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okay so it sounds like they were seeing some red flags

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and they decided to like

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you know kind of ease off a little bit right now

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I gotta say this this move

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didn't really come as a surprise to a lot of people

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right right

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like

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it seems like the market was kind of expecting this why

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why do you think that is well

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you know it's an election year

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oh yeah

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and the Fed doesn't wanna rock the boat too much

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they want things to be stable

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yeah

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and big policy changes can cause a lot of volatility

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makes sense plus

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Powell has been using some pretty cautious language

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lately oh yeah

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like what talking a lot about financial stability

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and a soft landing for the economy

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right

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even though he's not saying they're gonna cut rates

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right the market is reading between the lines a bit

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you know taking the hints

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exactly and

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Marketwatch pointed out that

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a lot of analysts were saying that QT

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was moving faster than expected really

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and they were worried about it

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squeezing those bank reserves too quickly

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wow so

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I think

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the market was picking up on all of these signals

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yeah

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it sounds like Powell was kind of laying the groundwork

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yeah maybe dropping some hints

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okay so let's talk about the market reaction

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like what happened when they made this announcement

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well the stock market loved it really

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yeah AP News said the SMP 500

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the NASDAQ the Dao all jumped over 1% that day

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wow that's a pretty big jump

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yeah they saw this as a good thing for a liquidity

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you know

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less risk of those bank reserves getting too strained

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right

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but some of those games did fade a bit the next day

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oh really

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yeah I think

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people started to think about the longer term

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implication yeah

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makes sense okay

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what about bonds what happened there

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the 10 year Treasury yield dropped to like 4.24% okay

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there's two reasons for that 1

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less QT

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means less supply of Treasuries hitting the market

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right and 2

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it's seen as a sign that the Fed might be getting more

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dubbish okay

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corporate bonds reacted similarly

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you know

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investment grade bond DTFs like LQD saw price jump

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which means yields went down

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gotcha but again

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that enthusiasm cooled off a bit

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as investors reassessed you know

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what this might mean for future rate cuts right

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so kind of like the same pattern as stocks

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exactly initial excitement

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then a little more caution

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yeah okay

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now what about crypto land

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like what happened with Bitcoin and all that

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that was interesting

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bitcoin and Ethereum were pretty steady

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actually with a slight upward trend

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okay it seems like that macro

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liquidity

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environment is still a big driver for those assets

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especially for the big institutional investors right

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so they're paying attention to this Fed stuff

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oh yeah for sure

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okay so we've talked about what the Fed did

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why they did it how the market reactive

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now let's talk about what this could mean for

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you know your portfolio okay

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like what's the implications for stocks

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so generally slower QT is good for stocks

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how so it means more liquidity in the system right

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and that tends to boost prices

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especially for those growth stocks

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like in the tech sector why tech specifically

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those are considered hydration assets

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because their value is more tied to future earnings

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okay

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and future earnings are sensitive to interest rates

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which are influenced by QT

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I see okay

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so more liquidity more money flowing into stocks

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potentially higher prices exactly

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what about valuations

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like how does this affect how expensive stocks look

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so that's where the lower bond yields come in

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okay when treasure yields go down

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it actually makes stocks little more attractive really

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how so it increases the equity risk premium

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what's that that's the extra return

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investors expect for holding riskier assets

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like stocks compared to safe assets like bonds

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so when that premium is higher

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it can justify higher price to earnings ratios

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especially for those growth companies

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interesting

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so lower bond yields actually make stocks look cheaper

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in a way yeah

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you could say that it creates a valuation tailwind okay

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that's a good way to put it

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and what about like the overall stability of the market

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how does this affect that

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well slowing down Q t reduces uncertainty

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and the risk of those sudden shocks right

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which can help to keep voltility down okay

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so less chance of those big swings in the market

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yeah potentially

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okay so overall

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it sounds like this is pretty good news for stocks

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at least in the short term

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yeah I think that's fair to say

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okay now let's talk about crypto

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like what does this mean for bitcoin

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and the whole crypto world

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you know that the sources really emphasize this

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especially the one about the crypto market cycle

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okay there's a very strong link between

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bitcoin and the overall crypto market

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and these macro liquidity trends right

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when the Fed is easing or even just slowing down

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tightening it's good for risk on assets

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and crypto's definitely risk on

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oh yeah

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for sure okay

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so this slowdown could be good for crypto too

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absolutely and you know

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you've got this whole thing with spot Bitcoin

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Epfs developing rights

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bringing more institutional money into the space

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yeah and now

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you've got this more accommodative stance from the Fed

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feels like a double whammy of good news

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it could be a very bullish setup

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you know if liquidity keeps expanding

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we could see a new up trend

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wow okay

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so maybe crypto's back on the menu potentially

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alright so it sounds

282
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like the market is seeing this as a sign that

283
00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:43,066
things are changing like a fetish

284
00:08:43,066 --> 00:08:44,266
shifting gears a bit yeah

285
00:08:44,266 --> 00:08:45,300
I think that's a good way to put it

286
00:08:45,300 --> 00:08:46,666
it's not Q E right

287
00:08:46,666 --> 00:08:49,000
they're not actively pumping money into the system

288
00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:50,300
right but this slowdown

289
00:08:50,300 --> 00:08:52,200
combined with all the talk about rate cuts

290
00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:53,233
later this year

291
00:08:53,300 --> 00:08:56,600
it's creating this kind of quasi dovish environment

292
00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,400
I like that term quasi dovish

293
00:08:58,400 --> 00:08:59,533
and historically

294
00:08:59,533 --> 00:09:02,500
those kinds of conditions have been really good for

295
00:09:02,500 --> 00:09:03,400
risk assets

296
00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:04,933
like crypto interesting

297
00:09:04,933 --> 00:09:06,266
okay so to wrap this all up

298
00:09:06,266 --> 00:09:08,266
what's the big take away for our listeners

299
00:09:08,366 --> 00:09:10,600
the main thing is that the Fed slowing down

300
00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:14,100
Q t is a strong signal that this aggressive

301
00:09:14,100 --> 00:09:16,666
tightening phase is probably coming to an end

302
00:09:16,766 --> 00:09:17,933
they haven't cut rates yet

303
00:09:17,933 --> 00:09:21,200
but the market is taking this as a dubish sign

304
00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:22,666
so they're reading between the lines

305
00:09:22,666 --> 00:09:23,300
yeah they're saying

306
00:09:23,300 --> 00:09:25,266
the Fed is worried about overtightening

307
00:09:25,266 --> 00:09:27,166
and potentially causing problem right

308
00:09:27,166 --> 00:09:28,766
they gotta be careful exactly

309
00:09:28,766 --> 00:09:30,566
so for everyone listening out there

310
00:09:30,666 --> 00:09:32,600
you know this raises some big questions for you

311
00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:33,333
definitely like

312
00:09:33,333 --> 00:09:35,333
what does this shift in liquidity mean

313
00:09:35,333 --> 00:09:36,266
for your investments

314
00:09:36,266 --> 00:09:37,866
how does all this stuff with the Fed

315
00:09:37,866 --> 00:09:39,500
and the stock market in crypto

316
00:09:39,533 --> 00:09:41,033
all tied together right

317
00:09:41,066 --> 00:09:43,400
and maybe it's worth looking back at history

318
00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:43,766
you know

319
00:09:43,766 --> 00:09:46,533
seeing what happened during other waziedovish periods

320
00:09:46,533 --> 00:09:47,900
that's a great idea yeah

321
00:09:47,900 --> 00:09:49,400
see if we can learn anything from the past

322
00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:50,566
yeah awesome

323
00:09:50,566 --> 00:09:52,066
well thanks for breaking all that down for us

324
00:09:52,066 --> 00:09:53,866
that was super helpful my pleasure

325
00:09:53,866 --> 00:09:54,466
alright everyone

326
00:09:54,466 --> 00:09:55,700
until next time see ya

327
00:09:55,700 --> 00:09:57,366
happy investing bye