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a podcast
exploring how finance and freedom connect in our lives
created from thoughtful research
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meaningful insights into finance and beyond
episode 36 examines the current cryptocurrency market
noting price dips in Bitcoin
Ethereum and Solana and extreme fear in the market
attributed to hacks and geopolitical factors
it draws parallels
between the current bitcoin cycle and 2017
highlighting similarities in market corrections
institutional involvement and altcoin volatility
hey everyone welcome to another deep dive into crypto
yeah today
we're tackling a question
I know a lot of you have been thinking about
are we seeing your repeat of 2017
that crazy year of massive highs
and then devastating lows
to try and figure this out
we've got a ton of stuff to look at today
real time market data of course
some insights from Crypto Daily
Money is freedom and even a chart analysis
so much to unpack right
it's gonna be a good one
I think the question on everyone's mind is
are we on the verge of another crypto boom
or are we headed for a bust
exactly so
let's start with what's actually happening
in the market right now
things are uh definitely a bit shaky
bitcoin has dipped below $90,000
for the first time since like
mid January
so that a drop of almost 7% in just 24 hours
it's a sea of red out there ethereum
and Solana are down too over 7%
4% each there's a lot of unease in the market for sure
okay so we see the numbers
but like why what's actually causing this dip
Crypto
Daily mentions a couple things that might be spooking
investors well one
there's news of a massive ether hack on the BI bit
exchange we're talking like
a potential 1.5 billion dollar stolen
wow that kind of news
always sends chills down the spines of investors
I bet makes sense
a hack that big
it would make anyone nervous about security
but this isn't happening in isolation right
there are other factors too
you got it the crypto market doesn't exist in a vacuum
you know
we're seeing wider sell offs across all markets
yeah driven by global uncertainty
it seems like yeah
political tensions
economic worries the whole shebang
it all just creates this perfect storm
that pushes everything downwards right
crypto included so we've got some turbulence for sure
but here's where things get interesting
the 2017 parallels remember that year
bitcoin shot up then crashed
taking all coins down with it
oh yeah
some analysts are saying
we're seeing a repeat of those patterns right now
and there's evidence to back that up
take a look at this chart analysis from image dot PDF
what's striking is the pattern of multiple
28% or greater pullbacks
followed by rallies to new highs
just like we saw in 2017 okay
I'm looking at the chart now
what are you seeing
that's setting off alarm bells for people
what's the key takeaway here
well first
those pullbacks are significant
we're not talking about tiny dips here
these are serious drops
that would shake out even the most seasoned investor
and the fact that we're seeing them at similar
points in the cycle to 2017
makes people wonder if history is repeating itself
but back then alt coins crashed even harder right
Crypto Daily mentions drops of up to 65%
before they bounce back
we haven't seen that kind of carnage this time around
true but keep in mind
Crypto Daily's Money is freedom podcast
also raised a red flag
about the current meme coin craze
oh right
remember that episode
are we at the peak of the meme coin craze
they pointed out Solana's underperformance
compared to Bitcoin as a potential warning sign
the things might be getting a little frothy
that's right they argued that the meme coin craze
especially on platforms like pump dot fun
might be nearing its end
so maybe the altcoin crash hasn't happened yet
but it could be on the horizon
exactly
and that's where understanding market indicators
becomes really crucial Crypto Daily emphasizes
looking at things like ISM trends
liquidity cycles and inflation
these are the forces that could shape
what happens next in crypto
okay so you've thrown out some uh
big potentially confusing terms
break those down for me
what are these indicators and how can they help
someone like me understand the crypto market sure
let's start with the ISM
that stands for the Institute for Supply Management
and they track data on the manufacturing sector
mostly in the US
think of it like a health check for the economy
a strong ISM usually means a healthy economy
which is good news for riskier assets like crypto
but if the ISM starts to weaken
it could signal a slowdown
and investors might pull back from crypto
so it's like a canary in the coal mine
for the wider economy yeah
the canary starts to keel over
it might be time to get out of the crypto market
that's one way to look at it
now liquidity cycles
refer to how easily you can buy or sell an asset
high liquidity means there's a lot of money flowing
around which can push prices up
when liquidity dries up prices tend to drop
understanding these cycles
can help anticipate those shifts
that makes sense so
more money flowing around
means more people buying crypto
driving prices up
less money means fewer buyers and prices might fall
what about inflation
everyone's talking about that these days
how does it play into all this
well some believe bitcoin
with its limited supply
can act as a hedge against inflation
if your dollars are losing value
bitcoin might hold its value better
but there's another side to the coin
rising inflation
could also lead to tighter monetary policy
from governments and that
could hurt risk assets like crypto
it's a complex relationship
so with inflation
it's like a double edged sword for crypto
on the one hand
it might drive people towards bitcoin as a safe haven
on the other hand it could trigger government actions
that hurt the entire market
tricky stuff exactly
it's a complex dynamic
that we need to keep watching closely
yeah but let's shift gears for a moment
and talk about another big player in this crypto drama
institutional investors ah yes
the big money Cryptoday highlighted how major players
like Citadel and Blackrock
are now involved in crypto
that's a huge change from 2017
when institutions
were just starting to dip their toes in
it's a completely different landscape now
institutions are diving head first into crypto
and that's changing the game
what's driving this institutional FOMO
why are they so interested in crypto all of a sudden
well there are a few reasons
first the crypto market has grown up a lot since 2017
it's more regulated
more liquid and easier for institutions to navigate
second
the potential returns in crypto are too big to ignore
and third
there's a growing sense that crypto is here to stay
it's not just a fad it's a transformative technology
so does this influx of institutional money
mean the crypto market is becoming more stable
less like the Wild West and more like Wall Street
it's certainly possible
institutional money can bring more stability
and liquidity to the market
but it's not a guaranteed smooth ride
remember institutions can make big moves
and those moves can create volatility too
that's a good point
just because the big players are here
doesn't mean we can all relax and expect steady growth
but hey one thing that hasn't changed much since 2017
is the appeal of those alt coins
people are still chasing those moonshot games
absolutely
the alt coin market is still a hot bed of speculation
and innovation
and with the rise of things like Defi and NFTS
there's a whole universe of new opportunities
popping up all the time
it's mind boggling how fast things change in crypto
but with all this talk of old coins
and potential bubbles
are we headed for another old season
should I be getting ready to ride that wave
that's the million dollar question
isn't it some analysts think we are
pointing to things
like the growing institutional interest
the defi explosion
and the emergence of new blockchain platforms
but Crypto Daily's Money is freedom podcast
also warned us about the potential dangers
of the meme coin craze
not all alt coins are created equal
and some could face big corrections
right just because something is an alt coin
doesn't mean it's a guaranteed winner
some of them have real uses and solid tech behind them
but others are just riding the hype wave
buyer beware right exactly
it's crucial to do your research
and understand what you're investing in before diving
head first into the altcoin market
but there's one more piece of the puzzle
we need to consider regulation
ah yes
regulation the big unknown in the crypto world
how is the evolving regulatory landscape shaping things
that's a crucial question
and one we'll delve into more
in Part 3 of our deep dive
governments around the world
are still figuring out how to handle cryptocurrencies
and their decisions
could have a massive impact on the industry
it feels like a wild west out there
with regulators
trying to catch up to this fast moving technology
so what can our listeners expect in Part 3
what are their insights are we gonna uncover
we'll dive deep into the world of regulations
and explore how they might shape the future of crypto
sounds good to me see you there
see ya welcome back to our crypto deep dive
last time we were wrestling with this big question
are we reliving 2,017 and the more we look at the data
the more those parallels pop up
it's like holding a mirror up to the market for sure
remember that chart analysis from image PDF
yeah those steep drops in Bitcoin
followed by even stronger comebacks
that was a hallmark of 2017
yeah those red lines marking the 28% plus pullbacks
yeah are giving me flashbacks
yeah but if we're really following the 2017 playbook
shouldn't alt coins be taking an even bigger hit
we haven't seen those 65% drops that Crypto Daily
talked about that's a good point
we haven't seen a full blown alt coin crash yet
but remember
Crypto Daily also warned about the meme coin frenzy
potentially reaching its peak
they even highlighted Solana
lagging behind Bitcoin as a potential warning sign
yeah their podcast money is freedom
they were pretty clear that the meme coin craze
especially on platforms like Pump Dot Fun
might be unsustainable
so maybe the altcoin reckoning is still out there
lurking in the shadows it's definitely a possibility
and this is why it's crucial to understand
those market indicators we talked about earlier
remember
Crypto Daily really emphasized looking at ISM trends
liquidity cycles and inflation
these forces could determine what happens
next in the crypto world okay
so let's say I'm keeping an eye on those indicators
what am I looking for
what are they telling us right now
well let's take the ISM manufacturing index
this gives us a peek into how well U
s manufacturing is doing
a strong ISM reading often suggests a healthy economy
which could be good news for crypto
but if the ISM weakens it could signal trouble ahead
so it's like a warning system
if the ISM starts flashing red
it might be time to rethink my crypto strategy
exactly now liquidity cycles are a bit more nuanced
liquidity is all about how easily you can buy or sell
an asset
high liquidity means there's lots of money flowing
driving prices up but when liquidity
dries up things can get dicey
understanding these cycles
can help you anticipate potential market swings
okay so it's like the tides of the market
sometimes the tide is high
bringing in more money and pushing up prices
sometimes
the tide goes out and things get a bit more volatile
makes sense now
what about inflation
how does that play into the crypto equation
it feels like everyone's worried about inflation
these days it's definitely a big factor
some people believe bitcoin
with its limited supply
can act as a hedge against inflation
as the value of your dollars goes down
bitcoin might hold its value better
but others argue
that rising inflation
could lead to tighter monetary policies
from governments
and that could actually harm risk assets
like cryptocurrencies so with inflation
it's like a double edged sword for crypto
on the one hand
it might drive people towards Bitcoin as a safe haven
on the other hand it could trigger government actions
that hurt the entire market
tricky stuff exactly
it's a complex dynamic that we need to keep watching
closely but yes
let's shift gears for a moment
and talk about another big player in this crypto drama
institutional investors ah yes
the big money cryptodaily highlighted how major players
like Citadel and Blackrock
are now involved in crypto
this is a huge change from 2017
when
institutions were just starting to dip their toes in
it's a completely different landscape now
institutions are diving headfirst into
crypto and that's changing the game
what's driving this institutional FOMO
why are they so interested in crypto all of a sudden
well there are a few reasons
first the crypto market has grown up a lot since 2017
it's more regulated
more liquid and easier for institutions to navigate
second
the potential returns in crypto are too big to ignore
and third
there's a growing sense that crypto is here to stay
it's not just a fad it's a transformative technology
so does this influx of institutional money
mean the crypto market is becoming more stable
less like the Wild West and more like what Wall Street
it's certainly possible
institutional money can bring more stability
and liquidity to the market
but it's not a guaranteed smooth ride
remember institutions can make big moves
and those moves can create volatility too
that's a good point
just because the big players are here
doesn't mean we can all relax and expect steady growth
but hey yeah
one thing that hasn't changed much since 2017
is the appeal of those old coins
people are still chasing those moonshot gains
yeah absolutely
the altcoin market is still a hot bed of speculation
and innovation
and with the rise of things like Defi and NFTs
there's a whole universe of new opportunities
popping up all the time
it's mind boggling how fast things change in crypto
but with all this talk of alt coins
and potential bubbles
are we headed for another alt season
should I be getting ready to ride that wave
that's the million dollar question
isn't it some analysts think we are
pointing to things like
the growing institutional interest
the defi explosion
and the emergence of new blockchain platforms
but Crypto Daily's Money is freedom podcast
also warned us
about the potential dangers of the meme coin craze
not all altcoins are created equal
and some could face big corrections
right just because something is an altcoin
doesn't mean it's a guaranteed winner
some of them have real uses and solid tech behind them
but others are just riding the hype wave
buyer beware exactly
it's crucial to do your research
and understand what you're investing in
before diving head first into the altcoin market
but there's one more piece of the puzzle
we need to consider regulation
ah yes
regulation the big unknown in the crypto world
how is the evolving regulatory landscape shaping things
that's a crucial question
and one we'll delve into more
in Part 3 of our deep dive
governments around the world
are still figuring out how to handle cryptocurrencies
and their decisions
could have a massive impact on the industry
it feels like a Wild west out there
with regulators
trying to catch up to this fast moving technology
so what can our listeners expect in Part 3
what other insights are we going to uncover
and
we're back for the final part of our Crypto Deep Dive
part 3 the grand finale we've
talked market swings the echoes of 2017
the rival of big institutions
but now we got to tackle the big elephant in the room
regulation yeah
it's the big one isn't it right
it feels like this huge question Mark
hanging over the whole crypto world
like how are governments gonna regulate this
this new decentralized technology that frankly
seems to want to exist outside the normal rules
it's that core tension isn't it
you know
crypto was designed to be free from government control
but as it becomes more mainstream
governments are stepping in
they want to protect investors
prevent illegal activities
and let's be honest
figure out how they can get a piece of the action right
it's that classic struggle between freedom and control
playing out right in front of us
crypto daily money is freedom
doesn't go into specific regulations
but you can sense that tension
running through all their analysis
oh absolutely
think about those episodes on meme coins
and fiscal dominance
they both touch on areas where regulation
could have a huge impact
will governments try to crack down on meme coin
speculation
how will they manage their own debt and spending
in a world where crypto is becoming increasingly
important it feels like a lot of unknowns
yeah those are some big complex questions
but you know
maybe regulation isn't necessarily a bad thing
what if we had clear consistent rules
wouldn't that actually make the crypto market
more attractive to investors and
businesses first
it seems like uncertainty breeds volatility
I agree right now
the lack of clear guidelines
creates fear and hesitation
a well defined regulatory framework
could help legitimize the crypto space
and attract even more institutional investment
but here's the flip side
if governments get too heavy handed with regulations
won't that stifle innovation
and undermine the whole point of crypto
true it's a tough balancing act
it is that's why it's so important to stay informed
about what's happening on the regulatory front
keep an eye on key regions like the U
S the EU and Asia
their decisions will have ripple effects
throughout the entire crypto market
so it's not just about watching the price of Bitcoin
we got to keep up with the regulatory landscape too
it's a lot to keep track of
it is but that's what makes the crypto world so dynamic
and fascinating it's constantly evolving
there's always something new to learn and understand
and speaking of learning and understanding
let's revisit that final
thought provoking question from Crypto Daily
how might government spending and debt
influence the crypto market
especially with the threat of inflation
looming over everything
that's where things get really interesting
remember that blog post
they highlighted the new era of fiscal dominance
it argues that as government debt keeps rising
and central banks keep printing money
we could be in for a serious inflation surge
and if that happens
wouldn't it make sense for investors to flock to
assets like bitcoin
which is seen as a hedge against inflation
but then wouldn't governments try to intervene
even more in the crypto market
to maintain control over their monetary policy
exactly
it's this complex dance between traditional finance
government policies
and the decentralized world of crypto
it's like a high stakes poker game
where the players keep changing the rules
and the stakes keep getting higher
so what's the takeaway for our listeners
who are trying to navigate this wild crypto world
what advice would you give them
I'd say stay curious stay informed
and don't be afraid of the uncertainty
the crypto world is full of potential
both positive and negative
it's a journey of discovery
well said and on that note
we've reached the end of our deep dive
into the crypto market we've covered a lot of ground
but we've only scratched the surface of this complex
and fascinating landscape
absolutely we encourage you to continue exploring
to dig deeper into the resources we've discussed
and to stay engaged with this ever evolving world
it's an exciting space to be in
because the crypto adventure is just beginning
until next time happy exploring