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welcome to money is freedom

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a podcast

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exploring how finance and freedom connect in our lives

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created from thoughtful research

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and narrated by Notebook LM AI

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this series brings you clear

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meaningful insights into finance and beyond

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in episode 27

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we explore whether Bitcoin's rising dominance is

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permanently changing crypto history

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or if alt season is just delayed

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with institutions favoring Bitcoin

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and quantitative tightening

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QT still in effect alt coins have struggled

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leading some to declare the end of past cycles patterns

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but does history suggest otherwise

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join me as we break down Bitcoin's dominance

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alt coin trends and key macro signals

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that could determine if alt season will return in 2025

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or never again

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welcome to the deep dive today um

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we're gonna be waiting into the waters

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of the crypto market oh fun

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you shared some research with me on alt season right

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so that's that time when all the alt coins yeah

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the alternative cryptocurrency is

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are supposed to outperform bitcoin

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uh huh and the big question everyone's asking yeah

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is this cycle different

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is alt season just delayed or is it just gone

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yeah is it just gone

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let's let's break it down

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okay let's do it

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so it's

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it's definitely an interesting time to be watching

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the markets yeah

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you know we've got this historical pattern

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the so called crypto cycle right

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which is really heavily influenced by

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Bitcoin's having event right

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the having yeah

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it's kind of like a built in scarcity

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mechanism right it happens roughly every four years

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yeah Bitcoin's production rate gets cut in half

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and in theory that should drive up the price yeah

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but but how does that impact all the alt coins

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will historically when Bitcoin's price surges

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after a having on early investors

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you know they take profits right

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they've been holding sometimes for years yeah

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and this is their chance to cut a cash out sure

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and then they look for the next big opportunity yeah

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and that's where all coins come in make sense

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so this flow of capital from Bitcoin into alt coins

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right that's what has traditionally fueled these like

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explosive alt seasons okay

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so it's like a classic pump and rotate strategy

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exactly bitcoin goes up

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profits get taken

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and then that money flows into the alt coins

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creating another surge yeah

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we've seen this play out before

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haven't we absolutely like when uh

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well 2017 OK

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bitcoin dominance just plummeted wow

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as as Ethereum and other

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all coins just absolutely skyrocketed

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and then again in 2021

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we had like the meme coin frenzy

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remember that oh yeah

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the defi boom Nfts exploding like it was wild

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it was wild it felt like every day

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there was a new coin hitting the headlines

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and here's where things get really puzzling this time

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Bitcoin's dominance isn't dropping

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in fact it's actually increasing right

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so what's going on here yeah

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what is going on is the cycle broken

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that that is the million dollar question yeah

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um a couple things stand out to me

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for the research you shared okay

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first

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we've got this massive influx of institutional money

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okay into Bitcoin interesting

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the approval of spot Bitcoin etfs in the US right

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has been a game changer oh really

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these etfs make it way easier for large institutions

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like who like pension funds

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hedge funds okay to invest in Bitcoin

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and and they're doing it they are in a big way wow

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so it's like

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Bitcoin has finally gotten

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the Wall Street seal of approval yeah

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you can say that

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but the alt coins are still viewed as too risky yeah

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too risky for those big players okay

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yeah we're seeing these like

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establish firms like Black Rock and Fidelity

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those are big names launching Bitcoin etfs and I mean

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these are the giants of the financial world yeah

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that kind of legitimacy yeah

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is a powerful driver for bitcoin price

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so

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he institutional adoption is definitely playing a role

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big time but what about ethereum

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hmm it's the second largest cryptocurrency right yeah

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it's often seen as like the leader of the alt coin pack

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yeah it's kind of sets the tone

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what's happening with its performance

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that's another fascinating piece of the puzzle okay

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so while Bitcoin's market cap has been surging yeah

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Ethereum's dominance has actually been shrinking

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oh wow

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this this suggests that Ethereum might be decoupling

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from Bitcoin's trajectory interesting

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now whether that's a good thing

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or a bad thing for the alt coin market as a whole yeah

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that's still up for debate okay

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so it's like Bitcoin is becoming its own asset class

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the digital gold everyone keeps talking about

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exactly

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but if Ethereum isn't following the same pattern

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what does that mean

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for all the other alt coins out there right

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is alt season really over

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well it's not quite that simple okay

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there's another major factor at play here

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and that's the macro economic environment okay

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specifically the Federal Reserve monetary policy

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wait the Fed

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I thought crypto was supposed to be decentralized yeah

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separate from traditional finance right

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how does the Fed come into play

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that's a common misconception okay

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the reality is the crypto markets yeah

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are still influenced by global economic trends okay

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and right now

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we're in a period of quantitative tightening or QT

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where the Fed is reducing

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the amount of money in circulation okay

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so less money's sloshing around in the system exactly

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how does that impact crypto and alt coins specifically

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think of it this way okay

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when money is tight investors become more risk of earth

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sure

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they're less likely to gamble on speculative assets

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like alt coins like alt coins exactly

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bitcoin on the other hand

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is increasingly seen as this safe haven asset okay

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this kind of digital gold right

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so in a QT environment Bitcoin tends to benefit okay

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while alt coins suffer interesting

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so it's like a double whammy for alt coins yeah

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they're not getting the institutional love

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that bitcoin is right

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and they're getting squeezed

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by the Fed's tightening policy

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that's right no wonder they're struggling

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yeah they're having a tough time but

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but what happens when the Fed changes course

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that's where things get really interesting okay

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historically

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when the Fed shifts from QT to quantitative easing

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right or Q E right

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it's been like a green light for alt coins

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Q E that's when the Fed

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essentially pumps money back into the system

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right exactly

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making it easier for people to borrow and invest

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yep yep

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and that easy money tends to flow into riskier assets

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uh huh like alt coins

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like alt coins we saw this play out in 2019 and 2020

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right yeah

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ethereum and other alt coins were lagging behind

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uh huh but then the Fed pivoted to Q E and boom

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boom the alt coin market exploded

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it was off to the races so

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is that the key then

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are we just waiting for the Fed to flip the switch

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and turn on the Q E money printer

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wow will that magically bring back alt season

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it's certainly a factor to watch closely

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okay but there are other things to consider as well

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like what I mean

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the crypto landscape is constantly evolving right

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new technologies new projects

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new use cases are emerging all the time

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you're right it's not just about the money

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yeah there's the whole innovation side of things too

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exactly ethereum for example

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has been working on some pretty major upgrades yeah

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could those changes independent of the feds actions

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uh huh drive a resurgence in alt coin interest

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absolutely okay

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the Ethereum merge for example

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significantly reduced its energy consumption right

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made it more appealing to environmentally conscious

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investors and

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and there's ongoing work on scalability and security

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yeah

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if Ethereum can successfully address these challenges

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it could attract a whole new wave of adoption okay

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so we've got this interesting dynamic developing yeah

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on the one hand

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you've got bitcoin increasingly seen as a safe haven

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attracting institutional money

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on the other hand

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you've got Ethereum and other alt coins

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potentially driving innovation

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and attracting a different type of investor

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it's a fascinating dichotomy

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it is and it raises an important question

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what's that is the traditional crypto cycle

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with its clear dominance by bitcoin

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yeah still relevant

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hmm or are we moving toward a more multipolar market

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with different cryptocurrencies

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serving different purposes

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and attracting different investor profiles okay

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so maybe it's not about Alt Season being canceled

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but about it evolving yeah

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maybe maybe we won't see those massive

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synchronized pumps across the entire alt coin market

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like we did in the past that's a real possibility okay

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we might see more nuanced sector specific rallies

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interesting for example

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if there's a breakthrough in decentralized finance

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or defi uh huh

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we might see a surge in defy related altcoins

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so

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it's not about betting on the entire alt coin market

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right

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but about identifying specific trends and projects

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with strong fundamentals exactly

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that makes a lot of sense

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the key is to do your research yeah

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understand the technology right

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and assess the team behind each project okay

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the days of blindly chasing mean coins

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are probably over that's a good point

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the market is maturing

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and investors are becoming more sophisticated yeah

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for sure but let's bring it back to the present moment

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okay it's January 2025

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and the Fed is still in tightening mode

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interest rates are high liquidity is tight

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and risk appetite is low yep

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what does that mean for alt coins in the short term

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well

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it's certainly not the ideal environment for a major

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alt coin rally okay

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as we've discussed

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QT tends to favor safe haven assets like bitcoin yeah

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but that doesn't mean there aren't opportunities okay

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so even in this less than ideal environment

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there are still potential plays for savvy investors

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for sure but what should they be looking for

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what signals should we be watching for right

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what could indicate a shift in the tide for alt coins

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there are a few key indicators okay

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first and foremost any sign

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that the Fed is considering a pivot away from QT

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would be huge that could be hints of interest rate cuts

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yeah or even murmurs of a return to Q E

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so we're back to Fed watching a little bit yeah

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but with a more nuanced perspective this time right

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it's not just about waiting for the money

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printer to turn back on no no

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we also need to keep an

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eye on developments within the altcoin space itself

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uh huh are there any major upgrades

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or innovations on the horizon exactly

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are there specific sectors showing strong growth

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independent of the broader market conditions

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those are all good questions

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so it's about understanding both the macro

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economic forces right

279
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and the micro level

280
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innovations happening within the crypto space

281
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yeah it's a lot to keep track of

282
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it is but that's what makes it so fascinating

283
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yeah this is a dynamic

284
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rapidly evolving market uh huh

285
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and sting informed is crucial for success

286
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you're absolutely right so

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for our listener

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who's trying to make sense of all this

289
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what are the key takeaways

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what should they be focusing on

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as they navigate this complex landscape

292
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I would say

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the key takeaway is that the crypto market is maturing

294
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the days of simple predictable cycles might be over

295
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interesting we're moving towards a more complex

296
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multifaceted market

297
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influenced by a wide range of factors

298
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so it's not just about Bitcoin anymore

299
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exactly

300
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while Bitcoin will likely remain a dominant force

301
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uh huh alt coins are carving out their own niches okay

302
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driven by innovation

303
00:11:21,566 --> 00:11:23,933
and a growing understanding of their unique

304
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value propositions

305
00:11:25,333 --> 00:11:28,133
it sounds like the future of altcoins is less about

306
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writing bitcoins coattails

307
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and more about charting their own course

308
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based on

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real world utility and technological advancements

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I think that's a great way to sum it up

311
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it's like we're seeing the crypto ecosystem diversify

312
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yeah bitcoin is becoming the bedrock

313
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the digital gold right

314
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while altcoins are exploring

315
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all these different possibilities

316
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from decentralized finance to NFTs in beyond

317
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that's a great way to put it

318
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in

319
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this diversification makes the market more resilient

320
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okay more adaptable interesting

321
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it's no longer a monolithic entity

322
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driven solely by Bitcoin's price movement

323
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that's encouraging especially for someone like me

324
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who's always been fascinated by the potential

325
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of blockchain technology

326
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to disrupt all sorts of industries

327
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exactly and that's what makes this such an

328
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exciting space to watch we're still in the early stages

329
00:12:16,700 --> 00:12:19,900
yeah and there's so much innovation happening right

330
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the key is to stay informed okay

331
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stay curious yeah

332
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and don't be afraid to dive deep into

333
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the projects that peak your interest

334
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okay I'm ready to dive

335
00:12:27,966 --> 00:12:29,566
but before we wrap up yeah

336
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I wanna circle back to the question we started with

337
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okay is alt season canceled or just delayed

338
00:12:35,866 --> 00:12:37,866
yeah or maybe transformed into something

339
00:12:37,866 --> 00:12:38,933
completely different right

340
00:12:38,933 --> 00:12:39,933
what's your take

341
00:12:39,933 --> 00:12:42,400
I think it's safe to say that the traditional

342
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all season as we've known it

343
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might be a thing of the past

344
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okay

345
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those wild across the board pumps driven by bitcoins

346
00:12:49,300 --> 00:12:50,600
price cycles yeah

347
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:54,466
are less likely in this more mature diversified market

348
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so

349
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no more easy money by just blindly following the herd

350
00:12:58,166 --> 00:12:59,266
probably not

351
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but that doesn't mean there won't be

352
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opportunities for significant gains okay

353
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,233
the key is to be more selective

354
00:13:06,666 --> 00:13:08,366
more strategic right

355
00:13:08,366 --> 00:13:10,900
look for projects with strong fundamentals okay

356
00:13:10,933 --> 00:13:14,300
real world utility and a dedicated team behind them

357
00:13:14,300 --> 00:13:16,500
so it's about being an informed investor

358
00:13:16,500 --> 00:13:18,333
not just a speculator exactly

359
00:13:18,333 --> 00:13:20,533
it's about understanding the technology

360
00:13:20,533 --> 00:13:23,333
the trends and the potential impact of these projects

361
00:13:23,333 --> 00:13:24,333
precise and remember

362
00:13:24,333 --> 00:13:26,566
this is still a volatile market yeah

363
00:13:26,566 --> 00:13:29,366
don't invest more than you can afford to lose right

364
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:31,400
do your own research uh huh

365
00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:35,433
and don't rely solely on hype or social media sentiment

366
00:13:35,533 --> 00:13:37,200
solid advice so

367
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,166
as we emerge from this deep dive

368
00:13:39,166 --> 00:13:40,800
into the world of alt coins

369
00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:42,766
yeah what's the final thought

370
00:13:42,766 --> 00:13:44,766
you wanna leave our listener with

371
00:13:44,766 --> 00:13:46,766
what's the one thing they should keep in mind

372
00:13:46,766 --> 00:13:48,766
as they continue their crypto journey

373
00:13:48,933 --> 00:13:52,766
I would say this the crypto space is full of potential

374
00:13:52,900 --> 00:13:54,900
okay but it's also full of risk

375
00:13:54,900 --> 00:13:58,000
uh huh don't get caught up in the hype cycles right

376
00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,733
focus on understanding the underlying technology

377
00:14:00,733 --> 00:14:02,666
yeah the value propositions

378
00:14:02,666 --> 00:14:04,800
and the long term vision of the projects

379
00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,500
you're interested in and always remember

380
00:14:07,733 --> 00:14:10,133
the future of finance is being written right now

381
00:14:10,133 --> 00:14:12,933
wow and you have the opportunity to be a part of it

382
00:14:12,933 --> 00:14:14,466
that's a great note to end on

383
00:14:14,466 --> 00:14:15,500
thanks for having me

384
00:14:15,733 --> 00:14:17,500
thanks for taking this deep dive with us

385
00:14:17,500 --> 00:14:18,333
and thanks to ur

386
00:14:18,333 --> 00:14:20,766
listener for joining us on this exploration

387
00:14:20,766 --> 00:14:22,466
until next time keep learning

388
00:14:22,466 --> 00:14:23,466
keep exploring

389
00:14:23,466 --> 00:14:26,300
and keep diving deep into the fascinating world

390
00:14:26,300 --> 00:14:27,600
of cryptocurrency