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welcome to episode 17 Today
we dive into the intersection of macroeconomics
and cryptocurrency
as we explore Bitcoin's 100,000 dollar milestone
and the latest unemployment data
what does the US labor market tell us about
the Federal Reserve's next move
and how is it shaping the crypto market's future
join us as we unpack these pivotal trends
and what they mean for investors
navigating 2025 and beyond
hey everyone and welcome back
I am so excited for today's deep dive
because we are gonna be talking about something
that is well
let's just say it's pretty mind blowing
I agree this one is definitely a fascinating topic yeah
so remember when you wrote that blog post about Bitcoin
and you called it a what was it
a a global digital asset yeah
the global digital asset well guess what
bitcoin just blasted through
the hundred thousand dollar Mark
and get this
it happened right as the December jobs report came out
wow so
maybe there is a connection between
the macroeconomic climate
and the cryptoworld after all
that is exactly
what we're gonna try to figure out today
now I know what you're thinking what am I thinking
haha okay
maybe not but a lot of people are wondering
is this just a coincidence
or are these two seemingly unrelated events
bitcoin hitting this huge milestone in this jobs report
are they actually connected somehow
and if so what does it mean for all of us
well one thing's for sure
that hundred thousand dollar price tag
it's a big deal okay
so Bitcoin hits $100,000
that's huge
but is it just hype or is there something more to it
you know something actually driving this surge
well to understand that
we have to look at the bigger picture
and that's where the jobs report comes in
and it's a bit of a mixed bag
on the one hand we see strong job growth
227,000 new jobs added that's fantastic
but then
the unemployment rate actually ticked up a bit to 4.2%
so it is a little confusing
yeah that is a bit of a head scratcher
strong job growth A&D
rising unemployment what's the deal with that
well to really understand what's going on
we need to dig into the details of the report
for example the construction and tech sectors
are absolutely booming really
oh yeah
but on the other hand retail is taking a hit
which kind of suggests that maybe
we're seeing the impact of
you know shifts in consumer behavior
and all those advancements
and technology that are happening
okay so how does this all tie back to Bitcoin
it feels like we're talking about
two completely different things
not necessarily see
the market reacts to what it
thinks is gonna happen in the future
and right now everyone's watching the Federal Reserve
basically
holding their breath to see what they're gonna do
wait the Fed
what do they have to do with bitcoin
and why is everyone so obsessed with them
well it all boils down to interest rates
when the Fed cuts rates
it basically makes borrowing money cheaper
businesses can invest more
things start moving faster
it's like giving the economy a shot of adrenaline
and historically bitcoin has tended to do
really well in those kinds of environments
hold on you said cutting rates
but didn't the jobs report show a rise in unemployment
doesn't that usually mean that rates go up
usually yes
but this time things are a little different
most experts think
the Fed is much more worried about keeping the
economy going strong
than they are about that little uptick
and unemployment
they are actually predicting a rate cut
maybe even as much as 25 basis points
at their next meeting in December
and that's sending a really
strong signal to the markets
okay so a rate cut could be good news for Bitcoin
but how do we know
that's what's actually causing the price to surge
is it just a coincidence that it hit $100,000
right after this job's report came out
it's more than just a coincidence
right after that job's data was released
Bitcoin's price jumped even higher
before kind of settling back down a bit
the
market definitely saw that report as making a rate cut
a lot more likely and people probably started thinking
okay if the feds about to make money cheaper
then bitcoin could be the place to be
that's pretty interesting
so it's not just about the numbers in the jobs report
itself it's about what those numbers tell us
about what might happen next with the Fed
exactly and there's another piece to this puzzle too
there is okay
I am all ears what is it
it's the institutional investors
they are getting into Bitcoin like never before
we're seeing all these new bitcoin etfs popping up
and even some really big corporations
are starting to add bitcoin
to their list of assets
it is not this fringe thing anymore
it is going totally mainstream
okay so
we've got a potential rate cut
that could make Bitcoin even more appealing
plus
you've got all these big players jumping into the game
no wonder things are getting exciting
but I think the big question on everyone's mind is
can this last is this sustainable
that is the million dollar question
isn't it to understand what's next for bitcoin
we actually need to look back
and see
how it's performed in similar situations in the past
think of it like
checking the historical weather patterns
before you plan a trip so
you're saying
we need to look at those past economic cycles
let's rewind for a second
you mentioned something earlier called
post having cycles I have heard that term thrown around
but honestly I have no idea what it means
can you break that down for us
and how do these cycles relate to Bitcoin
okay so imagine the total supply of Bitcoin as a pie
every four years something called a having happens
which basically
cuts the rate at which new Bitcoin is created in half
it's like someone is
slicing that pie into smaller and smaller pieces
so less Bitcoin is being created over time
right and historically
after these having events
we've seen some pretty
significant price increases for Bitcoin
that makes sense less bitcoin available
plus more and more people wanting a piece of that pie
exactly classic supply and demand
and right now what's happening in the market
is starting to look a lot like what we saw
in some of those previous
post having cycles
we've got more liquidity in the system
and potentially
a pretty loose monetary policy coming from the Fed
it's a combination that has
at least in the past LED to some big gains for Bitcoin
but you know
history doesn't always repeat itself perfectly
and there are a lot of other factors that could
you know shake things up for Bitcoin in the future
I mean think about
all the crazy stuff happening around the world
right now ah yes
Geo politics always a wildcard
ah
so what kind of global events are we talking about here
what could really impact bitcoin in say 2025
well imagine this
trade tensions
escalate between a couple of major economies
or there's some political instability
and region that's really involved in bitcoin mining
suddenly the traditional markets get spooked
and investors are scrambling
for a safe place to put their money
and they might turn to bitcoin
exactly because bitcoin
with its decentralized nature and limited supply
it starts to look like a pretty attractive option
in times of uncertainty it's like a digital safe haven
okay so
it sounds like
keeping an eye on those news headlines is just as
important as watching what's happening in the economy
right absolutely
geopolitical events can send these huge shockwaves
through the entire global economy
and those shockwaves
they definitely reached the crypto market too
but Bitcoin's not this isolated thing anymore
it's all connected so to sum it up
we've got this potential rate cut from the Fed
growing interest from these huge institutions
Andy the untradictable nature of global events
all of that could impact Bitcoin's price
it's a lot to think about
it is and it's why
just looking at past price trends isn't enough
you really have to consider the bigger picture
all those forces at play
both inside the crypto world and out in the real world
okay so if we're looking ahead to say 2025
what are the things you're really gonna be watching
to kind of get a sense of where bitcoin might be headed
what are the big indicators
well for one
I'll be keeping a close eye on inflation
if inflation keeps going up
people might start turning to Bitcoin
as a hedge against that
kinda like they do with gold sometimes
and then of course there's the Fed
every single word they say about interest rates
will be analyzed by like
a million people so
definitely pay attention to what they're saying
and what they're doing okay
so 2025 could be a wild ride for bitcoin investors
volatility is definitely part of the game
when it comes to crypto
but that doesn't mean you just have to
you know
sit back and cross your fingers and hope for the best
there are some things you can do to navigate this
let's call it a dynamic environment
alright so let's talk strategy
what advice would you give to someone
who's really excited about Bitcoin
but also wants to be smart about managing the risk
well first of all
diversification is key
don't put all your eggs in one basket
you know
spread your investments across different asset classes
and the other thing is
don't get caught up in the day to day price swings
zoom out a little bit focus on the long term
remember Bitcoin's story is still being written
and we haven't even seen its full potential yet
I like that focus on the long term
we've talked a lot about economic indicators
about these big institutions getting involved
about global events and even a little bit of history
but I feel like there's one piece of the puzzle
we haven't really talked about yet
and that's technology
how could those advancements in tech shape
Bitcoin's future
could those new innovations like disrupt everything
or could they actually make bitcoin even more valuable
that's a great question and honestly
it's one that deserves a whole deep dive of its own
I mean think about the impact of things like AI
or quantum computing or even
the development of entirely new blockchain networks
the world of technology changes so fast
and the crypto space is right there
at the forefront of that change
it makes you wonder
how all those emerging technologies might impact
Bitcoin and really the entire crypto ecosystem right
absolutely will they be competitors
collaborators or something else entirely
I think that question how those things interact
is gonna continue to shape the financial landscape
for a long long time
it's both really exciting and a little bit overwhelming
to be honest yeah
it's definitely both
but that's part of what makes the space so captivating
it's like a constant learning curve
there's always something new to discover
okay so we've covered a lot of ground here
from Bitcoin's record breaking price
to the latest jobs report
to Geo politics even
touched on some of those
emerging technologies that are out there
but before we wrap up
I wanna leave you with one last thought
to kinda chew on okay
let's hear it what's the final takeaway
well we've been talking a lot about
all these external forces
that could impact bitcoin
but what about the internal dynamics
you know
what's happening within the Bitcoin community itself
I mean remember
bitcoin is decentralized
it's powered by a global network of viewers
and developers that's such a good point
the decisions made by that community
the direction they choose to take the technology
that could have the biggest impact of all
on Bitcoin's future exactly
things like figuring out how to scale the network
or enhancing privacy
or even those debates about the role of miners
all of those internal factors are gonna shape
Bitcoin's evolution yeah
it's a good reminder that
bitcoin isn't just some digital currency
it's a whole ecosystem
and it's constantly adapting and changing
and that's what makes it so fascinating okay
so on that note
I think we've reached the end of our deep die for today
I hope you've enjoyed exploring
all these intricate connections between Bitcoin
the economy and everything else
that
shaping the future of finance has been quite a journey
it really has been
it's amazing to see how far Bitcoin has come
you know when you first started writing about Bitcoin
on your blog it felt like such a kind of a niche thing
but after today's deep dive
I mean wow
it's clear that Bitcoin is a
major player on the world stage now
it's definitely not on the sidelines anymore
and I think that's why it's so important for everyone
whether you're a hardcore investor
or just curious about crypto
to understand these connections
it's bigger than just oh
what's the price of Bitcoin today
it's about understanding how
the whole financial system is changing really
so for our listeners out there
what's
the one thing they should take away from all of this
what should they be thinking about as they try to
you know navigate this crazy exciting world of crypto
honestly
I think the most important thing is to remember
that Bitcoin story is still being written
we are so early in this whole thing
so yeah
things change fast and it can be a little overwhelming
but just stay curious keep learning
and don't be afraid to ask questions
that's great advice and you know
you don't have to figure it all out on your own
there's a whole community out there
people who are really passionate about bitcoin
find them exactly
connect with other people
join the conversation and just keep exploring
the more you learn
the better decisions you'll be able to make
you know for your own financial future
well
I think that about wraps it up for our deep dive today
hopefully you found this conversation helpful
it was a lot of fun and to everyone listening
thanks for joining us keep your eyes open
stay informed and keep on exploring until next time