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a podcast

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exploring how finance and freedom connect in our lives

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and narrated by Notebook LM AI

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this series brings you clear

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meaningful insights into finance and beyond

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in Episode 5 of money is freedom

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we unravel the mixed signals in today's economy

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with short term yields down and long term yields up

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a gold surge and job numbers raising red flags

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is a recession still on the horizon

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despite soft landing indicators

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join us as we explore why market sentiment may be at

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odds with macroeconomic data

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and what this could mean for your financial future

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hey everyone welcome back

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it feels like everyone's glued to the economic

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news lately right

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trying to figure out if we're

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tiptoeing towards a recession

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or cruising to a soft landing

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yeah it's a real head scratcher for sure

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well the article we're diving into today

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really gets into the nitty gritty

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it's called are we headed for a recession

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despite signs of a soft landing

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hmm by chaos of money

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oh yeah I saw that one making the rounds

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yeah so

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we're gonna try to unpack all these mixed signals

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and see if we can make heads or tails of it all

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what do you think sounds like a plan

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let's dig in alright

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so first up the yield curve

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now

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I'm not gonna bore you with all the technical jargon

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cause I know you're all savvy economic enthusiasts

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uh but let's talk about the elephant in the room here

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short term yields are dropping

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the long term yields they're actually going up

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what's the deal with that

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yeah that's definitely turning some heads

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remember a normal healthy yield curve

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it usually slopes upwards right

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yeah shows confidence in future growth

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but this inversion

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it's like the market sending us a secret message

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and it's not exactly a love letter

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oh think about it

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the Fed just cut interest rates

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which should theoretically

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make borrowing cheaper and give the economy a boost

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but if investors were really

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all in on this soft landing idea

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shouldn't we be seeing those long term yields fall to

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hmm good point

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the fact their rising suggests some serious hesitation

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like investors are saying

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whoa there

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hold your horses

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we're not quite convinced about this whole

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soft landing thing just yet

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so it's a bit of a gamble then

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for anyone thinking about buying a house

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or making a big investment right now

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oh absolutely

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it injects a whole lot of uncertainty into the equation

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you wouldn't wanna lock in a higher rate now

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only to watch rates drop

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if the economy does take a dip

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talk about bad timing and that uncertainty itself

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can actually contribute to a slowdown

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if people are hesitant to invest or make big purchases

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it can have a domino effect right

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it's all connected okay

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so we've got this yield curve inversion

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flashing some warning signs

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and then there's another interesting development

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gold prices ah yes

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gold the classic safe haven

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they've been steadily climbing

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ever since the Fed made those rate cuts

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what's the connection there

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well think of gold is the economic equivalent of a warm

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fuzzy blanket yeah

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when investors get nervous about the future

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they tend to flock to safe haven assets

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like good old gold make sense

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it's like that reliable friend you can always count on

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exactly it's seen as a stable store of value

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even if everything else goes haywire

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so this gold rush

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it's basically a giant mood ring for investor sentiment

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and right now it's telling us

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they're not exactly feeling all sunshine and rainbows

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about the economic outlook

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so are investors

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essentially

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casting a vote of no confidence with their wallets

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is this gold dress kind of

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echoing the message we're getting from

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the inverted yield curve it sure seems that way

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taken together those two signals

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paint a picture of growing apprehension

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it's like investors are hedging their bets

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seeking shelter in gold

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while keeping a wary eye on those rising

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long term yields hoping for the best

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but bracing themselves for potentially bumpy right

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ahead so buckle up is what you're saying

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could be wise okay

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next up let's talk about those Fed rate cuts

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we know they do this

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to try and give the economy a little Pep in its step

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but the article brought up this historical tidbit

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that really made me do a double take

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oh I think I know exactly what you're referring to

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out of 13 significant rate cut cycles

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since World War two

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eight of them were followed by a recession

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within 12 months yeah

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that's the one it's a bit of a sobering stat

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isn't it

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kind of throws a wrench in the whole soft landing

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optimism yeah

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it definitely injects a dose of reality

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but we also can't just assume

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history is gonna repeat itself exactly

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can we right

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we need to look at the whole picture exactly

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the economy is a complex beast

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there are always multiple factors at play

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so how should we interpret this historical data then

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is it like a blaring Siren

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or more of a gentle tap on the shoulder

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I'd say it's more like a flashing yellow light

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a cautionary tale

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it tells us to look beyond the surface

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and really dig into those underlying economic trends

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rate cuts themselves

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might not be the cause of recessions

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but they often happen when

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other factors are already pointing in that direction

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so it's all about context precise okay

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so we need to view those right

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cuts as just one piece of the puzzle

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not the whole picture

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it's like we're trying to solve a mystery

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but the clues keep leading us in different directions

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a very twisty tourney mystery

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uh huh right

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and speaking of mixed signals

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let's talk about GDP growth

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good old GDP

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it's one of those terms that gets thrown around a lot

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but let's be honest it can feel a bit abstract

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oh for sure

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so for anyone who needs a refresher

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what exactly is GDP and why should we care about it

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essentially GDP stands for gross domestic product

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and it measures

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the total value of all the goods and services

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produced in a country

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it's like the ultimate score card for economic health

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a growing GDP usually means things are humming along

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nicely okay

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so GDP growth good

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but the article we're looking at today

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makes an interesting point

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it argues that

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the recent GDP numbers might be a bit misleading

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something about government spending

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artificially inflating the growth

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ah yeah

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that's a crucial observation

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so while that recent 2

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8% GDP growth might sound impressive on the surface

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we gotta look under the hood

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if a big chunk of that growth

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is fueled by government spending

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it doesn't necessarily reflect

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the strength of the private sector

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and the private sector

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that's the real engine of long term

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sustainable economic growth

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so it's like a sugar rush

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it might give the economy a temporary jolt

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but it's not exactly a healthy long term strategy

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precisely imagine you're a business owner

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would you feel confident about expanding or investing

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if you knew that a lot of the demand for your products

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of services was coming from government contracts

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contracts that could disappear at a heartbeat

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probably not it'd be like building your business

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on a foundation of sand exactly

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you need that solid bedrock of private sector demand

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to really feel good about the economy's long term

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prospects

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so while the GDP numbers might look rosy on the surface

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it's important to dig deeper

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and understand what's really driving that growth

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it's like those before and after photos you see online

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sometimes there's a lot of clever editing going on

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behind the scenes uh huh

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that's a great analogy

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don't be fooled by the surface level gloss

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always look for the substance underneath

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solid advice alright

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so we

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gotta be cautious

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about reading too much into those headline

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GDP numbers now

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let's move on to something that always

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gets everyone talking the jobs report

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I feel like people hold their breath every month

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waiting for those numbers to come out

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yeah it's a big one

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the jobs report is like taking the pulse of the economy

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it tells us how many jobs are created or lost

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what industries are booming or busting

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and it gives us a sense of

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the overall health of the labour market

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and

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a strong job market is crucial for a healthy economy

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right when people have jobs

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they have money to spend which keeps businesses running

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and the economic engine humming along

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exactly so let's dive into that October jobs report

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what jumped out at you with that headline number

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was definitely a bit of a shocker

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only 12,000 jobs added

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that's way below what analysts were expecting

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it's like the economy hit a sudden speed bump

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yeah it wasn't the robust growth many were hoping for

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and what's even more concerning

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is that the private sector actually lost jobs

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that's a big red flag

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it suggests that businesses might be

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getting nervous about the future

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and are starting to pull back on hiring

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or even laying people off

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so

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even if the overall unemployment rate still looks okay

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the fact that businesses are shedding jobs

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is a sign that trouble might be brewing

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beneath the surface right

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and it's important to remember

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that job losses can have a

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ripple effect throughout the economy

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when people lose their jobs

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they cut back on spending

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which can hurt businesses

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and lead to even more job losses

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it can become a vicious cycle

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okay so we got these job losses in the private sector

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but the report also mentioned that government

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jobs actually increased

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how does that fit into the picture

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that's where things get even more interesting

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it sees a lot of the job growth in October

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was concentrated in the government sector

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now some government hiring is normal and necessary

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but

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if it's happening while a private sector is struggling

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it can distort the overall picture

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so it's not necessarily a bad thing

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but it's something we need to view with a critical eye

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exactly we need to ask ourselves

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is this government hiring sustainable in the long run

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and is it creating productive

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jobs that genuinely contribute to economic growth

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or is it more like using a

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band aid to cover up a deeper wound

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it's like trying to fix a leaky roof

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by just patching over the holes

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without addressing the underlying structural problem

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precisely

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we need to look beyond those surface level fixes

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and understand what's happening at the core

279
00:09:17,833 --> 00:09:19,700
okay so we've covered a lot of ground here

280
00:09:19,700 --> 00:09:21,800
the yield curves doing its own twist

281
00:09:21,900 --> 00:09:24,633
gold's acting like it's about to bolt for the hills

282
00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:25,833
the GDP numbers

283
00:09:25,833 --> 00:09:28,466
might be hiding some less than flattering truths

284
00:09:28,533 --> 00:09:30,633
and the jobs report is giving us mixed signals

285
00:09:30,633 --> 00:09:32,100
it's like trying to read tea leaves

286
00:09:32,100 --> 00:09:33,800
at the bottom of a very murky cup

287
00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,433
uh huh it's definitely a lot to digest

288
00:09:36,900 --> 00:09:38,566
and that's the key takeaway here

289
00:09:38,566 --> 00:09:40,633
the economy is sending us mixed signals

290
00:09:40,633 --> 00:09:42,200
there's evidence to support both

291
00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:43,500
the soft landing narrative

292
00:09:43,500 --> 00:09:46,700
and the recession fears so where does that leave us

293
00:09:46,833 --> 00:09:48,033
should we all be panicking

294
00:09:48,033 --> 00:09:49,800
and stocking up on canned goods

295
00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,700
or are things not as dire as they seem

296
00:09:52,833 --> 00:09:54,633
help us make sense of this please

297
00:09:54,933 --> 00:09:57,666
I wouldn't recommend heading for the bunker just yet

298
00:09:58,000 --> 00:09:59,966
but I do think it's crucial to approach

299
00:09:59,966 --> 00:10:01,533
the current economic landscape

300
00:10:01,533 --> 00:10:03,533
with a healthy dose of skepticism

301
00:10:03,966 --> 00:10:07,233
don't just rely on headlines or single data points

302
00:10:07,533 --> 00:10:09,733
dig deeper question the narratives

303
00:10:09,733 --> 00:10:11,533
and consider various perspectives

304
00:10:11,533 --> 00:10:13,433
that's solid advice for navigating

305
00:10:13,433 --> 00:10:14,700
pretty much anything in life

306
00:10:14,700 --> 00:10:15,900
these days isn't it

307
00:10:15,900 --> 00:10:17,700
especially when it comes to the economy

308
00:10:17,700 --> 00:10:20,633
which impacts so many aspects of our lives

309
00:10:20,766 --> 00:10:22,100
our investment spending habits

310
00:10:22,100 --> 00:10:25,000
even our career choices the more informed you are

311
00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,500
the better equipped you'll be to make sound decisions

312
00:10:27,500 --> 00:10:29,233
so we can't just bury our heads in the sand

313
00:10:29,233 --> 00:10:31,200
and hope for the best definitely not

314
00:10:31,500 --> 00:10:33,100
understanding the economic landscape

315
00:10:33,100 --> 00:10:34,433
isn't just about making money

316
00:10:34,433 --> 00:10:37,333
or avoiding losses it's about being aware

317
00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:39,000
being adaptable

318
00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:40,933
and being able to navigate whatever challenges

319
00:10:40,933 --> 00:10:42,433
or opportunities come our way

320
00:10:42,433 --> 00:10:43,833
I love that knowledge is power

321
00:10:43,833 --> 00:10:45,733
as they say absolutely

322
00:10:45,933 --> 00:10:47,766
and that's what this deep dogs all about

323
00:10:47,766 --> 00:10:49,233
empowering you with the information

324
00:10:49,233 --> 00:10:51,133
and tools to navigate this complex

325
00:10:51,133 --> 00:10:52,933
economic landscape alright

326
00:10:52,933 --> 00:10:54,433
so we've laid out all the evidence

327
00:10:54,433 --> 00:10:56,766
the arguments the historical context

328
00:10:56,766 --> 00:10:58,300
but now I'm even more curious

329
00:10:58,300 --> 00:11:00,833
knowing all this what's your gut feeling

330
00:11:00,833 --> 00:11:03,533
are we headed for a soft landing or recession

331
00:11:03,700 --> 00:11:05,433
spill the beans ah

332
00:11:05,433 --> 00:11:06,933
if only I had a crystal ball

333
00:11:07,833 --> 00:11:09,733
predicting the future is a risky game

334
00:11:09,766 --> 00:11:11,900
and I'm not in the business of making guarantees

335
00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:13,633
but what I can say is that

336
00:11:13,633 --> 00:11:15,633
the economy is a complex system

337
00:11:15,933 --> 00:11:18,066
and there are a lot of factors we can't control

338
00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,000
what we can control is how we prepare

339
00:11:21,033 --> 00:11:23,133
and how we respond to whatever comes our way

340
00:11:23,133 --> 00:11:24,733
okay so no definitive answer

341
00:11:24,733 --> 00:11:26,000
but some wise words nonetheless

342
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:27,500
I appreciate that and remember

343
00:11:27,500 --> 00:11:29,100
understanding the economic landscape

344
00:11:29,100 --> 00:11:30,500
isn't just about personal gain

345
00:11:30,500 --> 00:11:33,100
or loss it's about being informed

346
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:34,300
being adaptable

347
00:11:34,300 --> 00:11:36,200
and being able to make sound decisions for ourselves

348
00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,200
and our families no matter what the future hold

349
00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:39,133
well said

350
00:11:39,300 --> 00:11:40,733
so let's bring it back to you

351
00:11:40,733 --> 00:11:43,366
our listener we've explored the yield curve

352
00:11:43,366 --> 00:11:46,100
the gold rush those historical rate cut patterns

353
00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:47,433
the GDP debate

354
00:11:47,433 --> 00:11:49,666
and the roller coaster ride of the jobs report

355
00:11:49,733 --> 00:11:50,833
what's resonating with you

356
00:11:50,833 --> 00:11:53,400
what are you thinking about as you process all of this

357
00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:55,333
this is where critical thinking comes in

358
00:11:55,566 --> 00:11:57,533
it's easy to get swept up in the headlines

359
00:11:57,533 --> 00:12:01,233
and pronouncements but it's crucial to analyze the data

360
00:12:01,300 --> 00:12:04,233
consider the sources and form your own conclusions

361
00:12:04,233 --> 00:12:06,266
it's like we've given you all the puzzle pieces

362
00:12:06,500 --> 00:12:08,133
but now it's your turn to put them together

363
00:12:08,133 --> 00:12:10,133
and see what picture you get exactly

364
00:12:10,133 --> 00:12:12,000
no single right answer here

365
00:12:12,133 --> 00:12:14,300
maybe you're leaning towards a soft landing camp

366
00:12:14,300 --> 00:12:16,333
or maybe those recession alarm bells are ringing

367
00:12:16,333 --> 00:12:17,033
a little louder for you

368
00:12:17,033 --> 00:12:20,833
though it all boils down to how you interpret the data

369
00:12:21,133 --> 00:12:23,233
and your own personal risk tolerance

370
00:12:23,233 --> 00:12:23,900
what matters

371
00:12:23,900 --> 00:12:26,400
is that you're really thinking critically about it all

372
00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,433
asking questions and making informed decisions

373
00:12:28,433 --> 00:12:30,033
based on your own analysis right

374
00:12:30,033 --> 00:12:32,833
it's about taking charge of your own economic outlook

375
00:12:33,100 --> 00:12:33,766
not just

376
00:12:33,766 --> 00:12:36,500
blindly accepting someone else's interpretation

377
00:12:36,500 --> 00:12:38,133
alright so to sum things up

378
00:12:38,500 --> 00:12:40,300
we've explored the arguments for both

379
00:12:40,300 --> 00:12:43,266
a potential soft landing and a possible recession

380
00:12:43,433 --> 00:12:44,000
we've seen that

381
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,000
the economic data is sending us some pretty

382
00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:47,033
mixed signals

383
00:12:47,333 --> 00:12:49,700
some indicators are giving us a glimmer of hope

384
00:12:49,700 --> 00:12:52,433
while others are raising some serious red flags

385
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:54,033
it's a real nail biter

386
00:12:54,033 --> 00:12:56,066
and that brings me to a final thought for you

387
00:12:56,500 --> 00:12:58,866
we've been focusing on the US economy here

388
00:12:59,033 --> 00:13:00,133
but it's important to remember

389
00:13:00,133 --> 00:13:01,800
that we don't exist in a bubble

390
00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,033
what's happening in the global economy

391
00:13:04,366 --> 00:13:05,166
well

392
00:13:05,500 --> 00:13:08,366
you can have a huge impact on our own economic journey

393
00:13:08,366 --> 00:13:09,233
that's a great point

394
00:13:09,233 --> 00:13:12,533
we're all interconnected in this big global marketplace

395
00:13:12,533 --> 00:13:14,533
those international trade tensions

396
00:13:14,533 --> 00:13:17,433
those geopolitical events brewing around the world

397
00:13:17,500 --> 00:13:18,366
they can create

398
00:13:18,366 --> 00:13:20,800
ripples that definitely reach our shores

399
00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,533
so as you keep an eye on the US economic landscape

400
00:13:23,533 --> 00:13:25,366
make sure you're also paying attention to those

401
00:13:25,366 --> 00:13:27,033
global developments too

402
00:13:27,166 --> 00:13:29,133
they might just hold the missing puzzle pieces

403
00:13:29,133 --> 00:13:30,900
to help you complete that economic picture

404
00:13:30,900 --> 00:13:31,800
we've been putting together

405
00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:33,000
it's like expanding our subject

406
00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:34,166
to see the bigger picture

407
00:13:34,166 --> 00:13:35,366
right exactly

408
00:13:35,366 --> 00:13:36,800
because at the end of the day

409
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:38,366
the more you know

410
00:13:38,366 --> 00:13:41,733
about both the domestic and global economic landscape

411
00:13:41,900 --> 00:13:43,566
the better prepared you'll be to navigate

412
00:13:43,566 --> 00:13:44,900
whatever financial storms

413
00:13:44,900 --> 00:13:46,566
or Sunny's guise come your way

414
00:13:46,566 --> 00:13:48,100
couldn't have said it better myself

415
00:13:48,333 --> 00:13:50,433
thanks for joining us on this deep dive

416
00:13:50,433 --> 00:13:52,133
and remember stay curious

417
00:13:52,133 --> 00:13:52,900
stay informed

418
00:13:52,900 --> 00:13:55,433
and stay engaged with the ever changing world around us

419
00:13:55,433 --> 00:13:56,733
we'll catch you next time

420
00:13:56,833 --> 00:13:57,566
yeah it's like

421
00:13:57,566 --> 00:14:00,366
we're all part of this massive economic ecosystem

422
00:14:00,366 --> 00:14:01,566
exactly and sometimes

423
00:14:01,566 --> 00:14:02,533
those external factors

424
00:14:02,533 --> 00:14:04,100
can feel even more unpredictable

425
00:14:04,100 --> 00:14:05,800
than what's happening right here at home

426
00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:07,000
for sure okay

427
00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,366
so we've talked about the yield curve

428
00:14:09,366 --> 00:14:10,733
gold prices rate cuts

429
00:14:10,733 --> 00:14:13,000
GDP and the jobs report

430
00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,233
it's a lot to process and I'm curious

431
00:14:15,233 --> 00:14:17,633
after hearing all this what are your initial thoughts

432
00:14:17,633 --> 00:14:20,166
are you leaning more towards the soft landing camp

433
00:14:20,166 --> 00:14:22,433
or you feeling those recession vibes

434
00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:23,566
you know it's really interesting

435
00:14:23,566 --> 00:14:25,100
hearing all the different perspectives

436
00:14:25,100 --> 00:14:27,433
and honestly I'm still on the fence a bit

437
00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:28,366
there are definitely

438
00:14:28,366 --> 00:14:30,733
some signs pointing towards a potential slowdown

439
00:14:31,333 --> 00:14:33,600
but there are also those glimmers of hope that maybe

440
00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:35,966
just maybe we can pull off a soft landing

441
00:14:35,966 --> 00:14:36,766
yeah it's like

442
00:14:36,766 --> 00:14:39,233
we're walking this economic tight rope right now

443
00:14:39,233 --> 00:14:40,000
exactly

444
00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,033
and it's hard to see for certain which way will tip

445
00:14:43,533 --> 00:14:43,966
but I think

446
00:14:43,966 --> 00:14:44,733
that's what makes this whole

447
00:14:44,733 --> 00:14:46,166
conversation so fascinating right

448
00:14:46,166 --> 00:14:48,333
we're all trying to decipher these economic clues

449
00:14:48,333 --> 00:14:49,933
yeah and figure out what the future holds

450
00:14:49,933 --> 00:14:52,166
it's like a real life economic mystery novel

451
00:14:52,166 --> 00:14:53,800
uh huh exactly

452
00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:55,433
and the ending is still unwritten

453
00:14:55,433 --> 00:14:57,533
which is both exciting and a little nerve rack

454
00:14:57,533 --> 00:14:58,166
oh for sure

455
00:14:58,166 --> 00:14:59,233
yeah but hey

456
00:14:59,733 --> 00:15:01,633
that's the beauty of economics right

457
00:15:01,833 --> 00:15:05,133
it's always evolving always keeping us on our toes

458
00:15:05,133 --> 00:15:07,433
I guess that's why we love to talk about it so much

459
00:15:07,733 --> 00:15:09,166
absolutely so

460
00:15:09,166 --> 00:15:11,866
what are you thinking after diving deep into all this

461
00:15:12,100 --> 00:15:14,200
what are you feeling about the economic outlook

462
00:15:14,533 --> 00:15:18,000
honestly I'm feeling a mix of cautious optimism

463
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:19,900
and a healthy dose of realism

464
00:15:20,033 --> 00:15:20,433
I think

465
00:15:20,433 --> 00:15:22,766
it's wise to be prepared for some bumps in the road

466
00:15:22,766 --> 00:15:23,566
ahead

467
00:15:23,633 --> 00:15:26,200
but I also believe in the resilience of the economy

468
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,233
and the ingenuity of people

469
00:15:28,233 --> 00:15:28,600
I think

470
00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:29,766
we'll find a way to navigate

471
00:15:29,766 --> 00:15:31,500
whatever challenges come our way

472
00:15:31,566 --> 00:15:32,800
I love that attitude

473
00:15:32,933 --> 00:15:36,633
cautious optimism and a belief in our ability to adapt

474
00:15:36,900 --> 00:15:38,600
I think that's the perfect mindset to have

475
00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:40,633
as we move forward I agree

476
00:15:40,833 --> 00:15:42,900
so let's leave our listeners with that thought

477
00:15:42,900 --> 00:15:45,300
as we wrap up this deep dive into the economy

478
00:15:45,533 --> 00:15:47,533
remember stay curious

479
00:15:47,566 --> 00:15:49,700
stay informed and most importantly

480
00:15:49,700 --> 00:15:51,833
stay engaged with the world around you

481
00:15:51,833 --> 00:15:52,933
we'll catch you next time

482
00:15:52,933 --> 00:15:55,133
for another fascinating economic adventure

483
00:15:55,133 --> 00:15:55,566
see you there