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welcome to money is freedom

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a podcast

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exploring how finance and freedom connect in our lives

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created from thoughtful research

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and narrated by Notebook LM AI

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this series brings you clear

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meaningful insights into finance and beyond

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in today's episode 3 will make it clear

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Bitcoin surging its dominance near at 73 grand

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its hit the spot near all time highs

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but now what

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we'll dive into cycles liquidity tight

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why Bitcoin shines in this kind of light

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alt coins falter as dollars are cut

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monetary shifts ahead but now what

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whether you're seasoned or just taking a shot

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join us to see what's next in the plot

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navigate the cycles the twists and the knot

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bitcoin soaring high but now what

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hey everyone and welcome back for another deep dive

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yeah it's great to be back

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today we're going exploring the world of cryptocurrency

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woo exciting

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but with a twist a twist

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we're gonna be talking about how cryptocurrency

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is influenced by the Federal Reserve interesting

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so today our guide is this article called Bitcoin

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Cyclical Patterns

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and the impact of Monetary Policy on alt coins

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okay by chaos of money

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all right um

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and so

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I'm sure most of our listeners have heard of Bitcoin

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right but have you ever noticed that

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it kind of goes through these like

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boom and bust cycles yeah

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and then we have all these other cryptocurrencies

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like alt coins yeah

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and it seems like sometimes they just explode in value

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out of nowhere it really does seem random

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yeah sometimes

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so what's fascinating is that these two worlds

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that seem very separate yeah

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are actually really connected

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yeah and the feds actions

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like adjusting interest rates

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and controlling how much money is circulating

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have a surprising impact on these crypto cycles

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yeah so let's break the stone first

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can you tell me about this Bitcoin

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four year cycle thing yeah

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so the article mentions these having events

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okay

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where the reward for mining bitcoin gets cut in half

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every four years so imagine that you're a gold miner

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and every four years

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the amount of gold you find in each nugget

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gets cut in half okay

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you'd have to work twice as hard to get

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the same amount of gold right

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well

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that's essentially what happens with Bitcoin having

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oh wow it creates this predictable pattern of scarcity

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and as you know yeah

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historically when something becomes scarcer

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its value tends to rise right

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supply and demand exactly

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so left bitcoins entering the market

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yeah and then boom

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the price goes up yeah

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but the article dies a little bit deeper than that

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okay and talks about bitcoin dominance years okay

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what's that all about so

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the article

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kind of breaks the 4 year cycle down even further

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okay and suggests that there are certain years within

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the cycle where Bitcoin tends to outperform

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um so it suggests that the midterm pre having

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and the having year itself are when

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bitcoin kind of rains supreme

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so it's Bitcoin's time to shine

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yeah during these years

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yeah and then it's outperforming all those old coins

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right so

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there are times when

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it would be more advantageous to be bitcoin heavy

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yeah in a portfolio

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that's the idea the article puts forward

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and this is where the Fed comes in yeah

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so picture this

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the Fed decides to tighten monetary policy

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okay and essentially

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they're like a giant vacuum sucking up liquidity

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yeah out of the system right

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so what happens then

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well people get nervous

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right and investors get anxious

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and they tend to flock to

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what they perceive as the safest asset

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in the crypto world so bitcoin

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bitcoin exactly

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it's like the gold standard of crypto

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yeah you could say that

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so Bitcoin's dominance rises

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during these periods of tightening

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yeah but what about all those other cryptos

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the alt coins yeah

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when do they get their time to shine

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so that's when we enter alt season

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alt season yeah

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okay and it's this period where all of sudden

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alternative cryptocurrencies are alt coins

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start to outperform okay

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and it's typically when the Fed

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loosens its grip on monetary policy

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okay and pumps more money into the system

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increasing global liquidity

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so it's like the Fed is throwing a party

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exactly and everyone's invited

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everyone's invited especially those risky

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more speculative old coins

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especially those okay

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yeah because when money is flowing freely

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investors feel more adventurous

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right and

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they're willing to take bigger bets on less

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established cryptocurrencies

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so everyone wants to be the next bitcoin right

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everyone wants to find the next big thing exactly

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but the article mentions that it's not just the feds

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actions that drive these altcoin rallies right

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so sometimes

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individual alt coins just have their own stories yeah

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they have their own fundamentals

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and they're the things that really drive the price up

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okay so give me an example

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um so let's take Ethereum

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remember the Ethereum merged

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that was a big event yeah

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it was big news yeah

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that was when they switch over from proof of work

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to proof of stake right

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and it made the whole system much more energy efficient

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exactly and scalable yeah

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and it LED to a huge price rally for Ethereum

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even though

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it happened during a period when Bitcoin was

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generally dominating

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so even in a Bitcoin dominance year

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yeah an alt coin can still break out

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if it has a really good story

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right if it has strong fundamentals okay

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so it's like a combination of

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the macroeconomic conditions

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yeah and internal project breakthroughs

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right that cause these altcoin rallies exactly

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it's not just about writing the waves

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created by the Fed right

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it's about identifying

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the altcoins that are paddling the hardest

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okay and have the most potential to catch those waves

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out of it

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the article also mentions this analyst named

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Benjamin Cowan from

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into the cryptoverse okay

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and he's been tracking these Bitcoin dominance years

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okay and what has he found

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so his analysis has observed that

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during Bitcoin dominance years

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Bitcoin tends to attract the lion's share investment

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and it draws capital away from alt coins

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so it's like a tug of war yeah

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between Bitcoin and alt coins right

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and the Fed is like the referee

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exact tilting the playing field

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yeah that's a great way to put it

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okay so let's get practical okay

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what are some key takeaways here

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for investors who wanna navigate the crypto world

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first timing is everything okay

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if we are in a bitcoin dominance year

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as Cowan suggests we might be yeah

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it might be wise to lean towards Bitcoin okay

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so if the Fed is tightening and the economy feel shaky

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bitcoin is the safe haven

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that's the idea okay

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bitcoin is like that sturdy

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oak tree that weathers the storm right

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while those more delicate

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alt coins might get blown around a bit okay

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but even during those bitcoin heavy times yeah

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if I am interested in alt coins yeah

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I should look for projects with strong fundamentals

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exactly so remind me what is a strong alt coin

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imagine you're looking at a company stock okay

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you wanna see real world use cases

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you wanna see a solid team behind it

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okay and

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you wanna

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see evidence that the project is actually solving a

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problem got it

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don't chase hype

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look for substance

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so solid fundamentals over fleeting hype right

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okay what else

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pay attention to what the Fed is doing yep

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they're like the conductors of the economic orchestra

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okay and their actions send

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ripple effects throughout the markets

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so what should we be watching for

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keep an eye out for things like interest rate cuts

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and balance Xi expansions okay

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these are signs that

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the Fed is loosening its grip on the money supply right

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and that tends to signal a potential alt coin season

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so we should be checking the global liquidity index

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regularly yeah

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exactly got it

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the article also mentions something called

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thinking in Bitcoin terms yes

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what does that mean so

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instead of just looking at an alt coins price

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in US dollars what can be deceiving okay

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you should analyze it in relation to Bitcoin okay

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so give me an example

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let's say an alt coins price is going up in dollars

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it might seem like it's performing really well right

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but then when you check its price chart against Bitcoin

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yeah

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you notice it's actually flatlining or even declining

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so what does that tell me

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it means that it's not actually gaining value

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oh it's just being pulled along by

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Bitcoin's overall market movement

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so it's not really performing well on its own

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exactly it's just being kind of propped up by Bitcoin

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yeah it's like a boat being lifted by the tide

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rather than powered by its own engine

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oh that's a good analogy yeah

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so thinking in bitcoin terms

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can be a very powerful tool

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okay so we've got these four year bitcoin cycles

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driven by these having events right

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we've got

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the Fed playing a surprisingly influential role

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in crypto markets yeah

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and we've got some

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actionable advice here for investors

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to help them navigate these cyclical patterns

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created from thoughtful research

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meaningful insights into finance and beyond

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welcome to Episode 4

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where we explore October's shockingly low job numbers

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just 12,000 new jobs added

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and unpack what this could mean for the economy

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Federal Reserve actions and bitcoins performance

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join us as we dive into the potential ripple

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effects for markets and your financial outlook

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disclosure

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this podcast is for informational purposes only

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and not financial advice

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please consult a professional for financial decisions

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alright so you ready to like

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really just dive into this jobs report

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oh yeah because it's a doozy for sure

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October 2024 came in way lower than expected

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uh huh and now

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it feels like everyone's kind of like

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parsing all this data yeah

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you know yeah

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trying to figure out if this is just a blip

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or a sign of like

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something bigger looming on the horizon

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definitely a case study in how like

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one single data point can send these like ripples

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oh yeah through the entire market

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and uh yeah

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you've

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brought a stack of sources that offer some fascinating

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yeah and sometimes conflicting perspectives

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yeah what it all means exactly

282
00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:26,600
so let's break it down okay

283
00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:30,066
first up we've got this image labeled Joby s report

284
00:01:30,066 --> 00:01:32,366
okay just looking at the numbers

285
00:01:32,700 --> 00:01:38,100
that initial reading of 12,000 jobs added is pretty

286
00:01:38,100 --> 00:01:39,566
dismal ah

287
00:01:39,566 --> 00:01:41,333
and the revisions to previous months

288
00:01:41,333 --> 00:01:42,933
make it even more confusing

289
00:01:42,933 --> 00:01:44,800
wow some of those numbers swung by

290
00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:46,366
tens of thousands of jobs

291
00:01:46,366 --> 00:01:48,766
that's what makes the situation so interesting right

292
00:01:48,766 --> 00:01:50,566
it's not just the low number itself

293
00:01:50,566 --> 00:01:53,100
but it's the uncertainty that it creates right

294
00:01:53,100 --> 00:01:55,500
these revisions were unusually large

295
00:01:55,500 --> 00:01:57,933
okay and importantly downward

296
00:01:57,933 --> 00:01:59,900
wow that suggests that

297
00:01:59,900 --> 00:02:02,166
even the data we thought we had was off

298
00:02:02,166 --> 00:02:03,166
oh jeez

299
00:02:03,166 --> 00:02:04,900
adding another layer of complexity

300
00:02:04,900 --> 00:02:06,800
for anyone trying to predict

301
00:02:06,866 --> 00:02:08,133
where the economy is headed

302
00:02:08,133 --> 00:02:11,400
okay so we've got this like initial shock to the system

303
00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,733
right what I found really interesting was

304
00:02:13,733 --> 00:02:16,133
looking at the manufacturing jobs

305
00:02:16,133 --> 00:02:17,933
monthly change image okay

306
00:02:17,933 --> 00:02:20,766
you can see those green bars of growth and then Bam

307
00:02:20,766 --> 00:02:23,166
red bars of decline and lately

308
00:02:23,166 --> 00:02:26,066
those red bars have been getting pretty intense

309
00:02:26,266 --> 00:02:29,366
manufacturing is often seen as like an early indicator

310
00:02:29,366 --> 00:02:31,400
yeah of economic health okay

311
00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,666
if businesses are feeling uncertain

312
00:02:33,666 --> 00:02:35,800
yeah one of the first things they do is

313
00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:37,166
scale back production right

314
00:02:37,166 --> 00:02:39,333
leading to job losses in that sector

315
00:02:39,333 --> 00:02:42,166
uh huh so the volatility we're seeing here is yeah

316
00:02:42,166 --> 00:02:43,600
a definite cause for concern

317
00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:45,166
okay that makes sense

318
00:02:45,166 --> 00:02:46,933
but what I'm wondering is yeah

319
00:02:46,933 --> 00:02:50,000
could this just be a manufacturing specific issue

320
00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,233
hmm or is it a canary in the coal mine

321
00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:54,900
for the broader economy

322
00:02:54,900 --> 00:02:56,333
that's the million dollar question

323
00:02:56,333 --> 00:02:57,166
isn't it yeah

324
00:02:57,166 --> 00:02:59,700
and it's where things get really interesting okay

325
00:02:59,700 --> 00:03:04,333
you've got this excerpt from GB Yuan t XO a e

326
00:03:04,333 --> 00:03:06,800
four plk dot PDF okay

327
00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,300
that outlines some potential market reactions okay

328
00:03:09,300 --> 00:03:11,466
let's see if those offer any clues exactly

329
00:03:11,466 --> 00:03:11,866
and this

330
00:03:11,866 --> 00:03:14,466
excerpt lays out a whole range of possibilities

331
00:03:14,666 --> 00:03:17,066
from a knee jerk sell off in equity markets

332
00:03:17,066 --> 00:03:19,500
yeah to a potential rebound

333
00:03:19,566 --> 00:03:22,166
as investors anticipate lower interest rates

334
00:03:22,166 --> 00:03:25,866
yeah it even mentions the US dollar weakening yeah

335
00:03:25,866 --> 00:03:28,133
which could actually benefit exporters right

336
00:03:28,133 --> 00:03:29,500
it's like everyone is trying to guess

337
00:03:29,500 --> 00:03:31,300
which way the wind will blow next totally

338
00:03:31,300 --> 00:03:32,733
but what I find fascinating

339
00:03:32,733 --> 00:03:35,300
is how the sources connect this job report

340
00:03:35,466 --> 00:03:38,166
to the bigger picture of monetary policy okay

341
00:03:38,166 --> 00:03:39,200
for example

342
00:03:39,266 --> 00:03:41,900
you've got this expert in transcript dot PDF

343
00:03:42,366 --> 00:03:43,333
who argues

344
00:03:43,333 --> 00:03:46,300
that the recent 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed

345
00:03:46,300 --> 00:03:49,766
yeah might not be the guaranteed bullmarket signal

346
00:03:49,766 --> 00:03:51,733
right some people are taking it to be yeah

347
00:03:51,733 --> 00:03:54,300
they seem to be saying don't get too excited just yet

348
00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:56,900
right they actually argue that the market

349
00:03:56,900 --> 00:03:58,733
overreacted to that rate cut

350
00:03:58,733 --> 00:04:01,866
okay and that the Fed's long term strategy right

351
00:04:01,866 --> 00:04:05,333
which hinges on data like inflation and unemployment

352
00:04:05,333 --> 00:04:07,266
hmm is still up in the air

353
00:04:07,266 --> 00:04:09,500
what's particularly interesting is their second point

354
00:04:09,500 --> 00:04:12,300
okay that while historically yeah

355
00:04:12,300 --> 00:04:15,666
aggressive rate cuts are correlated with recessions

356
00:04:15,666 --> 00:04:18,933
uh huh it's not a foolproof predictor right

357
00:04:18,933 --> 00:04:23,300
they even highlight data pointing to a 61% probability

358
00:04:23,533 --> 00:04:26,866
of a recession before August 2025

359
00:04:26,866 --> 00:04:29,733
okay but that still leaves a 39%

360
00:04:29,733 --> 00:04:31,400
chance of avoiding one altogether

361
00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:34,533
okay so we've got conflicting expert opinions right

362
00:04:34,533 --> 00:04:35,966
a volatile jobs report

363
00:04:35,966 --> 00:04:38,333
and potential market swings in every direction

364
00:04:38,333 --> 00:04:40,600
yeah it's enough to make anyone's head spin told yeah

365
00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:41,900
where do we even go from here

366
00:04:41,900 --> 00:04:44,566
well you've also included some excerpts from Bitcoin

367
00:04:44,566 --> 00:04:46,700
and labormarket dot PDF okay

368
00:04:46,700 --> 00:04:49,166
that offer a different angle on this whole situation

369
00:04:49,166 --> 00:04:50,766
okay this expert points out that

370
00:04:50,766 --> 00:04:52,366
the overall unemployment rate

371
00:04:52,366 --> 00:04:53,966
actually dipped okay

372
00:04:53,966 --> 00:04:55,866
to 4.1% alright

373
00:04:55,866 --> 00:05:00,100
down from 4.3% seemingly good news yeah

374
00:05:00,100 --> 00:05:02,066
they also note that permanent job losses

375
00:05:02,066 --> 00:05:03,533
while increasing uh huh

376
00:05:03,533 --> 00:05:05,966
haven't spiked like in past recessions

377
00:05:06,500 --> 00:05:08,000
that's a good point yeah

378
00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,333
but then they throw in this counterpoint yeah

379
00:05:10,333 --> 00:05:13,000
even with overall unemployment down

380
00:05:13,533 --> 00:05:16,466
certain groups like new entrance to the workforce

381
00:05:16,466 --> 00:05:18,966
right are having a much harder time finding jobs

382
00:05:18,966 --> 00:05:21,266
and that's the nuance we need to pay attention to

383
00:05:21,266 --> 00:05:22,300
yeah right

384
00:05:22,300 --> 00:05:24,133
this expert suggests that

385
00:05:24,133 --> 00:05:26,766
fewer people quitting their jobs okay

386
00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:28,733
might actually be a sign of fear

387
00:05:28,733 --> 00:05:30,500
not stability interesting

388
00:05:30,500 --> 00:05:33,433
they might be clinging to their current positions

389
00:05:33,566 --> 00:05:35,733
because they're worried about finding new ones

390
00:05:35,733 --> 00:05:37,400
in this uncertain economy

391
00:05:37,466 --> 00:05:40,600
so even seemingly positive data

392
00:05:40,733 --> 00:05:42,466
can have a darker undercurrent

393
00:05:42,466 --> 00:05:44,733
exactly and it highlights something crucial

394
00:05:44,733 --> 00:05:47,066
what's that markets are forward looking okay

395
00:05:47,066 --> 00:05:49,633
even if the labor market seems okay right now

396
00:05:49,766 --> 00:05:50,400
investors

397
00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:52,766
are more concerned with what's coming in the next 6

398
00:05:52,766 --> 00:05:54,366
12 months right

399
00:05:54,366 --> 00:05:55,933
that's where the real anxiety

400
00:05:55,933 --> 00:05:58,600
yeah and the potentially opportunity lies

401
00:05:58,600 --> 00:05:59,333
totally so

402
00:05:59,333 --> 00:05:59,600
it's like

403
00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:01,500
we're looking at this economic puzzle with like

404
00:06:01,500 --> 00:06:03,000
two sets of lenses right

405
00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:05,966
one that focuses on like the overall numbers

406
00:06:05,966 --> 00:06:06,266
uh huh

407
00:06:06,266 --> 00:06:07,366
and another that like

408
00:06:07,366 --> 00:06:10,500
zooms in on the experiences of specific groups exactly

409
00:06:10,566 --> 00:06:11,700
it's a reminder that data

410
00:06:11,700 --> 00:06:13,166
can tell very different stories

411
00:06:13,166 --> 00:06:14,600
depending on how you interpret it

412
00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,766
and that brings us back to those expert opinions

413
00:06:16,766 --> 00:06:17,666
you pulled okay

414
00:06:17,666 --> 00:06:19,800
the expert in transcript dot PDF

415
00:06:20,133 --> 00:06:24,733
who argued against the like rate cut rally mindset

416
00:06:24,733 --> 00:06:27,766
yeah made a point that stuck with me okay

417
00:06:27,766 --> 00:06:29,100
they said uh

418
00:06:29,100 --> 00:06:30,933
the market may have jumped the gun

419
00:06:30,933 --> 00:06:33,300
celebrating the feds 50 bases point cut right

420
00:06:33,300 --> 00:06:33,733
like maybe

421
00:06:33,733 --> 00:06:34,200
a ray cut

422
00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:36,200
isn't always a straight shot to a bull market

423
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:39,600
exactly they emphasize that focusing on the feds

424
00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,033
long term strategy is key

425
00:06:42,066 --> 00:06:45,066
OK and that strategy hinges on things like inflation

426
00:06:45,066 --> 00:06:46,366
and unemployment right

427
00:06:46,366 --> 00:06:49,200
those are the indicators that will truly shape the feds

428
00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:52,900
decisions going forward but we need to be careful about

429
00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,800
reading too much into any single action by the Fed

430
00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,300
yeah it's about understanding their overall approach

431
00:06:58,300 --> 00:07:00,933
exactly not just reacting to every move they make

432
00:07:00,933 --> 00:07:02,333
precisely and what's fascinating

433
00:07:02,333 --> 00:07:05,700
is that this expert also provided a counter argument

434
00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:07,100
to their own point right

435
00:07:07,100 --> 00:07:08,733
highlighting that while

436
00:07:08,733 --> 00:07:11,733
aggressive rate cuts have often preceded recessions

437
00:07:11,733 --> 00:07:14,000
yeah it's not a guaranteed outcome right

438
00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:15,366
the even referenced data

439
00:07:15,366 --> 00:07:19,400
showing a 61% probability of a recession

440
00:07:19,566 --> 00:07:21,866
before August 2025

441
00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,400
but then they flip the script by reminding us

442
00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,800
that means there's still a 39% chance of eno recession

443
00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:29,200
exactly it really makes

444
00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:31,800
you question whether all the doomogloom is warranted

445
00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,266
it's a brilliant way to encourage critical thinking

446
00:07:34,266 --> 00:07:36,866
yeah they're not saying a recession is impossible

447
00:07:36,966 --> 00:07:38,900
but rather forcing us to confront

448
00:07:38,900 --> 00:07:41,100
the fact that the future is uncertain

449
00:07:41,100 --> 00:07:43,300
okay and that uncertainty itself

450
00:07:43,300 --> 00:07:45,166
can be a powerful market force

451
00:07:45,166 --> 00:07:48,100
okay so we've got these mixed signals from the experts

452
00:07:48,100 --> 00:07:50,300
right and the economic data itself

453
00:07:50,300 --> 00:07:50,800
yeah

454
00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:52,966
let's circle back to those potential market reactions

455
00:07:52,966 --> 00:07:56,133
from GBU on t e x o a E

456
00:07:56,133 --> 00:07:58,966
FF for plk dot PDF okay

457
00:07:58,966 --> 00:08:00,866
we talked about everything from a sell off

458
00:08:00,866 --> 00:08:02,100
and equity markets yeah

459
00:08:02,100 --> 00:08:03,733
to a potential rebound yeah

460
00:08:03,733 --> 00:08:05,466
even the US dollar weakening

461
00:08:05,466 --> 00:08:07,800
it's like a choose your own adventure for investors

462
00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:08,866
isn't it totally

463
00:08:08,966 --> 00:08:10,666
but what I find most intriguing

464
00:08:10,666 --> 00:08:10,933
is

465
00:08:10,933 --> 00:08:14,300
how these reactions are linked to investor psychology

466
00:08:14,333 --> 00:08:15,466
okay for example

467
00:08:15,466 --> 00:08:18,300
the excerpt mentions bond yields potentially dropping

468
00:08:18,300 --> 00:08:22,166
right as investors seek the perceived safety of bonds

469
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,533
ah that classic flight to safety move

470
00:08:24,533 --> 00:08:26,566
everyone runs to bombs when they get spooked

471
00:08:26,566 --> 00:08:27,400
exactly

472
00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,100
but what will determine the intensity of that flight

473
00:08:30,100 --> 00:08:31,900
yeah is this jobs report

474
00:08:31,900 --> 00:08:34,366
enough to trigger a full blown panic right

475
00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:36,333
that's where things get really interesting okay

476
00:08:36,333 --> 00:08:38,233
cause if investors do get spooked

477
00:08:38,333 --> 00:08:40,533
it's not just bonds they'll flock to right

478
00:08:40,533 --> 00:08:43,700
we could see a surge in demand for other safe haven

479
00:08:43,700 --> 00:08:45,100
assets like gold right

480
00:08:45,100 --> 00:08:47,000
gold the ultimate security blanket

481
00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:48,800
when the markets get turbulent

482
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,766
precisely and that brings us to an interesting question

483
00:08:51,766 --> 00:08:54,166
if we do see this flight to safety

484
00:08:54,466 --> 00:08:55,966
how might it play out differently

485
00:08:55,966 --> 00:08:58,466
in the world of crypto interesting

486
00:08:58,466 --> 00:09:01,000
remember those excerpts from Bitcoin and Labor Market

487
00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:02,400
but PDF you brought oh yeah

488
00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:04,766
this expert had some fascinating points about how

489
00:09:04,766 --> 00:09:07,266
Bitcoin tends to perform in Q4 right

490
00:09:07,266 --> 00:09:08,500
historically at least yeah

491
00:09:08,500 --> 00:09:10,666
they pointed out that it's often a strong period

492
00:09:10,666 --> 00:09:11,966
for Bitcoin okay

493
00:09:11,966 --> 00:09:12,533
potentially

494
00:09:12,533 --> 00:09:15,100
due to increased investment from both individuals

495
00:09:15,100 --> 00:09:17,166
and institutions that's right

496
00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:17,400
but

497
00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,400
they also cautioned that this time might be different

498
00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,600
oh given the uncertain economic backdrop right

499
00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:26,333
if traditional markets are volatile yeah

500
00:09:26,333 --> 00:09:29,066
that could spill over into the cryptoworld as well

501
00:09:29,166 --> 00:09:32,100
so even if bitcoin has a history of Q4 rallies

502
00:09:32,100 --> 00:09:32,900
hmm

503
00:09:33,266 --> 00:09:35,966
this current situation throws a ranch into things

504
00:09:35,966 --> 00:09:36,600
exactly

505
00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:40,000
and they also discuss this concept of Bitcoin dominance

506
00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,866
okay which basically measures Bitcoin's market share

507
00:09:42,866 --> 00:09:44,933
relative to other cryptocurrencies

508
00:09:44,933 --> 00:09:47,566
so if bitcoin dominance is rising yeah

509
00:09:47,566 --> 00:09:48,100
that means

510
00:09:48,100 --> 00:09:50,500
Bitcoin is outperforming other cryptocurrencies right

511
00:09:50,500 --> 00:09:52,133
and this expert believes that

512
00:09:52,133 --> 00:09:55,166
Bitcoin dominance could actually increase in Q4 okay

513
00:09:55,166 --> 00:09:57,500
potentially even reaching 60% wow

514
00:09:57,500 --> 00:09:59,766
as investors view it as a safer bet

515
00:09:59,766 --> 00:10:01,833
amidst the economic uncertainty

516
00:10:01,866 --> 00:10:03,200
so it's like a flight to safety

517
00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,566
within the crypto world itself yeah

518
00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:07,200
bitcoin becomes the digital gold

519
00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:09,100
that's one way to think about it okay

520
00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:11,966
but even if bitcoin dominance rises yeah

521
00:10:11,966 --> 00:10:14,800
it doesn't guarantee that Bitcoin's price will go up

522
00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:16,566
right it simply means it's

523
00:10:16,566 --> 00:10:19,800
outperforming other cryptocurrencies okay

524
00:10:19,866 --> 00:10:22,966
that makes sense so what does this all mean for like

525
00:10:23,166 --> 00:10:24,766
you know right listener

526
00:10:24,766 --> 00:10:25,200
yeah

527
00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,766
who's been diligently diving deep with us into this

528
00:10:29,133 --> 00:10:30,733
mountain of information I think

529
00:10:30,733 --> 00:10:32,200
the biggest take away here is

530
00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:34,100
the importance of perspective okay

531
00:10:34,100 --> 00:10:38,000
we've seen how the same data can be interpreted in

532
00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:39,966
vastly different ways yeah

533
00:10:39,966 --> 00:10:42,500
leading to a range of potential outcomes

534
00:10:42,500 --> 00:10:44,933
it's a reminder that economics is not a crystal ball

535
00:10:44,933 --> 00:10:47,466
right it's about analyzing trends

536
00:10:48,066 --> 00:10:49,866
understanding the forces at play

537
00:10:50,133 --> 00:10:51,733
and then making informed decisions

538
00:10:51,733 --> 00:10:54,400
based on your own individual circumstances exactly

539
00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,200
and that's why it's so crucial to

540
00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:58,266
engage with the information critically

541
00:10:58,266 --> 00:11:01,366
yep don't just accept headlines at face value right

542
00:11:01,366 --> 00:11:03,000
dive deeper okay

543
00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,866
challenge assumptions and seek out diverse perspectives

544
00:11:06,866 --> 00:11:09,100
and remember you don't have to have all the answers

545
00:11:09,100 --> 00:11:11,433
right even the experts we've discussed

546
00:11:11,500 --> 00:11:13,966
disagree on how this will all play out exactly

547
00:11:13,966 --> 00:11:14,333
it's about

548
00:11:14,333 --> 00:11:16,466
understanding the complexity of the situation

549
00:11:16,466 --> 00:11:16,966
yeah

550
00:11:16,966 --> 00:11:19,500
and then making decisions that align with your own risk

551
00:11:19,500 --> 00:11:21,666
tolerance and financial goals

552
00:11:21,666 --> 00:11:23,100
that's an excellent point yeah

553
00:11:23,100 --> 00:11:25,366
it's about empowering yourself to be an

554
00:11:25,366 --> 00:11:27,200
active participant okay

555
00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:28,366
in your financial journey

556
00:11:28,366 --> 00:11:30,500
yeah not just a passive observer

557
00:11:30,566 --> 00:11:32,133
so be curious right

558
00:11:32,133 --> 00:11:33,400
be informed yeah

559
00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,666
and most importantly be engaged totally

560
00:11:35,666 --> 00:11:37,400
this is your financial future

561
00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,733
yeah and you have the power to shape it

562
00:11:39,733 --> 00:11:41,200
that's a great point to end on

563
00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:43,933
alright thanks for joining us on this deep dive

564
00:11:43,933 --> 00:11:44,800
it's been a pleasure

565
00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:48,000
exploring this complex and fascinating topic with you

566
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:49,533
yeah and to our listeners

567
00:11:49,533 --> 00:11:51,300
thanks for diving deep of us for sure

568
00:11:51,300 --> 00:11:53,533
we'll see you next time see ya okay

569
00:11:53,533 --> 00:11:57,566
so we've explored this jobs report from like all angles

570
00:11:57,766 --> 00:11:59,066
the raw numbers yeah

571
00:11:59,066 --> 00:12:02,700
expert opinions potential market reactions

572
00:12:02,700 --> 00:12:04,700
even what it might mean for crypto

573
00:12:05,066 --> 00:12:08,166
but I keep coming back to this one idea yeah

574
00:12:08,533 --> 00:12:10,166
markets are forward looking right

575
00:12:10,166 --> 00:12:10,333
so

576
00:12:10,333 --> 00:12:13,200
what exactly are they looking for in the months ahead

577
00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:14,900
that's a great question yeah

578
00:12:14,900 --> 00:12:16,600
and it brings us to the heart of what makes

579
00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:18,866
the situation so fascinating okay

580
00:12:18,866 --> 00:12:21,700
the October jobs report itself was a bit of a shock

581
00:12:21,700 --> 00:12:24,766
yeah but it's really just one data point okay

582
00:12:24,766 --> 00:12:27,766
in a much larger economic narrative okay

583
00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:29,800
what markets are trying to decipher

584
00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:31,733
is whether this report signals

585
00:12:31,733 --> 00:12:33,766
like a turning point right

586
00:12:33,766 --> 00:12:36,066
or if it's just a blip on the radar

587
00:12:36,066 --> 00:12:38,666
so it's like we're in this in between space yeah

588
00:12:38,666 --> 00:12:40,766
where anything is possible totally

589
00:12:40,766 --> 00:12:42,566
we could be on the verge of a recession

590
00:12:42,966 --> 00:12:45,133
or we could see things pick back up right

591
00:12:45,133 --> 00:12:47,733
and that uncertainty is making everyone nervous

592
00:12:47,733 --> 00:12:48,500
exactly

593
00:12:48,500 --> 00:12:51,100
and that nervousness can translate into volatility

594
00:12:51,100 --> 00:12:52,466
as we've discussed right

595
00:12:52,466 --> 00:12:53,933
but what's interesting is that this

596
00:12:53,933 --> 00:12:56,666
uncertainty also creates opportunity okay

597
00:12:56,666 --> 00:12:59,466
if you can accurately anticipate

598
00:12:59,533 --> 00:13:01,766
which way the economy is headed

599
00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:05,166
you can potentially position yourself to benefit okay

600
00:13:05,166 --> 00:13:07,533
so let's put on our prognovticator hats for a moment

601
00:13:07,533 --> 00:13:10,166
yeah what are some of the key indicators

602
00:13:10,166 --> 00:13:12,800
we should be watching in the coming months yeah

603
00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:14,900
to get a better sense of where things are going

604
00:13:15,266 --> 00:13:17,600
well the most obvious one is the next jobs report

605
00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:18,600
of course right

606
00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,366
will we see another week number yeah

607
00:13:21,366 --> 00:13:23,300
confirming a downward trend

608
00:13:23,300 --> 00:13:25,566
okay or will it bounce back

609
00:13:25,566 --> 00:13:28,800
suggesting that October was just an anomaly right

610
00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,066
that's the big one but what else

611
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:32,700
what other data points

612
00:13:32,700 --> 00:13:34,966
could give us clues about the economy's health

613
00:13:34,966 --> 00:13:37,666
inflation is another key factor okay

614
00:13:37,866 --> 00:13:38,366
remember that

615
00:13:38,366 --> 00:13:42,800
the Fed is laser focused on bringing inflation down

616
00:13:42,866 --> 00:13:44,333
to their target level right

617
00:13:44,333 --> 00:13:46,166
if inflation continues to rise

618
00:13:46,166 --> 00:13:47,600
or even if it plateaus

619
00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:49,466
at a higher level than the Fed wants

620
00:13:49,700 --> 00:13:52,200
that could force them to take more aggressive action

621
00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:52,566
okay

622
00:13:52,566 --> 00:13:55,000
which could have a ripple effect throughout the economy

623
00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,133
so we need to keep an eye on those inflation reports

624
00:13:57,133 --> 00:13:59,466
just as closely as the job's numbers

625
00:13:59,466 --> 00:14:02,666
absolutely and beyond those headline numbers

626
00:14:02,866 --> 00:14:06,600
it's also worth paying attention to consumer confidence

627
00:14:06,933 --> 00:14:09,366
if people are feeling good about the economy

628
00:14:09,766 --> 00:14:11,966
they're more likely to spend money

629
00:14:11,966 --> 00:14:13,600
which drives growth yeah

630
00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,066
but if they're feeling uncertain or pessimistic

631
00:14:16,066 --> 00:14:18,366
they might pull back on spending okay

632
00:14:18,366 --> 00:14:19,933
which could slow things down

633
00:14:19,933 --> 00:14:21,066
it's all connected isn't it

634
00:14:21,066 --> 00:14:23,366
exactly the jobs market inflation

635
00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:24,866
consumer confidence yeah

636
00:14:24,866 --> 00:14:26,466
they all influence each other

637
00:14:26,466 --> 00:14:28,466
it's a complex system yeah

638
00:14:28,466 --> 00:14:31,600
and it's impossible to isolate any one factor

639
00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:32,900
in a vacuum right

640
00:14:32,900 --> 00:14:35,500
that's why it's so important to take a holistic view

641
00:14:35,500 --> 00:14:38,500
okay and consider all of the available information

642
00:14:38,500 --> 00:14:39,266
okay so

643
00:14:39,266 --> 00:14:40,933
we've got a lot to watch in the coming months

644
00:14:40,933 --> 00:14:41,166
yeah

645
00:14:41,166 --> 00:14:43,666
but let's bring it back to this idea of opportunity

646
00:14:43,666 --> 00:14:44,300
okay

647
00:14:44,300 --> 00:14:46,966
you mention that uncertainty can create opportunity

648
00:14:46,966 --> 00:14:47,333
right

649
00:14:47,333 --> 00:14:50,300
for those who can accurately anticipate the future

650
00:14:50,666 --> 00:14:52,300
what are some potential scenarios

651
00:14:52,300 --> 00:14:53,900
that investors might be considering

652
00:14:53,900 --> 00:14:54,700
right now

653
00:14:55,300 --> 00:14:56,733
well one scenario is that

654
00:14:56,733 --> 00:14:58,100
the economy proves to be

655
00:14:58,100 --> 00:15:00,466
more resilient than many people fear

656
00:15:00,466 --> 00:15:03,400
maybe the October jobs report was just a blip

657
00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,100
right and the underlying fundamentals are still strong

658
00:15:06,100 --> 00:15:07,733
yeah if that's the case

659
00:15:07,733 --> 00:15:10,866
we could see a continuation of the bull market

660
00:15:11,066 --> 00:15:13,233
with stocks continuing to rise

661
00:15:13,300 --> 00:15:15,966
and interest rates remaining relatively low

662
00:15:15,966 --> 00:15:17,266
so in that scenario

663
00:15:17,266 --> 00:15:19,300
staying invested in the market would be

664
00:15:19,500 --> 00:15:21,000
winning strategy exactly

665
00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,566
but of course there's also the opposite scenario

666
00:15:23,566 --> 00:15:24,000
right

667
00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,800
that the economy does indeed slip into a recession okay

668
00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:28,700
if that happens

669
00:15:28,700 --> 00:15:31,166
we could see a sharp decline in stock prices

670
00:15:31,166 --> 00:15:34,133
yeah as investors flee to safety right

671
00:15:34,133 --> 00:15:36,000
in that environment bonds

672
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:36,533
gold

673
00:15:36,533 --> 00:15:39,366
and other safe haven assets would likely outperform

674
00:15:39,500 --> 00:15:41,533
so being prepared for both scenarios is key

675
00:15:41,533 --> 00:15:44,100
yeah don't put all your eggs in one basket

676
00:15:44,166 --> 00:15:45,600
as the saying goes precisely

677
00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,733
diversification is always important right

678
00:15:47,733 --> 00:15:49,366
but it becomes even more crucial

679
00:15:49,366 --> 00:15:50,966
during times of uncertainty

680
00:15:51,266 --> 00:15:54,666
so we've covered a lot of ground in this deep dive yeah

681
00:15:54,666 --> 00:15:56,366
we've analyzed the jobs report

682
00:15:56,533 --> 00:15:58,333
dissected expert opinions

683
00:15:58,333 --> 00:16:00,600
right explored potential market reactions

684
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,766
and even ventured into the world of crypto

685
00:16:02,866 --> 00:16:04,333
it's been a journey it has

686
00:16:04,333 --> 00:16:05,700
what's the ultimate takeaway

687
00:16:05,700 --> 00:16:06,500
yeah for you

688
00:16:06,500 --> 00:16:08,366
the listener who's been on this journey with us

689
00:16:08,366 --> 00:16:10,900
I think the most important message is this okay

690
00:16:10,900 --> 00:16:12,900
knowledge is power okay

691
00:16:12,900 --> 00:16:14,900
the more you understand about the forces

692
00:16:14,900 --> 00:16:16,966
shaping the economy in the markets

693
00:16:16,966 --> 00:16:18,966
uh huh the better equipped you'll be

694
00:16:18,966 --> 00:16:21,266
to navigate these turbulent times

695
00:16:21,266 --> 00:16:23,733
don't be afraid to challenge conventional wisdom

696
00:16:23,733 --> 00:16:24,600
right 2

697
00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:27,366
ask tough questions and to form your own conclusions

698
00:16:27,366 --> 00:16:28,766
exactly and remember

699
00:16:28,766 --> 00:16:31,166
even in the face of uncertainty

700
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,300
yeah there's always opportunity

701
00:16:33,300 --> 00:16:35,333
for those who are willing to do their homework

702
00:16:35,333 --> 00:16:37,166
okay and stay ahead of the curve

703
00:16:37,166 --> 00:16:39,133
so stay curious yeah

704
00:16:39,133 --> 00:16:41,266
stay informed and most importantly

705
00:16:41,266 --> 00:16:42,966
stay engaged absolutely

706
00:16:42,966 --> 00:16:45,266
the future of the economy is being written right now

707
00:16:45,266 --> 00:16:48,266
it is and you have a role to play in shaving it

708
00:16:48,266 --> 00:16:49,566
that's a great point to end on

709
00:16:49,566 --> 00:16:51,800
thanks for joining us on this deep dive

710
00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:52,600
it's been a pleasure

711
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,466
exploring this complex and fascinating topic with you

712
00:16:55,466 --> 00:16:57,333
for sure and to our listeners

713
00:16:57,333 --> 00:16:58,966
thanks for diving deep with us

714
00:16:58,966 --> 00:17:00,766
we'll see you next time see you see you later