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in today's episode 3 will make it clear
Bitcoin surging its dominance near at 73 grand
its hit the spot near all time highs
but now what
we'll dive into cycles liquidity tight
why Bitcoin shines in this kind of light
alt coins falter as dollars are cut
monetary shifts ahead but now what
whether you're seasoned or just taking a shot
join us to see what's next in the plot
navigate the cycles the twists and the knot
bitcoin soaring high but now what
hey everyone and welcome back for another deep dive
yeah it's great to be back
today we're going exploring the world of cryptocurrency
woo exciting
but with a twist a twist
we're gonna be talking about how cryptocurrency
is influenced by the Federal Reserve interesting
so today our guide is this article called Bitcoin
Cyclical Patterns
and the impact of Monetary Policy on alt coins
okay by chaos of money
all right um
and so
I'm sure most of our listeners have heard of Bitcoin
right but have you ever noticed that
it kind of goes through these like
boom and bust cycles yeah
and then we have all these other cryptocurrencies
like alt coins yeah
and it seems like sometimes they just explode in value
out of nowhere it really does seem random
yeah sometimes
so what's fascinating is that these two worlds
that seem very separate yeah
are actually really connected
yeah and the feds actions
like adjusting interest rates
and controlling how much money is circulating
have a surprising impact on these crypto cycles
yeah so let's break the stone first
can you tell me about this Bitcoin
four year cycle thing yeah
so the article mentions these having events
okay
where the reward for mining bitcoin gets cut in half
every four years so imagine that you're a gold miner
and every four years
the amount of gold you find in each nugget
gets cut in half okay
you'd have to work twice as hard to get
the same amount of gold right
well
that's essentially what happens with Bitcoin having
oh wow it creates this predictable pattern of scarcity
and as you know yeah
historically when something becomes scarcer
its value tends to rise right
supply and demand exactly
so left bitcoins entering the market
yeah and then boom
the price goes up yeah
but the article dies a little bit deeper than that
okay and talks about bitcoin dominance years okay
what's that all about so
the article
kind of breaks the 4 year cycle down even further
okay and suggests that there are certain years within
the cycle where Bitcoin tends to outperform
um so it suggests that the midterm pre having
and the having year itself are when
bitcoin kind of rains supreme
so it's Bitcoin's time to shine
yeah during these years
yeah and then it's outperforming all those old coins
right so
there are times when
it would be more advantageous to be bitcoin heavy
yeah in a portfolio
that's the idea the article puts forward
and this is where the Fed comes in yeah
so picture this
the Fed decides to tighten monetary policy
okay and essentially
they're like a giant vacuum sucking up liquidity
yeah out of the system right
so what happens then
well people get nervous
right and investors get anxious
and they tend to flock to
what they perceive as the safest asset
in the crypto world so bitcoin
bitcoin exactly
it's like the gold standard of crypto
yeah you could say that
so Bitcoin's dominance rises
during these periods of tightening
yeah but what about all those other cryptos
the alt coins yeah
when do they get their time to shine
so that's when we enter alt season
alt season yeah
okay and it's this period where all of sudden
alternative cryptocurrencies are alt coins
start to outperform okay
and it's typically when the Fed
loosens its grip on monetary policy
okay and pumps more money into the system
increasing global liquidity
so it's like the Fed is throwing a party
exactly and everyone's invited
everyone's invited especially those risky
more speculative old coins
especially those okay
yeah because when money is flowing freely
investors feel more adventurous
right and
they're willing to take bigger bets on less
established cryptocurrencies
so everyone wants to be the next bitcoin right
everyone wants to find the next big thing exactly
but the article mentions that it's not just the feds
actions that drive these altcoin rallies right
so sometimes
individual alt coins just have their own stories yeah
they have their own fundamentals
and they're the things that really drive the price up
okay so give me an example
um so let's take Ethereum
remember the Ethereum merged
that was a big event yeah
it was big news yeah
that was when they switch over from proof of work
to proof of stake right
and it made the whole system much more energy efficient
exactly and scalable yeah
and it LED to a huge price rally for Ethereum
even though
it happened during a period when Bitcoin was
generally dominating
so even in a Bitcoin dominance year
yeah an alt coin can still break out
if it has a really good story
right if it has strong fundamentals okay
so it's like a combination of
the macroeconomic conditions
yeah and internal project breakthroughs
right that cause these altcoin rallies exactly
it's not just about writing the waves
created by the Fed right
it's about identifying
the altcoins that are paddling the hardest
okay and have the most potential to catch those waves
out of it
the article also mentions this analyst named
Benjamin Cowan from
into the cryptoverse okay
and he's been tracking these Bitcoin dominance years
okay and what has he found
so his analysis has observed that
during Bitcoin dominance years
Bitcoin tends to attract the lion's share investment
and it draws capital away from alt coins
so it's like a tug of war yeah
between Bitcoin and alt coins right
and the Fed is like the referee
exact tilting the playing field
yeah that's a great way to put it
okay so let's get practical okay
what are some key takeaways here
for investors who wanna navigate the crypto world
first timing is everything okay
if we are in a bitcoin dominance year
as Cowan suggests we might be yeah
it might be wise to lean towards Bitcoin okay
so if the Fed is tightening and the economy feel shaky
bitcoin is the safe haven
that's the idea okay
bitcoin is like that sturdy
oak tree that weathers the storm right
while those more delicate
alt coins might get blown around a bit okay
but even during those bitcoin heavy times yeah
if I am interested in alt coins yeah
I should look for projects with strong fundamentals
exactly so remind me what is a strong alt coin
imagine you're looking at a company stock okay
you wanna see real world use cases
you wanna see a solid team behind it
okay and
you wanna
see evidence that the project is actually solving a
problem got it
don't chase hype
look for substance
so solid fundamentals over fleeting hype right
okay what else
pay attention to what the Fed is doing yep
they're like the conductors of the economic orchestra
okay and their actions send
ripple effects throughout the markets
so what should we be watching for
keep an eye out for things like interest rate cuts
and balance Xi expansions okay
these are signs that
the Fed is loosening its grip on the money supply right
and that tends to signal a potential alt coin season
so we should be checking the global liquidity index
regularly yeah
exactly got it
the article also mentions something called
thinking in Bitcoin terms yes
what does that mean so
instead of just looking at an alt coins price
in US dollars what can be deceiving okay
you should analyze it in relation to Bitcoin okay
so give me an example
let's say an alt coins price is going up in dollars
it might seem like it's performing really well right
but then when you check its price chart against Bitcoin
yeah
you notice it's actually flatlining or even declining
so what does that tell me
it means that it's not actually gaining value
oh it's just being pulled along by
Bitcoin's overall market movement
so it's not really performing well on its own
exactly it's just being kind of propped up by Bitcoin
yeah it's like a boat being lifted by the tide
rather than powered by its own engine
oh that's a good analogy yeah
so thinking in bitcoin terms
can be a very powerful tool
okay so we've got these four year bitcoin cycles
driven by these having events right
we've got
the Fed playing a surprisingly influential role
in crypto markets yeah
and we've got some
actionable advice here for investors
to help them navigate these cyclical patterns
created from thoughtful research
meaningful insights into finance and beyond
welcome to Episode 4
where we explore October's shockingly low job numbers
just 12,000 new jobs added
and unpack what this could mean for the economy
Federal Reserve actions and bitcoins performance
join us as we dive into the potential ripple
effects for markets and your financial outlook
disclosure
this podcast is for informational purposes only
and not financial advice
please consult a professional for financial decisions
alright so you ready to like
really just dive into this jobs report
oh yeah because it's a doozy for sure
October 2024 came in way lower than expected
uh huh and now
it feels like everyone's kind of like
parsing all this data yeah
you know yeah
trying to figure out if this is just a blip
or a sign of like
something bigger looming on the horizon
definitely a case study in how like
one single data point can send these like ripples
oh yeah through the entire market
and uh yeah
you've
brought a stack of sources that offer some fascinating
yeah and sometimes conflicting perspectives
yeah what it all means exactly
so let's break it down okay
first up we've got this image labeled Joby s report
okay just looking at the numbers
that initial reading of 12,000 jobs added is pretty
dismal ah
and the revisions to previous months
make it even more confusing
wow some of those numbers swung by
tens of thousands of jobs
that's what makes the situation so interesting right
it's not just the low number itself
but it's the uncertainty that it creates right
these revisions were unusually large
okay and importantly downward
wow that suggests that
even the data we thought we had was off
oh jeez
adding another layer of complexity
for anyone trying to predict
where the economy is headed
okay so we've got this like initial shock to the system
right what I found really interesting was
looking at the manufacturing jobs
monthly change image okay
you can see those green bars of growth and then Bam
red bars of decline and lately
those red bars have been getting pretty intense
manufacturing is often seen as like an early indicator
yeah of economic health okay
if businesses are feeling uncertain
yeah one of the first things they do is
scale back production right
leading to job losses in that sector
uh huh so the volatility we're seeing here is yeah
a definite cause for concern
okay that makes sense
but what I'm wondering is yeah
could this just be a manufacturing specific issue
hmm or is it a canary in the coal mine
for the broader economy
that's the million dollar question
isn't it yeah
and it's where things get really interesting okay
you've got this excerpt from GB Yuan t XO a e
four plk dot PDF okay
that outlines some potential market reactions okay
let's see if those offer any clues exactly
and this
excerpt lays out a whole range of possibilities
from a knee jerk sell off in equity markets
yeah to a potential rebound
as investors anticipate lower interest rates
yeah it even mentions the US dollar weakening yeah
which could actually benefit exporters right
it's like everyone is trying to guess
which way the wind will blow next totally
but what I find fascinating
is how the sources connect this job report
to the bigger picture of monetary policy okay
for example
you've got this expert in transcript dot PDF
who argues
that the recent 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed
yeah might not be the guaranteed bullmarket signal
right some people are taking it to be yeah
they seem to be saying don't get too excited just yet
right they actually argue that the market
overreacted to that rate cut
okay and that the Fed's long term strategy right
which hinges on data like inflation and unemployment
hmm is still up in the air
what's particularly interesting is their second point
okay that while historically yeah
aggressive rate cuts are correlated with recessions
uh huh it's not a foolproof predictor right
they even highlight data pointing to a 61% probability
of a recession before August 2025
okay but that still leaves a 39%
chance of avoiding one altogether
okay so we've got conflicting expert opinions right
a volatile jobs report
and potential market swings in every direction
yeah it's enough to make anyone's head spin told yeah
where do we even go from here
well you've also included some excerpts from Bitcoin
and labormarket dot PDF okay
that offer a different angle on this whole situation
okay this expert points out that
the overall unemployment rate
actually dipped okay
to 4.1% alright
down from 4.3% seemingly good news yeah
they also note that permanent job losses
while increasing uh huh
haven't spiked like in past recessions
that's a good point yeah
but then they throw in this counterpoint yeah
even with overall unemployment down
certain groups like new entrance to the workforce
right are having a much harder time finding jobs
and that's the nuance we need to pay attention to
yeah right
this expert suggests that
fewer people quitting their jobs okay
might actually be a sign of fear
not stability interesting
they might be clinging to their current positions
because they're worried about finding new ones
in this uncertain economy
so even seemingly positive data
can have a darker undercurrent
exactly and it highlights something crucial
what's that markets are forward looking okay
even if the labor market seems okay right now
investors
are more concerned with what's coming in the next 6
12 months right
that's where the real anxiety
yeah and the potentially opportunity lies
totally so
it's like
we're looking at this economic puzzle with like
two sets of lenses right
one that focuses on like the overall numbers
uh huh
and another that like
zooms in on the experiences of specific groups exactly
it's a reminder that data
can tell very different stories
depending on how you interpret it
and that brings us back to those expert opinions
you pulled okay
the expert in transcript dot PDF
who argued against the like rate cut rally mindset
yeah made a point that stuck with me okay
they said uh
the market may have jumped the gun
celebrating the feds 50 bases point cut right
like maybe
a ray cut
isn't always a straight shot to a bull market
exactly they emphasize that focusing on the feds
long term strategy is key
OK and that strategy hinges on things like inflation
and unemployment right
those are the indicators that will truly shape the feds
decisions going forward but we need to be careful about
reading too much into any single action by the Fed
yeah it's about understanding their overall approach
exactly not just reacting to every move they make
precisely and what's fascinating
is that this expert also provided a counter argument
to their own point right
highlighting that while
aggressive rate cuts have often preceded recessions
yeah it's not a guaranteed outcome right
the even referenced data
showing a 61% probability of a recession
before August 2025
but then they flip the script by reminding us
that means there's still a 39% chance of eno recession
exactly it really makes
you question whether all the doomogloom is warranted
it's a brilliant way to encourage critical thinking
yeah they're not saying a recession is impossible
but rather forcing us to confront
the fact that the future is uncertain
okay and that uncertainty itself
can be a powerful market force
okay so we've got these mixed signals from the experts
right and the economic data itself
yeah
let's circle back to those potential market reactions
from GBU on t e x o a E
FF for plk dot PDF okay
we talked about everything from a sell off
and equity markets yeah
to a potential rebound yeah
even the US dollar weakening
it's like a choose your own adventure for investors
isn't it totally
but what I find most intriguing
is
how these reactions are linked to investor psychology
okay for example
the excerpt mentions bond yields potentially dropping
right as investors seek the perceived safety of bonds
ah that classic flight to safety move
everyone runs to bombs when they get spooked
exactly
but what will determine the intensity of that flight
yeah is this jobs report
enough to trigger a full blown panic right
that's where things get really interesting okay
cause if investors do get spooked
it's not just bonds they'll flock to right
we could see a surge in demand for other safe haven
assets like gold right
gold the ultimate security blanket
when the markets get turbulent
precisely and that brings us to an interesting question
if we do see this flight to safety
how might it play out differently
in the world of crypto interesting
remember those excerpts from Bitcoin and Labor Market
but PDF you brought oh yeah
this expert had some fascinating points about how
Bitcoin tends to perform in Q4 right
historically at least yeah
they pointed out that it's often a strong period
for Bitcoin okay
potentially
due to increased investment from both individuals
and institutions that's right
but
they also cautioned that this time might be different
oh given the uncertain economic backdrop right
if traditional markets are volatile yeah
that could spill over into the cryptoworld as well
so even if bitcoin has a history of Q4 rallies
hmm
this current situation throws a ranch into things
exactly
and they also discuss this concept of Bitcoin dominance
okay which basically measures Bitcoin's market share
relative to other cryptocurrencies
so if bitcoin dominance is rising yeah
that means
Bitcoin is outperforming other cryptocurrencies right
and this expert believes that
Bitcoin dominance could actually increase in Q4 okay
potentially even reaching 60% wow
as investors view it as a safer bet
amidst the economic uncertainty
so it's like a flight to safety
within the crypto world itself yeah
bitcoin becomes the digital gold
that's one way to think about it okay
but even if bitcoin dominance rises yeah
it doesn't guarantee that Bitcoin's price will go up
right it simply means it's
outperforming other cryptocurrencies okay
that makes sense so what does this all mean for like
you know right listener
yeah
who's been diligently diving deep with us into this
mountain of information I think
the biggest take away here is
the importance of perspective okay
we've seen how the same data can be interpreted in
vastly different ways yeah
leading to a range of potential outcomes
it's a reminder that economics is not a crystal ball
right it's about analyzing trends
understanding the forces at play
and then making informed decisions
based on your own individual circumstances exactly
and that's why it's so crucial to
engage with the information critically
yep don't just accept headlines at face value right
dive deeper okay
challenge assumptions and seek out diverse perspectives
and remember you don't have to have all the answers
right even the experts we've discussed
disagree on how this will all play out exactly
it's about
understanding the complexity of the situation
yeah
and then making decisions that align with your own risk
tolerance and financial goals
that's an excellent point yeah
it's about empowering yourself to be an
active participant okay
in your financial journey
yeah not just a passive observer
so be curious right
be informed yeah
and most importantly be engaged totally
this is your financial future
yeah and you have the power to shape it
that's a great point to end on
alright thanks for joining us on this deep dive
it's been a pleasure
exploring this complex and fascinating topic with you
yeah and to our listeners
thanks for diving deep of us for sure
we'll see you next time see ya okay
so we've explored this jobs report from like all angles
the raw numbers yeah
expert opinions potential market reactions
even what it might mean for crypto
but I keep coming back to this one idea yeah
markets are forward looking right
so
what exactly are they looking for in the months ahead
that's a great question yeah
and it brings us to the heart of what makes
the situation so fascinating okay
the October jobs report itself was a bit of a shock
yeah but it's really just one data point okay
in a much larger economic narrative okay
what markets are trying to decipher
is whether this report signals
like a turning point right
or if it's just a blip on the radar
so it's like we're in this in between space yeah
where anything is possible totally
we could be on the verge of a recession
or we could see things pick back up right
and that uncertainty is making everyone nervous
exactly
and that nervousness can translate into volatility
as we've discussed right
but what's interesting is that this
uncertainty also creates opportunity okay
if you can accurately anticipate
which way the economy is headed
you can potentially position yourself to benefit okay
so let's put on our prognovticator hats for a moment
yeah what are some of the key indicators
we should be watching in the coming months yeah
to get a better sense of where things are going
well the most obvious one is the next jobs report
of course right
will we see another week number yeah
confirming a downward trend
okay or will it bounce back
suggesting that October was just an anomaly right
that's the big one but what else
what other data points
could give us clues about the economy's health
inflation is another key factor okay
remember that
the Fed is laser focused on bringing inflation down
to their target level right
if inflation continues to rise
or even if it plateaus
at a higher level than the Fed wants
that could force them to take more aggressive action
okay
which could have a ripple effect throughout the economy
so we need to keep an eye on those inflation reports
just as closely as the job's numbers
absolutely and beyond those headline numbers
it's also worth paying attention to consumer confidence
if people are feeling good about the economy
they're more likely to spend money
which drives growth yeah
but if they're feeling uncertain or pessimistic
they might pull back on spending okay
which could slow things down
it's all connected isn't it
exactly the jobs market inflation
consumer confidence yeah
they all influence each other
it's a complex system yeah
and it's impossible to isolate any one factor
in a vacuum right
that's why it's so important to take a holistic view
okay and consider all of the available information
okay so
we've got a lot to watch in the coming months
yeah
but let's bring it back to this idea of opportunity
okay
you mention that uncertainty can create opportunity
right
for those who can accurately anticipate the future
what are some potential scenarios
that investors might be considering
right now
well one scenario is that
the economy proves to be
more resilient than many people fear
maybe the October jobs report was just a blip
right and the underlying fundamentals are still strong
yeah if that's the case
we could see a continuation of the bull market
with stocks continuing to rise
and interest rates remaining relatively low
so in that scenario
staying invested in the market would be
winning strategy exactly
but of course there's also the opposite scenario
right
that the economy does indeed slip into a recession okay
if that happens
we could see a sharp decline in stock prices
yeah as investors flee to safety right
in that environment bonds
gold
and other safe haven assets would likely outperform
so being prepared for both scenarios is key
yeah don't put all your eggs in one basket
as the saying goes precisely
diversification is always important right
but it becomes even more crucial
during times of uncertainty
so we've covered a lot of ground in this deep dive yeah
we've analyzed the jobs report
dissected expert opinions
right explored potential market reactions
and even ventured into the world of crypto
it's been a journey it has
what's the ultimate takeaway
yeah for you
the listener who's been on this journey with us
I think the most important message is this okay
knowledge is power okay
the more you understand about the forces
shaping the economy in the markets
uh huh the better equipped you'll be
to navigate these turbulent times
don't be afraid to challenge conventional wisdom
right 2
ask tough questions and to form your own conclusions
exactly and remember
even in the face of uncertainty
yeah there's always opportunity
for those who are willing to do their homework
okay and stay ahead of the curve
so stay curious yeah
stay informed and most importantly
stay engaged absolutely
the future of the economy is being written right now
it is and you have a role to play in shaving it
that's a great point to end on
thanks for joining us on this deep dive
it's been a pleasure
exploring this complex and fascinating topic with you
for sure and to our listeners
thanks for diving deep with us
we'll see you next time see you see you later