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welcome to episode 2 of our podcast
brought to you by 14K feet up
and narrated by notebook LMAI
Today we'll explore Bitcoin surge to $73,000
approaching its all time high
despite market uncertainties
like pending election results and upcoming labor data
we'll discuss how Bitcoin's current movement mirrors
historical
cyclic patterns since the last market bottom
and what this could mean for investors
and the crypto market let's get started
disclaimer
this podcast is for informational purposes only
and does not constitute financial advice
please consult a professional adviser
hey everyone
ready for another deep dive into the world of Bitcoin
always ready for that
we're diving into some seriously cool stuff today
we've got this awesome report called a
Navigating Bitcoin to unpack
oh yeah
I saw that one yeah
and of course we've got your super sharp notes too
right always gotta have those always
oh and did you catch the breaking news
hmm bitcoin just hit $73,000
wow crazy right
practically an all time high
it's definitely getting close
I know it makes you wonder
what's really pushing these price swings
you know especially all those short term jumps and dips
yeah it's definitely more complex than just
you know following the having cycles these days exactly
so that's our mission today
we're gonna try to figure out what's
really behind those movements
so you guys listening
can make some smarter decisions out there
absolutely and knowing those cycles
I mean
they're historically linked to those having events
right oh yeah
the having right
where the reward for mining
you bitcoin gets cut in half
every 4 years exactly yep
usually see these like 4 phases accumulation markup
then distribution and then Mark down classic cycle
but like I was saying
it's not as straightforward as just
writing that wave anymore
I mean
both the report and my notes are pointing to that yeah
there's definitely more at play these days
like what the feds doing with this monetary policy
that's a big factor right
you mean stuff like quantitative tightening
yeah QT for those in the know
exactly it's like
imagine the Fed hitting the brakes on the economy right
they're pulling money out of circulation
making it harder to invest
yep exactly
so during those QT periods
bitcoins probably gonna have a tougher time right
makes sense investors get a little spook
they start running to those safe haven assets right
but then you've got the opposite quantitative easing
that's when things get interesting
Q E like flooring the gas pedal
yes exactly
Fed pumps money into the system
everybody feels a little more adventurous
and
they're more likely to take a chance on riskier assets
bitcoin included bitcoin loves a good QE party yeah
okay so we've got QT kind of like a wave crashing down
QE pushing things up
but then our report throws us a bit of a curveball
oh yeah it brings up this whole political angle
Trump trade versus Harris trade
oh yeah yeah yeah
kind of caught me off guard
not gonna lie
and it's not about endorsing any political figure here
right
it's about understanding the psychology of the market
right how perceptions around specific
policies or figures can influence how people invest
exactly yeah
alright so pretend I'm totally new to this
what was the Trump trade
and how did it play into Bitcoin story
okay so after Trump's election back in 2016
the markets were expecting well
tax cuts for what
and overall this like pro business environment
so everyone was feeling pretty optimistic
yep feeling good fueled a surge in stocks
and bitcoin kind of got swept up in that wave
you know like a rising tide lifts all boats
even the digital ones exactly
so indirectly
the Trump trade was a good time for bitcoin
but then we shifted over to the Harris trade right
that term kind of reflects
what people expect from policies
more associated with Vice President Harris right right
things like you know
social infrastructure and all that sustainability stuff
yeah so how does that impact bitcoin exactly
well those policies
they have a bigger
direct impact on things like long term
Treasury bonds ah
but then there's a ripple effect right
changes to those interest rates and global liquidity
that does affect bitcoin yeah
it's all connected
it's mind boggling how everything is tied together
it is it really is
speaking of connections I noticed something interesting
while I was prepping for today
and it's something
the Navigating Bitcoin report highlights too
okay I'm curious
it's bitcoin sensitivity to the US unemployment rate
ah you're onto something big there
that's a crucial pattern to understand
I thought so why do you think that is
why does rising unemployment make
bitcoin investors so nervous
well it's a signal
isn't it
a signal that the economy might be heading for trouble
and when people get nervous about the economy
they tend to shy away from volatile assets
bitcoin unfortunately
falls into that category
it's like Bitcoin has this like fear of pink slips
you know what I mean that's a great way to put it
and it's not just a theory right
like back in March of this year
Bitcoin took a dip when the unemployment rate jumped up
right
even though the SMP 500 was doing just fine at the time
exactly shows you just how sensitive it can be
but you know what's even crazier
in my notes I noticed
that a lot of Bitcoin's major price rejections happen
right around the time
those unemployment numbers get released
it's almost like clockwork
isn't it it's spooky
and speaking of things that make you go hmm
we can't ignore today's news right
bitcoin at $73,000 I know right
flirting with its all time high
exciting stuff but
there's also a ton of uncertainty hanging in the air
we still don't have the election results right
who knows what's gonna happen
that and then
there's this week's labor market data coming out
not to mention a super strong US dollar
yeah it's a real tug of war out there
is this like Bitcoin's moment
or the bears about to come out and play
to figure that out let's look at another trend
both you and the report picked up on
something called bitcoin dominance
hmm so
bitcoin dominance
it's basically how much of the whole crypto market
bitcoin controls ah okay
market share yeah
think of it like you know
who's top dog on the crypto hill right
right so
my research and this navigating Bitcoin report
both say Bitcoin's dominance is actually growing
that's exactly what we're seeing
like people are getting kind of
spooked by all those alt coins
yeah
and kind of retreating back to the safety of Bitcoin
you know good old reliable Bitcoin
Bitcoin the OG crypto
exactly when the market gets a little shaky
bitcoin starts to look pretty good
a safe haven but like within the crypto world
yeah exactly
a safe haven inside the bigger storm
love that okay
so navigating Bitcoin
it suggests this dominance could peak
yeah while Bitcoin is above
hold on its 20 week SMA ah yes
that's right the simple moving average MMA right
yes sorry
it's just a technical indicator
helps traders see what the market trends are okay
so like a tool to help spot those patterns
exactly got it
got it so
according to the report
as long as bitcoin stays above that line
its dominance is probably gonna keep going up
that's what it's looking like interesting
okay so Bitcoin's looking pretty strong right now
potentially
but then we've got this whole other thing happening
yeah the Fed and that recent rate cut
seeing some mixed reactions to that
oh yeah
for sure some say it's great news for Bitcoin
others are a little more hold on
let's see it's complicated right
and that's why there's so much debate going on
it's a head scratcher it is
remember how we talked about Kiwi yeah
like flooding the market with money
yeah yeah
well rate cuts are kind of part of that same playbook
they eject some liquidity
you know get things moving
and investors start feeling a little more adventurous
feeling risky right
more likely to jump into riskier assets
and that includes well bitcoin
yeah bitcoin
so that little price jump bitcoin got after the wake
yeah that was like a sugar rush
it was it was like Woohoo
party time but there's always a but
isn't there unfortunately yeah
there's pretty big but lay it on me
Ray cuts they often come right before a recession
oh no
and historically
recessions have not been good times for Bitcoin
so it's like a yay free money
and then uh oh
here comes the hangover yeah
exactly short term boost
but then the potential for a really bad downturn
the double edged sword of rate cuts
it really is and that brings us to this big question
can this rally keep going
or are we headed for a correction
yeah that's a million dollar question
isn't it feels like we're on this like tipping point
just waiting to see which way things are gonna go
it does it really does
but there's something else we can watch
you know something to maybe give us a clue
oh I'm all yours
it's something both you
and navigating Bitcoin have been talking about
hmm this week's unemployment data right
that's a big one it is yeah
like this giant question Mark hanging over everything
yeah and it could really tip the scales for Bitcoin
one way or the other right
like if the numbers come in lower than expected
oh it's lower unemployment
yeah and maybe
the Fed starts hinting that they might
ease up on those rate cuts
oh that could be a big signal right
like a green light for Bitcoin to take off
yeah it could be a real Bull Run for sure
so basically good news for the economy
yep less panicky Fed
good times for Bitcoin exactly
but you know
if those unemployment numbers start creeping up
oh yeah
the other side of the coin and the Fed gets all jittery
that could mean things are gonna get a little rough
it's almost like strong economy equals happy bitcoin
yeah shaky economy
bitcoins gotta watch out right
like a canary in the coal mine for the whole market
almost yeah
it's a great way to put it
it's really making me think
like understanding all these bigger economic trends
that's key to investing in bitcoin right
it absolutely is it's not just about bitcoin itself
it's about the whole picture
and remember
we've got bitcoin flirting with all time highs
right now yeah
crazy
but there's still a lot of uncertainty floating around
oh yeah
for sure like those election results
that could throw a whole other ranch into the mix
so much to watch so much to think about
but okay let's bring it back to the everyday investor
you know someone like me
trying to figure out this bitcoin puzzle
what's the takeaway here I'd say cautious optimism
Bitcoin's proven to be incredibly resilient
yeah it's a tough cookie
it is it really is
and there are definitely some reasons to be bullish
but you gotta stay level headed right
don't let the hype sweep you away
easy to get caught up in all the excitement
yeah exactly
yeah pay attention to those economic indicators
especially that unemployment data coming out this week
stay informed be ready to adapt
knowledge is power in this market
that's for sure knowledge is power
love that man
this has been an amazing deep dive
it has yeah
I feel like I finally have a decent grasp on
what's actually moving those bitcoin prices
especially those short term swings
that's what we aim for yeah
but the biggest take away from me
it's not just about bitcoin
it's about understanding the whole picture
the entire economic and political landscape
that's what really drives things
it's all connected right
and that's what makes Bitcoin so interesting
and so challenging so keep on learning
keep those questions coming
and hey
we always love to hear what you guys are thinking
what are you noticing in the market
what's your take on all this
absolutely share your insights
keep the conversation going
until next time happy diving everyone