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welcome to money is freedom

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a podcast

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exploring how finance and freedom connect in our lives

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created from thoughtful research

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and narrated by Notebook LM AI

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this series brings you clear

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meaningful insights into finance and beyond

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welcome to episode 2 of our podcast

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brought to you by 14K feet up

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and narrated by notebook LMAI

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Today we'll explore Bitcoin surge to $73,000

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approaching its all time high

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despite market uncertainties

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like pending election results and upcoming labor data

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we'll discuss how Bitcoin's current movement mirrors

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historical

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cyclic patterns since the last market bottom

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and what this could mean for investors

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and the crypto market let's get started

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disclaimer

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this podcast is for informational purposes only

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and does not constitute financial advice

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please consult a professional adviser

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hey everyone

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ready for another deep dive into the world of Bitcoin

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always ready for that

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we're diving into some seriously cool stuff today

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we've got this awesome report called a

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Navigating Bitcoin to unpack

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oh yeah

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I saw that one yeah

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and of course we've got your super sharp notes too

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right always gotta have those always

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oh and did you catch the breaking news

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hmm bitcoin just hit $73,000

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wow crazy right

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practically an all time high

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it's definitely getting close

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I know it makes you wonder

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what's really pushing these price swings

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you know especially all those short term jumps and dips

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yeah it's definitely more complex than just

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you know following the having cycles these days exactly

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so that's our mission today

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we're gonna try to figure out what's

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really behind those movements

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so you guys listening

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can make some smarter decisions out there

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absolutely and knowing those cycles

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I mean

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they're historically linked to those having events

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right oh yeah

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the having right

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where the reward for mining

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you bitcoin gets cut in half

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every 4 years exactly yep

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usually see these like 4 phases accumulation markup

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then distribution and then Mark down classic cycle

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but like I was saying

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it's not as straightforward as just

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writing that wave anymore

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I mean

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both the report and my notes are pointing to that yeah

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there's definitely more at play these days

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like what the feds doing with this monetary policy

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that's a big factor right

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you mean stuff like quantitative tightening

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yeah QT for those in the know

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exactly it's like

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imagine the Fed hitting the brakes on the economy right

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they're pulling money out of circulation

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making it harder to invest

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yep exactly

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so during those QT periods

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bitcoins probably gonna have a tougher time right

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makes sense investors get a little spook

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they start running to those safe haven assets right

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but then you've got the opposite quantitative easing

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that's when things get interesting

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Q E like flooring the gas pedal

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yes exactly

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Fed pumps money into the system

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everybody feels a little more adventurous

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and

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they're more likely to take a chance on riskier assets

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bitcoin included bitcoin loves a good QE party yeah

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okay so we've got QT kind of like a wave crashing down

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QE pushing things up

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but then our report throws us a bit of a curveball

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oh yeah it brings up this whole political angle

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Trump trade versus Harris trade

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oh yeah yeah yeah

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kind of caught me off guard

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not gonna lie

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and it's not about endorsing any political figure here

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right

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it's about understanding the psychology of the market

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right how perceptions around specific

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policies or figures can influence how people invest

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exactly yeah

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alright so pretend I'm totally new to this

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what was the Trump trade

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and how did it play into Bitcoin story

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okay so after Trump's election back in 2016

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the markets were expecting well

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tax cuts for what

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and overall this like pro business environment

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so everyone was feeling pretty optimistic

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yep feeling good fueled a surge in stocks

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and bitcoin kind of got swept up in that wave

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you know like a rising tide lifts all boats

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even the digital ones exactly

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so indirectly

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the Trump trade was a good time for bitcoin

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but then we shifted over to the Harris trade right

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that term kind of reflects

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what people expect from policies

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more associated with Vice President Harris right right

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things like you know

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social infrastructure and all that sustainability stuff

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yeah so how does that impact bitcoin exactly

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well those policies

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they have a bigger

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direct impact on things like long term

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Treasury bonds ah

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but then there's a ripple effect right

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changes to those interest rates and global liquidity

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that does affect bitcoin yeah

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it's all connected

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it's mind boggling how everything is tied together

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it is it really is

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speaking of connections I noticed something interesting

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while I was prepping for today

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and it's something

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the Navigating Bitcoin report highlights too

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okay I'm curious

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it's bitcoin sensitivity to the US unemployment rate

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ah you're onto something big there

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that's a crucial pattern to understand

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I thought so why do you think that is

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why does rising unemployment make

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bitcoin investors so nervous

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well it's a signal

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isn't it

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a signal that the economy might be heading for trouble

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and when people get nervous about the economy

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they tend to shy away from volatile assets

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bitcoin unfortunately

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falls into that category

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it's like Bitcoin has this like fear of pink slips

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you know what I mean that's a great way to put it

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and it's not just a theory right

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like back in March of this year

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Bitcoin took a dip when the unemployment rate jumped up

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right

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even though the SMP 500 was doing just fine at the time

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exactly shows you just how sensitive it can be

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but you know what's even crazier

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in my notes I noticed

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that a lot of Bitcoin's major price rejections happen

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right around the time

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those unemployment numbers get released

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it's almost like clockwork

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isn't it it's spooky

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and speaking of things that make you go hmm

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we can't ignore today's news right

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bitcoin at $73,000 I know right

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flirting with its all time high

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exciting stuff but

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there's also a ton of uncertainty hanging in the air

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we still don't have the election results right

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who knows what's gonna happen

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that and then

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there's this week's labor market data coming out

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not to mention a super strong US dollar

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yeah it's a real tug of war out there

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is this like Bitcoin's moment

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or the bears about to come out and play

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to figure that out let's look at another trend

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both you and the report picked up on

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something called bitcoin dominance

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hmm so

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bitcoin dominance

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it's basically how much of the whole crypto market

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bitcoin controls ah okay

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market share yeah

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think of it like you know

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who's top dog on the crypto hill right

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right so

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my research and this navigating Bitcoin report

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both say Bitcoin's dominance is actually growing

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that's exactly what we're seeing

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like people are getting kind of

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spooked by all those alt coins

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yeah

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and kind of retreating back to the safety of Bitcoin

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you know good old reliable Bitcoin

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Bitcoin the OG crypto

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exactly when the market gets a little shaky

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bitcoin starts to look pretty good

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a safe haven but like within the crypto world

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yeah exactly

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a safe haven inside the bigger storm

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love that okay

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so navigating Bitcoin

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it suggests this dominance could peak

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yeah while Bitcoin is above

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hold on its 20 week SMA ah yes

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that's right the simple moving average MMA right

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yes sorry

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it's just a technical indicator

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helps traders see what the market trends are okay

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so like a tool to help spot those patterns

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exactly got it

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got it so

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according to the report

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as long as bitcoin stays above that line

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its dominance is probably gonna keep going up

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that's what it's looking like interesting

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okay so Bitcoin's looking pretty strong right now

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potentially

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but then we've got this whole other thing happening

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yeah the Fed and that recent rate cut

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seeing some mixed reactions to that

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oh yeah

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for sure some say it's great news for Bitcoin

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others are a little more hold on

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let's see it's complicated right

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and that's why there's so much debate going on

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it's a head scratcher it is

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remember how we talked about Kiwi yeah

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like flooding the market with money

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yeah yeah

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well rate cuts are kind of part of that same playbook

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they eject some liquidity

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you know get things moving

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and investors start feeling a little more adventurous

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feeling risky right

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more likely to jump into riskier assets

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and that includes well bitcoin

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yeah bitcoin

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so that little price jump bitcoin got after the wake

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yeah that was like a sugar rush

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it was it was like Woohoo

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party time but there's always a but

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isn't there unfortunately yeah

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there's pretty big but lay it on me

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Ray cuts they often come right before a recession

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oh no

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and historically

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recessions have not been good times for Bitcoin

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so it's like a yay free money

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and then uh oh

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here comes the hangover yeah

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exactly short term boost

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but then the potential for a really bad downturn

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the double edged sword of rate cuts

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it really is and that brings us to this big question

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can this rally keep going

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or are we headed for a correction

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yeah that's a million dollar question

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isn't it feels like we're on this like tipping point

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just waiting to see which way things are gonna go

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it does it really does

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but there's something else we can watch

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you know something to maybe give us a clue

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oh I'm all yours

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it's something both you

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and navigating Bitcoin have been talking about

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hmm this week's unemployment data right

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that's a big one it is yeah

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like this giant question Mark hanging over everything

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yeah and it could really tip the scales for Bitcoin

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one way or the other right

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like if the numbers come in lower than expected

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oh it's lower unemployment

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yeah and maybe

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the Fed starts hinting that they might

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ease up on those rate cuts

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oh that could be a big signal right

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00:09:19,833 --> 00:09:21,966
like a green light for Bitcoin to take off

282
00:09:21,966 --> 00:09:23,966
yeah it could be a real Bull Run for sure

283
00:09:23,966 --> 00:09:26,566
so basically good news for the economy

284
00:09:26,700 --> 00:09:28,366
yep less panicky Fed

285
00:09:28,566 --> 00:09:30,466
good times for Bitcoin exactly

286
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but you know

287
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if those unemployment numbers start creeping up

288
00:09:34,266 --> 00:09:34,766
oh yeah

289
00:09:34,766 --> 00:09:37,066
the other side of the coin and the Fed gets all jittery

290
00:09:37,633 --> 00:09:39,333
that could mean things are gonna get a little rough

291
00:09:39,333 --> 00:09:43,266
it's almost like strong economy equals happy bitcoin

292
00:09:43,266 --> 00:09:45,200
yeah shaky economy

293
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bitcoins gotta watch out right

294
00:09:47,833 --> 00:09:50,300
like a canary in the coal mine for the whole market

295
00:09:50,300 --> 00:09:51,233
almost yeah

296
00:09:51,233 --> 00:09:52,566
it's a great way to put it

297
00:09:52,566 --> 00:09:53,766
it's really making me think

298
00:09:53,766 --> 00:09:56,766
like understanding all these bigger economic trends

299
00:09:56,766 --> 00:09:59,066
that's key to investing in bitcoin right

300
00:09:59,066 --> 00:10:01,766
it absolutely is it's not just about bitcoin itself

301
00:10:01,766 --> 00:10:03,366
it's about the whole picture

302
00:10:03,566 --> 00:10:04,133
and remember

303
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we've got bitcoin flirting with all time highs

304
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right now yeah

305
00:10:07,300 --> 00:10:08,066
crazy

306
00:10:08,066 --> 00:10:10,633
but there's still a lot of uncertainty floating around

307
00:10:10,633 --> 00:10:11,266
oh yeah

308
00:10:11,266 --> 00:10:12,933
for sure like those election results

309
00:10:12,933 --> 00:10:15,400
that could throw a whole other ranch into the mix

310
00:10:15,500 --> 00:10:17,733
so much to watch so much to think about

311
00:10:17,733 --> 00:10:19,966
but okay let's bring it back to the everyday investor

312
00:10:19,966 --> 00:10:21,500
you know someone like me

313
00:10:21,500 --> 00:10:23,500
trying to figure out this bitcoin puzzle

314
00:10:23,500 --> 00:10:27,233
what's the takeaway here I'd say cautious optimism

315
00:10:27,466 --> 00:10:29,700
Bitcoin's proven to be incredibly resilient

316
00:10:29,700 --> 00:10:30,966
yeah it's a tough cookie

317
00:10:30,966 --> 00:10:32,566
it is it really is

318
00:10:32,933 --> 00:10:34,966
and there are definitely some reasons to be bullish

319
00:10:34,966 --> 00:10:36,500
but you gotta stay level headed right

320
00:10:36,500 --> 00:10:38,166
don't let the hype sweep you away

321
00:10:38,166 --> 00:10:39,733
easy to get caught up in all the excitement

322
00:10:39,733 --> 00:10:40,533
yeah exactly

323
00:10:40,533 --> 00:10:43,000
yeah pay attention to those economic indicators

324
00:10:43,166 --> 00:10:45,600
especially that unemployment data coming out this week

325
00:10:45,966 --> 00:10:48,666
stay informed be ready to adapt

326
00:10:48,666 --> 00:10:50,166
knowledge is power in this market

327
00:10:50,166 --> 00:10:51,966
that's for sure knowledge is power

328
00:10:51,966 --> 00:10:52,966
love that man

329
00:10:52,966 --> 00:10:55,233
this has been an amazing deep dive

330
00:10:55,233 --> 00:10:55,933
it has yeah

331
00:10:55,933 --> 00:10:58,633
I feel like I finally have a decent grasp on

332
00:10:58,700 --> 00:11:01,033
what's actually moving those bitcoin prices

333
00:11:01,033 --> 00:11:02,433
especially those short term swings

334
00:11:02,433 --> 00:11:04,033
that's what we aim for yeah

335
00:11:04,366 --> 00:11:05,633
but the biggest take away from me

336
00:11:05,633 --> 00:11:07,066
it's not just about bitcoin

337
00:11:07,066 --> 00:11:10,233
it's about understanding the whole picture

338
00:11:10,233 --> 00:11:13,066
the entire economic and political landscape

339
00:11:13,066 --> 00:11:15,300
that's what really drives things

340
00:11:15,300 --> 00:11:16,800
it's all connected right

341
00:11:16,833 --> 00:11:18,966
and that's what makes Bitcoin so interesting

342
00:11:18,966 --> 00:11:20,966
and so challenging so keep on learning

343
00:11:20,966 --> 00:11:22,233
keep those questions coming

344
00:11:22,233 --> 00:11:22,866
and hey

345
00:11:22,866 --> 00:11:24,566
we always love to hear what you guys are thinking

346
00:11:24,566 --> 00:11:25,900
what are you noticing in the market

347
00:11:25,900 --> 00:11:27,066
what's your take on all this

348
00:11:27,066 --> 00:11:29,266
absolutely share your insights

349
00:11:29,266 --> 00:11:31,066
keep the conversation going

350
00:11:31,633 --> 00:11:34,266
until next time happy diving everyone