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you know with all this bitcoin buzz lately

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especially since

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you know

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we shifted from quantitative tightening to easing right

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it's easy to get lost in the noise definitely

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so today we're gonna dive deep into your notes okay

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and the research paper you shared

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navigating Bitcoin's short term price movements

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that's good and our mission today is to

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really equip you with the knowledge

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to cut through all the hype

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cut through the hot

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and understand what's really driving

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Bitcoin's price action right

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both now and in the future

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yeah we're even gonna tackle some of those

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intriguing questions from your notes

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all right like how political events impact Bitcoin

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and why Bitcoin dominance should be on your radar

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I like it I think

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one of the most fascinating things about Bitcoin

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is that you know

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beneath the surface volatility

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there are actually recurring patterns yeah

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especially when you zoom out

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and look at the historical data

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for sure it's like clockwork

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yeah it's pretty amazing

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everyone talks about these four year cycles

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yeah

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but can we really predict what Bitcoin is going to do

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based on some calendar cycle

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well not exactly predicting the future okay

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but understanding the phases within these cycles right

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can definitely give you an edge

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they give it like the seasons of the year okay

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you know winter's coming

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even if you don't know the exact date

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yeah the first snowflake will fall okay

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I like that analogy yeah

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so walk me through these bitcoin seasons yeah

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what are we looking at here

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so after a correction okay

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we enter the accumulation phase

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accumulation phase yeah

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things are quiet prices are relatively low

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okay and savvy investors start accumulating Bitcoin

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okay this is like the planting season yeah

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you know where the seas for the next bull runner zone

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this is the time to be greedy when others are fearful

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right exactly okay

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then comes the markup face

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markup face right

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where excitement bills

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demand increases and prices climb

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yeah FOMO kicks in

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everyone's talking about it yeah

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fear of missing out yep FOMO

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that's right things can get a bit wild

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definitely a little crazy

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so this is our Bitcoin spring

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that's a good way to put it

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full of growth and potential

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lots of potential but what happens when summer ends

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right and the leaves start to fall

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that's when we hit the distribution phase

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distribution phase yeah

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okay market peaks early

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investors start taking profits okay

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things plateau all right

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this is like autumn a time of harvest and consolidation

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so we enjoy the fruits of our labor yeah

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but also prepare for the coming winter

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exactly and winter arrives with the markdown phase

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yes this is the correction

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prices decline some people panic sell

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it happens and the cycle begins anew

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the cycle continues okay

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so understanding where we are in this four year cycle

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can give us a roadmap yeah

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even if we can't pinpoint the exact turns but you know

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there's another force at play here

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that can feel a bit like a financial roller coaster

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yeah quantitative tightening and easing

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hmm to be honest

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these terms make my head spin a little

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I hear you it's like okay

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what does this mean for Bitcoin

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yeah it's easy to get lost in the jargon right

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but grasping

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how these monetary policies impact bitcoin is crucial

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okay think of quantitative tightening or QT

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like hitting the brakes on the economy

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hitting the brakes the Fed reduces liquidity

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less money flown around less money flown around

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okay

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and investors tend to move away from riskier assets

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like Bitcoin towards safehavens

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like bonds or even cash

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so during QT bitcoin takes a hit

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yeah while these so called safehavens get a boost

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it's like a rotation interesting

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and what's interesting is that altcoins okay

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you know

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those other cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin right

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right they usually suffer even more during QT

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oh really

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yeah their value drops faster compared to Bitcoin

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wow and we say they bleed against bitcoin

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bleed against bitcoin yeah

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this is a key reason

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why many investors favor a bitcoin heavy portfolio

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during times of tightening

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so QT is like a crypto winter

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yeah you could say that

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and Bitcoin is the warmest coat you can find

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I like that analogy

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but what about quantitative easing or Q E right

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is that the thought exactly

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Q E is like stepping on the gas okay

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the Fed pumps money into the economy

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increasing liquidity more money flowing

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more money flowing okay

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and encouraging investment in riskier assets

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including bitcoin including bitcoin

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so Q E is party time let's not get ahead of ourselves

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okay the market always throws curveballs right

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but we did just see the Fed cut rates okay

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and we're already seeing large cap

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socks and gold rising uh huh

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this could indicate a shift towards a risk on

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environment yeah

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which typically benefits Bitcoin

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okay I'm starting to see the pattern here

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yeah it's four year cycles

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QT and Q E acting like this economic weather

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but how do things like elections

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and global events fit into all of this

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that's where it gets really interesting okay

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your notes mention the Trump trade and the Harris trade

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right

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these are perfect examples of how political events

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even those seemingly unrelated to crypto

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can send ripples through the Bitcoin market

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I'm all yours break it down

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okay let's start with the Trump trade okay

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what was that all about and how did it impact bitcoin

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so after Trump's election in 2016

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okay we saw a market surge

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fueled by expectations of tax cuts and d regulations

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okay so the overall positive sentiment in the market

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driven by those policies spilled over into crypto

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even though crypto wasn't directly involved

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exactly investors were feeling more confident

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okay and taking on more risk right

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which benefited assets like Bitcoin

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interesting plus

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the Trump trade also LED to

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an expansion of global liquidity

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OK as policies aimed at economic growth

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encouraged investment right

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this surplus liquidity

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further fueled the rise of Bitcoin

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so a rising tide lifts all boats

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even the Bitcoin boat I like that

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but it's not always smooth sailing right right

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what about this Harris trade

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how does that factor in so

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the Harris trade refers to

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how investors are positioning themselves okay

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in anticipation of policies

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associated with Vice President

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Kamala Harris particularly

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her focus on social infrastructure

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and sustainable initiatives okay

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these policies while important

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could potentially lead to higher

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long term interest rates and higher interest rates mean

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less investment in riskier assets

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like bitcoin yeah

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if investors can get decent returns

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from safer investments like bonds right

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they might be less inclined to put their money into a

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volatile market

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like crypto it's a domino effect

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yeah politics influences interest rates

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which in turn influence bitcoin

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exactly it's all connected

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it's all connected yeah

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speaking of interconnectedness

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the research you sent

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points to a surprising connection between Bitcoin

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and the US labor market right

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specifically the unemployment rate

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that's right it might seem counterintuitive

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yeah but the research shows a clear correlation

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yeah every time bitcoin has failed to break through

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a certain price trend line

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hmm it's coincided with a rising unemployment rate

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hold on so if more people are out of work

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bitcoin goes down that's the trend we've seen

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why would that be it all comes back to risk okay

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when the economy weakens and unemployment rises

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investors get nervous and pull back from risky assets

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like bitcoin they get scared

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yeah

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and move towards those safe havens we discussed earlier

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towards bonds towards bonds

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gold things like that

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got it this explains why we've seen

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bitcoins struggle to break through

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certain price levels like

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uh huh even while the SMP 500 keeps climbing

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so even though the stock market might seem strong yeah

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Bitcoin is picking up on these

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subtle signals of potential economic trouble

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yeah it's further out on the risk curve

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through the unemployment rate

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that's right interesting

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so the unemployment rate is kind of lay arc

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canary in the coal mine

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yeah you could say that

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it's a key indicator to watch

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very important to watch speaking of big picture trends

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there's one more piece I'm curious about okay

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bitcoin dominance yeah

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what exactly is that and why should I care

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so bitcoin dominance measures

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how much of the total cryptocurrency

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market is made up of bitcoin okay

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it's a way to gauge bitcoin strength

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relative to all the other cryptocurrencies out there

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so a high bitcoin dominance means

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bitcoin is king of the hill

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pretty much okay

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but how does that translate into actionable insights

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for me as an investor historically

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maintaining a portfolio that's heavier on bitcoin

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has been a successful strategy okay

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particularly during those QT periods we talked about

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right where alt coins tend to underperform exactly

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they bleed against bitcoin yeah

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so when the going gets tough

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sticking with Bitcoin is the way to go

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makes sense

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and here's where it gets even more interesting okay

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the research suggests that

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Bitcoin dominance tends to peak

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while Bitcoin is trading above its 20 week SMA okay

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which is a

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technical indicator called the Simple Moving Average

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it's like a moving average of the price over

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the past 20 weeks okay

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helping us see the bigger trend

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so

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we're not just looking at Bitcoin dominance on its own

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right

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we're also looking at how it relates to this 20 week

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SMA exactly

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it's like putting together the pieces of a puzzle

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got it and right now

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Bitcoin is trading above its 20 week SMA

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okay

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and its dominance is nearing a predictive target of 60%

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wow

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this could be a significant signal for investors

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okay I'm definitely adding Bitcoin dominance

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and 20 week SMA to my watchlist

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good idea so

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all signs point to

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Bitcoin being the king of the crypto castle

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yeah especially in these uncertain times

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it's been a good performer

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but how do we take all this knowledge

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and translate it into an action plan right

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how do we navigate this current cycle

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and make smart investment decisions

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that's the million dollar question right

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and thankfully

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your research offers some really practical guidance

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00:10:01,500 --> 00:10:02,400
right lay it on me

282
00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:07,300
okay so it emphasizes avoiding emotional decisions

283
00:10:07,300 --> 00:10:09,766
okay especially based on FOMO

284
00:10:09,766 --> 00:10:12,666
you know it's easy to get swept up in the hype yeah

285
00:10:12,666 --> 00:10:15,000
but a level headed approach is key

286
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,366
so no panic buying when

287
00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,966
everyone's shouting from the rooftops about Bitcoin

288
00:10:19,966 --> 00:10:21,900
going to the moon exactly

289
00:10:21,900 --> 00:10:24,166
instead consider dollar cost averaging

290
00:10:24,166 --> 00:10:26,066
dollar cost averaging what is that

291
00:10:26,066 --> 00:10:29,133
that means investing a set amount at regular intervals

292
00:10:29,133 --> 00:10:31,100
regardless of the price okay

293
00:10:31,100 --> 00:10:33,633
this helps you write out the volatility

294
00:10:33,900 --> 00:10:36,133
and takes the emotion out of the equation

295
00:10:36,133 --> 00:10:38,633
so dollar cost averaging got it yep

296
00:10:38,666 --> 00:10:41,700
what else think of yourself as an economic detective

297
00:10:41,700 --> 00:10:43,333
an economic detective

298
00:10:43,333 --> 00:10:47,633
keep an eye on key indicators like unemployment rates

299
00:10:47,700 --> 00:10:50,300
inflation and treasure yields okay

300
00:10:50,300 --> 00:10:51,000
they provide

301
00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,966
valuable clues about the overall health of the economy

302
00:10:53,966 --> 00:10:57,033
right which in turn influences the crypto market

303
00:10:57,466 --> 00:11:01,366
so stay informed and be ready to adapt our strategy

304
00:11:01,366 --> 00:11:02,600
precisely okay

305
00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:04,666
remember those political events we discussed

306
00:11:04,666 --> 00:11:08,066
yes stay up to date on policy changes okay

307
00:11:08,066 --> 00:11:11,000
especially those that could impact global liquidity

308
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:14,166
like those potentially linked to the Harris trade right

309
00:11:14,166 --> 00:11:15,333
keep an eye on the news

310
00:11:15,333 --> 00:11:17,766
and understand the potential domino effects

311
00:11:17,766 --> 00:11:20,166
that's it so we're dollar cost averaging

312
00:11:20,166 --> 00:11:21,366
we're staying informed

313
00:11:21,366 --> 00:11:23,300
we're keeping those political and economic

314
00:11:23,300 --> 00:11:24,900
forces in mind yep

315
00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:27,500
what about the structure of our portfolio

316
00:11:27,966 --> 00:11:30,400
diversification is crucial

317
00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,066
diversification while Bitcoin plays a central role okay

318
00:11:34,066 --> 00:11:35,633
especially during times like QT

319
00:11:36,666 --> 00:11:37,166
spreading

320
00:11:37,166 --> 00:11:40,100
your investments across different asset classes is key

321
00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:40,666
so

322
00:11:40,666 --> 00:11:44,266
a diversified portfolio with a healthy dose of bitcoin

323
00:11:44,266 --> 00:11:47,166
yeah what other assets should we be considering

324
00:11:47,166 --> 00:11:48,800
large cap stocks yeah

325
00:11:49,166 --> 00:11:52,400
can provides stability during uncertain times okay

326
00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:52,933
they're like

327
00:11:52,933 --> 00:11:55,666
the reliable work horses of the investment world

328
00:11:56,066 --> 00:11:58,566
less volatile than smaller companies right

329
00:11:58,566 --> 00:12:00,100
and then there's gold gold

330
00:12:00,100 --> 00:12:02,500
the classic classic safe haven asset right

331
00:12:02,500 --> 00:12:05,366
it tends to holds value during periods of inflation

332
00:12:05,366 --> 00:12:06,633
or market turmoil

333
00:12:06,933 --> 00:12:09,833
think of it as your financial anchor in stormy seas

334
00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,566
stability this is safe haven right

335
00:12:12,566 --> 00:12:14,733
those sound like solid additions yeah

336
00:12:14,733 --> 00:12:17,166
what about something a bit more unconventional

337
00:12:17,166 --> 00:12:19,533
I know a lot of people are curious about alt coins

338
00:12:19,533 --> 00:12:20,966
alt coins yeah

339
00:12:20,966 --> 00:12:22,700
the Wild West of crypto right

340
00:12:22,700 --> 00:12:24,800
while Bitcoin is the undisputed king

341
00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,500
uh huh the old coin landscape is vast

342
00:12:27,500 --> 00:12:28,966
and full of possibilities

343
00:12:28,966 --> 00:12:31,333
uh huh it's like exploring a new frontier

344
00:12:31,333 --> 00:12:34,266
it is but with high risk comes high reward

345
00:12:34,266 --> 00:12:35,900
so how do we even begin

346
00:12:35,900 --> 00:12:38,400
to navigate this alt coin frontier

347
00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:39,900
yeah it can feel overwhelming

348
00:12:39,900 --> 00:12:41,366
it does absolutely

349
00:12:41,366 --> 00:12:43,000
it seems like there's a new project popping up

350
00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:44,466
every day there is

351
00:12:44,466 --> 00:12:46,300
it's hard to keep up yeah

352
00:12:46,300 --> 00:12:47,800
but a good place to start

353
00:12:47,933 --> 00:12:50,166
is by focusing on specific sectors

354
00:12:50,166 --> 00:12:52,566
okay within the crypto space right

355
00:12:52,566 --> 00:12:55,466
you mention mean coins AI coins

356
00:12:55,866 --> 00:12:57,033
gaming coins

357
00:12:57,866 --> 00:12:59,866
RWA coins and layer 1 coins in your notes

358
00:12:59,866 --> 00:13:02,733
I did each of these sectors has its own dynamics

359
00:13:02,733 --> 00:13:04,000
and potential okay

360
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:05,600
so let's dive in right

361
00:13:05,666 --> 00:13:07,666
meme coins meme coins

362
00:13:07,666 --> 00:13:09,300
those are the ones with the funny dog logos right

363
00:13:09,300 --> 00:13:09,933
coffin yeah

364
00:13:09,933 --> 00:13:13,166
are they a serious investment or just a passing fad

365
00:13:13,266 --> 00:13:15,766
meme coins are an interesting phenomenon

366
00:13:15,766 --> 00:13:18,600
they are they often start as internet jokes or trends

367
00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,733
right but some have gained significant value yeah

368
00:13:21,733 --> 00:13:24,066
I've seen that driven by passionate communities

369
00:13:24,066 --> 00:13:25,933
so investing in internet culture

370
00:13:25,933 --> 00:13:28,900
is there any real substance behind those memes

371
00:13:29,300 --> 00:13:30,933
that's the crucial question right

372
00:13:30,933 --> 00:13:35,700
while some mean coins are purely speculative okay

373
00:13:35,700 --> 00:13:38,866
others are actually building platforms and utilities

374
00:13:39,066 --> 00:13:41,500
trying to leverage the power of their communities

375
00:13:41,533 --> 00:13:43,233
to create something valuable

376
00:13:43,366 --> 00:13:45,466
so even in the meme coin world

377
00:13:45,466 --> 00:13:47,766
it's about separating hype from substance

378
00:13:47,900 --> 00:13:49,833
exactly what about AI coins

379
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:51,866
AI coins yeah

380
00:13:51,866 --> 00:13:53,200
those sound a bit more serious

381
00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:54,733
they are linked to projects

382
00:13:54,733 --> 00:13:56,466
using artificial intelligence

383
00:13:56,466 --> 00:14:00,233
okay to build innovative solutions in various fields

384
00:14:00,500 --> 00:14:03,000
ranging from finance to healthcare okay

385
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,000
it's a rapidly evolving space with lots of potential

386
00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:07,133
investing in the future of tech

387
00:14:07,133 --> 00:14:09,266
that sounds promising it is promising

388
00:14:09,266 --> 00:14:10,966
but how can we tell which AI

389
00:14:10,966 --> 00:14:12,800
projects have real potential right

390
00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,866
and which are just writing the AI hype wave

391
00:14:15,866 --> 00:14:19,100
look for strong teams innovative use cases

392
00:14:19,100 --> 00:14:22,166
okay and a clear roadmap for development

393
00:14:22,366 --> 00:14:24,700
and as always thorough research is key

394
00:14:24,766 --> 00:14:26,733
research is key got it

395
00:14:26,733 --> 00:14:27,766
don't let the buzzwords

396
00:14:27,766 --> 00:14:29,500
distract you from the fundamentals

397
00:14:29,500 --> 00:14:31,933
what about gaming coins gaming coins

398
00:14:31,933 --> 00:14:33,800
they seem to be gaining a lot of traction yeah

399
00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:36,300
they're part of the exciting world of blockchain gaming

400
00:14:36,300 --> 00:14:37,566
blockchain gaming

401
00:14:37,566 --> 00:14:40,766
where players can own and trade in game assets

402
00:14:40,766 --> 00:14:41,600
oh wow

403
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,100
potentially earning real world value

404
00:14:44,100 --> 00:14:45,966
so it's like combining the fun of

405
00:14:45,966 --> 00:14:48,866
gaming with the potential of investing

406
00:14:48,866 --> 00:14:49,866
yeah exactly

407
00:14:49,866 --> 00:14:52,500
are these gaming economies sustainable in the long run

408
00:14:52,500 --> 00:14:54,400
though that's the big question right

409
00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,166
some gaming projects have seen tremendous growth

410
00:14:57,166 --> 00:15:00,933
yeah but you need to carefully evaluate the gameplay

411
00:15:00,933 --> 00:15:02,666
uh huh the toconomics

412
00:15:02,900 --> 00:15:06,666
okay and the long term vision of the project right

413
00:15:06,966 --> 00:15:08,933
look for games that are fun to play

414
00:15:08,933 --> 00:15:10,866
it has to be fun it does right

415
00:15:10,866 --> 00:15:14,066
and offer real ownership and utility for their players

416
00:15:14,066 --> 00:15:15,400
it needs to be more than just hype

417
00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,600
it needs to be a game people actually wanna play

418
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:18,766
exactly okay

419
00:15:18,766 --> 00:15:20,833
what about those RWA coins

420
00:15:21,066 --> 00:15:23,400
RWA coins I'm not a familiar with those

421
00:15:23,533 --> 00:15:25,866
RWA stands for real world asset

422
00:15:25,866 --> 00:15:27,200
real world asset

423
00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:30,133
these are tokens backed by tangible assets

424
00:15:30,133 --> 00:15:32,366
like real estate or commodities okay

425
00:15:32,366 --> 00:15:33,766
it's about bringing traditional

426
00:15:33,766 --> 00:15:35,366
assets into the cryptoworld

427
00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:38,133
so why tokenize these real world assets right

428
00:15:38,133 --> 00:15:39,333
what's the advantage

429
00:15:39,333 --> 00:15:42,666
tokenization can make these assets more accessible

430
00:15:42,666 --> 00:15:44,866
liquid in transparent okay

431
00:15:44,866 --> 00:15:46,866
it can streamline transactions

432
00:15:47,066 --> 00:15:49,733
and open up new investment avenues

433
00:15:49,733 --> 00:15:50,200
for people

434
00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,666
who might not have had access to these markets before

435
00:15:52,933 --> 00:15:53,500
interesting so

436
00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:55,533
it's about making traditionally ill

437
00:15:55,533 --> 00:15:58,666
liquid assets more liquid and accessible

438
00:15:58,966 --> 00:16:00,166
that's the idea okay

439
00:16:00,166 --> 00:16:02,700
last but not least let's talk about those layer 1 coins

440
00:16:02,700 --> 00:16:04,833
layer 1 coins what are those all about

441
00:16:04,900 --> 00:16:06,700
those are the native cryptocurrencies

442
00:16:06,700 --> 00:16:09,100
okay of blockchain platforms

443
00:16:09,100 --> 00:16:11,666
that act as foundations for other applications

444
00:16:11,666 --> 00:16:13,200
and projects they're like

445
00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:15,766
the bedrock upon which the crypto world is built

446
00:16:15,766 --> 00:16:15,966
so

447
00:16:15,966 --> 00:16:18,933
investing in the infrastructure of the crypto universe

448
00:16:18,933 --> 00:16:20,200
yeah in a way

449
00:16:20,300 --> 00:16:22,766
but with so many layer 1 platforms out there

450
00:16:22,766 --> 00:16:24,566
how do we choose the right ones

451
00:16:24,666 --> 00:16:26,133
scalability security

452
00:16:26,133 --> 00:16:28,733
and developer activity are cue factors to consider

453
00:16:28,733 --> 00:16:31,366
okay look for platforms with a solid track record

454
00:16:31,366 --> 00:16:31,766
uh huh

455
00:16:31,766 --> 00:16:34,400
a vibrant community of developers building on them

456
00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,000
right and a clear vision for the future

457
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,100
this is a lot to take in it seems like

458
00:16:39,100 --> 00:16:42,100
the Alcoin universe is vast and constantly evolving

459
00:16:42,100 --> 00:16:42,766
it is

460
00:16:42,766 --> 00:16:46,033
any final words of wisdom for navigating this space

461
00:16:46,300 --> 00:16:49,333
approach it with a healthy mix of curiosity and caution

462
00:16:49,333 --> 00:16:51,066
okay do your research

463
00:16:51,066 --> 00:16:52,400
diversify your investments

464
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,266
and don't be afraid to ask questions

465
00:16:54,266 --> 00:16:55,500
good advice and remember

466
00:16:55,500 --> 00:16:57,866
the crypto space is constantly evolving

467
00:16:58,200 --> 00:16:59,900
so continuous learning is key

468
00:17:00,266 --> 00:17:01,133
it seems like

469
00:17:01,133 --> 00:17:03,333
navigating the crypto market successfully

470
00:17:03,333 --> 00:17:03,933
is about

471
00:17:03,933 --> 00:17:06,866
much more than just understanding the price of Bitcoin

472
00:17:06,900 --> 00:17:08,900
yeah it's about understanding the bigger picture

473
00:17:08,900 --> 00:17:11,800
the economic forces the political landscape

474
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:13,700
and even the psychology of the market

475
00:17:13,966 --> 00:17:14,866
you hit the nail on the head

476
00:17:14,866 --> 00:17:17,866
yeah it's about seeing the interconnectedness of it all

477
00:17:17,866 --> 00:17:19,266
it is and most importantly

478
00:17:19,266 --> 00:17:22,100
it's about managing risk and making informed

479
00:17:22,100 --> 00:17:24,300
decisions that align with your goals

480
00:17:24,300 --> 00:17:26,966
and risk tolerance speaking of risk management

481
00:17:26,966 --> 00:17:29,533
I remember that powerful line from your research

482
00:17:29,533 --> 00:17:32,100
protect your psyche so that you don't lose confidence

483
00:17:32,100 --> 00:17:33,900
when the real Bull Run starts

484
00:17:33,900 --> 00:17:36,300
yeah it's a reminder that this is a Marathon

485
00:17:36,300 --> 00:17:38,133
not a sprint for sure

486
00:17:38,133 --> 00:17:40,966
and staying mentally strong is just as important

487
00:17:40,966 --> 00:17:42,566
as having a solid strategy

488
00:17:42,566 --> 00:17:45,066
absolutely this market can be a roller coaster ride

489
00:17:45,066 --> 00:17:47,566
it can be protect your capital hmm

490
00:17:47,566 --> 00:17:50,000
but also protect your mindset right

491
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,700
don't let fear in greed dictate your actions

492
00:17:53,733 --> 00:17:57,566
great advice so we've talked about bitcoin cycles

493
00:17:57,666 --> 00:17:59,033
monetary policy

494
00:17:59,066 --> 00:18:01,266
political events and the altcoin landscape

495
00:18:01,266 --> 00:18:02,366
click forward a lot we have

496
00:18:02,366 --> 00:18:04,166
we've Learned about dollar cost averaging

497
00:18:04,166 --> 00:18:07,066
diversification and the importance of staying informed

498
00:18:07,066 --> 00:18:10,333
right but what does all of this mean for the future

499
00:18:10,333 --> 00:18:13,200
okay what are some potential scenarios for Bitcoin

500
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,466
and how can we position ourselves for success

501
00:18:15,466 --> 00:18:17,800
regardless of what unfolds right

502
00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,566
so we've laid a really solid foundation here yeah

503
00:18:20,566 --> 00:18:21,933
but let's look ahead okay

504
00:18:21,933 --> 00:18:24,400
what does the future hold for Bitcoin

505
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,033
yeah that's the big question

506
00:18:26,266 --> 00:18:28,866
how can we position ourselves for success right

507
00:18:28,866 --> 00:18:31,600
no matter what surprises the market throws our way

508
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:32,166
well well

509
00:18:32,166 --> 00:18:34,866
we can't predict the future with certainty right

510
00:18:34,866 --> 00:18:36,600
we can use what we've Learned

511
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,033
to develop a robust strategy okay

512
00:18:39,566 --> 00:18:42,566
your research outlines two primary scenarios okay

513
00:18:42,566 --> 00:18:44,533
the bullish one and a bearish one okay

514
00:18:44,533 --> 00:18:45,866
and as we've discussed

515
00:18:45,900 --> 00:18:48,766
the unemployment rate is a major factor right

516
00:18:48,766 --> 00:18:49,900
the canary in the coal mine

517
00:18:49,900 --> 00:18:51,000
exactly okay

518
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,366
let's start with the optimistic outlook okay

519
00:18:53,366 --> 00:18:55,766
what is that bullish scenario look like

520
00:18:56,100 --> 00:18:59,500
in this scenario the unemployment rate stabilizes

521
00:18:59,500 --> 00:19:01,900
or even starts to decline okay

522
00:19:02,300 --> 00:19:04,633
the Fed eases off on those rate cuts

523
00:19:04,866 --> 00:19:06,966
and we steer clear of a recession

524
00:19:07,733 --> 00:19:11,566
this points to a more positive economic outlook right

525
00:19:11,566 --> 00:19:12,600
which as we know

526
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,466
tends to favor risk assets like Bitcoin

527
00:19:15,700 --> 00:19:17,366
so we're talking smooth sailing

528
00:19:17,366 --> 00:19:20,266
a healthy economy and Bitcoin potentially taking off

529
00:19:20,266 --> 00:19:22,666
remember the market loves to keep us on our toes right

530
00:19:22,666 --> 00:19:25,000
there are always unforeseen factors that can pop up

531
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,033
of course but in this bullshit area

532
00:19:28,766 --> 00:19:30,000
we could see Bitcoin

533
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:31,600
finally breaking through that lower

534
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:33,133
high pattern okay

535
00:19:33,133 --> 00:19:36,000
and embarking on a significant upward movement

536
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,866
a breakout to the upside that's what we like to hear

537
00:19:38,866 --> 00:19:41,566
that's the bold case but let's face the flip side okay

538
00:19:41,566 --> 00:19:43,800
what happens in that bearish scenario

539
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,966
if the unemployment rate continues to climb okay

540
00:19:46,966 --> 00:19:48,566
exceeding the feds target

541
00:19:48,900 --> 00:19:52,066
then a recession in 2025 becomes more likely

542
00:19:52,066 --> 00:19:54,666
and a recession usually triggers a flight to safety

543
00:19:54,666 --> 00:19:56,500
okay investors get spooked

544
00:19:56,966 --> 00:20:00,000
pull back from riskier assets like bitcoin

545
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,766
yeah and seek refuge in those safer havens

546
00:20:02,766 --> 00:20:05,000
we discussed earlier bonds and gold

547
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:06,066
exactly okay

548
00:20:06,066 --> 00:20:06,566
this could have

549
00:20:06,566 --> 00:20:10,033
result in another significant dip in the crypto market

550
00:20:10,500 --> 00:20:14,233
so the unemployment rate is our canary in the coal mine

551
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,566
it's a good analogy low unemployment means party time

552
00:20:17,566 --> 00:20:20,833
high unemployment means batting down the hatches

553
00:20:21,100 --> 00:20:23,266
it's a bit more nuanced than that right

554
00:20:23,266 --> 00:20:25,100
but you've got the right idea okay

555
00:20:25,100 --> 00:20:28,000
that unemployment rate gives us crucial insights

556
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,166
into the overall health of the economy

557
00:20:30,166 --> 00:20:32,766
right and its impact on risk appetite makes sense

558
00:20:32,766 --> 00:20:35,000
it's a key indicator to monitor closely

559
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,033
okay two potential paths

560
00:20:37,500 --> 00:20:39,966
bullish breakout or bearish downturn

561
00:20:39,966 --> 00:20:42,733
how do we prepare for both possibility yeah

562
00:20:42,733 --> 00:20:44,600
this is where those risk management strategies

563
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,466
we discussed come into play great

564
00:20:46,566 --> 00:20:49,666
it's not about trying to perfectly time the market okay

565
00:20:49,666 --> 00:20:52,800
it's about having a plan for different scenarios right

566
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:54,533
a plan that protects your capital

567
00:20:54,533 --> 00:20:56,000
and your peace of mind okay

568
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,200
risk management 1:01 exactly

569
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,166
let's recap those core principles

570
00:21:00,166 --> 00:21:01,600
all right what's the first rule

571
00:21:01,766 --> 00:21:07,266
never invest more than you can afford to lose okay

572
00:21:07,366 --> 00:21:09,600
this is fundamental to any investment right

573
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,233
but especially important in the world of crypto

574
00:21:12,466 --> 00:21:14,766
where volatility is the name of the game

575
00:21:14,766 --> 00:21:16,600
so don't go all in exactly

576
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,466
no matter how tempting it might feel

577
00:21:18,466 --> 00:21:20,166
that's right got it

578
00:21:20,366 --> 00:21:22,466
what else is crucial diversification

579
00:21:22,533 --> 00:21:24,800
diversification diversification

580
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:25,966
okay I'm hearing you

581
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:27,800
we can't trust this enough right

582
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:30,966
spread your investments across different asset classes

583
00:21:31,066 --> 00:21:32,833
bitcoin large cap stocks

584
00:21:33,166 --> 00:21:34,866
gold Treasury bonds

585
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:36,266
and maybe a sprinkle

586
00:21:36,266 --> 00:21:38,266
those old coins you're curious about right

587
00:21:38,300 --> 00:21:40,000
a little bit of everything exactly

588
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,066
this helps to balance your portfolio

589
00:21:42,133 --> 00:21:43,800
and manage your overall risk

590
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,766
diversification is Q check

591
00:21:45,766 --> 00:21:48,166
yeah but what about timing right

592
00:21:48,166 --> 00:21:50,233
when should we buy or sell

593
00:21:50,333 --> 00:21:52,933
ah the million dollar question right

594
00:21:52,933 --> 00:21:54,766
there's no magic formula right

595
00:21:54,766 --> 00:21:55,700
but dollar cost

596
00:21:55,700 --> 00:21:58,400
averaging can be a really effective strategy

597
00:21:58,900 --> 00:22:01,166
especially in a market as volatile as crypto

598
00:22:01,166 --> 00:22:02,866
remind me how that works again

599
00:22:02,866 --> 00:22:05,600
instead of trying to time the market perfectly okay

600
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,300
you invest a set amount of money at regular intervals

601
00:22:08,366 --> 00:22:10,366
regardless of the price hmm

602
00:22:10,366 --> 00:22:11,066
this helps you

603
00:22:11,066 --> 00:22:13,500
average out your purchase price over time

604
00:22:13,500 --> 00:22:14,000
okay

605
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,400
and takes the emotion out of your investment decisions

606
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,866
so it's a discipline consistent approach

607
00:22:18,866 --> 00:22:21,766
exact no impulsive buys or panic sells

608
00:22:22,066 --> 00:22:23,966
that's it that makes a lot of sense

609
00:22:23,966 --> 00:22:26,300
but what about those times when the market goes wild

610
00:22:26,300 --> 00:22:26,600
okay

611
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,900
like during a massive Bull Run or a sharp correction

612
00:22:30,366 --> 00:22:31,666
should we adapt our strategy

613
00:22:31,666 --> 00:22:34,466
then flexibility is essential okay

614
00:22:34,466 --> 00:22:37,500
while dollar cost averaging is a great foundation right

615
00:22:37,900 --> 00:22:39,566
you might want to adjust your approach

616
00:22:39,566 --> 00:22:42,633
depending on market conditions and your risk tolerance

617
00:22:42,666 --> 00:22:45,200
so it's not a set it and forget it approach right

618
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:46,700
we need to stay engaged

619
00:22:46,700 --> 00:22:49,600
keep learning and adapt to the ever changing landscape

620
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,100
absolutely stay informed

621
00:22:51,100 --> 00:22:51,533
uh huh

622
00:22:51,533 --> 00:22:54,200
monitor those key indicators like the unemployment rate

623
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,700
right and be ready to make adjustments okay

624
00:22:56,700 --> 00:22:58,600
this has been incredibly insightful

625
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,600
good we've covered so much ground today

626
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,300
we have but before we wrap up

627
00:23:02,300 --> 00:23:04,066
I have one last question okay

628
00:23:04,066 --> 00:23:05,666
what about you uh huh

629
00:23:05,700 --> 00:23:07,600
how are you positioning yourself

630
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,133
for the future of bitcoin right

631
00:23:09,133 --> 00:23:10,966
what's your personal strategy

632
00:23:11,166 --> 00:23:11,400
well

633
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,566
I firmly believe in the long term potential of bitcoin

634
00:23:14,566 --> 00:23:16,133
okay I think it's a game changer

635
00:23:16,133 --> 00:23:19,200
uh huh a technology that could revolutionize finances

636
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,400
we know it so you're in it for the long haul

637
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:22,366
absolutely

638
00:23:22,566 --> 00:23:25,833
but I'm also realistic about the risks involved

639
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,966
that's why I stick to the principles we've discussed

640
00:23:29,733 --> 00:23:31,600
a diversified portfolio

641
00:23:32,766 --> 00:23:35,300
consistent dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin

642
00:23:35,300 --> 00:23:38,300
right and staying informed about market developments

643
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:42,300
staying informed and what about those alt coins

644
00:23:42,300 --> 00:23:43,900
are there any projects on your radar

645
00:23:43,900 --> 00:23:46,400
that you're particularly excited about

646
00:23:46,566 --> 00:23:49,466
I'm fascinated by the decentralized finance space

647
00:23:49,466 --> 00:23:51,400
also known as Defi Defi

648
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:53,566
there's a lot of innovation happening there

649
00:23:53,566 --> 00:23:55,166
and I'm curious to see how it unfolds

650
00:23:55,166 --> 00:23:57,266
yeah Defi is definitely a hot topic

651
00:23:57,266 --> 00:23:58,466
anything else catching your eye

652
00:23:58,466 --> 00:24:02,066
I'm also intrigued by the potential of nfts

653
00:24:02,066 --> 00:24:03,700
or nonforgible tokens

654
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,666
I think they could reshape how we view ownership

655
00:24:06,666 --> 00:24:08,300
and digital assets right

656
00:24:08,300 --> 00:24:09,533
it's a whole new world

657
00:24:09,533 --> 00:24:11,466
they're creating entirely new economies

658
00:24:11,466 --> 00:24:13,200
in ways of interacting online

659
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:14,633
defi NFTs

660
00:24:14,666 --> 00:24:16,600
you're definitely keeping your finger on the pulse

661
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,333
of the cryptoworld trying to

662
00:24:18,333 --> 00:24:19,133
but most importantly

663
00:24:19,133 --> 00:24:21,566
you're approaching it all with a balanced perspective

664
00:24:21,566 --> 00:24:23,500
combining your enthusiasm with caution

665
00:24:23,500 --> 00:24:25,100
and smart risk management

666
00:24:25,100 --> 00:24:25,933
that's the key takeaway

667
00:24:25,933 --> 00:24:27,366
I hope our listeners will embrace

668
00:24:27,366 --> 00:24:28,700
yeah Bitcoin

669
00:24:28,700 --> 00:24:31,600
and the crypto space offer tremendous opportunities

670
00:24:31,933 --> 00:24:34,866
but it's crucial to approach them with a clear head

671
00:24:35,100 --> 00:24:36,366
a sound strategy

672
00:24:36,566 --> 00:24:38,566
and a commitment to continuous learning

673
00:24:38,566 --> 00:24:40,500
there's always more to discover

674
00:24:40,966 --> 00:24:43,133
and the landscape is always evolving

675
00:24:43,133 --> 00:24:44,000
beautifully said

676
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,600
this deep dive has been a fantastic journey

677
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:47,366
it has been

678
00:24:47,366 --> 00:24:49,533
thank you so much for sharing your expertise with us

679
00:24:49,533 --> 00:24:51,166
today it's been my pleasure

680
00:24:51,166 --> 00:24:53,333
and to our listeners out there yes

681
00:24:53,333 --> 00:24:55,500
the crypto world is full of surprises

682
00:24:55,733 --> 00:24:57,333
stay curious stay informed

683
00:24:57,333 --> 00:24:58,800
and never stop exploring

684
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:00,433
could have said it better myself

685
00:25:00,466 --> 00:25:02,566
and on that note we'll wrap things up for today

686
00:25:02,566 --> 00:25:04,233
but the conversation doesn't end here

687
00:25:04,500 --> 00:25:05,766
we'll be back soon with more

688
00:25:05,766 --> 00:25:08,466
deep dives into the fascinating worlds of finance

689
00:25:08,466 --> 00:25:09,133
technology

690
00:25:09,133 --> 00:25:11,633
and all the exciting intersections in between

691
00:25:11,866 --> 00:25:13,666
until then happy investing

692
00:25:13,666 --> 00:25:16,100
and remember knowledge is your greatest asset
