Okay, so have you ever wondered if AI could actually predict
who will win an election?
Oh yeah, especially during an election year,
it's definitely something you think about.
Right, exactly, and that's what this research paper
we're looking at is all about.
Yeah, and they use these things
called large language models.
LLMs.
Yeah, you got it.
And those are super interesting
because they don't just crunch numbers.
Oh, so it's not just statistics?
Nope, they actually can understand and generate
like human-like text, you know?
Wow.
So think about them like sifting through all these speeches
and social media posts, even news articles,
just to kind of get a sense of how people feel
about the candidates.
That's really wild.
I like, I never thought about it that way.
Yeah, it's pretty cool.
But I can already see how predicting elections
is like way more complicated than say predicting the weather.
Oh, absolutely.
Because it's not just data points, right?
Right, you're dealing with people like their opinions,
all these factors that come together.
And actually one of the biggest challenges
for the researchers was like getting
enough detailed voter information.
Oh yeah, I can imagine,
because that's probably really hard to come by.
Yeah, exactly.
It's expensive and there's all these privacy concerns.
So they had to get a little creative.
Okay, so what did they do?
So they used this thing called synthetic data.
Synthetic data.
Yeah, basically they created like virtual voters.
Wait, so they just like made up voters?
Well, not exactly.
Think of it more like building a simulated world,
you know, and they populate this world
with these virtual voters.
And each voter has like a realistic background
and a demographic profile.
And all that is based on publicly available information.
So they're not just making stuff up.
Oh, that's pretty clever.
Yeah, this way they could test their AI
on like a massive scale.
Okay, that makes sense.
Yeah, without running into those real world data limitations.
But wouldn't just looking at demographics
be kind of limiting?
That's a good point.
Because elections are about way more than just age
to where someone lives.
Right, yeah, you're absolutely right.
The researchers knew that.
Okay.
So to capture that human element,
you know, they took it a step further
and factored in the political climate.
The political climate,
so like what was going on at the time?
Exactly, like each candidate's policy
positions their past experiences
and even how they were perceived
on that whole liberal conservative spectrum.
So they weren't just throwing a bunch of random data
at the AI?
No, no, they were really trying to make it think
like a person.
No.
Trying to simulate how someone might actually weigh
all these different factors
before deciding who to vote for.
That's really interesting.
Yeah, and to do that,
they used a method called multi-step reasoning.
Multi-step reasoning, okay.
So instead of just giving the AI all the info
at once they broke the process down,
like imagine you wouldn't just look at someone's age
and be like, oh, they'll vote this way.
Right.
You'd consider their background,
what they're saying, what's happening politically, you know.
Yeah, it makes it a lot more nuanced for sure.
Exactly, and that's what the AI was doing.
So first it looked at where a synthetic voter
would fall on the political spectrum
based on their virtual profile
and the current political landscape.
And then in a separate step,
it would predict how that voter would cast their ballot.
Okay, so they've trained this AI,
given it all this data in a way to reason through it.
But did it actually work?
Yeah, that's the big question, right?
Right, like did it predict the outcome of real elections?
Well, you know, no AI is a perfect crystal ball.
Of course not.
Especially when it comes to something
as complex as an election.
But they did put their AI to the test
using data from the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections.
Okay.
And the results were surprisingly good,
especially with that multi-step reasoning.
Really?
Yeah, and you know what's really interesting?
They actually took this AI,
the one they trained on past elections
and used it to predict the 2024 election.
Wait, hold on.
They're predicting the future with this thing.
Well, you have to remember,
this prediction was made like back in November 2023.
Okay.
So it's really based on a snapshot
of the political scene at that time, you know?
Yeah, that makes more sense.
It's not like a sure thing or anything.
It's more like a what if scenario.
Right, okay, I get it.
Just based on the information they had at the time.
So did the AI come up with anything surprising?
Well, one of the most interesting things
was a potential shift in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin?
Oh, that's interesting.
Yeah, actually predicted a Trump win in 2024.
Really?
Yeah, which would be a pretty big deal.
Yeah, for sure.
Especially considering how close it was in 2020.
Exactly.
Hmm, so what's behind that shift?
I wonder like, is it demographics,
the political climate or something else entirely?
You know, the paper doesn't really go into
the specifics for each state.
Oh, okay.
But remember, the AI was looking
at a whole bunch of factors,
you know, everything from policy positions
to how each candidate resonated with different demographics.
Right, and we don't even know
the Democratic nominee will be yet.
Yeah, that's true.
The AI was just assuming it would be Kamala Harris.
Huh, it's crazy to think how much things can change
between now and the actual election.
Oh, for sure.
Like the whole picture could be totally different.
Yeah, exactly.
These AI predictions are tied to the data
that was available at a specific point in time.
It's like a moving target.
You got it.
So even though it's tempting to see these 2024 predictions
as like some kind of fortune telling.
Right.
We really have to remember,
they're just one piece of a much larger puzzle.
And a constantly changing puzzle at that.
Exactly.
You know, the real value of this research
isn't about getting the future exactly right.
It's more about what the AI can tell us
about human behavior.
Oh, I see.
Especially when it comes to something
as complex as politics.
So it's like getting a fresh perspective
on how elections really work.
Yeah, like a new set of eyes, you know.
Because the AI can see those patterns and trends
that we might miss.
Exactly.
And help us understand how voters
actually make their decisions.
Right.
And that could lead to some really interesting discussions.
You know?
Yeah, I could see that.
And help us move beyond like those simple assumptions
we all have.
To like really dig into the issues that matter.
So this AI model, it's not just about like
throwing data into a black box and getting a prediction.
Nope, not at all.
They really put a lot of thought into how they built it.
Yeah.
To make sure it could actually simulate
human decision making.
They did.
And that's why they used that combination
of real world data and synthetic data.
Oh, right, the synthetic voters.
Exactly.
So they could run all kinds of simulations, you know,
and test different scenarios without needing access
to real people's private info.
Like a giant virtual lab.
Yeah, it's a great way to put it.
Where you can play with all these different variables
and see how they affect the outcome.
Exactly.
They could change demographics, the political climate,
really explore how those changes might play out.
That's so cool.
And then you have that multi-step reasoning
we talked about.
Right.
And that's why it tries to mimic how a real person
thinks about voting.
Yeah, so they broke the process down
into those smaller, more nuanced steps.
So first they figure out where a synthetic voter falls
on the political spectrum.
Right.
By giving the AI info about the voter's background
and the policy positions of both parties.
OK.
And then they could categorize the voter, you know,
as like very liberal, somewhat conservative, moderate,
and so on.
So it's not just about demographics.
It's about understanding their political leanings too.
Exactly.
And that leads us to the second step,
where they use all that information, the voter's profile,
their estimated political leaning,
the details about the candidates,
and then they predict their vote.
It's like a two-part process.
Understand the voter, then simulate their decision making.
And did that approach actually work?
Did that multi-step reasoning hold up?
Yeah, when they tested it against real election results.
Well, no model is perfect.
But when they tested it on state level results,
the outcomes were pretty interesting.
Oh, really?
Like what?
Well, it seemed to be especially good
at predicting the outcomes in swing states, you know?
Oh, wow.
The ones that are always super close.
Exactly.
Those nail biters that often come down to just a handful
of votes.
Like it was picking up on something
that regular polls were missing.
That's what it looks like.
So this AI could actually help us understand those key states
even better.
It definitely seems like it's pointing in that direction.
Because those are the states that can really decide the whole
election.
Absolutely.
And you know, this also highlights the potential of AI
to complement our understanding of human behavior.
Not to replace it, but to work alongside it.
Exactly.
Especially in a field like politics
where the stakes are so high.
It's like opening up a whole new chapter
in how we think about elections.
That's a great way to put it.
This is really making me think, like,
what else could we use this kind of AI for?
Oh, yeah.
Like beyond just predicting elections.
I know it's pretty exciting to think about.
Like if they can understand all those factors that
go into voting behavior.
Right.
Imagine applying it to other stuff, too.
Like what?
Like how people respond to new policies
or make health care choices.
Oh, wow.
Even predict social trends, like what ideas will catch on
or how public opinion might change.
Yeah, like it could tell us what the next big thing is.
Right.
Exactly.
That's great.
It's like we're unlocking this whole new level of understanding
about human decisions.
I know.
It's kind of mind blowing.
Yeah.
But it also reminds us that AI is still just a tool.
Like any tool, it can be used for good or bad.
Yeah, that's true.
So it's up to us to make sure we use it responsibly and ethically.
For sure.
But OK, let's go back to that 2024 prediction for a second.
OK.
I'm still curious about what the AI found,
especially those potential shifts in those key states.
Right.
So just to reiterate, this was all based on data
from November 2023.
Right.
And we all know how fast things can change in politics.
Oh, yeah, for sure.
But even as a snapshot in time, it's pretty interesting.
Yeah, it's like a glimpse into one possible future.
Exactly, based on what they knew at the time.
So about those swing states you were talking about.
Yeah, remember how the AI seemed to be really good
at predicting those?
Yeah.
Well, Wisconsin was a perfect example.
OK.
It predicted a Trump win there in 2024.
Wow, that would be a huge flip from 2020.
Yeah, it would be pretty significant.
Do we know why it predicted that?
Like, was it demographics or something else?
Unfortunately, the paper doesn't really
give us all the details for each state.
Oh, OK.
But remember, they were looking at so many factors.
Policy positions, demographics, the whole political climate
is probably a mix of everything.
Yeah, that makes sense.
Oh, and don't forget, the AI was working with the assumption
that Kamala Harris would be the nominee.
Right.
So you can see how these predictions can change,
depending on even the smallest things.
Yeah, it's a pretty fluid situation.
New info could come out any day.
Exactly.
So what does all this mean for us,
like, as we're going into this election?
Yeah, should we believe these AI predictions
or just ignore them?
Right.
I think the big takeaway here is
that AI is becoming a really powerful tool in politics.
Yeah.
But it's not about replacing us, you know?
Our judgment.
Or ignoring what's actually happening in the world.
So it's more about adding another layer of understanding.
Exactly, like, seeing things from a different angle.
This research is really cool.
It shows how AI can help us understand human behavior.
And that's something worth paying attention to, for sure.
Well, thanks for taking us on this deep dive.
I feel like I learned a lot.
It was my pleasure.
And to all our listeners out there.
Yes.
As we go into this election year,
remember, AI can help us understand the trends and patterns.
But it's up to each of us to stay informed
and make our own decisions.
Exactly.
Well said.
Thanks again for joining us.
Thank you here.