WEBVTT

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Hi, Eric from Time to Retire here. I bought £3

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,000 worth of NASDAQ three times short this morning.

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Now, if you watch the financial press, you won't

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have missed that flurry of news around the NASDAQ

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and the S &amp;P 500 teetering on the brink of collapse.

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Now, this news has been mainly driven by the

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circular trading with Nvidia buying into OpenAI,

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who then returned the favor by buying Nvidia

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chips. Not a great look, you'll admit. But will

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this be enough to ruffle the feathers of the

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tech markets? I'm not so sure. But if you want

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to follow along, I'm going to sell my investments

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of £3 ,000 in 14 days on the 30th of October.

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And what I want to do is every day I'm going

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to post a video here with an update on how my

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£3 ,000 investment's getting on and what's happening

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in the US markets to drive any changes. Now,

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the NASDAQ three times short is a bit of a gamble.

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and as a youtuber i do get paid to produce silly

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content sometimes and as part of that i can afford

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to do silly things occasionally now if this was

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just my own investing i would not be doing something

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like this so please see this for what it is which

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is entertainment and definitely not any kind

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of financial advice now in case you don't know

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what the nasdaq 3x short is then I'll explain

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in the next few videos. But for now, all you

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need to know is that if the NASDAQ goes up by

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10 % in the next two weeks, I'll lose about £1

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,000. See you tomorrow. Hey guys, Eric from Time

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To Retire here. Yesterday, I put £3 ,000 into

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the NASDAQ three times short. And in 24 hours,

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I've made 5 .6 % on my investments. Just luck,

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you say? How very dare you. It's down to precision

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timing, expert knowledge, and an instinct for

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market changes. No, yeah, you're right. It's

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just pure luck. Probably sometime later today

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or Monday morning, things are going to flip and

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I'll probably be worse off than when I started.

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So this is day two of 14, because in 14 days,

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I'm going to cash in my investment to see how

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my gamble went. Now, I can tell you, I'm not

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hopeful really. I mean, here's the performance

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of the index I've invested in over the past six

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months. Grim, isn't it? There are even warnings

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on the investment page that holding this index

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for anything other than a day or two is never

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a good idea. So why am I doing it? Well, because

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I make YouTube content and I thought it'd be

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interesting. Now, I'm not recommending this and

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I'm not trying to give any financial advice here.

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So, I would absolutely love to cash in my £142

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.28 profit now and use it to buy lots of tapas

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next week when Tracy and I have a few days in

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Spain. But, in the interest of my YouTube channel,

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I'm going to leave it exactly where it is until

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the 30th of October. So I have one question for

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you. I put £3 ,000 in yesterday. Today I've got

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£3 ,140. In the comments below, I'd love it if

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you would put in your best guess of how much

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I will have on the 30th of October. Now, shorting

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or inverse position means the investment is designed

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to profit when the underlying asset or index

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goes down in value. So, for example. if the underlying

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index falls by one percent then a standard inverse

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product would aim to gain one percent now the

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3x or the triple leverage part means that the

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fund attempts to magnify the daily returns by

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a factor of three so an example here would be

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that if the underlying index falls by one percent

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the 3x your product aims to gain three percent

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or three times the inverse return and of course

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vice versa on that as well so my short position

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is not just a gamble it's actually a gamble on

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steroids i mean markets are closed over the weekend

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so i'm not gonna be able to let you know how

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i get on tomorrow or sunday but i will be back

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on monday and i'll let you know how i'm getting

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on then thanks for watching see you soon okay

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i'm an idiot i've lost over 10 % of my investments

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in 24 hours of trading. Now, Friday morning,

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my investment was at 5 .6 % up, and now as the

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markets open on Monday morning, I'm 4 .7 % down.

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Now, what did I do wrong? All the advice I hear

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is to invest in market indices. i invested in

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the nasdaq an index of us companies well with

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a tilt towards tech stops but it's still an index

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well two mistakes jump out immediately firstly

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i bought the inverse of the market so as the

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market goes up my investment goes down secondly

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i bought a product that uses derivatives to apply

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a three times multiplier to my investment so

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when it does go down it goes down three times

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faster Now, of course, the inverse would be true

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if the NASDAQ. My investment will go up by three

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times the amount. The only problem with that

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is that the NASDAQ has recently been on one of

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the best performance runs ever. So my little

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experiment is now in day five of 14 and over

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a third of the way through. Now, the experiment

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is to invest £3 ,000 in an attempt to. time the

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market for a crash in the ai stocks hey that's

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a really good idea and that's being widely predicted

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some even give the 29th of october as the day

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and i finish on the 30th now time in the market

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though is really a bad idea nobody can predict

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a market rise or a market fall over a 14 -day

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period now give me a 14 -year period I can give

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you the right direction 99 .9 % of the time.

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The market will go up in the next 14 years. And

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I'll take a bet from anybody on here on that.

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14 days though, that's a coin flip. Let's see

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how I get on tomorrow, where likely I'll be in

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an airport. More then. So, my NASDAQ experiment

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took quite the hit yesterday on day 5 of 14 of

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my stock market crash test. I mean, NASDAQ three

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times short. It hasn't moved much this morning,

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but the last few trading days have been a bit

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of a roller coaster. So this morning, I'm in

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an airport about to catch a flight, but I want

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to explain what went so wrong yesterday. Why

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did the NASDAQ increase so much? Well, this week,

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tech are really delivering some results. So we've

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got Netflix leading the charge today. And investors

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there are going to be looking at subscriber counts.

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But you've also got Coca -Cola. And their report

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today, and this will give a bit of a read on

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consumer strength. Now, tomorrow, Wednesday,

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all eyes are going to be on Tesla. I mean, it's

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coming off a record quarter for deliveries, but

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it is facing quite a lot of questions about its

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lower cost models, thinner margins, competition

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from China. Intel also reports on Thursday. analysts

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there will be watching for the recovery of the

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pc and the data center businesses and they're

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both under pressure from ai driven competitors

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like nvidia and amd so is there any good news

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for me this week well the september cpi report

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hits this friday and it's expected to show inflation

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does remain stubbornly high particularly in services.

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Economists anticipate that the headline figure

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will hover around 3 .1 % year over year. Now,

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the ongoing government shutdown means economic

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visibility is still pretty murky, really. Much

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of the usual labour and spending data hasn't

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actually been released for three weeks, and that

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makes the CPI data even more important. Now,

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Fed officials have signalled that another 25

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basis point cut is likely. if inflation cools

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just enough to give policymakers room. And the

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market seems to be pricing that in with some

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growing confidence. So I'll see you at the halfway

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point tomorrow, day 7 of 14, from some distant

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shore. Okay, day 7 of 14, halfway through my

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experimenting time in the market crash. I've

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got a few different pension pots and the one

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I'm using for this experiment is my 10 -year

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SIP or the free trade SIP that I won't be actually

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accessing for at least 10 years. This means my

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risk appetite is a bit higher than my main pot

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which I hold in Interactive Investor. And that's

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a pot I'll be drawing down from in the next 10

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years. Now, anybody who is a member of my channel

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on here will know that I detail my individual

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investments regularly. So at the midway point

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through my NASDAQ three times short, I'm £94

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down on my £3 ,000 investments or just over 3

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% for the week. So I'm happy overall. No sign

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of that imminent stock market crash. See you

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tomorrow. So week one is behind me in my two

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week experiment to time the market for a crash.

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Last night was the big one. the Tesla earnings

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call. Now, Tesla said its profit fell more than

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a quarter due to a trio of issues, an increased

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cost of US tariffs, the loss of emissions credit

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revenue, and also the vast expense of its pivot

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towards robotics and AI. All three of these things

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ate into its margins. Now, Elon Musk said its

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third quarter adjusted net income fell by 29

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% year on year. to 1 .8 billion which missed

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the expectations of 1 .9 billion. Now investors

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had hoped for a boost from record vehicle sales

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in the quarter as consumers rushed to make purchases

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before the end of the US green vehicle incentive

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but extra costs including spending on AI talents

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actually eroded Tesla's profits. Revenue did

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surpass the analyst estimates of £26 .6 billion,

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rising 12 % to £28 .1 billion. However, its operating

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margin of almost half to 5 .8 % from 10 .8 %

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per year. This meant that Tesla's shares on the

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announcement dipped by 3 .5 % in aftermarket

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trading. It'll actually be interesting to see

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where they go when the markets do open a bit

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later. So, for the week, anyway, I'm £630 up

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in this portfolio, but £34 down on my NASDAQ

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3X. See you tomorrow. Eric from Town to Retire

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here. Welcome to day 9 of 14 of my time in the

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market crash experiment. I mean, after some good

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news for me with a very poor Tesla quarterly

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report, I had some bad news from Intel. They

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did quite a bit better than the analysts expected.

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The share price jumped. up about seven percent

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overnight so over the nine days i'm in the red

00:13:38.690 --> 00:13:44.049
by 110 pound on my 3 000 pound investment now

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the whole premise of the experiment is based

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on ai creating a bubble latitude to burst now

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of course intel do make computer chips but they

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focus on cpus rather than gpus and the gpus are

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the ones that are driving the world of ai so

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for an indication that an ai bubble was imminent

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we'd be more looking to likes of nvidia results

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rather than intel or even microsoft google amazon

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all of whom are very heavily dependent on ai

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for their future growth my portfolio for the

00:14:21.149 --> 00:14:25.610
week is is up 1100 pound so overall i'm pretty

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happy see you tomorrow I'm Eric for Time to Retire.

00:14:33.509 --> 00:14:37.269
Now I'm nine and a half percent down in my time

00:14:37.269 --> 00:14:39.970
of the market crash with only three days left

00:14:39.970 --> 00:14:42.149
to recover my position. Now over the weekend

00:14:42.149 --> 00:14:44.789
I have been thinking about the impact of index

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investing on the markets and in particular the

00:14:47.789 --> 00:14:50.990
Nasdaq which is after all the index I'm betting

00:14:50.990 --> 00:14:56.190
against. Now in a fair marketplace the share

00:14:56.190 --> 00:14:58.750
price for companies who are overvalued based

00:14:58.750 --> 00:15:01.919
on their performance drops. And the share price

00:15:01.919 --> 00:15:05.519
increases for those that are undervalued. But

00:15:05.519 --> 00:15:10.179
passive index investing screws this up. The percentage

00:15:10.179 --> 00:15:12.860
of investments going to index funds, passive

00:15:12.860 --> 00:15:17.120
investing, has been growing rapidly. Passive

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funds account for around 29 % of the total investments

00:15:21.059 --> 00:15:24.120
across the world. But in the United States, where

00:15:24.120 --> 00:15:28.340
my Nasdaq 3X short lives, passive index funds,

00:15:28.460 --> 00:15:31.220
which include... index mutual funds and etfs

00:15:31.220 --> 00:15:35.639
have reached a significant milestone as of august

00:15:35.639 --> 00:15:39.840
2025 index mutual funds and etfs accounted for

00:15:39.840 --> 00:15:46.159
50 .6 of the total nest assets in long -term

00:15:46.159 --> 00:15:51.360
mutual funds and etfs been even worse for domestic

00:15:51.360 --> 00:15:54.559
equity funds where the index share of total assets

00:15:54.559 --> 00:15:59.480
is higher and reportedly at 61 .7 % and rising.

00:15:59.740 --> 00:16:03.580
So the idea that the share price for overvalued

00:16:03.580 --> 00:16:06.419
companies will drop, I think could be broken.

00:16:06.720 --> 00:16:10.500
Share price is so heavily influenced by people

00:16:10.500 --> 00:16:13.820
passively investing in the whole market. And

00:16:13.820 --> 00:16:17.159
my experiments is focused on the overvaluation

00:16:17.159 --> 00:16:21.320
of the Magnificent Seven because our index investments

00:16:21.960 --> 00:16:24.799
uh market capital weighted then every time you

00:16:24.799 --> 00:16:27.559
put a hundred pound into a nasdaq investment

00:16:27.559 --> 00:16:30.659
you're putting the largest percentage of that

00:16:30.659 --> 00:16:34.500
into the magnificent seven even if they're overvalued

00:16:34.500 --> 00:16:38.059
so has the stock market been broken by too much

00:16:38.059 --> 00:16:41.080
passive index investing let me know in the comments

00:16:41.080 --> 00:16:46.100
and i'll catch you up tomorrow two days two days

00:16:46.100 --> 00:16:49.019
left to recover my 10 loss on my experiments

00:16:49.759 --> 00:16:53.340
to time a market crash for the Nasdaq. Now, I've

00:16:53.340 --> 00:16:57.059
blamed Intel, I've blamed index investors, but

00:16:57.059 --> 00:17:01.399
it's about time we faced reality. A reality we

00:17:01.399 --> 00:17:04.900
knew all along. Time in the market is not big,

00:17:05.000 --> 00:17:11.279
and it's not clever. Fortunately, my entire portfolio

00:17:11.279 --> 00:17:14.480
is made up of medium -term investments that have

00:17:14.480 --> 00:17:17.880
done really well, and I'm up about 25 % over

00:17:17.880 --> 00:17:20.069
the last six months. And that's even when you

00:17:20.069 --> 00:17:24.069
include my failed bet on the market crash for

00:17:24.069 --> 00:17:28.150
the NASDAQ. Imagine, though, I'd gone heavy.

00:17:28.430 --> 00:17:31.609
I mean, as it is, I put about 1 .5 % of my SIP

00:17:31.609 --> 00:17:35.150
portfolio into this experiment. So a 10 % loss

00:17:35.150 --> 00:17:40.309
reflects less than 0 .2%. That's pretty much

00:17:40.309 --> 00:17:42.910
a flicker in the volatile market environment

00:17:42.910 --> 00:17:46.799
we're currently invested in. Anyway. As promised,

00:17:46.900 --> 00:17:49.900
I will be selling up on my NASDAQ three times

00:17:49.900 --> 00:17:52.579
short position on Thursday morning. And I will

00:17:52.579 --> 00:17:54.759
come back to you then. Lest anything dramatic

00:17:54.759 --> 00:17:58.259
happens over the next 48 hours. I'll see you

00:17:58.259 --> 00:18:01.319
Thursday morning, 30th of October. My experiments

00:18:01.319 --> 00:18:05.539
over. Over the two weeks I held the NASDAQ three

00:18:05.539 --> 00:18:08.539
times short, my investments dropped by nearly

00:18:08.539 --> 00:18:13.890
11%, meaning a £3 ,000 investment. ended up at

00:18:13.890 --> 00:18:19.670
£2 ,673. So big shout out to Mike Todd who predicted

00:18:19.670 --> 00:18:24.049
my investment would end up at £2 ,640. So really,

00:18:24.049 --> 00:18:26.950
really close. Now the time in the experiment

00:18:26.950 --> 00:18:30.829
to end on the 30th of October wasn't random as

00:18:30.829 --> 00:18:34.150
you probably guessed. The Federal Reserve announced

00:18:34.150 --> 00:18:39.450
a 25 % basis points cut last night and that was

00:18:39.450 --> 00:18:42.210
as the markets expected. And had been priced

00:18:42.210 --> 00:18:44.849
in for months, to be honest. Now, if they hadn't

00:18:44.849 --> 00:18:47.910
cut rates, this could have been a very different

00:18:47.910 --> 00:18:52.789
ending. Now, on the same evening, we had Microsoft,

00:18:53.230 --> 00:18:57.990
Google and Meta with quarterly results. Again,

00:18:58.049 --> 00:19:01.789
but no major deviation from market expectations

00:19:01.789 --> 00:19:06.150
there. And lastly, Trump announced an agreement

00:19:06.150 --> 00:19:11.339
on trade with China. Although my investment did

00:19:11.339 --> 00:19:15.200
improve today by 3%, it wasn't nearly enough

00:19:15.200 --> 00:19:19.099
to reverse my losses. But hey -ho, the moral

00:19:19.099 --> 00:19:21.480
of this little story is that time in the market

00:19:21.480 --> 00:19:24.440
is never a good idea. Thanks for watching.
