WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.540 So I'm just a few short weeks away from my final 00:00:03.540 --> 00:00:06.320 retirement. Now I've been thinking about what's 00:00:06.320 --> 00:00:10.599 the best way to protect ourselves in the UK from 00:00:10.599 --> 00:00:14.359 Trump. And maybe we should try to outwit Trump 00:00:14.359 --> 00:00:17.600 by teaming up with other countries who think 00:00:17.600 --> 00:00:20.859 the same way that we do. You know what? It's 00:00:20.859 --> 00:00:23.960 not just a pipe dream. There are really strong 00:00:23.960 --> 00:00:27.460 signs that some major players are looking into 00:00:27.460 --> 00:00:30.820 this right now. If they can make it work, it 00:00:30.820 --> 00:00:34.939 would be game over for Trump's tariff game. Meanwhile, 00:00:35.320 --> 00:00:38.119 the stock markets worldwide are taking a hit. 00:00:38.219 --> 00:00:40.320 I mean, that's slightly better today, but we've 00:00:40.320 --> 00:00:44.880 had three solid days of drops. Trump's not going 00:00:44.880 --> 00:00:47.600 to let a little thing like the tariffs being 00:00:47.600 --> 00:00:50.619 completely lunacy stop him from carrying on. 00:00:50.899 --> 00:00:54.229 But hey, Canada's about to go into a general 00:00:54.229 --> 00:00:57.090 election later this month. And it could actually 00:00:57.090 --> 00:01:01.070 be a big turning point in the whole global trade 00:01:01.070 --> 00:01:03.630 mess, I think. I mean, if the Canadian Liberal 00:01:03.630 --> 00:01:06.170 Party wins, which I think looks pretty likely 00:01:06.170 --> 00:01:09.609 at the moment, and Mark Carney then stays on 00:01:09.609 --> 00:01:13.250 as Prime Minister, we could see something really 00:01:13.250 --> 00:01:17.670 interesting happening. Now, it might be seriously 00:01:17.670 --> 00:01:21.790 bad news for Donald Trump. Apparently, Macron, 00:01:22.090 --> 00:01:25.269 Carney and a few others have really actually 00:01:25.269 --> 00:01:28.430 been chatting about how to handle Trump's protectionist 00:01:28.430 --> 00:01:32.269 tactics. It's not exactly a secret but the big 00:01:32.269 --> 00:01:35.290 question is what are they actually saying to 00:01:35.290 --> 00:01:38.609 each other? Well Trump's strategy seems to be 00:01:38.609 --> 00:01:41.769 getting countries to come to him, cap in hand 00:01:41.769 --> 00:01:45.450 individually and agree to much worse trade deals 00:01:45.450 --> 00:01:48.769 than they had before. And maybe that's in exchange 00:01:48.769 --> 00:01:51.629 for some kind of a break on these extortion of 00:01:51.629 --> 00:01:54.810 tariffs he's been touting. But that would mostly 00:01:54.810 --> 00:01:57.849 benefit America. We've heard that several countries 00:01:57.849 --> 00:02:00.530 have dropped everything to Russian to talk to 00:02:00.530 --> 00:02:03.790 Trump -less people. I mean, the White House is 00:02:03.790 --> 00:02:06.170 boasting that 50 different governments have been 00:02:06.170 --> 00:02:08.669 trying to do this, but kind of who believes any 00:02:08.669 --> 00:02:11.030 of these stats coming out the White House nowadays? 00:02:12.050 --> 00:02:16.270 But that's not really what individual countries 00:02:16.270 --> 00:02:19.229 want right now. Some might think they've got 00:02:19.229 --> 00:02:22.159 a choice. Though for most countries, hitting 00:02:22.159 --> 00:02:25.319 back with their own tariffs isn't an option. 00:02:25.900 --> 00:02:28.199 I mean, China's retaliated, haven't they? And 00:02:28.199 --> 00:02:30.560 they've got the power to do that a lot more. 00:02:30.800 --> 00:02:33.680 And Canada, you know, proud country they've responded 00:02:33.680 --> 00:02:37.419 to. And the EU is looking at what they can do. 00:02:37.759 --> 00:02:41.020 Pretty much everyone else. It's pointless. If 00:02:41.020 --> 00:02:43.400 Trump is serious about taking a short -term head 00:02:43.400 --> 00:02:46.860 for long -term gain, then he genuinely seems 00:02:46.860 --> 00:02:50.680 to believe what he's saying. and these retaliatory 00:02:50.680 --> 00:02:54.639 tariffs, they're just not going to cut it. The 00:02:54.639 --> 00:02:57.319 smaller countries have got no bargaining power. 00:02:57.460 --> 00:02:59.860 But maybe there's another way, an alliance of 00:02:59.860 --> 00:03:02.199 countries that actually are committed to the 00:03:02.199 --> 00:03:05.439 current kind of rule -based trading system. If 00:03:05.439 --> 00:03:10.000 you add up the economies of Canada, the UK, Australia, 00:03:10.159 --> 00:03:14.419 Japan, the EU, they're actually bigger as a group 00:03:14.419 --> 00:03:17.659 than the Americas and they do a lot of trade 00:03:17.659 --> 00:03:20.180 with each other. I mean, as well as America as 00:03:20.180 --> 00:03:23.539 well, obviously, but America definitely has the 00:03:23.539 --> 00:03:26.280 biggest single economy, so they can pick off 00:03:26.280 --> 00:03:29.639 other countries one by one. But if a few of us 00:03:29.639 --> 00:03:32.979 band together, it could be a different ball game. 00:03:33.599 --> 00:03:37.219 To start with, you'd need countries that only... 00:03:37.550 --> 00:03:39.930 have big economies and trade a lot with America, 00:03:40.169 --> 00:03:43.629 but also you would need ones that are already 00:03:43.629 --> 00:03:46.069 used to working together. And once it proves 00:03:46.069 --> 00:03:48.569 it can work, it could easily bring in other countries 00:03:48.569 --> 00:03:52.069 as well. To me, it makes sense. It makes sense 00:03:52.069 --> 00:03:53.949 that the markets that are the ones I've been 00:03:53.949 --> 00:03:56.069 talking about, the ones that are already trading 00:03:56.069 --> 00:04:00.189 with each other probably do see eye to eye on 00:04:00.189 --> 00:04:03.710 preferring a systems based on rules, not just 00:04:03.710 --> 00:04:05.849 throwing your weight around and bullying your 00:04:05.849 --> 00:04:09.000 mates. And they definitely don't want to give 00:04:09.000 --> 00:04:11.919 in to Trump's demands. If we can actually get 00:04:11.919 --> 00:04:15.360 this alliance together, our combined economies 00:04:15.360 --> 00:04:19.420 are a bit bigger than America's, and that would 00:04:19.420 --> 00:04:23.079 mean we can make decisions a bit more like America 00:04:23.079 --> 00:04:26.939 does, really. They've got a single leader, especially 00:04:26.939 --> 00:04:29.500 now that their Congress has pretty much stepped 00:04:29.500 --> 00:04:33.160 back. Sure, our national interests between all 00:04:33.160 --> 00:04:35.839 these countries might be different, but the incentive 00:04:35.839 --> 00:04:38.439 to work together at the moment is definitely 00:04:38.439 --> 00:04:41.439 huge. I mean, what's the alternative? Well, there's 00:04:41.439 --> 00:04:44.939 probably a global recession letting Trump pick 00:04:44.939 --> 00:04:48.459 us off one by one on the way. And that's what 00:04:48.459 --> 00:04:50.639 he's doing with these small economies, scrambling 00:04:50.639 --> 00:04:54.519 to talk to him. Now, if this alliance actually 00:04:54.519 --> 00:04:57.639 does happen and they do start opening up trade 00:04:57.639 --> 00:05:00.759 routes between themselves, what you'd have is 00:05:00.759 --> 00:05:04.560 a trading network that could really rival America. 00:05:05.399 --> 00:05:08.639 But whether they have a bonus that hasn't shut 00:05:08.639 --> 00:05:11.600 out the rest of the world as well. So that would 00:05:11.600 --> 00:05:14.459 be game over for Trump's tactics. I mean, seriously, 00:05:14.660 --> 00:05:18.180 it would. Now, I'm not saying it'll be easy to 00:05:18.180 --> 00:05:21.720 do that, but if our countries can find a way 00:05:21.720 --> 00:05:25.240 to soften the blow, maybe even avoid a recession 00:05:25.240 --> 00:05:29.980 altogether, then Trump's in trouble. Carney wins 00:05:29.980 --> 00:05:34.319 the Canadian election. He seems really keen to 00:05:34.319 --> 00:05:36.639 be the driving force behind this alliance, which 00:05:36.639 --> 00:05:41.800 I think is why Canada could be so important. 00:05:42.420 --> 00:05:44.560 Carney's the one that's really pushing for this, 00:05:44.660 --> 00:05:47.240 and he'd be in a great position to lead it. This 00:05:47.240 --> 00:05:51.680 isn't just some wild idea. Canada's already been 00:05:51.680 --> 00:05:55.160 working on closer trade ties with the EU. Labour 00:05:55.160 --> 00:05:58.170 wanted something similar before, but... It actually 00:05:58.170 --> 00:06:01.769 becomes a lot less controversial now when you're 00:06:01.769 --> 00:06:04.389 facing threats from Trump. Plus doing it with 00:06:04.389 --> 00:06:07.329 Canada, who are a fellow Commonwealth country, 00:06:07.829 --> 00:06:11.170 makes it seem a lot less like some kind of political 00:06:11.170 --> 00:06:14.009 statement to the public. I mean, working with 00:06:14.009 --> 00:06:16.769 Canada, nobody's trying to accuse Canada of wanting 00:06:16.769 --> 00:06:21.810 to join the EU. So it wouldn't be seen as a way 00:06:21.810 --> 00:06:25.750 to sneakily reverse Brexit with the EU. What 00:06:25.750 --> 00:06:28.740 we're doing is exactly what Canada's doing, which 00:06:28.740 --> 00:06:31.720 is building an alliance. And that would avoid 00:06:31.720 --> 00:06:34.040 the controversy, which you know, Labour's been 00:06:34.040 --> 00:06:37.139 trying to avoid any talk about Brexit at all. 00:06:37.639 --> 00:06:39.819 If you can't get good access to American markets, 00:06:39.879 --> 00:06:42.879 we absolutely have to improve our access to the 00:06:42.879 --> 00:06:45.639 European markets. But this alliance could also 00:06:45.639 --> 00:06:48.579 mean Canada and the UK enjoying a much closer 00:06:48.579 --> 00:06:50.519 relationship with each other, which is something 00:06:50.519 --> 00:06:53.120 that Carly's been talking about and wanting. 00:06:53.660 --> 00:06:56.839 Now remember, The post Brexit trade talks with 00:06:56.839 --> 00:06:59.420 Canada kind of fell apart because of cheese, 00:06:59.540 --> 00:07:02.139 believe it or not. So there's definitely room 00:07:02.139 --> 00:07:04.600 for improvements. And if we can work on a different 00:07:04.600 --> 00:07:07.480 kind of arrangement, one that works for us both, 00:07:08.139 --> 00:07:11.759 that'd be a big step forward in my eyes. Okay, 00:07:12.100 --> 00:07:15.500 so this isn't just about trade across the Atlantic, 00:07:15.699 --> 00:07:20.060 right? We're talking Australia, Brazil, a bunch 00:07:20.060 --> 00:07:22.720 of others too, and Labour's already doing some 00:07:22.720 --> 00:07:25.899 things. fit into this idea. I mean, Starm has 00:07:25.899 --> 00:07:29.060 been pushing back the deadline for hybrid cars, 00:07:29.060 --> 00:07:31.899 for example, which shows there's some kind of 00:07:31.899 --> 00:07:34.500 change in the politics there. And basically any 00:07:34.500 --> 00:07:36.759 country that's comfortable trading with the EU, 00:07:37.120 --> 00:07:40.060 which would be obviously the core of this kind 00:07:40.060 --> 00:07:43.180 of alliance, they'll be feeling the pinch from 00:07:43.180 --> 00:07:45.819 Trump's tariffs, and they might just jump on 00:07:45.819 --> 00:07:48.000 board. It could really turn into something big, 00:07:48.000 --> 00:07:51.600 I think. You know, sometimes you find unity when 00:07:51.600 --> 00:07:54.600 things get tough. And what about China? They 00:07:54.600 --> 00:07:56.360 could do something similar with countries they 00:07:56.360 --> 00:08:00.160 get along with better. Or if this new trading 00:08:00.160 --> 00:08:03.319 network proves it to stand up to Trump, then 00:08:03.319 --> 00:08:06.360 China might even decide to trade more with us. 00:08:06.740 --> 00:08:08.939 I mean, we're not talking a full -on free trade 00:08:08.939 --> 00:08:11.980 area here. Just keeping trade barriers as low 00:08:11.980 --> 00:08:14.939 as possible between us all. Now, I imagine Trump's 00:08:14.939 --> 00:08:17.639 reacting to that. He'd be throwing a right tantrum 00:08:17.639 --> 00:08:21.120 because his plans would only work on these really 00:08:21.120 --> 00:08:25.139 small countries. And his billionaire compatriots 00:08:25.139 --> 00:08:28.360 would be complaining because Trump's messing 00:08:28.360 --> 00:08:30.120 with their companies and they're losing a lot 00:08:30.120 --> 00:08:32.860 of money at the moment. And generally the Republicans, 00:08:33.000 --> 00:08:35.840 they'd be moaning as well because the economy 00:08:35.840 --> 00:08:39.139 is going down the drain in America. And even 00:08:39.139 --> 00:08:42.200 with the kind of voter suppression tricks they're 00:08:42.200 --> 00:08:44.700 playing in America at the moment, they could 00:08:44.700 --> 00:08:48.460 be hammered in the midterms. Now Trump's acting 00:08:48.460 --> 00:08:50.740 a bit like a mafia boss at the moment of the 00:08:50.740 --> 00:08:53.750 Republicans. But if he stops lying in their pockets 00:08:53.750 --> 00:08:57.450 and loses his power, even threatening their positions 00:08:57.450 --> 00:09:00.070 in the primaries, this bullying tactic's definitely 00:09:00.070 --> 00:09:05.269 won't work anymore. His whole plan is already 00:09:05.269 --> 00:09:08.049 starting to fall apart. Even his own secretary 00:09:08.049 --> 00:09:12.009 of state is contradicting what Trump's saying. 00:09:12.570 --> 00:09:15.450 I mean, they've got no idea what's going on. 00:09:15.950 --> 00:09:18.190 I guess that's the problem with billionaires. 00:09:18.330 --> 00:09:21.899 They're quite used to... not having anyone properly 00:09:21.899 --> 00:09:25.720 challenging them until suddenly they decided 00:09:25.720 --> 00:09:28.139 to want to run for office. Now back in the UK, 00:09:28.399 --> 00:09:31.320 the Conservatives and Reform UK are definitely 00:09:31.320 --> 00:09:34.360 going to push for us to cozy up a bit more to 00:09:34.360 --> 00:09:37.139 Trump and they're already doing that. But why 00:09:37.139 --> 00:09:39.940 are they doing it? Slightly lower tariffs? Trump's 00:09:39.940 --> 00:09:42.179 not offering us a good deal. He's been giving 00:09:42.179 --> 00:09:45.019 us a choice between a bad and a worse deal and 00:09:45.019 --> 00:09:47.679 I think the public's starting to see that really. 00:09:47.850 --> 00:09:51.070 Of course the UK government is still trying to 00:09:51.070 --> 00:09:53.509 get a good trade deal with the US and we continue 00:09:53.509 --> 00:09:57.149 to need to do that. But if this doesn't work 00:09:57.149 --> 00:10:00.610 we do need a Plan B. And that's just not giving 00:10:00.610 --> 00:10:04.289 in. If Plan A works it doesn't mean we can't 00:10:04.289 --> 00:10:07.649 do Plan B as well. We can work with America and 00:10:07.649 --> 00:10:10.610 the EU and Canada. Stalin keeps saying it's not 00:10:10.610 --> 00:10:12.870 about choosing between the US and the EU and 00:10:12.870 --> 00:10:15.370 he's saying that we can have closer ties with 00:10:15.370 --> 00:10:18.690 both and I think he's right. Like I said, Trump 00:10:18.690 --> 00:10:21.330 might force us to choose so, and if he does, 00:10:21.870 --> 00:10:23.970 the answer's obvious to me. We're guaranteed 00:10:23.970 --> 00:10:26.090 to get a worse deal from Trump whatever happens 00:10:26.090 --> 00:10:29.789 now and in the future as well. We've got way 00:10:29.789 --> 00:10:32.149 more potential to grow our trade by working with 00:10:32.149 --> 00:10:35.350 countries who combine companies can actually 00:10:35.350 --> 00:10:39.149 rival America's. And ones that are also committed 00:10:39.149 --> 00:10:44.059 to trade and respect like we always had. We know 00:10:44.059 --> 00:10:46.620 that Canada, UK, France and Germany are already 00:10:46.620 --> 00:10:49.700 talking about how to deal with this. There's 00:10:49.700 --> 00:10:53.299 a real push to avoid getting kind of sucked into 00:10:53.299 --> 00:10:57.799 Trump's bullying, but pretty much everyone including 00:10:57.799 --> 00:11:00.919 the UK wants to avoid a full blown trade war. 00:11:01.480 --> 00:11:03.080 I mean, Trump's been thinking about this for 00:11:03.080 --> 00:11:05.519 decades, so he's not going to stop now. He's 00:11:05.519 --> 00:11:08.220 not going to reverse. He never reverses like 00:11:08.220 --> 00:11:11.500 that. That's why it makes sense. that we're all 00:11:11.500 --> 00:11:13.879 talking about this may even openly and moving 00:11:13.879 --> 00:11:17.240 closer to a like -minded kind of Marford's approach 00:11:17.240 --> 00:11:19.559 to it. Maybe a new tree in the block would promote 00:11:19.559 --> 00:11:22.960 the rules -based system as a better option than 00:11:22.960 --> 00:11:26.440 Trump's protectionism. And if it works more countries 00:11:26.440 --> 00:11:29.139 will want to join and it's a way to stand up 00:11:29.139 --> 00:11:32.039 to Trump without making things worse. It's basically 00:11:32.039 --> 00:11:35.200 saying okay Trump you know you've taken your 00:11:35.200 --> 00:11:37.279 ball but we've got our own ball we're going to 00:11:37.279 --> 00:11:40.779 play our own game. So thanks for listening guys 00:11:40.779 --> 00:11:42.980 and love to hear what you think. Let me know 00:11:42.980 --> 00:11:43.960 in the comments. Cheers.