WEBVTT

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So it's no secret that on the back of the Magnificent

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Seven, all this hype around AI, the stock market

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has gotten pretty darn expensive. Now, of course,

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we can argue that point depending on whether

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you're a growth investor or a value investor.

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But just objectively, we're currently staring

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down the barrel of a Shiller PE of around 35.

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And that's roughly double what the historical

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average is. And what that means is that investors

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right now who are buying into the market are

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willing to pay 35 times the earnings of the stock

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market just to own it. If you rewind back to

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2009, for example, after the GFC, investors that

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were scared out of their wits were only willing

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to fork out 14 times the earnings. Now, there's

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probably an argument to be made that the historical

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average doesn't quite apply to modern times,

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but still having a look at the Shiller P, it

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seems reasonably obvious that 35 is still pretty

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high. In fact, it's the third highest point in

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history. three behind 2021 and 1999. And we all

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know what happened in both of those occasions,

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but this begs the question, if you're a passive

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investor, that being someone who just buys index

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funds, what do you do? Is it a wise idea to still

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be putting lots of money into the market when

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it's clearly quite high? Is it better to reduce

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the amount of money you're regularly investing

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or even stop until the market and the Shiller

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P normalizes a little bit? Well, that's what

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I want to cover in this video. And to help answer

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those questions, I want to introduce this guy.

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He's the grandfather of passive investing, Mr.

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Jack Bogle. And the reason why you might know

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him is because he is the founder of the Vanguard

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Group. It's kind of sad when we talk about great

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investors of history. We talk about Ben Graham

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and Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger and so

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on. But Jack Bogle rarely gets a mention. However,

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truth be told, he is probably responsible for

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more wealth generation around the world than

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any other investor. He sadly passed away in 2019,

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but all throughout his life, he was a huge ambassador

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for simply tracking the market. Market. And what's

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interesting is back in 1997, as the stock market

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was forming into one of its biggest ever bubbles,

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Jack actually gave a speech on investing during

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overvalued markets. And to be honest, it's kind

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of crazy how well that lines up to today's conditions.

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In short, it seems to me that speculation betting

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on higher and higher valuations is in the driver's

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seat. Investment betting on the fundamentals

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of dividend yields and earnings growth is in

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the back seat, probably even in the rumble seat.

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But when speculation drives stock returns in

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the short run, while it drives stocks returns

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in the short run, the crystal clear lesson of

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history, at least for the past 200 years, that

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in the long run, fundamentals drive returns.

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And just like you were seeing in the run -up

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to the tech bubble, we too face a situation today

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where a lot of the stock returns we're seeing

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are based on speculation as opposed to fundamentals.

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I mean... We've seen the Magnificent 7 rise to

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incredible valuations based on a future promise

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that we're unsure will eventuate. We're seeing

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Meta and Google at a PE of 27, Apple at 29, Microsoft

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at 37, Tesla at 45, Amazon at 50, and Nvidia

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at 62. But as Jack notes, in the long run, it's

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always the fundamentals that drive returns. So

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that leaves us with two possible outcomes. A

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world where AI lives up to the hype and earnings

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rise to justify the new valuations or situation

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where AI fails to deliver in which these big

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stocks that support the market. get repriced.

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And funnily enough, that's basically the exact

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point Jack talks about in this next clip. So

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that tension has to be resolved. Let me give

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you two extreme possibilities. One, a market

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drop of 35%. This would lower price earnings

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ratio to a more NOR ratios to a more NOR normal

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level of about 13 times. This is hardly a doomsday

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scenario. Two, we're in a new era in which stock

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returns average 15%. In short, a new era of boom

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times and high valuations that would justify

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today's price levels. Now, of course, it could

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happen, but I wouldn't bet the ranch on it. The

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US stock market, however, seems to be betting

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the ranch on it. It's priced, I think, for the

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best of times and only for the best of times.

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Is this speech actually from 1997? It's actually

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a little bit scary how well all of that lines

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up to what we see today. And I think many investors

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would agree with Jack's statement today. The

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stock market is pricing in the best of times

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and only the best of times. And while the best

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of times may eventuate, Jack certainly wouldn't

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go betting the ranch on it, but with that said,

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that obviously makes it a lot harder psychologically

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to put money into the market right now. Right.

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For example, I am in part a passive investor

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and in part an active investor. But when it comes

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time to add more money into my chosen ETFs or

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my dollar cost averaging plan, I can see I win

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on bike eat down. I always have this grimace

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when the market is at all time highs. There's

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just something about it. It just does. feel great

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sinking a lot of money into your long -term investments

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when you kind of know in the back of your mind

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that the market is pretty expensive. It's kind

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of like paying full price for a bit of furniture

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a few weeks before Black Friday. You feel bad

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paying full price knowing a sale will likely

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come along in the not too distant future. So

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with that set up that leads us to the question

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should we actually be buying our market tracking

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ETFs when the market is at all time highs. Should

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we try and time the market just a little bit

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in this case? Well, this is what Jack had to

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say all the way back in 2001. I don't know anybody

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who has ever been successful in timing the market.

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I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who

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has ever been successful in timing the market.

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So if you want the short answer, no. You should

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not at all deviate from your passive investing

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strategy just because market conditions have

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changed in the same way that you wouldn't sell

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your investments if, all of a sudden, the market

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fell 30 % tomorrow. As Buffett would say, our

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favorite holding period is forever. Forever.

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The more you start messing around with your market

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tracking investments, the higher the probability

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that you'll lose. And that's quite literal. A

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study way back in 2000 studied 66 ,565 households

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during 1991 to 1996 and found that those that

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trade most earned an annual return of 11 .4 %

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while the market returned 17 .9 % annually. The

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truth of the matter is if you start messing around

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with your portfolio you will likely lose out.

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Last month on Lewis Rukeyser, you summed up your

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investment philosophy as buy everything and hold

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it forever. Do you still subscribe to that in,

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in light of what the market has been doing or

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would you unload some things now? No, my theory

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is not subject to the ups and downs, the peregrinations

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of the stock market. It's painful to do, but

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I think the idea of owning the stock market is

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the best approach to equity investing. And perhaps

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I didn't make that thoroughly clear there. And

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while Jack is, of course, a little bit biased

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on the topic, He's not wrong. The idea of dollar

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cost averaging into low cost index funds that

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tracks, say, the S &P 500 and then consistently

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buying them and holding them over a long period

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of time and never selling. has proven to be an

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exceptionally successful strategy over recent

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history. I mean, since 1957, which is the year

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that the S &P 500 adopted its 500 stock structure,

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while that index has returned an average of 10

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% per annum, that's a phenomenal long -term return

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considering what you might get elsewhere in,

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say, savings accounts, gold or bonds. And I will

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say, despite it feeling painful to buy the market

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when it's visibly high, remember there is actually

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an inbuilt mechanism into the dollar cost averaging

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strategy that protects investors against really

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high prices. Remember the dollar cost averaging

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strategy, which is the approach implemented by

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almost all passive investors. is the process

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of buying a fixed dollar amount of shares in

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a low cost market tracking index fund and then

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repeating that purchase at fixed time intervals

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over the course of your investing career. For

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example, you might choose to invest $1 ,000 every

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three months and as the quarters go by, you just

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keep showing up. Well, as I said, this has an

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inbuilt mechanism to protect you when the market

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is high. Say the market crashes and the ETF shares

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you're looking at buying are now $100 each. Well,

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in that case, with your $1 ,000, you'll buy 10

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shares. But then what if the market goes on a

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rampage and the ETF shares are soon worth $200?

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Well, guess what? Now that the market is expensive,

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you're only gonna buy five shares. When the market

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is high, the strategy keeps your buying low,

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and when it's cheap, you're naturally going to

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load up the truck. It's genius. So no, at high

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prices, you should not abandon your tried and

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true passive investing strategy. It's much more

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important to stay in the habit of constantly

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investing, just showing up rain, hail, or shine.

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If you are not a speculative investor, if you're

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a long -term investor and yet there are these

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speculative investors buffeting your returns

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about, what should your reaction be? Should you

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be doing anything differently? I think basically

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you should not be doing anything differently.

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I mean investment is a pretty simple thing. Investment

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is owning businesses or I would say being an

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inveterate index fund person, owning all American

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business, owning every company in America, America

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letting capitalism do its work. Those companies

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will grow at probably around seven percent a

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year. They'll pay you at about a two and a half

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somewhat lower than history, but a two point

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five percent dividend yield. And that should

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over time bail you out of anything that happens

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because of the the wild swings. I mean, if you

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visualize investment as growing in kind of a

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steady line, which it does, and visualize the

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crazy market as being all these jags up and down

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around the steady line upward, upward, always

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upward, I think, then you've got to say, I know

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I'm not smart enough to get out the high. I know

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I'm not smart enough to get back in at the low,

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so I'm just going to stay the course as we would

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say at Vanguard and hang on through all that.

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And importantly, if I'm trying to accumulate

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money for retirement or to buy a home or to educate

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my children, what you want to do is keep investing.

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Keep investing rain, hail, or shine. Passive

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investors are better off if they just keep going

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without messing with their strategy. But there

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is one key to actually putting this theory into

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practice, and this gets glossed over a lot because

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it's not as glamorous as showing a compounding

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chart or talking about how soon you could be

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a millionaire. And the point is finding the right

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plan for you. You. While we know we buy the market

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and we buy it consistently, it's really important

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that you actually nail down your plan into hard

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numbers. What's your current savings rate? What

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percentage are you willing to devote to investing?

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How much money will that mean that you save each

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fortnight? How frequently are you going to invest

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that money? How do you make sure you won't fall

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off the train? As Jack is about to discuss, you

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We need to really nail down an achievable plan

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for you to ensure you can implement this strategy

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over the long term for yourself. But I think

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the idea of buying and holding forever and not

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trying to make adjustments requires that you

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buy. gotten it right in the first place. You

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can only hold tight if you bought right, if you

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will. And that is to say, have an asset allocation

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that has something to do with how many years

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you have to accumulate money, how much resources

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you have at stake, how much income you need,

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and how much courage you have to ride out the

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peregrinations of the market. So you've got to

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take all that into account from that simple statement.

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And I know it sounds boring, but in my experience,

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You really do have to come up with a plan that

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works for you specifically to be able to execute

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the strategy successfully over a long period

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of time. of time. As Jack spoke about in the

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clip, you have to understand how much you can

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comfortably set aside for investing without something

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coming up that could force you to sell your investments.

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You have to know how long you plan to be in the

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market. For example, you wouldn't be dumping

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large sums into an overvalued market if you're

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looking to retire in two years. And then from

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there, you also have to know yourself. How comfortable

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are you having money at stake? If you're someone

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who frequently stresses about your investments

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and has a tendency to make snap decisions, then

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maybe the stock market isn't for you. Maybe you

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might prefer government bonds or perhaps paying

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down your mortgage instead. A lot of times with

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passive investing, the investor is their own

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worst enemy. So I'm bum. Why? Dial from bar cell.

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I'm definitely big on setting up a plan that

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genuinely works for you that isn't stressful

00:14:20.639 --> 00:14:24.039
to continue with. Ultimately, for this strategy

00:14:24.039 --> 00:14:26.659
to work, you need to set aside money that you

00:14:26.659 --> 00:14:29.399
won't need to touch for decades. You need to

00:14:29.399 --> 00:14:32.370
invest often. And you mustn't be tempted into

00:14:32.370 --> 00:14:35.190
messing around with your portfolio. So you need

00:14:35.190 --> 00:14:38.090
to understand what amount you can easily set

00:14:38.090 --> 00:14:41.070
aside, what investing schedule you can stick

00:14:41.070 --> 00:14:44.450
to. And you need to mentally commit to the long

00:14:44.450 --> 00:14:47.529
term to ensure you don't end up as just another

00:14:47.529 --> 00:14:51.500
failed investor. Remember that stat from before.

00:14:51.940 --> 00:14:54.379
The study showed the more you mess around with

00:14:54.379 --> 00:14:56.600
your investments, the more likely you are to

00:14:56.600 --> 00:14:59.240
lose. But if you're relatively young, if you

00:14:59.240 --> 00:15:01.820
are investing money that you don't need, and

00:15:01.820 --> 00:15:04.200
you're properly spread across the market through

00:15:04.200 --> 00:15:06.620
something like a market tracking index fund,

00:15:06.940 --> 00:15:09.679
then you can be reasonably confident, as Jack

00:15:09.679 --> 00:15:12.299
says, that you've bought right. So that's the

00:15:12.299 --> 00:15:14.700
deal with index funds when the market is at all

00:15:14.700 --> 00:15:16.980
time highs. Now, if you're interested in getting

00:15:16.980 --> 00:15:19.620
the full breakdown and simple, step -by -step

00:15:19.620 --> 00:15:22.720
manner, definitely check out Stock Market Investing

00:15:22.720 --> 00:15:25.840
for Beginners over on New Money Education. That

00:15:25.840 --> 00:15:28.139
is a full, in -depth course that will get you

00:15:28.139 --> 00:15:30.759
up to speed on the passive investing strategy,

00:15:31.100 --> 00:15:34.200
no matter where you are in the world. So, big

00:15:34.200 --> 00:15:36.059
thanks to everyone as well who has supported

00:15:36.059 --> 00:15:38.720
the courses too, as they are the main way that

00:15:38.720 --> 00:15:41.159
we fund this YouTube channel. But apart from

00:15:41.159 --> 00:15:43.149
that, Please do leave a like if you enjoyed the

00:15:43.149 --> 00:15:45.190
video guys, subscribe if you've made it this

00:15:45.190 --> 00:15:46.769
far and you'd like to see more videos similar

00:15:46.769 --> 00:15:48.750
to this and I'll see you guys in the next one.

00:15:49.070 --> 00:15:51.090
This is Higanchi, see you block giants.
