1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:05,000 So I'm going to have a look at what they experts are saying for the markets in 2025. 2 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:11,000 I'll have a look at what they said about the markets in 2024 this time last year. 3 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:16,000 And let's give us some context on how accurate these experts actually are. 4 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:24,000 I'll finish off with my thoughts on what this means for us all as investors and specifically as pension investors. 5 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:31,000 So here's the summary of the expert predictions and tips for position yourself for 2025 and beyond. 6 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,000 And we'll start with GP Morgan Chase. 7 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:39,000 And they're optimistic expecting continued growth globally. 8 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:46,000 He also believed that the outlook for treasuries is actually varied and they project that the S&P 500 will reach 9 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:51,000 6,500 by the end of 2025. 10 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:58,000 They say that American exceptionalism will support the rest of that and bolstered US risk assets. 11 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:03,000 Now let's talk about American exceptionalism. 12 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,000 This has been a hot topic lately. 13 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,000 It's easy to see why really. 14 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:15,000 The US economy and markets have had an incredible run over the past decade. 15 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:24,000 I mean, since 2010 the S&P 500 has delivered a whopping 590% return. 16 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:33,000 And that far outpaced the 150% from the MSCI or up in the 120% from the 4200. 17 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:36,000 And it's not just a stock market that's been impressive. 18 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:44,000 High-linked shraiths on bonds are also attracted capital to from regions with lower or even negative interest. 19 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:49,000 And this is put upward pressure on the dollar's value. 20 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:57,000 Now many investors are heavily invested in US assets, even though the valuations are now really 21 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:58,000 seeing levels. 22 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,000 They are exceptional. 23 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:07,000 But what we'll listen to in the next decade is corporate America really that much better than corporate 24 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:14,000 or corporate UK. 25 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:19,000 It's true that US companies have seen some fantastic growth in it. 26 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:26,000 With S&P 500 company earnings per share rise in 20090% since 2010 compared to 60% for the MSCI or your 27 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:32,000 those facial difficulties, particularly in innovation and their ability to scale companies. 28 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:39,000 However, there are some reasons to question this their just better narrative that supports 29 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:42,000 and overweight position in US stocks. 30 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,000 I'll give you my top four reasons. 31 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:51,000 Firstly, if US companies are more profitable or faster growing and marketer of fissions, 32 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,000 that should already be reflected in the price. 33 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,000 And shouldn't really create further access returns going forward. 34 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:03,000 Secondly, the US is also an exceptional, less than compelling ways. 35 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:07,000 A government debt has exploded during this period about performance. 36 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:16,000 Far more than your, and since 2010, the US has accrued $21 trillion worth of debt. 37 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:22,000 Boosting spending and corporate earnings, but they can't go on with peace and his forever. 38 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:27,000 Thirdly, the expansion of profit margins in the US is unlikely to continue. 39 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:33,000 Corporate America has done a great job of grabbing a large swicety in-compye. 40 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:37,000 But workers are going to demand higher pay of this continues. 41 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,000 And this could lead to industrial action, 42 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:46,000 boldly, technology stocks are played a significant role in driving this performance. 43 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:53,000 The rise in US tech stocks accounts for 40% of the S&P 500 return since 2010. 44 00:03:53,000 --> 00:04:05,000 And we need excitement about AI and other technologies has pushed the valuation of the top US companies to 30 times their expected earnings for the coming year. 45 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:17,000 And this compares to 14 times for NSCI or this tech valuation premium will inevitably close either because the non-tech company valuation dries, 46 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:21,000 or tech companies will struggle to make expected returns and investments. 47 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:31,000 Historically, the market has overestimated the future returns of the innovators and it's underestimated to be turned of the adapters. 48 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:43,000 Now, let's think of telecoms where the returns on telecoms happen been nearly as good as the underlying platforms that actually use the telecoms. 49 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:56,000 So given the US concentration in tech stocks, a rotation of performance away from tech is likely to coincide with a rotation in geographical stock performance. 50 00:04:56,000 --> 00:05:04,000 So as capital flows to new opportunities elsewhere, this could also weaken the dollar. 51 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:09,000 To be clear, I'm not suggesting the US is about to experience a decade of performance. 52 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:23,000 However, I will question some of the underpinnings of this American exceptionalism and because just about being overvalued based on the last 10 years worth of growth. 53 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:32,000 I mean, investors who haven't rebalanced will naturally find themselves with a pretty large overweight in their US holdings currently. 54 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:45,000 If you allocated 50% of your wealth US stocks in 2010 and the other half to the rest of the world, that is now, we call 75% weighted to the US. 55 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:48,000 It's very least it's time for some rebounding. 56 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:53,000 So let's get back to those expert predictions we started with. 57 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,000 Next, I want to talk about gold and Saxon. 58 00:05:56,000 --> 00:06:04,000 These are also pretty optimistic and they're forecasting a 10% gain for the S&P 525. 59 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:13,000 They expect 5% revenue growth, 2.5% real GDP growth and 2.4% inflation. 60 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:17,000 They think that tariffs and tax cuts are going to balance each other out. 61 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,000 Next, we'll talk about Dutch-Stone Investment. 62 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:30,000 To suggest that growth stocks may on the perform in 2025, Jews are current high valuations paired with slower-end growth. 63 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:38,000 They notice that these stocks may need to pause and allow an insight actually align with their valuations. 64 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:49,000 I mean, they also point out that the concentration of value within stock indices with a few medicat companies comprise in much of their value. 65 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:55,000 A pullback in these companies could significantly impact the index. 66 00:06:55,000 --> 00:07:07,000 Next, we'll look at Vanguard and they've taken a slightly different approach and they're predicted 2.1% GDP growth, 2.5% correlation for 2025. 67 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:11,000 They actually see bonds as a good risk reward option. 68 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:20,000 While the US returns out of our course, the range of outcomes is broad and valuations aren't reliable. 69 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:33,000 There was a survey of 15 Wall Street firms and overall they resulted in an average S&P 500 projection of 6,600 by the end of 2025. 70 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:37,000 This represented gain of approximately 9% from recent levels. 71 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:47,000 The lowest rejection came from UBS and they expected the S&P 500 to conclude about 6,400, and increase it just 5%. 72 00:07:47,000 --> 00:08:00,000 I was Schwab consider the Outlook for US markets to be challenging and predictions are going to really uncertain about what 2025 will bring. 73 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:13,000 They come in on the Trump administration's proposals which sparked intense debate and the uncertainty around them will impact markets and doubts along with various associated factors. 74 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:21,000 That really makes it difficult to forecast the impact on both domestic and global conditions. 75 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:27,000 However Schwab, the organolids at the current economy, does appear strong in healthy. 76 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:36,000 I mean, well, generally optimistic, they emphasise that attention to turn them up as we know, in practical. 77 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:43,000 Instead, use the markets to provide guidance and generally a sense of direction really. 78 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:48,000 So how do you make sense of all these statistics and numbers and forecasts? 79 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:54,000 Well, you can see that just amongst this limited group of examples, there are differences of opinion. 80 00:08:54,000 --> 00:09:04,000 There are, interestingly, some similarities that most of these experts seem to be predicted that the S&P 500 will advance 9% or 10% in the coming year. 81 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:13,000 Is that an offer you? It's not expected over the last two years with more than 20% return each year. 82 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:28,000 But there's a perfectly good chance that there's going to be wrong. I mean, one explanation for the similarities might be that these firms don't want you to go on a limb. They don't want to be the obvol, at least if they get it wrong, everyone else has got it wrong as well. 83 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:33,000 So that's considered, for example, all wrong predictions from a year ago. 84 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:51,000 So one third, expected the S&P 500 worse crash since 2008, and they begin in a recession. Just for those who haven't been keeping up, the S&P 500 result 26% this year is a days and it's been an every recession. 85 00:09:51,000 --> 00:10:03,000 JPMorgan said that equities are now richly valued with volatility near historical lows while geopolitical and political risks remain elevated. 86 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:12,000 And we expect, lacklust the global earnings, growth with downside for equities from the level, well, that clearly hasn't happened to you there. 87 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:26,000 And Morgan Stanley expected a generally flat stock market for 20 to 24, which again was way out. So we're investors, we like to invest our pensions, what should we do? 88 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:44,000 Well, if you're not comfortable having as much money invested in stocks as you do now, that's the decision I'm in, then, you know, what I'm going to do is I'm going to consider moving sort of my money out of equities in 2025. 89 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:58,000 I understand that the stock market is very volatile and the low as be corrections and crashes, but the markets, as always gone on to recover from everyone of these drops. 90 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:17,000 It goes on to set new highs. This is why I only want to invest in stocks with my long term money money that I won't be using for the next five, maybe 10 years. I mean, for the long term investments for my money, it's hard to beat the wealth builder potential of the stock market. 91 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:31,000 It's where my long-time money is going to live. It's just always performed better than other investment types. We'd have to chase the market over price growth stocks to build your wealth. 92 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:46,000 A simple index fund such as one that tracks the S and B5 100, maybe the 42 50 or some good world indices, cheap good world indices passive investments, you know, they're great. 93 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:53,000 The stock market has delivered double digit gains for multiple years in a row and this may continue. 94 00:11:53,000 --> 00:12:06,000 But in anticipation of an eventual pullback and I'm going to keep some of my portfolio in cash, specifically in money markets, so that, you know, I can pound on any opportunities that materialize. 95 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:18,000 And then whenever I mention this in the comments, people just tell you how to take your time in the market, and you tell them not to take the market, but you do it yourself. 96 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:22,000 Don't fret too much about what the market will do in 2025. Instead, focus on the decade ahead. 97 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:44,000 If you're saving an investment for a retirement saying 2045, how the market performs in 2025, it'll be a blip. Don't worry about it. However, if you are retiring in an extra few years, the performance of the stock market in 2025 will be very, very important to you. 98 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:59,000 On this channel, I'll be keeping up with all of these news and posting it as soon as it appears. So, you know, if you want to subscribe to the channel, then I'll do my best to get any important information filtered and brought to you as quickly as a can. 99 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:12,000 Now listen, good luck for 2025. I think we're all going to need it, but don't worry or so, and invest for the long term indices are great as someone once wise said in Dexon Chill. 100 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:19,000 Thank you.