WEBVTT

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Hey, what's up, Toby? Hey, buddy. Happy Friday.

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Yeah, we made it through another one. We did

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indeed. We've made it to year two of the Processed

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It podcast. Oh, man. We're only picking up steam,

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brother. Look out. The process that I want to

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talk about today is the process in which the

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United States government shuts down. I feel like

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it's timely. That is timely as we sit here in

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the autumn of 2025. I think we're about a week

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down into the current, a week into the current

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shutdown. Talking about the process, you think

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there's a formal protocol by which we shut down

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the government? You think they just turn off

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the lights and turn off everybody's key cards

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for the following Monday? I don't, I mean, how

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do you, you turn off the money? Remaking machine.

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It's funny. So on this topic, and then I want

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to hear where you were going with it, but I recently

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read something that said the only reason the

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last shutdown was arrested at 35 days was because

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air traffic controllers finally said enough.

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Oh, yeah. I forgot about that. It just started

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calling in sick. And I thought, well, I'm a...

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I know who to throw my support behind. If that's

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how we get stuff, get people back to the table

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and move things forward, you know, support your

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local air traffic controller. Well, they weren't

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they weren't being paid, right? No. Yeah. Like

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so many different, you know, I think everybody

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has a spouse, somebody in their home or in their

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family or in their close friend network that's

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involved with the federal government. So many

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roles people are like, oh, yeah, it's okay. We'll

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catch up on the back end. Just work for free

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for now. Yeah, you know Okay Well, what's what's

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interesting about this is it's Or at least where

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I come at it is like, how do you talk critically

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about it? Like how do you talk to both sides?

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So that yeah, there can be at least a conversation

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And what what? You know, I think I told you right

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before the podcast started, I'd been thinking

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about this little acronym that I came up, which,

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you know, yeah, maybe the first and last time

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it's ever used in history, but it's it's pump,

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right, which is process. Yeah. The unintended

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consequences. Money, like, where does the money

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go and where does the power go? And it's an,

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you know, it's an interesting, you know, it's

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interesting to just a framework to look at it

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from multiple sides. Yeah, talk me about talk

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to me about this acronym pump for a second and

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then let's go back to the federal shut down Yeah,

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so I see the moving parts. Yep. How are you?

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How are you? Thinking about the relationship

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between process Unintended consequences money

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and power. I mean I could string those together

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in a variety of ways I'm just here. I think they're

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talking points like it just allows you to think

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about it in ways that you don't that allows you

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to slow down and not just dig into your confirmation

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bias. Because whether you believe it's the left

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or the right doing something, the reality is

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it's a little bit more complex. For sure. Because

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if you're a senator in a blue state or a senator

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in a red state, the process by which turning

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the government on or off means that you account

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for the money and the power. Because if you go

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against your base, you're against the money in

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your next election, and you've got against your

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power that you have, which is your base. And

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so it's a little bit more simple than like, oh,

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we'll just turn it on. I think you make a really

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good point that in the sound bite world we live

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in, where everybody's listening to highly filtered

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content, whether it's streaming services or social

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media. All been, it's all been, uh, algo to pieces.

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So we only hear what we want to hear. Yeah. Um,

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but yeah, the unintended consequences are, are

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enormous. And so I would put you at the end.

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I would put the, you, the unintended consequences

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at the end, because then you would have to think

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about it, but then it doesn't spell word. And

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then becomes who you're looking at is strange.

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But it is interesting as we're thinking about

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the government, like, you know, what processes

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are in play, right? They've got to basically

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increase the money supply or the ability to take

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on more debt, which we have been really good

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at that over the last couple decades. Yeah. When

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you reduce income and increase outflow, the only

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way you fill that hole is debt. It doesn't matter

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whether you're a single household or a nation.

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Yeah. Yeah. Well, what's interesting, what's

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interesting is everybody's like, well, I don't

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want taxes. You're like, no, we should just do

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smart taxes. Well, I mean, so back to your point

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about about process, money, power and unintended

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consequences. When you say smart taxes, I'm curious,

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what does that mean to you? We, I believe for

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the most part, when we cut tax. Yeah. We basically

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are going away from this, from a baseline that

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no first world country has ever been able to

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get away from. Like there's a baseline of infrastructure

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and support that your people want. And, and,

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you know, you might be able to go up or down

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2%, but the reality is, is like, there's not

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a whole lot of movement and everybody's like,

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well, I want to cut taxes. And if you give them

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the actual exercise of cutting taxes and where

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to do it, not so easy. Yeah. My favorite is I

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want things to be nice like they were back in

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the 50s and 60s. And single income, you can afford

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a home, you can afford a vehicle. You can live

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in a safe place and even take a family vacation.

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But that kind of Halcyon era that predated a

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lot of us, parents grew up in, also had one of

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our highest tax bases. You're in the U .S., and

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so you're absolutely right. It's a devil's task

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to balance all the competing interests and still

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provide the tax base that we all need. I guess

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you're saying we can't have our cake and eat

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it too. Correct. Which is disappointing, Chris.

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Correct. And also, taxing the little guy isn't

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going to add up too much. That's the funny thing.

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Taking money away from the tax, from the little

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guy, isn't going to add much. No. Unless you

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grew up through Medicaid. Yeah. If we want to

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talk about untouchable topics, let's just get

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into that retirement focused budget and the military

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and see where that lands us. Well, that's what

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I found. That's what I find really funny about,

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you know, people and, you know, the whole Doge

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thing, which was like, Hey, we're going to go

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and do a thing. And you're like, all right, I'm

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a data nerd. And you want to find, if you want

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to find where you can go grab the money, take

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your budget, sort by line item, highest to smallest,

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start at the top. And that's where the money

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is. And what we as humans often do is we want

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to see, we want to notice the scene. And so it's

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the many, many whiplashy things. And you're like,

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yeah, that's like such a small, infinitesimal,

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whatever that word is, like it's just so small

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in comparison to the budget because we don't

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do numbers well. No, it's, you know, the human

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condition, I think even if we step back and take

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it on a super personal level. It's like, I want

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to feel better. I want to be more fit. I want

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to be more trim. But I don't want to, you know,

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sleep with a CPAP on my face, even though I stopped

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breathing all night. And I don't want to eat

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healthy food because McDonald's is so tasty and

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easy and exercise when I can binge watch Netflix.

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Yeah. And, you know, to your point, all of those

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like high impact. High -cost areas are well known

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But if we take those off the table now, we're

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splitting hairs over should I have more? Nuts

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and raisins in my trail mix, you know, you know

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sure knock yourself out Yeah for sure. All right,

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what's what are the what's the unintended consequences

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of shutting the government down? Yeah, well so

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thus far You know in my house. I haven't really

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felt it. Yeah but I'm not drawing a a federal

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wage and I'm not dependent on services. I'm the

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boy. It feels like a tsunami of consequences.

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Intentional and unintentional, you know? So,

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the most frightening, I think, around the unintentional

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goes back to that same interest group that we

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were just talking about, which are those folks

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that put in their decades of work. now are finally

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tapping into the benefits that they were promised,

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you know, retirees. What does this mean for social

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security checks? I know personally, you know,

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what does it mean for Medicare and getting those

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payments out to all of our care providers? I

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don't know. Well, one of the major unintended

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consequences, I think, is interesting with, you

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know, the Affordable Affordable Health Care Act,

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the Obamacare. Basically, as of this this month,

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a loss, or as of starting next month, it basically

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will lose all those subsidies. And then, you

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know, healthcare goes up. And I don't know the

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specifics there, so I'm just kind of making stuff

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up. So you should fact check me, Toby. You should,

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you should go look that up. But like, it's interesting,

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right? So, you know, the other thing that I find

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fascinating is the federal government's pretty

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big everywhere, and we're in a very large country,

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and A lot of rural people are going to be impacted.

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And at some point you switch who you're blaming,

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then work. Well, and that's, I think if we step

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back for a second, you know, at the beginning,

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you spoke to a notion of complexity. And I think

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when we talk about a machine as large and the

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labor force that it takes to run the federal

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government as a machine. That's a lot of complex

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process. There's lots of handoffs and decisions

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and protocols. And it's one thing to retire out

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some percentage of a workforce every year. It's

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totally different when everybody goes home. Or

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people are asked to work for free and without

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any certainty about what comes back next when...

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Half the folks they were sitting with a year

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ago have been challenged either quit or the consequences.

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So, I don't know. I mean, is it unintended consequences?

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Do you think there's intended consequences in

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this? Well, I think there absolutely is. I do

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think both sides have basically put their stakes

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in the ground of what they think the intention

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is going to be. And neither side is going to

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be exactly right. Or though lucky or wrong is

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how I see it. A little sad. Yeah. There's only

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one reason why you're right. It's always lucky.

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I think it's interesting that when well -defined

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processes or protocols are ignored, they've usually

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become well -defined for a reason. Yep. And it's

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just like payment processing inside of a company

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or inventory management. All these business processes,

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there's a reason why we tend to do them a certain

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way and that we see them done the same way across

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companies and across industries. And it's just

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that the risks are enormous. What could be worse

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than accidentally forgetting to pay your frontline

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labor force? And all of a sudden you've debilitated

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them because... Those are often the lowest paid

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folks and the ones that are most at risk are

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disrupted, you know? Yeah, watch your business

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collapse overnight. Well, what's interesting

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is like some of these big businesses, like they

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can be taken down in a flash, like with a little

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thing. So it's been probably a couple of years

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ago, but Microsoft forgot to pay one of their

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SSL certs, which is literally like... $12 a year

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or something like that, right? Yeah, basically

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when that certificate goes down your SSL don't

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work anymore And so you basically have this,

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you know close to trillion dollar company. That's

00:13:45.360 --> 00:13:50.159
just like want law Is it? Someone forgot to put

00:13:50.159 --> 00:13:54.460
a backup payment like a credit card. So I mean,

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but like I wonder I wonder if that that will

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that could be the unintended consequence of where

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you're teetering on such a fine line politically

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where the house of cards collapses. To your point

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about power and money being the other moving

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parts in this, I think anytime we have persistent

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disagreements or we have people that are anchored

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so far apart with no room to negotiate, we should

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be asking, what are the incentives for taking

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such a hard perspective? And I think that there's

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probably a frightening amount of truth, regardless

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of any direction you point, that there's money

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and power that are dictating those. And it's

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not always the stakeholders. It's interesting

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too, even as we talk about just the money part

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here, if you go macro, you stop paying the federal

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workers, that's really easy. That's an easy thing

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to know, right? It would roll up to the greater

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economy in which that money is flowing less,

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which would flow up and up and up, and it would

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get too complex for us to think about. But then

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if you go at the government level, they've got

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to basically release more funds so that they

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can take on more debt. And to be honest, I talk

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about that, but I don't even understand how that

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works. Money supply was a really painful class

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that I have vague recollections from my undergrad

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in. And you're right, it's a super complicated

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process. And you know, let's say we pump money

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or take on more debt or whatever, right, in which

00:15:46.940 --> 00:15:49.179
we've got to pay, right? Someone's got to pay

00:15:49.179 --> 00:15:52.080
the piper, right? And that means it either comes

00:15:52.080 --> 00:15:54.690
out of the budget or comes comes through inflation,

00:15:55.009 --> 00:15:57.850
like the Piper is going to be paid. Like that's,

00:15:57.850 --> 00:16:03.250
that's how it works. Yeah. Well, I think, uh,

00:16:03.549 --> 00:16:06.490
you know, the best case for us would be to have

00:16:06.490 --> 00:16:08.730
folks running this country that understand the

00:16:08.730 --> 00:16:12.450
casino model, right? Cause the house always wins

00:16:12.450 --> 00:16:16.009
in theory. And I'm sure there's somebody out

00:16:16.009 --> 00:16:19.129
there that's bankrupt a casino, but in general,

00:16:19.610 --> 00:16:24.360
most folks can. If we can't find those folks

00:16:24.360 --> 00:16:27.019
I'm sure there's somebody else that can help

00:16:27.019 --> 00:16:28.700
us figure out how to run this damn thing because

00:16:28.700 --> 00:16:31.039
there's to my way of thinking there's there's

00:16:31.039 --> 00:16:34.299
really no reason why as Prosperous a country

00:16:34.299 --> 00:16:37.419
as we have with all the reasons deserve talent

00:16:37.419 --> 00:16:40.919
That are both homegrown and that we've traditionally

00:16:40.919 --> 00:16:44.600
brought in to our economy. There's no reason

00:16:44.600 --> 00:16:48.279
why We can't balance a budget. I think it's it's

00:16:48.279 --> 00:16:51.460
simple reluctance. Yeah, you know You can't drive

00:16:51.460 --> 00:16:54.360
an ass car and live in a mansion and only want

00:16:54.360 --> 00:16:57.200
to work three hours a day at Circle K and still

00:16:57.200 --> 00:16:59.659
have it all, you know, pens about. How long has

00:16:59.659 --> 00:17:04.500
it been since we've had a surplus? Was it like...

00:17:04.500 --> 00:17:09.619
I think the last surplus was Clinton's era. That's

00:17:09.619 --> 00:17:11.420
what I was thinking. Where there might have been

00:17:11.420 --> 00:17:15.619
one year with Obama, but... Yeah, balanced budgets

00:17:15.619 --> 00:17:21.299
tricky. It's... Yeah, it's hard. It is. It is.

00:17:21.460 --> 00:17:23.160
Well, I guess that the other question I would

00:17:23.160 --> 00:17:25.539
ask is like, when was the last time that we ran

00:17:25.539 --> 00:17:30.680
a surplus and had our needs met? And that probably

00:17:30.680 --> 00:17:37.180
predates you and I by some good measure. Some

00:17:37.180 --> 00:17:41.559
post -World War II kind of thing. So Chris, I

00:17:41.559 --> 00:17:44.480
think I like your acronym, even if it's Pum -Poo.

00:17:48.559 --> 00:17:51.500
We'll see if Pum -Poo takes off. It's more unique.

00:17:52.299 --> 00:17:54.839
But I like that idea of pump. Our processes,

00:17:54.980 --> 00:17:57.059
if they're not working, there's an easy way to

00:17:57.059 --> 00:17:59.819
understand it. And it could be that we're just

00:17:59.819 --> 00:18:03.759
living under the consequences, and we find ourselves

00:18:03.759 --> 00:18:06.279
signed up for painful experiences that we didn't

00:18:06.279 --> 00:18:09.819
know were coming our way. For sure. It's really

00:18:09.819 --> 00:18:12.200
hard to restart a process, too, once you've neglected

00:18:12.200 --> 00:18:15.480
it. I think about any piece of machinery, you

00:18:15.480 --> 00:18:17.660
can't leave it out in the rain for years than

00:18:17.660 --> 00:18:19.380
expect it to magically work again. I mean, if

00:18:19.380 --> 00:18:21.400
you go back to just the process of our government,

00:18:21.480 --> 00:18:25.279
which you've got, you know, the, you know, the

00:18:25.279 --> 00:18:27.400
executive, the legislative and the judicial,

00:18:27.819 --> 00:18:30.019
I was listening to something on McCarthyism,

00:18:30.099 --> 00:18:33.480
you know, back, back after World War II and,

00:18:33.640 --> 00:18:35.880
you know, talking about how crazy it was and

00:18:35.880 --> 00:18:39.019
how the courts, you know, back then kind of bent

00:18:39.019 --> 00:18:41.420
towards McCarthyism and then finally rebounded.

00:18:41.420 --> 00:18:44.269
And that's, I'm like, Hey, look, History repeats

00:18:44.269 --> 00:18:47.890
itself. Funny how that works. But it is interesting

00:18:47.890 --> 00:18:52.849
that we have our process of our legislative part

00:18:52.849 --> 00:18:55.630
of the government. It's what, a two year cycle

00:18:55.630 --> 00:18:59.309
for congressmen and then a six year for the Senate?

00:18:59.529 --> 00:19:05.029
You're like, I mean, I've started new jobs before

00:19:05.029 --> 00:19:08.150
and it takes a good year and a half to kind of

00:19:08.150 --> 00:19:12.029
get your bearings oftentimes. And I'm not having

00:19:12.029 --> 00:19:14.049
to deal with... you know, who are the sharks

00:19:14.049 --> 00:19:17.210
and who are the minnows and who can you play

00:19:17.210 --> 00:19:18.970
with and who can you not play with in the halls

00:19:18.970 --> 00:19:22.329
of Congress or Senate? And then the Senate's

00:19:22.329 --> 00:19:24.569
crazy because it's all about how long you can

00:19:24.569 --> 00:19:29.809
stay there. Yeah. Well, which is why the average

00:19:29.809 --> 00:19:33.230
age of our elected officials is somewhere between

00:19:33.230 --> 00:19:38.210
70 and dead. Yeah. You know, it is a strange,

00:19:38.250 --> 00:19:40.109
it's a strange world. I had a friend point out

00:19:40.109 --> 00:19:45.009
that That Gen Xers may end up being that one

00:19:45.009 --> 00:19:47.650
generation that moves through without ever seeing

00:19:47.650 --> 00:19:50.529
Oh, yeah, there is like it in their elected officials,

00:19:50.529 --> 00:19:56.190
and I think that's largely been true You know,

00:19:56.829 --> 00:19:59.029
especially in in love or hate them there's all

00:19:59.029 --> 00:20:03.349
kinds of Electeds that continue well beyond we

00:20:03.349 --> 00:20:08.569
might otherwise deem our age So it is an interesting

00:20:08.569 --> 00:20:12.000
machine I'll be interested to see how we get

00:20:12.000 --> 00:20:15.759
this thing oiled up and running again. Not just

00:20:15.759 --> 00:20:18.480
the parts that we're operating before the shutdown,

00:20:18.859 --> 00:20:21.440
but some of the parts that have been long neglected.

00:20:21.599 --> 00:20:24.859
Maybe that pendulum will swing back towards center

00:20:24.859 --> 00:20:27.259
here soon. Well, and the other thing that I think

00:20:27.259 --> 00:20:30.920
is missing in government is just a flat out,

00:20:30.920 --> 00:20:34.680
like a vision, like a long -term vision. Like

00:20:34.680 --> 00:20:38.799
it just seems, anyway, like without that alignment,

00:20:39.509 --> 00:20:42.390
Yeah, basically have a bunch of fractured folks

00:20:42.390 --> 00:20:46.049
trying to do what they need to do to get reelected

00:20:46.049 --> 00:20:51.150
Yeah, I mean hey bring it back, you know thing

00:20:51.150 --> 00:20:54.930
about the government as an organization Every

00:20:54.930 --> 00:20:57.089
other organization has to have a shared mission

00:20:57.089 --> 00:20:59.829
and I don't quite know what our collective mission

00:20:59.829 --> 00:21:02.369
is right now Yeah, so it's hard to get aligned

00:21:02.369 --> 00:21:05.029
and you lose you live really close to that war

00:21:05.029 --> 00:21:10.140
zone war -torn City, Portland. I mean There's

00:21:10.140 --> 00:21:13.279
probably going to be ones of people out there.

00:21:13.880 --> 00:21:16.440
People on the podcast can't see me in my flying

00:21:16.440 --> 00:21:21.240
black jacket. You can't hardly go out for coffee

00:21:21.240 --> 00:21:24.640
without leaves falling on you right now. Look

00:21:24.640 --> 00:21:27.960
out for those pumpkin spice lattes. I mean, out

00:21:27.960 --> 00:21:29.980
of control. You probably have maple syrup or

00:21:29.980 --> 00:21:33.660
something on your waffles. It's really out of

00:21:33.660 --> 00:21:36.500
hand. Yeah. Those lime bikes are everywhere.

00:21:38.160 --> 00:21:41.059
Next. That's awesome, man. Well, thanks for meeting

00:21:41.059 --> 00:21:44.799
again. Off to New York today. It should be a

00:21:44.799 --> 00:21:47.279
good one. Yeah. Cheers to year two. Here we go,

00:21:47.680 --> 00:21:48.279
man. Talk to you later.
