WEBVTT

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Hey, what's up, Toby? We made it another week.

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Hey, happy Friday. I know. We made it. All right.

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So we're just going to go right into it today.

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Let's do it. So I have a question. OK. How many

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people need to be in a room before there's a

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50 % chance, a coin flip, that two of them share

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a birthday? 30 days in a month 12 months in a

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year That gets to be a really big number. So

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that's clearly wrong. Otherwise, this wouldn't

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be a trick question, right? You see how I'm trying

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to pull it apart. Oh I mean I think about it

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for myself I so rarely encounter people that

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have my own birth that share a birthday with

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me that I'm inclined to think the number has

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to be you know, 30 ish maybe even 45 before I

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arrive at a matching but I have a hunch you're

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gonna tell me I'm wrong. I'm probably coming

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at this question wrong. You're totally wrong,

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Toby. I wouldn't have asked a question if you

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would have got it right. How many? The answer's

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23. 23, and is that for me to find somebody in

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the room with a matching birthday or there's

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a 50 % chance that I will share a birthday? 50

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% chance that two people in the room will share

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the same birthday. Boy, how narcissistic is that

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of me that I'm imagining that I would be one

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of the two, right? I believe... you get to like

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an over a 90 % chance at about 40 people. OK.

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OK. Or something like that. But the number's

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smaller. And the reason we're talking about this,

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this is not the birthday podcast. This is the

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podcast. But it was my birthday recently last

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month. Anyway. It was. Happy belated birthday,

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by the way. It comes down to the challenge of

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the interdependencies. and the impact of those

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number of people. So like what's funny is like

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we think that intuitively we think that if there

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is to be a 50 % match that this number is going

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to be higher. It actually is smaller just because

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of raw statistics because when you walk into

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the room that one person doesn't match with like

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when one person walks into the room they match

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with that one person. Then when two people walk

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walk into the room, they match with two people.

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And when the third person - Potentially agree,

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yeah. Yeah, they potentially match. And so basically

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it creates this thing. And I think we have the

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reverse problem oftentimes in business, which

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is pull in not the appropriate amount of people.

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Because of that, one person comes in, two people,

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it's interaction between two. Three then you've

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got three links for you know Everybody's linking

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with each other and I think that is a that is

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definitely an area that can have process step

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Well, let me step back for a second. So sure

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this birthday paradox That the number is smaller

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than we expect to be able to find a match between

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two items This feels this feels like it would

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hold true when we're doing product market fit

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And so if I have a new solution versus I have

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five solutions taking to market, and how many

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am I trying to match them against different customer

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segments or use cases, the more numbers I have,

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it probably isn't the full compounded number,

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right? The 25 to the nth or whatever the calculation

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is. My high school math teachers would slap me,

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because I'm sure that's where we first encountered

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that. But it would be a much smaller number.

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But I think what you're touching on is that we

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often follow that same line of logic where more

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is better when, in fact, when we're building

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teams or trying to arrive consensus rather than

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matching. Yeah. Consensus is you're suggesting

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maybe even a smaller number is better. Yeah.

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Why do you think that is? I mean, I understand

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intuitively I get there, but I love that you

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think about these things usually before we jump

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on a call on a Friday. So unpack it. I think,

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I think it's because we're, we're, we need community.

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We're territorial. So like the bigger something

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is, the more people we pull in. Which, you know,

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I think, I think, and I've also been noticing

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just in my, in my meetings, you know, before,

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before COVID, it was two or three of us in a,

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in a room. Imagine that talking face to face

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with, you know, reading those non latent verbal

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cues of like, hey, you dumb ass, that was something

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stupid, which you can't say out loud, otherwise

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you go and talk to HR. But now I'm just seeing

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more and more, just the larger number of people

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in meetings. Because it's so much easier just

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to add somebody to a Zoom or a Teams meeting

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versus coordinating their logistics of where

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they're physically at. Is that why you think

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it's happening? I don't know. That would be,

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I guess I'm expressing an intuitive assumption.

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It's a really good call out. It's just easy to

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just interrupt someone's day. It's funny that

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you say that. Someone was talking about texting

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being what a telephone call was historically,

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meaning when we grew up, the telephones were

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on the wall. Imagine that. That was a thing.

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Um, indeed, you know, the big old kids will never

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understand the rotary phones where it's like,

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gosh, dang it. I don't want to have dial a nine

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because it just takes forever. We can't be friends.

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You have too many nines in your phone. Yeah,

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we do. We digress. Yes. But, but, but it's interesting

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that we basically have injected our lives with

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distractions and pulling people into something.

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has almost become a bad habit of bad process.

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Based on convenience. Yeah. I do know the best

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way to kill an otherwise healthy initiative is

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to basically send it into that endless cycle

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with let's add one more person and we have one

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more stakeholder and now we have to bring them

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up to speed and everybody's opinions are equal.

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Feel like I feel like process by committee specifically

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designed by committee is a certainty to fail.

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Oh, yeah, right and so It's it's interesting

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that you raised that question because I'm hearing

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you say too that even in a physical meeting Somebody

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will step out and say hey Bob. Can you join us

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in the conference room? When Bob might not have

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traditionally been necessary to arrive at a decision

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or move forward in the past That's really interesting

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you think that people are less confident Or that

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the complexity has increased and therefore we

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need additional experts. I wonder if it has to

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do with just a social disconnection that we got.

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Yeah, that hungry for more humans in our little

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space. And we replaced it with people with screens.

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Because it was easy. And then we just build.

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And I don't know, I wish I had grand solutions

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on how to solve this. But I just think sometimes

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that the less is more, especially when it comes

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to process. Yeah. Well, I know when I first started

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doing process engineering work, this was old

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school. The prevailing wisdom was hammer and

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champy. So this was new and emerging insights

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about how to redesign processes and make them

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more effective in the early 90s. they were building

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it on this concept of what is a skunkworks team?

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How do we find a small team? Let's remove all

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the other distractions so that they can stay

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solely focused on the project and the effort.

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And at the time, the thought was, gosh, is five

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people too many? Is six people too many? But

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the goal was to be really intentional about making

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sure you have the right people in the room. a

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lot of the logic was the byproduct of fewer channels

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of communication, fewer conflicting opinions.

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Sure. You didn't have the same overlap of expertise.

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And so you were taking an expert at their word.

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But in the early 90s, the Internet was still

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like, you know, still being designed in Netscape.

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Was it DARPA browser? Yeah. You mean a couple

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of professors and a bunch of military guys? No.

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And it was all pre -AI where we could have a

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confident and often wrong opinion injected almost

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immediately. So it is hard. I mean, maybe the

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question I would ask is like, in today's world,

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how do we figure out who is the expert voice

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to help guide decisions? If socially we want

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more people in the room, maybe there's a role

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for them. Maybe we want them to be present to

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it and witness the conversation, but nobody ever

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says, hey, Toby, can you come join us and just

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shut up? Like you don't have an opinion in this,

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but we want you to hear it live. And maybe that's,

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and at least for me, that's probably the right

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answer is like, did you try to shut up? Can we

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mute you and just have you listen? That should

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be our next podcast. I'll just talk. I tried

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that one time this year. It was awful. It was

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no fun. Maybe we'll do that. I'll join you, but

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I won't say anything and everybody else. Is that

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just Chris by himself? Yeah. You can edit me

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out of the... Yeah, I don't know. I mean, thinking

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back about some of the recent decisions, some

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of the choices that have been made that were

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effective, was there a certain pattern that you

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saw emerging? Because I think what we're talking

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about is arriving at healthy decisions that don't

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create all this debt to be serviced. Yeah, I

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think a lot of it like I've always been super

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successful and I have a small team Yeah, and

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it's like this is where we're headed. This is

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what we're doing We have choice. We have choice

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a choice B. It's it's this it's the The closer

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you can get to the big the people doing the work

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Yeah, I think the more efficient you can be as

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long as you're aligned And maybe that's the problem.

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The more people you have, the more opinions you

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have, right? You get to 23 people in a room,

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you've got two strong voices that agree that

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might not be aligned and you're heading to crazy

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town. Well, in a large group too, you're going

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to have things like the formal and informal hierarchy

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and the political powers that teams exercise,

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things we don't always talk about. This point

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of alignment, too, though, makes me think, I

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was jokingly saying, Toby, you're invited, but

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you don't get to talk. I do think there's probably

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a place to say, we're going to be having a conversation.

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And these are the only people that have a voting

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say in this. And I don't think we are as intentional

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about how we structure our meetings to let people

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know what role we're inviting them to fulfill.

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Or even what the purpose of the meeting is. Yeah.

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There's no reason why you can't have meetings

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that are all about building camaraderie. Whether

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it's remote or whether it's going to lunch or

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whatever. That's just good for the soul. And

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then there's other ones where it's like, look,

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this is a decision -making meeting or this is

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a research meeting. But oftentimes it's like,

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we're just all here pretending like we know what

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we're doing, but we don't really know and it's

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not clear. Chris I think that's super interesting

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because what you're suggesting is Could be a

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very simple solution and it begins with whoever's

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convening Yeah, and if you don't have an agenda

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at least you should have a purpose so that people

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know why they're being asked to forego an hour

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You and I have a friend who's recently taken

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on a new job. He's about 18 months in and he

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said I'm in no less than six hours of meetings

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a day Six hours of me Not all of which are his

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that he's convened. Yeah. Yeah. And so he just

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said, I don't know when I'm supposed to get anything

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done. Well, and I think that that's ultimately

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the problem, right? Like we've we basically if

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we tried to get everybody in the room. And I

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don't know if it's because we don't want to be

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offended or we don't know. Like we're trying

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to get this group think that actually could be

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helpful because we don't know where we're headed.

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Right. But it's almost like it's almost like

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if you're not aligned. It's almost like the next

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best thing is to pull people in. But that doesn't,

00:13:08.820 --> 00:13:10.919
that isn't necessarily the right move though.

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Yeah. And I don't know why, I don't know why

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we do that. Like I'm thinking back, you know,

00:13:16.080 --> 00:13:18.679
in a thousand years ago, why would we have done

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that? Right? And maybe, you know, if we're out

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on the plains in the Savannah in Africa, you

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and I, just hanging out, having a grand old time.

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But my guess is, is maybe, maybe it's that simple.

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There's this human nature thing where if things

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are not clear, You surround yourself with community.

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Yeah And and because it's so simple we grab more

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people put them on a room put them in the room

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and The reality is is like that's that may or

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may not be needed Hey at least for my part. I

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know there's times where The hierarchy like the

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org design hierarchy is different than the decision

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rights Yeah, and There's times where I find myself

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in a meeting and realize we don't have the proper

00:14:04.669 --> 00:14:09.509
decision maker. Oh Yeah, yeah, right And so in

00:14:09.509 --> 00:14:11.769
this exploration, it's one thing to say hey We

00:14:11.769 --> 00:14:13.669
randomly have two people that share a birthday.

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It only took 23 of us It's very different to

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say can we commit to a course of action that

00:14:20.149 --> 00:14:22.629
changes people's lives on a day -to -day basis?

00:14:23.210 --> 00:14:25.629
Yeah, who's authorized to actually make that

00:14:25.629 --> 00:14:29.789
decision? Yeah, so It does feel like with all

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the screens going on and all the technology,

00:14:31.889 --> 00:14:34.809
we forget sometimes that ultimately, you know,

00:14:34.889 --> 00:14:38.009
the impacts we're making can be really significant

00:14:38.009 --> 00:14:44.730
on that very common element. Well, we get confused

00:14:44.730 --> 00:14:50.789
between what is crafting versus what is community

00:14:50.789 --> 00:14:56.620
-type effort. Yeah. Right, like... I think I

00:14:56.620 --> 00:15:00.159
mentioned that these guys built the deck on my

00:15:00.159 --> 00:15:03.960
backyard and they had a plan, right? So they

00:15:03.960 --> 00:15:07.419
had a plan and it was basically like this small

00:15:07.419 --> 00:15:10.299
team. Again, it was like three to five people

00:15:10.299 --> 00:15:13.419
just doing what they needed to do. They came

00:15:13.419 --> 00:15:16.559
in, they were fully autonomous, did their thing.

00:15:17.159 --> 00:15:20.559
If there was a question that the contractor would

00:15:20.559 --> 00:15:23.620
call me and I would answer and we were off enrolling.

00:15:24.790 --> 00:15:28.490
But they knew what the end state was. Did they

00:15:28.490 --> 00:15:32.149
ask the electrician how long the two by eight

00:15:32.149 --> 00:15:36.230
should get cut down to? Did they ask him how

00:15:36.230 --> 00:15:38.590
much cement was required for a footing? I kind

00:15:38.590 --> 00:15:40.309
of feel like what you're touching on with the

00:15:40.309 --> 00:15:43.009
deck, which is super simple and probably these

00:15:43.009 --> 00:15:46.490
guys are executing without any confusion. Yeah.

00:15:48.789 --> 00:15:51.649
There's no asking, right? So it's only if you

00:15:51.649 --> 00:15:54.899
run into a problem, right? And yet it's almost

00:15:54.899 --> 00:15:58.320
like we want to all bring the problems or something.

00:15:58.419 --> 00:16:00.340
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know really

00:16:00.340 --> 00:16:02.580
what the, what the, what the right answer is,

00:16:02.620 --> 00:16:04.860
but I do think it's, I do think, you know, the

00:16:04.860 --> 00:16:11.379
point here is if you're, if you don't think about

00:16:11.379 --> 00:16:15.899
sometimes, I guess the point is, is sometimes

00:16:15.899 --> 00:16:20.340
if you have bad habits, they can lead to on the

00:16:20.340 --> 00:16:22.940
unintended consequences of just bad process.

00:16:24.379 --> 00:16:27.320
I'm also hearing too though from a process perspective

00:16:27.320 --> 00:16:32.240
that that there's there's a correlation between

00:16:32.240 --> 00:16:34.399
Complexity and then the importance of clarity

00:16:34.399 --> 00:16:37.779
perhaps Yeah, it's not more complexity means

00:16:37.779 --> 00:16:40.580
more bodies It's that more complexity means we

00:16:40.580 --> 00:16:42.519
need to be able to unpack it in such a way that

00:16:42.519 --> 00:16:46.899
we can get the clarity to take that correct And

00:16:46.899 --> 00:16:48.440
then what are your what are your constraints,

00:16:48.440 --> 00:16:51.740
right? So like, you know, I know I know As I

00:16:51.740 --> 00:16:55.139
mentioned before, huge fan of Toyota, you know,

00:16:55.139 --> 00:16:58.620
One Piece Flow, like in many, many reasons I

00:16:58.620 --> 00:17:02.860
love the way that they do their business. And

00:17:02.860 --> 00:17:09.000
they spend three months thinking, thinking and

00:17:09.000 --> 00:17:12.579
arguing and thinking some more and arguing and

00:17:12.579 --> 00:17:16.259
thinking some more and arguing. And yet it's

00:17:16.259 --> 00:17:18.740
just part of their culture because, and they

00:17:18.740 --> 00:17:22.450
also, they also They've also kind of flipped

00:17:22.450 --> 00:17:24.609
the script as far as who's the most important

00:17:24.609 --> 00:17:27.009
like in their culture The most important are

00:17:27.009 --> 00:17:28.750
the people that are actually doing the work.

00:17:29.630 --> 00:17:32.450
I Don't think that I think that's very contrary

00:17:32.450 --> 00:17:35.890
to our Western capitalists minded hierarchical

00:17:35.890 --> 00:17:39.849
design. Yep, you know because it's Because it's

00:17:39.849 --> 00:17:42.990
very easy to be nebulous and then go and take

00:17:42.990 --> 00:17:47.349
take credit When something emerges, oh my god,

00:17:47.490 --> 00:17:49.700
so true. It's like it's like You know, it's like

00:17:49.700 --> 00:17:52.119
my wife, when she, you know, she planted a garden,

00:17:52.500 --> 00:17:54.539
you know, it's, it's not like she goes out to

00:17:54.539 --> 00:17:56.619
the garden and say, look at those seeds that

00:17:56.619 --> 00:17:59.019
I made. You're like, no, they're just, the seeds

00:17:59.019 --> 00:18:01.619
just grew. Like, that's just what happens. But

00:18:01.619 --> 00:18:05.759
like I think the business can be that way. No,

00:18:05.759 --> 00:18:09.640
it's true. Chris, I think I love this, the birthday

00:18:09.640 --> 00:18:14.900
paradox. Interesting, probably not the best way

00:18:14.900 --> 00:18:18.329
to try to solve complex problems. No. Maybe a

00:18:18.329 --> 00:18:20.670
very common way, but not necessarily the best

00:18:20.670 --> 00:18:26.529
way. Yeah. This week, next week, just move intentionally.

00:18:26.829 --> 00:18:29.589
Yeah. And we'll catch everyone next week. Thanks,

00:18:29.710 --> 00:18:32.170
man. Good stuff, buddy. All right. See you. See

00:18:32.170 --> 00:18:32.369
you.
