WEBVTT

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Hey, what's up, Toby? We made it another week.

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Yeah. Hey, happy Friday. That's right. We are

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rocking and rolling today. I want to talk about

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decision making. Oh, you got some decisions you

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want to make? There's always lots of decisions.

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More that I probably don't want to make. Right?

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But that's part of it. Realizing how few decisions

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you actually want to make. You know, for a second,

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before we get into where you want to go, decision

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fatigue, right? Oh, God. Yeah. Like, what's for

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dinner? By that time of day, and it comes every

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day, I'm kind of pooped out. And so there's a

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myriad of decisions. So I'm kind of curious from,

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you know, do I put on my pants before my shoes

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to what's for dinner? Do I brush my teeth before

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I fall in bed? What layer of decision making

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are you thinking about? Yeah, I mean, I'm thinking

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business decisions, right? So there's all the

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anecdotes of like... Steve Jobs always only had

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like one outfit. Right. Right. Or Brahma had

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the one, you know, the one black suit or something.

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Because they wanted to make sure that their decisions

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were clear and clean. Totally. And I think the

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reason why I want to talk about business decisions

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is because they're just so hard to track after

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the fact. I'm not talking like before the fact.

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Sure. Yeah. But I'm talking like doing like retros

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at the business decision level. And it wasn't

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an effective decision is what you're asking.

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How do we... Yeah. How do you know? Yeah. Yeah.

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Is there an example of a decision that you've

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been thinking about or maybe abstracted? But

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I think it's a super interesting question because

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I immediately go to most organizations today

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are so short -term focused that... Yeah. It's,

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did I keep my job at the quarterly earnings call?

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Yeah, for sure. The best thought or the best

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way that I've seen that enacted in a company

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is I worked at an e -commerce company for a while,

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in the purchasing department, and they actually

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did... They looked for the mean absolute percentage

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error on purchasing. And so what they did was

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is they would figure out are the purchasing individual,

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do they buy us high or buy us low on their purchasing.

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And it was really cool. Like it was, it was,

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it was like, it was done in a way that empowered

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the team for them to have some self -awareness

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around, hey, I know that when I purchase, I purchase

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high or I purchase low because it's in, you know,

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in inventory, it's always this balance of like,

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well, you can have a hundred percent ship, you

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can ship everything. Yeah. But that means that

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you need to have infinite inventory, which finance

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doesn't want. Right. So finance wants to keep

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your stocks on hand really, really low. That

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leads to stock outs. And so It was this really,

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really good example in operations of tracking

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people's decision -making based on their job.

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And so that's kind of where I go when I think

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about this. But then that leads to, oh, how is

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this done at the strategic levels? Or how is

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this done in our day -to -day jobs? Chris, what

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I love about the example that you just shared

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is that You also pointed at the natural tension

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in the business between the actions of purchasing

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who want infinite supply and the counterbalancing

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tension that finance introduces, which is to

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say, don't put all of our money into inventory.

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And so that little bit of tension is really clear.

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Individual purchasers probably weren't contemplating

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that, but you were able to arrive at a point

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of bias. It makes me think for our strategic

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decisions, Where is that point of tension? You

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know, there's, there has to be some natural limit.

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And so too often strategic decisions with truly

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strategic decisions are turning a battleship

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of effort. Yeah. Oh, for sure. Rarely is it a

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motorboat kind of action where it's like, you

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know, jig left and then jig back to the right

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area. Those are, they may feel strategic depending

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on where you're at in the organization, but in

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terms of shifting the outcomes of the overall,

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it's a lot smaller. And so. I'm imagining when

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you say strategic, you know, we might be time

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out launching a new product line, a new partners.

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Oh, for sure. And acquisition. How do we know

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if that was the right choice? And what is that

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natural tension that makes me think about like

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the HP compact merger, you know, where a lot

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of our listeners, they may be. What is that?

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You know, battle of the battle of the printers.

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It's, you know. Yeah. But we have a whole host

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of these things that we often don't realize the

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consequences of them because the knock on effect

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is so nuanced. Yeah. Well, what's interesting,

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the other thing that's interesting is like, I

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think the challenge can become, it becomes this,

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becomes a political problem, right? Which is

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like, how am I as an individual assessing what

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the strategy is and how do I apply that strategy?

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to my area or not do it, because I think sometimes

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we forget that not doing something is a decision

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and oftentimes can be the right decision. Yeah.

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Wow. We were talking earlier this week about

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the scientific approach, you know, to publishing

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and you made the comment that rarely is it a

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solo act. It's usually a group of folks that

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have collaborated to publish, you know, big pieces

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of work. But there's an inherent bias in which

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they're asking what's wrong with my theory And

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yeah, and that's the lens that incremental peers

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bring to it Which is totally counter to how the

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corporate world works and to your point. It's

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a political will Well, as opposed to a strong

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Grounded theory. So yeah, so should maybe I'll

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ask the question this way Like is testing of

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a strategic decision. Are we testing it from

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a political lens? Or are we trying to test it

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from a validity and an effectiveness lens? From

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a grow the business lens because sometimes it's

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just it's antics on Wall Street and it puts our

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name in the Headlines and our stock price goes

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up, you know, yeah, what what kind of lens are

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you thinking about? I mean, I think I think the

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first thing that you have to do is you got to

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make sure that you have a strategy I'm not even

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trying to be flippant there. But like I think

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sometimes strategy Coming up with a really solid

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strategy, specifically one that's a year out,

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is actually a lot harder than we think. And practically

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what that looks like is what is, I always go

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back to, there's a book on strategy that I read

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that just talked about strategy is like having

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a illness and having to go to a doctor where

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there's a problem. There's a, you go to the doctor,

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the doctor gives you an action plan, which is

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like, this is what we're going to do. And then

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there's an outcome of better health. And I think

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most, I think sometimes people forget to just,

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when it comes to strategy, just to think about

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those, right? So the, and like what problems

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are you solving for what people? What actions

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or what directions are you going to take and

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how are you going to resource them? Because it

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does come down to you know, that's great like

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you can have a strategy all you want But if you're

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not resourcing it doesn't matter Right, or if

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you're the other thing is like if you're gonna

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have a strategy all day And if you don't know

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what pain the people are in yeah Then you're

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you're resourcing the wrong things Right if you

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don't have someone who has control of you know

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where those pieces go He was in you're gonna

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be you're gonna be too thin. Yeah, right working

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on too many things I love the piece you didn't

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touch on that was inherent in your analogy, I

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think, is you have an expert providing a diagnosis.

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Yeah. And I will say that there's been a lot

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of conversations where the role of the executive

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is misunderstood. They should be having a bunch

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of diagnosticians come in and opine from their

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unique areas of expertise, right? But instead...

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this idea of the superhero CEO, the all -knowing,

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all -seeing one -man band, I think it's unfortunate

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because we don't necessarily let senior executives

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draw around them these experts that have developed

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new ways of diagnosing or new ways of solutioning.

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That raises a really interesting question. It

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does make me think then in terms of how we understand

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decision -making, is there even a framework?

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You know, if we don't know the causal chain of

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if this and that, it's really hard to know if

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the remedy was effective. So I have a fever and

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it plunged me in a nice bath and hold me under

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water for two days. My temperature is going to

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come down. I'll be dead, but they got the outcome.

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One of the problems is like just raw accountability.

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Yeah. And it's the time component that makes

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it really difficult. Are you talking about the

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resourcing element from a decision? Well, what

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I'm just thinking of like the ability to hold

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people accountable to their decision -making

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means that there's a time component, which means

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that you're going to have to go back in time

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and you're going to have to determine what was

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predicted based on that decision. I think the

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biggest problem with that is if we go back in

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time, we would instantly be faced with terrible

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predictions that we make as human beings. For

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sure. And probably the people that are the most

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accurate are also the people that are providing

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the longer timelines, which you don't have appetites

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for. And so that ends up being this really kind

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of counter -intuitive business logic, which is

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hard things take a long time, and the appetite

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for doing hard things, unless it's blended with

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other long -term items, it's going to feel like,

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what have you done for me lately? And so I have

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a friend that just released a really cool outward

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-facing, client -facing website, and I was like...

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And they shared it this quarter. And I was like,

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that is the coolest thing I've seen in a very

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long time. And I'm like, how long did that take?

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And they're like two to three years. I'm like,

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yep. That's how long this time this stuff takes.

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Right. Just because you've got it. You've got

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to have the foresight to code it in a way that

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you can get there. You, you have to balance all

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the other things that are coming in and you have

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to go in and and execute, and then you have to

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go through all of the rigmarole of getting something

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publicly facing, which means that you got to

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make sure that all your stuff is API'd and pin

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tested and all, or pin tested. You have to do

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all those things. Like it is an immense amount

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of work, and yet you can't have, you couldn't

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have that expectation for every single quarter

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for that team to land like that, because that

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was such a huge effort. But among all of the

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org, It would make sense that stuff like that

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would start to fall if people are aligning towards

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a strategy, which in that case has put abilities

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into the client's hands. That's an interesting

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example of something that is, and legitimately

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great big enterprise, consumer facing websites.

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There's so much going on in all the complexity.

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I hadn't thought about that for a while. So at

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first I thought two to three years and I thought,

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okay, well, depending on what it is and the confidentiality,

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that makes sense. Well, and a lot of it was not

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necessarily the real calendar time. It's just

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you have to have that direction, put a stake

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in the ground. Any loose ends that you have or

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extra time, extra cycles that you have in a sprint,

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you would throw it towards that direction. And

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so, a lot of it was being strategic, putting

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those stakes in the ground, and then just marching

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in that way, and it just happened to land. Now,

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it took a lot of effort, but the calendar time

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took more because it wasn't a direct, hey, we

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should go do this now. Because if we were to

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say, hey, let's go do this now, then maybe that

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becomes a six -month project. Chris, you know

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what it makes me think about? I worked in and

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around the internal audit function years ago,

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and there's a myriad of different ways that they

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try to assess risk, and internal audit's job

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is to understand is the business functioning

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in a healthy and viable way, right? Are we meeting

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all of the expectations that we've communicated

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to the public, whether it's ethical obligations

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or degree of risk, whatever the case is? Auditors

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have a number of things that they'll review against.

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Everything from what was the intention? Was there

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a framework that was followed? Was there governance

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process that decision had to pass through? The

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question that raises for me, though, in light

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of this one was, your friend just successfully

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launched a website, two to three years of effort,

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let's say it that way, manpower. Does that individual

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now... Has their star risen by virtue of having

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delivered on what they committed? Or did people

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understand? I'm wondering if it matters to be.

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Oh, no, no. That's really what's interesting

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is this kind of goes back to a couple of episodes

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ago. It's obvious after it's obvious. Right.

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And so you basically know that this is the right

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direction. Right you you basically make sure

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that you're carving carving timeout every sprint

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planning and then at the end You deliver this

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and everybody's like, oh my gosh, this is so

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great. And so it's the the the outcome and the

00:15:09.970 --> 00:15:16.960
expectation is And the acceptance of how good

00:15:16.960 --> 00:15:21.080
of an idea this was, was really kind of after

00:15:21.080 --> 00:15:29.259
the fact. And so it's kind of like, in the absence

00:15:29.259 --> 00:15:37.220
of an overarching kind of strategy, it's a lot

00:15:37.220 --> 00:15:39.679
of people trying to figure out what the right

00:15:39.679 --> 00:15:42.600
thing is for them politically, for their teams

00:15:42.600 --> 00:15:46.580
politically. and really ultimately what everybody

00:15:46.580 --> 00:15:53.100
wants up the chain. I'm with you. Let's bring

00:15:53.100 --> 00:15:57.899
this back and put a bullseye on how this relates

00:15:57.899 --> 00:16:01.740
to process, which I think is the idea that decisions

00:16:01.740 --> 00:16:05.419
made without any kind of backcasting or confirmation,

00:16:05.820 --> 00:16:09.019
retrospectively, how do we know if it's creating

00:16:09.019 --> 00:16:13.259
problems or solving problems? What are some thoughts

00:16:13.259 --> 00:16:14.720
that you might have around that? I mean, you

00:16:14.720 --> 00:16:16.539
and I have talked a lot about different kinds

00:16:16.539 --> 00:16:20.519
of decision bias. So being aware of that bias

00:16:20.519 --> 00:16:24.120
is part of it. Yeah. I mean, I think a practical

00:16:24.120 --> 00:16:26.740
one that CEOs use today is zero -based budgeting.

00:16:28.679 --> 00:16:31.539
I think... Just to force them to be intentional

00:16:31.539 --> 00:16:35.320
about resource allocation. It forces them to

00:16:35.320 --> 00:16:37.799
think about their business. The challenge is

00:16:37.799 --> 00:16:41.750
you just end up with... sharks and sheep, right?

00:16:42.009 --> 00:16:46.090
Like you've got your people that are just basically

00:16:46.090 --> 00:16:50.309
there to enhance their career, their career around

00:16:50.309 --> 00:16:53.750
them. And that still doesn't change the bias

00:16:53.750 --> 00:16:56.250
thing. But it is a good forcing function that

00:16:56.250 --> 00:16:58.929
forces people to communicate what the expectations

00:16:58.929 --> 00:17:01.309
are. I do think, you know, we've talked about

00:17:01.309 --> 00:17:04.589
this a lot, just having a cohort. Like what's

00:17:04.589 --> 00:17:08.140
your cohort? What are your constraints? because

00:17:08.140 --> 00:17:11.920
you will end up finding out where the work needs

00:17:11.920 --> 00:17:15.200
to be done. And if you're doing work, I don't

00:17:15.200 --> 00:17:17.599
know if we've talked about Eli Goldratt's book

00:17:17.599 --> 00:17:20.619
called The Goal, but it talks about constraints.

00:17:21.460 --> 00:17:26.819
And he has a lot of, it's a story, but it's a

00:17:26.819 --> 00:17:29.279
story on how if you fix constraints, then you

00:17:29.279 --> 00:17:33.759
fix the system. And so I think if you're working

00:17:33.759 --> 00:17:35.700
on something that's not a constraint, you're

00:17:35.700 --> 00:17:39.619
not actually making, you essentially are building

00:17:39.619 --> 00:17:43.279
process debt. That's interesting. Because you're

00:17:43.279 --> 00:17:46.720
not making the system any better. Yep. So can

00:17:46.720 --> 00:17:49.079
you explain, I guess the two qualifiers I heard

00:17:49.079 --> 00:17:53.240
is, what does this decision do to shift existing

00:17:53.240 --> 00:17:56.140
resources, zero -based budgeting, and then the

00:17:56.140 --> 00:17:59.099
idea of constraint, are you addressing an existing

00:17:59.099 --> 00:18:03.819
operational constraint? Yeah. Just a really binary

00:18:03.819 --> 00:18:08.069
question. Are you making the system better? And

00:18:08.069 --> 00:18:12.630
then the other one is just retros. Like if we

00:18:12.630 --> 00:18:16.809
were forced to make a decision a month, or even

00:18:16.809 --> 00:18:18.869
a decision a quarter, and just say, hey, when

00:18:18.869 --> 00:18:22.450
do you expect this to be? We would probably all

00:18:22.450 --> 00:18:24.589
end up in a deep depression because our predictions

00:18:24.589 --> 00:18:29.650
are so terrible. That is interesting. Do you

00:18:29.650 --> 00:18:31.789
think that decision making is like a muscle,

00:18:31.970 --> 00:18:34.049
that it gets better the more often it's used?

00:18:34.190 --> 00:18:38.579
Or do you think that it fatigues? I think it's

00:18:38.579 --> 00:18:42.460
like practicing golf. You can go out to the range

00:18:42.460 --> 00:18:46.779
and just swing a ball, but I guarantee you professionals

00:18:46.779 --> 00:18:50.380
are not practicing that way. And so just because

00:18:50.380 --> 00:18:52.480
you go out to the driving range and hit a ball

00:18:52.480 --> 00:18:54.240
doesn't mean that your game is actually getting

00:18:54.240 --> 00:18:56.500
better, because you're just basically taking

00:18:56.500 --> 00:19:01.160
a crappy swing and just doing it more. Unless

00:19:01.160 --> 00:19:05.500
you can turn it into a practice. And you can

00:19:05.500 --> 00:19:08.599
measure decisions going in and decisions going

00:19:08.599 --> 00:19:11.200
out. And I think what you would do, and we played

00:19:11.200 --> 00:19:12.720
around with this a little bit with the cash flow

00:19:12.720 --> 00:19:16.740
calculator, which is like, look, if you take

00:19:16.740 --> 00:19:20.140
finances, whatever those are, and you put a prediction

00:19:20.140 --> 00:19:23.519
on when the sales are going to come in and what

00:19:23.519 --> 00:19:26.160
your operating expense are, and you track that,

00:19:26.619 --> 00:19:29.839
and you see that over time, it forces people

00:19:29.839 --> 00:19:33.400
to think slower. versus thinking fast, oftentimes

00:19:33.400 --> 00:19:40.319
in meetings is just pushing the decision off.

00:19:42.420 --> 00:19:44.920
Interesting. I don't know if we landed something.

00:19:45.279 --> 00:19:48.000
I do think the coverage is around. Maybe we'll

00:19:48.000 --> 00:19:51.640
come back to it in a future episode. I'm glad

00:19:51.640 --> 00:19:57.059
we had the conversation though. It is a quandary.

00:19:57.980 --> 00:20:02.349
It's hard, really hard. I do think that you're

00:20:02.349 --> 00:20:04.869
either going to get significantly better with

00:20:04.869 --> 00:20:08.250
GPTs and general of AI with your decision making,

00:20:08.990 --> 00:20:11.269
or you're going to be forced to make more decisions

00:20:11.269 --> 00:20:14.450
and do it just this same way over and over again.

00:20:14.609 --> 00:20:17.549
I do think that those two will come together.

00:20:17.869 --> 00:20:22.089
Chris, I guess the thought that I take away from

00:20:22.089 --> 00:20:24.990
this is that idea of what is your perfect practice

00:20:24.990 --> 00:20:28.750
as an individual? Yours, mine, whoever, right?

00:20:28.910 --> 00:20:32.089
And if we're not intentional about how we come

00:20:32.089 --> 00:20:35.569
at the practice of decision making, it's super

00:20:35.569 --> 00:20:39.549
hard to know how you evaluate it. So that may

00:20:39.549 --> 00:20:43.130
be the place to start. That is the start. Figure

00:20:43.130 --> 00:20:46.630
out what decisions you're making and start with

00:20:46.630 --> 00:20:48.569
yourself. And if you're a manager, start with

00:20:48.569 --> 00:20:53.150
your people. Just don't do multiples. Like pick

00:20:53.150 --> 00:20:56.309
one a quarter and see if that works. That's an

00:20:56.309 --> 00:20:58.930
interesting exercise. Run your business as business

00:20:58.930 --> 00:21:01.750
as usual for a day, for a week, for a month.

00:21:02.589 --> 00:21:05.069
Yeah. Yeah. Let's see what happens and make it

00:21:05.069 --> 00:21:07.029
better. All right. All right, sir. We made it

00:21:07.029 --> 00:21:09.309
through another one. All righty. More to come.

00:21:09.369 --> 00:21:10.089
Talk to you later. See you buddy.
