WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.520 So a mature hurricane is basically one of the 00:00:03.520 --> 00:00:06.459 most efficient thermodynamic engines on Earth. 00:00:06.639 --> 00:00:08.480 Yeah, that's a good way to describe it. Right, 00:00:08.599 --> 00:00:11.339 because it operates by extracting all this thermal 00:00:11.339 --> 00:00:14.580 energy from warm ocean waters, and then it converts 00:00:14.580 --> 00:00:17.600 that heat into kinetic energy, which is just 00:00:17.600 --> 00:00:20.339 wind. And then it exhausts whatever is left over 00:00:20.339 --> 00:00:22.440 straight into the upper atmosphere. Yeah. So 00:00:22.440 --> 00:00:25.899 when you are sitting at home tracking a major 00:00:25.899 --> 00:00:28.879 storm turning across the Atlantic or the Gulf 00:00:28.879 --> 00:00:31.399 of Mexico, you are watching a planetary scale 00:00:31.399 --> 00:00:34.420 heat transfer mechanism happen in real time. 00:00:34.479 --> 00:00:37.439 It's massive. And for the entirety of human history, 00:00:37.780 --> 00:00:40.880 our relationship with these systems has been, 00:00:40.899 --> 00:00:44.060 well, entirely defensive. Right, we analyze the 00:00:44.060 --> 00:00:47.539 data, we run prediction models, issue evacuation 00:00:47.539 --> 00:00:50.140 orders. We build higher sea walls. Yeah, we build 00:00:50.140 --> 00:00:52.719 walls because the underlying assumption has always 00:00:52.719 --> 00:00:54.979 been that a weather system of this magnitude 00:00:54.979 --> 00:00:57.460 just cannot be negotiated with. You can't alter 00:00:57.460 --> 00:00:59.719 it. But there is a shift happening in atmospheric 00:00:59.719 --> 00:01:02.179 science right now that's starting to challenge 00:01:02.179 --> 00:01:04.219 that foundational assumption. Which honestly 00:01:04.219 --> 00:01:06.859 sounds like pure science fiction. It really does. 00:01:06.859 --> 00:01:09.579 But there is recent peer -reviewed research, 00:01:10.120 --> 00:01:12.599 specifically this really comprehensive stuff 00:01:12.599 --> 00:01:15.680 coming out in the journal, PLOS Water, that is 00:01:15.680 --> 00:01:19.060 proposing a theoretical framework for actually 00:01:19.060 --> 00:01:22.019 subtly steering massive storms. Steering a hurricane. 00:01:22.260 --> 00:01:25.120 Yeah. We are looking at a proposition that pairs 00:01:25.120 --> 00:01:28.120 advanced artificial intelligence and high -resolution 00:01:28.120 --> 00:01:32.549 atmospheric modeling with targeted weather modification. 00:01:32.769 --> 00:01:35.129 To disrupt the storms days before they ever make 00:01:35.129 --> 00:01:38.769 landfall. Welcome to Meteorology Matters, the 00:01:38.769 --> 00:01:41.230 podcast that dives deep into the science, chaos, 00:01:41.430 --> 00:01:43.189 and stories behind the weather that shapes our 00:01:43.189 --> 00:01:45.510 world. This show was created by meteorologist 00:01:45.510 --> 00:01:48.450 Rob Jones. So today, we are really unpacking 00:01:48.450 --> 00:01:50.689 the gap between these theoretical AI weather 00:01:50.689 --> 00:01:53.310 models and the physical reality of atmospheric 00:01:53.310 --> 00:01:55.109 science. Because it's a huge gap. We are going 00:01:55.109 --> 00:01:57.730 to examine the microphysics of cloud seeding, 00:01:57.829 --> 00:02:00.640 the historical precedence of you know, past attempts 00:02:00.640 --> 00:02:03.420 to manipulate massive storms. We definitely have 00:02:03.420 --> 00:02:05.659 to get into the intense ethical dilemmas that 00:02:05.659 --> 00:02:07.739 pop up when you try to alter natural systems. 00:02:08.159 --> 00:02:10.719 Yeah, the legal side of that is wild. Plus, we 00:02:10.719 --> 00:02:12.780 will explore how meteorologists working today 00:02:12.780 --> 00:02:16.099 are constantly forced to untangle this real evidence 00:02:16.099 --> 00:02:18.580 -based science from the flood of weather control 00:02:18.580 --> 00:02:21.400 conspiracy theories that inevitably show up online 00:02:21.400 --> 00:02:24.139 after every major heat wave, flood, or hurricane. 00:02:24.199 --> 00:02:27.379 To really understand the motivation driving this 00:02:27.379 --> 00:02:29.949 new wave of research. We kind of have to look 00:02:29.949 --> 00:02:32.310 at the current vulnerability of our infrastructure. 00:02:32.550 --> 00:02:34.750 Because things are failing. They are. We are 00:02:34.750 --> 00:02:37.349 dealing with a climate reality where the frequency 00:02:37.349 --> 00:02:39.629 and the intensity of extreme weather events are 00:02:39.629 --> 00:02:42.169 just placing unprecedented stress on you, on 00:02:42.169 --> 00:02:44.669 your community, on coastal areas, and inland 00:02:44.669 --> 00:02:47.360 power grids. Yeah, and the research we are looking 00:02:47.360 --> 00:02:49.680 at today, which was co -authored by Upmanu Lal 00:02:49.680 --> 00:02:52.240 over at Arizona State University, it opens with 00:02:52.240 --> 00:02:54.919 a very stark assessment of our current defenses. 00:02:55.159 --> 00:02:57.740 Because the dams, the levees, the seawalls, even 00:02:57.740 --> 00:03:00.360 financial safety nets like your insurance policies, 00:03:00.819 --> 00:03:02.699 they are increasingly insufficient to handle 00:03:02.699 --> 00:03:05.219 these hazards. We have spent decades basically 00:03:05.219 --> 00:03:07.960 engineering physical barriers based on historical 00:03:07.960 --> 00:03:10.620 flood data and historical wind speeds. But that 00:03:10.620 --> 00:03:12.990 baseline is shifting. The water is getting too 00:03:12.990 --> 00:03:15.250 high. The storms are getting too strong. So the 00:03:15.250 --> 00:03:17.710 traditional strategy of just building a taller 00:03:17.710 --> 00:03:20.770 concrete wall, it's yielding diminishing returns. 00:03:21.169 --> 00:03:23.370 Right. So the authors of this research are suggesting 00:03:23.370 --> 00:03:26.430 a fundamental pivot. Instead of a defensive posture, 00:03:26.789 --> 00:03:29.889 they want to move to active, calculated intervention. 00:03:30.229 --> 00:03:32.740 Which is a huge paradigm shift. Their proposed 00:03:32.740 --> 00:03:35.219 solution involves leveraging existing delivery 00:03:35.219 --> 00:03:37.439 mechanisms, like the technology we currently 00:03:37.439 --> 00:03:40.360 use in cloud seeding operations. But supercharging 00:03:40.360 --> 00:03:42.539 it? Yeah, supercharging it by integrating it 00:03:42.539 --> 00:03:45.340 with a new generation of high -tech, atmospheric 00:03:45.340 --> 00:03:48.120 data collection, real -time observations, and 00:03:48.120 --> 00:03:50.979 very sophisticated AI modeling. So the goal isn't 00:03:50.979 --> 00:03:53.460 to build a larger wall. The goal is to use AI 00:03:53.460 --> 00:03:56.620 to calculate the exact precise time and physical 00:03:56.620 --> 00:03:59.919 location to introduce a minor atmospheric disruption. 00:04:00.139 --> 00:04:03.060 A nudge. A nudge, yeah. The theory is that this 00:04:03.060 --> 00:04:05.379 tiny disruption could cascade through the whole 00:04:05.379 --> 00:04:08.439 weather system and fundamentally alter its trajectory 00:04:08.439 --> 00:04:11.340 or its intensity before it hits a city. And the 00:04:11.340 --> 00:04:13.719 researchers actually provided three specific 00:04:13.719 --> 00:04:15.939 historical hypotheticals to illustrate the scale 00:04:15.939 --> 00:04:19.050 of this. And the claims are... frankly staggering. 00:04:19.189 --> 00:04:20.910 Yeah let's go through those because they applied 00:04:20.910 --> 00:04:24.689 this theoretical framework to past events to 00:04:24.689 --> 00:04:26.290 model what an intervention might have looked 00:04:26.290 --> 00:04:28.899 like. The first one is Superstorm Sandy from 00:04:28.899 --> 00:04:32.740 2012. Oh, wow. OK. Yeah. They suggest that with 00:04:32.740 --> 00:04:35.680 a carefully timed localized operation applied 00:04:35.680 --> 00:04:38.100 days in advance, they could have shifted the 00:04:38.100 --> 00:04:41.100 track of Sandy by about 300 miles. Wait, 300 00:04:41.100 --> 00:04:43.639 miles? Yeah, stewing the system so it would have 00:04:43.639 --> 00:04:45.959 completely bypassed New York City. I mean, a 00:04:45.959 --> 00:04:48.639 300 mile displacement for a system the size of 00:04:48.639 --> 00:04:52.220 Sandy is just a monumental alteration of atmospheric 00:04:52.220 --> 00:04:55.079 steering currents. It really is. Sandy was uniquely 00:04:55.079 --> 00:04:57.110 devastating because of was massive wind field. 00:04:57.110 --> 00:05:00.089 It spanned nearly 1 ,000 miles. And it had that 00:05:00.089 --> 00:05:02.550 highly unusual left hook into the New Jersey 00:05:02.550 --> 00:05:04.750 coastline. Driven by a blocking high pressure 00:05:04.750 --> 00:05:07.230 system in the North Atlantic. Right. So to alter 00:05:07.230 --> 00:05:10.069 that interaction so drastically, it implies a 00:05:10.069 --> 00:05:12.310 level of control over synoptic scale features 00:05:12.310 --> 00:05:15.250 that goes way beyond anything we can currently 00:05:15.250 --> 00:05:18.250 do. Way beyond. And the hypotheticals don't stop 00:05:18.250 --> 00:05:21.839 at tropical cyclones. The second scenario focuses 00:05:21.839 --> 00:05:25.060 on the Texas freeze of February 2021. That was 00:05:25.060 --> 00:05:27.740 devastating. It was. And the study suggests that 00:05:27.740 --> 00:05:29.660 an intervention could have raised the low temperatures 00:05:29.660 --> 00:05:32.620 of that polar air mass by roughly 18 degrees 00:05:32.620 --> 00:05:35.980 Fahrenheit. 18 degrees. In meteorological terms, 00:05:36.300 --> 00:05:40.079 an 18 degree modification to a continental polar 00:05:40.079 --> 00:05:43.060 air mass. I mean, that is the difference between 00:05:43.060 --> 00:05:45.300 widespread catastrophic infrastructure failure 00:05:45.300 --> 00:05:48.959 across the entire Texas power grid and just a 00:05:48.959 --> 00:05:52.060 manageable standard winter day. Yeah, it changes 00:05:52.060 --> 00:05:54.360 the entire event. And finally, they applied this 00:05:54.360 --> 00:05:57.819 AI modeling to a 2022 California atmospheric 00:05:57.819 --> 00:05:59.680 river. OK, and what do they say for that one? 00:05:59.949 --> 00:06:02.670 They proposed they could have reduced the precipitation 00:06:02.670 --> 00:06:05.910 carried by the system by 5%. Just 5%. Yeah. Which 00:06:05.910 --> 00:06:08.529 sounds small, but they calculate that would have 00:06:08.529 --> 00:06:10.389 been enough to mitigate the most severe flooding 00:06:10.389 --> 00:06:13.029 impacts. So the authors have to know how audacious 00:06:13.029 --> 00:06:15.490 these claims sound to the rest of the meteorological 00:06:15.490 --> 00:06:18.910 community. Oh, they are fully aware. So, to try 00:06:18.910 --> 00:06:21.290 and contextualize this theoretical framework, 00:06:21.949 --> 00:06:24.509 they rely on a specific analogy. They call it 00:06:24.509 --> 00:06:27.290 weather jujitsu. Weather jujitsu, okay. Yeah. 00:06:27.389 --> 00:06:29.410 Manu Lal explains that the fundamental principle 00:06:29.410 --> 00:06:32.529 of jujitsu is achieving maximum physical efficiency 00:06:32.529 --> 00:06:36.610 with minimal applied effort. Right. So, a smaller 00:06:36.610 --> 00:06:39.009 defender doesn't try to match the brute strength 00:06:39.009 --> 00:06:42.230 of a massive attacker. They use leverage, precise 00:06:42.230 --> 00:06:44.569 timing, and the attacker's own momentum against 00:06:44.569 --> 00:06:46.879 them. So in this framework, human intervention 00:06:46.879 --> 00:06:50.459 is the smaller defender, and the massive incoming 00:06:50.459 --> 00:06:53.279 hurricane or atmospheric river is the attacker. 00:06:53.540 --> 00:06:55.920 That's the idea. The entire theory hinges on 00:06:55.920 --> 00:06:58.920 the inherent chaos of atmospheric dynamics. You 00:06:58.920 --> 00:07:01.040 know, the atmosphere is a nonlinear dynamical 00:07:01.040 --> 00:07:03.439 system. Meaning it is highly sensitive to initial 00:07:03.439 --> 00:07:05.779 conditions. The classic butterfly effect. So 00:07:05.779 --> 00:07:08.259 they hypothesize that if AI could just ingest 00:07:08.259 --> 00:07:10.779 enough high resolution data to find the exact 00:07:10.779 --> 00:07:13.709 atmospheric pressure point, a really localized 00:07:13.709 --> 00:07:16.610 intervention applied days before the storm's 00:07:16.610 --> 00:07:19.350 peak could multiply over time. It leverages the 00:07:19.350 --> 00:07:22.310 system's own momentum to create a cascading effect 00:07:22.310 --> 00:07:24.649 that alters the track. I have to challenge this 00:07:24.649 --> 00:07:26.610 premise though by taking their own analogy a 00:07:26.610 --> 00:07:29.850 step further. Because in martial arts, the defender 00:07:29.850 --> 00:07:32.250 has to maintain a physical connection to the 00:07:32.250 --> 00:07:34.850 attacker. to apply that leverage, right? Right. 00:07:35.209 --> 00:07:38.009 In meteorology, trying to apply a subtle nudge 00:07:38.009 --> 00:07:40.589 days in advance to alter a hurricane track by 00:07:40.589 --> 00:07:44.589 300 miles, it sounds less like leverage and more 00:07:44.589 --> 00:07:47.089 like trying to reroute a speeding freight train 00:07:47.089 --> 00:07:49.589 by placing a single coin on the tracks three 00:07:49.589 --> 00:07:52.040 miles down the line. A great analogy. Like, can 00:07:52.040 --> 00:07:54.600 a localized disruption actually cascade into 00:07:54.600 --> 00:07:57.980 a synoptic scale shift? Or does the sheer volume 00:07:57.980 --> 00:08:00.300 and energy of the atmosphere just absorb that 00:08:00.300 --> 00:08:02.819 tiny disruption and keep going on its original 00:08:02.819 --> 00:08:05.259 path? And that is the central physical question 00:08:05.259 --> 00:08:08.040 dividing the theoretical modeling community and 00:08:08.040 --> 00:08:10.819 observational meteorologists right now. To evaluate 00:08:10.819 --> 00:08:13.120 whether this cascading effect is actually physically 00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:15.720 viable, we have to look closely at the delivery 00:08:15.720 --> 00:08:18.899 mechanism they suggest for initiating this nudge. 00:08:19.160 --> 00:08:21.839 Which brings us to cloud seeding. It does, and 00:08:21.839 --> 00:08:24.620 it is critical to define what cloud seeding actually 00:08:24.620 --> 00:08:27.720 entails today in reality as opposed to how it's 00:08:27.720 --> 00:08:29.800 portrayed in popular culture. Right, because 00:08:29.800 --> 00:08:32.179 when you hear the term weather modification, 00:08:32.820 --> 00:08:34.519 imaginations run straight to science fiction. 00:08:34.860 --> 00:08:37.259 You know, machines generating storms out of thin 00:08:37.259 --> 00:08:40.120 air. But the actual science of cloud seeding 00:08:40.120 --> 00:08:43.379 is highly specific. It's narrow in scope, and 00:08:43.379 --> 00:08:46.100 we've been doing it for decades. So what is it 00:08:46.100 --> 00:08:49.039 fundamentally? It's basically a process of altering 00:08:49.039 --> 00:08:52.019 the microphysics of an existing cloud by introducing 00:08:52.019 --> 00:08:54.639 tiny particles into it. The most common agent 00:08:54.639 --> 00:08:57.419 used is a chemical compound called silver iodide. 00:08:57.700 --> 00:09:01.580 Silver iodide? Why that specific chemical? Because 00:09:01.580 --> 00:09:03.919 its crystalline structure is remarkably similar 00:09:03.919 --> 00:09:06.440 to the structure of natural ice. Oh, I see. And 00:09:06.440 --> 00:09:08.039 that structure is the key to the whole thing. 00:09:08.100 --> 00:09:11.080 Yeah, because inside a developing cloud, water 00:09:11.080 --> 00:09:13.820 droplets often stay in a liquid state, even when 00:09:13.820 --> 00:09:15.840 the temperature drops way below freezing. We 00:09:15.840 --> 00:09:18.480 call that supercooled liquid water. Right. So 00:09:18.480 --> 00:09:20.659 in order for that supercooled water to actually 00:09:20.659 --> 00:09:23.279 transition into a solid state, to freeze into 00:09:23.279 --> 00:09:26.259 an ice crystal, grow into a snowflake, and fall 00:09:26.259 --> 00:09:29.100 out of the cloud, It needs a nucleus. It needs 00:09:29.100 --> 00:09:31.980 a tiny particle to grab onto like dust or sea 00:09:31.980 --> 00:09:34.700 salt or in this case silver iodide. Yeah, needs 00:09:34.700 --> 00:09:37.799 a foundation. So meteorologists inject silver 00:09:37.799 --> 00:09:41.399 iodide flares into the updraft of a cloud. They 00:09:41.399 --> 00:09:43.379 do this either using aircraft flying through 00:09:43.379 --> 00:09:47.179 the storm or ground -based generators on mountainsides. 00:09:48.120 --> 00:09:50.559 So they are introducing artificial ice nuclei 00:09:50.559 --> 00:09:53.480 into the system. And then those supercooled water 00:09:53.480 --> 00:09:56.120 droplets rapidly freeze onto the silver iodide 00:09:56.120 --> 00:09:58.419 particles. As they freeze, they grow heavier 00:09:58.419 --> 00:10:00.899 and eventually they overcome the updraft velocity 00:10:00.899 --> 00:10:03.399 and fall to the surface as rain or snow. But 00:10:03.399 --> 00:10:05.539 the reality of what this achieves is pretty limited, 00:10:05.840 --> 00:10:09.360 right? I mean, NOAA, which is NOAA, the National 00:10:09.360 --> 00:10:11.740 Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the 00:10:11.740 --> 00:10:14.100 Government Accountability Office, they say the 00:10:14.100 --> 00:10:16.480 realistic uses for this are very modest. Very 00:10:16.480 --> 00:10:19.080 modest. It's mostly used to just marginally enhance 00:10:19.080 --> 00:10:21.879 precipitation over specific drought -stricken 00:10:21.879 --> 00:10:24.519 watersheds, or over mountain ranges to build 00:10:24.519 --> 00:10:26.879 up the winter snowpack. And agricultural regions 00:10:26.879 --> 00:10:28.960 use it too, right, for hail? Yeah, to suppress 00:10:28.960 --> 00:10:31.440 large hail. Basically, they seed a thunderstorm 00:10:31.440 --> 00:10:33.600 to create an abundance of small ice particles. 00:10:34.259 --> 00:10:36.360 Those particles compete for the available moisture, 00:10:36.759 --> 00:10:38.879 which prevents the formation of massive, crop 00:10:38.879 --> 00:10:41.360 -destroying hailstones. But the crucial distinction 00:10:41.360 --> 00:10:44.100 here... for you listening is that cloud seeding 00:10:44.100 --> 00:10:47.039 operations are merely attempting to squeeze a 00:10:47.039 --> 00:10:49.039 fractional amount of additional moisture out 00:10:49.039 --> 00:10:52.120 of a cloud that is already highly conducive to 00:10:52.120 --> 00:10:54.980 producing precipitation. It requires pre -existing 00:10:54.980 --> 00:10:57.980 moisture, pre -existing lift, and pre -existing 00:10:57.980 --> 00:11:01.159 instability. You cannot see the clear blue sky 00:11:01.159 --> 00:11:04.039 and conjure a rainstorm. No, the current legal 00:11:04.039 --> 00:11:06.340 and operational landscape in the U .S. reflects 00:11:06.340 --> 00:11:09.500 this highly constrained utility. Cloud seeding 00:11:09.500 --> 00:11:12.159 programs are actively managed in nine western 00:11:12.159 --> 00:11:15.299 states. Mostly funded by water conservation districts 00:11:15.299 --> 00:11:17.519 and utility companies looking to secure water 00:11:17.519 --> 00:11:20.100 resources. But despite its modest impacts, it 00:11:20.100 --> 00:11:22.419 is highly controversial. Ten different states 00:11:22.419 --> 00:11:24.799 have recently considered or enacted legislation 00:11:24.799 --> 00:11:27.399 to ban the practice entirely. Yeah, Florida, 00:11:27.440 --> 00:11:29.620 for instance, passed legislation that outlawed 00:11:29.620 --> 00:11:31.919 the practice within the state starting in 2025. 00:11:32.419 --> 00:11:34.919 So this legislative and scientific reality highlights 00:11:34.919 --> 00:11:38.059 a massive logical gap in the weather UJITSU proposal. 00:11:38.120 --> 00:11:40.360 It really does. If the current operational limit 00:11:40.360 --> 00:11:42.700 of cloud seeding is essentially wringing out 00:11:42.700 --> 00:11:45.080 a few extra inches of snow over the Sierra Nevada 00:11:45.080 --> 00:11:48.039 mountains under ideal winter conditions, jumping 00:11:48.039 --> 00:11:51.059 from that to steering a category four hurricane 00:11:51.059 --> 00:11:53.879 feels like skipping several chapters in a physics 00:11:53.879 --> 00:11:57.070 textbook. The leap from microphysical cloud alteration 00:11:57.070 --> 00:12:00.970 to synoptic scale system steering is immense. 00:12:01.210 --> 00:12:03.549 Have the study's authors address that? They have. 00:12:03.970 --> 00:12:06.490 They acknowledge the magnitude of this technological 00:12:06.490 --> 00:12:10.049 leap. Abmanu Lal has noted that while their AI 00:12:10.049 --> 00:12:12.309 modeling demonstrates the theoretical viability 00:12:12.309 --> 00:12:14.889 of a targeted disruption, they are still trying 00:12:14.889 --> 00:12:17.389 to figure out the optimal physical mechanism 00:12:17.389 --> 00:12:19.750 to actually deliver that nudge in the real world. 00:12:19.850 --> 00:12:21.429 So they don't even know how they would do it 00:12:21.429 --> 00:12:24.570 yet. Not definitively. He suggested that a massive, 00:12:24.970 --> 00:12:27.850 unprecedentedly dense cloud seeding effort executed 00:12:27.850 --> 00:12:30.950 at the exact right time and place is a potential 00:12:30.950 --> 00:12:33.309 delivery method. But that would require logistical 00:12:33.309 --> 00:12:36.250 coordination and scale way beyond any existing 00:12:36.250 --> 00:12:38.470 program. And this is exactly where the broader 00:12:38.470 --> 00:12:40.970 meteorological and atmospheric science community 00:12:40.970 --> 00:12:43.610 steps in with foundational reservations about 00:12:43.610 --> 00:12:46.009 the physics here. Yeah, I saw Katja Friedrich, 00:12:46.190 --> 00:12:48.009 an atmospheric researcher at the University of 00:12:48.009 --> 00:12:50.710 Colorado. She stated unequivocally that there 00:12:50.710 --> 00:12:53.590 is zero scientific evidence supporting the idea 00:12:53.590 --> 00:12:56.429 that existing cloud seeding technologies can 00:12:56.429 --> 00:12:59.669 be scaled up to modify large -scale severe weather 00:12:59.669 --> 00:13:02.610 systems. Her skepticism is rooted in a concept 00:13:02.610 --> 00:13:06.460 we call large dynamic forcing. Let's unpack large 00:13:06.460 --> 00:13:08.559 dynamic forcing because this is the fundamental 00:13:08.559 --> 00:13:11.200 barrier to the whole jiu -jitsu analogy. It is 00:13:11.200 --> 00:13:13.399 the engine that drives severe weather systems, 00:13:13.779 --> 00:13:16.500 from sprawling thunderstorm complexes all the 00:13:16.500 --> 00:13:19.139 way up to mature hurricanes. And it explains 00:13:19.139 --> 00:13:21.639 why steering these systems is so phenomenally 00:13:21.639 --> 00:13:23.720 difficult. Right, because a hurricane is not 00:13:23.720 --> 00:13:26.299 merely a localized cluster of thunderstorms that 00:13:26.299 --> 00:13:28.679 you can just manipulate by sprinkling chemical 00:13:28.679 --> 00:13:31.620 agents into an updraft. It is a massive heat 00:13:31.620 --> 00:13:34.299 engine operating on a planetary scale. It feeds 00:13:34.299 --> 00:13:36.620 continuous on the thermal energy stored in the 00:13:36.620 --> 00:13:38.919 upper layers of the ocean. Right. To sustain 00:13:38.919 --> 00:13:41.639 a mature tropical cyclone, sea surface temperatures 00:13:41.639 --> 00:13:44.360 typically need to be at or above 80 degrees Fahrenheit. 00:13:44.669 --> 00:13:48.230 And as that warm ocean water evaporates, the 00:13:48.230 --> 00:13:50.850 moisture rises into the atmosphere, it cools, 00:13:51.509 --> 00:13:54.470 and it condenses to form those towering cumulonimbus 00:13:54.470 --> 00:13:56.830 clouds in the eyewall and the rain bands. And 00:13:56.830 --> 00:13:59.529 during that condensation process, the water vapor 00:13:59.529 --> 00:14:02.370 releases latent heat into the surrounding atmosphere. 00:14:02.929 --> 00:14:05.409 That release of latent heat is the critical driver. 00:14:05.629 --> 00:14:08.870 It warms the air aloft, causing it to expand 00:14:08.870 --> 00:14:11.250 and diverge outward from the center of the storm. 00:14:11.490 --> 00:14:13.669 And that divergence aloft is what lowers the 00:14:13.669 --> 00:14:15.649 emissary pressure at the surface. Which then 00:14:15.649 --> 00:14:18.590 draws in more warm moist air from the ocean, 00:14:19.090 --> 00:14:22.690 which spirals inward, rises, condenses, and releases 00:14:22.690 --> 00:14:26.450 even more latent heat. It's a massive self -sustaining 00:14:26.450 --> 00:14:29.289 feedback loop. The sheer volume of energy being 00:14:29.289 --> 00:14:31.710 converted and released is staggering. Furthermore, 00:14:31.870 --> 00:14:33.809 the environmental force is dictating the path 00:14:33.809 --> 00:14:36.789 of that engine. are equally massive. A hurricane 00:14:36.789 --> 00:14:39.649 is steered by the ambient planetary scale wind 00:14:39.649 --> 00:14:41.970 currents embedded in the troposphere. Yeah, it's 00:14:41.970 --> 00:14:44.429 guided by the clockwise flow around semi -permanent 00:14:44.429 --> 00:14:46.710 high pressure systems like the Bermuda high in 00:14:46.710 --> 00:14:49.570 the Atlantic. Or it's pulled and deflected by 00:14:49.570 --> 00:14:51.830 deep atmosphere troughs moving across the mid 00:14:51.830 --> 00:14:54.889 latitudes. And consider the scale of major climate 00:14:54.889 --> 00:14:58.210 patterns, right? Like El Niño, pronounced El 00:14:58.210 --> 00:15:03.399 Niño, or La Niña. An El Niño pattern fundamentally 00:15:03.399 --> 00:15:06.340 alters global atmospheric circulation. It shifts 00:15:06.340 --> 00:15:08.759 the walker circulation across the equatorial 00:15:08.759 --> 00:15:11.820 Pacific, which then cascades into changes in 00:15:11.820 --> 00:15:14.159 the upper level wind shear across the Atlantic 00:15:14.159 --> 00:15:16.580 basin. Which can completely suppress hurricane 00:15:16.580 --> 00:15:19.279 development over an entire ocean. Right. So when 00:15:19.279 --> 00:15:21.700 you are dealing with thermodynamic forces driven 00:15:21.700 --> 00:15:24.860 by ocean basin temperatures and steering currents 00:15:24.860 --> 00:15:28.580 dictated by global phenomena like El Nino, injecting 00:15:28.580 --> 00:15:31.100 silver iodide into a small section of a rain 00:15:31.100 --> 00:15:33.840 band is an infinitesimally small intervention. 00:15:34.059 --> 00:15:36.860 Returning to the Jujitsu. analogy, a tiny localized 00:15:36.860 --> 00:15:39.620 nudge is highly likely to just be absorbed and 00:15:39.620 --> 00:15:41.799 instantly dispersed by the overwhelming energy 00:15:41.799 --> 00:15:44.799 of the storm's large dynamic forcing. It's akin 00:15:44.799 --> 00:15:46.980 to attempting to change the course of a raging 00:15:46.980 --> 00:15:49.659 river by dropping a single pebble into a class 00:15:49.659 --> 00:15:52.279 five rapid. The internal energy of the system 00:15:52.279 --> 00:15:54.899 simply overwhelms the disruption. And the interesting 00:15:54.899 --> 00:15:58.039 thing is we actually possess historical data 00:15:58.039 --> 00:16:01.399 that illustrates this exact discrepancy between 00:16:01.399 --> 00:16:04.450 theoretical modification and physical reality. 00:16:04.750 --> 00:16:06.909 Right. Carl Lam, an associate research scientist 00:16:06.909 --> 00:16:09.190 at Columbia University, pointed out that the 00:16:09.190 --> 00:16:11.750 meteorological community attempted similar interventions 00:16:11.750 --> 00:16:15.110 decades ago. The United States government actively 00:16:15.110 --> 00:16:18.169 tried to use cloud seeding to weaken hurricanes. 00:16:18.450 --> 00:16:21.230 And the effort failed to produce any reliable, 00:16:21.409 --> 00:16:23.509 replicable results. She is referencing Project 00:16:23.509 --> 00:16:26.399 Storm Fury. Storm Fury, yeah. That was a highly 00:16:26.399 --> 00:16:28.580 ambitious federal research initiative, right? 00:16:28.620 --> 00:16:31.179 It ran from the early 1960s through the early 00:16:31.179 --> 00:16:34.200 1980s. And the theory behind storm fury was actually 00:16:34.200 --> 00:16:36.460 grounded in that understanding of latent heat 00:16:36.460 --> 00:16:38.539 we just discussed. So what was their hypothesis? 00:16:38.980 --> 00:16:41.480 They thought that by heavily seeding the first 00:16:41.480 --> 00:16:44.200 rain band situated just outside the hurricane's 00:16:44.200 --> 00:16:46.620 intense inner eye wall, they could induce the 00:16:46.620 --> 00:16:49.419 supercooled water in that outer band to freeze. 00:16:49.559 --> 00:16:52.019 OK, and that freezing process would release a 00:16:52.019 --> 00:16:54.159 massive amount of latent heat in the outer band. 00:16:54.399 --> 00:16:56.820 Right. Which would then stimulate the growth 00:16:56.820 --> 00:16:59.759 of a new wider eye wall that would eventually 00:16:59.759 --> 00:17:02.399 choke off and replace the original tighter eye 00:17:02.399 --> 00:17:04.920 wall. Because the physical rationale was based 00:17:04.920 --> 00:17:07.799 on the conservation of angular momentum. The 00:17:07.799 --> 00:17:10.099 idea was that if you force the storm to develop 00:17:10.099 --> 00:17:13.740 a wider eye, the maximum wind speeds would decrease. 00:17:14.059 --> 00:17:16.220 Like an ice skater throwing their arms outward 00:17:16.220 --> 00:17:19.640 to slow down a rapid spin. Right. So if you expand 00:17:19.640 --> 00:17:21.799 the radius of maximum winds, you theoretically 00:17:21.799 --> 00:17:24.359 drop the storms category and reduce the catastrophic 00:17:24.359 --> 00:17:26.819 wind damage at landfall. And the physics appeared 00:17:26.819 --> 00:17:29.380 entirely sound on a chalkboard. So they actually 00:17:29.380 --> 00:17:32.000 tested it. Oh yeah. The project involved flying 00:17:32.000 --> 00:17:35.039 heavily modified military aircraft directly into 00:17:35.039 --> 00:17:37.220 monstrous hurricanes churning in the Gulf of 00:17:37.220 --> 00:17:39.660 Mexico and the Atlantic. To deploy thousands 00:17:39.660 --> 00:17:42.359 of silver iodide flare. Directly into the storms. 00:17:42.640 --> 00:17:45.599 And in a few early instances, most notably Hurricane 00:17:45.599 --> 00:17:48.799 Debbie in 1969, the wind speeds did actually 00:17:48.799 --> 00:17:51.059 decrease following the seating runs. Which initially 00:17:51.059 --> 00:17:54.539 fueled massive optimism. It did. But as the project 00:17:54.539 --> 00:17:57.759 continued and our atmospheric observational technology 00:17:57.759 --> 00:18:00.579 improved throughout the 1970s, the results became 00:18:00.579 --> 00:18:04.400 entirely inconclusive. And decades later, meteorologists 00:18:04.400 --> 00:18:07.400 identified exactly why the hypothesis failed 00:18:07.400 --> 00:18:09.660 in practice. There were two major physical flaws. 00:18:09.950 --> 00:18:13.049 First, comprehensive data collected from aircraft 00:18:13.049 --> 00:18:15.750 penetrating the storms revealed that hurricanes 00:18:15.750 --> 00:18:18.410 actually contain very little supercooled liquid 00:18:18.410 --> 00:18:20.670 water to begin with. Because the updrafts in 00:18:20.670 --> 00:18:22.990 a hurricane are generally weaker than the violent 00:18:22.990 --> 00:18:26.109 updrafts in, say, a continental severe thunderstorm, 00:18:26.349 --> 00:18:28.690 right? So the moisture has time to freeze naturally. 00:18:28.869 --> 00:18:31.170 Exactly. The storms are mostly composed of ice 00:18:31.170 --> 00:18:33.650 crystals already, meaning the silver iodide had 00:18:33.650 --> 00:18:36.029 very little supercooled water left to act upon. 00:18:36.170 --> 00:18:39.519 And the second flaw? More importantly, Meteorologists 00:18:39.519 --> 00:18:42.160 discovered a natural phenomenon known as eyewall 00:18:42.160 --> 00:18:44.890 replacement cycles. Which are entirely natural, 00:18:45.250 --> 00:18:47.390 internally driven processes that occur frequently 00:18:47.390 --> 00:18:50.289 in mature, intense hurricanes. The storm will 00:18:50.289 --> 00:18:52.970 spontaneously form a secondary outer eye wall 00:18:52.970 --> 00:18:55.630 that slowly contracts. That cuts off the moisture 00:18:55.630 --> 00:18:58.170 inflow to the inner eye wall, causing the inner 00:18:58.170 --> 00:19:01.049 eye to collapse. And during this natural cycle, 00:19:01.250 --> 00:19:04.069 the storm's wind field expands and its maximum 00:19:04.069 --> 00:19:07.049 wind speeds temporarily decrease. Which is exactly 00:19:07.049 --> 00:19:08.990 what the storm theory scientists thought they 00:19:08.990 --> 00:19:10.849 were artificially triggering with the silver 00:19:10.849 --> 00:19:13.319 iodide. Oh, wow. So they were just observing 00:19:13.319 --> 00:19:15.759 a natural process and taking credit for it. Pretty 00:19:15.759 --> 00:19:19.180 much. This historical reality brings up the absolute 00:19:19.180 --> 00:19:21.339 core issue in weather modification research, 00:19:21.980 --> 00:19:25.220 which is natural atmospheric variability. Right. 00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:28.539 If you fly an aircraft into a hurricane, deploy 00:19:28.539 --> 00:19:31.819 a payload of silver iodide, and observe the maximum 00:19:31.819 --> 00:19:34.460 sustained winds drop by 15 % over the next 12 00:19:34.460 --> 00:19:37.650 hours, How do you definitively prove your seating 00:19:37.650 --> 00:19:40.289 operation caused that drop? You really can't. 00:19:40.390 --> 00:19:42.529 What if the storm simply ingested a localized 00:19:42.529 --> 00:19:45.309 pocket of dry Saharan air? Or what if it experienced 00:19:45.309 --> 00:19:48.069 a subtle undetected increase in vertical wind 00:19:48.069 --> 00:19:50.289 shear? Or what if it was just undergoing a natural 00:19:50.289 --> 00:19:52.390 eyewall replacement cycle that would have happened 00:19:52.390 --> 00:19:55.569 regardless of human presence? Carl Lamb emphasized 00:19:55.569 --> 00:19:58.910 this exact complication. The atmosphere is an 00:19:58.910 --> 00:20:01.869 incredibly noisy, chaotic environment. It is 00:20:01.869 --> 00:20:05.690 profoundly difficult to separate the signal of 00:20:05.690 --> 00:20:08.890 a human intervention from the overwhelming noise 00:20:08.890 --> 00:20:12.289 of the atmosphere's natural variability. It's 00:20:12.289 --> 00:20:15.950 remarkably similar to taking a new experimental 00:20:15.950 --> 00:20:19.069 vitamin to cure a cold. If you take the vitamin 00:20:19.069 --> 00:20:21.430 on Tuesday and you wake up feeling better on 00:20:21.430 --> 00:20:24.609 Friday, it's incredibly tempting to credit the 00:20:24.609 --> 00:20:27.980 vitamin. Sure. But it's almost impossible to 00:20:27.980 --> 00:20:30.380 separate the intervention from what your immune 00:20:30.380 --> 00:20:32.859 system, or in this case, the thermodynamic engine 00:20:32.859 --> 00:20:35.119 of the atmosphere, was going to do anyway. In 00:20:35.119 --> 00:20:37.619 meteorology, you cannot run a clean control group 00:20:37.619 --> 00:20:40.180 on a live hurricane. No. You can't rewind the 00:20:40.180 --> 00:20:42.700 atmosphere, remove the silver iodide, and observe 00:20:42.700 --> 00:20:45.000 what the storm would have done if left completely 00:20:45.000 --> 00:20:48.240 alone. That historical context is so vital. But 00:20:48.240 --> 00:20:50.339 let's play devil's advocate for a moment. OK. 00:20:50.380 --> 00:20:52.519 Let's operate under the assumption that the authors 00:20:52.519 --> 00:20:56.049 of the PLOS water study are correct about the 00:20:56.049 --> 00:20:58.670 future of technology. OK, let's assume AI, quantum 00:20:58.670 --> 00:21:01.089 computing, and data collection advance to a point 00:21:01.089 --> 00:21:03.430 where they can perfectly model the fluid dynamics 00:21:03.430 --> 00:21:06.109 of the atmosphere. They find the exact jujitsu 00:21:06.109 --> 00:21:08.490 pressure point, deploy the perfect intervention, 00:21:08.910 --> 00:21:11.789 and guarantee a 300 -mile shift in a hurricane's 00:21:11.789 --> 00:21:14.880 track. So humanity successfully overcomes the 00:21:14.880 --> 00:21:18.019 physics of large dynamic forcing. Right. But 00:21:18.019 --> 00:21:20.940 if we do that, we instantly crash into a completely 00:21:20.940 --> 00:21:24.180 different, arguably more insurmountable barrier. 00:21:24.400 --> 00:21:28.240 The ethical and legal hurricane? Yes. Let's re 00:21:28.240 --> 00:21:30.960 -examine the study's primary hypothetical, Superstorm 00:21:30.960 --> 00:21:33.690 Sandy. OK, so the theoretical claim is that with 00:21:33.690 --> 00:21:36.710 a precise AI calculated nudge, they could have 00:21:36.710 --> 00:21:39.650 shifted Sandy's track 300 miles, successfully 00:21:39.650 --> 00:21:42.230 steering the storm surge away from a direct hit 00:21:42.230 --> 00:21:44.890 on New York City. And given the population density, 00:21:45.250 --> 00:21:47.589 the subway system, the vulnerable infrastructure, 00:21:48.009 --> 00:21:50.250 New York is uniquely susceptible to catastrophic 00:21:50.250 --> 00:21:52.519 flooding. So shifting that storm successfully 00:21:52.519 --> 00:21:54.859 protects millions of people in the New York metropolitan 00:21:54.859 --> 00:21:57.559 area and saves billions in infrastructure. It 00:21:57.559 --> 00:22:00.259 does. But weather modification on a synoptic 00:22:00.259 --> 00:22:03.640 scale is a zero sum game. A massive potent weather 00:22:03.640 --> 00:22:05.960 system containing millions of tons of water and 00:22:05.960 --> 00:22:08.559 staggering kinetic energy does not just evaporate 00:22:08.559 --> 00:22:10.299 because you altered its steering currents. Right. 00:22:10.299 --> 00:22:12.859 It has to go somewhere. If you shift a system 00:22:12.859 --> 00:22:15.880 like Sandy 300 miles away from New York City 00:22:15.880 --> 00:22:18.140 is going to maintain its structure and slam into 00:22:18.140 --> 00:22:20.200 the coastline of New England instead. You are 00:22:20.200 --> 00:22:22.559 no longer engaging in passive forecasting. You 00:22:22.559 --> 00:22:25.240 are actively, deliberately choosing which coastline 00:22:25.240 --> 00:22:27.420 absorbs the impact. You are sitting in a room 00:22:27.420 --> 00:22:29.859 deciding which coastal towns get wiped off the 00:22:29.859 --> 00:22:32.299 map, whose homes are submerged in a 12 -foot 00:22:32.299 --> 00:22:35.299 storm surge, and whose lives are placed in severe 00:22:35.299 --> 00:22:37.700 jeopardy. This is the ultimate ethical dilemma. 00:22:37.940 --> 00:22:40.200 You are taking the unpredictable, indifferent 00:22:40.200 --> 00:22:42.880 chaos of a natural disaster and applying human 00:22:42.880 --> 00:22:47.029 agency to it. A director emeritus in the Department 00:22:47.029 --> 00:22:49.269 of Climate Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences 00:22:49.269 --> 00:22:52.289 at the University of Illinois captured the insurmountable 00:22:52.289 --> 00:22:55.369 scale of this problem. What did he say? He argues 00:22:55.369 --> 00:22:58.230 that major storms involve incredibly complex 00:22:58.230 --> 00:23:00.869 atmospheric flows over vast oceanic regions, 00:23:01.130 --> 00:23:04.369 evolving in nonlinear ways. He points out that 00:23:04.369 --> 00:23:06.630 even if physicists mastered the mechanics to 00:23:06.630 --> 00:23:09.670 reliably move these storms, the political, international, 00:23:09.809 --> 00:23:12.349 and legal front would be so immense that the 00:23:12.349 --> 00:23:14.599 technology would likely never be deployed. The 00:23:14.599 --> 00:23:17.440 legal ramifications alone are enough to paralyze 00:23:17.440 --> 00:23:21.259 any government agency. Imagine a scenario where 00:23:21.259 --> 00:23:24.859 a federal agency, let's say NOAA or the EPA, 00:23:25.400 --> 00:23:27.900 were granted the operational authority to manage 00:23:27.900 --> 00:23:30.259 this weather steering program. Okay, picture 00:23:30.259 --> 00:23:33.650 this. A category four hurricane is bearing down 00:23:33.650 --> 00:23:37.230 on Miami. The agency runs the AI models, deploys 00:23:37.230 --> 00:23:39.849 the intervention, and successfully nudges the 00:23:39.849 --> 00:23:42.990 storm away from Florida. But the new track directs 00:23:42.990 --> 00:23:45.210 the storm directly into Savannah, Georgia. The 00:23:45.210 --> 00:23:47.609 ensuing litigation would be unprecedented in 00:23:47.609 --> 00:23:49.690 human history. The state of Georgia would have 00:23:49.690 --> 00:23:52.230 grounds to sue the federal government for intentionally 00:23:52.230 --> 00:23:55.130 directing a catastrophic, deadly disaster onto 00:23:55.130 --> 00:23:57.150 its citizens. Insurance companies holding policies 00:23:57.150 --> 00:23:59.369 in Georgia would face insolvency and would inevitably 00:23:59.369 --> 00:24:01.940 sue the operator. agencies for massive liability. 00:24:02.180 --> 00:24:04.200 The concept of sovereign immunity would be tested 00:24:04.200 --> 00:24:06.359 in ways the legal system has never encountered. 00:24:06.660 --> 00:24:09.359 And that scenario only considers domestic borders. 00:24:09.579 --> 00:24:11.720 The geopolitical implications are significantly 00:24:11.720 --> 00:24:14.839 more volatile. What happens if a rapidly intensifying 00:24:14.839 --> 00:24:17.259 hurricane is moving through the central Gulf 00:24:17.259 --> 00:24:20.319 of Mexico and the United States decides to nudge 00:24:20.319 --> 00:24:22.940 the system westward to protect the vulnerable 00:24:22.940 --> 00:24:26.019 refineries along the Texas coastline? Well, if 00:24:26.019 --> 00:24:28.279 that nudge inadvertently causes the steering 00:24:28.279 --> 00:24:31.160 currents to collapse, stalling the storm and 00:24:31.160 --> 00:24:34.200 dumping 40 inches of rain over vulnerable regions 00:24:34.200 --> 00:24:38.299 in Mexico or Cuba, you have initiated an international 00:24:38.299 --> 00:24:41.359 incident. You are instantly dealing with accusations 00:24:41.359 --> 00:24:43.579 of weaponizing the weather even if the intent 00:24:43.579 --> 00:24:46.079 was purely defensive. There are already international 00:24:46.079 --> 00:24:49.019 treaties in place. like the Environmental Modification 00:24:49.019 --> 00:24:51.980 Convention, designed specifically to prohibit 00:24:51.980 --> 00:24:54.400 the hostile use of environmental modification 00:24:54.400 --> 00:24:56.880 techniques. The geopolitical instability caused 00:24:56.880 --> 00:24:59.640 by one nation unilaterally deciding where a hurricane 00:24:59.640 --> 00:25:02.539 makes landfall is staggering. It is. It really 00:25:02.539 --> 00:25:04.700 is worth noting the perspective of the researchers 00:25:04.700 --> 00:25:07.519 on this issue, though. The study authors, including 00:25:07.519 --> 00:25:10.519 Upmanu Lal, explicitly state that their current 00:25:10.519 --> 00:25:13.079 focus is entirely on developing the mathematical, 00:25:13.599 --> 00:25:16.119 scientific, and engineering capacity to see if 00:25:16.119 --> 00:25:18.380 the theory holds up. They acknowledge the ethical 00:25:18.380 --> 00:25:21.339 frameworks, legal liabilities, and control issues 00:25:21.339 --> 00:25:25.059 are massive hurdles. But they maintain that their 00:25:25.059 --> 00:25:28.319 role as scientists is to establish the physical 00:25:28.319 --> 00:25:30.680 possibilities first, leaving the ethical and 00:25:30.680 --> 00:25:33.440 policy questions for lawmakers and ethicists 00:25:33.440 --> 00:25:35.839 to resolve in the future. I have to strongly 00:25:35.839 --> 00:25:37.680 challenge that dismissal, though, because in 00:25:37.680 --> 00:25:40.700 the realm of applied meteorology, you really 00:25:40.700 --> 00:25:43.319 cannot sever the scientific research from its 00:25:43.319 --> 00:25:45.660 real -world impact. Yeah, the two are inherently 00:25:45.660 --> 00:25:48.289 linked. The stated justification for this entire 00:25:48.289 --> 00:25:50.369 study is the fact that traditional defensive 00:25:50.369 --> 00:25:52.910 infrastructure is failing to protect highly populated 00:25:52.910 --> 00:25:55.549 areas. The goal of the technology is to save 00:25:55.549 --> 00:25:59.309 major cities. But that goal inherently and unavoidably 00:25:59.309 --> 00:26:01.630 requires redirecting that destruction toward 00:26:01.630 --> 00:26:05.069 less populated or simply different areas. The 00:26:05.069 --> 00:26:07.250 ethical dilemma isn't an unforeseen side effect. 00:26:07.369 --> 00:26:09.869 It is the core mechanic of the proposed solution. 00:26:10.140 --> 00:26:12.680 You can't just invent a technology designed to 00:26:12.680 --> 00:26:15.119 divert a natural disaster onto a new target and 00:26:15.119 --> 00:26:16.759 simply say that the legal department will figure 00:26:16.759 --> 00:26:19.759 out the ethics later. The capability itself forces 00:26:19.759 --> 00:26:23.190 the ethical crisis. And this intense anxiety 00:26:23.190 --> 00:26:25.730 surrounding the idea of humans playing God with 00:26:25.730 --> 00:26:28.230 the atmosphere, it isn't merely a theoretical 00:26:28.230 --> 00:26:30.890 debate reserved for a hypothetical future where 00:26:30.890 --> 00:26:33.349 AI reaches maturity. No, it is a present -day 00:26:33.349 --> 00:26:36.450 crisis deeply affecting the meteorological community. 00:26:36.609 --> 00:26:39.410 The very fact that credible scientists are publishing 00:26:39.410 --> 00:26:42.109 peer -reviewed literature about theoretical frameworks 00:26:42.109 --> 00:26:45.210 for steering hurricanes feeds directly into one 00:26:45.210 --> 00:26:47.609 of the most exhausting challenges modern broadcast 00:26:47.609 --> 00:26:50.890 and operational meteorologists face today. rampant 00:26:50.890 --> 00:26:53.369 spread of weather modification misinformation. 00:26:53.609 --> 00:26:56.589 We witnessed this phenomenon. Every single time 00:26:56.589 --> 00:26:59.109 a major weather disaster strikes anywhere on 00:26:59.109 --> 00:27:02.109 the globe. Real meteorological research, theoretical 00:27:02.109 --> 00:27:04.450 modeling, and routine cloud seeding operations 00:27:04.450 --> 00:27:06.809 are routinely stripped of their nuance, taken 00:27:06.809 --> 00:27:09.569 completely out of context, and weaponized into 00:27:09.569 --> 00:27:11.970 viral online conspiracy theories that spread 00:27:11.970 --> 00:27:14.769 faster than the actual weather warnings. We can 00:27:14.769 --> 00:27:17.509 observe this dynamic clearly in two recent, highly 00:27:17.509 --> 00:27:20.609 publicized, and tragic events. Consider the catastrophic 00:27:20.609 --> 00:27:23.930 Texas floods of 2025. That was a devastating 00:27:23.930 --> 00:27:27.369 synoptic setup. It was. An anomalous amount of 00:27:27.369 --> 00:27:29.549 atmospheric moisture was transported over the 00:27:29.549 --> 00:27:32.829 region, resulting in massive rainfall rates over 00:27:32.829 --> 00:27:35.670 a very short period. The ensuing flash flooding 00:27:35.670 --> 00:27:39.289 led to rapid widespread inundation, tragically 00:27:39.289 --> 00:27:41.369 resulting in the deaths of dozens of people, 00:27:41.789 --> 00:27:43.710 including many children who are caught in the 00:27:43.710 --> 00:27:47.150 rapidly rising waters. The communal grief, shock 00:27:47.150 --> 00:27:49.569 and desperate search for answers following an 00:27:49.569 --> 00:27:52.549 event of that magnitude are profound. But almost 00:27:52.549 --> 00:27:55.470 immediately after the waters began to rise, viral 00:27:55.470 --> 00:27:58.670 claims exploded across various social media platforms 00:27:58.670 --> 00:28:01.609 alleging that a nearby routine cloud seeding 00:28:01.609 --> 00:28:04.289 operation conducted by a local water district 00:28:04.289 --> 00:28:06.809 actually caused the catastrophic rainfall. And 00:28:06.809 --> 00:28:08.829 meteorologists and emergency management officials 00:28:08.829 --> 00:28:11.029 were forced to divert critical time and resources 00:28:11.029 --> 00:28:14.049 during an ongoing recovery effort just to debunk 00:28:14.049 --> 00:28:16.650 these claims. Experts across the field had to 00:28:16.650 --> 00:28:19.309 repeatedly confirm that there was zero empirical 00:28:19.309 --> 00:28:21.900 evidence linking any local seeding. operations 00:28:21.900 --> 00:28:24.599 to the synoptic scale flooding. They had to publicly 00:28:24.599 --> 00:28:27.500 reiterate the scientific reality of large dynamic 00:28:27.500 --> 00:28:29.880 forcing that we discussed earlier. Because a 00:28:29.880 --> 00:28:33.299 routine glaciogenic cloud seeding operation designed 00:28:33.299 --> 00:28:35.640 to marginally enhance rainfall from an existing 00:28:35.640 --> 00:28:38.859 system physically lacks the capacity to generate 00:28:38.859 --> 00:28:41.960 the massive atmospheric moisture transport, the 00:28:41.960 --> 00:28:45.099 intense vertical lift, and the sheer thermodynamic 00:28:45.099 --> 00:28:48.599 energy required to create a stationary catastrophic 00:28:48.599 --> 00:28:51.509 flood of that magnitude. A virtually identical 00:28:51.509 --> 00:28:53.789 situation unfolded on the international stage, 00:28:54.029 --> 00:28:57.730 too. Right. In April 2024, the United Arab Emirates 00:28:57.730 --> 00:29:01.029 experienced a historic record shattering rainfall 00:29:01.029 --> 00:29:03.289 event. The system dumped over a year's worth 00:29:03.289 --> 00:29:05.730 of rain on the region in a matter of hours, causing 00:29:05.730 --> 00:29:08.430 massive unprecedented flooding in Dubai. The 00:29:08.430 --> 00:29:11.390 imagery of modern multi -lane highways completely 00:29:11.390 --> 00:29:14.089 submerged underwater dominated global news cycles. 00:29:14.170 --> 00:29:16.609 And instantly. Identical conspiracy theories 00:29:16.609 --> 00:29:19.250 saturated social media explicitly blaming the 00:29:19.250 --> 00:29:21.730 flooding on cloud seeding. Because the UAE does 00:29:21.730 --> 00:29:24.529 maintain a well -publicized active cloud seeding 00:29:24.529 --> 00:29:26.890 program to combat their severe regional water 00:29:26.890 --> 00:29:29.210 scarcity. Since the public was generally aware 00:29:29.210 --> 00:29:31.849 of this program, theorists immediately correlated 00:29:31.849 --> 00:29:33.769 the existence of the program with the extreme 00:29:33.769 --> 00:29:36.529 weather event. However, Atmospheric scientists 00:29:36.529 --> 00:29:39.309 and regional officials unequivocally confirmed 00:29:39.309 --> 00:29:42.650 that no seeding aircraft were deployed and no 00:29:42.650 --> 00:29:45.210 seeding missions occurred prior to or during 00:29:45.210 --> 00:29:48.269 the severe weather outbreak. The actual meteorological 00:29:48.269 --> 00:29:51.349 cause of the Dubai flooding was extensively documented 00:29:51.349 --> 00:29:54.029 and forecasted days in advance. It was driven 00:29:54.029 --> 00:29:57.950 by a slow moving deep upper level cut off low 00:29:57.950 --> 00:30:01.329 pressure system interacting with a highly anomalous 00:30:01.329 --> 00:30:04.250 surge of tropical moisture moving across the 00:30:04.250 --> 00:30:06.680 Arabian. peninsula. It was a completely natural 00:30:06.680 --> 00:30:09.660 synoptically driven weather system exacerbated 00:30:09.660 --> 00:30:11.819 by the background reality of a warming climate. 00:30:11.960 --> 00:30:14.019 Which fundamentally allows the atmosphere to 00:30:14.019 --> 00:30:16.720 hold and transport higher volumes of water vapor. 00:30:16.920 --> 00:30:18.839 Yet the narrative that a government aircraft 00:30:18.839 --> 00:30:21.799 had manually flooded the city spread exponentially 00:30:21.799 --> 00:30:24.660 faster than the actual thermodynamic explanation. 00:30:25.000 --> 00:30:27.400 Observing this repeated pattern really forces 00:30:27.400 --> 00:30:29.880 us to examine the psychological drivers behind 00:30:29.880 --> 00:30:33.019 the misinformation. Why do these specific conspiracy 00:30:33.019 --> 00:30:35.539 theories find such fertile ground? Why is the 00:30:35.539 --> 00:30:37.799 listener constantly seeing these specific claims 00:30:37.799 --> 00:30:40.460 algorithmically promoted on their timelines after 00:30:40.460 --> 00:30:42.980 every severe weather event? It fundamentally 00:30:42.980 --> 00:30:45.720 comes down to the human struggle between control 00:30:45.720 --> 00:30:49.480 and chaos. It is psychologically terrifying for 00:30:49.480 --> 00:30:52.279 the human brain to truly internalize that the 00:30:52.279 --> 00:30:55.599 atmosphere is a wildly chaotic fluid dynamics 00:30:55.599 --> 00:30:58.079 problem. It is deeply unsettling to accept that 00:30:58.079 --> 00:31:00.559 a category five hurricane can wipe out a vibrant 00:31:00.559 --> 00:31:04.019 coastal city simply due to a random unlucky alignment 00:31:04.019 --> 00:31:07.200 of oceanic heat content, lack of wind shear and 00:31:07.200 --> 00:31:09.339 upper level steering currents. It is terrifying 00:31:09.339 --> 00:31:11.480 to accept that the baseline of these natural 00:31:11.339 --> 00:31:14.279 extremes is shifting in unpredictable ways. For 00:31:14.279 --> 00:31:16.839 many people it is actually deeply psychologically 00:31:16.839 --> 00:31:19.400 comforting to believe that a secretive organization 00:31:19.400 --> 00:31:22.680 or a shadow government agency is manually controlling 00:31:22.680 --> 00:31:25.180 the weather. Because if a human being is controlling 00:31:25.180 --> 00:31:27.880 the storm it means the universe isn't random. 00:31:28.240 --> 00:31:30.700 Means there's a specific tangible villain to 00:31:30.700 --> 00:31:33.579 blame rather than facing the cold indifferent 00:31:33.579 --> 00:31:36.220 and uncontrollable physics of nature. The human 00:31:36.220 --> 00:31:38.920 brain relies heavily on pattern recognition and 00:31:38.920 --> 00:31:42.000 the assignment of agency. When confronted with 00:31:42.000 --> 00:31:44.799 an incomprehensible natural disaster, assigning 00:31:44.799 --> 00:31:48.019 deliberate blame to a human actor, even a malevolent 00:31:48.019 --> 00:31:51.259 one, can paradoxically feel safer and more manageable 00:31:51.259 --> 00:31:53.880 than accepting our absolute vulnerability to 00:31:53.880 --> 00:31:56.990 planetary -scale natural forces. recognizing 00:31:56.990 --> 00:31:59.349 that psychological vulnerability brings up an 00:31:59.349 --> 00:32:01.869 incredibly difficult question for the scientific 00:32:01.869 --> 00:32:04.430 community. Right. When peer -reviewed literature 00:32:04.430 --> 00:32:07.450 like the PLOS water paper we are analyzing today 00:32:07.450 --> 00:32:10.410 is published, publicly discussing the theoretical 00:32:10.410 --> 00:32:13.710 possibility of steering hurricanes using AI and 00:32:13.710 --> 00:32:16.589 cloud seeding technologies, doesn't that inherently, 00:32:16.849 --> 00:32:19.349 albeit accidentally, provide ammunition to the 00:32:19.349 --> 00:32:21.829 very conspiracy theorists who are already claiming 00:32:21.829 --> 00:32:23.940 that the government is actively doing it? It 00:32:23.940 --> 00:32:26.140 creates an incredibly precarious communication 00:32:26.140 --> 00:32:28.740 tightrope for the entire scientific community. 00:32:28.920 --> 00:32:31.559 On one side of the balance, the fundamental integrity 00:32:31.559 --> 00:32:34.819 of the scientific method requires open, unhindered 00:32:34.819 --> 00:32:37.640 inquiry. Researchers must have the freedom to 00:32:37.640 --> 00:32:41.099 explore theoretical boundaries, run complex simulations 00:32:41.099 --> 00:32:44.759 on supercomputers, and ask profound what -if 00:32:44.759 --> 00:32:47.500 questions without being constrained by the fear 00:32:47.500 --> 00:32:50.000 of how the general public or bad actors might 00:32:50.000 --> 00:32:59.539 misinterpret their data. progress. But on the 00:32:59.539 --> 00:33:02.140 other side of the balance, scientists, universities, 00:33:02.319 --> 00:33:04.880 and institutions must practice radical clarity 00:33:04.880 --> 00:33:07.319 in their public communication. They must rigorously 00:33:07.319 --> 00:33:09.400 and repeatedly distinguish between a theoretical 00:33:09.400 --> 00:33:12.160 computer model simulating an event in a laboratory 00:33:12.160 --> 00:33:14.859 and the physical operational capabilities that 00:33:14.859 --> 00:33:17.160 actually exist in the real world. We have to 00:33:17.160 --> 00:33:19.559 continually emphasize that running a simulation 00:33:19.559 --> 00:33:22.480 on a supercomputer that demonstrates a 300 -mile 00:33:22.480 --> 00:33:25.400 shift in a hurricane's track is entirely disconnected 00:33:25.400 --> 00:33:27.640 from actually possessing the physical delivery 00:33:27.500 --> 00:33:30.759 mechanisms, the thermodynamic power, or the legal 00:33:30.759 --> 00:33:33.200 authorization to fly a fleet of aircraft into 00:33:33.200 --> 00:33:35.799 a category five store and physically alter its 00:33:35.799 --> 00:33:38.240 trajectory. Maintaining that precise distinction 00:33:38.240 --> 00:33:41.299 is critical. Operational meteorologists are frequently 00:33:41.299 --> 00:33:43.359 caught in the crossfire. They are tasked with 00:33:43.359 --> 00:33:45.799 explaining the fascinating theoretical advancements 00:33:45.799 --> 00:33:48.160 in atmosphere science and artificial intelligence 00:33:48.160 --> 00:33:51.039 while simultaneously fighting a rearguard action 00:33:51.039 --> 00:33:54.279 to debunk the weaponized misinformation that 00:33:54.279 --> 00:33:56.660 willfully conflates that theoretical science 00:33:56.660 --> 00:33:59.500 with operational reality. It is a relentless 00:33:59.500 --> 00:34:02.660 battle for empirical truth within a very noisy, 00:34:03.279 --> 00:34:05.859 chaotic information ecosystem. And it leaves 00:34:05.859 --> 00:34:08.059 the meteorological community in a fascinating 00:34:08.380 --> 00:34:11.500 deeply unsettling position regarding the future 00:34:11.500 --> 00:34:14.579 of weather forecasting, mitigation, and theoretical 00:34:14.579 --> 00:34:17.500 modification. It really does. So we want to leave 00:34:17.500 --> 00:34:19.440 you with a final thought to mull over as you 00:34:19.440 --> 00:34:21.619 watch the weather evolve this week. We are currently 00:34:21.619 --> 00:34:24.219 living through an era of exponential technological 00:34:24.219 --> 00:34:27.320 growth. The artificial intelligence models analyzing 00:34:27.320 --> 00:34:30.519 our atmospheric data are becoming sharper, faster, 00:34:30.739 --> 00:34:33.119 and more precise with every passing hurricane 00:34:33.119 --> 00:34:36.099 season. If the theoretical physics proposed by 00:34:36.099 --> 00:34:39.219 researchers today continue to evolve, we might 00:34:39.219 --> 00:34:42.039 very well reach a point in the near future where 00:34:42.039 --> 00:34:45.019 a supercomputer can output the exact mathematical 00:34:45.019 --> 00:34:48.139 solution required to perfectly nudge a massive 00:34:48.139 --> 00:34:51.429 storm. The AI might provide the exact atmospheric 00:34:51.429 --> 00:34:54.409 coordinates, the exact temporal window, and the 00:34:54.409 --> 00:34:57.289 exact physical mechanism to shift a landfalling 00:34:57.289 --> 00:35:00.309 hurricane, theoretically possessing the blueprint 00:35:00.309 --> 00:35:02.789 to save thousands of lives in a major coastal 00:35:02.789 --> 00:35:05.550 city. But because of the insurmountable legal 00:35:05.550 --> 00:35:09.469 liabilities, the staggering geopolitical nightmare 00:35:09.469 --> 00:35:12.670 of actively choosing which community absorbs 00:35:12.670 --> 00:35:14.900 the redirected impact. And the sheer physical 00:35:14.900 --> 00:35:17.519 limitations of actually deploying that intervention 00:35:17.519 --> 00:35:20.219 against the massive dynamic forcing of the atmosphere. 00:35:20.460 --> 00:35:22.579 Humanity might find itself utterly paralyzed 00:35:22.579 --> 00:35:24.840 to act on that knowledge. Well, possessing the 00:35:24.840 --> 00:35:26.940 exact mathematical blueprint to save a city, 00:35:27.400 --> 00:35:29.559 while lacking the physical capability or the 00:35:29.559 --> 00:35:32.280 ethical framework to execute it, become the ultimate 00:35:32.280 --> 00:35:35.019 meteorological tragedy of the 21st century. It's 00:35:35.019 --> 00:35:36.300 something we'll all have to face eventually. 00:35:36.510 --> 00:35:39.010 If you want to keep exploring the fascinating, 00:35:39.010 --> 00:35:42.010 chaotic world of atmospheric science, extreme 00:35:42.010 --> 00:35:44.469 weather, and the forecasting technology that 00:35:44.469 --> 00:35:47.090 keeps us safe, make sure to follow Rob Jones 00:35:47.090 --> 00:35:50.130 on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, and Facebook for 00:35:50.130 --> 00:35:53.150 daily weather updates and deeper insights. Also, 00:35:53.269 --> 00:35:55.469 please take a second to like, follow, comment, 00:35:55.670 --> 00:35:57.969 and rate the podcast on whatever platform you 00:35:57.969 --> 00:36:00.510 are using right now. It really helps the algorithm 00:36:00.510 --> 00:36:03.210 and allows us to keep bringing you these in -depth 00:36:03.210 --> 00:36:05.070 conversations. It really does help. You've been 00:36:05.070 --> 00:36:07.090 listening to Meteorology Matters, created by 00:36:07.090 --> 00:36:09.510 meteorologist Rob Jones. Thanks for listening 00:36:09.510 --> 00:36:12.190 and remember, meteorology always matters.