WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.040 Right now, the most advanced supercomputers on 00:00:03.040 --> 00:00:07.799 Earth, I mean, machines that process quadrillions 00:00:07.799 --> 00:00:11.080 of calculations a second, are completely failing 00:00:11.080 --> 00:00:14.080 to predict what the Pacific Ocean is doing. And 00:00:14.080 --> 00:00:17.359 that multi -billion dollar blind spot, it might 00:00:17.359 --> 00:00:19.420 just dictate whether a category five hurricane 00:00:19.420 --> 00:00:22.100 hits your town this summer. Welcome to Meteorology 00:00:22.100 --> 00:00:24.399 Matters, the podcast that dives deep into the 00:00:24.399 --> 00:00:26.339 science chaos and stories behind the weather 00:00:26.339 --> 00:00:28.890 that shapes our world. This show was created 00:00:28.890 --> 00:00:31.989 by meteorologist Rob Jones. Now let's get into 00:00:31.989 --> 00:00:34.310 today's episode of Meteorology Matters. It is 00:00:34.310 --> 00:00:36.490 incredibly urgent that we have this conversation 00:00:36.490 --> 00:00:38.710 today. The rules of the game are fundamentally 00:00:38.710 --> 00:00:41.250 changing. Yeah, they really are. And look, our 00:00:41.250 --> 00:00:44.030 mission today is absolutely critical for anyone 00:00:44.030 --> 00:00:46.130 living near a coastline or... frankly, anyone 00:00:46.130 --> 00:00:48.390 who cares about how extreme weather impacts our 00:00:48.390 --> 00:00:51.149 lives, our economy, and our safety. Right, because 00:00:51.149 --> 00:00:54.009 June 1st is approaching fast. Exactly. So we 00:00:54.009 --> 00:00:57.369 are unpacking the brand new 2026 hurricane season 00:00:57.369 --> 00:00:59.770 forecast. We're going to examine the looming 00:00:59.770 --> 00:01:03.329 shadow of a massive El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, 00:01:03.990 --> 00:01:06.650 analyze how the honestly terrifying mechanics 00:01:06.650 --> 00:01:09.230 of rapid intensification are threatening our 00:01:09.230 --> 00:01:11.150 coastlines, and then walk through the radical 00:01:11.150 --> 00:01:13.209 new tools the National Hurricane Center is rolling 00:01:13.209 --> 00:01:16.180 out to keep you safe. long overdue, frankly. 00:01:16.400 --> 00:01:19.379 Totally. But I think we have to begin with the 00:01:19.379 --> 00:01:21.439 raw numbers, right? We need to establish the 00:01:21.439 --> 00:01:23.840 baseline for what recent atmospheric research 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:26.780 is actually projecting for this year. Yes. The 00:01:26.780 --> 00:01:29.000 baseline is crucial before we explain why those 00:01:29.000 --> 00:01:30.700 numbers might be deceiving. Right. So let's look 00:01:30.700 --> 00:01:33.140 at the latest meteorological data. They're predicting 00:01:33.140 --> 00:01:36.879 11 to 16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes, 00:01:37.200 --> 00:01:39.620 and two to four major hurricanes, meaning category 00:01:39.620 --> 00:01:42.549 three or higher for the 2026 season. And that 00:01:42.549 --> 00:01:45.329 includes direct landfalls. Yeah, they're predicting 00:01:45.329 --> 00:01:47.629 three to five direct impacts in the United States. 00:01:47.909 --> 00:01:49.709 And statistically speaking, there was a 40 percent 00:01:49.709 --> 00:01:51.930 chance that we exceed the 30 year historical 00:01:51.930 --> 00:01:55.170 average of 14 named storms. Oh, and the 2026 00:01:55.170 --> 00:01:57.709 storm names list will begin with Arthur, then 00:01:57.709 --> 00:02:00.530 Bertha and continue down the alphabet. OK, so 00:02:00.530 --> 00:02:02.290 you read those numbers. What is your initial 00:02:02.290 --> 00:02:04.670 takeaway? Well, I mean, when I look at those 00:02:04.670 --> 00:02:09.409 numbers, 11 to 16 named storms, that sounds incredibly 00:02:09.409 --> 00:02:12.030 average to me. It falls right in line with the 00:02:12.030 --> 00:02:13.949 historical norms we've seen over the past few 00:02:13.949 --> 00:02:15.889 decades. It does. It sounds completely normal. 00:02:16.110 --> 00:02:18.750 Right. Yet reading through the recent meteorological 00:02:18.750 --> 00:02:21.289 studies, the research community is characterizing 00:02:21.289 --> 00:02:24.550 this upcoming season with terms like highly concerning 00:02:24.550 --> 00:02:29.669 and unprecedented risk. So my question is, if 00:02:29.669 --> 00:02:32.629 the raw numbers are so perfectly average, why 00:02:32.629 --> 00:02:35.770 is the scientific community so alarmed? You are 00:02:35.770 --> 00:02:38.270 falling into a very common statistical trap there. 00:02:38.469 --> 00:02:40.909 And it's a trap that honestly has cost people 00:02:40.909 --> 00:02:43.659 their lives. Wait, really? How so? Well, we have 00:02:43.659 --> 00:02:46.199 to draw a hard, uncompromising line between a 00:02:46.199 --> 00:02:49.039 busy ocean and a disaster. Seasonal forecasts, 00:02:49.060 --> 00:02:51.840 like the 11 to 16 named storms you just listed, 00:02:52.180 --> 00:02:54.259 they only tell us about ocean activity. Just 00:02:54.259 --> 00:02:56.280 the sheer number of storms that form. Exactly. 00:02:56.639 --> 00:02:59.280 They tell us how many localized spinning vortexes 00:02:59.280 --> 00:03:01.580 of wind and rain might form out in the open water 00:03:01.580 --> 00:03:03.580 of the Atlantic or the Caribbean. They tell us 00:03:03.580 --> 00:03:06.539 absolutely nothing about impact. So a storm staying 00:03:06.539 --> 00:03:08.860 out at sea counts the same on the spreadsheet 00:03:08.860 --> 00:03:12.689 as one hitting Miami. Precisely. Disasters are 00:03:12.689 --> 00:03:14.990 strictly dictated by atmospheric steering currents 00:03:14.990 --> 00:03:17.849 and geography. You could have a highly active 00:03:17.849 --> 00:03:21.569 season, say 25 storms, right? Yeah, we should 00:03:21.569 --> 00:03:24.689 be massive. Right. But if a strong high pressure 00:03:24.689 --> 00:03:27.949 system forces all of them to curve harmlessly 00:03:27.949 --> 00:03:30.409 out into the cold waters of the northern Atlantic, 00:03:31.030 --> 00:03:33.550 that is a meteorological anomaly. It's fascinating 00:03:33.550 --> 00:03:36.569 for scientists, but it is not a disaster. Right. 00:03:36.629 --> 00:03:38.550 Nobody on land actually cares because it doesn't 00:03:38.550 --> 00:03:41.219 affect them. Exactly. Conversely, a season with 00:03:41.219 --> 00:03:43.400 very few storms where the atmospheric steering 00:03:43.400 --> 00:03:46.360 currents guide just one major hurricane into 00:03:46.360 --> 00:03:50.199 a heavily populated coastline. That is a catastrophic 00:03:50.199 --> 00:03:53.319 historical event. In our field, this is codified 00:03:53.319 --> 00:03:55.879 as the, it only takes one rule. I really want 00:03:55.879 --> 00:03:58.580 to focus on that rule because, you know, statistics 00:03:58.580 --> 00:04:01.180 can breed this very dangerous sense of complacency. 00:04:01.479 --> 00:04:04.000 They absolutely can. It reminds me of evaluating 00:04:04.000 --> 00:04:06.199 a baseball team's offense. You might look at 00:04:06.199 --> 00:04:08.000 a batter who has a terrible batting average. 00:04:08.460 --> 00:04:10.060 He strikes out constantly. He only gets three 00:04:10.060 --> 00:04:12.509 or four hits the entire season. So on paper, 00:04:12.610 --> 00:04:14.669 he looks like a non -threat. Exactly. If you're 00:04:14.669 --> 00:04:16.389 just looking at the spreadsheet, you dismiss 00:04:16.389 --> 00:04:19.269 him. But if one of those rare hits happens to 00:04:19.269 --> 00:04:21.189 be a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth inning 00:04:21.189 --> 00:04:23.870 of the World Series, that low batting average 00:04:23.870 --> 00:04:26.910 is completely irrelevant. Because the impact 00:04:26.910 --> 00:04:29.829 of that single event defines the entire season. 00:04:29.970 --> 00:04:32.069 Right. So how does that translate to hurricane 00:04:32.069 --> 00:04:35.120 history? History validates that concept with 00:04:35.120 --> 00:04:38.899 brutal clarity. To truly understand why the meteorological 00:04:38.899 --> 00:04:41.459 community is alarmed about an average forecast 00:04:41.459 --> 00:04:45.519 for 2026, we have to look back at the 1992 hurricane 00:04:45.519 --> 00:04:49.000 season. Oh, wow. 1992. Yes. By all statistical 00:04:49.000 --> 00:04:52.300 measures, 1992 was remarkably quiet. If you lived 00:04:52.300 --> 00:04:55.100 in Florida in 1992 and heard the seasonal forecast 00:04:55.100 --> 00:04:57.480 predicting a low number of storms, you probably 00:04:57.480 --> 00:04:59.259 felt very secure. You probably didn't even buy 00:04:59.259 --> 00:05:02.060 hurricane shutters. Exactly. And through June, 00:05:02.000 --> 00:05:05.660 July and most of August, absolutely nothing happened. 00:05:05.860 --> 00:05:07.819 The ocean was completely dead. People let their 00:05:07.819 --> 00:05:09.860 guard down entirely. And then what happened? 00:05:10.300 --> 00:05:12.959 Well, in late August, the very first named storm 00:05:12.959 --> 00:05:16.060 of the season finally formed. That storm was 00:05:16.060 --> 00:05:20.360 Hurricane Andrew. Oh my gosh. Yes. It was a compact, 00:05:20.699 --> 00:05:23.660 incredibly fierce system that slammed into Homestead, 00:05:23.660 --> 00:05:27.180 Florida as a category five monster. It leveled 00:05:27.180 --> 00:05:29.199 entire neighborhoods. I remember seeing the pictures. 00:05:29.259 --> 00:05:32.509 It literally looked like a tornado miles wide 00:05:32.509 --> 00:05:35.069 just wipe the earth clean. It stripped the paid 00:05:35.069 --> 00:05:37.829 -off cars. It fundamentally changed the building 00:05:37.829 --> 00:05:40.610 codes in the state of Florida forever. Now that 00:05:40.610 --> 00:05:43.629 season only produced seven named storms in total. 00:05:43.990 --> 00:05:47.189 Just seven. That's incredibly low. Right. But 00:05:47.189 --> 00:05:50.889 no one remembers 1992 as a quiet year. They remember 00:05:50.889 --> 00:05:52.970 it as the year of Andrew. Wow. And we've seen 00:05:52.970 --> 00:05:55.410 that recently too, right? Yes. We saw the exact 00:05:55.410 --> 00:05:57.170 same principle play out with Hurricane Michael 00:05:57.170 --> 00:06:01.189 in 2018. Michael defied the broader seasonal 00:06:01.189 --> 00:06:04.009 expectations and just exploded into a Category 00:06:04.009 --> 00:06:06.970 5 hurricane before devastating the Florida Panhandle. 00:06:07.050 --> 00:06:09.069 I remember the wind damage from Michael. It was 00:06:09.069 --> 00:06:11.439 unbelievable. The winds were so intense they 00:06:11.439 --> 00:06:13.980 snapped towering pine trees in half like toothpicks 00:06:13.980 --> 00:06:16.720 for miles inland. So when atmospheric research 00:06:16.720 --> 00:06:19.259 presents an average number of storms, you must 00:06:19.259 --> 00:06:21.399 internalize that the risk to your specific home, 00:06:21.540 --> 00:06:23.959 your specific family and your specific town has 00:06:23.959 --> 00:06:26.199 not decreased by a single fraction of a percent. 00:06:26.579 --> 00:06:28.779 Man, that really reframes the entire forecast 00:06:28.779 --> 00:06:32.100 for you. So, OK, if we are hovering right around 00:06:32.100 --> 00:06:36.019 that average mark for 2026, what is the atmospheric 00:06:36.019 --> 00:06:38.379 mechanism keeping those numbers in check? That 00:06:38.379 --> 00:06:41.899 is the million dollar question. Because frankly, 00:06:42.000 --> 00:06:44.560 why aren't we seeing predictions for 25 or 30 00:06:44.560 --> 00:06:48.100 storms given how demonstrably hotter the planet 00:06:48.100 --> 00:06:50.319 is getting every single year? Well, the answer 00:06:50.319 --> 00:06:52.980 to what is suppressing the Atlantic hurricane 00:06:52.980 --> 00:06:55.860 numbers is actually located thousands of miles 00:06:55.860 --> 00:06:58.660 away. Right. In the Pacific Ocean. Exactly. Recent 00:06:58.660 --> 00:07:00.639 data from the Climate Prediction Center indicates 00:07:00.639 --> 00:07:02.959 we are currently transitioning out of a prolonged 00:07:02.959 --> 00:07:05.120 La Niña phase. OK. And where are we heading? 00:07:05.389 --> 00:07:08.949 By May through July of 2026, the oceans will 00:07:08.949 --> 00:07:11.430 likely be in a neutral condition, but the data 00:07:11.430 --> 00:07:14.750 shows a 62 % chance that a massive El Nino will 00:07:14.750 --> 00:07:18.050 emerge by the June to August window. Wow, 62%. 00:07:18.050 --> 00:07:20.069 That's a pretty strong signal. It gets stronger. 00:07:20.470 --> 00:07:22.230 There is a one in three chance it will become 00:07:22.230 --> 00:07:26.589 a strong El Nino by late 2026, and a 22 % chance 00:07:26.589 --> 00:07:28.870 of it escalating into what climatologists call 00:07:28.870 --> 00:07:31.610 a super El Nino. You know, we hear this term 00:07:31.610 --> 00:07:34.689 El Nino constantly on the news, but I feel like 00:07:34.689 --> 00:07:37.550 the actual mechanics of it are rarely explained. 00:07:37.910 --> 00:07:40.850 They are vast and complex, and they literally 00:07:40.850 --> 00:07:43.870 govern the weather patterns of the entire globe. 00:07:44.670 --> 00:07:46.709 So break it down for us. What is actually happening? 00:07:46.879 --> 00:07:49.339 To understand El Nino, we have to look at the 00:07:49.339 --> 00:07:52.139 baseline normal state of the Pacific Ocean. Under 00:07:52.139 --> 00:07:55.339 normal conditions, we have incredibly persistent 00:07:55.339 --> 00:07:58.360 trade winds that blow across the Pacific from 00:07:58.360 --> 00:08:00.579 east to west. So that's from the coast of South 00:08:00.579 --> 00:08:03.319 America heading toward Asia and Australia. Right. 00:08:03.339 --> 00:08:06.000 And these winds act like a massive invisible 00:08:06.000 --> 00:08:09.759 plow. They physically push the sun -warmed surface 00:08:09.759 --> 00:08:13.000 water across the ocean toward Indonesia. Just 00:08:13.000 --> 00:08:14.920 piling all that warm water up on the other side 00:08:14.920 --> 00:08:17.519 of the world. Exactly. And because millions of 00:08:17.519 --> 00:08:19.740 gallons of warm water are constantly being pushed 00:08:19.740 --> 00:08:22.160 west, there is a void left behind along the coast 00:08:22.160 --> 00:08:24.660 of South America. Right. Nature hates a vacuum. 00:08:25.000 --> 00:08:27.360 Something has to fill it. And what fills it is 00:08:27.360 --> 00:08:29.980 freezing cold water from deep down in the ocean 00:08:29.980 --> 00:08:32.860 trenches. It wells up to the surface. This cold 00:08:32.860 --> 00:08:35.700 upwelling is rich in nutrients and supports massive 00:08:35.700 --> 00:08:38.580 fish populations. OK, so that's the normal baseline. 00:08:38.960 --> 00:08:41.279 Where does El Nino come in? An El Nino event 00:08:41.279 --> 00:08:44.220 occurs when those steady easterly trade winds 00:08:44.220 --> 00:08:47.639 falter. For reasons we are still studying, the 00:08:47.639 --> 00:08:50.919 winds weaken and sometimes even reverse. So the 00:08:50.919 --> 00:08:54.019 plow just stops pushing? Yes. And when the plow 00:08:54.019 --> 00:08:57.059 stops, all that warm surface water that was piled 00:08:57.059 --> 00:09:00.500 up near Asia begins to slosh backward, migrating 00:09:00.500 --> 00:09:03.970 eastward towards South America. the eastern Pacific 00:09:03.970 --> 00:09:06.730 Ocean, which is normally freezing cold, suddenly 00:09:06.730 --> 00:09:09.629 warms up significantly. You know, that migration 00:09:09.629 --> 00:09:11.830 of warm water is actually the origin of the name 00:09:11.830 --> 00:09:14.450 itself, isn't it? It is. Yeah, centuries ago, 00:09:14.710 --> 00:09:16.429 South American fishermen operating off the coast 00:09:16.429 --> 00:09:20.049 of Peru and Ecuador noticed this periodic, drastic 00:09:20.049 --> 00:09:22.690 warming of the ocean. And it usually peed in 00:09:22.690 --> 00:09:24.210 December, right around Christmas. Right, and 00:09:24.210 --> 00:09:26.049 it completely destroyed their livelihood. Yeah, 00:09:26.090 --> 00:09:28.789 because the cold, nutrient -rich water was suddenly 00:09:28.789 --> 00:09:31.149 capped by this invading warm water, so the Fitch 00:09:31.149 --> 00:09:33.750 populations completely collapsed. And since it 00:09:33.750 --> 00:09:35.929 happened around Christmas, they named the phenomenon 00:09:35.929 --> 00:09:38.669 El Niño de Navidad, the Little Boy of Christmas, 00:09:38.929 --> 00:09:41.679 in reference to the infant Jesus. It is a profound 00:09:41.679 --> 00:09:44.779 example of observational science predating modern 00:09:44.779 --> 00:09:47.320 meteorology. Truly. They had no satellites. Yeah. 00:09:47.460 --> 00:09:49.379 But they knew exactly what was happening to the 00:09:49.379 --> 00:09:51.840 ocean. Exactly. Those fishermen were documenting 00:09:51.840 --> 00:09:55.220 a localized symptom of a global atmospheric disruption. 00:09:55.919 --> 00:09:59.440 Because when that massive anomalous pool of warm 00:09:59.440 --> 00:10:02.840 water settles in the Eastern Pacific, it completely 00:10:02.840 --> 00:10:05.860 alters the atmosphere above it. How so? Well, 00:10:06.220 --> 00:10:08.600 warm water heats the air, warm air rises rapidly. 00:10:09.120 --> 00:10:11.820 This creates massive towering updrafts of air 00:10:11.820 --> 00:10:14.100 in a region over the Pacific where they do not 00:10:14.100 --> 00:10:15.960 normally occur. OK, I think I have a good way 00:10:15.960 --> 00:10:19.580 to visualize this. Imagine a smoothly flowing 00:10:19.580 --> 00:10:22.200 river. OK, I like where this is going. That river 00:10:22.200 --> 00:10:24.779 represents the global atmospheric circulation, 00:10:25.320 --> 00:10:27.440 specifically the high altitude jet streams that 00:10:27.440 --> 00:10:30.279 guide our weather. Now imagine taking a massive 00:10:30.279 --> 00:10:32.539 boulder and dropping it right into the middle 00:10:32.539 --> 00:10:34.519 of that rushing river. The water is forced to 00:10:34.519 --> 00:10:37.220 divert. Exactly. Yeah. It creates violent rapids 00:10:37.220 --> 00:10:40.200 and chaotic ripples downstream. So those massive 00:10:40.200 --> 00:10:42.460 updrafts of warm air over the Pacific, they act 00:10:42.460 --> 00:10:45.100 exactly like that boulder. That is a perfect 00:10:45.100 --> 00:10:47.899 analogy. They disrupt the jet stream, sending 00:10:47.899 --> 00:10:50.620 ripples of weather chaos all across the globe. 00:10:51.139 --> 00:10:53.600 This shift changes the weather map entirely. 00:10:53.879 --> 00:10:55.620 What kind of changes are we talking about for 00:10:55.620 --> 00:10:58.129 you and me on the ground? Out west, the altered 00:10:58.129 --> 00:11:01.129 jet stream leads to significantly hotter, drier 00:11:01.129 --> 00:11:04.750 summers. The soil bakes. The underbrush dries 00:11:04.750 --> 00:11:07.429 out into kindling, which drastically increases 00:11:07.429 --> 00:11:10.289 the risk and severity of wildfires across California 00:11:10.289 --> 00:11:13.070 and Oregon. Right. And we've seen some horrific 00:11:13.070 --> 00:11:15.629 fire seasons out there during El Nino years. 00:11:15.889 --> 00:11:17.950 Absolutely. Down south, the southern tier of 00:11:17.950 --> 00:11:20.149 the United States typically experiences cooler 00:11:20.149 --> 00:11:22.809 but much wetter winters, increasing flood risks. 00:11:23.409 --> 00:11:25.769 The shifting currents also pull an immense amount 00:11:25.769 --> 00:11:27.840 of moisture up from the southern plains, dragging 00:11:27.840 --> 00:11:30.639 it across to the east coast. So the whole United 00:11:30.639 --> 00:11:32.679 States feels the ripple effect of that boulder. 00:11:32.840 --> 00:11:35.259 Everyone feels it. And while the Atlantic side 00:11:35.259 --> 00:11:37.480 might see fewer hurricanes, the Pacific Ocean 00:11:37.480 --> 00:11:40.860 itself gets much wilder. The warmer waters increase 00:11:40.860 --> 00:11:43.519 the cyclone risks exponentially for Hawaii and 00:11:43.519 --> 00:11:46.679 the Asian coastlines. Wow. Okay, so we have this 00:11:46.679 --> 00:11:49.620 massive boulder in the river disrupting the global 00:11:49.620 --> 00:11:53.620 jet stream. How does that... specifically translate 00:11:53.620 --> 00:11:56.580 into an average or slightly suppressed hurricane 00:11:56.580 --> 00:11:58.519 forecast for the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf 00:11:58.519 --> 00:12:01.059 of Mexico. The disruption of the jet stream creates 00:12:01.059 --> 00:12:04.559 very fast, high -altitude winds that sweep horizontally 00:12:04.559 --> 00:12:07.820 from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico and 00:12:07.820 --> 00:12:11.120 the Atlantic basin. We call this phenomenon wind 00:12:11.120 --> 00:12:13.320 shear. Wind shear, okay, and why is that important? 00:12:13.559 --> 00:12:17.120 Wind shear is the primary antagonist to hurricane 00:12:17.120 --> 00:12:19.639 formation. Right, because a hurricane requires 00:12:19.639 --> 00:12:23.330 a very specific fragile architecture to survive. 00:12:23.450 --> 00:12:26.190 It wants to be stacked, perfectly vertical, straight 00:12:26.190 --> 00:12:28.149 up into the atmosphere, almost like a brick chimney. 00:12:28.629 --> 00:12:30.570 Exactly. The structure has to be completely upright. 00:12:30.769 --> 00:12:33.269 The heat rises through the center, the air exhausts 00:12:33.269 --> 00:12:35.370 out the top, and the whole system functions like 00:12:35.370 --> 00:12:38.169 a massive engine. But if you have strong wind, 00:12:38.549 --> 00:12:40.649 sheer these high altitude winds tearing horizontally 00:12:40.649 --> 00:12:42.950 across the top of the storm, it is literally 00:12:42.950 --> 00:12:45.169 like someone physically kicking the top off that 00:12:45.169 --> 00:12:46.889 brick chimney. That's a great way to put it. 00:12:46.909 --> 00:12:49.220 The exhaust system is broken. The storm becomes 00:12:49.220 --> 00:12:51.700 tilted, it cannot organize its internal circulation, 00:12:52.100 --> 00:12:54.240 and it just gets torn apart before it can mature. 00:12:54.539 --> 00:12:56.700 Yes, the wind shear essentially decapitates the 00:12:56.700 --> 00:12:59.899 storm. So wait, if El Nino creates massive amounts 00:12:59.899 --> 00:13:02.519 of wind shear over the Atlantic, and wind shear 00:13:02.519 --> 00:13:05.840 actively destroys hurricanes, shouldn't we be 00:13:05.840 --> 00:13:08.240 breathing a massive sigh of relief on the East 00:13:08.240 --> 00:13:11.240 Coast? Why aren't forecasters telling us to relax? 00:13:11.580 --> 00:13:14.059 That assumption right there is precisely why 00:13:14.059 --> 00:13:16.279 the research community is fighting so hard to 00:13:16.279 --> 00:13:19.460 communicate the actual danger of the 2026 season. 00:13:20.139 --> 00:13:22.639 You are looking at wind shear as an isolated 00:13:22.639 --> 00:13:25.259 variable. And I shouldn't be. No, you cannot 00:13:25.259 --> 00:13:27.080 look at the wind without looking at the water. 00:13:27.480 --> 00:13:30.700 Ah, OK. Yes, El Nino creates wind shear, which 00:13:30.700 --> 00:13:33.279 acts as a dampening mechanism. But the ocean 00:13:33.279 --> 00:13:35.980 water temperatures, the literal fuel source for 00:13:35.980 --> 00:13:38.539 these storms, are behaving in a way that defies 00:13:38.539 --> 00:13:41.029 historical precedent. How are we talking? Water 00:13:41.029 --> 00:13:43.009 in the tropical Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico 00:13:43.009 --> 00:13:45.529 is practically boiling. We are seeing marine 00:13:45.529 --> 00:13:47.370 heat waves that are stretching the limits of 00:13:47.370 --> 00:13:50.830 our historical charts. Man, let's visualize the 00:13:50.830 --> 00:13:52.590 physical interaction happening in the Gulf of 00:13:52.590 --> 00:13:54.590 Mexico right now. Because I don't want you to 00:13:54.590 --> 00:13:57.049 think of this as a simple math equation, where 00:13:57.049 --> 00:13:59.529 wind shear simply cancels out warm water. Right, 00:13:59.570 --> 00:14:01.830 it's not a one -to -one cancellation. Think of 00:14:01.830 --> 00:14:04.470 it like a terrifying physics experiment. The 00:14:04.470 --> 00:14:08.090 Gulf of Mexico is a massive, highly pressurized 00:14:08.090 --> 00:14:11.460 container. The boiling water temperatures are 00:14:11.460 --> 00:14:14.059 creating an unbelievable amount of thermal energy. 00:14:14.620 --> 00:14:17.539 It wants to explode upward into a storm. It is 00:14:17.539 --> 00:14:20.200 desperately trying to release that heat. Exactly, 00:14:20.340 --> 00:14:23.019 and the global wind shear generated by El Nino 00:14:23.019 --> 00:14:26.419 is acting like a heavy steel lid pressing down 00:14:26.419 --> 00:14:28.440 on that container, keeping all that explosive 00:14:28.440 --> 00:14:30.899 energy trapped. Yes, and as long as the lid stays 00:14:30.899 --> 00:14:33.179 perfectly in place, the storms are suppressed. 00:14:33.450 --> 00:14:35.490 But weather is chaotic, right? The wind shear 00:14:35.490 --> 00:14:37.970 is not constant. It ebbs and flows. So if that 00:14:37.970 --> 00:14:41.889 heavy steel lid slips even for 24 hours, if a 00:14:41.889 --> 00:14:44.230 localized pocket of low wind shear develops over 00:14:44.230 --> 00:14:46.350 the Gulf of Mexico. All that trapped thermal 00:14:46.350 --> 00:14:49.870 energy violently releases. It's terrifying. And 00:14:49.870 --> 00:14:52.049 the environmental monitoring data, like the extensive 00:14:52.049 --> 00:14:55.529 water temperature profiling the EPA and other 00:14:55.529 --> 00:14:58.409 scientific agencies rely on, shows us that these 00:14:58.409 --> 00:15:01.309 local extremes, these sudden releases of energy, 00:15:01.730 --> 00:15:04.269 are becoming far more common. They are. And the 00:15:04.269 --> 00:15:06.750 scientific term for that sudden, violent release 00:15:06.750 --> 00:15:10.669 of energy is rapid intensification. Rapid intensification. 00:15:10.830 --> 00:15:13.330 Yes. And frankly, this is the single most terrifying 00:15:13.330 --> 00:15:16.909 dynamic in modern meteorology. Rapid intensification 00:15:16.909 --> 00:15:19.350 is the phenomenon where a relatively weak tropical 00:15:19.350 --> 00:15:22.769 storm explodes into a catastrophic major hurricane 00:15:22.769 --> 00:15:25.789 in a matter of hours. Just hours. That's so fast. 00:15:26.210 --> 00:15:28.379 How does the physics of that actually work? Well, 00:15:28.379 --> 00:15:30.059 to understand how this happens, we must look 00:15:30.059 --> 00:15:32.720 at the thermodynamics. A hurricane is a heat 00:15:32.720 --> 00:15:35.340 engine. It survives by pulling thermal energy 00:15:35.340 --> 00:15:37.720 out of the ocean water and converting it into 00:15:37.720 --> 00:15:40.159 kinetic energy, which is the wind. OK, so it 00:15:40.159 --> 00:15:42.840 turns heat into wind. Exactly. Imagine a hot 00:15:42.840 --> 00:15:44.919 air balloon. The burner at the bottom of the 00:15:44.919 --> 00:15:47.600 balloon represents the warm ocean water. If the 00:15:47.600 --> 00:15:50.000 water is moderately warm, it is like a standard 00:15:50.000 --> 00:15:53.019 burner. The balloon inflates slowly, the air 00:15:53.019 --> 00:15:55.799 inside heats up gradually, and it rises at a 00:15:55.799 --> 00:15:58.220 steady, manageable pace. which is how hurricanes 00:15:58.220 --> 00:16:01.379 used to form over several days. Precisely. But 00:16:01.379 --> 00:16:03.679 the water in the Gulf of Mexico right now is 00:16:03.679 --> 00:16:06.860 not moderately warm. It is retaining an unprecedented 00:16:06.860 --> 00:16:10.740 amount of deep, trapped heat. When a storm slips 00:16:10.740 --> 00:16:12.980 through a gap in the wind shear and encounters 00:16:12.980 --> 00:16:16.500 this water, it is like strapping a military -grade 00:16:16.500 --> 00:16:19.240 jet engine into the basket of that hot air balloon. 00:16:19.500 --> 00:16:22.210 Oh, wow. The heat transfer is instantaneous and 00:16:22.210 --> 00:16:25.230 violent. The core of the storm ingests massive 00:16:25.230 --> 00:16:28.250 amounts of thermal energy. This causes the barometric 00:16:28.250 --> 00:16:30.889 pressure inside the center of the storm to plummet 00:16:30.889 --> 00:16:33.350 precipitously. And nature hates a vacuum, right? 00:16:33.429 --> 00:16:35.289 So the air rushes in. Yes. When the pressure 00:16:35.289 --> 00:16:37.929 drops that fast, the storm acts like a colossal 00:16:37.929 --> 00:16:40.570 vacuum cleaner, violently sucking in the surrounding 00:16:40.570 --> 00:16:43.070 air to equalize the pressure. And that incoming 00:16:43.070 --> 00:16:45.870 air becomes the destructive wind. That is just 00:16:45.870 --> 00:16:48.429 a terrifying picture. We are talking about storms 00:16:48.429 --> 00:16:51.049 jumping two or three categories, going from a 00:16:51.049 --> 00:16:54.690 manageable 70 mile per hour storm to a catastrophic 00:16:54.690 --> 00:16:58.870 140 mile per hour monster in less than 24 hours. 00:16:59.070 --> 00:17:01.490 Which brings us directly to the specific danger 00:17:01.490 --> 00:17:05.210 zones identified for 2026. Because of this fallable 00:17:05.210 --> 00:17:07.970 dynamic, the battle between the El Nino wind 00:17:07.970 --> 00:17:11.029 shear and the incredibly warm water recent atmospheric 00:17:11.029 --> 00:17:14.650 research has pinpointed specific high risk areas 00:17:14.650 --> 00:17:17.170 along the United States coastline. Yes, and the 00:17:17.170 --> 00:17:20.170 threat profile is very The research aggressively 00:17:20.170 --> 00:17:22.789 highlights the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico 00:17:22.789 --> 00:17:25.529 coast. Specifically, the entire west coast of 00:17:25.529 --> 00:17:27.869 Florida is under an extreme threat profile. That 00:17:27.869 --> 00:17:30.369 entire corridor is highly vulnerable right now. 00:17:30.509 --> 00:17:32.549 Yeah, this stretches from Pensacola down through 00:17:32.549 --> 00:17:34.809 the Panhandle and all the way down the Western 00:17:34.809 --> 00:17:37.630 Peninsula to Fort Myers, encompassing massive 00:17:37.630 --> 00:17:40.730 population centers like Tampa, Sarasota and Clearwater. 00:17:40.910 --> 00:17:43.230 And we can't forget the East Coast. Right. Additionally, 00:17:43.609 --> 00:17:45.849 the Carolinas are identified as high risk zones 00:17:45.849 --> 00:17:48.430 for this particular season. But interestingly, 00:17:49.049 --> 00:17:51.170 the data indicates that central and southern 00:17:51.170 --> 00:17:54.710 Texas currently face a lower than average risk 00:17:54.710 --> 00:17:59.250 based on the anticipated atmosphere We really 00:17:59.250 --> 00:18:01.750 must focus deeply on the vulnerability of Florida's 00:18:01.750 --> 00:18:04.109 west coast because it perfectly illustrates how 00:18:04.109 --> 00:18:06.650 meteorological phenomena interact with physical 00:18:06.650 --> 00:18:09.289 geography to create a disaster. Because it's 00:18:09.289 --> 00:18:11.970 not just about the wind speed, is it? No, the 00:18:11.970 --> 00:18:14.089 threat there is not just the wind. It is the 00:18:14.089 --> 00:18:17.170 water. We have to look at the bathymetry, the 00:18:17.170 --> 00:18:19.609 underwater topography of the Gulf of Mexico right 00:18:19.609 --> 00:18:21.829 off the coast of Tampa and Fort Myers. Okay, 00:18:21.930 --> 00:18:24.609 what makes it so dangerous? The continental shelf 00:18:24.609 --> 00:18:27.269 in that specific region is remarkably shallow 00:18:27.269 --> 00:18:30.349 and gently sloping. It extends miles out into 00:18:30.349 --> 00:18:32.529 the gulf before dropping off into deep water. 00:18:32.730 --> 00:18:34.549 What is that metaphor for a hurricane? Well, 00:18:34.549 --> 00:18:36.809 when a hurricane moves across deep ocean water, 00:18:37.089 --> 00:18:39.470 the intense winds push a massive amount of water 00:18:39.470 --> 00:18:42.349 ahead of the storm. In the deep ocean, that excess 00:18:42.349 --> 00:18:45.329 water can simply circulate downward beneath the 00:18:45.329 --> 00:18:47.769 surface, dispersing the energy. Ah, so it kind 00:18:47.769 --> 00:18:50.490 of just rolls underneath itself. Exactly. But 00:18:50.490 --> 00:18:52.569 when that hurricane approaches Florida's west 00:18:52.569 --> 00:18:55.990 coast, that mound of water hits the shallow continental 00:18:55.990 --> 00:18:59.329 shelf. The water suddenly has nowhere to go downward. 00:18:59.650 --> 00:19:01.670 Because the ocean floor is right there. Yes. 00:19:01.880 --> 00:19:04.180 It is trapped between the ocean floor and the 00:19:04.180 --> 00:19:07.119 surface. As the storm continues to push forward, 00:19:07.640 --> 00:19:10.420 that massive volume of water is forced to pile 00:19:10.420 --> 00:19:14.079 up vertically and surge inland. This physical 00:19:14.079 --> 00:19:17.259 funneling effect creates a catastrophic storm 00:19:17.259 --> 00:19:21.019 surge, pushing a wall of ocean water 10 to 15 00:19:21.019 --> 00:19:23.920 feet high directly into coastal communities. 00:19:24.160 --> 00:19:26.599 And look, beyond the physical geography, there's 00:19:26.599 --> 00:19:29.599 profound human element here that makes Florida's 00:19:29.599 --> 00:19:32.849 west coast uniquely vulnerable. It is an absolute 00:19:32.849 --> 00:19:35.150 demographic nightmare when combined with rapid 00:19:35.150 --> 00:19:37.190 intensification. It really is, especially when 00:19:37.190 --> 00:19:39.349 you consider who is actually down there. Right, 00:19:39.529 --> 00:19:41.289 because it's not just the locals who have lived 00:19:41.289 --> 00:19:43.210 in Tampa for decades and understand the geometry 00:19:43.210 --> 00:19:45.650 of the coastline. Florida's west coast draws 00:19:45.650 --> 00:19:48.069 millions of transient tourists every single month. 00:19:48.230 --> 00:19:50.009 People who have absolutely no experience with 00:19:50.009 --> 00:19:52.509 tropical weather. Exactly. These are families 00:19:52.509 --> 00:19:55.240 renting beach houses for a week. They do not 00:19:55.240 --> 00:19:57.380 know the local geography. They do not know which 00:19:57.380 --> 00:20:00.160 roads flood first. They do not know the designated 00:20:00.160 --> 00:20:02.579 evacuation routes. And they certainly do not 00:20:02.579 --> 00:20:04.799 understand the nuances of the local emergency 00:20:04.799 --> 00:20:07.700 alert systems. Most importantly, they lack the 00:20:07.700 --> 00:20:10.819 historical context to understand how fast a modern 00:20:10.819 --> 00:20:13.859 storm can escalate. That lack of context is deadly. 00:20:14.600 --> 00:20:17.640 Historically, coastal populations relied on a 00:20:17.640 --> 00:20:20.039 multi -day buildup to a hurricane. Right, you'd 00:20:20.039 --> 00:20:22.160 watch it on the news for a week. Yes, you would 00:20:22.160 --> 00:20:25.000 watch a storm form off the coast of Africa on 00:20:25.000 --> 00:20:28.000 the evening news. You would track it slowly crossing 00:20:28.000 --> 00:20:30.619 the Atlantic for a week. You had days to secure 00:20:30.619 --> 00:20:33.640 your property, board up windows, buy supplies, 00:20:33.980 --> 00:20:36.400 and organize an orderly evacuation. It was a 00:20:36.400 --> 00:20:39.000 very predictable rhythm. But rapid intensification 00:20:39.000 --> 00:20:42.000 entirely shatters that timeline. It breaks the 00:20:42.000 --> 00:20:44.190 fundamental psychological model of hurricane 00:20:44.190 --> 00:20:46.450 preparation. So what does a modern timeline look 00:20:46.450 --> 00:20:48.970 like? A disorganized cluster of thunderstorms 00:20:48.970 --> 00:20:51.150 might form in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico 00:20:51.150 --> 00:20:53.829 on a Tuesday morning. The local forecast might 00:20:53.829 --> 00:20:55.970 simply call for heavy rain. Something you would 00:20:55.970 --> 00:20:58.950 even cancel dinner plans for. Exactly. But if 00:20:58.950 --> 00:21:01.529 that cluster hits a pocket of extreme heat and 00:21:01.529 --> 00:21:04.839 low wind shear by Wednesday night, It has exploded 00:21:04.839 --> 00:21:07.460 into a category four monster making landfall. 00:21:07.779 --> 00:21:11.140 That is just horrifying for a tourist in an unfamiliar 00:21:11.140 --> 00:21:13.660 rental home or even a local resident who went 00:21:13.660 --> 00:21:15.220 to sleep thinking it was just going to be a breezy 00:21:15.220 --> 00:21:18.619 rain event. That speed of escalation is impossible 00:21:18.619 --> 00:21:21.279 to react to safely. You wake up, the water is 00:21:21.279 --> 00:21:23.160 already rising into your street. The winds are 00:21:23.160 --> 00:21:25.460 too high to drive safely and the window for evacuation 00:21:25.460 --> 00:21:28.119 has completely slammed shut. Which is exactly 00:21:28.119 --> 00:21:30.920 why the old ways of warning the public are fundamentally 00:21:30.920 --> 00:21:34.670 broken. We are facing faster, stronger storms 00:21:34.670 --> 00:21:37.289 that are threatening highly vulnerable transient 00:21:37.289 --> 00:21:40.759 populations with mere hours of notice. And the 00:21:40.759 --> 00:21:42.799 agencies are finally adapting to this. Yeah, 00:21:42.859 --> 00:21:45.920 to combat this new reality, the National Hurricane 00:21:45.920 --> 00:21:48.359 Center is radically changing its communication 00:21:48.359 --> 00:21:51.859 products for 2026. This is a complete revolution 00:21:51.859 --> 00:21:54.880 in how we visualize and communicate meteorological 00:21:54.880 --> 00:21:56.900 risk. It's going to look very different on people's 00:21:56.900 --> 00:21:59.220 screens. Let's walk through these new tools, 00:21:59.420 --> 00:22:01.460 because they will fundamentally alter what you 00:22:01.460 --> 00:22:03.339 see on your television and your phone this summer. 00:22:03.519 --> 00:22:07.579 First, the traditional cone of uncertainty, you 00:22:07.579 --> 00:22:10.019 know, that iconic white shaded graphic we all 00:22:10.019 --> 00:22:13.079 recognize, is getting a massive upgrade regarding 00:22:13.079 --> 00:22:15.859 inland warnings. This is a huge shift. Moving 00:22:15.859 --> 00:22:18.660 forward, the graphic will visually incorporate 00:22:18.660 --> 00:22:21.980 inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and 00:22:21.980 --> 00:22:25.160 warnings, extending those bright red and blue 00:22:25.160 --> 00:22:27.940 alert colors far away from the immediate coastline. 00:22:28.470 --> 00:22:31.329 This is a vital correction to a long -standing 00:22:31.329 --> 00:22:33.930 flaw in how the public perceives storm threats. 00:22:34.430 --> 00:22:36.930 For decades, the visual focus of the forecast 00:22:36.930 --> 00:22:39.089 cone has been almost exclusively on the coastal 00:22:39.089 --> 00:22:41.190 impact zone. Right. Everyone just stared at the 00:22:41.190 --> 00:22:42.950 beach. The eye of the public was always drawn 00:22:42.950 --> 00:22:45.009 to the exact point where the center line of the 00:22:45.009 --> 00:22:47.509 storm was projected to cross the shoreline. But 00:22:47.509 --> 00:22:50.130 as we saw tragically with Hurricane Helene, a 00:22:50.130 --> 00:22:52.509 storm's deadly effects do not magically stop 00:22:52.509 --> 00:22:54.809 at the beach. Helene was a wake -up call for 00:22:54.809 --> 00:22:57.680 so many people inland. Alene maintained its structural 00:22:57.680 --> 00:23:01.619 integrity far inland, bringing catastrophic torrential 00:23:01.619 --> 00:23:04.819 flooding and devastating wind gusts to mountainous 00:23:04.819 --> 00:23:07.400 regions hundreds of miles away from the initial 00:23:07.400 --> 00:23:10.980 landfall. So this new map tries to fix that visual 00:23:10.980 --> 00:23:13.920 bias. By extending those vivid watch and warning 00:23:13.920 --> 00:23:16.279 colors deep inland on the official graphics, 00:23:16.779 --> 00:23:19.339 the National Hurricane Center is actively fighting 00:23:19.339 --> 00:23:22.339 coastal bias. They are forcing the public to 00:23:22.339 --> 00:23:24.339 visually recognize that our hurricane is not 00:23:24.339 --> 00:23:28.000 merely a coastal event. It's a sprawling regional 00:23:28.000 --> 00:23:31.059 hazard that can obliterate infrastructure and 00:23:31.059 --> 00:23:33.240 cause immense loss of life far from the ocean. 00:23:33.579 --> 00:23:37.000 Exactly. And it is not just the inland warnings 00:23:37.000 --> 00:23:39.869 that are changing. 2026, we are going to see 00:23:39.869 --> 00:23:42.089 the introduction of experimental ellipse cone. 00:23:42.410 --> 00:23:44.390 This involves a profound shift in the underlying 00:23:44.390 --> 00:23:46.789 mathematics of the forecast. Historically, the 00:23:46.789 --> 00:23:48.630 National Hurricane Center created the cone by 00:23:48.630 --> 00:23:50.670 drawing circles along the projected path of the 00:23:50.670 --> 00:23:54.289 storm. Moving forward, they will use ellipse's 00:23:54.289 --> 00:23:56.930 elongated ovals. Right, and the math behind those 00:23:56.930 --> 00:23:59.710 ovals is much more comprehensive. This new mathematical 00:23:59.710 --> 00:24:02.549 model will account for historical errors in both 00:24:02.549 --> 00:24:05.490 the direction of the storm and the speed of the 00:24:05.490 --> 00:24:08.609 storm. Because of this complex calculation, the 00:24:08.609 --> 00:24:12.069 new experimental cone will cover 90 % of the 00:24:12.069 --> 00:24:14.970 forecast track possibilities. Which is a massive 00:24:14.970 --> 00:24:17.670 jump in coverage. Yeah, to put that into perspective, 00:24:18.210 --> 00:24:20.509 the traditional cone we have relied on for years 00:24:20.509 --> 00:24:24.450 only covered 67 % of the statistical possibilities. 00:24:24.680 --> 00:24:26.980 To truly appreciate why this change is necessary, 00:24:27.339 --> 00:24:29.339 we have to look at the psychology of warnings 00:24:29.339 --> 00:24:32.680 and how the human brain processes visual information. 00:24:32.839 --> 00:24:34.980 Okay, what was wrong with the old cone psychologically? 00:24:35.160 --> 00:24:38.299 The old 67 % cone had a massive psychological 00:24:38.299 --> 00:24:40.940 flaw. When human beings look at a graphic with 00:24:40.940 --> 00:24:43.640 a strictly defined line or border, our brains 00:24:43.640 --> 00:24:46.640 naturally crave certainty. We want a simple binary. 00:24:47.500 --> 00:24:49.980 Safe or dangerous? So if you're outside the line, 00:24:50.119 --> 00:24:52.539 you think you're fine? Exactly. If your particular 00:24:52.539 --> 00:24:55.059 town was located just one mile outside the skinny 00:24:55.059 --> 00:24:58.119 black line of the old forecast cone, the psychological 00:24:58.119 --> 00:25:00.839 response was overwhelming relief. You mentally 00:25:00.839 --> 00:25:02.880 checked out. You thought, I am outside the cone, 00:25:03.119 --> 00:25:05.380 therefore I am totally safe. even though the 00:25:05.380 --> 00:25:08.640 storm is hundreds of miles wide. Right. Mathematically, 00:25:08.839 --> 00:25:11.319 that was a dangerous illusion. There is always 00:25:11.319 --> 00:25:15.259 a 1 in 3 chance, a 33 % probability, that the 00:25:15.259 --> 00:25:17.559 exact center of the storm would track completely 00:25:17.559 --> 00:25:20.200 outside of that designated cone. Which is a huge 00:25:20.200 --> 00:25:22.140 margin of error when you're talking about a Category 00:25:22.140 --> 00:25:25.119 4 hurricane. Furthermore, it completely ignored 00:25:25.119 --> 00:25:27.440 the fact that the life -threatening impacts of 00:25:27.440 --> 00:25:30.460 a major hurricane, the storm surge, the outer 00:25:30.460 --> 00:25:34.140 rain bands, the tornadic activity extend hundreds 00:25:34.140 --> 00:25:36.500 of miles outward from the center point. I think 00:25:36.500 --> 00:25:39.180 the best way to visualize this difference is 00:25:39.180 --> 00:25:43.920 to imagine driving a car on a dark, winding, 00:25:44.259 --> 00:25:46.119 unfamiliar road in the middle of the night. Oh, 00:25:46.119 --> 00:25:50.799 I like this. The old 67 % forecast cone was like 00:25:50.799 --> 00:25:52.839 driving that road with only your low beams turned 00:25:52.839 --> 00:25:54.980 on. You can see the most likely path right in 00:25:54.980 --> 00:25:56.779 front of you. You feel relatively confident about 00:25:56.779 --> 00:25:58.440 the immediate stretch of asphalt. But you're 00:25:58.440 --> 00:26:01.619 missing everything else. Exactly. Your low beams 00:26:01.619 --> 00:26:04.859 completely miss the edges of the road. They miss 00:26:04.859 --> 00:26:07.200 the sharp drop off on the left. They miss the 00:26:07.200 --> 00:26:09.380 deer standing quietly in the ditch on the right. 00:26:10.059 --> 00:26:12.680 You have an illusion of safety because you are 00:26:12.680 --> 00:26:15.140 ignoring the periphery. And what does the new 00:26:15.140 --> 00:26:18.539 cone do? The new 90 % ellipse cone is like finally 00:26:18.539 --> 00:26:21.420 reaching up and turning your high beams on. The 00:26:21.420 --> 00:26:23.799 illuminated area is dramatically wider. The beam 00:26:23.799 --> 00:26:26.039 stretches further forward and spills out into 00:26:26.039 --> 00:26:28.839 the treeline. So you see the real danger. Right. 00:26:29.460 --> 00:26:31.380 Now initially, this might look a little more 00:26:31.380 --> 00:26:33.839 intimidating because you suddenly see much more 00:26:33.839 --> 00:26:36.259 of the surrounding landscape and all the potential 00:26:36.259 --> 00:26:39.359 hazards waiting in the dark. But it is giving 00:26:39.359 --> 00:26:42.039 you a much truer, much more accurate picture 00:26:42.039 --> 00:26:45.059 of your actual risk environment. That is a phenomenal 00:26:45.059 --> 00:26:47.740 way to explain it. The new 90 % ellipse model 00:26:47.740 --> 00:26:50.809 achieves exactly that. It changes the psychological 00:26:50.809 --> 00:26:53.150 impact of the forecast by illuminating the broader 00:26:53.150 --> 00:26:55.490 reality. It forces you to pay attention. When 00:26:55.490 --> 00:26:58.329 the public sees a much wider cone, an elongated 00:26:58.329 --> 00:27:00.690 shape that encompasses a vast array of track 00:27:00.690 --> 00:27:03.730 possibilities, it strips away that false sense 00:27:03.730 --> 00:27:06.349 of absolute safety for the people living on the 00:27:06.349 --> 00:27:09.650 margins of the forecast. It forces a broader 00:27:09.650 --> 00:27:12.130 regional state of readiness. And this isn't just 00:27:12.130 --> 00:27:14.819 an Atlantic upgrade, is it? No, we must remember 00:27:14.819 --> 00:27:17.420 that the El Niño dynamics we discussed earlier 00:27:17.420 --> 00:27:20.220 do not just impact the Atlantic. They significantly 00:27:20.220 --> 00:27:23.079 increase the cyclone risks in the Pacific Ocean. 00:27:23.240 --> 00:27:25.900 Right, because of the warmer water sloshing eastward. 00:27:26.180 --> 00:27:28.700 Because of this shifting threat profile, Hawaii 00:27:28.700 --> 00:27:31.400 is also receiving major meteorological upgrades 00:27:31.400 --> 00:27:35.460 for 2026. The islands are getting brand new dedicated 00:27:35.460 --> 00:27:38.259 storm surge watches, specific storm surge warnings, 00:27:38.500 --> 00:27:41.539 and highly detailed peak storm surge graphics 00:27:41.539 --> 00:27:43.730 tailored to their unique volcano. topography. 00:27:43.849 --> 00:27:46.109 Which is so critical for an island chain. Absolutely. 00:27:46.650 --> 00:27:49.190 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 00:27:49.190 --> 00:27:51.150 is ensuring that as the atmospheric patterns 00:27:51.150 --> 00:27:53.910 shift the global risk profiles, our communication 00:27:53.910 --> 00:27:56.569 and alert tools evolve simultaneously to protect 00:27:56.569 --> 00:27:59.650 vulnerable populations. We have spent a lot of 00:27:59.650 --> 00:28:02.450 time looking deeply at the specific mechanics 00:28:02.450 --> 00:28:06.059 of the 2026 season. We understand the El Nino 00:28:06.059 --> 00:28:09.779 factor, the terrifying reality of rapid intensification 00:28:09.779 --> 00:28:12.400 in the Gulf of Mexico, and the new high beam 00:28:12.400 --> 00:28:15.099 warning tools. Now, I really want to take a step 00:28:15.099 --> 00:28:17.039 back. Let's zoom out and look at the broader 00:28:17.039 --> 00:28:19.180 climate horizon. I think that's important, yes. 00:28:19.339 --> 00:28:23.019 With global ocean temperatures consistently breaking 00:28:23.019 --> 00:28:26.000 historical records year after year, it begs a 00:28:26.000 --> 00:28:29.440 terrifying question. Are the physical paths of 00:28:29.440 --> 00:28:32.089 these hurricanes permanently shifting? Like, 00:28:32.470 --> 00:28:35.029 are the storms actively hunting for warmer water? 00:28:35.289 --> 00:28:38.230 It's a complex question, and the answer is nuanced. 00:28:38.750 --> 00:28:41.130 Recent climate modeling studies show definitively 00:28:41.130 --> 00:28:43.329 that hurricanes are fundamentally changing in 00:28:43.329 --> 00:28:45.230 their composition. Meaning what's inside them? 00:28:45.329 --> 00:28:47.849 Yes. They're getting measurably stronger, and 00:28:47.849 --> 00:28:49.750 they're carrying significantly more moisture, 00:28:49.890 --> 00:28:52.549 making them exponentially wetter and more prone 00:28:52.549 --> 00:28:54.349 to catastrophic flooding. Right. We're seeing 00:28:54.349 --> 00:28:56.990 these massive rain bombs being dropped on city. 00:28:57.049 --> 00:28:59.089 But the actual shifting of the physical tracks 00:28:59.089 --> 00:29:01.509 where these storms physically travel is a fiercely 00:29:01.509 --> 00:29:04.039 debated topic in the scientific community. Let's 00:29:04.039 --> 00:29:06.039 break this down by looking at the Genesis location 00:29:06.039 --> 00:29:08.759 first. Where are these storms actually being 00:29:08.759 --> 00:29:12.359 born? The data over the last few decades shows 00:29:12.359 --> 00:29:15.859 a clear trend. Storms are increasingly forming 00:29:15.859 --> 00:29:18.819 much closer to the United States coastline. And 00:29:18.819 --> 00:29:21.640 this data point directly exacerbates the crisis 00:29:21.640 --> 00:29:24.019 of rapid intensification and reduced warning 00:29:24.019 --> 00:29:26.039 times that we just discussed. How far out did 00:29:26.039 --> 00:29:28.660 they used to form? Historically, many of the 00:29:28.660 --> 00:29:31.200 most devastating long -lived hurricanes were 00:29:31.200 --> 00:29:34.460 what we call Cape Verde storms. These systems 00:29:34.460 --> 00:29:37.519 originated as atmospheric waves rolling off the 00:29:37.519 --> 00:29:39.779 west coast of Africa near the Cape Verde Islands. 00:29:40.039 --> 00:29:43.000 So literally an ocean away. Yes. They would slowly 00:29:43.000 --> 00:29:45.500 organize and take a week or sometimes 10 days 00:29:45.500 --> 00:29:48.339 to march thousands of miles across the open Atlantic 00:29:48.339 --> 00:29:52.299 Ocean. That vast distance gave forecasters incredible 00:29:52.299 --> 00:29:54.839 lead times. They could observe the storm, model 00:29:54.839 --> 00:29:57.599 its path, and warn the United States days in 00:29:57.599 --> 00:30:00.019 advance. But that map is shrinking now. Trastically. 00:30:00.539 --> 00:30:03.000 As the oceanic waters closer to the North American 00:30:03.000 --> 00:30:05.099 continent absorb massive amounts of excess heat, 00:30:05.559 --> 00:30:07.880 the map of Hurricane Genesis is shrinking. So 00:30:07.880 --> 00:30:10.200 they're popping up right in our backyard. Areas 00:30:10.200 --> 00:30:12.420 in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico that 00:30:12.420 --> 00:30:15.740 were previously too cool or too atmospherically 00:30:15.740 --> 00:30:18.380 hostile to trigger cyclogenesis, which is the 00:30:18.380 --> 00:30:21.480 physical birth of a tropical cyclone, are now 00:30:21.480 --> 00:30:25.220 wipe boiling breeding grounds. And when a storm 00:30:25.220 --> 00:30:27.059 is born just a few hundred miles off the coast 00:30:27.059 --> 00:30:29.500 of the Carolinas, or right in the middle of the 00:30:29.500 --> 00:30:32.740 Gulf of Mexico, you lose those precious days 00:30:32.740 --> 00:30:37.119 of crucial lead time. Exactly. The storm forms, 00:30:37.559 --> 00:30:41.240 intensifies, and makes landfall in a single terrifying 00:30:41.240 --> 00:30:43.650 sequence. But what about the actual tracks of 00:30:43.650 --> 00:30:45.849 the storms once they form? Are they shifting 00:30:45.849 --> 00:30:48.490 east toward the open ocean or west toward the 00:30:48.490 --> 00:30:50.509 coast? When researchers analyzed the last 50 00:30:50.509 --> 00:30:53.029 years of landfall data, they found no massive 00:30:53.029 --> 00:30:55.309 east -west shift for United States landfalls. 00:30:55.470 --> 00:30:57.420 Oh really, it stayed pretty steady. Yes, the 00:30:57.420 --> 00:30:59.420 geographic distribution has stayed remarkably 00:30:59.420 --> 00:31:02.539 almost stubbornly consistent. Roughly two -thirds 00:31:02.539 --> 00:31:05.099 of all landfalling storms hit the Gulf of Mexico 00:31:05.099 --> 00:31:08.039 coastline, and one -third hit the Atlantic coast. 00:31:08.259 --> 00:31:10.000 However, when researchers looked at the data 00:31:10.000 --> 00:31:13.039 on a north versus south axis, they found something 00:31:13.039 --> 00:31:16.140 deeply significant, right? They did. There is 00:31:16.140 --> 00:31:20.180 solid empirical evidence of a slight but measurable 00:31:20.180 --> 00:31:23.640 southward shift. On average, storms are reaching 00:31:23.640 --> 00:31:26.779 their absolute maximum intensity about 21 miles 00:31:26.779 --> 00:31:29.039 further south than they did in previous decades. 00:31:29.500 --> 00:31:32.140 That 21 mile southward shift is a fascinating 00:31:32.140 --> 00:31:35.000 data point because it reveals the hidden mechanics 00:31:35.000 --> 00:31:37.880 of climate change. It is not happening arbitrarily. 00:31:38.180 --> 00:31:41.299 No, it is likely driven by the concept of differential 00:31:41.299 --> 00:31:43.960 heating. Explain differential heating for us. 00:31:44.099 --> 00:31:46.400 Well, the subtropical Atlantic, meaning the ocean 00:31:46.400 --> 00:31:49.380 water further north, is actually warming at a 00:31:49.380 --> 00:31:52.079 faster rate than the deep tropical Atlantic near 00:31:52.079 --> 00:31:54.259 the equator. Okay, so the top part is getting 00:31:54.259 --> 00:31:56.339 hotter faster than the bottom part. Exactly. 00:31:56.500 --> 00:31:58.599 And because the northern waters are heating up 00:31:58.599 --> 00:32:01.079 faster, it alters the atmospheric pressure gradients 00:32:01.079 --> 00:32:03.200 across the entire basin. Which changes the wind. 00:32:03.359 --> 00:32:06.099 Yes, this differential heating subtly changes 00:32:06.099 --> 00:32:08.940 the regional wind patterns, creating an atmospheric 00:32:08.940 --> 00:32:11.079 environment that slightly suppresses the storm 00:32:11.079 --> 00:32:13.279 tracks southward, pushing them closer to the 00:32:13.279 --> 00:32:15.420 Caribbean islands and the northern coast of South 00:32:15.420 --> 00:32:17.640 America before they curve north. But discussing 00:32:17.640 --> 00:32:19.880 how climate change impacts steering currents 00:32:19.880 --> 00:32:22.880 brings us to one of the most compelling, confounding, 00:32:23.319 --> 00:32:25.759 and frankly terrifying contradictions in modern 00:32:25.759 --> 00:32:28.960 meteorological science. Ah yes, the model versus 00:32:28.960 --> 00:32:30.920 reality problem. This is the part of the research 00:32:30.920 --> 00:32:33.809 that genuinely left me in disbelief. we are talking 00:32:33.809 --> 00:32:36.829 about a massive scientific paradox. It really 00:32:36.829 --> 00:32:39.690 is a profound divergence. Look, the world's top 00:32:39.690 --> 00:32:42.789 climate models, the unbelievably complex software 00:32:42.789 --> 00:32:45.170 programs running on the most advanced supercomputers 00:32:45.170 --> 00:32:48.069 on Earth, have a very clear prediction for the 00:32:48.069 --> 00:32:50.410 future. They calculate that as global greenhouse 00:32:50.410 --> 00:32:53.250 gases increase and the planet continues to warm, 00:32:53.970 --> 00:32:56.049 the Earth will fundamentally transition into 00:32:56.049 --> 00:33:00.390 a permanent baseline El Nino -like state. That 00:33:00.390 --> 00:33:02.769 is what the computers insist will happen. And 00:33:02.769 --> 00:33:05.289 if those supercomputers are correct, a permanent 00:33:05.289 --> 00:33:08.009 El Nino state would create massive persistent 00:33:08.009 --> 00:33:10.930 wind shear over the Atlantic. Theoretically, 00:33:11.049 --> 00:33:13.250 this would alter the steering currents and consistently 00:33:13.250 --> 00:33:16.069 push hurricanes further east, guiding them harmlessly 00:33:16.069 --> 00:33:18.309 out into the open ocean and away from the United 00:33:18.309 --> 00:33:20.190 States coastline. Which would be a very welcome 00:33:20.190 --> 00:33:23.579 outcome for the U .S. coast. Right. But observed 00:33:23.579 --> 00:33:25.960 reality over the last 40 years shows the exact 00:33:25.960 --> 00:33:29.039 opposite. The actual physical oceans are not 00:33:29.039 --> 00:33:32.990 moving toward El Nino. They are showing a pronounced, 00:33:33.549 --> 00:33:37.089 measurable trend toward a La Nina -like state. 00:33:37.390 --> 00:33:40.349 It is a profound and highly controversial divergence 00:33:40.349 --> 00:33:42.509 in the scientific community. We are looking at 00:33:42.509 --> 00:33:44.750 a fundamental disagreement between theoretical 00:33:44.750 --> 00:33:47.309 physics and empirical observation. How can the 00:33:47.309 --> 00:33:49.690 computers be that wrong? Well, the computational 00:33:49.690 --> 00:33:52.490 climate models are marvels of human ingenuity. 00:33:52.609 --> 00:33:55.549 They divide the entire Earth's atmosphere and 00:33:55.549 --> 00:33:58.430 oceans into millions of three -dimensional grid 00:33:58.430 --> 00:34:01.450 boxes. Like a massive digi - over the whole planet. 00:34:01.569 --> 00:34:04.309 Yes, and they use incredibly complex physics 00:34:04.309 --> 00:34:07.109 equations to simulate the transfer of heat, momentum, 00:34:07.329 --> 00:34:09.650 and moisture between every single box. These 00:34:09.650 --> 00:34:11.710 models forcefully insist that because the ocean 00:34:11.710 --> 00:34:13.969 absorbs heat differently than land, an El Nino 00:34:13.969 --> 00:34:16.230 -dominant state with a massively warmed eastern 00:34:16.230 --> 00:34:19.550 Pacific is the only logical thermodynamic outcome 00:34:19.550 --> 00:34:21.750 of a warming world. But the ocean isn't listening 00:34:21.750 --> 00:34:24.789 to the math. Not at all. When we look at the 00:34:24.789 --> 00:34:27.929 empirical data, The actual hard temperature readings 00:34:27.929 --> 00:34:30.530 pulled from thousands of ocean buoys, deep water 00:34:30.530 --> 00:34:33.289 probes, and continuous satellite monitoring over 00:34:33.289 --> 00:34:36.829 the past four decades, the Pacific Ocean is behaving 00:34:36.829 --> 00:34:39.860 like a persistent La Nina. It's stubbornly holding 00:34:39.860 --> 00:34:42.599 onto that cold water. Exactly. The cold tongue 00:34:42.599 --> 00:34:45.300 of upwelling water in the Eastern Pacific is 00:34:45.300 --> 00:34:47.659 not vanishing as the models predicted. It is 00:34:47.659 --> 00:34:50.300 persisting, and in some metrics it is actually 00:34:50.300 --> 00:34:52.380 strengthening in ways the supercomputers simply 00:34:52.380 --> 00:34:55.019 do not comprehend. I really need to pause here 00:34:55.019 --> 00:34:57.900 because the magnitude of this blind spot is staggering. 00:34:58.190 --> 00:35:01.829 You are telling me that the most advanced supercomputers 00:35:01.829 --> 00:35:05.530 on Earth, the exact machines we rely on to project 00:35:05.530 --> 00:35:08.070 the future of our climate, the machines that 00:35:08.070 --> 00:35:10.389 dictate global policy and trillions of dollars 00:35:10.389 --> 00:35:12.510 in infrastructure planning, have been predicting 00:35:12.510 --> 00:35:14.670 the exact opposite of what the physical ocean 00:35:14.670 --> 00:35:17.170 is actually doing when it comes to the most important 00:35:17.170 --> 00:35:19.530 weather mechanism on the planet. Yes, that is 00:35:19.530 --> 00:35:22.409 exactly what the data shows. That is just mind 00:35:22.409 --> 00:35:24.880 -blowing. And rather than viewing it as a failure, 00:35:25.500 --> 00:35:27.840 we must view it as a humbling reminder of the 00:35:27.840 --> 00:35:31.320 fundamental chaos and immense almost unfathomable 00:35:31.320 --> 00:35:34.460 complexity of meteorology. Because nature is 00:35:34.460 --> 00:35:37.489 infinitely more complex than code. A supercomputer, 00:35:37.550 --> 00:35:40.269 no matter how powerful, is ultimately only as 00:35:40.269 --> 00:35:42.530 good as the human assumptions programmed into 00:35:42.530 --> 00:35:46.070 its base algorithms. The ocean -atmosphere coupled 00:35:46.070 --> 00:35:50.050 system is so vast, so incredibly intricate, that 00:35:50.050 --> 00:35:52.789 it relies on millions of microscopic interactions. 00:35:53.010 --> 00:35:55.489 Things we can't even properly measure yet. Exactly. 00:35:56.050 --> 00:35:58.809 Our models struggle immensely with feedback loops. 00:35:59.309 --> 00:36:02.010 For instance, how do changing temperatures alter 00:36:02.010 --> 00:36:04.269 the formation of specific types of low -level 00:36:04.269 --> 00:36:06.760 clouds? How do those clouds reflect sunlight. 00:36:07.039 --> 00:36:08.940 Or how pollution plays into it. Right. How do 00:36:08.940 --> 00:36:11.559 microscopic atmospheric aerosols alter rainfall? 00:36:11.980 --> 00:36:14.239 How do microscopic changes in ocean salinity 00:36:14.239 --> 00:36:16.480 affect deep water currents that take thousands 00:36:16.480 --> 00:36:18.519 of years to circulate? So the models just can't 00:36:18.519 --> 00:36:20.699 see the full picture. The supercomputers clearly 00:36:20.699 --> 00:36:23.119 have blind spots regarding these localized feedback 00:36:23.119 --> 00:36:26.079 loops. As scientists, we must prepare the public 00:36:26.079 --> 00:36:28.219 for the ocean we actually have, not the ocean 00:36:28.219 --> 00:36:30.159 the computer models arrogantly predict we should 00:36:30.159 --> 00:36:32.199 have. The implications of that are staggering. 00:36:32.840 --> 00:36:36.239 If observed reality continues to completely defy 00:36:36.239 --> 00:36:39.219 the supercomputer models, and the global climate 00:36:39.219 --> 00:36:42.780 stays locked in this persistent La Nina trending 00:36:42.780 --> 00:36:45.639 pattern over the long term, what does that mean 00:36:45.639 --> 00:36:48.280 for the physical hurricane tracks? It means we 00:36:48.280 --> 00:36:50.840 face a much higher spread level. It means the 00:36:50.840 --> 00:36:53.519 exact opposite of the supercomputer's optimistic 00:36:53.519 --> 00:36:56.079 prediction. It means the Caribbean Sea and the 00:36:56.079 --> 00:36:59.139 Gulf of Mexico will likely see a massive sustained 00:36:59.139 --> 00:37:01.599 increase in hurricane activity while the Atlantic 00:37:01.599 --> 00:37:04.300 coast sees very little change. And it concentrates 00:37:04.300 --> 00:37:07.179 the highest levels of danger squarely on regions 00:37:07.179 --> 00:37:10.179 that are already incredibly vulnerable to storm 00:37:10.179 --> 00:37:12.480 surge and rapid intensification. Which brings 00:37:12.480 --> 00:37:14.559 us back to those shallow coastal shells we talked 00:37:14.559 --> 00:37:17.000 about. Exactly. And even when we do experience 00:37:17.000 --> 00:37:19.639 periodic El Nino years, like the one forecasted 00:37:19.639 --> 00:37:23.659 for 2026, we cannot view them as resets. What 00:37:23.659 --> 00:37:25.840 do you mean by a reset? We must remember that 00:37:25.840 --> 00:37:28.360 El Nino's excess heat does not simply vanish 00:37:28.360 --> 00:37:30.380 into the freezing void of space at the end of 00:37:30.380 --> 00:37:32.159 the year. Oh, because of the greenhouse effect. 00:37:32.480 --> 00:37:35.699 Yes. Because of the steadily increasing concentration 00:37:35.699 --> 00:37:38.099 of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, acting 00:37:38.099 --> 00:37:40.900 like an insulating blanket, the Earth cannot 00:37:40.900 --> 00:37:43.619 effectively radiate that excess heat away before 00:37:43.619 --> 00:37:45.760 the next cycle begins. So where does the heat 00:37:45.760 --> 00:37:48.599 go? The immense thermal energy from a strong 00:37:48.599 --> 00:37:50.900 El Nino year gets trapped in the deep ocean. 00:37:51.119 --> 00:37:54.119 It pushes the entire baseline temperature of 00:37:54.119 --> 00:37:56.699 the earth permanently upward. Like a ratchet 00:37:56.699 --> 00:37:58.960 that only turns one way. It is a one -way ratcheting 00:37:58.960 --> 00:38:02.269 effect. Every single strong El Nino event leaves 00:38:02.269 --> 00:38:04.869 the global ocean permanently warmer than it found 00:38:04.869 --> 00:38:07.250 it. But even a quiet year leaves us worse off 00:38:07.250 --> 00:38:09.510 for the next one. This continuous trapping of 00:38:09.510 --> 00:38:12.309 heat leads to broken climate records year after 00:38:12.309 --> 00:38:15.329 year, and it provides an ever expanding boiling 00:38:15.329 --> 00:38:18.250 reservoir of fuel for future hurricane savings. 00:38:18.670 --> 00:38:21.809 It is a sobering, incredibly heavy reality. And, 00:38:21.809 --> 00:38:24.500 you know, it brings us to a final chilling implication 00:38:24.500 --> 00:38:26.559 of all the atmospheric research we have discussed 00:38:26.559 --> 00:38:28.719 today. We really need to look at how all these 00:38:28.719 --> 00:38:31.480 compounding factors, the warmer water, the shifting 00:38:31.480 --> 00:38:34.400 genesis points, the rapid intensification, converge 00:38:34.400 --> 00:38:36.639 to change how we actually live on the coast. 00:38:36.840 --> 00:38:39.960 The physical reality of coastal living is fundamentally 00:38:39.960 --> 00:38:42.920 changing. Because if hurricanes continue to form 00:38:42.920 --> 00:38:45.760 closer and closer to the coastline, robbing us 00:38:45.760 --> 00:38:47.940 of the long track warning times. Yes. And if 00:38:47.940 --> 00:38:50.360 the terrifying mechanics of rapid intensification 00:38:50.360 --> 00:38:53.920 fueled by a literally boiling Gulf of Mexico 00:38:53.920 --> 00:38:56.780 can turn a disorganized rainstorm into a category 00:38:56.780 --> 00:39:00.059 four or five monster overnight. The entire concept 00:39:00.059 --> 00:39:03.079 of days of warning might become a relic of the 00:39:03.079 --> 00:39:05.679 past. We are losing the luxury of time. We may 00:39:05.679 --> 00:39:08.500 be moving rapidly out of an era defined by highly 00:39:08.500 --> 00:39:12.519 organized multi -day state -run coastal evacuations. 00:39:12.920 --> 00:39:14.980 We might be moving into a terrifying new era 00:39:14.980 --> 00:39:17.579 where shelter -in -place becomes the only viable 00:39:17.579 --> 00:39:20.539 option simply because the storm forms and escalates 00:39:20.539 --> 00:39:22.619 far too fast for millions of people to physically 00:39:22.619 --> 00:39:25.460 run. The logistics of mass evacuation are already 00:39:25.460 --> 00:39:27.360 incredibly strained. Think about the logistical 00:39:27.360 --> 00:39:30.150 nightmare of a major metropolitan area. You simply 00:39:30.150 --> 00:39:32.690 cannot evacuate a city the size of Campa or Fort 00:39:32.690 --> 00:39:35.769 Myers in 12 hours. It is physically impossible. 00:39:36.030 --> 00:39:37.789 The highway infrastructure cannot handle it. 00:39:37.880 --> 00:39:39.780 The interstates would instantly become parking 00:39:39.780 --> 00:39:42.099 lots. You would have millions of people trapped 00:39:42.099 --> 00:39:44.619 in their cars out in the open, sitting in gridlock, 00:39:44.980 --> 00:39:46.840 when the catastrophic winds and the 10 -foot 00:39:46.840 --> 00:39:49.780 storm surge finally arrive. That is the loaded 00:39:49.780 --> 00:39:51.960 spring we are dealing with. That is the dark, 00:39:52.159 --> 00:39:54.699 high -stakes road we are driving down with our 00:39:54.699 --> 00:39:57.460 new high -beam forecast cones. We need to understand 00:39:57.460 --> 00:40:00.199 the mechanics of the ocean, respect the limits 00:40:00.199 --> 00:40:03.380 of our forecasting tools, and be prepared like 00:40:03.380 --> 00:40:06.829 never before. Well said. Please remember to like, 00:40:06.989 --> 00:40:09.949 follow, comment, and rate the podcast. It really 00:40:09.949 --> 00:40:12.449 helps us get this vital meteorological information 00:40:12.449 --> 00:40:15.409 out to the people who need it most. And be sure 00:40:15.409 --> 00:40:18.309 to follow meteorologist Rob Jones for continuous 00:40:18.309 --> 00:40:20.730 expert updates throughout the season. You can 00:40:20.730 --> 00:40:22.789 find him on Instagram by searching Meteorologist, 00:40:23.289 --> 00:40:26.309 on TikTok at TV Meteorologist, and on YouTube 00:40:26.309 --> 00:40:28.469 by following Rob Jones Hurricane, where you can 00:40:28.469 --> 00:40:30.650 also find the full Meteorology Matters podcast 00:40:30.650 --> 00:40:33.949 playlist to catch up on previous episodes. You've 00:40:33.949 --> 00:40:36.269 been listening to Meteorology Matters, created 00:40:36.269 --> 00:40:39.210 by meteorologist Rob Jones. Thanks for listening, 00:40:39.730 --> 00:40:41.750 and remember, meteorology always matters.