WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.040 I want you to imagine something for a moment. 00:00:03.339 --> 00:00:06.419 Picture yourself packing your bags for a late 00:00:06.419 --> 00:00:09.699 season ski trip in the Northeast. You are pulling 00:00:09.699 --> 00:00:13.560 out your heavy coats, your thermal base layers, 00:00:13.859 --> 00:00:15.539 your insulated gloves. By getting ready for the 00:00:15.539 --> 00:00:18.280 cold? Exactly. Because the temperatures outside 00:00:18.280 --> 00:00:21.839 are persistently below normal. And the climatological 00:00:21.839 --> 00:00:24.039 data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:00:24.039 --> 00:00:26.800 Administration, or NOAA, shows it's expected 00:00:26.800 --> 00:00:28.820 to stay that way right through the end of March. 00:00:29.160 --> 00:00:30.940 Yeah, it feels like the absolute dead of winter. 00:00:31.239 --> 00:00:33.640 It really does. So you zip up your suitcase, 00:00:34.140 --> 00:00:36.579 you sit down on the couch, and you flip on the 00:00:36.579 --> 00:00:39.479 television to catch the morning updates. And 00:00:39.479 --> 00:00:42.060 what you see on the screen makes absolutely no 00:00:42.060 --> 00:00:44.250 logical sense. Not at all. You're looking at 00:00:44.250 --> 00:00:47.189 footage of chest high churning floodwaters completely 00:00:47.189 --> 00:00:50.350 washing away critical roadways in Hawaii. And 00:00:50.350 --> 00:00:53.009 then the news anchor cuts to a live weather station 00:00:53.009 --> 00:00:55.810 feed from Arizona. The temperature gauge is reading 00:00:55.810 --> 00:00:59.049 an astonishing 112 degrees Fahrenheit. Which 00:00:59.049 --> 00:01:02.689 is just staggering. It's wild. The weather map 00:01:02.689 --> 00:01:04.849 feels like it has been turned completely upside 00:01:04.849 --> 00:01:08.120 down. You are watching three distinct violent 00:01:08.120 --> 00:01:10.500 seasons playing out simultaneously across the 00:01:10.500 --> 00:01:12.780 same country. Yeah, it's a massive atmospheric 00:01:12.780 --> 00:01:15.540 collision. Welcome to Meteorology Matters, the 00:01:15.540 --> 00:01:18.079 podcast that dives deep into the science, chaos, 00:01:18.659 --> 00:01:20.599 and stories behind the weather that shapes our 00:01:20.599 --> 00:01:23.150 world. This show was created by meteorologist 00:01:23.150 --> 00:01:26.049 Rob Jones. Now let's get into today's episode 00:01:26.049 --> 00:01:28.829 of Meteorology Matters. So today we are looking 00:01:28.829 --> 00:01:32.129 at a massive stack of recent meteorological research. 00:01:32.310 --> 00:01:34.349 Right, and structural engineering reports on 00:01:34.349 --> 00:01:37.069 Pacific hydrology, along with some rapid climate 00:01:37.069 --> 00:01:39.189 attribution studies. Our mission for today's 00:01:39.189 --> 00:01:42.349 exploration is to understand the invisible atmospheric 00:01:42.349 --> 00:01:44.890 machinery connecting all of this. Yeah, connecting 00:01:44.890 --> 00:01:48.170 a freezing northeast, a drowning Hawaii, and 00:01:48.170 --> 00:01:51.590 a baking southwest. Because the raw numbers emerging 00:01:51.590 --> 00:01:54.510 from the American Southwest right now, they're 00:01:54.510 --> 00:01:57.150 not just unusual. No, they're not. They are fundamentally 00:01:57.150 --> 00:01:59.790 rewriting the established meteorological record 00:01:59.790 --> 00:02:02.250 books. I mean, we are looking at observations 00:02:02.250 --> 00:02:05.230 from places like Martinez Lake, Arizona, Fort 00:02:05.230 --> 00:02:09.330 Yuma, Arizona, Buttercup, California, Squaw Lake, 00:02:09.550 --> 00:02:12.250 California. Right. All of these locations hit 00:02:12.250 --> 00:02:15.319 exactly 112 degrees Fahrenheit. Yeah. And for 00:02:15.319 --> 00:02:17.560 those tracking the data internationally, that 00:02:17.560 --> 00:02:20.300 is 44 .4 degrees Celsius. And this happened on 00:02:20.300 --> 00:02:23.740 March 20th. Right. And to truly comprehend the 00:02:23.740 --> 00:02:26.680 magnitude of that number, you must examine the 00:02:26.680 --> 00:02:28.939 historical context of temperature data collection 00:02:28.939 --> 00:02:31.599 in North America. OK, let's unpack this. What 00:02:31.599 --> 00:02:34.289 was the previous baseline? Well, prior to this 00:02:34.289 --> 00:02:37.370 specific atmospheric event, the highest temperature 00:02:37.370 --> 00:02:39.949 ever reliably recorded in the United States during 00:02:39.949 --> 00:02:43.270 the month of March was 108 degrees. 108. Yeah. 00:02:43.710 --> 00:02:45.849 And that previous record was established way 00:02:45.849 --> 00:02:49.770 back in 1954 down in Texas. Wow. OK, so look, 00:02:50.110 --> 00:02:52.270 breaking a weather record by a fraction of a 00:02:52.270 --> 00:02:55.169 degree, that is a notable event. Sure. But breaking 00:02:55.169 --> 00:02:57.610 a 70 -year -old national record by four full 00:02:57.610 --> 00:03:00.689 degrees, that is an absolute statistical anomaly. 00:03:00.889 --> 00:03:03.469 It really is. I mean, we are not looking at a 00:03:03.469 --> 00:03:06.270 single malfunctioning weather station sitting 00:03:06.270 --> 00:03:09.030 too close to a paved parking lot in the desert. 00:03:09.169 --> 00:03:11.550 Right, this isn't a localized fluke. Not at all. 00:03:12.270 --> 00:03:14.409 We are looking at recent meteorological research 00:03:14.409 --> 00:03:16.990 confirming that eight different states have broken 00:03:16.990 --> 00:03:20.009 their all -time March heat records. Eight states? 00:03:20.189 --> 00:03:22.550 Yeah, just during the life cycle of this single 00:03:22.550 --> 00:03:25.490 high -pressure system. The spatial footprint 00:03:25.490 --> 00:03:28.090 of this heat dome is staggering. It's covering 00:03:28.090 --> 00:03:30.409 hundreds of thousands of square miles. Exactly. 00:03:30.969 --> 00:03:34.150 But the most illustrative data point regarding 00:03:34.150 --> 00:03:36.889 the intensity of this system is actually found 00:03:36.889 --> 00:03:39.409 at a much higher elevation. Oh, you're talking 00:03:39.409 --> 00:03:41.750 about Flagstaff. Yes. We need to look at the 00:03:41.750 --> 00:03:44.250 data from Flagstaff, Arizona. Right. So for context, 00:03:44.509 --> 00:03:47.169 Flagstaff sits at an elevation of roughly 7 ,000 00:03:47.169 --> 00:03:49.849 feet. It is the gateway to the Grand Canyon. 00:03:50.009 --> 00:03:52.550 It's surrounded by ponderosa pine forests. It's 00:03:52.550 --> 00:03:55.530 normally quite cool. Exactly. But during this 00:03:55.530 --> 00:03:59.250 event, Flagstaff hit 84 degrees. Which is wild. 00:03:59.310 --> 00:04:01.569 They demolished their previous all time March 00:04:01.569 --> 00:04:05.569 record by 11 full degrees. 11 degrees. Yeah. 00:04:05.819 --> 00:04:08.699 I mean, when a record is broken by 11 degrees, 00:04:09.340 --> 00:04:11.900 the historical baseline is no longer acting as 00:04:11.900 --> 00:04:14.659 a reliable predictor. Right. And it gets crazier. 00:04:15.120 --> 00:04:18.220 That temperature of 84 degrees in March actually 00:04:18.220 --> 00:04:20.959 beat Flagstaff's all -time record for the month 00:04:20.959 --> 00:04:23.920 of April, too. Wait, really? Yeah, it beat the 00:04:23.920 --> 00:04:26.579 April record by four degrees. Oh, wow. It is 00:04:26.579 --> 00:04:29.459 a complete temporal displacement of the seasons. 00:04:30.500 --> 00:04:34.420 The atmosphere is producing late May or early 00:04:34.420 --> 00:04:37.420 June temperatures before the spring season has 00:04:37.420 --> 00:04:39.879 officially even begun. Yeah, because the timing 00:04:39.879 --> 00:04:42.600 is the most critical factor here. These record 00:04:42.600 --> 00:04:44.480 shattering temperatures occurred at the very 00:04:44.480 --> 00:04:47.319 end of astronomical winter. The vernal equinox, 00:04:47.319 --> 00:04:50.040 which marks the official astronomical start of 00:04:50.040 --> 00:04:52.920 spring, happened on March 20th. Exactly. So these 00:04:52.920 --> 00:04:55.139 112 degree readings are technically happening 00:04:55.139 --> 00:04:58.060 in the winter season. Yeah, winter heat. So what 00:04:58.060 --> 00:05:00.600 are the physical mechanics required for the atmosphere 00:05:00.600 --> 00:05:03.480 to produce that kind of heat in March? It requires 00:05:03.480 --> 00:05:06.639 a deep explanation. It does. So basically we 00:05:06.639 --> 00:05:09.000 are dealing with a massive ridge of high pressure. 00:05:10.029 --> 00:05:12.970 In atmospheric science, meteorologists measure 00:05:12.970 --> 00:05:15.949 the strength and intensity of these high -pressure 00:05:15.949 --> 00:05:18.829 ridges by looking at specific pressure levels 00:05:18.829 --> 00:05:20.850 high above the surface. Right. You don't just 00:05:20.850 --> 00:05:23.449 look at the ground. Exactly. Specifically, we 00:05:23.449 --> 00:05:26.790 look at the 500 millibar height. And for this 00:05:26.790 --> 00:05:30.350 particular event, the 500 millibar height maxed 00:05:30.350 --> 00:05:34.449 out at 598 decameters. OK, let's break down the 00:05:34.449 --> 00:05:36.430 physical reality of those measurements for everyone 00:05:36.430 --> 00:05:38.870 listening. Sure. Why do meteorologists focus 00:05:38.870 --> 00:05:41.649 on the 500 millibar level and what does a height 00:05:41.649 --> 00:05:44.910 of 598 tachometers actually look like in the 00:05:44.910 --> 00:05:48.740 sky? Well, atmospheric pressure at sea level 00:05:48.740 --> 00:05:52.560 is roughly 1 ,000 millibars. OK. As you go higher 00:05:52.560 --> 00:05:54.779 into the sky, the pressure decreases because 00:05:54.779 --> 00:05:57.399 there is literally less air weighing down from 00:05:57.399 --> 00:06:00.199 above. Makes sense. So the 500 millibar level 00:06:00.199 --> 00:06:02.319 is incredibly important because it represents 00:06:02.319 --> 00:06:05.300 the exact halfway point of the atmosphere's mass. 00:06:05.339 --> 00:06:08.339 Oh, I see. Yeah. Half of the Earth's atmosphere 00:06:08.339 --> 00:06:10.779 lies below this level, and half lies above it. 00:06:10.920 --> 00:06:14.040 So meteorologists launch weather balloons, radio 00:06:14.040 --> 00:06:16.459 sands, twice a day from stations all over the 00:06:16.459 --> 00:06:18.899 world to find out exactly how high off the ground 00:06:18.899 --> 00:06:21.199 this halfway point is. And the height of that 00:06:21.199 --> 00:06:23.259 halfway point changes based on the temperature 00:06:23.259 --> 00:06:26.379 of the air, right? It changes drastically. Cold 00:06:26.379 --> 00:06:29.839 air is dense and compact. Like it shrinks. Exactly. 00:06:30.220 --> 00:06:33.980 When the air mass is brutally cold, the 500 millibar 00:06:33.980 --> 00:06:37.160 level might be found only 5 ,100 meters off the 00:06:37.160 --> 00:06:41.040 ground. OK. But warm air expands. air mass heats 00:06:41.040 --> 00:06:43.839 up, it literally pushes the upper layers of the 00:06:43.839 --> 00:06:46.800 atmosphere higher into space. So it inflates 00:06:46.800 --> 00:06:49.360 like a balloon. Yeah, exactly. So when the weather 00:06:49.360 --> 00:06:51.560 balloons were launched during the Southwest heat 00:06:51.560 --> 00:06:56.079 event, they had to travel 5980 meters or 598 00:06:56.079 --> 00:06:58.660 decameters before the pressure dropped to 500 00:06:58.660 --> 00:07:01.240 millibars. Wow. So that height indicates a column 00:07:01.240 --> 00:07:05.040 of air that is exceptionally warm, dense, and 00:07:05.040 --> 00:07:07.800 expansive. Yes. Statistically, a ridge reaching 00:07:07.800 --> 00:07:12.029 598 decameters and March is 3 .5 to 4 standard 00:07:12.029 --> 00:07:14.769 deviations above the climatological normal. 3 00:07:14.769 --> 00:07:19.029 .5 to 4 standard deviations? Yeah. If you visualize 00:07:19.029 --> 00:07:23.110 a bell curve of historical weather data, The 00:07:23.110 --> 00:07:25.930 vast majority of normal spring weather falls 00:07:25.930 --> 00:07:28.189 right in the middle bulge of that curve. Right, 00:07:28.250 --> 00:07:31.129 the fat part of the bell. Exactly. An event that 00:07:31.129 --> 00:07:33.610 is four standard deviations away from the mean 00:07:33.610 --> 00:07:37.149 is sitting at the absolute razor -thin microscopic 00:07:37.149 --> 00:07:40.389 edge of the curve. It is an extreme, unprecedented 00:07:40.389 --> 00:07:43.209 outlier. Totally. And the human impact of an 00:07:43.209 --> 00:07:45.750 atmospheric outlier of this magnitude is immediate. 00:07:45.810 --> 00:07:48.689 It's not just numbers on a chart. No. We are 00:07:48.689 --> 00:07:51.129 looking at data showing more than 18 million 00:07:51.129 --> 00:07:54.069 Americans were placed under extreme heat warnings 00:07:54.069 --> 00:07:57.350 simultaneously. 18 million. 18 million people 00:07:57.350 --> 00:07:59.990 waking up in the final days of astronomical winter 00:07:59.990 --> 00:08:02.589 to lethal peak summer conditions. And, you know, 00:08:02.810 --> 00:08:04.870 the societal infrastructure, the economic rhythms, 00:08:05.029 --> 00:08:07.470 and the biological rhythms of a city are simply 00:08:07.470 --> 00:08:10.290 not calibrated for that kind of environmental 00:08:10.290 --> 00:08:12.629 shock. Right. Consider the greater Phoenix area, 00:08:12.930 --> 00:08:15.209 commonly referred to as the Valley. Sure. March 00:08:15.209 --> 00:08:17.829 in Phoenix is traditionally a massive destination 00:08:17.829 --> 00:08:21.160 for outdoor events. specifically weddings. Oh 00:08:21.160 --> 00:08:23.160 yeah, it's peak wedding season there. Exactly. 00:08:23.560 --> 00:08:26.660 People book these venues years in advance because 00:08:26.660 --> 00:08:30.879 the historical climatological data promises beautiful, 00:08:31.199 --> 00:08:34.559 mild, 75 degree weather. Right. But instead you 00:08:34.559 --> 00:08:37.379 have thousands of couples and event planners 00:08:37.379 --> 00:08:41.940 forced into frantic, incredibly costly, last 00:08:41.940 --> 00:08:44.080 minute venue changes. Because you can't be outside. 00:08:44.279 --> 00:08:47.559 No. It is physically dangerous to be standing 00:08:47.559 --> 00:08:50.759 outside in a dark tuxedo or a heavy layered gown 00:08:50.759 --> 00:08:53.299 when the ambient air temperature is baking at 00:08:53.299 --> 00:08:56.299 over 100 degrees. Yeah, the human body. is highly 00:08:56.299 --> 00:08:59.000 susceptible to heat illness when forced to endure 00:08:59.000 --> 00:09:01.500 direct solar radiation, high ambient temperatures, 00:09:01.899 --> 00:09:04.440 without any acclimatization period. Exactly. 00:09:04.519 --> 00:09:06.720 And the disruption extends far beyond weddings. 00:09:08.100 --> 00:09:09.919 It impacts construction schedules, agricultural 00:09:09.919 --> 00:09:12.480 harvesting, and the basic operational capacity 00:09:12.480 --> 00:09:15.659 of the municipal power grid. Right. And EPA guidelines 00:09:15.659 --> 00:09:18.480 specifically warn about exposure risks for outdoor 00:09:18.480 --> 00:09:20.980 workers under these kinds of sudden extreme heat 00:09:20.980 --> 00:09:23.559 laws. Absolutely. But as oppressive and disruptive 00:09:23.559 --> 00:09:26.539 as this heat is, It is not acting as an isolated 00:09:26.539 --> 00:09:28.980 local phenomenon. No, it's all connected. Right. 00:09:29.679 --> 00:09:33.179 This massive expanding high pressure dome over 00:09:33.179 --> 00:09:36.980 the American Southwest is deeply mechanically 00:09:36.980 --> 00:09:39.460 connected to other events happening across the 00:09:39.460 --> 00:09:42.379 globe. Yeah. To truly understand why the Western 00:09:42.379 --> 00:09:44.519 United States is baking like a desert furnace, 00:09:44.919 --> 00:09:47.299 we have to look thousands of miles across the 00:09:47.299 --> 00:09:50.000 Pacific Ocean. We really do. We have to examine 00:09:50.000 --> 00:09:53.019 a state that is actively drowning under a catastrophic 00:09:53.019 --> 00:09:56.340 volume of water. we have to look at Hawaii. What's 00:09:56.340 --> 00:09:59.799 fascinating here is the sheer contrast The situation 00:09:59.799 --> 00:10:02.440 currently unfolding on the island of Oahu is 00:10:02.440 --> 00:10:04.899 a full scale state of emergency. Yeah, we are 00:10:04.899 --> 00:10:08.419 seeing catastrophic, rapid onset flooding. Emergency 00:10:08.419 --> 00:10:10.659 management officials are labeling this the worst 00:10:10.659 --> 00:10:12.779 flooding event the state has witnessed since 00:10:12.779 --> 00:10:15.500 the early 2000s. The sheer volume and intensity 00:10:15.500 --> 00:10:18.159 of the rainfall are overwhelming both the natural 00:10:18.159 --> 00:10:20.419 topographical drainage basins of the islands 00:10:20.419 --> 00:10:23.039 and the artificial human engineered infrastructure 00:10:23.039 --> 00:10:25.720 simultaneously. Let's talk about the human toll 00:10:25.720 --> 00:10:27.919 that overwhelmed the infrastructure. We have 00:10:27.919 --> 00:10:30.529 reports of over 230 swift water rescues taking 00:10:30.529 --> 00:10:33.070 place. Over 200? That's massive. Think about 00:10:33.070 --> 00:10:36.210 the jarring contrast of that reality. On the 00:10:36.210 --> 00:10:38.690 West Coast, you have emergency rooms treating 00:10:38.690 --> 00:10:40.970 patients for severe heat exhaustion and heat 00:10:40.970 --> 00:10:44.289 stroke. Right. Simultaneously, in Hawaii, first 00:10:44.289 --> 00:10:46.669 responders are utilizing boats and helicopters 00:10:46.669 --> 00:10:49.470 to pull people from rising, churning floodwaters. 00:10:50.230 --> 00:10:52.669 Roughly 10 individuals have been hospitalized 00:10:52.669 --> 00:10:56.340 for hypothermia. And hypothermia in a tropical 00:10:56.340 --> 00:10:59.159 climate like Hawaii really underscores the severe 00:10:59.159 --> 00:11:01.960 and prolonged nature of the exposure. Yeah, how 00:11:01.960 --> 00:11:04.360 does that even happen there? Well, when the human 00:11:04.360 --> 00:11:06.860 body is submerged in fast moving flood waters, 00:11:07.059 --> 00:11:09.759 heat is drawn away from the core exponentially 00:11:09.759 --> 00:11:13.159 faster than it is in cold air. Wow. And the focal 00:11:13.159 --> 00:11:15.980 point of the danger on Oahu right now, the specific 00:11:15.980 --> 00:11:18.320 crisis keeping civil defense managers awake at 00:11:18.320 --> 00:11:21.720 night, is the Wahiawa Dam. Yes, the Wahiawa Dam. 00:11:21.740 --> 00:11:24.960 This is a massive earthen structure that is 120 00:11:24.960 --> 00:11:27.480 years old. The emergency alerts coming from state 00:11:27.480 --> 00:11:29.779 officials indicate the dam is at imminent risk 00:11:29.779 --> 00:11:33.159 of failure. Water is actively uncontrollably 00:11:33.159 --> 00:11:35.360 running over the emergency spillway. Right, and 00:11:35.360 --> 00:11:37.840 the Wahiawa Dam represents a critical vulnerability 00:11:37.840 --> 00:11:39.940 in the historical infrastructure of the region. 00:11:40.320 --> 00:11:43.659 How so? Well, Hawaii possesses one hundred and 00:11:43.659 --> 00:11:47.639 thirty two state regulated dams, and a significant 00:11:47.639 --> 00:11:50.080 portion of these structures, including Wahiawa, 00:11:50.379 --> 00:11:53.000 were not designed using modern hydrological modeling, 00:11:53.039 --> 00:11:55.899 nor were they built to withstand the rainfall 00:11:55.899 --> 00:11:58.080 rates we are seeing in the current climatological 00:11:58.080 --> 00:12:01.000 data. They were constructed more than a century 00:12:01.000 --> 00:12:04.279 ago, primarily to support the massive irrigation 00:12:04.279 --> 00:12:07.500 needs of the sugarcane industry. So they were 00:12:07.500 --> 00:12:11.750 engineered to capture and hold predictable seasonal 00:12:11.750 --> 00:12:14.330 rainfall for agricultural use. Exactly. They 00:12:14.330 --> 00:12:16.929 were absolutely not engineered to serve as flood 00:12:16.929 --> 00:12:19.649 control monoliths against the kind of catastrophic 00:12:19.649 --> 00:12:22.570 concentrated deluge we are watching unfold today. 00:12:22.789 --> 00:12:25.250 Right. And when a century -old earthen dam reaches 00:12:25.250 --> 00:12:27.730 its maximum capacity and the emergency spillway 00:12:27.730 --> 00:12:30.789 is fully engaged, the structural integrity of 00:12:30.789 --> 00:12:33.549 the entire embankment is tested to its absolute 00:12:33.549 --> 00:12:35.909 physical limits. Because it's just dirt and rock, 00:12:35.990 --> 00:12:38.990 basically. Exactly. An earthen dam is essentially 00:12:38.990 --> 00:12:42.529 a massive, highly compacted mound of soil, clay, 00:12:42.850 --> 00:12:46.049 and rock. If the water overtopping the spillway 00:12:46.049 --> 00:12:48.990 begins to erode the downstream face of the dam, 00:12:49.129 --> 00:12:51.889 a process known as headward erosion, the structure 00:12:51.889 --> 00:12:55.710 can unravel and fail with terrifying speed. And 00:12:55.710 --> 00:12:57.590 the authorities in the ground are acutely aware 00:12:57.590 --> 00:13:00.879 of that physics. We are seeing literal Leave 00:13:00.879 --> 00:13:04.120 now evacuation orders, send in all capital letters, 00:13:04.600 --> 00:13:06.899 push directly to the mobile phones of over 4 00:13:06.899 --> 00:13:09.320 ,000 residents in the downstream communities 00:13:09.320 --> 00:13:11.759 of Wailua and Halewa. Yeah, the warning language 00:13:11.759 --> 00:13:14.519 being utilized by emergency managers is incredibly 00:13:14.519 --> 00:13:17.059 stark. They're explicitly citing the threat of 00:13:17.059 --> 00:13:19.929 life -threatening, fast -moving water. If the 00:13:19.929 --> 00:13:22.669 Waiao Dam breaches, we are looking at a catastrophic, 00:13:22.990 --> 00:13:25.269 instantaneous release of millions of tons of 00:13:25.269 --> 00:13:27.490 potential energy. Because a catastrophic dam 00:13:27.490 --> 00:13:29.590 failure does not just release water, it creates 00:13:29.590 --> 00:13:32.210 a high velocity debris flow. Right. You are talking 00:13:32.210 --> 00:13:34.309 about a towering wall of mud, uprooted trees, 00:13:34.590 --> 00:13:36.710 destroyed vehicles, and pulverized infrastructure 00:13:36.710 --> 00:13:39.190 moving rapidly through densely populated residential 00:13:39.190 --> 00:13:42.350 areas. The destructive force is absolute. And 00:13:42.350 --> 00:13:44.690 the visuals coming out of the rescue operations 00:13:44.690 --> 00:13:47.679 are already harrowing. The National Guard has 00:13:47.679 --> 00:13:50.320 been fully deployed. Yeah, I saw that. In one 00:13:50.320 --> 00:13:52.860 instance, they had to utilize heavy -lift helicopters 00:13:52.860 --> 00:13:56.320 to airlift 72 children and adults from a spring 00:13:56.320 --> 00:14:00.100 break youth camp. 72 people. Yeah. The floodwaters 00:14:00.100 --> 00:14:03.399 rose so rapidly and with such intensity that 00:14:03.399 --> 00:14:06.039 all terrestrial exit roads were completely severed. 00:14:06.059 --> 00:14:08.360 Wow. You have communities dealing with chest 00:14:08.360 --> 00:14:11.870 -high, incredibly toxic muddy water. inundating 00:14:11.870 --> 00:14:14.730 their living rooms. Critical arterial roadways 00:14:14.730 --> 00:14:17.409 have been completely washed into the sea, severing 00:14:17.409 --> 00:14:19.250 supply chains. It's devastating. We are looking 00:14:19.250 --> 00:14:21.649 at millions of dollars in damages to residential 00:14:21.649 --> 00:14:24.610 and commercial properties. The crisis even extended 00:14:24.610 --> 00:14:28.210 to a major medical facility on Maui, which sustained 00:14:28.210 --> 00:14:31.070 such extensive water damage that emergency protocols 00:14:31.070 --> 00:14:33.429 had to be enacted to relocate vulnerable patients. 00:14:34.090 --> 00:14:37.370 And the logistical complexity of evacuating a 00:14:37.370 --> 00:14:39.850 hospital during a severe flood event is immense. 00:14:40.490 --> 00:14:43.009 imagine. Moving intensive care patients who are 00:14:43.009 --> 00:14:45.950 dependent on ventilators and continuous intravenous 00:14:45.950 --> 00:14:49.509 medications down flooded impassable streets strains 00:14:49.509 --> 00:14:52.250 the municipal emergency medical response apparatus 00:14:52.250 --> 00:14:55.049 to the breaking point. Okay so we have established 00:14:55.049 --> 00:14:58.970 two absolute terrifying extremes. Right. We have 00:14:58.970 --> 00:15:02.139 a 120 year old earthen dam pushed to the brink 00:15:02.139 --> 00:15:04.940 of failure, resulting in hypothermia rescues 00:15:04.940 --> 00:15:07.980 in the flooded streets of Hawaii. Yes. Simultaneously, 00:15:08.419 --> 00:15:12.919 we have 112 -degree record -shattering, lethal 00:15:12.919 --> 00:15:17.039 heat baking the deserts of Arizona. And hovering 00:15:17.039 --> 00:15:18.779 in the background of all this, we have a freezing, 00:15:19.320 --> 00:15:21.379 persistently below -normal weather pattern locked 00:15:21.379 --> 00:15:23.419 over the Northeast. Right, the third piece of 00:15:23.419 --> 00:15:27.200 the puzzle. We stop. Yep. Are you looking at 00:15:27.200 --> 00:15:29.539 the climatological data and telling me that catastrophic 00:15:29.539 --> 00:15:32.779 rain in Hawaii is actively, mechanically creating 00:15:32.779 --> 00:15:36.440 heat in Arizona? Yes. That defies basic thermodynamics 00:15:36.440 --> 00:15:39.179 from a layman's perspective. How does freezing 00:15:39.179 --> 00:15:41.000 wet water falling from the sky in the middle 00:15:41.000 --> 00:15:42.740 of the Pacific Ocean generate thermal energy 00:15:42.740 --> 00:15:45.279 that bakes a desert 3 ,000 miles away? If we 00:15:45.279 --> 00:15:47.789 connect this to the bigger picture... It sounds 00:15:47.789 --> 00:15:50.210 entirely counterintuitive, but it is one of the 00:15:50.210 --> 00:15:52.830 most powerful physical processes on the planet. 00:15:52.950 --> 00:15:55.049 Okay, lay it on me. To understand the mechanism, 00:15:55.269 --> 00:15:57.830 we have to look closely at a specific atmospheric 00:15:57.830 --> 00:16:00.149 feature sitting over the Hawaiian Islands called 00:16:00.149 --> 00:16:03.730 a Kona Lo. Kona Lo? Yeah. A Kona Lo is a type 00:16:03.730 --> 00:16:07.590 of seasonal subtropical cyclone that draws massive 00:16:07.590 --> 00:16:10.950 amounts of deep incredibly rich tropical moisture 00:16:10.950 --> 00:16:13.129 northward from the equator. Okay, so we have 00:16:13.129 --> 00:16:16.330 a massive swirling storm pulling ocean water 00:16:16.330 --> 00:16:18.710 into the sky. Where does the heat come from? 00:16:18.940 --> 00:16:21.259 The heat is generated through a process called 00:16:21.259 --> 00:16:23.600 the phase change of water. Phase change. Right. 00:16:24.000 --> 00:16:26.340 When solar radiation hits the ocean surface, 00:16:26.419 --> 00:16:28.980 it causes liquid water to evaporate into water 00:16:28.980 --> 00:16:32.159 vapor. Sure. But evaporation is a cooling process. 00:16:32.360 --> 00:16:35.139 It takes energy, specifically heat energy, to 00:16:35.139 --> 00:16:37.340 break the molecular bonds of liquid water and 00:16:37.340 --> 00:16:39.419 turn it into a gap. OK, that makes sense. But 00:16:39.419 --> 00:16:41.799 that heat energy does not disappear. It is stored 00:16:41.799 --> 00:16:43.860 inside the water vapor molecules as they rise 00:16:43.860 --> 00:16:46.620 into the atmosphere. We refer to this stored 00:16:46.620 --> 00:16:49.690 energy as latent heat. Wait, so the sky over 00:16:49.690 --> 00:16:51.669 Hawaii is filling up with trillions of gallons 00:16:51.669 --> 00:16:54.990 of invisible water vapor. And every single molecule 00:16:54.990 --> 00:16:57.809 is carrying a tiny battery of stored solar heat. 00:16:58.190 --> 00:17:00.909 Precisely. And when that massive concentration 00:17:00.909 --> 00:17:03.330 of water vapor is forced upward by the Kona Lo, 00:17:03.509 --> 00:17:06.049 the air cools and the vapor condenses back into 00:17:06.049 --> 00:17:09.109 liquid rain. When water vapor condenses, the 00:17:09.109 --> 00:17:12.190 physical process runs in reverse. All of that 00:17:12.190 --> 00:17:14.829 stored latent heat, the energy that was required 00:17:14.829 --> 00:17:18.410 to evaporate the water days or weeks prior, is 00:17:18.410 --> 00:17:20.710 violently released directly into the upper levels 00:17:20.710 --> 00:17:23.130 of the surrounding atmosphere. The sheer act 00:17:23.130 --> 00:17:25.589 of raining catastrophically over Oahu is acting 00:17:25.589 --> 00:17:28.690 like a massive invisible furnace pumping thermal 00:17:28.690 --> 00:17:31.029 energy into the upper troposphere. That is the 00:17:31.029 --> 00:17:33.390 exact mechanism. That is unbelievable. And that 00:17:33.390 --> 00:17:36.230 massive plume of newly released latent heat does 00:17:36.230 --> 00:17:38.329 not simply linger over the Hawaiian islands. 00:17:38.450 --> 00:17:41.390 It goes somewhere. Yes. immediately captured 00:17:41.390 --> 00:17:44.089 by the upper level wind currents. A powerful 00:17:44.089 --> 00:17:47.549 atmospheric river, a narrow, highly concentrated 00:17:47.549 --> 00:17:50.269 corridor of moisture and thermal energy begins 00:17:50.269 --> 00:17:52.630 to act like a planetary -scale conveyor belt. 00:17:52.829 --> 00:17:55.849 It shunts that latent heat rapidly northeast, 00:17:56.170 --> 00:17:58.990 driving it directly toward the Pacific Northwest 00:17:58.990 --> 00:18:01.450 coastline of the United States. So when that 00:18:01.450 --> 00:18:03.569 high -velocity conveyor belt of heat and moisture 00:18:03.569 --> 00:18:06.589 slams into the North American mainland, what 00:18:06.589 --> 00:18:09.299 is the physical reaction? The atmospheric river 00:18:09.299 --> 00:18:12.579 diverges upon impact with the continent. A significant 00:18:12.579 --> 00:18:15.140 portion of that kinetic and thermal energy is 00:18:15.140 --> 00:18:17.440 forced to run south. South, towards the desert. 00:18:17.700 --> 00:18:20.359 Exactly. It actually feeds directly into the 00:18:20.359 --> 00:18:22.339 upper level circulation of the high pressure 00:18:22.339 --> 00:18:24.420 dome sitting over the western United States. 00:18:25.180 --> 00:18:27.839 The catastrophic condensation and rainfall in 00:18:27.839 --> 00:18:31.220 Hawaii is actively, continuously pumping thermal 00:18:31.220 --> 00:18:33.839 fuel into the exact high pressure system that 00:18:33.839 --> 00:18:37.200 is baking Arizona and California. That is wild. 00:18:37.500 --> 00:18:40.420 The drowning of one state is quite literally 00:18:40.420 --> 00:18:42.559 providing the thermal energy to bake another 00:18:42.559 --> 00:18:45.140 state. You could not engineer a more tightly 00:18:45.140 --> 00:18:47.380 coupled, highly efficient system if you tried. 00:18:48.240 --> 00:18:50.059 Usually when we think of deep moisture and heat 00:18:50.059 --> 00:18:51.779 flowing into the United States, we picture the 00:18:51.779 --> 00:18:54.339 Gulf of Mexico pumping humidity northward up 00:18:54.339 --> 00:18:55.940 into the Great Plains. Right, that's the usual 00:18:55.940 --> 00:18:58.799 pattern we discuss. But in this specific scenario, 00:18:58.990 --> 00:19:01.589 The Pacific Ocean is running the entire continental 00:19:01.589 --> 00:19:04.150 show, dictating the severe weather parameters 00:19:04.150 --> 00:19:07.069 for millions of people across multiple time zones. 00:19:07.349 --> 00:19:09.890 And this interconnectedness is driven by planetary 00:19:09.890 --> 00:19:12.869 scale atmospheric waves, specifically Rossby 00:19:12.869 --> 00:19:15.390 waves. Rossby waves. Yeah. The atmosphere is 00:19:15.390 --> 00:19:18.450 a continuous fluid envelope that constantly seeks 00:19:18.450 --> 00:19:21.970 a state of equilibrium. It achieves this balance 00:19:21.970 --> 00:19:24.769 through massive undulating waves of pressure. 00:19:25.519 --> 00:19:28.339 There is a principle in fluid dynamics known 00:19:28.339 --> 00:19:31.579 as the conservation of absolute vorticity. Okay, 00:19:31.700 --> 00:19:33.299 let's translate the conservation of absolute 00:19:33.299 --> 00:19:35.740 vorticity for our listeners. Let's step away 00:19:35.740 --> 00:19:38.440 from basic analogies and look at the actual physics 00:19:38.440 --> 00:19:41.170 of the sky. Think of the classic physics example 00:19:41.170 --> 00:19:43.670 of an ice skater spinning on the ice. When the 00:19:43.670 --> 00:19:45.630 skater pulls their arms in tight to their body, 00:19:45.750 --> 00:19:48.230 they spin much faster to conserve their angular 00:19:48.230 --> 00:19:51.029 momentum. The atmosphere follows similar rules 00:19:51.029 --> 00:19:53.710 on a planetary scale. When the jet stream is 00:19:53.710 --> 00:19:56.190 forced to make a massive violent bulge northward 00:19:56.190 --> 00:19:58.250 over the western United States, creating our 00:19:58.250 --> 00:20:00.930 heat dome, the mathematics of vorticity dictate 00:20:00.930 --> 00:20:03.670 that the airflow cannot simply level out. It 00:20:03.670 --> 00:20:07.380 has to react. Yes. The atmosphere must compensate 00:20:07.380 --> 00:20:10.220 for that massive northward displacement by plunging 00:20:10.220 --> 00:20:15.000 deeply southward downstream. And that deep compensating 00:20:15.000 --> 00:20:18.740 plunge downstream is the deep trough of low -pressure 00:20:18.740 --> 00:20:21.910 funneling freezing. Arctic air directly into 00:20:21.910 --> 00:20:25.029 the northeast. Exactly. The intense ridge in 00:20:25.029 --> 00:20:27.910 the west mechanically requires the deep trough 00:20:27.910 --> 00:20:31.150 in the east to exist. Wow. And the energy fueling 00:20:31.150 --> 00:20:33.250 the ridge in the west is being supplied by the 00:20:33.250 --> 00:20:35.630 latent heat release from the Kona Lo in Hawaii. 00:20:36.230 --> 00:20:39.670 It is a single continuous planetary engine operating 00:20:39.670 --> 00:20:42.069 at maximum capacity. It's like the atmosphere 00:20:42.069 --> 00:20:44.490 is a giant water balloon. If you press down on 00:20:44.490 --> 00:20:46.470 the east coast, bringing all that cold air south, 00:20:46.849 --> 00:20:49.269 it forces a massive bulge up in the west, which 00:20:49.269 --> 00:20:51.589 is the heat. dome, and that creates ripples all 00:20:51.589 --> 00:20:54.089 the way out to Hawaii. It is a completely interconnected 00:20:54.089 --> 00:20:56.309 planetary engine. That's a great way to visualize 00:20:56.309 --> 00:20:58.549 it. So let's focus our attention back to the 00:20:58.549 --> 00:21:01.109 specific anatomy of the heat dome itself. The 00:21:01.109 --> 00:21:04.069 term summer -like ridge keeps appearing in the 00:21:04.069 --> 00:21:06.650 recent meteorological research to describe a 00:21:06.650 --> 00:21:08.589 weather event happening in the final days of 00:21:08.589 --> 00:21:11.869 March. What makes the internal architecture of 00:21:11.869 --> 00:21:14.890 a high pressure ridge so incredibly oppressive? 00:21:15.259 --> 00:21:17.859 Well, the primary mechanism operating inside 00:21:17.859 --> 00:21:20.920 a heat dome is a physical process called subsidence. 00:21:21.240 --> 00:21:23.720 Subsidence, okay. Ridges of high pressure are 00:21:23.720 --> 00:21:26.099 vast mountains of air in the upper atmosphere, 00:21:26.440 --> 00:21:28.859 and air fundamentally wants to flow from areas 00:21:28.859 --> 00:21:31.119 of high pressure to areas of lower pressure. 00:21:31.180 --> 00:21:34.079 Right, seeking that balance. Exactly. High up 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:36.960 in the troposphere, air rushes outward away from 00:21:36.960 --> 00:21:39.920 the center of the ridge. This evacuation of air 00:21:39.920 --> 00:21:42.960 aloft creates a void. And nature abhors a vacuum. 00:21:43.119 --> 00:21:46.230 Yes. So to fill that void, the massive column 00:21:46.230 --> 00:21:48.509 of air sitting above the center of the high pressure 00:21:48.509 --> 00:21:51.109 is forced to sink violently downward toward the 00:21:51.109 --> 00:21:53.230 surface of the Earth. And as that massive column 00:21:53.230 --> 00:21:55.630 of air sinks, its physical properties undergo 00:21:55.630 --> 00:21:58.589 a radical transformation. Right. As the air descends, 00:21:58.789 --> 00:22:01.009 it encounters the increasingly higher atmospheric 00:22:01.009 --> 00:22:03.069 pressure that exists near the surface of the 00:22:03.069 --> 00:22:05.049 Earth. Because the air is thicker down here. 00:22:05.349 --> 00:22:09.029 Yes. And this higher pressure squeezes the descending 00:22:09.029 --> 00:22:12.319 air mass. In thermodynamics, there is a principle 00:22:12.319 --> 00:22:14.920 called adiabatic heating. Adiabatic heating. 00:22:15.119 --> 00:22:18.220 Yeah. When you forcefully compress a gas, the 00:22:18.220 --> 00:22:20.819 kinetic energy of its molecules increases and 00:22:20.819 --> 00:22:23.480 the gas warms up rapidly. So the high pressure 00:22:23.480 --> 00:22:26.119 system acts as a planetary scale atmospheric 00:22:26.119 --> 00:22:29.079 trash compactor. Huh. Yes. It is pressing down 00:22:29.079 --> 00:22:31.140 with immense force on the American Southwest, 00:22:31.700 --> 00:22:33.799 heating the ambient air to record shattering 00:22:33.799 --> 00:22:36.839 levels entirely through the physical force of 00:22:36.839 --> 00:22:39.079 compression. That is spot on. And the consequence 00:22:39.079 --> 00:22:41.579 of that atmospheric trash compactor is a complete 00:22:41.579 --> 00:22:44.240 and total suppression of vertical motion. What 00:22:44.240 --> 00:22:45.960 does that mean for the weather? Well, the sinking 00:22:45.960 --> 00:22:48.619 compressing air creates a highly stable environment. 00:22:48.920 --> 00:22:51.700 Without upward vertical motion, warm air at the 00:22:51.700 --> 00:22:54.519 surface cannot rise. OK. If air cannot rise, 00:22:54.660 --> 00:22:57.380 it cannot cool and its water vapor cannot dense 00:22:57.380 --> 00:23:00.400 into droplets. Which means absolutely zero clouds 00:23:00.400 --> 00:23:03.160 can form, the sky is swept completely clean. 00:23:03.480 --> 00:23:06.660 Exactly. The absence of cloud cover allows the 00:23:06.660 --> 00:23:08.900 incoming solar radiation to strike the surface 00:23:08.900 --> 00:23:12.000 of the earth entirely unimpeded from the moment 00:23:12.000 --> 00:23:14.700 the Sun rises until the moment it sets. Just 00:23:14.700 --> 00:23:18.259 baking everything. Yes. The soil, the asphalt 00:23:18.259 --> 00:23:21.059 and the concrete absorb that intense solar energy 00:23:21.059 --> 00:23:24.039 and heat up rapidly. The ground then radiates 00:23:24.039 --> 00:23:26.460 that thermal energy back into the air directly 00:23:26.460 --> 00:23:29.420 above it. And it has nowhere to go. Right. The 00:23:29.420 --> 00:23:31.660 massive sinking weight of the high -pressure 00:23:31.660 --> 00:23:35.079 dome acts as an impenetrable lid, trapping all 00:23:35.079 --> 00:23:37.000 of that heat at the surface and preventing it 00:23:37.000 --> 00:23:40.000 from escaping into the upper atmosphere. The 00:23:40.000 --> 00:23:43.000 cycle compounds on itself day after day. Here's 00:23:43.000 --> 00:23:45.910 where it gets really interesting. Yeah. The biological 00:23:45.910 --> 00:23:48.490 fallout from this compounding heat cycle is playing 00:23:48.490 --> 00:23:50.690 out across the country at a terrifying velocity. 00:23:50.869 --> 00:23:53.069 Yeah. We have to introduce a vital scientific 00:23:53.069 --> 00:23:55.569 concept here called phenology. Right, phenology. 00:23:55.809 --> 00:23:58.349 It's the rigorous study of cyclic and seasonal 00:23:58.349 --> 00:24:01.289 natural phenomena. Exactly. It focuses specifically 00:24:01.289 --> 00:24:03.630 on how climate and weather patterns dictate the 00:24:03.630 --> 00:24:06.410 life cycles of plant and animal life. Well, according 00:24:06.410 --> 00:24:09.170 to the latest climatological data and scenological 00:24:09.170 --> 00:24:12.339 tracking, spring leaf out which is the specific 00:24:12.339 --> 00:24:15.380 biological moment when trees and perennial plants 00:24:15.380 --> 00:24:18.660 push out their very first green leaves, is currently 00:24:18.660 --> 00:24:21.579 running three to five entire weeks early. Wow. 00:24:21.920 --> 00:24:25.680 three to five weeks. Yes, in places like Colorado, 00:24:25.799 --> 00:24:28.440 Kansas, and across the vast expanse of the northern 00:24:28.440 --> 00:24:31.680 Great Plains. That is massive. The flora of the 00:24:31.680 --> 00:24:35.019 continent is mechanically responding to the environmental 00:24:35.019 --> 00:24:37.640 cues it is receiving. Right. The unprecedented 00:24:37.640 --> 00:24:40.539 heat dome is providing the exact thermal signals 00:24:40.539 --> 00:24:42.940 that trick the vegetation into believing that 00:24:42.940 --> 00:24:45.779 deep, stabilized spring has permanently arrived. 00:24:45.880 --> 00:24:48.619 But the calendar dictates reality. It is still 00:24:48.619 --> 00:24:51.319 March. Right. The vernal equinox just occurred. 00:24:51.420 --> 00:24:54.900 This massive thermal deception creates the extreme 00:24:54.900 --> 00:24:57.680 systemic danger of what agricultural scientists 00:24:57.680 --> 00:25:00.700 call a false spring. Yes, false springs are incredibly 00:25:00.700 --> 00:25:02.859 destructive. Let's use an analogy of a highly 00:25:02.859 --> 00:25:05.299 calibrated factory assembly line. Okay, I like 00:25:05.299 --> 00:25:07.720 that. A tree sitting dormant in the winter has 00:25:07.720 --> 00:25:10.640 a strict chemical budget of energy stored in 00:25:10.640 --> 00:25:13.839 its root system. It takes a massive expenditure 00:25:13.839 --> 00:25:16.519 of that stored energy to power up the assembly 00:25:16.519 --> 00:25:19.619 line. to push sap through the trunk, to swell 00:25:19.619 --> 00:25:22.460 the buds, and to unfurl the delicate new leaves. 00:25:23.160 --> 00:25:25.920 The tree relies on the gradual, predictable warming 00:25:25.920 --> 00:25:28.579 of normal spring to ensure that once it spends 00:25:28.579 --> 00:25:31.359 its energy budget, the solar panels, the new 00:25:31.359 --> 00:25:34.019 leaves, will survive to begin generating new 00:25:34.019 --> 00:25:36.680 energy. Makes perfect sense. But when the heat 00:25:36.680 --> 00:25:39.380 dome forces temperatures into the 80s and 90s 00:25:39.380 --> 00:25:41.759 in March, the tree immediately powers up the 00:25:41.759 --> 00:25:44.140 assembly line and spends its entire chemical 00:25:44.140 --> 00:25:47.200 budget. Exactly. The buds open. The delicate 00:25:47.200 --> 00:25:49.480 water -filled tissues of the new leaves are completely 00:25:49.480 --> 00:25:52.240 exposed to the elements. And the tree is now 00:25:52.240 --> 00:25:55.160 biologically bankrupt and incredibly vulnerable. 00:25:55.319 --> 00:25:58.119 Yes. If the atmospheric seesaw shifts in two 00:25:58.119 --> 00:26:01.039 or three weeks, if a standard, entirely expected, 00:26:01.240 --> 00:26:03.500 seasonable April cold front sweeps down from 00:26:03.500 --> 00:26:05.809 Canada and plunges temperatures below freezing. 00:26:06.369 --> 00:26:08.470 The water inside those newly exposed leaves will 00:26:08.470 --> 00:26:10.589 freeze, expand and rupture the cellular walls. 00:26:10.990 --> 00:26:13.170 The biological destruction would be absolute. 00:26:13.809 --> 00:26:17.529 The initial false spring tricks the plants into 00:26:17.529 --> 00:26:20.190 gambling their entire energy reserve on the heat 00:26:20.190 --> 00:26:23.470 dome and a subsequent normal freeze will annihilate 00:26:23.470 --> 00:26:26.069 them. It destroys the fruit crop for the entire 00:26:26.069 --> 00:26:28.910 year. The agricultural supply chain for certain 00:26:28.910 --> 00:26:31.269 commodities can be decimated in a single night 00:26:31.269 --> 00:26:34.009 of frost following a false spring. And the danger 00:26:34.009 --> 00:26:37.150 of this heat dome is not restricted to agricultural 00:26:37.150 --> 00:26:41.950 collapse. It is profoundly lethally human. Yes. 00:26:42.250 --> 00:26:44.829 Extreme heat is consistently the leading cause 00:26:44.829 --> 00:26:46.950 of weather -related fatalities in the United 00:26:46.950 --> 00:26:49.690 States. Heat kills more individuals annually 00:26:49.690 --> 00:26:52.250 than hurricanes, tornadoes, and catastrophic 00:26:52.250 --> 00:26:54.789 floods combined. It's the silent killer. Absolutely. 00:26:55.109 --> 00:26:57.630 Hitting 112 degrees in the month of March makes 00:26:57.630 --> 00:26:59.769 the environment exponentially more lethal than 00:26:59.769 --> 00:27:01.430 hitting the exact same temperature in the middle 00:27:01.430 --> 00:27:04.029 of August. And the danger lies in the physiological 00:27:04.029 --> 00:27:06.849 mechanics of human heat adaptation. The human 00:27:06.849 --> 00:27:10.529 cardiovascular system requires significant, sustained 00:27:10.529 --> 00:27:13.910 time to acclimatize to extreme thermal stress. 00:27:14.289 --> 00:27:16.890 Walk us through the exact biological mechanism 00:27:16.890 --> 00:27:20.109 of acclimatization. What happens to the human 00:27:20.109 --> 00:27:22.970 body over a normal, gradual spring transition 00:27:22.970 --> 00:27:25.720 that is failing to happen right now? Sure. During 00:27:25.720 --> 00:27:28.119 a normal seasonal transition from spring to summer 00:27:28.119 --> 00:27:31.480 as temperatures slowly rise, the human body undergoes 00:27:31.480 --> 00:27:35.779 a complex physiological shift. The most critical 00:27:35.779 --> 00:27:38.960 adaptation involves your blood. Over a period 00:27:38.960 --> 00:27:42.000 of several weeks of gradual heat exposure, your 00:27:42.000 --> 00:27:45.220 body actively increases its total blood plasma 00:27:45.220 --> 00:27:48.240 volume. It manufactures more fluid for the cardiovascular 00:27:48.240 --> 00:27:50.940 system. Exactly. It expands the fluid volume 00:27:50.940 --> 00:27:53.440 without adding more red blood cells. So the blood 00:27:53.440 --> 00:27:56.539 gets thinner. Right. This thinner, higher -volume 00:27:56.539 --> 00:27:59.359 blood is easier for the heart to pump. When you 00:27:59.359 --> 00:28:02.140 are exposed to high heat, your heart has to pump 00:28:02.140 --> 00:28:04.319 massive amounts of blood away from your internal 00:28:04.319 --> 00:28:06.440 organs and push it out to the tiny capillaries 00:28:06.440 --> 00:28:08.900 in your skin. Okay, to radiate the heat. Yes. 00:28:09.220 --> 00:28:11.059 The heat from your core is transferred to your 00:28:11.059 --> 00:28:13.000 skin where the evaporation of sweat can carry 00:28:13.000 --> 00:28:15.779 it away into the air. But when you jump, directly 00:28:15.779 --> 00:28:19.279 from cold winter weather into peak, record -shattering 00:28:19.279 --> 00:28:22.299 summer heat in a matter of hours. That adaptation 00:28:22.299 --> 00:28:25.680 has not occurred. Not at all. You have zero acclimatization. 00:28:26.119 --> 00:28:28.339 Your body is operating with a lower volume of 00:28:28.339 --> 00:28:31.140 thicker, winter -adapted blood. Wow. When the 00:28:31.140 --> 00:28:33.579 March heat wave hits, your heart begins beating 00:28:33.579 --> 00:28:36.259 violently, attempting to force this thicker blood 00:28:36.259 --> 00:28:39.519 out to the skin to cool your core. The cardiovascular 00:28:39.519 --> 00:28:42.700 strain is massive and immediate. And your sweating 00:28:42.700 --> 00:28:45.519 mechanism is inefficient. Right. Your internal 00:28:45.519 --> 00:28:48.619 cooling system is completely overwhelmed. This 00:28:48.619 --> 00:28:51.660 leads directly to heat exhaustion, rapid progression 00:28:51.660 --> 00:28:55.680 to heat stroke, and in severe cases, sudden cardiac 00:28:55.680 --> 00:28:58.220 failure. And the biological vulnerability is 00:28:58.220 --> 00:29:00.220 compounded by the vulnerability of our built 00:29:00.220 --> 00:29:02.579 environment. Yes, the infrastructure. In the 00:29:02.579 --> 00:29:04.779 middle of March, the vast majority of residential 00:29:04.779 --> 00:29:07.599 homes, apartment complexes, and municipal buildings 00:29:07.599 --> 00:29:09.779 have not yet prepared their air conditioning 00:29:09.779 --> 00:29:12.369 units for the summer load. The necessary seasonal 00:29:12.369 --> 00:29:14.750 maintenance just has not been completed. Right. 00:29:15.029 --> 00:29:17.990 The regional power grid operators have not scaled 00:29:17.990 --> 00:29:20.910 up their generation capacity to handle peak summer 00:29:20.910 --> 00:29:24.410 cooling demand. We are throwing a mid -July atmospheric 00:29:24.410 --> 00:29:27.650 crisis at a society and an infrastructure grid 00:29:27.650 --> 00:29:30.369 that is still functionally legally and economically 00:29:30.369 --> 00:29:33.529 operating in winter mode. It's a systemic shock. 00:29:33.769 --> 00:29:36.650 So what does this all mean? This systemic shock 00:29:36.650 --> 00:29:38.829 forces us to address the fundamental question. 00:29:39.529 --> 00:29:42.940 Why is this precise configuration of extreme 00:29:42.940 --> 00:29:45.140 events happening now? It's the million dollar 00:29:45.140 --> 00:29:47.779 question. Right. To answer that, we are going 00:29:47.779 --> 00:29:50.359 to rely strictly on recent meteorological research. 00:29:50.599 --> 00:29:53.579 We are looking at the findings of rapid attribution 00:29:53.579 --> 00:29:56.380 studies regarding this specific record -breaking 00:29:56.380 --> 00:29:58.500 southwest heat wave. And looking at the recent 00:29:58.500 --> 00:30:00.579 attribution studies, our goal here is simply 00:30:00.579 --> 00:30:02.700 to follow the math. Just reporting the findings 00:30:02.700 --> 00:30:04.799 of recent research. Exactly. When researchers 00:30:04.799 --> 00:30:07.640 run these models, they are looking at pure thermodynamics 00:30:07.640 --> 00:30:10.339 and historical statistics. And attribution studies 00:30:10.339 --> 00:30:12.779 are highly complex mathematical frameworks, right? 00:30:12.779 --> 00:30:14.680 They are. They're designed to determine exactly 00:30:14.680 --> 00:30:17.400 how much of a specific extreme weather event 00:30:17.400 --> 00:30:20.529 was influenced by underlying documented shifts 00:30:20.529 --> 00:30:24.089 on global climatological data. So how do researchers 00:30:24.089 --> 00:30:26.730 actually perform that calculation? How do you 00:30:26.730 --> 00:30:29.750 isolate the impact of a shifting climate baseline 00:30:29.750 --> 00:30:32.750 from the standard chaotic noise of daily weather? 00:30:32.910 --> 00:30:36.210 The methodology relies on immense computational 00:30:36.210 --> 00:30:39.450 power. Researchers utilize decades of high resolution 00:30:39.450 --> 00:30:42.990 historical observation data combined with advanced 00:30:42.990 --> 00:30:46.289 supercomputer driven climate models. They first 00:30:46.289 --> 00:30:48.390 simulate the extreme weather event, in this case 00:30:48.390 --> 00:30:51.950 the 112 degree heat dome within our current observed 00:30:51.950 --> 00:30:54.269 climate reality. The world as it is today. Right. 00:30:54.589 --> 00:30:57.549 Then they run thousands of simulations of a purely 00:30:57.549 --> 00:31:00.089 hypothetical climate model. What does that hypothetical 00:31:00.089 --> 00:31:02.130 model look like? This hypothetical model represents 00:31:02.130 --> 00:31:04.779 an earth that has not experienced the well -documented 00:31:04.779 --> 00:31:07.640 baseline warming of the industrial era. Ah, I 00:31:07.640 --> 00:31:09.700 see. So they compare the frequency and intensity 00:31:09.700 --> 00:31:12.140 of the heat dome in the real world against the 00:31:12.140 --> 00:31:14.259 frequency and intensity of the heat dome in the 00:31:14.259 --> 00:31:17.140 mathematically simulated unwarm world. Exactly. 00:31:17.339 --> 00:31:19.859 When they compare the two massive data sets, 00:31:20.279 --> 00:31:22.799 the mathematical divergence is stark. What did 00:31:22.799 --> 00:31:25.339 they find? The research indicates that a heat 00:31:25.339 --> 00:31:28.319 wave of this specific record -shattering magnitude 00:31:28.319 --> 00:31:30.519 occurring specifically in the month of March 00:31:30.519 --> 00:31:33.400 is virtually impossible to produce in the hypothetical 00:31:33.400 --> 00:31:35.799 models without the underlying thermal shifts 00:31:35.799 --> 00:31:38.400 present in our current global climate data. Virtually 00:31:38.400 --> 00:31:41.559 impossible. Yes. The researchers classify an 00:31:41.559 --> 00:31:44.640 event of this intensity within this specific 00:31:44.640 --> 00:31:48.319 geographical footprint as a 1 in 500 year event. 00:31:48.519 --> 00:31:50.759 OK, let's look at the hard statistical numbers 00:31:50.759 --> 00:31:53.619 they extracted from the models. The research 00:31:53.619 --> 00:31:56.240 indicates that a globally warmer baseline of 00:31:56.240 --> 00:32:00.099 just 1 .3 degrees Celsius makes this specific 00:32:00.099 --> 00:32:03.079 heat event 800 times more likely to occur than 00:32:03.079 --> 00:32:04.819 it would have been in the pre -industrial baseline. 00:32:05.039 --> 00:32:08.619 800 times. The shifting baseline alters the fundamental 00:32:08.619 --> 00:32:11.599 probabl - matrix of the atmosphere. But it does 00:32:11.599 --> 00:32:13.920 not simply increase the frequency of the event. 00:32:14.279 --> 00:32:16.859 It amplifies the sheer intensity of the heat. 00:32:17.400 --> 00:32:19.839 The attribution data demonstrates that the 1 00:32:19.839 --> 00:32:23.059 .3 degree baseline shift has made this specific 00:32:23.059 --> 00:32:26.839 atmospheric event 2 .6 degrees Celsius hotter 00:32:26.839 --> 00:32:29.519 than it would have been otherwise. Wow. And that 00:32:29.519 --> 00:32:32.039 2 .6 degrees Celsius addition is not a trivial 00:32:32.039 --> 00:32:34.400 margin. It is the absolute difference between 00:32:34.400 --> 00:32:38.779 a very uncomfortable sweaty afternoon and a lethal 00:32:38.920 --> 00:32:41.640 infrastructure -melting, record -shattering emergency. 00:32:41.759 --> 00:32:44.539 It really is. But the data point that is perhaps 00:32:44.539 --> 00:32:47.200 the most shocking emerges when the researchers 00:32:47.200 --> 00:32:49.839 narrow their focus away from the century -long 00:32:49.839 --> 00:32:52.359 timeline and look exclusively at the last decade. 00:32:52.539 --> 00:32:54.339 Right, because the pace of atmospheric change 00:32:54.339 --> 00:32:57.319 is not linear, it is actively accelerating. Yes. 00:32:57.720 --> 00:33:00.039 The data reveals that in just the last 10 years 00:33:00.039 --> 00:33:03.779 alone, A baseline shift of 0 .4 degrees Celsius 00:33:03.779 --> 00:33:06.740 has made events exactly like this southwest heat 00:33:06.740 --> 00:33:09.259 dome four times more likely to happen. In just 00:33:09.259 --> 00:33:11.539 10 years. Furthermore, that shift over the last 00:33:11.539 --> 00:33:14.599 decade has added 0 .8 degrees Celsius of raw 00:33:14.599 --> 00:33:16.980 heat to the peak temperatures we were experiencing 00:33:16.980 --> 00:33:19.720 today. That's incredible. The parameters of our 00:33:19.720 --> 00:33:22.200 atmosphere are shifting drastically within the 00:33:22.200 --> 00:33:24.900 span of a single human decade. This raises an 00:33:24.900 --> 00:33:26.920 important question, though, regarding the seasonal 00:33:26.920 --> 00:33:30.430 distribution of this intensifying heat. You would 00:33:30.430 --> 00:33:33.210 logically expect the most extreme heat shifts 00:33:33.210 --> 00:33:35.410 to manifest during the peak summer months of 00:33:35.410 --> 00:33:38.410 July or August when solar radiation is at its 00:33:38.410 --> 00:33:41.369 absolute maximum. You would think so, yeah. But 00:33:41.369 --> 00:33:43.970 the researchers point out a fascinating, highly 00:33:43.970 --> 00:33:47.009 disruptive anomaly in their climatological tracking. 00:33:47.450 --> 00:33:50.130 Right. The most substantial long -term warming 00:33:50.130 --> 00:33:53.029 signal for heat extremes in this specific region 00:33:53.029 --> 00:33:55.890 of Western North America is not occurring during 00:33:55.890 --> 00:33:58.250 the summer. Where is it occurring? The most aggressive 00:33:58.250 --> 00:34:00.710 warming trends are manifesting specifically and 00:34:00.710 --> 00:34:03.450 intensely in the month of March. Wow. March is 00:34:03.450 --> 00:34:06.390 warming at a faster rate, specifically at the 00:34:06.390 --> 00:34:08.650 extreme high end of the temperature spectrum, 00:34:09.110 --> 00:34:11.440 than the summer months. Yes. The data shows that 00:34:11.440 --> 00:34:13.639 typical March peak temperatures have risen by 00:34:13.639 --> 00:34:15.960 as much as six degrees Celsius in certain parts 00:34:15.960 --> 00:34:18.980 of this region when compared directly to historical 00:34:18.980 --> 00:34:23.300 20th century baselines. Six degrees. We are witnessing 00:34:23.300 --> 00:34:26.659 a fundamental mechanical restructuring of the 00:34:26.659 --> 00:34:29.119 seasonal transition period. The atmosphere is 00:34:29.119 --> 00:34:31.559 no longer producing a gradual, predictable spring. 00:34:31.789 --> 00:34:35.429 No, winter is abruptly, violently terminating 00:34:35.429 --> 00:34:38.190 into peak summer conditions. And this restructuring 00:34:38.190 --> 00:34:40.650 brings us right back to the dual crises we are 00:34:40.650 --> 00:34:43.710 witnessing today. We are watching a slow motion 00:34:43.710 --> 00:34:46.250 collision. A collision of what? We have an entire 00:34:46.250 --> 00:34:49.510 continent of aging infrastructure designed, engineered, 00:34:49.670 --> 00:34:53.170 and built for a stable climate baseline that 00:34:53.170 --> 00:34:56.730 existed a full century ago, now actively colliding 00:34:56.730 --> 00:34:59.789 with rapidly shifting, mathematically intensified 00:34:59.789 --> 00:35:02.199 weather extremes. Right. Like we talked about, 00:35:02.280 --> 00:35:04.860 the Wahioa Dam in Hawaii was intricately engineered 00:35:04.860 --> 00:35:07.500 for the predictable historical rainfall patterns 00:35:07.500 --> 00:35:10.239 of the early 1900s. Exactly. The earthen walls 00:35:10.239 --> 00:35:12.599 and the emergency spillway were never modeled 00:35:12.599 --> 00:35:15.219 to withstand the latent heat -driven atmospheric 00:35:15.219 --> 00:35:17.739 rivers of today. And the municipal power grids 00:35:17.739 --> 00:35:20.559 in Arizona are strictly calibrated and budgeted 00:35:20.559 --> 00:35:22.940 for extreme heat waves that arrive in late June, 00:35:23.260 --> 00:35:25.380 not in the final days of astronomical winter. 00:35:25.699 --> 00:35:28.320 This collision demands that we ask incredibly 00:35:28.320 --> 00:35:31.500 hard, expensive questions about the future of 00:35:31.500 --> 00:35:34.039 urban planning and civil engineering. We really 00:35:34.039 --> 00:35:37.280 have to. How do city engineers, state hydrologists, 00:35:37.400 --> 00:35:40.480 and emergency managers adapt and protect populations 00:35:40.480 --> 00:35:42.840 when the historical data they use to build their 00:35:42.840 --> 00:35:46.280 models no longer accurately predicts the future 00:35:46.280 --> 00:35:48.559 behavior of the weather? That's the real challenge. 00:35:48.719 --> 00:35:51.300 If the data shows that the 100 -year flood map 00:35:51.300 --> 00:35:54.059 is now functionally the 10 -year flood map and 00:35:54.059 --> 00:35:56.340 the July heat wave is now arriving as the March 00:35:56.340 --> 00:35:59.199 heat wave, The fundamental blueprints for our 00:35:59.199 --> 00:36:02.079 cities, our agriculture, and our economies have 00:36:02.079 --> 00:36:04.940 to be completely redrawn. It requires a massive 00:36:04.940 --> 00:36:07.960 societal paradigm shift in how we assess environmental 00:36:07.960 --> 00:36:10.500 risk, how we allocate municipal funding, and 00:36:10.500 --> 00:36:12.860 how we build physical resilience into our critical 00:36:12.860 --> 00:36:15.280 infrastructure. We can no longer build for the 00:36:15.280 --> 00:36:17.599 climate of the past. We can't. And as we wrap 00:36:17.599 --> 00:36:20.039 up this exploration of the data today, I want 00:36:20.039 --> 00:36:22.320 to leave you with a profound new concept to ponder. 00:36:22.519 --> 00:36:25.070 OK. Think about the basic fundamental structure 00:36:25.070 --> 00:36:27.190 of the calendar year as we have all been taught 00:36:27.190 --> 00:36:31.489 it since childhood. Spring, summer, autumn, winter. 00:36:31.849 --> 00:36:34.050 Right, the four seasons. Those four seasons form 00:36:34.050 --> 00:36:36.989 the rhythm of human history. They dictate our 00:36:36.989 --> 00:36:39.650 holidays, our school years, our clothing, and 00:36:39.650 --> 00:36:42.610 our culture. Yeah, they anchor us. But if astronomical 00:36:42.610 --> 00:36:45.230 winter is now physically capable of producing 00:36:45.230 --> 00:36:49.710 112 degree desert days in Arizona, and catastrophic 00:36:49.710 --> 00:36:52.369 20 -year flood events in Hawaii simultaneously, 00:36:53.570 --> 00:36:56.030 how will our traditional definitions of the four 00:36:56.030 --> 00:36:58.710 seasons need to evolve? That's a great question. 00:36:58.849 --> 00:37:02.030 Will we reach a point where categorizing the 00:37:02.030 --> 00:37:05.329 year into four neat, evenly spaced, predictable 00:37:05.329 --> 00:37:09.289 segments is no longer meteorologically or agriculturally 00:37:09.289 --> 00:37:12.320 accurate? We might. Will we need to entirely 00:37:12.320 --> 00:37:15.699 rethink our agricultural calendars? Will a commercial 00:37:15.699 --> 00:37:18.460 farmer in Kansas or a vineyard owner in California 00:37:18.460 --> 00:37:20.659 have to plant their crops based on a completely 00:37:20.659 --> 00:37:24.219 new erratic seasonal expectation, forcing them 00:37:24.219 --> 00:37:26.579 to completely abandon the historical almanacs 00:37:26.579 --> 00:37:28.519 of their grandparents? Probably will have to. 00:37:28.699 --> 00:37:30.920 It is a profound structural shift in how our 00:37:30.920 --> 00:37:33.300 planet operates. and it is happening right outside 00:37:33.300 --> 00:37:35.659 our windows in real time. It really is. We want 00:37:35.659 --> 00:37:37.380 to thank you for joining us on this exploration 00:37:37.380 --> 00:37:39.820 today. Make sure to like, follow, comment, and 00:37:39.820 --> 00:37:42.440 rate today's exploration. We rely heavily on 00:37:42.440 --> 00:37:45.039 your feedback to keep bringing you these intense 00:37:45.039 --> 00:37:47.179 examinations of the data. And if you want to 00:37:47.179 --> 00:37:48.760 stay up to date with the complexities of the 00:37:48.760 --> 00:37:50.940 weather as it happens, you need to follow the 00:37:50.940 --> 00:37:53.480 creator of this show. Absolutely. Make sure you 00:37:53.480 --> 00:37:55.800 follow meteorologist Rob Jones across all of 00:37:55.800 --> 00:37:58.199 his social media platforms. On Instagram, you 00:37:58.199 --> 00:38:01.139 can find him by searching meteorologist. Over 00:38:01.139 --> 00:38:05.340 on TikTok, search for TV meteorologist. And on 00:38:05.340 --> 00:38:07.500 YouTube, hit subscribe on Rob Jones Hurricane. 00:38:07.820 --> 00:38:09.880 Right. That is also where you can find the entire 00:38:09.880 --> 00:38:12.860 Meteorology Matters audio playlist. So you never 00:38:12.860 --> 00:38:15.000 miss a vital discussion. The atmosphere never 00:38:15.000 --> 00:38:18.190 stops moving. It never stops changing, and neither 00:38:18.190 --> 00:38:22.150 do we. You've been listening to Meteorology Matters, 00:38:22.289 --> 00:38:24.869 created by meteorologist Rob Jones. Thanks for 00:38:24.869 --> 00:38:28.110 listening, and remember, meteorology always matters.