It's the first week of March, 2026. And looking
at the raw data right in front of us, the weather
is just, it's completely undeniably broken. It
really is. We are currently staring at a map
that makes absolutely no logical sense whatsoever.
On one side of the country, people are sweltering
through 106 degree heat. in what is technically
still the dead of winter. It's dangerous, blistering
mid -summer heat. And yet, on the exact opposite
side of the country, entire communities are currently
paralyzed, buried under historic blizzards with
emergency crews working around the clock. It
is an absolute atmospheric traffic jam out there.
Today, our mission is to untangle this bizarre
global weather map and figure out exactly what
the science says is driving these massive extremes
as we transition into spring. to Meteorology
Matters, the podcast that dives deep into the
science, chaos, and stories behind the weather
that shapes our world. This show was created
by meteorologist Rob Jones. Now let's get into
today's episode of Meteorology Matters. It is
truly a wild time to be looking at the atmosphere,
and I am really looking forward to breaking all
of this down for you today. Before we jump into
the sheer chaos of this data, we want to take
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What's fascinating here is how the atmosphere
right now is essentially acting like a massive
battleground. When you look at the research we've
compiled, we have entirely conflicting seasons
fighting for dominance across the continent.
And the stakes for the people living under these
systems are incredibly high. That is the perfect
way to frame it, a battleground. To give you
a roadmap of where we are heading today, we are
going to start by covering those shattered temperature
records out west, really looking at the mechanics
of that heat. Physics of it, yeah. Exactly. Then
we are going to look way up high into the atmosphere
to understand the bizarre, lazy behavior of the
jet stream right now. From there, we will break
down a severe storm threat that is actively drawing
dangerous moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Which
is a huge concern. A massive concern. And finally,
we will zoom out to the global level, look at
the fading La Nina, and discuss a rather startling
five -year global climate forecast that has just
been released by the research. It is a massive
amount of ground to cover. But understanding
the why behind the weather outside your window,
rather than just the what, has really never been
more critical for your daily life. Okay, let's
unpack this absolute divide across the nation.
The heat wave in the West and the South is one
thing to experience, but when you actually look
at the historical data, it is not just unusual,
it is record -shattering. It's unprecedented.
The numbers we are seeing in the research are
genuinely hard to process for late February and
early March. For example, Falcon Dam, Texas.
The data shows they hit 106 degrees Fahrenheit
on February 26th. That is officially the hottest
winter day ever recorded in the United States.
I think we need to pause and just let that sink
in for a moment. 106 degrees in winter in February.
We are not talking about a pleasantly warm afternoon
where you take off your jacket and enjoy the
sun. We are talking about peak summer, dangerous
heat indices occurring while the calendar still
definitively says it is winter. This is heat
that stresses the human body, it stresses local
power grids, and completely tricks the local
flora and fauna into thinking we are deep into
July. And reading through the notes, it becomes
clear very quickly that this was not an isolated
freak event for one single town. No, not at all.
It is regional. Laredo, Texas hit 103 degrees,
marking its hottest February day ever. Then you
move over to California. Riverside reached 93
degrees, which completely obliterated a previous
record that had stood since 1972. El Centro hit
96 degrees. So what is actually happening in
the atmosphere to create a furnace like this
in the winter? When you look at the broader scope
of the atmospheric data, this heat is a result
of a persistent ridge of high pressure. that
has essentially parked itself over the western
half of the country. To understand why high pressure
equals extreme heat, you have to picture the
air itself. Okay. A high pressure system features
sinking air. The atmosphere is literally pushing
down toward the surface. As that air sinks lower
and lower, the atmospheric pressure around it
increases, which compresses the air. And when
you compress a gas, it heats up? Precisely. It
is basic thermodynamics. As that massive column
of air compresses, it dramatically warms up before
it ever even reaches the ground. On top of that,
sinking air suppresses cloud formation. It clears
out the sky entirely. So there's no shade. Exactly.
Zero shade. So you have mechanically warmed air
combined with a complete lack of cloud cover,
allowing the sun to just mercilessly bake the
surface day after day. For much of the western
half of the country, this persistent setup has
resulted in the warmest winter on record. That
unrelenting sunshine sounds great if you're on
a beach vacation, but the research points out
a massive terrifying flip side to this persistent
heat. While the 106 degree records are grabbing
all the headlines, the notes emphasize a chronic
lack of snow. The snow drought, yes. From a meteorological
and ecological standpoint, the lack of snow across
the western United States is arguably the more
dangerous long term story hidden inside this
heat wave. We are currently monitoring the worst
snow drought in decades gripping the West. I
was reading through the impact reports on this
and it really struck me how this affects everyone,
not just the ski resorts. The snowpack in the
Western Mountains acts as a sort of frozen reservoir,
right? That is a brilliant way to visualize it.
It is nature's water tower. In a normal, healthy
winter, snow accumulates in the high elevations
layer by layer. It stays frozen up there. Then
as we move through spring and into the hot summer
months, that massive snowpack slowly and steadily
melts. It feeds the whole system. It does. That
slow melt is the lifeblood of the West. It provides
a consistent metered water supply that fills
the rivers, supplies drinking water for millions
of people, sustains massive agricultural operations,
and spins the turbines for hydroelectric power.
So when we see a massive snow drought like we
are seeing right now, that natural reservoir
is virtually empty before the high -demand summer
months even begin. It creates a severe deficit.
The cascading impacts are profound. The data
shows how this immediately forces local governments
to rethink water allocations, but the threat
extends far beyond just drinking water. Think
about the landscape. The forests. Right. Without
that slow, steady moisture seeping into the soil
throughout May and June, the deep forests and
the low brush become completely parched incredibly
early in the season. It sounds like it is creating
a giant tinderbox. It absolutely is a tinderbox.
The research points directly to a significantly
increased vulnerability to severe, fast -moving
wildfires. Because the vegetation dries out months
earlier than usual, the wildfire season is artificially
extended and intensified. and we cannot ignore
the immediate economic devastation to winter
tourism and recreation. The ski towns. Exactly.
Entire mountain communities rely on that three
or four month winter economy. The skiers, the
snowboarders, the lodges to survive for the entire
year. When the snow doesn't show up, those local
economies collapse. It is a devastating domino
effect. Meanwhile, as the West bakes and waits
for a snowpack that simply isn't coming, the
East Coast is experiencing severe atmospheric
whiplash. According to the data we are reviewing,
the Northeast is currently digging out from a
historic, paralyzing blizzard straight along
the highly populated I -95 corridor. The contrast
is staggering when you view the country from
a satellite perspective. You literally have people
running emergency air conditioners to survive
the heat in Texas while thousands of miles away
people are completely snowed in relying on snowplows
and emergency services just to leave their neighborhoods
in the Northeast. And the really wild part in
the research is that they are not out of the
woods yet. The data indicates another round and
possibly two more rounds of accumulating snow
eyeing those exact same winter weary regions
this coming week. keep dumping heavy snow on
the exact same spot in March, while the rest
of the country feels like July. The notes mention
something called a Greenland block. I've never
heard of that. It is a fantastic meteorological
concept. It comes down to a phenomenon known
as atmospheric blocking. To picture this, imagine
a fast -moving stream of water. If you drop a
massive heavy boulder right into the middle of
that stream, the water doesn't just push the
boulder out of the way. It has to go around.
Right. It's forced to divert entirely around
it. So the boulder dictates the flow of the entire
stream. Exactly. In the atmosphere right now,
a massive, incredibly stubborn area of high pressure
has set up shop near Greenland. That high pressure
system is our atmospheric boulder. It is blocking
the normal west to east progression of weather
systems across the northern hemisphere. It acts
like a giant traffic barricade in the sky. It
forces the jet stream. which is that fast -moving
river of air high up in the atmosphere that steers
our weather to violently buckle. When the jet
stream hits that Greenland block, it takes a
deep, sharp dive southward, right over the eastern
United States. And as it dips down, it acts like
a giant scoop, pulling frigid Arctic air straight
down from Canada and funneling it directly into
the northeast. And because that Greenland block
is so massive and stubborn, it just sits there.
That is the key. The pattern gets entirely stuck.
The cold air continually flushes down into the
northeast, interacting with coastal moisture
to create these repeating lizards, completely
ignoring the fact that the calendar has turned
to March. The weather systems are essentially
trapped in a loop. It is a phenomenal display
of how deeply connected the global weather system
is. A high pressure system sitting over Greenland
is the reason someone in Boston is shoveling
their driveway for the third time this week,
while a different high pressure system bakes
someone in California. But what is the actual
engine driving this? Why is the jet stream suddenly
acting so erratically? To understand the mechanics
of this madness, we have to look closely at the
overall behavior of the jet stream right now.
We just talked about how it dips around the Greenland
block, but across the rest of the continent,
the jet stream's personality is shifting. Instead
of the deep, pronounced north -to -south waves
that kept much of the country cold earlier in
the winter, The jet stream over the West and
Central U .S. has become what meteorologists
sometimes refer to as lazy. A lazy jet stream.
Let's visualize that. How does a jet stream get
lazy? The best way to picture the jet stream
is to imagine two people holding a long jumping
rope. If you swing your arm wildly up and down,
it creates deep rolling waves that travel down
the rope. Like big peaks and valleys. Yes. In
the atmosphere, an active amplified jet stream
has those massive plunging dips and huge upward
ridges. That active wave pattern is what pulls
cold air far to the south and pushes warm air
far to the north. But if you hold that jump rope
and just barely wiggle your wrist, the rope stays
relatively flat. You've got it. A lazy jet stream
flows much more directly west to east, moving
straight across the country without those deep,
dramatic north -south waves. It loses its amplitude.
And reading through the research, this west -to
-east flow essentially acts like a giant atmospheric
fence. It does. A flat, lazy jet stream keeps
the coldest Arctic air trapped far to the north
in Canada. It acts as a barrier, preventing those
frigid air masses from plunging down into the
mid -latitudes. At the same time, because we
are transitioning into spring, the jet stream
naturally begins its seasonal retreat northward.
So the fence is moving north. And as that boundary
line shifts higher up into the continent, it
opens the floodgates for the southern half of
the United States. It allows that intense, unseasonable
warmth from the southern latitudes and the tropics
to just freely invade massive portions of the
country unhindered. That is a major reason why
we are seeing those 106 degree temperatures.
Here's where it gets really interesting, though.
Looking at the data you brought in, there is
a massive wild card currently in play that could
completely upend that lazy jet. stream. The meteorologists
who compiled this research are heavily focused
on an ongoing sudden stratospheric warming event.
Yes, sudden stratospheric warming or an SSW.
This is one of the most complex yet universally
impactful phenomena in meteorology. To really
grasp what an SSW is, we need to completely shift
our perspective. We live, breathe, and experience
all of our daily weather in the troposphere.
That is the lowest layer of the Earth's atmosphere.
But sitting directly above us is the stratosphere.
And the research notes that during the winter,
high over the North Pole, there is a feature
up in the stratosphere called the polar vortex.
I know that term gets thrown around a lot on
the news. It does, often incorrectly. The true
stratospheric polar vortex is a massive swirling
ring of exceptionally cold air and incredibly
strong winds rotating counterclockwise high above
the Arctic. The best way to conceptualize it
is to think of a spinning top. Like a toy top.
Right. As long as that top is spinning fast,
it stays tight, centered, and incredibly stable.
A strong, fast -spinning polar vortex keeps all
that freezing, brutal arctic air locked up tight
right over the pole. But a sudden stratospheric
warming event throws a wrench into that system.
A massive wrench. During an SSW, the temperatures
high up in the stratosphere can rapidly increase
by tens of degrees in just a matter of days.
It is a violent, sudden influx of heat. This
sudden burst of thermal energy completely destabilizes
our spinning top. So it starts to wobble. Exactly.
It wobbles. The winds slow down. The polar vortex
weakens, it stretches out of shape, and sometimes
the core of it splits entirely into multiple,
smaller vortices. I'm trying to picture the consequences
of that. If the vortex weakens and stretches
out, it can no longer hold that Arctic air in
place, right? Under normal circumstances, that
is exactly what happens. Meteorologists measure
this stability using an index called the Arctic
Oscillation, or the AO. When the polar vortex
is strong and spinning fast, the AO is positive.
and the cold air stays locked up north where
it belongs. When an SSW event weakens the vortex,
the AO typically flips to a negative phase. So
a negative AO means the cold air is escaping.
Think of it like a bowl filled with freezing
water. If the bowl cracks or tips over, that
frigid water spills out and plunges downward.
A negative AO allows that brutal arctic air to
spill out of the polar regions and plunge deep
into the mid -latitudes, spilling down into the
United States, across Europe, and into Asia.
It usually signals a massive late season deep
freeze. But I'm looking at the charts here and
the research right now is showing something highly
contradictory. Despite the fact that we are currently
in the middle of a major sudden stratospheric
warming event, the dynamical model guidance the
supercomputer forecasts show a positive Arctic
oscillation structure persistently hanging on.
And that contradiction is causing massive friction
within the meteorological community right now.
It is a fascinating standoff. The dynamical models,
these incredibly advanced supercomputers calculating
billions of atmospheric physics equations, are
insisting that despite the warming in the stratosphere,
the cold air will manage to stay locked up north.
They're predicting the AO stays positive. But
history and the known physics of how an SSW operates
say the exact opposite. Yes. The historical climatology
suggests that the bottom should eventually fall
out. History tells us that we should see a massive
delayed blast of Arctic air crashing down into
the troposphere. So you have the raw computer
models and the historical climatology essentially
in a bare -knuckle brawl. They are completely
fighting each other. And this must create immense
uncertainty for anyone trying to predict the
weather as we look toward late March. Will that
warm, lazy jet stream hold its ground and keep
the country baking? Or will the delayed effects
of that stratospheric warming finally crash through
the atmosphere and deliver a devastating late
season freeze? It is the ultimate meteorological
cliffhanger. As of right now, the data simply
reflects a massive question mark for the end
of the month. While the late March temperatures
remain a mystery we will just have to watch unfold,
the immediate threats on the horizon are unfortunately
very clear in this data. The research outlines
a looming multi -day severe weather threat targeting
millions of Americans. It spans a massive geographical
area across the South, stretching from Texas
all the way up through the Great Lakes and into
the Ohio Valley. This is a scenario where we
see the clash of these conflicting seasons turn
violent. The ingredients coming together for
this specific setup are classic, well -documented,
and highly concerning for anyone in those regions.
Let's break down those ingredients. We have all
this heat in the south, cold air trapped in the
west, and storms trying to move through. We talked
earlier about the lazy jet stream. But as this
new, powerful storm system begins to move inland
from the Pacific, it changes the geometry of
the atmosphere. We are seeing a pronounced, sharp,
southward dip in the jet stream developing over
the western U .S., perfectly paired with a massive
northward bulge or ridge over the eastern U .S.
The research refers to this as creating an atmospheric
highway. What does that mean in practical terms?
When you have a deep trough of low pressure in
the west and a strong ridge of high pressure
in the east, it creates a very steep, intense
pressure gradient between the two. The atmosphere
always wants to balance itself out, so air rushes
from high pressure to low pressure. In this specific
configuration, that rush of air forms a supercharged
wind corridor, an atmospheric highway blowing
straight from south to north. And what is sitting
directly south of this highway? The Gulf of Mexico.
That atmospheric highway acts like an industrial
vacuum. It is actively forcefully pulling incredibly
warm, deeply moist air directly out of the Gulf
of Mexico and surging it northward across the
southern plains and into the Midwest. I really
want to emphasize this point. The moisture drawn
from the Gulf of Mexico is the primary indispensable
fuel source for almost all severe weather in
the central and eastern United States. You cannot
have explosive thunderstorms without that rich
tropical moisture. So we have this massive river
of of warm, wet air surging north, but it doesn't
just sit there peacefully over Texas and Oklahoma.
Far from it. That warm, unstable air from the
Gulf of Mexico is on a collision course. Remember
that deep dip in the jet stream over the west?
That dip is driving colder, much drier air aggressively
eastward. So you have two completely different
air masses slamming into each other. It is an
atmospheric train wreck. Cold, dry air is incredibly
dense and heavy. Warm, moist air is light and
buoyant. When that dense, heavy cold front slams
into the warm, unstable air fed by the Gulf of
Mexico, the cold air acts like a physical wedge.
It forces the warm, moist air to violently and
rapidly rise into the atmosphere. And that violent
rising motion is what creates the severe storms.
Looking at the data, it indicates a high probability
for severe thunderstorms, large, damaging hail,
and the potential for tornadoes across a massive
swath of the country. It is a textbook severe
weather setup. It's nature finding the most violent
way possible to balance out the extreme temperature
differences we discussed earlier. And sadly,
this perfectly aligns with the climatology of
March. I think we need to talk about that climatology
because it might surprise some people. When I
think of tornado season, my mind immediately
goes to the movie Twister, to May or June out
in the middle of Oklahoma or Kansas. But the
data here highlights March as the true awakening
of the season. That is a very common misconception.
While May certainly produces a massive number
of tornadoes, March is incredibly volatile. Historically,
states situated further south, places like Texas,
Alabama, and Mississippi, actually see their
highest frequency of tornadoes during the month
of March. Why is March so dangerous for the Deep
South? It comes down to transition. March is
the transition point from winter to spring, which
means it provides the maximum possible temperature
contrast. You still have powerful roaring winter
jet streams dipping south, bringing intense wind
energy. But simultaneously, the sun angle is
getting higher, and you begin to introduce that
potent summer -like heat and humidity creeping
up from the Gulf of Mexico. The clash of the
titans. Exactly. Furthermore, the wind shear
in March is often incredibly strong. Wind shear
is the changing of wind speed and direction as
you go higher up in the atmosphere. That turning
of the winds with height is what gives a thunderstorm
the ability to rotate, and a rotating thunderstorm
is what produces a tornado. The research notes
from last year provide a very sobering reminder
of what this month is capable of. The data references
a devastating outbreak last year where 90 tornadoes
tore across 13 different states in March. It
is a critical reminder that the arrival of meteorological
spring on March 1st is entirely synonymous with
the start of severe weather season. The atmosphere
is waking up. If you live in these areas, you
cannot wait until May to prepare. You must have
multiple ways to receive warnings and a solid
plan in place right now. Moving beyond the threat
of wind, hail, and tornadoes, we have to look
at the immense contrast of water that is currently
forecast. This really highlights the extremes
of the current map. On one hand, we have a significant
widespread flood threat. Multiple ensemble models,
which are basically a collection of different
computer forecasts run together to find a consensus,
are projecting high probabilities of two to three
and a half inches of rain across the Tennessee
and Ohio valleys. To a casual observer, two to
three inches of rain over a couple of days might
just sound like a gloomy weekend. It might not
sound like a catastrophic amount of water, but
in meteorology, context is absolutely everything.
You have to look at the ground it is falling
on. The research brings up a metric used by the
National Weather Service called flash flood guidance.
How does that actually work? Flash flood guidance
is a highly localized calculation. The National
Weather Service looks at a specific county or
even a specific river basin and calculates exactly
how much rain needs to fall over a one hour,
three hour, or six hour period to initiate flash
flooding. It takes into account the current soil
moisture, the topography, and the local drainage
capacity. And the problem right now is the soil
conditions in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
The data shows some of these areas have been
unseasonably dry. When soil is deprived of moisture
for an extended period, especially under an unseasonably
warm sun, the surface bakes. It becomes hard,
compacted, and incredibly resistant to absorbing
water. The term in the notes is that the soil
becomes almost hydrophobic. It actively repels
the water. It does. It loses its porosity. So
when you suddenly dump three inches of heavy
rain onto baked, hard -packed earth, the water
doesn't absorb into the ground like a sponge.
It immediately pools and rushes over the surface.
This leads to what hydrologists call excessive
runoff. And that runoff has to go somewhere.
It follows gravity. It rushes into street drains,
small creeks and streams. Because none of the
water is being held back by the soil, those drainage
systems are completely overwhelmed in a matter
of hours, leading to rapid, dangerous flash flooding
in areas you might not expect. That is a massive
threat for the Midwest and the South. But the
research also notes that up in the Northeast,
the flood threat isn't just coming from the rain
falling from the sky. No, the Northeast faces
a very unique compounding threat. We just discussed
the historic blizzards currently burying the
I -95 corridor. Those blizzards are leaving behind
a massive, incredibly deep snowpack. But the
atmospheric blocking pattern won't last forever.
As anomalous spring warmth inevitably pushes
into the northeast, accompanied by heavy spring
rain, it threatens to rapidly melt that snow.
So you have rain falling from the clouds, plus
millions of gallons of water locked in the snow
suddenly turning liquid at the exact same time.
It is a double -barreled threat. When you combine
heavy rain with a rapid temperature -driven snow
melt, the sheer volume of water entering the
river system simultaneously is immense. The rivers
swell rapidly, break their banks, and can cause
widespread catastrophic regional flooding. It
is an overwhelming abundance of water threatening
the eastern half of the country. But if you look
just a little bit further south, down to Florida,
the picture painted by the data is terrifyingly
dry. The contrast in water distribution across
the United States right now is stark. We're looking
at massive flood threats in the valleys, yet
the research clearly shows that 100 % of the
state of Florida is currently classified as being
in a drought every single county. And the data
specifies this is not just a mild early season
dry spell. 67 % of the state is classified as
being in extreme drought. Extreme drought means
major crop losses are occurring, fire risk is
extreme, and widespread water shortages are likely.
The vegetation across the state is incredibly
stressed. And looking at the projected storm
tracks for this massive multi -day severe weather
threat we just discussed, the southeast might
miss this rainfall entirely. That is the cruel
irony of the current atmospheric setup. The very
same high pressure ridge in the east that is
acting like a wall pulling the storms northward
up that atmospheric highway will likely keep
Florida and much of the southeast entirely dry.
The rain will essentially detour right around
them. Which leaves them incredibly vulnerable.
It drastically increases their spring wildfire
risk. You have parched, dying vegetation, steadily
rising spring temperatures, and absolutely no
moisture relief in sight. If any dry lightning
strikes occur, or if there is any human -clawed
spark like a discarded cigarette or a poorly
managed campfire, the environment is absolutely
primed for rapid, uncontrollable fire spread.
So what does this all mean when we zoom out?
We have spent the first half of this deep dive
looking at incredibly intense local disasters,
106 degrees in Texas, atmospheric blocking over
Greenland freezing Boston, hydrophobic soil in
the Ohio Valley, and extreme drought in Florida.
But the research insists that we look at the
larger global drivers because the foundation
beneath all of these local events is shifting.
To truly understand the global atmospheric picture,
we have to look far away from the United States.
We have to look down at the equatorial Pacific
Ocean. Specifically, we have to examine the transition
of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or what
meteorologists refer to as ENSO. Based on the
data, we have been under the influence of La
Niña since roughly December 2024. But the research
notes that this particular La Niña has been relatively
weak and fairly short -lived compared to historical
averages. It has been underperforming, so to
speak. And now, the data indicates it is officially
fading away entirely. The latest projections
from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
commonly referred to as NOAA, predict a 60 %
chance of transitioning into ENSO -neutral conditions
between February and April of 2026. So we are
moving out of La Niña and into a neutral state,
which often serves as a stepping stone toward
El Niño. Before we talk about what neutral or
El Niño means for the future of our weather patterns,
let's touch on the history of these phenomena
because I was reading the background information
in the sources and the naming convention alone
is fascinating. It is one of my favorite pieces
of meteorological history. It really shows how
local observations eventually unlocked global
scientific understanding. The notes detail how,
back in the 19th century, Peruvian and Ecuadorian
fishermen noticed a strange pattern. Every few
years, the ocean waters off their South American
coasts would become unusually incredibly warm.
And for fishermen who rely on cold, nutrient
-rich water to sustain the local fish populations,
this anomalous warm water was devastating. It
would completely disrupt the marine ecosystem,
starving the fish and effectively ruining their
crucial anchovy catch for the season. season.
Because this devastating warming trend typically
peaked right around late December, the fishermen
named the phenomenon El Niño, which translates
from Spanish to the boy or specifically the Christ
child in reference to Christmas. It was a local
term for a local economic disaster. It was only
much, much later as global climate science advanced
and we began taking global temperature readings
that meteorologists realized this wasn't just
a localized fishing problem in South America.
They discovered it was actually a massive fluctuation
in ocean temperatures that drives weather patterns
across the entire planet. Once they understood
that, scientists coined the term La Niña, which
means the girl to represent the exact opposite
phase when those same equatorial Pacific waters
become unusually cool. Let's discuss the global
impacts of these phases, particularly La Niña
since we are supposedly just coming out of one
right now. La Niña fundamentally alters the global
atmospheric circulation patterns. When the waters
in the Eastern Pacific cool down, it alters where
the massive thunderstorms form over the ocean.
Typically, a La Ni Ni event pushes the warmest
water westward toward Asia. This shift alters
the jet streams globally, and typically brings
significantly wetter, sometimes flood -inducing
conditions to places like Australia, India, in
Southeast Asia. And conversely, the data shows
it leads to much drier conditions across parts
of South America. Yes. And here in the United
States, a La Nina winter often leads to a drier,
warmer southern tier, which we certainly saw
in Texas and Florida, and a wetter, colder northern
tier. Though, as we've extensively discussed
today with our broken weather map, the atmosphere
doesn't always read the textbook. But there is
a critical, almost alarming data point in the
research regarding this past La Nina. La Nina
is fundamentally a cooling of the ocean, which
generally translates to a net cool effect on
global average atmospheric temperatures. It acts
like a giant natural air conditioner for the
planet. Yet the data states that even with that
vast expanse of cooler ocean water actively trying
to chill the atmosphere, the year 2025 was still
tied for the second or third hottest year on
historical record globally. That is a profound
statement about the underlying relentless warming
trend of the entire climate system. Historically,
a strong La Nina would guarantee a dip in global
temperatures for the year. The fact that we just
experienced one of the hottest years in human
history during a La Nina phase means that the
natural cooling cycle of the ocean is no longer
powerful enough to mask the overall background
warming of the planet. And tracking this background
warming has actually forced scientists to update
the very metrics they used to define El Nino
and La Nina. NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, has officially changed how they
track ENSO. This represents a major necessary
shift in scientific methodology. For decades,
meteorologists relied on a metric called the
Oceanic Nino Index, or the ONI. This old index
worked by comparing the current three -month
average sea surface temperature in a specific
patch of the Pacific against a historical 30
-year average for that exact same geographical
area. But the research indicates a fatal flaw
with that method in our current climate. The
fatal flaw is shifting baselines. The entire
world's oceans are warming, and they're warming
rapidly. If you are trying to determine if a
specific patch of the Pacific is anomalously
warm today, but you are comparing it to an average
from the 1990s or 2000s when the ocean was already
artificially warming, you get a skewed result.
It's like trying to measure if a pot of water
on the stove is boiling by comparing it to how
warm the water was 10 minutes ago, rather than
comparing it to room temperature. The baseline
is ruined. That is a great analogy. Comparing
warm water to water that was already warming
means you drastically underestimate the true
severity of the anomaly. So what is the new metric
that NOAA has adopted? NOAA has transitioned
to using the Relative Oceanic Nino Index, or
ORNI -I. Instead of looking backward at corrupted
historical averages, RNi is a dynamic real -time
measurement. It compares the temperature of the
East Central Pacific to the temperature of the
rest of the global tropics at this exact moment.
So it measures how much warmer or cooler the
El Nino region is relative to the entire tropical
ocean today rather than decades ago. Precisely.
It filters out the background global warming
to isolate the actual ENSO signal. It is a much
more responsive, accurate way to track the mechanics
of the climate in a rapidly changing world. Speaking
of a rapidly changing world, the research we
were reviewing also briefly notes how broader
environmental policies and governmental shifts
impact the tracking, funding, and action regarding
climate science. For instance, the data specifically
mentions the EPA, the Environmental Protection
Agency, revoking the endangerment finding regarding
greenhouse gases. That is a crucial piece of
the broader context. When we look at this objectively,
entirely separate from any political ideology
or partisan debate, the revocation of the EPA
endangerment finding represents a fundamental
structural shift in how environmental policy
interacts with climate science at the national
level. The research highlights that these regulatory
changes have ripple effects. Absolutely. Policy
dictates resources. Shifts of this magnitude
can vastly complicate the landscape of climate
science. They can affect how meteorological research
is funded, how tracking mechanisms like new satellites
are deployed, and how national response strategies
for extreme weather are developed, regardless
of what the raw meteorological data on the ground
is screaming. It is a reminder that the science
of meteorology does not exist in a vacuum. It
exists within a framework of human governance.
Our mission today is to stick to that data, and
the data pointing toward the five -year horizon
is stark. Moving into the final section of our
roadmap, the World Meteorological Organization,
the WMO, alongside the UK's Met Office, has released
research that truly pushes the bounds of what
we thought was possible. The statistics delivered
in this WMO update are striking. and, quite frankly,
sobering. They are predicting a 98 % chance that
at least one of the next five years, specifically
between 2023 and 2027, and the five -year period
as a whole, will be the warmest on historical
record. A 98 % certainty in a meteorological
forecast of that duration seems practically unheard
of. Forecasting the weather next week is difficult
enough. It is incredibly rare to see that level
of confidence in a long -range forecast. It speaks
to the immense undeniable momentum that is built
up inside the climate system. We are looking
at a powerful compounding combination of factors.
First, you have the steady, relentless accumulation
of human -induced greenhouse gases trapping heat
in the troposphere. That provides an ever -rising
baseline of heat. And then you combine that with
the ENSO transition we just discussed. Right.
We combine that elevated baseline with the looming
return of a warming El Nino event. If El Nino
is the air conditioner, El Nino is the heater.
El Nino naturally spikes global atmospheric temperatures.
When you stack a powerful El Nino on top of the
highest baseline temperatures in human history,
you mathematically force the global average into
completely uncharted territory. If we connect
this to the bigger picture, the research inevitably
brings up the Paris Agreement and the famous
1 .5 degrees Celsius threshold. This is a number
we see in the headlines constantly. It is, and
this is a critical nuance that the WMO research
goes out of its way to clarify. It is vital that
we explain this carefully so as not to misrepresent
the data. The WMO states there is a 66 % likelihood
that the annual average global temperature will
exceed 1 .5 degrees Celsius above pre -industrial
levels for at least one year within this upcoming
five -year window. When you hear that, it sounds
like an admission of failure. It sounds like
we have officially failed the core tenet of the
Paris Agreement. It absolutely sounds like it
to the layperson, but scientifically and legally,
we have not. The Paris Agreement's 1 .5 -degree
threshold does not apply to a single rogue year.
It refers to long -term multi -decade climatological
averages. Hitting or exceeding 1 .5 degrees for
one single exceptionally hot El Nino year does
not mean we have permanently breached the target
or structurally failed the agreement. That is
an important distinction. However, reading between
the lines of the data. However, it is a massive
blaring alarm bell for the planet. It proves
that we are now actively brushing up against
a thermal limit that, just a decade ago, was
considered a distant worst -case scenario. It
means that while the multi -decade average might
not be there yet, we will be breaching that 1
.5 degree level on a temporary basis with increasing
compounding frequency in the years to come. And
the research makes it very clear that these temperature
breaches will not be felt equally across the
globe. The data points out very specific disproportionate
regional impacts that will alter global ecosystems.
The Arctic is the most glaring, urgent example
in the data. The research notes that Arctic warming
is currently happening at three times the global
average rate. Why is the Arctic warming so much
faster than, say, the equator? It is primarily
due to a devastating feedback loop involving
the loss of reflective sea ice. Ice is white.
It reflects solar radiation back into space.
Ocean water is dark. It absorbs solar radiation.
As the Arctic warms, the ice melts, exposing
more dark water. That dark water absorbs more
heat from the sun, which in turn melts more ice,
which exposes more water. It is a runaway acceleration.
The rainfall predictions outlined for this five
-year window are equally disruptive to the global
status quo. The shifting of global temperatures
means the shifting of global precipitation. The
WMO data suggests we will see significantly,
proficently wetter conditions in regions like
the Sahel, in Africa, Northern Europe, and Alaska.
But simultaneously, the data forecasts drastically
reduced rainfall over other crucial regions.
Yes, we are looking at forecasts for severe prolonged
droughts over the Amazon Basin and massive parts
of Australia. I want to stress that these aren't
just fascinating numbers on a meteorological
chart. These represent massive destabilizing
shifts in global agriculture, water security,
and ecosystem survival for billions of people
and animals. It's a lot to process, honestly.
When you look at the totality of what we've discussed
today, it's overwhelming. This raises an important
question. one that goes far beyond the raw meteorological
data, the temperature records, and the computer
models we've discussed today. When you step back
and look at the sheer scale of these massive
atmospheric swings, from 106 -degree winter days
in Texas to sudden, paralyzing blizzards in the
northeast, from entrenched La Niñas that still
somehow produce record heat to the looming threat
of record -breaking El Niños pushing us past
the 1 .5 -degree threshold, it becomes clear
that the concept of normal weather is officially
obsolete. The baseline has shifted entirely.
The provocative question for you to consider
as you digest this research is this. How do we
as individuals, as local communities, and as
a global society begin to design our lives, our
infrastructure, and our daily routines around
a baseline of constant, unpredictable atmospheric
volatility? How do you build a resilient future
when the sky above you outright refuses to follow
the rules of the past? You've been listening
to Meteorology Matters, created by meteorologist
Rob Jones. Thanks for listening, and remember,
meteorology always matters.