WEBVTT 00:00:00.799 --> 00:00:03.960 It's the first week of March, 2026. And looking 00:00:03.960 --> 00:00:06.219 at the raw data right in front of us, the weather 00:00:06.219 --> 00:00:09.119 is just, it's completely undeniably broken. It 00:00:09.119 --> 00:00:11.160 really is. We are currently staring at a map 00:00:11.160 --> 00:00:13.939 that makes absolutely no logical sense whatsoever. 00:00:14.699 --> 00:00:16.660 On one side of the country, people are sweltering 00:00:16.660 --> 00:00:20.010 through 106 degree heat. in what is technically 00:00:20.010 --> 00:00:23.829 still the dead of winter. It's dangerous, blistering 00:00:23.829 --> 00:00:26.730 mid -summer heat. And yet, on the exact opposite 00:00:26.730 --> 00:00:29.210 side of the country, entire communities are currently 00:00:29.210 --> 00:00:32.270 paralyzed, buried under historic blizzards with 00:00:32.270 --> 00:00:34.929 emergency crews working around the clock. It 00:00:34.929 --> 00:00:37.549 is an absolute atmospheric traffic jam out there. 00:00:37.990 --> 00:00:40.350 Today, our mission is to untangle this bizarre 00:00:40.350 --> 00:00:42.990 global weather map and figure out exactly what 00:00:42.990 --> 00:00:45.390 the science says is driving these massive extremes 00:00:45.390 --> 00:00:48.509 as we transition into spring. to Meteorology 00:00:48.509 --> 00:00:50.530 Matters, the podcast that dives deep into the 00:00:50.530 --> 00:00:52.469 science, chaos, and stories behind the weather 00:00:52.469 --> 00:00:54.869 that shapes our world. This show was created 00:00:54.869 --> 00:00:57.549 by meteorologist Rob Jones. Now let's get into 00:00:57.549 --> 00:01:00.270 today's episode of Meteorology Matters. It is 00:01:00.270 --> 00:01:02.590 truly a wild time to be looking at the atmosphere, 00:01:02.649 --> 00:01:05.409 and I am really looking forward to breaking all 00:01:05.409 --> 00:01:07.609 of this down for you today. Before we jump into 00:01:07.609 --> 00:01:09.769 the sheer chaos of this data, we want to take 00:01:09.769 --> 00:01:12.650 a quick second to ask you to please like, follow, 00:01:13.049 --> 00:01:14.969 comment, and rate the podcast wherever you are 00:01:14.969 --> 00:01:17.510 listening. Taking a few seconds to do that really 00:01:17.510 --> 00:01:20.109 helps us bring this research to more people who 00:01:20.109 --> 00:01:22.349 want to understand what is happening in the sky 00:01:22.349 --> 00:01:25.430 above them. Absolutely. Also, make sure you follow 00:01:25.430 --> 00:01:27.950 meteorologist Rob Jones across social media. 00:01:28.269 --> 00:01:31.010 You can find him on Instagram at The Handle Meteorologist, 00:01:31.310 --> 00:01:34.209 on TikTok at TVMeteorologist, and on YouTube 00:01:34.209 --> 00:01:36.709 at Rob Jones Hurricane, where you can also find 00:01:36.709 --> 00:01:39.189 the full Meteorology Matters podcast playlist. 00:01:39.480 --> 00:01:42.239 What's fascinating here is how the atmosphere 00:01:42.239 --> 00:01:44.420 right now is essentially acting like a massive 00:01:44.420 --> 00:01:46.900 battleground. When you look at the research we've 00:01:46.900 --> 00:01:50.420 compiled, we have entirely conflicting seasons 00:01:50.420 --> 00:01:52.879 fighting for dominance across the continent. 00:01:53.959 --> 00:01:56.040 And the stakes for the people living under these 00:01:56.040 --> 00:01:58.379 systems are incredibly high. That is the perfect 00:01:58.379 --> 00:02:01.379 way to frame it, a battleground. To give you 00:02:01.379 --> 00:02:03.519 a roadmap of where we are heading today, we are 00:02:03.519 --> 00:02:05.959 going to start by covering those shattered temperature 00:02:05.959 --> 00:02:08.460 records out west, really looking at the mechanics 00:02:08.460 --> 00:02:11.400 of that heat. Physics of it, yeah. Exactly. Then 00:02:11.400 --> 00:02:14.180 we are going to look way up high into the atmosphere 00:02:14.180 --> 00:02:17.860 to understand the bizarre, lazy behavior of the 00:02:17.860 --> 00:02:21.099 jet stream right now. From there, we will break 00:02:21.099 --> 00:02:24.379 down a severe storm threat that is actively drawing 00:02:24.379 --> 00:02:27.000 dangerous moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Which 00:02:27.000 --> 00:02:30.439 is a huge concern. A massive concern. And finally, 00:02:30.699 --> 00:02:33.280 we will zoom out to the global level, look at 00:02:33.280 --> 00:02:36.520 the fading La Nina, and discuss a rather startling 00:02:36.520 --> 00:02:39.479 five -year global climate forecast that has just 00:02:39.479 --> 00:02:41.719 been released by the research. It is a massive 00:02:41.719 --> 00:02:44.360 amount of ground to cover. But understanding 00:02:44.360 --> 00:02:47.120 the why behind the weather outside your window, 00:02:47.740 --> 00:02:50.199 rather than just the what, has really never been 00:02:50.199 --> 00:02:52.479 more critical for your daily life. Okay, let's 00:02:52.479 --> 00:02:54.539 unpack this absolute divide across the nation. 00:02:54.900 --> 00:02:56.680 The heat wave in the West and the South is one 00:02:56.680 --> 00:02:58.900 thing to experience, but when you actually look 00:02:58.900 --> 00:03:01.259 at the historical data, it is not just unusual, 00:03:01.400 --> 00:03:03.419 it is record -shattering. It's unprecedented. 00:03:03.639 --> 00:03:05.740 The numbers we are seeing in the research are 00:03:05.740 --> 00:03:08.199 genuinely hard to process for late February and 00:03:08.199 --> 00:03:11.400 early March. For example, Falcon Dam, Texas. 00:03:11.879 --> 00:03:14.460 The data shows they hit 106 degrees Fahrenheit 00:03:14.460 --> 00:03:18.060 on February 26th. That is officially the hottest 00:03:18.060 --> 00:03:20.219 winter day ever recorded in the United States. 00:03:20.340 --> 00:03:22.099 I think we need to pause and just let that sink 00:03:22.099 --> 00:03:26.120 in for a moment. 106 degrees in winter in February. 00:03:26.520 --> 00:03:29.379 We are not talking about a pleasantly warm afternoon 00:03:29.379 --> 00:03:31.240 where you take off your jacket and enjoy the 00:03:31.240 --> 00:03:34.979 sun. We are talking about peak summer, dangerous 00:03:34.979 --> 00:03:37.780 heat indices occurring while the calendar still 00:03:37.780 --> 00:03:41.060 definitively says it is winter. This is heat 00:03:41.060 --> 00:03:43.759 that stresses the human body, it stresses local 00:03:43.759 --> 00:03:46.199 power grids, and completely tricks the local 00:03:46.199 --> 00:03:48.419 flora and fauna into thinking we are deep into 00:03:48.419 --> 00:03:50.699 July. And reading through the notes, it becomes 00:03:50.699 --> 00:03:53.400 clear very quickly that this was not an isolated 00:03:53.400 --> 00:03:56.060 freak event for one single town. No, not at all. 00:03:56.169 --> 00:03:59.849 It is regional. Laredo, Texas hit 103 degrees, 00:03:59.930 --> 00:04:02.789 marking its hottest February day ever. Then you 00:04:02.789 --> 00:04:06.129 move over to California. Riverside reached 93 00:04:06.129 --> 00:04:08.750 degrees, which completely obliterated a previous 00:04:08.750 --> 00:04:11.830 record that had stood since 1972. El Centro hit 00:04:11.830 --> 00:04:14.689 96 degrees. So what is actually happening in 00:04:14.689 --> 00:04:16.850 the atmosphere to create a furnace like this 00:04:16.850 --> 00:04:18.949 in the winter? When you look at the broader scope 00:04:18.949 --> 00:04:22.189 of the atmospheric data, this heat is a result 00:04:22.189 --> 00:04:24.800 of a persistent ridge of high pressure. that 00:04:24.800 --> 00:04:26.800 has essentially parked itself over the western 00:04:26.800 --> 00:04:30.339 half of the country. To understand why high pressure 00:04:30.339 --> 00:04:33.120 equals extreme heat, you have to picture the 00:04:33.120 --> 00:04:35.779 air itself. Okay. A high pressure system features 00:04:35.779 --> 00:04:38.279 sinking air. The atmosphere is literally pushing 00:04:38.279 --> 00:04:41.259 down toward the surface. As that air sinks lower 00:04:41.259 --> 00:04:43.720 and lower, the atmospheric pressure around it 00:04:43.720 --> 00:04:46.500 increases, which compresses the air. And when 00:04:46.500 --> 00:04:48.959 you compress a gas, it heats up? Precisely. It 00:04:48.959 --> 00:04:51.379 is basic thermodynamics. As that massive column 00:04:51.379 --> 00:04:53.860 of air compresses, it dramatically warms up before 00:04:53.860 --> 00:04:56.139 it ever even reaches the ground. On top of that, 00:04:56.439 --> 00:04:58.860 sinking air suppresses cloud formation. It clears 00:04:58.860 --> 00:05:01.519 out the sky entirely. So there's no shade. Exactly. 00:05:01.720 --> 00:05:05.379 Zero shade. So you have mechanically warmed air 00:05:05.379 --> 00:05:07.759 combined with a complete lack of cloud cover, 00:05:08.240 --> 00:05:10.839 allowing the sun to just mercilessly bake the 00:05:10.839 --> 00:05:13.699 surface day after day. For much of the western 00:05:13.699 --> 00:05:16.100 half of the country, this persistent setup has 00:05:16.100 --> 00:05:18.459 resulted in the warmest winter on record. That 00:05:18.459 --> 00:05:21.060 unrelenting sunshine sounds great if you're on 00:05:21.060 --> 00:05:23.160 a beach vacation, but the research points out 00:05:23.160 --> 00:05:26.100 a massive terrifying flip side to this persistent 00:05:26.100 --> 00:05:29.160 heat. While the 106 degree records are grabbing 00:05:29.160 --> 00:05:32.160 all the headlines, the notes emphasize a chronic 00:05:32.160 --> 00:05:36.759 lack of snow. The snow drought, yes. From a meteorological 00:05:36.759 --> 00:05:39.040 and ecological standpoint, the lack of snow across 00:05:39.040 --> 00:05:41.079 the western United States is arguably the more 00:05:41.079 --> 00:05:44.040 dangerous long term story hidden inside this 00:05:44.040 --> 00:05:46.500 heat wave. We are currently monitoring the worst 00:05:46.500 --> 00:05:49.100 snow drought in decades gripping the West. I 00:05:49.100 --> 00:05:50.680 was reading through the impact reports on this 00:05:50.680 --> 00:05:52.740 and it really struck me how this affects everyone, 00:05:52.959 --> 00:05:54.620 not just the ski resorts. The snowpack in the 00:05:54.620 --> 00:05:56.879 Western Mountains acts as a sort of frozen reservoir, 00:05:57.100 --> 00:05:59.240 right? That is a brilliant way to visualize it. 00:05:59.860 --> 00:06:03.209 It is nature's water tower. In a normal, healthy 00:06:03.209 --> 00:06:05.970 winter, snow accumulates in the high elevations 00:06:05.970 --> 00:06:08.449 layer by layer. It stays frozen up there. Then 00:06:08.449 --> 00:06:10.389 as we move through spring and into the hot summer 00:06:10.389 --> 00:06:14.170 months, that massive snowpack slowly and steadily 00:06:14.170 --> 00:06:17.370 melts. It feeds the whole system. It does. That 00:06:17.370 --> 00:06:20.009 slow melt is the lifeblood of the West. It provides 00:06:20.009 --> 00:06:22.310 a consistent metered water supply that fills 00:06:22.310 --> 00:06:25.029 the rivers, supplies drinking water for millions 00:06:25.029 --> 00:06:28.389 of people, sustains massive agricultural operations, 00:06:28.649 --> 00:06:31.269 and spins the turbines for hydroelectric power. 00:06:31.600 --> 00:06:34.040 So when we see a massive snow drought like we 00:06:34.040 --> 00:06:36.600 are seeing right now, that natural reservoir 00:06:36.600 --> 00:06:38.879 is virtually empty before the high -demand summer 00:06:38.879 --> 00:06:41.620 months even begin. It creates a severe deficit. 00:06:41.899 --> 00:06:44.279 The cascading impacts are profound. The data 00:06:44.279 --> 00:06:46.519 shows how this immediately forces local governments 00:06:46.519 --> 00:06:49.139 to rethink water allocations, but the threat 00:06:49.139 --> 00:06:51.639 extends far beyond just drinking water. Think 00:06:51.639 --> 00:06:53.959 about the landscape. The forests. Right. Without 00:06:53.959 --> 00:06:56.579 that slow, steady moisture seeping into the soil 00:06:56.579 --> 00:06:59.360 throughout May and June, the deep forests and 00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:02.019 the low brush become completely parched incredibly 00:07:02.019 --> 00:07:04.339 early in the season. It sounds like it is creating 00:07:04.339 --> 00:07:07.100 a giant tinderbox. It absolutely is a tinderbox. 00:07:07.579 --> 00:07:09.699 The research points directly to a significantly 00:07:09.699 --> 00:07:12.839 increased vulnerability to severe, fast -moving 00:07:12.839 --> 00:07:15.860 wildfires. Because the vegetation dries out months 00:07:15.860 --> 00:07:18.899 earlier than usual, the wildfire season is artificially 00:07:18.899 --> 00:07:21.949 extended and intensified. and we cannot ignore 00:07:21.949 --> 00:07:24.470 the immediate economic devastation to winter 00:07:24.470 --> 00:07:27.589 tourism and recreation. The ski towns. Exactly. 00:07:28.149 --> 00:07:30.310 Entire mountain communities rely on that three 00:07:30.310 --> 00:07:32.949 or four month winter economy. The skiers, the 00:07:32.949 --> 00:07:35.870 snowboarders, the lodges to survive for the entire 00:07:35.870 --> 00:07:38.850 year. When the snow doesn't show up, those local 00:07:38.850 --> 00:07:41.410 economies collapse. It is a devastating domino 00:07:41.410 --> 00:07:44.490 effect. Meanwhile, as the West bakes and waits 00:07:44.490 --> 00:07:46.730 for a snowpack that simply isn't coming, the 00:07:46.730 --> 00:07:49.490 East Coast is experiencing severe atmospheric 00:07:49.490 --> 00:07:52.069 whiplash. According to the data we are reviewing, 00:07:52.230 --> 00:07:54.110 the Northeast is currently digging out from a 00:07:54.110 --> 00:07:56.670 historic, paralyzing blizzard straight along 00:07:56.670 --> 00:07:59.990 the highly populated I -95 corridor. The contrast 00:07:59.990 --> 00:08:02.250 is staggering when you view the country from 00:08:02.250 --> 00:08:04.939 a satellite perspective. You literally have people 00:08:04.939 --> 00:08:06.819 running emergency air conditioners to survive 00:08:06.819 --> 00:08:10.220 the heat in Texas while thousands of miles away 00:08:10.220 --> 00:08:14.439 people are completely snowed in relying on snowplows 00:08:14.439 --> 00:08:17.040 and emergency services just to leave their neighborhoods 00:08:17.040 --> 00:08:19.139 in the Northeast. And the really wild part in 00:08:19.139 --> 00:08:20.779 the research is that they are not out of the 00:08:20.779 --> 00:08:24.519 woods yet. The data indicates another round and 00:08:24.519 --> 00:08:27.680 possibly two more rounds of accumulating snow 00:08:27.680 --> 00:08:30.500 eyeing those exact same winter weary regions 00:08:30.500 --> 00:08:35.210 this coming week. keep dumping heavy snow on 00:08:35.210 --> 00:08:37.750 the exact same spot in March, while the rest 00:08:37.750 --> 00:08:40.929 of the country feels like July. The notes mention 00:08:40.929 --> 00:08:42.909 something called a Greenland block. I've never 00:08:42.909 --> 00:08:45.429 heard of that. It is a fantastic meteorological 00:08:45.429 --> 00:08:47.830 concept. It comes down to a phenomenon known 00:08:47.830 --> 00:08:50.889 as atmospheric blocking. To picture this, imagine 00:08:50.889 --> 00:08:53.870 a fast -moving stream of water. If you drop a 00:08:53.870 --> 00:08:55.809 massive heavy boulder right into the middle of 00:08:55.809 --> 00:08:58.210 that stream, the water doesn't just push the 00:08:58.210 --> 00:08:59.870 boulder out of the way. It has to go around. 00:08:59.970 --> 00:09:02.149 Right. It's forced to divert entirely around 00:09:02.149 --> 00:09:04.750 it. So the boulder dictates the flow of the entire 00:09:04.750 --> 00:09:07.529 stream. Exactly. In the atmosphere right now, 00:09:07.789 --> 00:09:11.370 a massive, incredibly stubborn area of high pressure 00:09:11.370 --> 00:09:14.370 has set up shop near Greenland. That high pressure 00:09:14.370 --> 00:09:17.850 system is our atmospheric boulder. It is blocking 00:09:17.850 --> 00:09:20.649 the normal west to east progression of weather 00:09:20.649 --> 00:09:22.909 systems across the northern hemisphere. It acts 00:09:22.909 --> 00:09:25.750 like a giant traffic barricade in the sky. It 00:09:25.750 --> 00:09:28.440 forces the jet stream. which is that fast -moving 00:09:28.440 --> 00:09:30.840 river of air high up in the atmosphere that steers 00:09:30.840 --> 00:09:33.899 our weather to violently buckle. When the jet 00:09:33.899 --> 00:09:36.259 stream hits that Greenland block, it takes a 00:09:36.259 --> 00:09:38.659 deep, sharp dive southward, right over the eastern 00:09:38.659 --> 00:09:41.559 United States. And as it dips down, it acts like 00:09:41.559 --> 00:09:44.600 a giant scoop, pulling frigid Arctic air straight 00:09:44.600 --> 00:09:46.799 down from Canada and funneling it directly into 00:09:46.799 --> 00:09:48.799 the northeast. And because that Greenland block 00:09:48.799 --> 00:09:51.259 is so massive and stubborn, it just sits there. 00:09:51.480 --> 00:09:54.139 That is the key. The pattern gets entirely stuck. 00:09:54.360 --> 00:09:57.019 The cold air continually flushes down into the 00:09:57.019 --> 00:09:59.259 northeast, interacting with coastal moisture 00:09:59.259 --> 00:10:01.480 to create these repeating lizards, completely 00:10:01.480 --> 00:10:03.039 ignoring the fact that the calendar has turned 00:10:03.039 --> 00:10:05.340 to March. The weather systems are essentially 00:10:05.340 --> 00:10:08.039 trapped in a loop. It is a phenomenal display 00:10:08.039 --> 00:10:10.539 of how deeply connected the global weather system 00:10:10.539 --> 00:10:13.799 is. A high pressure system sitting over Greenland 00:10:13.799 --> 00:10:16.419 is the reason someone in Boston is shoveling 00:10:16.419 --> 00:10:18.379 their driveway for the third time this week, 00:10:18.679 --> 00:10:20.600 while a different high pressure system bakes 00:10:20.600 --> 00:10:24.000 someone in California. But what is the actual 00:10:24.000 --> 00:10:27.019 engine driving this? Why is the jet stream suddenly 00:10:27.019 --> 00:10:29.860 acting so erratically? To understand the mechanics 00:10:29.860 --> 00:10:32.480 of this madness, we have to look closely at the 00:10:32.480 --> 00:10:34.460 overall behavior of the jet stream right now. 00:10:35.399 --> 00:10:37.559 We just talked about how it dips around the Greenland 00:10:37.559 --> 00:10:39.820 block, but across the rest of the continent, 00:10:40.039 --> 00:10:42.919 the jet stream's personality is shifting. Instead 00:10:42.919 --> 00:10:45.399 of the deep, pronounced north -to -south waves 00:10:45.399 --> 00:10:47.379 that kept much of the country cold earlier in 00:10:47.379 --> 00:10:49.740 the winter, The jet stream over the West and 00:10:49.740 --> 00:10:52.519 Central U .S. has become what meteorologists 00:10:52.519 --> 00:10:55.500 sometimes refer to as lazy. A lazy jet stream. 00:10:55.559 --> 00:10:58.059 Let's visualize that. How does a jet stream get 00:10:58.059 --> 00:10:59.980 lazy? The best way to picture the jet stream 00:10:59.980 --> 00:11:02.659 is to imagine two people holding a long jumping 00:11:02.659 --> 00:11:05.720 rope. If you swing your arm wildly up and down, 00:11:05.960 --> 00:11:08.360 it creates deep rolling waves that travel down 00:11:08.360 --> 00:11:11.919 the rope. Like big peaks and valleys. Yes. In 00:11:11.919 --> 00:11:15.139 the atmosphere, an active amplified jet stream 00:11:15.139 --> 00:11:19.399 has those massive plunging dips and huge upward 00:11:19.399 --> 00:11:22.200 ridges. That active wave pattern is what pulls 00:11:22.200 --> 00:11:24.720 cold air far to the south and pushes warm air 00:11:24.720 --> 00:11:26.840 far to the north. But if you hold that jump rope 00:11:26.840 --> 00:11:29.240 and just barely wiggle your wrist, the rope stays 00:11:29.240 --> 00:11:32.299 relatively flat. You've got it. A lazy jet stream 00:11:32.299 --> 00:11:35.320 flows much more directly west to east, moving 00:11:35.320 --> 00:11:37.460 straight across the country without those deep, 00:11:37.759 --> 00:11:40.419 dramatic north -south waves. It loses its amplitude. 00:11:40.620 --> 00:11:42.620 And reading through the research, this west -to 00:11:42.620 --> 00:11:45.500 -east flow essentially acts like a giant atmospheric 00:11:45.500 --> 00:11:48.960 fence. It does. A flat, lazy jet stream keeps 00:11:48.960 --> 00:11:51.340 the coldest Arctic air trapped far to the north 00:11:51.340 --> 00:11:54.460 in Canada. It acts as a barrier, preventing those 00:11:54.460 --> 00:11:56.320 frigid air masses from plunging down into the 00:11:56.320 --> 00:11:58.700 mid -latitudes. At the same time, because we 00:11:58.700 --> 00:12:00.940 are transitioning into spring, the jet stream 00:12:00.940 --> 00:12:03.220 naturally begins its seasonal retreat northward. 00:12:03.340 --> 00:12:06.159 So the fence is moving north. And as that boundary 00:12:06.159 --> 00:12:08.379 line shifts higher up into the continent, it 00:12:08.379 --> 00:12:10.240 opens the floodgates for the southern half of 00:12:10.240 --> 00:12:14.039 the United States. It allows that intense, unseasonable 00:12:14.039 --> 00:12:16.679 warmth from the southern latitudes and the tropics 00:12:16.679 --> 00:12:19.480 to just freely invade massive portions of the 00:12:19.480 --> 00:12:22.500 country unhindered. That is a major reason why 00:12:22.500 --> 00:12:24.720 we are seeing those 106 degree temperatures. 00:12:24.960 --> 00:12:27.000 Here's where it gets really interesting, though. 00:12:27.259 --> 00:12:29.019 Looking at the data you brought in, there is 00:12:29.019 --> 00:12:31.899 a massive wild card currently in play that could 00:12:31.899 --> 00:12:36.330 completely upend that lazy jet. stream. The meteorologists 00:12:36.330 --> 00:12:38.789 who compiled this research are heavily focused 00:12:38.789 --> 00:12:41.690 on an ongoing sudden stratospheric warming event. 00:12:41.889 --> 00:12:45.029 Yes, sudden stratospheric warming or an SSW. 00:12:45.169 --> 00:12:47.309 This is one of the most complex yet universally 00:12:47.309 --> 00:12:50.250 impactful phenomena in meteorology. To really 00:12:50.250 --> 00:12:53.389 grasp what an SSW is, we need to completely shift 00:12:53.389 --> 00:12:56.269 our perspective. We live, breathe, and experience 00:12:56.269 --> 00:12:57.830 all of our daily weather in the troposphere. 00:12:58.289 --> 00:13:00.629 That is the lowest layer of the Earth's atmosphere. 00:13:00.990 --> 00:13:03.509 But sitting directly above us is the stratosphere. 00:13:03.720 --> 00:13:05.840 And the research notes that during the winter, 00:13:06.299 --> 00:13:08.259 high over the North Pole, there is a feature 00:13:08.259 --> 00:13:10.820 up in the stratosphere called the polar vortex. 00:13:11.210 --> 00:13:13.149 I know that term gets thrown around a lot on 00:13:13.149 --> 00:13:16.450 the news. It does, often incorrectly. The true 00:13:16.450 --> 00:13:19.850 stratospheric polar vortex is a massive swirling 00:13:19.850 --> 00:13:22.789 ring of exceptionally cold air and incredibly 00:13:22.789 --> 00:13:25.990 strong winds rotating counterclockwise high above 00:13:25.990 --> 00:13:28.330 the Arctic. The best way to conceptualize it 00:13:28.330 --> 00:13:30.669 is to think of a spinning top. Like a toy top. 00:13:30.809 --> 00:13:32.870 Right. As long as that top is spinning fast, 00:13:33.009 --> 00:13:35.450 it stays tight, centered, and incredibly stable. 00:13:35.629 --> 00:13:38.909 A strong, fast -spinning polar vortex keeps all 00:13:38.909 --> 00:13:41.850 that freezing, brutal arctic air locked up tight 00:13:41.850 --> 00:13:44.289 right over the pole. But a sudden stratospheric 00:13:44.289 --> 00:13:46.809 warming event throws a wrench into that system. 00:13:46.990 --> 00:13:49.909 A massive wrench. During an SSW, the temperatures 00:13:49.909 --> 00:13:51.889 high up in the stratosphere can rapidly increase 00:13:51.889 --> 00:13:53.870 by tens of degrees in just a matter of days. 00:13:54.490 --> 00:13:57.190 It is a violent, sudden influx of heat. This 00:13:57.190 --> 00:14:00.210 sudden burst of thermal energy completely destabilizes 00:14:00.210 --> 00:14:02.429 our spinning top. So it starts to wobble. Exactly. 00:14:02.490 --> 00:14:05.500 It wobbles. The winds slow down. The polar vortex 00:14:05.500 --> 00:14:08.480 weakens, it stretches out of shape, and sometimes 00:14:08.480 --> 00:14:10.960 the core of it splits entirely into multiple, 00:14:11.480 --> 00:14:13.779 smaller vortices. I'm trying to picture the consequences 00:14:13.779 --> 00:14:16.179 of that. If the vortex weakens and stretches 00:14:16.179 --> 00:14:18.720 out, it can no longer hold that Arctic air in 00:14:18.720 --> 00:14:20.779 place, right? Under normal circumstances, that 00:14:20.779 --> 00:14:23.659 is exactly what happens. Meteorologists measure 00:14:23.659 --> 00:14:26.179 this stability using an index called the Arctic 00:14:26.179 --> 00:14:29.360 Oscillation, or the AO. When the polar vortex 00:14:29.360 --> 00:14:32.460 is strong and spinning fast, the AO is positive. 00:14:32.620 --> 00:14:34.720 and the cold air stays locked up north where 00:14:34.720 --> 00:14:38.039 it belongs. When an SSW event weakens the vortex, 00:14:38.580 --> 00:14:41.299 the AO typically flips to a negative phase. So 00:14:41.299 --> 00:14:43.500 a negative AO means the cold air is escaping. 00:14:44.000 --> 00:14:45.519 Think of it like a bowl filled with freezing 00:14:45.519 --> 00:14:48.139 water. If the bowl cracks or tips over, that 00:14:48.139 --> 00:14:50.399 frigid water spills out and plunges downward. 00:14:51.100 --> 00:14:53.460 A negative AO allows that brutal arctic air to 00:14:53.460 --> 00:14:55.840 spill out of the polar regions and plunge deep 00:14:55.840 --> 00:14:57.759 into the mid -latitudes, spilling down into the 00:14:57.759 --> 00:14:59.879 United States, across Europe, and into Asia. 00:15:00.059 --> 00:15:02.820 It usually signals a massive late season deep 00:15:02.820 --> 00:15:05.220 freeze. But I'm looking at the charts here and 00:15:05.220 --> 00:15:07.379 the research right now is showing something highly 00:15:07.379 --> 00:15:10.120 contradictory. Despite the fact that we are currently 00:15:10.120 --> 00:15:12.600 in the middle of a major sudden stratospheric 00:15:12.600 --> 00:15:16.139 warming event, the dynamical model guidance the 00:15:16.139 --> 00:15:19.399 supercomputer forecasts show a positive Arctic 00:15:19.399 --> 00:15:22.399 oscillation structure persistently hanging on. 00:15:22.580 --> 00:15:25.000 And that contradiction is causing massive friction 00:15:25.000 --> 00:15:27.139 within the meteorological community right now. 00:15:27.340 --> 00:15:30.450 It is a fascinating standoff. The dynamical models, 00:15:30.970 --> 00:15:33.070 these incredibly advanced supercomputers calculating 00:15:33.070 --> 00:15:36.190 billions of atmospheric physics equations, are 00:15:36.190 --> 00:15:38.529 insisting that despite the warming in the stratosphere, 00:15:39.049 --> 00:15:41.149 the cold air will manage to stay locked up north. 00:15:41.929 --> 00:15:44.490 They're predicting the AO stays positive. But 00:15:44.490 --> 00:15:47.789 history and the known physics of how an SSW operates 00:15:47.789 --> 00:15:51.340 say the exact opposite. Yes. The historical climatology 00:15:51.340 --> 00:15:53.299 suggests that the bottom should eventually fall 00:15:53.299 --> 00:15:56.120 out. History tells us that we should see a massive 00:15:56.120 --> 00:15:58.480 delayed blast of Arctic air crashing down into 00:15:58.480 --> 00:16:00.500 the troposphere. So you have the raw computer 00:16:00.500 --> 00:16:02.779 models and the historical climatology essentially 00:16:02.779 --> 00:16:05.000 in a bare -knuckle brawl. They are completely 00:16:05.000 --> 00:16:07.899 fighting each other. And this must create immense 00:16:07.899 --> 00:16:10.539 uncertainty for anyone trying to predict the 00:16:10.539 --> 00:16:13.620 weather as we look toward late March. Will that 00:16:13.620 --> 00:16:16.360 warm, lazy jet stream hold its ground and keep 00:16:16.360 --> 00:16:19.159 the country baking? Or will the delayed effects 00:16:19.159 --> 00:16:22.039 of that stratospheric warming finally crash through 00:16:22.039 --> 00:16:24.360 the atmosphere and deliver a devastating late 00:16:24.360 --> 00:16:27.240 season freeze? It is the ultimate meteorological 00:16:27.240 --> 00:16:30.139 cliffhanger. As of right now, the data simply 00:16:30.139 --> 00:16:32.139 reflects a massive question mark for the end 00:16:32.139 --> 00:16:34.009 of the month. While the late March temperatures 00:16:34.009 --> 00:16:36.509 remain a mystery we will just have to watch unfold, 00:16:36.990 --> 00:16:39.370 the immediate threats on the horizon are unfortunately 00:16:39.370 --> 00:16:42.690 very clear in this data. The research outlines 00:16:42.690 --> 00:16:46.169 a looming multi -day severe weather threat targeting 00:16:46.169 --> 00:16:49.990 millions of Americans. It spans a massive geographical 00:16:49.990 --> 00:16:52.610 area across the South, stretching from Texas 00:16:52.610 --> 00:16:55.090 all the way up through the Great Lakes and into 00:16:55.090 --> 00:16:57.450 the Ohio Valley. This is a scenario where we 00:16:57.450 --> 00:16:59.590 see the clash of these conflicting seasons turn 00:16:59.590 --> 00:17:02.419 violent. The ingredients coming together for 00:17:02.419 --> 00:17:05.240 this specific setup are classic, well -documented, 00:17:05.660 --> 00:17:07.680 and highly concerning for anyone in those regions. 00:17:08.140 --> 00:17:10.720 Let's break down those ingredients. We have all 00:17:10.720 --> 00:17:12.960 this heat in the south, cold air trapped in the 00:17:12.960 --> 00:17:16.000 west, and storms trying to move through. We talked 00:17:16.000 --> 00:17:18.880 earlier about the lazy jet stream. But as this 00:17:18.880 --> 00:17:21.299 new, powerful storm system begins to move inland 00:17:21.299 --> 00:17:24.160 from the Pacific, it changes the geometry of 00:17:24.160 --> 00:17:27.599 the atmosphere. We are seeing a pronounced, sharp, 00:17:27.819 --> 00:17:30.849 southward dip in the jet stream developing over 00:17:30.849 --> 00:17:33.690 the western U .S., perfectly paired with a massive 00:17:33.690 --> 00:17:37.690 northward bulge or ridge over the eastern U .S. 00:17:37.690 --> 00:17:40.690 The research refers to this as creating an atmospheric 00:17:40.690 --> 00:17:43.069 highway. What does that mean in practical terms? 00:17:43.549 --> 00:17:45.470 When you have a deep trough of low pressure in 00:17:45.470 --> 00:17:47.569 the west and a strong ridge of high pressure 00:17:47.569 --> 00:17:50.369 in the east, it creates a very steep, intense 00:17:50.369 --> 00:17:53.029 pressure gradient between the two. The atmosphere 00:17:53.029 --> 00:17:55.910 always wants to balance itself out, so air rushes 00:17:55.910 --> 00:17:58.880 from high pressure to low pressure. In this specific 00:17:58.880 --> 00:18:01.880 configuration, that rush of air forms a supercharged 00:18:01.880 --> 00:18:04.140 wind corridor, an atmospheric highway blowing 00:18:04.140 --> 00:18:06.079 straight from south to north. And what is sitting 00:18:06.079 --> 00:18:08.660 directly south of this highway? The Gulf of Mexico. 00:18:09.480 --> 00:18:11.579 That atmospheric highway acts like an industrial 00:18:11.579 --> 00:18:15.289 vacuum. It is actively forcefully pulling incredibly 00:18:15.289 --> 00:18:18.549 warm, deeply moist air directly out of the Gulf 00:18:18.549 --> 00:18:21.490 of Mexico and surging it northward across the 00:18:21.490 --> 00:18:24.089 southern plains and into the Midwest. I really 00:18:24.089 --> 00:18:26.670 want to emphasize this point. The moisture drawn 00:18:26.670 --> 00:18:29.730 from the Gulf of Mexico is the primary indispensable 00:18:29.730 --> 00:18:32.670 fuel source for almost all severe weather in 00:18:32.670 --> 00:18:35.490 the central and eastern United States. You cannot 00:18:35.490 --> 00:18:38.509 have explosive thunderstorms without that rich 00:18:38.509 --> 00:18:41.450 tropical moisture. So we have this massive river 00:18:41.450 --> 00:18:44.440 of of warm, wet air surging north, but it doesn't 00:18:44.440 --> 00:18:46.920 just sit there peacefully over Texas and Oklahoma. 00:18:47.079 --> 00:18:49.839 Far from it. That warm, unstable air from the 00:18:49.839 --> 00:18:52.720 Gulf of Mexico is on a collision course. Remember 00:18:52.720 --> 00:18:54.740 that deep dip in the jet stream over the west? 00:18:55.119 --> 00:18:58.880 That dip is driving colder, much drier air aggressively 00:18:58.880 --> 00:19:01.000 eastward. So you have two completely different 00:19:01.000 --> 00:19:03.599 air masses slamming into each other. It is an 00:19:03.599 --> 00:19:07.839 atmospheric train wreck. Cold, dry air is incredibly 00:19:07.839 --> 00:19:10.940 dense and heavy. Warm, moist air is light and 00:19:10.940 --> 00:19:14.460 buoyant. When that dense, heavy cold front slams 00:19:14.460 --> 00:19:17.119 into the warm, unstable air fed by the Gulf of 00:19:17.119 --> 00:19:19.859 Mexico, the cold air acts like a physical wedge. 00:19:20.740 --> 00:19:23.200 It forces the warm, moist air to violently and 00:19:23.200 --> 00:19:25.880 rapidly rise into the atmosphere. And that violent 00:19:25.880 --> 00:19:28.240 rising motion is what creates the severe storms. 00:19:28.660 --> 00:19:31.059 Looking at the data, it indicates a high probability 00:19:31.059 --> 00:19:34.279 for severe thunderstorms, large, damaging hail, 00:19:34.700 --> 00:19:37.059 and the potential for tornadoes across a massive 00:19:37.059 --> 00:19:39.539 swath of the country. It is a textbook severe 00:19:39.539 --> 00:19:42.420 weather setup. It's nature finding the most violent 00:19:42.420 --> 00:19:44.980 way possible to balance out the extreme temperature 00:19:44.980 --> 00:19:47.079 differences we discussed earlier. And sadly, 00:19:47.339 --> 00:19:49.119 this perfectly aligns with the climatology of 00:19:49.119 --> 00:19:51.359 March. I think we need to talk about that climatology 00:19:51.359 --> 00:19:53.420 because it might surprise some people. When I 00:19:53.420 --> 00:19:55.319 think of tornado season, my mind immediately 00:19:55.319 --> 00:19:57.640 goes to the movie Twister, to May or June out 00:19:57.640 --> 00:20:00.000 in the middle of Oklahoma or Kansas. But the 00:20:00.000 --> 00:20:02.240 data here highlights March as the true awakening 00:20:02.240 --> 00:20:04.680 of the season. That is a very common misconception. 00:20:04.990 --> 00:20:07.769 While May certainly produces a massive number 00:20:07.769 --> 00:20:12.109 of tornadoes, March is incredibly volatile. Historically, 00:20:12.349 --> 00:20:14.769 states situated further south, places like Texas, 00:20:14.970 --> 00:20:17.509 Alabama, and Mississippi, actually see their 00:20:17.509 --> 00:20:19.730 highest frequency of tornadoes during the month 00:20:19.730 --> 00:20:22.869 of March. Why is March so dangerous for the Deep 00:20:22.869 --> 00:20:25.539 South? It comes down to transition. March is 00:20:25.539 --> 00:20:28.099 the transition point from winter to spring, which 00:20:28.099 --> 00:20:30.380 means it provides the maximum possible temperature 00:20:30.380 --> 00:20:33.460 contrast. You still have powerful roaring winter 00:20:33.460 --> 00:20:36.319 jet streams dipping south, bringing intense wind 00:20:36.319 --> 00:20:39.099 energy. But simultaneously, the sun angle is 00:20:39.099 --> 00:20:41.420 getting higher, and you begin to introduce that 00:20:41.420 --> 00:20:44.059 potent summer -like heat and humidity creeping 00:20:44.059 --> 00:20:46.319 up from the Gulf of Mexico. The clash of the 00:20:46.319 --> 00:20:48.799 titans. Exactly. Furthermore, the wind shear 00:20:48.799 --> 00:20:51.549 in March is often incredibly strong. Wind shear 00:20:51.549 --> 00:20:53.609 is the changing of wind speed and direction as 00:20:53.609 --> 00:20:56.329 you go higher up in the atmosphere. That turning 00:20:56.329 --> 00:20:58.390 of the winds with height is what gives a thunderstorm 00:20:58.390 --> 00:21:01.069 the ability to rotate, and a rotating thunderstorm 00:21:01.069 --> 00:21:03.539 is what produces a tornado. The research notes 00:21:03.539 --> 00:21:05.940 from last year provide a very sobering reminder 00:21:05.940 --> 00:21:09.200 of what this month is capable of. The data references 00:21:09.200 --> 00:21:12.640 a devastating outbreak last year where 90 tornadoes 00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:15.299 tore across 13 different states in March. It 00:21:15.299 --> 00:21:18.500 is a critical reminder that the arrival of meteorological 00:21:18.500 --> 00:21:21.400 spring on March 1st is entirely synonymous with 00:21:21.400 --> 00:21:24.319 the start of severe weather season. The atmosphere 00:21:24.319 --> 00:21:26.980 is waking up. If you live in these areas, you 00:21:26.980 --> 00:21:29.740 cannot wait until May to prepare. You must have 00:21:29.740 --> 00:21:32.200 multiple ways to receive warnings and a solid 00:21:32.200 --> 00:21:34.799 plan in place right now. Moving beyond the threat 00:21:34.799 --> 00:21:37.339 of wind, hail, and tornadoes, we have to look 00:21:37.339 --> 00:21:39.480 at the immense contrast of water that is currently 00:21:39.480 --> 00:21:41.980 forecast. This really highlights the extremes 00:21:41.980 --> 00:21:44.640 of the current map. On one hand, we have a significant 00:21:44.640 --> 00:21:47.619 widespread flood threat. Multiple ensemble models, 00:21:47.819 --> 00:21:49.140 which are basically a collection of different 00:21:49.140 --> 00:21:51.359 computer forecasts run together to find a consensus, 00:21:51.819 --> 00:21:53.839 are projecting high probabilities of two to three 00:21:53.839 --> 00:21:55.680 and a half inches of rain across the Tennessee 00:21:55.680 --> 00:21:58.960 and Ohio valleys. To a casual observer, two to 00:21:58.960 --> 00:22:01.039 three inches of rain over a couple of days might 00:22:01.039 --> 00:22:03.759 just sound like a gloomy weekend. It might not 00:22:03.759 --> 00:22:06.480 sound like a catastrophic amount of water, but 00:22:06.480 --> 00:22:09.339 in meteorology, context is absolutely everything. 00:22:09.440 --> 00:22:10.940 You have to look at the ground it is falling 00:22:10.940 --> 00:22:13.640 on. The research brings up a metric used by the 00:22:13.640 --> 00:22:15.960 National Weather Service called flash flood guidance. 00:22:16.440 --> 00:22:18.880 How does that actually work? Flash flood guidance 00:22:18.880 --> 00:22:22.019 is a highly localized calculation. The National 00:22:22.019 --> 00:22:24.539 Weather Service looks at a specific county or 00:22:24.539 --> 00:22:27.660 even a specific river basin and calculates exactly 00:22:27.660 --> 00:22:29.779 how much rain needs to fall over a one hour, 00:22:29.859 --> 00:22:32.740 three hour, or six hour period to initiate flash 00:22:32.740 --> 00:22:35.339 flooding. It takes into account the current soil 00:22:35.339 --> 00:22:38.099 moisture, the topography, and the local drainage 00:22:38.099 --> 00:22:40.519 capacity. And the problem right now is the soil 00:22:40.519 --> 00:22:42.720 conditions in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. 00:22:43.160 --> 00:22:45.059 The data shows some of these areas have been 00:22:45.059 --> 00:22:47.880 unseasonably dry. When soil is deprived of moisture 00:22:47.880 --> 00:22:50.740 for an extended period, especially under an unseasonably 00:22:50.740 --> 00:22:53.839 warm sun, the surface bakes. It becomes hard, 00:22:54.019 --> 00:22:56.619 compacted, and incredibly resistant to absorbing 00:22:56.619 --> 00:22:58.640 water. The term in the notes is that the soil 00:22:58.640 --> 00:23:01.660 becomes almost hydrophobic. It actively repels 00:23:01.660 --> 00:23:04.819 the water. It does. It loses its porosity. So 00:23:04.819 --> 00:23:06.640 when you suddenly dump three inches of heavy 00:23:06.640 --> 00:23:09.920 rain onto baked, hard -packed earth, the water 00:23:09.920 --> 00:23:12.079 doesn't absorb into the ground like a sponge. 00:23:12.460 --> 00:23:15.079 It immediately pools and rushes over the surface. 00:23:15.500 --> 00:23:18.220 This leads to what hydrologists call excessive 00:23:18.220 --> 00:23:20.000 runoff. And that runoff has to go somewhere. 00:23:20.160 --> 00:23:22.559 It follows gravity. It rushes into street drains, 00:23:22.880 --> 00:23:25.339 small creeks and streams. Because none of the 00:23:25.339 --> 00:23:27.880 water is being held back by the soil, those drainage 00:23:27.880 --> 00:23:30.200 systems are completely overwhelmed in a matter 00:23:30.200 --> 00:23:33.700 of hours, leading to rapid, dangerous flash flooding 00:23:33.700 --> 00:23:36.740 in areas you might not expect. That is a massive 00:23:36.740 --> 00:23:39.339 threat for the Midwest and the South. But the 00:23:39.339 --> 00:23:41.420 research also notes that up in the Northeast, 00:23:41.740 --> 00:23:43.559 the flood threat isn't just coming from the rain 00:23:43.559 --> 00:23:46.140 falling from the sky. No, the Northeast faces 00:23:46.140 --> 00:23:49.440 a very unique compounding threat. We just discussed 00:23:49.440 --> 00:23:51.599 the historic blizzards currently burying the 00:23:51.599 --> 00:23:54.420 I -95 corridor. Those blizzards are leaving behind 00:23:54.420 --> 00:23:57.259 a massive, incredibly deep snowpack. But the 00:23:57.259 --> 00:23:59.319 atmospheric blocking pattern won't last forever. 00:23:59.529 --> 00:24:02.150 As anomalous spring warmth inevitably pushes 00:24:02.150 --> 00:24:04.730 into the northeast, accompanied by heavy spring 00:24:04.730 --> 00:24:07.309 rain, it threatens to rapidly melt that snow. 00:24:07.690 --> 00:24:10.970 So you have rain falling from the clouds, plus 00:24:10.970 --> 00:24:13.269 millions of gallons of water locked in the snow 00:24:13.269 --> 00:24:15.750 suddenly turning liquid at the exact same time. 00:24:15.910 --> 00:24:18.309 It is a double -barreled threat. When you combine 00:24:18.309 --> 00:24:21.250 heavy rain with a rapid temperature -driven snow 00:24:21.250 --> 00:24:24.250 melt, the sheer volume of water entering the 00:24:24.250 --> 00:24:27.829 river system simultaneously is immense. The rivers 00:24:27.829 --> 00:24:30.650 swell rapidly, break their banks, and can cause 00:24:30.650 --> 00:24:33.269 widespread catastrophic regional flooding. It 00:24:33.269 --> 00:24:35.630 is an overwhelming abundance of water threatening 00:24:35.630 --> 00:24:38.750 the eastern half of the country. But if you look 00:24:38.750 --> 00:24:41.309 just a little bit further south, down to Florida, 00:24:41.910 --> 00:24:44.990 the picture painted by the data is terrifyingly 00:24:44.990 --> 00:24:47.849 dry. The contrast in water distribution across 00:24:47.849 --> 00:24:50.559 the United States right now is stark. We're looking 00:24:50.559 --> 00:24:52.599 at massive flood threats in the valleys, yet 00:24:52.599 --> 00:24:55.019 the research clearly shows that 100 % of the 00:24:55.019 --> 00:24:57.220 state of Florida is currently classified as being 00:24:57.220 --> 00:24:59.839 in a drought every single county. And the data 00:24:59.839 --> 00:25:02.400 specifies this is not just a mild early season 00:25:02.400 --> 00:25:05.380 dry spell. 67 % of the state is classified as 00:25:05.380 --> 00:25:08.279 being in extreme drought. Extreme drought means 00:25:08.279 --> 00:25:11.140 major crop losses are occurring, fire risk is 00:25:11.140 --> 00:25:14.220 extreme, and widespread water shortages are likely. 00:25:14.569 --> 00:25:17.569 The vegetation across the state is incredibly 00:25:17.569 --> 00:25:19.849 stressed. And looking at the projected storm 00:25:19.849 --> 00:25:22.809 tracks for this massive multi -day severe weather 00:25:22.809 --> 00:25:25.769 threat we just discussed, the southeast might 00:25:25.769 --> 00:25:28.690 miss this rainfall entirely. That is the cruel 00:25:28.690 --> 00:25:31.470 irony of the current atmospheric setup. The very 00:25:31.470 --> 00:25:33.589 same high pressure ridge in the east that is 00:25:33.589 --> 00:25:36.250 acting like a wall pulling the storms northward 00:25:36.250 --> 00:25:38.769 up that atmospheric highway will likely keep 00:25:38.769 --> 00:25:41.329 Florida and much of the southeast entirely dry. 00:25:41.650 --> 00:25:43.650 The rain will essentially detour right around 00:25:43.650 --> 00:25:45.809 them. Which leaves them incredibly vulnerable. 00:25:46.069 --> 00:25:48.349 It drastically increases their spring wildfire 00:25:48.349 --> 00:25:51.559 risk. You have parched, dying vegetation, steadily 00:25:51.559 --> 00:25:54.099 rising spring temperatures, and absolutely no 00:25:54.099 --> 00:25:56.700 moisture relief in sight. If any dry lightning 00:25:56.700 --> 00:25:58.900 strikes occur, or if there is any human -clawed 00:25:58.900 --> 00:26:01.119 spark like a discarded cigarette or a poorly 00:26:01.119 --> 00:26:03.660 managed campfire, the environment is absolutely 00:26:03.660 --> 00:26:06.200 primed for rapid, uncontrollable fire spread. 00:26:06.440 --> 00:26:08.859 So what does this all mean when we zoom out? 00:26:09.150 --> 00:26:11.549 We have spent the first half of this deep dive 00:26:11.549 --> 00:26:14.390 looking at incredibly intense local disasters, 00:26:15.029 --> 00:26:18.369 106 degrees in Texas, atmospheric blocking over 00:26:18.369 --> 00:26:21.170 Greenland freezing Boston, hydrophobic soil in 00:26:21.170 --> 00:26:23.470 the Ohio Valley, and extreme drought in Florida. 00:26:23.880 --> 00:26:26.119 But the research insists that we look at the 00:26:26.119 --> 00:26:28.160 larger global drivers because the foundation 00:26:28.160 --> 00:26:30.420 beneath all of these local events is shifting. 00:26:30.839 --> 00:26:33.579 To truly understand the global atmospheric picture, 00:26:34.019 --> 00:26:36.079 we have to look far away from the United States. 00:26:36.460 --> 00:26:38.619 We have to look down at the equatorial Pacific 00:26:38.619 --> 00:26:41.599 Ocean. Specifically, we have to examine the transition 00:26:41.599 --> 00:26:44.339 of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or what 00:26:44.339 --> 00:26:46.799 meteorologists refer to as ENSO. Based on the 00:26:46.799 --> 00:26:48.640 data, we have been under the influence of La 00:26:48.640 --> 00:26:51.880 Niña since roughly December 2024. But the research 00:26:51.880 --> 00:26:54.299 notes that this particular La Niña has been relatively 00:26:54.299 --> 00:26:56.640 weak and fairly short -lived compared to historical 00:26:56.640 --> 00:26:59.019 averages. It has been underperforming, so to 00:26:59.019 --> 00:27:02.140 speak. And now, the data indicates it is officially 00:27:02.140 --> 00:27:05.259 fading away entirely. The latest projections 00:27:05.259 --> 00:27:07.859 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 00:27:08.119 --> 00:27:11.539 commonly referred to as NOAA, predict a 60 % 00:27:11.539 --> 00:27:14.220 chance of transitioning into ENSO -neutral conditions 00:27:14.220 --> 00:27:17.799 between February and April of 2026. So we are 00:27:17.799 --> 00:27:20.559 moving out of La Niña and into a neutral state, 00:27:20.779 --> 00:27:23.019 which often serves as a stepping stone toward 00:27:23.019 --> 00:27:26.039 El Niño. Before we talk about what neutral or 00:27:26.039 --> 00:27:28.480 El Niño means for the future of our weather patterns, 00:27:28.900 --> 00:27:30.799 let's touch on the history of these phenomena 00:27:30.799 --> 00:27:32.740 because I was reading the background information 00:27:32.740 --> 00:27:34.700 in the sources and the naming convention alone 00:27:34.700 --> 00:27:37.299 is fascinating. It is one of my favorite pieces 00:27:37.299 --> 00:27:40.000 of meteorological history. It really shows how 00:27:40.000 --> 00:27:42.559 local observations eventually unlocked global 00:27:42.559 --> 00:27:45.329 scientific understanding. The notes detail how, 00:27:45.329 --> 00:27:48.009 back in the 19th century, Peruvian and Ecuadorian 00:27:48.009 --> 00:27:50.690 fishermen noticed a strange pattern. Every few 00:27:50.690 --> 00:27:53.089 years, the ocean waters off their South American 00:27:53.089 --> 00:27:56.029 coasts would become unusually incredibly warm. 00:27:56.289 --> 00:27:59.210 And for fishermen who rely on cold, nutrient 00:27:59.210 --> 00:28:02.230 -rich water to sustain the local fish populations, 00:28:03.029 --> 00:28:06.349 this anomalous warm water was devastating. It 00:28:06.349 --> 00:28:08.349 would completely disrupt the marine ecosystem, 00:28:09.130 --> 00:28:11.869 starving the fish and effectively ruining their 00:28:11.869 --> 00:28:13.809 crucial anchovy catch for the season. season. 00:28:14.109 --> 00:28:16.470 Because this devastating warming trend typically 00:28:16.470 --> 00:28:19.190 peaked right around late December, the fishermen 00:28:19.190 --> 00:28:22.490 named the phenomenon El Niño, which translates 00:28:22.490 --> 00:28:25.650 from Spanish to the boy or specifically the Christ 00:28:25.650 --> 00:28:28.329 child in reference to Christmas. It was a local 00:28:28.329 --> 00:28:31.029 term for a local economic disaster. It was only 00:28:31.029 --> 00:28:33.670 much, much later as global climate science advanced 00:28:33.670 --> 00:28:35.769 and we began taking global temperature readings 00:28:35.769 --> 00:28:38.230 that meteorologists realized this wasn't just 00:28:38.230 --> 00:28:40.589 a localized fishing problem in South America. 00:28:40.930 --> 00:28:43.519 They discovered it was actually a massive fluctuation 00:28:43.519 --> 00:28:46.099 in ocean temperatures that drives weather patterns 00:28:46.099 --> 00:28:48.259 across the entire planet. Once they understood 00:28:48.259 --> 00:28:50.960 that, scientists coined the term La Niña, which 00:28:50.960 --> 00:28:53.359 means the girl to represent the exact opposite 00:28:53.359 --> 00:28:55.839 phase when those same equatorial Pacific waters 00:28:55.839 --> 00:28:58.359 become unusually cool. Let's discuss the global 00:28:58.359 --> 00:29:00.920 impacts of these phases, particularly La Niña 00:29:00.920 --> 00:29:02.859 since we are supposedly just coming out of one 00:29:02.859 --> 00:29:06.640 right now. La Niña fundamentally alters the global 00:29:06.640 --> 00:29:09.640 atmospheric circulation patterns. When the waters 00:29:09.640 --> 00:29:12.180 in the Eastern Pacific cool down, it alters where 00:29:12.180 --> 00:29:14.160 the massive thunderstorms form over the ocean. 00:29:15.000 --> 00:29:17.519 Typically, a La Ni Ni event pushes the warmest 00:29:17.519 --> 00:29:20.940 water westward toward Asia. This shift alters 00:29:20.940 --> 00:29:23.460 the jet streams globally, and typically brings 00:29:23.460 --> 00:29:26.160 significantly wetter, sometimes flood -inducing 00:29:26.160 --> 00:29:29.299 conditions to places like Australia, India, in 00:29:29.299 --> 00:29:31.359 Southeast Asia. And conversely, the data shows 00:29:31.359 --> 00:29:33.539 it leads to much drier conditions across parts 00:29:33.539 --> 00:29:36.059 of South America. Yes. And here in the United 00:29:36.059 --> 00:29:39.500 States, a La Nina winter often leads to a drier, 00:29:39.700 --> 00:29:41.740 warmer southern tier, which we certainly saw 00:29:41.740 --> 00:29:44.640 in Texas and Florida, and a wetter, colder northern 00:29:44.640 --> 00:29:46.819 tier. Though, as we've extensively discussed 00:29:46.819 --> 00:29:49.059 today with our broken weather map, the atmosphere 00:29:49.059 --> 00:29:51.339 doesn't always read the textbook. But there is 00:29:51.339 --> 00:29:53.700 a critical, almost alarming data point in the 00:29:53.700 --> 00:29:55.859 research regarding this past La Nina. La Nina 00:29:55.859 --> 00:29:58.740 is fundamentally a cooling of the ocean, which 00:29:58.740 --> 00:30:01.259 generally translates to a net cool effect on 00:30:01.259 --> 00:30:04.059 global average atmospheric temperatures. It acts 00:30:04.059 --> 00:30:06.019 like a giant natural air conditioner for the 00:30:06.019 --> 00:30:08.279 planet. Yet the data states that even with that 00:30:08.279 --> 00:30:10.900 vast expanse of cooler ocean water actively trying 00:30:10.900 --> 00:30:14.259 to chill the atmosphere, the year 2025 was still 00:30:14.259 --> 00:30:16.660 tied for the second or third hottest year on 00:30:16.660 --> 00:30:19.319 historical record globally. That is a profound 00:30:19.319 --> 00:30:22.059 statement about the underlying relentless warming 00:30:22.059 --> 00:30:25.099 trend of the entire climate system. Historically, 00:30:25.259 --> 00:30:28.140 a strong La Nina would guarantee a dip in global 00:30:28.140 --> 00:30:30.519 temperatures for the year. The fact that we just 00:30:30.519 --> 00:30:32.299 experienced one of the hottest years in human 00:30:32.299 --> 00:30:35.079 history during a La Nina phase means that the 00:30:35.079 --> 00:30:37.660 natural cooling cycle of the ocean is no longer 00:30:37.660 --> 00:30:40.039 powerful enough to mask the overall background 00:30:40.039 --> 00:30:42.599 warming of the planet. And tracking this background 00:30:42.599 --> 00:30:44.839 warming has actually forced scientists to update 00:30:44.839 --> 00:30:47.460 the very metrics they used to define El Nino 00:30:47.460 --> 00:30:50.980 and La Nina. NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:30:50.980 --> 00:30:53.500 Administration, has officially changed how they 00:30:53.500 --> 00:30:56.960 track ENSO. This represents a major necessary 00:30:56.960 --> 00:30:59.960 shift in scientific methodology. For decades, 00:31:00.299 --> 00:31:02.619 meteorologists relied on a metric called the 00:31:02.619 --> 00:31:06.339 Oceanic Nino Index, or the ONI. This old index 00:31:06.339 --> 00:31:08.259 worked by comparing the current three -month 00:31:08.259 --> 00:31:10.640 average sea surface temperature in a specific 00:31:10.640 --> 00:31:13.559 patch of the Pacific against a historical 30 00:31:13.559 --> 00:31:16.279 -year average for that exact same geographical 00:31:16.279 --> 00:31:19.440 area. But the research indicates a fatal flaw 00:31:19.440 --> 00:31:22.059 with that method in our current climate. The 00:31:22.059 --> 00:31:24.720 fatal flaw is shifting baselines. The entire 00:31:24.720 --> 00:31:26.700 world's oceans are warming, and they're warming 00:31:26.700 --> 00:31:29.130 rapidly. If you are trying to determine if a 00:31:29.130 --> 00:31:31.950 specific patch of the Pacific is anomalously 00:31:31.950 --> 00:31:34.329 warm today, but you are comparing it to an average 00:31:34.329 --> 00:31:37.329 from the 1990s or 2000s when the ocean was already 00:31:37.329 --> 00:31:39.289 artificially warming, you get a skewed result. 00:31:39.480 --> 00:31:41.640 It's like trying to measure if a pot of water 00:31:41.640 --> 00:31:43.940 on the stove is boiling by comparing it to how 00:31:43.940 --> 00:31:46.279 warm the water was 10 minutes ago, rather than 00:31:46.279 --> 00:31:48.400 comparing it to room temperature. The baseline 00:31:48.400 --> 00:31:50.740 is ruined. That is a great analogy. Comparing 00:31:50.740 --> 00:31:52.759 warm water to water that was already warming 00:31:52.759 --> 00:31:55.240 means you drastically underestimate the true 00:31:55.240 --> 00:31:57.980 severity of the anomaly. So what is the new metric 00:31:57.980 --> 00:32:00.640 that NOAA has adopted? NOAA has transitioned 00:32:00.640 --> 00:32:03.799 to using the Relative Oceanic Nino Index, or 00:32:03.799 --> 00:32:06.700 ORNI -I. Instead of looking backward at corrupted 00:32:06.700 --> 00:32:10.339 historical averages, RNi is a dynamic real -time 00:32:10.339 --> 00:32:12.619 measurement. It compares the temperature of the 00:32:12.619 --> 00:32:14.799 East Central Pacific to the temperature of the 00:32:14.799 --> 00:32:17.140 rest of the global tropics at this exact moment. 00:32:17.799 --> 00:32:20.140 So it measures how much warmer or cooler the 00:32:20.140 --> 00:32:22.940 El Nino region is relative to the entire tropical 00:32:22.940 --> 00:32:25.880 ocean today rather than decades ago. Precisely. 00:32:26.180 --> 00:32:28.099 It filters out the background global warming 00:32:28.099 --> 00:32:31.819 to isolate the actual ENSO signal. It is a much 00:32:31.819 --> 00:32:34.539 more responsive, accurate way to track the mechanics 00:32:34.539 --> 00:32:37.349 of the climate in a rapidly changing world. Speaking 00:32:37.349 --> 00:32:39.529 of a rapidly changing world, the research we 00:32:39.529 --> 00:32:41.710 were reviewing also briefly notes how broader 00:32:41.710 --> 00:32:43.730 environmental policies and governmental shifts 00:32:43.730 --> 00:32:46.430 impact the tracking, funding, and action regarding 00:32:46.430 --> 00:32:49.130 climate science. For instance, the data specifically 00:32:49.130 --> 00:32:51.569 mentions the EPA, the Environmental Protection 00:32:51.569 --> 00:32:54.190 Agency, revoking the endangerment finding regarding 00:32:54.190 --> 00:32:57.049 greenhouse gases. That is a crucial piece of 00:32:57.049 --> 00:32:59.910 the broader context. When we look at this objectively, 00:33:00.369 --> 00:33:02.789 entirely separate from any political ideology 00:33:02.789 --> 00:33:06.069 or partisan debate, the revocation of the EPA 00:33:06.160 --> 00:33:08.920 endangerment finding represents a fundamental 00:33:08.920 --> 00:33:11.619 structural shift in how environmental policy 00:33:11.619 --> 00:33:13.539 interacts with climate science at the national 00:33:13.539 --> 00:33:16.019 level. The research highlights that these regulatory 00:33:16.019 --> 00:33:19.089 changes have ripple effects. Absolutely. Policy 00:33:19.089 --> 00:33:21.809 dictates resources. Shifts of this magnitude 00:33:21.809 --> 00:33:24.349 can vastly complicate the landscape of climate 00:33:24.349 --> 00:33:26.970 science. They can affect how meteorological research 00:33:26.970 --> 00:33:29.710 is funded, how tracking mechanisms like new satellites 00:33:29.710 --> 00:33:32.349 are deployed, and how national response strategies 00:33:32.349 --> 00:33:34.690 for extreme weather are developed, regardless 00:33:34.690 --> 00:33:36.769 of what the raw meteorological data on the ground 00:33:36.769 --> 00:33:39.599 is screaming. It is a reminder that the science 00:33:39.599 --> 00:33:42.019 of meteorology does not exist in a vacuum. It 00:33:42.019 --> 00:33:44.000 exists within a framework of human governance. 00:33:44.319 --> 00:33:46.700 Our mission today is to stick to that data, and 00:33:46.700 --> 00:33:48.500 the data pointing toward the five -year horizon 00:33:48.500 --> 00:33:51.440 is stark. Moving into the final section of our 00:33:51.440 --> 00:33:54.039 roadmap, the World Meteorological Organization, 00:33:54.220 --> 00:33:57.440 the WMO, alongside the UK's Met Office, has released 00:33:57.440 --> 00:33:59.619 research that truly pushes the bounds of what 00:33:59.619 --> 00:34:02.059 we thought was possible. The statistics delivered 00:34:02.059 --> 00:34:05.220 in this WMO update are striking. and, quite frankly, 00:34:05.539 --> 00:34:08.739 sobering. They are predicting a 98 % chance that 00:34:08.739 --> 00:34:11.360 at least one of the next five years, specifically 00:34:11.360 --> 00:34:14.940 between 2023 and 2027, and the five -year period 00:34:14.940 --> 00:34:17.719 as a whole, will be the warmest on historical 00:34:17.719 --> 00:34:21.039 record. A 98 % certainty in a meteorological 00:34:21.039 --> 00:34:23.980 forecast of that duration seems practically unheard 00:34:23.980 --> 00:34:27.199 of. Forecasting the weather next week is difficult 00:34:27.199 --> 00:34:29.480 enough. It is incredibly rare to see that level 00:34:29.480 --> 00:34:32.320 of confidence in a long -range forecast. It speaks 00:34:32.320 --> 00:34:34.800 to the immense undeniable momentum that is built 00:34:34.800 --> 00:34:37.000 up inside the climate system. We are looking 00:34:37.000 --> 00:34:39.980 at a powerful compounding combination of factors. 00:34:40.320 --> 00:34:42.960 First, you have the steady, relentless accumulation 00:34:42.960 --> 00:34:45.420 of human -induced greenhouse gases trapping heat 00:34:45.420 --> 00:34:47.960 in the troposphere. That provides an ever -rising 00:34:47.960 --> 00:34:50.289 baseline of heat. And then you combine that with 00:34:50.289 --> 00:34:52.409 the ENSO transition we just discussed. Right. 00:34:52.590 --> 00:34:55.269 We combine that elevated baseline with the looming 00:34:55.269 --> 00:34:58.110 return of a warming El Nino event. If El Nino 00:34:58.110 --> 00:35:00.010 is the air conditioner, El Nino is the heater. 00:35:00.570 --> 00:35:03.510 El Nino naturally spikes global atmospheric temperatures. 00:35:03.989 --> 00:35:06.570 When you stack a powerful El Nino on top of the 00:35:06.570 --> 00:35:08.489 highest baseline temperatures in human history, 00:35:09.130 --> 00:35:11.829 you mathematically force the global average into 00:35:11.829 --> 00:35:14.380 completely uncharted territory. If we connect 00:35:14.380 --> 00:35:16.739 this to the bigger picture, the research inevitably 00:35:16.739 --> 00:35:19.400 brings up the Paris Agreement and the famous 00:35:19.400 --> 00:35:23.059 1 .5 degrees Celsius threshold. This is a number 00:35:23.059 --> 00:35:25.619 we see in the headlines constantly. It is, and 00:35:25.619 --> 00:35:27.980 this is a critical nuance that the WMO research 00:35:27.980 --> 00:35:30.639 goes out of its way to clarify. It is vital that 00:35:30.639 --> 00:35:33.179 we explain this carefully so as not to misrepresent 00:35:33.179 --> 00:35:36.800 the data. The WMO states there is a 66 % likelihood 00:35:36.800 --> 00:35:39.139 that the annual average global temperature will 00:35:39.139 --> 00:35:42.539 exceed 1 .5 degrees Celsius above pre -industrial 00:35:42.539 --> 00:35:45.329 levels for at least one year within this upcoming 00:35:45.329 --> 00:35:47.650 five -year window. When you hear that, it sounds 00:35:47.650 --> 00:35:49.650 like an admission of failure. It sounds like 00:35:49.650 --> 00:35:52.230 we have officially failed the core tenet of the 00:35:52.230 --> 00:35:54.409 Paris Agreement. It absolutely sounds like it 00:35:54.409 --> 00:35:57.030 to the layperson, but scientifically and legally, 00:35:57.369 --> 00:36:00.329 we have not. The Paris Agreement's 1 .5 -degree 00:36:00.329 --> 00:36:02.670 threshold does not apply to a single rogue year. 00:36:02.800 --> 00:36:06.639 It refers to long -term multi -decade climatological 00:36:06.639 --> 00:36:10.000 averages. Hitting or exceeding 1 .5 degrees for 00:36:10.000 --> 00:36:13.320 one single exceptionally hot El Nino year does 00:36:13.320 --> 00:36:15.300 not mean we have permanently breached the target 00:36:15.300 --> 00:36:17.480 or structurally failed the agreement. That is 00:36:17.480 --> 00:36:19.760 an important distinction. However, reading between 00:36:19.760 --> 00:36:22.559 the lines of the data. However, it is a massive 00:36:22.559 --> 00:36:25.139 blaring alarm bell for the planet. It proves 00:36:25.139 --> 00:36:27.199 that we are now actively brushing up against 00:36:27.199 --> 00:36:29.980 a thermal limit that, just a decade ago, was 00:36:29.980 --> 00:36:32.510 considered a distant worst -case scenario. It 00:36:32.510 --> 00:36:34.670 means that while the multi -decade average might 00:36:34.670 --> 00:36:37.389 not be there yet, we will be breaching that 1 00:36:37.389 --> 00:36:40.750 .5 degree level on a temporary basis with increasing 00:36:40.750 --> 00:36:42.969 compounding frequency in the years to come. And 00:36:42.969 --> 00:36:45.250 the research makes it very clear that these temperature 00:36:45.250 --> 00:36:47.170 breaches will not be felt equally across the 00:36:47.170 --> 00:36:50.309 globe. The data points out very specific disproportionate 00:36:50.309 --> 00:36:53.030 regional impacts that will alter global ecosystems. 00:36:53.650 --> 00:36:56.250 The Arctic is the most glaring, urgent example 00:36:56.250 --> 00:36:59.179 in the data. The research notes that Arctic warming 00:36:59.179 --> 00:37:01.800 is currently happening at three times the global 00:37:01.800 --> 00:37:04.400 average rate. Why is the Arctic warming so much 00:37:04.400 --> 00:37:07.380 faster than, say, the equator? It is primarily 00:37:07.380 --> 00:37:09.619 due to a devastating feedback loop involving 00:37:09.619 --> 00:37:12.539 the loss of reflective sea ice. Ice is white. 00:37:12.920 --> 00:37:15.260 It reflects solar radiation back into space. 00:37:15.860 --> 00:37:18.139 Ocean water is dark. It absorbs solar radiation. 00:37:18.639 --> 00:37:21.440 As the Arctic warms, the ice melts, exposing 00:37:21.440 --> 00:37:24.079 more dark water. That dark water absorbs more 00:37:24.079 --> 00:37:26.380 heat from the sun, which in turn melts more ice, 00:37:26.619 --> 00:37:29.820 which exposes more water. It is a runaway acceleration. 00:37:30.059 --> 00:37:32.559 The rainfall predictions outlined for this five 00:37:32.559 --> 00:37:35.039 -year window are equally disruptive to the global 00:37:35.039 --> 00:37:37.000 status quo. The shifting of global temperatures 00:37:37.000 --> 00:37:40.000 means the shifting of global precipitation. The 00:37:40.000 --> 00:37:42.239 WMO data suggests we will see significantly, 00:37:42.599 --> 00:37:44.619 proficently wetter conditions in regions like 00:37:44.619 --> 00:37:47.239 the Sahel, in Africa, Northern Europe, and Alaska. 00:37:47.420 --> 00:37:50.420 But simultaneously, the data forecasts drastically 00:37:50.420 --> 00:37:52.940 reduced rainfall over other crucial regions. 00:37:53.440 --> 00:37:56.900 Yes, we are looking at forecasts for severe prolonged 00:37:56.900 --> 00:37:59.880 droughts over the Amazon Basin and massive parts 00:37:59.880 --> 00:38:02.079 of Australia. I want to stress that these aren't 00:38:02.079 --> 00:38:04.179 just fascinating numbers on a meteorological 00:38:04.179 --> 00:38:07.320 chart. These represent massive destabilizing 00:38:07.320 --> 00:38:09.480 shifts in global agriculture, water security, 00:38:09.659 --> 00:38:12.119 and ecosystem survival for billions of people 00:38:12.119 --> 00:38:14.340 and animals. It's a lot to process, honestly. 00:38:14.519 --> 00:38:16.280 When you look at the totality of what we've discussed 00:38:16.280 --> 00:38:19.179 today, it's overwhelming. This raises an important 00:38:19.179 --> 00:38:22.250 question. one that goes far beyond the raw meteorological 00:38:22.250 --> 00:38:24.349 data, the temperature records, and the computer 00:38:24.349 --> 00:38:26.570 models we've discussed today. When you step back 00:38:26.570 --> 00:38:28.730 and look at the sheer scale of these massive 00:38:28.730 --> 00:38:31.710 atmospheric swings, from 106 -degree winter days 00:38:31.710 --> 00:38:34.750 in Texas to sudden, paralyzing blizzards in the 00:38:34.750 --> 00:38:37.429 northeast, from entrenched La Niñas that still 00:38:37.429 --> 00:38:39.969 somehow produce record heat to the looming threat 00:38:39.969 --> 00:38:42.409 of record -breaking El Niños pushing us past 00:38:42.409 --> 00:38:45.510 the 1 .5 -degree threshold, it becomes clear 00:38:45.510 --> 00:38:47.869 that the concept of normal weather is officially 00:38:47.869 --> 00:38:50.780 obsolete. The baseline has shifted entirely. 00:38:51.619 --> 00:38:53.139 The provocative question for you to consider 00:38:53.139 --> 00:38:56.460 as you digest this research is this. How do we 00:38:56.460 --> 00:38:58.659 as individuals, as local communities, and as 00:38:58.659 --> 00:39:01.900 a global society begin to design our lives, our 00:39:01.900 --> 00:39:04.059 infrastructure, and our daily routines around 00:39:04.059 --> 00:39:07.099 a baseline of constant, unpredictable atmospheric 00:39:07.099 --> 00:39:09.599 volatility? How do you build a resilient future 00:39:09.599 --> 00:39:12.159 when the sky above you outright refuses to follow 00:39:12.159 --> 00:39:14.369 the rules of the past? You've been listening 00:39:14.369 --> 00:39:16.969 to Meteorology Matters, created by meteorologist 00:39:16.969 --> 00:39:19.650 Rob Jones. Thanks for listening, and remember, 00:39:19.869 --> 00:39:21.070 meteorology always matters.