It is Wednesday, January 28th, 2026, and right
now we are watching a weather map that looks...
Well, it looks completely broken. It really does.
If you are in Florida or if you have family down
there, you are already feeling the leading edge
of this. But if you're just tuning in, you need
to understand that this isn't just a chilly couple
of days. We are witnessing an atmospheric setup
that is, I mean, it's historically significant.
We are talking about a cold snap shaping up to
be one of the most severe events the Sunshine
State has seen in roughly 15 years. We're looking
at comparisons to the massive Arctic outbreak
of December 2010. Statistical anomaly to put
it mildly usually when we look at Florida winters,
we see variability You know a day of cool air
then a rapid return to the 70s. This is This
is different. It feels different We are watching
a massive coherent Arctic air mass just spilling
south bringing potential record -breaking lows
long duration freezing temperatures and wind
chills that are frankly dangerous for a population
that isn't built for them. It's the kind of weather
where you walk outside and your brain takes a
second to register that you're actually in the
subtropics. But before we break down the physics
of why this is happening and why people are whispering
about snow in Tampa, we need to introduce ourselves
properly. Welcome to Meteorology Matters, the
podcast that dives deep into the science, chaos,
and stories behind the weather that shapes our
world. This show was created by meteorologist
Rob Jones. Now, let's get into today's episode
of Meteorology Matters. So usually when we sit
down to talk about Florida weather, the bingo
card is pretty standard. We're talking about,
you know, convective thunderstorms, maybe a tropical
cyclone. Humidity. Humidity levels that make
you feel like you're swimming in the air or heat
indices. But today the vocabulary has shifted
entirely. We're seeing terms like deepening low
pressure, arctic intrusion, and advection. And
gulf effect, which is a personal favorite of
mine. We are definitely going to get to the Gulf
effect because that is the headline grabber.
But I want to start with the architecture of
this event. What is actually happening in the
atmosphere to open the freezer door like this?
Because this feels more aggressive than a standard
cold front. It is much more aggressive. To understand
this, we have to look at the pressure systems
involved. Right now, we have a weak area of low
pressure that's sort of drifting across the Gulf
of Mexico. OK. Now, on its own, a weak low in
the Gulf isn't headline news, but meteorology
is all about context and timing. This low is
moving toward the Atlantic. And once it hits
the Atlantic, it hits the turbo button. Essentially,
yes. Late Friday into early Saturday. As that
system moves over the open Atlantic waters, it's
going to deepen rapidly. When we say deepen in
meteorology, we mean the central pressure is
going to drop like a rock. Let's pause on that
for a second, because I think pressure is one
of those terms we hear constantly, but maybe
don't fully visualize. When the pressure drops,
that means the storm is getting stronger, right?
Correct. Imagine the atmosphere is trying to
balance itself. You have high pressure areas
and low pressure areas. Air always flows from
high to low, trying to fill the void. OK. The
lower the pressure in the storm, the stronger
that vacuum effect. It creates a steeper gradient.
So it's like a drain. A massive atmospheric drain.
And because this low is intensifying so rapidly
off the East Coast, it acts like a giant pump.
The circulation around a low pressure system
in the northern hemisphere is counterclockwise.
Right. So on the backside of this storm, the
western side, is just ripping air down from the
north. And it's not pulling that nice balmy Caribbean
air we usually enjoy. Not at all. Because of
the trajectory, it is tapping into a source region
way up in the Canadian interior. It is pulling
a dry Arctic continental air mass straight down
the Florida peninsula. It's a direct shot. It's
a direct corridor. There are no mountains to
block it. And because the low is deepening so
intensely, the speed of that transport is high.
That explains the intensity. But the thing that
feels different about this forecast is the duration.
Usually, a cold front in Florida is a cameo appearance.
It shows up, you wear a jacket for one night,
maybe you cover the basil. And then it's gone.
And then by noon the next day, you're sweating
again. Exactly. That's the typical pattern. The
high pressure builds in, the wind shifts off
the ocean and you warm up. This is different.
This is a long duration event. Multiple nights.
We are looking at repeated cold mornings. We
aren't just talking about Saturday night. We
are talking about Saturday, Sunday, Monday, deep
freezes. And the driver of this duration is something
called cold air eviction. Advection. That is
a great word. It sounds like something from a
physics textbook. It is. In thermodynamics and
fluid dynamics, advection is the transport of
a substance or quantity by bulk motion. In weather,
cold air advection just means the wind is physically
transporting cold air molecules into a region.
It's not just that the sun went down and the
ground cooled off. It's that the wind is essentially
a conveyor belt, continuously dumping freezing
air from the north into the state. So even if
the sun is out, if that conveyor belt is running,
it's fighting against the warming. Precisely.
And that is why the daytime highs are going to
struggle so much. You have the sun trying to
heat the ground, but you have this relentless
north -northwest wind just replacing any warmed
air with new cold air. Now let's pivot to the
thing that has the internet losing its mind.
The S word. Ah, yes. Snow, in Florida. Specifically
around the Tampa Bay area. I feel like every
time the temperature drops below 40, someone
starts a rumor about snow. But this time, it's
actually in the forecast discussion from the
National Weather Service. It is. But we have
to be incredibly careful with how we frame this.
We need to avoid the hype train. Absolutely.
We are discussing a legitimate scientific possibility
for coastal areas like Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando,
and Citrus counties. But the mechanism is not
a blizzard. It's not a winter storm system like
you'd see in Boston. This is gulf effect snow.
OK, gulf effect. I assume this is the cousin
of lake effect snow. It is the exact same physics
just applied to a different body of water. Break
that down for us. How does lake effect, or in
this case, gulf effect work? It's all about the
temperature difference, the delta T as we call
it. You have this incredibly cold, dry Arctic
air mass that we just described. Right, the stuff
coming down from Canada. Yeah. It moves out over
the Gulf of Mexico. Now the Gulf of Mexico is
a massive reservoir of heat. Even in January,
the water temperature is significantly warmer
than the freezing air moving over it. So you
have a warm bath on the bottom and a freezer
on top. Exactly. And the atmosphere hates that
kind of imbalance. It wants to reach equilibrium.
The warm water heats the very bottom layer of
that cold air. Warm air is less dense, so it
wants to rise. Of course. It picks up moisture
from the Gulf and shoots upward rapidly into
the freezing layer above it. It's like steam
rising off a hot cup of coffee on a cold porch.
A perfect analogy. As that warm, moist air rises,
it hits the cold air and condenses into clouds.
If the air is cold enough through the entire
column, that precipitation forms as snow crystals.
This creates these narrow energetic bands of
clouds that stream off the water. So the Gulf
of Mexico, the thing that usually keeps Florida
warm and humid, is actually the engine creating
the snow in this scenario because the air above
it is so shockingly cold. Correct. But here is
the catch, and it's a big one. For this to impact
land, the wind direction has to be perfect. If
the wind is purely from the north, those snow
bands stay out over the open water. If the wind
has a bit of a westerly component, you can push
those bands onshore into places like Pinellas
or Pasco counties. Game of angles? It is geometry
and thermodynamics combined. The National Weather
Service is looking at a very narrow window of
opportunity here. We are talking about late Saturday
night around 11 p .m. through roughly 7 a .m.
Sunday morning. So if you sleep in on Sunday,
you miss it? Likely, yes. And we have to manage
expectations here. We are not talking about accumulation.
We are not talking about building snowmen in
St. Pete. Why not? I mean, if it's snowing, why
wouldn't it stick? The ground is simply too warm.
Floor to soil holds heat, the pavement, the rooftops,
the grass. They're all well above freezing. As
soon as a flake hits the ground, it will just
melt. So it's a look up, not down kind of event.
Exactly. The confidence in this forecast is low,
around a 20 % chance. But the fact that it is
non -zero is meteorologically fascinating. There
is another term that keeps popping up in the
technical discussions regarding this snow chance.
Wet bulb temperature. I feel like this is one
of those concepts that separates the casual weather
watcher from the deep diver. Why does the wet
bulb matter here? The wet bulb temperature is
critical in marginal snow events like this. It
helps explain how snet can fall, even if your
thermometer says it is 36 or 37 degrees Fahrenheit.
Which feels like magic. Water freezes at 32.
If the air is 37, it should be rain. You would
think so. But the key is that this Arctic air
mass is incredibly dry. It has very low humidity.
Okay. When air is dry, evaporation happens very
efficiently. And evaporation is a cooling process.
It takes energy heat from the environment to
turn liquid water into gas. Right. That's why
we sweat. The evaporation cools our skin. Exactly.
Now, apply that to a snowflake falling from a
cloud. It falls into a layer of air that is,
say, 37 degrees. But because the air is so dry,
water molecules on the surface of the snowflake
evaporate instantly. That evaporation cools the
air immediately surrounding the snowflake. So
the snowflake is creating its own personal air
conditioning unit as it falls. That's a brilliant
way to put it. It creates a micro envelope of
freezing air that insulates it. This allows the
snowflake to survive the trip to the ground without
melting, even if the ambient temperature is technically
above freezing. Wow. That's why we look at the
wetback. It accounts for that evaporative cooling
potential. That is fascinating. So the dryness
of the air is just as much of a weapon here as
the temperature itself. It is. But again, I cannot
stress this enough. Do not expect a winter wonderland.
The headlines might scream snow in Florida, but
the reality is likely a few flurries that melt
on impact. The danger in this event isn't the
snow. The danger is the cold. And that is the
perfect pivot point. Because while the snow is
a novelty, the temperature drop is a hazard.
Let's look at the statewide impacts. Florida
is a massive state. North Florida is somewhat
used to this. Tallahassee sees freezing temps
most winters. They're a bit more prepared. A
bit. But this cold air is pushing way south.
It is penetrating deep into the peninsula. We
are seeing hard freeze warnings expected for
north and central Florida. But when you look
at the guidance for south Florida, that's where
the rarity of this event becomes clear. How far
south? We are seeing forecasts for low temperatures
dropping into the 30s as far south as Miami -Dade
County. Miami in the 30s? That is not something
the infrastructure there is designed for. Not
at all. We have freeze warnings popping up for
glades in Henry counties. These are major agricultural
areas. But for the millions of people living
in the metro areas, the real story is going to
be the windchill. Windchill. It's the number
everyone quotes, but I think people sometimes
dismiss it as just how it feels. But it's a physical
reality, isn't it? It is absolutely a physical
quantity. It measures the rate of heat loss from
exposed skin. Your body is a heat engine. It
is constantly generating thermal energy. Right.
On a calm day, your body heats up a very thin
layer of air right next to your skin. That layer
acts like an invisible insulating blanket. It
keeps the cold at bay. Right. But when the wind
blows, it strips that warm layer away. That is
convection. The wind physically carries that
heat away faster than your body can replace it.
And that's the danger. The stronger the wind,
the faster the heat loss. So when we say the
wind chill is in the 20s, we are saying that
your body is losing heat at the same rate it
would if it were a calm day at 20 degrees. And
we are expecting wind chills in the 20s in South
Florida. Yes. Combined with that brisk north
wind we talked about earlier, and for a population
that doesn't own heavy coats, and for buildings
that often have single pane windows or, you know,
those jealousy windows that don't seal well,
that rate of heat loss is dangerous. And we have
to talk about the duration again. This isn't
just Saturday night. I've been reading that Sunday
night into Monday morning might actually be the
coldest point in terms of raw temperature. Why
is that? It comes down to the wind dying down
and the air drying out even further. By Sunday
night, that low pressure system has moved further
away. The pressure gradient relaxes, so the winds
calm down. OK, so less wind chill. Right. But
the air itself gets colder, because the air is
coming from the continent. It is bone dry. No
humidity blanket. Exactly. Water vapor is a greenhouse
gas. It traps heat radiated from the ground.
When you remove the humidity, The heat that the
ground absorbed during the day just radiates
straight out into space as soon as the sun goes
down. It's called radiational cooling. So you
need three things for that. Clear skies, calm
winds, and dry air. Put them together and the
bottom falls out of the thermometer. So Sunday
night is when we might see those record lows.
That is the window for the absolute lowest mercury
readings, yes. I think it's important to contextualize
this too. Florida isn't the only place suffering.
This is part of a massive national system. It
is. This is a continental scale event. The jet
stream, that river of high -speed air in the
upper atmosphere, has taken a massive dip south.
It's called a trough. It's like a big U -shape.
A huge U -shape that has dug out a massive portion
of the central and eastern United States. We're
seeing temperatures 30 degrees below average
across a huge swath of the country I saw some
numbers on the travel chaos over 17 ,000 commercial
flights cancelled recently It's a cascading failure
when you have major hubs in the Midwest and Northeast
impacted by winter storms and deicing delays
It just it ripples through a whole network Planes
aren't where they need to be cruise timeout.
It's a mess And historically, we are comparing
this to 2010. I remember that winter. It was
relentless. It was. The December 2010 event is
the benchmark for modern Florida cold snaps.
That was the year we had widespread agricultural
damage, massive fish kills because the water
got too cold. And the iguanas falling out of
trees. And the iguanas. Yeah. And significant
strain on the power grid. This 2026 event is
tracking very similarly in terms of the depth
of the cold air and the duration. So we've established
the what and the why. We have the deepening low,
the advection conveyor belt, the Gulf effect
mechanics, and the radiational cooling. But this
show is meteorology matters. It matters because
it affects us. We need to shift gears to the
how. How do we get through this? We need a survival
guide. And in the emergency management world,
we stick to the four P's. It's a simple mnemonic
device, but it covers the critical bases, people,
pets, pipes, and plants. Let's take these one
by one, starting with the most important, people.
It seems obvious, but hypothermia is a real risk,
even in Florida. Maybe especially in Florida,
because people underestimate it. We need to distinguish
between frostbite and hypothermia. They're not
the same thing. Break those down. What are the
symptoms? Frostbite is a localized injury. It's
when the tissue itself freezes. It happens to
the extremities. First, fingers, toes, earlobes,
the tip of the nose. Your body restricts blood
flow to these areas to keep the core warm. So
what should we look for? The skin turns pale,
white, or waxy. And crucially, you might lose
feeling. If your fingers go numb, that is a big
warning sign. What do you do? If you suspect
frostbite, warm the area slowly. Do not use hot
water. The sudden temperature change can damage
the tissue further, use warm water, or just body
heat. Okay. And hypothermia? Hypothermia is systemic.
It's when your core body temperature drops below
95 degrees. This is life -threatening. The scary
part about hypothermia is that it affects the
brain. You get confused. You called it the umbels
earlier when we were chatting. Yes. The umbels,
stumbles, mumbles, fumbles, and grumbles. If
someone is shivering uncontrollably, slurring
their speech, stumbling around, or seems unreasonably
irritable or confused, they need immediate help.
They might not even realize they are cold. And
with the clothing layers, right, that's the go
-to advice. Layers are key. You want to trap
air. But let's be specific. Wool is better than
cotton. Cotton loses its insulating value when
it gets wet or damp. Wool retains heat. And here's
a fun fact. Mittens are warmer than gloves. I
never knew that until you mentioned it. Why is
that? It's about surface area. and shared heat.
In a glove, each finger is isolated and surrounded
by cold air. In a mitten, your fingers are all
touching each other, sharing their radiant heat
in a single air pocket. It's just much more efficient.
Now we have to talk about the silent killer,
carbon monoxide. Every time we have a hurricane
or freeze, we see fatalities from this. It is
tragic, and it is so preventable. Carbon monoxide,
or CO, is a gas you cannot see or smell. When
you breathe it in, it binds the hemoglobin in
your blood more aggressively than oxygen does.
It essentially suffocates your cells from the
inside out. And this happens because people are
trying to stay warm. Exactly. People bring charcoal
grills inside. They use camp stoves in the living
room. They run generators in the garage. The
rule is absolute. Never burn anything combustible
indoors without proper ventilation designed for
it. No grills, no generators, no using a gas
oven for heating. What about space heaters? I
feel like every garage in Florida is being rated
for a dusty space heater right now. Space heaters
are great, but they are a fire hazard. First,
check the cord. is afraid. Second, the three
-foot rule. Keep the heater at least three feet
away from anything that can burn, curtains, bedding,
furniture, and place it on a hard level surface.
Do not put it on a rug where it might tip over.
And turn it off when you sleep. Absolutely. Never
leave a space heater running while you are sleeping.
If a fire starts, you won't smell the smoke until
it's too late. Community is also a big part of
the people category. It is. Check on your elderly
neighbors. As we age, our bodies become less
efficient at regulating temperature, and we lose
that subcutaneous fat layer that insulates us.
A house at 60 degrees might feel fine to you,
but it could be dangerous for them. And the homeless
population. This weather is lethal if you are
exposed. Oh, it is. Warming shelters are opening
across the state central, Florida, Tampa, everywhere.
If you see someone in need, please share verified
shelter information. You can call 211 in most
areas to get a list of resources. Donate blankets,
coats. Donate blankets, donate coats. This is
the time to look out for each other. Okay, second
pee pets. This one is simple. If you're cold,
they're cold. Bring them inside. Florida pets
do not have winter coats. I don't care if it's
an outside dog. Tonight, it's an inside dog.
What about larger animals? For livestock horses,
cattle ensure they have a windbreak and check
their water. Water troughs can freeze over, and
dehydration is a major risk in winter too. Third,
pee pipes. This is the one that causes the most
homeowner anxiety. It does, and for good reason.
Water expands when it freezes. That is a unique
property of water. But the burst pipe usually
doesn't happen right where the ice is. Really?
Explain that. The ice forms a blockage. Then,
the water pressure between that ice blockage
and your closed faucet builds up immensely. We're
talking thousands of PSI. That pressure is what
bursts the pipe. So how do we stop it? First,
insulation. Wrap any exposed pipes, pool pumps,
sprinkler heads, the main line coming into the
house, pool noodles, foam covers, or even old
towels wrapped with duct tape work. You just
need a barrier against the cold air. And hoses.
I see people leave their hoses connected all
winter. Disconnect them. If water freezes in
the hose, it expands back into the spigot and
can crack the pipe inside the wall. That's a
huge expense of repair. Now the controversy.
To drip or not to drip? It is nuanced. The drip
rule is generally for when temperatures are going
to be sustained below freezing for a long time,
usually near or below 20 degrees. This is mostly
a concern for North Florida or the Panhandle.
So if I'm in Sarasota, I probably don't need
to drip. Probably not. But if you are in the
hard free zone, Letting a faucet drip lukewarm
water helps in two ways. One, moving water takes
longer to freeze, but mainly it keeps the valve
open so that if ice does form, the pressure has
a way to escape, preventing the burst. And open
the cabinets. I've heard that one. Yes. Open
the cabinet doors under the kitchen and bathroom
sinks. Let the warm air from your house circulate
around the plumbing and keep your thermostat
steady. Don't drop the temp at night to save
a few bucks. You want that heat in the walls.
Final pea plants. This is where we see the saddest
sites the next morning. Black mushy leaves. It
is. Florida's full of tropical plants that just
hate the cold. Hibiscus, crotons, Guggenwellea,
citrus trees. What's the difference between frock
damage and freeze damage for a plant? Is there
one? There is. Frost is ice crystals on the surface.
It damages the leaves, causing that burn. A freeze
is when the water inside the plant cells freezes.
Oh, that sounds worse. It is. When that water
freezes, it expands and ruptures the cell walls.
It's like a million tiny water balloons popping
inside the plant. That kills the plant tissue.
So covering them is the defense. But you can't
just throw a tarp on it, right? No. Material
matters. Do not use plastic. Plastic conducts
cold. If plastic touches the leaves, it will
freeze them just as fast as the air. Use clothed
sheets, blankets, burlap, cloth traps, air, and
insulates. And the technique, how you put it
on, matters. You have to go all the way to the
ground. You aren't wrapping the tree like a lollipop.
You are building a tent. You want to trap the
heat that is radiating up from the soil. Use
rocks or bricks to pin the edges of the sheet
to the ground. You are creating a little microclimate
inside that tent. What about potted plants? Bring
them in if you can. If not, groove them together
against the wall of your house. They share warmth,
and the house radiates heat. It also protects
them from the wind, which dries them out. And
here's the big mistake I see people make. The
day after the freeze, they go out with the pruning
shears. Put the shears down. Do not prune immediately.
That dead brown foliage looks ugly, but it is
nature's insulation. It protects the living parts
of the plant deeper down from the next cold night.
So you wait? You wait until the spring flush
of growth, usually March, before you cut anything
back. That is crucial advice. Patience. Before
we wrap up, let's touch on cars quickly. Two
things. Batteries and tires. Batteries operate
on chemical reactions. Cold slows those reactions
down. If your battery is old, it might not have
enough juice to turn the engine over. And the
tires. That little light on the dashboard. Physics
again. The ideal gas law. As the temperature
drops, the volume of the air inside your tires
contracts. You will likely see the low tire pressure
light. Don't panic. You probably don't have a
flat. Just check it and top it off. That is a
comprehensive rundown. We've covered the why,
the deepening low, and the atmospheric pump.
We've covered the snow chances and the wet bulb
physics. And we've covered the how, the four
P's of survival. It really is about preparation,
not panic. This is a historic event, a one in
15 year cold snap. But if you take these steps,
You can mitigate the damage. And maybe? Just
maybe. If you're in Pasco County on Saturday
night, you might see a flake or two. Just don't
try to catch them on your tongue. They might
be gone before you get there. Fair enough. Well,
that brings us to the end of this deep dive.
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Rob Jones. Thanks for listening and remember
Meteorology Matters astrology always matters.