WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.419 It is Wednesday, January 28th, 2026, and right 00:00:04.419 --> 00:00:07.780 now we are watching a weather map that looks... 00:00:07.839 --> 00:00:09.900 Well, it looks completely broken. It really does. 00:00:10.060 --> 00:00:11.919 If you are in Florida or if you have family down 00:00:11.919 --> 00:00:14.279 there, you are already feeling the leading edge 00:00:14.279 --> 00:00:16.780 of this. But if you're just tuning in, you need 00:00:16.780 --> 00:00:18.699 to understand that this isn't just a chilly couple 00:00:18.699 --> 00:00:21.239 of days. We are witnessing an atmospheric setup 00:00:21.239 --> 00:00:24.019 that is, I mean, it's historically significant. 00:00:24.140 --> 00:00:26.920 We are talking about a cold snap shaping up to 00:00:26.920 --> 00:00:29.219 be one of the most severe events the Sunshine 00:00:29.219 --> 00:00:32.799 State has seen in roughly 15 years. We're looking 00:00:32.799 --> 00:00:35.560 at comparisons to the massive Arctic outbreak 00:00:35.560 --> 00:00:39.000 of December 2010. Statistical anomaly to put 00:00:39.000 --> 00:00:40.939 it mildly usually when we look at Florida winters, 00:00:40.960 --> 00:00:44.420 we see variability You know a day of cool air 00:00:44.420 --> 00:00:48.200 then a rapid return to the 70s. This is This 00:00:48.200 --> 00:00:50.079 is different. It feels different We are watching 00:00:50.079 --> 00:00:52.899 a massive coherent Arctic air mass just spilling 00:00:52.899 --> 00:00:55.820 south bringing potential record -breaking lows 00:00:55.820 --> 00:00:58.820 long duration freezing temperatures and wind 00:00:58.820 --> 00:01:02.030 chills that are frankly dangerous for a population 00:01:02.030 --> 00:01:03.950 that isn't built for them. It's the kind of weather 00:01:03.950 --> 00:01:06.230 where you walk outside and your brain takes a 00:01:06.230 --> 00:01:08.170 second to register that you're actually in the 00:01:08.170 --> 00:01:10.849 subtropics. But before we break down the physics 00:01:10.849 --> 00:01:12.989 of why this is happening and why people are whispering 00:01:12.989 --> 00:01:16.290 about snow in Tampa, we need to introduce ourselves 00:01:16.290 --> 00:01:19.129 properly. Welcome to Meteorology Matters, the 00:01:19.129 --> 00:01:21.969 podcast that dives deep into the science, chaos, 00:01:22.109 --> 00:01:24.109 and stories behind the weather that shapes our 00:01:24.109 --> 00:01:26.730 world. This show was created by meteorologist 00:01:26.730 --> 00:01:30.439 Rob Jones. Now, let's get into today's episode 00:01:30.439 --> 00:01:33.579 of Meteorology Matters. So usually when we sit 00:01:33.579 --> 00:01:35.900 down to talk about Florida weather, the bingo 00:01:35.900 --> 00:01:37.879 card is pretty standard. We're talking about, 00:01:37.879 --> 00:01:40.500 you know, convective thunderstorms, maybe a tropical 00:01:40.500 --> 00:01:42.939 cyclone. Humidity. Humidity levels that make 00:01:42.939 --> 00:01:45.040 you feel like you're swimming in the air or heat 00:01:45.040 --> 00:01:47.680 indices. But today the vocabulary has shifted 00:01:47.680 --> 00:01:50.159 entirely. We're seeing terms like deepening low 00:01:50.159 --> 00:01:55.180 pressure, arctic intrusion, and advection. And 00:01:55.180 --> 00:01:57.319 gulf effect, which is a personal favorite of 00:01:57.319 --> 00:01:59.569 mine. We are definitely going to get to the Gulf 00:01:59.569 --> 00:02:01.670 effect because that is the headline grabber. 00:02:01.790 --> 00:02:04.709 But I want to start with the architecture of 00:02:04.709 --> 00:02:06.709 this event. What is actually happening in the 00:02:06.709 --> 00:02:08.629 atmosphere to open the freezer door like this? 00:02:08.870 --> 00:02:11.229 Because this feels more aggressive than a standard 00:02:11.229 --> 00:02:14.389 cold front. It is much more aggressive. To understand 00:02:14.389 --> 00:02:15.969 this, we have to look at the pressure systems 00:02:15.969 --> 00:02:19.650 involved. Right now, we have a weak area of low 00:02:19.650 --> 00:02:22.110 pressure that's sort of drifting across the Gulf 00:02:22.110 --> 00:02:25.689 of Mexico. OK. Now, on its own, a weak low in 00:02:25.689 --> 00:02:29.180 the Gulf isn't headline news, but meteorology 00:02:29.180 --> 00:02:32.960 is all about context and timing. This low is 00:02:32.960 --> 00:02:34.900 moving toward the Atlantic. And once it hits 00:02:34.900 --> 00:02:37.259 the Atlantic, it hits the turbo button. Essentially, 00:02:37.479 --> 00:02:40.500 yes. Late Friday into early Saturday. As that 00:02:40.500 --> 00:02:43.360 system moves over the open Atlantic waters, it's 00:02:43.360 --> 00:02:45.919 going to deepen rapidly. When we say deepen in 00:02:45.919 --> 00:02:48.360 meteorology, we mean the central pressure is 00:02:48.360 --> 00:02:50.379 going to drop like a rock. Let's pause on that 00:02:50.379 --> 00:02:52.259 for a second, because I think pressure is one 00:02:52.259 --> 00:02:54.259 of those terms we hear constantly, but maybe 00:02:54.259 --> 00:02:56.699 don't fully visualize. When the pressure drops, 00:02:56.819 --> 00:02:58.719 that means the storm is getting stronger, right? 00:02:58.879 --> 00:03:01.419 Correct. Imagine the atmosphere is trying to 00:03:01.419 --> 00:03:03.659 balance itself. You have high pressure areas 00:03:03.659 --> 00:03:06.120 and low pressure areas. Air always flows from 00:03:06.120 --> 00:03:08.900 high to low, trying to fill the void. OK. The 00:03:08.900 --> 00:03:11.219 lower the pressure in the storm, the stronger 00:03:11.219 --> 00:03:14.360 that vacuum effect. It creates a steeper gradient. 00:03:14.479 --> 00:03:17.159 So it's like a drain. A massive atmospheric drain. 00:03:17.500 --> 00:03:20.400 And because this low is intensifying so rapidly 00:03:20.400 --> 00:03:22.939 off the East Coast, it acts like a giant pump. 00:03:23.460 --> 00:03:25.460 The circulation around a low pressure system 00:03:25.460 --> 00:03:28.060 in the northern hemisphere is counterclockwise. 00:03:28.159 --> 00:03:31.199 Right. So on the backside of this storm, the 00:03:31.199 --> 00:03:34.439 western side, is just ripping air down from the 00:03:34.439 --> 00:03:37.300 north. And it's not pulling that nice balmy Caribbean 00:03:37.300 --> 00:03:39.960 air we usually enjoy. Not at all. Because of 00:03:39.960 --> 00:03:42.659 the trajectory, it is tapping into a source region 00:03:42.659 --> 00:03:45.659 way up in the Canadian interior. It is pulling 00:03:45.659 --> 00:03:49.180 a dry Arctic continental air mass straight down 00:03:49.180 --> 00:03:51.419 the Florida peninsula. It's a direct shot. It's 00:03:51.419 --> 00:03:53.550 a direct corridor. There are no mountains to 00:03:53.550 --> 00:03:55.949 block it. And because the low is deepening so 00:03:55.949 --> 00:03:57.909 intensely, the speed of that transport is high. 00:03:58.069 --> 00:04:00.949 That explains the intensity. But the thing that 00:04:00.949 --> 00:04:03.530 feels different about this forecast is the duration. 00:04:04.509 --> 00:04:07.530 Usually, a cold front in Florida is a cameo appearance. 00:04:07.909 --> 00:04:09.849 It shows up, you wear a jacket for one night, 00:04:09.930 --> 00:04:11.569 maybe you cover the basil. And then it's gone. 00:04:11.689 --> 00:04:13.930 And then by noon the next day, you're sweating 00:04:13.930 --> 00:04:16.269 again. Exactly. That's the typical pattern. The 00:04:16.269 --> 00:04:18.089 high pressure builds in, the wind shifts off 00:04:18.089 --> 00:04:19.709 the ocean and you warm up. This is different. 00:04:19.769 --> 00:04:22.050 This is a long duration event. Multiple nights. 00:04:22.189 --> 00:04:24.769 We are looking at repeated cold mornings. We 00:04:24.769 --> 00:04:26.569 aren't just talking about Saturday night. We 00:04:26.569 --> 00:04:29.250 are talking about Saturday, Sunday, Monday, deep 00:04:29.250 --> 00:04:32.670 freezes. And the driver of this duration is something 00:04:32.670 --> 00:04:37.279 called cold air eviction. Advection. That is 00:04:37.279 --> 00:04:38.720 a great word. It sounds like something from a 00:04:38.720 --> 00:04:42.379 physics textbook. It is. In thermodynamics and 00:04:42.379 --> 00:04:45.220 fluid dynamics, advection is the transport of 00:04:45.220 --> 00:04:48.459 a substance or quantity by bulk motion. In weather, 00:04:48.740 --> 00:04:51.019 cold air advection just means the wind is physically 00:04:51.019 --> 00:04:54.060 transporting cold air molecules into a region. 00:04:54.500 --> 00:04:56.420 It's not just that the sun went down and the 00:04:56.420 --> 00:04:59.160 ground cooled off. It's that the wind is essentially 00:04:59.160 --> 00:05:01.680 a conveyor belt, continuously dumping freezing 00:05:01.680 --> 00:05:04.560 air from the north into the state. So even if 00:05:04.560 --> 00:05:06.699 the sun is out, if that conveyor belt is running, 00:05:06.980 --> 00:05:09.560 it's fighting against the warming. Precisely. 00:05:09.899 --> 00:05:12.620 And that is why the daytime highs are going to 00:05:12.620 --> 00:05:14.699 struggle so much. You have the sun trying to 00:05:14.699 --> 00:05:17.220 heat the ground, but you have this relentless 00:05:17.220 --> 00:05:21.019 north -northwest wind just replacing any warmed 00:05:21.019 --> 00:05:24.439 air with new cold air. Now let's pivot to the 00:05:24.439 --> 00:05:26.079 thing that has the internet losing its mind. 00:05:26.480 --> 00:05:30.100 The S word. Ah, yes. Snow, in Florida. Specifically 00:05:30.100 --> 00:05:32.339 around the Tampa Bay area. I feel like every 00:05:32.339 --> 00:05:34.439 time the temperature drops below 40, someone 00:05:34.439 --> 00:05:37.399 starts a rumor about snow. But this time, it's 00:05:37.399 --> 00:05:39.379 actually in the forecast discussion from the 00:05:39.379 --> 00:05:41.420 National Weather Service. It is. But we have 00:05:41.420 --> 00:05:43.459 to be incredibly careful with how we frame this. 00:05:43.899 --> 00:05:45.980 We need to avoid the hype train. Absolutely. 00:05:46.360 --> 00:05:48.899 We are discussing a legitimate scientific possibility 00:05:48.899 --> 00:05:52.639 for coastal areas like Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, 00:05:52.920 --> 00:05:55.939 and Citrus counties. But the mechanism is not 00:05:55.939 --> 00:05:58.459 a blizzard. It's not a winter storm system like 00:05:58.459 --> 00:06:01.360 you'd see in Boston. This is gulf effect snow. 00:06:01.819 --> 00:06:05.300 OK, gulf effect. I assume this is the cousin 00:06:05.300 --> 00:06:07.920 of lake effect snow. It is the exact same physics 00:06:07.920 --> 00:06:10.399 just applied to a different body of water. Break 00:06:10.399 --> 00:06:12.439 that down for us. How does lake effect, or in 00:06:12.439 --> 00:06:15.060 this case, gulf effect work? It's all about the 00:06:15.060 --> 00:06:17.360 temperature difference, the delta T as we call 00:06:17.360 --> 00:06:20.689 it. You have this incredibly cold, dry Arctic 00:06:20.689 --> 00:06:22.750 air mass that we just described. Right, the stuff 00:06:22.750 --> 00:06:25.250 coming down from Canada. Yeah. It moves out over 00:06:25.250 --> 00:06:27.810 the Gulf of Mexico. Now the Gulf of Mexico is 00:06:27.810 --> 00:06:30.970 a massive reservoir of heat. Even in January, 00:06:31.310 --> 00:06:33.529 the water temperature is significantly warmer 00:06:33.529 --> 00:06:35.730 than the freezing air moving over it. So you 00:06:35.730 --> 00:06:37.529 have a warm bath on the bottom and a freezer 00:06:37.529 --> 00:06:40.730 on top. Exactly. And the atmosphere hates that 00:06:40.730 --> 00:06:42.850 kind of imbalance. It wants to reach equilibrium. 00:06:43.980 --> 00:06:47.220 The warm water heats the very bottom layer of 00:06:47.220 --> 00:06:49.660 that cold air. Warm air is less dense, so it 00:06:49.660 --> 00:06:52.000 wants to rise. Of course. It picks up moisture 00:06:52.000 --> 00:06:54.660 from the Gulf and shoots upward rapidly into 00:06:54.660 --> 00:06:56.600 the freezing layer above it. It's like steam 00:06:56.600 --> 00:06:59.240 rising off a hot cup of coffee on a cold porch. 00:06:59.639 --> 00:07:03.879 A perfect analogy. As that warm, moist air rises, 00:07:04.639 --> 00:07:06.920 it hits the cold air and condenses into clouds. 00:07:07.160 --> 00:07:09.439 If the air is cold enough through the entire 00:07:09.439 --> 00:07:12.379 column, that precipitation forms as snow crystals. 00:07:13.060 --> 00:07:15.620 This creates these narrow energetic bands of 00:07:15.620 --> 00:07:17.899 clouds that stream off the water. So the Gulf 00:07:17.899 --> 00:07:20.199 of Mexico, the thing that usually keeps Florida 00:07:20.199 --> 00:07:22.740 warm and humid, is actually the engine creating 00:07:22.740 --> 00:07:24.699 the snow in this scenario because the air above 00:07:24.699 --> 00:07:28.060 it is so shockingly cold. Correct. But here is 00:07:28.060 --> 00:07:30.480 the catch, and it's a big one. For this to impact 00:07:30.480 --> 00:07:33.740 land, the wind direction has to be perfect. If 00:07:33.740 --> 00:07:35.879 the wind is purely from the north, those snow 00:07:35.879 --> 00:07:38.339 bands stay out over the open water. If the wind 00:07:38.339 --> 00:07:40.259 has a bit of a westerly component, you can push 00:07:40.259 --> 00:07:42.420 those bands onshore into places like Pinellas 00:07:42.420 --> 00:07:45.600 or Pasco counties. Game of angles? It is geometry 00:07:45.600 --> 00:07:48.240 and thermodynamics combined. The National Weather 00:07:48.240 --> 00:07:50.620 Service is looking at a very narrow window of 00:07:50.620 --> 00:07:53.180 opportunity here. We are talking about late Saturday 00:07:53.180 --> 00:07:56.680 night around 11 p .m. through roughly 7 a .m. 00:07:56.879 --> 00:07:58.759 Sunday morning. So if you sleep in on Sunday, 00:07:58.939 --> 00:08:02.240 you miss it? Likely, yes. And we have to manage 00:08:02.240 --> 00:08:04.980 expectations here. We are not talking about accumulation. 00:08:05.439 --> 00:08:07.319 We are not talking about building snowmen in 00:08:07.319 --> 00:08:09.699 St. Pete. Why not? I mean, if it's snowing, why 00:08:09.699 --> 00:08:11.879 wouldn't it stick? The ground is simply too warm. 00:08:12.279 --> 00:08:14.939 Floor to soil holds heat, the pavement, the rooftops, 00:08:15.019 --> 00:08:17.639 the grass. They're all well above freezing. As 00:08:17.639 --> 00:08:19.259 soon as a flake hits the ground, it will just 00:08:19.259 --> 00:08:21.980 melt. So it's a look up, not down kind of event. 00:08:22.240 --> 00:08:25.339 Exactly. The confidence in this forecast is low, 00:08:25.399 --> 00:08:28.120 around a 20 % chance. But the fact that it is 00:08:28.120 --> 00:08:31.250 non -zero is meteorologically fascinating. There 00:08:31.250 --> 00:08:33.129 is another term that keeps popping up in the 00:08:33.129 --> 00:08:35.269 technical discussions regarding this snow chance. 00:08:35.929 --> 00:08:38.610 Wet bulb temperature. I feel like this is one 00:08:38.610 --> 00:08:40.950 of those concepts that separates the casual weather 00:08:40.950 --> 00:08:43.309 watcher from the deep diver. Why does the wet 00:08:43.309 --> 00:08:46.269 bulb matter here? The wet bulb temperature is 00:08:46.269 --> 00:08:49.409 critical in marginal snow events like this. It 00:08:49.409 --> 00:08:51.950 helps explain how snet can fall, even if your 00:08:51.950 --> 00:08:54.350 thermometer says it is 36 or 37 degrees Fahrenheit. 00:08:54.509 --> 00:08:57.250 Which feels like magic. Water freezes at 32. 00:08:57.389 --> 00:09:00.190 If the air is 37, it should be rain. You would 00:09:00.190 --> 00:09:02.980 think so. But the key is that this Arctic air 00:09:02.980 --> 00:09:06.500 mass is incredibly dry. It has very low humidity. 00:09:07.000 --> 00:09:10.100 Okay. When air is dry, evaporation happens very 00:09:10.100 --> 00:09:12.840 efficiently. And evaporation is a cooling process. 00:09:13.120 --> 00:09:15.460 It takes energy heat from the environment to 00:09:15.460 --> 00:09:17.860 turn liquid water into gas. Right. That's why 00:09:17.860 --> 00:09:20.639 we sweat. The evaporation cools our skin. Exactly. 00:09:21.139 --> 00:09:23.519 Now, apply that to a snowflake falling from a 00:09:23.519 --> 00:09:26.379 cloud. It falls into a layer of air that is, 00:09:26.379 --> 00:09:30.039 say, 37 degrees. But because the air is so dry, 00:09:30.139 --> 00:09:33.120 water molecules on the surface of the snowflake 00:09:33.120 --> 00:09:36.460 evaporate instantly. That evaporation cools the 00:09:36.460 --> 00:09:38.559 air immediately surrounding the snowflake. So 00:09:38.559 --> 00:09:41.620 the snowflake is creating its own personal air 00:09:41.620 --> 00:09:43.679 conditioning unit as it falls. That's a brilliant 00:09:43.679 --> 00:09:45.940 way to put it. It creates a micro envelope of 00:09:45.940 --> 00:09:48.740 freezing air that insulates it. This allows the 00:09:48.740 --> 00:09:50.779 snowflake to survive the trip to the ground without 00:09:50.779 --> 00:09:53.559 melting, even if the ambient temperature is technically 00:09:53.559 --> 00:09:55.940 above freezing. Wow. That's why we look at the 00:09:55.940 --> 00:09:57.600 wetback. It accounts for that evaporative cooling 00:09:57.600 --> 00:10:00.320 potential. That is fascinating. So the dryness 00:10:00.320 --> 00:10:02.659 of the air is just as much of a weapon here as 00:10:02.659 --> 00:10:05.980 the temperature itself. It is. But again, I cannot 00:10:05.980 --> 00:10:09.679 stress this enough. Do not expect a winter wonderland. 00:10:10.539 --> 00:10:13.779 The headlines might scream snow in Florida, but 00:10:13.779 --> 00:10:16.120 the reality is likely a few flurries that melt 00:10:16.120 --> 00:10:19.840 on impact. The danger in this event isn't the 00:10:19.840 --> 00:10:23.200 snow. The danger is the cold. And that is the 00:10:23.200 --> 00:10:25.620 perfect pivot point. Because while the snow is 00:10:25.620 --> 00:10:28.240 a novelty, the temperature drop is a hazard. 00:10:28.799 --> 00:10:31.100 Let's look at the statewide impacts. Florida 00:10:31.100 --> 00:10:34.019 is a massive state. North Florida is somewhat 00:10:34.019 --> 00:10:36.860 used to this. Tallahassee sees freezing temps 00:10:36.860 --> 00:10:39.159 most winters. They're a bit more prepared. A 00:10:39.159 --> 00:10:41.840 bit. But this cold air is pushing way south. 00:10:41.879 --> 00:10:44.440 It is penetrating deep into the peninsula. We 00:10:44.440 --> 00:10:46.460 are seeing hard freeze warnings expected for 00:10:46.460 --> 00:10:48.759 north and central Florida. But when you look 00:10:48.759 --> 00:10:51.320 at the guidance for south Florida, that's where 00:10:51.320 --> 00:10:53.659 the rarity of this event becomes clear. How far 00:10:53.659 --> 00:10:56.019 south? We are seeing forecasts for low temperatures 00:10:56.019 --> 00:10:58.659 dropping into the 30s as far south as Miami -Dade 00:10:58.659 --> 00:11:01.000 County. Miami in the 30s? That is not something 00:11:01.000 --> 00:11:03.159 the infrastructure there is designed for. Not 00:11:03.159 --> 00:11:05.860 at all. We have freeze warnings popping up for 00:11:05.860 --> 00:11:08.519 glades in Henry counties. These are major agricultural 00:11:08.519 --> 00:11:10.960 areas. But for the millions of people living 00:11:10.960 --> 00:11:13.500 in the metro areas, the real story is going to 00:11:13.500 --> 00:11:15.879 be the windchill. Windchill. It's the number 00:11:15.879 --> 00:11:17.799 everyone quotes, but I think people sometimes 00:11:17.799 --> 00:11:21.940 dismiss it as just how it feels. But it's a physical 00:11:21.940 --> 00:11:24.059 reality, isn't it? It is absolutely a physical 00:11:24.059 --> 00:11:26.799 quantity. It measures the rate of heat loss from 00:11:26.799 --> 00:11:29.840 exposed skin. Your body is a heat engine. It 00:11:29.840 --> 00:11:32.120 is constantly generating thermal energy. Right. 00:11:32.419 --> 00:11:35.740 On a calm day, your body heats up a very thin 00:11:35.740 --> 00:11:39.379 layer of air right next to your skin. That layer 00:11:39.379 --> 00:11:42.419 acts like an invisible insulating blanket. It 00:11:42.419 --> 00:11:44.779 keeps the cold at bay. Right. But when the wind 00:11:44.779 --> 00:11:47.700 blows, it strips that warm layer away. That is 00:11:47.700 --> 00:11:50.480 convection. The wind physically carries that 00:11:50.480 --> 00:11:52.620 heat away faster than your body can replace it. 00:11:52.620 --> 00:11:54.519 And that's the danger. The stronger the wind, 00:11:54.600 --> 00:11:56.620 the faster the heat loss. So when we say the 00:11:56.620 --> 00:11:58.820 wind chill is in the 20s, we are saying that 00:11:58.820 --> 00:12:01.419 your body is losing heat at the same rate it 00:12:01.419 --> 00:12:03.620 would if it were a calm day at 20 degrees. And 00:12:03.620 --> 00:12:06.000 we are expecting wind chills in the 20s in South 00:12:06.000 --> 00:12:09.320 Florida. Yes. Combined with that brisk north 00:12:09.320 --> 00:12:12.039 wind we talked about earlier, and for a population 00:12:12.039 --> 00:12:14.580 that doesn't own heavy coats, and for buildings 00:12:14.580 --> 00:12:17.179 that often have single pane windows or, you know, 00:12:17.299 --> 00:12:19.299 those jealousy windows that don't seal well, 00:12:20.299 --> 00:12:23.299 that rate of heat loss is dangerous. And we have 00:12:23.299 --> 00:12:25.279 to talk about the duration again. This isn't 00:12:25.279 --> 00:12:27.379 just Saturday night. I've been reading that Sunday 00:12:27.379 --> 00:12:30.200 night into Monday morning might actually be the 00:12:30.200 --> 00:12:32.860 coldest point in terms of raw temperature. Why 00:12:32.860 --> 00:12:35.919 is that? It comes down to the wind dying down 00:12:35.919 --> 00:12:38.519 and the air drying out even further. By Sunday 00:12:38.519 --> 00:12:41.299 night, that low pressure system has moved further 00:12:41.299 --> 00:12:44.460 away. The pressure gradient relaxes, so the winds 00:12:44.460 --> 00:12:47.080 calm down. OK, so less wind chill. Right. But 00:12:47.080 --> 00:12:49.120 the air itself gets colder, because the air is 00:12:49.120 --> 00:12:51.200 coming from the continent. It is bone dry. No 00:12:51.200 --> 00:12:54.460 humidity blanket. Exactly. Water vapor is a greenhouse 00:12:54.460 --> 00:12:56.779 gas. It traps heat radiated from the ground. 00:12:57.320 --> 00:12:59.769 When you remove the humidity, The heat that the 00:12:59.769 --> 00:13:01.789 ground absorbed during the day just radiates 00:13:01.789 --> 00:13:03.590 straight out into space as soon as the sun goes 00:13:03.590 --> 00:13:05.850 down. It's called radiational cooling. So you 00:13:05.850 --> 00:13:08.690 need three things for that. Clear skies, calm 00:13:08.690 --> 00:13:11.570 winds, and dry air. Put them together and the 00:13:11.570 --> 00:13:13.610 bottom falls out of the thermometer. So Sunday 00:13:13.610 --> 00:13:15.409 night is when we might see those record lows. 00:13:15.590 --> 00:13:17.970 That is the window for the absolute lowest mercury 00:13:17.970 --> 00:13:20.320 readings, yes. I think it's important to contextualize 00:13:20.320 --> 00:13:22.940 this too. Florida isn't the only place suffering. 00:13:23.120 --> 00:13:25.539 This is part of a massive national system. It 00:13:25.539 --> 00:13:29.080 is. This is a continental scale event. The jet 00:13:29.080 --> 00:13:31.480 stream, that river of high -speed air in the 00:13:31.480 --> 00:13:34.279 upper atmosphere, has taken a massive dip south. 00:13:34.539 --> 00:13:37.000 It's called a trough. It's like a big U -shape. 00:13:37.179 --> 00:13:40.419 A huge U -shape that has dug out a massive portion 00:13:40.419 --> 00:13:43.500 of the central and eastern United States. We're 00:13:43.500 --> 00:13:45.799 seeing temperatures 30 degrees below average 00:13:45.799 --> 00:13:48.620 across a huge swath of the country I saw some 00:13:48.620 --> 00:13:52.440 numbers on the travel chaos over 17 ,000 commercial 00:13:52.440 --> 00:13:55.220 flights cancelled recently It's a cascading failure 00:13:55.220 --> 00:13:57.600 when you have major hubs in the Midwest and Northeast 00:13:57.600 --> 00:14:00.120 impacted by winter storms and deicing delays 00:14:00.120 --> 00:14:04.080 It just it ripples through a whole network Planes 00:14:04.080 --> 00:14:06.200 aren't where they need to be cruise timeout. 00:14:06.200 --> 00:14:09.320 It's a mess And historically, we are comparing 00:14:09.320 --> 00:14:12.500 this to 2010. I remember that winter. It was 00:14:12.500 --> 00:14:16.799 relentless. It was. The December 2010 event is 00:14:16.799 --> 00:14:19.159 the benchmark for modern Florida cold snaps. 00:14:19.740 --> 00:14:22.039 That was the year we had widespread agricultural 00:14:22.039 --> 00:14:24.580 damage, massive fish kills because the water 00:14:24.580 --> 00:14:26.620 got too cold. And the iguanas falling out of 00:14:26.620 --> 00:14:29.179 trees. And the iguanas. Yeah. And significant 00:14:29.179 --> 00:14:32.820 strain on the power grid. This 2026 event is 00:14:32.820 --> 00:14:34.919 tracking very similarly in terms of the depth 00:14:34.919 --> 00:14:38.080 of the cold air and the duration. So we've established 00:14:38.080 --> 00:14:40.360 the what and the why. We have the deepening low, 00:14:40.580 --> 00:14:42.440 the advection conveyor belt, the Gulf effect 00:14:42.440 --> 00:14:45.399 mechanics, and the radiational cooling. But this 00:14:45.399 --> 00:14:49.480 show is meteorology matters. It matters because 00:14:49.480 --> 00:14:53.039 it affects us. We need to shift gears to the 00:14:53.039 --> 00:14:55.960 how. How do we get through this? We need a survival 00:14:55.960 --> 00:14:58.389 guide. And in the emergency management world, 00:14:58.529 --> 00:15:01.210 we stick to the four P's. It's a simple mnemonic 00:15:01.210 --> 00:15:03.590 device, but it covers the critical bases, people, 00:15:03.870 --> 00:15:06.070 pets, pipes, and plants. Let's take these one 00:15:06.070 --> 00:15:08.090 by one, starting with the most important, people. 00:15:08.250 --> 00:15:11.090 It seems obvious, but hypothermia is a real risk, 00:15:11.250 --> 00:15:13.049 even in Florida. Maybe especially in Florida, 00:15:13.190 --> 00:15:15.350 because people underestimate it. We need to distinguish 00:15:15.350 --> 00:15:17.529 between frostbite and hypothermia. They're not 00:15:17.529 --> 00:15:19.769 the same thing. Break those down. What are the 00:15:19.769 --> 00:15:22.990 symptoms? Frostbite is a localized injury. It's 00:15:22.990 --> 00:15:25.710 when the tissue itself freezes. It happens to 00:15:25.710 --> 00:15:29.549 the extremities. First, fingers, toes, earlobes, 00:15:29.809 --> 00:15:32.450 the tip of the nose. Your body restricts blood 00:15:32.450 --> 00:15:35.350 flow to these areas to keep the core warm. So 00:15:35.350 --> 00:15:37.830 what should we look for? The skin turns pale, 00:15:37.990 --> 00:15:40.210 white, or waxy. And crucially, you might lose 00:15:40.210 --> 00:15:43.250 feeling. If your fingers go numb, that is a big 00:15:43.250 --> 00:15:45.269 warning sign. What do you do? If you suspect 00:15:45.269 --> 00:15:48.710 frostbite, warm the area slowly. Do not use hot 00:15:48.710 --> 00:15:51.179 water. The sudden temperature change can damage 00:15:51.179 --> 00:15:54.360 the tissue further, use warm water, or just body 00:15:54.360 --> 00:15:57.720 heat. Okay. And hypothermia? Hypothermia is systemic. 00:15:58.059 --> 00:16:00.299 It's when your core body temperature drops below 00:16:00.299 --> 00:16:03.460 95 degrees. This is life -threatening. The scary 00:16:03.460 --> 00:16:05.639 part about hypothermia is that it affects the 00:16:05.639 --> 00:16:08.120 brain. You get confused. You called it the umbels 00:16:08.120 --> 00:16:10.419 earlier when we were chatting. Yes. The umbels, 00:16:10.519 --> 00:16:12.659 stumbles, mumbles, fumbles, and grumbles. If 00:16:12.659 --> 00:16:15.259 someone is shivering uncontrollably, slurring 00:16:15.259 --> 00:16:18.460 their speech, stumbling around, or seems unreasonably 00:16:18.460 --> 00:16:21.019 irritable or confused, they need immediate help. 00:16:21.080 --> 00:16:23.100 They might not even realize they are cold. And 00:16:23.100 --> 00:16:25.000 with the clothing layers, right, that's the go 00:16:25.000 --> 00:16:27.659 -to advice. Layers are key. You want to trap 00:16:27.659 --> 00:16:31.600 air. But let's be specific. Wool is better than 00:16:31.600 --> 00:16:34.500 cotton. Cotton loses its insulating value when 00:16:34.500 --> 00:16:37.980 it gets wet or damp. Wool retains heat. And here's 00:16:37.980 --> 00:16:40.620 a fun fact. Mittens are warmer than gloves. I 00:16:40.620 --> 00:16:42.700 never knew that until you mentioned it. Why is 00:16:42.700 --> 00:16:45.740 that? It's about surface area. and shared heat. 00:16:46.440 --> 00:16:48.980 In a glove, each finger is isolated and surrounded 00:16:48.980 --> 00:16:52.059 by cold air. In a mitten, your fingers are all 00:16:52.059 --> 00:16:54.379 touching each other, sharing their radiant heat 00:16:54.379 --> 00:16:57.139 in a single air pocket. It's just much more efficient. 00:16:57.299 --> 00:16:58.940 Now we have to talk about the silent killer, 00:16:59.259 --> 00:17:01.399 carbon monoxide. Every time we have a hurricane 00:17:01.399 --> 00:17:04.140 or freeze, we see fatalities from this. It is 00:17:04.140 --> 00:17:06.660 tragic, and it is so preventable. Carbon monoxide, 00:17:07.019 --> 00:17:10.500 or CO, is a gas you cannot see or smell. When 00:17:10.500 --> 00:17:13.220 you breathe it in, it binds the hemoglobin in 00:17:13.220 --> 00:17:15.660 your blood more aggressively than oxygen does. 00:17:16.599 --> 00:17:18.460 It essentially suffocates your cells from the 00:17:18.460 --> 00:17:20.240 inside out. And this happens because people are 00:17:20.240 --> 00:17:22.900 trying to stay warm. Exactly. People bring charcoal 00:17:22.900 --> 00:17:25.240 grills inside. They use camp stoves in the living 00:17:25.240 --> 00:17:27.980 room. They run generators in the garage. The 00:17:27.980 --> 00:17:31.470 rule is absolute. Never burn anything combustible 00:17:31.470 --> 00:17:34.150 indoors without proper ventilation designed for 00:17:34.150 --> 00:17:37.730 it. No grills, no generators, no using a gas 00:17:37.730 --> 00:17:40.029 oven for heating. What about space heaters? I 00:17:40.029 --> 00:17:42.529 feel like every garage in Florida is being rated 00:17:42.529 --> 00:17:44.930 for a dusty space heater right now. Space heaters 00:17:44.930 --> 00:17:48.309 are great, but they are a fire hazard. First, 00:17:48.789 --> 00:17:52.019 check the cord. is afraid. Second, the three 00:17:52.019 --> 00:17:54.519 -foot rule. Keep the heater at least three feet 00:17:54.519 --> 00:17:57.279 away from anything that can burn, curtains, bedding, 00:17:57.400 --> 00:18:00.059 furniture, and place it on a hard level surface. 00:18:00.440 --> 00:18:02.460 Do not put it on a rug where it might tip over. 00:18:02.539 --> 00:18:04.680 And turn it off when you sleep. Absolutely. Never 00:18:04.680 --> 00:18:06.700 leave a space heater running while you are sleeping. 00:18:07.079 --> 00:18:09.079 If a fire starts, you won't smell the smoke until 00:18:09.079 --> 00:18:11.400 it's too late. Community is also a big part of 00:18:11.400 --> 00:18:14.019 the people category. It is. Check on your elderly 00:18:14.019 --> 00:18:16.970 neighbors. As we age, our bodies become less 00:18:16.970 --> 00:18:19.450 efficient at regulating temperature, and we lose 00:18:19.450 --> 00:18:22.130 that subcutaneous fat layer that insulates us. 00:18:22.750 --> 00:18:24.950 A house at 60 degrees might feel fine to you, 00:18:24.950 --> 00:18:27.430 but it could be dangerous for them. And the homeless 00:18:27.430 --> 00:18:30.450 population. This weather is lethal if you are 00:18:30.450 --> 00:18:32.930 exposed. Oh, it is. Warming shelters are opening 00:18:32.930 --> 00:18:35.769 across the state central, Florida, Tampa, everywhere. 00:18:36.509 --> 00:18:39.089 If you see someone in need, please share verified 00:18:39.089 --> 00:18:42.200 shelter information. You can call 211 in most 00:18:42.200 --> 00:18:44.819 areas to get a list of resources. Donate blankets, 00:18:45.180 --> 00:18:48.440 coats. Donate blankets, donate coats. This is 00:18:48.440 --> 00:18:50.500 the time to look out for each other. Okay, second 00:18:50.500 --> 00:18:53.000 pee pets. This one is simple. If you're cold, 00:18:53.500 --> 00:18:56.160 they're cold. Bring them inside. Florida pets 00:18:56.160 --> 00:18:58.000 do not have winter coats. I don't care if it's 00:18:58.000 --> 00:19:00.799 an outside dog. Tonight, it's an inside dog. 00:19:01.059 --> 00:19:03.359 What about larger animals? For livestock horses, 00:19:03.700 --> 00:19:05.440 cattle ensure they have a windbreak and check 00:19:05.440 --> 00:19:08.609 their water. Water troughs can freeze over, and 00:19:08.609 --> 00:19:11.250 dehydration is a major risk in winter too. Third, 00:19:11.349 --> 00:19:13.569 pee pipes. This is the one that causes the most 00:19:13.569 --> 00:19:16.170 homeowner anxiety. It does, and for good reason. 00:19:16.450 --> 00:19:18.849 Water expands when it freezes. That is a unique 00:19:18.849 --> 00:19:21.710 property of water. But the burst pipe usually 00:19:21.710 --> 00:19:23.849 doesn't happen right where the ice is. Really? 00:19:24.029 --> 00:19:27.089 Explain that. The ice forms a blockage. Then, 00:19:27.490 --> 00:19:29.609 the water pressure between that ice blockage 00:19:29.609 --> 00:19:32.799 and your closed faucet builds up immensely. We're 00:19:32.799 --> 00:19:36.220 talking thousands of PSI. That pressure is what 00:19:36.220 --> 00:19:39.119 bursts the pipe. So how do we stop it? First, 00:19:39.319 --> 00:19:42.619 insulation. Wrap any exposed pipes, pool pumps, 00:19:43.099 --> 00:19:45.079 sprinkler heads, the main line coming into the 00:19:45.079 --> 00:19:48.400 house, pool noodles, foam covers, or even old 00:19:48.400 --> 00:19:50.460 towels wrapped with duct tape work. You just 00:19:50.460 --> 00:19:52.579 need a barrier against the cold air. And hoses. 00:19:52.980 --> 00:19:54.900 I see people leave their hoses connected all 00:19:54.900 --> 00:19:57.490 winter. Disconnect them. If water freezes in 00:19:57.490 --> 00:20:00.210 the hose, it expands back into the spigot and 00:20:00.210 --> 00:20:02.190 can crack the pipe inside the wall. That's a 00:20:02.190 --> 00:20:04.730 huge expense of repair. Now the controversy. 00:20:05.809 --> 00:20:08.470 To drip or not to drip? It is nuanced. The drip 00:20:08.470 --> 00:20:10.410 rule is generally for when temperatures are going 00:20:10.410 --> 00:20:12.589 to be sustained below freezing for a long time, 00:20:12.730 --> 00:20:15.369 usually near or below 20 degrees. This is mostly 00:20:15.369 --> 00:20:17.309 a concern for North Florida or the Panhandle. 00:20:17.529 --> 00:20:19.230 So if I'm in Sarasota, I probably don't need 00:20:19.230 --> 00:20:22.210 to drip. Probably not. But if you are in the 00:20:22.210 --> 00:20:24.880 hard free zone, Letting a faucet drip lukewarm 00:20:24.880 --> 00:20:28.720 water helps in two ways. One, moving water takes 00:20:28.720 --> 00:20:31.460 longer to freeze, but mainly it keeps the valve 00:20:31.460 --> 00:20:34.279 open so that if ice does form, the pressure has 00:20:34.279 --> 00:20:36.980 a way to escape, preventing the burst. And open 00:20:36.980 --> 00:20:39.220 the cabinets. I've heard that one. Yes. Open 00:20:39.220 --> 00:20:41.440 the cabinet doors under the kitchen and bathroom 00:20:41.440 --> 00:20:44.160 sinks. Let the warm air from your house circulate 00:20:44.160 --> 00:20:46.200 around the plumbing and keep your thermostat 00:20:46.200 --> 00:20:48.900 steady. Don't drop the temp at night to save 00:20:48.900 --> 00:20:50.619 a few bucks. You want that heat in the walls. 00:20:50.859 --> 00:20:53.900 Final pea plants. This is where we see the saddest 00:20:53.900 --> 00:20:57.380 sites the next morning. Black mushy leaves. It 00:20:57.380 --> 00:21:00.200 is. Florida's full of tropical plants that just 00:21:00.200 --> 00:21:03.660 hate the cold. Hibiscus, crotons, Guggenwellea, 00:21:03.859 --> 00:21:06.119 citrus trees. What's the difference between frock 00:21:06.119 --> 00:21:08.299 damage and freeze damage for a plant? Is there 00:21:08.299 --> 00:21:11.670 one? There is. Frost is ice crystals on the surface. 00:21:12.029 --> 00:21:15.329 It damages the leaves, causing that burn. A freeze 00:21:15.329 --> 00:21:17.829 is when the water inside the plant cells freezes. 00:21:18.009 --> 00:21:20.250 Oh, that sounds worse. It is. When that water 00:21:20.250 --> 00:21:22.569 freezes, it expands and ruptures the cell walls. 00:21:22.829 --> 00:21:24.730 It's like a million tiny water balloons popping 00:21:24.730 --> 00:21:27.369 inside the plant. That kills the plant tissue. 00:21:27.710 --> 00:21:30.750 So covering them is the defense. But you can't 00:21:30.750 --> 00:21:32.589 just throw a tarp on it, right? No. Material 00:21:32.589 --> 00:21:35.500 matters. Do not use plastic. Plastic conducts 00:21:35.500 --> 00:21:38.079 cold. If plastic touches the leaves, it will 00:21:38.079 --> 00:21:41.119 freeze them just as fast as the air. Use clothed 00:21:41.119 --> 00:21:45.740 sheets, blankets, burlap, cloth traps, air, and 00:21:45.740 --> 00:21:48.400 insulates. And the technique, how you put it 00:21:48.400 --> 00:21:50.319 on, matters. You have to go all the way to the 00:21:50.319 --> 00:21:52.380 ground. You aren't wrapping the tree like a lollipop. 00:21:52.420 --> 00:21:54.799 You are building a tent. You want to trap the 00:21:54.799 --> 00:21:57.480 heat that is radiating up from the soil. Use 00:21:57.480 --> 00:21:59.720 rocks or bricks to pin the edges of the sheet 00:21:59.720 --> 00:22:02.740 to the ground. You are creating a little microclimate 00:22:02.740 --> 00:22:05.319 inside that tent. What about potted plants? Bring 00:22:05.319 --> 00:22:07.900 them in if you can. If not, groove them together 00:22:07.900 --> 00:22:10.119 against the wall of your house. They share warmth, 00:22:10.160 --> 00:22:12.380 and the house radiates heat. It also protects 00:22:12.380 --> 00:22:14.299 them from the wind, which dries them out. And 00:22:14.299 --> 00:22:16.319 here's the big mistake I see people make. The 00:22:16.319 --> 00:22:18.819 day after the freeze, they go out with the pruning 00:22:18.819 --> 00:22:22.359 shears. Put the shears down. Do not prune immediately. 00:22:23.440 --> 00:22:26.460 That dead brown foliage looks ugly, but it is 00:22:26.460 --> 00:22:29.000 nature's insulation. It protects the living parts 00:22:29.000 --> 00:22:31.400 of the plant deeper down from the next cold night. 00:22:31.440 --> 00:22:33.640 So you wait? You wait until the spring flush 00:22:33.640 --> 00:22:35.980 of growth, usually March, before you cut anything 00:22:35.980 --> 00:22:39.559 back. That is crucial advice. Patience. Before 00:22:39.559 --> 00:22:41.559 we wrap up, let's touch on cars quickly. Two 00:22:41.559 --> 00:22:44.539 things. Batteries and tires. Batteries operate 00:22:44.539 --> 00:22:48.140 on chemical reactions. Cold slows those reactions 00:22:48.140 --> 00:22:50.640 down. If your battery is old, it might not have 00:22:50.640 --> 00:22:52.559 enough juice to turn the engine over. And the 00:22:52.559 --> 00:22:55.000 tires. That little light on the dashboard. Physics 00:22:55.000 --> 00:22:58.579 again. The ideal gas law. As the temperature 00:22:58.579 --> 00:23:01.039 drops, the volume of the air inside your tires 00:23:01.039 --> 00:23:04.079 contracts. You will likely see the low tire pressure 00:23:04.079 --> 00:23:06.140 light. Don't panic. You probably don't have a 00:23:06.140 --> 00:23:09.369 flat. Just check it and top it off. That is a 00:23:09.369 --> 00:23:12.089 comprehensive rundown. We've covered the why, 00:23:12.369 --> 00:23:14.250 the deepening low, and the atmospheric pump. 00:23:14.390 --> 00:23:17.190 We've covered the snow chances and the wet bulb 00:23:17.190 --> 00:23:19.789 physics. And we've covered the how, the four 00:23:19.789 --> 00:23:22.190 P's of survival. It really is about preparation, 00:23:22.529 --> 00:23:26.190 not panic. This is a historic event, a one in 00:23:26.190 --> 00:23:28.849 15 year cold snap. But if you take these steps, 00:23:29.099 --> 00:23:31.819 You can mitigate the damage. And maybe? Just 00:23:31.819 --> 00:23:33.759 maybe. If you're in Pasco County on Saturday 00:23:33.759 --> 00:23:35.920 night, you might see a flake or two. Just don't 00:23:35.920 --> 00:23:37.579 try to catch them on your tongue. They might 00:23:37.579 --> 00:23:40.039 be gone before you get there. Fair enough. Well, 00:23:40.079 --> 00:23:42.140 that brings us to the end of this deep dive. 00:23:42.460 --> 00:23:44.420 If you found this breakdown helpful, please do 00:23:44.420 --> 00:23:47.240 us a favor. Subscribe, rate the podcast and leave 00:23:47.240 --> 00:23:49.319 a comment. It really helps more people find the 00:23:49.319 --> 00:23:51.460 show. You can also follow the conversation on 00:23:51.460 --> 00:23:54.420 social media, follow Meteorologist on Instagram, 00:23:54.740 --> 00:23:57.160 TV Meteorologist on TikTok and check out Rob 00:23:57.160 --> 00:23:59.480 Jones Hurricane on YouTube. We have a specific 00:23:59.480 --> 00:24:01.319 Meteorology Matters playlist there where you 00:24:01.319 --> 00:24:03.759 can find all our deep dives. You've been listening 00:24:03.759 --> 00:24:06.240 to Meteorology Matters created by meteorologist 00:24:06.240 --> 00:24:08.859 Rob Jones. Thanks for listening and remember 00:24:08.859 --> 00:24:10.700 Meteorology Matters astrology always matters.