Start your engines, folks, because we are not
just looking at a weather event today. Oh, no.
We are looking at a weather history event. If
you are listening to this, you are likely already
seeing the clouds thicken, or maybe, maybe the
snow is already flying past your window. Let's
move that fast. There is a massive system unfolding
right now, and we are going to get right into
the thick of it. Let's do it. Welcome to Meteorology
Matters, the podcast that dives deep into the
science, chaos, and stories behind the weather
that shapes our world. This show was created
by meteorologist Rob Jones. Now let's get into
today's episode of Meteorology Matters. It's
Friday, January 23, 2026. If you have glanced
at a weather map or even has looked out the window
in the last 12 hours, you know what's going on.
You can feel it. The situation in the United
States is intensifying rapidly. The map is basically
lighting up like a Christmas tree with warnings,
watches, advisories, everything. The whole gamut.
We are tracking a massive winter storm. Some
outlets are dubbing it Winter Storm Fern. And
others are using more colorful language. I've
seen nightmare thrown around. But whatever label
you slap on it, the reality is that it is impacting
over 200 million people. It really is a staggering
footprint. We aren't looking at a localized event
here at all. Not even close. We are talking about
a continuous system that stretches for 2 ,000
miles. It's impactful from the high deserts of
the southwest all the way up to the rocky coasts
of Maine. And I think that's what's so critical
to get across today. This isn't just a snow day
storm. No, this is a multi -hazard event. We
have heavy snow, crippling ice, and then life
-threatening cold. all wrapped into one volatile
package. It sounds like the trifecta of winter
misery. So our mission today is to unpack the
science behind this beast. I want to understand
why this is happening, how it got so big, and
honestly, why this isn't just your standard January
snowstorm. Because 200 million people is a lot
of people to be in the crosshairs at once. It's
definitely not standard. If you want the headline,
it's a textbook example of weather chaos. We
are witnessing a collision of an atmospheric
river with the polar vortex. It's a very complex
atmospheric dance. And the result is what we
are seeing on the radar right now. OK. Let's
slow down and unpack that. Because usually when
I hear atmospheric river, I'm thinking California
getting drenched. Right. West Coast event. And
when I hear polar vortex, I'm thinking of freezing
faces in Minnesota. Negative 50 wind chills.
Yeah. So how do these two distinct things conspire
to create a 2 ,000 mile storm? That's the fascinating
part. It's all about the ingredients coming together
at the exact right moment. So let's look at the
synoptic setup. That's the big picture view of
the atmosphere. The whole board. The whole board.
We have winter storm alerts stretching from Arizona
and New Mexico all the way to the I -95 corridor
in the Northeast. Which is just a massive slice
of real estate. It is, and it's driven by two
main engines. Ingredient number one is the icy
air. We have a piece of the polar vortex, that
large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding
the Earth's poles, that has dislodged. It broke
off. It's dipping deep, I mean, deep into the
continental United States. is providing the sub
-freezing temperatures necessary to support wintry
precipitation. That's the cold tank. That's the
freezer door being left wide open. Precisely.
That is the perfect analogy. But cold air alone
doesn't make a storm. It just makes it cold.
Right. You need the moisture. You need moisture.
And that is where ingredient number two comes
in. We have an active subtropical jet stream
that is acting like a conveyor belt. A fire hose.
It is. It's pumping deep moisture from the Pacific
Ocean and, crucially, The Gulf of Mexico. Ah,
the Gulf. It always seems to be the fuel source
for these big ones on the eastern side of the
Rockies. Always. It's the engine. And just a
quick note on geography, we never say Gulf of
America. It is always the Gulf of Mexico. Got
it. So that warm, moisture -rich air is just
surging northward. Now imagine that moisture
running head first into that Arctic air mass
we just talked about. The collision. Exactly.
You have a low pressure system developing in
the southwest, and its acting is the mixing bowl.
It grabs that gulf moisture and flings it right
over the top of the dense arctic air. So you
have warm moist air being forced to rise over
cold, dense air. And that is where thermodynamics
takes over. As that air rises, it cools, it condenses.
Because the surrounding atmosphere is freezing,
it crystallizes. It just explodes into storm
development. Wow. This clash of air masses is
creating what we call a baroclinic zone, basically
a battlefield between warm and cold that stretches
across the entire country. That is why the storm
is so incredibly wide. It's almost like a slow
moving freight train that just keeps adding cars
as it moves east. That's a great visual. So I
want to walk through the timeline of this train
because if you are listening to this on Friday
morning, the impacts are just getting started
in some places, but others are in the crosshairs
for later. Right, so Friday... Today, the focus
is really on the Rockies and the Plains. We are
seeing snow and wind free mix starting up in
places like Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle.
The first cars of the train? The first cars.
As we move into Saturday, the system expands
and intensifies. It pushes into the south, the
Midwest, and hits the Appalachians. So Saturday
is the day for massive travel disruption for
the whole middle of the country. Absolutely.
Total gridlock potential. And then by Sunday,
the freight train reaches the East Coast. It
impacts the I -95 corridor. You're looking at
Washington, D .C., Philadelphia, New York City,
Boston. The big population centers. Exactly.
And because this system is large and moving somewhat
slowly, the impacts linger. We are looking at
snow and wind continuing well into Monday for
the Northeast and New England. So it's a long
duration event. This is not a hit and run where
it snows for three hours and then leaves. No,
this is going to be with us for the entire weekend.
A marathon, not a sprint. Let's talk about the
white stuff. Because for a lot of people, the
headline here is the snow. We are seeing reports
of 10, 15, maybe even 20 inches of snow in some
bands. Some really impressive totals. But what
stood out to me in the data was the description
of the snow quality. Forecasters are using words
like efficient and fluffy. I think most people
assume snow is just snow. Why does the texture
matter so much to a meteorologist? This is where
it gets really interesting for the snow lovers
and really dangerous for the road crews. It all
comes down to something called snow -to -liquid
ratios. Okay, walk us through that math. So,
in a standard snowstorm, Think of a sloppy, wet
snow where the temperatures are hovering right
around freezing. The ratio is usually about 10
to 1. 10 to 1. Right. That means if you melted
10 inches of snow, you would get one inch of
liquid water. That's heavy, wet snow. The kind
that creates a slushy mess and gives you a heart
attack when you try to shovel it. Exactly. That
is heart attack snow. But this storm is different.
Remember that polar vortex connection we discussed?
The Arctic air. The air mass feeding this storm
is Arctic. It is incredibly cold. So when snowflakes
form in very, very cold temperatures, they tend
to be lighter and fluffier. They don't stick
together as much. They stack up with a lot of
air in between them. It's like a downed feather
pillow versus a wet sponge. That is a great analogy.
Because of this cold air, we're looking at ratios
much higher than 10 to 1. We might see 15 to
1 or even 20 to 1 in some of these spots. So
for the exact same amount of moisture in the
air, you get double the pile of snow on the ground.
That is the efficiency part. Even modest amounts
of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will translate
into huge snowfall totals on the ground. The
snow just piles up incredibly quickly. That sounds
deceptive. It is. You might look outside, see
it snowing moderately, and think, oh, it's not
too bad. And then an hour later, you have three
inches on the ground. That seems incredibly deceptive
for drivers. It is. And it catches road crews
off guard because it accumulates faster than
they can physically plow it. We're looking at
significant accumulation zones in the plains,
in Midwest Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois,
Indiana. All primed for that deep fluffy powder.
That's right. And looking further east, it seems
like the infamous snow drought on the East Coast
is finally about to break. And break in a big
way. It certainly seems that way. The I -95 drought
has been a topic of conversation for a long,
long time. I mean, New York City hasn't seen
a foot of snow from a single storm since 2021.
And Washington, D .C., I saw, hasn't seen a foot
in a decade. Ten years. Think about that. That
is wild. It is. But the models are fairly consistent
right now. Cities like D .C., Philadelphia, NYC,
and Boston are all staring down the barrel of
12 plus inches. For D .C. and Baltimore, This
could be the biggest event in a generation of
kids. I want to geek out for a second on why
the snow gets so fluffy. You mentioned the cold
air, but I saw a specific term in the research
notes. The dendritic growth zone. The DGZ. It
sounds like something from a sci -fi movie. What
is happening in that zone? The DGZ. This is one
of my favorite atmospheric concepts. It refers
to a specific layer in the atmosphere where the
temperature is between negative 12 degrees Celsius
and negative 18 degrees Celsius. That is a very
specific window. Why that range? It's all physics.
In that temperature range, water vapor deposits
directly onto ice nuclei to form large branching
snowflakes called stellar dendrites. Think of
the classic paper cutout snowflake you made in
kindergarten. The big six -sided intricate arms.
The pretty ones, exactly. The ones that look
perfect. Those large branching arms allow the
snowflakes to interlock and trap a ton of air.
That creates the fluff. Now in this storm, because
the cold air is so deep, the dendritic growth
zone is incredibly thick. So the snowflakes are
spending more time there. A long time. They're
falling through that perfect temperature range,
just growing larger and more complex. So by the
time they hit the ground, they are maximizing
that fluff factor. So we have a deep DGZ, high
ratios, and efficient piling. That is great for
skiers, maybe bad for commuters. Very bad for
commuters. But as much as we talk about snow,
there is a much more sinister side to this storm
that we need to address. There is. And frankly,
this is the part that concerns me the most. We
need to shift gears and talk about the ice, because
while snow is disruptive, ice is destructive.
And there is a very specific zone, a nightmare
scenario, really setting up across the South.
This is the part of the forecast that keeps meteorologists
up at night. We are identifying an ice corridor
that stretches from northern Texas through southern
Oklahoma and Arkansas and then continues east
into northern Mississippi and Tennessee and then
it bends up into the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
That is a huge swath of the country and frankly
an area that is not built for heavy ice. Not
at all. And the physics of an ice storm are very
different from a snowstorm. To get ice, specifically
freezing rain, you need a very specific and very
dangerous vertical temperature profile. We call
it the warm nose. The warm nose. Explain that
mechanism. How can it be snowing in the north
and raining ice in the south all from the same
storm? So imagine a slice of the atmosphere from
the ground up. At the surface, where we live,
the temperature is sub -freezing. It's cold.
28, 29, 30 degrees Fahrenheit. Below freezing.
But if you go up about 5 ,000 to 10 ,000 feet,
there is a layer of warm air that is above freezing,
pushing in from the south. That is the nose of
warm air punching into the cold. OK, so the precipitation
starts as snow way up high in the clouds. Right.
It falls as snow, but then it hits that warm
nose. and melts completely. It turns into rain.
It becomes liquid water. But then as it continues
falling, it exits that warm layer and re -enters
the cold layer near the surface. But it doesn't
have time to turn back into snow. No. There isn't
time. It becomes what we call supercooled liquid.
It stays liquid, even though it's below freezing.
That sounds unstable. Very. But the instant that
supercooled raindrop hits a power line, a tree
branch, or road surface that is below 32 degrees,
snap. It freezes instantly on contact. It creates
a glaze of clear ice. And that accretion builds
up fast. We're seeing forecasts of a quarter
inch to three quarters of an inch of ice accretion.
And to put that in perspective, a quarter inch
is usually the threshold for nuisance power outages.
A few branches down. Exactly. Once you get to
a half inch of ice, you are talking about hundreds
of pounds of extra weight added to a single span
of power line. It brings down the lines. It snaps
massive tree limbs like twigs. And three -quarters
of an inch? That is crippling. That is catastrophic
infrastructure damage that can take weeks to
repair. And there's a specific geographic setup
causing this in the East, right? The Carolinas
in Virginia seem to be in a particularly bad
spot because of the mountains. Yes. That is a
phenomenon called cold air damming, or CAD. We
hear that term a lot in the Mid -Atlantic. What
is the mechanism there? It's crucial here. We
have a very strong high -pressure system, about
1040 millibars, which is incredibly strong sitting
to the north. Pushing cold air south. It is funneling
dense, heavy cold air down the eastern side of
the Appalachian Mountains. And the mountains
act like a physical dam against the air. Exactly.
The cold air hits the mountains and gets trapped.
It can't go west, so it just pools there in the
Piedmont of North Carolina and Virginia. It forms
a wedge of freezing air at the surface that just
refuses to budge. So it's locked in place. Locked
in. So even if warm air tries to move in a loft,
that surface cold is not going anywhere. That
prolongs the freezing rain event significantly.
Places like Charlotte, Greensboro, and Richmond
could see hours upon hours of freezing rain because
of this damming effect. It sounds like a recipe
for widespread power outages. A terrible one.
And that leads us directly into the next danger.
Because usually when the power goes out, it's
bad. But when the power goes out and you are
facing the kind of temperatures coming behind
the storm, that becomes a life safety issue.
This is the one -two punch we are concerned about.
Punch one is the storm. The ice knocking out
the power, snapping the lines. And punch two
is the cold. Punch two is the Arctic air rushing
in immediately behind it. We are talking about
record -breaking cold, aren't we? We are. In
the upper Midwest North Dakota, Minnesota, we
are forecasting wind chills dipping to negative
55 degrees Fahrenheit. Minus 55. That is frostbite
in minutes on exposed skin. But even further
south, where the ice is hitting, temperatures
are going to plummet well below freezing and
stay there for days. So if you lose power in
Memphis or Little Rock or Charlotte, you aren't
just sitting in the dark. You are sitting in
a rapidly freezing house. Precisely. And recovery
becomes so much harder. Crews can't fix power
lines when the wind chills are dangerous or when
the roads are, well, skating rinks. And speaking
of skating rinks, we need to talk about the flash
freeze. Yes, the flash freeze. Yeah, explain
that sequence. As the cold front sweeps through,
Temperatures drop incredibly fast. So all that
slush rain or wet snow on the roads freezes solid.
It turns into concrete ice. And you can't treat
it. Well, here's the kicker. Roats, salt, sodium
chloride loses its effectiveness when it gets
too cold. Oh, really? Yeah. Once you get below
about 15 or 20 degrees Fahrenheit, salt stops
melting ice efficiently. So we could see roads
that are literally impossible to treat. They'll
be impassable. That is terrifying for drivers.
And you mentioned something earlier in our prep
that I thought was a myth, but apparently is
real. Exploding trees? It sounds like a tall
tale, doesn't it? But it is absolutely real.
In these extreme cold drops, like when you go
to daughters 20 degrees Fahrenheit rapidly, the
sap inside hardwood trees like maples and oaks
can freeze. And water expands when it freezes.
Right. And if it freezes and expands rapidly
enough, the pressure builds up inside the trunk
until POP. No way! The tree literally splits
or bursts. It sounds just like a gunshot going
off in the woods. It's a testament to just how
brutal this cold air mass is. That is wild. Nature
is so powerful. Let's talk about the human impact
of all this, because 200 million people impacted
means 200 million lives disrupted. We are already
seeing the travel chaos begin. It's cascading
quickly. Flight cancellations are already topping
1 ,200 for Friday and Saturday. Airlines are
issuing waivers across the board, which is a
sign they know planes aren't moving. And the
roads, I mean, I -10, I -20, I -35, I -40, I
-95. That is basically every major artery in
the eastern half of the country. Every single
one. And remember, even if the weather is fine
where you are, The ripple effect in the aviation
system is real. Crews get displaced. Planes get
stuck in Dallas or Chicago. You might be in Miami
with sunny skies, but your plane is frozen to
the tarmac in O 'Hare. The whole system grinds
to a halt. We are seeing a lot of governors declaring
state of emergencies. Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas,
Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas,
Virginia, Maryland. The list keeps growing. It
sounds scary, but what does that actually mean
operationally? Is it just tannic? No, it's important
not to see that as just panic. A state of emergency
is a procedural tool. It unlocks resources. It's
a switch they flip. It is. It allows the governor
to mobilize the National Guard to help with stranded
motorists or check on vulnerable people. It frees
up funding for pretreating roads. It waives certain
regulations for utility trucks crossing state
lines to help restore power. So it's about preparedness,
getting the assets in place before the ice hits.
Exactly. For example, in Texas, Governor Abbott
has been very vocal about ensuring that UCOC
grid is ready. They're trying to avoid a repeat
of past disasters. And I saw in NYC they are
recruiting emergency snow shovelers. It's all
hands on deck. Okay, let's pivot to the listener.
If you are in the path of this thing, which statistically
you probably are, what do you need to do right
now? We have compiled a Meteorology Matters checklist.
And the time for preparation is closing fast,
so action is needed now. First up, power. Assume
you will lose it. Charge everything, your phones,
your tablets, those portable power banks. If
you have rechargeable lanterns, juice them up.
And you had a pro tip for the fridge. Yes. Turn
your fridge and freezer to their coldest settings
right now. Why is that? It super cools the food.
If the power goes out, you keep the door closed
and that thermal mass stays cold longer, buying
you precious hours before food starts to spoil.
That is smart physics. Next on the list, water.
If you're on a municipal supply, you're probably
okay, but you should still drip your faucets.
Moving water doesn't freeze as easily, and that
can prevent your pipes from bursting and causing
a massive flood inside your house. And if you're
on a well? If you are on a well that needs an
electric pump, fill the bathtub. Fill every butcher
you have. You need water for flushing toilets
and hygiene if the... power. Yeah. And therefore
your pump fail. Next up, the car. Keep the tank
at least half full. Is that to prevent the gas
line from freezing? Partly, yes. But mostly it's
for warmth. If you get stranded, or if your house
loses heat and becomes uninhabitable, your car
becomes your lifeboat. A warming station. A warming
station. You can run the heater periodically
to warm up, but... And this is critical. Make
sure the exhaust pipe is clear of snow before
you do. And that leads to the biggest safety
warning we have. Carbon monoxide, the silent
killer. Every time we have a major ice storm
we see a spike in poisonings. It's so tragic
and preventable. It is. People get desperate
for heat or power. They run generators in the
garage or they try to use a gas grill indoors
for heat. Never do that. Never ever run a combustion
engine or grill inside or in an attached garage.
The fumes are odorless and they're deadly. Keep
the generator outside. away from windows excellent
advice and finally stay off the roads don't crowd
the plow is the saying but ideally don't even
be on the road to see the plow if you can stay
home please stay home it's the safest place to
be so to recap the situation we have winter storm
fern, or whatever you want to call it. It's a
historic system covering 2 ,000 miles, impacting
roughly 235 million people. It brings heavy,
efficient snow to the north, crippling ice to
the south, and is followed by a brutal, life
-threatening Arctic freeze. The weather is a
powerful force, and understanding the science
helps us prepare. But here is one final thought
to chew on we talked about the human factor in
meteorology We trust the models we trust the
radar But in an event this complex with ice lines
shifting by five miles making the difference
between rain and ruin The human intuition of
local forecasters is still the most valuable
tool we have Oh absolutely The models give us
the data, but the people give us the context.
It is so true. The nuance is everything. You
can't get that from a computer model alone. If
you want to stay ahead of the weather and get
that nuance, make sure to follow meteorologist
Rob Jones. Absolutely. He's fantastic. You can
find him on Instagram at Meteorologist Simple
and Easy. On TikTok, look for TV Meteorologist.
And on YouTube, search for Rob Jones Hurricane.
You can find the entire Meteorology Matters podcast
playlist there as well. And please, if you found
this conversation helpful today, like, follow,
comment, and rate the podcast. It really helps
us get this vital information to more people.
It really does. It makes a huge difference. You've
been listening to Meteorology Matters, created
by meteorologist Rob Jones. Stay safe out there.
Stay warm. And please keep an eye on the sky.
Thanks for listening. And remember, meteorology
always matters.