WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.140 Start your engines, folks, because we are not 00:00:03.140 --> 00:00:05.900 just looking at a weather event today. Oh, no. 00:00:05.980 --> 00:00:08.279 We are looking at a weather history event. If 00:00:08.279 --> 00:00:10.640 you are listening to this, you are likely already 00:00:10.640 --> 00:00:14.820 seeing the clouds thicken, or maybe, maybe the 00:00:14.820 --> 00:00:16.780 snow is already flying past your window. Let's 00:00:16.780 --> 00:00:19.820 move that fast. There is a massive system unfolding 00:00:19.820 --> 00:00:22.100 right now, and we are going to get right into 00:00:22.100 --> 00:00:24.929 the thick of it. Let's do it. Welcome to Meteorology 00:00:24.929 --> 00:00:27.649 Matters, the podcast that dives deep into the 00:00:27.649 --> 00:00:30.050 science, chaos, and stories behind the weather 00:00:30.050 --> 00:00:32.289 that shapes our world. This show was created 00:00:32.289 --> 00:00:34.929 by meteorologist Rob Jones. Now let's get into 00:00:34.929 --> 00:00:37.750 today's episode of Meteorology Matters. It's 00:00:37.750 --> 00:00:42.869 Friday, January 23, 2026. If you have glanced 00:00:42.869 --> 00:00:45.649 at a weather map or even has looked out the window 00:00:45.649 --> 00:00:47.649 in the last 12 hours, you know what's going on. 00:00:47.670 --> 00:00:49.869 You can feel it. The situation in the United 00:00:49.869 --> 00:00:53.049 States is intensifying rapidly. The map is basically 00:00:53.049 --> 00:00:55.250 lighting up like a Christmas tree with warnings, 00:00:55.490 --> 00:00:58.090 watches, advisories, everything. The whole gamut. 00:00:58.369 --> 00:01:00.810 We are tracking a massive winter storm. Some 00:01:00.810 --> 00:01:03.329 outlets are dubbing it Winter Storm Fern. And 00:01:03.329 --> 00:01:06.489 others are using more colorful language. I've 00:01:06.489 --> 00:01:08.590 seen nightmare thrown around. But whatever label 00:01:08.590 --> 00:01:10.950 you slap on it, the reality is that it is impacting 00:01:10.950 --> 00:01:13.969 over 200 million people. It really is a staggering 00:01:13.969 --> 00:01:16.810 footprint. We aren't looking at a localized event 00:01:16.810 --> 00:01:20.049 here at all. Not even close. We are talking about 00:01:20.049 --> 00:01:23.590 a continuous system that stretches for 2 ,000 00:01:23.590 --> 00:01:26.469 miles. It's impactful from the high deserts of 00:01:26.469 --> 00:01:30.030 the southwest all the way up to the rocky coasts 00:01:30.030 --> 00:01:31.890 of Maine. And I think that's what's so critical 00:01:31.890 --> 00:01:34.030 to get across today. This isn't just a snow day 00:01:34.030 --> 00:01:36.010 storm. No, this is a multi -hazard event. We 00:01:36.010 --> 00:01:39.930 have heavy snow, crippling ice, and then life 00:01:39.930 --> 00:01:42.489 -threatening cold. all wrapped into one volatile 00:01:42.489 --> 00:01:45.010 package. It sounds like the trifecta of winter 00:01:45.010 --> 00:01:47.730 misery. So our mission today is to unpack the 00:01:47.730 --> 00:01:50.430 science behind this beast. I want to understand 00:01:50.430 --> 00:01:52.950 why this is happening, how it got so big, and 00:01:52.950 --> 00:01:55.489 honestly, why this isn't just your standard January 00:01:55.489 --> 00:01:58.730 snowstorm. Because 200 million people is a lot 00:01:58.730 --> 00:02:00.609 of people to be in the crosshairs at once. It's 00:02:00.609 --> 00:02:02.189 definitely not standard. If you want the headline, 00:02:02.250 --> 00:02:05.170 it's a textbook example of weather chaos. We 00:02:05.170 --> 00:02:07.989 are witnessing a collision of an atmospheric 00:02:07.989 --> 00:02:11.960 river with the polar vortex. It's a very complex 00:02:11.960 --> 00:02:15.639 atmospheric dance. And the result is what we 00:02:15.639 --> 00:02:18.120 are seeing on the radar right now. OK. Let's 00:02:18.120 --> 00:02:19.919 slow down and unpack that. Because usually when 00:02:19.919 --> 00:02:22.300 I hear atmospheric river, I'm thinking California 00:02:22.300 --> 00:02:25.099 getting drenched. Right. West Coast event. And 00:02:25.099 --> 00:02:28.080 when I hear polar vortex, I'm thinking of freezing 00:02:28.080 --> 00:02:30.780 faces in Minnesota. Negative 50 wind chills. 00:02:30.979 --> 00:02:34.479 Yeah. So how do these two distinct things conspire 00:02:34.479 --> 00:02:37.620 to create a 2 ,000 mile storm? That's the fascinating 00:02:37.620 --> 00:02:39.979 part. It's all about the ingredients coming together 00:02:39.979 --> 00:02:42.900 at the exact right moment. So let's look at the 00:02:42.900 --> 00:02:45.620 synoptic setup. That's the big picture view of 00:02:45.620 --> 00:02:47.840 the atmosphere. The whole board. The whole board. 00:02:48.259 --> 00:02:50.400 We have winter storm alerts stretching from Arizona 00:02:50.400 --> 00:02:53.419 and New Mexico all the way to the I -95 corridor 00:02:53.419 --> 00:02:56.319 in the Northeast. Which is just a massive slice 00:02:56.319 --> 00:02:58.960 of real estate. It is, and it's driven by two 00:02:58.960 --> 00:03:01.180 main engines. Ingredient number one is the icy 00:03:01.180 --> 00:03:04.080 air. We have a piece of the polar vortex, that 00:03:04.080 --> 00:03:06.400 large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding 00:03:06.400 --> 00:03:09.319 the Earth's poles, that has dislodged. It broke 00:03:09.319 --> 00:03:11.639 off. It's dipping deep, I mean, deep into the 00:03:11.639 --> 00:03:14.979 continental United States. is providing the sub 00:03:14.979 --> 00:03:18.259 -freezing temperatures necessary to support wintry 00:03:18.259 --> 00:03:20.439 precipitation. That's the cold tank. That's the 00:03:20.439 --> 00:03:23.240 freezer door being left wide open. Precisely. 00:03:23.319 --> 00:03:25.939 That is the perfect analogy. But cold air alone 00:03:25.939 --> 00:03:27.800 doesn't make a storm. It just makes it cold. 00:03:28.080 --> 00:03:29.939 Right. You need the moisture. You need moisture. 00:03:30.199 --> 00:03:32.159 And that is where ingredient number two comes 00:03:32.159 --> 00:03:35.319 in. We have an active subtropical jet stream 00:03:35.319 --> 00:03:38.060 that is acting like a conveyor belt. A fire hose. 00:03:38.439 --> 00:03:41.000 It is. It's pumping deep moisture from the Pacific 00:03:41.000 --> 00:03:44.550 Ocean and, crucially, The Gulf of Mexico. Ah, 00:03:44.770 --> 00:03:47.250 the Gulf. It always seems to be the fuel source 00:03:47.250 --> 00:03:49.090 for these big ones on the eastern side of the 00:03:49.090 --> 00:03:51.389 Rockies. Always. It's the engine. And just a 00:03:51.389 --> 00:03:53.650 quick note on geography, we never say Gulf of 00:03:53.650 --> 00:03:55.990 America. It is always the Gulf of Mexico. Got 00:03:55.990 --> 00:03:58.969 it. So that warm, moisture -rich air is just 00:03:58.969 --> 00:04:01.789 surging northward. Now imagine that moisture 00:04:01.789 --> 00:04:03.590 running head first into that Arctic air mass 00:04:03.590 --> 00:04:05.590 we just talked about. The collision. Exactly. 00:04:05.870 --> 00:04:07.849 You have a low pressure system developing in 00:04:07.849 --> 00:04:10.530 the southwest, and its acting is the mixing bowl. 00:04:10.639 --> 00:04:13.479 It grabs that gulf moisture and flings it right 00:04:13.479 --> 00:04:15.580 over the top of the dense arctic air. So you 00:04:15.580 --> 00:04:18.319 have warm moist air being forced to rise over 00:04:18.319 --> 00:04:20.959 cold, dense air. And that is where thermodynamics 00:04:20.959 --> 00:04:25.519 takes over. As that air rises, it cools, it condenses. 00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:27.920 Because the surrounding atmosphere is freezing, 00:04:28.560 --> 00:04:30.920 it crystallizes. It just explodes into storm 00:04:30.920 --> 00:04:34.589 development. Wow. This clash of air masses is 00:04:34.589 --> 00:04:37.550 creating what we call a baroclinic zone, basically 00:04:37.550 --> 00:04:40.149 a battlefield between warm and cold that stretches 00:04:40.149 --> 00:04:42.430 across the entire country. That is why the storm 00:04:42.430 --> 00:04:44.769 is so incredibly wide. It's almost like a slow 00:04:44.769 --> 00:04:46.769 moving freight train that just keeps adding cars 00:04:46.769 --> 00:04:49.089 as it moves east. That's a great visual. So I 00:04:49.089 --> 00:04:50.730 want to walk through the timeline of this train 00:04:50.730 --> 00:04:52.649 because if you are listening to this on Friday 00:04:52.649 --> 00:04:54.629 morning, the impacts are just getting started 00:04:54.629 --> 00:04:56.949 in some places, but others are in the crosshairs 00:04:56.949 --> 00:05:00.019 for later. Right, so Friday... Today, the focus 00:05:00.019 --> 00:05:02.420 is really on the Rockies and the Plains. We are 00:05:02.420 --> 00:05:05.139 seeing snow and wind free mix starting up in 00:05:05.139 --> 00:05:08.560 places like Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle. 00:05:08.699 --> 00:05:10.720 The first cars of the train? The first cars. 00:05:11.279 --> 00:05:14.060 As we move into Saturday, the system expands 00:05:14.060 --> 00:05:16.540 and intensifies. It pushes into the south, the 00:05:16.540 --> 00:05:19.160 Midwest, and hits the Appalachians. So Saturday 00:05:19.160 --> 00:05:21.579 is the day for massive travel disruption for 00:05:21.579 --> 00:05:23.439 the whole middle of the country. Absolutely. 00:05:23.709 --> 00:05:26.689 Total gridlock potential. And then by Sunday, 00:05:26.870 --> 00:05:29.189 the freight train reaches the East Coast. It 00:05:29.189 --> 00:05:32.110 impacts the I -95 corridor. You're looking at 00:05:32.110 --> 00:05:35.209 Washington, D .C., Philadelphia, New York City, 00:05:35.350 --> 00:05:37.910 Boston. The big population centers. Exactly. 00:05:38.389 --> 00:05:40.670 And because this system is large and moving somewhat 00:05:40.670 --> 00:05:43.870 slowly, the impacts linger. We are looking at 00:05:43.870 --> 00:05:47.110 snow and wind continuing well into Monday for 00:05:47.110 --> 00:05:49.050 the Northeast and New England. So it's a long 00:05:49.050 --> 00:05:51.430 duration event. This is not a hit and run where 00:05:51.430 --> 00:05:53.350 it snows for three hours and then leaves. No, 00:05:53.389 --> 00:05:55.050 this is going to be with us for the entire weekend. 00:05:55.550 --> 00:05:57.529 A marathon, not a sprint. Let's talk about the 00:05:57.529 --> 00:05:59.629 white stuff. Because for a lot of people, the 00:05:59.629 --> 00:06:01.930 headline here is the snow. We are seeing reports 00:06:01.930 --> 00:06:05.230 of 10, 15, maybe even 20 inches of snow in some 00:06:05.230 --> 00:06:07.470 bands. Some really impressive totals. But what 00:06:07.470 --> 00:06:09.810 stood out to me in the data was the description 00:06:09.810 --> 00:06:12.990 of the snow quality. Forecasters are using words 00:06:12.990 --> 00:06:16.089 like efficient and fluffy. I think most people 00:06:16.089 --> 00:06:19.490 assume snow is just snow. Why does the texture 00:06:19.490 --> 00:06:21.990 matter so much to a meteorologist? This is where 00:06:21.990 --> 00:06:23.730 it gets really interesting for the snow lovers 00:06:23.730 --> 00:06:27.449 and really dangerous for the road crews. It all 00:06:27.449 --> 00:06:29.509 comes down to something called snow -to -liquid 00:06:29.509 --> 00:06:31.870 ratios. Okay, walk us through that math. So, 00:06:32.310 --> 00:06:35.079 in a standard snowstorm, Think of a sloppy, wet 00:06:35.079 --> 00:06:36.779 snow where the temperatures are hovering right 00:06:36.779 --> 00:06:39.040 around freezing. The ratio is usually about 10 00:06:39.040 --> 00:06:41.680 to 1. 10 to 1. Right. That means if you melted 00:06:41.680 --> 00:06:44.500 10 inches of snow, you would get one inch of 00:06:44.500 --> 00:06:47.759 liquid water. That's heavy, wet snow. The kind 00:06:47.759 --> 00:06:49.899 that creates a slushy mess and gives you a heart 00:06:49.899 --> 00:06:51.980 attack when you try to shovel it. Exactly. That 00:06:51.980 --> 00:06:54.279 is heart attack snow. But this storm is different. 00:06:54.819 --> 00:06:56.959 Remember that polar vortex connection we discussed? 00:06:57.060 --> 00:07:00.180 The Arctic air. The air mass feeding this storm 00:07:00.180 --> 00:07:04.529 is Arctic. It is incredibly cold. So when snowflakes 00:07:04.529 --> 00:07:07.009 form in very, very cold temperatures, they tend 00:07:07.009 --> 00:07:09.149 to be lighter and fluffier. They don't stick 00:07:09.149 --> 00:07:11.730 together as much. They stack up with a lot of 00:07:11.730 --> 00:07:14.149 air in between them. It's like a downed feather 00:07:14.149 --> 00:07:17.310 pillow versus a wet sponge. That is a great analogy. 00:07:17.709 --> 00:07:20.089 Because of this cold air, we're looking at ratios 00:07:20.089 --> 00:07:22.930 much higher than 10 to 1. We might see 15 to 00:07:22.930 --> 00:07:25.449 1 or even 20 to 1 in some of these spots. So 00:07:25.449 --> 00:07:27.509 for the exact same amount of moisture in the 00:07:27.509 --> 00:07:29.930 air, you get double the pile of snow on the ground. 00:07:30.089 --> 00:07:33.029 That is the efficiency part. Even modest amounts 00:07:33.029 --> 00:07:35.350 of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will translate 00:07:35.350 --> 00:07:38.449 into huge snowfall totals on the ground. The 00:07:38.449 --> 00:07:41.050 snow just piles up incredibly quickly. That sounds 00:07:41.050 --> 00:07:43.810 deceptive. It is. You might look outside, see 00:07:43.810 --> 00:07:45.470 it snowing moderately, and think, oh, it's not 00:07:45.470 --> 00:07:47.069 too bad. And then an hour later, you have three 00:07:47.069 --> 00:07:49.769 inches on the ground. That seems incredibly deceptive 00:07:49.769 --> 00:07:52.209 for drivers. It is. And it catches road crews 00:07:52.209 --> 00:07:54.209 off guard because it accumulates faster than 00:07:54.209 --> 00:07:56.829 they can physically plow it. We're looking at 00:07:56.829 --> 00:07:58.970 significant accumulation zones in the plains, 00:07:59.509 --> 00:08:03.050 in Midwest Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, 00:08:04.110 --> 00:08:07.290 Indiana. All primed for that deep fluffy powder. 00:08:07.529 --> 00:08:09.769 That's right. And looking further east, it seems 00:08:09.769 --> 00:08:11.990 like the infamous snow drought on the East Coast 00:08:11.990 --> 00:08:15.170 is finally about to break. And break in a big 00:08:15.170 --> 00:08:18.519 way. It certainly seems that way. The I -95 drought 00:08:18.519 --> 00:08:20.779 has been a topic of conversation for a long, 00:08:20.800 --> 00:08:23.860 long time. I mean, New York City hasn't seen 00:08:23.860 --> 00:08:26.600 a foot of snow from a single storm since 2021. 00:08:26.759 --> 00:08:29.180 And Washington, D .C., I saw, hasn't seen a foot 00:08:29.180 --> 00:08:32.039 in a decade. Ten years. Think about that. That 00:08:32.039 --> 00:08:35.799 is wild. It is. But the models are fairly consistent 00:08:35.799 --> 00:08:39.340 right now. Cities like D .C., Philadelphia, NYC, 00:08:39.419 --> 00:08:42.360 and Boston are all staring down the barrel of 00:08:42.360 --> 00:08:45.559 12 plus inches. For D .C. and Baltimore, This 00:08:45.559 --> 00:08:47.960 could be the biggest event in a generation of 00:08:47.960 --> 00:08:50.539 kids. I want to geek out for a second on why 00:08:50.539 --> 00:08:52.580 the snow gets so fluffy. You mentioned the cold 00:08:52.580 --> 00:08:55.080 air, but I saw a specific term in the research 00:08:55.080 --> 00:08:58.799 notes. The dendritic growth zone. The DGZ. It 00:08:58.799 --> 00:09:00.700 sounds like something from a sci -fi movie. What 00:09:00.700 --> 00:09:03.220 is happening in that zone? The DGZ. This is one 00:09:03.220 --> 00:09:05.039 of my favorite atmospheric concepts. It refers 00:09:05.039 --> 00:09:07.659 to a specific layer in the atmosphere where the 00:09:07.659 --> 00:09:09.899 temperature is between negative 12 degrees Celsius 00:09:09.899 --> 00:09:12.899 and negative 18 degrees Celsius. That is a very 00:09:12.899 --> 00:09:16.250 specific window. Why that range? It's all physics. 00:09:17.269 --> 00:09:20.090 In that temperature range, water vapor deposits 00:09:20.090 --> 00:09:24.929 directly onto ice nuclei to form large branching 00:09:24.929 --> 00:09:28.710 snowflakes called stellar dendrites. Think of 00:09:28.710 --> 00:09:31.110 the classic paper cutout snowflake you made in 00:09:31.110 --> 00:09:33.990 kindergarten. The big six -sided intricate arms. 00:09:34.250 --> 00:09:36.250 The pretty ones, exactly. The ones that look 00:09:36.250 --> 00:09:39.090 perfect. Those large branching arms allow the 00:09:39.090 --> 00:09:41.669 snowflakes to interlock and trap a ton of air. 00:09:41.840 --> 00:09:45.419 That creates the fluff. Now in this storm, because 00:09:45.419 --> 00:09:47.820 the cold air is so deep, the dendritic growth 00:09:47.820 --> 00:09:50.360 zone is incredibly thick. So the snowflakes are 00:09:50.360 --> 00:09:52.299 spending more time there. A long time. They're 00:09:52.299 --> 00:09:53.879 falling through that perfect temperature range, 00:09:54.080 --> 00:09:56.419 just growing larger and more complex. So by the 00:09:56.419 --> 00:09:58.399 time they hit the ground, they are maximizing 00:09:58.399 --> 00:10:01.379 that fluff factor. So we have a deep DGZ, high 00:10:01.379 --> 00:10:03.990 ratios, and efficient piling. That is great for 00:10:03.990 --> 00:10:06.370 skiers, maybe bad for commuters. Very bad for 00:10:06.370 --> 00:10:08.350 commuters. But as much as we talk about snow, 00:10:08.470 --> 00:10:10.909 there is a much more sinister side to this storm 00:10:10.909 --> 00:10:13.049 that we need to address. There is. And frankly, 00:10:13.049 --> 00:10:15.029 this is the part that concerns me the most. We 00:10:15.029 --> 00:10:18.289 need to shift gears and talk about the ice, because 00:10:18.289 --> 00:10:21.389 while snow is disruptive, ice is destructive. 00:10:21.769 --> 00:10:24.509 And there is a very specific zone, a nightmare 00:10:24.509 --> 00:10:26.970 scenario, really setting up across the South. 00:10:27.250 --> 00:10:29.789 This is the part of the forecast that keeps meteorologists 00:10:29.789 --> 00:10:32.730 up at night. We are identifying an ice corridor 00:10:32.919 --> 00:10:35.259 that stretches from northern Texas through southern 00:10:35.259 --> 00:10:37.679 Oklahoma and Arkansas and then continues east 00:10:37.679 --> 00:10:40.259 into northern Mississippi and Tennessee and then 00:10:40.259 --> 00:10:42.340 it bends up into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. 00:10:42.460 --> 00:10:45.080 That is a huge swath of the country and frankly 00:10:45.080 --> 00:10:47.639 an area that is not built for heavy ice. Not 00:10:47.639 --> 00:10:50.759 at all. And the physics of an ice storm are very 00:10:50.759 --> 00:10:53.700 different from a snowstorm. To get ice, specifically 00:10:53.700 --> 00:10:57.179 freezing rain, you need a very specific and very 00:10:57.179 --> 00:10:59.820 dangerous vertical temperature profile. We call 00:10:59.820 --> 00:11:02.320 it the warm nose. The warm nose. Explain that 00:11:02.320 --> 00:11:04.799 mechanism. How can it be snowing in the north 00:11:04.799 --> 00:11:07.159 and raining ice in the south all from the same 00:11:07.159 --> 00:11:09.940 storm? So imagine a slice of the atmosphere from 00:11:09.940 --> 00:11:12.899 the ground up. At the surface, where we live, 00:11:13.240 --> 00:11:14.820 the temperature is sub -freezing. It's cold. 00:11:15.100 --> 00:11:17.360 28, 29, 30 degrees Fahrenheit. Below freezing. 00:11:17.480 --> 00:11:20.340 But if you go up about 5 ,000 to 10 ,000 feet, 00:11:20.679 --> 00:11:24.059 there is a layer of warm air that is above freezing, 00:11:24.559 --> 00:11:28.240 pushing in from the south. That is the nose of 00:11:28.240 --> 00:11:31.139 warm air punching into the cold. OK, so the precipitation 00:11:31.139 --> 00:11:33.980 starts as snow way up high in the clouds. Right. 00:11:34.179 --> 00:11:36.559 It falls as snow, but then it hits that warm 00:11:36.559 --> 00:11:39.009 nose. and melts completely. It turns into rain. 00:11:39.070 --> 00:11:41.590 It becomes liquid water. But then as it continues 00:11:41.590 --> 00:11:44.450 falling, it exits that warm layer and re -enters 00:11:44.450 --> 00:11:46.570 the cold layer near the surface. But it doesn't 00:11:46.570 --> 00:11:49.049 have time to turn back into snow. No. There isn't 00:11:49.049 --> 00:11:51.370 time. It becomes what we call supercooled liquid. 00:11:51.769 --> 00:11:53.710 It stays liquid, even though it's below freezing. 00:11:54.090 --> 00:11:57.330 That sounds unstable. Very. But the instant that 00:11:57.330 --> 00:11:59.990 supercooled raindrop hits a power line, a tree 00:11:59.990 --> 00:12:02.830 branch, or road surface that is below 32 degrees, 00:12:03.490 --> 00:12:06.759 snap. It freezes instantly on contact. It creates 00:12:06.759 --> 00:12:09.440 a glaze of clear ice. And that accretion builds 00:12:09.440 --> 00:12:11.919 up fast. We're seeing forecasts of a quarter 00:12:11.919 --> 00:12:14.100 inch to three quarters of an inch of ice accretion. 00:12:14.200 --> 00:12:15.779 And to put that in perspective, a quarter inch 00:12:15.779 --> 00:12:18.820 is usually the threshold for nuisance power outages. 00:12:19.000 --> 00:12:21.759 A few branches down. Exactly. Once you get to 00:12:21.759 --> 00:12:24.740 a half inch of ice, you are talking about hundreds 00:12:24.740 --> 00:12:28.299 of pounds of extra weight added to a single span 00:12:28.299 --> 00:12:31.250 of power line. It brings down the lines. It snaps 00:12:31.250 --> 00:12:33.870 massive tree limbs like twigs. And three -quarters 00:12:33.870 --> 00:12:37.429 of an inch? That is crippling. That is catastrophic 00:12:37.429 --> 00:12:39.909 infrastructure damage that can take weeks to 00:12:39.909 --> 00:12:42.830 repair. And there's a specific geographic setup 00:12:42.830 --> 00:12:45.470 causing this in the East, right? The Carolinas 00:12:45.470 --> 00:12:47.549 in Virginia seem to be in a particularly bad 00:12:47.549 --> 00:12:50.350 spot because of the mountains. Yes. That is a 00:12:50.350 --> 00:12:53.929 phenomenon called cold air damming, or CAD. We 00:12:53.929 --> 00:12:56.250 hear that term a lot in the Mid -Atlantic. What 00:12:56.250 --> 00:12:59.049 is the mechanism there? It's crucial here. We 00:12:59.049 --> 00:13:01.809 have a very strong high -pressure system, about 00:13:01.809 --> 00:13:04.710 1040 millibars, which is incredibly strong sitting 00:13:04.710 --> 00:13:08.070 to the north. Pushing cold air south. It is funneling 00:13:08.070 --> 00:13:10.990 dense, heavy cold air down the eastern side of 00:13:10.990 --> 00:13:12.490 the Appalachian Mountains. And the mountains 00:13:12.490 --> 00:13:14.889 act like a physical dam against the air. Exactly. 00:13:15.090 --> 00:13:16.830 The cold air hits the mountains and gets trapped. 00:13:16.870 --> 00:13:19.350 It can't go west, so it just pools there in the 00:13:19.350 --> 00:13:22.210 Piedmont of North Carolina and Virginia. It forms 00:13:22.210 --> 00:13:24.950 a wedge of freezing air at the surface that just 00:13:24.950 --> 00:13:27.850 refuses to budge. So it's locked in place. Locked 00:13:27.850 --> 00:13:30.639 in. So even if warm air tries to move in a loft, 00:13:31.399 --> 00:13:34.159 that surface cold is not going anywhere. That 00:13:34.159 --> 00:13:36.779 prolongs the freezing rain event significantly. 00:13:37.500 --> 00:13:39.419 Places like Charlotte, Greensboro, and Richmond 00:13:39.419 --> 00:13:42.279 could see hours upon hours of freezing rain because 00:13:42.279 --> 00:13:44.549 of this damming effect. It sounds like a recipe 00:13:44.549 --> 00:13:47.529 for widespread power outages. A terrible one. 00:13:47.950 --> 00:13:50.289 And that leads us directly into the next danger. 00:13:50.870 --> 00:13:52.350 Because usually when the power goes out, it's 00:13:52.350 --> 00:13:54.570 bad. But when the power goes out and you are 00:13:54.570 --> 00:13:56.309 facing the kind of temperatures coming behind 00:13:56.309 --> 00:13:59.149 the storm, that becomes a life safety issue. 00:13:59.509 --> 00:14:02.129 This is the one -two punch we are concerned about. 00:14:02.490 --> 00:14:05.120 Punch one is the storm. The ice knocking out 00:14:05.120 --> 00:14:07.220 the power, snapping the lines. And punch two 00:14:07.220 --> 00:14:09.700 is the cold. Punch two is the Arctic air rushing 00:14:09.700 --> 00:14:12.019 in immediately behind it. We are talking about 00:14:12.019 --> 00:14:14.320 record -breaking cold, aren't we? We are. In 00:14:14.320 --> 00:14:16.340 the upper Midwest North Dakota, Minnesota, we 00:14:16.340 --> 00:14:19.139 are forecasting wind chills dipping to negative 00:14:19.139 --> 00:14:22.879 55 degrees Fahrenheit. Minus 55. That is frostbite 00:14:22.879 --> 00:14:25.360 in minutes on exposed skin. But even further 00:14:25.360 --> 00:14:27.279 south, where the ice is hitting, temperatures 00:14:27.279 --> 00:14:29.179 are going to plummet well below freezing and 00:14:29.179 --> 00:14:32.240 stay there for days. So if you lose power in 00:14:32.240 --> 00:14:35.980 Memphis or Little Rock or Charlotte, you aren't 00:14:35.980 --> 00:14:37.960 just sitting in the dark. You are sitting in 00:14:37.960 --> 00:14:41.080 a rapidly freezing house. Precisely. And recovery 00:14:41.080 --> 00:14:43.860 becomes so much harder. Crews can't fix power 00:14:43.860 --> 00:14:45.980 lines when the wind chills are dangerous or when 00:14:45.980 --> 00:14:48.840 the roads are, well, skating rinks. And speaking 00:14:48.840 --> 00:14:51.220 of skating rinks, we need to talk about the flash 00:14:51.220 --> 00:14:54.100 freeze. Yes, the flash freeze. Yeah, explain 00:14:54.100 --> 00:14:56.620 that sequence. As the cold front sweeps through, 00:14:57.120 --> 00:15:00.399 Temperatures drop incredibly fast. So all that 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:03.879 slush rain or wet snow on the roads freezes solid. 00:15:04.360 --> 00:15:06.840 It turns into concrete ice. And you can't treat 00:15:06.840 --> 00:15:10.379 it. Well, here's the kicker. Roats, salt, sodium 00:15:10.379 --> 00:15:12.600 chloride loses its effectiveness when it gets 00:15:12.600 --> 00:15:15.259 too cold. Oh, really? Yeah. Once you get below 00:15:15.259 --> 00:15:17.820 about 15 or 20 degrees Fahrenheit, salt stops 00:15:17.820 --> 00:15:20.259 melting ice efficiently. So we could see roads 00:15:20.259 --> 00:15:22.620 that are literally impossible to treat. They'll 00:15:22.620 --> 00:15:24.980 be impassable. That is terrifying for drivers. 00:15:25.440 --> 00:15:27.059 And you mentioned something earlier in our prep 00:15:27.059 --> 00:15:28.779 that I thought was a myth, but apparently is 00:15:28.779 --> 00:15:31.700 real. Exploding trees? It sounds like a tall 00:15:31.700 --> 00:15:34.419 tale, doesn't it? But it is absolutely real. 00:15:34.700 --> 00:15:37.159 In these extreme cold drops, like when you go 00:15:37.159 --> 00:15:39.779 to daughters 20 degrees Fahrenheit rapidly, the 00:15:39.779 --> 00:15:42.100 sap inside hardwood trees like maples and oaks 00:15:42.100 --> 00:15:44.799 can freeze. And water expands when it freezes. 00:15:44.879 --> 00:15:46.960 Right. And if it freezes and expands rapidly 00:15:46.960 --> 00:15:49.379 enough, the pressure builds up inside the trunk 00:15:49.379 --> 00:15:53.690 until POP. No way! The tree literally splits 00:15:53.690 --> 00:15:56.250 or bursts. It sounds just like a gunshot going 00:15:56.250 --> 00:15:58.490 off in the woods. It's a testament to just how 00:15:58.490 --> 00:16:01.309 brutal this cold air mass is. That is wild. Nature 00:16:01.309 --> 00:16:03.909 is so powerful. Let's talk about the human impact 00:16:03.909 --> 00:16:06.429 of all this, because 200 million people impacted 00:16:06.429 --> 00:16:10.049 means 200 million lives disrupted. We are already 00:16:10.049 --> 00:16:12.350 seeing the travel chaos begin. It's cascading 00:16:12.350 --> 00:16:14.570 quickly. Flight cancellations are already topping 00:16:14.570 --> 00:16:17.169 1 ,200 for Friday and Saturday. Airlines are 00:16:17.169 --> 00:16:18.909 issuing waivers across the board, which is a 00:16:18.909 --> 00:16:20.950 sign they know planes aren't moving. And the 00:16:20.950 --> 00:16:24.230 roads, I mean, I -10, I -20, I -35, I -40, I 00:16:24.230 --> 00:16:27.169 -95. That is basically every major artery in 00:16:27.169 --> 00:16:28.850 the eastern half of the country. Every single 00:16:28.850 --> 00:16:30.690 one. And remember, even if the weather is fine 00:16:30.690 --> 00:16:33.269 where you are, The ripple effect in the aviation 00:16:33.269 --> 00:16:36.309 system is real. Crews get displaced. Planes get 00:16:36.309 --> 00:16:39.590 stuck in Dallas or Chicago. You might be in Miami 00:16:39.590 --> 00:16:42.590 with sunny skies, but your plane is frozen to 00:16:42.590 --> 00:16:45.830 the tarmac in O 'Hare. The whole system grinds 00:16:45.830 --> 00:16:48.830 to a halt. We are seeing a lot of governors declaring 00:16:48.830 --> 00:16:52.029 state of emergencies. Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, 00:16:52.450 --> 00:16:56.210 Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, 00:16:56.470 --> 00:16:59.129 Virginia, Maryland. The list keeps growing. It 00:16:59.129 --> 00:17:00.950 sounds scary, but what does that actually mean 00:17:00.950 --> 00:17:04.069 operationally? Is it just tannic? No, it's important 00:17:04.069 --> 00:17:06.230 not to see that as just panic. A state of emergency 00:17:06.230 --> 00:17:09.309 is a procedural tool. It unlocks resources. It's 00:17:09.309 --> 00:17:11.650 a switch they flip. It is. It allows the governor 00:17:11.650 --> 00:17:14.349 to mobilize the National Guard to help with stranded 00:17:14.349 --> 00:17:17.690 motorists or check on vulnerable people. It frees 00:17:17.690 --> 00:17:20.670 up funding for pretreating roads. It waives certain 00:17:20.670 --> 00:17:23.069 regulations for utility trucks crossing state 00:17:23.069 --> 00:17:26.009 lines to help restore power. So it's about preparedness, 00:17:26.609 --> 00:17:29.210 getting the assets in place before the ice hits. 00:17:29.349 --> 00:17:32.089 Exactly. For example, in Texas, Governor Abbott 00:17:32.089 --> 00:17:34.210 has been very vocal about ensuring that UCOC 00:17:34.210 --> 00:17:36.589 grid is ready. They're trying to avoid a repeat 00:17:36.589 --> 00:17:39.849 of past disasters. And I saw in NYC they are 00:17:39.849 --> 00:17:42.789 recruiting emergency snow shovelers. It's all 00:17:42.789 --> 00:17:45.190 hands on deck. Okay, let's pivot to the listener. 00:17:45.630 --> 00:17:49.150 If you are in the path of this thing, which statistically 00:17:49.150 --> 00:17:51.970 you probably are, what do you need to do right 00:17:51.970 --> 00:17:55.089 now? We have compiled a Meteorology Matters checklist. 00:17:55.309 --> 00:17:57.269 And the time for preparation is closing fast, 00:17:57.309 --> 00:18:00.809 so action is needed now. First up, power. Assume 00:18:00.809 --> 00:18:03.390 you will lose it. Charge everything, your phones, 00:18:03.650 --> 00:18:05.869 your tablets, those portable power banks. If 00:18:05.869 --> 00:18:08.269 you have rechargeable lanterns, juice them up. 00:18:08.470 --> 00:18:11.890 And you had a pro tip for the fridge. Yes. Turn 00:18:11.890 --> 00:18:13.970 your fridge and freezer to their coldest settings 00:18:13.970 --> 00:18:17.549 right now. Why is that? It super cools the food. 00:18:17.890 --> 00:18:19.589 If the power goes out, you keep the door closed 00:18:19.589 --> 00:18:22.450 and that thermal mass stays cold longer, buying 00:18:22.450 --> 00:18:24.809 you precious hours before food starts to spoil. 00:18:24.990 --> 00:18:27.750 That is smart physics. Next on the list, water. 00:18:27.930 --> 00:18:30.269 If you're on a municipal supply, you're probably 00:18:30.269 --> 00:18:33.049 okay, but you should still drip your faucets. 00:18:33.329 --> 00:18:35.809 Moving water doesn't freeze as easily, and that 00:18:35.809 --> 00:18:37.809 can prevent your pipes from bursting and causing 00:18:37.809 --> 00:18:40.009 a massive flood inside your house. And if you're 00:18:40.009 --> 00:18:42.849 on a well? If you are on a well that needs an 00:18:42.849 --> 00:18:46.329 electric pump, fill the bathtub. Fill every butcher 00:18:46.329 --> 00:18:49.009 you have. You need water for flushing toilets 00:18:49.009 --> 00:18:53.109 and hygiene if the... power. Yeah. And therefore 00:18:53.109 --> 00:18:56.940 your pump fail. Next up, the car. Keep the tank 00:18:56.940 --> 00:18:59.619 at least half full. Is that to prevent the gas 00:18:59.619 --> 00:19:03.259 line from freezing? Partly, yes. But mostly it's 00:19:03.259 --> 00:19:05.420 for warmth. If you get stranded, or if your house 00:19:05.420 --> 00:19:07.819 loses heat and becomes uninhabitable, your car 00:19:07.819 --> 00:19:10.700 becomes your lifeboat. A warming station. A warming 00:19:10.700 --> 00:19:13.000 station. You can run the heater periodically 00:19:13.000 --> 00:19:16.319 to warm up, but... And this is critical. Make 00:19:16.319 --> 00:19:18.539 sure the exhaust pipe is clear of snow before 00:19:18.539 --> 00:19:20.240 you do. And that leads to the biggest safety 00:19:20.240 --> 00:19:22.759 warning we have. Carbon monoxide, the silent 00:19:22.759 --> 00:19:24.779 killer. Every time we have a major ice storm 00:19:24.779 --> 00:19:27.279 we see a spike in poisonings. It's so tragic 00:19:27.279 --> 00:19:29.359 and preventable. It is. People get desperate 00:19:29.359 --> 00:19:31.740 for heat or power. They run generators in the 00:19:31.740 --> 00:19:33.980 garage or they try to use a gas grill indoors 00:19:33.980 --> 00:19:36.640 for heat. Never do that. Never ever run a combustion 00:19:36.640 --> 00:19:39.460 engine or grill inside or in an attached garage. 00:19:39.880 --> 00:19:42.480 The fumes are odorless and they're deadly. Keep 00:19:42.480 --> 00:19:45.690 the generator outside. away from windows excellent 00:19:45.690 --> 00:19:50.250 advice and finally stay off the roads don't crowd 00:19:50.250 --> 00:19:53.049 the plow is the saying but ideally don't even 00:19:53.049 --> 00:19:55.210 be on the road to see the plow if you can stay 00:19:55.210 --> 00:19:57.549 home please stay home it's the safest place to 00:19:57.549 --> 00:20:01.819 be so to recap the situation we have winter storm 00:20:01.819 --> 00:20:03.799 fern, or whatever you want to call it. It's a 00:20:03.799 --> 00:20:07.039 historic system covering 2 ,000 miles, impacting 00:20:07.039 --> 00:20:11.039 roughly 235 million people. It brings heavy, 00:20:11.259 --> 00:20:13.319 efficient snow to the north, crippling ice to 00:20:13.319 --> 00:20:16.259 the south, and is followed by a brutal, life 00:20:16.259 --> 00:20:19.000 -threatening Arctic freeze. The weather is a 00:20:19.000 --> 00:20:20.940 powerful force, and understanding the science 00:20:20.940 --> 00:20:23.890 helps us prepare. But here is one final thought 00:20:23.890 --> 00:20:26.509 to chew on we talked about the human factor in 00:20:26.509 --> 00:20:29.109 meteorology We trust the models we trust the 00:20:29.109 --> 00:20:32.190 radar But in an event this complex with ice lines 00:20:32.190 --> 00:20:34.269 shifting by five miles making the difference 00:20:34.269 --> 00:20:37.250 between rain and ruin The human intuition of 00:20:37.250 --> 00:20:39.509 local forecasters is still the most valuable 00:20:39.509 --> 00:20:42.109 tool we have Oh absolutely The models give us 00:20:42.109 --> 00:20:44.309 the data, but the people give us the context. 00:20:44.390 --> 00:20:46.069 It is so true. The nuance is everything. You 00:20:46.069 --> 00:20:47.930 can't get that from a computer model alone. If 00:20:47.930 --> 00:20:49.730 you want to stay ahead of the weather and get 00:20:49.730 --> 00:20:52.630 that nuance, make sure to follow meteorologist 00:20:52.630 --> 00:20:55.170 Rob Jones. Absolutely. He's fantastic. You can 00:20:55.170 --> 00:20:58.150 find him on Instagram at Meteorologist Simple 00:20:58.150 --> 00:21:01.390 and Easy. On TikTok, look for TV Meteorologist. 00:21:01.589 --> 00:21:03.970 And on YouTube, search for Rob Jones Hurricane. 00:21:04.170 --> 00:21:07.269 You can find the entire Meteorology Matters podcast 00:21:07.269 --> 00:21:09.529 playlist there as well. And please, if you found 00:21:09.529 --> 00:21:11.990 this conversation helpful today, like, follow, 00:21:12.349 --> 00:21:14.369 comment, and rate the podcast. It really helps 00:21:14.369 --> 00:21:16.450 us get this vital information to more people. 00:21:16.670 --> 00:21:19.109 It really does. It makes a huge difference. You've 00:21:19.109 --> 00:21:21.730 been listening to Meteorology Matters, created 00:21:21.730 --> 00:21:24.910 by meteorologist Rob Jones. Stay safe out there. 00:21:25.009 --> 00:21:28.130 Stay warm. And please keep an eye on the sky. 00:21:28.529 --> 00:21:30.869 Thanks for listening. And remember, meteorology 00:21:30.869 --> 00:21:31.589 always matters.