WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.599 It is December 23rd, 2025. And if you are planning 00:00:04.599 --> 00:00:06.599 on traveling anywhere in the United States over 00:00:06.599 --> 00:00:08.400 the next week or so, or honestly, if you live 00:00:08.400 --> 00:00:10.919 anywhere between Seattle and Miami, you really, 00:00:10.939 --> 00:00:13.060 really have to listen to this forecast immediately. 00:00:13.199 --> 00:00:15.400 Yeah, that's right. We're sitting on the precipice 00:00:15.400 --> 00:00:18.160 of what looks to be the busiest holiday travel 00:00:18.160 --> 00:00:20.920 period in recorded history. And the weather map 00:00:20.920 --> 00:00:23.359 is just it's split right down the middle with 00:00:23.359 --> 00:00:26.059 chaos and extremes. Absolutely. This forecast 00:00:26.059 --> 00:00:29.219 has some, you know, incredibly far reaching impacts 00:00:29.219 --> 00:00:32.570 across the whole country for everyone this holiday 00:00:32.570 --> 00:00:34.630 season. Especially if you're going to be traveling. 00:00:34.829 --> 00:00:37.390 Welcome to Meteorology Matters, the podcast that 00:00:37.390 --> 00:00:39.850 dives deep into the science, chaos and stories 00:00:39.850 --> 00:00:42.149 behind the weather that shapes our world. This 00:00:42.149 --> 00:00:44.429 show was created by meteorologist Rob Jones. 00:00:45.009 --> 00:00:47.549 Now let's get into today's episode of Meteorology 00:00:47.549 --> 00:00:50.710 Matters. We are truly grappling with an extraordinary 00:00:50.710 --> 00:00:53.369 atmospheric split right now. It's almost a textbook 00:00:53.369 --> 00:00:56.570 case of Weather divergence? Textbook case, yeah. 00:00:56.829 --> 00:00:58.670 On the western half of the continent, you've 00:00:58.670 --> 00:01:03.450 got this monster, high -impact storm system just 00:01:03.450 --> 00:01:05.650 bearing down on the entire Pacific coast and 00:01:05.650 --> 00:01:08.049 the Rockies. It's bringing historic moisture, 00:01:08.530 --> 00:01:12.030 extreme wind, and a very serious, life -threatening 00:01:12.030 --> 00:01:14.030 flood risk. And then at the exact same time... 00:01:14.030 --> 00:01:16.109 Timetaniously, on the eastern half, stretching 00:01:16.109 --> 00:01:19.390 all the way from the plains to the eastern seaboard, 00:01:19.409 --> 00:01:23.489 we have a massive, unseasonal heat dome. It's 00:01:23.489 --> 00:01:25.569 just... dominating the center of the country. 00:01:26.090 --> 00:01:28.609 I mean, it's poised to smash. dozens of high 00:01:28.609 --> 00:01:30.930 temperature records. So for millions, it's going 00:01:30.930 --> 00:01:32.950 to be a white hot Christmas. That's the perfect 00:01:32.950 --> 00:01:35.069 term for it. It is the great weather divergence 00:01:35.069 --> 00:01:38.090 of the 2025 holidays. And it means travelers 00:01:38.090 --> 00:01:40.629 are fighting two wildly different high impact 00:01:40.629 --> 00:01:43.030 battles. Whether you are dodging rock slides 00:01:43.030 --> 00:01:45.549 in California or, you know, sweating through 00:01:45.549 --> 00:01:48.329 an 80 degree Christmas in Texas. You need to 00:01:48.329 --> 00:01:50.750 understand not just what is driving this, but 00:01:50.750 --> 00:01:53.189 why it is so dangerous when it collides with 00:01:53.189 --> 00:01:55.900 these record holiday crowds. Let's start where 00:01:55.900 --> 00:01:58.000 the immediate danger is highest. I think where 00:01:58.000 --> 00:02:00.099 the atmospheric drama is the most intense, and 00:02:00.099 --> 00:02:01.659 that is definitely the West Coast. Without a 00:02:01.659 --> 00:02:04.239 doubt. California, the Pacific Northwest, the 00:02:04.239 --> 00:02:07.640 Rockies. They're all facing significant travel 00:02:07.640 --> 00:02:10.219 hazards, kicking off Tuesday night and lasting 00:02:10.219 --> 00:02:12.000 right through Christmas Day and the weekend. 00:02:12.240 --> 00:02:14.080 And this isn't just, you know, typical winter 00:02:14.080 --> 00:02:17.389 rain. Not by a long shot. No. You're absolutely 00:02:17.389 --> 00:02:19.889 right. This is a massive moisture event. The 00:02:19.889 --> 00:02:22.629 meteorological community refers to it as an atmospheric 00:02:22.629 --> 00:02:25.310 river. Right. And for those who might be unfamiliar, 00:02:25.469 --> 00:02:27.689 you should really think of it as a river of water 00:02:27.689 --> 00:02:30.750 vapor high up in the atmosphere. It's often nicknamed 00:02:30.750 --> 00:02:33.849 the Pineapple Express because it draws that deep 00:02:33.849 --> 00:02:36.729 tropical moisture right out of the Pacific. And 00:02:36.729 --> 00:02:39.530 this one is aimed... What, straight at the California 00:02:39.530 --> 00:02:43.169 coast? Like a fire hose. Straight toward California. 00:02:43.349 --> 00:02:46.150 So we've heard the term atmospheric river a lot 00:02:46.150 --> 00:02:50.050 recently. What makes this particular system so 00:02:50.050 --> 00:02:52.669 powerful? How are forecasters quantifying this 00:02:52.669 --> 00:02:55.550 danger? It's really the sheer volume and the 00:02:55.550 --> 00:02:57.169 speed of the moisture transport. This is not 00:02:57.169 --> 00:02:59.250 a weak system that's just going to generate some 00:02:59.250 --> 00:03:02.310 steady drizzle. For the Bay Area, the intensity 00:03:02.310 --> 00:03:04.939 is forecast to be, well, It's quite significant. 00:03:05.379 --> 00:03:07.639 Forecasters are using highly technical language, 00:03:08.060 --> 00:03:10.680 things like high -end strong to low -end extreme 00:03:10.680 --> 00:03:13.560 intensity. Okay, so let's translate that jargon 00:03:13.560 --> 00:03:15.840 for the traveler. What does high -end strong 00:03:15.840 --> 00:03:18.259 to low -end extreme actually mean for someone 00:03:18.259 --> 00:03:20.240 trying to get home for Christmas? It means the 00:03:20.240 --> 00:03:22.659 water is coming in so fast that normal storm 00:03:22.659 --> 00:03:25.439 drains in creek beds. they just can't handle 00:03:25.439 --> 00:03:27.180 the volume. High and strong means you're going 00:03:27.180 --> 00:03:30.180 to see significant regional impacts. You know, 00:03:30.300 --> 00:03:32.740 localized flooding, debris flows. And low -end 00:03:32.740 --> 00:03:34.780 extreme, that sounds like a whole other level. 00:03:34.879 --> 00:03:37.419 It is. When they use that phrase, it signals 00:03:37.419 --> 00:03:40.360 the potential for major widespread impacts. Things 00:03:40.360 --> 00:03:42.639 that can lead to infrastructure failures, multi 00:03:42.639 --> 00:03:46.319 -day road closures, and... and life -threatening 00:03:46.319 --> 00:03:48.699 flash floods. We are talking about a powerful 00:03:48.699 --> 00:03:51.439 influx of water vapor carrying the equivalent 00:03:51.439 --> 00:03:54.000 of several Mississippi rivers worth of moisture 00:03:54.000 --> 00:03:57.020 and it's aimed directly at populated coastal 00:03:57.020 --> 00:04:00.099 and mountainous areas. And the timing just couldn't 00:04:00.099 --> 00:04:02.960 be worse. It's a multi -wave event hitting right 00:04:02.960 --> 00:04:06.400 at peak travel. So when exactly should people 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:08.819 be adjusting their plans? The initial arrival 00:04:08.819 --> 00:04:11.460 begins Tuesday night, but the most significant 00:04:11.460 --> 00:04:14.719 high impact period for California is concentrated 00:04:14.719 --> 00:04:17.160 from Tuesday night right through Thursday. So 00:04:17.160 --> 00:04:19.399 right through Christmas Eve and into Christmas 00:04:19.399 --> 00:04:22.699 morning. Unfortunately, yes, that chaotic weather 00:04:22.699 --> 00:04:24.819 is going to continue right into Christmas Day 00:04:24.819 --> 00:04:27.680 and the hazards are multifaceted. You've got 00:04:27.680 --> 00:04:30.079 heavy valley rain at low elevations, which causes 00:04:30.079 --> 00:04:32.560 urban flooding. Then you have extremely heavy 00:04:32.560 --> 00:04:35.040 mountain snow higher up, which will cause road 00:04:35.040 --> 00:04:37.480 closures and wind and widespread high winds. 00:04:37.620 --> 00:04:40.139 Absolutely. Knocking out power, making driving 00:04:40.139 --> 00:04:42.560 nearly impossible. And critically, this system 00:04:42.560 --> 00:04:45.240 doesn't just stop at the coast. It spreads eastward. 00:04:45.449 --> 00:04:47.569 into the Northwest, the Great Basin, the desert 00:04:47.569 --> 00:04:50.949 Southwest, and severely impacting holiday skiers 00:04:50.949 --> 00:04:52.689 and the Rockies. It will just arrive there slightly 00:04:52.689 --> 00:04:55.490 later. OK, let's zoom in on Southern California 00:04:55.490 --> 00:04:58.709 because the flooding risk there looks truly terrifying, 00:04:59.170 --> 00:05:01.509 especially for Christmas Eve. The National Weather 00:05:01.509 --> 00:05:03.990 Service has issued an excessive rainfall warning, 00:05:04.149 --> 00:05:06.610 and I saw they've upgraded it to a high risk 00:05:06.610 --> 00:05:09.759 for flash flooding. This isn't a drill. That 00:05:09.759 --> 00:05:12.319 high risk designation is the absolute highest 00:05:12.319 --> 00:05:16.379 category on the scale, and it is extremely serious. 00:05:16.459 --> 00:05:19.680 It's focused specifically on areas just north 00:05:19.680 --> 00:05:21.220 of the city of Los Angeles. So you're talking 00:05:21.220 --> 00:05:23.579 about densely populated communities like Burbank, 00:05:23.759 --> 00:05:26.579 Altadena, Glendale, San Bernardino, Santa Clarita, 00:05:26.720 --> 00:05:29.240 and Thousand Oaks. So when forecasters with the 00:05:29.240 --> 00:05:31.560 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 00:05:31.560 --> 00:05:34.240 in Los Angeles elevate the threat to higher risk, 00:05:34.560 --> 00:05:36.579 what are they signaling? They're signaling a 00:05:36.579 --> 00:05:38.970 rare scenario where destructive flooding is both 00:05:38.970 --> 00:05:41.389 likely and widespread. What specifically are 00:05:41.389 --> 00:05:43.790 the NOAA forecasters highlighting as the primary 00:05:43.790 --> 00:05:46.170 dangers in these zones? What should people be 00:05:46.170 --> 00:05:49.050 looking out for? Their warning of three primary 00:05:49.050 --> 00:05:51.410 dangers that travelers and residents absolutely 00:05:51.410 --> 00:05:55.350 must heed. First, significant and widespread 00:05:55.350 --> 00:05:57.670 urban roadway flooding. So this isn't just puddles? 00:05:58.050 --> 00:06:00.589 No, this isn't just standing water. We are talking 00:06:00.589 --> 00:06:03.689 about major arteries, underpasses, and streets 00:06:03.689 --> 00:06:06.629 becoming completely impassable, potentially sweeping 00:06:06.629 --> 00:06:09.699 cars away. This is just a nightmarish scenario 00:06:09.699 --> 00:06:12.839 during peak travel, particularly as people are 00:06:12.839 --> 00:06:14.759 rushing home on Christmas Eve. OK, what's the 00:06:14.759 --> 00:06:17.439 second danger? Second. And this is perhaps the 00:06:17.439 --> 00:06:20.100 most dangerous. For those who live near hillsides, 00:06:20.699 --> 00:06:23.920 there is a high risk of major rock slides, mudslides, 00:06:24.079 --> 00:06:26.000 and debris flow. Especially in the burn score 00:06:26.000 --> 00:06:28.600 areas, I imagine. Exactly. Especially in areas 00:06:28.600 --> 00:06:30.819 that have experienced wildfires in recent years. 00:06:31.480 --> 00:06:33.899 The ground there is stripped of vegetation, and 00:06:33.899 --> 00:06:36.189 it just can't absorb the water. The water runs 00:06:36.189 --> 00:06:38.829 off immediately, carrying tons of mud and rock 00:06:38.829 --> 00:06:41.709 down the canyons. It makes travel exceptionally 00:06:41.709 --> 00:06:44.370 dangerous, particularly on mountain passes, like 00:06:44.370 --> 00:06:46.529 those leading into the Angeles National Forest. 00:06:46.750 --> 00:06:49.629 And the third danger. Rapid rises in creeks, 00:06:49.790 --> 00:06:52.889 streams, and rivers. They anticipate these flows 00:06:52.889 --> 00:06:56.050 will swell so rapidly that it will likely require 00:06:56.050 --> 00:06:59.329 swift water rescues. And we have to pause here 00:06:59.329 --> 00:07:02.089 and acknowledge the real -world danger. We have 00:07:02.089 --> 00:07:04.810 already seen the tragic result of this type of 00:07:04.810 --> 00:07:07.170 system. with a fatality over the weekend up in 00:07:07.170 --> 00:07:09.649 Redding. One person died after being stranded 00:07:09.649 --> 00:07:11.930 in their car during previous flooding. That's 00:07:11.930 --> 00:07:14.810 just a tragic reminder. It is. A moving body 00:07:14.810 --> 00:07:17.329 of water just six inches deep can sweep an adult 00:07:17.329 --> 00:07:20.410 off their feet. Two feet can float an SUV. This 00:07:20.410 --> 00:07:23.149 high -risk warning is basically a plea to stay 00:07:23.149 --> 00:07:25.649 indoors. That urgency really needs to be heard 00:07:25.649 --> 00:07:27.670 loud and clear. What are the people on the ground, 00:07:27.769 --> 00:07:29.629 I mean the California Highway Patrol, what are 00:07:29.629 --> 00:07:31.990 they advising travelers right now? Their advice 00:07:31.990 --> 00:07:35.430 is unambiguous and it's critical. If you do not 00:07:35.430 --> 00:07:36.910 absolutely need to be on the roads, you should 00:07:36.910 --> 00:07:39.370 stay off the streets and freeways from Tuesday 00:07:39.370 --> 00:07:41.230 night through Christmas Day. Just stay home. 00:07:41.449 --> 00:07:44.329 Just stay home. The CHP cites the frequency of 00:07:44.329 --> 00:07:47.069 crashes involving center dividers and drivers 00:07:47.069 --> 00:07:49.899 losing control in strong rain. as the main reason. 00:07:50.300 --> 00:07:52.720 When visibility drops to near zero and you hit 00:07:52.720 --> 00:07:55.579 a patch of standing water at speed, you know, 00:07:55.779 --> 00:07:58.079 hydroplaning is instant. It's a life safety issue, 00:07:58.199 --> 00:08:00.259 not just an inconvenience. Exactly. It's not 00:08:00.259 --> 00:08:03.040 a delay issue. The storm makes driving conditions 00:08:03.040 --> 00:08:05.439 exceptionally hazardous and the risk of being 00:08:05.439 --> 00:08:08.079 caught in a slide or flood is simply too high 00:08:08.079 --> 00:08:10.329 to ignore. The storm sounds catastrophic enough 00:08:10.329 --> 00:08:12.230 just listing the flooding in the slides, but 00:08:12.230 --> 00:08:14.970 you mentioned an almost unbelievable element 00:08:14.970 --> 00:08:18.089 to this forecast. The rare threat of tornadoes 00:08:18.089 --> 00:08:22.269 and water spouts in California in December. How 00:08:22.269 --> 00:08:24.129 does that happen? This is truly extraordinary, 00:08:24.129 --> 00:08:26.370 and it really speaks to the volatile energy that's 00:08:26.370 --> 00:08:28.850 embedded within this atmospheric river. Now, 00:08:29.050 --> 00:08:30.850 while late December is technically the heart 00:08:30.850 --> 00:08:33.470 of California's modern tornado season, I mean, 00:08:33.529 --> 00:08:36.169 the state averages about nine per year, mostly 00:08:36.169 --> 00:08:39.240 brief coastal winter events. This specific alignment 00:08:39.240 --> 00:08:41.139 of atmosphere conditions is setting the stage 00:08:41.139 --> 00:08:43.200 for potential water spouts and brief tornadoes 00:08:43.200 --> 00:08:46.039 along the coast. And not just for one day, from 00:08:46.039 --> 00:08:48.679 Tuesday night right through Friday. A four -day 00:08:48.679 --> 00:08:52.100 window? That seems unprecedented for that region. 00:08:52.259 --> 00:08:54.580 It's very, very unusual. So what's the atmospheric 00:08:54.580 --> 00:08:56.779 recipe that creates this kind of instability 00:08:56.779 --> 00:08:58.940 over California? It all comes down to the deep 00:08:58.940 --> 00:09:02.000 dynamics of the incoming trough. The system is 00:09:02.000 --> 00:09:04.960 pulling in not just moisture, but also warm unstable 00:09:04.960 --> 00:09:08.350 air well ahead of the cold front. Then, as that 00:09:08.350 --> 00:09:11.049 cold front sweeps through, it provides intense 00:09:11.049 --> 00:09:13.570 lift and wind shear. That's the change in wind 00:09:13.570 --> 00:09:15.710 speed and direction with height, and that is 00:09:15.710 --> 00:09:18.289 the engine for rotation. So you need that contrast 00:09:18.289 --> 00:09:20.429 between the air masses. You absolutely do, and 00:09:20.429 --> 00:09:22.509 that is exactly what this intense Pacific storm 00:09:22.509 --> 00:09:25.070 is providing. I saw a quote from Daniel Swain, 00:09:25.250 --> 00:09:27.710 a climate scientist at UC Agriculture and Natural 00:09:27.710 --> 00:09:30.350 Resources, and he said this is the most favorable 00:09:30.350 --> 00:09:33.250 setup for more than a couple water spouts brief 00:09:33.250 --> 00:09:36.330 tornadoes he's seen in quite some time. Why is 00:09:36.330 --> 00:09:39.190 that specific phrasing so important? It speaks 00:09:39.190 --> 00:09:42.370 to the confidence in the ingredients. Forecasters 00:09:42.370 --> 00:09:44.870 aren't just seeing a general possibility. They 00:09:44.870 --> 00:09:47.090 are seeing multiple elements align perfectly. 00:09:47.769 --> 00:09:49.789 The National Weather Service Storm Prediction 00:09:49.789 --> 00:09:52.330 Center was so confident in the potential for 00:09:52.330 --> 00:09:54.909 these cells that they placed San Francisco in 00:09:54.909 --> 00:09:58.330 a rare marginal risk for severe thunderstorms 00:09:58.330 --> 00:10:01.129 three days in advance. Three days out for San 00:10:01.129 --> 00:10:03.850 Francisco. That's a huge move. A huge move. We're 00:10:03.850 --> 00:10:06.029 talking about the first time the agency had reportedly 00:10:06.029 --> 00:10:08.490 done that for the city in at least a decade. 00:10:08.789 --> 00:10:10.950 They just don't take that step unless they see 00:10:10.950 --> 00:10:13.330 a high degree of certainty in the sheer instability, 00:10:13.990 --> 00:10:16.450 even if the overall probability remains low. 00:10:16.929 --> 00:10:19.769 So where exactly is the highest risk concentrated 00:10:19.769 --> 00:10:22.610 and when should people be most vigilant? The 00:10:22.610 --> 00:10:24.409 risk comes in multiple ways, which is what makes 00:10:24.409 --> 00:10:26.490 it so persistent. The initial coastal threat 00:10:26.490 --> 00:10:28.649 runs from Crescent City and Del Norte County 00:10:28.649 --> 00:10:30.769 all the way down to Santa Barbara. That kicks 00:10:30.769 --> 00:10:32.730 off Tuesday night as the cold front approaches. 00:10:32.850 --> 00:10:35.330 And then it moves inland. That threat expands 00:10:35.330 --> 00:10:38.009 toward Los Angeles on Wednesday. as the line 00:10:38.009 --> 00:10:40.730 of storms moves eastward. It'll bring with it 00:10:40.730 --> 00:10:43.409 heavy downpours and erratic, potentially rotating 00:10:43.409 --> 00:10:46.870 winds. Coastal areas are most likely to see water 00:10:46.870 --> 00:10:49.250 spouts come ashore and briefly become, you know, 00:10:49.490 --> 00:10:52.690 land spouts. But what about inland, the Central 00:10:52.690 --> 00:10:55.309 Valley? Right, there is a crucial window for 00:10:55.309 --> 00:10:57.970 the Central Valley. Wednesday afternoon presents 00:10:57.970 --> 00:11:00.490 the highest risk for severe thunderstorms inland. 00:11:01.210 --> 00:11:03.470 The peak tornado risk runs from roughly Chico 00:11:03.470 --> 00:11:06.070 down to Fresno. And why there, specifically? 00:11:06.269 --> 00:11:08.610 It's because the Central Valley is flatter and 00:11:08.610 --> 00:11:11.090 warmer, and if we get any breaks in the clouds 00:11:11.090 --> 00:11:13.970 that allow for even brief sunshine, that solar 00:11:13.970 --> 00:11:16.269 heating provides the necessary instability right 00:11:16.269 --> 00:11:19.289 at the surface to fuel stronger storms. Let's 00:11:19.289 --> 00:11:21.750 be realistic about the severity here. The overall 00:11:21.750 --> 00:11:24.129 risk for any one person is low, but the implications 00:11:24.129 --> 00:11:26.779 are high if it does happen. What's the actual 00:11:26.779 --> 00:11:29.639 likelihood for any single location? The overall 00:11:29.639 --> 00:11:31.820 risk is low for any single point. We're looking 00:11:31.820 --> 00:11:34.000 at about a two to five percent chance of a tornado 00:11:34.000 --> 00:11:37.340 within 25 miles on Wednesday. But again, the 00:11:37.340 --> 00:11:39.759 fact that the threat is persistent, multi -day, 00:11:39.960 --> 00:11:42.559 and covers such a wide geographic area is what 00:11:42.559 --> 00:11:44.620 makes it dangerous for travelers moving across 00:11:44.620 --> 00:11:47.620 the state. Even brief weak tornadoes can cause 00:11:47.620 --> 00:11:51.000 damage. You know, flip RVs or down trees onto 00:11:51.000 --> 00:11:53.080 roads. And what are the accompanying hazards? 00:11:53.200 --> 00:11:55.929 It's not just tornadoes, right? No, alongside 00:11:55.929 --> 00:11:58.330 the potential funnel clouds, the National Weather 00:11:58.330 --> 00:12:00.649 Service is also warning of quarter -size hail, 00:12:01.309 --> 00:12:03.549 which is extremely rare for a California winter 00:12:03.549 --> 00:12:06.730 storm damaging straight -line wind gusts and 00:12:06.730 --> 00:12:09.610 frequent cloud -to -ground lightning. So while 00:12:09.610 --> 00:12:12.230 the flooding and the non -tornadic winds pose 00:12:12.230 --> 00:12:14.669 a greater overall risk to the most travelers, 00:12:15.269 --> 00:12:19.450 this tornado threat adds a highly volatile and 00:12:19.450 --> 00:12:21.789 unpredictable element to the forecast this week. 00:12:22.009 --> 00:12:23.830 While the valleys are drowning and the coast 00:12:23.830 --> 00:12:25.850 is dodging waterspouts, the mountains are going 00:12:25.850 --> 00:12:28.190 to be absolutely hammered with snow, which is, 00:12:28.190 --> 00:12:29.990 I guess, a mixed blessing right before a major 00:12:29.990 --> 00:12:32.970 ski holiday. What are the forecasts showing for 00:12:32.970 --> 00:12:35.259 the Sierra Nevada? The Sierra Nevada is expected 00:12:35.259 --> 00:12:37.600 to see what forecasters are calling a prolonged 00:12:37.600 --> 00:12:40.059 heavy snow event. Which is good for the snowpack, 00:12:40.399 --> 00:12:43.080 long term. Oh, this is exactly what the California 00:12:43.080 --> 00:12:45.539 snowpack needs for long term water resources. 00:12:46.320 --> 00:12:48.779 The projections suggest a solid three to six 00:12:48.779 --> 00:12:51.840 foot snow event for the high Sierra and localized 00:12:51.840 --> 00:12:54.379 totals could be even higher at the highest peaks. 00:12:54.600 --> 00:12:57.580 Three to six feet. And the water content is just 00:12:57.580 --> 00:12:59.299 staggering. When you look at the liquid equivalent, 00:12:59.360 --> 00:13:00.980 the amount of water this system is carrying, 00:13:01.500 --> 00:13:04.220 we were talking about totals exceeding 15 to 00:13:04.220 --> 00:13:07.419 20 inches in the high terrain of Northern California. 00:13:08.100 --> 00:13:10.820 That sounds fantastic for the spring water supply, 00:13:11.059 --> 00:13:13.720 but absolutely disastrous for anyone trying to 00:13:13.720 --> 00:13:16.620 travel. Precisely. This means road closures, 00:13:16.809 --> 00:13:19.509 likely for several days, along critical arteries 00:13:19.509 --> 00:13:22.269 like Highway 50 and Interstate 80 over Donner 00:13:22.269 --> 00:13:25.049 Pass. We're talking about blizzard -like conditions, 00:13:25.330 --> 00:13:27.570 whiteouts, and conditions treacherous enough 00:13:27.570 --> 00:13:29.769 that the California Highway Patrol will impose 00:13:29.769 --> 00:13:32.470 strict chain controls. Travel will be almost 00:13:32.470 --> 00:13:34.529 impossible. Especially through Christmas Day 00:13:34.529 --> 00:13:36.789 and the day after. Absolutely. If you haven't 00:13:36.789 --> 00:13:38.610 crossed the Sierra by Tuesday afternoon, you 00:13:38.610 --> 00:13:41.029 are likely stuck until Friday or Saturday. How 00:13:41.029 --> 00:13:44.049 does that compare to the Rockies, say, in Utah? 00:13:44.279 --> 00:13:46.740 I know they've been struggling with unusual warmth 00:13:46.740 --> 00:13:49.419 and limited snow recently, which led to some 00:13:49.419 --> 00:13:52.620 event cancellations. Yeah, Utah presents a very 00:13:52.620 --> 00:13:55.740 complicated picture for skiers. It really demonstrates 00:13:55.740 --> 00:13:58.539 the difficult, schizophrenic nature of this storm. 00:13:59.379 --> 00:14:01.899 The multi -day Christmas storm is hitting the 00:14:01.899 --> 00:14:04.940 Wattsatch Range, but it starts warm. Starts warm 00:14:04.940 --> 00:14:08.220 with rain. With rain. Rain is actually forecast 00:14:08.220 --> 00:14:11.139 to push up near 10 ,000 feet on Christmas Eve. 00:14:11.419 --> 00:14:14.539 That warm rain at high elevations is catastrophic 00:14:14.539 --> 00:14:17.679 for the existing snow base. It compacts it, melts 00:14:17.679 --> 00:14:20.539 it, and turns it into concrete. And this is after 00:14:20.539 --> 00:14:22.419 they already had to move the Deer Valley World 00:14:22.419 --> 00:14:24.759 Cup events. Exactly. This follows that general 00:14:24.759 --> 00:14:27.500 trend of warm weather and limited snow that already 00:14:27.500 --> 00:14:29.600 forced those prestigious events to be moved to 00:14:29.600 --> 00:14:32.759 the East Coast due to insufficient base. So anyone 00:14:32.759 --> 00:14:34.980 flying into Salt Lake City hoping for a white 00:14:34.980 --> 00:14:36.799 Christmas ski trip is going to be disappointed, 00:14:36.919 --> 00:14:39.429 at least initially. Disappointed. and likely 00:14:39.429 --> 00:14:41.830 dealing with a very messy mix of rain and slush 00:14:41.830 --> 00:14:44.929 at Mid Mountain. However, there is a silver lining 00:14:44.929 --> 00:14:46.990 later in the forecast as the pattern breaks. 00:14:47.389 --> 00:14:49.250 Much colder air is expected to finally arrive 00:14:49.250 --> 00:14:51.929 Friday into Saturday after that initial warm 00:14:51.929 --> 00:14:54.610 pulse moves through and dumps its liquid. When 00:14:54.610 --> 00:14:57.610 that deep cold finally settles in, the Wasatch 00:14:57.610 --> 00:15:00.529 Range, the areas around Park City and Stowbird, 00:15:01.049 --> 00:15:04.450 gets a legitimate shot at accumulating 8 to 16 00:15:04.450 --> 00:15:08.360 inches of fresh, dry, skiable snow. So if you're 00:15:08.360 --> 00:15:10.039 traveling to Utah, the beginning of the week 00:15:10.039 --> 00:15:12.379 is messy and warm, but the end of the week and 00:15:12.379 --> 00:15:14.120 the following weekend should be much better. 00:15:14.519 --> 00:15:17.139 Much better, colder, true winter conditions. 00:15:17.379 --> 00:15:19.779 You just have to survive the initial deluge. 00:15:20.139 --> 00:15:22.320 All right, let's pivot now to the exact opposite 00:15:22.320 --> 00:15:25.120 problem dominating the majority of the map. If 00:15:25.120 --> 00:15:28.000 the West is dealing with a major, potentially 00:15:28.000 --> 00:15:30.860 catastrophic winter storm, the Central and Eastern 00:15:30.860 --> 00:15:33.929 U .S. are having anything but. It is a full -on 00:15:33.929 --> 00:15:36.409 heat wave, which sounds absolutely unbelievable 00:15:36.409 --> 00:15:38.429 for late December. It does. We're talking about 00:15:38.429 --> 00:15:40.409 people potentially needing air conditioning to 00:15:40.409 --> 00:15:42.870 enjoy Christmas dinner. It's the great meteorological 00:15:42.870 --> 00:15:45.250 irony of this holiday season. Forget about a 00:15:45.250 --> 00:15:47.309 traditional white Christmas across most of the 00:15:47.309 --> 00:15:50.450 continental U .S. Much of America will experience 00:15:50.450 --> 00:15:53.029 a white -hot Christmas. Forecasters are projecting 00:15:53.029 --> 00:15:56.389 that Christmas 2025 will rank as one of the warmest 00:15:56.389 --> 00:15:59.289 on record across a massive swath of the country, 00:15:59.710 --> 00:16:01.789 stretching from the high plains all the way to 00:16:01.789 --> 00:16:04.330 the Atlantic coast. And this isn't just mild 00:16:04.330 --> 00:16:06.190 either. We're looking at temperatures that are 00:16:06.190 --> 00:16:08.870 going to shatter previous high marks set decades 00:16:08.870 --> 00:16:11.269 ago. Let's put some specific numbers on this. 00:16:11.570 --> 00:16:14.289 Where exactly will travelers and residents be 00:16:14.289 --> 00:16:16.840 sweating while opening gifts? The records are 00:16:16.840 --> 00:16:19.279 falling across a wide, geographically diverse 00:16:19.279 --> 00:16:23.240 area. For Christmas Day, December 25th, Dallas 00:16:23.240 --> 00:16:25.720 is expected to hit a high of 80 degrees Fahrenheit. 00:16:26.080 --> 00:16:29.320 80 degrees in Dallas on Christmas. Which would 00:16:29.320 --> 00:16:31.679 break the recent record set just back in 2021. 00:16:32.279 --> 00:16:34.679 But it's not just Dallas. Lawton, Oklahoma is 00:16:34.679 --> 00:16:36.720 also forecast for 80 degrees on Christmas Day. 00:16:36.840 --> 00:16:39.500 That would shatter their previous record of 76 00:16:39.500 --> 00:16:41.679 from 2021. And it's not just Christmas Day, right? 00:16:41.759 --> 00:16:44.120 This lasts for a few days. It does. Booneville, 00:16:44.120 --> 00:16:46.120 Arkansas, and Oklahoma City are expected to hit 00:16:46.120 --> 00:16:48.059 similar highs around 80 on Christmas Day and 00:16:48.059 --> 00:16:50.360 the following day, December 26. I mean, think 00:16:50.360 --> 00:16:53.399 about that. 80 degrees on December 26 in Oklahoma. 00:16:53.700 --> 00:16:56.000 That feels less like winter and more like a premature 00:16:56.000 --> 00:16:58.679 spring day. And this heat is pushing far north 00:16:58.679 --> 00:17:01.340 and east, too. It is. Even cities much further 00:17:01.340 --> 00:17:03.700 north than Emland are affected. Yeah. Denver, 00:17:03.720 --> 00:17:06.859 Colorado, has a potential high of 69 degrees 00:17:06.859 --> 00:17:09.400 on Christmas Day. Which is a record. It ties 00:17:09.400 --> 00:17:13.539 or breaks a record that stood since 2005. Pueblo, 00:17:14.220 --> 00:17:16.839 Colorado, could hit 71, breaking a record set 00:17:16.839 --> 00:17:21.240 way back in 1971. Wow, 1971. And even into the 00:17:21.240 --> 00:17:23.380 Southeast, places like Macon, Georgia, are looking 00:17:23.380 --> 00:17:27.220 at a potential high of 77 on Christmas Day. When 00:17:27.220 --> 00:17:30.099 you look at the data for the full week, Dozens 00:17:30.099 --> 00:17:32.400 of locations from Texas to the mid -Atlantic 00:17:32.400 --> 00:17:34.579 are forecast to see high temperatures in the 00:17:34.579 --> 00:17:37.339 upper 70s or low 80s. So the U .S. is effectively 00:17:37.339 --> 00:17:39.000 running the air conditioning for the holidays. 00:17:39.099 --> 00:17:41.759 In many places, yes. To put this incredible pervasive 00:17:41.759 --> 00:17:43.799 warmth into context, let's look specifically 00:17:43.799 --> 00:17:46.400 at Colorado. It's an interesting case because 00:17:46.400 --> 00:17:48.799 it's seeing a record high one day and then maybe 00:17:48.799 --> 00:17:52.059 snow the next. It really embodies this year's 00:17:52.059 --> 00:17:54.720 climate extremes. How does this late December 00:17:54.720 --> 00:17:57.519 warmth fit into the larger climate picture of 00:17:57.519 --> 00:18:01.180 2025 for that state? Colorado serves as a crucial 00:18:01.180 --> 00:18:03.900 microcosm for the accelerating warming trend 00:18:03.900 --> 00:18:06.579 we are seeing globally. The data confirms that 00:18:06.579 --> 00:18:09.819 2025 was one of the warmest ever years in Colorado. 00:18:10.740 --> 00:18:13.319 Through November, it ranked as the ninth warmest 00:18:13.319 --> 00:18:16.960 year overall in the 131 years of recorded weather 00:18:16.960 --> 00:18:20.819 data they possess. Ninth warmest. But the real 00:18:20.819 --> 00:18:23.220 story is the acceleration, isn't it? It's the 00:18:23.220 --> 00:18:26.349 acceleration. State climatologist Russ Schumacher 00:18:26.349 --> 00:18:28.650 pointed out that eight out of the 10 warmest 00:18:28.650 --> 00:18:31.069 years in Colorado have occurred since 2012. Wait, 00:18:31.109 --> 00:18:33.130 say that again. Eight of the 10 warmest years 00:18:33.130 --> 00:18:36.970 have happened since 2012. That's a stunning acceleration. 00:18:37.390 --> 00:18:40.529 That's not a gradual, gentle trend anymore. It 00:18:40.529 --> 00:18:42.990 speaks to the consistent underlying warming driven 00:18:42.990 --> 00:18:45.230 by climate change that researchers are quite 00:18:45.230 --> 00:18:47.930 clear about. The warmer baseline air makes these 00:18:47.930 --> 00:18:50.789 specific record -shattering events much easier 00:18:50.789 --> 00:18:53.190 to achieve. It's a shorter leap to get to a record 00:18:53.190 --> 00:18:56.369 high. Exactly. If the average December high starts 00:18:56.369 --> 00:18:58.990 at 40 degrees, getting to 70 is a massive leap. 00:18:59.450 --> 00:19:02.329 If the new baseline is 50, getting to 70 is much 00:19:02.329 --> 00:19:04.670 simpler for a strong high pressure system to 00:19:04.670 --> 00:19:08.049 manage. And 2025 in Colorado wasn't just warm, 00:19:08.170 --> 00:19:11.049 it was marked by volatility, wasn't it? Absolutely. 00:19:11.430 --> 00:19:14.170 The year was marked by truly stunning heat extremes 00:19:14.170 --> 00:19:17.450 earlier. Denver had a record high of 83 degrees 00:19:17.450 --> 00:19:20.509 on November 11th. That broke the all -time record 00:19:20.509 --> 00:19:23.890 high for the entire month. 83 in November. And 00:19:23.890 --> 00:19:25.950 over the summer, we saw the hottest day of the 00:19:25.950 --> 00:19:28.329 year on August 7th, when both Los Animas and 00:19:28.329 --> 00:19:31.990 Lamar topped out at 109 degrees. And this volatility 00:19:31.990 --> 00:19:35.210 extends to moisture too, right? This split personality. 00:19:35.529 --> 00:19:38.170 It does. While the west side of the state experienced 00:19:38.170 --> 00:19:41.309 ongoing long -term drought, the east side saw 00:19:41.309 --> 00:19:43.769 record -high rainfall and intense flash flooding. 00:19:44.089 --> 00:19:47.190 We had the wettest day in Denver on August 10th 00:19:47.190 --> 00:19:49.630 with nearly one and a half inches of rain, but 00:19:49.630 --> 00:19:52.049 the highest one day precipitation statewide was 00:19:52.049 --> 00:19:55.410 over five inches at Walsh on August 30th. That 00:19:55.410 --> 00:19:58.170 led to catastrophic local flooding. So this split 00:19:58.170 --> 00:20:00.250 precipitation pattern coupled with the consistent 00:20:00.250 --> 00:20:02.710 warmth really defines the chaotic volatility 00:20:02.710 --> 00:20:04.730 of the year for Colorado. And it mirrors the 00:20:04.730 --> 00:20:06.630 national split we are discussing right now. Okay, 00:20:06.710 --> 00:20:09.470 so we have floods, slides, and storms in the 00:20:09.470 --> 00:20:12.619 West. and records being obliterated by this incredible 00:20:12.619 --> 00:20:15.920 heat in the Central and Eastern U .S. What is 00:20:15.920 --> 00:20:19.299 the fundamental mechanism linking these two extreme 00:20:19.299 --> 00:20:22.079 and contrasting patterns? How does the West Coast 00:20:22.079 --> 00:20:24.880 storm cause the East Coast heat? The systems 00:20:24.880 --> 00:20:27.809 are inextricably linked. It's all about the position 00:20:27.809 --> 00:20:30.289 and the behavior of the jet stream, which is 00:20:30.289 --> 00:20:33.109 essentially the fast -moving river of air high 00:20:33.109 --> 00:20:35.269 up that dictates where storms go. Like a garden 00:20:35.269 --> 00:20:36.950 hose. Think of it like a garden hose, exactly. 00:20:37.490 --> 00:20:39.950 Normally it flows relatively straight, but right 00:20:39.950 --> 00:20:43.210 now it is performing a massive lazy wave across 00:20:43.210 --> 00:20:45.809 the North American continent. A wave? And the 00:20:45.809 --> 00:20:47.930 atmospheric rivers that are drenching California 00:20:47.930 --> 00:20:50.589 are riding the first part of that lazy wave, 00:20:50.650 --> 00:20:52.930 a dramatic deep dip in the jet stream near the 00:20:52.930 --> 00:20:55.509 West Coast. That dip allows the storm to pull 00:20:55.509 --> 00:20:58.329 immense moisture from the tropical Pacific. But 00:20:58.329 --> 00:21:00.130 this energy transfer doesn't just stop at the 00:21:00.130 --> 00:21:02.789 coast. As the jet stream recovers from that massive 00:21:02.789 --> 00:21:05.849 southward plunge, it snaps back northward and 00:21:05.849 --> 00:21:08.789 forms a corresponding large, strong ridge of 00:21:08.789 --> 00:21:11.269 high pressure. So the dip creates the storm in 00:21:11.269 --> 00:21:14.109 the west and the snapback ridge creates the heat 00:21:14.109 --> 00:21:16.789 in the east. You've got it. Yeah. That high pressure 00:21:16.789 --> 00:21:19.509 ridge anchored over the Gulf of Mexico, it acts 00:21:19.509 --> 00:21:21.769 like a warm air pump that just won't turn off. 00:21:21.890 --> 00:21:24.029 It is sending vast amounts of warm air north 00:21:24.029 --> 00:21:26.430 and east, dominating the central and eastern 00:21:26.430 --> 00:21:29.150 states. Yeah. And crucially, it's preventing 00:21:29.150 --> 00:21:31.990 any intrusion of Arctic air from Canada from 00:21:31.990 --> 00:21:33.789 settling in for the holidays. Like a shield. 00:21:33.970 --> 00:21:36.609 It's a massive shield. And the contrast you see, 00:21:36.990 --> 00:21:39.470 the extreme rainfall in L .A. and the 80 degree 00:21:39.470 --> 00:21:42.150 temperatures in Dallas is all being orchestrated 00:21:42.150 --> 00:21:45.730 by this dramatic amplified jet stream pattern. 00:21:46.170 --> 00:21:48.809 It's effectively a continental scale atmospheric 00:21:48.809 --> 00:21:51.210 seesaw. This pattern feels like it goes beyond 00:21:51.210 --> 00:21:53.490 just normal winter variability. You mentioned 00:21:53.490 --> 00:21:55.289 earlier that researchers have been working hard 00:21:55.289 --> 00:21:57.430 to link specific events to long -term climate 00:21:57.430 --> 00:22:00.329 trends. Is there concrete research linking this 00:22:00.329 --> 00:22:02.950 December warm event to human -caused climate 00:22:02.950 --> 00:22:05.890 change? Yes, there is some crucial early research 00:22:05.890 --> 00:22:08.769 that speaks directly to this. The research group 00:22:08.769 --> 00:22:12.319 Climate Central which focuses on rapid attribution 00:22:12.319 --> 00:22:14.859 techniques, has released some early findings 00:22:14.859 --> 00:22:17.599 regarding this specific December warm event. 00:22:18.099 --> 00:22:20.160 They suggest that this highly amplified high 00:22:20.160 --> 00:22:22.599 pressure setup and the resulting warm temperatures 00:22:22.599 --> 00:22:25.799 are at least two to three times more likely to 00:22:25.799 --> 00:22:28.640 occur due to human -caused carbon pollution. 00:22:29.440 --> 00:22:32.140 Let's unpack that two to three times more likely 00:22:32.140 --> 00:22:34.440 finding for a minute. What does that mean in 00:22:34.440 --> 00:22:36.539 practical terms? It doesn't mean climate change 00:22:36.539 --> 00:22:39.089 caused the weather, right? It amplified it. Right. 00:22:39.349 --> 00:22:41.750 It means that the ingredients for a warm December 00:22:41.750 --> 00:22:44.849 blast are natural. But the intensity and the 00:22:44.849 --> 00:22:46.849 extent of this warming event are being boosted 00:22:46.849 --> 00:22:49.349 significantly by the underlying change in the 00:22:49.349 --> 00:22:52.130 planet's thermodynamics. Since the global baseline 00:22:52.130 --> 00:22:54.309 temperature is higher now than it was 50 years 00:22:54.309 --> 00:22:56.849 ago, it takes less energy for a high pressure 00:22:56.849 --> 00:22:59.410 system to push the thermometer up to 80 degrees. 00:22:59.930 --> 00:23:02.329 The background air starts warmer, making the 00:23:02.329 --> 00:23:04.390 records easier to break. And the warming is more 00:23:04.390 --> 00:23:06.920 pervasive across the continent. Exactly. This 00:23:06.920 --> 00:23:09.759 link between the high pressure ridge, the amplified 00:23:09.759 --> 00:23:12.599 jet stream, and the climate change signal is 00:23:12.599 --> 00:23:15.240 why this specific pattern is so important to 00:23:15.240 --> 00:23:17.940 understand. That powerful linkage between the 00:23:17.940 --> 00:23:20.420 West's storms and the East's heat brings us to 00:23:20.420 --> 00:23:23.700 the broader seasonal context. This chaotic, immediate 00:23:23.700 --> 00:23:26.079 weather is deeply rooted in the larger climate 00:23:26.079 --> 00:23:28.539 dynamics governed by the Pacific Ocean. Let's 00:23:28.539 --> 00:23:30.500 talk about the El Nino Southern Oscillation, 00:23:30.640 --> 00:23:33.859 or ENSO, and its current state. Right. ENSO, 00:23:33.920 --> 00:23:36.519 for short, is the recurring pattern of temperature 00:23:36.519 --> 00:23:39.019 shifts in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects 00:23:39.019 --> 00:23:41.460 global weather patterns. It has two main phases, 00:23:41.940 --> 00:23:44.420 El Niño, which is the warm phase, and La Niña, 00:23:44.500 --> 00:23:46.680 which is the cool phase. What we are dealing 00:23:46.680 --> 00:23:48.680 with right now and what's driving this volatility 00:23:48.680 --> 00:23:51.799 is a La Niña winter. For listeners who may not 00:23:51.799 --> 00:23:53.720 track these cycles closely, how do we define 00:23:53.720 --> 00:23:56.200 La Niña and why does a subtle change in Pacific 00:23:56.200 --> 00:23:58.599 Ocean water temperature have such massive effects 00:23:58.599 --> 00:24:02.109 on a U .S. Christmas forecast? La Niña is characterized 00:24:02.109 --> 00:24:04.309 by cooler than average sea surface temperatures 00:24:04.309 --> 00:24:06.690 across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. 00:24:07.329 --> 00:24:10.289 And it matters enormously because the ocean temperature 00:24:10.289 --> 00:24:13.369 influences the atmosphere above it. Specifically, 00:24:13.930 --> 00:24:15.950 it changes the placement and strength of the 00:24:15.950 --> 00:24:18.529 jet stream, that river of air we just discussed. 00:24:18.569 --> 00:24:21.329 OK. In a La Niña pattern, the jet stream tends 00:24:21.329 --> 00:24:24.180 to buckle. favoring a storm track that is wetter 00:24:24.180 --> 00:24:26.279 and colder across the northern tier of the U 00:24:26.279 --> 00:24:28.720 .S. and warmer and drier across the southern 00:24:28.720 --> 00:24:31.839 tier. It sets the stage for exactly the extreme 00:24:31.839 --> 00:24:34.109 divide we are seeing this holiday week. So what's 00:24:34.109 --> 00:24:36.470 the current guidance from the National Oceanic 00:24:36.470 --> 00:24:38.789 and Atmospheric Administration on how long this 00:24:38.789 --> 00:24:42.309 cool phase is expected to last? The Climate Prediction 00:24:42.309 --> 00:24:44.690 Center within NOAA has confirmed that La Niña 00:24:44.690 --> 00:24:46.950 conditions are currently present, and they are 00:24:46.950 --> 00:24:49.089 strongly favored to persist through the peak 00:24:49.089 --> 00:24:51.509 winter months, specifically through December 00:24:51.509 --> 00:24:55.130 2025 and February 2026. So through the whole 00:24:55.130 --> 00:24:58.140 winter. But they are also signaling a likely 00:24:58.140 --> 00:25:01.359 transition to ENESO -neutral conditions by late 00:25:01.359 --> 00:25:05.619 winter or early spring in 2026. They assign it 00:25:05.619 --> 00:25:08.759 a 55 % chance of transitioning during the January 00:25:08.759 --> 00:25:11.680 through March period. So while La Nina is driving 00:25:11.680 --> 00:25:14.579 the initial chaos of winter, we could see a shift 00:25:14.579 --> 00:25:17.240 toward more variable, less predictable conditions 00:25:17.240 --> 00:25:20.119 later on. That's the idea, yes. So if the current 00:25:20.119 --> 00:25:22.559 weather divergence is an amplification of the 00:25:22.559 --> 00:25:25.700 La Nina pattern, what does a typical La Nina 00:25:25.700 --> 00:25:28.500 winter December through February mean for the 00:25:28.500 --> 00:25:31.579 rest of the U .S.? How long can travelers expect 00:25:31.579 --> 00:25:34.220 this massive temperature split to last? The current 00:25:34.220 --> 00:25:37.039 pattern is essentially La Nina at maximum volume. 00:25:37.599 --> 00:25:39.539 Generally, it results in a clear temperature 00:25:39.539 --> 00:25:41.319 split that lasts for months. Let's start with 00:25:41.319 --> 00:25:44.119 temperature. Okay, first, temperature. Warmer 00:25:44.119 --> 00:25:45.940 than average temperatures are strongly favored 00:25:45.940 --> 00:25:48.299 across the entire southern tier, stretching up 00:25:48.299 --> 00:25:50.339 the eastern seaboard and even northern Alaska. 00:25:51.079 --> 00:25:53.160 The strongest probabilities for this persistent, 00:25:53.460 --> 00:25:55.559 unseasonal warmth are in the southwest U .S. 00:25:55.599 --> 00:25:57.740 and most of Florida. Good for vacationers, I 00:25:57.740 --> 00:26:01.000 suppose. It is, but conversely, cooler than average 00:26:01.000 --> 00:26:03.240 temperatures are slightly favored in the northern 00:26:03.240 --> 00:26:06.380 tier. specifically from the Pacific Northwest 00:26:06.380 --> 00:26:09.579 across Montana, North Dakota, and into northern 00:26:09.579 --> 00:26:12.140 Minnesota. So the north is colder and wetter 00:26:12.140 --> 00:26:14.220 and the south is warmer and drier. That sounds 00:26:14.220 --> 00:26:16.480 like it reinforces the pattern for the west coast 00:26:16.480 --> 00:26:18.759 storms we just talked about. It does, and that 00:26:18.759 --> 00:26:21.279 brings us to the precipitation split. Wetter 00:26:21.279 --> 00:26:23.359 than average conditions are most likely over 00:26:23.359 --> 00:26:26.000 Montana, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern 00:26:26.000 --> 00:26:28.440 Plains, the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio 00:26:28.440 --> 00:26:31.160 River Valley. They are going to see the primary 00:26:31.160 --> 00:26:34.019 storm track focus there, which is why the Pacific 00:26:34.019 --> 00:26:36.480 Northwest is getting consistent moisture. And 00:26:36.480 --> 00:26:39.059 in contrast? In stark contrast, drier than average 00:26:39.059 --> 00:26:40.960 conditions are most likely across the southern 00:26:40.960 --> 00:26:43.880 tier states – Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, 00:26:44.299 --> 00:26:47.920 Alabama, and the far southeast U .S. This aligns 00:26:47.920 --> 00:26:50.079 perfectly with that massive high -pressure ridge 00:26:50.079 --> 00:26:52.779 and the warm air pump we discussed earlier. And 00:26:52.779 --> 00:26:54.779 this is where the long -term concerns really 00:26:54.779 --> 00:26:57.880 rise. That drier forecast for the southern tier 00:26:57.880 --> 00:27:01.059 has significant long -term implications for water 00:27:01.059 --> 00:27:04.680 resources and the ongoing drought crises, particularly 00:27:04.680 --> 00:27:07.440 in the southwest. What's the outlook showing 00:27:07.440 --> 00:27:10.000 there? Yeah, the seasonal outlook, which covers 00:27:10.000 --> 00:27:14.359 October 2025 through January Tummy 26, is quite 00:27:14.359 --> 00:27:17.440 grim regarding drought relief. Drought is expected 00:27:17.440 --> 00:27:20.440 to persist across the southwest, the deep south, 00:27:20.759 --> 00:27:22.680 and portions of the northeast. And it might get 00:27:22.680 --> 00:27:25.670 worse in some places. Yes. Forecasters are warning 00:27:25.670 --> 00:27:27.910 of the likely development of new drought conditions 00:27:27.910 --> 00:27:30.869 across the south central states, a serious concern 00:27:30.869 --> 00:27:33.309 for agriculture and water utilities there that 00:27:33.309 --> 00:27:35.329 have managed to hold on so far. Let's focus on 00:27:35.329 --> 00:27:37.289 the Colorado River Basin Crunch for a moment. 00:27:37.710 --> 00:27:40.269 How much does La Nina exacerbate that specific 00:27:40.269 --> 00:27:42.710 problem, which affects, what, 40 million people? 00:27:42.910 --> 00:27:45.150 The southwest California, Nevada, Arizona and 00:27:45.150 --> 00:27:47.690 Utah is the most consistently vulnerable region 00:27:47.690 --> 00:27:50.859 under a La Nina pattern. The cool phase increases 00:27:50.859 --> 00:27:53.119 the chance of below average precipitation here 00:27:53.119 --> 00:27:56.779 by over 50%. It makes consistent dry spells much 00:27:56.779 --> 00:27:58.579 more probable for the mountain ranges that feed 00:27:58.579 --> 00:28:00.640 the Colorado River. And they rely on that winter 00:28:00.640 --> 00:28:04.299 snowpack. Heavily. This is highly relevant when 00:28:04.299 --> 00:28:06.740 considering the ongoing water crunch in the Colorado 00:28:06.740 --> 00:28:09.660 River Basin. We know that major cities like Denver 00:28:09.660 --> 00:28:12.319 and Phoenix are already scrambling to future 00:28:12.319 --> 00:28:15.420 -proof their water supplies. Lake Mead and Lake 00:28:15.420 --> 00:28:18.900 Powell are at chronically low levels. A persistent 00:28:18.900 --> 00:28:21.500 La Niña pattern means the hope for a miracle 00:28:21.500 --> 00:28:24.500 march or a massive snowpack recovery is diminished 00:28:24.500 --> 00:28:26.960 throughout the winter season. So water shortages 00:28:26.960 --> 00:28:30.079 will likely continue to deepen in 2026. It seems 00:28:30.079 --> 00:28:33.059 very likely, yes. That's a profound long -term 00:28:33.059 --> 00:28:35.359 impact coming from the same climate dynamic that 00:28:35.359 --> 00:28:38.400 gives us 80 degree Christmas. You also mentioned 00:28:38.400 --> 00:28:40.599 specific warnings for the far southeast, like 00:28:40.599 --> 00:28:43.400 Florida. What are the concerns there beyond just 00:28:43.400 --> 00:28:46.240 being too warm? Since the La Nina pattern favors 00:28:46.240 --> 00:28:48.240 those warmer and drier conditions for the southern 00:28:48.240 --> 00:28:51.119 U .S. overall, this creates increased climatic 00:28:51.119 --> 00:28:53.960 variability and a heightened wildfire risk in 00:28:53.960 --> 00:28:55.579 regions that aren't accustomed to it in winter. 00:28:55.839 --> 00:28:58.549 Wildfire risk in winter. Right. Forecasters have 00:28:58.549 --> 00:29:00.349 already warned Florida agriculture officials 00:29:00.349 --> 00:29:03.569 to prepare for increased wildfire potential due 00:29:03.569 --> 00:29:06.029 to these drier and warmer conditions persisting 00:29:06.029 --> 00:29:08.309 throughout the winter months. So while the absence 00:29:08.309 --> 00:29:10.750 of cold is a relief for travelers, the increased 00:29:10.750 --> 00:29:13.950 risk of dryness and fire poses a serious threat 00:29:13.950 --> 00:29:17.740 to regional stability in agriculture. This meteorological 00:29:17.740 --> 00:29:20.380 division's severe flood and tornado risk in the 00:29:20.380 --> 00:29:23.160 west, record heat in the middle, and a persistent 00:29:23.160 --> 00:29:25.920 drought threat in the south is colliding head 00:29:25.920 --> 00:29:28.420 -on with the biggest travel period ever recorded. 00:29:28.900 --> 00:29:31.259 It's a logistical nightmare. Let's look at the 00:29:31.259 --> 00:29:33.819 travel volume first. The sheer number of travelers 00:29:33.819 --> 00:29:37.000 is staggering, and it underscores why this forecast 00:29:37.000 --> 00:29:41.299 is so critical. The AAA projects that 122 .4 00:29:41.299 --> 00:29:43.660 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles 00:29:43.660 --> 00:29:46.759 from home between December 20th and January 1st. 00:29:47.579 --> 00:29:50.059 122 million. To put that figure in perspective, 00:29:50.559 --> 00:29:52.579 that's roughly one -third of the entire U .S. 00:29:53.079 --> 00:29:54.559 population making a major trip. And that makes 00:29:54.559 --> 00:29:57.039 this the busiest year -end travel period on record. 00:29:57.299 --> 00:30:00.180 Officially, yes. And air travel is truly leading 00:30:00.180 --> 00:30:02.539 the charge in this surge. And that's where the 00:30:02.539 --> 00:30:05.099 weather chaos translates most quickly into human 00:30:05.099 --> 00:30:08.460 misery. Absolutely. Domestic air travel is projected 00:30:08.460 --> 00:30:12.059 to hit a record high of 8 .03 million travelers 00:30:12.059 --> 00:30:14.640 this holiday season. This is the first time that 00:30:14.640 --> 00:30:17.619 number has exceeded 8 million domestic flyers 00:30:17.619 --> 00:30:20.599 during this specific year -end period. So the 00:30:20.599 --> 00:30:22.680 system is already at its breaking point, even 00:30:22.680 --> 00:30:25.599 with perfect weather. Exactly. When air traffic 00:30:25.599 --> 00:30:27.859 control systems, airport infrastructure, and 00:30:27.859 --> 00:30:30.480 airline staffing are already operating at near 00:30:30.480 --> 00:30:33.640 100 % capacity, any significant weather event 00:30:33.980 --> 00:30:36.660 instantly throws the entire operation into gridlock. 00:30:36.839 --> 00:30:39.420 When should travelers brace for the absolute 00:30:39.420 --> 00:30:41.720 worst crowds at the airports? We need to give 00:30:41.720 --> 00:30:43.859 them some practical advice. Well, the busiest 00:30:43.859 --> 00:30:46.380 days for air travel were the Friday before Christmas, 00:30:46.500 --> 00:30:48.619 December 19th, as people rushed to get ahead 00:30:48.619 --> 00:30:51.059 of the storms, and then the upcoming Friday and 00:30:51.059 --> 00:30:54.680 Saturday after Christmas, December 26th and 27th, 00:30:54.720 --> 00:30:56.839 as the masses return home. OK, so there is a 00:30:56.839 --> 00:30:59.619 slight lull. There is. Fortunately, if you are 00:30:59.619 --> 00:31:01.559 flying on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, New Year's 00:31:01.559 --> 00:31:03.500 Eve or New Year's Day, those are expected to 00:31:03.500 --> 00:31:06.279 be the lightest travel days. But again, Light 00:31:06.279 --> 00:31:08.619 is a very relative term when we are talking about 00:31:08.619 --> 00:31:11.779 a record -breaking volume of 8 million domestic 00:31:11.779 --> 00:31:14.599 flyers. How will the extreme weather in the West 00:31:14.599 --> 00:31:17.160 translate into air travel disruption across the 00:31:17.160 --> 00:31:19.839 entire country? Because that ripple effect is 00:31:19.839 --> 00:31:22.599 what truly strands people, and that starts with 00:31:22.599 --> 00:31:25.319 LAX. It creates a direct massive threat to the 00:31:25.319 --> 00:31:27.960 major Western air hubs. Los Angeles International 00:31:27.960 --> 00:31:31.000 Airport, LAX, is set for a huge increase in traffic, 00:31:31.200 --> 00:31:33.980 but it's simultaneously right in the path of 00:31:33.980 --> 00:31:37.000 that atmospheric river. We expect the storm to 00:31:37.000 --> 00:31:40.259 impact LAX operations dramatically. It may not 00:31:40.259 --> 00:31:42.680 shut down completely, but high winds and low 00:31:42.680 --> 00:31:44.980 visibility will necessitate mandatory slowing 00:31:44.980 --> 00:31:47.240 of arrivals and departures. So widespread delays 00:31:47.240 --> 00:31:49.559 are pretty much a guarantee? It seems likely, 00:31:49.740 --> 00:31:52.519 yes. Denver International DNN is also bracing 00:31:52.519 --> 00:31:55.019 for packed terminals amidst the forecast warmth 00:31:55.019 --> 00:31:57.480 and high volume, especially as a crucial connecting 00:31:57.480 --> 00:31:59.769 point between the coasts. What about the connection 00:31:59.769 --> 00:32:02.190 hubs? The traveler's journey so often depends 00:32:02.190 --> 00:32:04.730 on a smooth connection through the massive airports 00:32:04.730 --> 00:32:06.430 in the middle of the country. And that's where 00:32:06.430 --> 00:32:09.049 the risk shifts immediately to the connectivity 00:32:09.049 --> 00:32:11.630 between the hubs and the destinations. The top 00:32:11.630 --> 00:32:13.769 domestic destinations this year are all warm 00:32:13.769 --> 00:32:18.049 locales. Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Anaheim, 00:32:18.049 --> 00:32:21.720 Los Angeles, Honolulu, and Tampa. And they are 00:32:21.720 --> 00:32:24.819 all fed by hubs like Atlanta and Dallas. They're 00:32:24.819 --> 00:32:27.500 fed by major connection hubs further east, particularly 00:32:27.500 --> 00:32:30.920 Atlanta, Hartsfield -Jackson, ATL and Dallas 00:32:30.920 --> 00:32:34.319 -Fort Worth DFW. And DFW is expecting 80 degree 00:32:34.319 --> 00:32:37.180 heat. What does that do to operations? Well, 00:32:37.279 --> 00:32:40.079 while it avoids ice and snow, DFW will be dealing 00:32:40.079 --> 00:32:42.680 with the operational strain of high heat on massive 00:32:42.680 --> 00:32:45.619 volume. Tarmac temperatures can be even higher 00:32:45.619 --> 00:32:47.960 than the air temperature, which can stress ground 00:32:47.960 --> 00:32:50.779 crews and aircraft electronics. But more Critically, 00:32:50.940 --> 00:32:53.299 the huge volume of delayed inbound flights from 00:32:53.299 --> 00:32:55.740 the storm -hit West Coast will quickly backlog 00:32:55.740 --> 00:32:58.700 the systems at ATL and DFW. Causing a cascading 00:32:58.700 --> 00:33:02.079 failure across the country. Exactly. ATL often 00:33:02.079 --> 00:33:05.720 sees over 200 ,000 passengers a day. Any weather 00:33:05.720 --> 00:33:08.240 disturbance, no matter how local, can push that 00:33:08.240 --> 00:33:10.880 terminal past its breaking point. So if a flight 00:33:10.880 --> 00:33:13.420 originating in Seattle or San Francisco is delayed 00:33:13.420 --> 00:33:16.200 or canceled due to the storm, how quickly will 00:33:16.200 --> 00:33:19.140 that impact someone flying from, say, Nashville 00:33:19.140 --> 00:33:22.259 to Orlando? The impact is almost immediate. Most 00:33:22.259 --> 00:33:24.740 major airlines operate on a spoken hub model. 00:33:25.279 --> 00:33:27.319 That means the aircraft itself is likely needed 00:33:27.319 --> 00:33:29.599 for the next leg, often a cross -country flight. 00:33:30.140 --> 00:33:32.599 If an aircraft is stuck at LAX due to wind and 00:33:32.599 --> 00:33:34.700 rain, the flight it was supposed to operate four 00:33:34.700 --> 00:33:37.740 hours later from DFW to Orlando is now missing 00:33:37.740 --> 00:33:40.059 its plane. And in a high volume scenario like 00:33:40.059 --> 00:33:42.539 this, there are no spare aircraft or spare flight 00:33:42.539 --> 00:33:44.880 crews available. Not really. That's why you need 00:33:44.880 --> 00:33:47.779 to be hyper aware that a flood warning 2000 miles 00:33:47.779 --> 00:33:50.339 away can still ruin your holiday plans. With 00:33:50.339 --> 00:33:53.559 ATL, DFW and Nashville International BNA all 00:33:53.559 --> 00:33:56.019 expecting record crowds, what is the essential 00:33:56.019 --> 00:33:58.359 practical preparation advice for those traveling 00:33:58.359 --> 00:34:00.559 through these connection points? Preparation 00:34:00.559 --> 00:34:03.680 is absolutely key. Expect crowded terminals, 00:34:04.180 --> 00:34:07.410 packed flights and inevitable delays. The airlines 00:34:07.410 --> 00:34:09.889 and airports are all repeating the same advice. 00:34:10.329 --> 00:34:12.250 Arrive at least two hours early for domestic 00:34:12.250 --> 00:34:14.989 flights and three hours for international. And 00:34:14.989 --> 00:34:17.289 even that might not be enough. It might not. 00:34:17.590 --> 00:34:19.469 But more importantly, you should download and 00:34:19.469 --> 00:34:21.949 check your airlines app constantly. Look into 00:34:21.949 --> 00:34:25.030 Trip Insurance and have a Plan B route or accommodation 00:34:25.030 --> 00:34:28.210 ready. because waiting on standby is not a strategy 00:34:28.210 --> 00:34:31.449 that works when 122 million people are traveling. 00:34:32.010 --> 00:34:34.210 Finally, left look ahead to the New Year's transition. 00:34:34.909 --> 00:34:37.349 We've been focused on the warmth, but that massive 00:34:37.349 --> 00:34:40.269 warm ridge can't last forever, especially with 00:34:40.269 --> 00:34:43.079 La Nina influencing the broader pattern. What 00:34:43.079 --> 00:34:45.440 happens as we head into the last week of 2025? 00:34:46.000 --> 00:34:47.900 The pattern is expected to pivot sharply right 00:34:47.900 --> 00:34:50.239 after Christmas, the atmospheric pressure ridge 00:34:50.239 --> 00:34:52.860 finally breaks down, and forecasters are expecting 00:34:52.860 --> 00:34:54.880 a significant temperature tumble to start the 00:34:54.880 --> 00:34:57.420 week of December 29th across the Midwest and 00:34:57.420 --> 00:34:59.739 East. Following that initial record -breaking 00:34:59.739 --> 00:35:02.559 heat wave. Right. So if you traveled out to Dallas 00:35:02.559 --> 00:35:05.139 for the 80 -degree Christmas, your trip home 00:35:05.139 --> 00:35:07.380 a few days later might require a heavy coat. 00:35:07.940 --> 00:35:10.860 What does that mean for New Year's Eve celebrations 00:35:10.860 --> 00:35:13.880 across the major cities? Will the cold air arrive 00:35:13.880 --> 00:35:16.900 in time to make things icy? Or will the persistent 00:35:16.900 --> 00:35:19.380 wet pattern cause trouble? For New Year's Eve 00:35:19.380 --> 00:35:22.380 itself, we are still tracking multiple developing 00:35:22.380 --> 00:35:24.820 storms that could impact celebrations, particularly 00:35:24.820 --> 00:35:27.840 from New York City all the way to Seattle. So 00:35:27.840 --> 00:35:30.420 Seattle and Portland are still wet? Unlikely 00:35:30.420 --> 00:35:32.599 to catch a break from the persistently wet December 00:35:32.599 --> 00:35:35.460 they've experienced. Rain is expected right around 00:35:35.460 --> 00:35:36.980 the start of the new year. But the southwest 00:35:36.980 --> 00:35:40.420 looks good. For those wanting mild weather, Phoenix, 00:35:40.780 --> 00:35:43.500 Los Angeles, and San Diego are forecast to have 00:35:43.500 --> 00:35:45.840 some of the best weather for outdoor celebrations. 00:35:46.699 --> 00:35:49.059 Dry and mild as that west coast storm finally 00:35:49.059 --> 00:35:51.420 moves out. What about South Florida? We need 00:35:51.420 --> 00:35:53.460 to watch the timing of that cold air closely. 00:35:53.820 --> 00:35:56.500 Even South Florida, a top destination like Miami, 00:35:56.599 --> 00:35:58.719 is expected to see the influence of that breaking 00:35:58.719 --> 00:36:01.760 ridge. Arctic Air is forecast to hit that area 00:36:01.760 --> 00:36:04.480 right around New Year's Eve. For how long? The 00:36:04.480 --> 00:36:07.039 cool down should only last about two days before 00:36:07.039 --> 00:36:09.099 temperatures quickly rebound. And what about 00:36:09.099 --> 00:36:11.139 road travel warnings for those driving across 00:36:11.139 --> 00:36:14.079 the Midwest after Christmas? The pivot from 70 00:36:14.079 --> 00:36:17.059 degrees to freezing can create extremely dangerous 00:36:17.059 --> 00:36:19.420 driving conditions overnight. That is exactly 00:36:19.420 --> 00:36:21.900 the concern. The transition zone will be hazardous. 00:36:22.440 --> 00:36:24.219 You have to watch out for potential slippery 00:36:24.219 --> 00:36:27.340 conditions from light freezing rain, sleet or 00:36:27.340 --> 00:36:30.340 snow late Christmas night. From North Dakota 00:36:30.340 --> 00:36:33.599 into northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and 00:36:33.599 --> 00:36:36.389 Michigan. Black ice becomes a major threat. When 00:36:36.389 --> 00:36:39.610 rain or very mild air precedes a sharp cold front, 00:36:40.230 --> 00:36:42.070 any residual moisture on the pavement can freeze 00:36:42.070 --> 00:36:44.050 almost instantly when the temperature tumbles. 00:36:44.530 --> 00:36:46.789 It leads to black ice and immediate road chaos. 00:36:47.269 --> 00:36:49.489 It's a major final hurdle for holiday travelers 00:36:49.489 --> 00:36:52.670 trying to get home safely. To summarize the key 00:36:52.670 --> 00:36:55.590 takeaway for you, our listener, we are witnessing 00:36:55.590 --> 00:36:58.969 an absolutely unprecedented holiday season defined 00:36:58.969 --> 00:37:01.710 by a massive weather divergence across the continental 00:37:01.710 --> 00:37:04.389 United States. We have high and flooding and 00:37:04.389 --> 00:37:07.210 a rare tornado threat in the West caused by an 00:37:07.210 --> 00:37:10.190 intense atmospheric river colliding with a record 00:37:10.190 --> 00:37:12.809 breaking climate enhanced heat wave in the central 00:37:12.809 --> 00:37:16.349 and eastern states. All of this chaos is driven 00:37:16.349 --> 00:37:19.610 by the amplified La Nina pattern and the persistent 00:37:19.610 --> 00:37:22.349 long term warming trends confirmed by climate 00:37:22.349 --> 00:37:26.550 researchers and it's unfolding as a record 122 00:37:26.550 --> 00:37:31.550 million Americans try to travel. driven by that 00:37:31.550 --> 00:37:34.070 atmospheric wave pattern, really highlights the 00:37:34.070 --> 00:37:36.630 intense volatility in our climate today. And 00:37:36.630 --> 00:37:38.750 while we expect a brief Arctic snap to hit the 00:37:38.750 --> 00:37:40.989 Midwest and East around the New Year's transition, 00:37:41.590 --> 00:37:43.070 models are already suggesting that the pattern 00:37:43.070 --> 00:37:45.230 will rebound quickly. So the warmth comes back. 00:37:45.389 --> 00:37:47.030 The first half of January, which is typically 00:37:47.030 --> 00:37:49.369 the coldest time of the year, is expected to 00:37:49.369 --> 00:37:51.489 turn warmer than average across much of the country 00:37:51.489 --> 00:37:54.210 once again, especially east of the Rockies. That 00:37:54.210 --> 00:37:56.690 potential for continued warmth and snow shortfalls 00:37:56.690 --> 00:37:59.690 well into February is a significant provocative 00:37:59.690 --> 00:38:03.050 thought. It reinforces the long -term trend seen 00:38:03.050 --> 00:38:06.610 in 2025's heat records and suggests that the 00:38:06.610 --> 00:38:08.670 traditional depths of winter may be increasingly 00:38:08.670 --> 00:38:11.869 elusive outside of the core northern wet zones. 00:38:12.329 --> 00:38:15.039 That's the crucial insight. It means that while 00:38:15.039 --> 00:38:18.019 you may get temporary winter relief, the climate 00:38:18.019 --> 00:38:20.639 signal for consistent warmth remains dominant. 00:38:21.000 --> 00:38:22.780 We're no longer just measuring the weather, we 00:38:22.780 --> 00:38:24.820 are measuring the volatility and the long -term 00:38:24.820 --> 00:38:27.239 shift. That's right. You've been listening to 00:38:27.239 --> 00:38:29.500 Meteorology Matters, created by meteorologist 00:38:29.500 --> 00:38:32.780 Rob Jones. We want to hear from you. What stands 00:38:32.780 --> 00:38:35.420 out to you about this chaotic forecast, and how 00:38:35.420 --> 00:38:38.400 is it impacting your holiday travel plans? Don't 00:38:38.400 --> 00:38:40.420 stay quiet, jump on our socials and let us know 00:38:40.420 --> 00:38:42.769 what you think. Be sure to like, follow, drop 00:38:42.769 --> 00:38:45.130 a comment, and rate the podcast. You can follow 00:38:45.130 --> 00:38:48.369 meteorologist Rob Jones on Instagram at Meteorologist, 00:38:48.570 --> 00:38:51.510 on TikTok at TVMeteorologist, and on YouTube, 00:38:51.809 --> 00:38:53.909 follow Rob Jones Hurricane, where you can also 00:38:53.909 --> 00:38:55.909 find the Meteorology Matters podcast playlist. 00:38:56.510 --> 00:38:58.750 Thanks for listening. And remember, the weather 00:38:58.750 --> 00:39:01.710 always matters. Merry Christmas and happy holidays 00:39:01.710 --> 00:39:02.150 to all.