It is December 23rd, 2025. And if you are planning
on traveling anywhere in the United States over
the next week or so, or honestly, if you live
anywhere between Seattle and Miami, you really,
really have to listen to this forecast immediately.
Yeah, that's right. We're sitting on the precipice
of what looks to be the busiest holiday travel
period in recorded history. And the weather map
is just it's split right down the middle with
chaos and extremes. Absolutely. This forecast
has some, you know, incredibly far reaching impacts
across the whole country for everyone this holiday
season. Especially if you're going to be traveling.
Welcome to Meteorology Matters, the podcast that
dives deep into the science, chaos and stories
behind the weather that shapes our world. This
show was created by meteorologist Rob Jones.
Now let's get into today's episode of Meteorology
Matters. We are truly grappling with an extraordinary
atmospheric split right now. It's almost a textbook
case of Weather divergence? Textbook case, yeah.
On the western half of the continent, you've
got this monster, high -impact storm system just
bearing down on the entire Pacific coast and
the Rockies. It's bringing historic moisture,
extreme wind, and a very serious, life -threatening
flood risk. And then at the exact same time...
Timetaniously, on the eastern half, stretching
all the way from the plains to the eastern seaboard,
we have a massive, unseasonal heat dome. It's
just... dominating the center of the country.
I mean, it's poised to smash. dozens of high
temperature records. So for millions, it's going
to be a white hot Christmas. That's the perfect
term for it. It is the great weather divergence
of the 2025 holidays. And it means travelers
are fighting two wildly different high impact
battles. Whether you are dodging rock slides
in California or, you know, sweating through
an 80 degree Christmas in Texas. You need to
understand not just what is driving this, but
why it is so dangerous when it collides with
these record holiday crowds. Let's start where
the immediate danger is highest. I think where
the atmospheric drama is the most intense, and
that is definitely the West Coast. Without a
doubt. California, the Pacific Northwest, the
Rockies. They're all facing significant travel
hazards, kicking off Tuesday night and lasting
right through Christmas Day and the weekend.
And this isn't just, you know, typical winter
rain. Not by a long shot. No. You're absolutely
right. This is a massive moisture event. The
meteorological community refers to it as an atmospheric
river. Right. And for those who might be unfamiliar,
you should really think of it as a river of water
vapor high up in the atmosphere. It's often nicknamed
the Pineapple Express because it draws that deep
tropical moisture right out of the Pacific. And
this one is aimed... What, straight at the California
coast? Like a fire hose. Straight toward California.
So we've heard the term atmospheric river a lot
recently. What makes this particular system so
powerful? How are forecasters quantifying this
danger? It's really the sheer volume and the
speed of the moisture transport. This is not
a weak system that's just going to generate some
steady drizzle. For the Bay Area, the intensity
is forecast to be, well, It's quite significant.
Forecasters are using highly technical language,
things like high -end strong to low -end extreme
intensity. Okay, so let's translate that jargon
for the traveler. What does high -end strong
to low -end extreme actually mean for someone
trying to get home for Christmas? It means the
water is coming in so fast that normal storm
drains in creek beds. they just can't handle
the volume. High and strong means you're going
to see significant regional impacts. You know,
localized flooding, debris flows. And low -end
extreme, that sounds like a whole other level.
It is. When they use that phrase, it signals
the potential for major widespread impacts. Things
that can lead to infrastructure failures, multi
-day road closures, and... and life -threatening
flash floods. We are talking about a powerful
influx of water vapor carrying the equivalent
of several Mississippi rivers worth of moisture
and it's aimed directly at populated coastal
and mountainous areas. And the timing just couldn't
be worse. It's a multi -wave event hitting right
at peak travel. So when exactly should people
be adjusting their plans? The initial arrival
begins Tuesday night, but the most significant
high impact period for California is concentrated
from Tuesday night right through Thursday. So
right through Christmas Eve and into Christmas
morning. Unfortunately, yes, that chaotic weather
is going to continue right into Christmas Day
and the hazards are multifaceted. You've got
heavy valley rain at low elevations, which causes
urban flooding. Then you have extremely heavy
mountain snow higher up, which will cause road
closures and wind and widespread high winds.
Absolutely. Knocking out power, making driving
nearly impossible. And critically, this system
doesn't just stop at the coast. It spreads eastward.
into the Northwest, the Great Basin, the desert
Southwest, and severely impacting holiday skiers
and the Rockies. It will just arrive there slightly
later. OK, let's zoom in on Southern California
because the flooding risk there looks truly terrifying,
especially for Christmas Eve. The National Weather
Service has issued an excessive rainfall warning,
and I saw they've upgraded it to a high risk
for flash flooding. This isn't a drill. That
high risk designation is the absolute highest
category on the scale, and it is extremely serious.
It's focused specifically on areas just north
of the city of Los Angeles. So you're talking
about densely populated communities like Burbank,
Altadena, Glendale, San Bernardino, Santa Clarita,
and Thousand Oaks. So when forecasters with the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
in Los Angeles elevate the threat to higher risk,
what are they signaling? They're signaling a
rare scenario where destructive flooding is both
likely and widespread. What specifically are
the NOAA forecasters highlighting as the primary
dangers in these zones? What should people be
looking out for? Their warning of three primary
dangers that travelers and residents absolutely
must heed. First, significant and widespread
urban roadway flooding. So this isn't just puddles?
No, this isn't just standing water. We are talking
about major arteries, underpasses, and streets
becoming completely impassable, potentially sweeping
cars away. This is just a nightmarish scenario
during peak travel, particularly as people are
rushing home on Christmas Eve. OK, what's the
second danger? Second. And this is perhaps the
most dangerous. For those who live near hillsides,
there is a high risk of major rock slides, mudslides,
and debris flow. Especially in the burn score
areas, I imagine. Exactly. Especially in areas
that have experienced wildfires in recent years.
The ground there is stripped of vegetation, and
it just can't absorb the water. The water runs
off immediately, carrying tons of mud and rock
down the canyons. It makes travel exceptionally
dangerous, particularly on mountain passes, like
those leading into the Angeles National Forest.
And the third danger. Rapid rises in creeks,
streams, and rivers. They anticipate these flows
will swell so rapidly that it will likely require
swift water rescues. And we have to pause here
and acknowledge the real -world danger. We have
already seen the tragic result of this type of
system. with a fatality over the weekend up in
Redding. One person died after being stranded
in their car during previous flooding. That's
just a tragic reminder. It is. A moving body
of water just six inches deep can sweep an adult
off their feet. Two feet can float an SUV. This
high -risk warning is basically a plea to stay
indoors. That urgency really needs to be heard
loud and clear. What are the people on the ground,
I mean the California Highway Patrol, what are
they advising travelers right now? Their advice
is unambiguous and it's critical. If you do not
absolutely need to be on the roads, you should
stay off the streets and freeways from Tuesday
night through Christmas Day. Just stay home.
Just stay home. The CHP cites the frequency of
crashes involving center dividers and drivers
losing control in strong rain. as the main reason.
When visibility drops to near zero and you hit
a patch of standing water at speed, you know,
hydroplaning is instant. It's a life safety issue,
not just an inconvenience. Exactly. It's not
a delay issue. The storm makes driving conditions
exceptionally hazardous and the risk of being
caught in a slide or flood is simply too high
to ignore. The storm sounds catastrophic enough
just listing the flooding in the slides, but
you mentioned an almost unbelievable element
to this forecast. The rare threat of tornadoes
and water spouts in California in December. How
does that happen? This is truly extraordinary,
and it really speaks to the volatile energy that's
embedded within this atmospheric river. Now,
while late December is technically the heart
of California's modern tornado season, I mean,
the state averages about nine per year, mostly
brief coastal winter events. This specific alignment
of atmosphere conditions is setting the stage
for potential water spouts and brief tornadoes
along the coast. And not just for one day, from
Tuesday night right through Friday. A four -day
window? That seems unprecedented for that region.
It's very, very unusual. So what's the atmospheric
recipe that creates this kind of instability
over California? It all comes down to the deep
dynamics of the incoming trough. The system is
pulling in not just moisture, but also warm unstable
air well ahead of the cold front. Then, as that
cold front sweeps through, it provides intense
lift and wind shear. That's the change in wind
speed and direction with height, and that is
the engine for rotation. So you need that contrast
between the air masses. You absolutely do, and
that is exactly what this intense Pacific storm
is providing. I saw a quote from Daniel Swain,
a climate scientist at UC Agriculture and Natural
Resources, and he said this is the most favorable
setup for more than a couple water spouts brief
tornadoes he's seen in quite some time. Why is
that specific phrasing so important? It speaks
to the confidence in the ingredients. Forecasters
aren't just seeing a general possibility. They
are seeing multiple elements align perfectly.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction
Center was so confident in the potential for
these cells that they placed San Francisco in
a rare marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
three days in advance. Three days out for San
Francisco. That's a huge move. A huge move. We're
talking about the first time the agency had reportedly
done that for the city in at least a decade.
They just don't take that step unless they see
a high degree of certainty in the sheer instability,
even if the overall probability remains low.
So where exactly is the highest risk concentrated
and when should people be most vigilant? The
risk comes in multiple ways, which is what makes
it so persistent. The initial coastal threat
runs from Crescent City and Del Norte County
all the way down to Santa Barbara. That kicks
off Tuesday night as the cold front approaches.
And then it moves inland. That threat expands
toward Los Angeles on Wednesday. as the line
of storms moves eastward. It'll bring with it
heavy downpours and erratic, potentially rotating
winds. Coastal areas are most likely to see water
spouts come ashore and briefly become, you know,
land spouts. But what about inland, the Central
Valley? Right, there is a crucial window for
the Central Valley. Wednesday afternoon presents
the highest risk for severe thunderstorms inland.
The peak tornado risk runs from roughly Chico
down to Fresno. And why there, specifically?
It's because the Central Valley is flatter and
warmer, and if we get any breaks in the clouds
that allow for even brief sunshine, that solar
heating provides the necessary instability right
at the surface to fuel stronger storms. Let's
be realistic about the severity here. The overall
risk for any one person is low, but the implications
are high if it does happen. What's the actual
likelihood for any single location? The overall
risk is low for any single point. We're looking
at about a two to five percent chance of a tornado
within 25 miles on Wednesday. But again, the
fact that the threat is persistent, multi -day,
and covers such a wide geographic area is what
makes it dangerous for travelers moving across
the state. Even brief weak tornadoes can cause
damage. You know, flip RVs or down trees onto
roads. And what are the accompanying hazards?
It's not just tornadoes, right? No, alongside
the potential funnel clouds, the National Weather
Service is also warning of quarter -size hail,
which is extremely rare for a California winter
storm damaging straight -line wind gusts and
frequent cloud -to -ground lightning. So while
the flooding and the non -tornadic winds pose
a greater overall risk to the most travelers,
this tornado threat adds a highly volatile and
unpredictable element to the forecast this week.
While the valleys are drowning and the coast
is dodging waterspouts, the mountains are going
to be absolutely hammered with snow, which is,
I guess, a mixed blessing right before a major
ski holiday. What are the forecasts showing for
the Sierra Nevada? The Sierra Nevada is expected
to see what forecasters are calling a prolonged
heavy snow event. Which is good for the snowpack,
long term. Oh, this is exactly what the California
snowpack needs for long term water resources.
The projections suggest a solid three to six
foot snow event for the high Sierra and localized
totals could be even higher at the highest peaks.
Three to six feet. And the water content is just
staggering. When you look at the liquid equivalent,
the amount of water this system is carrying,
we were talking about totals exceeding 15 to
20 inches in the high terrain of Northern California.
That sounds fantastic for the spring water supply,
but absolutely disastrous for anyone trying to
travel. Precisely. This means road closures,
likely for several days, along critical arteries
like Highway 50 and Interstate 80 over Donner
Pass. We're talking about blizzard -like conditions,
whiteouts, and conditions treacherous enough
that the California Highway Patrol will impose
strict chain controls. Travel will be almost
impossible. Especially through Christmas Day
and the day after. Absolutely. If you haven't
crossed the Sierra by Tuesday afternoon, you
are likely stuck until Friday or Saturday. How
does that compare to the Rockies, say, in Utah?
I know they've been struggling with unusual warmth
and limited snow recently, which led to some
event cancellations. Yeah, Utah presents a very
complicated picture for skiers. It really demonstrates
the difficult, schizophrenic nature of this storm.
The multi -day Christmas storm is hitting the
Wattsatch Range, but it starts warm. Starts warm
with rain. With rain. Rain is actually forecast
to push up near 10 ,000 feet on Christmas Eve.
That warm rain at high elevations is catastrophic
for the existing snow base. It compacts it, melts
it, and turns it into concrete. And this is after
they already had to move the Deer Valley World
Cup events. Exactly. This follows that general
trend of warm weather and limited snow that already
forced those prestigious events to be moved to
the East Coast due to insufficient base. So anyone
flying into Salt Lake City hoping for a white
Christmas ski trip is going to be disappointed,
at least initially. Disappointed. and likely
dealing with a very messy mix of rain and slush
at Mid Mountain. However, there is a silver lining
later in the forecast as the pattern breaks.
Much colder air is expected to finally arrive
Friday into Saturday after that initial warm
pulse moves through and dumps its liquid. When
that deep cold finally settles in, the Wasatch
Range, the areas around Park City and Stowbird,
gets a legitimate shot at accumulating 8 to 16
inches of fresh, dry, skiable snow. So if you're
traveling to Utah, the beginning of the week
is messy and warm, but the end of the week and
the following weekend should be much better.
Much better, colder, true winter conditions.
You just have to survive the initial deluge.
All right, let's pivot now to the exact opposite
problem dominating the majority of the map. If
the West is dealing with a major, potentially
catastrophic winter storm, the Central and Eastern
U .S. are having anything but. It is a full -on
heat wave, which sounds absolutely unbelievable
for late December. It does. We're talking about
people potentially needing air conditioning to
enjoy Christmas dinner. It's the great meteorological
irony of this holiday season. Forget about a
traditional white Christmas across most of the
continental U .S. Much of America will experience
a white -hot Christmas. Forecasters are projecting
that Christmas 2025 will rank as one of the warmest
on record across a massive swath of the country,
stretching from the high plains all the way to
the Atlantic coast. And this isn't just mild
either. We're looking at temperatures that are
going to shatter previous high marks set decades
ago. Let's put some specific numbers on this.
Where exactly will travelers and residents be
sweating while opening gifts? The records are
falling across a wide, geographically diverse
area. For Christmas Day, December 25th, Dallas
is expected to hit a high of 80 degrees Fahrenheit.
80 degrees in Dallas on Christmas. Which would
break the recent record set just back in 2021.
But it's not just Dallas. Lawton, Oklahoma is
also forecast for 80 degrees on Christmas Day.
That would shatter their previous record of 76
from 2021. And it's not just Christmas Day, right?
This lasts for a few days. It does. Booneville,
Arkansas, and Oklahoma City are expected to hit
similar highs around 80 on Christmas Day and
the following day, December 26. I mean, think
about that. 80 degrees on December 26 in Oklahoma.
That feels less like winter and more like a premature
spring day. And this heat is pushing far north
and east, too. It is. Even cities much further
north than Emland are affected. Yeah. Denver,
Colorado, has a potential high of 69 degrees
on Christmas Day. Which is a record. It ties
or breaks a record that stood since 2005. Pueblo,
Colorado, could hit 71, breaking a record set
way back in 1971. Wow, 1971. And even into the
Southeast, places like Macon, Georgia, are looking
at a potential high of 77 on Christmas Day. When
you look at the data for the full week, Dozens
of locations from Texas to the mid -Atlantic
are forecast to see high temperatures in the
upper 70s or low 80s. So the U .S. is effectively
running the air conditioning for the holidays.
In many places, yes. To put this incredible pervasive
warmth into context, let's look specifically
at Colorado. It's an interesting case because
it's seeing a record high one day and then maybe
snow the next. It really embodies this year's
climate extremes. How does this late December
warmth fit into the larger climate picture of
2025 for that state? Colorado serves as a crucial
microcosm for the accelerating warming trend
we are seeing globally. The data confirms that
2025 was one of the warmest ever years in Colorado.
Through November, it ranked as the ninth warmest
year overall in the 131 years of recorded weather
data they possess. Ninth warmest. But the real
story is the acceleration, isn't it? It's the
acceleration. State climatologist Russ Schumacher
pointed out that eight out of the 10 warmest
years in Colorado have occurred since 2012. Wait,
say that again. Eight of the 10 warmest years
have happened since 2012. That's a stunning acceleration.
That's not a gradual, gentle trend anymore. It
speaks to the consistent underlying warming driven
by climate change that researchers are quite
clear about. The warmer baseline air makes these
specific record -shattering events much easier
to achieve. It's a shorter leap to get to a record
high. Exactly. If the average December high starts
at 40 degrees, getting to 70 is a massive leap.
If the new baseline is 50, getting to 70 is much
simpler for a strong high pressure system to
manage. And 2025 in Colorado wasn't just warm,
it was marked by volatility, wasn't it? Absolutely.
The year was marked by truly stunning heat extremes
earlier. Denver had a record high of 83 degrees
on November 11th. That broke the all -time record
high for the entire month. 83 in November. And
over the summer, we saw the hottest day of the
year on August 7th, when both Los Animas and
Lamar topped out at 109 degrees. And this volatility
extends to moisture too, right? This split personality.
It does. While the west side of the state experienced
ongoing long -term drought, the east side saw
record -high rainfall and intense flash flooding.
We had the wettest day in Denver on August 10th
with nearly one and a half inches of rain, but
the highest one day precipitation statewide was
over five inches at Walsh on August 30th. That
led to catastrophic local flooding. So this split
precipitation pattern coupled with the consistent
warmth really defines the chaotic volatility
of the year for Colorado. And it mirrors the
national split we are discussing right now. Okay,
so we have floods, slides, and storms in the
West. and records being obliterated by this incredible
heat in the Central and Eastern U .S. What is
the fundamental mechanism linking these two extreme
and contrasting patterns? How does the West Coast
storm cause the East Coast heat? The systems
are inextricably linked. It's all about the position
and the behavior of the jet stream, which is
essentially the fast -moving river of air high
up that dictates where storms go. Like a garden
hose. Think of it like a garden hose, exactly.
Normally it flows relatively straight, but right
now it is performing a massive lazy wave across
the North American continent. A wave? And the
atmospheric rivers that are drenching California
are riding the first part of that lazy wave,
a dramatic deep dip in the jet stream near the
West Coast. That dip allows the storm to pull
immense moisture from the tropical Pacific. But
this energy transfer doesn't just stop at the
coast. As the jet stream recovers from that massive
southward plunge, it snaps back northward and
forms a corresponding large, strong ridge of
high pressure. So the dip creates the storm in
the west and the snapback ridge creates the heat
in the east. You've got it. Yeah. That high pressure
ridge anchored over the Gulf of Mexico, it acts
like a warm air pump that just won't turn off.
It is sending vast amounts of warm air north
and east, dominating the central and eastern
states. Yeah. And crucially, it's preventing
any intrusion of Arctic air from Canada from
settling in for the holidays. Like a shield.
It's a massive shield. And the contrast you see,
the extreme rainfall in L .A. and the 80 degree
temperatures in Dallas is all being orchestrated
by this dramatic amplified jet stream pattern.
It's effectively a continental scale atmospheric
seesaw. This pattern feels like it goes beyond
just normal winter variability. You mentioned
earlier that researchers have been working hard
to link specific events to long -term climate
trends. Is there concrete research linking this
December warm event to human -caused climate
change? Yes, there is some crucial early research
that speaks directly to this. The research group
Climate Central which focuses on rapid attribution
techniques, has released some early findings
regarding this specific December warm event.
They suggest that this highly amplified high
pressure setup and the resulting warm temperatures
are at least two to three times more likely to
occur due to human -caused carbon pollution.
Let's unpack that two to three times more likely
finding for a minute. What does that mean in
practical terms? It doesn't mean climate change
caused the weather, right? It amplified it. Right.
It means that the ingredients for a warm December
blast are natural. But the intensity and the
extent of this warming event are being boosted
significantly by the underlying change in the
planet's thermodynamics. Since the global baseline
temperature is higher now than it was 50 years
ago, it takes less energy for a high pressure
system to push the thermometer up to 80 degrees.
The background air starts warmer, making the
records easier to break. And the warming is more
pervasive across the continent. Exactly. This
link between the high pressure ridge, the amplified
jet stream, and the climate change signal is
why this specific pattern is so important to
understand. That powerful linkage between the
West's storms and the East's heat brings us to
the broader seasonal context. This chaotic, immediate
weather is deeply rooted in the larger climate
dynamics governed by the Pacific Ocean. Let's
talk about the El Nino Southern Oscillation,
or ENSO, and its current state. Right. ENSO,
for short, is the recurring pattern of temperature
shifts in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects
global weather patterns. It has two main phases,
El Niño, which is the warm phase, and La Niña,
which is the cool phase. What we are dealing
with right now and what's driving this volatility
is a La Niña winter. For listeners who may not
track these cycles closely, how do we define
La Niña and why does a subtle change in Pacific
Ocean water temperature have such massive effects
on a U .S. Christmas forecast? La Niña is characterized
by cooler than average sea surface temperatures
across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
And it matters enormously because the ocean temperature
influences the atmosphere above it. Specifically,
it changes the placement and strength of the
jet stream, that river of air we just discussed.
OK. In a La Niña pattern, the jet stream tends
to buckle. favoring a storm track that is wetter
and colder across the northern tier of the U
.S. and warmer and drier across the southern
tier. It sets the stage for exactly the extreme
divide we are seeing this holiday week. So what's
the current guidance from the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration on how long this
cool phase is expected to last? The Climate Prediction
Center within NOAA has confirmed that La Niña
conditions are currently present, and they are
strongly favored to persist through the peak
winter months, specifically through December
2025 and February 2026. So through the whole
winter. But they are also signaling a likely
transition to ENESO -neutral conditions by late
winter or early spring in 2026. They assign it
a 55 % chance of transitioning during the January
through March period. So while La Nina is driving
the initial chaos of winter, we could see a shift
toward more variable, less predictable conditions
later on. That's the idea, yes. So if the current
weather divergence is an amplification of the
La Nina pattern, what does a typical La Nina
winter December through February mean for the
rest of the U .S.? How long can travelers expect
this massive temperature split to last? The current
pattern is essentially La Nina at maximum volume.
Generally, it results in a clear temperature
split that lasts for months. Let's start with
temperature. Okay, first, temperature. Warmer
than average temperatures are strongly favored
across the entire southern tier, stretching up
the eastern seaboard and even northern Alaska.
The strongest probabilities for this persistent,
unseasonal warmth are in the southwest U .S.
and most of Florida. Good for vacationers, I
suppose. It is, but conversely, cooler than average
temperatures are slightly favored in the northern
tier. specifically from the Pacific Northwest
across Montana, North Dakota, and into northern
Minnesota. So the north is colder and wetter
and the south is warmer and drier. That sounds
like it reinforces the pattern for the west coast
storms we just talked about. It does, and that
brings us to the precipitation split. Wetter
than average conditions are most likely over
Montana, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern
Plains, the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio
River Valley. They are going to see the primary
storm track focus there, which is why the Pacific
Northwest is getting consistent moisture. And
in contrast? In stark contrast, drier than average
conditions are most likely across the southern
tier states – Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the far southeast U .S. This aligns
perfectly with that massive high -pressure ridge
and the warm air pump we discussed earlier. And
this is where the long -term concerns really
rise. That drier forecast for the southern tier
has significant long -term implications for water
resources and the ongoing drought crises, particularly
in the southwest. What's the outlook showing
there? Yeah, the seasonal outlook, which covers
October 2025 through January Tummy 26, is quite
grim regarding drought relief. Drought is expected
to persist across the southwest, the deep south,
and portions of the northeast. And it might get
worse in some places. Yes. Forecasters are warning
of the likely development of new drought conditions
across the south central states, a serious concern
for agriculture and water utilities there that
have managed to hold on so far. Let's focus on
the Colorado River Basin Crunch for a moment.
How much does La Nina exacerbate that specific
problem, which affects, what, 40 million people?
The southwest California, Nevada, Arizona and
Utah is the most consistently vulnerable region
under a La Nina pattern. The cool phase increases
the chance of below average precipitation here
by over 50%. It makes consistent dry spells much
more probable for the mountain ranges that feed
the Colorado River. And they rely on that winter
snowpack. Heavily. This is highly relevant when
considering the ongoing water crunch in the Colorado
River Basin. We know that major cities like Denver
and Phoenix are already scrambling to future
-proof their water supplies. Lake Mead and Lake
Powell are at chronically low levels. A persistent
La Niña pattern means the hope for a miracle
march or a massive snowpack recovery is diminished
throughout the winter season. So water shortages
will likely continue to deepen in 2026. It seems
very likely, yes. That's a profound long -term
impact coming from the same climate dynamic that
gives us 80 degree Christmas. You also mentioned
specific warnings for the far southeast, like
Florida. What are the concerns there beyond just
being too warm? Since the La Nina pattern favors
those warmer and drier conditions for the southern
U .S. overall, this creates increased climatic
variability and a heightened wildfire risk in
regions that aren't accustomed to it in winter.
Wildfire risk in winter. Right. Forecasters have
already warned Florida agriculture officials
to prepare for increased wildfire potential due
to these drier and warmer conditions persisting
throughout the winter months. So while the absence
of cold is a relief for travelers, the increased
risk of dryness and fire poses a serious threat
to regional stability in agriculture. This meteorological
division's severe flood and tornado risk in the
west, record heat in the middle, and a persistent
drought threat in the south is colliding head
-on with the biggest travel period ever recorded.
It's a logistical nightmare. Let's look at the
travel volume first. The sheer number of travelers
is staggering, and it underscores why this forecast
is so critical. The AAA projects that 122 .4
million Americans will travel at least 50 miles
from home between December 20th and January 1st.
122 million. To put that figure in perspective,
that's roughly one -third of the entire U .S.
population making a major trip. And that makes
this the busiest year -end travel period on record.
Officially, yes. And air travel is truly leading
the charge in this surge. And that's where the
weather chaos translates most quickly into human
misery. Absolutely. Domestic air travel is projected
to hit a record high of 8 .03 million travelers
this holiday season. This is the first time that
number has exceeded 8 million domestic flyers
during this specific year -end period. So the
system is already at its breaking point, even
with perfect weather. Exactly. When air traffic
control systems, airport infrastructure, and
airline staffing are already operating at near
100 % capacity, any significant weather event
instantly throws the entire operation into gridlock.
When should travelers brace for the absolute
worst crowds at the airports? We need to give
them some practical advice. Well, the busiest
days for air travel were the Friday before Christmas,
December 19th, as people rushed to get ahead
of the storms, and then the upcoming Friday and
Saturday after Christmas, December 26th and 27th,
as the masses return home. OK, so there is a
slight lull. There is. Fortunately, if you are
flying on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, New Year's
Eve or New Year's Day, those are expected to
be the lightest travel days. But again, Light
is a very relative term when we are talking about
a record -breaking volume of 8 million domestic
flyers. How will the extreme weather in the West
translate into air travel disruption across the
entire country? Because that ripple effect is
what truly strands people, and that starts with
LAX. It creates a direct massive threat to the
major Western air hubs. Los Angeles International
Airport, LAX, is set for a huge increase in traffic,
but it's simultaneously right in the path of
that atmospheric river. We expect the storm to
impact LAX operations dramatically. It may not
shut down completely, but high winds and low
visibility will necessitate mandatory slowing
of arrivals and departures. So widespread delays
are pretty much a guarantee? It seems likely,
yes. Denver International DNN is also bracing
for packed terminals amidst the forecast warmth
and high volume, especially as a crucial connecting
point between the coasts. What about the connection
hubs? The traveler's journey so often depends
on a smooth connection through the massive airports
in the middle of the country. And that's where
the risk shifts immediately to the connectivity
between the hubs and the destinations. The top
domestic destinations this year are all warm
locales. Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Anaheim,
Los Angeles, Honolulu, and Tampa. And they are
all fed by hubs like Atlanta and Dallas. They're
fed by major connection hubs further east, particularly
Atlanta, Hartsfield -Jackson, ATL and Dallas
-Fort Worth DFW. And DFW is expecting 80 degree
heat. What does that do to operations? Well,
while it avoids ice and snow, DFW will be dealing
with the operational strain of high heat on massive
volume. Tarmac temperatures can be even higher
than the air temperature, which can stress ground
crews and aircraft electronics. But more Critically,
the huge volume of delayed inbound flights from
the storm -hit West Coast will quickly backlog
the systems at ATL and DFW. Causing a cascading
failure across the country. Exactly. ATL often
sees over 200 ,000 passengers a day. Any weather
disturbance, no matter how local, can push that
terminal past its breaking point. So if a flight
originating in Seattle or San Francisco is delayed
or canceled due to the storm, how quickly will
that impact someone flying from, say, Nashville
to Orlando? The impact is almost immediate. Most
major airlines operate on a spoken hub model.
That means the aircraft itself is likely needed
for the next leg, often a cross -country flight.
If an aircraft is stuck at LAX due to wind and
rain, the flight it was supposed to operate four
hours later from DFW to Orlando is now missing
its plane. And in a high volume scenario like
this, there are no spare aircraft or spare flight
crews available. Not really. That's why you need
to be hyper aware that a flood warning 2000 miles
away can still ruin your holiday plans. With
ATL, DFW and Nashville International BNA all
expecting record crowds, what is the essential
practical preparation advice for those traveling
through these connection points? Preparation
is absolutely key. Expect crowded terminals,
packed flights and inevitable delays. The airlines
and airports are all repeating the same advice.
Arrive at least two hours early for domestic
flights and three hours for international. And
even that might not be enough. It might not.
But more importantly, you should download and
check your airlines app constantly. Look into
Trip Insurance and have a Plan B route or accommodation
ready. because waiting on standby is not a strategy
that works when 122 million people are traveling.
Finally, left look ahead to the New Year's transition.
We've been focused on the warmth, but that massive
warm ridge can't last forever, especially with
La Nina influencing the broader pattern. What
happens as we head into the last week of 2025?
The pattern is expected to pivot sharply right
after Christmas, the atmospheric pressure ridge
finally breaks down, and forecasters are expecting
a significant temperature tumble to start the
week of December 29th across the Midwest and
East. Following that initial record -breaking
heat wave. Right. So if you traveled out to Dallas
for the 80 -degree Christmas, your trip home
a few days later might require a heavy coat.
What does that mean for New Year's Eve celebrations
across the major cities? Will the cold air arrive
in time to make things icy? Or will the persistent
wet pattern cause trouble? For New Year's Eve
itself, we are still tracking multiple developing
storms that could impact celebrations, particularly
from New York City all the way to Seattle. So
Seattle and Portland are still wet? Unlikely
to catch a break from the persistently wet December
they've experienced. Rain is expected right around
the start of the new year. But the southwest
looks good. For those wanting mild weather, Phoenix,
Los Angeles, and San Diego are forecast to have
some of the best weather for outdoor celebrations.
Dry and mild as that west coast storm finally
moves out. What about South Florida? We need
to watch the timing of that cold air closely.
Even South Florida, a top destination like Miami,
is expected to see the influence of that breaking
ridge. Arctic Air is forecast to hit that area
right around New Year's Eve. For how long? The
cool down should only last about two days before
temperatures quickly rebound. And what about
road travel warnings for those driving across
the Midwest after Christmas? The pivot from 70
degrees to freezing can create extremely dangerous
driving conditions overnight. That is exactly
the concern. The transition zone will be hazardous.
You have to watch out for potential slippery
conditions from light freezing rain, sleet or
snow late Christmas night. From North Dakota
into northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and
Michigan. Black ice becomes a major threat. When
rain or very mild air precedes a sharp cold front,
any residual moisture on the pavement can freeze
almost instantly when the temperature tumbles.
It leads to black ice and immediate road chaos.
It's a major final hurdle for holiday travelers
trying to get home safely. To summarize the key
takeaway for you, our listener, we are witnessing
an absolutely unprecedented holiday season defined
by a massive weather divergence across the continental
United States. We have high and flooding and
a rare tornado threat in the West caused by an
intense atmospheric river colliding with a record
breaking climate enhanced heat wave in the central
and eastern states. All of this chaos is driven
by the amplified La Nina pattern and the persistent
long term warming trends confirmed by climate
researchers and it's unfolding as a record 122
million Americans try to travel. driven by that
atmospheric wave pattern, really highlights the
intense volatility in our climate today. And
while we expect a brief Arctic snap to hit the
Midwest and East around the New Year's transition,
models are already suggesting that the pattern
will rebound quickly. So the warmth comes back.
The first half of January, which is typically
the coldest time of the year, is expected to
turn warmer than average across much of the country
once again, especially east of the Rockies. That
potential for continued warmth and snow shortfalls
well into February is a significant provocative
thought. It reinforces the long -term trend seen
in 2025's heat records and suggests that the
traditional depths of winter may be increasingly
elusive outside of the core northern wet zones.
That's the crucial insight. It means that while
you may get temporary winter relief, the climate
signal for consistent warmth remains dominant.
We're no longer just measuring the weather, we
are measuring the volatility and the long -term
shift. That's right. You've been listening to
Meteorology Matters, created by meteorologist
Rob Jones. We want to hear from you. What stands
out to you about this chaotic forecast, and how
is it impacting your holiday travel plans? Don't
stay quiet, jump on our socials and let us know
what you think. Be sure to like, follow, drop
a comment, and rate the podcast. You can follow
meteorologist Rob Jones on Instagram at Meteorologist,
on TikTok at TVMeteorologist, and on YouTube,
follow Rob Jones Hurricane, where you can also
find the Meteorology Matters podcast playlist.
Thanks for listening. And remember, the weather
always matters. Merry Christmas and happy holidays
to all.