WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.980 The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has finally 00:00:02.980 --> 00:00:06.379 wrapped up and it ended with, well, a truly catastrophic 00:00:06.379 --> 00:00:09.970 event, Hurricane Melissa. A historic storm, really. 00:00:10.109 --> 00:00:12.529 A category five Titan that just tore through 00:00:12.529 --> 00:00:16.269 the Caribbean. It slammed Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, 00:00:17.089 --> 00:00:19.489 leaving behind just widespread destruction. The 00:00:19.489 --> 00:00:21.449 death toll is estimated close to 100 people. 00:00:21.589 --> 00:00:23.649 And the intensity was just off the charts. Yeah. 00:00:23.949 --> 00:00:27.829 Melissa peaked with sustained winds of 185 miles 00:00:27.829 --> 00:00:30.670 per hour. That's a record breaking level of ferocity. 00:00:31.010 --> 00:00:33.229 But here's the paradox of the season. And it's 00:00:33.229 --> 00:00:35.929 a huge one. Despite the brutal power of Melissa 00:00:35.929 --> 00:00:38.689 and two other cat fives this year, the continental 00:00:38.689 --> 00:00:41.729 US coast saw, well, nothing, an unprecedented 00:00:41.729 --> 00:00:43.929 escape. A massive statistical contradiction, 00:00:44.009 --> 00:00:46.070 and that's what we need to unpack today. Absolutely. 00:00:46.509 --> 00:00:48.770 Welcome to Meteorology Matters, the podcast that 00:00:48.770 --> 00:00:51.130 dives deep into the science, chaos, and stories 00:00:51.130 --> 00:00:53.350 behind the weather that shapes our world. This 00:00:53.350 --> 00:00:56.030 show is created by meteorologist Rob Jones, and 00:00:56.030 --> 00:00:58.049 we're doing something new this season, offering 00:00:58.049 --> 00:01:00.509 every episode in English and Spanish. Yeah, that's 00:01:00.509 --> 00:01:03.030 right. Same stories, two languages. Why? Because 00:01:03.030 --> 00:01:05.109 weather impacts everyone, and science should 00:01:05.109 --> 00:01:07.109 speak to all of us. But here's where you come 00:01:07.109 --> 00:01:10.609 in. We want to know what you think. Is this bilingual 00:01:10.609 --> 00:01:14.709 setup awesome, confusing, totally unnecessary? 00:01:15.069 --> 00:01:16.909 Tell us straight up on social media. Comment, 00:01:16.989 --> 00:01:19.870 like, share, or DM us and let it rip. Follow 00:01:19.870 --> 00:01:23.069 meteorologist Rob Jones on Instagram at Meteorologist, 00:01:23.670 --> 00:01:26.750 on TikTok at TV Meteorologist, and on YouTube, 00:01:26.829 --> 00:01:29.230 follow Rob Jones Hurricane, where you can also 00:01:29.230 --> 00:01:31.450 find the Meteorology Matters podcast playlist. 00:01:31.849 --> 00:01:33.930 We want you to like, follow, comment, and rate 00:01:33.930 --> 00:01:36.500 the podcast. Now let's get into today's episode 00:01:36.500 --> 00:01:43.599 of Meteorology Matters. purely statistical point 00:01:43.599 --> 00:01:46.239 of view, it seems almost moderate. Right. On 00:01:46.239 --> 00:01:48.920 the surface. We ended up with 13 named storms, 00:01:49.319 --> 00:01:51.799 five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. And 00:01:51.799 --> 00:01:53.500 the climatological average, what we normally 00:01:53.500 --> 00:01:56.620 see, is around 14, 7, and 3. So fewer named storms, 00:01:56.799 --> 00:01:58.739 fewer hurricanes overall. Exactly. So if you 00:01:58.739 --> 00:02:00.739 just look at the counts, you'd think, oh, a slightly 00:02:00.739 --> 00:02:03.459 below average season. But that completely misses 00:02:03.459 --> 00:02:06.379 the story of 2025, doesn't it? The research has 00:02:06.379 --> 00:02:08.280 been calling this an all -or -nothing season, 00:02:08.280 --> 00:02:10.560 and that feels right. The real story is in the 00:02:10.560 --> 00:02:13.270 intensity. The intensity paradox, yeah. That's 00:02:13.270 --> 00:02:16.129 the key. We only had five storms get strong enough 00:02:16.129 --> 00:02:18.990 to be called a hurricane. But four of those five, 00:02:19.650 --> 00:02:23.770 four out of five, that's 80 % escalated to major 00:02:23.770 --> 00:02:26.789 hurricane status. So category three or higher. 00:02:27.050 --> 00:02:30.889 And that 80 % ratio is the crucial number. It's 00:02:30.889 --> 00:02:33.710 a huge statistical anomaly. Put that in context 00:02:33.710 --> 00:02:36.900 for us. What's the normal ratio? Well, the long 00:02:36.900 --> 00:02:39.060 -term average, what you'd expect to see, is that 00:02:39.060 --> 00:02:42.120 about 40 % of hurricanes become majors. So this 00:02:42.120 --> 00:02:44.560 season doubled that. It literally doubled the 00:02:44.560 --> 00:02:46.840 historical average. And what that tells us is 00:02:46.840 --> 00:02:49.139 that the atmospheric conditions were, well, they 00:02:49.139 --> 00:02:51.960 were extremely picky. They either shut down storm 00:02:51.960 --> 00:02:55.710 formation completely, Or they provided the absolute 00:02:55.710 --> 00:02:58.610 perfect fuel for these explosive, incredibly 00:02:58.610 --> 00:03:00.909 powerful systems. There was no middle ground. 00:03:01.030 --> 00:03:02.830 We can actually measure that power difference, 00:03:02.830 --> 00:03:04.909 right, using the accumulated cyclone energy, 00:03:05.310 --> 00:03:08.289 or ACE. Right. ACE combines the intensity and 00:03:08.289 --> 00:03:10.310 the duration of all the storms. So with fewer 00:03:10.310 --> 00:03:12.129 hurricanes, you might think, OK, the ACE score 00:03:12.129 --> 00:03:13.889 would be lower this year. And that would be a 00:03:13.889 --> 00:03:16.289 very logical assumption. But it's wrong. So what 00:03:16.289 --> 00:03:18.849 was the final number? Despite having fewer storms, 00:03:19.389 --> 00:03:21.870 the total ACE for the season ended up around 00:03:21.870 --> 00:03:24.849 133. It's actually about seven or eight percent 00:03:24.849 --> 00:03:27.430 above the long -term average. So quality over 00:03:27.430 --> 00:03:29.650 quantity, basically. The storms that did manage 00:03:29.650 --> 00:03:31.669 to survive were way more potent and they lasted 00:03:31.669 --> 00:03:34.310 longer than usual. Precisely. And some of those 00:03:34.310 --> 00:03:36.770 storms were carrying almost the entire season's 00:03:36.770 --> 00:03:38.610 energy budget on their own. You're talking about 00:03:38.610 --> 00:03:41.990 Hurricane Aaron? Absolutely. The disproportionate 00:03:41.990 --> 00:03:43.949 intensity is perfectly illustrated by Aaron. 00:03:44.430 --> 00:03:47.189 The accumulated cyclone energy that Aaron generated 00:03:47.189 --> 00:03:50.400 all by itself. It was roughly equal to the combined 00:03:50.400 --> 00:03:53.580 ACE of seven other named storms. Seven storms 00:03:53.580 --> 00:03:56.740 combined. Which ones? Andrea, Barry, Chantal, 00:03:57.439 --> 00:04:01.139 Dexter, Fernand, Gabrielle, and Imelda. All seven 00:04:01.139 --> 00:04:03.599 of them together barely match the energy output 00:04:03.599 --> 00:04:06.219 of Erin alone. Wow. So the season wasn't balanced 00:04:06.219 --> 00:04:08.300 at all. It was just dominated by three or four 00:04:08.300 --> 00:04:10.240 absolute monsters. That's the perfect way to 00:04:10.240 --> 00:04:12.659 describe it. A few powerhouses just dominated 00:04:12.659 --> 00:04:14.919 the whole atmospheric energy budget. Which brings 00:04:14.919 --> 00:04:17.180 us to the weird timing of the season. It really 00:04:17.180 --> 00:04:19.560 felt disjointed with these long lulls and then 00:04:19.560 --> 00:04:22.519 these sudden violent bursts of activity. That 00:04:22.519 --> 00:04:25.500 stop -start nature was. Yeah. It was bewildering, 00:04:25.519 --> 00:04:28.420 even for us watching it unfold. First, the season 00:04:28.420 --> 00:04:31.139 started late. Andre, yeah. It didn't form until 00:04:31.139 --> 00:04:33.939 late June. June 24th. That's the latest start 00:04:33.939 --> 00:04:36.819 we've seen since 2014. And it's well past the 00:04:36.819 --> 00:04:40.139 median date of June 15th. But then, after a burst 00:04:40.139 --> 00:04:44.139 of activity, we hit this this massive quiet period, 00:04:44.439 --> 00:04:48.100 a real dormancy. And that quiet spell from late 00:04:48.100 --> 00:04:50.579 August through mid -September, that's supposed 00:04:50.579 --> 00:04:52.899 to be the absolute peak of the season. For almost 00:04:52.899 --> 00:04:55.660 three weeks, the Atlantic just went completely 00:04:55.660 --> 00:04:58.899 silent. It felt dead. That lull, it ran from 00:04:58.899 --> 00:05:01.199 August 29th through September 16th, and it became 00:05:01.199 --> 00:05:03.800 a huge puzzle for researchers. When you see a 00:05:03.800 --> 00:05:06.339 quiet period that profound and that long right 00:05:06.339 --> 00:05:08.949 during the climatological peak, You know, it's 00:05:08.949 --> 00:05:11.529 not just random. It points to some massive planetary 00:05:11.529 --> 00:05:13.569 skill dynamics at play. So what were they? What 00:05:13.569 --> 00:05:15.569 were the scientific mechanisms that basically 00:05:15.569 --> 00:05:17.689 just flipped the off switch on the Atlantic? 00:05:17.970 --> 00:05:19.870 The research points to two main culprits. The 00:05:19.870 --> 00:05:21.430 first is something we see pretty often, which 00:05:21.430 --> 00:05:24.089 is huge plumes of Saharan dust drifting out over 00:05:24.089 --> 00:05:27.089 the ocean. The Saharan air layer, SAL, it brings 00:05:27.089 --> 00:05:29.449 dry, stable air. Right, and that's just hostile 00:05:29.449 --> 00:05:31.870 for hurricane formation. But the bigger factor, 00:05:31.949 --> 00:05:34.649 the more dominant one this season, was the Madden 00:05:34.649 --> 00:05:37.290 -Julian Oscillation, or MJO. Okay, for listeners 00:05:37.290 --> 00:05:38.970 who might not be familiar, can you break down 00:05:38.970 --> 00:05:42.560 the MJO and why it's so critical? Sure. The MJO 00:05:42.560 --> 00:05:46.019 is this massive wave of pressure and moisture. 00:05:46.399 --> 00:05:48.680 It travels eastward around the entire globe, 00:05:48.899 --> 00:05:51.160 right near the equator, and it completes a full 00:05:51.160 --> 00:05:54.360 circle every 30 to 60 days. And it has two different 00:05:54.360 --> 00:05:56.879 modes, right? It has two main phases. The active 00:05:56.879 --> 00:05:59.680 phase is characterized by rising air, deep clouds, 00:05:59.819 --> 00:06:02.699 low pressure. basically all the ingredients that 00:06:02.699 --> 00:06:04.660 help hurricanes form and grow. And the other 00:06:04.660 --> 00:06:07.019 one? The other is the quiescent or suppressed 00:06:07.019 --> 00:06:09.459 phase, which is the exact opposite. You get sinking 00:06:09.459 --> 00:06:12.660 air, clear skies, and much more stable atmosphere. 00:06:12.959 --> 00:06:16.939 So if the MJO is active over the Atlantic, it's 00:06:16.939 --> 00:06:18.860 like a green light for storms. If it's suppressed, 00:06:18.899 --> 00:06:21.660 it's a red light. Precisely. And during that 00:06:21.660 --> 00:06:24.399 critical lull in late August and early September, 00:06:25.160 --> 00:06:27.300 analysis confirmed the MJO was firmly in its 00:06:27.300 --> 00:06:30.000 suppressed phase over the entire Western Atlantic 00:06:30.000 --> 00:06:33.310 and the Caribbean. That sinking air was warming 00:06:33.310 --> 00:06:35.250 and drying out the mid -levels of the atmosphere. 00:06:35.629 --> 00:06:37.949 It was essentially starving any little disturbances 00:06:37.949 --> 00:06:40.170 of the moisture and lift they needed to get organized. 00:06:40.829 --> 00:06:43.129 The Atlantic was just uninhabitable for storms 00:06:43.129 --> 00:06:45.490 during that window. Okay, so let's shift to the 00:06:45.490 --> 00:06:48.050 US side of the story. We have this explosive, 00:06:48.490 --> 00:06:50.750 scientifically fascinating, but very start and 00:06:50.750 --> 00:06:53.860 stop season out in the Atlantic. But the headline 00:06:53.860 --> 00:06:55.819 that really got everyone's attention was the 00:06:55.819 --> 00:06:58.600 incredible U .S. escape. It's a truly remarkable 00:06:58.600 --> 00:07:01.459 data point. 2025 was the first time in 10 years 00:07:01.459 --> 00:07:04.699 since 2015 that no hurricane made landfall on 00:07:04.699 --> 00:07:06.560 the continental U .S. And you have to think of 00:07:06.560 --> 00:07:09.040 the context of recent years. We just broke a 00:07:09.040 --> 00:07:11.579 record long streak of five straight years from 00:07:11.579 --> 00:07:14.660 2020 to 2024, where we had at least one major 00:07:14.660 --> 00:07:17.360 hurricane landfall every single year. We were 00:07:17.360 --> 00:07:20.660 getting used to names like Irma, Ian, Harvey, 00:07:21.139 --> 00:07:24.990 Helene. These catastrophic landfalls felt like 00:07:24.990 --> 00:07:28.209 the new normal. The feeling going into 2025 was 00:07:28.209 --> 00:07:31.410 that the US was due for another big hit. The 00:07:31.410 --> 00:07:33.889 atmosphere, as you said, had other plans. None 00:07:33.889 --> 00:07:36.170 of the five hurricanes this year even got close 00:07:36.170 --> 00:07:38.829 enough to trigger major evacuation orders. So 00:07:38.829 --> 00:07:41.290 what was it? What were the specific persistent 00:07:41.290 --> 00:07:44.589 atmospheric patterns that created this protective 00:07:44.589 --> 00:07:47.089 shield around the country? It was an incredible 00:07:47.089 --> 00:07:49.470 combination of steering currents. We saw two 00:07:49.470 --> 00:07:51.750 main sustained features that just worked together 00:07:51.750 --> 00:07:54.149 perfectly to keep these powerful storms safely 00:07:54.149 --> 00:07:56.740 out at sea. The first factor was something we 00:07:56.740 --> 00:07:58.819 call persistent troughiness. Okay, that's a term 00:07:58.819 --> 00:08:00.939 you hear meteorologists use, but can you break 00:08:00.939 --> 00:08:03.500 down what troughiness means and why its persistence 00:08:03.500 --> 00:08:06.579 was so unusual this year? Of course. A trough 00:08:06.579 --> 00:08:09.439 is basically an elongated area of low atmospheric 00:08:09.439 --> 00:08:11.819 pressure. You can think of it as a sustained 00:08:11.819 --> 00:08:14.139 southward dip in the jet stream over a specific 00:08:14.139 --> 00:08:16.600 region. This season we had one of these troughs 00:08:16.600 --> 00:08:19.079 just stubbornly parked over the southeast United 00:08:19.079 --> 00:08:21.379 States. And because storms tend to flow around 00:08:21.379 --> 00:08:24.439 these pressure systems. Exactly. Low pressure 00:08:24.439 --> 00:08:27.019 systems spin counterclockwise in the northern 00:08:27.019 --> 00:08:30.019 hemisphere, so this persistent trough created 00:08:30.019 --> 00:08:32.720 a reliable counterclockwise steering current. 00:08:32.980 --> 00:08:35.559 Meaning any storm that approached the east coast 00:08:35.559 --> 00:08:38.340 from the south or east would just hit those winds 00:08:38.340 --> 00:08:42.100 and get shunted away? Precisely. It acted like 00:08:42.100 --> 00:08:45.419 a giant continuous defensive wall. It diverted 00:08:45.419 --> 00:08:48.240 all the incoming storms northward and then eastward, 00:08:48.279 --> 00:08:50.419 pushing them out into the open Atlantic long 00:08:50.419 --> 00:08:52.159 before they had a chance to even threaten the 00:08:52.159 --> 00:08:54.090 coast. And the other piece of the puzzle was 00:08:54.090 --> 00:08:56.570 the Bermuda High. The Bermuda High, or the North 00:08:56.570 --> 00:08:58.970 Atlantic Subtropical High, was the second critical 00:08:58.970 --> 00:09:02.190 component. It's this huge semi -permanent high 00:09:02.190 --> 00:09:04.990 pressure system, and its position really dictates 00:09:04.990 --> 00:09:07.450 where storms go. If it builds west, it pushes 00:09:07.450 --> 00:09:09.450 them right into the Gulf of Mexico or the East 00:09:09.450 --> 00:09:12.629 Coast. Right. But this season, that high was 00:09:12.629 --> 00:09:15.029 consistently positioned farther east than usual. 00:09:15.210 --> 00:09:17.309 And how did that change the steering? Because 00:09:17.309 --> 00:09:19.629 the center of the high was displaced so far to 00:09:19.629 --> 00:09:22.909 the east, the clockwise flow on its western edge, 00:09:23.370 --> 00:09:25.450 the flow that would normally steer storms inland, 00:09:26.029 --> 00:09:29.490 was much weaker and shifted offshore. This gave 00:09:29.490 --> 00:09:31.610 the storms enough room to make that graceful 00:09:31.610 --> 00:09:34.110 curve away from both the East Coast and the Gulf 00:09:34.110 --> 00:09:37.370 of Mexico. The persistence of that favorable 00:09:37.370 --> 00:09:40.070 pattern was just a huge piece of atmospheric 00:09:40.070 --> 00:09:42.389 good fortune for the U .S. It's so important 00:09:42.389 --> 00:09:44.529 to point out though that even though the U .S. 00:09:44.710 --> 00:09:47.590 escaped a hurricane landfall, It wasn't completely 00:09:47.590 --> 00:09:49.970 untouched. That's a crucial distinction to make. 00:09:50.309 --> 00:09:53.309 We did have one named Storm Make Landfall. Tropical 00:09:53.309 --> 00:09:56.250 Storm Chantal. Right. Chantal came ashore in 00:09:56.250 --> 00:09:58.929 South Carolina on July 6th with winds around 00:09:58.929 --> 00:10:01.769 50 miles per hour. It wasn't a powerful system 00:10:01.769 --> 00:10:05.070 by any means, but it was a slow mover. It caused 00:10:05.070 --> 00:10:07.490 a lot of inland flooding, contributed to three 00:10:07.490 --> 00:10:09.929 deaths, and ended up causing about half a billion 00:10:09.929 --> 00:10:12.750 dollars in damages as it moved into North Carolina. 00:10:12.919 --> 00:10:15.320 But the really devastating coastal damage this 00:10:15.320 --> 00:10:17.700 year didn't come from a direct hit. It came from 00:10:17.700 --> 00:10:20.080 the raw power of those distant category fives 00:10:20.080 --> 00:10:22.500 churning up the ocean. That's right. Even from 00:10:22.500 --> 00:10:25.720 thousands of miles away, hurricanes Aaron, Humberto 00:10:25.720 --> 00:10:29.139 and Imelda generated these immense long period 00:10:29.139 --> 00:10:31.639 swells that pounded the U .S. East Coast for 00:10:31.639 --> 00:10:34.960 weeks. And that sustained wave action has been 00:10:34.960 --> 00:10:37.220 incredibly destructive, especially on the fragile 00:10:37.220 --> 00:10:39.620 barrier islands like the Outer Banks in North 00:10:39.620 --> 00:10:41.950 Carolina. We're seeing houses collapsing now 00:10:41.950 --> 00:10:44.309 from surf that was generated months ago. The 00:10:44.309 --> 00:10:46.789 research on this is dramatic. The erosion and 00:10:46.789 --> 00:10:48.710 the constant battering from the waves has been 00:10:48.710 --> 00:10:51.929 relentless. Since September 16th alone, those 00:10:51.929 --> 00:10:54.450 swells from the three distant titans have triggered 00:10:54.450 --> 00:10:57.389 the collapse of 16 beachfront homes along the 00:10:57.389 --> 00:11:00.990 outer banks. 16. And on one single day, September 00:11:00.990 --> 00:11:03.190 30th, five houses were lost at the same time, 00:11:03.570 --> 00:11:06.169 all driven by the energy from waves created by 00:11:06.169 --> 00:11:08.809 Emelda and Humberto. It's a costly reminder that 00:11:08.809 --> 00:11:10.990 you don't need a landfall to get catastrophic 00:11:10.990 --> 00:11:13.750 damage when the ocean is energized by these hiker 00:11:13.750 --> 00:11:16.330 intense storms far out at sea. And that brings 00:11:16.330 --> 00:11:18.950 us right to the heart of the 2025 season, that 00:11:18.950 --> 00:11:21.529 sheer intensity. The fact that the Atlantic produced 00:11:21.529 --> 00:11:24.690 three separate category five hurricanes, Aaron, 00:11:24.750 --> 00:11:27.389 Humberto and Melissa, is an extreme event in 00:11:27.389 --> 00:11:30.929 itself. It's genuinely rare. Historically speaking, 00:11:31.230 --> 00:11:33.870 only about three percent of all Atlantic tropical 00:11:33.870 --> 00:11:37.220 cyclones ever reach category five strength. This 00:11:37.220 --> 00:11:41.080 season now joins the infamous 2005 season as 00:11:41.080 --> 00:11:43.159 the only years on record to have three or more 00:11:43.159 --> 00:11:47.299 cat fives 2005 had Emily Katrina Rita and Wilma 00:11:47.470 --> 00:11:49.730 That was a season for the history books. It set 00:11:49.730 --> 00:11:52.509 an incredibly high bar for intensity and 2025 00:11:52.509 --> 00:11:54.889 came very, very close to matching it. Let's start 00:11:54.889 --> 00:11:56.850 with Aaron. The speed at which it strengthened 00:11:56.850 --> 00:11:59.070 was just alarming. It's a perfect example of 00:11:59.070 --> 00:12:01.549 this rapid intensification trend we keep seeing. 00:12:01.830 --> 00:12:03.490 Aaron's intensification wasn't just rapid. It 00:12:03.490 --> 00:12:06.149 was classified as extreme rapid intensification. 00:12:06.250 --> 00:12:08.889 It became the earliest cat five ever recorded 00:12:08.889 --> 00:12:10.850 outside of the Gulf of Mexico in the Caribbean. 00:12:11.250 --> 00:12:14.470 And the speed was historic. In just 24 hours, 00:12:14.649 --> 00:12:17.110 its winds exploded from 75 miles per hour. to 00:12:17.110 --> 00:12:19.929 160 miles per hour. Oh, an 85 mile per hour increase 00:12:19.929 --> 00:12:22.750 in one day. That jump is tied for the fifth fastest 00:12:22.750 --> 00:12:24.990 24 hour wind increase we have on record. And 00:12:24.990 --> 00:12:26.669 with winds that are strengthening that fast, 00:12:26.909 --> 00:12:29.129 the central pressure has to be just plummeting. 00:12:29.370 --> 00:12:32.210 Oh, absolutely. Aaron's central pressure dropped 00:12:32.210 --> 00:12:35.830 83 millibars in that same 24 hour window. It 00:12:35.830 --> 00:12:39.409 went from 998 down to 915. That kind of pressure 00:12:39.409 --> 00:12:42.210 drop is tied for the third fastest ever recorded 00:12:42.210 --> 00:12:45.210 in the Atlantic. It's a sign of a truly explosive 00:12:45.210 --> 00:12:48.250 process happening inside the storm's core. And 00:12:48.250 --> 00:12:50.610 then things got even stranger. We had two of 00:12:50.610 --> 00:12:53.330 these intense storms, Humberto and Imelda, get 00:12:53.330 --> 00:12:56.230 locked in this bizarre atmospheric dance, the 00:12:56.230 --> 00:12:59.149 Fujiwara effect. And that interaction actually 00:12:59.149 --> 00:13:01.269 played a direct role in protecting the U .S. 00:13:01.309 --> 00:13:03.769 The Fujiwara effect is fascinating. It's what 00:13:03.769 --> 00:13:06.009 happens when two tropical cyclones get close 00:13:06.009 --> 00:13:07.929 enough that they start to orbit a common center. 00:13:08.309 --> 00:13:10.549 In this case, we had category five Humberto and 00:13:10.549 --> 00:13:13.230 category two Imelda get within 465 miles of each 00:13:13.230 --> 00:13:15.259 other. That sounds close. It's very close. The 00:13:15.259 --> 00:13:16.639 interaction zone usually starts when they're 00:13:16.639 --> 00:13:20.059 about 800, 900 miles apart. So at 465 miles, 00:13:20.379 --> 00:13:21.980 their movements are completely dictated by each 00:13:21.980 --> 00:13:24.179 other. And Humberto was the bigger, more powerful 00:13:24.179 --> 00:13:26.720 storm, so it was in control. Right. Humberto 00:13:26.720 --> 00:13:29.039 was the dominant partner in the dance. Before 00:13:29.039 --> 00:13:31.519 they got that close, Imelda was on a track that 00:13:31.519 --> 00:13:34.179 made a U .S. landfall, probably in the Carolinas, 00:13:34.580 --> 00:13:37.259 look like a real possibility. But Humberto changed 00:13:37.259 --> 00:13:39.740 that. Humberto essentially grabbed Imelda. Its 00:13:39.740 --> 00:13:42.399 larger circulation started tugging on Imelda, 00:13:42.559 --> 00:13:44.559 steering it in a counterclockwise loop around 00:13:44.559 --> 00:13:47.259 its center, and that pulled Imelda out into the 00:13:47.259 --> 00:13:50.100 open Atlantic, away from the coast. So in this 00:13:50.100 --> 00:13:53.019 case, the Fujiwara effect acted as yet another 00:13:53.019 --> 00:13:55.759 steering mechanism that helped the U .S. dodge 00:13:55.759 --> 00:13:58.539 a bullet. It spared the U .S., but Imelda still 00:13:58.539 --> 00:14:01.639 hit other places hard. It did. As it curved away, 00:14:01.919 --> 00:14:04.720 the center of Imelda passed directly over Bermuda 00:14:04.720 --> 00:14:07.220 as a Category 2, and its outer bands brought 00:14:07.220 --> 00:14:09.299 devastating rain and flooding to the Dominican 00:14:09.299 --> 00:14:11.919 Republic, where tragically four people were killed. 00:14:12.460 --> 00:14:14.720 It just goes to show the storms that miss the 00:14:14.720 --> 00:14:18.259 US still have immense destructive power. So let's 00:14:18.259 --> 00:14:19.759 connect this all back to the broader climate 00:14:19.759 --> 00:14:22.500 picture. This season was defined by extreme power 00:14:22.500 --> 00:14:25.500 four out of five hurricanes becoming major. Does 00:14:25.500 --> 00:14:27.440 this fit with the scientific research on long 00:14:27.440 --> 00:14:30.059 term storm trends? If you look at the wider research, 00:14:30.080 --> 00:14:33.299 the answer is an unequivocal yes. For the last 00:14:33.299 --> 00:14:35.639 20 years, studies have consistently shown the 00:14:35.639 --> 00:14:38.659 same thing. While the global number of tropocylones 00:14:38.659 --> 00:14:40.799 isn't really increasing, the critical finding 00:14:40.799 --> 00:14:42.980 is that the fraction of those storms that reach 00:14:42.980 --> 00:14:45.700 the most destructive category four or five status 00:14:45.700 --> 00:14:48.500 is absolutely increasing, and it's projected 00:14:48.500 --> 00:14:51.519 to keep doing so. So the focus is shifting. It's 00:14:51.519 --> 00:14:54.100 less about preparing for more frequent storms 00:14:54.100 --> 00:14:57.059 and more about preparing for... less frequent, 00:14:57.200 --> 00:15:00.179 but overwhelmingly powerful events. Exactly. 00:15:00.480 --> 00:15:02.519 The risk is becoming more and more concentrated 00:15:02.519 --> 00:15:05.120 in those high -end categories. And this is directly 00:15:05.120 --> 00:15:07.639 tied to that phenomenon of rapid intensification. 00:15:07.860 --> 00:15:09.940 The numbers on that are staggering. They are. 00:15:10.080 --> 00:15:12.980 Just look at the data. Since 2003, We have seen 00:15:12.980 --> 00:15:15.720 a six -fold increase in what we call extreme 00:15:15.720 --> 00:15:18.620 rapid intensification events. We've had 18 of 00:15:18.620 --> 00:15:21.580 those events since 2003, compared to only three 00:15:21.580 --> 00:15:24.419 in the entire period from 1980 to 2002. Wow, 00:15:24.620 --> 00:15:27.200 a six -fold increase. It's a profound shift, 00:15:27.519 --> 00:15:29.720 and it suggests that the thermodynamic environment 00:15:29.720 --> 00:15:31.779 of the Atlantic is just becoming more and more 00:15:31.779 --> 00:15:34.059 favorable for these explosive processes to occur. 00:15:34.360 --> 00:15:37.039 And that terrifying physics brings us back to 00:15:37.039 --> 00:15:40.820 Hurricane Melissa. the third Cat 5, and the most 00:15:40.820 --> 00:15:43.220 devastating storm of the year anywhere in the 00:15:43.220 --> 00:15:46.000 world. What were the specific conditions that 00:15:46.000 --> 00:15:48.879 allowed Melissa to become so incredibly powerful? 00:15:49.379 --> 00:15:51.519 Melissa was born into a hyper -fueled environment. 00:15:52.379 --> 00:15:54.940 Research confirmed that over 80 % of the entire 00:15:54.940 --> 00:15:57.279 Atlantic basin had above -average ocean heat 00:15:57.279 --> 00:16:00.259 content this season. 80 %? And that ranked as 00:16:00.259 --> 00:16:02.500 the third highest ocean heat content we have 00:16:02.500 --> 00:16:06.399 on record, going all the way back to 1958. But 00:16:06.399 --> 00:16:09.100 crucially, This warmth wasn't just a thin layer 00:16:09.100 --> 00:16:12.019 on the surface. The heat extended deep down into 00:16:12.019 --> 00:16:14.279 the ocean. And why is that depth so critical 00:16:14.279 --> 00:16:17.120 for a storm to intensify? It all comes down to 00:16:17.120 --> 00:16:20.120 a process called upwelling. A powerful hurricane's 00:16:20.120 --> 00:16:22.679 winds are so strong they churn up the ocean surface. 00:16:22.899 --> 00:16:25.620 If the warm water layer is shallow, that churning 00:16:25.620 --> 00:16:28.000 will pull up cooler water from the depths. And 00:16:28.000 --> 00:16:30.580 that cooler water acts like a brake, weakening 00:16:30.580 --> 00:16:33.080 the storm. It's a natural self -breaking mechanism. 00:16:33.460 --> 00:16:36.379 But Melissa found a way to avoid that. The key 00:16:36.379 --> 00:16:39.039 was its location and the fact that it stalled. 00:16:39.480 --> 00:16:42.200 It underwent this explosive intensification and 00:16:42.200 --> 00:16:44.259 then it became nearly stationary for three full 00:16:44.259 --> 00:16:46.879 days to South of Jamaica. It was drifting at 00:16:46.879 --> 00:16:49.019 less than four miles per hour. A walking case. 00:16:49.259 --> 00:16:51.440 And this stall happened over an area where that 00:16:51.440 --> 00:16:54.419 deep warm water layer was incredibly thick. So 00:16:54.419 --> 00:16:56.360 even with the immense churning power of a category 00:16:56.360 --> 00:16:59.019 five, Melissa couldn't pull up any cool water. 00:16:59.340 --> 00:17:01.820 It was just parked over a virtually endless supply 00:17:01.820 --> 00:17:04.339 of high octane fuel, which allowed it to maintain 00:17:04.339 --> 00:17:06.559 that extreme intensity. And that's how it peaked 00:17:06.559 --> 00:17:09.880 at 185 mile per hour winds and a central pressure 00:17:09.880 --> 00:17:13.640 of 892 millibars. Those numbers put Melissa in 00:17:13.640 --> 00:17:15.880 the absolute top tier of Atlantic hurricanes. 00:17:16.240 --> 00:17:18.299 It's tied for the second strongest ever by wind 00:17:18.299 --> 00:17:21.200 speed and the third strongest by pressure in 00:17:21.200 --> 00:17:23.339 the entire history of the basin. We're talking 00:17:23.339 --> 00:17:25.759 about the maximum possible ferocity for a storm 00:17:25.759 --> 00:17:28.099 on this planet. And that power led to a tragic 00:17:28.099 --> 00:17:31.180 historic landfall in Jamaica on October 28th. 00:17:31.240 --> 00:17:33.660 It made landfall in southwest Jamaica as a category 00:17:33.660 --> 00:17:36.579 five, and the preliminary data shows it's tied 00:17:36.579 --> 00:17:40.440 with the infamous 1935 Labor Day hurricane as 00:17:40.440 --> 00:17:42.799 the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane 00:17:42.799 --> 00:17:46.259 on record. Strongest ever. By both wind and pressure. 00:17:47.079 --> 00:17:49.839 The impact was immediate and catastrophic, and 00:17:49.839 --> 00:17:52.640 it continued as the storm moved over Cuba, Haiti, 00:17:52.819 --> 00:17:55.559 and the Bahamas. One of the most incredible scientific 00:17:55.559 --> 00:17:58.279 takeaways from Melissa came from a storm chaser. 00:17:58.599 --> 00:18:01.220 There was hyperlocal data collected by someone 00:18:01.220 --> 00:18:03.920 on the ground in Crawford, Jamaica, just five 00:18:03.920 --> 00:18:06.460 nautical miles from the center. That ground level 00:18:06.460 --> 00:18:09.299 data is absolutely invaluable. It helps us calibrate 00:18:09.299 --> 00:18:11.039 what we're seeing from satellites and planes. 00:18:11.779 --> 00:18:14.059 This chaser was deep inside the radius of maximum 00:18:14.059 --> 00:18:16.339 winds in the inner right front quadrant of the 00:18:16.339 --> 00:18:18.900 eyewall. That is the most dangerous place to 00:18:18.900 --> 00:18:20.720 be in a hurricane. What did the pressure readings 00:18:20.720 --> 00:18:23.180 show from that location? The chaser recorded 00:18:23.180 --> 00:18:26.720 a minimum sea level pressure of 926 millibars. 00:18:27.299 --> 00:18:28.900 Now remember, the storm central pressure was 00:18:28.900 --> 00:18:31.779 estimated to be 892 millibars. So that's a 34 00:18:31.779 --> 00:18:35.359 millibar drop over just five miles. An absolutely 00:18:35.359 --> 00:18:38.619 staggering pressure gradient. The sheer force 00:18:38.619 --> 00:18:41.519 created by a gradient that steep is what drives 00:18:41.519 --> 00:18:43.960 those explosive wind speeds. And the physical 00:18:43.960 --> 00:18:46.200 descriptions. They sound like something out of 00:18:46.200 --> 00:18:49.079 science fiction. They noted 100 % whiteout conditions. 00:18:49.599 --> 00:18:52.380 Zero visibility from the rain and spray. And 00:18:52.380 --> 00:18:55.079 they described a continuous screaming sound. 00:18:55.759 --> 00:18:58.400 The physical toll was intense. The explosive 00:18:58.400 --> 00:19:01.319 wind gusts created actual pain in their eardrums. 00:19:01.359 --> 00:19:03.720 Did they get into the eye itself? They experienced 00:19:03.720 --> 00:19:06.009 the southeastern edge of it. After the pressure 00:19:06.009 --> 00:19:07.990 bottomed out, there was a sudden lull that lasted 00:19:07.990 --> 00:19:10.650 about 45 minutes. But what's really fascinating 00:19:10.650 --> 00:19:12.829 is that the pressure data during that core passage 00:19:12.829 --> 00:19:15.650 showed these highly volatile spikes and dips. 00:19:15.910 --> 00:19:18.170 And what does that tell us? Researchers believe 00:19:18.170 --> 00:19:20.589 those are the distinct fingerprints of inner 00:19:20.589 --> 00:19:22.750 eye wall mesovortices. Okay, can you explain 00:19:22.750 --> 00:19:25.170 what those are? Mistal vortices are essentially 00:19:25.170 --> 00:19:28.589 small, intense mini tornadoes that spin up within 00:19:28.589 --> 00:19:31.109 the main eye wall of a very powerful hurricane. 00:19:31.609 --> 00:19:34.009 They create these sudden violent increases in 00:19:34.009 --> 00:19:36.849 wind and localized drops in pressure, which is 00:19:36.849 --> 00:19:39.730 what causes those wild spikes in the data. They 00:19:39.730 --> 00:19:42.690 represent a huge jump in localized damage potential. 00:19:43.150 --> 00:19:45.670 Beyond the ground data, Melissa also set some 00:19:45.670 --> 00:19:48.250 new global records with our advanced technology. 00:19:48.549 --> 00:19:51.730 It really was a scientific crucible. A drop sonde 00:19:51.829 --> 00:19:53.829 An instrument dropped from a Hurricane Hunter 00:19:53.829 --> 00:19:57.829 plane measured a wind gust of 252 miles per hour. 00:19:58.190 --> 00:20:00.609 That is the highest wind gust ever measured globally 00:20:00.609 --> 00:20:03.490 by a drop sought. That single data point will 00:20:03.490 --> 00:20:05.809 change how we design buildings for extreme wind. 00:20:06.049 --> 00:20:08.109 And the lightning data was even more unbelievable. 00:20:08.309 --> 00:20:11.390 It was revolutionary. As Melissa was making landfall. 00:20:11.559 --> 00:20:14.380 Satellites recorded a peak flash rate of 700 00:20:14.380 --> 00:20:16.460 lightning strikes per minute inside the core. 00:20:16.779 --> 00:20:18.900 700 per minute. That's nearly 12 lightning strikes 00:20:18.900 --> 00:20:20.940 every single second. It completely rewrites our 00:20:20.940 --> 00:20:22.619 understanding of how much lightning is possible 00:20:22.619 --> 00:20:24.579 inside a hurricane. That terrifying science, 00:20:24.579 --> 00:20:27.259 of course, translated into unimaginable destruction. 00:20:28.160 --> 00:20:30.740 Let's pivot now from the physics to the catastrophic 00:20:30.740 --> 00:20:34.079 costs. The storm chaser on the ground who had 00:20:34.079 --> 00:20:37.319 personally been through 84 hurricanes said Melissa's 00:20:37.319 --> 00:20:39.640 winds were the most extreme they had ever witnessed. 00:20:39.849 --> 00:20:42.509 The damage was classified as catastrophic. What 00:20:42.509 --> 00:20:44.690 did that look like? The landscape analysis showed 00:20:44.690 --> 00:20:47.970 100 % defoliation of trees. Everything was stripped 00:20:47.970 --> 00:20:51.769 bare, leaving this wintry, dead, even burnt looking 00:20:51.769 --> 00:20:54.670 landscape behind. And buildings? Total failure. 00:20:55.269 --> 00:20:57.650 Wood frame houses were just flattened, gone. 00:20:58.470 --> 00:21:01.009 And critically, even concrete buildings, which 00:21:01.009 --> 00:21:03.049 are supposed to be hurricane resistant, suffered 00:21:03.049 --> 00:21:06.609 partial collapse or major roof failure. The research 00:21:06.609 --> 00:21:08.609 suggests that while the walls were concrete, 00:21:09.150 --> 00:21:11.130 the rebar reinforcement just wasn't enough to 00:21:11.130 --> 00:21:13.589 handle the pressure from 185 mile per hour winds. 00:21:14.269 --> 00:21:16.650 The economic cost for Jamaica is a number that's 00:21:16.650 --> 00:21:18.650 hard to even comprehend. It's a generational 00:21:18.650 --> 00:21:21.289 catastrophe. The World Bank estimates Melissa 00:21:21.289 --> 00:21:25.279 will cost Jamaica 8 .8 billion dollars. And put 00:21:25.279 --> 00:21:28.240 that in perspective, that is 41 percent of Jamaica's 00:21:28.240 --> 00:21:30.839 entire annual GDP. Almost half their economy 00:21:30.839 --> 00:21:33.500 wiped out by one storm. Few countries on Earth 00:21:33.500 --> 00:21:36.000 could withstand a blow like that. And while Haiti 00:21:36.000 --> 00:21:38.140 and Cuba also suffered major damage relative 00:21:38.140 --> 00:21:41.160 to their economies, Jamaica's hit was just brutal. 00:21:41.559 --> 00:21:44.240 And if we zoom out, these extreme weather events 00:21:44.240 --> 00:21:47.700 are fueling a growing global refugee crisis. 00:21:47.940 --> 00:21:50.720 The link between climate disruption and human 00:21:50.720 --> 00:21:53.779 displacement is just stark. Research from the 00:21:53.779 --> 00:21:56.059 UN High Commissioner for Refugees shows that 00:21:56.059 --> 00:21:58.720 over the last decade, climate -related disasters 00:21:58.720 --> 00:22:02.640 have displaced 250 million people. 250 million? 00:22:02.839 --> 00:22:06.599 That's 70 ,000 people a day, or two people forced 00:22:06.599 --> 00:22:08.799 to flee their homes every three seconds. And 00:22:08.799 --> 00:22:11.079 the people most at risk are those who are already 00:22:11.079 --> 00:22:13.559 vulnerable. Absolutely. The research shows that 00:22:13.559 --> 00:22:15.680 three out of every four refugees who are already 00:22:15.680 --> 00:22:18.099 displaced because of conflict are now living 00:22:18.099 --> 00:22:19.859 in countries that are highly exposed to these 00:22:19.859 --> 00:22:22.279 climate risks. It creates this heartbreaking 00:22:22.279 --> 00:22:24.660 cycle where people who have already fled violence 00:22:24.660 --> 00:22:27.380 are at an incredibly high risk of being forced 00:22:27.380 --> 00:22:29.619 to flee all over again by a storm like Melissa. 00:22:29.920 --> 00:22:32.599 But against that backdrop of catastrophic failure 00:22:32.599 --> 00:22:35.839 in Jamaica, we saw this really powerful example 00:22:35.839 --> 00:22:38.539 of local resilience, specifically with energy. 00:22:38.859 --> 00:22:41.880 This was a critical bright spot. Most of Jamaica's 00:22:41.880 --> 00:22:44.319 centralized power grid relies on imported oil 00:22:44.319 --> 00:22:47.240 and gas, which is very vulnerable in a storm. 00:22:47.470 --> 00:22:50.809 But after Melissa hit, we saw that rooftop solar 00:22:50.809 --> 00:22:53.509 panels paired with batteries kept essential services 00:22:53.509 --> 00:22:56.549 running for many people, in stark contrast to 00:22:56.549 --> 00:22:59.309 the total failure of the main grid. This is more 00:22:59.309 --> 00:23:01.750 than just a nice story. It represents a new model 00:23:01.750 --> 00:23:04.150 for energy security in these vulnerable regions. 00:23:04.529 --> 00:23:07.210 It really is the model for the future. We learned 00:23:07.210 --> 00:23:09.029 this lesson from Puerto Rico after Hurricane 00:23:09.029 --> 00:23:12.549 Maria in 2017. It took six months to restore 00:23:12.549 --> 00:23:15.849 power to most of the island. Now, labs like Oak 00:23:15.849 --> 00:23:18.230 Ridge National Lab are pioneering the use of 00:23:18.230 --> 00:23:21.710 microgrids, small local power grids with solar 00:23:21.710 --> 00:23:24.089 and battery storage that are designed to operate 00:23:24.089 --> 00:23:26.349 independently when the main grid goes down. So 00:23:26.349 --> 00:23:29.970 you shift the focus from repairing massive transmission 00:23:29.970 --> 00:23:32.170 lines to just keeping a neighborhood online. 00:23:32.450 --> 00:23:34.789 And the benefit is immediate. As one energy expert 00:23:34.789 --> 00:23:36.970 said, if I have rooftop solar and batteries, 00:23:37.049 --> 00:23:39.089 and if I can keep my refrigerator running, my 00:23:39.089 --> 00:23:41.539 entire neighborhood benefits. It's about maintaining 00:23:41.539 --> 00:23:44.339 those essential local services. That's true resilience. 00:23:44.640 --> 00:23:46.720 Shifting gears to the technology that helps us 00:23:46.720 --> 00:23:49.180 track these storms. We have to talk about the 00:23:49.180 --> 00:23:51.400 work of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 00:23:51.400 --> 00:23:54.640 Administration's hurricane hunters. Those P3 00:23:54.640 --> 00:23:58.119 Orion crews are mission critical. They fly directly 00:23:58.119 --> 00:24:00.579 into the core of these storms to deploy the drop 00:24:00.579 --> 00:24:03.039 sawns and drones that give us the data we need 00:24:03.039 --> 00:24:06.200 for watches and warnings. They were in Aaron, 00:24:06.460 --> 00:24:08.710 Imelda, and Melissa this year. And there was 00:24:08.710 --> 00:24:10.809 a bigger reliance on drone technology this year, 00:24:10.849 --> 00:24:13.150 wasn't there? There was. They deployed 18 of 00:24:13.150 --> 00:24:15.910 these specialized black swift drones right into 00:24:15.910 --> 00:24:18.809 the cores of the storms. And they tested a critical 00:24:18.809 --> 00:24:21.730 new science strategy during Gabriel and Imelda. 00:24:22.049 --> 00:24:24.710 What was the goal with that new strategy? The 00:24:24.710 --> 00:24:26.829 goal was to fly a drone just above the ocean 00:24:26.829 --> 00:24:29.589 surface, right near a wave buoy. The data from 00:24:29.589 --> 00:24:31.730 that lowest layer of the atmosphere is incredibly 00:24:31.730 --> 00:24:34.730 hard to get, but it's vital. Scientists need 00:24:34.730 --> 00:24:37.190 it to better understand how energy, the heat 00:24:37.190 --> 00:24:39.369 and moisture is exchanged between the warm ocean 00:24:39.369 --> 00:24:42.650 and the storm. That friction layer is the engine 00:24:42.650 --> 00:24:45.029 room of a hurricane. The better we understand 00:24:45.029 --> 00:24:46.990 it, the better our intensity forecast will get. 00:24:47.269 --> 00:24:50.650 And speaking of forecasting, 2025 was a monumental 00:24:50.650 --> 00:24:53.309 year for the industry. We saw the debut of a 00:24:53.309 --> 00:24:56.190 new AI model that just blew away the conventional 00:24:56.190 --> 00:24:58.369 systems. It's fascinating because the conventional 00:24:58.369 --> 00:25:01.130 physics -based models really struggled with all 00:25:01.130 --> 00:25:03.869 the rapid intensification events this year. But 00:25:03.869 --> 00:25:06.210 the postseason analysis showed the remarkable 00:25:06.210 --> 00:25:09.970 success of the new Google DeepMind AI model, 00:25:10.529 --> 00:25:12.930 the GDMI. It wasn't just good. It was the leader 00:25:12.930 --> 00:25:15.329 of the pack. It was unprecedented for a brand 00:25:15.329 --> 00:25:18.430 new model. The GDMI outperformed all the conventional 00:25:18.430 --> 00:25:21.490 models. For track forecasting, predicting where 00:25:21.490 --> 00:25:25.009 the storm will go, it either beat or tied the 00:25:25.009 --> 00:25:27.789 official National Hurricane Center forecast at 00:25:27.789 --> 00:25:30.349 every single lead time. And for intensity. It 00:25:30.349 --> 00:25:32.650 was highly competitive there too, nearly on par 00:25:32.650 --> 00:25:34.769 with the National Hurricane Center's best efforts. 00:25:35.109 --> 00:25:37.869 So why is an AI model, which is just trained 00:25:37.869 --> 00:25:40.450 on data, suddenly able to do better than models 00:25:40.450 --> 00:25:42.890 built on decades of atmospheric physics? The 00:25:42.890 --> 00:25:45.369 physics models are robust, but they struggle 00:25:45.369 --> 00:25:48.890 with chaotic, non -linear events like rapid intensification. 00:25:49.990 --> 00:25:52.890 The GDMI model is different. It's a data -driven 00:25:52.890 --> 00:25:56.059 model. It was trained on decades of storm histories 00:25:56.059 --> 00:25:59.099 and atmospheric data, and it learns to recognize 00:25:59.099 --> 00:26:01.380 complex patterns that lead to certain outcomes. 00:26:01.859 --> 00:26:04.000 That pattern recognition allowed it to anticipate 00:26:04.000 --> 00:26:07.019 the explosive leap in intensity far better than 00:26:07.019 --> 00:26:09.160 the traditional models could. So a new model 00:26:09.160 --> 00:26:11.859 leading in both track and intensity, that's a 00:26:11.859 --> 00:26:14.500 huge shift for the entire weather industry. It 00:26:14.500 --> 00:26:17.099 signals a profound revolution. The fact that 00:26:17.099 --> 00:26:20.019 a deep learning AI model could immediately outperform 00:26:20.019 --> 00:26:22.640 models that have been refined for decades tells 00:26:22.640 --> 00:26:24.460 you that artificial intelligence is about to 00:26:24.460 --> 00:26:26.920 fundamentally change how we forecast these storms. 00:26:27.579 --> 00:26:29.440 Let's bring it back home now to the institutional 00:26:29.440 --> 00:26:32.259 side of things. This statistically miraculous 00:26:32.259 --> 00:26:34.700 U .S. escape happened at a time when, according 00:26:34.700 --> 00:26:36.980 to research, our own federal agencies were in 00:26:36.980 --> 00:26:39.440 a state of operational weakness. And this raises 00:26:39.440 --> 00:26:42.359 a critical question of preparedness versus just 00:26:42.359 --> 00:26:45.339 sheer luck. Research indicates that both FEMA 00:26:45.339 --> 00:26:48.339 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 00:26:48.500 --> 00:26:51.839 or NOAA, entered the 2025 season in weakened 00:26:51.839 --> 00:26:54.980 states. This was mostly due to losing a lot of 00:26:54.980 --> 00:26:57.440 experienced staff over the last few years. And 00:26:57.440 --> 00:26:59.720 what does losing that experienced staff mean 00:26:59.720 --> 00:27:02.240 for an agency like the National Weather Service, 00:27:02.279 --> 00:27:04.680 which is part of NOAA? The impact is severe. 00:27:05.259 --> 00:27:07.779 When veteran forecasters leave, they take years 00:27:07.779 --> 00:27:10.460 of specialized, localized knowledge with them. 00:27:10.599 --> 00:27:13.420 You can't replace that overnight. Managers were 00:27:13.420 --> 00:27:15.880 trying to hire, but the federal process is slow 00:27:15.880 --> 00:27:19.279 and new staff need months of training. It creates 00:27:19.279 --> 00:27:22.119 gaps in institutional memory that can be dangerous 00:27:22.119 --> 00:27:24.720 during a high -stress event. On top of the staffing 00:27:24.720 --> 00:27:26.960 issues, there was also the very real threat of 00:27:26.960 --> 00:27:28.839 a government shutdown right in the middle of 00:27:28.839 --> 00:27:31.619 hurricane season. That shutdown risk was a huge 00:27:31.619 --> 00:27:34.500 administrative headwind. Now the core forecasters 00:27:34.500 --> 00:27:36.299 at the National Hurricane Center are considered 00:27:36.299 --> 00:27:38.519 essential so they would keep working. though 00:27:38.519 --> 00:27:40.880 without pay. The real disruption would hit the 00:27:40.880 --> 00:27:43.240 response and mitigation efforts, especially at 00:27:43.240 --> 00:27:45.539 FEMA. How would FEMA be compromised in a shutdown? 00:27:46.019 --> 00:27:48.940 FEMA relies on a huge support staff for logistics, 00:27:49.420 --> 00:27:52.119 processing aid, coordinating with states. And 00:27:52.119 --> 00:27:54.579 those people are often the first to be furloughed. 00:27:54.779 --> 00:27:56.759 So the forecasters could be issuing warnings, 00:27:57.079 --> 00:27:59.460 but the administrative machine needed to actually 00:27:59.460 --> 00:28:02.000 mobilize resources and help people would grind 00:28:02.000 --> 00:28:05.099 to a halt. So the whole response infrastructure 00:28:05.099 --> 00:28:08.730 was fragile. Exactly. The key takeaway from 2025 00:28:08.730 --> 00:28:11.470 is that the U .S. was exceptionally statistically 00:28:11.470 --> 00:28:14.250 fortunate not to be tested. We were spared a 00:28:14.250 --> 00:28:16.730 major hurricane landfall at the exact moment 00:28:16.730 --> 00:28:19.069 our critical agencies were battling these significant 00:28:19.069 --> 00:28:21.549 internal struggles. The atmosphere gave us a 00:28:21.549 --> 00:28:24.190 shield. As we look ahead to 2026, the forecast 00:28:24.190 --> 00:28:26.529 is all about balancing two conflicting factors. 00:28:27.230 --> 00:28:29.509 On one hand, we have the potential for an El 00:28:29.509 --> 00:28:31.750 Nino event to develop. Which usually means a 00:28:31.750 --> 00:28:34.170 quieter Atlantic season. Right. El Nino increases 00:28:34.170 --> 00:28:36.589 wind shear. which tear storms apart. So that 00:28:36.589 --> 00:28:38.710 would suggest a quieter season. But on the other 00:28:38.710 --> 00:28:41.190 side of scale, you have the incredible statistical 00:28:41.190 --> 00:28:44.690 anomaly we just witnessed. Precisely. It is highly, 00:28:44.930 --> 00:28:47.970 highly unusual to go two consecutive years without 00:28:47.970 --> 00:28:50.170 a U .S. hurricane landfall. It only happened 00:28:50.170 --> 00:28:53.130 six times since 1851. So the odds are not in 00:28:53.130 --> 00:28:55.670 our favor for a repeat. So the big question for 00:28:55.670 --> 00:28:59.369 you to think about is this. In 2026, will the 00:28:59.369 --> 00:29:01.670 large scale atmospheric patterns give us another 00:29:01.670 --> 00:29:04.890 lucky break? Or will our institutional preparedness 00:29:04.890 --> 00:29:07.710 be the only thing standing between us and the 00:29:07.710 --> 00:29:10.210 statistical certainty of a major hurricane landfall? 00:29:10.589 --> 00:29:12.710 You've been listening to Meteorology Matters, 00:29:12.710 --> 00:29:15.349 created by meteorologist Rob Jones. Now that 00:29:15.349 --> 00:29:17.829 you've heard both our English and Spanish versions, 00:29:17.869 --> 00:29:20.329 we really want your feedback. Is this bilingual 00:29:20.329 --> 00:29:22.089 approach helping more people connect with the 00:29:22.089 --> 00:29:24.490 science, or just making things messy? Don't stay 00:29:24.490 --> 00:29:26.390 quiet, jump on our socials and let us know what 00:29:26.390 --> 00:29:28.710 you think. Like it, share it, drop a comment, 00:29:28.809 --> 00:29:31.089 or send us a message directly. Your reaction's 00:29:31.089 --> 00:29:33.539 good, bad, or brutal. will shape how we move 00:29:33.539 --> 00:29:36.079 forward. Thanks for listening, and remember, 00:29:36.480 --> 00:29:38.960 the weather always matters, but so does your 00:29:38.960 --> 00:29:39.339 opinion.