WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.100 OK, let's get straight to it. We have an urgent 00:00:02.100 --> 00:00:04.919 situation report on Hurricane Melissa. As of 00:00:04.919 --> 00:00:07.240 the 2 p .m. Eastern Daylight Time update today, 00:00:07.740 --> 00:00:10.900 that's Monday, October 27th. Melissa is still 00:00:10.900 --> 00:00:14.060 an utterly devastating Category 5 storm. Just 00:00:14.060 --> 00:00:16.519 unbelievable intensity. We're seeing sustained 00:00:16.519 --> 00:00:20.239 winds clocked at 175 miles per hour. And that's 00:00:20.239 --> 00:00:23.660 central pressure. 906 millibars confirms just 00:00:23.660 --> 00:00:25.940 how powerful this system is. It really does. 00:00:26.699 --> 00:00:29.640 The core right now is located about 145 miles 00:00:29.640 --> 00:00:31.780 southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. And the critical 00:00:31.780 --> 00:00:35.280 thing, it's moving so slowly, agonizingly slow, 00:00:35.700 --> 00:00:38.179 three miles per hour to the west northwest. Which 00:00:38.179 --> 00:00:40.460 means, unfortunately, the catastrophic impacts 00:00:40.460 --> 00:00:42.899 aren't just approaching. They are actually starting 00:00:42.899 --> 00:00:46.140 right now. Exactly. The core is forecast to move 00:00:46.140 --> 00:00:49.299 near or even directly over the island tonight 00:00:49.299 --> 00:00:52.130 and right through early Tuesday. A really dangerous 00:00:52.130 --> 00:00:54.909 situation unfolding. Welcome to Meteorology Matters, 00:00:54.950 --> 00:00:57.030 the podcast that dives deep into the science, 00:00:57.170 --> 00:00:59.329 chaos, and stories behind the weather that shapes 00:00:59.329 --> 00:01:01.710 our world. This show was created by meteorologist 00:01:01.710 --> 00:01:03.570 Rob Jones, and we're doing something new this 00:01:03.570 --> 00:01:05.670 season, offering every episode in English and 00:01:05.670 --> 00:01:07.450 Spanish. Yeah, that's right. Same stories, two 00:01:07.450 --> 00:01:09.930 languages. Why? Well, because weather impacts 00:01:09.930 --> 00:01:12.049 everyone, and science should speak to all of 00:01:12.049 --> 00:01:13.950 us. But here's where you come in. We really want 00:01:13.950 --> 00:01:16.010 to know what you think. Is this bilingual setup 00:01:16.010 --> 00:01:19.349 awesome? A bit confusing, maybe totally unnecessary. 00:01:19.450 --> 00:01:21.629 Tell us straight up on social media, comment, 00:01:21.870 --> 00:01:24.370 like, share, or DM us and let it rip. We need 00:01:24.370 --> 00:01:27.010 that feedback. Absolutely. Now let's get into 00:01:27.010 --> 00:01:30.090 today's episode of Meteorology Matters. Our mission 00:01:30.090 --> 00:01:33.250 today, it's focused entirely on analyzing the 00:01:33.250 --> 00:01:36.189 meteorological data we have and looking at the 00:01:36.189 --> 00:01:38.430 preparedness efforts around Hurricane Melissa. 00:01:39.030 --> 00:01:41.390 This storm. Well, it's arguably become the most 00:01:41.390 --> 00:01:44.769 historically serious system of this 2025 season. 00:01:44.849 --> 00:01:47.150 So we're going to unpack that data, try to understand 00:01:47.150 --> 00:01:49.510 the precise nature of the threat Jamaica and 00:01:49.510 --> 00:01:51.569 really the wider Caribbean is facing right now. 00:01:51.790 --> 00:01:53.790 Exactly. All right. When we talk category five, 00:01:53.930 --> 00:01:56.590 people often just hear the wind speed, 175 miles 00:01:56.590 --> 00:01:59.810 per hour. But to really grasp Melissa's power, 00:01:59.829 --> 00:02:03.019 we have to look inside at its structure. As of 00:02:03.019 --> 00:02:07.799 2 p .m., it's near 16 .5 north, 78 .3 west. What 00:02:07.799 --> 00:02:10.180 are the key structural things revealing the storm's 00:02:10.180 --> 00:02:12.360 violence? Well, what's really striking here is 00:02:12.360 --> 00:02:14.960 how Melissa shows that classic visual signature 00:02:14.960 --> 00:02:18.120 of a tremendously powerful hurricane. If you 00:02:18.120 --> 00:02:19.699 were to look at the satellite imagery right now, 00:02:19.800 --> 00:02:22.500 you'd see a small, incredibly well -defined eye. 00:02:22.580 --> 00:02:24.960 It's only about 10 nautical miles wide. Wow, 00:02:24.960 --> 00:02:27.360 that's small. Yeah, in that tight constriction, 00:02:27.460 --> 00:02:29.419 it means the wind speeds are forced into this 00:02:29.419 --> 00:02:32.319 incredibly concentrated, violent area right around 00:02:32.319 --> 00:02:35.020 the center. And surrounding that eye is what 00:02:35.020 --> 00:02:37.439 meteorologists call the central dense overcast, 00:02:37.580 --> 00:02:40.419 or the CDO. OK, break that down. What does the 00:02:40.419 --> 00:02:43.729 CDO tell us? The CDO, it's essentially this dense, 00:02:43.990 --> 00:02:46.530 pretty symmetrical shield of high cirrus clouds. 00:02:46.889 --> 00:02:49.469 It indicates extreme outflow, air flowing out 00:02:49.469 --> 00:02:51.810 from the storm high up in the atmosphere. And 00:02:51.810 --> 00:02:54.710 the cloud tops in Melissa's CDO, they're registering 00:02:54.710 --> 00:02:57.409 temperatures colder than negative 80 degrees 00:02:57.409 --> 00:03:01.590 Celsius. That's incredibly cold. It is. And that 00:03:01.590 --> 00:03:03.870 depth, that intensity of convection, the constant 00:03:03.870 --> 00:03:06.870 rising of warm, moist air fueling the storm, 00:03:07.129 --> 00:03:09.409 it means the heat engine driving Melissa is operating 00:03:09.409 --> 00:03:12.210 at absolute peak efficiency. It's a highly potent, 00:03:12.550 --> 00:03:14.870 extremely well organized, and frankly, an incredibly 00:03:14.870 --> 00:03:18.030 violent system. And compounding all that internal 00:03:18.030 --> 00:03:20.449 power is the fact that it's barely moving, just 00:03:20.449 --> 00:03:22.490 sort of wobbling along at three miles per hour. 00:03:23.110 --> 00:03:26.530 That slow crawl over very warm waters must be 00:03:26.530 --> 00:03:29.449 just... feeding it, prolonging the disaster. 00:03:30.490 --> 00:03:32.969 But the forecast does call for a change, right? 00:03:32.990 --> 00:03:35.030 A critical path change. That's right. What's 00:03:35.030 --> 00:03:36.969 supposed to finally steer this thing? Well, that 00:03:36.969 --> 00:03:39.030 slow initial movement, it's mainly because of 00:03:39.030 --> 00:03:41.490 weak steering currents, specifically a mid -level 00:03:41.490 --> 00:03:44.189 ridge of high pressure that's been sitting north 00:03:44.189 --> 00:03:47.389 of Melissa, kind of acting like a block. But 00:03:47.389 --> 00:03:49.879 forecasters are really banking on a significant 00:03:49.879 --> 00:03:53.219 atmospheric shift. We're expecting a deep -layer, 00:03:53.340 --> 00:03:55.719 mid -latitude trough. Which is like a big dip 00:03:55.719 --> 00:03:57.840 in the jet stream. Exactly. A significant dip 00:03:57.840 --> 00:03:59.699 in the jet stream. It's moving eastward through 00:03:59.699 --> 00:04:02.139 the southeastern U .S. right now, and that is 00:04:02.139 --> 00:04:04.460 expected to become the dominant steering influence. 00:04:04.719 --> 00:04:06.939 So let me see if I get this. This incoming trough 00:04:06.939 --> 00:04:09.460 is going to sort of scoop Melissa up. Precisely. 00:04:09.659 --> 00:04:14.319 As that blocking ridge weakens, the strong southwesterly 00:04:14.319 --> 00:04:16.819 flow ahead of that big trough will grab hold 00:04:16.819 --> 00:04:19.500 of Melissa. That should start a turn towards 00:04:19.500 --> 00:04:22.139 the north, probably in the next 12 to 24 hours. 00:04:22.800 --> 00:04:25.259 And after that initial turn, the storm should 00:04:25.259 --> 00:04:27.420 finally accelerate off toward the northeast. 00:04:27.839 --> 00:04:30.160 It'll pick up speed significantly as it gets 00:04:30.160 --> 00:04:33.019 caught in that broader atmospheric flow. And 00:04:33.019 --> 00:04:36.610 the acceleration is key. Right, that's what potentially 00:04:36.610 --> 00:04:40.649 spares islands further west from the same prolonged 00:04:40.649 --> 00:04:43.069 agony Jamaica is facing. Exactly, it gets it 00:04:43.069 --> 00:04:45.910 moving. Okay, so while that acceleration is forecast 00:04:45.910 --> 00:04:48.870 eventually, first, Melissa has already carved 00:04:48.870 --> 00:04:51.610 its name into the history books for the 2025 00:04:51.610 --> 00:04:54.509 Atlantic season. And it highlights a really frightening 00:04:54.509 --> 00:04:57.550 trend. It really has. And this is where the analytical 00:04:57.550 --> 00:04:59.689 insight becomes critical. Melissa underwent what 00:04:59.689 --> 00:05:02.750 we specifically call extreme rapid intensification 00:05:02.750 --> 00:05:05.189 over the weekend. Define that for us again. That's 00:05:05.189 --> 00:05:07.889 when its maximum sustained winds increase by 00:05:07.889 --> 00:05:10.829 35 knots. That's about 40 miles per hour or more 00:05:10.829 --> 00:05:14.170 within just a 24 hour period. Wow. It just showcases 00:05:14.170 --> 00:05:16.449 the extreme energy that's available in the atmosphere 00:05:16.449 --> 00:05:19.689 and crucially in the oceans right now. But the 00:05:19.689 --> 00:05:22.209 truly sobering fact, the headline really, is 00:05:22.209 --> 00:05:25.529 its category. Melissa is the third category five 00:05:25.529 --> 00:05:28.490 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. The third 00:05:28.490 --> 00:05:31.839 cat five this year. Yes. And that single statistic 00:05:31.839 --> 00:05:35.279 puts 2025 in second place, historically, for 00:05:35.279 --> 00:05:38.019 the most category five storms in a single season. 00:05:38.240 --> 00:05:40.800 It's trailing only the monstrous 2005 season. 00:05:40.980 --> 00:05:43.339 2005, I remember that season well. Katrina, Rita, 00:05:43.560 --> 00:05:46.500 Wilma. Exactly. 2005 had four category five storms. 00:05:47.180 --> 00:05:49.199 So can you walk us through what that comparison 00:05:49.199 --> 00:05:51.540 means, having three cap fives already this year. 00:05:52.040 --> 00:05:53.779 What does that tell us about the conditions out 00:05:53.779 --> 00:05:56.639 there? Well, 2005 really set the modern benchmark 00:05:56.639 --> 00:05:59.379 for just hyperactive hurricane seasons. It had 00:05:59.379 --> 00:06:02.060 28 named storms in total. No, we haven't reached 00:06:02.060 --> 00:06:04.300 that total storm count this year. Not yet, anyway. 00:06:04.879 --> 00:06:07.759 But having three storms reach category five intensity 00:06:07.759 --> 00:06:10.259 suggests that the fuel, the thermal energy in 00:06:10.259 --> 00:06:13.000 the ocean water, is exceptionally high. It means 00:06:13.000 --> 00:06:15.540 conditions are allowing storms not just to form, 00:06:15.759 --> 00:06:17.959 but to sustain themselves and rapidly achieve 00:06:17.959 --> 00:06:20.339 that absolute top tier intensity. It implies 00:06:20.339 --> 00:06:22.639 the environment is just ripe for these extreme 00:06:22.639 --> 00:06:24.689 events. It really does. It suggests, you know, 00:06:24.810 --> 00:06:26.970 maybe a significant shift in the climate's capacity 00:06:26.970 --> 00:06:29.189 to generate storms of this magnitude. It's something 00:06:29.189 --> 00:06:31.449 researchers are looking at very closely. And 00:06:31.449 --> 00:06:33.910 to really understand this intensity sometimes 00:06:33.910 --> 00:06:36.290 you have to look past the numbers and focus on 00:06:36.290 --> 00:06:38.670 the Well, the sheer physical force involved. 00:06:39.250 --> 00:06:41.389 We have a really compelling story from the research 00:06:41.389 --> 00:06:43.389 about the hurricane hunters. What happened when 00:06:43.389 --> 00:06:45.750 they flew into Melissa? Right. This anecdote 00:06:45.750 --> 00:06:48.490 really illustrates the violence inside that storm 00:06:48.490 --> 00:06:51.230 better than almost any wind speed reading. Both 00:06:51.230 --> 00:06:53.629 the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and the 00:06:53.629 --> 00:06:56.009 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 00:06:56.110 --> 00:06:59.889 NOAA, their P -3 research aircraft were flying 00:06:59.889 --> 00:07:02.329 missions into Melissa. And these planes are built 00:07:02.329 --> 00:07:04.519 tough, right? designed for this. Absolutely. 00:07:04.759 --> 00:07:07.720 They're robust, specifically engineered to handle 00:07:07.720 --> 00:07:10.860 the stresses inside hurricanes. Yet during one 00:07:10.860 --> 00:07:13.360 of the penetrations into the eyewall, the NOAA 00:07:13.360 --> 00:07:16.019 P -3 aircraft actually had to abort its mission 00:07:16.019 --> 00:07:19.339 early. They had to turn back. Abort? Why? They 00:07:19.339 --> 00:07:22.019 encountered such severe turbulence in the southwestern 00:07:22.019 --> 00:07:24.180 eyewall. It was just too violent. It jeopardized 00:07:24.180 --> 00:07:26.199 not only the data collection, but the actual 00:07:26.199 --> 00:07:28.699 safety of the crew on board. Wow. They were forced 00:07:28.699 --> 00:07:31.240 to exit the storm's core prematurely. So when 00:07:31.240 --> 00:07:33.850 a plane specifically for extreme weather basically 00:07:33.850 --> 00:07:36.490 says nope too much that tells you everything 00:07:36.490 --> 00:07:39.290 and they recorded the pressure dropping to near 00:07:39.290 --> 00:07:43.110 906 908 millibars right before they had to leave 00:07:43.110 --> 00:07:46.480 exactly That pressure reading confirms the category 00:07:46.480 --> 00:07:49.680 five strength, and the severe turbulence confirms 00:07:49.680 --> 00:07:52.600 the sheer violence, the extreme wind shear, the 00:07:52.600 --> 00:07:55.600 powerful updrafts within that really tight concentric 00:07:55.600 --> 00:07:58.620 eyewall. It was simply too much for even that 00:07:58.620 --> 00:08:01.339 specialized aircraft. It forced them out. Incredible. 00:08:01.560 --> 00:08:03.660 Okay, looking ahead just slightly, there's some 00:08:03.660 --> 00:08:06.319 talk among forecasters that Melissa might fluctuate 00:08:06.319 --> 00:08:08.480 a bit in intensity. Maybe undergo something called 00:08:08.480 --> 00:08:11.180 an eyewall replacement cycle in the next, say, 00:08:11.279 --> 00:08:15.180 12 to 24 hours. Listeners, what exactly is an 00:08:15.180 --> 00:08:17.779 eyewall replacement cycle? And why might it offer 00:08:17.779 --> 00:08:20.740 just a tiny temporary reprieve? Right. An eyewall 00:08:20.740 --> 00:08:23.120 replacement cycle, or ERC, typically happens 00:08:23.120 --> 00:08:25.480 in very intense hurricanes like Melissa. What 00:08:25.480 --> 00:08:28.040 happens is the original tight inner eyewall starts 00:08:28.040 --> 00:08:31.139 to weaken and collapse. At the same time, a new 00:08:31.139 --> 00:08:33.820 outer ring of thunderstorms, a new eyewall essentially, 00:08:34.240 --> 00:08:36.500 forms around the old one. OK. So it's like the 00:08:36.500 --> 00:08:39.120 storm is reorganizing. Kind of, yeah. And during 00:08:39.120 --> 00:08:41.740 this process, the storm often weakens temporarily 00:08:41.740 --> 00:08:44.220 because its energy is spread over a wider area 00:08:44.220 --> 00:08:46.539 as that outer eye wall develops. So the storm 00:08:46.539 --> 00:08:48.940 might temporarily widen and maybe drop slightly 00:08:48.940 --> 00:08:51.840 in wind speed. Yes, but, and this is the crucial 00:08:51.840 --> 00:08:54.519 point, it's usually only temporary. Once that 00:08:54.519 --> 00:08:57.200 inner eye wall completely dissipates and the 00:08:57.200 --> 00:09:00.100 new, larger outer eye wall contracts and takes 00:09:00.100 --> 00:09:03.620 over, the storm often re -intensifies. Sometimes 00:09:03.620 --> 00:09:06.000 it even reaches a higher peak intensity afterwards. 00:09:06.379 --> 00:09:08.360 But here's the critical insight, the thing that 00:09:08.360 --> 00:09:11.129 matters most for Jamaica right now. Experts are 00:09:11.129 --> 00:09:13.690 very clear there is no practical difference in 00:09:13.690 --> 00:09:16.529 the impact if Melissa makes landfall as a very 00:09:16.529 --> 00:09:18.950 high -end category four or a category five. Right 00:09:18.950 --> 00:09:21.450 at that level the destruction is already guaranteed 00:09:21.450 --> 00:09:23.690 to be catastrophic. Exactly the difference is 00:09:23.690 --> 00:09:26.169 academic at that point. Jamaica is going to be 00:09:26.169 --> 00:09:29.090 impacted by an extremely powerful major hurricane 00:09:29.090 --> 00:09:31.429 regardless of whether it undergoes a temporary 00:09:31.429 --> 00:09:33.950 ERC or not. Okay so let's connect that intensity 00:09:33.950 --> 00:09:37.409 forecast directly to Jamaica's geography because 00:09:37.409 --> 00:09:39.649 that combination seems to be creating a truly 00:09:39.720 --> 00:09:41.740 worst -case scenario. It really is. You have 00:09:41.740 --> 00:09:44.460 the extreme winds, the slow speed, which just 00:09:44.460 --> 00:09:47.139 maximizes rainfall duration. And then you have 00:09:47.139 --> 00:09:50.159 Jamaica's highly mountainous terrain. It's a 00:09:50.159 --> 00:09:52.440 perfect storm, quite literally, for catastrophic 00:09:52.440 --> 00:09:55.519 hazards on multiple fronts. Jamaica is bracing 00:09:55.519 --> 00:09:58.919 for an assault from wind, rain, and sea. Let's 00:09:58.919 --> 00:10:01.919 tackle the wind first. Tropical storm conditions 00:10:01.919 --> 00:10:04.539 are already being felt. We know that. But the 00:10:04.539 --> 00:10:08.120 catastrophic hurricane force wins. They begin 00:10:08.120 --> 00:10:11.120 tonight and will hammer the island into early 00:10:11.120 --> 00:10:14.460 Tuesday. And the threat isn't just damage, it's 00:10:14.460 --> 00:10:16.700 total structural failure in some areas. And this 00:10:16.700 --> 00:10:18.580 is where that topography becomes so critical. 00:10:19.059 --> 00:10:21.659 Jamaica's mountainous spine, it actually amplifies 00:10:21.659 --> 00:10:24.210 the wind hazard significantly. Research shows 00:10:24.210 --> 00:10:26.470 that wind speeds right atop the hills and mountains, 00:10:26.730 --> 00:10:28.889 and especially on the windward -facing slopes, 00:10:29.309 --> 00:10:31.990 could be amplified by up to 30 % compared to 00:10:31.990 --> 00:10:33.769 the winds measured over flat ground near the 00:10:33.769 --> 00:10:37.129 surface. 30 % amplification. So on top of 175 00:10:37.129 --> 00:10:39.590 mile -hour sustained winds, we could be looking 00:10:39.590 --> 00:10:42.129 at gusts pushing towards 200 miles per hour in 00:10:42.129 --> 00:10:44.769 those elevated spots. That's exactly the concern. 00:10:44.929 --> 00:10:47.570 And that speed range, 200 mile -hour, that's 00:10:47.570 --> 00:10:50.570 comparable to a strong EF3, maybe even an EF4 00:10:50.570 --> 00:10:53.659 tornado. But instead of lasting seconds or minutes, 00:10:53.899 --> 00:10:56.639 it's sustained potentially for hours across the 00:10:56.639 --> 00:10:59.000 central mountain range. Just devastating. The 00:10:59.000 --> 00:11:01.179 damage corridor is expected to be extreme near 00:11:01.179 --> 00:11:04.000 the landfall point and particularly to the east, 00:11:04.080 --> 00:11:06.080 that's the right side of the storm's center track. 00:11:06.399 --> 00:11:08.899 But it will extend across major interior parishes 00:11:08.899 --> 00:11:11.600 too. This includes areas like the cockpit country 00:11:11.600 --> 00:11:14.600 in Trelawny and St. James, which is densely forested 00:11:14.600 --> 00:11:17.080 and already has challenging infrastructure. The 00:11:17.080 --> 00:11:19.220 amount of debris and fragmentation generated 00:11:19.220 --> 00:11:22.509 will be massive. OK. Beyond the wind, let's talk 00:11:22.509 --> 00:11:25.149 about the secondary but maybe even more prolonged 00:11:25.149 --> 00:11:27.730 threat. The rainfall and the resulting flooding. 00:11:27.970 --> 00:11:30.409 That slow movement is key here. It guarantees 00:11:30.409 --> 00:11:33.009 a continuous relentless drenching. What are the 00:11:33.009 --> 00:11:35.970 latest rainfall forecasts looking like? The numbers 00:11:35.970 --> 00:11:39.250 are just... Staggering. We are looking at widespread 00:11:39.250 --> 00:11:42.389 totals of 15 to 30 inches of rain across large 00:11:42.389 --> 00:11:44.269 portions of Jamaica lasting through Wednesday. 00:11:44.889 --> 00:11:47.269 And crucially, localized storm totals could reach 00:11:47.269 --> 00:11:49.710 up to 40 inches, especially in the higher mountains. 00:11:50.230 --> 00:11:53.120 40 inches of rain. Can you put that into perspective? 00:11:53.600 --> 00:11:55.720 Historically, what does that mean for a small 00:11:55.720 --> 00:11:58.620 mountainous island like Jamaica, especially thinking 00:11:58.620 --> 00:12:01.139 about communities getting cut off? It's almost 00:12:01.139 --> 00:12:04.200 unmanageable, honestly. The key mechanism here 00:12:04.200 --> 00:12:07.740 is what we call orographic lifting. As the hurricane's 00:12:07.740 --> 00:12:10.580 incredibly moisture -laden air slams into the 00:12:10.580 --> 00:12:13.480 mountains, it's forced violently upwards. Which 00:12:13.480 --> 00:12:15.620 cools it and squeezes out the rain. Exactly. 00:12:15.919 --> 00:12:19.580 It cools, condenses, and releases rain at a dramatically 00:12:19.580 --> 00:12:22.730 accelerated rate. This mountain enhancement effect 00:12:22.730 --> 00:12:26.250 is why those localized 40 -inch totals are frighteningly 00:12:26.250 --> 00:12:29.330 realistic. No landscape, especially in the interior 00:12:29.330 --> 00:12:32.210 hills, can possibly absorb or drain that volume 00:12:32.210 --> 00:12:34.470 of water safely or quickly. Sores will have to 00:12:34.470 --> 00:12:37.389 be. Catastrophic flash flooding, complete washouts 00:12:37.389 --> 00:12:40.509 of roads, bridges collapsing, and numerous very 00:12:40.509 --> 00:12:43.149 dangerous landslides. These landslides will inevitably 00:12:43.149 --> 00:12:45.690 cut off dozens, maybe hundreds of communities, 00:12:45.970 --> 00:12:47.730 potentially for weeks or even longer. It's just 00:12:47.730 --> 00:12:49.669 complete isolation. Yeah. And then there's the 00:12:49.669 --> 00:12:52.690 third... of this assault, the storm surge threat 00:12:52.690 --> 00:12:55.549 along the coast. Where's the greatest danger 00:12:55.549 --> 00:12:58.129 for that, and what kind of water levels are we 00:12:58.129 --> 00:13:00.470 talking about? The life -threatening storm surge 00:13:00.470 --> 00:13:02.649 danger is primarily focused along the southern 00:13:02.649 --> 00:13:05.230 coast of Jamaica. That's expected from tonight 00:13:05.230 --> 00:13:07.830 right through Tuesday morning. The peak surge 00:13:07.830 --> 00:13:10.929 heights, the water rise above normally dry ground, 00:13:11.389 --> 00:13:14.529 are forecast to reach 9 to 13 feet near and, 00:13:14.529 --> 00:13:17.250 again, just east of where the center makes landfall. 00:13:17.450 --> 00:13:20.309 Nine to 13 feet above ground level. That's easily 00:13:20.309 --> 00:13:22.769 over the roof of a single story house. Easily. 00:13:23.169 --> 00:13:25.529 And remember, this surge isn't just still water 00:13:25.529 --> 00:13:28.309 rising. It will be accompanied by large, incredibly 00:13:28.309 --> 00:13:31.090 destructive waves riding on top of it. It's a 00:13:31.090 --> 00:13:33.190 coastal assault that threatens all low -lying 00:13:33.190 --> 00:13:35.570 buildings and infrastructure. But here's where 00:13:35.570 --> 00:13:37.830 the meteorological analysis gives us a really 00:13:37.830 --> 00:13:40.629 vital insight into the specific threat facing 00:13:40.629 --> 00:13:43.549 the capital city, Kingston, even if the absolute 00:13:43.549 --> 00:13:46.100 eye misses it slightly to the west. Right, we 00:13:46.100 --> 00:13:47.860 touched on this earlier, the idea of the storm 00:13:47.860 --> 00:13:50.460 surge acting like a plug. Can you explain that 00:13:50.460 --> 00:13:53.299 potential hydrologic failure in more detail? 00:13:53.419 --> 00:13:55.240 Because it sounds like it could dramatically 00:13:55.240 --> 00:13:57.980 worsen flooding in the capital itself. Absolutely. 00:13:58.320 --> 00:14:01.379 Think about Kingston Harbour. It's a large south 00:14:01.379 --> 00:14:05.049 -facing bay. That orientation makes it inherently 00:14:05.049 --> 00:14:08.370 vulnerable to storm surge and wind pushing massive 00:14:08.370 --> 00:14:11.269 amounts of seawater inland. Now combine that 00:14:11.269 --> 00:14:13.330 with the rainfall potentially up to 40 inches 00:14:13.330 --> 00:14:15.490 falling in the mountains that drain towards Kingston. 00:14:16.009 --> 00:14:18.889 This enormous volume of freshwater normally flows 00:14:18.889 --> 00:14:21.250 down through the capital's gullies, its drainage 00:14:21.250 --> 00:14:23.730 infrastructure, and exits into Kingston Harbor. 00:14:24.049 --> 00:14:26.549 Okay, makes sense. But when you have a 9 to 13 00:14:26.549 --> 00:14:29.169 foot storm surge pushing inland from the sea, 00:14:29.570 --> 00:14:32.049 it acts as a literal barrier. A plug is a good 00:14:32.049 --> 00:14:34.610 way to think of it. The immense volume of freshwater 00:14:34.610 --> 00:14:36.710 runoff pouring down from the hills has nowhere 00:14:36.710 --> 00:14:38.830 to go because its exit point, the harbor, is 00:14:38.830 --> 00:14:41.230 blocked by seawater being pushed in by the hurricane. 00:14:41.509 --> 00:14:44.389 So the rainwater backs up? Dramatically. It backs 00:14:44.389 --> 00:14:47.529 up inland, exacerbating the flood potential for 00:14:47.529 --> 00:14:50.230 the entire capital area and all the surrounding 00:14:50.230 --> 00:14:53.070 low -lying infrastructure. It's a devastating 00:14:53.070 --> 00:14:55.909 combination. Coastal inundation from the sea 00:14:56.220 --> 00:14:58.860 plus blocked freshwater drainage from inland, 00:14:59.139 --> 00:15:02.500 a dual disaster. And that includes critical infrastructure, 00:15:02.799 --> 00:15:04.519 like Norman Manley International Airport, right? 00:15:04.720 --> 00:15:07.240 It sits right on that peninsula next to the harbor. 00:15:07.519 --> 00:15:10.240 Correct. Its location makes it incredibly susceptible 00:15:10.240 --> 00:15:12.620 to being completely inundated, potentially shut 00:15:12.620 --> 00:15:15.700 down for a very long time by that combined surge 00:15:15.700 --> 00:15:18.700 and rainfall flooding. Is there any better news 00:15:18.700 --> 00:15:21.799 for other parts of the coast, like the North 00:15:21.799 --> 00:15:24.250 Coast tourist areas? Relatively speaking, yes, 00:15:24.409 --> 00:15:26.629 the forecast suggests the northwest coast near 00:15:26.629 --> 00:15:28.750 places like Montego Bay will likely fare better 00:15:28.750 --> 00:15:31.509 in terms of surge. Maybe only one to three feet 00:15:31.509 --> 00:15:34.169 of inundation there. However, and this is the 00:15:34.169 --> 00:15:37.009 big however, they are still squarely in the path 00:15:37.009 --> 00:15:38.970 of the extreme winds and the torrential rainfall. 00:15:39.370 --> 00:15:41.269 So while the surge threat might be lower, the 00:15:41.269 --> 00:15:43.389 overall danger remains incredibly high across 00:15:43.389 --> 00:15:46.350 the entire island. Okay, given this sheer scale 00:15:46.350 --> 00:15:49.070 of destruction forecasted the potential for total 00:15:49.070 --> 00:15:52.870 structural failure, 40 inches of rain, a 13 -foot 00:15:52.870 --> 00:15:56.009 surge preparedness obviously had to shift from 00:15:56.009 --> 00:15:59.470 just warnings to mandatory actions quite early. 00:16:00.190 --> 00:16:02.429 How comprehensive has the government response 00:16:02.429 --> 00:16:05.179 been? The response appears to have been quite 00:16:05.179 --> 00:16:07.720 decisive, thankfully. It's been led by the Prime 00:16:07.720 --> 00:16:10.440 Minister, who issued mandatory evacuation orders 00:16:10.440 --> 00:16:12.840 for the most vulnerable coastal and low -lying 00:16:12.840 --> 00:16:15.779 areas several days ago. And this built upon a 00:16:15.779 --> 00:16:18.600 foundational step taken back on October 24th 00:16:18.600 --> 00:16:20.759 when the government's Office of Disaster Preparedness 00:16:20.759 --> 00:16:23.360 and Emergency Management, ODPIM, declared the 00:16:23.360 --> 00:16:26.220 entire island a threatened area. ODPIM, that's 00:16:26.220 --> 00:16:28.100 the key agency coordinating everything, right? 00:16:28.100 --> 00:16:30.159 Exactly. They're the nerve center for the national 00:16:30.159 --> 00:16:32.080 response effort. And what key infrastructure 00:16:32.080 --> 00:16:34.779 did they preemptively shut down? Declosure orders 00:16:34.779 --> 00:16:38.240 have been pretty comprehensive. Both major international 00:16:38.240 --> 00:16:41.000 airports, Sangster in Montego Bay and Norman 00:16:41.000 --> 00:16:42.799 Manley in Kingston have been ordered closed, 00:16:43.120 --> 00:16:46.019 all major seaports too. It essentially locks 00:16:46.019 --> 00:16:48.340 down the island to external travel until Melissa 00:16:48.340 --> 00:16:51.940 passes. Furthermore, the National Emergency Operations 00:16:51.940 --> 00:16:54.860 Center has been fully activated. They've been 00:16:54.860 --> 00:16:57.500 working to pre -position crucial supplies like 00:16:57.500 --> 00:17:00.120 generators, medical kits, and fuel stocks in 00:17:00.120 --> 00:17:02.519 areas they anticipate will be cut off. But the 00:17:02.519 --> 00:17:04.859 challenge, as always, is getting people to actually 00:17:04.859 --> 00:17:07.539 evacuate, especially from those really vulnerable 00:17:07.539 --> 00:17:10.319 coastal spots. We saw reports about communities 00:17:10.319 --> 00:17:13.279 like Rocky Point and Portland Cottage in Clarendon. 00:17:13.420 --> 00:17:15.619 There was some initial reluctance there. Yes, 00:17:15.799 --> 00:17:17.700 that's often the case. There's always some initial 00:17:17.700 --> 00:17:20.559 resistance. It might be fear of leaving property 00:17:20.559 --> 00:17:24.140 behind, fear of looting, or sometimes just underestimating 00:17:24.140 --> 00:17:26.640 the sheer power of the storm. However, in this 00:17:26.640 --> 00:17:28.980 case, the rapidly worsening conditions provided 00:17:28.980 --> 00:17:31.680 undeniable proof of the danger. Reports started 00:17:31.680 --> 00:17:33.519 coming in that Rocky Point was already seeing 00:17:33.519 --> 00:17:35.720 significant storm surge flooding. The water was 00:17:35.720 --> 00:17:39.000 already coming in. Exactly. And the sea had apparently 00:17:39.000 --> 00:17:41.180 begun pushing into Portland Cottage as well. 00:17:41.559 --> 00:17:44.559 That visible immediate threat seems to have overcome 00:17:44.559 --> 00:17:47.220 much of the initial reluctance. It made staying 00:17:47.220 --> 00:17:49.880 simply impossible. And many people did manage 00:17:49.880 --> 00:17:52.599 to get out. Yes. Reports indicate that government 00:17:52.599 --> 00:17:55.180 -provided transport was utilized, and around 00:17:55.180 --> 00:17:58.039 180 residents from those specific areas were 00:17:58.039 --> 00:18:00.579 already safely moved to designated shelters, 00:18:01.019 --> 00:18:03.940 like Veer Technical High School. But the anxiety 00:18:03.940 --> 00:18:06.420 must be immense, especially for people have been 00:18:06.420 --> 00:18:09.059 through this before. It's extremely high, and 00:18:09.059 --> 00:18:11.240 it's compounded by collective memory, as you 00:18:11.240 --> 00:18:13.680 say. Many residents in these vulnerable southern 00:18:13.680 --> 00:18:16.980 coastal areas are still struggling to fully rebuild 00:18:16.980 --> 00:18:19.220 from the damage caused by Hurricane Barrel back 00:18:19.220 --> 00:18:21.819 in 2012. And Barrel was only a category one storm. 00:18:22.099 --> 00:18:24.859 Exactly. Only a category one. So now to face 00:18:24.859 --> 00:18:27.960 a category five, four categories stronger, it 00:18:27.960 --> 00:18:30.440 must feel almost insurmountable for many people. 00:18:30.799 --> 00:18:33.000 We saw a really powerful quote that seemed to 00:18:33.000 --> 00:18:35.019 capture that vulnerability. It was from a farmer. 00:18:35.390 --> 00:18:38.150 in Treasure Beach, San Elizabeth. Yes, that quote 00:18:38.150 --> 00:18:41.390 really hit home. That farmer captured the socioeconomic 00:18:41.390 --> 00:18:44.150 disparity of the threat perfectly. They expressed 00:18:44.150 --> 00:18:47.569 intense fear, especially for neighbors with fragile 00:18:47.569 --> 00:18:50.410 housing, you know, zinc roofs, board houses, 00:18:50.569 --> 00:18:52.329 or those living right on the water's edge. The 00:18:52.329 --> 00:18:54.779 fear they might lose everything. Precisely. The 00:18:54.779 --> 00:18:57.380 reality is, a storm like Melissa threatens not 00:18:57.380 --> 00:19:00.240 just property, but the entire foundation of people's 00:19:00.240 --> 00:19:03.039 lives and livelihoods. Even residents who've 00:19:03.039 --> 00:19:05.440 prepared as best they can are facing the prospect 00:19:05.440 --> 00:19:08.519 of weeks, maybe months, without basic services. 00:19:08.680 --> 00:19:10.920 And with potentially tens of thousands needing 00:19:10.920 --> 00:19:13.940 to evacuate, concerns about the safety and conditions 00:19:13.940 --> 00:19:17.460 in public shelters inevitably come up. What assurances 00:19:17.460 --> 00:19:19.859 did the government, specifically Minister Desmond 00:19:19.859 --> 00:19:22.460 McKenzie, provide? Minister McKenzie made a very 00:19:22.460 --> 00:19:25.660 public and strong statement. He urged residents 00:19:25.660 --> 00:19:28.240 directly not to be crippled by fear and, importantly, 00:19:28.559 --> 00:19:30.500 not to listen to rumors about the shelters being 00:19:30.500 --> 00:19:33.140 unsafe or poorly equipped. He emphasized that 00:19:33.140 --> 00:19:36.059 the 881 -plus designated public shelters across 00:19:36.059 --> 00:19:38.160 Jamaica are safe, they are clean, and they are 00:19:38.160 --> 00:19:40.779 fully provisioned. He stressed that hygiene standards 00:19:40.779 --> 00:19:43.559 are being rigorously maintained. That's crucial 00:19:43.559 --> 00:19:46.599 reassurance. What about logistics inside the 00:19:46.599 --> 00:19:48.920 shelters? How are they ensuring order and safety? 00:19:49.079 --> 00:19:51.599 Well, ODPM and the security forces have established 00:19:51.599 --> 00:19:54.460 clear protocols. Each shelter has a dedicated 00:19:54.460 --> 00:19:57.359 management team. Critically, to ensure privacy 00:19:57.359 --> 00:19:59.880 and security, men and women are housed in separate 00:19:59.880 --> 00:20:02.059 areas unless they are part of an immediate family 00:20:02.059 --> 00:20:04.920 unit staying together. OK. And importantly, police 00:20:04.920 --> 00:20:07.420 patrols will be active in and around the shelter 00:20:07.420 --> 00:20:09.700 areas throughout the storm and its aftermath. 00:20:09.880 --> 00:20:13.160 So the core message was basically trust the system, 00:20:13.359 --> 00:20:15.660 get to safety. It was a straightforward plea 00:20:15.660 --> 00:20:18.660 for cooperation. Yes. Lock up your homes as best 00:20:18.660 --> 00:20:21.180 you can, take essential supplies, non -perishable 00:20:21.180 --> 00:20:23.539 food, water, any prescription medicines you need, 00:20:23.700 --> 00:20:25.799 and please use the provided buses to get to the 00:20:25.799 --> 00:20:28.779 shelters. The overriding goal, the absolute priority, 00:20:29.000 --> 00:20:31.059 is the preservation of life. The message was 00:20:31.059 --> 00:20:33.720 crystal clear. We want every single person in 00:20:33.720 --> 00:20:35.859 this country to be alive and counted for when 00:20:35.859 --> 00:20:38.940 Melissa is over. A stark reminder of the stakes. 00:20:39.599 --> 00:20:42.920 Okay, while Melissa's immediate, most devastating 00:20:42.920 --> 00:20:46.819 focus is Jamaica, Its influence extends across 00:20:46.819 --> 00:20:50.170 the region. It already passed Hispaniola. And 00:20:50.170 --> 00:20:52.150 tragically, we have confirmation it's already 00:20:52.150 --> 00:20:54.230 claimed lives there. That's correct, unfortunately. 00:20:54.609 --> 00:20:56.690 Melissa's passage near Hispaniola last week, 00:20:56.769 --> 00:20:59.750 even before reaching this intensity, was tragic. 00:21:00.210 --> 00:21:02.349 It's confirmed to have claimed at least three 00:21:02.349 --> 00:21:05.029 lives in the Dominican Republic. That includes 00:21:05.029 --> 00:21:07.849 two people killed in a severe landslide in an 00:21:07.849 --> 00:21:11.109 area called Fontamara, and sadly, a man in his 00:21:11.109 --> 00:21:13.950 70s who was killed by a falling tree in Marigot. 00:21:14.250 --> 00:21:16.589 Just heartbreaking. And even though the storm 00:21:16.589 --> 00:21:19.369 center has moved west, the danger isn't over 00:21:19.369 --> 00:21:21.349 for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, is it? 00:21:21.549 --> 00:21:23.869 Especially the flooding threat. Not at all, because 00:21:23.869 --> 00:21:25.990 the ground is already completely saturated from 00:21:25.990 --> 00:21:27.970 the rain they've already received, and the storm 00:21:27.970 --> 00:21:30.130 circulation is still throwing moisture back over 00:21:30.130 --> 00:21:32.670 the island. Well, catastrophic flash flooding 00:21:32.670 --> 00:21:35.190 and landslides are expected to continue across 00:21:35.190 --> 00:21:37.130 southwestern Haiti and southern parts of the 00:21:37.130 --> 00:21:39.130 Dominican Republic right through the middle of 00:21:39.130 --> 00:21:41.089 the week. More rain on top of what they've already 00:21:41.089 --> 00:21:44.430 had. Exactly. Forecasters are bracing for potentially 00:21:44.430 --> 00:21:47.430 another 8 to 16 inches of rain in some areas. 00:21:47.809 --> 00:21:49.470 When you add that to the existing totals, it 00:21:49.470 --> 00:21:52.089 means localized storm totals could still push 00:21:52.089 --> 00:21:54.730 towards that devastating 40 inch mark in the 00:21:54.730 --> 00:21:57.410 hardest hit mountainous regions. And they'll 00:21:57.410 --> 00:21:59.710 likely continue to experience tropical storm 00:21:59.710 --> 00:22:02.029 conditions there late Tuesday and into Wednesday 00:22:02.029 --> 00:22:04.829 as well. OK, so once Melissa finally makes that 00:22:04.829 --> 00:22:07.390 predicted northward turn and starts accelerating 00:22:07.390 --> 00:22:09.990 away from Jamaica, its next target appears to 00:22:09.990 --> 00:22:13.210 be Cuba. for a second major landfall. What's 00:22:13.210 --> 00:22:15.970 the timeline look like for that? And which provinces 00:22:15.970 --> 00:22:18.849 are in the direct path? Eastern Cuba needs to 00:22:18.849 --> 00:22:21.809 rush preparations to completion right now. Melissa 00:22:21.809 --> 00:22:24.470 is expected to cross the eastern provinces, specifically 00:22:24.470 --> 00:22:27.509 Grima, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin 00:22:27.509 --> 00:22:29.869 sometime Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. 00:22:30.109 --> 00:22:33.059 And the intensity forecast. Still major. Yes. 00:22:33.619 --> 00:22:35.559 While it's forecast to weaken slightly after 00:22:35.559 --> 00:22:37.740 interacting with Jamaica's mountains, it's still 00:22:37.740 --> 00:22:40.160 expected to hit Cuba as a powerful major hurricane, 00:22:40.420 --> 00:22:42.900 likely Category 3 strength. Hurricane warnings 00:22:42.900 --> 00:22:44.980 have been rushed out for all those provinces, 00:22:45.240 --> 00:22:47.859 underscoring the extreme urgency. What are the 00:22:47.859 --> 00:22:50.180 primary dangers Cuban authorities are bracing 00:22:50.180 --> 00:22:53.509 for? Similar to Jamaica. Very similar primary 00:22:53.509 --> 00:22:56.309 threats. Yes. Massive rainfall and life threatening 00:22:56.309 --> 00:22:59.390 storm surge. Forecasters are expecting 15 to 00:22:59.390 --> 00:23:02.670 20 inches of rainfall across eastern Cuba, which 00:23:02.670 --> 00:23:04.950 in mountainous terrain means life threatening, 00:23:05.230 --> 00:23:08.069 potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides. 00:23:08.349 --> 00:23:10.410 Absolutely. That's almost inevitable with those 00:23:10.410 --> 00:23:13.269 rainfall amounts on that terrain. And coupled 00:23:13.269 --> 00:23:15.829 with the rain is the storm surge threat. It's 00:23:15.829 --> 00:23:18.329 forecast to reach seven to 11 feet above normal 00:23:18.329 --> 00:23:20.569 tide levels near and to the east of where the 00:23:20.569 --> 00:23:22.509 center makes landfall. along Cuba's southern 00:23:22.509 --> 00:23:25.849 coast. So again, significant infrastructure damage 00:23:25.849 --> 00:23:28.009 and potential for coastal communities to be cut 00:23:28.009 --> 00:23:30.990 off seems highly likely. Highly likely, yes. 00:23:31.349 --> 00:23:34.490 OK, moving beyond Cuba, that accelerated track 00:23:34.490 --> 00:23:37.170 then takes Melissa towards the southeastern Bahamas 00:23:37.170 --> 00:23:39.490 and the Turks and Caicos Islands. That impact 00:23:39.490 --> 00:23:41.900 is forecast for Wednesday. Hurricane watches 00:23:41.900 --> 00:23:44.440 are already up for the entire region. And while 00:23:44.440 --> 00:23:46.380 the storm will be accelerating as it moves off 00:23:46.380 --> 00:23:48.619 Cuba and through the Bahamas, moving at a pretty 00:23:48.619 --> 00:23:50.859 good clip, as the forecasters say that faster 00:23:50.859 --> 00:23:53.039 speed doesn't eliminate the danger. Right, it 00:23:53.039 --> 00:23:54.900 just shortens the impact window. Full preparations 00:23:54.900 --> 00:23:57.400 are still needed. Absolutely. The window for 00:23:57.400 --> 00:23:59.740 preparation is shorter, but the intensity is 00:23:59.740 --> 00:24:02.619 still forecast to be significant, likely still 00:24:02.619 --> 00:24:05.259 a hurricane, maybe a major one as it passes near 00:24:05.259 --> 00:24:09.160 or over them. So what do residents in the Bahamas 00:24:09.160 --> 00:24:12.160 and TCI need to have done by Tuesday night? What 00:24:12.160 --> 00:24:14.339 are they facing? They need to be prepared for 00:24:14.339 --> 00:24:16.920 hurricane conditions. That includes damaging 00:24:16.920 --> 00:24:19.539 winds, a life -threatening storm surge, which 00:24:19.539 --> 00:24:21.960 is forecast to be around four to six feet above 00:24:21.960 --> 00:24:25.240 normally dry ground in surge -prone areas, and 00:24:25.240 --> 00:24:27.660 heavy rainfall totals likely between four and 00:24:27.660 --> 00:24:30.079 eight inches. Still a significant flood threat, 00:24:30.359 --> 00:24:32.920 even with less rain than Jamaica or Cuba. Definitely, 00:24:33.180 --> 00:24:35.799 especially on low -lying islands. Preparations 00:24:35.799 --> 00:24:37.819 need to be completed very quickly because that 00:24:37.819 --> 00:24:40.400 faster forward speed means conditions will deteriorate 00:24:40.400 --> 00:24:42.839 rapidly once they start. OK, and finally, we 00:24:42.839 --> 00:24:44.859 have to address the lingering question that always 00:24:44.859 --> 00:24:47.680 comes up. Could Melissa curve back towards the 00:24:47.680 --> 00:24:50.759 US East Coast or what about Bermuda? OK, let's 00:24:50.759 --> 00:24:53.779 take Bermuda first. Bermuda could potentially 00:24:53.779 --> 00:24:57.220 see the storm pass nearby or in its vicinity 00:24:57.220 --> 00:25:00.319 by sometime Thursday night. By that point, Melissa 00:25:00.319 --> 00:25:03.099 is forecast to be weaker than it is now, but 00:25:03.099 --> 00:25:06.250 likely still at hurricane strength. So residents 00:25:06.250 --> 00:25:08.809 in Bermuda absolutely need to be monitoring the 00:25:08.809 --> 00:25:11.630 forecast very closely and ensure their preparations 00:25:11.630 --> 00:25:14.210 are ready for a possible close call or even a 00:25:14.210 --> 00:25:17.009 direct impact. Okay, monitor closely in Bermuda 00:25:17.009 --> 00:25:20.039 and the U .S. East Coast. For the U .S. East 00:25:20.039 --> 00:25:22.519 Coast, the analysis thankfully looks very reassuring 00:25:22.519 --> 00:25:25.019 at this point. The research strongly indicates 00:25:25.019 --> 00:25:27.220 that the pattern setting up over North America, 00:25:27.680 --> 00:25:30.019 specifically strong autumn cold fronts sweeping 00:25:30.019 --> 00:25:32.279 across the continent, will act as a protective 00:25:32.279 --> 00:25:34.720 barrier. How so? These fronts and the strong 00:25:34.720 --> 00:25:37.039 westerly winds associated with them will effectively 00:25:37.039 --> 00:25:39.200 capture Melissa and steer it sharply out to sea 00:25:39.200 --> 00:25:41.720 towards the northeast and eventually east northeast. 00:25:41.900 --> 00:25:44.019 They'll recurve into the open Atlantic. Exactly. 00:25:44.299 --> 00:25:46.980 The consensus is high that Melissa will recurve 00:25:46.980 --> 00:25:49.240 well offshore and will not pose a direct threat 00:25:49.240 --> 00:25:52.140 to the continental U .S. East Coast. Okay, that's 00:25:52.140 --> 00:25:54.579 certainly some welcome news in a very dire situation 00:25:54.579 --> 00:25:57.559 overall. So wrapping up our analysis today, it 00:25:57.559 --> 00:25:59.940 really confirms the extreme gravity of Hurricane 00:25:59.940 --> 00:26:03.000 Melissa. We've synthesized these almost unbelievable 00:26:03.000 --> 00:26:06.740 data points. 175 mile per hour winds, a crawl 00:26:06.740 --> 00:26:08.539 speed of just three miles per hour initially, 00:26:08.960 --> 00:26:11.700 the potential for 40 inches of rain, a 13 -foot 00:26:11.700 --> 00:26:13.839 storm surge that could block drainage for a capital 00:26:13.839 --> 00:26:16.430 city. The immediate overriding message for everyone 00:26:16.430 --> 00:26:18.829 in Jamaica, especially those in vulnerable areas 00:26:18.829 --> 00:26:20.779 has to remain the same. Please heed the official 00:26:20.779 --> 00:26:23.079 warnings, get to the designated shelters if ordered, 00:26:23.359 --> 00:26:25.640 and prioritize preserving life above absolutely 00:26:25.640 --> 00:26:27.680 everything else right now. And what's really 00:26:27.680 --> 00:26:30.359 fascinating or perhaps terrifying from a meteorological 00:26:30.359 --> 00:26:33.440 standpoint is how it's not just one factor, it's 00:26:33.440 --> 00:26:36.619 the convergence. It's the extreme intensity as 00:26:36.619 --> 00:26:39.440 a starting point, yes, but then it's the slow 00:26:39.440 --> 00:26:42.000 movement magnifying the rainfall duration, the 00:26:42.000 --> 00:26:44.059 mountains dramatically enhancing that rainfall, 00:26:44.079 --> 00:26:46.940 and then that specific dangerous hydrological 00:26:46.940 --> 00:26:49.460 feedback loop, the surge blocking the fresh water 00:26:49.460 --> 00:26:51.920 drainage in densely populated areas like Kingston. 00:26:52.380 --> 00:26:55.380 That whole combination creates this multi -layered, 00:26:55.500 --> 00:26:57.940 almost existential threat to infrastructure and 00:26:57.940 --> 00:27:01.000 safety. It points towards unprecedented and likely 00:27:01.000 --> 00:27:03.559 very long lasting damage. The sheer complexity 00:27:03.559 --> 00:27:05.539 of trying to coordinate a response against that 00:27:05.539 --> 00:27:08.559 kind of compounding disaster when power, communications, 00:27:08.759 --> 00:27:11.000 transport could all fail simultaneously across 00:27:11.000 --> 00:27:13.559 wide areas. It's just staggering to contemplate. 00:27:13.630 --> 00:27:16.309 It really is. And this brings up an important 00:27:16.309 --> 00:27:17.970 question, something maybe for you, the listener, 00:27:18.109 --> 00:27:20.910 to think about as this unfolds. The research 00:27:20.910 --> 00:27:23.670 we've looked at heavily emphasizes the near certainty 00:27:23.670 --> 00:27:26.650 of long -lasting infrastructure failure. That 00:27:26.650 --> 00:27:28.990 means many communities will be isolated, perhaps 00:27:28.990 --> 00:27:32.170 for days, maybe even weeks, before significant 00:27:32.170 --> 00:27:34.920 government aid can reach them. So given that 00:27:34.920 --> 00:27:38.039 reality, what immediate non -governmental resources 00:27:38.039 --> 00:27:40.400 should people in potentially isolated communities 00:27:40.400 --> 00:27:43.359 prioritize right now or have on hand generally 00:27:43.359 --> 00:27:45.819 for resilience? You mean beyond the official 00:27:45.819 --> 00:27:48.269 shelters and aid? Thinking about self -reliance? 00:27:48.589 --> 00:27:50.349 Exactly. We're talking about maximizing self 00:27:50.349 --> 00:27:52.650 -reliance and community resilience from the ground 00:27:52.650 --> 00:27:56.130 up. What local sustainable solutions become absolutely 00:27:56.130 --> 00:27:59.230 essential for survival during that extended recovery 00:27:59.230 --> 00:28:01.410 period when the power lines are down, the roads 00:28:01.410 --> 00:28:03.970 are washed out, and help is still far away? Something 00:28:03.970 --> 00:28:06.809 to really mull over. A crucial question indeed. 00:28:07.470 --> 00:28:09.509 You've been listening to Meteorology Matters, 00:28:09.549 --> 00:28:12.029 created by meteorologist Rob Jones. Now that 00:28:12.029 --> 00:28:15.109 you've heard both our English and Spanish versions. 00:28:15.390 --> 00:28:18.730 We really, really want your feedback. Is this 00:28:18.730 --> 00:28:21.369 bilingual approach helping more people connect 00:28:21.369 --> 00:28:23.329 with the science, or is it just making things 00:28:23.329 --> 00:28:26.990 messy for you? Please don't stay quiet. Jump 00:28:26.990 --> 00:28:28.950 on our socials and let us know what you think. 00:28:29.529 --> 00:28:32.190 You can follow meteorologist Rob Jones on Instagram. 00:28:32.509 --> 00:28:35.450 His handle is simply Meteorologist. On TikTok, 00:28:35.529 --> 00:28:38.609 you can find him at TV Meteorologist. And on 00:28:38.609 --> 00:28:41.089 YouTube, search for the Rob Jones Hurricane channel. 00:28:41.410 --> 00:28:43.150 That's where you can also find the Meteorology 00:28:43.150 --> 00:28:45.950 Matters podcast playlist. with all the episodes. 00:28:46.269 --> 00:28:48.650 And please be sure to like, follow, comment, 00:28:48.789 --> 00:28:50.829 and rate the podcast wherever you listen. Like 00:28:50.829 --> 00:28:53.210 it, share it, drop a comment, or send us a message 00:28:53.210 --> 00:28:55.349 directly. We want to hear it all. Your reactions, 00:28:55.589 --> 00:28:58.309 good, bad, or even brutally honest, will genuinely 00:28:58.309 --> 00:29:00.869 shape how we move forward with this format. Thanks 00:29:00.869 --> 00:29:04.089 for listening. And remember, the weather always 00:29:04.089 --> 00:29:06.190 matters. But so does your opinion.