OK, let's get straight to it. We have an urgent
situation report on Hurricane Melissa. As of
the 2 p .m. Eastern Daylight Time update today,
that's Monday, October 27th. Melissa is still
an utterly devastating Category 5 storm. Just
unbelievable intensity. We're seeing sustained
winds clocked at 175 miles per hour. And that's
central pressure. 906 millibars confirms just
how powerful this system is. It really does.
The core right now is located about 145 miles
southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. And the critical
thing, it's moving so slowly, agonizingly slow,
three miles per hour to the west northwest. Which
means, unfortunately, the catastrophic impacts
aren't just approaching. They are actually starting
right now. Exactly. The core is forecast to move
near or even directly over the island tonight
and right through early Tuesday. A really dangerous
situation unfolding. Welcome to Meteorology Matters,
the podcast that dives deep into the science,
chaos, and stories behind the weather that shapes
our world. This show was created by meteorologist
Rob Jones, and we're doing something new this
season, offering every episode in English and
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languages. Why? Well, because weather impacts
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Tell us straight up on social media, comment,
like, share, or DM us and let it rip. We need
that feedback. Absolutely. Now let's get into
today's episode of Meteorology Matters. Our mission
today, it's focused entirely on analyzing the
meteorological data we have and looking at the
preparedness efforts around Hurricane Melissa.
This storm. Well, it's arguably become the most
historically serious system of this 2025 season.
So we're going to unpack that data, try to understand
the precise nature of the threat Jamaica and
really the wider Caribbean is facing right now.
Exactly. All right. When we talk category five,
people often just hear the wind speed, 175 miles
per hour. But to really grasp Melissa's power,
we have to look inside at its structure. As of
2 p .m., it's near 16 .5 north, 78 .3 west. What
are the key structural things revealing the storm's
violence? Well, what's really striking here is
how Melissa shows that classic visual signature
of a tremendously powerful hurricane. If you
were to look at the satellite imagery right now,
you'd see a small, incredibly well -defined eye.
It's only about 10 nautical miles wide. Wow,
that's small. Yeah, in that tight constriction,
it means the wind speeds are forced into this
incredibly concentrated, violent area right around
the center. And surrounding that eye is what
meteorologists call the central dense overcast,
or the CDO. OK, break that down. What does the
CDO tell us? The CDO, it's essentially this dense,
pretty symmetrical shield of high cirrus clouds.
It indicates extreme outflow, air flowing out
from the storm high up in the atmosphere. And
the cloud tops in Melissa's CDO, they're registering
temperatures colder than negative 80 degrees
Celsius. That's incredibly cold. It is. And that
depth, that intensity of convection, the constant
rising of warm, moist air fueling the storm,
it means the heat engine driving Melissa is operating
at absolute peak efficiency. It's a highly potent,
extremely well organized, and frankly, an incredibly
violent system. And compounding all that internal
power is the fact that it's barely moving, just
sort of wobbling along at three miles per hour.
That slow crawl over very warm waters must be
just... feeding it, prolonging the disaster.
But the forecast does call for a change, right?
A critical path change. That's right. What's
supposed to finally steer this thing? Well, that
slow initial movement, it's mainly because of
weak steering currents, specifically a mid -level
ridge of high pressure that's been sitting north
of Melissa, kind of acting like a block. But
forecasters are really banking on a significant
atmospheric shift. We're expecting a deep -layer,
mid -latitude trough. Which is like a big dip
in the jet stream. Exactly. A significant dip
in the jet stream. It's moving eastward through
the southeastern U .S. right now, and that is
expected to become the dominant steering influence.
So let me see if I get this. This incoming trough
is going to sort of scoop Melissa up. Precisely.
As that blocking ridge weakens, the strong southwesterly
flow ahead of that big trough will grab hold
of Melissa. That should start a turn towards
the north, probably in the next 12 to 24 hours.
And after that initial turn, the storm should
finally accelerate off toward the northeast.
It'll pick up speed significantly as it gets
caught in that broader atmospheric flow. And
the acceleration is key. Right, that's what potentially
spares islands further west from the same prolonged
agony Jamaica is facing. Exactly, it gets it
moving. Okay, so while that acceleration is forecast
eventually, first, Melissa has already carved
its name into the history books for the 2025
Atlantic season. And it highlights a really frightening
trend. It really has. And this is where the analytical
insight becomes critical. Melissa underwent what
we specifically call extreme rapid intensification
over the weekend. Define that for us again. That's
when its maximum sustained winds increase by
35 knots. That's about 40 miles per hour or more
within just a 24 hour period. Wow. It just showcases
the extreme energy that's available in the atmosphere
and crucially in the oceans right now. But the
truly sobering fact, the headline really, is
its category. Melissa is the third category five
hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. The third
cat five this year. Yes. And that single statistic
puts 2025 in second place, historically, for
the most category five storms in a single season.
It's trailing only the monstrous 2005 season.
2005, I remember that season well. Katrina, Rita,
Wilma. Exactly. 2005 had four category five storms.
So can you walk us through what that comparison
means, having three cap fives already this year.
What does that tell us about the conditions out
there? Well, 2005 really set the modern benchmark
for just hyperactive hurricane seasons. It had
28 named storms in total. No, we haven't reached
that total storm count this year. Not yet, anyway.
But having three storms reach category five intensity
suggests that the fuel, the thermal energy in
the ocean water, is exceptionally high. It means
conditions are allowing storms not just to form,
but to sustain themselves and rapidly achieve
that absolute top tier intensity. It implies
the environment is just ripe for these extreme
events. It really does. It suggests, you know,
maybe a significant shift in the climate's capacity
to generate storms of this magnitude. It's something
researchers are looking at very closely. And
to really understand this intensity sometimes
you have to look past the numbers and focus on
the Well, the sheer physical force involved.
We have a really compelling story from the research
about the hurricane hunters. What happened when
they flew into Melissa? Right. This anecdote
really illustrates the violence inside that storm
better than almost any wind speed reading. Both
the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
NOAA, their P -3 research aircraft were flying
missions into Melissa. And these planes are built
tough, right? designed for this. Absolutely.
They're robust, specifically engineered to handle
the stresses inside hurricanes. Yet during one
of the penetrations into the eyewall, the NOAA
P -3 aircraft actually had to abort its mission
early. They had to turn back. Abort? Why? They
encountered such severe turbulence in the southwestern
eyewall. It was just too violent. It jeopardized
not only the data collection, but the actual
safety of the crew on board. Wow. They were forced
to exit the storm's core prematurely. So when
a plane specifically for extreme weather basically
says nope too much that tells you everything
and they recorded the pressure dropping to near
906 908 millibars right before they had to leave
exactly That pressure reading confirms the category
five strength, and the severe turbulence confirms
the sheer violence, the extreme wind shear, the
powerful updrafts within that really tight concentric
eyewall. It was simply too much for even that
specialized aircraft. It forced them out. Incredible.
Okay, looking ahead just slightly, there's some
talk among forecasters that Melissa might fluctuate
a bit in intensity. Maybe undergo something called
an eyewall replacement cycle in the next, say,
12 to 24 hours. Listeners, what exactly is an
eyewall replacement cycle? And why might it offer
just a tiny temporary reprieve? Right. An eyewall
replacement cycle, or ERC, typically happens
in very intense hurricanes like Melissa. What
happens is the original tight inner eyewall starts
to weaken and collapse. At the same time, a new
outer ring of thunderstorms, a new eyewall essentially,
forms around the old one. OK. So it's like the
storm is reorganizing. Kind of, yeah. And during
this process, the storm often weakens temporarily
because its energy is spread over a wider area
as that outer eye wall develops. So the storm
might temporarily widen and maybe drop slightly
in wind speed. Yes, but, and this is the crucial
point, it's usually only temporary. Once that
inner eye wall completely dissipates and the
new, larger outer eye wall contracts and takes
over, the storm often re -intensifies. Sometimes
it even reaches a higher peak intensity afterwards.
But here's the critical insight, the thing that
matters most for Jamaica right now. Experts are
very clear there is no practical difference in
the impact if Melissa makes landfall as a very
high -end category four or a category five. Right
at that level the destruction is already guaranteed
to be catastrophic. Exactly the difference is
academic at that point. Jamaica is going to be
impacted by an extremely powerful major hurricane
regardless of whether it undergoes a temporary
ERC or not. Okay so let's connect that intensity
forecast directly to Jamaica's geography because
that combination seems to be creating a truly
worst -case scenario. It really is. You have
the extreme winds, the slow speed, which just
maximizes rainfall duration. And then you have
Jamaica's highly mountainous terrain. It's a
perfect storm, quite literally, for catastrophic
hazards on multiple fronts. Jamaica is bracing
for an assault from wind, rain, and sea. Let's
tackle the wind first. Tropical storm conditions
are already being felt. We know that. But the
catastrophic hurricane force wins. They begin
tonight and will hammer the island into early
Tuesday. And the threat isn't just damage, it's
total structural failure in some areas. And this
is where that topography becomes so critical.
Jamaica's mountainous spine, it actually amplifies
the wind hazard significantly. Research shows
that wind speeds right atop the hills and mountains,
and especially on the windward -facing slopes,
could be amplified by up to 30 % compared to
the winds measured over flat ground near the
surface. 30 % amplification. So on top of 175
mile -hour sustained winds, we could be looking
at gusts pushing towards 200 miles per hour in
those elevated spots. That's exactly the concern.
And that speed range, 200 mile -hour, that's
comparable to a strong EF3, maybe even an EF4
tornado. But instead of lasting seconds or minutes,
it's sustained potentially for hours across the
central mountain range. Just devastating. The
damage corridor is expected to be extreme near
the landfall point and particularly to the east,
that's the right side of the storm's center track.
But it will extend across major interior parishes
too. This includes areas like the cockpit country
in Trelawny and St. James, which is densely forested
and already has challenging infrastructure. The
amount of debris and fragmentation generated
will be massive. OK. Beyond the wind, let's talk
about the secondary but maybe even more prolonged
threat. The rainfall and the resulting flooding.
That slow movement is key here. It guarantees
a continuous relentless drenching. What are the
latest rainfall forecasts looking like? The numbers
are just... Staggering. We are looking at widespread
totals of 15 to 30 inches of rain across large
portions of Jamaica lasting through Wednesday.
And crucially, localized storm totals could reach
up to 40 inches, especially in the higher mountains.
40 inches of rain. Can you put that into perspective?
Historically, what does that mean for a small
mountainous island like Jamaica, especially thinking
about communities getting cut off? It's almost
unmanageable, honestly. The key mechanism here
is what we call orographic lifting. As the hurricane's
incredibly moisture -laden air slams into the
mountains, it's forced violently upwards. Which
cools it and squeezes out the rain. Exactly.
It cools, condenses, and releases rain at a dramatically
accelerated rate. This mountain enhancement effect
is why those localized 40 -inch totals are frighteningly
realistic. No landscape, especially in the interior
hills, can possibly absorb or drain that volume
of water safely or quickly. Sores will have to
be. Catastrophic flash flooding, complete washouts
of roads, bridges collapsing, and numerous very
dangerous landslides. These landslides will inevitably
cut off dozens, maybe hundreds of communities,
potentially for weeks or even longer. It's just
complete isolation. Yeah. And then there's the
third... of this assault, the storm surge threat
along the coast. Where's the greatest danger
for that, and what kind of water levels are we
talking about? The life -threatening storm surge
danger is primarily focused along the southern
coast of Jamaica. That's expected from tonight
right through Tuesday morning. The peak surge
heights, the water rise above normally dry ground,
are forecast to reach 9 to 13 feet near and,
again, just east of where the center makes landfall.
Nine to 13 feet above ground level. That's easily
over the roof of a single story house. Easily.
And remember, this surge isn't just still water
rising. It will be accompanied by large, incredibly
destructive waves riding on top of it. It's a
coastal assault that threatens all low -lying
buildings and infrastructure. But here's where
the meteorological analysis gives us a really
vital insight into the specific threat facing
the capital city, Kingston, even if the absolute
eye misses it slightly to the west. Right, we
touched on this earlier, the idea of the storm
surge acting like a plug. Can you explain that
potential hydrologic failure in more detail?
Because it sounds like it could dramatically
worsen flooding in the capital itself. Absolutely.
Think about Kingston Harbour. It's a large south
-facing bay. That orientation makes it inherently
vulnerable to storm surge and wind pushing massive
amounts of seawater inland. Now combine that
with the rainfall potentially up to 40 inches
falling in the mountains that drain towards Kingston.
This enormous volume of freshwater normally flows
down through the capital's gullies, its drainage
infrastructure, and exits into Kingston Harbor.
Okay, makes sense. But when you have a 9 to 13
foot storm surge pushing inland from the sea,
it acts as a literal barrier. A plug is a good
way to think of it. The immense volume of freshwater
runoff pouring down from the hills has nowhere
to go because its exit point, the harbor, is
blocked by seawater being pushed in by the hurricane.
So the rainwater backs up? Dramatically. It backs
up inland, exacerbating the flood potential for
the entire capital area and all the surrounding
low -lying infrastructure. It's a devastating
combination. Coastal inundation from the sea
plus blocked freshwater drainage from inland,
a dual disaster. And that includes critical infrastructure,
like Norman Manley International Airport, right?
It sits right on that peninsula next to the harbor.
Correct. Its location makes it incredibly susceptible
to being completely inundated, potentially shut
down for a very long time by that combined surge
and rainfall flooding. Is there any better news
for other parts of the coast, like the North
Coast tourist areas? Relatively speaking, yes,
the forecast suggests the northwest coast near
places like Montego Bay will likely fare better
in terms of surge. Maybe only one to three feet
of inundation there. However, and this is the
big however, they are still squarely in the path
of the extreme winds and the torrential rainfall.
So while the surge threat might be lower, the
overall danger remains incredibly high across
the entire island. Okay, given this sheer scale
of destruction forecasted the potential for total
structural failure, 40 inches of rain, a 13 -foot
surge preparedness obviously had to shift from
just warnings to mandatory actions quite early.
How comprehensive has the government response
been? The response appears to have been quite
decisive, thankfully. It's been led by the Prime
Minister, who issued mandatory evacuation orders
for the most vulnerable coastal and low -lying
areas several days ago. And this built upon a
foundational step taken back on October 24th
when the government's Office of Disaster Preparedness
and Emergency Management, ODPIM, declared the
entire island a threatened area. ODPIM, that's
the key agency coordinating everything, right?
Exactly. They're the nerve center for the national
response effort. And what key infrastructure
did they preemptively shut down? Declosure orders
have been pretty comprehensive. Both major international
airports, Sangster in Montego Bay and Norman
Manley in Kingston have been ordered closed,
all major seaports too. It essentially locks
down the island to external travel until Melissa
passes. Furthermore, the National Emergency Operations
Center has been fully activated. They've been
working to pre -position crucial supplies like
generators, medical kits, and fuel stocks in
areas they anticipate will be cut off. But the
challenge, as always, is getting people to actually
evacuate, especially from those really vulnerable
coastal spots. We saw reports about communities
like Rocky Point and Portland Cottage in Clarendon.
There was some initial reluctance there. Yes,
that's often the case. There's always some initial
resistance. It might be fear of leaving property
behind, fear of looting, or sometimes just underestimating
the sheer power of the storm. However, in this
case, the rapidly worsening conditions provided
undeniable proof of the danger. Reports started
coming in that Rocky Point was already seeing
significant storm surge flooding. The water was
already coming in. Exactly. And the sea had apparently
begun pushing into Portland Cottage as well.
That visible immediate threat seems to have overcome
much of the initial reluctance. It made staying
simply impossible. And many people did manage
to get out. Yes. Reports indicate that government
-provided transport was utilized, and around
180 residents from those specific areas were
already safely moved to designated shelters,
like Veer Technical High School. But the anxiety
must be immense, especially for people have been
through this before. It's extremely high, and
it's compounded by collective memory, as you
say. Many residents in these vulnerable southern
coastal areas are still struggling to fully rebuild
from the damage caused by Hurricane Barrel back
in 2012. And Barrel was only a category one storm.
Exactly. Only a category one. So now to face
a category five, four categories stronger, it
must feel almost insurmountable for many people.
We saw a really powerful quote that seemed to
capture that vulnerability. It was from a farmer.
in Treasure Beach, San Elizabeth. Yes, that quote
really hit home. That farmer captured the socioeconomic
disparity of the threat perfectly. They expressed
intense fear, especially for neighbors with fragile
housing, you know, zinc roofs, board houses,
or those living right on the water's edge. The
fear they might lose everything. Precisely. The
reality is, a storm like Melissa threatens not
just property, but the entire foundation of people's
lives and livelihoods. Even residents who've
prepared as best they can are facing the prospect
of weeks, maybe months, without basic services.
And with potentially tens of thousands needing
to evacuate, concerns about the safety and conditions
in public shelters inevitably come up. What assurances
did the government, specifically Minister Desmond
McKenzie, provide? Minister McKenzie made a very
public and strong statement. He urged residents
directly not to be crippled by fear and, importantly,
not to listen to rumors about the shelters being
unsafe or poorly equipped. He emphasized that
the 881 -plus designated public shelters across
Jamaica are safe, they are clean, and they are
fully provisioned. He stressed that hygiene standards
are being rigorously maintained. That's crucial
reassurance. What about logistics inside the
shelters? How are they ensuring order and safety?
Well, ODPM and the security forces have established
clear protocols. Each shelter has a dedicated
management team. Critically, to ensure privacy
and security, men and women are housed in separate
areas unless they are part of an immediate family
unit staying together. OK. And importantly, police
patrols will be active in and around the shelter
areas throughout the storm and its aftermath.
So the core message was basically trust the system,
get to safety. It was a straightforward plea
for cooperation. Yes. Lock up your homes as best
you can, take essential supplies, non -perishable
food, water, any prescription medicines you need,
and please use the provided buses to get to the
shelters. The overriding goal, the absolute priority,
is the preservation of life. The message was
crystal clear. We want every single person in
this country to be alive and counted for when
Melissa is over. A stark reminder of the stakes.
Okay, while Melissa's immediate, most devastating
focus is Jamaica, Its influence extends across
the region. It already passed Hispaniola. And
tragically, we have confirmation it's already
claimed lives there. That's correct, unfortunately.
Melissa's passage near Hispaniola last week,
even before reaching this intensity, was tragic.
It's confirmed to have claimed at least three
lives in the Dominican Republic. That includes
two people killed in a severe landslide in an
area called Fontamara, and sadly, a man in his
70s who was killed by a falling tree in Marigot.
Just heartbreaking. And even though the storm
center has moved west, the danger isn't over
for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, is it?
Especially the flooding threat. Not at all, because
the ground is already completely saturated from
the rain they've already received, and the storm
circulation is still throwing moisture back over
the island. Well, catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected to continue across
southwestern Haiti and southern parts of the
Dominican Republic right through the middle of
the week. More rain on top of what they've already
had. Exactly. Forecasters are bracing for potentially
another 8 to 16 inches of rain in some areas.
When you add that to the existing totals, it
means localized storm totals could still push
towards that devastating 40 inch mark in the
hardest hit mountainous regions. And they'll
likely continue to experience tropical storm
conditions there late Tuesday and into Wednesday
as well. OK, so once Melissa finally makes that
predicted northward turn and starts accelerating
away from Jamaica, its next target appears to
be Cuba. for a second major landfall. What's
the timeline look like for that? And which provinces
are in the direct path? Eastern Cuba needs to
rush preparations to completion right now. Melissa
is expected to cross the eastern provinces, specifically
Grima, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin
sometime Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
And the intensity forecast. Still major. Yes.
While it's forecast to weaken slightly after
interacting with Jamaica's mountains, it's still
expected to hit Cuba as a powerful major hurricane,
likely Category 3 strength. Hurricane warnings
have been rushed out for all those provinces,
underscoring the extreme urgency. What are the
primary dangers Cuban authorities are bracing
for? Similar to Jamaica. Very similar primary
threats. Yes. Massive rainfall and life threatening
storm surge. Forecasters are expecting 15 to
20 inches of rainfall across eastern Cuba, which
in mountainous terrain means life threatening,
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides.
Absolutely. That's almost inevitable with those
rainfall amounts on that terrain. And coupled
with the rain is the storm surge threat. It's
forecast to reach seven to 11 feet above normal
tide levels near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. along Cuba's southern
coast. So again, significant infrastructure damage
and potential for coastal communities to be cut
off seems highly likely. Highly likely, yes.
OK, moving beyond Cuba, that accelerated track
then takes Melissa towards the southeastern Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos Islands. That impact
is forecast for Wednesday. Hurricane watches
are already up for the entire region. And while
the storm will be accelerating as it moves off
Cuba and through the Bahamas, moving at a pretty
good clip, as the forecasters say that faster
speed doesn't eliminate the danger. Right, it
just shortens the impact window. Full preparations
are still needed. Absolutely. The window for
preparation is shorter, but the intensity is
still forecast to be significant, likely still
a hurricane, maybe a major one as it passes near
or over them. So what do residents in the Bahamas
and TCI need to have done by Tuesday night? What
are they facing? They need to be prepared for
hurricane conditions. That includes damaging
winds, a life -threatening storm surge, which
is forecast to be around four to six feet above
normally dry ground in surge -prone areas, and
heavy rainfall totals likely between four and
eight inches. Still a significant flood threat,
even with less rain than Jamaica or Cuba. Definitely,
especially on low -lying islands. Preparations
need to be completed very quickly because that
faster forward speed means conditions will deteriorate
rapidly once they start. OK, and finally, we
have to address the lingering question that always
comes up. Could Melissa curve back towards the
US East Coast or what about Bermuda? OK, let's
take Bermuda first. Bermuda could potentially
see the storm pass nearby or in its vicinity
by sometime Thursday night. By that point, Melissa
is forecast to be weaker than it is now, but
likely still at hurricane strength. So residents
in Bermuda absolutely need to be monitoring the
forecast very closely and ensure their preparations
are ready for a possible close call or even a
direct impact. Okay, monitor closely in Bermuda
and the U .S. East Coast. For the U .S. East
Coast, the analysis thankfully looks very reassuring
at this point. The research strongly indicates
that the pattern setting up over North America,
specifically strong autumn cold fronts sweeping
across the continent, will act as a protective
barrier. How so? These fronts and the strong
westerly winds associated with them will effectively
capture Melissa and steer it sharply out to sea
towards the northeast and eventually east northeast.
They'll recurve into the open Atlantic. Exactly.
The consensus is high that Melissa will recurve
well offshore and will not pose a direct threat
to the continental U .S. East Coast. Okay, that's
certainly some welcome news in a very dire situation
overall. So wrapping up our analysis today, it
really confirms the extreme gravity of Hurricane
Melissa. We've synthesized these almost unbelievable
data points. 175 mile per hour winds, a crawl
speed of just three miles per hour initially,
the potential for 40 inches of rain, a 13 -foot
storm surge that could block drainage for a capital
city. The immediate overriding message for everyone
in Jamaica, especially those in vulnerable areas
has to remain the same. Please heed the official
warnings, get to the designated shelters if ordered,
and prioritize preserving life above absolutely
everything else right now. And what's really
fascinating or perhaps terrifying from a meteorological
standpoint is how it's not just one factor, it's
the convergence. It's the extreme intensity as
a starting point, yes, but then it's the slow
movement magnifying the rainfall duration, the
mountains dramatically enhancing that rainfall,
and then that specific dangerous hydrological
feedback loop, the surge blocking the fresh water
drainage in densely populated areas like Kingston.
That whole combination creates this multi -layered,
almost existential threat to infrastructure and
safety. It points towards unprecedented and likely
very long lasting damage. The sheer complexity
of trying to coordinate a response against that
kind of compounding disaster when power, communications,
transport could all fail simultaneously across
wide areas. It's just staggering to contemplate.
It really is. And this brings up an important
question, something maybe for you, the listener,
to think about as this unfolds. The research
we've looked at heavily emphasizes the near certainty
of long -lasting infrastructure failure. That
means many communities will be isolated, perhaps
for days, maybe even weeks, before significant
government aid can reach them. So given that
reality, what immediate non -governmental resources
should people in potentially isolated communities
prioritize right now or have on hand generally
for resilience? You mean beyond the official
shelters and aid? Thinking about self -reliance?
Exactly. We're talking about maximizing self
-reliance and community resilience from the ground
up. What local sustainable solutions become absolutely
essential for survival during that extended recovery
period when the power lines are down, the roads
are washed out, and help is still far away? Something
to really mull over. A crucial question indeed.
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